June 30, 2026 • 38 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch, Sean Zerillo and Grant Neiffer team up to break down the Tuesday's MLB slate. The crew dives into sides, totals and dingers. Using the MLB 20–80 scouting scale, they grade their most confident plays and highlight where they’re finding the most value across the board. Tune in to hear their top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Check out the video version of today's show on Action Network YouTube page for a sneak peak. Rate, review and subscribe to the show wherever you watch or listen so you don't miss us every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Fall, no crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Then the wind up.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
It is Springs operating Josh the bit outside. Here's a
drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos. It will be
a home run. And hello too time you talk about
a roll at the dice, this is it. Here's the
(00:31):
Payoff Pitch. Welcome to Payoff Pitch, Action Networks Major League
Baseball Betting Podcast. It is Tuesday, June thirtieth, the last
day of June. I'm coming Wi Church, joined by Action
Network Senior MLB analyst Shunzillo as well as Grant Nefer
of Scores and Odds to break down this full, busy
(00:56):
Tuesday night MLB slate. All the games taking place on
under the lights lots to get to. So let's jump
right into it with our eighty grade bets. Sean, I'm
going to start with you. Your first bet on the
board is the biggest favorite on the board tonight, but
that's not deterring you. We have Pirates Phillies, Bubba Chandler
(01:17):
against Christopher Sanchez and whatever this line is for the Phillies,
you're saying it's it should be higher. I'm guessing yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:28):
I bet the Phillies at minus two twenty, I make
them closer to minus to sixty, and I would bet
them up to about minus two forty five minus two
to fifty. Currently I make them minus two sixty five.
It is currently minus two forty five. You could use
them as a parlay piece up to minus two fifty.
I would not go much beyond that. Obviously, the market
agreed that Chris Sanchiez should be a slightly bigger favorite here.
(01:52):
Is always better at home than he is on the road.
Hit hard on the road in his last start. I
bet against him in that last start. Anytime he's coming home,
rejects about three quarters of run better than he does
on the road, something we've discussed regularly on this show.
I don't know if it's the mountain height, some sort
of comfortability thing at Citizens Bank Park, but it seems
like he is a guy that is just for whatever reason,
(02:14):
his pitches have more movement and he's a little bit
more effective at home than he is on the road.
Best pitch bait Baseball Remains has change up one seventy
nine expected well about forty six percent with rate. The
bullpen advantage here, though, is arguably just as big if
not bigger than the gap in the starting pitching matchup.
Pirates have a couple guys down tonight. This is my again,
(02:36):
it's my four versus s P one thirty two, So
huge gap in terms of like elite to slightly below average,
even a little bit more comfortably below average for Bubber Chandler.
But it's the bullpens as well, where I just project
a massive advantage for the Phillies.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
I have the Phillies.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Around a three free weighted fit and I have the
Pirates closer to a four to five in terms of
the bullpen rankings. Lineups relatively comparable, but I still make
the Phillies again about minus two sixty five and would
take them up to minus two fifty for today's slate.
So one big favorite checked off, got another one coming,
got a couple of underdogs here and a few totals,
(03:14):
and then one pick them bets. So pretty loaded card
relative to Monday's slate. About double the number of the
bets that I had yesterday, So hopefully we can keep
the good vibes going. After actually cashing and over in
the night inning last night, I've lost one hundred bets,
like I lost that or like I've won that Diamondbacks
over last night, over eight and a half, cashing at nine,
(03:35):
and hopefully we can keep those coming, because man, we
are due for quite a bit more of those.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
See if Sean can stay hot. It is hot all
over the country right now. Looking at projected game time temperatures,
I'm seeing eighty six, eighty five, ninety four, eighty nine,
ninety six as a roof. But yeah, a lot of
it's warming up. It's heating up. The summer is a
fit here, which means the potential for more Dingers Grand
(04:03):
Get in.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
Milwaukee yesterday, Milwaukee was ninety degrees at game time. They
kept that roof open. So yeah, you got you gotta
be careful. You got to look at the weather for
all these games. I had to bump up that Milwaukee total.
You gotta be careful too. You know this is just
a slight like PSA. I'll be very brief with this.
I think Ballpark pal is a great tool. They do
a great job. Yesterday they had the forecast for Fenway,
(04:24):
It's sixty six to sixty three degrees.
Speaker 1 (04:26):
That was wrong.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
The forecast was in the seventies. That game ended up
going over.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
They had like a minus nine percent weather adjustment on
that game. I think they do a phenomenal job. I
just want to point out sometimes some sites you look at,
even mine, there is going to be data quality issues,
So check multiple data sources. Because that forecast was straight
up wrong yesterday. If you had looked at the Milwaukee forecast,
you just would have assumed that the roof would be closed.
It wasn't, even though it was ninety degrees. So the
(04:50):
weather is so insanely important, especially you know, every day
for baseball, but especially this time of year. So just
double check the forecast they're earsing. Double check the information
that you're using in terms of what you're using into
your handicap, whether you're betting home runs like Grant is,
whether you're betting sides and totals like I am. The
information in the weather and the forecast is so incredibly
important right now to be accurate.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
The roof was open in Milwaukee last night, I would
imagine the roof is going to be closed in Houston today.
They generally have it closed during the summer months, which
is why I be interested to hear your analysis here,
Grant on your first two dinger bets of the day,
they are in twins astros again in Houston, Joe Ryan
(05:32):
against Mike Burrows. With Mike Burrows on the mound, maybe
the weather and the roof status doesn't matter all that much.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yeah, and that's kind of it. And the odds are
just far to get. I mean, Burrows has been pretty
pretty bad expressing power this year, and historically he's been
a big plus match it for lefty power, plus match
it for ariety power just slightly, but he's been absolutely
crushed by lefties this year. So the first one I'm
rolling with is Josh Bell two point six home runs
for nine giving up this year for Burrows to lefties,
(06:05):
and Belle is sitting at five seventy nine. I know
he's not a huge home run hitter. I think you
got one last night, but the odds are just a
bit too high. Ballpark isn't as great for lefty power,
but still it's just I have his TRU odds under
plus five hundred, so getting him at this number is
way too high. And than the other guy going with is
actually righty, and that's Royce Lewis. Burrows again not as
(06:28):
good as a matchup for righty power, but you got
the Crawford boxes out there to left. Lewis just absolutely
went crazy in Triple A. When he got sent down
this year, came back, went on a little bit of tear,
and then has come back to earth. Did it one
last night. Has been up and down, but he's a
very very good power hitter when he's hitting the ball well,
(06:48):
and over the last month he's been hitting the ball decently.
I got it plus five seventy five. You can still
get it at that, I think, and I hit all
the way down to plus five hundred, but the spot
is just a good enough one where the odds not
be nearly this high, so I would hit it all
the way down to about four point fifty. But yeah,
I just I'm higher on Royce Lewis when he's playing well.
(07:09):
He's one of those guys that I very much pay
attention to when he's seeing the ball well, just because
he's such an inconsistent bat, and just what he's done
in the last month and a half, going all the
way back to Triple A, it's enough to give me,
have me give him a little bit of a bump
in his overall projections. And having the Crawford boxes there
and having the matchup versus Burrows. I'm rolling with it.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Royce Lewis, Josh Bell, Homer picks from Grant in twins Astros.
We will go to probably the best pitching matchup of
the day. Well, it's definitely the best pitching matchup of
the day in the Bronx Tigers and Yankees. Man the
Tigers offense jumped all over Ryan Weathers last night in
that one. You know, I keep tooting the Tigers horn.
(07:57):
Sean and I both we recorded a if you that
we recorded a Futures Update episode yesterday. This should be
in your podcast feed right now. We talked all things
world series win totals, division winners, pennantce MVPs I, Young
Rookie of the Year, et cetera. And we're both tooting
the horn of Tigers shouldn't sell. I think they're gonna sell,
but I don't think they should. They looked good last night, obviously,
(08:20):
in a big series opening win against the Yankees tonight
Terrek Scouble against Cam Schlittler. Can't get much better than that.
Right now? And you have a side here, Sean.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Yes, side Endototal actually added the under to this game
as well. I have a one hundred and sixty grade
bet section. I added a couple bets late to the
sixty grade section for today. Tigers at plus one twenty
last night certainly popped up at plus one oh eight
where they are currently, would say more of a sixty
grade bet. But I like both the Tigers in the
under in this matchup. Tigers two about plus one ten,
(08:54):
the under seven and a half two about seven at
minus one oh five school my.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
SP three Schlittler.
Speaker 4 (09:02):
I believe my SP six, So I have both of
these guys ranked is elite of the elite.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
I do have Raspis in though sandwiched in between.
Speaker 4 (09:09):
There in the American League have Raspis and rated ever
so slightly better than Cam Schlitzler. Right now, comparing lineup
for lineup, I may actually prefer without Aaron Judge, and
there for the Tiger without Aaron Judge, and there for
the Yankees. And with the Tigers offense mostly back to
full health, I may actually prefer the Tigers offense just
(09:30):
ever so slightly. But I do make this game, and
I make the Tigers slight favorites here at about minus
one oh four would take them to roughly plus one
oh five and then the under seven and a half
at to seven at minus one oh five. Yeah, a
lot of power on that Tiger's offense, but certainly a
lot of swinging mess as well, which is obviously something
(09:51):
that Schlitzler is going to take advantage of. Yankees a
poor defensive team right now, which is surprising to me
because last year I rated them pretty highly defense. The
Tigers bullpens certainly the worst of the two, but I
don't really trust the Yankees bullpen a ton either. I
think the main concern here in terms of picking the side,
in terms of bet any under as well, School just
(10:13):
really hasn't gone past like ninety pitches eighty five pitches.
The Tigers are clearly not pushing him too hard in
the event that they do trade him at the trade deadline,
knowing that he is coming off of that in season
il stint. So that is just the main thing to
watch here. If you see that School pitch count getting
hyped up pretty early and the game hasn't had any runs,
(10:34):
you know, it's zero zero through three, but School is
sitting on seventy five pitches and you know he's not
getting past five. That would be the kind of spot
where I might look at a live over or a
live Yankees team total something like that. Just because he's
not going past one hundred pitches here, he's probably not
going past ninety five pitches, So just worth noting and
keeping that in mind. This is not like seven inning Schooble.
(10:57):
Probably I think if best, you're getting eighteen outs out
of hand and the Tiger's bullpen is going to have
to figure it out from there. But I still show
value on the Tigers regardless Tigers, the minus Tigers, the
plus one oh five, and then the under seven to
minus one oh five between the Tigers and Yankees.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
I just looked it up while you were talking. I
was curious the frequency with which Terrek Scuble is an underdog,
the Tigers are underdogs, and Trek's starts. It happened twice
last year, believe it or not. August second, very very slight,
basically toss up underdogs against the Phillies in a Schooble
Zach Wheeler matchup, and then all the way back to
(11:35):
the opening series of the season March twenty seventh, Blake
Snell against Trek Scuble in Dodgers Tigers. The Tigers were
plus one forty underdogs in that one. They lost that one.
They won the Phillies one.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
So yeah, very ready to get into plus money. Yeah,
you need an elite starting pitcher and a pretty good team.
On the other side, he needs to be on the
road as well.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
Yep, that's what we got here. Uh, we'll go one
more from you here before we get to Grant's last
homer bet of the eighty grade section Cardinals Braves, Matthew
Liberator and Martin Perez in that one. Martin Perez still
hanging on in that brave rotation. We'll see how much longer.
Speaker 4 (12:20):
Yeah, I took the Cardinals here at about plus one forty.
I like them out of plus one thirty. I make
this plus one twenty is sitting at around plus one
thirty right now.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
So again, good CoV.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
But unfortunately, as of the time they're recording, not a
ton of value left at this number. If you want
my bets when I placed them, make sure to follow
me in the action workap. I released these midnight one
am Eastern, and you can get the best numbers when
I put them out there, because generally by morning, as
we've seen the last few days on the show, most
of the value has been sucked out of the line.
I really like this Cardinals offense against left handed pitching.
(12:53):
I like Liberator more earlier in the year. His peripherals
have kind of come down into that mid fours range.
He's gotten a hit hard in his recent starts Martine Press,
you know, carrying an ear rate near three, he's overachieved
by about a full run is expected indicators closer to four.
And as I said, I like this Cardinals offense against
left handed pitching. I give them a minus contact grade,
(13:16):
a minus power grade against left handed pitching, but a
D plus I ratings. So the swing decisions aren't necessarily there,
the batted ball skills are. This is also a very
strong defensive team as well. Braids aren't a bad defensive team.
But I do give the Cardinals the defensive edge.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
The Braves of speed.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
Offensively, they have a little bit of power, but the
swing decisions aren't there for them either, and the contact
is less than what the Cardinals are putting bat on
ball with, so starting pitchers about the same bullpen advantage
Atlanta line up for me at Lantage, for Saint Louis,
for Ronald Lacuna Junior, still out Both teams facing a
(13:53):
left handed starter again, I make the Cardinals about plus
one twenty, would take them two plus one thirty, and
now that it is plus one thirty more of a
sixty grade bet.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
So you know, based upon the.
Speaker 4 (14:04):
Value I have relative to the line, the confidence in
the bet is going to shrink.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
At plus one thirty.
Speaker 4 (14:09):
Don't like it nearly as much as I did at
plus one forty, but I would still take it at
that price. And it remains a bet on today's card
provided we have any or don't have any lineup absences.
It is a Tuesday night, so we should be getting
regular lineups here. I've been getting killed by lineup absences recently.
If you followed me on Sunday, I had a bet
on the A's. They ended up putting Tyler Sodastrom on
(14:30):
the IL on Monday, but they sat him on Sunday.
They also sat in a Kurt surprisingly on Sunday. So
it doesn't get a little iffy if you do not
follow me regularly, if you're just starting to follow me,
it gets a little iffy. Would line up sometimes we're
all have to buy out of a bet, but on
Tuesday night that is very unlikely to occur. So Cardinals
to plus one thirty, and I'd imagine it will stay
on the card.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Yeah, if guys get days off today, it's injury related.
It's not just oh, we need to give this guy
a day off. Trap up the eighty grade section with you.
Guys both have one more bet on the same game, Grant,
I'll go to you first with a dinger bet. We're
going out west to Angels Mariners Jose Soriano against Brian
MoU another nice pitching matchup in this one.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
Yeah. No, and this is strictly a price play, and
I mean it looks like the price is moving pretty drastically.
I don't like this nearly as much as I did earlier.
But zach now I got him at plus six', ten
which seems ridiculous for how good he's actually been over
the last, month month and a, half pretty much the
entire season, long he's one of the better home run
hitters in the. LEAGUE wu has historically been a just
(15:35):
slightly below average matchup FOUR rdy. Power he's been better
this season suppressing, power but he's due for some pretty
heavy regression sitting at think what was, it zero point
sixty six home runs per nine to, rieties which is
very very bad. Matchup but his home run to fly
(15:55):
ball rate is just sitting at six point seven percent
forty percent flyball, rate two percent hard. Contact. Right, yes
he does strikeout, guys had a pretty hefty, clip but
all the underlying numbers show he should probably be right
around average in terms of home runs given up to rieties,
here so netto being as good as he, IS i
have the true odds underplulus five. Hundred you can still
(16:18):
get over plus five hundred right now in one or two,
spots but six' ten number was. Phenomenal play i'd probably
moved this down more towards a sixty great bet at,
this point BUT when i got him at plus, six
ten that was massive.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
Expected Value zach netto to go deep For the Angels,
and sean you are on a side Here In. Angels.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
MARINERS yeah i like.
Speaker 4 (16:40):
The ms to minus one. EIGHTY five i make them
around minus. Two Hundred jose soriano had a Really, good
april Pretty, good may and then he's fallen off pretty Dramatically.
In june looking at the innings and the strikeouts and
Walks in may thirty and two thirds innings, ten walks thirty,
eight strikeouts Pretty elite june or sorry That.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Was.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
April june apologies That.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
Was april This is may, twenty eight two, thirds innings,
fifteen walks twenty, nine strikeouts still. Pretty good two to
one strike up Prnning in june twenty three and two
thirds seventeen mawks twenty four strikeouts against the roughiest strike,
up prnning but now getting walk nearly two of every,
three innings And the marators offense is. Extremely patient still
(17:26):
not hitting, the ball but what they do do, is
walk get guys, on base and then hopefully do not
strike out with the runners on BASE in, t mobile
which is, virtually impossible but eventually hopefully cash those. Runners
in they hit a lot of homers on, you know
when they're, hitting homers they're typically two runners because they
walk so much in front of the guys who. Have
(17:47):
Power So brian wu pitching better, Of Late jose soriano
pitching worse, OF late a pretty big gap between these.
STARTING pitchers I have wu IS my sp. TWENTY five
I have soriano ring trying to see Where if soriana ranked,
eighty eight so right around. LEAGUE average wu IN that sp,
one territory maybe the low end. Sp one, but yeah
(18:09):
as the, ground balls, you know unless the ground Balls.
Bailout soriato with these walks that are coming in, increased
form it seems like he's getting hit four, five runs,
four runs five, shutout innings, five runs, three runs three
runs in his last, six starts so pretty consistently getting
runners home, against them and the ground ball double plays
(18:30):
are not coming. As frequently in the strikeout stuff is
turning into walks a little bit. More frequently Prefer this
mariners offense just, better process better, contact power about, the
same better base running, team defense about the same bullpen
edge certainly For the mariners. As well take them up
to about minus one to eighty five in. This matchup
(18:51):
it's roughly where it's, gone to but a FAVORITE that
i like on. Today's slate you, could also at, current
prices at, current prices full permission to, do this because
it's just compounding the. Edge together so at current prices
at about minus two fifty and For the phillies and
minus one eighty five For, the mariners parlay of that
should pay out at about plus one fifteen plus. One
(19:13):
sixteen that is. Certainly acceptable. To do and in terms
of my fair odds FOR what i would make, THAT
parlay i would say that that should be about plus
one oh six plus one, oh five so plus one
fifteen are better on a parlay With the mariners And.
The phillies perfectly acceptable for today.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
As well love that love a rare u a rare
permission for Parlay, from yes.
Speaker 4 (19:36):
You know as long as both they are getting up
near minus, two hundred combining them into, one edge you
know you don't don't put two units on the bet and,
keep it keep it a one unit bet or whatever
you would size. It normally, but yeah, you know instead
of instead of betting them individually at, smaller edges just
compound the edges and get slightly bigger Payoup.
Speaker 3 (19:53):
Was sorriano man that red hot start to. The season
he leads the majors And, walks, now yeah crazy? Stuf there?
All right that does it for our eighty. Grade section
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Of two, all right two star section here we've got,
fourth well three Totals from sean that he hasn't, talked
about one more side and then two more Homers From
grant sean. Great call last Night In, padres cubs we
(21:01):
had a total sitting there. At twelve we had ninety
degree weather went howling out what that final end? Being
like three? To, two yeah three to two final tonight
they're expecting more of. The same the total sitting at
eleven and. A half WE have jp Sears Against. Matthew
boyd are you betting Into the wrigley wind trend or
are you going back to the well with what you?
Speaker 1 (21:24):
Did?
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Yesterday yeah unfortunately going back to.
Speaker 4 (21:26):
THE well i hate Betting These wrigley field weather you,
know totals but maybe because you know the. Weather is
as we, discussed yesterday the weather expected to be so extreme,
notches yesterday but for the ensuing four or five days
and the rest of the week here it looks like
it's gonna be blowing out like this. AND warm i
(21:47):
think books were extra wise to the fact and probably
jacked these up a little bit higher than they. Should
be we're going to be Getting another i'm going to
be giving out another weather ANTI correlated i guess whether
oriented un in a moment on a GAME that i
think is slightly, too high but this one was too high.
FOR me i make this closer to around ten and
A half i'd bet or ten point. TWENTY five i
(22:10):
bet the under eleven to minus. ONE twenty i got
under eleven and a half at minus one p fifteen,
last night second Start for jpcies got absolutely lit up in.
The minors look okay in his start Against, the braves
did pitch out of trouble. Three times but the thing
is the same thing from. Me yesterday as long As
this potter's bullpen gets into this game and it's four,
(22:31):
to three, you know in the. Sixth inning i'm gonna
feel pretty good about these bullpens being able to hold
this game to four runs or fewer over the final.
Three innings there's just enough, strikeout stuff especially In the,
potterys bullpen to Neutralize the cups late a little bit
more worried about A shaky cubs bullpen going up Against
a podreys offense that has a decent amount of contact
(22:53):
and just having contact and win like this can certainly
allow the ball to. Carry out but the padres one
of my lowest rated. Power teams cubs much. More power
these are two great defensive teams, as WELL as i.
Discussed yesterday so in the event that you do have,
some homers hopefully some stolen base hits have happened just
before that to keep it solo shots instead of two
(23:15):
or three. RUN bombs i make, this again ten point
twenty five would be the under eleven two minus one
twenty five took eleven and a half. Last night the
under eleven and a half would be nice to get
the hook, on it because it certainly ends six to
five at a decently. High clip, but yeah zagging on the,
weather here big bullpen differential and big bullpen advantage For,
the padres but no edge on the side because the
(23:37):
difference in the bullpens is comparable to the difference in
the starting pitchers For. The cubs cubs big starting Pitching
edge pottery's big bullpen Edge lineups cubs, slight edge but
not enough to push it to. Either side so under
eleven to minus one twenty.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
The books jacking up the Total. AT wrigly i would
imagine that the homer prices have been similarly Suppressed, at
wrigley which Is why grant doesn't Have Any cubs padres
bets on. His card he does have a bet on
his cards for The other. Chicago team man after my,
Own Heart White sox Orioles in, Baltimore Tonight eric Fetti Against,
trey gibson and you Like A white sox hitter who's
(24:14):
probably going to Be An.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
All star he absolutely deserves. To be he's been phenomenal.
This Season It's. Miguel vargas vargas has. Been great you
can give him at plus four to twenty five. RIGHT
now i believe it's still. The line the spot's a good.
One here gibson has been not great at suppressing power
and short sample size. This season obviously we can't really
(24:37):
do much with, thirty innings but he grdes out us
right around an average matchup for, righty power which in
any given scenario would be Far too vargus being over
plus four hundred be far. Too high but the weather
is phenomenal for. Hitting today tempts right around ninety degrees during,
game time wind blowing out to left at ten miles.
(24:57):
AN hour i don't love that ballpark for, right power
but when we're getting these odds in a plus Spot,
for vargas it just seems. Absolutely SILLY so i hit
it all the way down to around plus three seventy in.
This spot so getting over plus four hundred.
Speaker 3 (25:12):
Is Great The white sox fourteen and Twelve Since munataka
morikami went out of, the lineup which a lot of people,
didn't EXPECT and I Think miguel vargas is a big reason.
For that thank you for affording me an opportunity to
talk About The white sox on, the SHOW as i
attempt to do in every. Single, episode sean you alluded
to another anti anti weather bet on, your card. ANOTHER
(25:38):
total i haven't looked at the weather in. This One
raise Royals In, Kansas City griffin Jacks And. Noah cameron
we have a sky high. Total here we have a
total in double, Digits HERE so i imagine it's looking appealing
for people who. Want Offense but i'm, guessing again just Like,
in chicago you think this is a tad. TOO high.
Speaker 4 (25:56):
I do i took ten and a half. Last night
it has come down to. Ten today actually maybe out
of range for, a BET because i only like it
to ten at about minus one oh five ninety three
degrees at first pitch win fifteen miles an hour blowing
out to left, field here so definitely seemingly, offensive weather
but not really, the lineups especially on the, race side
(26:19):
not really the lineups that take advantage. Of It, junior
caminaro we'll get a slaveh boost, Today Obviously, yanda diaz,
you know more capable of putting one out with the
wind blowing out to. Left field the walls that they
moved in coffin were in, right field so it's not
blowing towards that shortened, distance either which is definitely slightly helpful.
For today But the raise an elite, contact team have
(26:40):
them as one of my worst, power Teams so they're
not the team to take advantage of great weather. Like
This the royals certainly are set up more.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
For That THE.
Speaker 4 (26:48):
Royals i give pretty elite plate discipline and one of
my higher power grades after THEM at b, PLUS power
A PLUS i c, plus contact which is pretty good
considering the. POWER grades I think Jack hag lee own
we're seeing in the midst of a breakout. Right now
there's a lot of power up and down, that ROSTER
but i Like the rays pitching staff to keep them.
IN check i know We Discussed griffin jack. Sister day
(27:09):
you had some reservations that he could continue to pitch
as well as he had or maybe would. WEAR down
i think that's the likelier thing that happened. TO him
i think he may wear down later in, the season but,
right Now and i've Been spec I've been i've been
skeptical that he can be a starting pitcher and an effective.
(27:29):
STARTING pitcher I think i'm coming around. TO it i
think he's turning into a bit Of a kentamaita, type
guy where he has two elite, secondary pitches a sweeper,
change up both sitting around at two sixty. Five wolba
both have a forty one percent, with rate and if
he can have two plus, SECONDARY pitches i think he
could be an effective five and dive guy and get
(27:52):
through a lineup multiple times and then come out of
the game and turn things over to a very good.
Raised Bullpen noah cameron also started out the year rough
has really rounded into form of late excellent curveball for
him last. Five starts has given up runs in some,
of them but overall the expected indicators for him have
come closer to. League AVERAGE so I Think Grick griffin
(28:13):
jack slightly. ABOVE average i think he's getting into that,
number two low end, number two high end number. THREE
range I Think noah cameron is very much a solid,
number three maybe a good, number four but a. SOLID
three i make this total about nine point seven, to
five so under ten actually to, even money but to
(28:33):
minus one oh five is fine for me in. THIS
matchup i think the weather helps the race or the
weather Helps the royals offense a little bit more than
it Does the. Rais offense But the rays have the
better pitching here throughout. This matchup so no side for
me on. This GAME but i do like the under
to ten at minus one, oh five just in. The
sixty great, bet section because despite adjusting this as MUCH as,
(28:55):
I could i still can't quite get to that ten
and a. Half number clearly correct in terms of, my
adjustment because the market moved off of the ten and
a half. As well but this is a bit of
a unique weather Spot For. KANSAS city i don't want
to underrate the potential weather factor and be completely against
it here because this is it's extreme weather for a,
ball park and this is the kind of stuff it's
(29:17):
getting very Close. To july we're Essentially in, july now
so this is the kind of weather that you only
See in July. And august and this is unique offensive
boost and we probably do get some homers tonight in
the LIKELIHOOD that i win both of the totals Between
the cubs game and this game about fifty to fifty
considering where you know the, odds are but just in
terms of like where these are going. To go if they,
(29:38):
go over they're going to go. Way over so if
you like the, OVERS here i would go alt overs
instead of the over ten and a half. Or whatever
i'd be looking at over twelve and, a half, you
KNOW except i would be looking at bigger plus, juice,
HERE bets i wouldn't be looking at the flat ten
or ten and.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
A half i think it. Goes over it's going to go.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
Way, over well you alluded to the possibility of Homers In,
kansas city so it's a nice Segue to grant's final
home run beat of. The slate it comes from, this
game and you already mentioned him sean a big breakout
For the royals, this Year and grant you like him
to go.
Speaker 1 (30:11):
Deep, Tonight yeah I'VE been i was waiting for, so
long pretty much all, last season in first few months,
this Season for kaglion to finally. BREAK out, i mean
the all the underlying number power numbers have been pretty
darn good for him since he came into, the league
and now it's finally starting. To show got a seventeen
percent barrel rate on. The season Matchup versus jacks IS just,
(30:34):
I mean jackson's actually been hit pretty hard by a lefties,
this year giving up a one point seventy two home run,
Per nine but he's due for some positive aggression grades
out as a round and average maybe slightly above average
matchup four. Lefty power he's got some, good stuff but
the weather is just far too good Over In kansas,
city today low nineties wind blowing out at twelve miles.
(30:56):
AN hour i should be around a twenty to twenty
five percent boost to. Home runs jack getting him at
plus four hundred plus four to TEN where i got
it is just far. Too high he's just been, so
good the underlying stuff has been so good, this season
and the weather is finally starting to get really Good In.
Kansas city so just give him the. SPOT here i
(31:17):
have a strods around plus three. To fifty you can
still get a plus four hundred number out there, right
NOW but i would hit it all the way down plus.
Speaker 4 (31:24):
THREE fifty i always think About the echier. Row Joke
bob costa ask him on air, each row what's your?
Favorite joke this Say is august Is In kansas city
is hotter than two rats fucking at.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
A wolfsock so.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
This time, of year it certainly seems to be the Case.
Poor england england's national team got stationed Up In kansas City.
In june those dudes were like dying in the, Heat
there so Get the european su. Air conditioning they seem
to really be struggling in the midst Of The world.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
Cup trouble, All, right sean you got one, more side
one more total to get. To us Both Out West,
Athletics Dodgers justin Robleski And jeffrey springs to. Crafty lefties
one has been, finding success one. Has not maybe neither find.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Success, tonight yeah hopefully TWELVE runs i believe in this game.
Last night thirteen runs in this game. Last night hopefully
we get.
Speaker 4 (32:21):
More tonight temperature is going to be around ninety degrees at,
first pitch and we have the wind blowing out straight
to centerfield at about ten miles an hour in. This
game this is the type of temperatures and wind that
we had Discussed At Sutter health park in the past
really boost the offensive. Run Environment justin robleski has continued
(32:42):
to Outperform is era or outperform his underlying Indicators e
raver around Two seven sierra of four. Point six it's
The Biggest era Era versus sierra gap for any of
the fifteen or thirty starting pitchers on.
Speaker 2 (32:56):
Today's slate so.
Speaker 4 (32:59):
Seemingly a regression candidate by the, underlying metrics has pitched
a little bit better, of LATE but i still think
he's closer to a league average starter around a four
to four to one weighted fit projection as opposed to
a sub, three guy even as opposed to a mid.
Threes Guy so robleski closer to average, For me springs
closer to. Replacement level his weighted fit projection is still
around four, to five but the actual era of five
(33:20):
point five expected fit four, five zero four to four
those are kind of masking that he's pitched warps over
the past five six starts strike up minus walk right dip.
Below average expected indicators have come up closer to. That
ERA so I think robleski worse than he's pitched, To
day springs worse than the underlying indicators says he. SHOULD
(33:41):
be i think the era is actually more accurate in
terms of what. He's doing four. Steamer sweeper his entire
arsenal really just. GETTING crushed i don't really see many
Pitches for springs to use to Get this dodter's offense
out with that crush gates. Jump yesterday he was also
the left, handed starters and overal concerns about the lefty
righty stuff For. The, DODGERS sometimes i do, you KNOW
(34:03):
sometimes i think they get shut down. BY lefties i
don't necessarily think that's going to be the, case tonight,
but yeah the big offensive boost in terms of the
wind and the temperatures and the weather blowing out two elite.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Power offenses two of my.
Speaker 4 (34:17):
Best offenses, FOR power i Give the DODGERS an A
grade i give The, d BACKS or i Give the
dime Give the ATHLETICS an a. Plus grade dodgers just
have more contact, with it and the a slightly more
played discipline. With it so, more contact similar power For,
the dodgers better swing decisions For, the dodgers better defense For.
(34:39):
The DODGERS but i make this total about ten. Point
five i'd bet the over eleven to minus one. TO
ten i upgraded that from minus one. Oh five doctors
have some guys out in their bullpen. As well do
project is the much. Better bullpen, but yeah things get
a little bit. Wonky here you may need the runs,
EARLY though i mean we see oftentimes in, this park
and this is. Worth noting make it a lot of,
(35:01):
runs early and then as the temperature start to dip
down later in, the game it's gonna be ninety at,
first pitch it's gonna be closer to eighty by the
end of, the game so as the game progresses along
may become a little bit more difficult to score if
you get a lot of. Early scoring considers zagging to
alive under once this gets into, the bullpens but pregame
over ten and a half to eleven minus one ten
(35:22):
Between the dodgers' knais and.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
Then wrap us up with your. Final. Side here in
the latest game on The Slate, Giants diamondbacks brandon fought
back in the rotation For, the snakes land and roop
pitching For the giants in.
Speaker 4 (35:37):
This, ONE yeah i think this is more OF a
i just prefer The d backs To the giants THING
because i make this game minus. One twenty i'm not
High whatsoever brandon. FOUGHT anymore i used to love brand.
And fought the metrics this year are absolutely. A mess
strike up minus, Walk rate he's dipped below the manjor.
League average he used to be a guy who is
around a fifteen percent strike up minus walk rate averages around.
(35:58):
Eleven percent this year he's closer to. Nine percent and
he used to be a guy who would be better
than average strike up on his, walk rape but would
give up a lot of. Hard contact now both, are
happening so definitely. A CONCERN but i much prefer The d,
backs BULLPEN and i definitely prefer their offense and their
offensive philosophy. As well a CONTACT grade d plus, power
(36:22):
grade but a MUCH better, i rating, swing. Decisions etc
and a much better defensive and base running team Than.
The giants this IS something i discussed yesterday as well
in terms of betting. The over anytime these teams, match
up The d backs are going to be the much better,
defensive team the much better based, running team put the
ball in play, more frequently and also have the better,
(36:43):
Bullpen too so on a, team perspective there's a lot
OF advantages i See. For arizona didn't have a bet
on them YESTERDAY because i Projected e rod WORSE than
i think the market thinks that. He, is obviously they
ended up winning the GAME and i ended up catching,
the over but probably wrong about the wrought assessment in
terms of yesterday's game specifically. For, today surprisingly EVEN though
(37:05):
i make fought so much WORSE that i, MAKE group
i still show value On. The Diamondbacks so arizona two
about minus one in a GAME where i make the minus.
One thirty first five innings may, be sweaty but once
this gets into, THE bullpens i think their offense takes.
Speaker 3 (37:20):
Over, all right that'll do it for today's Episode Of.
Payoff pitch thanks so much for. Tuning in you'd like
to tail some of the bets from, today's episode look
for the quick suplinks in the. Episode description don't forget
to download the free Award Winning action, network app and
also please leave us a five star rating and review
wherever you listen to. The podcast we will be Back
on friday with another Episode, For Grant need for And.
(37:41):
Shun Zilla I'm. Colin richard thanks so much for Listening
To Payoff Pitch action Networks Major League baseball, betting podcast
and good luck with all. Your bests turt this crowd on?
His street what? A? Tribute now what wants to me
Fall, no crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Then the wind up.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
It is Springs operating Josh the bit outside. Here's a
drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos. It will be
a home run. And hello too time you talk about
a roll at the dice, this is it. Here's the
(00:31):
Payoff Pitch. Welcome to Payoff Pitch, Action Networks Major League
Baseball Betting Podcast. It is Tuesday, June thirtieth, the last
day of June. I'm coming Wi Church, joined by Action
Network Senior MLB analyst Shunzillo as well as Grant Nefer
of Scores and Odds to break down this full, busy
(00:56):
Tuesday night MLB slate. All the games taking place on
under the lights lots to get to. So let's jump
right into it with our eighty grade bets. Sean, I'm
going to start with you. Your first bet on the
board is the biggest favorite on the board tonight, but
that's not deterring you. We have Pirates Phillies, Bubba Chandler
(01:17):
against Christopher Sanchez and whatever this line is for the Phillies,
you're saying it's it should be higher. I'm guessing yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:28):
I bet the Phillies at minus two twenty, I make
them closer to minus to sixty, and I would bet
them up to about minus two forty five minus two
to fifty. Currently I make them minus two sixty five.
It is currently minus two forty five. You could use
them as a parlay piece up to minus two fifty.
I would not go much beyond that. Obviously, the market
agreed that Chris Sanchiez should be a slightly bigger favorite here.
(01:52):
Is always better at home than he is on the road.
Hit hard on the road in his last start. I
bet against him in that last start. Anytime he's coming home,
rejects about three quarters of run better than he does
on the road, something we've discussed regularly on this show.
I don't know if it's the mountain height, some sort
of comfortability thing at Citizens Bank Park, but it seems
like he is a guy that is just for whatever reason,
(02:14):
his pitches have more movement and he's a little bit
more effective at home than he is on the road.
Best pitch bait Baseball Remains has change up one seventy
nine expected well about forty six percent with rate. The
bullpen advantage here, though, is arguably just as big if
not bigger than the gap in the starting pitching matchup.
Pirates have a couple guys down tonight. This is my again,
(02:36):
it's my four versus s P one thirty two, So
huge gap in terms of like elite to slightly below average,
even a little bit more comfortably below average for Bubber Chandler.
But it's the bullpens as well, where I just project
a massive advantage for the Phillies.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
I have the Phillies.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Around a three free weighted fit and I have the
Pirates closer to a four to five in terms of
the bullpen rankings. Lineups relatively comparable, but I still make
the Phillies again about minus two sixty five and would
take them up to minus two fifty for today's slate.
So one big favorite checked off, got another one coming,
got a couple of underdogs here and a few totals,
(03:14):
and then one pick them bets. So pretty loaded card
relative to Monday's slate. About double the number of the
bets that I had yesterday, So hopefully we can keep
the good vibes going. After actually cashing and over in
the night inning last night, I've lost one hundred bets,
like I lost that or like I've won that Diamondbacks
over last night, over eight and a half, cashing at nine,
(03:35):
and hopefully we can keep those coming, because man, we
are due for quite a bit more of those.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
See if Sean can stay hot. It is hot all
over the country right now. Looking at projected game time temperatures,
I'm seeing eighty six, eighty five, ninety four, eighty nine,
ninety six as a roof. But yeah, a lot of
it's warming up. It's heating up. The summer is a
fit here, which means the potential for more Dingers Grand
(04:03):
Get in.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
Milwaukee yesterday, Milwaukee was ninety degrees at game time. They
kept that roof open. So yeah, you got you gotta
be careful. You got to look at the weather for
all these games. I had to bump up that Milwaukee total.
You gotta be careful too. You know this is just
a slight like PSA. I'll be very brief with this.
I think Ballpark pal is a great tool. They do
a great job. Yesterday they had the forecast for Fenway,
(04:24):
It's sixty six to sixty three degrees.
Speaker 1 (04:26):
That was wrong.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
The forecast was in the seventies. That game ended up
going over.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
They had like a minus nine percent weather adjustment on
that game. I think they do a phenomenal job. I
just want to point out sometimes some sites you look at,
even mine, there is going to be data quality issues,
So check multiple data sources. Because that forecast was straight
up wrong yesterday. If you had looked at the Milwaukee forecast,
you just would have assumed that the roof would be closed.
It wasn't, even though it was ninety degrees. So the
(04:50):
weather is so insanely important, especially you know, every day
for baseball, but especially this time of year. So just
double check the forecast they're earsing. Double check the information
that you're using in terms of what you're using into
your handicap, whether you're betting home runs like Grant is,
whether you're betting sides and totals like I am. The
information in the weather and the forecast is so incredibly
important right now to be accurate.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
The roof was open in Milwaukee last night, I would
imagine the roof is going to be closed in Houston today.
They generally have it closed during the summer months, which
is why I be interested to hear your analysis here,
Grant on your first two dinger bets of the day,
they are in twins astros again in Houston, Joe Ryan
(05:32):
against Mike Burrows. With Mike Burrows on the mound, maybe
the weather and the roof status doesn't matter all that much.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yeah, and that's kind of it. And the odds are
just far to get. I mean, Burrows has been pretty
pretty bad expressing power this year, and historically he's been
a big plus match it for lefty power, plus match
it for ariety power just slightly, but he's been absolutely
crushed by lefties this year. So the first one I'm
rolling with is Josh Bell two point six home runs
for nine giving up this year for Burrows to lefties,
(06:05):
and Belle is sitting at five seventy nine. I know
he's not a huge home run hitter. I think you
got one last night, but the odds are just a
bit too high. Ballpark isn't as great for lefty power,
but still it's just I have his TRU odds under
plus five hundred, so getting him at this number is
way too high. And than the other guy going with is
actually righty, and that's Royce Lewis. Burrows again not as
(06:28):
good as a matchup for righty power, but you got
the Crawford boxes out there to left. Lewis just absolutely
went crazy in Triple A. When he got sent down
this year, came back, went on a little bit of tear,
and then has come back to earth. Did it one
last night. Has been up and down, but he's a
very very good power hitter when he's hitting the ball well,
(06:48):
and over the last month he's been hitting the ball decently.
I got it plus five seventy five. You can still
get it at that, I think, and I hit all
the way down to plus five hundred, but the spot
is just a good enough one where the odds not
be nearly this high, so I would hit it all
the way down to about four point fifty. But yeah,
I just I'm higher on Royce Lewis when he's playing well.
(07:09):
He's one of those guys that I very much pay
attention to when he's seeing the ball well, just because
he's such an inconsistent bat, and just what he's done
in the last month and a half, going all the
way back to Triple A, it's enough to give me,
have me give him a little bit of a bump
in his overall projections. And having the Crawford boxes there
and having the matchup versus Burrows. I'm rolling with it.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Royce Lewis, Josh Bell, Homer picks from Grant in twins Astros.
We will go to probably the best pitching matchup of
the day. Well, it's definitely the best pitching matchup of
the day in the Bronx Tigers and Yankees. Man the
Tigers offense jumped all over Ryan Weathers last night in
that one. You know, I keep tooting the Tigers horn.
(07:57):
Sean and I both we recorded a if you that
we recorded a Futures Update episode yesterday. This should be
in your podcast feed right now. We talked all things
world series win totals, division winners, pennantce MVPs I, Young
Rookie of the Year, et cetera. And we're both tooting
the horn of Tigers shouldn't sell. I think they're gonna sell,
but I don't think they should. They looked good last night, obviously,
(08:20):
in a big series opening win against the Yankees tonight
Terrek Scouble against Cam Schlittler. Can't get much better than that.
Right now? And you have a side here, Sean.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Yes, side Endototal actually added the under to this game
as well. I have a one hundred and sixty grade
bet section. I added a couple bets late to the
sixty grade section for today. Tigers at plus one twenty
last night certainly popped up at plus one oh eight
where they are currently, would say more of a sixty
grade bet. But I like both the Tigers in the
under in this matchup. Tigers two about plus one ten,
(08:54):
the under seven and a half two about seven at
minus one oh five school my.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
SP three Schlittler.
Speaker 4 (09:02):
I believe my SP six, So I have both of
these guys ranked is elite of the elite.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
I do have Raspis in though sandwiched in between.
Speaker 4 (09:09):
There in the American League have Raspis and rated ever
so slightly better than Cam Schlitzler. Right now, comparing lineup
for lineup, I may actually prefer without Aaron Judge, and
there for the Tiger without Aaron Judge, and there for
the Yankees. And with the Tigers offense mostly back to
full health, I may actually prefer the Tigers offense just
(09:30):
ever so slightly. But I do make this game, and
I make the Tigers slight favorites here at about minus
one oh four would take them to roughly plus one
oh five and then the under seven and a half
at to seven at minus one oh five. Yeah, a
lot of power on that Tiger's offense, but certainly a
lot of swinging mess as well, which is obviously something
(09:51):
that Schlitzler is going to take advantage of. Yankees a
poor defensive team right now, which is surprising to me
because last year I rated them pretty highly defense. The
Tigers bullpens certainly the worst of the two, but I
don't really trust the Yankees bullpen a ton either. I
think the main concern here in terms of picking the side,
in terms of bet any under as well, School just
(10:13):
really hasn't gone past like ninety pitches eighty five pitches.
The Tigers are clearly not pushing him too hard in
the event that they do trade him at the trade deadline,
knowing that he is coming off of that in season
il stint. So that is just the main thing to
watch here. If you see that School pitch count getting
hyped up pretty early and the game hasn't had any runs,
(10:34):
you know, it's zero zero through three, but School is
sitting on seventy five pitches and you know he's not
getting past five. That would be the kind of spot
where I might look at a live over or a
live Yankees team total something like that. Just because he's
not going past one hundred pitches here, he's probably not
going past ninety five pitches, So just worth noting and
keeping that in mind. This is not like seven inning Schooble.
(10:57):
Probably I think if best, you're getting eighteen outs out
of hand and the Tiger's bullpen is going to have
to figure it out from there. But I still show
value on the Tigers regardless Tigers, the minus Tigers, the
plus one oh five, and then the under seven to
minus one oh five between the Tigers and Yankees.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
I just looked it up while you were talking. I
was curious the frequency with which Terrek Scuble is an underdog,
the Tigers are underdogs, and Trek's starts. It happened twice
last year, believe it or not. August second, very very slight,
basically toss up underdogs against the Phillies in a Schooble
Zach Wheeler matchup, and then all the way back to
(11:35):
the opening series of the season March twenty seventh, Blake
Snell against Trek Scuble in Dodgers Tigers. The Tigers were
plus one forty underdogs in that one. They lost that one.
They won the Phillies one.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
So yeah, very ready to get into plus money. Yeah,
you need an elite starting pitcher and a pretty good team.
On the other side, he needs to be on the
road as well.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
Yep, that's what we got here. Uh, we'll go one
more from you here before we get to Grant's last
homer bet of the eighty grade section Cardinals Braves, Matthew
Liberator and Martin Perez in that one. Martin Perez still
hanging on in that brave rotation. We'll see how much longer.
Speaker 4 (12:20):
Yeah, I took the Cardinals here at about plus one forty.
I like them out of plus one thirty. I make
this plus one twenty is sitting at around plus one
thirty right now.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
So again, good CoV.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
But unfortunately, as of the time they're recording, not a
ton of value left at this number. If you want
my bets when I placed them, make sure to follow
me in the action workap. I released these midnight one
am Eastern, and you can get the best numbers when
I put them out there, because generally by morning, as
we've seen the last few days on the show, most
of the value has been sucked out of the line.
I really like this Cardinals offense against left handed pitching.
(12:53):
I like Liberator more earlier in the year. His peripherals
have kind of come down into that mid fours range.
He's gotten a hit hard in his recent starts Martine Press,
you know, carrying an ear rate near three, he's overachieved
by about a full run is expected indicators closer to four.
And as I said, I like this Cardinals offense against
left handed pitching. I give them a minus contact grade,
(13:16):
a minus power grade against left handed pitching, but a
D plus I ratings. So the swing decisions aren't necessarily there,
the batted ball skills are. This is also a very
strong defensive team as well. Braids aren't a bad defensive team.
But I do give the Cardinals the defensive edge.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
The Braves of speed.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
Offensively, they have a little bit of power, but the
swing decisions aren't there for them either, and the contact
is less than what the Cardinals are putting bat on
ball with, so starting pitchers about the same bullpen advantage
Atlanta line up for me at Lantage, for Saint Louis,
for Ronald Lacuna Junior, still out Both teams facing a
(13:53):
left handed starter again, I make the Cardinals about plus
one twenty, would take them two plus one thirty, and
now that it is plus one thirty more of a
sixty grade bet.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
So you know, based upon the.
Speaker 4 (14:04):
Value I have relative to the line, the confidence in
the bet is going to shrink.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
At plus one thirty.
Speaker 4 (14:09):
Don't like it nearly as much as I did at
plus one forty, but I would still take it at
that price. And it remains a bet on today's card
provided we have any or don't have any lineup absences.
It is a Tuesday night, so we should be getting
regular lineups here. I've been getting killed by lineup absences recently.
If you followed me on Sunday, I had a bet
on the A's. They ended up putting Tyler Sodastrom on
(14:30):
the IL on Monday, but they sat him on Sunday.
They also sat in a Kurt surprisingly on Sunday. So
it doesn't get a little iffy if you do not
follow me regularly, if you're just starting to follow me,
it gets a little iffy. Would line up sometimes we're
all have to buy out of a bet, but on
Tuesday night that is very unlikely to occur. So Cardinals
to plus one thirty, and I'd imagine it will stay
on the card.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Yeah, if guys get days off today, it's injury related.
It's not just oh, we need to give this guy
a day off. Trap up the eighty grade section with you.
Guys both have one more bet on the same game, Grant,
I'll go to you first with a dinger bet. We're
going out west to Angels Mariners Jose Soriano against Brian
MoU another nice pitching matchup in this one.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
Yeah. No, and this is strictly a price play, and
I mean it looks like the price is moving pretty drastically.
I don't like this nearly as much as I did earlier.
But zach now I got him at plus six', ten
which seems ridiculous for how good he's actually been over
the last, month month and a, half pretty much the
entire season, long he's one of the better home run
hitters in the. LEAGUE wu has historically been a just
(15:35):
slightly below average matchup FOUR rdy. Power he's been better
this season suppressing, power but he's due for some pretty
heavy regression sitting at think what was, it zero point
sixty six home runs per nine to, rieties which is
very very bad. Matchup but his home run to fly
(15:55):
ball rate is just sitting at six point seven percent
forty percent flyball, rate two percent hard. Contact. Right, yes
he does strikeout, guys had a pretty hefty, clip but
all the underlying numbers show he should probably be right
around average in terms of home runs given up to rieties,
here so netto being as good as he, IS i
have the true odds underplulus five. Hundred you can still
(16:18):
get over plus five hundred right now in one or two,
spots but six' ten number was. Phenomenal play i'd probably
moved this down more towards a sixty great bet at,
this point BUT when i got him at plus, six
ten that was massive.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
Expected Value zach netto to go deep For the Angels,
and sean you are on a side Here In. Angels.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
MARINERS yeah i like.
Speaker 4 (16:40):
The ms to minus one. EIGHTY five i make them
around minus. Two Hundred jose soriano had a Really, good
april Pretty, good may and then he's fallen off pretty Dramatically.
In june looking at the innings and the strikeouts and
Walks in may thirty and two thirds innings, ten walks thirty,
eight strikeouts Pretty elite june or sorry That.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Was.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
April june apologies That.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
Was april This is may, twenty eight two, thirds innings,
fifteen walks twenty, nine strikeouts still. Pretty good two to
one strike up Prnning in june twenty three and two
thirds seventeen mawks twenty four strikeouts against the roughiest strike,
up prnning but now getting walk nearly two of every,
three innings And the marators offense is. Extremely patient still
(17:26):
not hitting, the ball but what they do do, is
walk get guys, on base and then hopefully do not
strike out with the runners on BASE in, t mobile
which is, virtually impossible but eventually hopefully cash those. Runners
in they hit a lot of homers on, you know
when they're, hitting homers they're typically two runners because they
walk so much in front of the guys who. Have
(17:47):
Power So brian wu pitching better, Of Late jose soriano
pitching worse, OF late a pretty big gap between these.
STARTING pitchers I have wu IS my sp. TWENTY five
I have soriano ring trying to see Where if soriana ranked,
eighty eight so right around. LEAGUE average wu IN that sp,
one territory maybe the low end. Sp one, but yeah
(18:09):
as the, ground balls, you know unless the ground Balls.
Bailout soriato with these walks that are coming in, increased
form it seems like he's getting hit four, five runs,
four runs five, shutout innings, five runs, three runs three
runs in his last, six starts so pretty consistently getting
runners home, against them and the ground ball double plays
(18:30):
are not coming. As frequently in the strikeout stuff is
turning into walks a little bit. More frequently Prefer this
mariners offense just, better process better, contact power about, the
same better base running, team defense about the same bullpen
edge certainly For the mariners. As well take them up
to about minus one to eighty five in. This matchup
(18:51):
it's roughly where it's, gone to but a FAVORITE that
i like on. Today's slate you, could also at, current
prices at, current prices full permission to, do this because
it's just compounding the. Edge together so at current prices
at about minus two fifty and For the phillies and
minus one eighty five For, the mariners parlay of that
should pay out at about plus one fifteen plus. One
(19:13):
sixteen that is. Certainly acceptable. To do and in terms
of my fair odds FOR what i would make, THAT
parlay i would say that that should be about plus
one oh six plus one, oh five so plus one
fifteen are better on a parlay With the mariners And.
The phillies perfectly acceptable for today.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
As well love that love a rare u a rare
permission for Parlay, from yes.
Speaker 4 (19:36):
You know as long as both they are getting up
near minus, two hundred combining them into, one edge you
know you don't don't put two units on the bet and,
keep it keep it a one unit bet or whatever
you would size. It normally, but yeah, you know instead
of instead of betting them individually at, smaller edges just
compound the edges and get slightly bigger Payoup.
Speaker 3 (19:53):
Was sorriano man that red hot start to. The season
he leads the majors And, walks, now yeah crazy? Stuf there?
All right that does it for our eighty. Grade section
before we, move on a quick reminder that it is
summer and summer nights with some, soft serve ice cream
and sweating bets. Is good but the way to make
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(20:16):
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Of two, all right two star section here we've got,
fourth well three Totals from sean that he hasn't, talked
about one more side and then two more Homers From
grant sean. Great call last Night In, padres cubs we
(21:01):
had a total sitting there. At twelve we had ninety
degree weather went howling out what that final end? Being
like three? To, two yeah three to two final tonight
they're expecting more of. The same the total sitting at
eleven and. A half WE have jp Sears Against. Matthew
boyd are you betting Into the wrigley wind trend or
are you going back to the well with what you?
Speaker 1 (21:24):
Did?
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Yesterday yeah unfortunately going back to.
Speaker 4 (21:26):
THE well i hate Betting These wrigley field weather you,
know totals but maybe because you know the. Weather is
as we, discussed yesterday the weather expected to be so extreme,
notches yesterday but for the ensuing four or five days
and the rest of the week here it looks like
it's gonna be blowing out like this. AND warm i
(21:47):
think books were extra wise to the fact and probably
jacked these up a little bit higher than they. Should
be we're going to be Getting another i'm going to
be giving out another weather ANTI correlated i guess whether
oriented un in a moment on a GAME that i
think is slightly, too high but this one was too high.
FOR me i make this closer to around ten and
A half i'd bet or ten point. TWENTY five i
(22:10):
bet the under eleven to minus. ONE twenty i got
under eleven and a half at minus one p fifteen,
last night second Start for jpcies got absolutely lit up in.
The minors look okay in his start Against, the braves
did pitch out of trouble. Three times but the thing
is the same thing from. Me yesterday as long As
this potter's bullpen gets into this game and it's four,
(22:31):
to three, you know in the. Sixth inning i'm gonna
feel pretty good about these bullpens being able to hold
this game to four runs or fewer over the final.
Three innings there's just enough, strikeout stuff especially In the,
potterys bullpen to Neutralize the cups late a little bit
more worried about A shaky cubs bullpen going up Against
a podreys offense that has a decent amount of contact
(22:53):
and just having contact and win like this can certainly
allow the ball to. Carry out but the padres one
of my lowest rated. Power teams cubs much. More power
these are two great defensive teams, as WELL as i.
Discussed yesterday so in the event that you do have,
some homers hopefully some stolen base hits have happened just
before that to keep it solo shots instead of two
(23:15):
or three. RUN bombs i make, this again ten point
twenty five would be the under eleven two minus one
twenty five took eleven and a half. Last night the
under eleven and a half would be nice to get
the hook, on it because it certainly ends six to
five at a decently. High clip, but yeah zagging on the,
weather here big bullpen differential and big bullpen advantage For,
the padres but no edge on the side because the
(23:37):
difference in the bullpens is comparable to the difference in
the starting pitchers For. The cubs cubs big starting Pitching
edge pottery's big bullpen Edge lineups cubs, slight edge but
not enough to push it to. Either side so under
eleven to minus one twenty.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
The books jacking up the Total. AT wrigly i would
imagine that the homer prices have been similarly Suppressed, at
wrigley which Is why grant doesn't Have Any cubs padres
bets on. His card he does have a bet on
his cards for The other. Chicago team man after my,
Own Heart White sox Orioles in, Baltimore Tonight eric Fetti Against,
trey gibson and you Like A white sox hitter who's
(24:14):
probably going to Be An.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
All star he absolutely deserves. To be he's been phenomenal.
This Season It's. Miguel vargas vargas has. Been great you
can give him at plus four to twenty five. RIGHT
now i believe it's still. The line the spot's a good.
One here gibson has been not great at suppressing power
and short sample size. This season obviously we can't really
(24:37):
do much with, thirty innings but he grdes out us
right around an average matchup for, righty power which in
any given scenario would be Far too vargus being over
plus four hundred be far. Too high but the weather
is phenomenal for. Hitting today tempts right around ninety degrees during,
game time wind blowing out to left at ten miles.
(24:57):
AN hour i don't love that ballpark for, right power
but when we're getting these odds in a plus Spot,
for vargas it just seems. Absolutely SILLY so i hit
it all the way down to around plus three seventy in.
This spot so getting over plus four hundred.
Speaker 3 (25:12):
Is Great The white sox fourteen and Twelve Since munataka
morikami went out of, the lineup which a lot of people,
didn't EXPECT and I Think miguel vargas is a big reason.
For that thank you for affording me an opportunity to
talk About The white sox on, the SHOW as i
attempt to do in every. Single, episode sean you alluded
to another anti anti weather bet on, your card. ANOTHER
(25:38):
total i haven't looked at the weather in. This One
raise Royals In, Kansas City griffin Jacks And. Noah cameron
we have a sky high. Total here we have a
total in double, Digits HERE so i imagine it's looking appealing
for people who. Want Offense but i'm, guessing again just Like,
in chicago you think this is a tad. TOO high.
Speaker 4 (25:56):
I do i took ten and a half. Last night
it has come down to. Ten today actually maybe out
of range for, a BET because i only like it
to ten at about minus one oh five ninety three
degrees at first pitch win fifteen miles an hour blowing
out to left, field here so definitely seemingly, offensive weather
but not really, the lineups especially on the, race side
(26:19):
not really the lineups that take advantage. Of It, junior
caminaro we'll get a slaveh boost, Today Obviously, yanda diaz,
you know more capable of putting one out with the
wind blowing out to. Left field the walls that they
moved in coffin were in, right field so it's not
blowing towards that shortened, distance either which is definitely slightly helpful.
For today But the raise an elite, contact team have
(26:40):
them as one of my worst, power Teams so they're
not the team to take advantage of great weather. Like
This the royals certainly are set up more.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
For That THE.
Speaker 4 (26:48):
Royals i give pretty elite plate discipline and one of
my higher power grades after THEM at b, PLUS power
A PLUS i c, plus contact which is pretty good
considering the. POWER grades I think Jack hag lee own
we're seeing in the midst of a breakout. Right now
there's a lot of power up and down, that ROSTER
but i Like the rays pitching staff to keep them.
IN check i know We Discussed griffin jack. Sister day
(27:09):
you had some reservations that he could continue to pitch
as well as he had or maybe would. WEAR down
i think that's the likelier thing that happened. TO him
i think he may wear down later in, the season but,
right Now and i've Been spec I've been i've been
skeptical that he can be a starting pitcher and an effective.
(27:29):
STARTING pitcher I think i'm coming around. TO it i
think he's turning into a bit Of a kentamaita, type
guy where he has two elite, secondary pitches a sweeper,
change up both sitting around at two sixty. Five wolba
both have a forty one percent, with rate and if
he can have two plus, SECONDARY pitches i think he
could be an effective five and dive guy and get
(27:52):
through a lineup multiple times and then come out of
the game and turn things over to a very good.
Raised Bullpen noah cameron also started out the year rough
has really rounded into form of late excellent curveball for
him last. Five starts has given up runs in some,
of them but overall the expected indicators for him have
come closer to. League AVERAGE so I Think Grick griffin
(28:13):
jack slightly. ABOVE average i think he's getting into that,
number two low end, number two high end number. THREE
range I Think noah cameron is very much a solid,
number three maybe a good, number four but a. SOLID
three i make this total about nine point seven, to
five so under ten actually to, even money but to
(28:33):
minus one oh five is fine for me in. THIS
matchup i think the weather helps the race or the
weather Helps the royals offense a little bit more than
it Does the. Rais offense But the rays have the
better pitching here throughout. This matchup so no side for
me on. This GAME but i do like the under
to ten at minus one, oh five just in. The
sixty great, bet section because despite adjusting this as MUCH as,
(28:55):
I could i still can't quite get to that ten
and a. Half number clearly correct in terms of, my
adjustment because the market moved off of the ten and
a half. As well but this is a bit of
a unique weather Spot For. KANSAS city i don't want
to underrate the potential weather factor and be completely against
it here because this is it's extreme weather for a,
ball park and this is the kind of stuff it's
(29:17):
getting very Close. To july we're Essentially in, july now
so this is the kind of weather that you only
See in July. And august and this is unique offensive
boost and we probably do get some homers tonight in
the LIKELIHOOD that i win both of the totals Between
the cubs game and this game about fifty to fifty
considering where you know the, odds are but just in
terms of like where these are going. To go if they,
(29:38):
go over they're going to go. Way over so if
you like the, OVERS here i would go alt overs
instead of the over ten and a half. Or whatever
i'd be looking at over twelve and, a half, you
KNOW except i would be looking at bigger plus, juice,
HERE bets i wouldn't be looking at the flat ten
or ten and.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
A half i think it. Goes over it's going to go.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
Way, over well you alluded to the possibility of Homers In,
kansas city so it's a nice Segue to grant's final
home run beat of. The slate it comes from, this
game and you already mentioned him sean a big breakout
For the royals, this Year and grant you like him
to go.
Speaker 1 (30:11):
Deep, Tonight yeah I'VE been i was waiting for, so
long pretty much all, last season in first few months,
this Season for kaglion to finally. BREAK out, i mean
the all the underlying number power numbers have been pretty
darn good for him since he came into, the league
and now it's finally starting. To show got a seventeen
percent barrel rate on. The season Matchup versus jacks IS just,
(30:34):
I mean jackson's actually been hit pretty hard by a lefties,
this year giving up a one point seventy two home run,
Per nine but he's due for some positive aggression grades
out as a round and average maybe slightly above average
matchup four. Lefty power he's got some, good stuff but
the weather is just far too good Over In kansas,
city today low nineties wind blowing out at twelve miles.
(30:56):
AN hour i should be around a twenty to twenty
five percent boost to. Home runs jack getting him at
plus four hundred plus four to TEN where i got
it is just far. Too high he's just been, so
good the underlying stuff has been so good, this season
and the weather is finally starting to get really Good In.
Kansas city so just give him the. SPOT here i
(31:17):
have a strods around plus three. To fifty you can
still get a plus four hundred number out there, right
NOW but i would hit it all the way down plus.
Speaker 4 (31:24):
THREE fifty i always think About the echier. Row Joke
bob costa ask him on air, each row what's your?
Favorite joke this Say is august Is In kansas city
is hotter than two rats fucking at.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
A wolfsock so.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
This time, of year it certainly seems to be the Case.
Poor england england's national team got stationed Up In kansas City.
In june those dudes were like dying in the, Heat
there so Get the european su. Air conditioning they seem
to really be struggling in the midst Of The world.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
Cup trouble, All, right sean you got one, more side
one more total to get. To us Both Out West,
Athletics Dodgers justin Robleski And jeffrey springs to. Crafty lefties
one has been, finding success one. Has not maybe neither find.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Success, tonight yeah hopefully TWELVE runs i believe in this game.
Last night thirteen runs in this game. Last night hopefully
we get.
Speaker 4 (32:21):
More tonight temperature is going to be around ninety degrees at,
first pitch and we have the wind blowing out straight
to centerfield at about ten miles an hour in. This
game this is the type of temperatures and wind that
we had Discussed At Sutter health park in the past
really boost the offensive. Run Environment justin robleski has continued
(32:42):
to Outperform is era or outperform his underlying Indicators e
raver around Two seven sierra of four. Point six it's
The Biggest era Era versus sierra gap for any of
the fifteen or thirty starting pitchers on.
Speaker 2 (32:56):
Today's slate so.
Speaker 4 (32:59):
Seemingly a regression candidate by the, underlying metrics has pitched
a little bit better, of LATE but i still think
he's closer to a league average starter around a four
to four to one weighted fit projection as opposed to
a sub, three guy even as opposed to a mid.
Threes Guy so robleski closer to average, For me springs
closer to. Replacement level his weighted fit projection is still
around four, to five but the actual era of five
(33:20):
point five expected fit four, five zero four to four
those are kind of masking that he's pitched warps over
the past five six starts strike up minus walk right dip.
Below average expected indicators have come up closer to. That
ERA so I think robleski worse than he's pitched, To
day springs worse than the underlying indicators says he. SHOULD
(33:41):
be i think the era is actually more accurate in
terms of what. He's doing four. Steamer sweeper his entire
arsenal really just. GETTING crushed i don't really see many
Pitches for springs to use to Get this dodter's offense
out with that crush gates. Jump yesterday he was also
the left, handed starters and overal concerns about the lefty
righty stuff For. The, DODGERS sometimes i do, you KNOW
(34:03):
sometimes i think they get shut down. BY lefties i
don't necessarily think that's going to be the, case tonight,
but yeah the big offensive boost in terms of the
wind and the temperatures and the weather blowing out two elite.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Power offenses two of my.
Speaker 4 (34:17):
Best offenses, FOR power i Give the DODGERS an A
grade i give The, d BACKS or i Give the
dime Give the ATHLETICS an a. Plus grade dodgers just
have more contact, with it and the a slightly more
played discipline. With it so, more contact similar power For,
the dodgers better swing decisions For, the dodgers better defense For.
(34:39):
The DODGERS but i make this total about ten. Point
five i'd bet the over eleven to minus one. TO
ten i upgraded that from minus one. Oh five doctors
have some guys out in their bullpen. As well do
project is the much. Better bullpen, but yeah things get
a little bit. Wonky here you may need the runs,
EARLY though i mean we see oftentimes in, this park
and this is. Worth noting make it a lot of,
(35:01):
runs early and then as the temperature start to dip
down later in, the game it's gonna be ninety at,
first pitch it's gonna be closer to eighty by the
end of, the game so as the game progresses along
may become a little bit more difficult to score if
you get a lot of. Early scoring considers zagging to
alive under once this gets into, the bullpens but pregame
over ten and a half to eleven minus one ten
(35:22):
Between the dodgers' knais and.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
Then wrap us up with your. Final. Side here in
the latest game on The Slate, Giants diamondbacks brandon fought
back in the rotation For, the snakes land and roop
pitching For the giants in.
Speaker 4 (35:37):
This, ONE yeah i think this is more OF a
i just prefer The d backs To the giants THING
because i make this game minus. One twenty i'm not
High whatsoever brandon. FOUGHT anymore i used to love brand.
And fought the metrics this year are absolutely. A mess
strike up minus, Walk rate he's dipped below the manjor.
League average he used to be a guy who is
around a fifteen percent strike up minus walk rate averages around.
(35:58):
Eleven percent this year he's closer to. Nine percent and
he used to be a guy who would be better
than average strike up on his, walk rape but would
give up a lot of. Hard contact now both, are
happening so definitely. A CONCERN but i much prefer The d,
backs BULLPEN and i definitely prefer their offense and their
offensive philosophy. As well a CONTACT grade d plus, power
(36:22):
grade but a MUCH better, i rating, swing. Decisions etc
and a much better defensive and base running team Than.
The giants this IS something i discussed yesterday as well
in terms of betting. The over anytime these teams, match
up The d backs are going to be the much better,
defensive team the much better based, running team put the
ball in play, more frequently and also have the better,
(36:43):
Bullpen too so on a, team perspective there's a lot
OF advantages i See. For arizona didn't have a bet
on them YESTERDAY because i Projected e rod WORSE than
i think the market thinks that. He, is obviously they
ended up winning the GAME and i ended up catching,
the over but probably wrong about the wrought assessment in
terms of yesterday's game specifically. For, today surprisingly EVEN though
(37:05):
i make fought so much WORSE that i, MAKE group
i still show value On. The Diamondbacks so arizona two
about minus one in a GAME where i make the minus.
One thirty first five innings may, be sweaty but once
this gets into, THE bullpens i think their offense takes.
Speaker 3 (37:20):
Over, all right that'll do it for today's Episode Of.
Payoff pitch thanks so much for. Tuning in you'd like
to tail some of the bets from, today's episode look
for the quick suplinks in the. Episode description don't forget
to download the free Award Winning action, network app and
also please leave us a five star rating and review
wherever you listen to. The podcast we will be Back
on friday with another Episode, For Grant need for And.
(37:41):
Shun Zilla I'm. Colin richard thanks so much for Listening
To Payoff Pitch action Networks Major League baseball, betting podcast
and good luck with all. Your bests turt this crowd on?
His street what? A? Tribute now what wants to me
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