July 21, 2026 • 23 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch and Grant Neiffer team up to break down the Tuesday's MLB slate. The crew dives into sides, totals and dingers targeting two washed pitchers. Using the MLB 20–80 scouting scale, they grade their most confident plays and highlight where they’re finding the most value across the board. Tune in to hear their top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Check out the video version of today's show on Action Network YouTube page for a sneak peak. Rate, review and subscribe to the show wherever you watch or listen so you don't miss us every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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10 - 60-GRADE BETS
16 - 40-GRADE BETS
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Fall, no crying, and this game's other way the line up.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It is Springs offering Josh the bit out signed. Here's
a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
It will be a home run.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
And hello, good time you're talking about a roll at
the dice.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch Welcome to Payoff Pitch Action Networks,
Major League Baseball Betting podcast. It is Tuesday, July twenty First,
I'm Collen Richard, joined today by Granton Nefer of Scores
Nods to break down our best bets for this busy
full Tuesday slate, full slate of games, all under the lights.
(00:55):
No Seanzrillo today, he's off. I'll be looking through his
awesome Bartolo Tool to find his edges and present them
to you. And then Grant, of course, is gonna hit
you with his favorite Dinger bets from tonight's slate. Some
very intriguing games from a dinger standpoint. Tonight, for sure,
I'll go ahead and get us started with the first
(01:17):
bet of the game. This is Sean Zarrillo's biggest projected
edge currently on the Bartolo Tool. Reminder, if you're new
to this or if you're not familiar with Sean's Bartolo Tool,
which you can access in the action app Actionnetwork dot Com.
You can basically access Sean Zarrillo's Baseball handicapping brain break
(01:39):
down all of his top edges, every single aspect of
a game that goes into his model, and where he
finds these edges. So even when Shawn isn't able to
join us as he is today, we can still talk
about Sean's favorite bets, which is great. And so that's
what I'm gonna go ahead and do today. Pick and
choose a little bit. I'm not just you know, speeling
(01:59):
out out what Sean says. I'm putting some thought into
it a little bit as well. There are some other
edges that he has in the Bartolo Tool that I'm
not presenting to you today, So I implore you to
check that out. Some first five edges, some other totals,
some other sides. But the first one I'm going to
get to the biggest edge in there that I like
is the under in Tiger's Cubs today eight and a half.
(02:22):
I've got an eight point six percent edge on that
under today. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley today
at more than fifteen miles an hour to Wriggly win
under the exact opposite of what we saw last night,
where we had near twenty mile an hour wins blowing
out to straightaway center Grant. I know you cashed some
Dylan Dingler love last night going deep. Riley Green went
(02:44):
deep several Cubs home runs in that extra inning game.
But tonight it is the polar opposite wind blank blowing
straight in from center field. That's why we get a
total of eight and a half, despite the fact that
it is not the most appealing pitching matchup in the
world from Berveldez against David Peterson fromber Obviously, ace level
talent at times hasn't been great this year. David Peterson
(03:04):
has been down right horrible this year. This is I
think maybe his third or fourth start since coming to
Chicago over in that trade with the Mets. But despite
both these guys struggles, they are both sinkerballers. Even Peterson
still induces grounders nearly half the time, even if it's down,
even if that rate is down from back when he
was actually good. These are also two of the better
(03:26):
defensive teams in the league. The Cubs are elite obviously,
and despite last night's wild game, neither team enters with
a notably fatigued bullpen, So with the wind blowing the
way it is and Wrigley normally you'd see seven and
a half, maybe down to seven. I think that this
is bumped up a little bit too much because of
the quality of the starting pitchers. So we're getting value there.
(03:47):
So Tiger's Cubs under eight and a half. That is
the first eighty grade bet of today's show. Grant your
two to eighty grade home run bets come from the
same game. I have a bet on this game as
well that aligns with your home run bets. We're going
to Giants Royals tonight. A pretty gross pitching matchup here,
(04:10):
Tyler Mally Lunder Avila and you like two Giants hitters tonight, Yeah,
I mean.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
We don't have a huge sample size of Villa as
a starter, and the major thing has just made nine
starts so far in his career, but overall he kind
of grades out. Is right around an average matchup for
home runs for both lefties and varieties, and the odds
really don't imply that for a lot of the Giants hitters.
So first one is Raphael Devers hit home run plus
(04:39):
four fifty fours where I got mat. You can find
hi anymore from plus four to twenty plus four fifty four,
and I'm fine with any of those. Devers has been
better after a slow start to the season. He's been
hitting the ball well. The ballpark is an upgrade. I
know Royal Stadium or Kaufman has been historically bad for
home runs. They did move into fences and it's been
(04:59):
weird this year. A lot of that has been kind
of weather driven and just random variant, but it is
a significant upgrade in terms of ballpark. Over San Francisco,
that's one of the worst, probably the worst ballpark in
the league. So getting an upgrade there. Devers has been
hitting the ball grade the matchup is right around average.
Wind is blowing in slightly, but attempts in the high eighties,
(05:21):
so the ball should actually be flying right around normal.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Like.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
It's really not an upgrade or down grade for hitting.
So given just a fully average matchup in a ballpark,
upgrade for Devers plus four fifty four is far too
high in my opinion. The second guy is going to
be Casey Schmidt plus four to seventy five. You can
get this aloid anywhere from four point twenty all the
way to four seventy five. Again, I like it at
(05:45):
any of those numbers. He's just he's been hitting the
ball grade this season, got good power, and again this
is a pretty decent ballpark upgrade over San Francisco, especially
we consider the temperatures are close to ninety degrees here.
So I again this is just a price play, but
I have both these guys tru odds under plus four
hundred here, so some very very solid value on both
(06:08):
those guys.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
Nice little breakout, surprise breakout year for Casey Schmid, who's
been maybe the Giant's best offensive player all year. He
entered the year with twenty three career homers and has
nineteen this year, so big, big homer upside for him,
kind of out of nowheric plays a little bit of
everywhere for the Giants. So those two picks in Giants
Royals tonight. I have one more eighty grade. Bet I'll
(06:32):
get to real short analysis in this one. National's Rockies
over thirteen. Yes, thirteen is the total at Cours tonight.
I think there are some heavily juice twelve and a
half still out there, but I like over thirteen at
just the regular minus one ten range. This is a
seven point one percent edge. Gordon's a real model. It's
my hills. Michaelis against Michael Lorenzen one of the more
(06:55):
hilariously inept pitching matchups in quite some time, at least
among that you recognize. They're no lunder Avila, who nobody
knows about, but everyone has heard of Smiles Michaelis and
Michael Lorenzen, and they're both very, very bad at this
stage in their careers. They're pitching at course tonight. It
is going to be eighty eight degrees at first pitch,
with thirteen mile one hour wins blowing out to left
(07:17):
center field. Nobody's fatigued for either team in their bullpen
except Riley Cornelio for Washington. But it matters not given
what these bullpens are. These are Zerrilla's twenty ninth and
thirtieth ranked bullpens in baseball. So with the weather, with
the pitching, Washington still having one of, if not the
best offense in all of baseball. Somehow, this is an
(07:40):
easy over for me. Grant. I think you're going to
talk about at least one homer bet you have in
this game. But it's I'm not surprised that you don't
have more, because you know, odds makers know what we're
gonna get today. And I was looking at the Homer
odds out of this game, and there are like five
or six guys priced short to three to one. I
think Hunter good Men's and like the plus one something range,
(08:02):
which you usually only see like show hey Otani at
that number. So that just goes to tell you what
kind of offense we're gonna get tonight. You would think
this would be where the sharps would maybe zag and say, oh,
this number is too high, We're gonna go under here,
But now I think that it's somehow still too low.
So over thirteen in Nationals Rockies my other best bet
(08:25):
from today's slay again with the help of Sean Zarillo's
bar Tolo model before we move on. The World Cup
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(08:45):
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All right, let's jump down to our sixty grade section
(09:08):
where Grant has two more homers and I have two
more bets. We will go to the latest game out
West first for you, Grant JJ I gave it away.
You like JJ bil Day and Red's Mariners Today tell
us why I mean.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Stio just doesn't really have stuff versus lefties anymore. He's
been surprisingly gid versus rieties this season, has a two
point five six FIP three point two four x FIP,
only allowing point four nine home runs per nine to rieties. Lefties,
it's an entirely different story one point seven six home
runs per nine to lefties this season FIP and x
(09:48):
fIF sitting right around five point three, So he just
doesn't have stuff to get out lefties anymore. Today obviously
has slowed down since his great start of the season,
But barrel raid, everything doesn't look too bad. It's still
got some decent pop and we're getting a solid number
here at plus four to twenty five, anywhere from plus
three seventy to plus four to twenty five like all those.
(10:08):
Just the matchup is too good. The ballpark obviously a downgrade,
but considering how bad Castillo has been versus lefties here,
the odds are just far too high. And weirdly hot
day over in Seattle today. I think it's going to
be mid eighties and that's just not normal at all
(10:28):
for Seattle. So it should be a decent bump to
hitting over all there. And yeah, oddsumbleday are just far
too high given how inept Castillo has been this season.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Real Ron Burgundy moment for me there. I'm just staring
at JJ Bleda's name, trying to set you up, and
I just go JJ oaps. But yes, that's a great
Reds Mariners angle. I've got another total here in also
out west in Cardinals Angels over nine with a three
point three percent edge. Here math matchup of Matthew Liberator
(11:02):
and Wilbert Urina. It's been rough sledding for Liberator. Uh
you know, once showed a decent amount of promise, once
top pitching prospect in the Cardinal system. I believe they
got him from the Rays for Randy a Rose Arena,
a move that you know, for all the Cardinals Devil Magic,
that is a trade that very much did not work
out in their favor. Librator is now rated as Sean
Zerrilla's SP one two, which is even his opposing starter tonight.
(11:27):
Wilbert Urina, who nobody knows about, is better. He's SP
ninety eight right now. Weather adjustment and in Anaheim tonight
gives a two point two percent bump to the offenses.
The Cardinals bullpen is ranked twenty fifth, while the Angels
are more middle of the pack fifteenth, but both offenses
are above average against their respective split Tonight, the Cardinals
have a one oh four WRC plus against right handed pitching,
(11:48):
Angels up at one oh eight against left handed pitching,
which for all the Angels struggles, they've been able to
hit left handed pitching this year, which should give them
a boost. So all told, I like over nine in
Cardinals Angels tonight. Grant your last bet of the sixty
grade section. We will go back to what I alluded
to in Rockies Nationals tonight. We talked about how it's
(12:13):
kind of hard to find some dinger value in that game,
given what the books know and given what works back
to the see tonight. But you did find one hitter
who is priced at a point that you like tonight.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Yeah, I mean yeah, this game. Lorenzen has not been
good versus lefties this season. He's just been straight at
bad one point eight to one home runs for nine,
and it's been distinctly worse at home. And obviously he
is at home, and the weather is phenomenal today, high
eighties is going to be right around ninety degrees during
game time, win blowing out at eleven miles an hour.
(12:47):
There's a chance of rain Denver, but should play fine.
Abrams has been phenomenal this season. He's been hanging the
ball very well, has a lot of pop, There's a
big ballpark up grade, everything kind of going for him,
and still to get odds plus three fifty seems far too.
I have his true odds right around plus two seventy here.
So given the great spot, the great weather, the ballpark upgrade,
(13:10):
everything just going for him, and he's still priced kind
of where he generally is. I mean, he generally can
find him in a OK matchup at plus three fifty
plus four hundred. This is a great spot, and we're
getting these odds absolutely silly to me. I love him today,
I just wish. I just don't love betting guys at
(13:31):
plus three fifty. I've prefer plus four hundred plus four
fifty range. But given the spot this is, this is
very far off.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
C J. Abrams one of the best hitters and one
of the surprising best offenses in baseball this year. Tough
to go wrong there. Again, you look at the top
Dinger guys in that game, Hunter Goodman, James Wood. Of
course you're getting even less value there. Even with how
enticing it is to bet those guys, I still did.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
Bet James West. I mean it's just too I mean
everything I mentioned about Abrams, it's the same thing with
what and what has been incredible this season.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
I mean, what price did you get him at?
Speaker 1 (14:10):
I got him at I think to forty it's down,
and then again at two. Yeah, it's it's just uh yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
I mean that's like peak Aaron Judge pricing right there,
and he's hitting like it practically, So yeah, I love that.
A lot of Dinger's potential in Denver tonight, my last
bet of the sixty grade section. You can go back
to game you talked about in the eighty grade section.
You like two homers for the Giants tonight, and I
like the Giants money line tonight against the Royals. Three
(14:40):
point one percent edge on this one according to the
bar Tolo tool. Tyler Morley's been bad this year, but
he's maybe due for some regression. He's s P one
twenty seven right now in Zerrilla's model, compared to his
counterpart a Villa, who you talked about, who Zerrilla has
all the way down at SP one eight. This is
a true sickle matchup. Let's be honest, nobody's watching this
(15:00):
game unless you have a bet on it or you're
specifically a fan of these two teams. Zerrilla was on
Royal's money line yesterday that paid off, But this is
truly a matchup between two of the worst teams in
baseball this year, two teams that are going to look
starkly different in a couple of weeks as they're likely
going to sell some parts ahead of the trade deadline.
Both teams do have relatively rested bullpens tonight, but the
(15:23):
Giants are only down a fatigue JT. Brubaker, who's not
one of their more important arms, while the Royals will
likely be without Stephen Cruz in the bullpen that's already
rated twenty seventh in baseball, and Cruise is one of
the few somewhat competent arms in that Kansas City bullpen.
All told, I like the Giants on the money line
tonight because this is close to a Pickham Price Giants
(15:45):
money line minus one ten tonight in Kansas City. All right,
let's move on to our forty grade section before we
get out of here. We'll keep this one quick. Grant
has two more homers from the same game, and I've
got two pro projection edges in the home run market
that I want to ask Grant about. So Grant go
ahead with two home run bets in Padre's braves tonight.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Yeah, yeah, No, Padres Braves Lopez, he had his one
seaton was coming out of the bullpen, had that one
season where he looked great after many years with the
White Sox of looking like he could be good at
any time and just wasn't, and I have him kind
of grated out. Is right around an average matchup for
both righty and lefty power, which makes both these lines
far too high, especially considering wind is blowing in slightly,
(16:34):
but tempts are close to ninety degrees, so it's right
around neutral pitching weather, neutral matchup, and we're getting Manny
Machado at plus four fifty four. It's funny I gave
him out yesterday on the video and people will lose
their mind, like he's batting one ninety six. You know
what is not relevant at all to home runs is
batting average. Yeah, it did. Really look at Kyle Schwerber
(16:57):
over ask Adam done, Adam done, another prow back in
the day, and yeah, Chado's still hitting the ball hard.
He's just striking out a lot too. And he's been
in a well above average home run hitter this season,
so getting him an average spot at plus four fifty
four is far too high. And the other guy, Jackson
Merril plus six point fifty. He's been He started off
(17:20):
the season pretty terrible. He's been better since the beginning
of June. I think he has one nine home runs
that it's been a home runs, so something decent, like
not out of this world not but kind of what
we saw from him last season. He's a well above
average home run hitter given an average spot plus six
fifty odds is just far too high. So I really
liked both of them. It's weird. For most of the season,
(17:43):
I've not been betting Padres just because Meero looks so
bad and Machado.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
I just did hasn't been able to hit.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
Obviously, I'm very glad I stuck away. I think yesterday
was actually the first day I bet him all season long.
It didn't work out, but I got Machado, so I
can't playing too much. But yeah, like Padres, I generally
just cross off the list. The more I've looked into
Machado like he's he's just he's not gonna get any hits,
but he'll get some bombs. And he's finally starting to
(18:12):
look priced like some solid value, at least the last
two days. So rolling with him to get in today.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
All right, couple of pro edges I want to throw
your way. But but first, in the YouTube chat, we
have a do it All Chris asking about Gavin Sheetztinger tonight.
Grant any thoughts on sheets in that game.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
I'm just checking his odds, I mean, at his odds.
I definitely thought about it. You can get him anywhere
from plus seven hundred to plus seven point fifty. I
have his true odds right around plus six thirty, so
definitely don't hate him there. It's some pretty solid value
if you can get him up near plus seven fifty
in seven spots, but make sure you line shop because
(18:56):
I'm seeing him as low as plus five twenty five.
But if you get him at seven to twenty over
at DK or seven to fifty over at Bette Rivers, absolutely.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
It's a good segue to the pro projections because in
Padres Braves tonight, the top pro projection edges are the
guy I'm gonna ask you about, and then Jackson Merrill second,
Manny Machado's third, and Gavin Sheets is fourth. But the
guy that I want to ask about, the guy that
I'm gonna throw out there as a forty grade bet
just to throw some homers out there for Dinger Tuesday,
(19:26):
is Austin Riley, another guy who has struggled a ton
but still has huge home run upside. Plus six point
twenty five I think is the best price out there
on Riley at bet three sixty five. And then the
other home run edge I want to ask you about
Grant there was no top edges in this game, which
(19:48):
is not to be surprised because we've already talked about
it quite a bit. But I wanted to find a
home run bet in National's Rockies. You found one in Abrams.
You said you also bet James would. But our top
edge in that game by pro projections is Dylan Cruise,
just a two point nine percent edge. It's not significant
right below him. If you want other edges, you got
Curtis Mead at plus four twenty.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
You got TJ.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Rumfield at plus five twenty. But Cruise is the guy
I'm going with because I like betting with her pro
projections plus five to twenty five at two point nine
percent edge. So any thoughts on Riley's price tonight as
well as Dylan Cruz in that Rockies Nets game.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
Yeah, So starting off with Riley, I love him today.
I actually got him at plus seven hundred like an
hour ago, so wow, the odds I've definitely dropped a
little bit. And I did see the pro projections and like,
I look at him every morning just to start to
figure out where to look at, and immediately saw Riley
at plus seven hundred and Walker Bueller on the rent Mound,
(20:46):
who start off a season very well, has not been
as good recently. Historically has been a very reverse splits guy,
especially when it comes to power, and he just was
not giving up bombs up until about a month ago.
And you look at it, his last four starts he
has given up seven bombs. The rest of the season,
(21:06):
I think he gave up five. So he's finally starting
to unravel, finally starting to get that home run variant
that I've been waiting for all season long, and luckily
I've bet against him in a few of those, so yeah,
prefer targeting rites against him. Again. The weather's right around neutral,
but I've had him as a big plus matchup for
righty power all season long. Really really bit me in
(21:28):
the butt from most the beginning of the season, but
it's been great recently. Finally come around and then yeah, Mead,
so me I still have him as value. I just
did not have him as much value as both Wood
and Abrams. Again, Lorenzo and I have as well above
average splits when it comes to power, so way worse
(21:48):
versus lefties than righties. I do still like Mead, I
get or I mean Cruz or Mead. Sorry cru Cruse
was the guy I gave out. I can't remember which
one was, honestly, I have both of them at slight value. Yeah,
Needs been surprising good this season, but yeah, both of
them at slight value. It's again I just prefer lefties
than righties versus Lorenzen. But given the weather in that
(22:11):
park today, I do have Cruise and Mead at slight value,
just not nearly as much as Wood or Abrams, just
because larger than average splits by Lorenzen.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
If you needed any further reason to subscribe to Action Pro,
which are pretty ser already thrown up those pro top
props on the screen for you. Grant said he checks
these first thing in the morning when he started his
Dinger process. If you're tailing Grant's bets, Grant is using
this pro tool and again with the three months for
the price of two. If you sign up right now,
(22:44):
that takes you to toward the end of October. So
you're getting the start of NFL, giving me the start
of college football. You're getting a decent chunk of the
MLB playoffs. So great time, No time like the present
to sign up for Action Progain Action Network dot Com,
slash Pro, if you're looking to take advantage of that offer,
that's gonna do it. For today's episode of Payoff Pitch.
(23:04):
Thanks for tuning in. If you'd like to tail some
of the bets from today's episode, look for the quick
slip links in the episode description. Also, don't forget to
download the free award winning Action Network app and leave
us a five star rating and review wherever you listen
to the podcast. If you're on YouTube, throw this video alike.
Throw us a comment with what you're betting tonight. We
(23:26):
very much appreciate that as well. We'll be back on
Friday with another episode for Granted Dfer. I'm Collin Richard.
Thanks so much for listening to Payoff Pitch, Action Network's
Major League Baseball betting podcast, and good luck with all
your bets.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
Heard this crowd on his feet? What a trig No
watch Joy
Fall, no crying, and this game's other way the line up.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It is Springs offering Josh the bit out signed. Here's
a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
It will be a home run.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
And hello, good time you're talking about a roll at
the dice.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch Welcome to Payoff Pitch Action Networks,
Major League Baseball Betting podcast. It is Tuesday, July twenty First,
I'm Collen Richard, joined today by Granton Nefer of Scores
Nods to break down our best bets for this busy
full Tuesday slate, full slate of games, all under the lights.
(00:55):
No Seanzrillo today, he's off. I'll be looking through his
awesome Bartolo Tool to find his edges and present them
to you. And then Grant, of course, is gonna hit
you with his favorite Dinger bets from tonight's slate. Some
very intriguing games from a dinger standpoint. Tonight, for sure,
I'll go ahead and get us started with the first
(01:17):
bet of the game. This is Sean Zarrillo's biggest projected
edge currently on the Bartolo Tool. Reminder, if you're new
to this or if you're not familiar with Sean's Bartolo Tool,
which you can access in the action app Actionnetwork dot Com.
You can basically access Sean Zarrillo's Baseball handicapping brain break
(01:39):
down all of his top edges, every single aspect of
a game that goes into his model, and where he
finds these edges. So even when Shawn isn't able to
join us as he is today, we can still talk
about Sean's favorite bets, which is great. And so that's
what I'm gonna go ahead and do today. Pick and
choose a little bit. I'm not just you know, speeling
(01:59):
out out what Sean says. I'm putting some thought into
it a little bit as well. There are some other
edges that he has in the Bartolo Tool that I'm
not presenting to you today, So I implore you to
check that out. Some first five edges, some other totals,
some other sides. But the first one I'm going to
get to the biggest edge in there that I like
is the under in Tiger's Cubs today eight and a half.
(02:22):
I've got an eight point six percent edge on that
under today. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley today
at more than fifteen miles an hour to Wriggly win
under the exact opposite of what we saw last night,
where we had near twenty mile an hour wins blowing
out to straightaway center Grant. I know you cashed some
Dylan Dingler love last night going deep. Riley Green went
(02:44):
deep several Cubs home runs in that extra inning game.
But tonight it is the polar opposite wind blank blowing
straight in from center field. That's why we get a
total of eight and a half, despite the fact that
it is not the most appealing pitching matchup in the
world from Berveldez against David Peterson fromber Obviously, ace level
talent at times hasn't been great this year. David Peterson
(03:04):
has been down right horrible this year. This is I
think maybe his third or fourth start since coming to
Chicago over in that trade with the Mets. But despite
both these guys struggles, they are both sinkerballers. Even Peterson
still induces grounders nearly half the time, even if it's down,
even if that rate is down from back when he
was actually good. These are also two of the better
(03:26):
defensive teams in the league. The Cubs are elite obviously,
and despite last night's wild game, neither team enters with
a notably fatigued bullpen, So with the wind blowing the
way it is and Wrigley normally you'd see seven and
a half, maybe down to seven. I think that this
is bumped up a little bit too much because of
the quality of the starting pitchers. So we're getting value there.
(03:47):
So Tiger's Cubs under eight and a half. That is
the first eighty grade bet of today's show. Grant your
two to eighty grade home run bets come from the
same game. I have a bet on this game as
well that aligns with your home run bets. We're going
to Giants Royals tonight. A pretty gross pitching matchup here,
(04:10):
Tyler Mally Lunder Avila and you like two Giants hitters tonight, Yeah,
I mean.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
We don't have a huge sample size of Villa as
a starter, and the major thing has just made nine
starts so far in his career, but overall he kind
of grades out. Is right around an average matchup for
home runs for both lefties and varieties, and the odds
really don't imply that for a lot of the Giants hitters.
So first one is Raphael Devers hit home run plus
(04:39):
four fifty fours where I got mat. You can find
hi anymore from plus four to twenty plus four fifty four,
and I'm fine with any of those. Devers has been
better after a slow start to the season. He's been
hitting the ball well. The ballpark is an upgrade. I
know Royal Stadium or Kaufman has been historically bad for
home runs. They did move into fences and it's been
(04:59):
weird this year. A lot of that has been kind
of weather driven and just random variant, but it is
a significant upgrade in terms of ballpark. Over San Francisco,
that's one of the worst, probably the worst ballpark in
the league. So getting an upgrade there. Devers has been
hitting the ball grade the matchup is right around average.
Wind is blowing in slightly, but attempts in the high eighties,
(05:21):
so the ball should actually be flying right around normal.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Like.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
It's really not an upgrade or down grade for hitting.
So given just a fully average matchup in a ballpark,
upgrade for Devers plus four fifty four is far too
high in my opinion. The second guy is going to
be Casey Schmidt plus four to seventy five. You can
get this aloid anywhere from four point twenty all the
way to four seventy five. Again, I like it at
(05:45):
any of those numbers. He's just he's been hitting the
ball grade this season, got good power, and again this
is a pretty decent ballpark upgrade over San Francisco, especially
we consider the temperatures are close to ninety degrees here.
So I again this is just a price play, but
I have both these guys tru odds under plus four
hundred here, so some very very solid value on both
(06:08):
those guys.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
Nice little breakout, surprise breakout year for Casey Schmid, who's
been maybe the Giant's best offensive player all year. He
entered the year with twenty three career homers and has
nineteen this year, so big, big homer upside for him,
kind of out of nowheric plays a little bit of
everywhere for the Giants. So those two picks in Giants
Royals tonight. I have one more eighty grade. Bet I'll
(06:32):
get to real short analysis in this one. National's Rockies
over thirteen. Yes, thirteen is the total at Cours tonight.
I think there are some heavily juice twelve and a
half still out there, but I like over thirteen at
just the regular minus one ten range. This is a
seven point one percent edge. Gordon's a real model. It's
my hills. Michaelis against Michael Lorenzen one of the more
(06:55):
hilariously inept pitching matchups in quite some time, at least
among that you recognize. They're no lunder Avila, who nobody
knows about, but everyone has heard of Smiles Michaelis and
Michael Lorenzen, and they're both very, very bad at this
stage in their careers. They're pitching at course tonight. It
is going to be eighty eight degrees at first pitch,
with thirteen mile one hour wins blowing out to left
(07:17):
center field. Nobody's fatigued for either team in their bullpen
except Riley Cornelio for Washington. But it matters not given
what these bullpens are. These are Zerrilla's twenty ninth and
thirtieth ranked bullpens in baseball. So with the weather, with
the pitching, Washington still having one of, if not the
best offense in all of baseball. Somehow, this is an
(07:40):
easy over for me. Grant. I think you're going to
talk about at least one homer bet you have in
this game. But it's I'm not surprised that you don't
have more, because you know, odds makers know what we're
gonna get today. And I was looking at the Homer
odds out of this game, and there are like five
or six guys priced short to three to one. I
think Hunter good Men's and like the plus one something range,
(08:02):
which you usually only see like show hey Otani at
that number. So that just goes to tell you what
kind of offense we're gonna get tonight. You would think
this would be where the sharps would maybe zag and say, oh,
this number is too high, We're gonna go under here,
But now I think that it's somehow still too low.
So over thirteen in Nationals Rockies my other best bet
(08:25):
from today's slay again with the help of Sean Zarillo's
bar Tolo model before we move on. The World Cup
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All right, let's jump down to our sixty grade section
(09:08):
where Grant has two more homers and I have two
more bets. We will go to the latest game out
West first for you, Grant JJ I gave it away.
You like JJ bil Day and Red's Mariners Today tell
us why I mean.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Stio just doesn't really have stuff versus lefties anymore. He's
been surprisingly gid versus rieties this season, has a two
point five six FIP three point two four x FIP,
only allowing point four nine home runs per nine to rieties. Lefties,
it's an entirely different story one point seven six home
runs per nine to lefties this season FIP and x
(09:48):
fIF sitting right around five point three, So he just
doesn't have stuff to get out lefties anymore. Today obviously
has slowed down since his great start of the season,
But barrel raid, everything doesn't look too bad. It's still
got some decent pop and we're getting a solid number
here at plus four to twenty five, anywhere from plus
three seventy to plus four to twenty five like all those.
(10:08):
Just the matchup is too good. The ballpark obviously a downgrade,
but considering how bad Castillo has been versus lefties here,
the odds are just far too high. And weirdly hot
day over in Seattle today. I think it's going to
be mid eighties and that's just not normal at all
(10:28):
for Seattle. So it should be a decent bump to
hitting over all there. And yeah, oddsumbleday are just far
too high given how inept Castillo has been this season.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Real Ron Burgundy moment for me there. I'm just staring
at JJ Bleda's name, trying to set you up, and
I just go JJ oaps. But yes, that's a great
Reds Mariners angle. I've got another total here in also
out west in Cardinals Angels over nine with a three
point three percent edge. Here math matchup of Matthew Liberator
(11:02):
and Wilbert Urina. It's been rough sledding for Liberator. Uh
you know, once showed a decent amount of promise, once
top pitching prospect in the Cardinal system. I believe they
got him from the Rays for Randy a Rose Arena,
a move that you know, for all the Cardinals Devil Magic,
that is a trade that very much did not work
out in their favor. Librator is now rated as Sean
Zerrilla's SP one two, which is even his opposing starter tonight.
(11:27):
Wilbert Urina, who nobody knows about, is better. He's SP
ninety eight right now. Weather adjustment and in Anaheim tonight
gives a two point two percent bump to the offenses.
The Cardinals bullpen is ranked twenty fifth, while the Angels
are more middle of the pack fifteenth, but both offenses
are above average against their respective split Tonight, the Cardinals
have a one oh four WRC plus against right handed pitching,
(11:48):
Angels up at one oh eight against left handed pitching,
which for all the Angels struggles, they've been able to
hit left handed pitching this year, which should give them
a boost. So all told, I like over nine in
Cardinals Angels tonight. Grant your last bet of the sixty
grade section. We will go back to what I alluded
to in Rockies Nationals tonight. We talked about how it's
(12:13):
kind of hard to find some dinger value in that game,
given what the books know and given what works back
to the see tonight. But you did find one hitter
who is priced at a point that you like tonight.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Yeah, I mean yeah, this game. Lorenzen has not been
good versus lefties this season. He's just been straight at
bad one point eight to one home runs for nine,
and it's been distinctly worse at home. And obviously he
is at home, and the weather is phenomenal today, high
eighties is going to be right around ninety degrees during
game time, win blowing out at eleven miles an hour.
(12:47):
There's a chance of rain Denver, but should play fine.
Abrams has been phenomenal this season. He's been hanging the
ball very well, has a lot of pop, There's a
big ballpark up grade, everything kind of going for him,
and still to get odds plus three fifty seems far too.
I have his true odds right around plus two seventy here.
So given the great spot, the great weather, the ballpark upgrade,
(13:10):
everything just going for him, and he's still priced kind
of where he generally is. I mean, he generally can
find him in a OK matchup at plus three fifty
plus four hundred. This is a great spot, and we're
getting these odds absolutely silly to me. I love him today,
I just wish. I just don't love betting guys at
(13:31):
plus three fifty. I've prefer plus four hundred plus four
fifty range. But given the spot this is, this is
very far off.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
C J. Abrams one of the best hitters and one
of the surprising best offenses in baseball this year. Tough
to go wrong there. Again, you look at the top
Dinger guys in that game, Hunter Goodman, James Wood. Of
course you're getting even less value there. Even with how
enticing it is to bet those guys, I still did.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
Bet James West. I mean it's just too I mean
everything I mentioned about Abrams, it's the same thing with
what and what has been incredible this season.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
I mean, what price did you get him at?
Speaker 1 (14:10):
I got him at I think to forty it's down,
and then again at two. Yeah, it's it's just uh yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
I mean that's like peak Aaron Judge pricing right there,
and he's hitting like it practically, So yeah, I love that.
A lot of Dinger's potential in Denver tonight, my last
bet of the sixty grade section. You can go back
to game you talked about in the eighty grade section.
You like two homers for the Giants tonight, and I
like the Giants money line tonight against the Royals. Three
(14:40):
point one percent edge on this one according to the
bar Tolo tool. Tyler Morley's been bad this year, but
he's maybe due for some regression. He's s P one
twenty seven right now in Zerrilla's model, compared to his
counterpart a Villa, who you talked about, who Zerrilla has
all the way down at SP one eight. This is
a true sickle matchup. Let's be honest, nobody's watching this
(15:00):
game unless you have a bet on it or you're
specifically a fan of these two teams. Zerrilla was on
Royal's money line yesterday that paid off, But this is
truly a matchup between two of the worst teams in
baseball this year, two teams that are going to look
starkly different in a couple of weeks as they're likely
going to sell some parts ahead of the trade deadline.
Both teams do have relatively rested bullpens tonight, but the
(15:23):
Giants are only down a fatigue JT. Brubaker, who's not
one of their more important arms, while the Royals will
likely be without Stephen Cruz in the bullpen that's already
rated twenty seventh in baseball, and Cruise is one of
the few somewhat competent arms in that Kansas City bullpen.
All told, I like the Giants on the money line
tonight because this is close to a Pickham Price Giants
(15:45):
money line minus one ten tonight in Kansas City. All right,
let's move on to our forty grade section before we
get out of here. We'll keep this one quick. Grant
has two more homers from the same game, and I've
got two pro projection edges in the home run market
that I want to ask Grant about. So Grant go
ahead with two home run bets in Padre's braves tonight.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Yeah, yeah, No, Padres Braves Lopez, he had his one
seaton was coming out of the bullpen, had that one
season where he looked great after many years with the
White Sox of looking like he could be good at
any time and just wasn't, and I have him kind
of grated out. Is right around an average matchup for
both righty and lefty power, which makes both these lines
far too high, especially considering wind is blowing in slightly,
(16:34):
but tempts are close to ninety degrees, so it's right
around neutral pitching weather, neutral matchup, and we're getting Manny
Machado at plus four fifty four. It's funny I gave
him out yesterday on the video and people will lose
their mind, like he's batting one ninety six. You know
what is not relevant at all to home runs is
batting average. Yeah, it did. Really look at Kyle Schwerber
(16:57):
over ask Adam done, Adam done, another prow back in
the day, and yeah, Chado's still hitting the ball hard.
He's just striking out a lot too. And he's been
in a well above average home run hitter this season,
so getting him an average spot at plus four fifty
four is far too high. And the other guy, Jackson
Merril plus six point fifty. He's been He started off
(17:20):
the season pretty terrible. He's been better since the beginning
of June. I think he has one nine home runs
that it's been a home runs, so something decent, like
not out of this world not but kind of what
we saw from him last season. He's a well above
average home run hitter given an average spot plus six
fifty odds is just far too high. So I really
liked both of them. It's weird. For most of the season,
(17:43):
I've not been betting Padres just because Meero looks so
bad and Machado.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
I just did hasn't been able to hit.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
Obviously, I'm very glad I stuck away. I think yesterday
was actually the first day I bet him all season long.
It didn't work out, but I got Machado, so I
can't playing too much. But yeah, like Padres, I generally
just cross off the list. The more I've looked into
Machado like he's he's just he's not gonna get any hits,
but he'll get some bombs. And he's finally starting to
(18:12):
look priced like some solid value, at least the last
two days. So rolling with him to get in today.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
All right, couple of pro edges I want to throw
your way. But but first, in the YouTube chat, we
have a do it All Chris asking about Gavin Sheetztinger tonight.
Grant any thoughts on sheets in that game.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
I'm just checking his odds, I mean, at his odds.
I definitely thought about it. You can get him anywhere
from plus seven hundred to plus seven point fifty. I
have his true odds right around plus six thirty, so
definitely don't hate him there. It's some pretty solid value
if you can get him up near plus seven fifty
in seven spots, but make sure you line shop because
(18:56):
I'm seeing him as low as plus five twenty five.
But if you get him at seven to twenty over
at DK or seven to fifty over at Bette Rivers, absolutely.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
It's a good segue to the pro projections because in
Padres Braves tonight, the top pro projection edges are the
guy I'm gonna ask you about, and then Jackson Merrill second,
Manny Machado's third, and Gavin Sheets is fourth. But the
guy that I want to ask about, the guy that
I'm gonna throw out there as a forty grade bet
just to throw some homers out there for Dinger Tuesday,
(19:26):
is Austin Riley, another guy who has struggled a ton
but still has huge home run upside. Plus six point
twenty five I think is the best price out there
on Riley at bet three sixty five. And then the
other home run edge I want to ask you about
Grant there was no top edges in this game, which
(19:48):
is not to be surprised because we've already talked about
it quite a bit. But I wanted to find a
home run bet in National's Rockies. You found one in Abrams.
You said you also bet James would. But our top
edge in that game by pro projections is Dylan Cruise,
just a two point nine percent edge. It's not significant
right below him. If you want other edges, you got
Curtis Mead at plus four twenty.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
You got TJ.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Rumfield at plus five twenty. But Cruise is the guy
I'm going with because I like betting with her pro
projections plus five to twenty five at two point nine
percent edge. So any thoughts on Riley's price tonight as
well as Dylan Cruz in that Rockies Nets game.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
Yeah, So starting off with Riley, I love him today.
I actually got him at plus seven hundred like an
hour ago, so wow, the odds I've definitely dropped a
little bit. And I did see the pro projections and like,
I look at him every morning just to start to
figure out where to look at, and immediately saw Riley
at plus seven hundred and Walker Bueller on the rent Mound,
(20:46):
who start off a season very well, has not been
as good recently. Historically has been a very reverse splits guy,
especially when it comes to power, and he just was
not giving up bombs up until about a month ago.
And you look at it, his last four starts he
has given up seven bombs. The rest of the season,
(21:06):
I think he gave up five. So he's finally starting
to unravel, finally starting to get that home run variant
that I've been waiting for all season long, and luckily
I've bet against him in a few of those, so yeah,
prefer targeting rites against him. Again. The weather's right around neutral,
but I've had him as a big plus matchup for
righty power all season long. Really really bit me in
(21:28):
the butt from most the beginning of the season, but
it's been great recently. Finally come around and then yeah, Mead,
so me I still have him as value. I just
did not have him as much value as both Wood
and Abrams. Again, Lorenzo and I have as well above
average splits when it comes to power, so way worse
(21:48):
versus lefties than righties. I do still like Mead, I
get or I mean Cruz or Mead. Sorry cru Cruse
was the guy I gave out. I can't remember which
one was, honestly, I have both of them at slight value. Yeah,
Needs been surprising good this season, but yeah, both of
them at slight value. It's again I just prefer lefties
than righties versus Lorenzen. But given the weather in that
(22:11):
park today, I do have Cruise and Mead at slight value,
just not nearly as much as Wood or Abrams, just
because larger than average splits by Lorenzen.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
If you needed any further reason to subscribe to Action Pro,
which are pretty ser already thrown up those pro top
props on the screen for you. Grant said he checks
these first thing in the morning when he started his
Dinger process. If you're tailing Grant's bets, Grant is using
this pro tool and again with the three months for
the price of two. If you sign up right now,
(22:44):
that takes you to toward the end of October. So
you're getting the start of NFL, giving me the start
of college football. You're getting a decent chunk of the
MLB playoffs. So great time, No time like the present
to sign up for Action Progain Action Network dot Com,
slash Pro, if you're looking to take advantage of that offer,
that's gonna do it. For today's episode of Payoff Pitch.
(23:04):
Thanks for tuning in. If you'd like to tail some
of the bets from today's episode, look for the quick
slip links in the episode description. Also, don't forget to
download the free award winning Action Network app and leave
us a five star rating and review wherever you listen
to the podcast. If you're on YouTube, throw this video alike.
Throw us a comment with what you're betting tonight. We
(23:26):
very much appreciate that as well. We'll be back on
Friday with another episode for Granted Dfer. I'm Collin Richard.
Thanks so much for listening to Payoff Pitch, Action Network's
Major League Baseball betting podcast, and good luck with all
your bets.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
Heard this crowd on his feet? What a trig No
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