July 7, 2026 • 30 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch, Tanner McGrath, and Grant Neiffer team up to break down the Tuesday's MLB slate. The crew dives into sides, totals and dingers with a prop on a matchup between two of our hosts teams. Using the MLB 20–80 scouting scale, they grade their most confident plays and highlight where they’re finding the most value across the board. Tune in to hear their top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Check out the video version of today's show on Action Network YouTube page for a sneak peak. Rate, review and subscribe to the show wherever you watch or listen so you don't miss us every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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11 - 60-GRADE BETS
21 - 40-GRADE BETS
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
No crying, and this game's other way the wind up.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It is springstoperating, Josh the bit out sign. Here's a
drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos, who will be
a home run. And hello to time you talk about
a roll of the dice.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff pitch Welcome to Payoff Pitch Action Networks.
Major League Baseball Betting Podcast. It is Tuesday, July seventh.
I'm Colin Whitchurch, joined today by Grant Nefert and Tana
McGrath to break down this busy fifteen game MLB slate.
(00:53):
There's one afternoon game today Bruce Cardinals getting started about
two fifteen Eastern.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Not sure why.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Kind of random day game in Saint Louis, but Jacobs.
Speaker 3 (01:05):
Makeup makeup game from early early math.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Ah, so as there's oh, there's sixteen games today, double
header Bruce Cardinals, doubleheader today. I'm very prepared. Jacob Mizowski
on the mound in that early game though, so nice
one to check out.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Against either Hunter Dobbins or Dustin May. Those two are starting.
They don't know which game yet.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
There we go.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
I don't think we have any bets on those games,
so we will. We will carry on. Eighty grade bets
are our best bets for the slate. It looks like
Tanner has one, I have one. Grant has two dingers
to give out. Tanner. I'll start with you Diamondbacks Padres
tonight in San Diego. The really really really shaky Zach
(01:51):
Gallon on the mound for the Diamondbacks as he's been
for most of this year. Padres. I don't think the
Padres have officially announced their starting pitcher tonight, Herman Marquez,
I believe is who were projecting. But Tanner, you have
a play on the total.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
I'm pretty sure they have. They not formally announced Marquez.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
They have, Oh okay, they have.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Yeah, yeah, so it's good Scalon versus Marquez. Good thing too,
because that's like, you know, half the handicap. But yeah,
I like the over over eight and a half minus
one twenty or better. I'm pinch hitting for our own
Sean Zarillo today, and I wanted to throw this in
here because this is Zerrilla's largest largest projected edge on
today's slate. The reason I know that is because of
our new Pro Baseball betting tool, bar Tolo. Underneath the
(02:33):
opening pitch get a pro scripture subscription to check out
that tool. You can just check in and see where
the biggest edges lie. And that is how I found
this bet because he projects nine point six runs for
this game, and I do think a large part of
that projected edge is the umpire Lance Barksdale one of
the most hitter friendly umpires in the game. I think
Derek Cardi's The Bad X has them as the fifth
(02:54):
most hitter friendly umpire among all MLB umpires. Zerrillo Jucks
adjust his projection up a full four percentage points for Barksdale,
but it's also not hard to bet an over in
this pitching matchup between Zach Allen and Herman Marquez. I mean,
Herman's rolling CSW rate is under twenty percent and his
rolling expected FIP is over seven as a result, and
(03:17):
the hope that going from cors to Pecco would kind
of like revive this guy seems to be lost. He
can't miss bats, so he tries to nibble his zone
that results in walks, and when he does throw stuff
in the zone, he gives up loads of hard to
contact because his stuff is terrible. Also worth mentioning that
it is only above average pitch by stuff plus the
knuckle curve has dipped to exactly one hundred stuff plus
(03:37):
or league average. That is a career low for him.
He's also struggled to get lefties out this year four
to fifteen wOBA allowed negative strikeout minus walk right. Marte
and Perdomo will bat lefty here to combine with Corbyn
Carroll to give them what three south paws to the
top of the lineup and the stakes. Also, I've said
this a million times in this podcast, really deep lineup.
(03:58):
I love this lineup, you know, top end ten on
at the top, elite talent or elite depth all the
way down. Unfortunately for them, Zach Gallant is a shell
of himself. As what Church mentioned, he is allowed fifty
five earned runs over his past sixty three innings. That's
crazy career low rates. And stuff swing and misrates, strikeout
rates all as bad at ball numbers have cratered. Batters
(04:20):
are smashing his fastballs in the zone. They're not chasing
his curve ball anymore or really any of his secondary stuff.
And unless there's like a drastic change to his arsenal
or style or something, the Diamondbacks have to do something.
I think things will stay the same. The only reason
I'm worried about this over is because I like both
the bullpens. I like both the defenses too, and Peco
is typically a pitcher's park, But no Adrian Morejon for
(04:40):
the paths today after you toss sixty two pitches in
the past six past three days, excuse me. And San
Diego's defense doesn't project out that well. Also, the Padres
lineup just has serious pop. I feel like this has
blow up potential for one or both starters written all
over it. I think over eighty and a half is
a good price. I think it should be at least nine.
And also if you want to target like the early
games or like the like a year fee or a
(05:01):
first five over, I don't hate that because it feels
like a lot of the scorings that come against the
starters from the top of the lineup, especially for Arizona
against Marquez.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
But I'm just on the full game over it almost
feels too good to be true. Total that low with
Dalen and Marquez on the mound. That's the only reason
I would have both. I'm like one of the books
know that we like why why is the total? So
I mean it suck.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
It just has to be Petco, right, But Peco is
no longer like the like, like, you know, one of
the most picture friendly parks in baseball. It's you know,
maybe a bottom ten, but it's like a minus five
percent runs, you know, park factor.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
So exactly, I agree with you, all right, going from
hoping for offense in San Diego to hoping for a
couple of dingers in d C. Grant two home bets
here in Astros Nationals crazy game last night, the Astros
jumped out to a six to one lead after like
three innings. The Nationals came back. It was twelve to
(05:58):
six in the fifth. Thinking while everyone was watching Team
USA and Belgium, I was paying attention to Nationals Astros,
you know. And then the Astros came back. I think
twelve to eleven was the final there in DC. Tonight,
Tatsu Am i on the mound again for the Astros.
Very confusing season for Am put together a couple of
(06:21):
really good starts and then got blown up his last
time out against the Twins, and Grant you're targeting a
couple of Nats hitters tonight against him.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
I yeah, My, he's been up and down the season.
Obviously I got blown up last game, but the one
thing he struggled with pretty heavily has been lefty power,
giving up a one point nine to one home runs
per nine so far on the season. The weather, I mean,
what the game should play, when it will play, I
don't know, but I think regardless throughout the night, it's
(06:49):
going to be eighties decent humidity, so the ball should
be flying well. And the odds on these two guys
are just far too high. I mean the first one
to c J Abrams, I got a plus five hundred.
You can still get him out. I think plus four
eighty where depending on where you're looking, A lot of
places all the way down at plus four hundred, But
I still even like him at that. He's been fantastic
(07:10):
this season. Matchup is good. Getting plus four hundred on
him just seems or plus five hundred seems ridiculous. Plus
four hundred still has some value. And then the other guy,
Luis Garcia Junior got him at plus four fifty nine.
I think you can still get him right around that number.
He's been on it absolute tear over the last couple
of weeks. I've gotten him a few times, didn't go
(07:32):
for me last night. But I'm going right back to
the well here again. Good weather, great matchup. Odds drastically
to high here. I have it DRU odds right around
plus three ninety plus four hundred, so getting some pretty
solid value on him. But that's this is probably my
favorite spot just because is such a good match at
four lefty power.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Luis Garcia's rolling one hundred plate appearance barrel Ray is
twenty three percent, pretty.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
Much ridiculous how good he's been. It's been fun watching
him in junior kind of go a head to head
over the last few years.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
That NAT's offense just won't stop either. James Wood obviously
continues to be one of the best hitters in baseball
a lot of I mean, there are two games over
five hundred still here in early July. Don't think anyone
saw that coming. Andrew Alva has been a nice little
pit fine for them on the mound on the other side,
So we'll root for Dangers in DC from the Nationals.
(08:32):
I've got one eighty grade bet here and I'm just
gonna keep it simple, very short analysis. Jacob de Gram
over seven and a half strikeouts tonight, Angels Rangers in Arlington.
One of the better pitching matchups of the slate, Jose
Soriano against Jacob de Gram. But I'm going to keep
this simple. Best pitching park in baseball, team with the
highest strikeout rate in baseball, pitcher strikes a lot of
(08:54):
guys out. Jacob de Gram over seven and a half strikeouts.
You know, you look at de Gram's last couple starts,
nine strikeouts, eight strikeouts, nine strikeouts, and that's against teams
that it's tough to strike out sometimes, the Guardians last time,
and the Angels are just the most strikeout prone team
in baseball. That's by a considerable amount, twenty five percent
(09:15):
strikeout right for the team ahead of the Reds, the Orioles,
the Pirates, the Yankees actually sitting there in fifth place.
So I just think this is one too low. This
is one of those where people might be afraid because
the strikeout line is so high. I think de Gram's
over under is the same as Jacob Mezowski's today, for example,
but there's a reason for that. He's facing the Angels
(09:36):
and he's at home, so misrous. I'm sorry. De Gram
over seven and a half strikeouts minus one oh four
fan duel best odds as of recording, really like that
one today. Before we get on to our sixty grade bets,
quick reminder that with the World Cup here, we have
officially launched our summer sale for Action Pro to go
(09:58):
along with brand new features for the World Cup. We
now have money line over, underspread and player prop projections
like Anytime goalscorers for Action Pro users all throughout the
World Cup. That's right, the World Cup is still gonna
go on, despite the fact that the United States lost
last night to Belgium cast a couple bets in that game.
Sorry to the Americans, but World Cup goes on for
(10:18):
another week or two. And starting right now, new users
can get three months of Action Pro for the price
of two. Go to actionetwork, dot com slash Pro now
to get it on this offer and so you can
become the smartest better you can be. I believe if
my math is correct, it's July August September October. If
you sign up for Action Pro right now and get
those three months for two, you're getting the start of
football season. So that should be a bonus for anyone
(10:43):
considering signing up. You get the end of the World Cup,
you get the rest of baseball season and into the
start of NFL and college football. All right, let's move
on to our sixty grade bets.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
Tanner.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
I feel like every time you're on this show, you
find a way to bet against the White Sox, and
I don't think it's gone well for you for the
most part this season. It's a battle of socks tonight
in Chicago, and I believe a battle of us. You're
a Red Sox fan. I'm a White Sox fan. A
couple of young arms on the Mount Payton totally no Schaltz,
just back from injury for the White Sox, and you're
(11:19):
you're doing it again. You're like, Hey, my Red Sox
are bad, they're probably gonna be selling it the deadline.
My White Sox are good, They're probably gonna be buying
to the deadline. But you're just gonna bet against the
better team here.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
Yeah, what Church? I just I like to piss you off.
I like to bet against the White Sox when I
come on this pod. I am a Red Sox fan.
I am gonna probably keep continuing to eat crow because
I have lost probably more money fading the White Sox
than any other team this year.
Speaker 1 (11:42):
I just.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
I'll try and sell my reasoning. I guess again for
you know, the one hundred times I just I think
this is a bit of a bi low cell high
series socks. The Red Sox, excuse me, are forty forty eight,
but they're six and twelve and one run games. They
have a plus five run differential. I'd expect a record
of forty five and forty three. They're starting to flip
the script a little bit in some of that close
game unluckiness. I think they're eight and two over the
(12:05):
last ten. I mean, part of the reason why they're
doing bad in close games is a lineup that can't score.
But we'll see White Soxs a forty seven, forty two,
eighteen to twelve and one run games still sit atop
the Al Central. I still don't believe they're the best
team in the Al Central. Oh they're not. I'm sure
later today, when they're up six to nothing, I'll be
texting rich Are saying the White Sox are the best
(12:26):
team in the world. But I think we're getting Peyton
Toley at a decently cheap price here one because the
Red Sox. I think this is a little bit of
a bilo celle high Series two. The Gnats just rocked
totally in his last start. But the Nats are also
they ranked second in MLB against in WRC plus against
South Bass, and I think that this is a good
(12:48):
bounce back spot for totally. I mean, he's got insane
stuff man, a great batted ball profile too. He can
be over relying on the four seamer sometimes, which allows
opponents to go fastball hunting. That scares me. But it's
a really good four scene fastball with a ton of extension,
and he keeps it mostly up in the zone, forces
a lot of whiffs. He also this is odd, but
(13:08):
he dominates right handed batters career thirty percent strike out
rate against Ryanndon batters, fourteen percent against lefties. I think
it's because of his cutter curveball mix twenty five percent
wif right on the cutter on sixteen percent usage against
righty's forty four percent whiff right on the curveball at
nine percent usage. I think that will really help neutralize
the top of the White Sox order in Vargas, Gritchrek
(13:31):
and Mydrof, and then you have some of the lefties
from there on down, including Colson Montgomery. The White Socks
have produced against lefties. They are top ten lineup by
WRC plus against both sides. Really, they don't project that
well against either side, especially against the lefties, especially without Murkami.
You continuies to be out. I mean, Zerrilla projects them
for a ninety two WRC plus against that side, the
(13:52):
Red Sox. You know, he Zarella projects Boston for a
one oh three WRC plus against lefties. I don't know
if I buy that. I do think there's something to
Boston's massive splits. They have a eighty five WRC plus
against righties, but a one oh nine against lefties. They
are very aggressive in their platooning. They will likely have
eight right handed bats in the lineup today. They get
(14:14):
to sneak in Rummy Gonzalez, who absolutely shreds lefties. Cantraris
as a monster against lefties, and they'll battle. Like you said,
Noah Schultz, who you know, he might be heard, but
earned run indicators in the fives hasn't been good yarn
run indicators in the fives, and he walks a million batters.
I mean, he's running a fourteen percent of walk right
in the majors. His minor league walk rate over the
(14:35):
past two years is like thirteen percent, so you know,
I also think the Red Sox will have a massive
defensive advantage, like they do against most teams. They're a
really good defensive team. I'd also give them the bull
pull benevent bullpen advantage. Excuse me, mainly because of depth.
You know, Boston has a bunch of good relievers. They're
a arrested for this game. But I think the White
Sox really only have like three good relievers. And I
(14:57):
love Grant Taylor, one of my favorites, but one of
their good relievers, Sean Newcombe, is probably out for this game.
I think he tossed twenty seven pitches last night. So
I'll take Boston and some socks on socks crime. I'm
looking for minus one forty or better.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
Famous last words from Tane McGrath. One, by the way,
most profitable teams in baseball. But just betting money lines
would not surprise you to learn the Nationals and the
White Sox basically one A, one B right now twelve
point eight percent ROI on the Nationals twelve point seven
percent ROI and the White Sox one hundred dollars better
(15:31):
on the White Sox this season if every game would
be up one thousand, one hundred and thirty five dollars.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
Smells like regression.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
The Red Sox, for the record fourth least profitable team
UH minus one than three hundred and sixty five dollars.
Only teams worse than them this year, the Mets, Royals,
and Tigers.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
Smells like regression. Everything's going to come back to the mean, man,
Everything's going to come right back to the mean.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Well, let's stay right here in this game because Grant
has a Dinger bet and Grant Grant doesn't bet sides
in totals. But I'm just going to take this as
him being on my side because he's betting on a
white sex hitter to go deep tonight.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Yeah, and it's Colson Montgomery. I mean, we just mentioned
how Tolly has been great versus righties so far this season,
and going back to the beginning of last season, he's
pretty reverse splits looking. Look this year alone, like twenty
k rate to righties, thirteen percent to lefties, giving up
a one point sixty four home run per nine despite
(16:32):
playing in a ballpark that's not very good for home runs.
Don't have to worry about that ballpark today, playing and
a better went over in Chicago, and Colson is people.
It doesn't get talked about how good he's actually been
since he's come in to the league. He's got like
I think he's played pretty much a full season since
he's been the league, he's got like forty five home runs.
(16:53):
He has been phenomenal, and the books just priced him
horrifically this morning. Consider it's a lefty lefty matchup, but
it is reversed, very reverse splits when it comes to power.
So I got him at plus four h nine. I
think the odds have moved pretty drastically, and I just
don't still don't think they've moved off. You can still
(17:13):
get him at plus three seventy five five right now,
plus three fifty five. I did it all the way
down to probably plus three thirty. The spot is a
big plus, and like you just put him on a
neutral in a neutral matchup with how good he is,
and his pribace should be probably under plus three hundred
or right around plus three hundred. So getting him in
(17:35):
a plus matchup plus three fifty five plus three seventy
plays five plus four hundred is just silly. And then
going back and giving out another play from the Nationals game,
Curtis Mead sitting at plus five sixty. I mentioned how
am I is much better versus lefties than the righties.
He still grades out right around an average matchup for
righty power, and Meat has been great this season. Again,
(17:58):
when the game actually does play, assuming there's not too
long of a delay or doesn't get postponed, there's gonna
be some good hitting weather with high humidity and hot
in tempts in the eighties, so the ball's gonna be flying. Well.
I know he's not historically been a big power hitter,
but Barrel Raiate is over doubled this season. It's up
over ten percent. He's got fifteen bounds, he's on pace
(18:18):
for a round thirty of them this year. So getting
a guy in an average matchup with good hitting weather
at plus five sixties some pretty darn solid value.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
I want to say something about Montgomery because I couldn't
agree more with you, Grant. This is the one hitter
in the lineup I'm really worried about, not only because
totally has those huge reverse splits. Montgomery in his career
has a higher WRC plus against lefties, and he doesn't
gets ready he's better against lefties, and he crushes cutters
and curveballs, which I think are the two pitches that
allow Tolly to have those reverse splits. So I mean,
(18:51):
he's seen eighty three cutters this season, he's slugging a
thousand on them. So I might pet that with you
and still bet the Socks money line.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Little reverse correlation SGP right there at Socks money Line.
Montgomery home run Grant mentioned it. He's been in the
He's got about a season's worth now. He debuted on
fourth of July last year, forty four home runs in
one hundred and fifty six games. A lot of people
thought he would be an All Star selection. He was not.
I mean, you can't really argue with the American League
(19:22):
shortstops that Bobby Witch Junior and Kevin McGonagall. But I'm
hoping Montgomery is an injury replacement because I want to
see him in the home run derby. Forty four home
runs again in one hundred and fifty six games, and
he's homewred in both games since he was quote unquote
snubbed for the All Star team. So he's a guy
that I would really enjoy. I think he would be
a lot of fun with his swing in that home
(19:44):
run derby. So he's one of the guys I'm rooting
for getting in there. I've got one sixty grade bet
to give out justin Rableski guy. I've really enjoyed this year,
just kind of performing against the projections all year considering
his strikeout stuff. But I'm betting him against. I'm betting
(20:06):
against him in the strikeout market today in cores against
or I'm sorry at home against the Rockies. I think
that this number is a little too high because of
his recent performance. Under five and a half at minus
one twenty eight is the number for the record. He
struck out eleven last time out in Sacramento against the Athletics.
(20:30):
He's been really really helter skelter from a strikeout perspective,
but as a whole, he still only has a strikeout
rate of seventeen point three percent. That's ten percentage points
lower than it was a year ago. The Rockies, for
as bad as they've been, you know, they were striking
out at like an unfathomable rate at one point. That's
(20:53):
come down a little bit. They're only eleventh highest strikeout
rate now in the majors. So I think this is
a nice swerve on Robleski. Obviously the Dodgers giant favorites.
Robleski should perform well and pitch deep into the game,
but I just don't think he's gonna miss quite as
many bats. And I think this is, you know, about
one strikeout too high. We're getting a little bit of
(21:14):
a discount because it's Dodgers Rockies. So Robleski under five
and a half strikeouts minus one twenty eight at Draftking's
best price out there as of this recording. Let's get
out of here with a couple of forty grade bets.
We'll be quick on these, as there are obviously our
our lowest edges on the slate. Tanner, I already talked
(21:35):
about de Gram quite a bit in my eighty grade bet.
We've talked at nauseum this year about the Pitcher's Park
in Arlington and how it's been an unders haven. So
no surprise here with Soriano and de Gram. Where you're
going for your final bet of the slate.
Speaker 3 (21:52):
Yeah, under seven. Looking, I'm pretty price sensitive on this one.
I'm looking for minus one ten or better. Also really
important that the roof is closed. I think there is
a kind of hefty adjustment upward in the run scoring
environment when the roof is open, But considering the whole
state of Texas is under heat warnings, I'm going to
assume it's stays closed. I think it's gonna be ninety
five today in Arlington. You know, I do think the
(22:13):
books have started to adjust for that massive decrease in
bark factor at Global Life. I think the totals are
starting to become more fair. But we're still talking about
like a fifteen percent negative adjustments in overall run scoring environment.
And you know, just three it or eight unders are
one hundred and twenty eight and seventy eight, one hundred
and twenty and seventy eight at Global Field over the
past three seasons, including twenty three and sixteen this year.
(22:35):
I couldn't agree more with you on everything he said
about to Grom earlier. I just I don't you know,
I think he's flying under the radar now. I think
he's still a top ten picture, maybe top five. Yeah,
his fastball will never be as good as it once was.
He can't throw it as hard. He never will be
able to throw it as hard. His second stary stuff
is still best in the world. Good, like as good
as it's ever been his secondary stuff. He's also been
(22:55):
really unlucky with home run avoidance this year, career high
one point five home runs for nine allowed and fifteen
percent home run fly ball right allowed. Where have all
those homers come on the road? Eleven of his sixteen
allowed have come on the road. Back in May, he
allowed two to the Angels, four to the Astros, and
two the Yankees, and three consecutive road starts. Three of
his past four starts have been on the road, So
now he gets to come back home to the pitcher's
(23:17):
paradise that is Global Life Field. Ten of his seventeen
starts this year have been on the road. By the way,
he still has a two point three ra at home.
I think that you might want to target some de
Grom starts coming up here, because guess what, you're not
going to give up as many home runs a globe
globe life right. I think that Jose Soriano was overrated
for a long time. I think he's starting to become
(23:38):
slightly more properly rated in the market. He is not
the best picture in baseball like he was performing in April,
but he is an above average pitcher with good strikeout stuff,
some walk issues, and above average batterball profile. His rolling
x FIP is down to two point eight, which is
the best that's been since that April run and last
four starts twenty four strikeouts over eighteen innings, nine walks,
(23:58):
two point eight x FIP five point five era really
good bounce back spot for him in a good run
scoring environment. Worried about this. My worries about this under
include bad bullpens and defenses. But I don't like either lineup.
I think the Rangers are elite from a back to
ball perspective, but they just don't have much pop. I
think the Angels are trending toward having a bottom ten,
bottom five lineup. Neither team is good on the base pass,
(24:19):
so really makes this number six and a half. I
could not agree more. I will take the under.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
The other worry about the under from a starting pitcher
standpoint is just if Soriano can't find the strike zone.
He leads the league in walks allowed. Rangers brought rum
middle of the pack and walk great though, so not
a huge, pretty.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
Patient, pre patient lineup. But yeah, yeah, we'll try and
avoid that. It's a forty grade bet for a reason, right.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
Yeah, grant your lastinger, bet your old standby. I think
that if we were to go back and count all
the bets you've given out, all the Homer bets you've
given out on this show or otherwise, I bet this
guy would bring first. Maybe maybe you have someone else
in mind that would rank first. That's just my thoughts.
In Cubs Orioles. In Baltimore, you got an Oriel slugger
(25:02):
here against Matthew Boyd.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Oh yeah, it's not even wrongly close. It's it's it's
a guy I bet the most, and I've done well
with him every single year. It's everyone's like, you just
pick him every day. I'm like, I'm winning money every
single year on him because it's in the right spot.
He's just drastically undervalued. And we got another good spot today.
Got big Meat Pete at plus three seventy five going
(25:25):
up against Boyd. The weather is pretty decent. It's gonna
be humid, it's going to be decently hot, ay two
degrees so plus overall hitting environment. I don't like the
I don't like Baltimore's field for ridey power. But when
you're getting plus three seventy five odds at a good
matchup versus Boyd, like a lot of versus lefties phenomenal
(25:48):
almost every single time. So just odds are a bit
too high here, Like the matchup versus Boyd, Like the
weather plus three, I did it all the way down
to plus three thirty.
Speaker 2 (25:58):
Love that I've got a cup of pitcher props. I
like to a moderate degree that I'll throw out here
at the end. The first one. Maybe the most underrated
pitcher in baseball this year. I feel like no one's
talking about him, Max Meyer, of your Fish Tanner. It's
like they got Sandy all right. Sandy's kind of backed off.
Uri Perez hasn't quite lived up. He's been hurt, obviously,
(26:20):
almost a perfect game the other day. But their best
pitcher this year has been Max Meyer.
Speaker 3 (26:25):
I've got him. I love him.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
Yes, strikeouts over you can get over five and a
half right now minus one fifty five at bet MGM.
There's some over six and a half's out there minu
plus one twenty four fandue. I don't mind that either.
I think that this is a great strikeout matchup for
him against the Mariners top ten strikeout rate. Meyer has
been missing bats like crazy. We're getting a little bit
(26:50):
of a discount on him because he's only struck out
five exactly in his last two starts against the Rockies
and the Cardinals. But this guy has seven, eight, nine,
ten strikeout upside, so I like him bouncing back today.
Obviously a plus matchup for strikeouts today against the Mariners
offense again over five and a half minus one fifty five.
If you're if you got six and a half out there,
(27:11):
probably round plus one twenty four plus one twenty five.
I would take that and then the final one. I'm
finding a way to fade trek scuble today for the
Tigers against the Athletics in Detroit. Got him under eighteen
and a half outs, recorded huge juice on this one
minus one seventy. There's a reason for that. Scooble hasn't
(27:33):
pitched into the seventh innings since he returned from injury.
Six innings six innings, five and two thirds innings and
four and two thirds innings in his four starts. Most importantly,
he's not going up around one hundred plus pitches. He
topped out at ninety four pitches in one of those
four starts, but it's been low to mid eighties in
pitch count in every other start. I think the Tigers
(27:56):
are being careful with Scooble because they want him healthy
for the trade deadline. I think that Scooble and his agent,
Scott Boris want that as well because he's entering free
agency in the fall. So no matter how Scooble does
today against the Athletics, I think the Tigers are gonna
continue to be cautious with him. They're not going to
overwork him, especially against the team like the Athletics. So
(28:21):
I'm completely comfortable paying the juice on this under under
eighteen and a half outs for Trek Scooble minus one
seventy bet three six'. Five you can get. That maybe
this is the start where they take the take the
training wheels off and just let him go beast. Mode
But i'm betting against that.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
Happening, hey how about Those Black magic Fish Man.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
They can't, Lose they cannot.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Lose marlins might win The World series this, year.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
But they, yeah they. Might i'd like to bet on
THE i, mean we talked about this a lot a
little bit in Our futures episode Of Sean, zrillo but
The braves just completely falling apart to miss the playoffs
is looking more and more, appealing which is kind of
ridiculous to say about a team that's still fifteen games
(29:06):
over five. Hundred But, Phillies phillies Charging marlin's are magical
nationals hanging. Around we will, see But i'll do. It
for today's episode Of Payoff, pitch thanks so much for tuning.
In you'd like to tail some of the bets from today's,
episode look for the quick slip link in the episode.
Description also quick, reminder set your alarms for one Pm
(29:30):
eastern TODAY Mlb Prop Drop live With Sean kerner And Derek.
Cardy we will be back with more prop bets from
those savants in just a couple, hours and we'll be
back On friday with more Pay Off pitch For grantony
For tanna, McGrath i'm Coin. Wichard thanks so much for
listening To Payoff Pitch Action, Networks Major League Baseball betting,
(29:51):
podcasts and good luck with all your. Bets poking his
crown on his freet what Trigger No what wants To
leave
No crying, and this game's other way the wind up.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It is springstoperating, Josh the bit out sign. Here's a
drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos, who will be
a home run. And hello to time you talk about
a roll of the dice.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff pitch Welcome to Payoff Pitch Action Networks.
Major League Baseball Betting Podcast. It is Tuesday, July seventh.
I'm Colin Whitchurch, joined today by Grant Nefert and Tana
McGrath to break down this busy fifteen game MLB slate.
(00:53):
There's one afternoon game today Bruce Cardinals getting started about
two fifteen Eastern.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Not sure why.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Kind of random day game in Saint Louis, but Jacobs.
Speaker 3 (01:05):
Makeup makeup game from early early math.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Ah, so as there's oh, there's sixteen games today, double
header Bruce Cardinals, doubleheader today. I'm very prepared. Jacob Mizowski
on the mound in that early game though, so nice
one to check out.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Against either Hunter Dobbins or Dustin May. Those two are starting.
They don't know which game yet.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
There we go.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
I don't think we have any bets on those games,
so we will. We will carry on. Eighty grade bets
are our best bets for the slate. It looks like
Tanner has one, I have one. Grant has two dingers
to give out. Tanner. I'll start with you Diamondbacks Padres
tonight in San Diego. The really really really shaky Zach
(01:51):
Gallon on the mound for the Diamondbacks as he's been
for most of this year. Padres. I don't think the
Padres have officially announced their starting pitcher tonight, Herman Marquez,
I believe is who were projecting. But Tanner, you have
a play on the total.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
I'm pretty sure they have. They not formally announced Marquez.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
They have, Oh okay, they have.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Yeah, yeah, so it's good Scalon versus Marquez. Good thing too,
because that's like, you know, half the handicap. But yeah,
I like the over over eight and a half minus
one twenty or better. I'm pinch hitting for our own
Sean Zarillo today, and I wanted to throw this in
here because this is Zerrilla's largest largest projected edge on
today's slate. The reason I know that is because of
our new Pro Baseball betting tool, bar Tolo. Underneath the
(02:33):
opening pitch get a pro scripture subscription to check out
that tool. You can just check in and see where
the biggest edges lie. And that is how I found
this bet because he projects nine point six runs for
this game, and I do think a large part of
that projected edge is the umpire Lance Barksdale one of
the most hitter friendly umpires in the game. I think
Derek Cardi's The Bad X has them as the fifth
(02:54):
most hitter friendly umpire among all MLB umpires. Zerrillo Jucks
adjust his projection up a full four percentage points for Barksdale,
but it's also not hard to bet an over in
this pitching matchup between Zach Allen and Herman Marquez. I mean,
Herman's rolling CSW rate is under twenty percent and his
rolling expected FIP is over seven as a result, and
(03:17):
the hope that going from cors to Pecco would kind
of like revive this guy seems to be lost. He
can't miss bats, so he tries to nibble his zone
that results in walks, and when he does throw stuff
in the zone, he gives up loads of hard to
contact because his stuff is terrible. Also worth mentioning that
it is only above average pitch by stuff plus the
knuckle curve has dipped to exactly one hundred stuff plus
(03:37):
or league average. That is a career low for him.
He's also struggled to get lefties out this year four
to fifteen wOBA allowed negative strikeout minus walk right. Marte
and Perdomo will bat lefty here to combine with Corbyn
Carroll to give them what three south paws to the
top of the lineup and the stakes. Also, I've said
this a million times in this podcast, really deep lineup.
(03:58):
I love this lineup, you know, top end ten on
at the top, elite talent or elite depth all the
way down. Unfortunately for them, Zach Gallant is a shell
of himself. As what Church mentioned, he is allowed fifty
five earned runs over his past sixty three innings. That's
crazy career low rates. And stuff swing and misrates, strikeout
rates all as bad at ball numbers have cratered. Batters
(04:20):
are smashing his fastballs in the zone. They're not chasing
his curve ball anymore or really any of his secondary stuff.
And unless there's like a drastic change to his arsenal
or style or something, the Diamondbacks have to do something.
I think things will stay the same. The only reason
I'm worried about this over is because I like both
the bullpens. I like both the defenses too, and Peco
is typically a pitcher's park, But no Adrian Morejon for
(04:40):
the paths today after you toss sixty two pitches in
the past six past three days, excuse me. And San
Diego's defense doesn't project out that well. Also, the Padres
lineup just has serious pop. I feel like this has
blow up potential for one or both starters written all
over it. I think over eighty and a half is
a good price. I think it should be at least nine.
And also if you want to target like the early
games or like the like a year fee or a
(05:01):
first five over, I don't hate that because it feels
like a lot of the scorings that come against the
starters from the top of the lineup, especially for Arizona
against Marquez.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
But I'm just on the full game over it almost
feels too good to be true. Total that low with
Dalen and Marquez on the mound. That's the only reason
I would have both. I'm like one of the books
know that we like why why is the total? So
I mean it suck.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
It just has to be Petco, right, But Peco is
no longer like the like, like, you know, one of
the most picture friendly parks in baseball. It's you know,
maybe a bottom ten, but it's like a minus five
percent runs, you know, park factor.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
So exactly, I agree with you, all right, going from
hoping for offense in San Diego to hoping for a
couple of dingers in d C. Grant two home bets
here in Astros Nationals crazy game last night, the Astros
jumped out to a six to one lead after like
three innings. The Nationals came back. It was twelve to
(05:58):
six in the fifth. Thinking while everyone was watching Team
USA and Belgium, I was paying attention to Nationals Astros,
you know. And then the Astros came back. I think
twelve to eleven was the final there in DC. Tonight,
Tatsu Am i on the mound again for the Astros.
Very confusing season for Am put together a couple of
(06:21):
really good starts and then got blown up his last
time out against the Twins, and Grant you're targeting a
couple of Nats hitters tonight against him.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
I yeah, My, he's been up and down the season.
Obviously I got blown up last game, but the one
thing he struggled with pretty heavily has been lefty power,
giving up a one point nine to one home runs
per nine so far on the season. The weather, I mean,
what the game should play, when it will play, I
don't know, but I think regardless throughout the night, it's
(06:49):
going to be eighties decent humidity, so the ball should
be flying well. And the odds on these two guys
are just far too high. I mean the first one
to c J Abrams, I got a plus five hundred.
You can still get him out. I think plus four
eighty where depending on where you're looking, A lot of
places all the way down at plus four hundred, But
I still even like him at that. He's been fantastic
(07:10):
this season. Matchup is good. Getting plus four hundred on
him just seems or plus five hundred seems ridiculous. Plus
four hundred still has some value. And then the other guy,
Luis Garcia Junior got him at plus four fifty nine.
I think you can still get him right around that number.
He's been on it absolute tear over the last couple
of weeks. I've gotten him a few times, didn't go
(07:32):
for me last night. But I'm going right back to
the well here again. Good weather, great matchup. Odds drastically
to high here. I have it DRU odds right around
plus three ninety plus four hundred, so getting some pretty
solid value on him. But that's this is probably my
favorite spot just because is such a good match at
four lefty power.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Luis Garcia's rolling one hundred plate appearance barrel Ray is
twenty three percent, pretty.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
Much ridiculous how good he's been. It's been fun watching
him in junior kind of go a head to head
over the last few years.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
That NAT's offense just won't stop either. James Wood obviously
continues to be one of the best hitters in baseball
a lot of I mean, there are two games over
five hundred still here in early July. Don't think anyone
saw that coming. Andrew Alva has been a nice little
pit fine for them on the mound on the other side,
So we'll root for Dangers in DC from the Nationals.
(08:32):
I've got one eighty grade bet here and I'm just
gonna keep it simple, very short analysis. Jacob de Gram
over seven and a half strikeouts tonight, Angels Rangers in Arlington.
One of the better pitching matchups of the slate, Jose
Soriano against Jacob de Gram. But I'm going to keep
this simple. Best pitching park in baseball, team with the
highest strikeout rate in baseball, pitcher strikes a lot of
(08:54):
guys out. Jacob de Gram over seven and a half strikeouts.
You know, you look at de Gram's last couple starts,
nine strikeouts, eight strikeouts, nine strikeouts, and that's against teams
that it's tough to strike out sometimes, the Guardians last time,
and the Angels are just the most strikeout prone team
in baseball. That's by a considerable amount, twenty five percent
(09:15):
strikeout right for the team ahead of the Reds, the Orioles,
the Pirates, the Yankees actually sitting there in fifth place.
So I just think this is one too low. This
is one of those where people might be afraid because
the strikeout line is so high. I think de Gram's
over under is the same as Jacob Mezowski's today, for example,
but there's a reason for that. He's facing the Angels
(09:36):
and he's at home, so misrous. I'm sorry. De Gram
over seven and a half strikeouts minus one oh four
fan duel best odds as of recording, really like that
one today. Before we get on to our sixty grade bets,
quick reminder that with the World Cup here, we have
officially launched our summer sale for Action Pro to go
(09:58):
along with brand new features for the World Cup. We
now have money line over, underspread and player prop projections
like Anytime goalscorers for Action Pro users all throughout the
World Cup. That's right, the World Cup is still gonna
go on, despite the fact that the United States lost
last night to Belgium cast a couple bets in that game.
Sorry to the Americans, but World Cup goes on for
(10:18):
another week or two. And starting right now, new users
can get three months of Action Pro for the price
of two. Go to actionetwork, dot com slash Pro now
to get it on this offer and so you can
become the smartest better you can be. I believe if
my math is correct, it's July August September October. If
you sign up for Action Pro right now and get
those three months for two, you're getting the start of
football season. So that should be a bonus for anyone
(10:43):
considering signing up. You get the end of the World Cup,
you get the rest of baseball season and into the
start of NFL and college football. All right, let's move
on to our sixty grade bets.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
Tanner.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
I feel like every time you're on this show, you
find a way to bet against the White Sox, and
I don't think it's gone well for you for the
most part this season. It's a battle of socks tonight
in Chicago, and I believe a battle of us. You're
a Red Sox fan. I'm a White Sox fan. A
couple of young arms on the Mount Payton totally no Schaltz,
just back from injury for the White Sox, and you're
(11:19):
you're doing it again. You're like, Hey, my Red Sox
are bad, they're probably gonna be selling it the deadline.
My White Sox are good, They're probably gonna be buying
to the deadline. But you're just gonna bet against the
better team here.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
Yeah, what Church? I just I like to piss you off.
I like to bet against the White Sox when I
come on this pod. I am a Red Sox fan.
I am gonna probably keep continuing to eat crow because
I have lost probably more money fading the White Sox
than any other team this year.
Speaker 1 (11:42):
I just.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
I'll try and sell my reasoning. I guess again for
you know, the one hundred times I just I think
this is a bit of a bi low cell high
series socks. The Red Sox, excuse me, are forty forty eight,
but they're six and twelve and one run games. They
have a plus five run differential. I'd expect a record
of forty five and forty three. They're starting to flip
the script a little bit in some of that close
game unluckiness. I think they're eight and two over the
(12:05):
last ten. I mean, part of the reason why they're
doing bad in close games is a lineup that can't score.
But we'll see White Soxs a forty seven, forty two,
eighteen to twelve and one run games still sit atop
the Al Central. I still don't believe they're the best
team in the Al Central. Oh they're not. I'm sure
later today, when they're up six to nothing, I'll be
texting rich Are saying the White Sox are the best
(12:26):
team in the world. But I think we're getting Peyton
Toley at a decently cheap price here one because the
Red Sox. I think this is a little bit of
a bilo celle high Series two. The Gnats just rocked
totally in his last start. But the Nats are also
they ranked second in MLB against in WRC plus against
South Bass, and I think that this is a good
(12:48):
bounce back spot for totally. I mean, he's got insane
stuff man, a great batted ball profile too. He can
be over relying on the four seamer sometimes, which allows
opponents to go fastball hunting. That scares me. But it's
a really good four scene fastball with a ton of extension,
and he keeps it mostly up in the zone, forces
a lot of whiffs. He also this is odd, but
(13:08):
he dominates right handed batters career thirty percent strike out
rate against Ryanndon batters, fourteen percent against lefties. I think
it's because of his cutter curveball mix twenty five percent
wif right on the cutter on sixteen percent usage against
righty's forty four percent whiff right on the curveball at
nine percent usage. I think that will really help neutralize
the top of the White Sox order in Vargas, Gritchrek
(13:31):
and Mydrof, and then you have some of the lefties
from there on down, including Colson Montgomery. The White Socks
have produced against lefties. They are top ten lineup by
WRC plus against both sides. Really, they don't project that
well against either side, especially against the lefties, especially without Murkami.
You continuies to be out. I mean, Zerrilla projects them
for a ninety two WRC plus against that side, the
(13:52):
Red Sox. You know, he Zarella projects Boston for a
one oh three WRC plus against lefties. I don't know
if I buy that. I do think there's something to
Boston's massive splits. They have a eighty five WRC plus
against righties, but a one oh nine against lefties. They
are very aggressive in their platooning. They will likely have
eight right handed bats in the lineup today. They get
(14:14):
to sneak in Rummy Gonzalez, who absolutely shreds lefties. Cantraris
as a monster against lefties, and they'll battle. Like you said,
Noah Schultz, who you know, he might be heard, but
earned run indicators in the fives hasn't been good yarn
run indicators in the fives, and he walks a million batters.
I mean, he's running a fourteen percent of walk right
in the majors. His minor league walk rate over the
(14:35):
past two years is like thirteen percent, so you know,
I also think the Red Sox will have a massive
defensive advantage, like they do against most teams. They're a
really good defensive team. I'd also give them the bull
pull benevent bullpen advantage. Excuse me, mainly because of depth.
You know, Boston has a bunch of good relievers. They're
a arrested for this game. But I think the White
Sox really only have like three good relievers. And I
(14:57):
love Grant Taylor, one of my favorites, but one of
their good relievers, Sean Newcombe, is probably out for this game.
I think he tossed twenty seven pitches last night. So
I'll take Boston and some socks on socks crime. I'm
looking for minus one forty or better.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
Famous last words from Tane McGrath. One, by the way,
most profitable teams in baseball. But just betting money lines
would not surprise you to learn the Nationals and the
White Sox basically one A, one B right now twelve
point eight percent ROI on the Nationals twelve point seven
percent ROI and the White Sox one hundred dollars better
(15:31):
on the White Sox this season if every game would
be up one thousand, one hundred and thirty five dollars.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
Smells like regression.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
The Red Sox, for the record fourth least profitable team
UH minus one than three hundred and sixty five dollars.
Only teams worse than them this year, the Mets, Royals,
and Tigers.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
Smells like regression. Everything's going to come back to the mean, man,
Everything's going to come right back to the mean.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Well, let's stay right here in this game because Grant
has a Dinger bet and Grant Grant doesn't bet sides
in totals. But I'm just going to take this as
him being on my side because he's betting on a
white sex hitter to go deep tonight.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Yeah, and it's Colson Montgomery. I mean, we just mentioned
how Tolly has been great versus righties so far this season,
and going back to the beginning of last season, he's
pretty reverse splits looking. Look this year alone, like twenty
k rate to righties, thirteen percent to lefties, giving up
a one point sixty four home run per nine despite
(16:32):
playing in a ballpark that's not very good for home runs.
Don't have to worry about that ballpark today, playing and
a better went over in Chicago, and Colson is people.
It doesn't get talked about how good he's actually been
since he's come in to the league. He's got like
I think he's played pretty much a full season since
he's been the league, he's got like forty five home runs.
(16:53):
He has been phenomenal, and the books just priced him
horrifically this morning. Consider it's a lefty lefty matchup, but
it is reversed, very reverse splits when it comes to power.
So I got him at plus four h nine. I
think the odds have moved pretty drastically, and I just
don't still don't think they've moved off. You can still
(17:13):
get him at plus three seventy five five right now,
plus three fifty five. I did it all the way
down to probably plus three thirty. The spot is a
big plus, and like you just put him on a
neutral in a neutral matchup with how good he is,
and his pribace should be probably under plus three hundred
or right around plus three hundred. So getting him in
(17:35):
a plus matchup plus three fifty five plus three seventy
plays five plus four hundred is just silly. And then
going back and giving out another play from the Nationals game,
Curtis Mead sitting at plus five sixty. I mentioned how
am I is much better versus lefties than the righties.
He still grades out right around an average matchup for
righty power, and Meat has been great this season. Again,
(17:58):
when the game actually does play, assuming there's not too
long of a delay or doesn't get postponed, there's gonna
be some good hitting weather with high humidity and hot
in tempts in the eighties, so the ball's gonna be flying. Well.
I know he's not historically been a big power hitter,
but Barrel Raiate is over doubled this season. It's up
over ten percent. He's got fifteen bounds, he's on pace
(18:18):
for a round thirty of them this year. So getting
a guy in an average matchup with good hitting weather
at plus five sixties some pretty darn solid value.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
I want to say something about Montgomery because I couldn't
agree more with you, Grant. This is the one hitter
in the lineup I'm really worried about, not only because
totally has those huge reverse splits. Montgomery in his career
has a higher WRC plus against lefties, and he doesn't
gets ready he's better against lefties, and he crushes cutters
and curveballs, which I think are the two pitches that
allow Tolly to have those reverse splits. So I mean,
(18:51):
he's seen eighty three cutters this season, he's slugging a
thousand on them. So I might pet that with you
and still bet the Socks money line.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Little reverse correlation SGP right there at Socks money Line.
Montgomery home run Grant mentioned it. He's been in the
He's got about a season's worth now. He debuted on
fourth of July last year, forty four home runs in
one hundred and fifty six games. A lot of people
thought he would be an All Star selection. He was not.
I mean, you can't really argue with the American League
(19:22):
shortstops that Bobby Witch Junior and Kevin McGonagall. But I'm
hoping Montgomery is an injury replacement because I want to
see him in the home run derby. Forty four home
runs again in one hundred and fifty six games, and
he's homewred in both games since he was quote unquote
snubbed for the All Star team. So he's a guy
that I would really enjoy. I think he would be
a lot of fun with his swing in that home
(19:44):
run derby. So he's one of the guys I'm rooting
for getting in there. I've got one sixty grade bet
to give out justin Rableski guy. I've really enjoyed this year,
just kind of performing against the projections all year considering
his strikeout stuff. But I'm betting him against. I'm betting
(20:06):
against him in the strikeout market today in cores against
or I'm sorry at home against the Rockies. I think
that this number is a little too high because of
his recent performance. Under five and a half at minus
one twenty eight is the number for the record. He
struck out eleven last time out in Sacramento against the Athletics.
(20:30):
He's been really really helter skelter from a strikeout perspective,
but as a whole, he still only has a strikeout
rate of seventeen point three percent. That's ten percentage points
lower than it was a year ago. The Rockies, for
as bad as they've been, you know, they were striking
out at like an unfathomable rate at one point. That's
(20:53):
come down a little bit. They're only eleventh highest strikeout
rate now in the majors. So I think this is
a nice swerve on Robleski. Obviously the Dodgers giant favorites.
Robleski should perform well and pitch deep into the game,
but I just don't think he's gonna miss quite as
many bats. And I think this is, you know, about
one strikeout too high. We're getting a little bit of
(21:14):
a discount because it's Dodgers Rockies. So Robleski under five
and a half strikeouts minus one twenty eight at Draftking's
best price out there as of this recording. Let's get
out of here with a couple of forty grade bets.
We'll be quick on these, as there are obviously our
our lowest edges on the slate. Tanner, I already talked
(21:35):
about de Gram quite a bit in my eighty grade bet.
We've talked at nauseum this year about the Pitcher's Park
in Arlington and how it's been an unders haven. So
no surprise here with Soriano and de Gram. Where you're
going for your final bet of the slate.
Speaker 3 (21:52):
Yeah, under seven. Looking, I'm pretty price sensitive on this one.
I'm looking for minus one ten or better. Also really
important that the roof is closed. I think there is
a kind of hefty adjustment upward in the run scoring
environment when the roof is open, But considering the whole
state of Texas is under heat warnings, I'm going to
assume it's stays closed. I think it's gonna be ninety
five today in Arlington. You know, I do think the
(22:13):
books have started to adjust for that massive decrease in
bark factor at Global Life. I think the totals are
starting to become more fair. But we're still talking about
like a fifteen percent negative adjustments in overall run scoring environment.
And you know, just three it or eight unders are
one hundred and twenty eight and seventy eight, one hundred
and twenty and seventy eight at Global Field over the
past three seasons, including twenty three and sixteen this year.
(22:35):
I couldn't agree more with you on everything he said
about to Grom earlier. I just I don't you know,
I think he's flying under the radar now. I think
he's still a top ten picture, maybe top five. Yeah,
his fastball will never be as good as it once was.
He can't throw it as hard. He never will be
able to throw it as hard. His second stary stuff
is still best in the world. Good, like as good
as it's ever been his secondary stuff. He's also been
(22:55):
really unlucky with home run avoidance this year, career high
one point five home runs for nine allowed and fifteen
percent home run fly ball right allowed. Where have all
those homers come on the road? Eleven of his sixteen
allowed have come on the road. Back in May, he
allowed two to the Angels, four to the Astros, and
two the Yankees, and three consecutive road starts. Three of
his past four starts have been on the road, So
now he gets to come back home to the pitcher's
(23:17):
paradise that is Global Life Field. Ten of his seventeen
starts this year have been on the road. By the way,
he still has a two point three ra at home.
I think that you might want to target some de
Grom starts coming up here, because guess what, you're not
going to give up as many home runs a globe
globe life right. I think that Jose Soriano was overrated
for a long time. I think he's starting to become
(23:38):
slightly more properly rated in the market. He is not
the best picture in baseball like he was performing in April,
but he is an above average pitcher with good strikeout stuff,
some walk issues, and above average batterball profile. His rolling
x FIP is down to two point eight, which is
the best that's been since that April run and last
four starts twenty four strikeouts over eighteen innings, nine walks,
(23:58):
two point eight x FIP five point five era really
good bounce back spot for him in a good run
scoring environment. Worried about this. My worries about this under
include bad bullpens and defenses. But I don't like either lineup.
I think the Rangers are elite from a back to
ball perspective, but they just don't have much pop. I
think the Angels are trending toward having a bottom ten,
bottom five lineup. Neither team is good on the base pass,
(24:19):
so really makes this number six and a half. I
could not agree more. I will take the under.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
The other worry about the under from a starting pitcher
standpoint is just if Soriano can't find the strike zone.
He leads the league in walks allowed. Rangers brought rum
middle of the pack and walk great though, so not
a huge, pretty.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
Patient, pre patient lineup. But yeah, yeah, we'll try and
avoid that. It's a forty grade bet for a reason, right.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
Yeah, grant your lastinger, bet your old standby. I think
that if we were to go back and count all
the bets you've given out, all the Homer bets you've
given out on this show or otherwise, I bet this
guy would bring first. Maybe maybe you have someone else
in mind that would rank first. That's just my thoughts.
In Cubs Orioles. In Baltimore, you got an Oriel slugger
(25:02):
here against Matthew Boyd.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Oh yeah, it's not even wrongly close. It's it's it's
a guy I bet the most, and I've done well
with him every single year. It's everyone's like, you just
pick him every day. I'm like, I'm winning money every
single year on him because it's in the right spot.
He's just drastically undervalued. And we got another good spot today.
Got big Meat Pete at plus three seventy five going
(25:25):
up against Boyd. The weather is pretty decent. It's gonna
be humid, it's going to be decently hot, ay two
degrees so plus overall hitting environment. I don't like the
I don't like Baltimore's field for ridey power. But when
you're getting plus three seventy five odds at a good
matchup versus Boyd, like a lot of versus lefties phenomenal
(25:48):
almost every single time. So just odds are a bit
too high here, Like the matchup versus Boyd, Like the
weather plus three, I did it all the way down
to plus three thirty.
Speaker 2 (25:58):
Love that I've got a cup of pitcher props. I
like to a moderate degree that I'll throw out here
at the end. The first one. Maybe the most underrated
pitcher in baseball this year. I feel like no one's
talking about him, Max Meyer, of your Fish Tanner. It's
like they got Sandy all right. Sandy's kind of backed off.
Uri Perez hasn't quite lived up. He's been hurt, obviously,
(26:20):
almost a perfect game the other day. But their best
pitcher this year has been Max Meyer.
Speaker 3 (26:25):
I've got him. I love him.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
Yes, strikeouts over you can get over five and a
half right now minus one fifty five at bet MGM.
There's some over six and a half's out there minu
plus one twenty four fandue. I don't mind that either.
I think that this is a great strikeout matchup for
him against the Mariners top ten strikeout rate. Meyer has
been missing bats like crazy. We're getting a little bit
(26:50):
of a discount on him because he's only struck out
five exactly in his last two starts against the Rockies
and the Cardinals. But this guy has seven, eight, nine,
ten strikeout upside, so I like him bouncing back today.
Obviously a plus matchup for strikeouts today against the Mariners
offense again over five and a half minus one fifty five.
If you're if you got six and a half out there,
(27:11):
probably round plus one twenty four plus one twenty five.
I would take that and then the final one. I'm
finding a way to fade trek scuble today for the
Tigers against the Athletics in Detroit. Got him under eighteen
and a half outs, recorded huge juice on this one
minus one seventy. There's a reason for that. Scooble hasn't
(27:33):
pitched into the seventh innings since he returned from injury.
Six innings six innings, five and two thirds innings and
four and two thirds innings in his four starts. Most importantly,
he's not going up around one hundred plus pitches. He
topped out at ninety four pitches in one of those
four starts, but it's been low to mid eighties in
pitch count in every other start. I think the Tigers
(27:56):
are being careful with Scooble because they want him healthy
for the trade deadline. I think that Scooble and his agent,
Scott Boris want that as well because he's entering free
agency in the fall. So no matter how Scooble does
today against the Athletics, I think the Tigers are gonna
continue to be cautious with him. They're not going to
overwork him, especially against the team like the Athletics. So
(28:21):
I'm completely comfortable paying the juice on this under under
eighteen and a half outs for Trek Scooble minus one
seventy bet three six'. Five you can get. That maybe
this is the start where they take the take the
training wheels off and just let him go beast. Mode
But i'm betting against that.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
Happening, hey how about Those Black magic Fish Man.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
They can't, Lose they cannot.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Lose marlins might win The World series this, year.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
But they, yeah they. Might i'd like to bet on
THE i, mean we talked about this a lot a
little bit in Our futures episode Of Sean, zrillo but
The braves just completely falling apart to miss the playoffs
is looking more and more, appealing which is kind of
ridiculous to say about a team that's still fifteen games
(29:06):
over five. Hundred But, Phillies phillies Charging marlin's are magical
nationals hanging. Around we will, see But i'll do. It
for today's episode Of Payoff, pitch thanks so much for tuning.
In you'd like to tail some of the bets from today's,
episode look for the quick slip link in the episode.
Description also quick, reminder set your alarms for one Pm
(29:30):
eastern TODAY Mlb Prop Drop live With Sean kerner And Derek.
Cardy we will be back with more prop bets from
those savants in just a couple, hours and we'll be
back On friday with more Pay Off pitch For grantony
For tanna, McGrath i'm Coin. Wichard thanks so much for
listening To Payoff Pitch Action, Networks Major League Baseball betting,
(29:51):
podcasts and good luck with all your. Bets poking his
crown on his freet what Trigger No what wants To
leave
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