July 13, 2026 • 26 mins
MLB betting expert Sean Zerillo is back to break down the 2026 MLB All-Star festivities with his favorite bets and projections. Sean dives into the Home Run Derby, shares where he's finding value, and gives out his best bets for Tuesday's All-Star Game. From Derby picks to All-Star Game wagers, tune in to hear how Sean is attacking baseball's biggest midseason showcase. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page so you don't miss our live shows every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
2 - HR DERBY
21 - ALL STAR GAME
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
What's that flying a tight ball? No crying, and this
game's underway in the springs. Stop bringing Josh the bit
out of sign. Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield
by Castiano, so it will be a home run. Wow.
(00:24):
Hello dude, coming um, you talk about a roll of
the dice, this is it. Here's the payoff pitch. Hello,
I'm welcome Playoff Pitch Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
I'm Sean Zerulo, joined today by No One flying solo
yet again as they break down the twenty twenty six
home run Derby. Also going to give you my projections
(00:45):
and bets for the twenty twenty six Major League Baseball
All Star Game. With this new season underway, we're looking
for those five star reviews. We'll pick out some of
our favorites and send out Action swag. Say whatever you want,
as long as it's five stars for chants to win
some Action Network merch. And with that, let's go through
the eight hitter field for the twenty twenty six MLB
(01:08):
Home Run Derby, going down on Monday night in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania,
eight pm on Netflix this year in a new format,
going to be swing efficiency based because the hitters are
going to get a minimum of twenty swings in the
first round fifteen of both the semifinals and the finals.
The caveat being if they hit a home run on
(01:31):
their final swing, they get to keep swinging until they
don't hit one out. So if you happen to cluster
your home runs near the end, if you save your
energy for the end of year round, you hit one
out on the final out or on the final swing allotted,
you keep going until you stop hitting them. First round
tiebreak is going to be decided by home run distance.
(01:54):
If there is a tie break in the semifinal or
the final, they will go to a three swing off,
but no bracket format in the first round this year.
The top four of the eight will advance to the
second round. The first seed will play the fourth seed
in the semifinal two versus three, and then the winners
(02:14):
of those bracket matchups will advance to the finals. So
no no bracket for the first round does go to
a bracket for these second and third rounds. Now, in
order to try to quantify this field a little bit better,
I back tested a bunch of different data points relative
to the stackcast era home run Derby. So this is
(02:35):
only twenty sixteen to present. Just the pitch tracking era
ran through about twenty five to thirty different data points
on top of just measuring season to date performance, et
cetera to judge this field against one another and ended
up with some interesting findings, the key of which is
(02:55):
maximum megs velocity kind of carries the day in turn
of the stackass metrics. Now, max TV is something we've
talked about regularly on the show in terms of being
the best measure of power ceiling for a hitter. Once
a hitter kind of raises their max TV within a
statistically relevant sample, it just puts a higher grade on
(03:17):
what their future power upside is likely to be. The
harder you hit a ball, the more you're likely to
hit home runs in the future. Now, the most interesting
aspect about max EV. The leader in maximum egs of
velocity over the past thirty days leading up to the
derby has won the Derby outright five out of nine times.
(03:40):
So just being the guy who hits the ball the
hardest in the thirty days leading up to the derby
has been more than a fifty percent chance at predicting
the winner. Your hardest hitter going into this derby over
the past thirty days and also for the full season
is Junior Caminero one. Sixteen point nine is his max TV.
Jordan Walker is right behind him at once again teen
(04:00):
point six. But some other interesting data points worth noting
about max EV. Six out of the nine Stackcast winning
ERA winners ranked top two in the field in MAXIV
going to the derby. Seven of the nine ranked in
the top four. The max EV leader in the field
that reached the finals six times out of the nine years,
(04:21):
they also advanced past the first round seven times, and
then across fifty five racket head to head matchups, each
standard deviation of maximum EV added roughly seventeen points of
I applied win probability to the eventual outcome. So it
is largely the driver for what ends up leading to
derby's success, and it is largely the driver for what
(04:45):
ends up leading to the derby winner. There are some
caveats you can carve out. No player who ranked in
the bottom of the field in any of the Stackcast
data points that I alluded to has won the derby.
Now that is across a lot of different data points,
and the two guys who get knocked out here on
that criteria, Ben Rice, who's last in the field in
(05:07):
max ev EV fifty maximum distance average home run distance,
and then Bryce Harper, who also has the worst thirty
day MAXIV going in to this derby and ranks is
one of the two oldest hitters in the field. Now.
Age has also been particularly disqualifying in past Derby's. I
do think that is partially due to the fact that
(05:27):
these guys were just allowed to swing as much as
they wanted within the allotted time, and I do think
the older players were gassing themselves out a little bit.
The only player older than thirty to make the finals
was ta Oskar Hernandez in twenty twenty four. The average
age for the winners is younger than the average age
for the field. But I do think, you know, without
(05:50):
a pitchclock this year, making it more swing oriented, it
does open it up for an older competitor to potentially
not tire themselves out in the first shround, first or
two rounds and potentially win. But just kind of putting
all those data points together, be in the top half
of the field, the max EV don't be among the
(06:10):
two oldest hitters in the field. And don't rank blast
in the field in any stack Gass category. If you
had to use those three filters over the past nine years,
you would have gotten seven to the nine winners. You
would have filtered down to about two and a half
hitters per year, and it would have selected seven to
nine winners. The only two would have missed on Tasker Hernandez,
who basically defies all prior Derby data points in twenty nineteen,
(06:34):
I believe I was twenty twenty four, and Thenjan Soto
in twenty twenty two, when he was injured and going
into the Derby, his stackass data had just kind of
bottomed out for his career that year, was healthy for
the Derby, was not healthy over the three months leading
into the Derby, and I think his sample kind of
got skewed. So largely it does seem like these data
points are very predictive in terms of filtering for the winner,
(06:57):
the one guy or the two guys who fall outside
of the top four here in max TV who don't qualify.
Kyle Schuber s fifth and I believe munatakamer Kami is
seventh in maxim megs of velocity, so they just fall
outside for that reason contrerorists falls off on age. Ben Rice,
as I said, falls off because he's outside the top four,
(07:20):
and then he's also last in different categories. Bryce Harper
doesn't qualify because of age and also the fact that
he's lower on Max TV. So again, putting that all together,
filtering those for those three things, you're left with three
guys Junior Camen Era, Jordan Walker, and Jack Kaglion. Now,
in terms of how I modeled this out and what
(07:42):
else matters doesn't matter, I found that season production, how
good you've been lately at hitting home runs, your home
runs per five ball, home runs per PA over the
preceding thirty days, whether you go first or second in
the bracket, none of that has really mattered. I think
the most interesting aspect that, obvi is the bracket matchup
stuff setting a target or allowing your opponent to set
(08:04):
a target in front of you being the more rusted
guy because you have more home runs. It hasn't been
indicative of picking winners once you get to the bracket
stage in the derby. In fact, the guy who hit
second in the derby in bracket matchups has only one
forty nine percent of the time, so the added rest
and the target chasing did not pride any sort of boost.
Home crowd hasn't really been a boost either. Bryce Harper
(08:25):
did win in twenty eighteen in Washington, DC, but every
other competitor I believe in the Stackass era. The other
six who competed in front of their home crowds all
exited in round one, so worth noting for both Kyle
Schwarber and Bryce Harper For tonight's Derby. The stuff that's
most inconclusive is the bat tracking data and the stuff
that we only have about a couple of years of
(08:46):
background on batspeed squared up, blast swing length. These since
they were introduced have correlated pretty highly and higher than
other stackass data points to picking winners and defining Derby success.
We just only have two years of a data sample
to be able to judge these Derby fields against so
I want more data. I do factor in some of
(09:07):
those data points due to the fact that they have
been very predictive inside of two years, or at least
more predicted than other data points, just not factoring in
as much fully as they may a year or two
for now now Derby experience I think matters as well
returneys won twenty one percent of the time versus eight
percent for debutantes and players with prior finals experience, which
(09:30):
applies to Junior Caminero, Bryce Harber and Colle Schwarber this year,
and we're to taker Murkami. If you count MPP experience,
they've made the finals thirty six percent of the time,
so higher finals rate if you have prior experience, higher
win rate if you have prior experience. The last factor
that was difficult to judge for this derby was the
(09:50):
handedness and the fact that Citizens Bank Park is the
highest home run park factor for left handed hitters, about
a one to thirty three thirty three percent higher than
the major league gaverage, closer to neutral for righties, but
with thirties ball is flying on average about four hundred
twenty feet for any of these homers. Doesn't really come
down to whether or not you're able to lift it
(10:11):
out of the park or not. So it may take
away a home runner too, it's not going to have
a dramatic impact in terms of adding or decreasing a
lot of home runs for these guys, apart from potential
wind impact, but beyond that in terms of the actual
park factor. I gave a boost to the lefties. I
gave a small boost to Shoreburn Harper. But overall my
(10:33):
value here and my model still pointing to three guys
as I said, Junior Cabinaro, Jack cagleone, and Jordan Walker
Junior I have it about twenty two percent, CAGs and
Walker at about sixteen and a half percent, respectively. I
like Junior down to plus three seventy five. I like
CAGs or Walker down to about plus six hundred. I
(10:57):
make their fair odds closer to three point fifty for
Junior and then five to ten for both CAGs and Walker.
Caags is the model stream profile, number one on the
field the maximum MEGS velocity, number one in bat speed.
He's the harder swinger in the field, number one in
maximum in game distance. He's also been to a Derby
final last year, so he has the experience as well.
(11:20):
I think the only thing working against them here is
the fact that he hits from the right side of
the plate. The other two guys who are most comparable
to him from a EXS velocity perspective and from a
bat speed perspective are Walker and CAGs. The difference between
them Walker has the higher average distance. So if this
comes down to a tie break to get out of
the first round, I favor Walker to get in over CAGs.
(11:42):
CAGs gets the lefty bump. But the fact that they
both rank just behind camon Aro in bat speed, and
I'm not even factoring in bat speed, and I think
bat speed has a chance to be extremely predictive, lends
me to the belief that this is the right top
three in some order, third or fourth and fifth. I
(12:02):
have Schwarber and Murakami, and that would be my four
to advance in some order, Caminaro, cagleon Walker, and then
one of Murakami or Shorber. I could also see one
of those three getting knocked out in both Murakami and
Shober advancing. But Harper Rice Contreras kind of pretty firmly
my bottom three and the three that I would be
(12:23):
looking to fade, specifically in head to head matchups. Schrober.
I went through why he's a bit disqualifiable the other reason,
and I picked Shrober a couple of years ago when
he ended up losing the first round to a forty
one year old retiring Erlberd Pools. Schober ranks really highly
obviously in bat speed and a lot of these stackass metrics.
(12:46):
But where he fails henks. He ranks last in the
field in blast rate and last in squared up rate.
He swings very hard, But what Kylee Schuber does do
is pop up a lot and when his bat passes bad,
passes off. You can look back at that derby from
a couple of years ago to see an example, a
bit from twenty twenty two. He does hit a lot
(13:06):
of pop ups, and he'll get into groove of hitting
pop ups. And when you're talking about needing to be
efficient inside of twenty swings, he's not the most efficient
swinger here. Now this is batting practice. Anything can happen
and a guy could come up, you know, fully locked
in on his swing path. But of these players, of
these hitters, I think Schwarber is the most likely to
(13:29):
get into a funk in terms of his swing path.
He just does not square up the ball as frequently
as these other guys. I think it's partially because he
swings so hard. So maybe swinging less hard in a
derby could be beneficial to him, because you don't get
really bonus points apart from the tiebreaker you don't really
get anything bonus from hitting the longest home runs, So
worth noting about Shorber. I think he's certainly capable of winning,
(13:52):
but I do think the mark against is the squared
up rate and the fact or the squared up in
the blast rates, the fact that he ranks last in
the field in both of those metrics. Muracamedie I didn't
dock for the injured list stint is just three games
removed from a hamstring strain. I couldn't get his odds
above thirteen percent, even making him the best I could
(14:12):
possibly be, But that I all of a sudden didn't
ding him at all for the injury. I think he's
the biggest wildcard in the field. If he hits the
most time runs in the first round and gases himself out,
WOULD not be surprised at all if he struggles in
the first round, wouldn't be surprised. If he wins the
whole thing, I wouldn't be surprised. Complete X factor for
Munataka Murakami. But now I've said three guys that I
(14:33):
really like in the American League, one that I like
in the National League, potentially in Walker, and kind of
against Shoorber. Though I think Shorber could win it. The
American League to win the Derby is about minus one sixty.
I make that closer to minus one eighty five. I
would bet that up to around minus one seventy. Considering
the ale contenders. I like the guys I'm betting against,
(14:53):
as I alluded to Bryce Harper, Ben Rice, kind of
William Contreras, not like fully against Contreras. Tress is actually
fourth or I think fourth in the field in bat speed.
He is elite bat speed. He's an excellent hitter, but
his max ev peak came about three years ago. He's
also in his mid thirties. If he was competing in
this derby thirty years old, twenty nine years old, I'd
(15:14):
be a little bit more interested in Contreras given the profile. Otherwise,
though there's not a not a lot to love, nothing
that really stands out. Should be a consistent guy. I
think he could advance to the second round. I just
don't know if Heet necessarily has the ceiling type of
power to win this thing. Big marks against Ben Rice,
as I mentioned, last in the field in several categories.
(15:36):
Also I believe last in bat speed as well. So
Ben Rice is a guy, I'm going to be taking
a shot against, even though you know you would assume
Ben Rice, coming from that short portra Yankee Stadium would
be overachieving his expected home run to a draft. The
degree not really the case thus far this year. But
my bets in terms of this field and in terms
of the outrights to advance, etc. I bet Walker, camin Air,
(16:00):
row In, Kgalion all individually to make the semifinals or
to make the final four. Cagalion I took a minus
one oh five. I like him to minus one twenty five. Walker,
I took it minus one twenty five. I like him
to minus one thirty five. And then Cavanera at minus
one forty five to advance to the second round, the
semifinal or the final four minus one forty five. I
like them up to minus one eighty five. I also
(16:23):
bet Caminero to make the final plus two twenty I
like it down to plus one seventy. That was my
biggest edge among the semi final, final and champion markets.
And then last day ladder to Caminero all the way
up as the winner. I like him at about plus
four fifty down two plus three seventy five. So Caminero
I bet to win to make the semifinal to make
(16:46):
the final. Walker and Cagalion I bet just to make
the semifinal, just to advance out of the first round.
I'm considering adding a bet on Walker to make the
final as well. At about plus two eighty down to
plus two to fifty or so, I bet those three
players in matchup props too, both to make the finals together.
(17:07):
The finalist markets as opposed to the exact markets Cagalion
and Camanaro was eighteen to one. I would bet that
down to twelve to one. Walker and Camanaro I got
it nearly twenty two to one. On exchange, I'd bet
that down to fourteen to one. Take a look at
my article on action org dot com. You can find
a full chart basically breaking down all of these potential props,
(17:29):
all these potential matchup pairings, all of the potential EXACTA winners, example,
Camanaro over Callion or Camonaro Overwalker instead of both to
make the finals together. I did find bigger edges in
the make the finals market as opposed to the exactness market,
but more books are starting to open up props. I'm
probably gonna add more action before derby time. So take
(17:50):
a look at my article on action org dot com
for all of those projections so that you can compare
them relative to your book and find a potential value
bet the others that I placed for this derby. Thus
farm again, I'm still considering adding more. But Junior Camanara
longest home run I took a plus three seventy five.
I like that down to plus three hundred, and then Camanero,
(18:12):
your round one leader plus five hundred. I like that
to plus four fifty. This is one of the more
interesting markets to look at, especially as we get closer
and as you potentially get live in the derby. We
don't know the hitting order. I'm assuming it is based
off of the number of home runs these guys have
hit this year. If so, Camanaro would be I believe
third from last or fourth from last. If that is
(18:35):
the case, Kyle Schuber should not be favored in this
market because if Schwrober only needs the clear fourth place
in order to advance to the second round, there's no
incentive for him to go all out trying to clear
the leader in the field and be the top number
one seed just to have the seat once you've advanced,
there's no benefit to unless you want to pick the
(18:57):
guy that you're facing. There's really no benefit to trying
to be the number one hitter. So the guy's going
later in the round Schrober, Rice, If they are indeed
going in the order of the number of home runs
they've hit this year from least to most, Rice and
Shober not only would fade them to hit the most
home runs in round one, but I would also like
(19:19):
and I do like the under on their round one
home run totals. That's how I handicapped it out. The
fact that these guys would be going last and second
to last Rice under nine and a half, I project
them closer to eight and a half under nine and
a half to eight and a half at plus one ten,
and then Schorber under ten and a half first round
homers to nine and a half at even money. I
also like Harper under eight and a half to even money,
(19:40):
and I like Jordan Walker over nine and a half
to about plus one oh five. So those are all
the Derby bets that I've placed thus far. If you
want again to see big edges that I have on
potential first round head to head matchups because a lot
of books are just offering every single possible head to
head combination for the first round. I think it's what
is it, fifty six different combinations that you can make
(20:02):
from these eight hitters. So take a look at those.
I have all of these matchups odds projected out shows
some pretty big edges, especially Junior Cavanaro against Kyle Schwarber.
I make Cavandero minus one twenty I thy can get
plus money on Cabanaro in that head to head. So
a lot of these worth looking into again, especially considering
(20:23):
the potential ordering here and the fact that Shoreburn Rice
may be going last, which could give us a very
big advantage in terms of betting these head to heads
because if Schworeburn, Rice don't have to clear the full
leader bar, it just kind of lowers the ceiling for
how many home runs they may hit. But that'll do
it for my analysis of the twenty twenty six Home
(20:44):
run Derby stick around. I'm going to discuss my projections
and bets for the twenty twenty six Major League Baseball
All Star Game. But first worth noting with summer underway
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(21:06):
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(21:28):
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Pro bets for the twenty twenty six Major League Baseball
All Star Game, and my projection is going to run
through this briefly. Upshot is I really prefer the American
League starting lineup to the National League starting lineup, and
(21:48):
I strongly prefer the National League reserves to the American
League reserves. If we were to play a full game
using the anticipated starting lineups, I'd make the National League
just minus one oh two. If we played a full
game with the reserves, I'd make the NL minus one
forty four. Now, the total would also swing drastically as well,
we play a full game in the NL starters, I'd
(22:10):
make this total closer to nine. If we played a
full game with the NL reserves or the reserves on
both sides, I should say I'd make the total closer
to seven and a half. So, putting together that projection,
I make the NL minus one twenty two, I make
the total about eight point two, So I show value
not on the full game side, but the full game
(22:32):
over seven and a half minus one ten. I'd like
that up to seven and a half at minus one twenty.
We spent the over in the All Star Game last year,
not something I thought i'd even do, or ever do.
Considering all these one inning pitchers coming in, you just
typically get a suppressed hitting environment because nobody's seeing, nobody's
(22:54):
getting the second time through the order penalty. It's just
a fresh at bad for every single one of these hitters,
every plate appearance. But I do show value on the
over this year we also have the wind blowing out
to right field at Citizens Bank Park, and largely which
was the analysis last year, I don't think the quality
of pitching is as good as it normally is, and
(23:15):
it normally should be. In the All Star Game. Now,
the team who took the biggest hit was the National League,
and they're pitching because they're missing. Chase Burns, Braxton Ashcraft,
Shoeo Tani, Paul Skeins, Max Meyer, Jacob Mezdarowski, Zach Willard
didn't make the roster. That's seven of your best pitchers
from the National League. And then on the American League side,
(23:36):
Trek Skoogle didn't make it because they didn't pitch enough
innings thus far this year. Ranger Suarez also left off
the AL roster, left off due to injury as well.
So I think a lot of the best starting pitchers
are missing. I think the bullpens are very, very elite,
and it's a matter of how the managers put together
these innings for their respective teams. But my takeaway is
(24:00):
over seven and a half two about minus one twenty
or eight at even money, and then the first five innings.
I like the American League. I make the American League,
as I said, about plus one oh two for the
first five, and I would bet them down to about
plus one ten. You can currently get same price first
five in full game around plus one twenty two ish
(24:21):
or so on the American League so taking the American
League in the first half would consider a live bet
on the National League. As we roll into the reserve
part of this game. If you're getting you know, if
the game is neutral right one to one through five
or whatever, the score is tied through five and you're
still getting minus one twenty two on the National League,
(24:42):
I would go ahead and take that absolutely, probably live,
considering I make the game minus one forty five or
whatever it is over the final four innings, but pregame
American League to plus one ten first five innings and
the over eight to minus one twenty or sorry over
eight to even money over seven and a half to
(25:03):
minus one twenty. Again, strongly prefer the NL bench to
the ALE bench, but prefer the AL starters to the
National League starters. And that'll do it. For today's episode
of Payoff Pitch, as I took you through the entire
field for the twenty twenty six home run Derby, gave
you my thoughts on the twenty twenty six All Star Game.
(25:23):
You can find all my analysis for the Derby, my projections,
my bets in the action We're in the action of
work gap via my article on the twenty twenty six
houmm Runner, but you could also find that on the
web as well. And I will publish an article for
Tuesday additionally covering my projections and the rosters for the
All Star Game. But that'll do it. We will be
(25:45):
back with a new episode on Friday. New episode on
Tuesday for the All Star Game. Specifically, this will serve
as your All Star Game preview and if you want
more information, make sure to check out my article on
the All Star Game. I'm also going to publish Futures
Models this week. My Futures Models which are part of Bartolo,
but which will incorporate daily all the updated projections from
(26:08):
around the public betting space or from around the public
projection markets to help you make the best decisions about
where you want to place your futures money. For the
second alps, to keep an eye out for those, keep
an eye out for my Derby preview and my All
Star Game preview. That'll do it. We'll see back here
on Friday for another episode PAI priving this crowd on
(26:37):
his feet, What a trivia? No one lunch to leave
What's that flying a tight ball? No crying, and this
game's underway in the springs. Stop bringing Josh the bit
out of sign. Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield
by Castiano, so it will be a home run. Wow.
(00:24):
Hello dude, coming um, you talk about a roll of
the dice, this is it. Here's the payoff pitch. Hello,
I'm welcome Playoff Pitch Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
I'm Sean Zerulo, joined today by No One flying solo
yet again as they break down the twenty twenty six
home run Derby. Also going to give you my projections
(00:45):
and bets for the twenty twenty six Major League Baseball
All Star Game. With this new season underway, we're looking
for those five star reviews. We'll pick out some of
our favorites and send out Action swag. Say whatever you want,
as long as it's five stars for chants to win
some Action Network merch. And with that, let's go through
the eight hitter field for the twenty twenty six MLB
(01:08):
Home Run Derby, going down on Monday night in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania,
eight pm on Netflix this year in a new format,
going to be swing efficiency based because the hitters are
going to get a minimum of twenty swings in the
first round fifteen of both the semifinals and the finals.
The caveat being if they hit a home run on
(01:31):
their final swing, they get to keep swinging until they
don't hit one out. So if you happen to cluster
your home runs near the end, if you save your
energy for the end of year round, you hit one
out on the final out or on the final swing allotted,
you keep going until you stop hitting them. First round
tiebreak is going to be decided by home run distance.
(01:54):
If there is a tie break in the semifinal or
the final, they will go to a three swing off,
but no bracket format in the first round this year.
The top four of the eight will advance to the
second round. The first seed will play the fourth seed
in the semifinal two versus three, and then the winners
(02:14):
of those bracket matchups will advance to the finals. So
no no bracket for the first round does go to
a bracket for these second and third rounds. Now, in
order to try to quantify this field a little bit better,
I back tested a bunch of different data points relative
to the stackcast era home run Derby. So this is
(02:35):
only twenty sixteen to present. Just the pitch tracking era
ran through about twenty five to thirty different data points
on top of just measuring season to date performance, et
cetera to judge this field against one another and ended
up with some interesting findings, the key of which is
(02:55):
maximum megs velocity kind of carries the day in turn
of the stackass metrics. Now, max TV is something we've
talked about regularly on the show in terms of being
the best measure of power ceiling for a hitter. Once
a hitter kind of raises their max TV within a
statistically relevant sample, it just puts a higher grade on
(03:17):
what their future power upside is likely to be. The
harder you hit a ball, the more you're likely to
hit home runs in the future. Now, the most interesting
aspect about max EV. The leader in maximum egs of
velocity over the past thirty days leading up to the
derby has won the Derby outright five out of nine times.
(03:40):
So just being the guy who hits the ball the
hardest in the thirty days leading up to the derby
has been more than a fifty percent chance at predicting
the winner. Your hardest hitter going into this derby over
the past thirty days and also for the full season
is Junior Caminero one. Sixteen point nine is his max TV.
Jordan Walker is right behind him at once again teen
(04:00):
point six. But some other interesting data points worth noting
about max EV. Six out of the nine Stackcast winning
ERA winners ranked top two in the field in MAXIV
going to the derby. Seven of the nine ranked in
the top four. The max EV leader in the field
that reached the finals six times out of the nine years,
(04:21):
they also advanced past the first round seven times, and
then across fifty five racket head to head matchups, each
standard deviation of maximum EV added roughly seventeen points of
I applied win probability to the eventual outcome. So it
is largely the driver for what ends up leading to
derby's success, and it is largely the driver for what
(04:45):
ends up leading to the derby winner. There are some
caveats you can carve out. No player who ranked in
the bottom of the field in any of the Stackcast
data points that I alluded to has won the derby.
Now that is across a lot of different data points,
and the two guys who get knocked out here on
that criteria, Ben Rice, who's last in the field in
(05:07):
max ev EV fifty maximum distance average home run distance,
and then Bryce Harper, who also has the worst thirty
day MAXIV going in to this derby and ranks is
one of the two oldest hitters in the field. Now.
Age has also been particularly disqualifying in past Derby's. I
do think that is partially due to the fact that
(05:27):
these guys were just allowed to swing as much as
they wanted within the allotted time, and I do think
the older players were gassing themselves out a little bit.
The only player older than thirty to make the finals
was ta Oskar Hernandez in twenty twenty four. The average
age for the winners is younger than the average age
for the field. But I do think, you know, without
(05:50):
a pitchclock this year, making it more swing oriented, it
does open it up for an older competitor to potentially
not tire themselves out in the first shround, first or
two rounds and potentially win. But just kind of putting
all those data points together, be in the top half
of the field, the max EV don't be among the
(06:10):
two oldest hitters in the field. And don't rank blast
in the field in any stack Gass category. If you
had to use those three filters over the past nine years,
you would have gotten seven to the nine winners. You
would have filtered down to about two and a half
hitters per year, and it would have selected seven to
nine winners. The only two would have missed on Tasker Hernandez,
who basically defies all prior Derby data points in twenty nineteen,
(06:34):
I believe I was twenty twenty four, and Thenjan Soto
in twenty twenty two, when he was injured and going
into the Derby, his stackass data had just kind of
bottomed out for his career that year, was healthy for
the Derby, was not healthy over the three months leading
into the Derby, and I think his sample kind of
got skewed. So largely it does seem like these data
points are very predictive in terms of filtering for the winner,
(06:57):
the one guy or the two guys who fall outside
of the top four here in max TV who don't qualify.
Kyle Schuber s fifth and I believe munatakamer Kami is
seventh in maxim megs of velocity, so they just fall
outside for that reason contrerorists falls off on age. Ben Rice,
as I said, falls off because he's outside the top four,
(07:20):
and then he's also last in different categories. Bryce Harper
doesn't qualify because of age and also the fact that
he's lower on Max TV. So again, putting that all together,
filtering those for those three things, you're left with three
guys Junior Camen Era, Jordan Walker, and Jack Kaglion. Now,
in terms of how I modeled this out and what
(07:42):
else matters doesn't matter, I found that season production, how
good you've been lately at hitting home runs, your home
runs per five ball, home runs per PA over the
preceding thirty days, whether you go first or second in
the bracket, none of that has really mattered. I think
the most interesting aspect that, obvi is the bracket matchup
stuff setting a target or allowing your opponent to set
(08:04):
a target in front of you being the more rusted
guy because you have more home runs. It hasn't been
indicative of picking winners once you get to the bracket
stage in the derby. In fact, the guy who hit
second in the derby in bracket matchups has only one
forty nine percent of the time, so the added rest
and the target chasing did not pride any sort of boost.
Home crowd hasn't really been a boost either. Bryce Harper
(08:25):
did win in twenty eighteen in Washington, DC, but every
other competitor I believe in the Stackass era. The other
six who competed in front of their home crowds all
exited in round one, so worth noting for both Kyle
Schwarber and Bryce Harper For tonight's Derby. The stuff that's
most inconclusive is the bat tracking data and the stuff
that we only have about a couple of years of
(08:46):
background on batspeed squared up, blast swing length. These since
they were introduced have correlated pretty highly and higher than
other stackass data points to picking winners and defining Derby success.
We just only have two years of a data sample
to be able to judge these Derby fields against so
I want more data. I do factor in some of
(09:07):
those data points due to the fact that they have
been very predictive inside of two years, or at least
more predicted than other data points, just not factoring in
as much fully as they may a year or two
for now now Derby experience I think matters as well
returneys won twenty one percent of the time versus eight
percent for debutantes and players with prior finals experience, which
(09:30):
applies to Junior Caminero, Bryce Harber and Colle Schwarber this year,
and we're to taker Murkami. If you count MPP experience,
they've made the finals thirty six percent of the time,
so higher finals rate if you have prior experience, higher
win rate if you have prior experience. The last factor
that was difficult to judge for this derby was the
(09:50):
handedness and the fact that Citizens Bank Park is the
highest home run park factor for left handed hitters, about
a one to thirty three thirty three percent higher than
the major league gaverage, closer to neutral for righties, but
with thirties ball is flying on average about four hundred
twenty feet for any of these homers. Doesn't really come
down to whether or not you're able to lift it
(10:11):
out of the park or not. So it may take
away a home runner too, it's not going to have
a dramatic impact in terms of adding or decreasing a
lot of home runs for these guys, apart from potential
wind impact, but beyond that in terms of the actual
park factor. I gave a boost to the lefties. I
gave a small boost to Shoreburn Harper. But overall my
(10:33):
value here and my model still pointing to three guys
as I said, Junior Cabinaro, Jack cagleone, and Jordan Walker
Junior I have it about twenty two percent, CAGs and
Walker at about sixteen and a half percent, respectively. I
like Junior down to plus three seventy five. I like
CAGs or Walker down to about plus six hundred. I
(10:57):
make their fair odds closer to three point fifty for
Junior and then five to ten for both CAGs and Walker.
Caags is the model stream profile, number one on the
field the maximum MEGS velocity, number one in bat speed.
He's the harder swinger in the field, number one in
maximum in game distance. He's also been to a Derby
final last year, so he has the experience as well.
(11:20):
I think the only thing working against them here is
the fact that he hits from the right side of
the plate. The other two guys who are most comparable
to him from a EXS velocity perspective and from a
bat speed perspective are Walker and CAGs. The difference between
them Walker has the higher average distance. So if this
comes down to a tie break to get out of
the first round, I favor Walker to get in over CAGs.
(11:42):
CAGs gets the lefty bump. But the fact that they
both rank just behind camon Aro in bat speed, and
I'm not even factoring in bat speed, and I think
bat speed has a chance to be extremely predictive, lends
me to the belief that this is the right top
three in some order, third or fourth and fifth. I
(12:02):
have Schwarber and Murakami, and that would be my four
to advance in some order, Caminaro, cagleon Walker, and then
one of Murakami or Shorber. I could also see one
of those three getting knocked out in both Murakami and
Shober advancing. But Harper Rice Contreras kind of pretty firmly
my bottom three and the three that I would be
(12:23):
looking to fade, specifically in head to head matchups. Schrober.
I went through why he's a bit disqualifiable the other reason,
and I picked Shrober a couple of years ago when
he ended up losing the first round to a forty
one year old retiring Erlberd Pools. Schober ranks really highly
obviously in bat speed and a lot of these stackass metrics.
(12:46):
But where he fails henks. He ranks last in the
field in blast rate and last in squared up rate.
He swings very hard, But what Kylee Schuber does do
is pop up a lot and when his bat passes bad,
passes off. You can look back at that derby from
a couple of years ago to see an example, a
bit from twenty twenty two. He does hit a lot
(13:06):
of pop ups, and he'll get into groove of hitting
pop ups. And when you're talking about needing to be
efficient inside of twenty swings, he's not the most efficient
swinger here. Now this is batting practice. Anything can happen
and a guy could come up, you know, fully locked
in on his swing path. But of these players, of
these hitters, I think Schwarber is the most likely to
(13:29):
get into a funk in terms of his swing path.
He just does not square up the ball as frequently
as these other guys. I think it's partially because he
swings so hard. So maybe swinging less hard in a
derby could be beneficial to him, because you don't get
really bonus points apart from the tiebreaker you don't really
get anything bonus from hitting the longest home runs, So
worth noting about Shorber. I think he's certainly capable of winning,
(13:52):
but I do think the mark against is the squared
up rate and the fact or the squared up in
the blast rates, the fact that he ranks last in
the field in both of those metrics. Muracamedie I didn't
dock for the injured list stint is just three games
removed from a hamstring strain. I couldn't get his odds
above thirteen percent, even making him the best I could
(14:12):
possibly be, But that I all of a sudden didn't
ding him at all for the injury. I think he's
the biggest wildcard in the field. If he hits the
most time runs in the first round and gases himself out,
WOULD not be surprised at all if he struggles in
the first round, wouldn't be surprised. If he wins the
whole thing, I wouldn't be surprised. Complete X factor for
Munataka Murakami. But now I've said three guys that I
(14:33):
really like in the American League, one that I like
in the National League, potentially in Walker, and kind of
against Shoorber. Though I think Shorber could win it. The
American League to win the Derby is about minus one sixty.
I make that closer to minus one eighty five. I
would bet that up to around minus one seventy. Considering
the ale contenders. I like the guys I'm betting against,
(14:53):
as I alluded to Bryce Harper, Ben Rice, kind of
William Contreras, not like fully against Contreras. Tress is actually
fourth or I think fourth in the field in bat speed.
He is elite bat speed. He's an excellent hitter, but
his max ev peak came about three years ago. He's
also in his mid thirties. If he was competing in
this derby thirty years old, twenty nine years old, I'd
(15:14):
be a little bit more interested in Contreras given the profile. Otherwise,
though there's not a not a lot to love, nothing
that really stands out. Should be a consistent guy. I
think he could advance to the second round. I just
don't know if Heet necessarily has the ceiling type of
power to win this thing. Big marks against Ben Rice,
as I mentioned, last in the field in several categories.
(15:36):
Also I believe last in bat speed as well. So
Ben Rice is a guy, I'm going to be taking
a shot against, even though you know you would assume
Ben Rice, coming from that short portra Yankee Stadium would
be overachieving his expected home run to a draft. The
degree not really the case thus far this year. But
my bets in terms of this field and in terms
of the outrights to advance, etc. I bet Walker, camin Air,
(16:00):
row In, Kgalion all individually to make the semifinals or
to make the final four. Cagalion I took a minus
one oh five. I like him to minus one twenty five. Walker,
I took it minus one twenty five. I like him
to minus one thirty five. And then Cavanera at minus
one forty five to advance to the second round, the
semifinal or the final four minus one forty five. I
like them up to minus one eighty five. I also
(16:23):
bet Caminero to make the final plus two twenty I
like it down to plus one seventy. That was my
biggest edge among the semi final, final and champion markets.
And then last day ladder to Caminero all the way
up as the winner. I like him at about plus
four fifty down two plus three seventy five. So Caminero
I bet to win to make the semifinal to make
(16:46):
the final. Walker and Cagalion I bet just to make
the semifinal, just to advance out of the first round.
I'm considering adding a bet on Walker to make the
final as well. At about plus two eighty down to
plus two to fifty or so, I bet those three
players in matchup props too, both to make the finals together.
(17:07):
The finalist markets as opposed to the exact markets Cagalion
and Camanaro was eighteen to one. I would bet that
down to twelve to one. Walker and Camanaro I got
it nearly twenty two to one. On exchange, I'd bet
that down to fourteen to one. Take a look at
my article on action org dot com. You can find
a full chart basically breaking down all of these potential props,
(17:29):
all these potential matchup pairings, all of the potential EXACTA winners, example,
Camanaro over Callion or Camonaro Overwalker instead of both to
make the finals together. I did find bigger edges in
the make the finals market as opposed to the exactness market,
but more books are starting to open up props. I'm
probably gonna add more action before derby time. So take
(17:50):
a look at my article on action org dot com
for all of those projections so that you can compare
them relative to your book and find a potential value
bet the others that I placed for this derby. Thus
farm again, I'm still considering adding more. But Junior Camanara
longest home run I took a plus three seventy five.
I like that down to plus three hundred, and then Camanero,
(18:12):
your round one leader plus five hundred. I like that
to plus four fifty. This is one of the more
interesting markets to look at, especially as we get closer
and as you potentially get live in the derby. We
don't know the hitting order. I'm assuming it is based
off of the number of home runs these guys have
hit this year. If so, Camanaro would be I believe
third from last or fourth from last. If that is
(18:35):
the case, Kyle Schuber should not be favored in this
market because if Schwrober only needs the clear fourth place
in order to advance to the second round, there's no
incentive for him to go all out trying to clear
the leader in the field and be the top number
one seed just to have the seat once you've advanced,
there's no benefit to unless you want to pick the
(18:57):
guy that you're facing. There's really no benefit to trying
to be the number one hitter. So the guy's going
later in the round Schrober, Rice, If they are indeed
going in the order of the number of home runs
they've hit this year from least to most, Rice and
Shober not only would fade them to hit the most
home runs in round one, but I would also like
(19:19):
and I do like the under on their round one
home run totals. That's how I handicapped it out. The
fact that these guys would be going last and second
to last Rice under nine and a half, I project
them closer to eight and a half under nine and
a half to eight and a half at plus one ten,
and then Schorber under ten and a half first round
homers to nine and a half at even money. I
also like Harper under eight and a half to even money,
(19:40):
and I like Jordan Walker over nine and a half
to about plus one oh five. So those are all
the Derby bets that I've placed thus far. If you
want again to see big edges that I have on
potential first round head to head matchups because a lot
of books are just offering every single possible head to
head combination for the first round. I think it's what
is it, fifty six different combinations that you can make
(20:02):
from these eight hitters. So take a look at those.
I have all of these matchups odds projected out shows
some pretty big edges, especially Junior Cavanaro against Kyle Schwarber.
I make Cavandero minus one twenty I thy can get
plus money on Cabanaro in that head to head. So
a lot of these worth looking into again, especially considering
(20:23):
the potential ordering here and the fact that Shoreburn Rice
may be going last, which could give us a very
big advantage in terms of betting these head to heads
because if Schworeburn, Rice don't have to clear the full
leader bar, it just kind of lowers the ceiling for
how many home runs they may hit. But that'll do
it for my analysis of the twenty twenty six Home
(20:44):
run Derby stick around. I'm going to discuss my projections
and bets for the twenty twenty six Major League Baseball
All Star Game. But first worth noting with summer underway
as the World Cup years, it's and we've got a
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(21:06):
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(21:28):
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Pro bets for the twenty twenty six Major League Baseball
All Star Game, and my projection is going to run
through this briefly. Upshot is I really prefer the American
League starting lineup to the National League starting lineup, and
(21:48):
I strongly prefer the National League reserves to the American
League reserves. If we were to play a full game
using the anticipated starting lineups, I'd make the National League
just minus one oh two. If we played a full
game with the reserves, I'd make the NL minus one
forty four. Now, the total would also swing drastically as well,
we play a full game in the NL starters, I'd
(22:10):
make this total closer to nine. If we played a
full game with the NL reserves or the reserves on
both sides, I should say I'd make the total closer
to seven and a half. So, putting together that projection,
I make the NL minus one twenty two, I make
the total about eight point two, So I show value
not on the full game side, but the full game
(22:32):
over seven and a half minus one ten. I'd like
that up to seven and a half at minus one twenty.
We spent the over in the All Star Game last year,
not something I thought i'd even do, or ever do.
Considering all these one inning pitchers coming in, you just
typically get a suppressed hitting environment because nobody's seeing, nobody's
(22:54):
getting the second time through the order penalty. It's just
a fresh at bad for every single one of these hitters,
every plate appearance. But I do show value on the
over this year we also have the wind blowing out
to right field at Citizens Bank Park, and largely which
was the analysis last year, I don't think the quality
of pitching is as good as it normally is, and
(23:15):
it normally should be. In the All Star Game. Now,
the team who took the biggest hit was the National League,
and they're pitching because they're missing. Chase Burns, Braxton Ashcraft,
Shoeo Tani, Paul Skeins, Max Meyer, Jacob Mezdarowski, Zach Willard
didn't make the roster. That's seven of your best pitchers
from the National League. And then on the American League side,
(23:36):
Trek Skoogle didn't make it because they didn't pitch enough
innings thus far this year. Ranger Suarez also left off
the AL roster, left off due to injury as well.
So I think a lot of the best starting pitchers
are missing. I think the bullpens are very, very elite,
and it's a matter of how the managers put together
these innings for their respective teams. But my takeaway is
(24:00):
over seven and a half two about minus one twenty
or eight at even money, and then the first five innings.
I like the American League. I make the American League,
as I said, about plus one oh two for the
first five, and I would bet them down to about
plus one ten. You can currently get same price first
five in full game around plus one twenty two ish
(24:21):
or so on the American League so taking the American
League in the first half would consider a live bet
on the National League. As we roll into the reserve
part of this game. If you're getting you know, if
the game is neutral right one to one through five
or whatever, the score is tied through five and you're
still getting minus one twenty two on the National League,
(24:42):
I would go ahead and take that absolutely, probably live,
considering I make the game minus one forty five or
whatever it is over the final four innings, but pregame
American League to plus one ten first five innings and
the over eight to minus one twenty or sorry over
eight to even money over seven and a half to
(25:03):
minus one twenty. Again, strongly prefer the NL bench to
the ALE bench, but prefer the AL starters to the
National League starters. And that'll do it. For today's episode
of Payoff Pitch, as I took you through the entire
field for the twenty twenty six home run Derby, gave
you my thoughts on the twenty twenty six All Star Game.
(25:23):
You can find all my analysis for the Derby, my projections,
my bets in the action We're in the action of
work gap via my article on the twenty twenty six
houmm Runner, but you could also find that on the
web as well. And I will publish an article for
Tuesday additionally covering my projections and the rosters for the
All Star Game. But that'll do it. We will be
(25:45):
back with a new episode on Friday. New episode on
Tuesday for the All Star Game. Specifically, this will serve
as your All Star Game preview and if you want
more information, make sure to check out my article on
the All Star Game. I'm also going to publish Futures
Models this week. My Futures Models which are part of Bartolo,
but which will incorporate daily all the updated projections from
(26:08):
around the public betting space or from around the public
projection markets to help you make the best decisions about
where you want to place your futures money. For the
second alps, to keep an eye out for those, keep
an eye out for my Derby preview and my All
Star Game preview. That'll do it. We'll see back here
on Friday for another episode PAI priving this crowd on
(26:37):
his feet, What a trivia? No one lunch to leave
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