July 28, 2026 • 21 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch and Sean Zerillo are here to break down the Tuesday's MLB slate. The guys dive into sides and totals for today as well as revisite their futures from the pre season. Tune in to hear his top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page so you don't miss our live shows every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
No crying and this game is underway. The line up
it is Springs offering Josh the bit out sign.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos who
will be a home run.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And hello to time you talk about a roll at
the dice. This is it. Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch. Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting podcast.
It is Tuesday, July twenty eighth, I com Witchurch joined
by Action Network Senior MLB analyst Sean Zarillo to break
down the best bets for this Tuesday MLB slate. Another
(00:56):
busy Tuesday. We have a double header today. Guardians and
Reds got rained out, so early game there one forty
Eastern Star, everything else under the lights tonight. We'll keep
it quick and dirty, straightforward for you here tonight. Sean's
got a couple bets. I'll give out some dingers from
our pro projections at the end. No grant need for today,
as we usually have on Dinger Tuesday, but we'll look
(01:18):
at a couple Dinger bets that are pro projections, like
at the end of the show. So Sean, let's start
us off with our best bets and you are going
to the Red Sox Athletics game in Sacramento. Jake Bennett
against gauge jumping. This one a couple intriguing young arms.
(01:41):
I was looking at the standings right before we log down.
The A's have the worst run differential in baseball. I
knew that they had gone in the tank. I didn't
realize they had been worse than like the Rockies. The
gauge jump one of their more intriguing young arms. And
so where are you going with this one today?
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Yeah, he's led to aos at some point this year.
I guess everybody seemingly has led to aos at some
point this year, as the Rangers have finally overtaken by
a couple games of the Mariners. But in terms of
this matchup, like both of these young lefties, they get
to their or they have different profiles in terms of
their effectiveness. Bennett is the location and the command guy
one to fifteen location plus but just the ninety two
(02:20):
stuff plus figure. But what he does do is generate
relatively weak contact relative to that stuff profile, much more
like a Perker Messik, where you don't see you see
the eleade command, you don't see the elite stuff. On paper,
but in terms of how it plays out and generating
weak contact, seemingly plays a little bit better than the
stuff models. But that said, he's still overachieved this year
two point five eight ERA Sierra north of four point
(02:44):
h seven, so nearly a run and a half gap
between his actual results and his expected results as underlying indicators.
Eighteen percent strikeout rate just not going to be able
to maintain a sub three ERA when you don't strike
out that many guys gage up.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
On the other and is the stuff guy.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
He has a one to ten stuff plus rating, but
a ninety nine location plus rating four point four ERA
aligns with his expected ERA of four point two, So
I think both of these guys are closer to league
average starters. I have them ranked seventieth and seventy second
right now, respectively. Fairly comparable in terms of the starting
pitching matchup, just as I said, they'd get to their
(03:22):
results in different ways.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
Red Sox the better lineup.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
With both Shay Langliers and Nick Kurtz currently on the
IL for the Athletics, seemingly Langliers probably done for the year.
We'll see if Kurtz ends up coming back with the
A's struggling so mightily and having nothing to play for
seemingly in the second half Red Sox bullpen advantage number
three versus number twenty four bullpen. But all of that said,
(03:46):
this number was just too big for me. At plus
one thirty five last night, I make this game plus
one twelve for the Athletics. I would bet them down
to plus one twenty two. Just thought this line was
a little bit far off from where markets should be
in frankly, the A's the Rockies, they're starting to get
that extra bad team tax as we get into the
(04:07):
dog days is summer now, the Rockies in that series
against the Brewers, that first game against the Brewers, the Rockies,
I made them about plus two hundred. They shot up
and closed all the way at like plus two fifty
in that first game of the series against the Brewers
that they ended up winning, I believe three one or
three two. So definitely keep an eye on these bad teams.
You are closer to game time, closer to first pitch,
(04:29):
just getting a little extra tax in terms of the favorite.
And if you buy back on the underdog, you're actually
getting a pretty decent price point. I've actually looked into this.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Again.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
Part of my article I'm going to have coming out
on CLV the teams who the market moves the biggest
to get so that the sides that the market moves
most aggressively against. Obviously, if you bet those sides at
their opening number, you would not be doing well.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
But if you bet.
Speaker 3 (04:55):
Those biggest movers against the closing line, you could actually
be a break even better. Just because there's so much
tax on the favorite, You're getting such a ridiculous price
on these underdogs that you can just kind of pick
and choose them and potentially be profitable just playing those
gigantic dogs that the line has moved aggressively against closer
to game time. So just worth keeping in mind you
(05:16):
do you see a little extra tax on these bad teams.
I thought we sad some overnight here though, as opposed
to closer to game time, and it seems like the
market has moved a little bit in our direction.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Saw one of those gigantic underdogs cash last night. I
think Marlins were one of the biggest underdogs the season
last night, coming in with their twelve game losing streak
against Sack Wheeler. Of course, the Marlins won eight to seven.
In a walk off in that one. All right, let's
move on to your other You have one other side,
(05:46):
and you have a total in this game as well.
One of the better teams in baseball against one of
the worst teams in baseball. Brewers, Giants, Logan Henderson, Land
and Roope again a side and a total for you
in this one.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
Yeah, Brewers under in this matchup, I make the Brewers
about minus one sixty, and I make the total about
six point nine, so the Brewers to minus one fifty,
and then the under seven and a half to about
minus one twenty minus one eighteen. Just gave Logan Henderson
a couple of starts off the aisle to make sure
everything was right. He looks like he did prior to
(06:22):
the ile stint. I think he's just been one of
the best pitchers in baseball this season, and the replacement
that he will be essentially for Brandon Woodruff if he
is healthy come playoff time for the Brewers is as
I said, sufficient for them to go up against the
team like the Dodgers. If you give me miss Rowski
and Henderson and Kyle Earrison, I'm ready to roll in
a five game series, hopefully against the Dodgers. Maybe not
a seven game series with the Dodgers pitching dep would
(06:44):
love a Milwaukee versus LA five game series though for
the Brewers potential upset chances after getting swept in four
last year, But love Logan Henderson. Thirty two percent strike
out rate, five percent walk rate, seventy percent first pitch
strike rate, just consistently gets ahead of hitters. Is not
sloppy in terms of the ball rate, just very efficient
in terms of getting through hitters. Has an elite change
(07:07):
up thirty eight percent with rate on his change up
has to be one of the best in baseball, aside
from schoobl and Chris Sanchez.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
So really like Logan Henderson quite a bit.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Landon Roupe has kind of fallen off a little bit
relative to where he was earlier in the year. His
indicators still in the mid threes closer to four. Has
a high ground ball rate, which you don't necessarily need
at Oracle Park, but it helps anywhere you go. The
problem is that his walk rate has climbed up near
ten percent of late, and as the walks continue to
(07:37):
pile up, he's gotten shelled a little bit more frequently.
Six walks in two and two thirds in a blow
up against the Arizona Diamondbacks. When the command waivers roupe,
he tends to fall apart, but his last three starts,
averaging about six innings and one and a half runs
over those three and seems like he's finally gotten it back.
(07:58):
I think maybe a guy have to investigate from a
home road splits perspective. And then also the Giants as
well don't have the best defense, and I do think
guys can tighten up when pitching in front of bad
defenses and try to get the strikeouts and ended up
walking a few more hitters just being a little bit
more careful nibbling around the zone. So all of that said,
prefer the Brewers starting pitcher, Prefer the Brewers bullpen.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Prefer the Brewers.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
Line up both offensively and defensively, and the base running
make them about minus one sixty other road here taking
them minus one fifty, and then the under seven and
a half to minus one eighteen between.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
The Brewers and the Giants. Worth noting.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
You know, Oracle Park wind is always blowing out if
you're somebody who analyzes like win weather for these ballparks
has virtually the wind has virtually no effect at Oracle Park.
It's purely the temperature. So when you get to these
night games where it's always going to be cool in
San Francisco, it's just tougher for the ball to carry,
(08:57):
tougher for the ball to fly. When you get the
day games there on, you know, the afternoon games right
before the getaway day or the Sunday afternoon games, that's
when the ball carries at this park. So if you
notice a pattern in terms of whether I bet overs
or unders in Oracle, it tends to be unders in
night games and then overs and day games.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Sixty four degrees projected first pitch weather temperature in San
Francisco tonight. Yeah, this is one of those. I was
looking at the lines this morning and I was like, man,
it almost felt like a trap. Brewis I feel like
the Brewers should be bigger favorites than this, But you
know the model, the model agrees. It makes me feel good, obviously.
The Giants three nothing win last night, Tyler Molly pulled
(09:39):
one out of his ass somehow.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
There.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
So Brewers and under for you in San Francisco tonight.
Speaking of weather, a couple of games at risk today
looks like as you know Red's guardians got rained out
last night doubleheader. Today looks like Braves Mets have a
rain risk tonight in New York and then Blue Jays
Nationals where we will go to next. My my Max
(10:07):
Strews are fade did not go well last night. He
was getting hit. It was very very very lucky to
get out of that game the way he did. Thought
there was gonna be runs galore in that one. I
think it ended three to two or four to three,
something like that. But you know, we move on. There
is a rain risk tonight in d C, as I mentioned,
(10:30):
But you like a total in this one, which is
Shane Bieber against Kate Cavali tonight in DC.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
Yeah, hopefully if it rains it bails us out of
like a four to three game in the fifth inning
or five milhing game in the fifth inning. Here, because
I do have the under under nine between the Nationals
and Eyj's, I like it down to eight and a
half though at minus one oh five I make this
closer to eight point two. Should mention that that Mets game,
the over that I had last night got sweaty because
of the rain. It was three to three now of
the fifth Mets d bases loaded, two out, and the
(10:58):
Mets announcers are like, all right, just get a here,
and it's an official game and we could call this thing.
And Jared Young thankfully struck out on three pitches looking
with the bases loaded, never took the bat off of
his shoulder. Yeah, I would have absolutely dreaded that what
looked like a shore over eight and a half ended
up getting there that had been suspended and then pushed
(11:18):
or something like that. That's just the way the year
has gone. Ultimately and thankfully got to the window. But
between Kay Cavali and Shane Bieber, I do like this
under Bieber was terrible when he first came back. His
last two starts, he's been much better and the velocities
come back a little bit more on his pitches. I
just think Shane Bieber came back a little bit prematurely.
Now he looks a little bit healthier. But Kay Gabally
(11:41):
has been borderline elite, I mean, one of the best
pitchers in baseball over the past run thirty two percent
strikeout minus walk in his last five starts, expected FIP
of two over that same span. Shane Bieber I believe
the expected Phip has gone down sub four in each
of his past two starts to feeling a little bit
better about what he's doing. The J's offense virtually no power,
(12:04):
all contact, but no power. Also remained one of the
best defensive teams in baseball, so where they could steal
some hits from these Nationals. The Nationals elite power, but
bad play, discipline, and bad contact. So as long as
Shane Bieber is not serving up gopher balls like he
was earlier in the year, I do like this game
to stay under provided also the Nationals bullpen does not
(12:24):
bullow things up late, but Cavali is typically able to
pitch deep enough into these games that that's not enough
of a concern.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
Nationals.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
My number thirty bullpen have them man a four point
seven weighted fit projection, so always a concern there. If
there was value on the first five under I would
have taken it. I think it's more tied and my
projection more tied to Cavali pitching into the six or
seventh year and keeping this one helping to keep this
one under nine, so under two eight and a half
at minus one ZH five between the Nats.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
And the JS.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
Final. Bet on your card. We are going to game
two of that doubleheader between the Reds and Guardians. Game
one getting going in a couple hours. Here is Slades
to Cony against Chase Burns. Game two. See's Gavin Williams
on the mound for the Guardians, and it doesn't look
like the Reds have confirmed a starting pitcher.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
Here.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
I'm seeing ESPN's Brady Singer in there. I'm seeing reports
of an opener or a bullpen game. I don't know
if it's an opener for Singer, but you have a
play on this total, so I imagine you have a
somewhat of an educated guest on what since he's doing
with their pitching plan tonight.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Yeah, it should be a bullpen game. Singers is on
the trade deadline or on the trade block. He was
originally slated to start today. They've been kind of weird
about moving him off of today and then not really
saying what they're doing with him. So I don't know
if they have potentially a deal in place for Brady
Singer that they're waiting on. They don't want him to
get hurt, but he was initially supposed to start today
before the doubleheader was announced.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
Now he's not so I would that leads me to
believe that.
Speaker 3 (13:54):
There's a trade in place for him, and we may
see him dealt in the next couple of days. But
expect a bullpen game for the Reds, some combination of
TJ Antone Chase Petty for about four innings of the nine.
We'll see what bullpen the Reds have left after Game one,
which Chase Burns is gonna start. Hopefully Burns can go
deep into that game and end up saving their bullpen.
(14:15):
I have done some investigations into doubleheaders, specifically running back
through our Action Labs database, just kind of seeing like
how they perform relative to the market and expectations. Game
one typically goes over by about three tenths of a
run per game. Game two plays a little bit more normally,
and I think it's because game one, once one team
(14:36):
gets out to a multi run lead, they just start
throwing the bad bullpen and an effort to save the
team is down, just starts throwing out the bad bullpen
and an effort to save their leverage relievers for game two.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
So I do think that's the thing.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
You know, I would be really careful betting game one
unders and double headers because you may not get the
pitchers that you're anticipating. Figuring into that mix. Game two,
you kind of know who is available and who is not.
And I did bet this one early because I make
this total closer to eight point three and I like
the under nine down to minus one twenty. But we
have the option if there's you know, if the Reds
(15:09):
Bullpen gets wiped out in game one, we just buy
out of this bet at no harm, no foul. But
going into game one, I think there is value on
the game two under and I'd be willing to lock
it in again to minus one twenty on the under
nine and then hopefully worst case scenario, we get minus
one oh five even money to buy out of that
if necessary. So Reds and Guardians Game two under to
(15:33):
nine at minus one twenty.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
That's five bets on today's slate from Sean Zarrillo and
a reminder that if he adds any bets to his
card throughout the day, maybe something changes based on the
game one result and Guardian's red something like that. You
can get those alerts by having the Action app, signing
up for Action Pro get Real Time Picklers Drum Sean
from Grant Nepher from Derek Cardi also our entire Action
(15:57):
Network team. Plus you can access our projections powered by
Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team. Go to Actionnetwork
dot com slash pro to get twenty dollars off the
annual price with the promo code POD twenty. Speaking of
those pro projections powered by Sean Kerner, a couple dingers
from that model that I want to throw out before
we get out of here today. Pulled up the Action app,
(16:20):
went to the pro tab, looked at our homer edges,
and the top edge for homer today is a game
we haven't talked about, Rangers Rays in Tampa. Jake Berger,
my guy, former white sock plus five seventy five to
go deep today at bet three six five. That's an
eight point one percent edge. That's the biggest home run
(16:41):
edge in our app today. Nineteen homers on the season
for Burger. He's actually homer two of his last three days.
Sometimes people might call that confirmation bias, but his homers
seemed to come in bunches, faithing Griffin jacks. Today, good
opportunity for Burger to go deep. Second one. I gave
this out yesterday, didn't hit, but he's always going to
(17:03):
be a target when a left he's on the mound.
It's Paul gold Schmidt for the Yankees plus five point
fifty at bet three sixty five, six point seven percent
edge for gold Schmidt facing another lefty today and Anthony
ka who is quickly approaching. He can't keep getting away
with this status in the White Sox rotation. So gold
Schmidt to Homer plus five fifty the last guy. Don't
(17:26):
really need a lot of a lot more to say here.
Mike Trout plus three hundred at fan duel that is
in Angels Astros facing Peter Lambert today. Trout's actually in
quite the home run drought right now. I think he's gone.
It was July eighth was his last time homewer, and it's
been like thirteen or fourteen games his longest stretch without
homering of the season, or close to it. He had
(17:49):
won back in April that was close to it as well.
But Trout plus three hundred the pro projection is actually
like quite a few Angels to go deep. Not a
believer in Peter Lambert. Joe Adele is right behind him
at plus four fifty. Couple others down the list as well.
But the three that I like, the three that pro
(18:10):
likes and pro likes that I generally like it Burger,
Goldschmidt and Trout to go deep tonight.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
Yeah, the the Anthony K comment.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
First off, Anthony K from stony Brook, New York, fellow
Long Islander, went to Wardhelville High School. Always have to
shout out my Long Island Major leaguers. But from a
betting perspective, having put money on Anthony and K several
times of this season, it is an experience and it
is not the best experience. There's a lot of three
two counts that you're sweating out. And that's what I
mean in regards to like guys who are efficient in
(18:39):
terms of getting through hitters versus guys who are sloppy
in getting through hitters. It's the pitchers who get to
the two strike counts and then the batter fouls off
like five pitches in a row, and then they throw
a ball, then another foul, then another ball, and then
suddenly went from one to two to three to two
and at eleven pitch at bat and then you're just
(19:00):
playing coin flips on the three two counts from there,
And I do feel like Anthony Ka wins a lot
of those coin flips in three two or at least
as one more of them lately, I don't think it's
possible to keep winning those forever. So three two count luck,
I think is something that could potentially be looked into.
For pitchers, I wonder if there is some sort of
like regression stat there for how they perform in full
(19:21):
counts and hitters how they perform in full counts over time,
because I do just tend to notice like a lot
of these a lot of these sweats and a lot
of these games just come down to oftentimes your luck
in three two counts.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
So curious to look into that.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
Obviously we look at like runners in scoring position, luck
and other things of that nature. I don't really know
if we look at how teams perform relatively game to
game and three two luck and how that affects performance.
So that's something I'm going to look into more just
an anecdotal observation. The more I watch baseball games, the
three two counts really seem to swing things, and they
seem to be turning points constantly.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
One stat to illustrate how frustrating it can be to
try to bet on. Anthony k leads the majors and
hit by pitches bye by five over the next highest
hit by pitch pitcher. He's hit nineteen batters this year.
Number two is Spencer Raghetty at fourteen. So yeah, you
talk about those three two three two pitches not being
(20:19):
able to put guys away, try getting to an O
two account and being like he's about to breach through
this inning. And then he hits a guy. No, no real,
no sides or totals. Garrett Cole against Anthony Kate tonight.
But maybe Goldschmidt can go deep. Maybe he hits a
home run instead of gets hit today. That'll be nice.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
Holes look really good in his last couple starts. He
seems like he's getting back to full health.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
All right, that's gonna do it for today's episode of
Payoff Pitch. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you'd
like to tail some of the bets from today's episode,
look for the quick slip links in the episode description.
Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network app. Also,
please leave us a five star rating interview wherever you
listen to the podcast. We'll be back on Friday with
another episode. For Shanzaillo. I'm Colin Richard. Thanks so much
(21:04):
for listening to Payoff Pitch Action Networks Major League Baseball
Betting Podcast. Good luck with all your bets.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Hurking his crowd on his feet, what a trigger. No
one watch ja
No crying and this game is underway. The line up
it is Springs offering Josh the bit out sign.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos who
will be a home run.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And hello to time you talk about a roll at
the dice. This is it. Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch. Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting podcast.
It is Tuesday, July twenty eighth, I com Witchurch joined
by Action Network Senior MLB analyst Sean Zarillo to break
down the best bets for this Tuesday MLB slate. Another
(00:56):
busy Tuesday. We have a double header today. Guardians and
Reds got rained out, so early game there one forty
Eastern Star, everything else under the lights tonight. We'll keep
it quick and dirty, straightforward for you here tonight. Sean's
got a couple bets. I'll give out some dingers from
our pro projections at the end. No grant need for today,
as we usually have on Dinger Tuesday, but we'll look
(01:18):
at a couple Dinger bets that are pro projections, like
at the end of the show. So Sean, let's start
us off with our best bets and you are going
to the Red Sox Athletics game in Sacramento. Jake Bennett
against gauge jumping. This one a couple intriguing young arms.
(01:41):
I was looking at the standings right before we log down.
The A's have the worst run differential in baseball. I
knew that they had gone in the tank. I didn't
realize they had been worse than like the Rockies. The
gauge jump one of their more intriguing young arms. And
so where are you going with this one today?
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Yeah, he's led to aos at some point this year.
I guess everybody seemingly has led to aos at some
point this year, as the Rangers have finally overtaken by
a couple games of the Mariners. But in terms of
this matchup, like both of these young lefties, they get
to their or they have different profiles in terms of
their effectiveness. Bennett is the location and the command guy
one to fifteen location plus but just the ninety two
(02:20):
stuff plus figure. But what he does do is generate
relatively weak contact relative to that stuff profile, much more
like a Perker Messik, where you don't see you see
the eleade command, you don't see the elite stuff. On paper,
but in terms of how it plays out and generating
weak contact, seemingly plays a little bit better than the
stuff models. But that said, he's still overachieved this year
two point five eight ERA Sierra north of four point
(02:44):
h seven, so nearly a run and a half gap
between his actual results and his expected results as underlying indicators.
Eighteen percent strikeout rate just not going to be able
to maintain a sub three ERA when you don't strike
out that many guys gage up.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
On the other and is the stuff guy.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
He has a one to ten stuff plus rating, but
a ninety nine location plus rating four point four ERA
aligns with his expected ERA of four point two, So
I think both of these guys are closer to league
average starters. I have them ranked seventieth and seventy second
right now, respectively. Fairly comparable in terms of the starting
pitching matchup, just as I said, they'd get to their
(03:22):
results in different ways.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
Red Sox the better lineup.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
With both Shay Langliers and Nick Kurtz currently on the
IL for the Athletics, seemingly Langliers probably done for the year.
We'll see if Kurtz ends up coming back with the
A's struggling so mightily and having nothing to play for
seemingly in the second half Red Sox bullpen advantage number
three versus number twenty four bullpen. But all of that said,
(03:46):
this number was just too big for me. At plus
one thirty five last night, I make this game plus
one twelve for the Athletics. I would bet them down
to plus one twenty two. Just thought this line was
a little bit far off from where markets should be
in frankly, the A's the Rockies, they're starting to get
that extra bad team tax as we get into the
(04:07):
dog days is summer now, the Rockies in that series
against the Brewers, that first game against the Brewers, the Rockies,
I made them about plus two hundred. They shot up
and closed all the way at like plus two fifty
in that first game of the series against the Brewers
that they ended up winning, I believe three one or
three two. So definitely keep an eye on these bad teams.
You are closer to game time, closer to first pitch,
(04:29):
just getting a little extra tax in terms of the favorite.
And if you buy back on the underdog, you're actually
getting a pretty decent price point. I've actually looked into this.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Again.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
Part of my article I'm going to have coming out
on CLV the teams who the market moves the biggest
to get so that the sides that the market moves
most aggressively against. Obviously, if you bet those sides at
their opening number, you would not be doing well.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
But if you bet.
Speaker 3 (04:55):
Those biggest movers against the closing line, you could actually
be a break even better. Just because there's so much
tax on the favorite, You're getting such a ridiculous price
on these underdogs that you can just kind of pick
and choose them and potentially be profitable just playing those
gigantic dogs that the line has moved aggressively against closer
to game time. So just worth keeping in mind you
(05:16):
do you see a little extra tax on these bad teams.
I thought we sad some overnight here though, as opposed
to closer to game time, and it seems like the
market has moved a little bit in our direction.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Saw one of those gigantic underdogs cash last night. I
think Marlins were one of the biggest underdogs the season
last night, coming in with their twelve game losing streak
against Sack Wheeler. Of course, the Marlins won eight to seven.
In a walk off in that one. All right, let's
move on to your other You have one other side,
(05:46):
and you have a total in this game as well.
One of the better teams in baseball against one of
the worst teams in baseball. Brewers, Giants, Logan Henderson, Land
and Roope again a side and a total for you
in this one.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
Yeah, Brewers under in this matchup, I make the Brewers
about minus one sixty, and I make the total about
six point nine, so the Brewers to minus one fifty,
and then the under seven and a half to about
minus one twenty minus one eighteen. Just gave Logan Henderson
a couple of starts off the aisle to make sure
everything was right. He looks like he did prior to
(06:22):
the ile stint. I think he's just been one of
the best pitchers in baseball this season, and the replacement
that he will be essentially for Brandon Woodruff if he
is healthy come playoff time for the Brewers is as
I said, sufficient for them to go up against the
team like the Dodgers. If you give me miss Rowski
and Henderson and Kyle Earrison, I'm ready to roll in
a five game series, hopefully against the Dodgers. Maybe not
a seven game series with the Dodgers pitching dep would
(06:44):
love a Milwaukee versus LA five game series though for
the Brewers potential upset chances after getting swept in four
last year, But love Logan Henderson. Thirty two percent strike
out rate, five percent walk rate, seventy percent first pitch
strike rate, just consistently gets ahead of hitters. Is not
sloppy in terms of the ball rate, just very efficient
in terms of getting through hitters. Has an elite change
(07:07):
up thirty eight percent with rate on his change up
has to be one of the best in baseball, aside
from schoobl and Chris Sanchez.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
So really like Logan Henderson quite a bit.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Landon Roupe has kind of fallen off a little bit
relative to where he was earlier in the year. His
indicators still in the mid threes closer to four. Has
a high ground ball rate, which you don't necessarily need
at Oracle Park, but it helps anywhere you go. The
problem is that his walk rate has climbed up near
ten percent of late, and as the walks continue to
(07:37):
pile up, he's gotten shelled a little bit more frequently.
Six walks in two and two thirds in a blow
up against the Arizona Diamondbacks. When the command waivers roupe,
he tends to fall apart, but his last three starts,
averaging about six innings and one and a half runs
over those three and seems like he's finally gotten it back.
(07:58):
I think maybe a guy have to investigate from a
home road splits perspective. And then also the Giants as
well don't have the best defense, and I do think
guys can tighten up when pitching in front of bad
defenses and try to get the strikeouts and ended up
walking a few more hitters just being a little bit
more careful nibbling around the zone. So all of that said,
prefer the Brewers starting pitcher, Prefer the Brewers bullpen.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Prefer the Brewers.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
Line up both offensively and defensively, and the base running
make them about minus one sixty other road here taking
them minus one fifty, and then the under seven and
a half to minus one eighteen between.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
The Brewers and the Giants. Worth noting.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
You know, Oracle Park wind is always blowing out if
you're somebody who analyzes like win weather for these ballparks
has virtually the wind has virtually no effect at Oracle Park.
It's purely the temperature. So when you get to these
night games where it's always going to be cool in
San Francisco, it's just tougher for the ball to carry,
(08:57):
tougher for the ball to fly. When you get the
day games there on, you know, the afternoon games right
before the getaway day or the Sunday afternoon games, that's
when the ball carries at this park. So if you
notice a pattern in terms of whether I bet overs
or unders in Oracle, it tends to be unders in
night games and then overs and day games.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Sixty four degrees projected first pitch weather temperature in San
Francisco tonight. Yeah, this is one of those. I was
looking at the lines this morning and I was like, man,
it almost felt like a trap. Brewis I feel like
the Brewers should be bigger favorites than this, But you
know the model, the model agrees. It makes me feel good, obviously.
The Giants three nothing win last night, Tyler Molly pulled
(09:39):
one out of his ass somehow.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
There.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
So Brewers and under for you in San Francisco tonight.
Speaking of weather, a couple of games at risk today
looks like as you know Red's guardians got rained out
last night doubleheader. Today looks like Braves Mets have a
rain risk tonight in New York and then Blue Jays
Nationals where we will go to next. My my Max
(10:07):
Strews are fade did not go well last night. He
was getting hit. It was very very very lucky to
get out of that game the way he did. Thought
there was gonna be runs galore in that one. I
think it ended three to two or four to three,
something like that. But you know, we move on. There
is a rain risk tonight in d C, as I mentioned,
(10:30):
But you like a total in this one, which is
Shane Bieber against Kate Cavali tonight in DC.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
Yeah, hopefully if it rains it bails us out of
like a four to three game in the fifth inning
or five milhing game in the fifth inning. Here, because
I do have the under under nine between the Nationals
and Eyj's, I like it down to eight and a
half though at minus one oh five I make this
closer to eight point two. Should mention that that Mets game,
the over that I had last night got sweaty because
of the rain. It was three to three now of
the fifth Mets d bases loaded, two out, and the
(10:58):
Mets announcers are like, all right, just get a here,
and it's an official game and we could call this thing.
And Jared Young thankfully struck out on three pitches looking
with the bases loaded, never took the bat off of
his shoulder. Yeah, I would have absolutely dreaded that what
looked like a shore over eight and a half ended
up getting there that had been suspended and then pushed
(11:18):
or something like that. That's just the way the year
has gone. Ultimately and thankfully got to the window. But
between Kay Cavali and Shane Bieber, I do like this
under Bieber was terrible when he first came back. His
last two starts, he's been much better and the velocities
come back a little bit more on his pitches. I
just think Shane Bieber came back a little bit prematurely.
Now he looks a little bit healthier. But Kay Gabally
(11:41):
has been borderline elite, I mean, one of the best
pitchers in baseball over the past run thirty two percent
strikeout minus walk in his last five starts, expected FIP
of two over that same span. Shane Bieber I believe
the expected Phip has gone down sub four in each
of his past two starts to feeling a little bit
better about what he's doing. The J's offense virtually no power,
(12:04):
all contact, but no power. Also remained one of the
best defensive teams in baseball, so where they could steal
some hits from these Nationals. The Nationals elite power, but
bad play, discipline, and bad contact. So as long as
Shane Bieber is not serving up gopher balls like he
was earlier in the year, I do like this game
to stay under provided also the Nationals bullpen does not
(12:24):
bullow things up late, but Cavali is typically able to
pitch deep enough into these games that that's not enough
of a concern.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
Nationals.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
My number thirty bullpen have them man a four point
seven weighted fit projection, so always a concern there. If
there was value on the first five under I would
have taken it. I think it's more tied and my
projection more tied to Cavali pitching into the six or
seventh year and keeping this one helping to keep this
one under nine, so under two eight and a half
at minus one ZH five between the Nats.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
And the JS.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
Final. Bet on your card. We are going to game
two of that doubleheader between the Reds and Guardians. Game
one getting going in a couple hours. Here is Slades
to Cony against Chase Burns. Game two. See's Gavin Williams
on the mound for the Guardians, and it doesn't look
like the Reds have confirmed a starting pitcher.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
Here.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
I'm seeing ESPN's Brady Singer in there. I'm seeing reports
of an opener or a bullpen game. I don't know
if it's an opener for Singer, but you have a
play on this total, so I imagine you have a
somewhat of an educated guest on what since he's doing
with their pitching plan tonight.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Yeah, it should be a bullpen game. Singers is on
the trade deadline or on the trade block. He was
originally slated to start today. They've been kind of weird
about moving him off of today and then not really
saying what they're doing with him. So I don't know
if they have potentially a deal in place for Brady
Singer that they're waiting on. They don't want him to
get hurt, but he was initially supposed to start today
before the doubleheader was announced.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
Now he's not so I would that leads me to
believe that.
Speaker 3 (13:54):
There's a trade in place for him, and we may
see him dealt in the next couple of days. But
expect a bullpen game for the Reds, some combination of
TJ Antone Chase Petty for about four innings of the nine.
We'll see what bullpen the Reds have left after Game one,
which Chase Burns is gonna start. Hopefully Burns can go
deep into that game and end up saving their bullpen.
(14:15):
I have done some investigations into doubleheaders, specifically running back
through our Action Labs database, just kind of seeing like
how they perform relative to the market and expectations. Game
one typically goes over by about three tenths of a
run per game. Game two plays a little bit more normally,
and I think it's because game one, once one team
(14:36):
gets out to a multi run lead, they just start
throwing the bad bullpen and an effort to save the
team is down, just starts throwing out the bad bullpen
and an effort to save their leverage relievers for game two.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
So I do think that's the thing.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
You know, I would be really careful betting game one
unders and double headers because you may not get the
pitchers that you're anticipating. Figuring into that mix. Game two,
you kind of know who is available and who is not.
And I did bet this one early because I make
this total closer to eight point three and I like
the under nine down to minus one twenty. But we
have the option if there's you know, if the Reds
(15:09):
Bullpen gets wiped out in game one, we just buy
out of this bet at no harm, no foul. But
going into game one, I think there is value on
the game two under and I'd be willing to lock
it in again to minus one twenty on the under
nine and then hopefully worst case scenario, we get minus
one oh five even money to buy out of that
if necessary. So Reds and Guardians Game two under to
(15:33):
nine at minus one twenty.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
That's five bets on today's slate from Sean Zarrillo and
a reminder that if he adds any bets to his
card throughout the day, maybe something changes based on the
game one result and Guardian's red something like that. You
can get those alerts by having the Action app, signing
up for Action Pro get Real Time Picklers Drum Sean
from Grant Nepher from Derek Cardi also our entire Action
(15:57):
Network team. Plus you can access our projections powered by
Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team. Go to Actionnetwork
dot com slash pro to get twenty dollars off the
annual price with the promo code POD twenty. Speaking of
those pro projections powered by Sean Kerner, a couple dingers
from that model that I want to throw out before
we get out of here today. Pulled up the Action app,
(16:20):
went to the pro tab, looked at our homer edges,
and the top edge for homer today is a game
we haven't talked about, Rangers Rays in Tampa. Jake Berger,
my guy, former white sock plus five seventy five to
go deep today at bet three six five. That's an
eight point one percent edge. That's the biggest home run
(16:41):
edge in our app today. Nineteen homers on the season
for Burger. He's actually homer two of his last three days.
Sometimes people might call that confirmation bias, but his homers
seemed to come in bunches, faithing Griffin jacks. Today, good
opportunity for Burger to go deep. Second one. I gave
this out yesterday, didn't hit, but he's always going to
(17:03):
be a target when a left he's on the mound.
It's Paul gold Schmidt for the Yankees plus five point
fifty at bet three sixty five, six point seven percent
edge for gold Schmidt facing another lefty today and Anthony
ka who is quickly approaching. He can't keep getting away
with this status in the White Sox rotation. So gold
Schmidt to Homer plus five fifty the last guy. Don't
(17:26):
really need a lot of a lot more to say here.
Mike Trout plus three hundred at fan duel that is
in Angels Astros facing Peter Lambert today. Trout's actually in
quite the home run drought right now. I think he's gone.
It was July eighth was his last time homewer, and it's
been like thirteen or fourteen games his longest stretch without
homering of the season, or close to it. He had
(17:49):
won back in April that was close to it as well.
But Trout plus three hundred the pro projection is actually
like quite a few Angels to go deep. Not a
believer in Peter Lambert. Joe Adele is right behind him
at plus four fifty. Couple others down the list as well.
But the three that I like, the three that pro
(18:10):
likes and pro likes that I generally like it Burger,
Goldschmidt and Trout to go deep tonight.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
Yeah, the the Anthony K comment.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
First off, Anthony K from stony Brook, New York, fellow
Long Islander, went to Wardhelville High School. Always have to
shout out my Long Island Major leaguers. But from a
betting perspective, having put money on Anthony and K several
times of this season, it is an experience and it
is not the best experience. There's a lot of three
two counts that you're sweating out. And that's what I
mean in regards to like guys who are efficient in
(18:39):
terms of getting through hitters versus guys who are sloppy
in getting through hitters. It's the pitchers who get to
the two strike counts and then the batter fouls off
like five pitches in a row, and then they throw
a ball, then another foul, then another ball, and then
suddenly went from one to two to three to two
and at eleven pitch at bat and then you're just
(19:00):
playing coin flips on the three two counts from there,
And I do feel like Anthony Ka wins a lot
of those coin flips in three two or at least
as one more of them lately, I don't think it's
possible to keep winning those forever. So three two count luck,
I think is something that could potentially be looked into.
For pitchers, I wonder if there is some sort of
like regression stat there for how they perform in full
(19:21):
counts and hitters how they perform in full counts over time,
because I do just tend to notice like a lot
of these a lot of these sweats and a lot
of these games just come down to oftentimes your luck
in three two counts.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
So curious to look into that.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
Obviously we look at like runners in scoring position, luck
and other things of that nature. I don't really know
if we look at how teams perform relatively game to
game and three two luck and how that affects performance.
So that's something I'm going to look into more just
an anecdotal observation. The more I watch baseball games, the
three two counts really seem to swing things, and they
seem to be turning points constantly.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
One stat to illustrate how frustrating it can be to
try to bet on. Anthony k leads the majors and
hit by pitches bye by five over the next highest
hit by pitch pitcher. He's hit nineteen batters this year.
Number two is Spencer Raghetty at fourteen. So yeah, you
talk about those three two three two pitches not being
(20:19):
able to put guys away, try getting to an O
two account and being like he's about to breach through
this inning. And then he hits a guy. No, no real,
no sides or totals. Garrett Cole against Anthony Kate tonight.
But maybe Goldschmidt can go deep. Maybe he hits a
home run instead of gets hit today. That'll be nice.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
Holes look really good in his last couple starts. He
seems like he's getting back to full health.
Speaker 2 (20:42):
All right, that's gonna do it for today's episode of
Payoff Pitch. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you'd
like to tail some of the bets from today's episode,
look for the quick slip links in the episode description.
Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network app. Also,
please leave us a five star rating interview wherever you
listen to the podcast. We'll be back on Friday with
another episode. For Shanzaillo. I'm Colin Richard. Thanks so much
(21:04):
for listening to Payoff Pitch Action Networks Major League Baseball
Betting Podcast. Good luck with all your bets.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Hurking his crowd on his feet, what a trigger. No
one watch ja
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