2026 MLB Awards & Division Futures Update

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Flying a tank ball, no crying, and this game is underway.
In the up it is springs, stopering, Josh the bit outside.
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Castiano, so
it will be a home run wow field and he

(00:24):
look too coming up.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
You talk about a roll at the dice.

Speaker 1 (00:29):
This is it. Here's the Payoff Pitch. Welcome to Payoff
Pitch Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting podcast. I'm Colin Whitchurch,
joined by Action Network Senior MLB analyst Sean Zarrillo, and
this is our MLB mid season Futures update. We are

(00:50):
still like two weeks away from the All Star break,
but we're at the halfway point of the season proper.
Most teams have played eighty one ish game, so we're
at the midway point. It's time to revisit some of
our preseason futures. Maybe see if we're gonna add any
futures to our portfolio. If you're new to the show,

(01:14):
or even if you're not new to the show, we
went through as many possible futures as we could before
the season. I'm bringing up the Payoff Pitch podcast account
in the Action app there are one hundred and sixty
seven future bets logged there. We went through every division,
we went through awards, long shots, world series, you name it.

(01:34):
We've got a big portfolio going right now, Let's see
if we can add any more value. Now that we're
at the mid season point, Sean Zarella's got all of
the data, all of his league wide projections for teams,
for players, etc. Right in front of him. So I'm
gonna be really curious to see where he is at now. Again,
as we were just a couple days away from July.

(01:57):
So we're gonna go through the teams. We're gonna look
at divisions, We're gonna look at make misplayoff, We're gonna
look at World Series and pennants, and then we're gonna
go to the awards markets, MVP c I, Young Rookie
of the Year. See if anything else pops up along
the way. Gona real, real open forum here, no real structure.
We're just gonna we're gonna wing it here a little
bit and and see what we got. So let's start

(02:19):
with the divisions, Sean, I know you have some takes
here current division standings, just to give us a little update.
We've got the rays uh in the AL East, leading
the Yankees by a game, Wey, Sax and Guardians tied
in the AL Central, Rangers half game lead over the Mariners,
one over the Astros, two over the A's in the
AL West, and now the Braves lead over the Phillies

(02:42):
has shrunk to three games. The Brewers are five and
a half up on the Cubs, and then the Dodgers
ten games up on the Padres. Anything stand out to you,
Sean here in terms of divisional value, Yeah.

Speaker 3 (02:55):
Reiterate the Maritors, which was one of my bigger positions
or one of my bigger takes in the preseason, don't
actually have a ton of their division or so have
like the correlated futures down the line with them. But
make the Mariners about minus one twenty t whin the
AL West. You can get them at plus one oh
five currently, I would take that to minus one ten.
That's remained a consistent take the entire year. The race

(03:17):
the other team I was very high on coming into
the season. Currently, I make them about plus one eighty
to win the AL East. You can get them at
plus two fifteen. With Aaron Judge still on the IL
they project about three wins worse than the Yankees in
terms of the rest of season final projections Yankees at
about ninety one six, the Rays at eighty eight two,
but I still make them plus one eighty to win

(03:38):
what now is looking like closer to a two team race, though,
as we'll get into down the line. If you like
the race to win the division, I think there's other
ways that you should be betting them as well. The
Al Central I think there's two teams that are worth
considering betting against the White Sox. We'll get into the
White Sox as well, and they make miss playoffs section.
But it's difficult to take shots on either of these

(03:59):
teams considering their current positioning and where they may end
up sending assets at the trade deadline. If tark School
was no longer on the Tigers, he would not want
to be adding more to the Tigers right now. If
Joe Ryan is not on the Twins, he wouldn't want
to be adding Twins bets right now. The Twins are
my biggest projected edge in terms of all these divisions.
If they just kept their roster together, sitting what is it,

(04:19):
three and a half games or so within first place
of that division, they.

Speaker 2 (04:22):
Perform four and a half.

Speaker 3 (04:25):
The projections the rest of the way has them at
seventy six point nine, the White Sox at seventy nine
to six, in Cleveland at eighty two three, So not
a big gap in a very wide open division. If
the Twins were willing to stay in it, if they
were willing to add pieces to their bullpen, I think
they'd be a good bet right now. But knowing that
they are unlikely to do that, and they're much more

(04:46):
likely to trade dudes away, I can't sit here and
recommend the Twins to make the playoffs or to win
their division.

Speaker 2 (04:52):
So maybe give it a month.

Speaker 3 (04:53):
You know, if they're around the same position in July
thirty at their August first as they are right now,
then I'm I bet it. If you know that the
roster is going to be together, But right now, speculating
that that roster is going to stay together, I can't
really do the final one here in terms of potential
divisional value right now. You mentioned the Phillies just being
a few games back of the Braves at this point

(05:15):
where it got to I think it was like a
ten plus game lead. At one point in this season,
Phillies projected to finish at eighty nine point four the
Braves at ninety point seven, so it's essentially come neutral.
Ronaldakunr Junior still out for a little while. His status
too is a big question mark and a big factor

(05:36):
in terms of this divisional race. But I make the
Phillies about plus one fifty, you can bet them at
plus one seventy to win the NLS. So a bunch
of different teams that pop up as potential value bets
the three that I would actually place the Phillies at
plus one seventy down to about plus one sixty, the
Rays at plus two to fifteen down to about plus

(05:57):
two hundred, and then the Mariners at plus one zho
five two around minus one ten. I'd leave the ale
central stuff alone for now. There's another way that you
can approach batting that division that we'll discuss in a moment.
But the Phillies, the Rays, and the Mariners all look
like pretty solid divisional bats right now. Of the three,
since I already have the Mariner's positioning, I may add more,

(06:17):
but I'm likely here to add the Rays in the Phillies.
We'll see what I end up do. Adding just want
to talk about all these first. I'm going to spend
the rest of the day analyzing what I actually want
to put my money behind. So keep an eye on
the action work Gap for any notifications in terms of
futures additions, because if they come, they're gonna come in
the next couple of days.

Speaker 1 (06:34):
I'm glad you brought up the Phillies. I was kind
of kicking myself. I was like, should have jumped on
the Phillies like three weeks ago. You know, I don't
know where those where, that division odds, where they went,
like where they were three weeks ago.

Speaker 3 (06:49):
I was trying to bring up the good field the
vibe shift though you could yeah field and.

Speaker 1 (06:53):
Turn it on and yeah, It's like, I don't know
how here we go? Where did it peak? On call? She,
I'm looking June fourth, the Braves were eighty two point seven.
The Phillies were eighteen point five. Wow. So right now
and this again it's on call she it's fifty four

(07:13):
to forty three, so.

Speaker 2 (07:16):
They got up close to like plus four fifty. Yeah, yeah,
I was.

Speaker 1 (07:19):
It was kind of It's kind of stubbornness for me
right now where I look at the Phillies line and
I'm like I don't want to bet it right now
because I'm pissed that I missed it. But you know,
values value, and I agree with you that division is
going to get really interesting down the stretch. Braves can't
keep a catcher healthy, you know, trading for Joey Bart
last week, their staff you know again till late August, probably,

(07:45):
although I don't really know. I haven't checked on the
status of Schwellenbach's return or Hurston Waldrip's return, if they've
had any stepbacks, because I feel like I remember when
those they initially went down, it was like, oh, maybe
June July that would be a big boost. They're still
getting by with Martine per res Is smoking mirrors. Bryce
Elder started to take a step back just recently, so.

Speaker 3 (08:08):
Walder back in the bigs as of yesterday. Actually, oh really,
the Bock is throwing on flak rounds. So they're both progressing.
And yeah, you know, maybe maybe you're right. Maybe the
Phillies like did play their best stretch and now we're
betting on the tail end of it when they're like
likely to you know, tail.

Speaker 2 (08:25):
Off a little bit and play.

Speaker 1 (08:26):
Yeah. Another thing that tim Yeah, another thing with the
Phillies is that that is Dave don Browski is one
of those gems who I would expect to be the
most aggressive at the deadline. We saw it last year
acquiring Joan Duran. We'll see, you know. They they've got
Sanchez and Wheeler at the front of that rotation. It'll

(08:46):
be interesting to see if he acquires a number three
behind that so they don't have to rely on Aaron Nola. Well,
he's Lizardo obviously I should throw in there. But behind
those three, I guess see what they do. Maybe they
acquire another starting pitcher. There's a lot that that team
could do. The Braves could also be aggressive. You know,
there's no reason to think that they wouldn't be. But

(09:09):
obviously a big thing that we're gonna need to talk
about and that we think about often when we're adding
team's team futures to the portfolio is expectations at the deadline.
You talked about the Tigers. I was all in on
the Tigers before the season. I can't add any more
Tigers exposure. After I jinxed the hell out of them

(09:30):
back in March. I stare at them, they're like eight
or nine to one to make the playoffs. Right now,
they're like fourteen or seventeen to one to win the
AL Central, and I'm like, I want to add to this,
like this team, you know, as bad as they've been,
the AL is so shitty that they they're like five
games out of a playoff spot right now. But if
they're ten games under five hundred in three weeks, I

(09:54):
fully expect Scott Hairs to trade Trek Scoble. I fully
expect ownership to pressure him to trade Trek School, even
if he doesn't want to, because they the Illitch family
is notoriously cheap. So really interesting stuff. Even beyond Scooble.
You know, we could see Labor Torres out the door.
We could see Casey Maize out the door. Like there's
a lot of Kenley Jansen in the back of that

(10:16):
bullpen will Vest. Things could get ugly in Detroit fast.
As much as I think that team has potential to
go on a run. Twins, you mentioned Joe Ryan Byron
Buxton still claims he's not gonna wait his no trade clause,
So that's one helpful thing for the Twins. But yes,
big thing with these futures is potential trade deadline activity.

(10:40):
Division futures against Sean mentions, Ray's Mariners and Phillies. I
have no arguments with any of those. Again, my Phillies
qualms of Mariners for three months now. They're eventually gonna
run away with its division? When are they gonna run
away with this division? One of the most frustrating teams
in baseball. I still think they're eventually going to run

(11:01):
away with this division, but we haven't seen it yet.
We'll see em.

Speaker 2 (11:06):
Wilson's got to be on the hot seat at this point.

Speaker 1 (11:08):
Yes, you mentioned the make miss playoff market, one of
the most more interesting ones to monitor, especially as the
season goes on. You can bet just simple will this
team make the playoffs? Yes or no? You have some
takes here. We talked right before we started recording about
my White Sox. They're about even money to make the

(11:29):
playoffs right now, which is I still can't believe it entirely.
I'm not sure if you have any thoughts on them
or any other teams where you show the most value
in the make miss playoff market.

Speaker 2 (11:40):
Yeah, start with the White Sox.

Speaker 3 (11:41):
White Sox currently about minus one fifteen to miss the playoffs.
I make them closer to minus one fifty, so that's
certainly a bet I would consider placing. There's a lot though,
if you look up and down the make miss market,
you would end up with a lot of bets.

Speaker 2 (11:54):
You got to be really careful.

Speaker 3 (11:55):
In terms of picking the best spots, picking the best
angles that you want to bet on, so you know
if you don't or if you think that a team
that is not the White Sox is going to win
the Al Central. If you prefer the Tigers to the
White Sox thill, which I do from a talent perspective.
If you prefer the Guardians from a talent perspective to
the White Sox, betting the White Sox to miss the
playoffs could be a viable route. You could also bet

(12:17):
the Guardians to miss the playoffs. I make the Guardians
about plus two forty to make the playoffs, you can
bet them or a plus one seventy. You can bet
them at plus two forty to miss. So you know,
I wouldn't go betting both the Guardians and the White
Sox to miss. I would choose the one of the
two that you prefer between them. I actually show a
bigger edge on the Guardians to miss than I do
for the White SOX. So if I'm choosing between them,
I'm betting Cleveland to miss at about plus two forty.

(12:40):
As we alluded to, I show value on Detroit and
Minnesota to make or to win the Vision. I show
value on their make playoff odds as well. So you
know all of these angles are going to be kind
of correlated. Don't just go out and kind of blanket
fire on all of them, because if you lose one,
there's a good chance that you will likely lose another
since all of these angles are sort of correlated to
one another. My two favorite bets here are two of

(13:02):
the bets that I gave out in the preseason. Padres
to miss the playoffs, Astros to miss the playoffs. Padres
currently about minus one fifty five. I make that closer
to minus two to eighty. The Astros to miss is
minus one thirty five. I make that closer to minus
one seventy. So I bet those up to about minus
two to fifty and minus one sixty respectively. Podres to

(13:25):
miss Astros to miss. Those are among my favorite bets
in this category, maybe my two favorite bets in this category.
The EnL Central I think is the most interesting division
for this category because everybody's so tightly bunched. I show
value on the Cardinals to make, the Cubs to make,
and the Pirates to make. All three of those teams

(13:46):
are not going to make the playoffs, but given the
odds that each are being listed at, the Cardinals are
plus three fifty, I make them plus two to fifty.
The Cubs are minus two to fifteen, I make the
minus two to seventy. The Pirates are plus three thirty.
I make them plus t twenty. So the biggest edge
of those three is the Pirates to make at plus
three thirty. Would absolutely consider placing that bet at this point.

(14:07):
Just got Connor Griffin back, should get O'Neil Cruz back
at some point, have Jared Jones back in their rotation.
Braxton Ashcraft actually has a higher war rating than Paul Skeen's.
To this point of the season, Braxton Ashcraft has been unbelievable.
So not only is this Pirates team looking like they
will get consistent good starts the rest of the way

(14:28):
from their rotation, but if they make it to the playoffs,
and you're telling me you got Skeens and Jones and
Ashcraft going in a five game series that is a
very dangerous team to be against and one that you
would not want to face. We'll talk about Skins a
little bit more than the cy Young market a little
later on, but just wanted to point out, like kind
of the correlated factors that the Cardinals, the Pirates, the
Cubs are not all going to make the playoffs together,

(14:50):
especially with the Brews currently leading that division. But if
you can choose one of them, I'm probably taking the Pirates.
I would not overlook though, the Cardinals two at about
plus three fifty. I've just kind of been down on
the Cubs personally. I was aligned with them on the
market coming into the season.

Speaker 2 (15:04):
I bet the.

Speaker 3 (15:05):
Over on the Cardinals win total. I bet the over
on the Pirates win total. So directionally like, I'm still
kind of aligned with the same opinions. Neutral on the Cubs.
I think the market has them about right. I do
think the Pirates and the Cardinals remain a little bit undervalue.
If from taking any of them, I'm taking the Pirates.
That is my biggest projected edge among them. Two more

(15:25):
divisions want to talk about the Ale East value on
the Orioles, to make value on the Blue Jays, to
miss Blue Jays about minus two fifty. My projected line
currently minus one ninety. I bet you can place again.
The vibe just seems completely off with that team. We
didn't discuss it on this pod specifically, but we discuss
it on Monday's episode of Payoff Pitch for the Monday Slate. Like,

(15:47):
the chemistry seems off. They're obviously getting all the All
Star votes from their fans, but the team is not
played up to that level. And you know, the injection
and the the boost that they got from like minor
league call ups last year, Trey Yasovich, the other guys
that they were just able to cycle through their roster
and get value from. I don't see that coming this year.
So this team is either going to have to make

(16:09):
a move external the organization, make some trades to get
things right, or I think they're gonna end up finishing
around five hundred and missing the postseason. One of the
beneficiaries that could be the Baltimore Orioles. I make the
orders about plus three plus two to forty. You can
bet them at plus three fifty to make the playoffs.
Currently project a round five hundred right now, but if

(16:29):
they go on a big second half run, they could
absolutely end up stealing the final wildcard spot, and at
plus three fifty it's worse some considerations. So those are
my value bets in the make and miss playoff market.
Just to reiterate my favorite two Pod Race to miss
at about minus one fifty five, the Astros to miss
at minus one thirty five. If I'm choosing a team
in the NL Central, it's the Pirates to make at

(16:51):
plus three thirty. And if I'm choosing a bet in
the AL East, it's probably the Blue Jays to miss
at minus one ninety. But the Orioles value to make
the Cubs, value to make the Tigers, and Guardians the
Tigers to make the Guardians to miss. That's kind of
where I'm looking directionally in terms of these teams right now.

Speaker 1 (17:15):
Yeah, I don't have a ton to add here, because
the one team that I had circled was the Pirates
to make. I feel like that is most likely scenario there.
Interesting that the two teams you've found most value to miss,
the Astros and Padres, they're both exactly one half game
out of the third wild card spot right now. Just
a funny coincidence. But teams behind them, definitely have probably

(17:42):
more upside. The one team that I was eager before
I even looked at the odds, I was looking to
bet no on was the Marlins. I think they went
there eighteen and five this month or something like that.
Just the hottest team in baseball. The books aren't necessarily
buying that. They're still like minus three hundred something to
miss the playoffs, so couldn't get home there. The one

(18:06):
thing I did want to ask you about, Sean. We
talked about this in a couple different contexts before the season.
This is jumping ahead to the wards conversation a little bit.
You talk about the Pirates to make the playoffs. What
was that at plus three something about plus three thirty? Yeah,
you can bet Don Kelly manager of the year right now,
calls she at plus five twenty eight. Can you see

(18:28):
a scenario where the Pirates make the playoffs and Don
Kelly doesn't win Manager of the year right now? For
the record at call she maddingly is at fifty five percent,
Walt Weiss at thirty three percent, Pat Murphy, who I
think he's won at two years in a row or
something's at thirteen percent. You've got Don Kelly all the
way down there, plus five twenty eight. Kind of want

(18:49):
to pull the trigger on that, maybe double dip and
go both. But I'm like, again, if the Pirates make
the playoffs, it's hard to envision Don Kelly not winning
Manager of the Year, right unless the what are the
odds for CLAYT McCullough Clayton McCullough minus one.

Speaker 2 (19:04):
O four, uh's favor.

Speaker 1 (19:07):
Yes, yeah, I was looking at the percentage chance, not
the odds. Yeah, Maddingly's minus one twenty one, McCall's minus
one o four, Weiss plus one fifty eight like Utera.
We haven't talked about plus one eighty one. So yeah,
again this is over over at call she Don Kelly
then plus five twenty eight. Yeah, if you know, the

(19:30):
voters love voting the Marlins manager to win Manager of
the Year if they even come close to a playoff spot.
But again, Don Kelly and the Pirates, you know, maybe
the Phillies miraculous turnaround. Everyone loves that story. Don Mattingly
basically doing what Rob Thompson did a couple of years ago.
Walt Weiss took over a team that's super underachieved last year.

(19:52):
If they win ninety five games. I see the reason there.
I can't imagine they're going to vote Pat Murphy to
win Manager of the Year straight year. Yeah. So again
I look at Don Kelly and I'm just like, what
is the scenario where the Pirates make the playoffs and
Kelly doesn't win? They're out there, But is it enough
to give up the extra plus two hundred or whatever

(20:12):
on between make the playoffs and him just winning that award?

Speaker 3 (20:16):
Yeah, Mattingly, McCullough, Kelly, I think those are your three candidates.
I agree, relative to how everybody else is lined, you know,
call sheet factoring in way more than like one hundred
percent plighted probability there but two.

Speaker 2 (20:27):
People below even money.

Speaker 3 (20:28):
But yeah, I think certainly, you know, considering he's five
to one, everybody else's shorter than that, I would put him.
I would probably make him the second choice right now. Yeah,
behind McCullough maddingly So, yeah, any of those guys in
the top three, and he's substantially belongest odds among them.
I mean, like I said that the Pirates to make
the playoffs was I think my biggest projected edge among

(20:51):
these make miss bets. I have it it's the second
biggest edge. The Guardians to miss was the biggest one
at plus two forty. The Pirates to make at plus
three thirty was the secon biggest. It's like nine percent
versus eight percent. But yeah, I think that all aligns
with expectation. It seems like Kelly is way too far
down the board there.

Speaker 1 (21:08):
All right, Uh, we'll get into more awards here shortly.
But I'm curious about the World Series and pennant odds here.
You know, a lot of times these correlate. You find
you find value in the division, these you're gonna find
the same teams in the pennant. I'm curious if that's

(21:29):
the case. Just to go over this real quick, I'm
at DraftKings World Series odds right now. Dodgers are two
to one, Yankees are five to one. Then we have
the Mariners at ten to one, Braves and Phillies eleven
to one, Brewers twelve to one, and then we got
Rays sixteen to one, Cubs eighteen to one, Rangers twenty
to one. In the pennant. In the al Yankees two

(21:53):
to one, Mariners plus four, fifty Rays six to one,
n NOL Dodgers plus one, ten Ges plus five fifty
Phillies and Brewers both six to one, and then the
Cubs at nine to one. What are your thoughts here,
Sean in terms of either Pennant or World Series anything
that you're either adding or considering adding to your portfolio here.

Speaker 3 (22:16):
Yeah, I think I gave out the Maritors six to
one earlier in the season for the AL, and their
numbers somehow right now is four to one, despite being
in a worse.

Speaker 2 (22:23):
Position than I thought they would be in at this point.

Speaker 1 (22:26):
So it's because is so bad. I'm sorry, it's because
the rest of the AL is so bad.

Speaker 3 (22:32):
The rest of the AL has been absolutely horrific. And
you know, I think the American League is wide open.

Speaker 2 (22:37):
I really do.

Speaker 3 (22:38):
It's why if I were the Tigers, I would not,
as of right now look to trade Tiger School or
trade those guys you finally have your roster together. I
still think the Tigers can go on a big second
half run, and if they do, I think they're a
viable World Series contender. You know, the Tigers could have
the inverse seasons to the season they had last year.
Tigers like had a huge lead last year, collapsed it.
This year they're playing from behind. Maybe they can catch

(23:00):
up and go on a huge second half run, but
they're not the team I'm circling the Mariners at current odds.
Could not give out the Mariners at four to one
or even their World Series odds. I make them a
plus nine to fifty to win the World Series. You
can get them at eleven to one. Just wait if
they continue to play poorly, I would rather grab them
at a better number. If they play better. From here,

(23:20):
you already got a pretty good price. You get a
better price than you're getting currently. So if you already
have Seattle positions, hold, If you don't have Seattle positions,
I would still hold. The team I like in the
American League is the Tampa Bay Race at about plus
seven fifty. Not only right now do they project as
a value back. And that's important to keep in mind.
These numbers are based off of what teams currently have

(23:40):
on their roster. I could do whatever I want in
terms of like projecting out what teams might add at
the deadline, but I can't quantify it well enough that
I can tell you how these futures odds are going
to fluctuate. But if everybody, if status quo remained as is,
nobody made a move the Rays right now. I would
make about plus fifteen hundred to win the World Series.

(24:01):
You can get them as high as twenty five to one.
You can get them at plus seven fifty to win
the AL Pennant. I like that down to about six
to one. Project them as a value bet to win
the AL East. As I said earlier, if they win
the AL East, they will get a first round by
The AL East winner is very likely to not only
get a first round bye, but to be the number

(24:23):
one seed. Because the Mariners or the AL West winner
projects to have around eighty six wins, the Guardians or
the ALE Central winner projects to have around eighty five wins.
The ALE East winner between the Yankees and the race
should finish closer to nineties. So very very likely that
the East Winter gets a bye. If they get a bye,
those odds are going to be closer to four to

(24:45):
one or five to one rather than plus seven to fifty.
So it is correlated to the AL East future. But also,
and this is the more important point, the Rays are
going to add at the tread deadline, which is not
something you ever say. They've been very fourth right about
being public about the fact that they are going to
be aggressive trying to make a move at the trade deadline.

(25:07):
You have a legitimate ALSY young candidate and Drew Rasmus
in a legitimate ALAMVP candidate in Junior Caminaro. They have
some other interesting pieces around them, a pretty good bullpen.

Speaker 2 (25:18):
You could use a little bit more offensive support.

Speaker 3 (25:20):
You could maybe use one more starting pitcher, and let's
try to make o'bron to win the American League. Eric
Neander very publicly again has said that they are intending
to be aggressive at the trade deadline. They have new
ownership in place that is willing to spend. I think
the Rays, especially in a year before we may walk out,
are absolutely going to be adding to this roster.

Speaker 2 (25:41):
So give me the a's.

Speaker 3 (25:42):
The Rays to win the AL Pennant at plus seven
fifty and their mirror the teams we always talk about
in concert with one another, the Milwaukee Brewers to win
the NL Pennant at six to one. The Brewers also
if they win the NAL Central very well, not very
likely to get a bye because they are vine with
the Braves right now for the second seed. But right
now I project them as the number two seed in

(26:05):
the National League. I believe they currently hold the spot
as well, but I project them for ninety two wins.
I project the Braves for ninety one. I project the
Phillies for nineties. So I do have them edging out
those two teams for the number two seed and that
buy in the National League. I think Miserowski and Harrison
is the best one to two punch amongst starting pitchers
in baseball this year. We've seen Shane Drohan, We've seen

(26:27):
Robert Gasser. If we discussed level up a little bit,
Brandon Woodrooff has looked great in his past two starts.
Never know if he'll end up being healthy for October.
But if you're telling me you have Miserowski and Harrison
and Woodroof cooking in the playoffs, this team is going
to be very difficult to beat. And then on top
of that, you've already seen Cooper Pratt come up, who
they extended their young shortstop. You'll see Louis Larra their

(26:51):
future center fielder in short order. They still have Hazy's
made the number one prospects sitting in the minor leagues
who may be ready by September. I don't think he
will be especially the fact that they ended up promoting Pratt,
but Pratt Lara both excellent swing decision guys, guys who
walk more than they strike out in Triple A and
the Brewers one of the best farm systems in baseball
if they do want to go externally and make a

(27:13):
trade too. So I don't even think we've seen the
best version of this Brewers team. I think they're consistently
underrated by projections right now. In terms of my number,
I make them about twelve to one to win the
World Series, that is roughly what they are. But getting
six to one to win the Ano Pennant On a
team who I think their odds will be shorter by

(27:34):
playoff time than they are currently, I think I'm ready
to jump in on. So the Rays and the Brewers,
two teams. Again we've always talked about just being mirror
images of one another. I think one of these teams
breaks through this year. So give me both of them
at around plus seven to fifty and plus six hundred,
respectively to win their leagues, and then I'll consider adding
a World Series bet. And if I had a World

(27:54):
Series bet, it's probably gonna be a Milwaukee.

Speaker 1 (27:57):
I am completely on board with you on the Brewers,
I can't get there. On the Rays, I trust your
numbers obviously, and I agree that they might add. I
the other teams in the Al East also are expected
to add. We we talked about the Blue Jays. You
obviously see value on them to miss the playoffs. That

(28:18):
team is probably as likely as anyone in the American
League to add at the deadline, and they have probably
the best rotation depth outside of Seattle in the league
with Cese and Goussman. And again, Yesivich, you mentioned you
need to replace Patrick Corbyn in that rotation. You know,

(28:39):
see what they have in Shane Bieber as a fifth starter.
The Rays are I mean, I love the call out
of the race potentially adding. You know we saw even
in previous ownership they flirted with Bryce Harper all those
years ago.

Speaker 2 (28:52):
You know, Aurent Junior Crimenarro for Otani. That was a
real thing.

Speaker 1 (28:57):
Yeah, you look at team that most likely should trade
for Erk scouble Razor one want right next to the
Cubs in terms of teams that it would make the
most sense in terms of well, Rays even probably more
likely than the Cubs, just because they have the prospect
capital to give up that the Cubs probably don't. They
don't have much on the prospect pipeline behind Jackson Wiggins.

(29:20):
Probably the Rays don't really have any more like top end,
like top ten, top fifteen type prospects out there, But
they have twenty five guys who are like probably you know,
fifty to fifty five grade prospects. THEO Gillen is probably
the centerpiece of any any big trade that the Rays make.

Speaker 3 (29:43):
Yeah, I talk about the Braves trading for schoobl I
don't see the prospects and the Brave system to get there.
It's like, what are you gonna give up? Flintis and Waldroup?
Is that your package for school no change?

Speaker 1 (29:52):
Yeah? Yeah, it's it's I mean the reason that makes
sense is if the Tigers are not trying to completely
re shut it down and they're getting guys are who
are major league ready right now to like reload next
year because yeah, Waldrip Schwellenbach fuenttes uh their prospects, you know,
j R. Ritchie, the prospects beyond the the ready made

(30:18):
h mlb ers are are not not super enticing. Cam
Kimminetti maybe, but yeah, I with these teams that we
talk about all the time, the ones that confound expectations
or whatever. The Rays, the Brewers, the Guardians. You're either

(30:39):
with them or you're not. You're clearly with Tampa. I'm not,
and I can't really put my finger on it on
why that is. Uh. They need, you know, they need
a picture behind Rasmussen and mclanighan. I you know, I'm
not believing in Nick Martinez keeping this going all year.
I'm not believing in converted reliever Griffin Jack keeping this

(30:59):
going all year. We'll see what they do. Camon Aro,
Aroanda and Diez is a really solid, you know trio
in the middle of that lineup. How much are they
going to continue to get away with giving regular playing
time to Taylor Walls, Richie Pelasio, Cedric Mullins, Hunter Fidusha,
a catcher. It's really hard for me to give up

(31:21):
on Toronto, given you know, the everything you said is
completely valid. I just think there's too much talent there
for them to continue to play the way they have.
You could say the same thing about the Mets, and
we've all given up on the Mets. So yeah, I'm
not saying they're definitely going to turn things around. It's
just hard for me to give up on them, considering
they are so close to the team we saw come

(31:44):
a centimeter away from winning the World Series last year,
maybe even better in terms of depth. And yeah, they've
got all these all stars. So the one thing, the
one final point I'll make pivoting back over to Milwaukee
and y full agree with you on that there's always
gonna be value on Milwaukee because the Dodgers exist, and

(32:05):
because people have seen what the Dodgers. You know, the
Brewers are built for the regular season, the Dodgers are
built for the playoffs, right, That's what yeah, exactly the
Brewers this year and you alluded to it in your analysis.
Miserowski Game one, Harrison Game two is better than anything
the Brewers had in that playoff series last year. They

(32:25):
did not have the arms to contend with the Dodgers.
If those two teams played a seven game series. Right now,
the Dodgers are favored, but the Brewers have much They're
they're much better equipped for a postseason run this year
than they were last year with those guys. Obviously, a
lot can happen over the next three months. Everyone everyone,

(32:49):
whether no one wants it to happen, but everyone's waiting
for Misrowski to break down, Right, I'm gonna get into
that a little bit when we talk about awards. Harrison's
been a revelation. Brandon Woodruth. His velocity's down like four
miles an hour from his peak, but he keeps getting
it done. It's incredible. But yes, I'm very very much
a believer in the Brewers, and I think in the

(33:11):
NL you're just going to find more value because the
Dodgers exist in the National League. They don't in the
American League. There's no clear favorite, and so it's harder
to find value on these teams. I like that you
found value in the Rays.

Speaker 3 (33:24):
I forgot about Logan Henderson too, Jesus. Like, I think
Logan Henderson's also great, like a strike all right in
your twenty five percent. So yeah, Like, if I mean
the Daughters have all these guys on the IL, you
for them the hope that they get back by the
playoffs class now Snell, et cetera.

Speaker 2 (33:41):
The Brewers, you hope that they don't.

Speaker 3 (33:43):
Have these guys on the IL come September October, right, Like,
Henderson is kind of working his way back. So if
you're giving me three out of four of Misrowski. I
need Miserowski, but give me three out of four of
Harrison Woodroof and Henderson.

Speaker 2 (33:59):
Let's go.

Speaker 1 (34:00):
Yeah, Henderson looks like made a rehab start yesterday, so
he's just about back. I'd be curious, you know. I'm
sure you couldn't do this on the spot, but if
you end up writing about this or something, be curious
to see what wine you would make. A Brewers Dodger
seven game series right now?

Speaker 2 (34:17):
Yeah, I can regrect it out.

Speaker 1 (34:18):
Because I'm sure the Dodgers will be favored in every
single playoff series and almost every single playoff game. Misrawskiotani
game one. What's the line on that? You know, that's
that's a lot of fun to think about, but you
know that's where we're at. Brewers. Hey, if we want
this lockout, that's gonna happen next offseason to end quicker.

(34:41):
Nothing works in the players favor more than a Brewers
Raise World series.

Speaker 3 (34:46):
Yes, And I gotta tell you if I fired up
a new OTP sam first on twenty what is it?

Speaker 2 (34:54):
Twenty eight, twenty seven up.

Speaker 3 (34:56):
To the other day, started with the ever done the
mode where you start like in the middle of the
season with the current results. I took over the Giants,
you know, middle of the season, like rebuilding them World
Series Brewers over Ras or Raise over Brewers in seven.
So I thought that was that was pretty uh, pretty
humorous considering like where my futures takes were already going
on this pot But literally the first OTP twenty seven

(35:19):
sim that I completed.

Speaker 2 (35:20):
Was Raise over Brewers and seven.

Speaker 1 (35:21):
Well, I make all my future bets based on.

Speaker 2 (35:24):
OTP s absolutely, Who wouldn't.

Speaker 1 (35:27):
Yeah, that's Rob Manfred's nightmare right there, Raised Brewers World Series.
Maybe what Brewers Guardians? What would he hate more? Probably
Brewers Raised than Brewers Guardians in terms of a potential
World Series matchup. I don't know.

Speaker 2 (35:42):
I think Guardians is worse.

Speaker 1 (35:44):
I think it's worse for me as a viewer.

Speaker 3 (35:47):
It's worse for the Guardians at least have the storyline
of like the hate, the pain in the history. The
Rays don't have as rich of a painful history.

Speaker 1 (35:54):
So that's a good point. That's a good point. Soft
summer nights with some ice cream and sweating bets is good,
but the way to make it great is with Action Pro.
We've officially launched our summer sale to go along with
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(36:16):
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that's Actionnetwork dot Com Flash Pro for three months of
Action Pro for the price of two. But let's talk
awards though, Well, the.

Speaker 2 (36:32):
Highest part of awards is we basically get to skip
one of them.

Speaker 1 (36:35):
So that's yes NLMVP right now at DraftKings, Otani's minus
sixteen hundred PCA is thirty to one, Shorebust thirty five
to one. You can also at DK be bet Otani
versus the field Otani minus sixteen hundred any other player
plus nine hundred. You're basically getting nine to one odds
that Otani misses significant time with injury over the next

(36:58):
three months, not touching that. Al MVP Jordon Alvarez is
minus one fifty five. Nick Kurtz plus two to fifty,
Bobby wit Junior plus seven fifty, Ben Rice thirteen to one,
Junior Camenaro twenty to one. Let's start with MVP here.
I'm curious if you have any thoughts here again an LMVP,

(37:19):
not not touching it, staying away. We can stop talking
about it unless you have anything to say on NLMVP,
AL MVP. And this is going to be a trend
in my awards additions here, one of the things I
like about the prediction markets is that you can bet
no on some of these guys. Jordon Alvarez is the
MVP favorite, and for very good reason. At Calshey right now,

(37:42):
he's at fifty two percent Yes minus one seventeen No
minus one oh eight. I really like the no here,
just betting on Jordam's injury history. I don't know who's
going to win MVP if Jordon does suffer an injury,
and I'm not rooting for Jordon to get injured. He's
one of my favorite hitters in baseball to watch, kurtz Wit,
camon Aro, Rice, etc. Cody Bellinger way down the board

(38:05):
as one of the war leaders in baseball right now.
Really interesting. But if I just throw a no on
jord On Alvarez, it close to even money. I really
like that, and that's something that I'm going to do.
Just again. This guy hasn't been able to stay healthy
for a full season basically since his rookie year, and
he's playing for You know, we talk about we've mostly

(38:26):
gotten away from oh, they need to be on a
winning team, right, mostly gotten away? Mike Trout rid us
of that burden as betting on player futures, it's no
longer strongly considered. But if the Astros missed the playoffs,
if they're just mid the rest of the year and
Jordon misses three weeks, I don't know. I don't know

(38:49):
how much time he has to miss for this to happen.
But there's enough names behind him, and there's enough uncertainty
that I'm comfortable taking a no heret that of betting
on which guy overtakes him. Do you have any thoughts here, Sean?

Speaker 3 (39:04):
Yeah, so worth raidering off the top what matters to
MVP voters? So Fangraft's War the War Leader the War
ranking correlates about eighty percent to vote share. Thirty of
the past thirty two winners finished in the top three
in their league. In Fangraff's War, twenty one of thirty
were the leader. So war is hugely important. The only

(39:24):
other thing that comes close to it is OPS ranking.
OPS has a seventy one percent correlation to MVP winners.
The issue right now for Bobby Witt, who I do
project is the biggest value bet here is that every
winner since two thousand and one has had an OPS
of eight to fifty or higher except for each RO.
Right now, Wit is at eight twenty. I believe last

(39:45):
year he finished at eight sixty. Now, even with the
OPS being lower than eighty to fifty, is still your
current war leader in the American League. He's at four
point three. Dylan Dingler is second at three point seven,
Jordon is at three point six, Kevin McGonagall is it
three point four, and Nick Kurtz is at three point two.

Speaker 1 (40:06):
Go one more name down the list, Go one more
name down the list.

Speaker 2 (40:09):
Who's who's the six.

Speaker 1 (40:11):
Miceel Vargus three point zero.

Speaker 2 (40:12):
Oh, Miguel Vargus. We'll talk about Migel Vargas.

Speaker 3 (40:16):
So the only two guys, the only two guys on
that list, I wasn't gonna say, the only guy in
that list, The only two guys on that list who
are currently on winning teams quote unquote are Kurts kind
of Kurts is below of five hundred, but he's right
there in terms of the l West and migal Vargas. Now,
we did discuss the Tigers at length, and I think
they have the ability to work their way back into

(40:38):
the race. Kevin McGonagall projects to finish either fourth or
fifth in total war in the American League at the
end of the season. I make him a substantial favor
for Ale Rookie the Year, but he's currently one hundred
to one to win AL MVP. I don't think it's
a terrible bet considering where he's at where the Tigers are.

(41:00):
If the Tiger searge the rest of the way, it
is likely due to him in school, he's gonna end
up being the war leader on that team, probably, you
know better expressing the opinion as the AL MVP or
the AL Rookie the Year odds, especially considering those have
kind of become a little bit more reasonable. But one
hundred and one for Kevi mcgonagal for ALMVP is something

(41:21):
that did pop up as a potential edge because I
make him closer to thirty one. As I said Bobby Wit,
the biggest edge here. I make him about plus three eighty.
The market currently has him at plus seven point fifty.
I do have concerns about the OPS ranking compared to
jord On, but he does project not only as the
war leader in the American League. He projects the clear

(41:43):
of the field, but by about a win to a
win and a half.

Speaker 2 (41:46):
At the end of the year.

Speaker 3 (41:47):
He's currently point six up and he projects to finish
between one and one point five wins higher than everybody
by season zen. So Wit would have to be the
bet at plus seven fifty down to about plus four hundred.
If Jordan is able to maintain and stick around and

(42:07):
not get hurt and keep that one thousand ops, he
will probably win it, just because of that OPS qualifier
that I mentioned previously. But in terms of me modeling
it out with the war rankings, I would have to
bet with NLMVP. I think you said nine to one
for Field against Otani that that interests me a little bit.

(42:28):
I make Otani closer to minus seven hundred right now.
I mean I may be undervaluing him to a degree.
He's currently one point one war combined pitching and hitting
above PCA. PCA is at four point seven. Otani's at
three as a hitter two point eight as a pitcher.
You probably need him to get hurt like tomorrow or
in the next couple of weeks in order for PCA

(42:50):
to end up coming back in that race or one
of the pitchers. Mazerowski Sanchez. I think they would be
like potential considerations if Otani were to actually get hurt.

Speaker 2 (43:01):
But yeah, I'm not.

Speaker 3 (43:03):
Crazy about, you know, betting against the tany or finding
ways to bet against them, but nine to one for
the field against the Tawny does interest me slightly.

Speaker 2 (43:10):
But in the American League it's Wit or mcgonald.

Speaker 1 (43:14):
Yeah, it's hard. Even if Otani were to get hurt,
which again none of us are rooting for that, it's
hard to pick who would be the favorite after that,
Like I know, I mean it would literally be PCA
based on the betting odds right now, But I would
have no interest in betting PCA because he's too hot
and cold, like he's gonna have the war totals, because
his center field defense is amazing even when his bat falters.

(43:38):
But he's on the hottest of hot streaks right now,
and in a couple of weeks he'll go through a
stretch where he goes two for forty with twenty five strikeouts.
You know, he just has these hot and cold streaks
at the plate, so it's really hard to find. You know.
The interesting names are are like Jacob Mesrowski and Crisanchez,
you know for NL MVP. Yeah, or maybe James Wood

(44:02):
fifty five to one. But yes, we don't really need
to talk a lot about NLMVP because that's just where
we're at with Otani at this point. Cy Young Awards,
all right, al Cy Young, Cam Schlitzler right now our
favorite minus one fifteen at DraftKings, Dylan Cees. I know

(44:22):
you had a preseason position on him. I can't remember
if he was SI or strikeout leader or both. He's
down to three to one, Rasmussen nine to one, de
Gram thirteen to one, and then you have Gavin Williams
and Brian wu At thirty to one NL say Young,
Jacob Mizerowski minus two twenty five, Chris Sanchez plus three
point fifty schemes in sale twenty to one, and Burns,

(44:46):
Wheeler and Yamamoto thirty to round the thirty to one. Otani,
by the way, thirty five to one. Anything you're adding,
I do have thoughts particularly an NL, say Young Award,
but I will I get your take first on these
two respective markets.

Speaker 3 (45:04):
Yeah, I've ce SI third to one, forty to one.
I've youred on al MVP at like fifty to one
or something. So a couple of big, big numbers. Hopefully
you can get one of those home in addition to
currently have both Ale and I'll Rook of your favorites.
So in decent positions on the awards markets right now,
Ale sign is a little bit difficult because the two
guys that show the biggest edges on both may get traded.

(45:26):
It's Joe Ryan and Treks Google, who we discussed at
length in terms of the team futures. So it's a
little tough to place a vent on either guy considering
either of them could not be in the American League
in just a few weeks, if not even a few days,
depending on when these teams decide to actually make moves.
I also don't think Scoogle is going to get to
the innings needed in order to hit the mark. He's

(45:48):
only at fifty nine right now. Highest projection has him
the rest of the way at ninety. He can still
be the war leader, you know, not even clearing one
hundred and sixty innings. If anybody is going to break
the one hundred minimum one hundred and sixty five hundred
and seventy eighting threshold to win the cy Young, it
could be Tarrek Schooable in like one hundred and forty
five innings, he gets the lead the American League at
war in that low of a sample. Just the fact

(46:11):
that he may get traded is I would say likelier
than not to get traded at this point would keep
me for betting them, in addition to the innings factor.
In addition to the fact that he's already injured and
he's sitting on a potential contract this offseason, so he's
not going to pitch himself out of that if he
does end up getting digged again. Joe Ryan, I think
is the actual like biggest edge. I make him closer

(46:31):
to twelve to one. You can get him as high
as I think thirty to one. Seems like the Twins
are pretty convinced that they're trading him, and I don't
know which league he's gonna end up going to, So
al Sy Young is a little bit tough to bet
I would have loved to bet your Rasmisin, I may
grasp me in like sixteen to one. I think the
market has knocked him down to ten to one, so
there's not a ton of value there. We'll talk about

(46:51):
Parker Massic in ALE Rookie the year when we get there,
because I already mentioned McGonagall. Parker Messic is like way
higher at the Ale, say Young leader Ward than you
would exp for a rookie. He's been absolutely phenomenal. He
may end up getting fully robbed of any hardware this season.
He's one of the best pictures in the American League.
Just wanted to shout out Parker Messak and how high
I am on him currently and going forward. He's kind

(47:12):
of like the new Max Freed for me in terms
of effectiveness and the deceptive lefty.

Speaker 2 (47:17):
That nobody's really sure how good they are.

Speaker 3 (47:19):
And I think he's quite good and Elsay Young biggest
edge right now is actually Paul Skeins. I think Paul
Skeins may be injured or like dinged or something. You
look at the underlying indicators for Skeens, They're actually better
than they were last year. I think is like expected
fip his strikeout on his walk rate or better than
they were last year.

Speaker 2 (47:38):
The results have been much worse. Just seems like he's
missing something.

Speaker 3 (47:41):
And you know when when this is sound of total,
but when pictures like this, the peripherals are the same,
the v lo is the same, the stuff is the same,
but they aren't getting those punches with two strikes. They're getting,
you know, hint a little bit harder in general, but
everything else like looks the same. Usually it's an injury
red flag and you don't see it crop up until later.
I hope he's not injured, you know. I hope Paul

(48:02):
Skeens remains fully effective. I hope the pirates make the
playoffs and cash some of our bets. But I do
feel like there's something wrong with him right now that
I can't quite identify. He could just be going through
a bad stretch of luck. The model says he's a
volley bet to win. The NLCI Young Market has him
at about twenty to one. The model makes him closer
to ten to one or fifteen to one, and similar

(48:22):
with Chrissale, you can get him in around twenty to one.
My model makes him closer to ten or fifteen to one,
so a couple of very good pitchers who are inviable
long shot territory in that twenty to one range. Skiens
In Sale Wzarto I also bet at forty to one preseason.
I think he's closer to twenty five to one now.
Also showing a potential edge too. I think is Thera

(48:45):
got inflated earlier in the year. He's been pitched much
better of late. But skiens Sale seem like the main
targets in the NLSI young market for me w Zarto,
I think he's a twenty five to one. He's two
hundred fifty to one now. My apologize, and I make
him closer to thirty five to one. That's why he
popped up on the list. Two. Braxton Ashcraft is a
potential consideration as well. But all of that is leading

(49:06):
to your point, Colin, you think somebody could take it down.
Jacob Mizerowski the rest of the way, mis projects at
or He's currently at four point three. War Sanchez projects
the finish ahead of him byble Steamer and updated Fangrass
projections Sanchez six point three six point five, Misrowski five
point nine six point two. Schemes five point three five

(49:28):
point five, Sal four point six five point one. So
the top four the exact same order on either projection system,
but Sanchez in first on both of them may just
may have the better counting stats at the end of
the year. So I'm curious on your thoughts here in
both these leagues, Colin, because I really trust your pitching,
judgment and analysis, and I'm curious how you see these

(49:49):
shacking out.

Speaker 1 (49:51):
Yeah. Al, first, real quick, I don't really have a
ton of thoughts on the al, but I did want
to mention just kind of bring this analysis full circle
with our raised talk and them adding it the deadline
Joe Ryan, you know, to the Rays, you remember I don't.
I just want to real quick, little trivia question. Do
you remember the trade that brought Joe Ryan to Minnesota?

Speaker 3 (50:11):
I do?

Speaker 2 (50:12):
Nelson Cruz.

Speaker 1 (50:13):
Yeah, it was one of the few Everyone's like, oh,
he don't never trade with the Rays. The Rays whenever
he trade the race traded Joe Ryan for two months
of a forty something year old Nelson Cruz. Bad Yeah,
down the stretch there. So that would be a really
fun full circle moment if the Rays reacquired Joe Ryan.
You know, maybe if they're not in.

Speaker 2 (50:33):
The Schoogle sweep stake and trade some future Hall of
Fame bat for him.

Speaker 1 (50:37):
Yes, it's really hard for me to find anyone in
the al Cy Young, any of those kind of longer
shot guys to take down Schlitler. The interesting thing about
these races is that the two favorites are second year
guys who haven't pitched a ton of innings. Schlitzler has
thrown more innings than Misroowski and his creer, but Misroowski's
obviously been better. Miss Rowski's doing things no one's ever

(50:59):
seen before. Mesrowski's at ninety nine innings as we record
right now. He threw one hundred and twenty nine in
a third last year between Triple A and the Majors.
That's by far his career high. It's one hundred and
twenty nine and a third. You talked about this in
the preseason, Sean, when I'd throw out long shots for
strikeout leader for for Cy Young, You'd say, I just

(51:19):
don't think he's got the innings for it. You know,
the guys like Chase Burns or guys coming back from injury.
I'm trying to even remember some of the guys I mentioned,
but you you'd say, I don't think they're going to
have the innings. The Brewers aren't going to shut down
Misrowski unless there's a reason. But there could very easily
become a reason for that, just because again, we're never

(51:41):
rooting for injuries, we're never trying to forecast injuries. But
he's doing things that we've never seen before with this
one hundred and five mile an hour stuff. At this
type of volume, it's just unheard of. And so if
I'm looking at it from a value perspective, I'm betting
that it doesn't continue, you know, even even even irrespective

(52:05):
of oh, he'll probably regress a little bit from like
a production standpoint, I just don't know if he's going
going to be able to So I guess the best
way to put it is, if we're looking at a
most likely rest of season for Misrowski, maybe we look
at a little bit of regression from a production standpoint.

(52:25):
He has a one point four to five era right now,
and maybe we look at a little bit fewer innings.
But he breaks one sixty two right he qualifies me
uh Blake Snell his two cy Young Awards. He threw
one hundred and eighty innings. I think that's probably the
lowest from it.

Speaker 3 (52:41):
I think Burns was like one sixty seven maybe or Ray.
Either Burns or Ray was like one, just around one seventy.

Speaker 1 (52:47):
I looked at Ray, I didn't think to look at
Corbyn Burns. U Ray was like one ninety. Uh Corbyn
Burns his sy Young was one hundred and sixty seven. Yeah,
call uh. But Misrowski's probably gonna get there barring serious injury.
But say he gets a little bit, a little bit
of regression, say that, other say that him and Sanchez

(53:12):
end up pretty close to each other. The thing is
Sanchez is gonna throw two hundred and thirty innings. If
I'm voting and these numbers are similar, I'm going with
the guy who throws fifty more innings, and that's going
to be Chris Sanchez. However, all of that said, I'm
too big of a coward to just throw money on

(53:33):
Chris Sanchez. Or maybe I just don't see as much
value at you know, five to one, or yeah plus
three fifty at DraftKings plus five twenty eight right now
at call she, I'm just gonna bet against Misrowski. Misrowski
no to win Nlci Young right now is plus one
fifty eight at call she. I love getting plus money

(53:54):
on that. I love getting plus money to bet no
on a favorite who's never thrown the many innings before.
I liked it with jord On Alverz. I like it
way more with Miserrowski. I'm not rooting against him. He's
he is the story of the season right now. Right
we have finally found a guy who is taking headlines
away from Shoheo Tani. It hasn't happened in like five years,

(54:17):
but that's how good Misrowski's been right now. I'm just
betting on it, not continuing, because you know, it's not
fun to bet against fun, but that's kind of what
we're doing here with Miserowski.

Speaker 3 (54:29):
So No.

Speaker 1 (54:29):
Plus one, p. Fifty eight. I will say, if there's
a long shot, I'm willing to throw money on you.
Threw a couple names out there, Paul Skien's being the
most valuable one. The one I'm looking at is Yoshinobu
Yamamoto at thirty to one. Yoshinobu Yamamoto again doesn't make
a lot of headlines, but he just goes out there
and throws six innings of one run ball with eight
strikeouts in one walk every single time out there. He's

(54:52):
sitting here right now with a two six seven ERA.
His strikeouts are down, but he's not walking anyone, not
giving up any home runs. I don't know if his
war total will contend with the other guys toward the
end of the year, but if we see slip up
from Sanchez, we see slip up from Miserowski. Yamamoto is
gonna throw more than two hundred innings. He's probably gonna
strike out more than two hundred batters, and you know

(55:15):
he's gonna be the best pitcher on the best team
in baseball. Now, we talk about workload. Nobody had a
higher workload than him down the stretch last year. But
he's in his prime and he's thrown this many innings
before in his career. So if I were throwing a
long shot dart throw out there, it would probably be
Yamamoto at thirty to one. I'm not sure. I'll be
curious to hear what your projection is for him, But

(55:36):
in terms of what I really like in this market,
it's just a no on Miserowski. It's it's not fun
he's the best story in baseball right now. But I
just feel like, if I'm getting better than or less than,
if I'm getting better than even money on something to
happen to him over the next three months, I think

(55:57):
that's too good to pass up. I could agree.

Speaker 3 (56:00):
I make him about plus one eighty to win the
NLSA Young, So getting plus one fifty on him not
to win the LSA Young is a humongous edge. Right Uh,
he's currently around Mattin is two twenty to win it.
The only pushback I would give with Yamamoto, and it's
somebody we did not discuss because the workload is also
going to be a concern is sho Hee Otani. Otani
sitting at seventy nine innings projects for around seventy the

(56:23):
rest of the way. Some projections as low as forty eight,
others as high as seventy. It really depends what the
doctors need down the stretch, whether they can kind of
take the foot off the gas pedal with him. But
you know, in total, you're looking at one hundred and
forty innings, maybe one hundred and fifty for Otani. I
don't think that's quite enough. But with his era, as

(56:45):
low as it is, you know, if he maintains it,
if he has the best same Asowski gets blown up
a little bit or gets put on the il. Say,
show Hey is at like a one seven five ERA
and everybody's at like two twenty five. And even though
Sanchez has thrown eighty more innings than him, Shoh is

(57:05):
still going to get some votes because he's showy. So
that that is my main concern with Yamamoto is his
teammate is going to be too efficient, is going to
steal some votes from him, may steal some I don't
know how many Japanese media members vote for these awards,
but maybe steal some Japanese votes now, just may steal
some votes that from people who are paying attention to

(57:27):
that team because they're like Yamamoto, you know, better stats,
but not the best picture on his team, right like
Otani may be viewed as the better guy.

Speaker 2 (57:35):
That's where it gets a little bit difficult with MVP
is a little bit more like cut and dry, like
who had the best season?

Speaker 3 (57:41):
You know, who had the highest war total. That's why
war correlates so highly. If you have if you're a
DH and you have a really high ops like they'll
make exceptions for the war thing with you weren't on
with pictures. It's so it's so tough because you know,
even going back to like the the Picture of the
Month award that Miserowski and Sanchez were competing for, was like, yes, Sanchez,

(58:01):
you know, Menzarowski is like, the more eye popping stats,
the better strikeout numbers. But Sanchez just threw more innings
and you know, allowed the same number of runs or
fewer runs and more innings, and everybody's like, yeah, the
innings kind of went out there, all things being equal,
you think the wins went out. But when the era
starts to get you know, a half a run apart,
eight tens of a run apart, or you know, when

(58:23):
Schemes won Rookie of the Year, right, Jackson Merrill had
a higher war total, a better season, but Skeens had
the more efficient season. He was better in the time
that he actually played. And I do think with cy Young,
I think we're getting to a progression where voters are
just going to kind of pitch for the guy who
was like the best, regardless if they had the best

(58:44):
full season. So sure, I think we may see sort
of a change in voter behavior a little bit more
towards that Rookie of the Year style voting, where they're
just like, who who, if they were able to stay healthy,
had the best season, or who in the innings that
they pitched at the best season. And that's just kind
of my point on Otani, where I worry that Otani
throws one hundred and fifty innings and he wins it

(59:04):
just because he has like a ridiculous ra and everybody's like, yeah,
but you know, if he was a full time pitcher,
like he would have been able to make thirty stars,
you know. So that's just like kind of where my
mind goes with Otani is I feel like people are
going to make exceptions for him because he's a two
way player, and making exceptions for him and his Cy
Young stats and his pitching stats may not be appropriate,
but it may happen anyway.

Speaker 2 (59:26):
So just wanted to shout that.

Speaker 1 (59:27):
Up before we move on to Rookie of the Year.
I did just want to throw out it feels almost
unfair that we've had this long conversation about say Young
and we've barely said the name of the al Cy
Young favorite, Cam Schlitzler, I talk about Misrowski taking headlines
away from everyone. He's taking headlines away from the other
amazing young pitchers in baseball. Cam Schlitzler Chase Burns also

(59:48):
throw out there would be a Cy Young favorite and
almost any other year with how good he's been for
the Reds. But Cam Schlitzler, al Cy Young favorite right
now has a one six two ERA one hundred and
eighteen strikeouts to twenty walks in one hundred innings. I'm
just curious, you know, he's sitting at one minus one fifteen.
I'm just curious what you make of Schlitzler's Like what

(01:00:09):
odds you give him? What you make of his season today?
Obviously no value on a guy that young at minus
one fifteen, But what do you see like fair odds
for someone like Schlitler?

Speaker 3 (01:00:19):
Like plus two thirty is where I would put him
right now? I make Cease like seven to one. Rass
me sin like eleven to one, So rass me sin
at you know, twelve to one. If I was able
to get fifteen to one and Drew Rasmisin, that would
be a bet. I consider I have Joe Ryan at
twelve to one, d Gram at thirteen to one, Schooble
at twenty to one, Massac at twenty seven to one.
So just like kind of seeing how by board scales

(01:00:41):
a little bit there, I think. I think if I'm
picking names in either of these markets, it's ras me,
Sin and Schemes, and those would be my single bullets.

Speaker 2 (01:00:53):
The rest of the way.

Speaker 1 (01:00:55):
Schlitzler, I couldn't quite get there the same way I
could get there with Misrawski on the No. Plus one
oh five. Schlitler to not win al sit young, which
is kind of interesting to me.

Speaker 3 (01:01:05):
All Right, I'm sitting on a seized ticket. I think
Cease is the closest to him, so I'm just gonna
provide that out. But uh, yeah, I think Schuitzler is great,
and I think he's deserving of the stats he's put up.
I think he's I think he's like almost right there
with Miserowski in terms of effectiveness. I'd rate miss slightly better,
but uh they're they're both incredibly good, you know. I

(01:01:25):
should say, though, like Schlittler has the rolling leader board,
he's he's gone down a little bit. He was my
SP one s P two for a large part of
the season. He's gone down in my sp nine now,
so Miserowski remains my sp one. I have about a
half a run in terms of effectiveness between them. I
do project your ras Meisen as a better starter than
Cam Schlitzer, so take that for what you will. I

(01:01:46):
have school Ball, Bryce Miller Rasmisin all ahead of Schlitler
right now. I think Schuitler can be better. But in
terms of my like sample that's pulling into this data
and automating, I do have ras Mesin ahead of him.
So yeah, I would, I would definitely and we'll definitely
considered to rasp met.

Speaker 1 (01:02:03):
All right, let's jump over to Rookie of the Year
before we get out of here. Al Rookie of the Year.
And I was listening to I was a guest on
the Baseball Perspectives podcast five and Dive with our former
guest of our podcast, Craig Goldstein, Jeffrey Patt and ostro
Patrick Debuke, and they were talking on their recent episode
about how the Rookie of the Year awards seemed kind

(01:02:24):
of wrapped up. Kevin McGonagall in the American League, JJ
Weatherholt in the National League. They've been very similar players,
very steady. They look like veterans already out there. Both
of them weather a lot better with the glove at
this point in his career. Mcgonaga's probably a second basement
long term, but curious to see where the value lies here.
These Rookie of the Year is kind of my my market.

(01:02:46):
I love Rookie the Year, you know, I come from
a prospect background, and I look at these and I
can't bring myself to bet against Kevin McGonagall for American League.
We just talked about him as an MVP candidate potentially.
I'm to the point where I look at him at
minus one ninety at DraftKings and I kind of just
want to add bets to him because I feel like
minus one ninety isn't enough. The only thing that's stopping

(01:03:09):
him is injury. He's actually minus one sixty eight at
calls you right now, and I might go ahead and
fire on that as soon as we get off this recording.
The worry about betting someone in an awards market at
minus money at this point is the injury risk. And
there are a lot of al Rookie of the Year
candidates right now who are having really good Rookie of

(01:03:32):
the Year caliber seasons. In any other year, where Kevin
McGonagall didn't exist. Yes, Munataka Morrikami is gonna be back soon.
He's gonna hit thirty five home runs. Maybe Travis Bizana
has been really good for Cleveland. Kazuma Okamoto just got
really hot for the Blue Jays. You have guys like
Peyton Toley, Samuel Bissaio, Parker Messick. I had you know,

(01:03:52):
I hadn't even mentioned one of the best pitchers in
the American League. The only reason I'm not betting McGonagall
at this number is because there are so many good rookies.
But if everything stays status quo the rest of the year,
McGonagall is winning that award kind of hands down. He looks,
you know, I heard one comparison that it was like

(01:04:14):
he has such control of the strike zone it's almost
very bondsish Like. Obviously that seems like hyperbolic because you're not,
but just like in terms of confidence with the strike zone,
that's what McGonagall is displayed already. It infuriates me. I'm
obviously a very anti Tiger's person in general, but like,

(01:04:36):
you just never think that that guy is gonna get
beat by someone. If he loses an at bat. It's
because of bad luck variance, or he beat himself in
some way. He's not gonna get beat in an at bat.
Thoughts on McGonagall any any value in the AL Rookie
of the Year race.

Speaker 2 (01:04:52):
For you now all of the bonds icon.

Speaker 3 (01:04:55):
I've had several bets in the ninth inning where mcgonad
is coming up against me, and I'm just like, oh
my god, this fucking guy, because you just know he's
gonna put together a flawless played appearance. And like you said,
if he gets out, it's probably because he ripped the
liner right at somebody, like he just doesn't it's it
feels impossible to like get this guy out with ease.
He currently is at three point four wins, but replacement

(01:05:18):
I believe Weatherholt is at three point one, so they're
both pacing for over five war on the year. Absolutely
incredible rookie seasons.

Speaker 2 (01:05:27):
Colin.

Speaker 3 (01:05:28):
This is this is just you know, I'm gonna play
a little game here. How many shortstops do you think
I rank ahead of Kevin McGonagall in terms of overall
skill sets, so like you know, offensive quality, defense based running.
How many shortstops do you think I rank ahead of McGonagall.
Where do you think he ranks among the shortstops, And
then where do you think Weatherholt ranks among my second basemen.

Speaker 1 (01:05:52):
I would say that you have the only guy I
think you confidently have ranked ahead and shortstop is Bobby
with Junior second base for Weatherhole, I don't think you
have more than two or three guys ranked ahead of
them in the ad either position. That's where I'm us.

Speaker 3 (01:06:09):
I have McGonagall is my third best shortstop, wait Lindor McGonagall,
Ellie de la Cruz, I have Weatherholt as my number
one second basement Weather Hoole, Xavier Edwards, Bryce Terrang I think,
and then kateel Marte. I think you can reorder those
guys somewhat. You know, it's kind of like a rough
ranking based upon a bunch of different skills, but it's
shows you these guys are already superstar players. They're both

(01:06:31):
gonna clear five wins above replacement on the season. If
I'm picking against McGonagall right now, if I didn't have
any bets right now, Parker Messik at twenty seven to
one is a big number compared to the stats that
he is putting up Kauzzuma. Akamoto is about twenty two
to one. I make him closer to twelve to one.
He's pacing for three and a half win season. Messik

(01:06:52):
is pacing for three and a half to four win season,
and then Murakami you just have to mention too. Just
going back to that schemes schemes merrill debate that I
discussed earlier. Or if Murakami comes back and does finish
with thirty five homers but only does it in four

(01:07:13):
hundred and fifty plate appearances, he's going to get votes.
He will still get first play his votes because he's
going to have the better counting stats than McGonagall. People
will disregard the war for Rookie of the Year like
they do not do for MVP. So just worth noting,
I do not think your Murakami tickets are dead. He
needs to come back and hit like he was hitting previously.
But if he has significantly better counting stats than McGonagall,

(01:07:35):
there will be an argument for him at the end
of the year. So I'm not betting against McGonagall. If
I was, it would be Massacarakamoto. And if you have
a Murakami ticket, do not tear it up yet because
I don't think it's fully dead and O Rookie of
the Year actually make weather Hold a I think I
make a weather Hold a bigger favorite than I do.
Mcgonagal at this point, which seems a little bit bizarre,

(01:07:58):
may need to reek out the ratings. It could be
the guys behind them on the list that is skewing
it somewhat. But looking down the list, looking down the board,
Nolan McLain, I make about plus seven fifty. He's the
guy I have closest in terms of the handicap. Carson
Bene I make thirty to one. He's the other potential
value beat that popped up. So a couple of my

(01:08:19):
Mets aj ewing down there as well. The Mets have
some good rookies. McClain seemed like he fell off, found
it a little bit two starts back, lost it a
little bit. In his last start. He's messing around with
his pitch mix. Seemed like he was having more success
with his sinker than he was with his four seamer.
Went back to the four seamer, started getting hit around
a little bit more. But the point is both these

(01:08:39):
guys pacing for over five war. I don't see many
guys worth taking shots against them with. If I was,
probably Parker Messick and Akamoto in the American League and
then McClain in the National League. But I think both
of these guys, as you said, are definitely pacing for
superstar seasons, for five plus win seasons, and are looking

(01:09:00):
like relatively prohibitive favorites in these markets.

Speaker 2 (01:09:03):
But yeah, I think you know that. Let's put it
this way, I'm a little bit more interested in that
Otani nine to one. Feel.

Speaker 3 (01:09:10):
Against Otani at nine to one, then I might be
in taking shots against either of these Rookie of the
Year contenders right now.

Speaker 1 (01:09:17):
A couple things in the American League. By the way,
Parker Messick's forty five to one on Kalshi right now,
I don't know if I know he's like twenty five
to one. In a lot of other places, forty five
to one might make me consider pulling the trigger.

Speaker 2 (01:09:30):
The other that's a big number.

Speaker 1 (01:09:32):
The other thing, I'll say, if it's close, and it's
at best gonna be close. I find it hard to
put a bet on one of the Japanese imported players
in Okamoto and Marikami, because I think that there are
voters who straight up will be like, this guy's not
a rookie.

Speaker 2 (01:09:51):
Not a rookie.

Speaker 1 (01:09:53):
So even in a scenario where Morakami or Okamoto close
the gap on McGonagall, if it's like, oh boy, we're
at the end of the season and it's a real
toss up, I'm going with McGonagall because again, there are
voters who will just say, I can't vote for the
twenty seven year old over the twenty one year old,
you know.

Speaker 3 (01:10:11):
Because hilarious. That that's I think that's a great, great
analysis by you. Do you know what the specific example
we have of that happening is.

Speaker 1 (01:10:19):
I do, but I can't remember. It's in the back
of my head. Remind me.

Speaker 3 (01:10:25):
Two thousand and three AO Rookie of the Year on
Helbaroa got twelve first place votes. Hideki Matt Sue only
got ten, rock About Delli got five. But essentially people
were like, yeah, Matt Sue is the best hitter, but
we're gonna give it to the guy who's actually a rookie.

Speaker 1 (01:10:39):
Yeah they're or not. I mean, they're eligible, they're rookies
by MLB's definition. So personally, I don't think it's fair.
I think if there's a fairness to be had. It's
maybe MLB should consider not qualifying them as rookies. That's
a conversation that's neither here nor there. They are rookies,
they are on the ballot. You should consider them just

(01:11:02):
like anyone. It's the same thing with pictures for MVP.
A lot of guys won't bet on a picture form MVP.
They'll say, you've got your own award and it takes
something otherworldly for a guy like kershaw Verland or whatever
to win.

Speaker 3 (01:11:12):
I think about that with each your own Rookie of
the Year. It's like each got the MVP, you could
get the Rookie of the somebody else.

Speaker 1 (01:11:19):
So yeah, interesting stuff there in the NL. I actually
it's more like probably what's the word I'm looking for here,
it's it's more narrative based here. But I think there's
value in Connor Griffin here if you can get him

(01:11:40):
north of ten to one. This guy was the favorite
coming into the year, came up, scuffled a little bit,
got hurt. He's he really was coming on when he
got hurt, came back from the IL the other day,
hit a home run in his first game back. I
could see a narrative where this guy at nineteen years old,

(01:12:00):
has a red hot last three months leads the Pirates
to the playoffs. JJ weatherholt for as good as he is,
It's been kind of an anonymous season because nobody really
talks about the Cardinals, even though they even better than expected.
If I walked past JJ Weatherhold on the street, I
wouldn't recognize him because nobody His face isn't anywhere. Connor
Griffin's face is everywhere, and if it ends up close,

(01:12:24):
they're gonna go with the nineteen year old former first
overall pick on a playoff Pirates team. So I'm sitting
here looking at Connor Griffin and I'm just like projecting
a potential red hot second half to the season, and
I think that if you're getting him at less than
ten percent odds to win this award, that's worth that's

(01:12:46):
worth a sprinkle. I'm not gonna sit here and say
throw a full unit hunter or anything like that, but
that is the one underdog I look at in this
race and see value on the Nolan mcclinkings.

Speaker 2 (01:12:59):
Really interest him.

Speaker 3 (01:13:00):
Forth I have him, I have whether Hope, McClain, Stewart
and the Griffin. So I think you're you're on the
right track.

Speaker 1 (01:13:05):
Yeah. Bryce Elder just sitting there seven to one too.
I don't think that's going to happen, but he's He's
been pretty impressive as a rookie. The McClain thing is
interesting to me because I feel like expectations for McLain
were almost too high before the season for him to win.
McLean has been perfectly fine. He's had a couple of
blow ups. He's had a rookie season you would expect
a rookie pitcher to have. But people expected him to

(01:13:27):
be what Cam Schlittler is this year, and because he
hasn't been what Camp Schlitler is, people are disappointed and
they're not going to vote for him, and that makes
it really tough. Again, with some of these awards, you
really got to think about the narrative because you're trying
to predict the opinions of thirty random people across the
country essentially, And with McLain it's hard to get there
for that reason. Same with the Japanese hitters in the

(01:13:49):
American League, it's hard to get there. But yes, in
a l Rookie of the Year, salth Stewart is really
worth mentioning. I think he kind of dipped a little
bit after his absolutely red hot start to the season,
but he's been really good. But if I'm seeing a
contender to JJ Weatherhold's crown there, it's the guy who
everyone expected to win it coming into the year. It's
very reminiscent to me of Gunner Henderson in twenty twenty three.

(01:14:15):
He was the presumptive favorite coming into the year. Everyone
was kind of anointing him before that season even started,
and his first two months of that season were terrible.
I ended up jumping in on him at like eighteen
to one or something like that at the beginning of June.
He ended up with a six win season and one

(01:14:35):
Rookie of the Year. I don't know if it's not
the exact same path for Connor Griffin, And obviously Connor
Griffin is three years younger than Gunner was then, But
similar thing where where when the guy who everyone expected
finally gets there by the end of the year, his
numbers might be comparable in everything except the counting stats
because he spent some time on the IL and Weatherold's

(01:14:56):
also been there since opening day. But yeah, is my
poll there anything else we've jumped through pretty much everything
I see. There's MLB draft ods, Rock Schelowski minus two
twenty five to go number one overall to my Chicago
White sucks. Any other any other future thoughts, any other
future takes before we get out of your sean.

Speaker 2 (01:15:19):
You know, I feel like I ran best and worst
record and now I can't find it. So if you'll
bear with me, yeah, the vamp.

Speaker 3 (01:15:26):
While I try to find this, I might be able
to pull it up, but no, I largely you know,
I think my takes have centered around two teams in
common or three teams in common. I think the Tigers
can come back. I think McGonagall would be a big
reason why. I think the Astros and the Brewers are teams.
I've been higher on the market and continue to remain

(01:15:49):
that way. I think I've remain low on the Padres
and Astros and continue to fade those teams in terms
of actually making the playoffs. And I think the awards
markets are largely lined correct. I don't know if I'm
going to end end up adding too much there aside
maybe from a Drew Rasmisen speculation, but again that ties
back to the Ray's opinions. So yeah, I'll sort of

(01:16:10):
correlated the player futures takes, the team futures takes. I
may end up writing something up. If I do, I
will include those best and worst records odds the rest
of the way, But just keep an eye on opening pitch.
I may throw some futures updates in there. Keep an
eye on my content hub. I may write a separate
article in terms of putting these futures projections into But

(01:16:32):
thank you for tuning in and joining us on this
future's update journey. I know it is a lot of information,
but hopefully you found something actual to take away with you.

Speaker 1 (01:16:41):
Yeah, Angels plus four seventy five four worst record right now.

Speaker 3 (01:16:44):
By the way, I'm looking to take a team that's
not the Rockies. I just want to figure out which
is the right one, and that may be the right one.

Speaker 1 (01:16:51):
Yeah, all right, we'll stay tuned to that. Sean will
have plenty more stay glued to the action app or hell,
all the futures he gives. Got the All Star break
coming up, We'll have some I'm sure some red hot
home run derby analysis. I love betting the home run derby.
You can call you right now. You can bet on
who's going to be a home run derby participant, which
I think is this year thankfully either no clock this

(01:17:14):
year no clock controversy are our old friend Darren Ravel
can breathe aside side of relief on that one. All right,
that's gonna do it for today's episode of Payoff Pitch.
Thanks so much for tuning in again. If you'd want
to tail some well, I guess I'll probably want to
have quick slips for this episode because futures are a

(01:17:35):
little weird. But stay glued to the award winning action
app Download Subscribe to pro Sean will be throwing his
futures in the app if he decides to add any uh.
If you're a pro subscriber, you get those push alerts
to your film the second he tracks them. If you
are not a pro subscriber, even if you have push

(01:17:56):
alerts turned on thirty minute delay before those pop up
on your phone, the odds move because Shanzarella, one of
the sharpest time I will be betters there is moves lines.
We'll be back. I think this is going up Monday night,
so we'll be back. Be sure to tune in to
Payoff Pitch for more daily best bets Tuesday morning, ten

(01:18:17):
am Eastern on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast.
Also Friday, ten am Eastern on YouTube as well. For Shonzarella,
I'm Colling Richard. Thanks so much for tuning in to
pay Off pitch Action Networks, Major League Baseball betting podcast.
We'll see you next time. Heard of this crowd on

(01:18:43):
his street. What a trigger.

Speaker 2 (01:18:46):
No One Watch Day

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