June 9, 2026 • 17 mins
On this special episode of the Merryn Talks Money markets wrap, hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek discuss the SpaceX IPO. How can UK investors get access? Do the numbers add up? Why will it make life more complicated for passive investors? And what are the implications for the long queue of AI IPOs still to come, and for wider markets?
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to another emergency
episode of the Marin Talks Money Market rap wh We
talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
And what is driving them.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
I am Maren thum zep Web that is Writt Large
for Bloomberg UK Wealth.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
And I'm joined Stevick's, senior reporter for Bloomberg and author
of the Money Distilled News.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Later, John, the reason for this podcast we emergency and listen.
I'm not going I'm actually not going to tell people
what this emergency podcast is about quite yet. I'm going
to do it another way. I'm going to say to you, John,
what do you think I did? Five minutes before I
pressed the button to log on to chat to you?
Speaker 2 (00:53):
What do you think I did?
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Did you press the back signal from an emergency podcast
untalked money?
Speaker 1 (01:01):
Sure? I don't know why you can't guess this because
I did the same thing as everybody across the country
is doing today and will do tomorrow if they don't.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Leave it too late. I have sent my application for
SpaceX shares excellent, That's what I like to hear.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
I know I've used Hargri's landsdown and I've very carefully
read all the stuff. I've read the bit about is
the is the SpaceX IPO right for you? I'm none
the wiser by the time I've finished reading that. I've
read the bit about you know, my W eight B
and form et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And I've
read the bit how there are lots of risks and
I might not make any money and indeed I might
(01:37):
lose all my money And do you know what, I've
done it anyway, And I've done it because I just
want to be involved. I mean, I got I spoke
to Anna McDonald, who is the and the CIO head
of investment at Hargri's Landsdowne earlier and she said very firmly,
She's like, FOMO is not an investment strategy.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
But do you know, I imply for the minimum maybe
it did well well.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
So that's the resonn thing I recommendation.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
No, it absolutely is not a resounding by recommendation.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
What is this is for the purplicies of John lawis ticket.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
This is for the journalistic integrity.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
We don't like to talk about anything we haven't tried ourselves.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
And also you know, I very carefully bought bitcoins so
I could say that I was participating, and may I
say you did not. And I'm also getting the impression
from you that you have not yet applied for your
SpaceX chess.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
I feel I would have a few more hoops to
jump through, so so I probably point. But yeah, I
think it's not I think that it's good to see
how the actual men say that these things wants for deafinite.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
I mean, I'm afraid it's too easy.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
It's far too It's quite simple, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
It takes about twenty seconds, and so if you do
want them, you know, you can just go get them.
All the big platforms in the UK and in the
US have a way for you to apply for SpaceX chess.
Now you won't know how many shairs you're going to get.
You only even know the price until they hit your
portfolio on Friday morning. So I mean, I do think
that that is a strange thing for anyone to do.
(03:09):
It's impossible to value companies like this. The valuation rests
on forecasts made out over five, ten, fifteen years. They
rest on the revenues for SpaceX coming not so much
from its space business, which is. Of course you have
Spectacular by the way, Spectacular it absolutely dominates the launch
business in the US and hence globally. The statistic on that,
(03:32):
I thought there were one hundred and ninety nine space
launches licensed in the US last year, and SpaceX did
one hundred and sixty one of them, so shoo, yeah,
eighty ofcent plus absolutely dominate that market. And then they've
got Starlink, which we're using right now, by the way,
which is the bit that nine thousand satellites there. That's
the bit that actually brings in the money, right, not
(03:52):
enough money, but money. And then that's Britter x, which
of course is our natural home. You and I you're
better on it than I am. And then of course
there's XAI, which is is the croc chatbot. So what
we're being asked to believe now is that this is
not a space company so much as an AI company,
and the combination of space and AI is is the magic.
(04:15):
You can have data centers in space, solar power, don't
need to worry about all that pesky cooling and infrastructure,
and this is it. That's what that's what we're being
asked to buy into, right yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
I mean it's a lot of hope basically, which is
can it traditionally been what you learn musk trades in.
I mean, I'm always have going to look at a
couple of valuations from relatively sensible people this morning, and
I mean it varies a lot, I mean moren start
of valuation where they said they can it is about
(04:45):
what's about seven hundred and eighty billion, which is about
half or you know what Elin's looking for. Whereas as
Worth the Moiderine, who is an excellent can analyst, and
the Stacey is a very clever guy. I would say
it's pretty good you in these Blue Sky companies because
he's quite open minded, but he's also not, you know,
not stupid. And he put about one in a quarter
(05:07):
trillion to maybe one point three to five trillion order
as a sort of feasible kind of thing, but obviously
saying but it's still a lot more expensive than that,
so it's more he would probably wait until it had
you know, dropped a bit after the IBO, and then
he would maybe consider it. But I think that, I mean,
I think that shows you that this isn't something that
(05:29):
you would buy now based on the fundamentals, because based
on tell me, well, I know, I know, man, you'd
say you should have phoned me before you make these
kinds of decisions. We come on, Yeah, you can't do
it based on the fundamentals. It's basically based on the
idea that they're cony be able to hype this up
so much. And to be fair, they've got almost every
(05:51):
investment bank in you know, in the US kind of
working on the deal. Most of the indices of essentially
agreed that they'll take SpaceX, but with a notable exception
the S and P, which is, you know, I think
it's quite a big deal and actually quite an interesting
thing for passive investing overall, because that's going to represent
(06:13):
a real kind of Bui furcation. Yeah, you know, it's
it's a real decision point for you. Now whether you
buy a passive US tracker that doesn't have SpaceX in
it or one that does. And also SpaceX isn't the
only one. There's quite a few big guys.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
It doesn't brings us back, John, doesn't it That whole
question that we've been asking, is this such a thing
as a passive.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Investment, And of course there isn't.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Now even if you're buying something that supposedly tracks the
S and P. You are effectively making quite a major
active choice. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
I think that's really interesting because the other day I
was chatting to your colleague Sam Mundstad the other day
about this kind of IPO. We were saying, oh, I
wonder if SpaceX might break you know, the past of market,
and in a way, I think this is actually how
it breaks it. It's very clear now that there is
(07:06):
no such thing as a passive investment, but this has
really kind of like hung a label on the fact
that if you if you buy the S and P tracker,
you're getting a very different kind of and and essentially
an actively and a portfolio with a certain layer of
active management on it that you know. I mean to
(07:27):
be clear, I approve of S and P's decision. I
think it's the correct decision. I think the idea that
you know, you should have to have a year or
so of actually being a listed company, even if you're
a huge one, makes a lot of sense. But at
the end of the day, it is there. It's their
active choice. You know, you can equally rationalize as the
Nasdak presumably does that. Well, actually this is a massive stock,
(07:51):
you know, it's significant. Investors will want it in their portfolio.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
You'll portfolio represent the market if you don't have it
in Yeah, So that's the both arguments.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
Can't you Yeah, but that's the points I notice bifocated,
So you know you can't. If you see someone on
invest and passively, I will will watch taper passive. Are
you choosing? And I think that's that's the really what's
interesting behind the philosophical level, it does mean not you
have to think about where your money's going and a
way that perhaps you can have didn't want to, or
(08:24):
you know, you thought it was just an auto pilot.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
I supposely that's that's one thing that we need to
worry about. And then we need to worry about not
just this IPO, but the other mega ipeos that are
(08:47):
coming Anthropic, open AI, etctera and the extent that they
will have both on the market as a whole and
on passive, because suddenly you're going to have even more
concentrated portfolios. If you've got you a PASSIVEVTF on the
S and P five hundred, it's going to be even
more concentrated than it was before. I saw some of
the assuming they all get away as they intend to
(09:08):
get away, you're going to end up with the top
top ten companies taking up pushing fifty percent of the index.
Really really is new and terrifying.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
Yeah, and I mean when you think about it, So
the most volatile index this year has been South Korean
Cotsby index. The courseby dropped about nine percent on this morning.
That's what recording this on Wendy. And that's because everyone
was freaking out a about the US, possibly reason interest
rates because they cannap jobs figures want better than expected.
(09:41):
But that index is about fifty sixty percent is two
chip makers. But if you're talking about like the US,
which obviously is a much more globally significant index, having
the top ten amounting to about sixty fifty sixty percent,
I mean you are starting to get on for the
kind of concentration that leads to the kind of volatility
(10:04):
that we're seeing in the cost By index. So again,
I think that's a pretty interesting side effect. I think
this is also I don't know this is before we
look at the fact that the hyperscalers as in basically
the magnificence it's not quite the Magnificent seven, but all
the big tech companies are now I said, well, Google
(10:25):
or alphabet rather is looking to raise eighty five billion
in new shares from next quarter to spend on investing
in AHI. And then there was a rumor at the
weekend at Facebook owner Meta is hoping to do the
same thing. So if they are all flooding the marketway
equity issuance as well, you've got to think that part
(10:46):
of the reason that markets have gone up so much
is because they've been getting smaller. But now we're actually that's.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
Changing the equatization.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
For years, we've been saying, you know, a supplier is falling,
demand is rising, and that's one of the things pushing
the market up. And now suddenly we have this insanely
huge influx of IPOs and other issuance. Is there really
enough cash to absorb all this and so that's your
your first question, is there actually enough customers? But at
all is the volatility that we're already seeing. You know,
(11:17):
you talked about the concerns about US rates, et cetera.
But there's also a suggestion that what you've seen as
people beginning to pull some cash out of other markets
in order to have it ready for the big I
pos so you see you begin to see perhaps a
rotation as well from inside technology, from already listed companies
(11:38):
to companies that are about to be listed, et cetera.
There's a there's a lot going on here. It's very
hard to see exactly how it's going to play out
over a couple of the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
Yeah, I mean, I suppose that's there's a sense because
that's another tech company for this APO talk so this morning,
the one that's bending spoons, which is not so well
in the wine, but it owns things like an EO
L and some all sort of Internet properties that it
now basically just makes money from sort of subscription type thing.
I think it's the biggest holding in the Shalian Billy
(12:09):
Gifford Private Capital Private.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Assets, which also has SpaceX, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
Yeah, it's also good SpaceX and that thing's got a
bit of anthropy because well and Stripe. But a lot
of the interesting ones that are about to go public
at some point. The point is just kind of a
sense that they're all going, oh, we need to get
in here before all the money's.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Gone quickly, don't you before?
Speaker 3 (12:33):
Yeah, and you do wonder it's like, well, this is kind.
This is again classic top of the market behavior, even
though you know you kind of hesitate to say it
because you don't want people say okay, better all go
to cash and then everything just keeps going up. But
the point is if you did look back in like
(12:54):
five years time and say, oh, yeah, that was the
top of the market because everyone was rushing to get
out fast before things tipped over. So this is sort
of like classic topy behavior.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Yeah yeah, Well, as we say, you your purctase is
their exit?
Speaker 3 (13:10):
Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean they're telling a lot of
these people clearly though they've been sitting on millions and
millions of dollars. And certainly if it was me and
I was like employee number whatever twelve at SpaceX, I've
been sitting there on generational wealth and I'm about to
have the chance to get out, I'm not you know,
(13:30):
I'm not going to carry on staying there. As soon
as that lockup is done, I'm pressing and sell on
my you know, lines down account.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
And crucially, the key question then is when do the
lookups end for insiders? For SpaceX employees, they're shorter than usual,
aren't they, So I think they'll be coming up towards
the end of the year September through December.
Speaker 3 (13:54):
I think there's quite a few different stages because I think,
like I mean, like Elo and Musk, I don't think
obviously I think he he's basically got to keep his
for a long time. But I think that six months
for most of the other low cups. And then there's
also there's like family and friends who I don't think
of getting a lock up at all, And you can
read around it a bit more closely, but but there's
(14:16):
definitely there's going to be dribs and drabs of that's
hitting the market. Yeah, for a prolonged period.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
C I would say dribs and drabs might be minimalizing
a little.
Speaker 4 (14:25):
John Well, I.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
Don't like to sensationalize these things. No, No, you know
that obviously.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Absolutely anyway, So we will see, but everyone everyone can
can know that I will be holding.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
I don't know, let's see what I get, right, this
is exciting.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Well, but I'll let you know on Twitter on Friday
how how much space X makes it into my portfolio.
And then I'll be able to either mock John because
I'm richer than him, or he'll be up to mock
me because they fall thirty percent on the day and
I'm poorer than him. Because that's how this podcast works.
I will just say before we finished on that, you
(15:03):
know I did as I said. I spoke to anam
do Hargris lamsdown about this earlier and as she pointed out,
FOMO is not an investment strategy. And you know, they
have been very clear about their messaging. And I think
all the platforms, all the platforms have so if you
go and look at any of the platforms where you're
thinking about buying, there's a lot of educational content on
all the platforms to try and help you work your
way around it.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
And if you are interested.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
In it, particularly if you are a new investor, because
I do think this is the kind of IBA that
might stop bringing in some people who think, well, I've
never invested before, but this is so exciting, I've got
to have a piece of it. If you are really
important that you read around it, think about it quite
a lot, and do remember that it's mostly in fact,
I'm going to say mostly always better to have a
diversified portfolio than not to have a diversified portfolio.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Is that fair?
Speaker 3 (15:48):
Not definitely? And actually there's one statistic that I wouldn't
man can mention them before we call. There was an
interesting to you all I saw from Brent Donelli Spectral Market,
and he kind of like picked up on this list
that someone else had done, which was the largest IPOs
of the last twenty years. So like about I think
there were about thirty odds to them in the list,
(16:10):
and he looked at the price at which they closed
that on the IPO day, and then he looked at
what was the maximum draw down within a year, So
what was the biggest drop at any point from that,
And every single one of them had gone lower at
least at some point during that next twelve months, and
(16:30):
the minimum kind of dropped was twenty percent and the
maximum drop was ninety percent. And the ninety percent was
actually for Robin Hood, you know, the American Investment platform,
and obviously that's very successful now and it's you know,
it's trading much much higher than this IPO price. But
the point is, for every single one of these IPOs,
you got a better opportunity somewhere within the next twelve
(16:53):
months to buy it. Yeah, So I think that's the
other thing he remember is like like frequently no IPOs
might pop on the but then they quite often can
retreat again quite quietly by the.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
So okay, thank you John, good point.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
You're very well be be sale too late for me,
now do for me.
Speaker 4 (17:18):
Thanks for listening this wish Marrin talks Money Debrief. If
you like our show, rate review, and subscribe wherever you
listen to podcasts, also be shorts. Follow me and John
on ex or Twitter at marinas w and John Underscore
step Backs. This episode was produced by Some Society, production
support and sound designed by Moses and Questions and comments
on this show and.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
All our shows are always welcome. Our show email is
Merri Money at Bloomberg dot net and we would ticularly
like davrom you, if you, like me, have decided to
have a little space ex in your portfolio
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to another emergency
episode of the Marin Talks Money Market rap wh We
talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
And what is driving them.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
I am Maren thum zep Web that is Writt Large
for Bloomberg UK Wealth.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
And I'm joined Stevick's, senior reporter for Bloomberg and author
of the Money Distilled News.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Later, John, the reason for this podcast we emergency and listen.
I'm not going I'm actually not going to tell people
what this emergency podcast is about quite yet. I'm going
to do it another way. I'm going to say to you, John,
what do you think I did? Five minutes before I
pressed the button to log on to chat to you?
Speaker 2 (00:53):
What do you think I did?
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Did you press the back signal from an emergency podcast
untalked money?
Speaker 1 (01:01):
Sure? I don't know why you can't guess this because
I did the same thing as everybody across the country
is doing today and will do tomorrow if they don't.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Leave it too late. I have sent my application for
SpaceX shares excellent, That's what I like to hear.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
I know I've used Hargri's landsdown and I've very carefully
read all the stuff. I've read the bit about is
the is the SpaceX IPO right for you? I'm none
the wiser by the time I've finished reading that. I've
read the bit about you know, my W eight B
and form et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And I've
read the bit how there are lots of risks and
I might not make any money and indeed I might
(01:37):
lose all my money And do you know what, I've
done it anyway, And I've done it because I just
want to be involved. I mean, I got I spoke
to Anna McDonald, who is the and the CIO head
of investment at Hargri's Landsdowne earlier and she said very firmly,
She's like, FOMO is not an investment strategy.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
But do you know, I imply for the minimum maybe
it did well well.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
So that's the resonn thing I recommendation.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
No, it absolutely is not a resounding by recommendation.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
What is this is for the purplicies of John lawis ticket.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
This is for the journalistic integrity.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
We don't like to talk about anything we haven't tried ourselves.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
And also you know, I very carefully bought bitcoins so
I could say that I was participating, and may I
say you did not. And I'm also getting the impression
from you that you have not yet applied for your
SpaceX chess.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
I feel I would have a few more hoops to
jump through, so so I probably point. But yeah, I
think it's not I think that it's good to see
how the actual men say that these things wants for deafinite.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
I mean, I'm afraid it's too easy.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
It's far too It's quite simple, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
It takes about twenty seconds, and so if you do
want them, you know, you can just go get them.
All the big platforms in the UK and in the
US have a way for you to apply for SpaceX chess.
Now you won't know how many shairs you're going to get.
You only even know the price until they hit your
portfolio on Friday morning. So I mean, I do think
that that is a strange thing for anyone to do.
(03:09):
It's impossible to value companies like this. The valuation rests
on forecasts made out over five, ten, fifteen years. They
rest on the revenues for SpaceX coming not so much
from its space business, which is. Of course you have
Spectacular by the way, Spectacular it absolutely dominates the launch
business in the US and hence globally. The statistic on that,
(03:32):
I thought there were one hundred and ninety nine space
launches licensed in the US last year, and SpaceX did
one hundred and sixty one of them, so shoo, yeah,
eighty ofcent plus absolutely dominate that market. And then they've
got Starlink, which we're using right now, by the way,
which is the bit that nine thousand satellites there. That's
the bit that actually brings in the money, right, not
(03:52):
enough money, but money. And then that's Britter x, which
of course is our natural home. You and I you're
better on it than I am. And then of course
there's XAI, which is is the croc chatbot. So what
we're being asked to believe now is that this is
not a space company so much as an AI company,
and the combination of space and AI is is the magic.
(04:15):
You can have data centers in space, solar power, don't
need to worry about all that pesky cooling and infrastructure,
and this is it. That's what that's what we're being
asked to buy into, right yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
I mean it's a lot of hope basically, which is
can it traditionally been what you learn musk trades in.
I mean, I'm always have going to look at a
couple of valuations from relatively sensible people this morning, and
I mean it varies a lot, I mean moren start
of valuation where they said they can it is about
(04:45):
what's about seven hundred and eighty billion, which is about
half or you know what Elin's looking for. Whereas as
Worth the Moiderine, who is an excellent can analyst, and
the Stacey is a very clever guy. I would say
it's pretty good you in these Blue Sky companies because
he's quite open minded, but he's also not, you know,
not stupid. And he put about one in a quarter
(05:07):
trillion to maybe one point three to five trillion order
as a sort of feasible kind of thing, but obviously
saying but it's still a lot more expensive than that,
so it's more he would probably wait until it had
you know, dropped a bit after the IBO, and then
he would maybe consider it. But I think that, I mean,
I think that shows you that this isn't something that
(05:29):
you would buy now based on the fundamentals, because based
on tell me, well, I know, I know, man, you'd
say you should have phoned me before you make these
kinds of decisions. We come on, Yeah, you can't do
it based on the fundamentals. It's basically based on the
idea that they're cony be able to hype this up
so much. And to be fair, they've got almost every
(05:51):
investment bank in you know, in the US kind of
working on the deal. Most of the indices of essentially
agreed that they'll take SpaceX, but with a notable exception
the S and P, which is, you know, I think
it's quite a big deal and actually quite an interesting
thing for passive investing overall, because that's going to represent
(06:13):
a real kind of Bui furcation. Yeah, you know, it's
it's a real decision point for you. Now whether you
buy a passive US tracker that doesn't have SpaceX in
it or one that does. And also SpaceX isn't the
only one. There's quite a few big guys.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
It doesn't brings us back, John, doesn't it That whole
question that we've been asking, is this such a thing
as a passive.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Investment, And of course there isn't.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Now even if you're buying something that supposedly tracks the
S and P. You are effectively making quite a major
active choice. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
I think that's really interesting because the other day I
was chatting to your colleague Sam Mundstad the other day
about this kind of IPO. We were saying, oh, I
wonder if SpaceX might break you know, the past of market,
and in a way, I think this is actually how
it breaks it. It's very clear now that there is
(07:06):
no such thing as a passive investment, but this has
really kind of like hung a label on the fact
that if you if you buy the S and P tracker,
you're getting a very different kind of and and essentially
an actively and a portfolio with a certain layer of
active management on it that you know. I mean to
(07:27):
be clear, I approve of S and P's decision. I
think it's the correct decision. I think the idea that
you know, you should have to have a year or
so of actually being a listed company, even if you're
a huge one, makes a lot of sense. But at
the end of the day, it is there. It's their
active choice. You know, you can equally rationalize as the
Nasdak presumably does that. Well, actually this is a massive stock,
(07:51):
you know, it's significant. Investors will want it in their portfolio.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
You'll portfolio represent the market if you don't have it
in Yeah, So that's the both arguments.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
Can't you Yeah, but that's the points I notice bifocated,
So you know you can't. If you see someone on
invest and passively, I will will watch taper passive. Are
you choosing? And I think that's that's the really what's
interesting behind the philosophical level, it does mean not you
have to think about where your money's going and a
way that perhaps you can have didn't want to, or
(08:24):
you know, you thought it was just an auto pilot.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
I supposely that's that's one thing that we need to
worry about. And then we need to worry about not
just this IPO, but the other mega ipeos that are
(08:47):
coming Anthropic, open AI, etctera and the extent that they
will have both on the market as a whole and
on passive, because suddenly you're going to have even more
concentrated portfolios. If you've got you a PASSIVEVTF on the
S and P five hundred, it's going to be even
more concentrated than it was before. I saw some of
the assuming they all get away as they intend to
(09:08):
get away, you're going to end up with the top
top ten companies taking up pushing fifty percent of the index.
Really really is new and terrifying.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
Yeah, and I mean when you think about it, So
the most volatile index this year has been South Korean
Cotsby index. The courseby dropped about nine percent on this morning.
That's what recording this on Wendy. And that's because everyone
was freaking out a about the US, possibly reason interest
rates because they cannap jobs figures want better than expected.
(09:41):
But that index is about fifty sixty percent is two
chip makers. But if you're talking about like the US,
which obviously is a much more globally significant index, having
the top ten amounting to about sixty fifty sixty percent,
I mean you are starting to get on for the
kind of concentration that leads to the kind of volatility
(10:04):
that we're seeing in the cost By index. So again,
I think that's a pretty interesting side effect. I think
this is also I don't know this is before we
look at the fact that the hyperscalers as in basically
the magnificence it's not quite the Magnificent seven, but all
the big tech companies are now I said, well, Google
(10:25):
or alphabet rather is looking to raise eighty five billion
in new shares from next quarter to spend on investing
in AHI. And then there was a rumor at the
weekend at Facebook owner Meta is hoping to do the
same thing. So if they are all flooding the marketway
equity issuance as well, you've got to think that part
(10:46):
of the reason that markets have gone up so much
is because they've been getting smaller. But now we're actually that's.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
Changing the equatization.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
For years, we've been saying, you know, a supplier is falling,
demand is rising, and that's one of the things pushing
the market up. And now suddenly we have this insanely
huge influx of IPOs and other issuance. Is there really
enough cash to absorb all this and so that's your
your first question, is there actually enough customers? But at
all is the volatility that we're already seeing. You know,
(11:17):
you talked about the concerns about US rates, et cetera.
But there's also a suggestion that what you've seen as
people beginning to pull some cash out of other markets
in order to have it ready for the big I
pos so you see you begin to see perhaps a
rotation as well from inside technology, from already listed companies
(11:38):
to companies that are about to be listed, et cetera.
There's a there's a lot going on here. It's very
hard to see exactly how it's going to play out
over a couple of the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
Yeah, I mean, I suppose that's there's a sense because
that's another tech company for this APO talk so this morning,
the one that's bending spoons, which is not so well
in the wine, but it owns things like an EO
L and some all sort of Internet properties that it
now basically just makes money from sort of subscription type thing.
I think it's the biggest holding in the Shalian Billy
(12:09):
Gifford Private Capital Private.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Assets, which also has SpaceX, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
Yeah, it's also good SpaceX and that thing's got a
bit of anthropy because well and Stripe. But a lot
of the interesting ones that are about to go public
at some point. The point is just kind of a
sense that they're all going, oh, we need to get
in here before all the money's.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Gone quickly, don't you before?
Speaker 3 (12:33):
Yeah, and you do wonder it's like, well, this is kind.
This is again classic top of the market behavior, even
though you know you kind of hesitate to say it
because you don't want people say okay, better all go
to cash and then everything just keeps going up. But
the point is if you did look back in like
(12:54):
five years time and say, oh, yeah, that was the
top of the market because everyone was rushing to get
out fast before things tipped over. So this is sort
of like classic topy behavior.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Yeah yeah, Well, as we say, you your purctase is
their exit?
Speaker 3 (13:10):
Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean they're telling a lot of
these people clearly though they've been sitting on millions and
millions of dollars. And certainly if it was me and
I was like employee number whatever twelve at SpaceX, I've
been sitting there on generational wealth and I'm about to
have the chance to get out, I'm not you know,
(13:30):
I'm not going to carry on staying there. As soon
as that lockup is done, I'm pressing and sell on
my you know, lines down account.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
And crucially, the key question then is when do the
lookups end for insiders? For SpaceX employees, they're shorter than usual,
aren't they, So I think they'll be coming up towards
the end of the year September through December.
Speaker 3 (13:54):
I think there's quite a few different stages because I think,
like I mean, like Elo and Musk, I don't think
obviously I think he he's basically got to keep his
for a long time. But I think that six months
for most of the other low cups. And then there's
also there's like family and friends who I don't think
of getting a lock up at all, And you can
read around it a bit more closely, but but there's
(14:16):
definitely there's going to be dribs and drabs of that's
hitting the market. Yeah, for a prolonged period.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
C I would say dribs and drabs might be minimalizing
a little.
Speaker 4 (14:25):
John Well, I.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
Don't like to sensationalize these things. No, No, you know
that obviously.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Absolutely anyway, So we will see, but everyone everyone can
can know that I will be holding.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
I don't know, let's see what I get, right, this
is exciting.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Well, but I'll let you know on Twitter on Friday
how how much space X makes it into my portfolio.
And then I'll be able to either mock John because
I'm richer than him, or he'll be up to mock
me because they fall thirty percent on the day and
I'm poorer than him. Because that's how this podcast works.
I will just say before we finished on that, you
(15:03):
know I did as I said. I spoke to anam
do Hargris lamsdown about this earlier and as she pointed out,
FOMO is not an investment strategy. And you know, they
have been very clear about their messaging. And I think
all the platforms, all the platforms have so if you
go and look at any of the platforms where you're
thinking about buying, there's a lot of educational content on
all the platforms to try and help you work your
way around it.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
And if you are interested.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
In it, particularly if you are a new investor, because
I do think this is the kind of IBA that
might stop bringing in some people who think, well, I've
never invested before, but this is so exciting, I've got
to have a piece of it. If you are really
important that you read around it, think about it quite
a lot, and do remember that it's mostly in fact,
I'm going to say mostly always better to have a
diversified portfolio than not to have a diversified portfolio.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Is that fair?
Speaker 3 (15:48):
Not definitely? And actually there's one statistic that I wouldn't
man can mention them before we call. There was an
interesting to you all I saw from Brent Donelli Spectral Market,
and he kind of like picked up on this list
that someone else had done, which was the largest IPOs
of the last twenty years. So like about I think
there were about thirty odds to them in the list,
(16:10):
and he looked at the price at which they closed
that on the IPO day, and then he looked at
what was the maximum draw down within a year, So
what was the biggest drop at any point from that,
And every single one of them had gone lower at
least at some point during that next twelve months, and
(16:30):
the minimum kind of dropped was twenty percent and the
maximum drop was ninety percent. And the ninety percent was
actually for Robin Hood, you know, the American Investment platform,
and obviously that's very successful now and it's you know,
it's trading much much higher than this IPO price. But
the point is, for every single one of these IPOs,
you got a better opportunity somewhere within the next twelve
(16:53):
months to buy it. Yeah, So I think that's the
other thing he remember is like like frequently no IPOs
might pop on the but then they quite often can
retreat again quite quietly by the.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
So okay, thank you John, good point.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
You're very well be be sale too late for me,
now do for me.
Speaker 4 (17:18):
Thanks for listening this wish Marrin talks Money Debrief. If
you like our show, rate review, and subscribe wherever you
listen to podcasts, also be shorts. Follow me and John
on ex or Twitter at marinas w and John Underscore
step Backs. This episode was produced by Some Society, production
support and sound designed by Moses and Questions and comments
on this show and.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
All our shows are always welcome. Our show email is
Merri Money at Bloomberg dot net and we would ticularly
like davrom you, if you, like me, have decided to
have a little space ex in your portfolio
Host
Merryn Somerset Webb
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