August 10, 2026 • 33 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Sean Zerillo and Collin Whitchurch are here to break down the Monday's MLB slate. They dive into sides, totals, and a LOT of first five plays today. Tune in to hear his top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page so you don't miss our live shows every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Fall, no crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
In the line up, it is Springs offering Josh the
bit outside.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos who
will be a home run.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And look to time you're talking about a roll at
the dice.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch, Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Monday, August tenth. I'm Colin Richard, joined as
usual by Action Network senior MLB analyst Sean Zarrillo to
break down this Monday MLB slate, not a full slate
as it usually is on Monday. We've got what three, six, nine,
(00:58):
ten games all under the light tonight, some decent pitching matchup,
some decent favorites and underdogs. Uh, it's going to be
a short one today, a small card for you today, Sean.
We're not going to go with the eighty sixty forty.
We're just going to give out your four or five
favorite bets on the show and uh call it a day.
(01:19):
So let's jump right into it with our best bets.
In your first one, we're going to go to Brewers
Padres in San Diego Tonight, Casey Mai is making his
second start for the Padres since coming over. In the
trade deadline, Logan Henderson making a case for Milwaukee's playoff rotation.
(01:39):
Where are you going with this one today?
Speaker 1 (01:41):
Yeah, Brewers first five money line. I like it up
to you about minus one thirty five. I make it
closer to minus one forty five. Project Henderson substantially better
than Casey mis I have myes pushing closer to a
leg gabage starter now Henderson ranking closer to the number ones. There's,
i'd say, of all the pitchers right now, the big
different or the biggest disagreement between like their projections right
(02:03):
the public projections Oopsie vat ATC Steamer. The biggest disagreement
between a starting pitcher's public projections and their underlying indicators
might be Logan Henderson. If it's not Henderson, it's probably Miserowski.
Because Miserowski's expected FIP and SIERRA have gone under two.
Henderson's are sitting in the low twos. He's at or
(02:26):
mid twos. He's at two point six for his expected
era on the year, expected FIP around two seven, but
all of his projections are still a run higher. His
average projection is four point one. I think he's much
better than that. I think he's proven that he's much
better than that. And if you look at his trend
line as compart to Casey Mis's trend line, they're moving
in opposite directions. Henderson came back from injury strike at
(02:48):
minus walk over thirty percent walk or his rate of
balls going down, his rate of cald strikes and whiffs
going up. It's the exact opposite for Casey myis and
I think the Tigers might have traded him at the
right time. There's some red flag injury concerns in the
Casey Mies profile. Strike up minus walk is dipped below
major league average just nine percent in his past five starts.
(03:09):
Granted to get shelt in his last start, and you
can write that one off a little bit. But if
the ball percentage wasn't going up, if his fastball spin
was it also dropping, I would be willing to write
it off. It just seems like Casey Mayes is losing
effectiveness as the season goes along. Here a guy's dealt
with injury, and Jo's injury issues in the past never
really managed to get through full seasons. Might be fatiguing
(03:32):
here in the second half. So not only do I
project a starting pitching edge for the Brewers, also prefer
their lineup. They project better about three points better in
terms of WRC plus against righty's, but also they have
more power. The Podres have more contact, which could be
an issue for Henderson because Henderson throws a lot of
balls in the middle of the zone and gets dudes
to swing through them. We'll see if the Padres could
(03:52):
follow those pitches off. But the Brewers have the better
power and the better plate discipline of the pair, and
also they're the better defensive and running team. So throughout
the first five innings, I give you Brewers the advantage
everywhere bullpen tilts towards the Podreys later in the game,
especially because it looks like the Brewers may be down
several key arms today. Avenuer Uribe I believe is tired.
(04:15):
Ashby is tired, so that's why I stayed away from
the full game line. I still show a slight edge
on the Brewers over the full game, but it definitely
a much bigger edge of the first five. So Brewers
first five up to minus one thirty five. The alternative
angle here it's correlated, but it's the alternative angle. Podrais
team total under three and a half. It was minus
one ten last night, it's minus one eighteen. Now I
(04:36):
probably only like it up to about minus one twenty,
but that would be the alternative vet if you can't
get the first five numbers, just the first five numbers
the same Brice essentially on. I think it's you know
again with the bolt been stuff for the Brewers. It's
a bigger edge anyway. So the first the team total,
and the money line sort of correlate to one another,
but the first five is the biggest edge of the three.
(04:57):
That would be the alternative approach. PO was taking one.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
Padres hanging around this playoff race, I know they've been
a fade candidate, I believe early in the season in
terms of playoff markets, it seems.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
Like it's never the Diamondbacks for that final spot there. Yeah,
they had a pretty competitive series last week, so I
would expect it to come down to one of those
two teams.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
Yeah, Diamondbacks Phillies currently tied for wild card spots two
and three. Marlin's Cardinals also lurking there, but probably probably
going to be Padres or Diamondbacks parting slip back a
little bit?
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Right?
Speaker 3 (05:34):
What's that?
Speaker 1 (05:34):
The Pirates are starting to slip back a little bit?
Speaker 3 (05:36):
Yeah, they're I mean they've they're on a really five
and a half. They're behind Washington and the Cardinals.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Well, the Reds completely collapsed there.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
Yeah, bummer about the Pirates. I want to see them.
You know they got those bullpen reinforcements. We'll see. Still
a long way to go. Goodn't important to remember it
is August tenth, and what was it like August twenty
eighth last year or something like that, the Guardians worth
thirteen and a half back of the Tigers.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
Yep, So a lot.
Speaker 3 (06:04):
Can happen still, even as as it gets late here.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Yeah, every year we see one surprising team make run late,
one team who's in a good spot collapses late. So
something's gonna happen. We just don't know where it does. Yep, yep.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
All right, next bet, we are going to the Mets
and Braves in Atlanta tonight, Christian Scott against Bryce Elder
and you're looking at another first five here.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Yeah, a bunch of first five bets today. I actually
added one late as well, so we have five bets
today for them or in the first five innings, and
then we have one full game total. Christian Scott projects
as a top forty starting pitcher for me. I have
Bryce elder at one fifty two, so more than a
full run in not more than a full run, about
a full run in terms of projected fit between these
(06:48):
two starting pitchers, again, very similar stories. I just kind
of discussed with Casey miz. You know, Christian Scott maintaining
a strikeout minus walk about twenty four percent. Elders has
fallen below le gaverage. He's sitting around eight percent in
his recent sample. His velocity is dipped, fastball spin is
about the same, but the ball rate is going up,
so he's just not being nearly as efficient in terms
(07:10):
of his pitch. Mis ball rate's been over forty percent
twice in his past three starts. It's very concerning. Christian
Scott since he came back for the Mets, has looked
hyper efficient, arguably been their best starter aside from Nolan McLain.
Old McClain's been taking off in the second half. But
with those two guys going forward, it seems like they
have a pretty nice core atop their rotation. And then again,
(07:31):
you know, not just the projections, or I should say,
you know, projections push these guys closer together. The underlying
indicators say that they're further apart. So another place where
I sort of disagree with the projections. The deeper we
get into a season, you know, as we have more
underlying data for these guys, I'm more willing to trust it.
The Braves have the better offense here, they have the
(07:51):
better bullpen. Again why I'm staying away from the full
game edge, But in terms of the first five I
actually make the Mets a slight favorite. I have them
at about minus one oh seven. Was able to get
plus one seventeen this morning. I would take that down
to even money, and then again, like the last game
I discussed, the alternative here would be a team total approach.
These are the only two team totals that currently show
an edge right now. Actually there's a third, but I'd
(08:13):
rather avoid that one. But the Padres, as I said,
under three and a half minus one eighteen, the Mets
over three and a half minus one eighteen, same number,
bigger edge. I like that up to about minus one
twenty five, and the Mets, as I said, the first
five money line is plus one seventeen down to even money.
That's where i'd take that number. But I actually like
(08:33):
the the team total. Here is why I may end
up adding that, because the Braves may have some guys
who are down today as well, and Olds pitched well.
I guess you would say based on the game logs
lately two runs, one run, one run past three starts,
but you look at the strikeouts and walks like pretty
much even, it's just he's not as efficient and he's
going to get hit at some point, hopefully that is today.
(08:55):
But we'll take some first five money line and consider
adding the team total once the Mets lineup drops. Mets.
Mets have been hitting, you know, Semion finally hitting over
the past couple of weeks, Jorge Polanco, who at one
point had a lower slash line than lou gerrig suffering
from als that was pretty devastating for Horey Polanco's now
this season, he's now finally hitting. Francisco Alvarez has been
(09:17):
on a tear of late my dude, so it seems
like this is the best the Mets offense has performed
this year without Juan Soto in the lineup, so hopefully
they can keep it going tonight and get Christian Scott's
some early runs.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
Polanco and Semion specifically getting hot after the Mets fall
out of contention would be just it's just like a
knife in the back. Basically, it's like, yeah, I.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Think Lou Bob Homer yesterday as well, like they're all
they're all going now.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
So yeah, interesting little playoff subplot these last two months too,
is the Braves are actually ahead of the Dodgers right
now for that second National League payoff seed, and of
course that's the the other by uh in the first round.
So that's a that's a big deal and something to
keep an eye on.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
Yeah, Dodgers didn't get the buy last year and then
we got a last year card round to win the
World Ares.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
Speaking of the Dodgers, they are at home against the
Royals tonight. Trek Skubele making his second Dodger start against
Noah Cameron. He's looking at this right before we recorded
biggest favorites of the year Dodgers. As of this recording consensus,
Odge they're minus three to twenty five on the money line.
(10:23):
That would be if it closes there, the seventh biggest
favorite of this season. Of the other six, four of
those are also Dodgers games. Not surprisingly, we have a
Dodgers Rockies, a Dodgers Giants, a Dodger's Angels, and another
Dodger's Rockies on there, and then we have a Brewer's
Rockies in a Phillies Nationals. The only favorite that lost
(10:47):
of those other six were the Dodgers against the Giants
back in early May. They lost six to two. As
minus three forty four favorites. Today again Scooble against Cameron.
The Dodgers are minus three twenty five Royals plus two
sixty on the underdogs, and you do have a You're
(11:08):
not it doesn't look like you're going full game Royals here,
but you do have an angle where you like the
underdogs just based on the price.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
I'm guessing yeah, I show an edge for the full
game as well, but a bigger edge for the first
five innings. So attacking Scoobols specifically in the first five
seems like an awkward approach. Not getting the bullpens involved.
I hate this Royals bullpen. I would much rather have
just no camera involved over the first five innings and
more importantly, guaranteed having a lefty in there for at
least the first four or four and a half innings
(11:37):
against the Dodgers offense, which, as I pointed out, number
one a baseball against right end and pitching one thirteen
worc plus even with their recent funk. But they are
six against lefties and they drop to a one oh
six and again shut down by Edward or Rodriguez yesterday.
They just struggle a little bit more with lefties. Once
you're able to neutralize Otani and Freeman and Munsey at
the top of that lineup, everything else kind of falls
(11:59):
into play, gets a little bit easier. Mookie Betts has
had a significant down year. Still know Will Smith in
the middle of that lineup, which you know against the
left handed starter is a big difference. So having a
catcher in your nine to hole that can't really hit
is a big difference for this daughter's lineup. They don't
go nine deep like they normally do, even having against
the left thee having Miguel Rojas in the eight spot
(12:21):
like it is a little bit of a sigh of relief,
you know, when you get to the bottom of that
daughter's lineup compared to what it normally looks like. And
right now Noah Cameron has been going well. He's been
a very streaky pitcher in his brief major league sample
year and a half major league sample that we've had
of him, But his past three starts seven innings, eight innings,
eight innings, strikeouts and walks on the increase. For Tark Schooble,
(12:44):
we haven't discussed it a lot this year, but his
fastball spin rate has been dipping continuously. I think this
guy is just hoping he can get to the off
season healthy and get his contract that if he's going
to break again, hopefully it happens next year, because there's
definitely not only did he have the il stint, but
there's signs of injury in his profile in the fastball,
the declining called strike close wolf rate at points throughout
(13:07):
the year. I haven't downgraded him whatsoever. I still project
him as my SP two. I still have him at
a two point seven weighted fit projection, which is right
around his era in the year two point eight. But
over the first five innings, I make the Royals about
plus two hundred. I would take their first five money
line two plus two thirty. But what I really like here,
which you don't get often, is the first five spread
(13:30):
at plus one and a half, not plus the half
plus one and a half. You could still lose the
first five innings money line and cash this ticket. I
would take that up to about minus one forty. I
make it closer to minus one fifty. For the plus
one and a half, I make it about plus one
plus blanking on it. My price target for the plus
(13:53):
half is plus one forty. If you want to play
the first five money line, take it to plus two thirty.
But I really like that plus one and a half
for the first five innings. Hopefully Royle's just keep it
within a run. Hopefully they're able to get a run
off of Schooble and eliminate some of the sweat. But
taking a shot year yes, as you said, against the
second biggest favorite on the year, but in the first
(14:14):
five innings specifically on the spread. You can mess around
with the money line or the half a run, but
I really like getting that plus one and a half.
It just does not pop up often and you only
really get it when you have a favorite north of
minus three hundred. So Royals plus one and a half
to minus one forty my bet in that game. There
is value on the full game money line. There's value
on the first five money line if you want to
mess around with it, and with the way the Dodters
(14:34):
are playing right now, maybe it's worth a shot. I
believe they've lost eight of nine or nine of ten
at this point. But yeah, that's a number that you
just don't see often and how to grab it.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
Yeah, I mean, we've been doing this together for a
long time, and I, off the top of my head,
can't recall an instance of you betting a run line.
I'm sure you'd have done it from time to times
over the years, but it's rare enough that I can't
recall it an instance off the top of my head.
So that's just a good example of how how much
of this value's popping in terms of Royal's money line.
(15:05):
You know, I pulled up the Bartolo tool when I
woke up this morning and I saw the edges, and
this is if you're betting Royal's money line, it is
prime candidate for your bonus bets.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
If you've got bonus, you know it's going to be uh,
you know it's going to be a fade the public
type of spot today.
Speaker 3 (15:19):
Yes, I went in there and I had a bonus
bet at one of the books, and I went in
there and just threw it on Royal's money line. I'm like,
why not? This is it's a great those like plus
two hundred to plus three hundred range bets are a
great spot for it. So we will root against Trek
Scubel once again today. You talk about I mean his
injury history. Everyone knows, I mean his his big injury
(15:41):
this year that people thought was going to end up
being a lot serious than it was. The short memories
that folks have, you know, back to back Cy Young's
before twenty twenty four, Scooble was known as a talented
pitcher who couldn't stay healthy. Like, yeah, he had Tommy
Johns in his past. His career high in innings before
(16:01):
twenty twenty four was one hundred and forty nine innings.
He had thrown only eighty innings the year before his
first Cy Young like that dude had arm trouble. So
you know, he seems unhittable at times. But like, it's
a very volatile profession starting pitching in Major League Baseball,
and it could go south in a hurry. Obviously, we
don't root for that at all.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
He's added a lot of weight to his frame as well.
Over time. I think it's helped, you know, make him
more durable. But the same time, he's throwing as hard
as ever. He is like very bulky in his upper half.
I do wonder about his durability long term. You know,
c C. Sabathia had a lot of weight on him,
was able to pitch forever through a ton of innings.
So maybe it's not a big deal. But Cec also
(16:44):
never had that prior injury history. Cee Cee was a
horse throughout his career, school's had the injury history. Now
he has that added weight on his frame. I do
worry about him breaking down. And I think if the
Dodgers signed him and he breaks down, and then they
have that contract and Kyle Tucker's contract on books together,
It's not like they really care from their perspective, but
that Kyle Tucker contract is already looking pretty bad, and
(17:05):
I don't know how many more of those they can
afford to take on.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Yeah, I mean, it doesn't last forever. A whole other
side conversation we don't need to get into, but like,
it doesn't last forever, Like these guys get old, Otani
will get old, you know, bets, we're already seeing Freeman's
getting old. Like it seems just people who are old
enough to remember the late nineties, early two thousands Yankees.
(17:29):
You just felt like they were going to win the
World Series or be right there every single year forever.
It seemed like it was never going to end. But
guess what it ended. People have very short memories with
these things. The Dodgers are World Series favorites this year.
They're probably going to be World Series favorites next year.
Will they win it? Who knows, But all good things
(17:51):
come to an end.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
It worth noting too. You know, I don't know if
you saw the data. You know, Sayah's put out, but
the Dodgers have seen the biggest increase in four seat
fastball rate against them. It's almost like the league decided, Hey,
this is a team full of old dudes. Why are
we throwing them spin when we could just throw it
hard and see if they could catch up with it.
So there's been a change in pitching approach against the
(18:15):
Daughters of late, which coincides with this cold streak. So
we'll see if they adjust back now that the league
is adjusted to them. But yeah, I think it's it's
an interesting strategy of this team's. You know, average age
of this lineup is like thirty three years old. Why
not throw the ball harder and see if they get
hit it.
Speaker 3 (18:29):
It is the oldest roster in the majors by average age,
no surprises there. The only young guy who gets regular
run in their lineup iss Andy pat Has, who's great obviously.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Great work if you can get it too, like to
be a Tyler Glass now or like a Blake Snow
where like they're signing you for twenty million dollars a
year just for October. Like their expectation is like, hey,
pitch fifty innings and be healthy for the playoffs, you
know if you need to, Like you're just kind of
on vacation there to take making twenty five million dollars
a year rehaving constantly living in LA and then when
(19:02):
the playoffs roll around, you're just guaranteed a playoff spot
if you're one of the four best pictures. So it's
quite the organization they've built there where they have these
twenty million dollars pittures if they don't even need until
the playoffs start.
Speaker 3 (19:13):
Yep, all right, we will move from the Dodgers naturally
to the other team you think about when you think
of world class organizations, the Colorado Rockies. They are in
Arizona tonight, divisional matchup Diamondbacks in a playoff spot right now,
tied for that wild card two to three in the
National League with the Phillies. I think that's probably the
(19:34):
most surprising. I mean not based on not based on
preseason priors, because I would obviously be like the White Sox,
but like just based on the trajectory of this team,
Like the Diamondbacks just keep hanging on. They didn't do
much at the deadline. They added Lars Nootbar and nothing else.
They're surviving with a rotation of it. Eduardo Rodriguez getting
(19:57):
by with smoking mirrors, throwing a thirty eight eight year
old Merril, Kelly, Brandon Fott, Mitch Bratt like, I don't
know how they're doing it, but they will get some
reinforcements tonight. Returning Mike Soroka hasn't pitched since mid June.
He is back. Gabriel Hughes on the mound on the
other side for the Rockies. Are you buying Soroka in
(20:20):
his return or are you fading the Snakes.
Speaker 1 (20:24):
No fading the Snakes to night, and fading Soroka's return.
He only got through fifty five pitches or so in
his final rehab outing. It seemed like they were gonna
send him down or keep him down for one more
rehab start. They're bringing him up. Velocity was also down
in that start as well. Now he had a glut injury.
He didn't have an arm injury, so there is less
concern coming back from that, but seeing the velocity down,
(20:46):
seeing that he's probably not gonna throw more than eighty
or so pitches tonight, knowing if he has one long inning,
like a thirty pitch inning, they're gonna have a pretty
quick cookop with him. So I like Gabriel Hughes. He's
pitched really well thus far for the Rockies. Doesn't have
great stuff, just an eighty eight stuff plus rating, but
what he has had is the ability to miss bats
even with that bad stuff, and he's had excellent control.
(21:08):
I think he has a one oh four location plus
rating and he's had great underlying indicators thus far. Hopefully
he can keep it going tonight. I don't think he's
anything better than a league average pitcher. Going forward. And
I also have not downgraded Michael Soroka again, even coming
off of that il stint. I bet on Soroka, maybe
as much as I bet on any pitcher, especially through
(21:29):
the first three months or so of the year when
he was pitching. It seemed like I was betting on
Soroka every single start, either first five or full game.
But we're against him today. Slide's just too high. I
make the Rockies about plus one thirty five for the
first five innings. I was able to get them in
a believe plus one sixty seven, and I would take
them down to about plus one forty five. This number
(21:52):
jumped up. It was plus one fifty this morning at
the best book. Most of the market was around plus
one forty. Jumped down to plus one forty. I looked again,
it got as high as plus one sixty, and I said,
that's my purchase point. So no exposure to the Rockies bullpen,
which ranks as the number thirty bullpen in my rankings.
Also have a couple of guys down today, but we
will take Colorado for the first five here down two
(22:15):
plus one forty five, and that is my final of
four first five place today as I said, we have
one total left, but targeting first five innings. We're gonna
target a little bit more first five, a little bit
more team totals I have had. If you've tailed my
bets this year, you know how it's gone. We've had
fifty nine blown saves with unders or money lines in
(22:36):
the eighth or ninth inning. Fifty nine blown saves. We've
gotten twenty eight back, so we've got twice as many
blown saves against this four, which has cost us I believe,
twenty units in game in terms of the late in variance.
We've also underrun CoV by fourteen units, so I'm down
I believe twelve and a half units on the year.
We're underrunning our CoV expectation relative to historical closed by
(23:00):
about that much, and then another minus twenty of in
game very and sick of losing on these bullpens. So
we're going to target a little bit more first five
here down the stretch, and then team totals as well.
Now that I'm dividing out team totals on the bar
total tool, you can see there's a tab so you
can check out my edges on team totals. That way,
you know, a game like last night. For instance, I
(23:21):
was really torn on the Dodters over Daughters over nine
yesterday had popped up as an edge, but the side
of it that I really liked was the d Backs
over three and a half, and if you had looked
at the tool. I didn't end up putting it in
the app, it was too late to get to the
price before it moved, but if you had looked at
the bar Totle tool you would have seen an edge
highlightd on Dbacks over three and a half. I believe
it was about minus one twenty when it opened yesterday,
(23:43):
close closer to minus one forty. So another alternative option
in terms of betting these games full game money line,
first five obviously money lines and totals, but I added
a team total feature to the tool as well that
is calibrated to historical performance the game totals, my projections, etc.
So the edges on those should be pretty tight, and
you'll see a couple pop up each day, but just
(24:04):
worth looking at those if there's a side of a
game that you like. Oftentimes there will be a correlation
with the team total, as I mentioned with fading the
padres or betting on the Mets today, so just take
a look at those as well, because as the market
gets sharper. Right, we're all the way into August now,
and market's pretty sharp. There's not that many edges popping
up on a day to day basis, so you just
have to look for more alternative ways to bet on
(24:25):
these games, and I think team totals are a good
route to do.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
So.
Speaker 3 (24:28):
It does kind of feel like an old school Shanzrilla
day today betting on the twenty six games under five
hundred Rockies and the twenty one games under five hundred
Rails as big underdogs. So looking forward to it. It's
a fun day. Gabriel Hughes, I know, has been a
popular target of our colleague Derek Cardi in the prop market,
usually the outs market with him talented arm, doesn't have
(24:50):
a lot of length, usually throws seventy some mid seventies
in this pitch count at least right now. But we
like the Rockies. And then you mentioned one total on
your card. This is a very this is a very
mean matchup right here. These are like my two. These
guys are my two starting pitchers. I love the the
lefties with really good stuff and shaky command where I'm like,
you're good, but why aren't you better? You should be
(25:12):
a cy young contender Rangers, Angels. Two of my guys,
two trade candidates who stayed put at the deadline. Mackenzie
Gore read debt meers, I hope because these are my
guys that you're betting on pitching today with this total
and going with an under and not an over.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
Yeah, under eight and a half down to eight at
minus one oh five. I believe this has moved directionally
from eight and a half to eight again in terms
of COLV this year. As I said, like, we are
consistently beating lines, consistently generating value, which is for whatever reason,
has not come together this year. I do think the
changing baseballs, the ever changing baseballs, are a big part
of it. I posted on Twitter last week, I think
(25:50):
MLB changed the ball again after the All Star break.
The ball is being hit or it's coming off the
bat about two miles an hour slower than it was
in April, as temperatures have increased into August. If anything,
the ball should be coming off of the bat hotter
and carrying further. It is carrying less and coming off
of the bat softer. That is a difference in core
(26:12):
as opposed to a difference in drag. What we talked
about earlier this year was a difference in a decrease
in drag, meaning when the ball was hit at the
same exit velocity, it would just fly further just because
the ball physics were different. Now we've seen since the
All Star break balls are leaving the bat softer, which
means that it's likely that they changed the baseball almost
(26:32):
extremely likely. It's very hard for that to happen. Otherwise, unless,
like the offensive quality around the league took a complete
nose dive, you know, in the recent weeks. It seems
very unlikely. But concerning this game, and concerning totals in general,
do you like to see the directional move? It has
not guaranteed anything unfortunately this year. Typically on a year
to year basis, when you get a half run move
(26:53):
in your direction, it's worth about a three percent expectation
in terms of rois. So going to keep generating these
half moves hopefully they start working out a little bit
better for us. But as you said, you know, these
are two volatile pitchers, two guys who could keep this game,
you know, one nothing or one of them could blow up,
or both of them could blow up. I'm not really
going to be surprised. But in terms of the average
(27:13):
projection where I put these guys, I have them as
both top fifty starters. I have them right around one another.
I do rate Detmers slightly better than Gore. Detmers is
also at home tonight, Gores on the road or has
slightly lesser road numbers than he does home numbers. You
want to talk about changes in the ball and changes
in parks. You know, I've theorized that Global Life Park
(27:36):
may have turned off their humidor at some point this year.
There is data to suggest that, because it went from
the best pitchers park in baseball to now a league
average park once again, if not hit or favoring. So
detecting what to do with guys who are on the
rangers offensively and their pitchers, you know, their home road
stuff is going to be all over the place this
year because they've basically pitched in two different parks at
(27:58):
home this year and played in two different parks home
this year. But ultimately, in terms of this game projection,
even though I don't love these bullpens, I still make
this total about seven point six the under eight down
two minus one oh five would be the bet here.
And hopefully these guys can whip it around tonight. These
lefties detmer slider, the main pitch, gore, the change up
(28:18):
the main pitch. Those are the two weapons to watch
out for. If those are working, we should have success.
Speaker 3 (28:23):
I feel like we'll probably get some dueling perfect games
into the ninth inning because these are my guys.
Speaker 1 (28:29):
And we got four runs for each game in extra
innings and it goes.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
Over christ Oh all right.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
Even though even that Red Sox under yesterday, you know,
because I bet the Red Sox under four straight days.
The Red Sox offense has been unbelievable of late. On Saturday,
I had under nine and a half, I believe, and
there was like a garbage run scored, maybe under ten
and a half. There was a garbage run score with
two outs and two strikes at the ninth inning. It's
been that over and over and over again, which has
been really frustrating. Fired on the under again yesterday. It
(28:57):
moved a whole run down in my direction, a full
run down, and then it got to four to three
in the ninth inning and the Red Sox were about
to score to tie it and send it to extras,
and I'm like, here we go. You know, it's a
three to two game in the eighth, Yeah, three, and
the ninth you get to four to four and then
you go on to extras. And the chance to get
to five five when you have an under ten and
a half is like a nightmare. Fuel. So it has
not been easy. Even the wins have been pulling teeth.
(29:18):
But I do continue to see positive movement in terms
of our directional correctness, and that is all I can
do in terms of handicapping these games from a pregame perspective.
If I had given you, you know, then my closing number,
if I'd offered you the number I bet it at
right before game time starts, of course you would take it.
So yeah, you have to understand that getting on the
best number is the best that I can do in
(29:40):
terms of finding value on these games. And historically that
directional correctness does prove out in terms of RORI but
just for whatever reason, has been a struggle this year.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
Yeah, long time listeners of the show, followers of the
action app know that that variance will come back in
your direction eventually, and if you're not a long time
follower you will find now because I have no doubt
we've been doing this long enough.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
Yeah, it's all hopefully it'll all come in September and
then the playoffs, and we just end a year in
an extreme high note. But even you know, it's even
the Mariners right the way the Mariners have face planted
this year. The Tigers have face planted this year, like
teams we liked from a futures perspective are just wildly
underperforming expectations. It's it's been a frustrating year all around,
a very difficult year to handicap. Your White Sox overachieving
(30:24):
I'm sure has brought you a lot of joy, but
also like there's nothing in the projections to say that
the White Sox should have done this. They've just seen
like a player development bump across the board, which is
a big credit to the organization. But a lot of
times it is difficult to handicap these things. The Birds
overachieved projections every year. You know, I projected that to
happen this year, but not even to this degree. So
(30:44):
baseball is a tough sport. Man. Vladd has a ninety
debre arc plus this year. The entire Blue Jays roster
went from saying the average hitters and making the World Series.
I think they're the first team in the stat tracking era,
the first offense in quite a long time to not
have it qualified that is above league average, Like this
is It's a wild sport and the differences in production
(31:06):
and swing mechanics are so minischool. Right, cal Rally went
from being Babe Ruth for a year to now hitting
one fifty. It's just it's a tough sport and the
variance is so high and the differences are so mini
school and success versus failures. So yeah, we we just
continue to see baseball reflect life in terms of being unpredictable.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
Vladimir Gero Junior and Fernando Tetis Junior have combined for
the same amount of home runs as brooks Lee has
hit this year.
Speaker 1 (31:34):
He's finally it though. Tatis changes stance. He's up to eleven,
so Mike Petriello, he had like closed the stance and
now he opened it back up or vice versa. So
Tatis is finally hitting. I don't know what is wrong
with Flad.
Speaker 3 (31:46):
I know that he sunk my fantasy team this year.
That's all I know, all right, Well, those are five
bets for this ten game Monday slate. Four first five
bets and then a total Rangers Angels. It's gonna do it.
For today's episode of Payoff Pitch. Thanks so much for
tuning in. If you'd like to tail some of those
(32:06):
bets from today's episode, look for the quick slip links
in the episode description. Don't forget to download the free
award winning Action Network app, and if you sign up
for pro you will be getting those instant alerts every
time Sean Zerillo logs a bet in the app. Also,
please leave us a five star rating and review wherever
you listen to the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube,
(32:27):
throw us alike give us a comment. All that jazz
very very much appreciated. We will be back tomorrow with
another episode of Payoff Pitch. Grant never will be here
giving out some bets for Dinger Tuesday. For Shan Zarello.
I'm Colin Richard. Thanks so much for listening to Payoff
Pitch Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting podcast.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Good luck with all your bets.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
Look at his crowd on his free what trigg it No,
what wants to leave h
Fall, no crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
In the line up, it is Springs offering Josh the
bit outside.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos who
will be a home run.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And look to time you're talking about a roll at
the dice.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch, Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Monday, August tenth. I'm Colin Richard, joined as
usual by Action Network senior MLB analyst Sean Zarrillo to
break down this Monday MLB slate, not a full slate
as it usually is on Monday. We've got what three, six, nine,
(00:58):
ten games all under the light tonight, some decent pitching matchup,
some decent favorites and underdogs. Uh, it's going to be
a short one today, a small card for you today, Sean.
We're not going to go with the eighty sixty forty.
We're just going to give out your four or five
favorite bets on the show and uh call it a day.
(01:19):
So let's jump right into it with our best bets.
In your first one, we're going to go to Brewers
Padres in San Diego Tonight, Casey Mai is making his
second start for the Padres since coming over. In the
trade deadline, Logan Henderson making a case for Milwaukee's playoff rotation.
(01:39):
Where are you going with this one today?
Speaker 1 (01:41):
Yeah, Brewers first five money line. I like it up
to you about minus one thirty five. I make it
closer to minus one forty five. Project Henderson substantially better
than Casey mis I have myes pushing closer to a
leg gabage starter now Henderson ranking closer to the number ones. There's,
i'd say, of all the pitchers right now, the big
different or the biggest disagreement between like their projections right
(02:03):
the public projections Oopsie vat ATC Steamer. The biggest disagreement
between a starting pitcher's public projections and their underlying indicators
might be Logan Henderson. If it's not Henderson, it's probably Miserowski.
Because Miserowski's expected FIP and SIERRA have gone under two.
Henderson's are sitting in the low twos. He's at or
(02:26):
mid twos. He's at two point six for his expected
era on the year, expected FIP around two seven, but
all of his projections are still a run higher. His
average projection is four point one. I think he's much
better than that. I think he's proven that he's much
better than that. And if you look at his trend
line as compart to Casey Mis's trend line, they're moving
in opposite directions. Henderson came back from injury strike at
(02:48):
minus walk over thirty percent walk or his rate of
balls going down, his rate of cald strikes and whiffs
going up. It's the exact opposite for Casey myis and
I think the Tigers might have traded him at the
right time. There's some red flag injury concerns in the
Casey Mies profile. Strike up minus walk is dipped below
major league average just nine percent in his past five starts.
(03:09):
Granted to get shelt in his last start, and you
can write that one off a little bit. But if
the ball percentage wasn't going up, if his fastball spin
was it also dropping, I would be willing to write
it off. It just seems like Casey Mayes is losing
effectiveness as the season goes along. Here a guy's dealt
with injury, and Jo's injury issues in the past never
really managed to get through full seasons. Might be fatiguing
(03:32):
here in the second half. So not only do I
project a starting pitching edge for the Brewers, also prefer
their lineup. They project better about three points better in
terms of WRC plus against righty's, but also they have
more power. The Podres have more contact, which could be
an issue for Henderson because Henderson throws a lot of
balls in the middle of the zone and gets dudes
to swing through them. We'll see if the Padres could
(03:52):
follow those pitches off. But the Brewers have the better
power and the better plate discipline of the pair, and
also they're the better defensive and running team. So throughout
the first five innings, I give you Brewers the advantage
everywhere bullpen tilts towards the Podreys later in the game,
especially because it looks like the Brewers may be down
several key arms today. Avenuer Uribe I believe is tired.
(04:15):
Ashby is tired, so that's why I stayed away from
the full game line. I still show a slight edge
on the Brewers over the full game, but it definitely
a much bigger edge of the first five. So Brewers
first five up to minus one thirty five. The alternative
angle here it's correlated, but it's the alternative angle. Podrais
team total under three and a half. It was minus
one ten last night, it's minus one eighteen. Now I
(04:36):
probably only like it up to about minus one twenty,
but that would be the alternative vet if you can't
get the first five numbers, just the first five numbers
the same Brice essentially on. I think it's you know
again with the bolt been stuff for the Brewers. It's
a bigger edge anyway. So the first the team total,
and the money line sort of correlate to one another,
but the first five is the biggest edge of the three.
(04:57):
That would be the alternative approach. PO was taking one.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
Padres hanging around this playoff race, I know they've been
a fade candidate, I believe early in the season in
terms of playoff markets, it seems.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
Like it's never the Diamondbacks for that final spot there. Yeah,
they had a pretty competitive series last week, so I
would expect it to come down to one of those
two teams.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
Yeah, Diamondbacks Phillies currently tied for wild card spots two
and three. Marlin's Cardinals also lurking there, but probably probably
going to be Padres or Diamondbacks parting slip back a
little bit?
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Right?
Speaker 3 (05:34):
What's that?
Speaker 1 (05:34):
The Pirates are starting to slip back a little bit?
Speaker 3 (05:36):
Yeah, they're I mean they've they're on a really five
and a half. They're behind Washington and the Cardinals.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Well, the Reds completely collapsed there.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
Yeah, bummer about the Pirates. I want to see them.
You know they got those bullpen reinforcements. We'll see. Still
a long way to go. Goodn't important to remember it
is August tenth, and what was it like August twenty
eighth last year or something like that, the Guardians worth
thirteen and a half back of the Tigers.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
Yep, So a lot.
Speaker 3 (06:04):
Can happen still, even as as it gets late here.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Yeah, every year we see one surprising team make run late,
one team who's in a good spot collapses late. So
something's gonna happen. We just don't know where it does. Yep, yep.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
All right, next bet, we are going to the Mets
and Braves in Atlanta tonight, Christian Scott against Bryce Elder
and you're looking at another first five here.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Yeah, a bunch of first five bets today. I actually
added one late as well, so we have five bets
today for them or in the first five innings, and
then we have one full game total. Christian Scott projects
as a top forty starting pitcher for me. I have
Bryce elder at one fifty two, so more than a
full run in not more than a full run, about
a full run in terms of projected fit between these
(06:48):
two starting pitchers, again, very similar stories. I just kind
of discussed with Casey miz. You know, Christian Scott maintaining
a strikeout minus walk about twenty four percent. Elders has
fallen below le gaverage. He's sitting around eight percent in
his recent sample. His velocity is dipped, fastball spin is
about the same, but the ball rate is going up,
so he's just not being nearly as efficient in terms
(07:10):
of his pitch. Mis ball rate's been over forty percent
twice in his past three starts. It's very concerning. Christian
Scott since he came back for the Mets, has looked
hyper efficient, arguably been their best starter aside from Nolan McLain.
Old McClain's been taking off in the second half. But
with those two guys going forward, it seems like they
have a pretty nice core atop their rotation. And then again,
(07:31):
you know, not just the projections, or I should say,
you know, projections push these guys closer together. The underlying
indicators say that they're further apart. So another place where
I sort of disagree with the projections. The deeper we
get into a season, you know, as we have more
underlying data for these guys, I'm more willing to trust it.
The Braves have the better offense here, they have the
(07:51):
better bullpen. Again why I'm staying away from the full
game edge, But in terms of the first five I
actually make the Mets a slight favorite. I have them
at about minus one oh seven. Was able to get
plus one seventeen this morning. I would take that down
to even money, and then again, like the last game
I discussed, the alternative here would be a team total approach.
These are the only two team totals that currently show
an edge right now. Actually there's a third, but I'd
(08:13):
rather avoid that one. But the Padres, as I said,
under three and a half minus one eighteen, the Mets
over three and a half minus one eighteen, same number,
bigger edge. I like that up to about minus one
twenty five, and the Mets, as I said, the first
five money line is plus one seventeen down to even money.
That's where i'd take that number. But I actually like
(08:33):
the the team total. Here is why I may end
up adding that, because the Braves may have some guys
who are down today as well, and Olds pitched well.
I guess you would say based on the game logs
lately two runs, one run, one run past three starts,
but you look at the strikeouts and walks like pretty
much even, it's just he's not as efficient and he's
going to get hit at some point, hopefully that is today.
(08:55):
But we'll take some first five money line and consider
adding the team total once the Mets lineup drops. Mets.
Mets have been hitting, you know, Semion finally hitting over
the past couple of weeks, Jorge Polanco, who at one
point had a lower slash line than lou gerrig suffering
from als that was pretty devastating for Horey Polanco's now
this season, he's now finally hitting. Francisco Alvarez has been
(09:17):
on a tear of late my dude, so it seems
like this is the best the Mets offense has performed
this year without Juan Soto in the lineup, so hopefully
they can keep it going tonight and get Christian Scott's
some early runs.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
Polanco and Semion specifically getting hot after the Mets fall
out of contention would be just it's just like a
knife in the back. Basically, it's like, yeah, I.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Think Lou Bob Homer yesterday as well, like they're all
they're all going now.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
So yeah, interesting little playoff subplot these last two months too,
is the Braves are actually ahead of the Dodgers right
now for that second National League payoff seed, and of
course that's the the other by uh in the first round.
So that's a that's a big deal and something to
keep an eye on.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
Yeah, Dodgers didn't get the buy last year and then
we got a last year card round to win the
World Ares.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
Speaking of the Dodgers, they are at home against the
Royals tonight. Trek Skubele making his second Dodger start against
Noah Cameron. He's looking at this right before we recorded
biggest favorites of the year Dodgers. As of this recording consensus,
Odge they're minus three to twenty five on the money line.
(10:23):
That would be if it closes there, the seventh biggest
favorite of this season. Of the other six, four of
those are also Dodgers games. Not surprisingly, we have a
Dodgers Rockies, a Dodgers Giants, a Dodger's Angels, and another
Dodger's Rockies on there, and then we have a Brewer's
Rockies in a Phillies Nationals. The only favorite that lost
(10:47):
of those other six were the Dodgers against the Giants
back in early May. They lost six to two. As
minus three forty four favorites. Today again Scooble against Cameron.
The Dodgers are minus three twenty five Royals plus two
sixty on the underdogs, and you do have a You're
(11:08):
not it doesn't look like you're going full game Royals here,
but you do have an angle where you like the
underdogs just based on the price.
Speaker 1 (11:15):
I'm guessing yeah, I show an edge for the full
game as well, but a bigger edge for the first
five innings. So attacking Scoobols specifically in the first five
seems like an awkward approach. Not getting the bullpens involved.
I hate this Royals bullpen. I would much rather have
just no camera involved over the first five innings and
more importantly, guaranteed having a lefty in there for at
least the first four or four and a half innings
(11:37):
against the Dodgers offense, which, as I pointed out, number
one a baseball against right end and pitching one thirteen
worc plus even with their recent funk. But they are
six against lefties and they drop to a one oh
six and again shut down by Edward or Rodriguez yesterday.
They just struggle a little bit more with lefties. Once
you're able to neutralize Otani and Freeman and Munsey at
the top of that lineup, everything else kind of falls
(11:59):
into play, gets a little bit easier. Mookie Betts has
had a significant down year. Still know Will Smith in
the middle of that lineup, which you know against the
left handed starter is a big difference. So having a
catcher in your nine to hole that can't really hit
is a big difference for this daughter's lineup. They don't
go nine deep like they normally do, even having against
the left thee having Miguel Rojas in the eight spot
(12:21):
like it is a little bit of a sigh of relief,
you know, when you get to the bottom of that
daughter's lineup compared to what it normally looks like. And
right now Noah Cameron has been going well. He's been
a very streaky pitcher in his brief major league sample
year and a half major league sample that we've had
of him, But his past three starts seven innings, eight innings,
eight innings, strikeouts and walks on the increase. For Tark Schooble,
(12:44):
we haven't discussed it a lot this year, but his
fastball spin rate has been dipping continuously. I think this
guy is just hoping he can get to the off
season healthy and get his contract that if he's going
to break again, hopefully it happens next year, because there's
definitely not only did he have the il stint, but
there's signs of injury in his profile in the fastball,
the declining called strike close wolf rate at points throughout
(13:07):
the year. I haven't downgraded him whatsoever. I still project
him as my SP two. I still have him at
a two point seven weighted fit projection, which is right
around his era in the year two point eight. But
over the first five innings, I make the Royals about
plus two hundred. I would take their first five money
line two plus two thirty. But what I really like here,
which you don't get often, is the first five spread
(13:30):
at plus one and a half, not plus the half
plus one and a half. You could still lose the
first five innings money line and cash this ticket. I
would take that up to about minus one forty. I
make it closer to minus one fifty. For the plus
one and a half, I make it about plus one
plus blanking on it. My price target for the plus
(13:53):
half is plus one forty. If you want to play
the first five money line, take it to plus two thirty.
But I really like that plus one and a half
for the first five innings. Hopefully Royle's just keep it
within a run. Hopefully they're able to get a run
off of Schooble and eliminate some of the sweat. But
taking a shot year yes, as you said, against the
second biggest favorite on the year, but in the first
(14:14):
five innings specifically on the spread. You can mess around
with the money line or the half a run, but
I really like getting that plus one and a half.
It just does not pop up often and you only
really get it when you have a favorite north of
minus three hundred. So Royals plus one and a half
to minus one forty my bet in that game. There
is value on the full game money line. There's value
on the first five money line if you want to
mess around with it, and with the way the Dodters
(14:34):
are playing right now, maybe it's worth a shot. I
believe they've lost eight of nine or nine of ten
at this point. But yeah, that's a number that you
just don't see often and how to grab it.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
Yeah, I mean, we've been doing this together for a
long time, and I, off the top of my head,
can't recall an instance of you betting a run line.
I'm sure you'd have done it from time to times
over the years, but it's rare enough that I can't
recall it an instance off the top of my head.
So that's just a good example of how how much
of this value's popping in terms of Royal's money line.
(15:05):
You know, I pulled up the Bartolo tool when I
woke up this morning and I saw the edges, and
this is if you're betting Royal's money line, it is
prime candidate for your bonus bets.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
If you've got bonus, you know it's going to be uh,
you know it's going to be a fade the public
type of spot today.
Speaker 3 (15:19):
Yes, I went in there and I had a bonus
bet at one of the books, and I went in
there and just threw it on Royal's money line. I'm like,
why not? This is it's a great those like plus
two hundred to plus three hundred range bets are a
great spot for it. So we will root against Trek
Scubel once again today. You talk about I mean his
injury history. Everyone knows, I mean his his big injury
(15:41):
this year that people thought was going to end up
being a lot serious than it was. The short memories
that folks have, you know, back to back Cy Young's
before twenty twenty four, Scooble was known as a talented
pitcher who couldn't stay healthy. Like, yeah, he had Tommy
Johns in his past. His career high in innings before
(16:01):
twenty twenty four was one hundred and forty nine innings.
He had thrown only eighty innings the year before his
first Cy Young like that dude had arm trouble. So
you know, he seems unhittable at times. But like, it's
a very volatile profession starting pitching in Major League Baseball,
and it could go south in a hurry. Obviously, we
don't root for that at all.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
He's added a lot of weight to his frame as well.
Over time. I think it's helped, you know, make him
more durable. But the same time, he's throwing as hard
as ever. He is like very bulky in his upper half.
I do wonder about his durability long term. You know,
c C. Sabathia had a lot of weight on him,
was able to pitch forever through a ton of innings.
So maybe it's not a big deal. But Cec also
(16:44):
never had that prior injury history. Cee Cee was a
horse throughout his career, school's had the injury history. Now
he has that added weight on his frame. I do
worry about him breaking down. And I think if the
Dodgers signed him and he breaks down, and then they
have that contract and Kyle Tucker's contract on books together,
It's not like they really care from their perspective, but
that Kyle Tucker contract is already looking pretty bad, and
(17:05):
I don't know how many more of those they can
afford to take on.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Yeah, I mean, it doesn't last forever. A whole other
side conversation we don't need to get into, but like,
it doesn't last forever, Like these guys get old, Otani
will get old, you know, bets, we're already seeing Freeman's
getting old. Like it seems just people who are old
enough to remember the late nineties, early two thousands Yankees.
(17:29):
You just felt like they were going to win the
World Series or be right there every single year forever.
It seemed like it was never going to end. But
guess what it ended. People have very short memories with
these things. The Dodgers are World Series favorites this year.
They're probably going to be World Series favorites next year.
Will they win it? Who knows, But all good things
(17:51):
come to an end.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
It worth noting too. You know, I don't know if
you saw the data. You know, Sayah's put out, but
the Dodgers have seen the biggest increase in four seat
fastball rate against them. It's almost like the league decided, Hey,
this is a team full of old dudes. Why are
we throwing them spin when we could just throw it
hard and see if they could catch up with it.
So there's been a change in pitching approach against the
(18:15):
Daughters of late, which coincides with this cold streak. So
we'll see if they adjust back now that the league
is adjusted to them. But yeah, I think it's it's
an interesting strategy of this team's. You know, average age
of this lineup is like thirty three years old. Why
not throw the ball harder and see if they get
hit it.
Speaker 3 (18:29):
It is the oldest roster in the majors by average age,
no surprises there. The only young guy who gets regular
run in their lineup iss Andy pat Has, who's great obviously.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Great work if you can get it too, like to
be a Tyler Glass now or like a Blake Snow
where like they're signing you for twenty million dollars a
year just for October. Like their expectation is like, hey,
pitch fifty innings and be healthy for the playoffs, you
know if you need to, Like you're just kind of
on vacation there to take making twenty five million dollars
a year rehaving constantly living in LA and then when
(19:02):
the playoffs roll around, you're just guaranteed a playoff spot
if you're one of the four best pictures. So it's
quite the organization they've built there where they have these
twenty million dollars pittures if they don't even need until
the playoffs start.
Speaker 3 (19:13):
Yep, all right, we will move from the Dodgers naturally
to the other team you think about when you think
of world class organizations, the Colorado Rockies. They are in
Arizona tonight, divisional matchup Diamondbacks in a playoff spot right now,
tied for that wild card two to three in the
National League with the Phillies. I think that's probably the
(19:34):
most surprising. I mean not based on not based on
preseason priors, because I would obviously be like the White Sox,
but like just based on the trajectory of this team,
Like the Diamondbacks just keep hanging on. They didn't do
much at the deadline. They added Lars Nootbar and nothing else.
They're surviving with a rotation of it. Eduardo Rodriguez getting
(19:57):
by with smoking mirrors, throwing a thirty eight eight year
old Merril, Kelly, Brandon Fott, Mitch Bratt like, I don't
know how they're doing it, but they will get some
reinforcements tonight. Returning Mike Soroka hasn't pitched since mid June.
He is back. Gabriel Hughes on the mound on the
other side for the Rockies. Are you buying Soroka in
(20:20):
his return or are you fading the Snakes.
Speaker 1 (20:24):
No fading the Snakes to night, and fading Soroka's return.
He only got through fifty five pitches or so in
his final rehab outing. It seemed like they were gonna
send him down or keep him down for one more
rehab start. They're bringing him up. Velocity was also down
in that start as well. Now he had a glut injury.
He didn't have an arm injury, so there is less
concern coming back from that, but seeing the velocity down,
(20:46):
seeing that he's probably not gonna throw more than eighty
or so pitches tonight, knowing if he has one long inning,
like a thirty pitch inning, they're gonna have a pretty
quick cookop with him. So I like Gabriel Hughes. He's
pitched really well thus far for the Rockies. Doesn't have
great stuff, just an eighty eight stuff plus rating, but
what he has had is the ability to miss bats
even with that bad stuff, and he's had excellent control.
(21:08):
I think he has a one oh four location plus
rating and he's had great underlying indicators thus far. Hopefully
he can keep it going tonight. I don't think he's
anything better than a league average pitcher. Going forward. And
I also have not downgraded Michael Soroka again, even coming
off of that il stint. I bet on Soroka, maybe
as much as I bet on any pitcher, especially through
(21:29):
the first three months or so of the year when
he was pitching. It seemed like I was betting on
Soroka every single start, either first five or full game.
But we're against him today. Slide's just too high. I
make the Rockies about plus one thirty five for the
first five innings. I was able to get them in
a believe plus one sixty seven, and I would take
them down to about plus one forty five. This number
(21:52):
jumped up. It was plus one fifty this morning at
the best book. Most of the market was around plus
one forty. Jumped down to plus one forty. I looked again,
it got as high as plus one sixty, and I said,
that's my purchase point. So no exposure to the Rockies bullpen,
which ranks as the number thirty bullpen in my rankings.
Also have a couple of guys down today, but we
will take Colorado for the first five here down two
(22:15):
plus one forty five, and that is my final of
four first five place today as I said, we have
one total left, but targeting first five innings. We're gonna
target a little bit more first five, a little bit
more team totals I have had. If you've tailed my
bets this year, you know how it's gone. We've had
fifty nine blown saves with unders or money lines in
(22:36):
the eighth or ninth inning. Fifty nine blown saves. We've
gotten twenty eight back, so we've got twice as many
blown saves against this four, which has cost us I believe,
twenty units in game in terms of the late in variance.
We've also underrun CoV by fourteen units, so I'm down
I believe twelve and a half units on the year.
We're underrunning our CoV expectation relative to historical closed by
(23:00):
about that much, and then another minus twenty of in
game very and sick of losing on these bullpens. So
we're going to target a little bit more first five
here down the stretch, and then team totals as well.
Now that I'm dividing out team totals on the bar
total tool, you can see there's a tab so you
can check out my edges on team totals. That way,
you know, a game like last night. For instance, I
(23:21):
was really torn on the Dodters over Daughters over nine
yesterday had popped up as an edge, but the side
of it that I really liked was the d Backs
over three and a half, and if you had looked
at the tool. I didn't end up putting it in
the app, it was too late to get to the
price before it moved, but if you had looked at
the bar Totle tool you would have seen an edge
highlightd on Dbacks over three and a half. I believe
it was about minus one twenty when it opened yesterday,
(23:43):
close closer to minus one forty. So another alternative option
in terms of betting these games full game money line,
first five obviously money lines and totals, but I added
a team total feature to the tool as well that
is calibrated to historical performance the game totals, my projections, etc.
So the edges on those should be pretty tight, and
you'll see a couple pop up each day, but just
(24:04):
worth looking at those if there's a side of a
game that you like. Oftentimes there will be a correlation
with the team total, as I mentioned with fading the
padres or betting on the Mets today, so just take
a look at those as well, because as the market
gets sharper. Right, we're all the way into August now,
and market's pretty sharp. There's not that many edges popping
up on a day to day basis, so you just
have to look for more alternative ways to bet on
(24:25):
these games, and I think team totals are a good
route to do.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
So.
Speaker 3 (24:28):
It does kind of feel like an old school Shanzrilla
day today betting on the twenty six games under five
hundred Rockies and the twenty one games under five hundred
Rails as big underdogs. So looking forward to it. It's
a fun day. Gabriel Hughes, I know, has been a
popular target of our colleague Derek Cardi in the prop market,
usually the outs market with him talented arm, doesn't have
(24:50):
a lot of length, usually throws seventy some mid seventies
in this pitch count at least right now. But we
like the Rockies. And then you mentioned one total on
your card. This is a very this is a very
mean matchup right here. These are like my two. These
guys are my two starting pitchers. I love the the
lefties with really good stuff and shaky command where I'm like,
you're good, but why aren't you better? You should be
(25:12):
a cy young contender Rangers, Angels. Two of my guys,
two trade candidates who stayed put at the deadline. Mackenzie
Gore read debt meers, I hope because these are my
guys that you're betting on pitching today with this total
and going with an under and not an over.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
Yeah, under eight and a half down to eight at
minus one oh five. I believe this has moved directionally
from eight and a half to eight again in terms
of COLV this year. As I said, like, we are
consistently beating lines, consistently generating value, which is for whatever reason,
has not come together this year. I do think the
changing baseballs, the ever changing baseballs, are a big part
of it. I posted on Twitter last week, I think
(25:50):
MLB changed the ball again after the All Star break.
The ball is being hit or it's coming off the
bat about two miles an hour slower than it was
in April, as temperatures have increased into August. If anything,
the ball should be coming off of the bat hotter
and carrying further. It is carrying less and coming off
of the bat softer. That is a difference in core
(26:12):
as opposed to a difference in drag. What we talked
about earlier this year was a difference in a decrease
in drag, meaning when the ball was hit at the
same exit velocity, it would just fly further just because
the ball physics were different. Now we've seen since the
All Star break balls are leaving the bat softer, which
means that it's likely that they changed the baseball almost
(26:32):
extremely likely. It's very hard for that to happen. Otherwise, unless,
like the offensive quality around the league took a complete
nose dive, you know, in the recent weeks. It seems
very unlikely. But concerning this game, and concerning totals in general,
do you like to see the directional move? It has
not guaranteed anything unfortunately this year. Typically on a year
to year basis, when you get a half run move
(26:53):
in your direction, it's worth about a three percent expectation
in terms of rois. So going to keep generating these
half moves hopefully they start working out a little bit
better for us. But as you said, you know, these
are two volatile pitchers, two guys who could keep this game,
you know, one nothing or one of them could blow up,
or both of them could blow up. I'm not really
going to be surprised. But in terms of the average
(27:13):
projection where I put these guys, I have them as
both top fifty starters. I have them right around one another.
I do rate Detmers slightly better than Gore. Detmers is
also at home tonight, Gores on the road or has
slightly lesser road numbers than he does home numbers. You
want to talk about changes in the ball and changes
in parks. You know, I've theorized that Global Life Park
(27:36):
may have turned off their humidor at some point this year.
There is data to suggest that, because it went from
the best pitchers park in baseball to now a league
average park once again, if not hit or favoring. So
detecting what to do with guys who are on the
rangers offensively and their pitchers, you know, their home road
stuff is going to be all over the place this
year because they've basically pitched in two different parks at
(27:58):
home this year and played in two different parks home
this year. But ultimately, in terms of this game projection,
even though I don't love these bullpens, I still make
this total about seven point six the under eight down
two minus one oh five would be the bet here.
And hopefully these guys can whip it around tonight. These
lefties detmer slider, the main pitch, gore, the change up
(28:18):
the main pitch. Those are the two weapons to watch
out for. If those are working, we should have success.
Speaker 3 (28:23):
I feel like we'll probably get some dueling perfect games
into the ninth inning because these are my guys.
Speaker 1 (28:29):
And we got four runs for each game in extra
innings and it goes.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
Over christ Oh all right.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
Even though even that Red Sox under yesterday, you know,
because I bet the Red Sox under four straight days.
The Red Sox offense has been unbelievable of late. On Saturday,
I had under nine and a half, I believe, and
there was like a garbage run scored, maybe under ten
and a half. There was a garbage run score with
two outs and two strikes at the ninth inning. It's
been that over and over and over again, which has
been really frustrating. Fired on the under again yesterday. It
(28:57):
moved a whole run down in my direction, a full
run down, and then it got to four to three
in the ninth inning and the Red Sox were about
to score to tie it and send it to extras,
and I'm like, here we go. You know, it's a
three to two game in the eighth, Yeah, three, and
the ninth you get to four to four and then
you go on to extras. And the chance to get
to five five when you have an under ten and
a half is like a nightmare. Fuel. So it has
not been easy. Even the wins have been pulling teeth.
(29:18):
But I do continue to see positive movement in terms
of our directional correctness, and that is all I can
do in terms of handicapping these games from a pregame perspective.
If I had given you, you know, then my closing number,
if I'd offered you the number I bet it at
right before game time starts, of course you would take it.
So yeah, you have to understand that getting on the
best number is the best that I can do in
(29:40):
terms of finding value on these games. And historically that
directional correctness does prove out in terms of RORI but
just for whatever reason, has been a struggle this year.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
Yeah, long time listeners of the show, followers of the
action app know that that variance will come back in
your direction eventually, and if you're not a long time
follower you will find now because I have no doubt
we've been doing this long enough.
Speaker 1 (30:03):
Yeah, it's all hopefully it'll all come in September and
then the playoffs, and we just end a year in
an extreme high note. But even you know, it's even
the Mariners right the way the Mariners have face planted
this year. The Tigers have face planted this year, like
teams we liked from a futures perspective are just wildly
underperforming expectations. It's it's been a frustrating year all around,
a very difficult year to handicap. Your White Sox overachieving
(30:24):
I'm sure has brought you a lot of joy, but
also like there's nothing in the projections to say that
the White Sox should have done this. They've just seen
like a player development bump across the board, which is
a big credit to the organization. But a lot of
times it is difficult to handicap these things. The Birds
overachieved projections every year. You know, I projected that to
happen this year, but not even to this degree. So
(30:44):
baseball is a tough sport. Man. Vladd has a ninety
debre arc plus this year. The entire Blue Jays roster
went from saying the average hitters and making the World Series.
I think they're the first team in the stat tracking era,
the first offense in quite a long time to not
have it qualified that is above league average, Like this
is It's a wild sport and the differences in production
(31:06):
and swing mechanics are so minischool. Right, cal Rally went
from being Babe Ruth for a year to now hitting
one fifty. It's just it's a tough sport and the
variance is so high and the differences are so mini
school and success versus failures. So yeah, we we just
continue to see baseball reflect life in terms of being unpredictable.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
Vladimir Gero Junior and Fernando Tetis Junior have combined for
the same amount of home runs as brooks Lee has
hit this year.
Speaker 1 (31:34):
He's finally it though. Tatis changes stance. He's up to eleven,
so Mike Petriello, he had like closed the stance and
now he opened it back up or vice versa. So
Tatis is finally hitting. I don't know what is wrong
with Flad.
Speaker 3 (31:46):
I know that he sunk my fantasy team this year.
That's all I know, all right, Well, those are five
bets for this ten game Monday slate. Four first five
bets and then a total Rangers Angels. It's gonna do it.
For today's episode of Payoff Pitch. Thanks so much for
tuning in. If you'd like to tail some of those
(32:06):
bets from today's episode, look for the quick slip links
in the episode description. Don't forget to download the free
award winning Action Network app, and if you sign up
for pro you will be getting those instant alerts every
time Sean Zerillo logs a bet in the app. Also,
please leave us a five star rating and review wherever
you listen to the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube,
(32:27):
throw us alike give us a comment. All that jazz
very very much appreciated. We will be back tomorrow with
another episode of Payoff Pitch. Grant never will be here
giving out some bets for Dinger Tuesday. For Shan Zarello.
I'm Colin Richard. Thanks so much for listening to Payoff
Pitch Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting podcast.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Good luck with all your bets.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
Look at his crowd on his free what trigg it No,
what wants to leave h
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