June 29, 2026 • 27 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting expert Collin Whitchurch teams up with Sean Zerillo to break down the Monday's MLB slate. The crew dives into sides and totals out west today. Using the MLB 20–80 scouting scale, they grade their most confident plays and highlight where they’re finding the most value across the board. Tune in to hear their top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page so you don't miss our live shows every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
That flying a tight ball.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
No crying, and this game's underway.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Into the line up.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It is spring stop bringing Josh the bit outside. Here's
a drive in a deep bliftfield by Castiano, so it
will be a home run to right field. And look
to sum it up.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
You talk about a roll at the dice, this is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch. Welcome to Payoff Pitch, Action Networks
Major League Baseball Betting Podcast. It is Monday, June twenty ninth.
I'm Colin Wicharch, joined as usual by Action Network senior
MLB analyst Shamzrillo to break down this Monday slate. It's
a pretty busy slate for a Monday U no Day baseball,
(00:54):
but three six, nine, twelve, thirteen games on this Monday,
A couple teams off, but got a decent slate here,
decent slated games. We've got Bobaschetz returned to Toronto tonight
in Mets Blue Jays' first appearance there, obviously since hitting
a big home running Game seven of the World Series.
(01:18):
So yeah, let's jump right into it. We've got some
best bets here from Sean. A quick reminder though, before
we get started, that we are right after we get
off the air, here, Sean and I are going to
be recording a Futures update. We're about almost the exact
halfway point of the season. I think a lot of
teams are at exactly eighty one games at this point,
eighty eighty two games. So we're gonna record a second
(01:41):
episode here today, looking at World Series, Futures, penance divisions, MVP, SI,
Young Rookie of the Year, et cetera. So be sure
to keep an eye out for that on your podcast
feed as well. But all right, let's jump in to
this Monday slay. Sean, I just alluded to it. I
alluded to it before I even looked at what your
(02:01):
bets were for today. Mets Blue Jays in Toronto, Sean Manaya, Trey,
Yesvijy Savage. I always forget how to pronounce his name.
You have a take here on Mets Blue Jays. The Mets,
of course, I don't know if we've had an episode
since they fired Carlos Mendoza, traded David Peterson to the Cubs,
maybe signaling the start of some big changes in the
(02:24):
month of July for the Mets. But what do you
got here in Mets Blue Jays.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Yeah. I was actually live on the Pop with Derek
Carty on Friday right after the Carlos Mendoza firing, so
that was enjoyable to react to on the fly. I
don't have any additional thoughts. Really, Met's putting their player
development guy in charge. That has been the strength of
the organization thus far under David Stearns. The only strength
of the organization is the guys they brought up have
(02:51):
largely performed okay at the major league level, not all
of them. Tongue struggling a little bit, some of the
arms have struggled, but Carson Bench has looked great, especially
late so going in terms of the player development route,
the young guys they have up on the roster maybe
getting the voice that's been in their ears a little
bit more regularly around. In terms of Andy Green, former
Padres manager, I believe Andy Green, and we'll see whether
(03:15):
he's able to hold on to the interim title, whether
we have a whole new regime next year. But in
terms of today's matchup and how these teams look against
one another, particularly the offenses, I talked a lot a
lot with Derek on Friday. Now that Lindor and Sodo
are back. The Mets project is one of my best offenses.
And not only do they project as a good offense,
their power metrics from this year, the damage that they're
(03:37):
putting on the baseball. Their plate discipline metrics from this
year are great, and they make a lot of contact.
Along with that, A lot of the teams that I
rate really highly for power and plate discipline don't make
contact with the ball as regularly. They tend to have
higher strikeout rates. The Mets actually have a relatively low
strikeout rate compared to the power metrics and howard they're
(03:58):
swinging the bats and power certainly favors of the Mets offense.
The J's advantages in this game are contact and defense.
They're going to steal more hits for the Mets. In
terms of balls and play, the Mets these significantly worse
defensive team. But the Jays do not have power and
they do not have great play discipline either. Their swing decisions,
(04:18):
you know, they're fouling off a lot of pitches with
two strikes, and as a result of that philosophy, you're
just not swinging at the most optimal pitches. You're just
trying to stay alive and counts, put the ball in play, etc.
So big difference in terms of offensive philosophy here, Mets
trying to work walks, hit homers, the Jays trying to
avoid strikeouts and steal hits from their opponents. Prefer the
(04:39):
Mets offense again, I ranked them. I leave my second
best offense right now behind the Dodgers. And that's assuming
that Kyle Tucker is like back to his you know,
somewhat peak self, because Dodgers, with Kyle Tucker looking the
way he has has been pretty embarrassing of late. I
think they stuck him on a phantomilese than in the
middle of June. But Jay's pitching advantage here largely in
(05:00):
the bullpen. I actually projected an eye is slightly better
than I do you savage right now, you Savage. The
walks have gone up, strikeouts have dipped of late, strike
up minus walk right about three percent over his last
six starts. And going back to the arm injury, the
shoulder injury that he had in the preseason, I think
that's somewhat connected where this is a guy who looks
like he might be wearing down, you know, through a
(05:22):
ton of innings last year. Going all the way up
essentially from the draft through a ball to double A
all the way to the major leagues. Had the postseason
innings came back this year spring, had the arm issues
went on, the IL brought him back off of that,
and now the results have declined. So those are kind
of a trendy red flag for me in terms of
(05:42):
like the progression of the innings into the injury back
into the performance dip. That's never really a good sign
for me. So I made the Mets about I believe
minus won ten in this game, and I would bet
them to even money. I was able to get plus
one ten last night. So it looks like all the
CoV and all the lines have kind of moved in
concert with my bets for today. But that is how
(06:05):
I break down Mets and Jays, and you know, it's
it's a little bit difficult to bet on this Mets
team who looks like they already have nothing to play for.
We'll get into it in the futures episode. I actually
protect value in the Jays to miss the playoffs. I
make them about minus two fifty to miss the playoffs.
Currently can get about minus one nineties. So Colin and
I are gonna have a full special Bonus Futures episode
(06:27):
that we will have after the Monday Slate episode. But
just you know, one of the many nuggets I've dug
up in terms of looking around the league, that Jay's
a value bet to miss the playoffs at present, and
the chemistry, the vibes, they are completely off, Colin. I
don't know if you saw the clip of them down
the other day the game that I bet. I believe
they were down seven to nothing, seven to one. Alejandro
(06:47):
Kirk had a two run homework to bring to seven
to three, and Vlad tried to put the the swag
jacket on him as he get back to the dugout,
and Kirk just like shrugged him off, and then Vladi
gave him a look like that. So the vibes are
definitely often to run. I know, I'm not sure what's
going on in that clubhouse, but definitely some infighting and
lack of chemistry got on.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Yeah, interesting stuff. Out of Toronto. Vlad is struggling. Okamoto
actually had a great June. He started to turn things around.
But it's surprising. We can get into this more, but
they have an All Star finalist at every position you'd
think they'd be better, right, you know, you know we'll
joke about the Jays fan stuff in the ballot. You know,
(07:27):
Ernie Clement the leading vote getter for the All Star
You know, how could this team be so bad They've
got Ernie Clement. Anyway, let's move on to your next game.
You mentioned some lines on the move Reminder if you
have the Action app, if you're a pro subscriber, Sean
is often logging these bets overnight, late Sunday night into
(07:50):
early Monday morning. You get these best prices a lot
of times they move by the time we're talking about
them here on this show. Maybe this is an example
of one Sean can get into it. Marlin's Rockies incurs
tonight Sandy al Contra and Sean Sullivan.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
Yeah, you know, I thought, was Sandy al Contra going
to Coors. Maybe there's some sort of like Sandy has
been good at Coors because it keeps the ball on
the ground. It's not really the case. His career splits
it Cors. I think is he raised over six the
last already had there wasn't great. It seems like the
strikeouts don't come for him as easily. There the walks
tend to go up a little bit. So it seems
like Sandy is just as affected by cors Field as
(08:26):
every other pitcher. There's no exceptions. Because he keeps the
ball on the ground that you know, there's fewer hits
or whatever because the ball doesn't get to that giant outfield.
Just it affects him in a different way. It seems
like it affects his command as opposed to giving up
the harder hit balls. But obviously project a massive starting
pitching edge for him here over Sullivan and the Rockies
(08:48):
for today. But it's more so the lineup differential for
me for the Marlins over the Rockies. Rockies make a
lot of contact, but the swing decisions the power are
essentially non existent. The swing decisions a little bit better
than power. Minimal power on this team, really bad base
running team, below larverage defensive team as well. I made
the Marlins about minus one forty. They were minus one
(09:10):
twenty last night, open closer to minus one fifteen or
minus one ten. I said to bet them up to
minus one thirty. That is where it is this morning.
So I'm not gonna waste a ton of time on
this game. If you're able to get minus one thirty
or better on the Marlins, I would take it certainly
trending in the right direction. They rank among my best
teams for I ratings, so I think this team makes
really good swing decisions, and I think that's a big
(09:32):
reason why the Marlins are above five hundred right now.
Just making a lot better process oriented decisions at the plate,
and that's their biggest advantage in this game over the Rockies.
To give me the Marlins to minus one thirty.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Staying out west to Sacramento, We've got a Dodgers A's
match up there. Intriguing young pitcher Gauge jump on the
mound for the A's Eric Lauer for the Dodgers. What
do you get there?
Speaker 1 (10:01):
Yeah? I like Gaye jump a lot. If you've tailed me,
I bet on him. Think in all but one of
his starts thus far in the Bigs, he's been extremely effective.
One oh seven pitching plus rating one ten, stuff plus
sierra of three point six expected the array of three,
so he's been very effective. He's my SP thirty two
to this point of the season, fastball ninety six miles
(10:23):
an hour from the left hand side, so very effective
in terms of the velocity, effective curve and change up
as well also throwing a sweeper. None of the pitches
have been hit, everything sitting at like a two to
ten wOBA or below, the fastballs at a two eighty,
everything else at two twelve or below. So a very
varied and effective arsenal has shown really good command to
(10:45):
also seen him pitch out of trouble as well, so
seemingly no issues pitching out of the stretch versus the
wind up. Been really impressed by gage jump thus far,
Eric Lauer going to go for the Dodgers, obviously much
better results with the Dodgers than he had with the
Blue Jays. Straightout marks have not approved. You know, the
pitchmicks has not really changed. This still seems like a
guy who projects near a replacement level arm. He's just
(11:07):
gotten better luck, gotten better defense behind him with the Daughters.
But this is the guy who still ranks my SP
two O two, you know, right near the bottom of
my starting picture rankings. I think there's only like two
hundred and five guys on there. We do this occasionally
on the POT. I just like to see the updated
weekly look at who is the lowest man on the board. Well,
are still at number two O four. I'm sorry, Colin
(11:29):
Sean Sullivan at two oh three, four at two two,
I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Go ahead, sorry? Who was it?
Speaker 1 (11:35):
Two o four, Lucas Giolito unfortunately.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Oh okay, I was gonna say, do sures are still qualified?
Is he is?
Speaker 1 (11:41):
He's he's not. He's been removed from the list the list.
That was not my choice. It was just like, yeah,
this isn't happening anymore, so it removed him. I think
if there were two hundred and five names on the list,
sures or would still be two six right now. That's
how bad that was this year. So uh yeah, I'm
I'm really low oner. I have not upgraded him whatsoever
(12:02):
since he moved to the Dodgers. Again, no change of
pitch makes no change really in the underlying peripherals. I
made the A's favorites here. I make the is minus
one oh five against the Dodgers. They were plus one
to ten last night, and they've come down to a
round even money today, so not a ton of room left.
I would bet, I'm sorry, I make the A's closer
to minus one thirteen. I would bet them to minus
(12:22):
one oh five, and it has come down to a
run even money today, so still room to minus one
oh five. Not a ton of room yet, but directionally,
I'm sure. Seeing the market move against the Dodgers overnight,
you got to assume the A's or the right side
of this game. So give me the Athletics to minus
one oh five for night.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
All uh, all eighty grade bets from Sean today. I
didn't mention at the top of the show, this is
the eighty grade section. We're gonna we got three more
eighty grade bets here from Sean and we're gonna go
to Wrigley. You know, I'm here in Chicago and it
is a heat wave week here in Chicago. It is
the last week it's been like sixty seventies. I'm like,
(13:02):
what the hell is this June zipping right up today?
Nineties all week and at Wrigley today, we've got sixteen
mile an hour wind blowing out to left center. So
we have a total we have a course field total
at Wrigley today eleven twelve range, depending on where you're looking.
(13:25):
It's showeda Managa on the mound for the Cubs. I'm
not sure if the Pirates have announced. I'm sure the
Padres have announced a starting picture, Sean. You can get
into who you project for that maybe, but it's a
weather game at Wrigley, So I'm curious if you're betting
into the wind trend, Shawn, or if you're serving.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Yes swerving Unfortunately, and this has come down from twelve
and a half to eleven. So again another one that
there's really no value left in the number for me.
But it's worth pointing out and discussing this, and you know,
just being aware of not only today, seemingly the next
three days it's going to be howling out at Wrigley.
Our sports insights wind and weather systems have both. They
(14:06):
actually don't have it triggered today the Wrigley Field weather
systems today. Oddly enough, they have the wind out system
triggered today. But the other three days this week it
looks like the Wrigley Field wind and weather systems are
all pre triggered. So I made this total about eleven. Again,
it was twelve and a half last night, got bet
all the way down to eleven. I said to take
it to eleven and a half at minus one ten.
(14:27):
Not going to sit here and go through the entire
game and explain why you should still bet it when
it's out of range. If it comes back up to
eleven and a half, take it at minus one ten
or better. Beyond that, you can probably leave this alone.
It seems like Griffin Canning should start for the pod race,
and obviously I don't love betting showed at Managa when
the wind is blowing out. I've run the numbers on
his overs versus unders when the wind is out and in.
(14:48):
It is like it aligns exactly with expectations. When the
wind is blowing in, showed his game stay under when
it's blowing out. He tends to get blown up. So
this is not a spot I necessarily want to be
betting into. But I just to this as much as
I possibly could, and still couldn't really get the number
past eleven or eleven and a half. So eleven and
a half under minus one ten if you can get
(15:09):
it again, seems like Griffin Canning should be starting for
the Padres. I'm hoping though, that this bullpen gets involved
as early and as often as possible, because the one
thing the wind does not affect is strikeouts, and if
you have elite relievers in the game, we're striking out
the Cubs hitters, they can't put the ball in the
air and let it carry in the win. So hopefully
Canning if he starts and Shoda can keep this scoring
(15:31):
two four to three through about six innings or so,
and then maybe the bullpens can lock this thing down
in the second half of the game. But that is
the biggest factor I think, you know, in terms of
like betting against the wind, the Padres have an elite bullpen.
If you're expecting the bullpen to be heavily involved in
the game, that is one of the things that can
keep a windy game under in addition to the fact
(15:54):
that these teams are both very good defensively, so hopefully
we get some hits stolen. If there are homers, you know,
hopefully it's of this solo variety and not the multi
run variety. But yeah, under eleven and a half to
minus one.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Ten if there's one offense, well maybe not one offense,
but one of the offenses you would feel good about
showed to not getting lit up by in a game
like this is.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
The Padres, Yes, and a ton of power.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
You know, folks can look at this with your Bartolo
tool actionework dot Com in the Action app. You talk
about the Padres bullpen very rested. Mason Miller hasn't pitched
since last Tuesday. Morahane hasn't pitched since Friday. Chase Adamstone
two of the last three days.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
But said that bullpen game yesterday, that's the bigger concern,
you know, like they don't have a lot of guys.
Mark is tired, but everybody did throw yesterday. Holy hell,
what a sweat and extra innings too with the Cubs
for one bottom of the bottom of the tenth inning.
I have under eight and a half of the Cubs
and the Brewers have the bases loaded with no out.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
So yeah, that's a.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Really bad late game. Luck of late. Thankfully I did
not lose one or both of those vets. That was
an absolute heart attack of the game, but worth no
Literally Craig Council got down to his last reliever, he
didn't want to bring in Jordan Wicks. He was like
sighing at the fact that he had to bring Jordan
Wicks and Wix is able to bail them out, So
thankful for that, but worth noting everybody in the Cubs
bullpen white yesterday.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
A couple of games like that last night the Cubs
Brewers game. Obviously the under hung on and then Yankees
Red Sox obviously went over when that game went to
extras late last night.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
That over, and I didn't pull the trigger. So I'm
a little disappointed I missed out on one of my
potential good bounces. But yeah, I'll take the two and
oh run in the Brewers game.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Yeah, all right, two more totals for you here, all
out West. This is a very Western themed episode today,
Angels Mariners in Seattle, Ryan Johnson, George Kirby. You like
a total here?
Speaker 1 (17:52):
Yeah, eight under eight to seven and a half at
minus one ten. Another line that has moved in our direction.
Every single bat that I placed. Today's inner direction made
some you know, more tightening after some frustrating results the
other day and bet the Cubs plus one eighty yesterday
close plus one forty. All of these numbers had moved
to my direction. So I'm feeling good about the model
(18:14):
directionally in terms of where it's taking us. Just need
some better bounces to actually go in a big run here.
But yeah, under eight to seven and a half at
minus one ten between the Angels and the Mariners. No
adjustment to the weather here, Mariners offense still in a
little bit of a funk. Shouldn't be a piggyback game today.
It seems like they backed off of the piggyback thing
(18:36):
they were going to do one over the weekend. The
bullpen bent ended up being, you know, in relatively good order,
so they kind of moved away from that. They said
they may come back to it at some point, but
you know, there's nothing really like major takeaway wise from
this game. Just hopefully the Angels bullpen and pitching staff
does not get absolutely bombed out by the Mariners offense tonight.
(18:57):
I make this closer to seven point one in this park,
so under seven and a half to minus one o eight.
Angels a good power, good play, a discipline, but they
do not make contact with the baseball. And in this park,
where strikeout rates are already elevated, I think you could
see George Kirby and these Mariners pitchers rack up the strikeouts.
Maybe some Kirby strikeout over ladders. This is just purely anecdotal.
(19:19):
I don't know where Sean Kerner or our projective analytics
people actually project Kirby strikeout number today. But if this
is a team where Kirby is going to get double
digit strikeouts, or this is the type of team where
Kirby can have a double digit strikeout game. So I
think George Kirby and for big night, and hopefully this
game stays under the seven and a half again, you
can bet that to minus one time.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
George Kirby strikeout total today said at six and a half.
Are pro projections powered by Sean Kerner have him at
six point four to four strikeouts today, So no real
significant edge there, but a nice look at a potential
over or ladder on Kirby from Sean Zarillo, the not
prop guy in that one. All right, one final total
(20:03):
for you here before we get out of here. Giant
Diamondbacks Tyler Molly and Eduardo Rodriguez.
Speaker 1 (20:09):
Here, Yeah, over eight and a half. That came up
to nine. I like it to nine at minus one
oh five. E rod had that really hot run in
the WBC, carried it through the first few months of
the season. I think his ERA is still sitting around
two point three, but his Sierra's four point eight is
expected ERA is four point eight. He's a major regression
candidate with a more than two and a half run
(20:30):
gap between his actual eray and his underlying indicators. Tyler Molly,
you know, kind of the opposite eray believe of five
point five Sierra closer to four, expected FIP closer to four,
but four Seemer Slider both get hit pretty hard. I
think he's going to continue to get worse results going forward.
I think pitching in Oracle Park has hit in some
(20:53):
of the results that he's gotten, and he may get
hit harder for home runs the rest of the way.
Even with the room closed, Chase Field is still one
of the best offensive environments in baseball. I think that
kind of gets hidden under the radar here. The Diamondbacks
the best contact team in my model, even higher than
the Jays, very similar offensive profiles to the Jas, though
where they make a lot of contact, it's not necessarily
(21:16):
off of great swing decisions or with great power, but
they make up for it by having elite speed on
the base pass too, So a lot of extra base hits,
a lot of gappers from this team, very few strikeouts,
pretty decent floor. They do have great defense, though, and
that could take away some of the offense from the Giants.
Giants and off of defensive team, so I think that's
where the Diamondbacks largely have the edge. Anytime these teams
(21:40):
match up, the Diamondbacks are just a much more athletic,
better team on the bases, better team in the field.
They're going to do all the little things right. The
Giants hit for more power, the d Backs hit for
much more contact, and they both make terrible swing decisions.
These rate among my worst two teams, my worst two
offenses for swing decisions. So despite that, due to the
(22:00):
pigeon quality, I do like the over here. I made
this total about nine point four pre umpire. We'll be
able to adjust that up or down depending on on
fire information later, but I would take the over nine
two about minus one oh five between the d Backs
and the Giants. And again another one that has come
up from eight and a half to nine and gotten
onto that key number. So I think directionally, certainly the
(22:21):
eight and a half was correct. It may end on nine,
but I think getting in below that key number was
the right timing.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
Couple pro prop projections before we get out of here,
I'll throw out just on a whim here. I didn't
tell they're preducer ready about it, so he probably doesn't
have any graphics set up for it, but just a
couple of games we haven't talked about today. Our biggest
pro edge right now, Sean comes in Red's Brewers. We
have Robert Gasser over five and a half strikeouts today
(22:48):
plus one twelve Sean Kerner has him striking out six
point nine to nine batters today, Big bat missing stuff,
big the the gas man there in Milwaukee, twenty two
point six edge. It's interesting to see how that updates
throughout the day as we get lineups and umpires, et cetera.
The only other near top strikeout edge in a game
(23:10):
we haven't talked about is Zebbie Matthews. Really in on
zeb Matthews last year, been disappointed by him this year.
We like him under five and a half strikeouts against
the Astros today. Minus one thirty nine at DraftKings probably
has him striking out just four point four to seven
batters today. And then in the home run department, I
really want to throw this out. Oh it just moved.
Where did he go? We had a pro edge on
(23:34):
sou Che Chang of the Red Sox. It was something
like seventeen to one. Oh, there it is. It's thirteen
to one. Now, that's why it moved down to just
a three point three percent edge as I'm scrolling through
on the app, our producer Eddie's scrolling through on your
screen for you right now. But I just wanted to
throw that out there, like you know, pro can call
(23:56):
it shot sometimes with he this is Chang has seven
career this be this would be his seventh career game
if he's in the lineup. He just got called up
with Marcela Mayer going on the IL, So maybe we
get a first career homer out of souche Cheng tonight.
The actual top pro edges both come in the Astros
Twins game Byron Buxton plus two to twenty, Royce Lewis
(24:18):
plus four fifty. If Grant Niefer we're on the show today,
he would probably agree with those because those are guys
he bets quite a bit. Eight point seven percent edge
for Bucks and seven point seven percent edge for Lewis.
So just thrown out a little bit of a pro
prop projection love here before we get out of here,
because those are always fun to take a look at.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
Yeah, I just want to I just want to mention
my Gasser real quick. Last time I mentioned him on
the pod. Probably a couple weeks ago, might have betten
over the game. Not really sure what I had or
if I bet against the Brewers, but I said a
guy who you know, regarded the Miners really good stuff
plus ratings. The command piece has just never come together
career eighty nine location plus. But the past few starts
(25:01):
one walk, seven strikeouts, two walks, five strikeouts, two walks,
seven strikeouts, one walk, five strikeouts, seems like the command
is finally starting to come together. For Robert Gasser. The
Brewers pitching lab is absolutely undefeated. I will discuss the
Brewers in much more detail on the Team Futures episode
coming up, but I think Gasser is a guy who
(25:21):
are seeing breakout change. Rohan, you know, kind of similar
mold for the Brewer has been very effective, very efficient
of late. So yeah, I don't know how the Brewers
keep doing it. I don't know what's going on in
terms of their pitching development. But Robert Gasser seems like
yet another guy who is kind of peaking a little
bit so into the over strikeout prop for him kind
of echoed the ZEBI thoughts for you, we're been a
(25:43):
little bit like down by his form this year. I
would lean under on him as well. So I like
both those strikeout props that you mentioned.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
Gasser. It's a lot of it's just been health with
him too. He hasn't thrown a lot the last couple
of years. One hundred and thirty five innings in twenty
twenty three, and I don't even think he's reached that
in the three years since because of various injuries.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
So should also know too, Like he's a guy who throws.
He's in you know, lefty throwing ninety one miles an hour,
popping one oh five stuff plus rating. So the breaking stuff,
the slider, even the fastball. The fastball is a one
to twenty stuff plus grade. You know, he's throwing it
in the low nineties from the left side, so there's
a lot of life and a lot of movement on it.
It's not just uh, he's not blowing it by guys,
(26:23):
It's it's like finesse explosiveness.
Speaker 2 (26:26):
Bobby Gasser strikeouts over today, sousche Cheng hit a home run,
call him my shot there with pro All right, that'll
do it for today's episode of Payoff Pitch. Thanks so
much for tuning in. If you'd like to tail some
of the bets from today's episode. Look for the quick
slip links in the episode description. Don't forget to download
the free award winning Action of Work app. Also, please
leave us a five star rating and review wherever you
(26:47):
listen to the podcast. We will be back tomorrow with
another episode of Payoff Pitch. We'll also be back whenever
the next podcast goes up. We're gonna start recording our
Big Futures Update right after this, to be sure to
tune in for that as well well, and then live
Payoff Pitch Tuesday morning, ten a m. Eastern. We'll have
Grantony for on here to talk Dingers as well for shawn'srella.
(27:08):
I'm coming Richard. Thanks so much for listening to Payoff Pitch,
Action Network's Major League Baseball betting podcast. Good luck with
all your best. Putting his crowd on his feet, What
a trip no one watch to leave
That flying a tight ball.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
No crying, and this game's underway.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Into the line up.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It is spring stop bringing Josh the bit outside. Here's
a drive in a deep bliftfield by Castiano, so it
will be a home run to right field. And look
to sum it up.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
You talk about a roll at the dice, this is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch. Welcome to Payoff Pitch, Action Networks
Major League Baseball Betting Podcast. It is Monday, June twenty ninth.
I'm Colin Wicharch, joined as usual by Action Network senior
MLB analyst Shamzrillo to break down this Monday slate. It's
a pretty busy slate for a Monday U no Day baseball,
(00:54):
but three six, nine, twelve, thirteen games on this Monday,
A couple teams off, but got a decent slate here,
decent slated games. We've got Bobaschetz returned to Toronto tonight
in Mets Blue Jays' first appearance there, obviously since hitting
a big home running Game seven of the World Series.
(01:18):
So yeah, let's jump right into it. We've got some
best bets here from Sean. A quick reminder though, before
we get started, that we are right after we get
off the air, here, Sean and I are going to
be recording a Futures update. We're about almost the exact
halfway point of the season. I think a lot of
teams are at exactly eighty one games at this point,
eighty eighty two games. So we're gonna record a second
(01:41):
episode here today, looking at World Series, Futures, penance divisions, MVP, SI,
Young Rookie of the Year, et cetera. So be sure
to keep an eye out for that on your podcast
feed as well. But all right, let's jump in to
this Monday slay. Sean, I just alluded to it. I
alluded to it before I even looked at what your
(02:01):
bets were for today. Mets Blue Jays in Toronto, Sean Manaya, Trey,
Yesvijy Savage. I always forget how to pronounce his name.
You have a take here on Mets Blue Jays. The Mets,
of course, I don't know if we've had an episode
since they fired Carlos Mendoza, traded David Peterson to the Cubs,
maybe signaling the start of some big changes in the
(02:24):
month of July for the Mets. But what do you
got here in Mets Blue Jays.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Yeah. I was actually live on the Pop with Derek
Carty on Friday right after the Carlos Mendoza firing, so
that was enjoyable to react to on the fly. I
don't have any additional thoughts. Really, Met's putting their player
development guy in charge. That has been the strength of
the organization thus far under David Stearns. The only strength
of the organization is the guys they brought up have
(02:51):
largely performed okay at the major league level, not all
of them. Tongue struggling a little bit, some of the
arms have struggled, but Carson Bench has looked great, especially
late so going in terms of the player development route,
the young guys they have up on the roster maybe
getting the voice that's been in their ears a little
bit more regularly around. In terms of Andy Green, former
Padres manager, I believe Andy Green, and we'll see whether
(03:15):
he's able to hold on to the interim title, whether
we have a whole new regime next year. But in
terms of today's matchup and how these teams look against
one another, particularly the offenses, I talked a lot a
lot with Derek on Friday. Now that Lindor and Sodo
are back. The Mets project is one of my best offenses.
And not only do they project as a good offense,
their power metrics from this year, the damage that they're
(03:37):
putting on the baseball. Their plate discipline metrics from this
year are great, and they make a lot of contact.
Along with that, A lot of the teams that I
rate really highly for power and plate discipline don't make
contact with the ball as regularly. They tend to have
higher strikeout rates. The Mets actually have a relatively low
strikeout rate compared to the power metrics and howard they're
(03:58):
swinging the bats and power certainly favors of the Mets offense.
The J's advantages in this game are contact and defense.
They're going to steal more hits for the Mets. In
terms of balls and play, the Mets these significantly worse
defensive team. But the Jays do not have power and
they do not have great play discipline either. Their swing decisions,
(04:18):
you know, they're fouling off a lot of pitches with
two strikes, and as a result of that philosophy, you're
just not swinging at the most optimal pitches. You're just
trying to stay alive and counts, put the ball in play, etc.
So big difference in terms of offensive philosophy here, Mets
trying to work walks, hit homers, the Jays trying to
avoid strikeouts and steal hits from their opponents. Prefer the
(04:39):
Mets offense again, I ranked them. I leave my second
best offense right now behind the Dodgers. And that's assuming
that Kyle Tucker is like back to his you know,
somewhat peak self, because Dodgers, with Kyle Tucker looking the
way he has has been pretty embarrassing of late. I
think they stuck him on a phantomilese than in the
middle of June. But Jay's pitching advantage here largely in
(05:00):
the bullpen. I actually projected an eye is slightly better
than I do you savage right now, you Savage. The
walks have gone up, strikeouts have dipped of late, strike
up minus walk right about three percent over his last
six starts. And going back to the arm injury, the
shoulder injury that he had in the preseason, I think
that's somewhat connected where this is a guy who looks
like he might be wearing down, you know, through a
(05:22):
ton of innings last year. Going all the way up
essentially from the draft through a ball to double A
all the way to the major leagues. Had the postseason
innings came back this year spring, had the arm issues
went on, the IL brought him back off of that,
and now the results have declined. So those are kind
of a trendy red flag for me in terms of
(05:42):
like the progression of the innings into the injury back
into the performance dip. That's never really a good sign
for me. So I made the Mets about I believe
minus won ten in this game, and I would bet
them to even money. I was able to get plus
one ten last night. So it looks like all the
CoV and all the lines have kind of moved in
concert with my bets for today. But that is how
(06:05):
I break down Mets and Jays, and you know, it's
it's a little bit difficult to bet on this Mets
team who looks like they already have nothing to play for.
We'll get into it in the futures episode. I actually
protect value in the Jays to miss the playoffs. I
make them about minus two fifty to miss the playoffs.
Currently can get about minus one nineties. So Colin and
I are gonna have a full special Bonus Futures episode
(06:27):
that we will have after the Monday Slate episode. But
just you know, one of the many nuggets I've dug
up in terms of looking around the league, that Jay's
a value bet to miss the playoffs at present, and
the chemistry, the vibes, they are completely off, Colin. I
don't know if you saw the clip of them down
the other day the game that I bet. I believe
they were down seven to nothing, seven to one. Alejandro
(06:47):
Kirk had a two run homework to bring to seven
to three, and Vlad tried to put the the swag
jacket on him as he get back to the dugout,
and Kirk just like shrugged him off, and then Vladi
gave him a look like that. So the vibes are
definitely often to run. I know, I'm not sure what's
going on in that clubhouse, but definitely some infighting and
lack of chemistry got on.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Yeah, interesting stuff. Out of Toronto. Vlad is struggling. Okamoto
actually had a great June. He started to turn things around.
But it's surprising. We can get into this more, but
they have an All Star finalist at every position you'd
think they'd be better, right, you know, you know we'll
joke about the Jays fan stuff in the ballot. You know,
(07:27):
Ernie Clement the leading vote getter for the All Star
You know, how could this team be so bad They've
got Ernie Clement. Anyway, let's move on to your next game.
You mentioned some lines on the move Reminder if you
have the Action app, if you're a pro subscriber, Sean
is often logging these bets overnight, late Sunday night into
(07:50):
early Monday morning. You get these best prices a lot
of times they move by the time we're talking about
them here on this show. Maybe this is an example
of one Sean can get into it. Marlin's Rockies incurs
tonight Sandy al Contra and Sean Sullivan.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
Yeah, you know, I thought, was Sandy al Contra going
to Coors. Maybe there's some sort of like Sandy has
been good at Coors because it keeps the ball on
the ground. It's not really the case. His career splits
it Cors. I think is he raised over six the
last already had there wasn't great. It seems like the
strikeouts don't come for him as easily. There the walks
tend to go up a little bit. So it seems
like Sandy is just as affected by cors Field as
(08:26):
every other pitcher. There's no exceptions. Because he keeps the
ball on the ground that you know, there's fewer hits
or whatever because the ball doesn't get to that giant outfield.
Just it affects him in a different way. It seems
like it affects his command as opposed to giving up
the harder hit balls. But obviously project a massive starting
pitching edge for him here over Sullivan and the Rockies
(08:48):
for today. But it's more so the lineup differential for
me for the Marlins over the Rockies. Rockies make a
lot of contact, but the swing decisions the power are
essentially non existent. The swing decisions a little bit better
than power. Minimal power on this team, really bad base
running team, below larverage defensive team as well. I made
the Marlins about minus one forty. They were minus one
(09:10):
twenty last night, open closer to minus one fifteen or
minus one ten. I said to bet them up to
minus one thirty. That is where it is this morning.
So I'm not gonna waste a ton of time on
this game. If you're able to get minus one thirty
or better on the Marlins, I would take it certainly
trending in the right direction. They rank among my best
teams for I ratings, so I think this team makes
really good swing decisions, and I think that's a big
(09:32):
reason why the Marlins are above five hundred right now.
Just making a lot better process oriented decisions at the plate,
and that's their biggest advantage in this game over the Rockies.
To give me the Marlins to minus one thirty.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Staying out west to Sacramento, We've got a Dodgers A's
match up there. Intriguing young pitcher Gauge jump on the
mound for the A's Eric Lauer for the Dodgers. What
do you get there?
Speaker 1 (10:01):
Yeah? I like Gaye jump a lot. If you've tailed me,
I bet on him. Think in all but one of
his starts thus far in the Bigs, he's been extremely effective.
One oh seven pitching plus rating one ten, stuff plus
sierra of three point six expected the array of three,
so he's been very effective. He's my SP thirty two
to this point of the season, fastball ninety six miles
(10:23):
an hour from the left hand side, so very effective
in terms of the velocity, effective curve and change up
as well also throwing a sweeper. None of the pitches
have been hit, everything sitting at like a two to
ten wOBA or below, the fastballs at a two eighty,
everything else at two twelve or below. So a very
varied and effective arsenal has shown really good command to
(10:45):
also seen him pitch out of trouble as well, so
seemingly no issues pitching out of the stretch versus the
wind up. Been really impressed by gage jump thus far,
Eric Lauer going to go for the Dodgers, obviously much
better results with the Dodgers than he had with the
Blue Jays. Straightout marks have not approved. You know, the
pitchmicks has not really changed. This still seems like a
guy who projects near a replacement level arm. He's just
(11:07):
gotten better luck, gotten better defense behind him with the Daughters.
But this is the guy who still ranks my SP
two O two, you know, right near the bottom of
my starting picture rankings. I think there's only like two
hundred and five guys on there. We do this occasionally
on the POT. I just like to see the updated
weekly look at who is the lowest man on the board. Well,
are still at number two O four. I'm sorry, Colin
(11:29):
Sean Sullivan at two oh three, four at two two,
I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Go ahead, sorry? Who was it?
Speaker 1 (11:35):
Two o four, Lucas Giolito unfortunately.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Oh okay, I was gonna say, do sures are still qualified?
Is he is?
Speaker 1 (11:41):
He's he's not. He's been removed from the list the list.
That was not my choice. It was just like, yeah,
this isn't happening anymore, so it removed him. I think
if there were two hundred and five names on the list,
sures or would still be two six right now. That's
how bad that was this year. So uh yeah, I'm
I'm really low oner. I have not upgraded him whatsoever
(12:02):
since he moved to the Dodgers. Again, no change of
pitch makes no change really in the underlying peripherals. I
made the A's favorites here. I make the is minus
one oh five against the Dodgers. They were plus one
to ten last night, and they've come down to a
round even money today, so not a ton of room left.
I would bet, I'm sorry, I make the A's closer
to minus one thirteen. I would bet them to minus
(12:22):
one oh five, and it has come down to a
run even money today, so still room to minus one
oh five. Not a ton of room yet, but directionally,
I'm sure. Seeing the market move against the Dodgers overnight,
you got to assume the A's or the right side
of this game. So give me the Athletics to minus
one oh five for night.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
All uh, all eighty grade bets from Sean today. I
didn't mention at the top of the show, this is
the eighty grade section. We're gonna we got three more
eighty grade bets here from Sean and we're gonna go
to Wrigley. You know, I'm here in Chicago and it
is a heat wave week here in Chicago. It is
the last week it's been like sixty seventies. I'm like,
(13:02):
what the hell is this June zipping right up today?
Nineties all week and at Wrigley today, we've got sixteen
mile an hour wind blowing out to left center. So
we have a total we have a course field total
at Wrigley today eleven twelve range, depending on where you're looking.
(13:25):
It's showeda Managa on the mound for the Cubs. I'm
not sure if the Pirates have announced. I'm sure the
Padres have announced a starting picture, Sean. You can get
into who you project for that maybe, but it's a
weather game at Wrigley, So I'm curious if you're betting
into the wind trend, Shawn, or if you're serving.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Yes swerving Unfortunately, and this has come down from twelve
and a half to eleven. So again another one that
there's really no value left in the number for me.
But it's worth pointing out and discussing this, and you know,
just being aware of not only today, seemingly the next
three days it's going to be howling out at Wrigley.
Our sports insights wind and weather systems have both. They
(14:06):
actually don't have it triggered today the Wrigley Field weather
systems today. Oddly enough, they have the wind out system
triggered today. But the other three days this week it
looks like the Wrigley Field wind and weather systems are
all pre triggered. So I made this total about eleven. Again,
it was twelve and a half last night, got bet
all the way down to eleven. I said to take
it to eleven and a half at minus one ten.
(14:27):
Not going to sit here and go through the entire
game and explain why you should still bet it when
it's out of range. If it comes back up to
eleven and a half, take it at minus one ten
or better. Beyond that, you can probably leave this alone.
It seems like Griffin Canning should start for the pod race,
and obviously I don't love betting showed at Managa when
the wind is blowing out. I've run the numbers on
his overs versus unders when the wind is out and in.
(14:48):
It is like it aligns exactly with expectations. When the
wind is blowing in, showed his game stay under when
it's blowing out. He tends to get blown up. So
this is not a spot I necessarily want to be
betting into. But I just to this as much as
I possibly could, and still couldn't really get the number
past eleven or eleven and a half. So eleven and
a half under minus one ten if you can get
(15:09):
it again, seems like Griffin Canning should be starting for
the Padres. I'm hoping though, that this bullpen gets involved
as early and as often as possible, because the one
thing the wind does not affect is strikeouts, and if
you have elite relievers in the game, we're striking out
the Cubs hitters, they can't put the ball in the
air and let it carry in the win. So hopefully
Canning if he starts and Shoda can keep this scoring
(15:31):
two four to three through about six innings or so,
and then maybe the bullpens can lock this thing down
in the second half of the game. But that is
the biggest factor I think, you know, in terms of
like betting against the wind, the Padres have an elite bullpen.
If you're expecting the bullpen to be heavily involved in
the game, that is one of the things that can
keep a windy game under in addition to the fact
(15:54):
that these teams are both very good defensively, so hopefully
we get some hits stolen. If there are homers, you know,
hopefully it's of this solo variety and not the multi
run variety. But yeah, under eleven and a half to
minus one.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Ten if there's one offense, well maybe not one offense,
but one of the offenses you would feel good about
showed to not getting lit up by in a game
like this is.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
The Padres, Yes, and a ton of power.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
You know, folks can look at this with your Bartolo
tool actionework dot Com in the Action app. You talk
about the Padres bullpen very rested. Mason Miller hasn't pitched
since last Tuesday. Morahane hasn't pitched since Friday. Chase Adamstone
two of the last three days.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
But said that bullpen game yesterday, that's the bigger concern,
you know, like they don't have a lot of guys.
Mark is tired, but everybody did throw yesterday. Holy hell,
what a sweat and extra innings too with the Cubs
for one bottom of the bottom of the tenth inning.
I have under eight and a half of the Cubs
and the Brewers have the bases loaded with no out.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
So yeah, that's a.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Really bad late game. Luck of late. Thankfully I did
not lose one or both of those vets. That was
an absolute heart attack of the game, but worth no
Literally Craig Council got down to his last reliever, he
didn't want to bring in Jordan Wicks. He was like
sighing at the fact that he had to bring Jordan
Wicks and Wix is able to bail them out, So
thankful for that, but worth noting everybody in the Cubs
bullpen white yesterday.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
A couple of games like that last night the Cubs
Brewers game. Obviously the under hung on and then Yankees
Red Sox obviously went over when that game went to
extras late last night.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
That over, and I didn't pull the trigger. So I'm
a little disappointed I missed out on one of my
potential good bounces. But yeah, I'll take the two and
oh run in the Brewers game.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Yeah, all right, two more totals for you here, all
out West. This is a very Western themed episode today,
Angels Mariners in Seattle, Ryan Johnson, George Kirby. You like
a total here?
Speaker 1 (17:52):
Yeah, eight under eight to seven and a half at
minus one ten. Another line that has moved in our direction.
Every single bat that I placed. Today's inner direction made
some you know, more tightening after some frustrating results the
other day and bet the Cubs plus one eighty yesterday
close plus one forty. All of these numbers had moved
to my direction. So I'm feeling good about the model
(18:14):
directionally in terms of where it's taking us. Just need
some better bounces to actually go in a big run here.
But yeah, under eight to seven and a half at
minus one ten between the Angels and the Mariners. No
adjustment to the weather here, Mariners offense still in a
little bit of a funk. Shouldn't be a piggyback game today.
It seems like they backed off of the piggyback thing
(18:36):
they were going to do one over the weekend. The
bullpen bent ended up being, you know, in relatively good order,
so they kind of moved away from that. They said
they may come back to it at some point, but
you know, there's nothing really like major takeaway wise from
this game. Just hopefully the Angels bullpen and pitching staff
does not get absolutely bombed out by the Mariners offense tonight.
(18:57):
I make this closer to seven point one in this park,
so under seven and a half to minus one o eight.
Angels a good power, good play, a discipline, but they
do not make contact with the baseball. And in this park,
where strikeout rates are already elevated, I think you could
see George Kirby and these Mariners pitchers rack up the strikeouts.
Maybe some Kirby strikeout over ladders. This is just purely anecdotal.
(19:19):
I don't know where Sean Kerner or our projective analytics
people actually project Kirby strikeout number today. But if this
is a team where Kirby is going to get double
digit strikeouts, or this is the type of team where
Kirby can have a double digit strikeout game. So I
think George Kirby and for big night, and hopefully this
game stays under the seven and a half again, you
can bet that to minus one time.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
George Kirby strikeout total today said at six and a half.
Are pro projections powered by Sean Kerner have him at
six point four to four strikeouts today, So no real
significant edge there, but a nice look at a potential
over or ladder on Kirby from Sean Zarillo, the not
prop guy in that one. All right, one final total
(20:03):
for you here before we get out of here. Giant
Diamondbacks Tyler Molly and Eduardo Rodriguez.
Speaker 1 (20:09):
Here, Yeah, over eight and a half. That came up
to nine. I like it to nine at minus one
oh five. E rod had that really hot run in
the WBC, carried it through the first few months of
the season. I think his ERA is still sitting around
two point three, but his Sierra's four point eight is
expected ERA is four point eight. He's a major regression
candidate with a more than two and a half run
(20:30):
gap between his actual eray and his underlying indicators. Tyler Molly,
you know, kind of the opposite eray believe of five
point five Sierra closer to four, expected FIP closer to four,
but four Seemer Slider both get hit pretty hard. I
think he's going to continue to get worse results going forward.
I think pitching in Oracle Park has hit in some
(20:53):
of the results that he's gotten, and he may get
hit harder for home runs the rest of the way.
Even with the room closed, Chase Field is still one
of the best offensive environments in baseball. I think that
kind of gets hidden under the radar here. The Diamondbacks
the best contact team in my model, even higher than
the Jays, very similar offensive profiles to the Jas, though
where they make a lot of contact, it's not necessarily
(21:16):
off of great swing decisions or with great power, but
they make up for it by having elite speed on
the base pass too, So a lot of extra base hits,
a lot of gappers from this team, very few strikeouts,
pretty decent floor. They do have great defense, though, and
that could take away some of the offense from the Giants.
Giants and off of defensive team, so I think that's
where the Diamondbacks largely have the edge. Anytime these teams
(21:40):
match up, the Diamondbacks are just a much more athletic,
better team on the bases, better team in the field.
They're going to do all the little things right. The
Giants hit for more power, the d Backs hit for
much more contact, and they both make terrible swing decisions.
These rate among my worst two teams, my worst two
offenses for swing decisions. So despite that, due to the
(22:00):
pigeon quality, I do like the over here. I made
this total about nine point four pre umpire. We'll be
able to adjust that up or down depending on on
fire information later, but I would take the over nine
two about minus one oh five between the d Backs
and the Giants. And again another one that has come
up from eight and a half to nine and gotten
onto that key number. So I think directionally, certainly the
(22:21):
eight and a half was correct. It may end on nine,
but I think getting in below that key number was
the right timing.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
Couple pro prop projections before we get out of here,
I'll throw out just on a whim here. I didn't
tell they're preducer ready about it, so he probably doesn't
have any graphics set up for it, but just a
couple of games we haven't talked about today. Our biggest
pro edge right now, Sean comes in Red's Brewers. We
have Robert Gasser over five and a half strikeouts today
(22:48):
plus one twelve Sean Kerner has him striking out six
point nine to nine batters today, Big bat missing stuff,
big the the gas man there in Milwaukee, twenty two
point six edge. It's interesting to see how that updates
throughout the day as we get lineups and umpires, et cetera.
The only other near top strikeout edge in a game
(23:10):
we haven't talked about is Zebbie Matthews. Really in on
zeb Matthews last year, been disappointed by him this year.
We like him under five and a half strikeouts against
the Astros today. Minus one thirty nine at DraftKings probably
has him striking out just four point four to seven
batters today. And then in the home run department, I
really want to throw this out. Oh it just moved.
Where did he go? We had a pro edge on
(23:34):
sou Che Chang of the Red Sox. It was something
like seventeen to one. Oh, there it is. It's thirteen
to one. Now, that's why it moved down to just
a three point three percent edge as I'm scrolling through
on the app, our producer Eddie's scrolling through on your
screen for you right now. But I just wanted to
throw that out there, like you know, pro can call
(23:56):
it shot sometimes with he this is Chang has seven
career this be this would be his seventh career game
if he's in the lineup. He just got called up
with Marcela Mayer going on the IL, So maybe we
get a first career homer out of souche Cheng tonight.
The actual top pro edges both come in the Astros
Twins game Byron Buxton plus two to twenty, Royce Lewis
(24:18):
plus four fifty. If Grant Niefer we're on the show today,
he would probably agree with those because those are guys
he bets quite a bit. Eight point seven percent edge
for Bucks and seven point seven percent edge for Lewis.
So just thrown out a little bit of a pro
prop projection love here before we get out of here,
because those are always fun to take a look at.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
Yeah, I just want to I just want to mention
my Gasser real quick. Last time I mentioned him on
the pod. Probably a couple weeks ago, might have betten
over the game. Not really sure what I had or
if I bet against the Brewers, but I said a
guy who you know, regarded the Miners really good stuff
plus ratings. The command piece has just never come together
career eighty nine location plus. But the past few starts
(25:01):
one walk, seven strikeouts, two walks, five strikeouts, two walks,
seven strikeouts, one walk, five strikeouts, seems like the command
is finally starting to come together. For Robert Gasser. The
Brewers pitching lab is absolutely undefeated. I will discuss the
Brewers in much more detail on the Team Futures episode
coming up, but I think Gasser is a guy who
(25:21):
are seeing breakout change. Rohan, you know, kind of similar
mold for the Brewer has been very effective, very efficient
of late. So yeah, I don't know how the Brewers
keep doing it. I don't know what's going on in
terms of their pitching development. But Robert Gasser seems like
yet another guy who is kind of peaking a little
bit so into the over strikeout prop for him kind
of echoed the ZEBI thoughts for you, we're been a
(25:43):
little bit like down by his form this year. I
would lean under on him as well. So I like
both those strikeout props that you mentioned.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
Gasser. It's a lot of it's just been health with
him too. He hasn't thrown a lot the last couple
of years. One hundred and thirty five innings in twenty
twenty three, and I don't even think he's reached that
in the three years since because of various injuries.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
So should also know too, Like he's a guy who throws.
He's in you know, lefty throwing ninety one miles an hour,
popping one oh five stuff plus rating. So the breaking stuff,
the slider, even the fastball. The fastball is a one
to twenty stuff plus grade. You know, he's throwing it
in the low nineties from the left side, so there's
a lot of life and a lot of movement on it.
It's not just uh, he's not blowing it by guys,
(26:23):
It's it's like finesse explosiveness.
Speaker 2 (26:26):
Bobby Gasser strikeouts over today, sousche Cheng hit a home run,
call him my shot there with pro All right, that'll
do it for today's episode of Payoff Pitch. Thanks so
much for tuning in. If you'd like to tail some
of the bets from today's episode. Look for the quick
slip links in the episode description. Don't forget to download
the free award winning Action of Work app. Also, please
leave us a five star rating and review wherever you
(26:47):
listen to the podcast. We will be back tomorrow with
another episode of Payoff Pitch. We'll also be back whenever
the next podcast goes up. We're gonna start recording our
Big Futures Update right after this, to be sure to
tune in for that as well well, and then live
Payoff Pitch Tuesday morning, ten a m. Eastern. We'll have
Grantony for on here to talk Dingers as well for shawn'srella.
(27:08):
I'm coming Richard. Thanks so much for listening to Payoff Pitch,
Action Network's Major League Baseball betting podcast. Good luck with
all your best. Putting his crowd on his feet, What
a trip no one watch to leave
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