July 24, 2026 • 22 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch, Sean Zerillo, and Derek Carty break down the Friday MLB slate, diving into sides, totals and player props. Using the MLB 20–80 scouting scale, they grade their most confident plays and highlight where they’re finding the most value across the board. Tune in to hear their top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Rate, review and subscribe to the show wherever you watch or listen so you don't miss us every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
1 - 80-GRADE BETS
11 - 60-GRADE BETS
19 - 40-GRADE BETS
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Flying ball, no crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
In the lineup it is spring stop bringing jobs. The
bit out signed.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Castianos.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
It will be a home run wow field and he
look good. Tu you talk about a roll at.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
The dice, this is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Welcome in to Payoff Pitch Action Networks, Major League Baseball
Betting Podcast. It is Friday, July twenty fourth. I'm calling Whitchurch,
joined today by Derek Cardi, creator of the bat x
projection system. We're gonna break down this busy Friday slate,
(00:56):
almost everything taking place under the lights. Well, rocky brewers.
Get started about four o'clock Eastern, so late afternoon, full slate,
a lot of good games, a lot of big names.
Get about a little more than a week away from
the trade deadline, so things are going to start to
heat up here. We've got our eighty grade bets. Looks
(01:16):
like Derek has four of them, and then a host
of sixty grade bets and then a couple of forty
grade bets to round us out. So let's go ahead
and get started with our eighty grade section. And we
are going to go to probably the series of the
weekend to start things off, Yankees Phillies in Philadelphia. Tonight's
(01:38):
matchup probably the best pitching matchup of the series. Two Hunter,
I'm sorry Cam Schlittler against Jesus Lizardo. There's no nl
CY Young favorite Jacob Mazerowski and today's slate for Derek
to fade, so he has to turn instead to the
al Cy Young favorite.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Go ahead, Derek, So that being said, we're gonna fade
Cam Schlitzler today. Cam Schlittler under seventeen and a half
outs plus one forty at Fanatics is the best odds
on the board. There's a one to twenty four at
Caesars ending a one twenty at DraftKings. I like it
down to minus one ten, so you can definitely find
this one widely available. Schlitler is the AlSi Young favorite,
(02:22):
and that's largely why we're fading him here because he's
been really, really good.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
But he's not this good. You know.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
He has a two twenty e RA right now and
that's not going to continue. He's getting there based on
a low BABBB, a high on base or a high
left on base percentage. He's good, don't get me wrong,
but he's like a mid threes eer pitcher as opposed.
Speaker 4 (02:49):
To like like a low twos er pitcher.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Really, a lot of what he's done this year comes
down to the luck metrics and the really low walk rate,
you know, one point eight walks per nine, which is
unsustainably low, Like, nobody can walk that few batters, and
historically he's never done anything close to that. You know,
every projection system on fangrafts has him more like a
(03:13):
you know, a two seven five to a three walk
per nine kind of guy. So when he starts walking
more guys, when he starts allowing more runs, he's going
to go not as deep into games. He's obviously got
a really tough matchup here, facing a good Phillies team,
Phillies team that can draw walks.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
And so this is a spot where I'm looking to
fade Cam Schlitler.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
Cam Schlittler currently plus one thirty to ain al Cy
Young at Draft Kings, not as big of a favorite
as Miserowski. Dylan sees right behind him at plus one forty. Miserowski.
By the way, this is a good reason for folks
to download the Action app and subscribe to Action Pro.
If you do and you follow Derek in the app.
(03:56):
And I know this because I did exactly this, you
would have seen the notification come in on Monday for
Derek betting under on Jacob Mezerowski's outs recorded. Of course,
the books were not quick to adjust to the fact
that Pat Murphy said they were going to manage his
workload a lot more stringently down the stretch and you
got it. I think it was seventeen and a half,
just like Schlitzler today, and he only threw sixty five
(04:19):
pitches through four innings and they pulled him. So that
was that was found money. I was sitting right there
on the ground for you.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
They were giving us like plus one fifty plus one
sixty at most books like it was.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Yeah, one of the easier bets I've won all year.
Thanks to you, Derek again, follow him in the Action App.
He logs these bets even when he's not on this show.
You know, he's on here on Fridays, he's on prop
drops on Kern around Tuesdays. Even if you're not getting
these picks on YouTube. Action app is where you can
find them. Given out winners all year long. Hopefully we
(04:50):
can hit another one with Schlitler. Today, we'll move on
to another outs prop, this one a picture of slightly
less Harold going to athletics twins matchup of Jacob Lopez
and Zebbie Matthews. And you like another outs under here
from one of these guys.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Yep, looking at Zebbi Matthews under what's our number? Here?
Under seventeen and a half plus one forty five at
Fanatics is the best odds on the board. There's also
a one forty one at poly Market. There's a one
twenty one at DK and Caesars, and I like it
down to minus one ten or so.
Speaker 4 (05:27):
This is one.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
If you're going based on game logs, it looks like
a terrible bet.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
He has done.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
This in He's gone over this in nine of his
twelve starts. But Zebbi Matthews is just not a guy
who is usually allowed to throw a lot of pitches.
Speaker 4 (05:43):
He's not a guy.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
Who historically has been able to go this deep into games.
He doesn't really look like that great of a pitcher.
If I look at the back cast stuff model, it
thinks his stuff has gotten significantly worse this year. His
era is actually like over five, so it just it
doesn't make sense that he's gone this deep this often
(06:05):
and the projection is not buying it. The projection says
that he should he should go under this number see
about fifty eight percent of the time. So if you're
going to give us big plus money on that, I'm
just going.
Speaker 4 (06:18):
To take it.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Zebbi is a guy I was really high on last year,
even when he was sporting a five five six ERA
because of his strikeout numbers compared to his walk numbers.
You know, his k rate was all the way up
at twenty five percent, his walk rate was down under
seven percent. This year, the walk rate hasn't necessarily gone up,
but the strikeout numbers have just plummeted. I imagine you said
(06:41):
your back cast model has his stuff going down. I'm
not sure if he's pitching through an injury or if
this is just the picture is he's twenty He seems
like he's a young pictuer, but he's twenty six now,
so an experience but not necessarily young. Concerning stuff for Zebi,
Matthews one Daniel Zebulon Matthew is one of my favorite name.
So that's how that's where they get to his heavy
(07:03):
or fading him today. We'll see what the Twins get
out of him the rest of the way. One more
pitching prop here in the eighty grade section. It's not
an outs recorded prop, but it's a Walks prop. It's
a guy I had my eye on from a betting
perspective entering the season. Proved me wrong a lot early on.
(07:23):
We're going to Rocky's Brewers, Tomoyuki Sagano against Shane Drohan.
How you betting this one?
Speaker 1 (07:31):
I'm looking at Chicano under one and a half Walks
aloud plus one fifty ath three sixty five's best UDDs
on the board. There's also a one thirty five at
DraftKings of one thirty at Caesars. I like it down
to one oh five or so. This one, I think
is kind of just a misprice. I bet him the
other day and it worked out really well, and it's
(07:52):
showing value again today. He's a guy who has He's
not a good pitcher. He definitely doesn't strike anybody out,
but he is a guy with pretty good control. He's
getting out of corse Field and he is coming off
of he had an extended layoff before his last start,
only through seventy seven pitches, so you know, he'll probably
(08:15):
be around ninety today, but he won't really be stretched
enough to go any more than that, which definitely helps us.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
Yeah, Sagano definitely a throwback picture, no strikeouts, no walks.
I just was looking at when he signed with Colorado.
I was like, this dude's going to give up a
billion homers and it's kind of outpitched his peripherals for
most of the season. It's gone up in recent weeks,
but four seven, sixth thera. I think it was sitting
in the threes for a lot of the first half
(08:42):
of the season. Sagano, We'll see if he can avoid
the walks today in Milwaukee. I'll trap up the eighty
grade section with a homer bet. Love this love when
you got a when you got a long shot homer
bet in the eighty grade section. You know this has
shown really good value, so I would imagine that's the case.
(09:04):
We're going to the one West Coast game today. Kind
of weird, weird weekend schedule, only one game, one series
in the Western time zone, everything else starting at eight
fifteen Eastern or earlier. But that one West Coast series
Angels Giants in San Francisco, and you've got a homer
bet here.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Yes, I'm looking at Joe Adell to Homer at plus
ten eighty five best odds at Polymarket. There's also a
nine tenant DraftKings. I think a nine hundred at FanDuel
and I like it down to eight ninety five, So
you know, definitely playable at a regular book if you
don't have Pollymarket facing Logan Webb, who's obviously, you know,
(09:43):
established himself over many years as a really good pitcher,
but he has taken a bit of a step back
this year. Again, if I look at the bat cast
stuff model, his stuff has gotten worse this year. His
stuff expected home run rate has gone up, his stuff
expected ground ball percentage has gone down. And if we
(10:03):
look his actual ground ball percentage has gone down, his
actual home run rate has gone up this year. His
strikeout rate has gone down. So this is a guy
who is not quite the same guy he used to be.
And Joe Adell has power, and they're giving us a
good number on it. So the projections like this.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
One jumping ahead a bet just because it makes sense
to talk about it. Right here, we're jumping ahead to
the sixty grade section here real quick, because your next
bet is you're talking a little bit about Logan Web
and his stuff, maybe taking a step back, and your
first sixty grade bet is also a Logan Web bet,
So why don't you go ahead and give that out
now too as well.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Yeah, it's Logan Web under eighteen and a half outs
minus one or two at FanDuel, and I like it
down to minus one forty five for all the same
reasons I kind of just mentioned, Like Logan Web's not
the same guy he used to be. He is allowed
to have a long leash, obviously, and he's facing what
is a pretty weak offense in the Angels.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
But eighteen and a half is always a.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Number where if I can get a bet at reasonable
odds on the other side of it, a lot of
times it's gonna show value because it's one of those
key numbers in the ATS markets where if he completes
six innings and then doesn't go back out, we win it.
So it's you know, he's got to go out for
the seventh inning, which is not something that we see
pictures do a whole lot. A guy like Web will
(11:20):
do it on occasion because he does have that long leash.
But I think with him getting worse, and I think
with the very reasonable odds on it, this one projects
projects as a as a good winner.
Speaker 4 (11:32):
Let me see what's the number? Yeah, about a sixty
five percent win rate on this projected.
Speaker 3 (11:37):
Always scary to fade starting pictures against the angels offense,
but values value. We'll see if Logan Web can get
pulled after six today before we move on, don't forget
to sign up for action Pro for real time picklers
from experts like Derek Carty, Sean Zarrillo, Grant Nifer, and
our entire action network team. Plus you can access our
(11:57):
pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team.
Just go to actionork dot com slash pro and get
twenty dollars off the annual price with the promo code
pod twenty. So don't miss out on the best bets
at the best prices is actionwork dot com slash Pro.
Use promo code pod twenty to get twenty dollars off
a year of Action Pro all right sixty grades. Derek
(12:20):
already gave one out Logan Web under eighteen and a
half out. It's got a couple more here a couple
more in the outs market. To start things off, we'll
go back to that Rockies Brewers game. This is one
of the bigger lines on the slay. Brewers are coming
in around minus two sixty of course at home against
the Rockies. Actually, the Tigers Royals game is more because
(12:43):
it's Trek Scouble against Beckway, but just from a pure
team quality standpoint, not going to get a bigger mismatch
usually than Brewers Rockies. But you have a angle here
on the Brewers starting pitcher Shane Drohan.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
Yeah, As is often the case, the ugly bets are
the ones that are the ones that show value a
lot of times. And so we're looking at the under
on change Rohan here under seventeen and a half outs
plus one twenty at bet three sixty five is the
best odds on the board. There's also one of five
at DraftKings, and I like it down to minus one twenty.
Speaker 4 (13:20):
If your box score hunting.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
Drohan has hit this number in each of his last
three starts, so I imagine that's part of the reason
why we're getting the number here, in addition to obviously
facing the Rockies. But he's not a guy who throws
a lot of pitches he's uh, he's actually gone under
this in I think all uh one, two, three, four, five,
(13:43):
five of his nine starts this year, and so you know,
the projection likes it. Even though it's the Rockies, this
is still a guy who's not going to go super
deep into games. They're giving us some pretty good odds
on it. Projects to win about sixty percent of the time,
So I think the number were being offered is more
an overreaction to what he's done recently as opposed to
(14:03):
who we should expect him to be going forward.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
You have five outs recorded unders today, a lot of
fading of pitchers. One more to get to a game
we haven't talked about yet Mariners Rangers in Arlington. Bryce
Miller against Mackenzie Gore. Tell us about your final out
recorded prop Another sixty grade bet here for you.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
Yeah, another one that's kind of scary. I like Bryce
Miller in general. I know my stuff model really likes
Bryce Miller stuff this year year, But we're going with
Bryce Miller under seventeen and a half outs plus one
twenty at bet MGM is the best odds on the board.
There's also a one to sixteen at FanDuel and at DraftKings,
and I like it down to minus one fifteen. As
(14:51):
much as I like Miller's talent, he's not a guy
who goes super deep into games, even in games where
he's not being piggybacked, which he's not today, presumably he
still hasn't gone very deep. He's only gone over this
number in three of his ten starts this year. Now,
some of those were those piggyback starts where he wasn't
really going to have a chance to do it. But
this is still a guy who doesn't project to be
(15:13):
able to do it and hasn't done it.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
And so.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
You know, at a fifty nine percent projected win rate,
you're going to give it to us a plus one
twenty or plus one fifteen or whatever. I'm just going
to take it and hope that, you know, hope that
Bryce Miller is not able to get it done today.
Going away from Safeco, we're away from T Mobile is
certainly going.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
To help, definitely go from one pitcher spark to another.
But something has changed in Arlington. I feel like over
the last month now that we've been seen a little
bit more offense there. Of late, all the wonkiness with
the balls that MLB's not being forthright about. Maybe, but
that is the last of five out recorded props. As
(15:59):
I said from day Eric, but one more picture prop
here going in another direction, going back to the game
of the night, probably Yankees Phillies, and you're targeting I mean,
you faded Schlitzler. So if we're gonna go negative on
the Yankee starting pitcher, it only makes sense to go
(16:19):
in another direction with the Philly starter in this one.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Yeah, the bad X is showing a lot of value
in a lot of different ways on fading Schlitler today.
And one of my other favorite ones is here Jesus
Lozardo to record a win at plus one sixty five
at DraftKings. I like it down to plus one thirty five. Again,
I don't think Schlitler is as good as the numbers
indicate this year for all the reasons I said before.
Speaker 4 (16:44):
I think the wall grade is going to come up.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
I think the luck indicators are gonna start to normalize
a little bit. And so if you're gonna give me
some some odds on Lozardo that are this good against
a guy who I think is going to regress, I'm
gonna take them.
Speaker 3 (17:01):
And two home run props to round out the sixty
grade section. We can go through both of those two
games we haven't talked about yet, Cubs Pirates and Royals Tigers.
I really like this Royals one because you're getting better
odds than normal with Trek Scubel on the mound. But
you have a Cubs hitter against Jared Jones and then
(17:23):
a Royals hitter against Scooble. Why don't you tell us
about both of those?
Speaker 1 (17:26):
Yep, we're looking at Michael Bush to Homer at plus
seven hundred and Salvador Perez to Homer at plus seven fifty,
both at BET three six'. Five there's ALSO i think
around a six hundred At FanDuel For, bush a six
fifty At DraftKings For.
Speaker 4 (17:41):
SALVE i like The bush one down to plus six.
HUNDRED i like The salvi one down to plus six.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
Forty really just they're hanging good numbers. Here they're not
anything like special in terms of matchup That i've. Noticed
like they're facing pretty good. Pictures bush's Facing Jared, Jones
savvi's Facing Turik scoogle more than a pretty good, picture
but they're giving us the right odds on. It the
(18:07):
projections like, it and so these are the types of
bets a lot of times that that are the profitable.
Ones you, know they don't seem like great. Bets they
seem actually a little scary facing a picture Like, Schooble
but the books know that and they offer us value
on the other.
Speaker 4 (18:23):
Side so that's what we're going With.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
PEREZ i Know royals fans are really eagerly paying attention
to him, too because he's currently. Tied he just Tied
George brett for most home runs In royal's, history so
he's on the verge of becoming The royals all time
homer leader three, seventeen tied With George. Brett his next
homer will make. HIM i, mean that's a not a
(18:46):
SIGNIFICANT mlb, record but a significant record for a, franchise,
obviously especially with A hall Of famer Of brett's magnitude
holding That so If perez can get a hold of one,
tonight it will definitely make. Headlines and if he can
break that record, again it's a picture Of scooble's, quality
that would be a pretty big deal as he reaches
the twilight of his. Career all, right two forty grade
(19:11):
bets then we'll get out of. Here these are The
Derek Carti. SPECIALS i don't know what The Derek cardi special,
is fading cy young favorites or betting against obscure bench
players who you got to look up what TEAM A,
yeah they're Both cardi specials for. Sure one more here
In Yanky, phillies a backup, catcher backup catcher under love
(19:35):
it go, Ahead.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
Ali, sanchez backup catcher for the for The, yankees under
half of a hit plus run PLUS rbi at plus
one ten best odds at the. Score there's also a
one o eight At, DraftKings AND i like it down
to minus one oh.
Speaker 4 (19:50):
Eight this is like these types of.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
Ones THAT i give, about often largely driven by pinch
hit risk forty four percent chance That sanchez gets pinch
hit four once the bullpen comes in today and obviously
facing a really good pitcher in Jesus lozardo to start the.
Speaker 4 (20:05):
Game so this one looks really good to.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Me and then the final, One i'm Guessing i'm wondering
if this one is pinch hit risk or if it's
just this guy is not very. Good Blue, Jays Red
sox not a game we've talked about, yet but you
have another similar bet in that.
Speaker 4 (20:20):
One, yeah it's a little bit of.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
Both there is a twenty seven percent chance Of pinch
Getting pinch hit four once the bullpen comes, In so
it's not as high as you'll often see with these,
ones but it's not, Nothing so twenty seven percent chance
is still. There he's not especially, good facing a pretty
good pitcher In Trey, yesavage and he's projected the lead,
(20:43):
off but there's always the chance that a guy like
this winds up lower in the, order and if that,
happens then we're getting a lot of extra. Value so,
oh the actual bet Is Anthony siegeler under half of
a hit plus one sixty eight At, DraftKings AND i,
like get down at plus one fifty assuming he's leading.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
OFF i was, LIKE i was, like all, right we
got all the. Analysis here are we going to say
the name of the? Player that's how scure they. Are
Sometimes Anthony siegler for the red Hot Boston Red sox
finally had their FIFTEEN i don't know if they got, fifteen,
sixteen seventeen wins in a. Row that's finally. Over Anthony
stiegler may or may not have been a big part of.
(21:22):
That But sanchez under half a, hit RUN, Rbi siegler
under half a. Hit rounding out the forty grade bets
For Derek cardy on This. Friday that's gonna do it
for today's episode Of Payoff. Pitch thanks for tuning. In
if you'd like to tail some of these, bets look
for the quick slip links in the episode. Description don't
(21:43):
forget to download the free award Winning Action network. App,
also please leave us a five star rating and review
wherever you listen to the. Podcast very very much appreciate.
It we will be back next Week monday with another
episode Of Payoff pitch For Derek. Cardi i'm Com. Richard
thanks so much for. Listening good luck with all your.
(22:03):
Bests have a great.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Weekend putting his crowd on his. Feet what a trip
no one wants to.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
Leave
Flying ball, no crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
In the lineup it is spring stop bringing jobs. The
bit out signed.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Castianos.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
It will be a home run wow field and he
look good. Tu you talk about a roll at.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
The dice, this is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Welcome in to Payoff Pitch Action Networks, Major League Baseball
Betting Podcast. It is Friday, July twenty fourth. I'm calling Whitchurch,
joined today by Derek Cardi, creator of the bat x
projection system. We're gonna break down this busy Friday slate,
(00:56):
almost everything taking place under the lights. Well, rocky brewers.
Get started about four o'clock Eastern, so late afternoon, full slate,
a lot of good games, a lot of big names.
Get about a little more than a week away from
the trade deadline, so things are going to start to
heat up here. We've got our eighty grade bets. Looks
(01:16):
like Derek has four of them, and then a host
of sixty grade bets and then a couple of forty
grade bets to round us out. So let's go ahead
and get started with our eighty grade section. And we
are going to go to probably the series of the
weekend to start things off, Yankees Phillies in Philadelphia. Tonight's
(01:38):
matchup probably the best pitching matchup of the series. Two Hunter,
I'm sorry Cam Schlittler against Jesus Lizardo. There's no nl
CY Young favorite Jacob Mazerowski and today's slate for Derek
to fade, so he has to turn instead to the
al Cy Young favorite.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Go ahead, Derek, So that being said, we're gonna fade
Cam Schlitzler today. Cam Schlittler under seventeen and a half
outs plus one forty at Fanatics is the best odds
on the board. There's a one to twenty four at
Caesars ending a one twenty at DraftKings. I like it
down to minus one ten, so you can definitely find
this one widely available. Schlitler is the AlSi Young favorite,
(02:22):
and that's largely why we're fading him here because he's
been really, really good.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
But he's not this good. You know.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
He has a two twenty e RA right now and
that's not going to continue. He's getting there based on
a low BABBB, a high on base or a high
left on base percentage. He's good, don't get me wrong,
but he's like a mid threes eer pitcher as opposed.
Speaker 4 (02:49):
To like like a low twos er pitcher.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Really, a lot of what he's done this year comes
down to the luck metrics and the really low walk rate,
you know, one point eight walks per nine, which is
unsustainably low, Like, nobody can walk that few batters, and
historically he's never done anything close to that. You know,
every projection system on fangrafts has him more like a
(03:13):
you know, a two seven five to a three walk
per nine kind of guy. So when he starts walking
more guys, when he starts allowing more runs, he's going
to go not as deep into games. He's obviously got
a really tough matchup here, facing a good Phillies team,
Phillies team that can draw walks.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
And so this is a spot where I'm looking to
fade Cam Schlitler.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
Cam Schlittler currently plus one thirty to ain al Cy
Young at Draft Kings, not as big of a favorite
as Miserowski. Dylan sees right behind him at plus one forty. Miserowski.
By the way, this is a good reason for folks
to download the Action app and subscribe to Action Pro.
If you do and you follow Derek in the app.
(03:56):
And I know this because I did exactly this, you
would have seen the notification come in on Monday for
Derek betting under on Jacob Mezerowski's outs recorded. Of course,
the books were not quick to adjust to the fact
that Pat Murphy said they were going to manage his
workload a lot more stringently down the stretch and you
got it. I think it was seventeen and a half,
just like Schlitzler today, and he only threw sixty five
(04:19):
pitches through four innings and they pulled him. So that
was that was found money. I was sitting right there
on the ground for you.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
They were giving us like plus one fifty plus one
sixty at most books like it was.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Yeah, one of the easier bets I've won all year.
Thanks to you, Derek again, follow him in the Action App.
He logs these bets even when he's not on this show.
You know, he's on here on Fridays, he's on prop
drops on Kern around Tuesdays. Even if you're not getting
these picks on YouTube. Action app is where you can
find them. Given out winners all year long. Hopefully we
(04:50):
can hit another one with Schlitler. Today, we'll move on
to another outs prop, this one a picture of slightly
less Harold going to athletics twins matchup of Jacob Lopez
and Zebbie Matthews. And you like another outs under here
from one of these guys.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Yep, looking at Zebbi Matthews under what's our number? Here?
Under seventeen and a half plus one forty five at
Fanatics is the best odds on the board. There's also
a one forty one at poly Market. There's a one
twenty one at DK and Caesars, and I like it
down to minus one ten or so.
Speaker 4 (05:27):
This is one.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
If you're going based on game logs, it looks like
a terrible bet.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
He has done.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
This in He's gone over this in nine of his
twelve starts. But Zebbi Matthews is just not a guy
who is usually allowed to throw a lot of pitches.
Speaker 4 (05:43):
He's not a guy.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
Who historically has been able to go this deep into games.
He doesn't really look like that great of a pitcher.
If I look at the back cast stuff model, it
thinks his stuff has gotten significantly worse this year. His
era is actually like over five, so it just it
doesn't make sense that he's gone this deep this often
(06:05):
and the projection is not buying it. The projection says
that he should he should go under this number see
about fifty eight percent of the time. So if you're
going to give us big plus money on that, I'm
just going.
Speaker 4 (06:18):
To take it.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Zebbi is a guy I was really high on last year,
even when he was sporting a five five six ERA
because of his strikeout numbers compared to his walk numbers.
You know, his k rate was all the way up
at twenty five percent, his walk rate was down under
seven percent. This year, the walk rate hasn't necessarily gone up,
but the strikeout numbers have just plummeted. I imagine you said
(06:41):
your back cast model has his stuff going down. I'm
not sure if he's pitching through an injury or if
this is just the picture is he's twenty He seems
like he's a young pictuer, but he's twenty six now,
so an experience but not necessarily young. Concerning stuff for Zebi,
Matthews one Daniel Zebulon Matthew is one of my favorite name.
So that's how that's where they get to his heavy
(07:03):
or fading him today. We'll see what the Twins get
out of him the rest of the way. One more
pitching prop here in the eighty grade section. It's not
an outs recorded prop, but it's a Walks prop. It's
a guy I had my eye on from a betting
perspective entering the season. Proved me wrong a lot early on.
(07:23):
We're going to Rocky's Brewers, Tomoyuki Sagano against Shane Drohan.
How you betting this one?
Speaker 1 (07:31):
I'm looking at Chicano under one and a half Walks
aloud plus one fifty ath three sixty five's best UDDs
on the board. There's also a one thirty five at
DraftKings of one thirty at Caesars. I like it down
to one oh five or so. This one, I think
is kind of just a misprice. I bet him the
other day and it worked out really well, and it's
(07:52):
showing value again today. He's a guy who has He's
not a good pitcher. He definitely doesn't strike anybody out,
but he is a guy with pretty good control. He's
getting out of corse Field and he is coming off
of he had an extended layoff before his last start,
only through seventy seven pitches, so you know, he'll probably
(08:15):
be around ninety today, but he won't really be stretched
enough to go any more than that, which definitely helps us.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
Yeah, Sagano definitely a throwback picture, no strikeouts, no walks.
I just was looking at when he signed with Colorado.
I was like, this dude's going to give up a
billion homers and it's kind of outpitched his peripherals for
most of the season. It's gone up in recent weeks,
but four seven, sixth thera. I think it was sitting
in the threes for a lot of the first half
(08:42):
of the season. Sagano, We'll see if he can avoid
the walks today in Milwaukee. I'll trap up the eighty
grade section with a homer bet. Love this love when
you got a when you got a long shot homer
bet in the eighty grade section. You know this has
shown really good value, so I would imagine that's the case.
(09:04):
We're going to the one West Coast game today. Kind
of weird, weird weekend schedule, only one game, one series
in the Western time zone, everything else starting at eight
fifteen Eastern or earlier. But that one West Coast series
Angels Giants in San Francisco, and you've got a homer
bet here.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Yes, I'm looking at Joe Adell to Homer at plus
ten eighty five best odds at Polymarket. There's also a
nine tenant DraftKings. I think a nine hundred at FanDuel
and I like it down to eight ninety five, So
you know, definitely playable at a regular book if you
don't have Pollymarket facing Logan Webb, who's obviously, you know,
(09:43):
established himself over many years as a really good pitcher,
but he has taken a bit of a step back
this year. Again, if I look at the bat cast
stuff model, his stuff has gotten worse this year. His
stuff expected home run rate has gone up, his stuff
expected ground ball percentage has gone down. And if we
(10:03):
look his actual ground ball percentage has gone down, his
actual home run rate has gone up this year. His
strikeout rate has gone down. So this is a guy
who is not quite the same guy he used to be.
And Joe Adell has power, and they're giving us a
good number on it. So the projections like this.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
One jumping ahead a bet just because it makes sense
to talk about it. Right here, we're jumping ahead to
the sixty grade section here real quick, because your next
bet is you're talking a little bit about Logan Web
and his stuff, maybe taking a step back, and your
first sixty grade bet is also a Logan Web bet,
So why don't you go ahead and give that out
now too as well.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Yeah, it's Logan Web under eighteen and a half outs
minus one or two at FanDuel, and I like it
down to minus one forty five for all the same
reasons I kind of just mentioned, Like Logan Web's not
the same guy he used to be. He is allowed
to have a long leash, obviously, and he's facing what
is a pretty weak offense in the Angels.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
But eighteen and a half is always a.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Number where if I can get a bet at reasonable
odds on the other side of it, a lot of
times it's gonna show value because it's one of those
key numbers in the ATS markets where if he completes
six innings and then doesn't go back out, we win it.
So it's you know, he's got to go out for
the seventh inning, which is not something that we see
pictures do a whole lot. A guy like Web will
(11:20):
do it on occasion because he does have that long leash.
But I think with him getting worse, and I think
with the very reasonable odds on it, this one projects
projects as a as a good winner.
Speaker 4 (11:32):
Let me see what's the number? Yeah, about a sixty
five percent win rate on this projected.
Speaker 3 (11:37):
Always scary to fade starting pictures against the angels offense,
but values value. We'll see if Logan Web can get
pulled after six today before we move on, don't forget
to sign up for action Pro for real time picklers
from experts like Derek Carty, Sean Zarrillo, Grant Nifer, and
our entire action network team. Plus you can access our
(11:57):
pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team.
Just go to actionork dot com slash pro and get
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a year of Action Pro all right sixty grades. Derek
(12:20):
already gave one out Logan Web under eighteen and a
half out. It's got a couple more here a couple
more in the outs market. To start things off, we'll
go back to that Rockies Brewers game. This is one
of the bigger lines on the slay. Brewers are coming
in around minus two sixty of course at home against
the Rockies. Actually, the Tigers Royals game is more because
(12:43):
it's Trek Scouble against Beckway, but just from a pure
team quality standpoint, not going to get a bigger mismatch
usually than Brewers Rockies. But you have a angle here
on the Brewers starting pitcher Shane Drohan.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
Yeah, As is often the case, the ugly bets are
the ones that are the ones that show value a
lot of times. And so we're looking at the under
on change Rohan here under seventeen and a half outs
plus one twenty at bet three sixty five is the
best odds on the board. There's also one of five
at DraftKings, and I like it down to minus one twenty.
Speaker 4 (13:20):
If your box score hunting.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
Drohan has hit this number in each of his last
three starts, so I imagine that's part of the reason
why we're getting the number here, in addition to obviously
facing the Rockies. But he's not a guy who throws
a lot of pitches he's uh, he's actually gone under
this in I think all uh one, two, three, four, five,
(13:43):
five of his nine starts this year, and so you know,
the projection likes it. Even though it's the Rockies, this
is still a guy who's not going to go super
deep into games. They're giving us some pretty good odds
on it. Projects to win about sixty percent of the time,
So I think the number were being offered is more
an overreaction to what he's done recently as opposed to
(14:03):
who we should expect him to be going forward.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
You have five outs recorded unders today, a lot of
fading of pitchers. One more to get to a game
we haven't talked about yet Mariners Rangers in Arlington. Bryce
Miller against Mackenzie Gore. Tell us about your final out
recorded prop Another sixty grade bet here for you.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
Yeah, another one that's kind of scary. I like Bryce
Miller in general. I know my stuff model really likes
Bryce Miller stuff this year year, But we're going with
Bryce Miller under seventeen and a half outs plus one
twenty at bet MGM is the best odds on the board.
There's also a one to sixteen at FanDuel and at DraftKings,
and I like it down to minus one fifteen. As
(14:51):
much as I like Miller's talent, he's not a guy
who goes super deep into games, even in games where
he's not being piggybacked, which he's not today, presumably he
still hasn't gone very deep. He's only gone over this
number in three of his ten starts this year. Now,
some of those were those piggyback starts where he wasn't
really going to have a chance to do it. But
this is still a guy who doesn't project to be
(15:13):
able to do it and hasn't done it.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
And so.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
You know, at a fifty nine percent projected win rate,
you're going to give it to us a plus one
twenty or plus one fifteen or whatever. I'm just going
to take it and hope that, you know, hope that
Bryce Miller is not able to get it done today.
Going away from Safeco, we're away from T Mobile is
certainly going.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
To help, definitely go from one pitcher spark to another.
But something has changed in Arlington. I feel like over
the last month now that we've been seen a little
bit more offense there. Of late, all the wonkiness with
the balls that MLB's not being forthright about. Maybe, but
that is the last of five out recorded props. As
(15:59):
I said from day Eric, but one more picture prop
here going in another direction, going back to the game
of the night, probably Yankees Phillies, and you're targeting I mean,
you faded Schlitzler. So if we're gonna go negative on
the Yankee starting pitcher, it only makes sense to go
(16:19):
in another direction with the Philly starter in this one.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Yeah, the bad X is showing a lot of value
in a lot of different ways on fading Schlitler today.
And one of my other favorite ones is here Jesus
Lozardo to record a win at plus one sixty five
at DraftKings. I like it down to plus one thirty five. Again,
I don't think Schlitler is as good as the numbers
indicate this year for all the reasons I said before.
Speaker 4 (16:44):
I think the wall grade is going to come up.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
I think the luck indicators are gonna start to normalize
a little bit. And so if you're gonna give me
some some odds on Lozardo that are this good against
a guy who I think is going to regress, I'm
gonna take them.
Speaker 3 (17:01):
And two home run props to round out the sixty
grade section. We can go through both of those two
games we haven't talked about yet, Cubs Pirates and Royals Tigers.
I really like this Royals one because you're getting better
odds than normal with Trek Scubel on the mound. But
you have a Cubs hitter against Jared Jones and then
(17:23):
a Royals hitter against Scooble. Why don't you tell us
about both of those?
Speaker 1 (17:26):
Yep, we're looking at Michael Bush to Homer at plus
seven hundred and Salvador Perez to Homer at plus seven fifty,
both at BET three six'. Five there's ALSO i think
around a six hundred At FanDuel For, bush a six
fifty At DraftKings For.
Speaker 4 (17:41):
SALVE i like The bush one down to plus six.
HUNDRED i like The salvi one down to plus six.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
Forty really just they're hanging good numbers. Here they're not
anything like special in terms of matchup That i've. Noticed
like they're facing pretty good. Pictures bush's Facing Jared, Jones
savvi's Facing Turik scoogle more than a pretty good, picture
but they're giving us the right odds on. It the
(18:07):
projections like, it and so these are the types of
bets a lot of times that that are the profitable.
Ones you, know they don't seem like great. Bets they
seem actually a little scary facing a picture Like, Schooble
but the books know that and they offer us value
on the other.
Speaker 4 (18:23):
Side so that's what we're going With.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
PEREZ i Know royals fans are really eagerly paying attention
to him, too because he's currently. Tied he just Tied
George brett for most home runs In royal's, history so
he's on the verge of becoming The royals all time
homer leader three, seventeen tied With George. Brett his next
homer will make. HIM i, mean that's a not a
(18:46):
SIGNIFICANT mlb, record but a significant record for a, franchise,
obviously especially with A hall Of famer Of brett's magnitude
holding That so If perez can get a hold of one,
tonight it will definitely make. Headlines and if he can
break that record, again it's a picture Of scooble's, quality
that would be a pretty big deal as he reaches
the twilight of his. Career all, right two forty grade
(19:11):
bets then we'll get out of. Here these are The
Derek Carti. SPECIALS i don't know what The Derek cardi special,
is fading cy young favorites or betting against obscure bench
players who you got to look up what TEAM A,
yeah they're Both cardi specials for. Sure one more here
In Yanky, phillies a backup, catcher backup catcher under love
(19:35):
it go, Ahead.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
Ali, sanchez backup catcher for the for The, yankees under
half of a hit plus run PLUS rbi at plus
one ten best odds at the. Score there's also a
one o eight At, DraftKings AND i like it down
to minus one oh.
Speaker 4 (19:50):
Eight this is like these types of.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
Ones THAT i give, about often largely driven by pinch
hit risk forty four percent chance That sanchez gets pinch
hit four once the bullpen comes in today and obviously
facing a really good pitcher in Jesus lozardo to start the.
Speaker 4 (20:05):
Game so this one looks really good to.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Me and then the final, One i'm Guessing i'm wondering
if this one is pinch hit risk or if it's
just this guy is not very. Good Blue, Jays Red
sox not a game we've talked about, yet but you
have another similar bet in that.
Speaker 4 (20:20):
One, yeah it's a little bit of.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
Both there is a twenty seven percent chance Of pinch
Getting pinch hit four once the bullpen comes, In so
it's not as high as you'll often see with these,
ones but it's not, Nothing so twenty seven percent chance
is still. There he's not especially, good facing a pretty
good pitcher In Trey, yesavage and he's projected the lead,
(20:43):
off but there's always the chance that a guy like
this winds up lower in the, order and if that,
happens then we're getting a lot of extra. Value so,
oh the actual bet Is Anthony siegeler under half of
a hit plus one sixty eight At, DraftKings AND i,
like get down at plus one fifty assuming he's leading.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
OFF i was, LIKE i was, like all, right we
got all the. Analysis here are we going to say
the name of the? Player that's how scure they. Are
Sometimes Anthony siegler for the red Hot Boston Red sox
finally had their FIFTEEN i don't know if they got, fifteen,
sixteen seventeen wins in a. Row that's finally. Over Anthony
stiegler may or may not have been a big part of.
(21:22):
That But sanchez under half a, hit RUN, Rbi siegler
under half a. Hit rounding out the forty grade bets
For Derek cardy on This. Friday that's gonna do it
for today's episode Of Payoff. Pitch thanks for tuning. In
if you'd like to tail some of these, bets look
for the quick slip links in the episode. Description don't
(21:43):
forget to download the free award Winning Action network. App,
also please leave us a five star rating and review
wherever you listen to the. Podcast very very much appreciate.
It we will be back next Week monday with another
episode Of Payoff pitch For Derek. Cardi i'm Com. Richard
thanks so much for. Listening good luck with all your.
(22:03):
Bests have a great.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Weekend putting his crowd on his. Feet what a trip
no one wants to.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
Leave
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