July 6, 2026 • 17 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting expert Sean Zerillo is here to break down the Monday's MLB slate. Sean dives into sides and totals out west today. Tune in to hear his top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page so you don't miss our live shows every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
1 - ASTROS/NATS
4- METS/BRAVES
8 - BLUE JAYS/GIANTS
12 - LEANS
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Faithball, no crying, and this game is underway. In the
lines up it is springetofering.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Josh the bit out signed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep leftfield by Castianos. It
will be a home run.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Hello, good time you talk about a roll of the dice.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the payoff pitch.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Hello them up in Payoff Pitch Action Works Major League
Baseball Betting Podcast. I'm Sean Zerrilla jooined by no to today,
just myself here to break down my favorite bets on Mondays.
I believe eight or nine game Major League Baseball Slate.
With this new season underway, we're looking for those five
star reviews. Will pick some of our favorites and send
out some action swag. So say whatever you want as
(00:53):
long as it's five stars for a chance to win
some Action Network merch. Call Church out today. So I
am here flying solo, going to talk about three of
my favorite games on today's slate. Maybe i'llude to some
other bets I'm keeping an eye on as well. Also
going to show you guys the Bartolo Tool. If you're
on YouTube, you can see producer Eddie in the background
(01:15):
going through some of the games that I'm discussing on
today's slate. We're going to start inserting these bids, probably
into opening pitch as well, so that you can more
visually see what I'm discussing as I'm going through my
breakdowns on these matchups. But we're going to begin with
the Astros and Washington Nationals because I've got two games,
two bets on this game. I like both the side
(01:37):
and the total. Now, the Nationals money line or the
Astra's money line, I should say, once you have Nationals
and Astras, they kind of turn into a bit of
a tongue twist for one another. But the Astro's money
line I bet last night at about plus one sixteen. I
made it even money. It came down to a round
even money. I like it to plus one to eight.
So not a ton of value slash no value left
(01:57):
necessarily in that Astra's money line, and if it does
come up, it's likely due to a lineup change at
some point, So good COLB there. COLV though, has not
been indicative of success thus far for us. In July,
I've beaten the closing total on nine overs and I'm
zero to nine on all of those bets. Each of
those has moved by a half around in my direction.
(02:18):
Just been absolutely crippling to start the month of July.
But I do like the over in this matchup as well.
I make this total about ten point seven. I'd make
it over eleven on a weather neutral day. Wind actually
blowing in today at Nationals Park going to be in
the mid eighties, so you know, sort of offsetting the temperatures,
but the wind blowing in there. It is one of
the more wind receptive parks in the Majors though, and
(02:40):
the wind patterns there do suggest that it could take
away about half a run quarter of a run from
this game. Specifically, two really bad starting pitchers kind of
neutralize each other, Mike Burrows. Presumably we will be getting
Miles Michael Lists for the bulk of the game for
the Nationals. He may not start, they may replace him
with an owner opener. But these among my bottom fifty
(03:02):
or so starting pitchers out of two hundred pitchers. I
have Michaelis at one forty five. I have Burrows at
one sixty six. Not a huge gap between them. But
where the real differential comes in in this game is
the bullpens. I have the Nationals ranked as my number
thirty bullpen. I have the Astros ranked I believe eleventh.
They've gotten a lot better as the season has gone on.
(03:22):
I had that team ranked as probably a bottom five
bullpen throughout much of April. May Now that Josh Haters
back in the fold, they have other guys pitching a
little bit better. I certainly like the Astros bullpen a
lot more than it did earlier in the year. The
Nationals bullpen, however, still no swing and miss in there,
still walking, a lot of guys remain very vulnerable late
in games, have a couple of guys who should be
(03:44):
down today as well. So don't like either starting pitcher
much prefer the Astros bullpen, and I also slightly prefer
the Astros lineup as well. I project them about four
points better in terms of WRC plus. The Nationals great
out better for power and contact, the Astros great out
better for plate discipline and swing selectivity and actually driving
(04:08):
the right pitches. Two bad teams in terms of base
running and defense. Those sort of neutralize each other as well.
So putting it all together again, I make the Astros
about even money. I let them down to plus one
oh eight. I have the total at ten point seven.
I would make that closer to eleven point two on
a weather neutral day, but I still like the over
ten here up to about minus one point fifteen, and
(04:31):
that is my two bets on Astros and Nationals. One
of my two over bets on today's slate spoof us
to the Mets in the Braves, concluding, I believe a
four game set out in Atlanta today, Mets with an
embarrassing loss on Saturday, ended up bouncing back yesterday, but
nearly blue a seven or on ninth inning leak. Because
(04:53):
even my wins this year have been absolutely pulling teeth.
I can't believe the Braves managed to get the winning
run to second base in the bottom of the ninth inning.
Absolutely tragic. Model tried to get me to back the
bets today, I said, absolutely no way. I manually moved
that line a little bit further in downgrading their bullpen
relative to where I have it, because this bullpen just
(05:15):
can't get outs out. My model weighted fit for this
bullpen actually ranks it as a better bullpen than the Braves.
I do not disagree or I do not agree with
that assessment completely, you know, factoring in more in season
data as opposed to preseason projecting data, I think I
have it a little bit more where I want it
at this point, constantly rolling in and waiting in more
(05:35):
in season data as we go along here, and we're
now at the midpoint of the twenty twenty sixth season.
But what I do like and what I do think
has been underrated and can continue to produce is the
Mets offense. I think they went through a stretch right
after they got Lindor back where they weren't hitting. Despite
the fact that I project them so highly, They've been
producing runs, especially the last couple of days, and they
continue to rank as one of the best offenses in
(05:57):
my model, I believe the best offense on today slate.
It's where I have them protected around a one to
twenty WRC plus elite contact or elite power and I
grades with very good contact as well, which you know,
really only the daughters the Nationals two degree, but they
don't necessarily have the swing decisions. So, as I've said before,
on pods, you know, having the ability to drive the ball,
(06:20):
select the right pitches to drive, but then also make
contact consistently enough that you are producing is kind of
a rare combination of skills. The Daughters have it, the
Mets seemingly have it. The Mets are just missing the
other pieces around it. And one of the things they're
missing is the contributions they expected to get for Peretti
Peralta this season. Because Peralta ranking is my SP one
to eleven, he probably would have been a top thirty,
(06:43):
if not a top forty starter last season. Ranald the
Lopez my SP one thirty nine, so I do rate
him slightly worse then I rate Peralta. He has a
three to three y array expected fit before five expect
the ARRA of four six ERA four to four, So
ran All the Lopez has outperformed He's underlying cators by
about a full run. Peralta has underpitched his indicators by
(07:04):
about a half a run. He's expected fipsierra closer to
four to one four to two, his actual ERA sitting
at four to eight, so he's arguably been unlucky. Raynaldo
Lip has arguably been lucky to this point of the season.
Braves a better bullpen give the Mets the sled offensive
edge with a Kunya remaining out. But what I do
like here is the over I bet over eight and
(07:26):
a half at about minus one twelve. I like over
nine to minus one oh five even minus won ten
for tonight's game gonna be about mid eighties temperature, no
major impact in terms of my total. Didn't really move
this around for weather adjustment would move it down probably
if anything. But I make this total again nine point three,
(07:47):
so over nine to minus one oh five between the
Mets and the Braves. Could also look at it first
five over there as well. Considering my view of these
two starting pitchers relative to the bullpens, I think these
bullpens are better, much better than these two starting pitchers are. Then, lastly,
for today's slate, very small slate for me, Blue Jays
(08:08):
and Giants under eight, I took it minus one fourteen.
I like that at seven and a half down to
minus one oh eight. This is going to be an
unseasonably cold night in San Francisco. Temperature is going to
be in the low sixties, if not the high fifties
during a game on July seventh. I know San Francisco
is kind of a climate unto itself out there, very
(08:30):
much as Buffalo is an upstate New York a climate
unto itself when it starts snowing in September. So San
Francisco tonight going to be very chilly, and even though
the wind is blowing out, which it typically is in
that park, the temperatures should knock down the expected run
scoring environment. I make this total I believe seven point one.
(08:50):
On a weather neutral day, I would have this closer
to seven point six seven point seven. But for tonight's game,
I like the under eight down seven and a half
at minus one oh five. Loganup Kevin Gausman. Both have
been hit hard in the individual starts of late. You know,
you look at the box scorers, you see Gossman get
(09:10):
lit up by the Rangers six runs, ten hits in
five innings.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Before that, he got lit up by the Cubs.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
Rupe coming off of his start where he got lit
up by the Diamondbacks. But I do think the weather
is going to help both maintain effectiveness and pitch to
their effectiveness tonight Roupe fifty percent ground ball rate. I
believe Goussman back to a form where you know, Gusman's
kind of bounced around in recent years. There was a
(09:37):
year where he saw the shrike at minus walk great decline.
I believe it was two or three years ago, ended
up bouncing back last year. The numbers, they'll say this
is a number two starter, three seventy five expected fit
three seven, Sierra earray of four point two. I think
largely due to that one blow up sort of masking
how effective he's been on a start to start basis Rupe,
(09:58):
as I said, been very volatile of late well, but
getting back to home or he's pitched much better I
think should be beneficial for him. Both these guys rate
really highly in stuff models as well, which I tend
to trust when guys are going through a rough stretch
of area and still looking under the hood seeing whether
the pitch modeling metrics are sort of aligning with previous expectations,
(10:18):
making sure that you know there's no velocity dip or
stuff dip, you know, big decline in movement or anything
like that to that point, and it's worth noting. I
believe it was codify Baseball who might have put it
on Twitter.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
Last week.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
We've discussed this at link with Paul Skeins. He got
hit hard in his last start. Again, I think the
last part we had here last Tuesday we discussed Paul
Skein's Paul Skins spin rate on his four seam fastball
has virtually declined on every single start. That's one of
the best indicators that a pitcher is injured. Seeing that
spin rate on his foreseen fastball continuing to dip as
(10:51):
we go along in the season, I think is a
major red flag for Paul Skeins. I say that to
say that I don't see similar concerns with Kevin Gausman
or Route, So I think both of these guys are fine.
They've just gotten hit hard individually in two of their
last five starts each tonight. I make this total around seven,
and I like the under seven and a half to
minus one to eight. Major defensive edge for the Jays
(11:13):
in this matchup throughout this series. Jay's one of my
best defensive teams, the Giants one of my worst. So
a major defensive edge for the Blue Jays in this series.
And when you have two guys who are going to
be allowing balls in play, like Roupe and like Gaussman,
that is a major edge for the Toronto defense. So again,
just to recap, the Astros to even money and the
(11:37):
over nine and a half to ten at minus one
fifteen in that matchup, the Mets and Braves over eight
and a half to nine at minus one oh five.
Even minus one to ten would be fine, and then
Toronto and San Francisco under eight to seven and a
half at minus one oh eight. Those are the bets
I've actually placed for today's slate. Just want to briefly highlight,
(11:58):
briefly highlight the other bets that are close to being
in range on today's slate. I need to re upload
odds into the tool because it seems like it's being
a little funky at the moment. But the Phillies and
Royals over eight is sitting. I have this at eight
point five. We don't have We do have umpire information,
(12:19):
but I need lineups to confirm. This afternoon, this is
the final game in Kansas City between these teams. Chris
Sanchez on the mound for the Phillies. We always discuss
how Sanchez is better at home than he is on
the road splits This year expected FIP strike out minus
walk right about neutral in both venues, around a two
to seventy five expected fit for Sanchez, whether at home
(12:41):
or on the road. So I don't think you can necessarily,
like manually dock him, but it is worth noting he
does tend to get hit harder on the road than
he does at home. The underlying indicators say he should
be about the same, but for whatever reason, those runs
seem to cash in more frequently. And that's not something
that's just happened this year. If you go to past years,
there is a gap in his splits home versus roads.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
So keep an eye on the Phillies lineups.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
If you got over eight at minus one oh five,
I would probably consider placing a bet there, but want
lineups to confirm and come out this afternoon before I
lock anything in, because the afternoon lineup is always going
to be a little bit goofier than night lineups. For
night slates, I think we can project out lineups for
the rest of the slate a little bit more readily.
The other bet I was considering taking a look at
(13:27):
was Brewers and Cardinals over eight as well. That's around
minus one oh five. I make that eight point four.
I like Shane Rohan, Dustin May has gotten hit really
hard in his last two starts. Made it through two
innings in Kansas City, gave up six runs, didn't make
it out of the first inning against the Braves, gave
up five runs there had the start before that was
(13:50):
his near no hitter against the San Diego Padres. So
very volatile for Dustin May in terms of his recent performances.
Love the Brewers Bullpen, love Shane Rohan much more than market. Well,
I guess not much more of the market anymore. I
was betting on Drohan for a while. I haven't shown
value on the Brewers and it starts the past two
or three starts. But despite the fact that I like Drohan,
(14:13):
I love the Brewers Bulpin, I still make this total
about eight point four. So I want to see lineups here.
I want to see the umpire before deciding whether to
fire on anything in that game. But I would lean
over in that matchup, and I would lean slightly under
the ten and a half between the Dodgers and Rockies
another game where I would want to see umpires. Very
difficult for me to pull the trigger on a matchup
(14:34):
involving Eric Klaower and Kyle Frielan. But I make this
total about ten point one five. I want to see
umpires here. I want to confirm weather later in the
day because I do downgrade this offensive environment slightly going
to be in the low seventies one blowing out at
Daughter Stadium, but going to be in the low seventies
can I we'll get into the sixties by later in
the game. Just two pictures who I project you know
(14:55):
among my worst starting pitchers lower right near the bottom
of my board at SP one ninety seven free landed
sp one. So difficult guys to back with your money.
But I do think this total just a touch high
for Dodger Stadium. You generally don't see totals in the
double digits at Dodger Stadium unless the pitchers are this bad,
and tonight they are this bad. But I lean under
(15:16):
in that game between the Dodgers and Rockies ten and
a half, I would want even money currently two about
minus one oh five, and we'll see if I adjusted
off of the umpires beyond that. Before we get out
of here, make sure to check out the deal that
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(15:37):
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(16:01):
and that'll do it for today's episode of Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Thank you for tuning in.
Speaker 3 (16:03):
If you'd like to tell some of the bets that
we discussed on today's episode, make sure to look for
the quick sliplink both in the podcast and video description,
or visit actiontwork dot com slash Bet now. Don't forget
to download the free or word winning Action Work Gap
and leave us at five star rating and review wherever
you listen to the podcast for a chance to win
some Action Network swag. Check out our new AI quick
(16:24):
slip bottom X. Just tag a playbook at playbook and
tell it to grab whatever bets you're looking for it
to create a quick sliplink for you in a matter
of seconds. We'll be back tomorrow with another episode of
Payoff Pitch. For now check out my projections in opening
pitch for today's late Using my bar tole tool, you
can also find that both in the Action Work Gap,
on our Action pro Tools, in our Projections tabs, or
(16:45):
on the Action Network Projections Hub online.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
I'm Sean Zerilla.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
Thank you for tuning in and listening to Monday's episode
of Payoff Pitch, Action Networks Majors at Baseball Betting Podcast.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
Good luck, follow your bets you see back here? Look
at his crowd on his free what trigger?
Speaker 3 (17:13):
No one wants to leave
Faithball, no crying, and this game is underway. In the
lines up it is springetofering.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Josh the bit out signed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep leftfield by Castianos. It
will be a home run.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Hello, good time you talk about a roll of the dice.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the payoff pitch.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Hello them up in Payoff Pitch Action Works Major League
Baseball Betting Podcast. I'm Sean Zerrilla jooined by no to today,
just myself here to break down my favorite bets on Mondays.
I believe eight or nine game Major League Baseball Slate.
With this new season underway, we're looking for those five
star reviews. Will pick some of our favorites and send
out some action swag. So say whatever you want as
(00:53):
long as it's five stars for a chance to win
some Action Network merch. Call Church out today. So I
am here flying solo, going to talk about three of
my favorite games on today's slate. Maybe i'llude to some
other bets I'm keeping an eye on as well. Also
going to show you guys the Bartolo Tool. If you're
on YouTube, you can see producer Eddie in the background
(01:15):
going through some of the games that I'm discussing on
today's slate. We're going to start inserting these bids, probably
into opening pitch as well, so that you can more
visually see what I'm discussing as I'm going through my
breakdowns on these matchups. But we're going to begin with
the Astros and Washington Nationals because I've got two games,
two bets on this game. I like both the side
(01:37):
and the total. Now, the Nationals money line or the
Astra's money line, I should say, once you have Nationals
and Astras, they kind of turn into a bit of
a tongue twist for one another. But the Astro's money
line I bet last night at about plus one sixteen. I
made it even money. It came down to a round
even money. I like it to plus one to eight.
So not a ton of value slash no value left
(01:57):
necessarily in that Astra's money line, and if it does
come up, it's likely due to a lineup change at
some point, So good COLB there. COLV though, has not
been indicative of success thus far for us. In July,
I've beaten the closing total on nine overs and I'm
zero to nine on all of those bets. Each of
those has moved by a half around in my direction.
(02:18):
Just been absolutely crippling to start the month of July.
But I do like the over in this matchup as well.
I make this total about ten point seven. I'd make
it over eleven on a weather neutral day. Wind actually
blowing in today at Nationals Park going to be in
the mid eighties, so you know, sort of offsetting the temperatures,
but the wind blowing in there. It is one of
the more wind receptive parks in the Majors though, and
(02:40):
the wind patterns there do suggest that it could take
away about half a run quarter of a run from
this game. Specifically, two really bad starting pitchers kind of
neutralize each other, Mike Burrows. Presumably we will be getting
Miles Michael Lists for the bulk of the game for
the Nationals. He may not start, they may replace him
with an owner opener. But these among my bottom fifty
(03:02):
or so starting pitchers out of two hundred pitchers. I
have Michaelis at one forty five. I have Burrows at
one sixty six. Not a huge gap between them. But
where the real differential comes in in this game is
the bullpens. I have the Nationals ranked as my number
thirty bullpen. I have the Astros ranked I believe eleventh.
They've gotten a lot better as the season has gone on.
(03:22):
I had that team ranked as probably a bottom five
bullpen throughout much of April. May Now that Josh Haters
back in the fold, they have other guys pitching a
little bit better. I certainly like the Astros bullpen a
lot more than it did earlier in the year. The
Nationals bullpen, however, still no swing and miss in there,
still walking, a lot of guys remain very vulnerable late
in games, have a couple of guys who should be
(03:44):
down today as well. So don't like either starting pitcher
much prefer the Astros bullpen, and I also slightly prefer
the Astros lineup as well. I project them about four
points better in terms of WRC plus. The Nationals great
out better for power and contact, the Astros great out
better for plate discipline and swing selectivity and actually driving
(04:08):
the right pitches. Two bad teams in terms of base
running and defense. Those sort of neutralize each other as well.
So putting it all together again, I make the Astros
about even money. I let them down to plus one
oh eight. I have the total at ten point seven.
I would make that closer to eleven point two on
a weather neutral day, but I still like the over
ten here up to about minus one point fifteen, and
(04:31):
that is my two bets on Astros and Nationals. One
of my two over bets on today's slate spoof us
to the Mets in the Braves, concluding, I believe a
four game set out in Atlanta today, Mets with an
embarrassing loss on Saturday, ended up bouncing back yesterday, but
nearly blue a seven or on ninth inning leak. Because
(04:53):
even my wins this year have been absolutely pulling teeth.
I can't believe the Braves managed to get the winning
run to second base in the bottom of the ninth inning.
Absolutely tragic. Model tried to get me to back the
bets today, I said, absolutely no way. I manually moved
that line a little bit further in downgrading their bullpen
relative to where I have it, because this bullpen just
(05:15):
can't get outs out. My model weighted fit for this
bullpen actually ranks it as a better bullpen than the Braves.
I do not disagree or I do not agree with
that assessment completely, you know, factoring in more in season
data as opposed to preseason projecting data, I think I
have it a little bit more where I want it
at this point, constantly rolling in and waiting in more
(05:35):
in season data as we go along here, and we're
now at the midpoint of the twenty twenty sixth season.
But what I do like and what I do think
has been underrated and can continue to produce is the
Mets offense. I think they went through a stretch right
after they got Lindor back where they weren't hitting. Despite
the fact that I project them so highly, They've been
producing runs, especially the last couple of days, and they
continue to rank as one of the best offenses in
(05:57):
my model, I believe the best offense on today slate.
It's where I have them protected around a one to
twenty WRC plus elite contact or elite power and I
grades with very good contact as well, which you know,
really only the daughters the Nationals two degree, but they
don't necessarily have the swing decisions. So, as I've said before,
on pods, you know, having the ability to drive the ball,
(06:20):
select the right pitches to drive, but then also make
contact consistently enough that you are producing is kind of
a rare combination of skills. The Daughters have it, the
Mets seemingly have it. The Mets are just missing the
other pieces around it. And one of the things they're
missing is the contributions they expected to get for Peretti
Peralta this season. Because Peralta ranking is my SP one
to eleven, he probably would have been a top thirty,
(06:43):
if not a top forty starter last season. Ranald the
Lopez my SP one thirty nine, so I do rate
him slightly worse then I rate Peralta. He has a
three to three y array expected fit before five expect
the ARRA of four six ERA four to four, So
ran All the Lopez has outperformed He's underlying cators by
about a full run. Peralta has underpitched his indicators by
(07:04):
about a half a run. He's expected fipsierra closer to
four to one four to two, his actual ERA sitting
at four to eight, so he's arguably been unlucky. Raynaldo
Lip has arguably been lucky to this point of the season.
Braves a better bullpen give the Mets the sled offensive
edge with a Kunya remaining out. But what I do
like here is the over I bet over eight and
(07:26):
a half at about minus one twelve. I like over
nine to minus one oh five even minus won ten
for tonight's game gonna be about mid eighties temperature, no
major impact in terms of my total. Didn't really move
this around for weather adjustment would move it down probably
if anything. But I make this total again nine point three,
(07:47):
so over nine to minus one oh five between the
Mets and the Braves. Could also look at it first
five over there as well. Considering my view of these
two starting pitchers relative to the bullpens, I think these
bullpens are better, much better than these two starting pitchers are. Then, lastly,
for today's slate, very small slate for me, Blue Jays
(08:08):
and Giants under eight, I took it minus one fourteen.
I like that at seven and a half down to
minus one oh eight. This is going to be an
unseasonably cold night in San Francisco. Temperature is going to
be in the low sixties, if not the high fifties
during a game on July seventh. I know San Francisco
is kind of a climate unto itself out there, very
(08:30):
much as Buffalo is an upstate New York a climate
unto itself when it starts snowing in September. So San
Francisco tonight going to be very chilly, and even though
the wind is blowing out, which it typically is in
that park, the temperatures should knock down the expected run
scoring environment. I make this total I believe seven point one.
(08:50):
On a weather neutral day, I would have this closer
to seven point six seven point seven. But for tonight's game,
I like the under eight down seven and a half
at minus one oh five. Loganup Kevin Gausman. Both have
been hit hard in the individual starts of late. You know,
you look at the box scorers, you see Gossman get
(09:10):
lit up by the Rangers six runs, ten hits in
five innings.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Before that, he got lit up by the Cubs.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
Rupe coming off of his start where he got lit
up by the Diamondbacks. But I do think the weather
is going to help both maintain effectiveness and pitch to
their effectiveness tonight Roupe fifty percent ground ball rate. I
believe Goussman back to a form where you know, Gusman's
kind of bounced around in recent years. There was a
(09:37):
year where he saw the shrike at minus walk great decline.
I believe it was two or three years ago, ended
up bouncing back last year. The numbers, they'll say this
is a number two starter, three seventy five expected fit
three seven, Sierra earray of four point two. I think
largely due to that one blow up sort of masking
how effective he's been on a start to start basis Rupe,
(09:58):
as I said, been very volatile of late well, but
getting back to home or he's pitched much better I
think should be beneficial for him. Both these guys rate
really highly in stuff models as well, which I tend
to trust when guys are going through a rough stretch
of area and still looking under the hood seeing whether
the pitch modeling metrics are sort of aligning with previous expectations,
(10:18):
making sure that you know there's no velocity dip or
stuff dip, you know, big decline in movement or anything
like that to that point, and it's worth noting. I
believe it was codify Baseball who might have put it
on Twitter.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
Last week.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
We've discussed this at link with Paul Skeins. He got
hit hard in his last start. Again, I think the
last part we had here last Tuesday we discussed Paul
Skein's Paul Skins spin rate on his four seam fastball
has virtually declined on every single start. That's one of
the best indicators that a pitcher is injured. Seeing that
spin rate on his foreseen fastball continuing to dip as
(10:51):
we go along in the season, I think is a
major red flag for Paul Skeins. I say that to
say that I don't see similar concerns with Kevin Gausman
or Route, So I think both of these guys are fine.
They've just gotten hit hard individually in two of their
last five starts each tonight. I make this total around seven,
and I like the under seven and a half to
minus one to eight. Major defensive edge for the Jays
(11:13):
in this matchup throughout this series. Jay's one of my
best defensive teams, the Giants one of my worst. So
a major defensive edge for the Blue Jays in this series.
And when you have two guys who are going to
be allowing balls in play, like Roupe and like Gaussman,
that is a major edge for the Toronto defense. So again,
just to recap, the Astros to even money and the
(11:37):
over nine and a half to ten at minus one
fifteen in that matchup, the Mets and Braves over eight
and a half to nine at minus one oh five.
Even minus one to ten would be fine, and then
Toronto and San Francisco under eight to seven and a
half at minus one oh eight. Those are the bets
I've actually placed for today's slate. Just want to briefly highlight,
(11:58):
briefly highlight the other bets that are close to being
in range on today's slate. I need to re upload
odds into the tool because it seems like it's being
a little funky at the moment. But the Phillies and
Royals over eight is sitting. I have this at eight
point five. We don't have We do have umpire information,
(12:19):
but I need lineups to confirm. This afternoon, this is
the final game in Kansas City between these teams. Chris
Sanchez on the mound for the Phillies. We always discuss
how Sanchez is better at home than he is on
the road splits This year expected FIP strike out minus
walk right about neutral in both venues, around a two
to seventy five expected fit for Sanchez, whether at home
(12:41):
or on the road. So I don't think you can necessarily,
like manually dock him, but it is worth noting he
does tend to get hit harder on the road than
he does at home. The underlying indicators say he should
be about the same, but for whatever reason, those runs
seem to cash in more frequently. And that's not something
that's just happened this year. If you go to past years,
there is a gap in his splits home versus roads.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
So keep an eye on the Phillies lineups.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
If you got over eight at minus one oh five,
I would probably consider placing a bet there, but want
lineups to confirm and come out this afternoon before I
lock anything in, because the afternoon lineup is always going
to be a little bit goofier than night lineups. For
night slates, I think we can project out lineups for
the rest of the slate a little bit more readily.
The other bet I was considering taking a look at
(13:27):
was Brewers and Cardinals over eight as well. That's around
minus one oh five. I make that eight point four.
I like Shane Rohan, Dustin May has gotten hit really
hard in his last two starts. Made it through two
innings in Kansas City, gave up six runs, didn't make
it out of the first inning against the Braves, gave
up five runs there had the start before that was
(13:50):
his near no hitter against the San Diego Padres. So
very volatile for Dustin May in terms of his recent performances.
Love the Brewers Bullpen, love Shane Rohan much more than market. Well,
I guess not much more of the market anymore. I
was betting on Drohan for a while. I haven't shown
value on the Brewers and it starts the past two
or three starts. But despite the fact that I like Drohan,
(14:13):
I love the Brewers Bulpin, I still make this total
about eight point four. So I want to see lineups here.
I want to see the umpire before deciding whether to
fire on anything in that game. But I would lean
over in that matchup, and I would lean slightly under
the ten and a half between the Dodgers and Rockies
another game where I would want to see umpires. Very
difficult for me to pull the trigger on a matchup
(14:34):
involving Eric Klaower and Kyle Frielan. But I make this
total about ten point one five. I want to see
umpires here. I want to confirm weather later in the
day because I do downgrade this offensive environment slightly going
to be in the low seventies one blowing out at
Daughter Stadium, but going to be in the low seventies
can I we'll get into the sixties by later in
the game. Just two pictures who I project you know
(14:55):
among my worst starting pitchers lower right near the bottom
of my board at SP one ninety seven free landed
sp one. So difficult guys to back with your money.
But I do think this total just a touch high
for Dodger Stadium. You generally don't see totals in the
double digits at Dodger Stadium unless the pitchers are this bad,
and tonight they are this bad. But I lean under
(15:16):
in that game between the Dodgers and Rockies ten and
a half, I would want even money currently two about
minus one oh five, and we'll see if I adjusted
off of the umpires beyond that. Before we get out
of here, make sure to check out the deal that
we've got going on with Action Pro. We've officially launched
our summer sale to go with our brand new features
(15:37):
for the World Cup. We have money line over underspread
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the smarter, smartest, better you could be. Action network dot
Com slash Pro two months for the price of three,
(16:01):
and that'll do it for today's episode of Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Thank you for tuning in.
Speaker 3 (16:03):
If you'd like to tell some of the bets that
we discussed on today's episode, make sure to look for
the quick sliplink both in the podcast and video description,
or visit actiontwork dot com slash Bet now. Don't forget
to download the free or word winning Action Work Gap
and leave us at five star rating and review wherever
you listen to the podcast for a chance to win
some Action Network swag. Check out our new AI quick
(16:24):
slip bottom X. Just tag a playbook at playbook and
tell it to grab whatever bets you're looking for it
to create a quick sliplink for you in a matter
of seconds. We'll be back tomorrow with another episode of
Payoff Pitch. For now check out my projections in opening
pitch for today's late Using my bar tole tool, you
can also find that both in the Action Work Gap,
on our Action pro Tools, in our Projections tabs, or
(16:45):
on the Action Network Projections Hub online.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
I'm Sean Zerilla.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
Thank you for tuning in and listening to Monday's episode
of Payoff Pitch, Action Networks Majors at Baseball Betting Podcast.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
Good luck, follow your bets you see back here? Look
at his crowd on his free what trigger?
Speaker 3 (17:13):
No one wants to leave
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