August 14, 2026 • 19 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch and Derek Carty break down the Friday MLB slate, diving into sides, totals and player props. Using the MLB 20–80 scouting scale, they grade their most confident plays and highlight where they’re finding the most value across the board. Tune in to hear their top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Rate, review and subscribe to the show wherever you watch or listen so you don't miss us every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
1 - 80-GRADE BETS
7 - 60-GRADE BETS
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Flying, thankful, no crying, and this game is underway. The
line up it is spring stop bringing Josh the bit outside.
Here's a drive in a deep leftfield by Castianos. It
will be a home run. And hello, good coming up.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
You talk about a.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Roll at the dice, this is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch Action Networks, Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Friday, August fourteenth. I'm Collin Whitchurch, joined today
by Derek Cardi, creator of the bat x projection system,
and we are going to break down this busy Friday
MLB slate. The Field of Dreams game is behind us
(00:55):
last night. I'm sure folks caught any of that. I
did not. I was at a movie. But we don't
have a full Friday slate because of that. The Twins
and Phillies are off today, traveling back to Minnesota where
they'll finish their series starting tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
So it's a.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Fourteen game slate, a little bit of a light slate
in terms of bet volume today, but that's okay. We're
gonna go through our best, our favorite bets from this
slate and get you out of here and onto this
rest of this busy Friday, there is one afternoon game
Cardinals and Cubs aret Wrigley this afternoon to twenty Eastern.
I don't think we have any bets from that game.
Rest of them are under the lights tonight, so let's
(01:33):
jump right into it. Looks like Derek has two eighty
grade bets and then we've got four more in the
sixty grade section. So we're six bets for you total today,
and Derek, let's start in Anaheim Royal's Angels O man
for a late season matchup. This one is ugly to
(01:54):
teams well out of contention looking at next year. And
one of the pitchers that the Angels are looking at
probably these next two months, even if he's part of
their future plans is Grayson Rodriguez, and you have a
bet on him tonight.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
Yes, I am betting on Grayson Rodriguez to record the
win plus two sixty three at DraftKings best odds on
the board, and I like it down to plus one
ninety five. Grayson Rodriguez has not looked very good. He
has an ERA over seven, uh, but he's definitely been
getting unlucky to an extent. I mean, he's not like
(02:30):
showing anything remotely similar to the pedigree that he came
with when he was a prospect for Baltimore. But he's
not a seven era pitcher. He's more of like a
four and a half era pitcher in a pretty good
matchup here against against a weak team, and I think
if you're doing game log hunting on this, he's only
(02:50):
had one win since he came off the IL in July,
and I think we're getting offered good odds because of that,
where this is a spot where you know the Angels
are bad, but so are the Royals, And this is
a spot where I think Grace Rodriguez has a better
chance than we're being offered to record the win here.
I haven't projected to record the win thirty seven percent
(03:15):
of the time, and so at two sixty three, we
are getting good odds.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
And hey, as bad as Grace Rodriguez maybe he's been
in his first season in Anaheim, the guy that the
Angels traded for him has already been traded again, Taylor
Ward for the Orioles. So it didn't exactly work out
for Baltimore either, uh in that deal this offseason, Grace
Rodriguez to record a win Derek's first bet on today's slate,
your other eighty grade bet. This is We've talked a
(03:43):
few times about what exactly constitutes a Derek Cardi Special.
There's a couple of them. One of such way is
fading an Ace, a top tier starting pitcher. The other
one is making a bet on a guy who I
have to look up what Teamy plays for. That's where
we're going today. This is a bet in Giants Rockies
(04:05):
the late game of tonight starting at ten fifteen Eastern
in San Francisco, and you are fading.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Some dude, some dude. I am fading Victor Barricado under
half of a hit plus two oh two at bet
three six five's the best odds on the board. There's
also a one sixty eight at DraftKings. That's good. I
like it down to plus one ninety plus one fifty
nine or so. Barricado is obviously kind of a no
(04:36):
name guy. You had to look up where he plays,
not a particularly good hitter facing a lefty today, and
Kyle Freeland. Freeland's not especially good either, but not as
bad as his overall numbers indicate, because he does play
half his games and course field and most importantly, here,
Barricado has a forty eight percent chance of getting pinch
hit four once the bullpen comes in. And so if
(04:59):
you're projecting him for only three plate appearances or so
like I am, if you're getting you know, plus two
hundred on that, you're being offered good odds. So I
will I will bet the under on Barricado here.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
I was waiting to hear what the pinch hit risk
number was, knew that it would factor in to this
Victor Barracoto bet today. And I don't like, to be clear,
I don't like admitting I've never heard of a player
I follow baseball more than ninety nine point nine percent
of the people that I know. So when a guy
(05:31):
to be, if he plays for the Giants, it's a
big part of it in this one. They are a
very forgettable team this year, but give Barracoto his due.
Twenty four year old Venezuelan outfielder, first baseman. He's actually
got a seven eighty four ops this year, one seventeen
ops plus, nice old debut season, I guess for a
team that doesn't have much going for it this year,
(05:54):
but we're looking for him to have a couple of
hitless pas against Freeland and then get out of the
game and get us to the window with a win
on this Friday. That is the eighty grade betting section
from Derek Today. And before we move on, don't forget
to sign up for Action Pro for real time pick
(06:16):
alerts from experts like Derek Cardi, Sean Zarillo, Grant Niffer,
and our entire Action Network team. Plus you can access
our pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive
analytics team. Just go to actionetwork dot com slash pro
and get twenty dollars off the annual price with the
promo code pod twenty. So don't miss out on the
(06:36):
best bets at the best prices. Visit actionetwork dot com
slash Pro use promo code pod twenty at sign up
to get twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro.
All right, let's move on to the sixty grade section.
And you know I just mentioned it. You have your
your obscure hitter who has the pinch hit risk, and
(06:57):
then we have Aces on the mound. There's a co
aces you could have chose from to that maybe popped
in your model today is pitching today Chase Burns is
pitching today. Gavin Williams, Garrett Cole, oh, Yoshnobiyamamoto all on
the mound today. But we are going to Braves and
(07:21):
Diamondbacks in Atlanta today for a bet. You have Fading,
a former Cy Young winner.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Yep, Fading Chris Sale today under six and a half
strikeouts plus one oh five at DraftKings. I like it
down to minus one twenty. Uh. This is, like you said,
kind of a Derek Hardy special. It's a gross one.
It's a scary one. We don't like to bet against
Chris Sale because Chris Sale is really, really good. I
have nothing bad to say about Chris Sale. But a
(07:49):
lot of times what we see with these Ace pitchers
is that the books realize nobody wants to bet against
the Ace pictures, and so the lines are kind of
shaded in that direction and you're being offered value on
the other side. And that's what we're getting today with
Chris Sale facing a Diamondbacks lineup that is very, very
low strikeout these days. So the under strikeouts on Sale
(08:10):
today is where the value is being offered.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Chris Sale under six and a half strikeouts, I definitely
that one just feels really sharp today. Love these these
spots where books maybe are overvaluing the top line starting pitchers.
From one top line starting pitcher to a guy who
I think a lot of people thought would be a
top line starting pitcher, hasn't happened for him yet. Rangers
A's and Sacramento, we've got Kumar Rocker on the mound
(08:36):
against Gage Jump and you've got to strikeout prop here
as well.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Yep, looking at Kumar Rocker under four and a half strikeouts,
minus one fifteen at bet three sixty five is the
best odds on the board. There's also minus one thirty
at FanDuel I like it down to minus one forty five. Rocker,
like you said, was a prospect with real pedigree, hasn't
panned out. His stuff has gotten a little bit worse
(09:01):
this year, even in this really tough hitting environment or
really tough pitching environment rather in Sacramento. The bad X
is projecting the number here three point nine strikeouts for
Kumar Rocker facing an athletics team that it depends on
what lineup you get and what time of the year
(09:23):
it's been, because at times it's been like an extremely
strikeout heavy lineup. At times, it's been very low strikeout
right now, it's more of a low strikeout approach that
they've been going with lately, especially the projected lineup today.
So definitely what we're looking at here with Rocker is
the under.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
I have a very vivid Kumar Rocker memory actually sitting
at a bar outside of the Rangers new old Stadium. Coincidentally,
since he pitches for the Rangers now in twenty nineteen,
when he was a freshman at Vanderbilt, watching on TV
him throw a nineteen strikeout no hitter against Duke in
the Super Regionals. He was a freshman at Vanderbilt and
(10:04):
just being like this guy, like I was like, oh,
it's the next Steven Strasburg or something like that. You know,
hasn't quite worked out, But yeah, that was a seven
years ago at this point for Kumar Raker, a nineteen
strikeout no hitter. Hopefully he has fewer strikeouts tonight to
take us to the window. All pitching props from here
(10:27):
on out, for usually is fun pitching matchup. I'm very
partial to Chase Burns. I'm going to tune into the
Reds anytime Chase Burns pitches he's facing Sandy al Contra,
who used to he was my Chase Burns before Chase Burns.
I would tune in anytime Sandy pitched. Coincidentally, I just
locked in a bed in the action app on the
first five over three and a half in this game.
(10:50):
That is, as of this as of us talking, the
top total slash money line edge in Sean Zrillo's Bartolo tool,
which can access with a Pro subscription, is the over
in the first five innings, which kind of surprised me
with these two starting pitchers, but generally trust Sean's model,
and the bet you have in this game is kind
(11:11):
of kind of in line with that, in that you
you don't expect one of these guys to go too
deep in the game.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Yeah, no, I love that bet. If if that were
to happen, that would be very good for us here.
Betting on Sandy Alcontra under eighteen and a half outs
minus one point fifteen at hard Rock is the best
odds on the board. It's also a point off at DraftKings,
and I like it down to like I mean, theoretically
the projection says minus two hundred or so, which I
(11:41):
don't know if I'd actually take it down that far,
but like, this is one that I keep going back to,
and it hasn't been working out much lately. I think
he's gone over this number in I think like five
of his last seven games or something like that. He
just keeps going deep into games, keeps pitching well. I'm
(12:04):
just not a believer in Sandy though. Like, I don't
think he's the same guy he used to be. His
overall numbers, his uh, you know, his strikeouts and walks
or strikeouts rather, are are down lower than they used
to be. His stuff numbers are lower than they used
to be. But he just keeps doing this Sandy out
contra thing. I don't I don't think he's for real.
(12:25):
He's not a three to five era pitcher. The way
he's been pitching, I think he's you know, every single
projected system on Fangrafts has him over four. The bad
X has him over four and a half. It's it's
just I'm not buying Sandy. They will let him go
deep if he's pitching well. But uh, today, going into
Cincinnati Great American Ballpark eighty eighty one degrees, there definitely
(12:49):
hitting Weather. I am going with the under here again
on Sandy, and I'm hoping that it's gonna gonna do
him be better than it has the last few times.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
I mean that is kind of It can feel like
you're bashing your head against a brick wall sometimes when
it's not working out in your favor for a couple starts.
But it is a credit to models like yours that
they don't overreact to streaks. You know they're still seeing.
They don't care. Your model doesn't care that he has
gone over eighteen outs in or gone eighteen outs or
(13:19):
more in seven straight starts or whatever. It's looking at
everything else and saying, just because it happened before, it
doesn't mean it's more likely to happen in the future. Yeah,
he's gone. What was it? I was just looking at
his Gamelog game Loog Hunting, which everyone loves to do. One, two, three, four, five, six,
(13:40):
seven straight starts where he's gone eighteen outs or more,
and five of those seven he's gone to at least
twenty one outs, So a lot of length for Sandy.
L Contra stayed in Miami at the trade deadline, got
a team option for one more year. There. I think
he just became the Marlins all time leader, and I
think inning pitched or something like that. Definitely a legend
(14:03):
there in Miami at this point. But yeah, his stuff
is not nearly what it was during that Cy Young
campaign back in twenty twenty two. All Right, one more
bet today, a picture of slightly less renowned than Sandiel Contra.
We're going to Nationals Mets in Queens. I actually like
(14:27):
this guy you're betting on quite a bit. I've had
I've streamed him a couple times in fantasy. Curious to
hear your analysis here because the one knock I've seen
on him is the Nats haven't really let him go
that deep into games, but we're gonna need him to
go at least five innings tonight to cast your bet.
(14:47):
So where are you on the Nats starter tonight?
Speaker 2 (14:51):
Yeah, Andrew Alvarez to record a win. Plus two eighty
six at DraftKings is the best odds on the board.
I have it good down to plus two thirty si Evan,
Like you said, the biggest knock on him is he
going to be able to go five innings. There have
been starts where he's pitching well and they just pull
him early. That's baked into the projection you know, we
(15:13):
know that that's a possibility, but the projection still likes
the chance of him to record a win here. A
lot of that has to do with one he's a
good pitcher. The bad X has his context neutral era
under four, which is really good these days. Facing Robert
Stock of the Mets, who I absolutely love as a person.
(15:34):
He's part of the baseball analytics community, very active on Twitter.
Not the best major league pitcher. I think the Nats
get to him a little bit. I think they give
Alvarez a lead and hopefully Alvarez can stay into the
fifth inning. So that's what we're hoping for here.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
Yeah, Big Bob Stock. Love that he's still hanging around
at the age of thirty six, getting these cups across
A great.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
Story like him just being in the majors now and
making starts is so awesome.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
I love seeing it me too.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
Yeah, gotta stay objective.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Yeah, bounced around a lot in the early twenty twenties,
pitched in Korea, pitched in Mexico. His only logged eighty
three career major leaguetings here at the age of thirty six.
But still, Yeah, he's become something of a legend in
the baseball analytics community as a as an active major
league pitcher who engages with kind of more advanced level
(16:35):
of thinking in the same vein as like the Sean
Doolittle a couple of years ago, right a big online
baseball presence. But Andrew Alvarez is the guy here that
we are betting on. Has gone more than five innings
each of his last two starts, so maybe the Nationals
are giving him a little more length. Looks like he's
topped out at ninety seven pitches back in early July,
(16:58):
so he's got the ability to go deep into games.
Needs to go at least five. Nats need to hang
on for the win for him if the offense can
back him, and that is what we will be looking
for tonight. Six bets from Derek Cardi quick recap a
couple pitcher wins bets here Grayson Rodriguez to record a
(17:18):
win plus two sixty three Andrewelverrez again to record a
win plus two eighty six strikeout props. Chris Saiale under
six and a half strikeouts, Kumar Rocker under four and
a half strikeouts. We have Sandy el Contra under eighteen
and a half outs recorded and one hitter prop up
there in the eighty grade section Victor Bearracoto to not
record a hit plus two oh two. That is our
(17:41):
betting card for this Friday MLB slate. That'll do it
for today's episode. Thanks so much for tuning in. We'd
like to tell some of the bets from this episode.
Look for the quick slip links in the episode description.
Don't forget to download the free, award winning Action Network app. Also,
please leave us a five star rating interview wherever you
listen to the podcast, it is very very much appreciated.
(18:03):
If you're watching on YouTube, hit that like button leave
us a comment on let us know what bets you're tailing,
what bets you're fading, what other bets you might like.
Today can help us out quite a bit as well.
We'll be back on Monday with another episode. Sean Zrillo
back in here as we get into mid August. Down
the stretch here this twenty twenty six season for Derek Cardi.
(18:27):
I'm Colin Richard. Thanks so much for listening to Payoff
Pitch Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast. Good luck
with all your bets and have a great weekend. Put
(18:52):
this crowd on his feet. What a trigger?
Speaker 2 (18:55):
No one watch
Flying, thankful, no crying, and this game is underway. The
line up it is spring stop bringing Josh the bit outside.
Here's a drive in a deep leftfield by Castianos. It
will be a home run. And hello, good coming up.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
You talk about a.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Roll at the dice, this is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch Action Networks, Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Friday, August fourteenth. I'm Collin Whitchurch, joined today
by Derek Cardi, creator of the bat x projection system,
and we are going to break down this busy Friday
MLB slate. The Field of Dreams game is behind us
(00:55):
last night. I'm sure folks caught any of that. I
did not. I was at a movie. But we don't
have a full Friday slate because of that. The Twins
and Phillies are off today, traveling back to Minnesota where
they'll finish their series starting tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
So it's a.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Fourteen game slate, a little bit of a light slate
in terms of bet volume today, but that's okay. We're
gonna go through our best, our favorite bets from this
slate and get you out of here and onto this
rest of this busy Friday, there is one afternoon game
Cardinals and Cubs aret Wrigley this afternoon to twenty Eastern.
I don't think we have any bets from that game.
Rest of them are under the lights tonight, so let's
(01:33):
jump right into it. Looks like Derek has two eighty
grade bets and then we've got four more in the
sixty grade section. So we're six bets for you total today,
and Derek, let's start in Anaheim Royal's Angels O man
for a late season matchup. This one is ugly to
(01:54):
teams well out of contention looking at next year. And
one of the pitchers that the Angels are looking at
probably these next two months, even if he's part of
their future plans is Grayson Rodriguez, and you have a
bet on him tonight.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
Yes, I am betting on Grayson Rodriguez to record the
win plus two sixty three at DraftKings best odds on
the board, and I like it down to plus one
ninety five. Grayson Rodriguez has not looked very good. He
has an ERA over seven, uh, but he's definitely been
getting unlucky to an extent. I mean, he's not like
(02:30):
showing anything remotely similar to the pedigree that he came
with when he was a prospect for Baltimore. But he's
not a seven era pitcher. He's more of like a
four and a half era pitcher in a pretty good
matchup here against against a weak team, and I think
if you're doing game log hunting on this, he's only
(02:50):
had one win since he came off the IL in July,
and I think we're getting offered good odds because of that,
where this is a spot where you know the Angels
are bad, but so are the Royals, And this is
a spot where I think Grace Rodriguez has a better
chance than we're being offered to record the win here.
I haven't projected to record the win thirty seven percent
(03:15):
of the time, and so at two sixty three, we
are getting good odds.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
And hey, as bad as Grace Rodriguez maybe he's been
in his first season in Anaheim, the guy that the
Angels traded for him has already been traded again, Taylor
Ward for the Orioles. So it didn't exactly work out
for Baltimore either, uh in that deal this offseason, Grace
Rodriguez to record a win Derek's first bet on today's slate,
your other eighty grade bet. This is We've talked a
(03:43):
few times about what exactly constitutes a Derek Cardi Special.
There's a couple of them. One of such way is
fading an Ace, a top tier starting pitcher. The other
one is making a bet on a guy who I
have to look up what Teamy plays for. That's where
we're going today. This is a bet in Giants Rockies
(04:05):
the late game of tonight starting at ten fifteen Eastern
in San Francisco, and you are fading.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Some dude, some dude. I am fading Victor Barricado under
half of a hit plus two oh two at bet
three six five's the best odds on the board. There's
also a one sixty eight at DraftKings. That's good. I
like it down to plus one ninety plus one fifty
nine or so. Barricado is obviously kind of a no
(04:36):
name guy. You had to look up where he plays,
not a particularly good hitter facing a lefty today, and
Kyle Freeland. Freeland's not especially good either, but not as
bad as his overall numbers indicate, because he does play
half his games and course field and most importantly, here,
Barricado has a forty eight percent chance of getting pinch
hit four once the bullpen comes in. And so if
(04:59):
you're projecting him for only three plate appearances or so
like I am, if you're getting you know, plus two
hundred on that, you're being offered good odds. So I
will I will bet the under on Barricado here.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
I was waiting to hear what the pinch hit risk
number was, knew that it would factor in to this
Victor Barracoto bet today. And I don't like, to be clear,
I don't like admitting I've never heard of a player
I follow baseball more than ninety nine point nine percent
of the people that I know. So when a guy
(05:31):
to be, if he plays for the Giants, it's a
big part of it in this one. They are a
very forgettable team this year, but give Barracoto his due.
Twenty four year old Venezuelan outfielder, first baseman. He's actually
got a seven eighty four ops this year, one seventeen
ops plus, nice old debut season, I guess for a
team that doesn't have much going for it this year,
(05:54):
but we're looking for him to have a couple of
hitless pas against Freeland and then get out of the
game and get us to the window with a win
on this Friday. That is the eighty grade betting section
from Derek Today. And before we move on, don't forget
to sign up for Action Pro for real time pick
(06:16):
alerts from experts like Derek Cardi, Sean Zarillo, Grant Niffer,
and our entire Action Network team. Plus you can access
our pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive
analytics team. Just go to actionetwork dot com slash pro
and get twenty dollars off the annual price with the
promo code pod twenty. So don't miss out on the
(06:36):
best bets at the best prices. Visit actionetwork dot com
slash Pro use promo code pod twenty at sign up
to get twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro.
All right, let's move on to the sixty grade section.
And you know I just mentioned it. You have your
your obscure hitter who has the pinch hit risk, and
(06:57):
then we have Aces on the mound. There's a co
aces you could have chose from to that maybe popped
in your model today is pitching today Chase Burns is
pitching today. Gavin Williams, Garrett Cole, oh, Yoshnobiyamamoto all on
the mound today. But we are going to Braves and
(07:21):
Diamondbacks in Atlanta today for a bet. You have Fading,
a former Cy Young winner.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Yep, Fading Chris Sale today under six and a half
strikeouts plus one oh five at DraftKings. I like it
down to minus one twenty. Uh. This is, like you said,
kind of a Derek Hardy special. It's a gross one.
It's a scary one. We don't like to bet against
Chris Sale because Chris Sale is really, really good. I
have nothing bad to say about Chris Sale. But a
(07:49):
lot of times what we see with these Ace pitchers
is that the books realize nobody wants to bet against
the Ace pictures, and so the lines are kind of
shaded in that direction and you're being offered value on
the other side. And that's what we're getting today with
Chris Sale facing a Diamondbacks lineup that is very, very
low strikeout these days. So the under strikeouts on Sale
(08:10):
today is where the value is being offered.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Chris Sale under six and a half strikeouts, I definitely
that one just feels really sharp today. Love these these
spots where books maybe are overvaluing the top line starting pitchers.
From one top line starting pitcher to a guy who
I think a lot of people thought would be a
top line starting pitcher, hasn't happened for him yet. Rangers
A's and Sacramento, we've got Kumar Rocker on the mound
(08:36):
against Gage Jump and you've got to strikeout prop here
as well.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Yep, looking at Kumar Rocker under four and a half strikeouts,
minus one fifteen at bet three sixty five is the
best odds on the board. There's also minus one thirty
at FanDuel I like it down to minus one forty five. Rocker,
like you said, was a prospect with real pedigree, hasn't
panned out. His stuff has gotten a little bit worse
(09:01):
this year, even in this really tough hitting environment or
really tough pitching environment rather in Sacramento. The bad X
is projecting the number here three point nine strikeouts for
Kumar Rocker facing an athletics team that it depends on
what lineup you get and what time of the year
(09:23):
it's been, because at times it's been like an extremely
strikeout heavy lineup. At times, it's been very low strikeout
right now, it's more of a low strikeout approach that
they've been going with lately, especially the projected lineup today.
So definitely what we're looking at here with Rocker is
the under.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
I have a very vivid Kumar Rocker memory actually sitting
at a bar outside of the Rangers new old Stadium. Coincidentally,
since he pitches for the Rangers now in twenty nineteen,
when he was a freshman at Vanderbilt, watching on TV
him throw a nineteen strikeout no hitter against Duke in
the Super Regionals. He was a freshman at Vanderbilt and
(10:04):
just being like this guy, like I was like, oh,
it's the next Steven Strasburg or something like that. You know,
hasn't quite worked out, But yeah, that was a seven
years ago at this point for Kumar Raker, a nineteen
strikeout no hitter. Hopefully he has fewer strikeouts tonight to
take us to the window. All pitching props from here
(10:27):
on out, for usually is fun pitching matchup. I'm very
partial to Chase Burns. I'm going to tune into the
Reds anytime Chase Burns pitches he's facing Sandy al Contra,
who used to he was my Chase Burns before Chase Burns.
I would tune in anytime Sandy pitched. Coincidentally, I just
locked in a bed in the action app on the
first five over three and a half in this game.
(10:50):
That is, as of this as of us talking, the
top total slash money line edge in Sean Zrillo's Bartolo tool,
which can access with a Pro subscription, is the over
in the first five innings, which kind of surprised me
with these two starting pitchers, but generally trust Sean's model,
and the bet you have in this game is kind
(11:11):
of kind of in line with that, in that you
you don't expect one of these guys to go too
deep in the game.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Yeah, no, I love that bet. If if that were
to happen, that would be very good for us here.
Betting on Sandy Alcontra under eighteen and a half outs
minus one point fifteen at hard Rock is the best
odds on the board. It's also a point off at DraftKings,
and I like it down to like I mean, theoretically
the projection says minus two hundred or so, which I
(11:41):
don't know if I'd actually take it down that far,
but like, this is one that I keep going back to,
and it hasn't been working out much lately. I think
he's gone over this number in I think like five
of his last seven games or something like that. He
just keeps going deep into games, keeps pitching well. I'm
(12:04):
just not a believer in Sandy though. Like, I don't
think he's the same guy he used to be. His
overall numbers, his uh, you know, his strikeouts and walks
or strikeouts rather, are are down lower than they used
to be. His stuff numbers are lower than they used
to be. But he just keeps doing this Sandy out
contra thing. I don't I don't think he's for real.
(12:25):
He's not a three to five era pitcher. The way
he's been pitching, I think he's you know, every single
projected system on Fangrafts has him over four. The bad
X has him over four and a half. It's it's
just I'm not buying Sandy. They will let him go
deep if he's pitching well. But uh, today, going into
Cincinnati Great American Ballpark eighty eighty one degrees, there definitely
(12:49):
hitting Weather. I am going with the under here again
on Sandy, and I'm hoping that it's gonna gonna do
him be better than it has the last few times.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
I mean that is kind of It can feel like
you're bashing your head against a brick wall sometimes when
it's not working out in your favor for a couple starts.
But it is a credit to models like yours that
they don't overreact to streaks. You know they're still seeing.
They don't care. Your model doesn't care that he has
gone over eighteen outs in or gone eighteen outs or
(13:19):
more in seven straight starts or whatever. It's looking at
everything else and saying, just because it happened before, it
doesn't mean it's more likely to happen in the future. Yeah,
he's gone. What was it? I was just looking at
his Gamelog game Loog Hunting, which everyone loves to do. One, two, three, four, five, six,
(13:40):
seven straight starts where he's gone eighteen outs or more,
and five of those seven he's gone to at least
twenty one outs, So a lot of length for Sandy.
L Contra stayed in Miami at the trade deadline, got
a team option for one more year. There. I think
he just became the Marlins all time leader, and I
think inning pitched or something like that. Definitely a legend
(14:03):
there in Miami at this point. But yeah, his stuff
is not nearly what it was during that Cy Young
campaign back in twenty twenty two. All Right, one more
bet today, a picture of slightly less renowned than Sandiel Contra.
We're going to Nationals Mets in Queens. I actually like
(14:27):
this guy you're betting on quite a bit. I've had
I've streamed him a couple times in fantasy. Curious to
hear your analysis here because the one knock I've seen
on him is the Nats haven't really let him go
that deep into games, but we're gonna need him to
go at least five innings tonight to cast your bet.
(14:47):
So where are you on the Nats starter tonight?
Speaker 2 (14:51):
Yeah, Andrew Alvarez to record a win. Plus two eighty
six at DraftKings is the best odds on the board.
I have it good down to plus two thirty si Evan,
Like you said, the biggest knock on him is he
going to be able to go five innings. There have
been starts where he's pitching well and they just pull
him early. That's baked into the projection you know, we
(15:13):
know that that's a possibility, but the projection still likes
the chance of him to record a win here. A
lot of that has to do with one he's a
good pitcher. The bad X has his context neutral era
under four, which is really good these days. Facing Robert
Stock of the Mets, who I absolutely love as a person.
(15:34):
He's part of the baseball analytics community, very active on Twitter.
Not the best major league pitcher. I think the Nats
get to him a little bit. I think they give
Alvarez a lead and hopefully Alvarez can stay into the
fifth inning. So that's what we're hoping for here.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
Yeah, Big Bob Stock. Love that he's still hanging around
at the age of thirty six, getting these cups across
A great.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
Story like him just being in the majors now and
making starts is so awesome.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
I love seeing it me too.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
Yeah, gotta stay objective.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Yeah, bounced around a lot in the early twenty twenties,
pitched in Korea, pitched in Mexico. His only logged eighty
three career major leaguetings here at the age of thirty six.
But still, Yeah, he's become something of a legend in
the baseball analytics community as a as an active major
league pitcher who engages with kind of more advanced level
(16:35):
of thinking in the same vein as like the Sean
Doolittle a couple of years ago, right a big online
baseball presence. But Andrew Alvarez is the guy here that
we are betting on. Has gone more than five innings
each of his last two starts, so maybe the Nationals
are giving him a little more length. Looks like he's
topped out at ninety seven pitches back in early July,
(16:58):
so he's got the ability to go deep into games.
Needs to go at least five. Nats need to hang
on for the win for him if the offense can
back him, and that is what we will be looking
for tonight. Six bets from Derek Cardi quick recap a
couple pitcher wins bets here Grayson Rodriguez to record a
(17:18):
win plus two sixty three Andrewelverrez again to record a
win plus two eighty six strikeout props. Chris Saiale under
six and a half strikeouts, Kumar Rocker under four and
a half strikeouts. We have Sandy el Contra under eighteen
and a half outs recorded and one hitter prop up
there in the eighty grade section Victor Bearracoto to not
record a hit plus two oh two. That is our
(17:41):
betting card for this Friday MLB slate. That'll do it
for today's episode. Thanks so much for tuning in. We'd
like to tell some of the bets from this episode.
Look for the quick slip links in the episode description.
Don't forget to download the free, award winning Action Network app. Also,
please leave us a five star rating interview wherever you
listen to the podcast, it is very very much appreciated.
(18:03):
If you're watching on YouTube, hit that like button leave
us a comment on let us know what bets you're tailing,
what bets you're fading, what other bets you might like.
Today can help us out quite a bit as well.
We'll be back on Monday with another episode. Sean Zrillo
back in here as we get into mid August. Down
the stretch here this twenty twenty six season for Derek Cardi.
(18:27):
I'm Colin Richard. Thanks so much for listening to Payoff
Pitch Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast. Good luck
with all your bets and have a great weekend. Put
(18:52):
this crowd on his feet. What a trigger?
Speaker 2 (18:55):
No one watch
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