July 10, 2026 • 20 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch and Derek Carty break down the Friday MLB slate, diving into sides, totals and player props. Using the MLB 20–80 scouting scale, they grade their most confident plays and highlight where they’re finding the most value across the board. Tune in to hear their top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Plus, a LOT of HR plays in Cincinnati today. Rate, review and subscribe to the show wherever you watch or listen so you don't miss us every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
1 - 80-GRADE BETS
12 - 60-GRADE BETS
15 - 40-GRADE BETS
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Flying ball, no crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
It is spring stop bringing jobs. The bit out signed.
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Castianos. It
will be a home run. And Hello to Nap. You
talk about a roll at.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
The dice, this is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch. Hello and welcome to Payoff Pitch
Action Network's Major League Baseball betting podcast. It is Friday,
July tenth. I'm Colin Wichard, joined today by the creator
of the Batx Derek Cardy, to break down this full
(00:54):
Friday slate, the last start of the last weekend of
the official first half of baseball, and of course you
got the All Star break starting on Monday, home Run Derby.
We'll have some picks there from Sean Zarrillo, maybe some
other folks. Obviously it's one of it's very silly, but
(01:14):
it's one of my favorite betting events of this season,
the Home Run Derby. Lots of good stuff come there,
so looking forward to that next week. We got to
get through this weekend first. A lot of big games
on this Friday, a lot of big matchups, and Derek
has a ton of bets, a ton of bets showing
value here, some big money odds. We have no Jacob
Misarowski to fade today, thankfully, no Andrew Abbott. I'm trying
(01:37):
to think of some of your other some of your
other common fade guys. But there are there are races
on the mound today though Otani's on the mound, Chris
Sales on the mound, Hunter Brown. We'll see if Derek
is fading any of the big names today or if
he's got any any obscure small name guys he's showing
value on. So let's jump right into it with our
(01:57):
three star bets. We are going to start with a pitcher,
not necessarily a big name pitcher. We're going to Athletics
White Sox Jacob Lopez against Sean Burke in that one,
and Derek, you are targeting a strikeout prop here.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Yes, I'm looking at Sean Burke under five and a
half strikeouts plus one twenty five at DraftKings is the
best line on the board. I like it down to
mine as one fifteen or so. The bat X is
projecting five point one strikeouts here for Burke. This comes
down to kind of two things. One is that a
strikeout rate is up this year, but the bat cast
(02:37):
stuff metrics are basically the same as they were last year,
so I'm not really buying into him as a more
strikeout heavy pitcher, and he's facing an A's lineup that
is sneakily low strikeout. They're a borderline top ten strikeout
team this year, but this lineup today projects as the
sixth lowest in terms of strikeouts. They have Jacob Wilson
(03:00):
back in the lineup now, they have Josh Caroda grower
up in the majors and leading off most days he
is extremely low strikeout. Jeff McNeil is in the projected
lineup today. So this is a spot where if you're
just going based off the season athletics numbers, you might
think that this is an above average strikeout team, but
(03:21):
the version of them that we're going to see today
is most likely to be very below strikeout and so
this is I think a really good spot here for
Burke to go under.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
This is very much the kind of bet that we
expect going against people who go as you call it,
I think box score hunting. Burke has gone over five
and a half strikeouts in eight straight starts, work out
eleven last time, probably the best start of his career
against the Guardians, so really nice zag opportunity. The one worry,
(03:57):
it's not really a worry because your bet would just
void is the White Socks have opened for him a
few times this year. But of course if that happens,
the bet would just void. But I expect with all
their pitching troubles that he'll be starting from inning one.
So yeah, straight eight straight starts, over five and a
half strikeouts for Burke. So we're going under here, really
really sharp spot. I feel like from you here all right.
(04:21):
Second bet of the day, we are going to Red
Sox Mets. Another pitcher prop. Nice little pitching matchup here,
Sonny Gray against Nolan McLain. Sonny Gray waiting to find
out a if he's gonna be named a injury replacement
for the All Star team, probably a deserving All Star
this year, and b if he's gonna be with Boston
the next three weeks. He's a big lot of trade
(04:43):
chatter around his name. With the Red Sox having a
disappointing season, of course they're red hot right now, just
swept the White Sox. Now they go to Queen's to
face the Mets, and so let us know how you
are betting Sunny Gray tonight.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
I'm betting Sonny Gray under seventeen and a half outs
plus one twenty five at bet MGM's the best odds
on the board. There's also one nineteen at Caesars. There's
a one sixteen at FanDuel, and I have this good
all the way down to like minus one forty minus
one forty five because the Badex is projecting fifteen and
a half outs here for Sunny Gray, so closer to
five innings than it is to six, about a sixty
(05:19):
five percent chance that he doesn't complete the sixth inning here.
Sonny Gray first is not a guy who throws a
lot of pitches. He will complete the sixth inning on
efficiency plenty of times, but he's usually more of like
an eighty five ninety pitch guy as opposed to a
guy that they're going to let go one hundred. And
he's facing a Mets offense that, even though the Mets
have been really bad this year, this offense is getting
(05:42):
healthier and does still project as one of the best
offenses in the league.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
They have Juan.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Soto and Francisco Lindor are healthy again. Francisco Alvez is healthy.
Jure Palanco just came off the IL. This is a
team that projects as the second or third best offense
on the slate today, and so this is a spot
where it is gonna be hard for Sunny Gray. I
think to get through six innings just based on pitching
well and efficiency, I do expect him to get hit
(06:08):
around a little bit here and to struggle to get into,
you know, to finish that sixth inning.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Yet again, I like to look at this stuff while
you talk, because I know this doesn't factor into your
Now it's at all seven straight starts, Sonny Gray has
gone at least six innings, so very very sharp. Look,
people are going to look at those box scores and say,
of course you go six innings. He's gonna go six
innings all the time. Well, this is the time for
him to not do so. So Sunny Gray under seventeen
(06:36):
and a half out. All right, We got a trio
of home run bets for you here in the eighty
grade section. We're gonna lump them all together if you
want to talk about all three here. None of these
are our top home run names, so you're showing, uh,
I'm guessing these are just number plays more than anything else.
Home run plays one in Cubs, Reds, Mariner's Rays, and
then Yankees Nationals.
Speaker 3 (06:58):
Yes, I'm looking at Matt McClain to hit a home
run plus seven hundred at Fanatics, also a plus six
ninety at DraftKings, a six eighty at FanDuel, and.
Speaker 1 (07:08):
I like it down to five thirty five.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
Then we have Cedric Mullins to hit a home run
plus seven fifty at bet Rivers. There's also a seven
to twenty at DraftKings and I like it down to
four seventy five. And then Trent Grisham to hit a
home run plus five hundred at FanDuel is the best
odds and I like it down to plus three eighty.
All three of these guys are showing positive expected value
to hit a home run today, McLain especially. We're gonna
(07:32):
talk more about some of the other guys in this
game later, but it's a good spot for home runs
today in Cincinnati. It's an elite home run park, it's hot,
facing an extreme flyball homer prone pitcher in show to Amanaga.
So yeah, definitely some home run value on the board today.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Yeah, I'm counting just as a little preview for the
rest of the show. I think you have six bets
total on Red's Cubs today, so we'll get toick up
a more in the sixty and forty grade section, but
those trio of home runs showing the most value for
Derek today, and we'll wrap up our eighty grade section
with some stolen bases. I love betting stolen bases. I
(08:10):
love finding value on some of these kind of undervalued guys,
and you've got two of them in this one. One
of them in Rockies Giants, a guy that the betting
public might not be super familiar with, but top prospect
he's done pretty well since he came up for Colorado.
And then the other one we're going back to Red
(08:31):
Sox Mets.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Yeah, so the first one we're going with is Cole
Carrig for the Rockies. Over over half of a stolen
base plus five seventy five at Fanatics is the best
line on the board. There's also a four ten at
FanDuel and I like it down to three sixty, so
you can definitely find this pretty widely available. This is
a good stolen base matchup. Carrag's a guy who can
(08:53):
steal bases. Robbie Ray's a guy that you can steal on.
Kavanaugh is a catcher that you can steal on. So
this is one that's showing good value based on the
matchup more than anything else.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
And then Sue che Cheng for.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
The Red Sox to steal a base. Plus fifteen hundred
at bet three sixty five is the best odds on
the board. There's also a thirteen hundred at DraftKings. I
like it down to plus eleven hundred plus ten to
fifty or so. This one is not so much based
on the matchup. The matchup is actually a pretty tough one.
It's going to be tough for him to get on
base in the first place against Nolan McLain, and then
(09:27):
McLain is not the easiest guy to steal on once
he's on base. But really, what we're looking at here
is a guy who is potentially a premier stolen base
threat once he gets on base. He hasn't stolen a
base yet in the majors yet, and I think that's
why we're getting the odds that we're getting. But if
you look at his minor league numbers, he was stealing
bases at a really good clip. He has I think
(09:47):
a ninety fourth percentile sprint speed. Just a guy who
is very very much a stolen base threat once he
gets on base that is not being treated like it
by the odds, and so we're going to hope that
he can se how get on base against McLean and
that he's going to steal a base based on you know,
who he is inherently as a player.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
Yeah, it's fifteen to one for a reason, but really
fun stab here, Oh for three stolen bases in his
major league career, one hundred and twenty two career minor
league stolen bases across six seasons. He was ten for
seventeen in Worcester this year before called not a great percentage,
but he tries a lot, and all we need to do,
(10:28):
you know, if he just attempts to stolen base, then
you're like all right, you know we we were right
there with him for what it's worth. Playing for Taiwan
in the WBC this year, he was four for four
stealing bases. So definitely a guy who can run fifteen
to one. Really fun one there. To close out our
eighty grade section before we move on, quick reminder that
(10:53):
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(11:15):
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on this offer and so you can become the best
and smartest better you can be. All right, let's move
on to our sixty grade section. We've got a picture
prop here and then three more bets from the aforementioned
Cubs Reds game. Let's start with that picture prop first.
(11:38):
You know I mentioned guys that you like to fade.
I guess this guy kind of. I feel like you've
you've bet against him quite a bit. This year we
are going to Guardians, Marlins and a former cy Young
winner that you're betting against today.
Speaker 3 (11:54):
Yeah, this is definitely a guy that I like to fade.
Sandy Alcontra under nineteen and half outs minus one twenty
at bet MGM is the best odds on the board.
Books are kind of spread out between there's nineteen and
a half's and there's eighteen and a half's, I'm fine
betting either one's. There's an eighteen and a half minus
one thirty two at FanDuel I think is the best
(12:15):
eighteen and a half on the board, and I'm totally
fine betting that. Sandy is a guy who, like you said,
former cy Young winner, but he is not the same
guy he used to be. When I look at my
stuff model the back cast, his stuff has gone down
considerably over the last couple of years. Like, I'm not
buying into him as anything more than like a league
average pitcher at this point. And he's facing a Cleveland
(12:37):
Guardians offense that tends to take walks, tends to tends
to take a lot of pitches draw walks, and so
I expect the pitch count to be run up a
little bit here. Sandy is a guy who they're gonna
let him throw a lot of pitches, and he is
able to complete and go into the seventh inning sometimes,
but betting on anybody to go into the seventh inning
(12:57):
against a high walk team is a tall order. And
so I have him projected for about eighteen outs on
the nose here, about a seventy percent chance that he
doesn't go back out for that seventh inning, And so
so I'm looking at the under here for.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
Sandy, yet another guy who every start he makes could
be his last in a Marlin's uniform. I mean, we're
close enough to the trade deadline that you could see
a late last second scratch or something like that.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
If I don't even just see them not push him
as hard, because yes, you don't want to get him hurt.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Right before they trade him.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Had the exact same analysis on I believe it was
Monday's show with Scooball. He was sitting with like an
eighteen and a half outs recorded line, and I said,
first of all, he hasn't gotten there since he came
back from injury, and second of all, they're not going
to push him. Also, Scott Boris isn't gonna want him
pushed with just a couple of weeks coming until the
trade deadline, and that one ended up hitting relatively easily.
(13:54):
So maybe we'll see the same thing from Sandy today.
All right, trio of ding here three more home run
bets in Cubs Reds. Some bigger names here in this one.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Yeah, first one is Ellie Ellie de la Cruz to
hit a home run plus four forty at Fanatics. There's
also a four to twenty at FanDuel and I like
it down to three seventy two. JJ Bledet at plus
four forty one at DraftKings and I like it down
to plus three seventy five, and then Pete crow Armstrong
plus three forty seven at DraftKings.
Speaker 1 (14:28):
I like it down to plus two to eighty five.
Speaker 3 (14:30):
I mentioned earlier, this is probably the premier home run
park in baseball. It's hot there today. We are getting
especially for the Reds guys. We're getting showed to Amanaga
on the mound, who I like a lot as a pitcher,
but he is an extreme flyball guy. He is very
prone to home runs, so this is a spot where
he could definitely struggle today with the long ball. And
(14:52):
we're getting good odds pretty much across the board on
this game.
Speaker 2 (14:58):
Three more home run bets, four Cubs Reds believe it
or not, there are two other Cubs Reds bets. Derek
has on his card. Let's move over to the forty
grade section. To wrap us up, We're gonna start by
going back to that Marlins Guardians game. This is a
Derek Cardi special as well, obscure, this guy's basically a
(15:22):
third string catcher, and you're showing value on him to
not do anything on offense tonight.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
Yeah, third string catcher, not particularly good Brian Navaretto under
half of a hit run RBI plus one eleven at
Caesars is the best odds on the board.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
I like it down to minus one oh four.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
This is one where he's facing a good pitcher in
Parker Messik. He's not a very good hitter himself, and
he has a sixty percent chance of getting pinched hit
four once the bullpen comes in. And so we are
looking at, you know, a guy who probably hitting ninth
in the lineup might only get two or three plate appearances. Here,
I'm projecting him for about two point seven two point
(16:04):
eight on average. And so this is from a lot
of different angles.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
One that shows value.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
Yeah, this isn't just your run of the mill, like, oh,
young guy who hasn't gotten enough run. This is a
thirty one year old third string catcher with thirty two
career plate appearances. So I guess the big question is
obviously we're projecting him to play for the Marlins today.
The big hurdle we got to get over first to
him actually being in the lineup, and then yeah, one
(16:33):
or two two pas maybe and get him out of
there for under half of a hit run RBI. Another
hit run RBI. This guy also not super well known,
but former prospect of some renown a decade ago or something.
I actually had to look up where this guy was
playing because he's been bouncing all over the league over
(16:53):
the last couple of years. But he is in Texas.
So we are going to Astro's Rangers with another hit
run RBI prop.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
Yes, we are looking at Nicky Lopez.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
Under half of a hit run RBI plus one twenty
five at bet MGM is the best odds on the board.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
There's also a one to fifteen at Caesars.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
There's a one thirteen at DraftKings, and I like it
down to one oh five.
Speaker 1 (17:17):
This is another one where not a.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
Very good hitter, you know, journeyman type guy who doesn't
do a whole lot, facing a good pitcher in Hunter
Brown and has a twenty five percent chance of getting
pinched hit four once the bullpen comes in. Sets up
especially well in terms of the bullpen, I think today
because three of the highest leverage arms for the astros
are lefties, and Nicky Lopez is a lefty, so Josh Hater,
(17:43):
Brian King, Steven Oker, all lefties in the bullpen, all
fresh arms today for Houston. So this is a spot
where if we see Hunter Brown go you know, five
or six innings and then the bullpen comes in in
a closer game, it could just be all lefties and
we could be, you know, completely done with Niki Lopez
as soon as Hunter Brown is out.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
So that's kind of what I'm hoping for here today.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
All right, and close us out today with two more
home run bets. So to recap here real quick, Derek
Hardy in the eighty grade section, he likes Matt McClain
to hit a home run. In the sixty grade section,
he likes Elie de la Cruz, JJ Blede and Pete
grow Armstrong to hitt home run. Now we're down in
the one star section. So these are the guys that
(18:29):
you show the least amount of value on to hit
a home run, but still enough value to maybe sprinkle
two more reds hitters hit us with him.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Yep, Tyler Stevenson at plus five twelve at DraftKings, and
I like it down to plus four forty five, and
then au HENNYO Suarez plus three seventy five at bet
three sixty five. There's also a three sixty at FanDuel
and I like it down to three twenty five, so
all the same reasons as I like them earlier. It's
(18:58):
a great park, it hot, it's show to and they're
giving us not as good odds as the other guys,
but definitely good enough.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
To bet these I would have liked it if we
got down to Stevenson and Suarez and you found some
new level of analysis that No, it's it's Cincinnati, it's hot,
they're facing him in Naga. Bet these guys where we're
seeing Red, and we're seeing Red in Cincinnati tonight. Although
you do have a Cubs hitter in there, PCA, well,
we can get get a Cub home run Hunter Green
(19:29):
pitching on the other side. By the way, I don't
even think we've said his name for how much we've
talked about that game today, but that sounds good. Yes,
we're seeing Red in Cincinnati tonight. I'm just trying to
give our producer an episode title, as I try to
do from time to time. But that's gonna do it
for today's episode of Payoff Pitch. Thanks so much for
tuning in. If you'd like to tail some of the
bets from today's episode, look to the quick slip links
(19:50):
in the episode description. Don't forget to download the free,
award winning Action Network app. Also, please leave us a
five star rating and review wherever you listen to the podcast.
We will be back next week again. Home Run Derby
always one of if you're a baseball sick of, one
of the more fun betting events of the season. For
(20:11):
Derek Cardi, I'm Collin Richards. Thanks so much for listening
to Payoff Pitch Action Networks major League Baseball Betting podcast.
Good luck with all your best. A great urging this
crowd on his free what a Trigger No unwatched a
Flying ball, no crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
It is spring stop bringing jobs. The bit out signed.
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Castianos. It
will be a home run. And Hello to Nap. You
talk about a roll at.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
The dice, this is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch. Hello and welcome to Payoff Pitch
Action Network's Major League Baseball betting podcast. It is Friday,
July tenth. I'm Colin Wichard, joined today by the creator
of the Batx Derek Cardy, to break down this full
(00:54):
Friday slate, the last start of the last weekend of
the official first half of baseball, and of course you
got the All Star break starting on Monday, home Run Derby.
We'll have some picks there from Sean Zarrillo, maybe some
other folks. Obviously it's one of it's very silly, but
(01:14):
it's one of my favorite betting events of this season,
the Home Run Derby. Lots of good stuff come there,
so looking forward to that next week. We got to
get through this weekend first. A lot of big games
on this Friday, a lot of big matchups, and Derek
has a ton of bets, a ton of bets showing
value here, some big money odds. We have no Jacob
Misarowski to fade today, thankfully, no Andrew Abbott. I'm trying
(01:37):
to think of some of your other some of your
other common fade guys. But there are there are races
on the mound today though Otani's on the mound, Chris
Sales on the mound, Hunter Brown. We'll see if Derek
is fading any of the big names today or if
he's got any any obscure small name guys he's showing
value on. So let's jump right into it with our
(01:57):
three star bets. We are going to start with a pitcher,
not necessarily a big name pitcher. We're going to Athletics
White Sox Jacob Lopez against Sean Burke in that one,
and Derek, you are targeting a strikeout prop here.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Yes, I'm looking at Sean Burke under five and a
half strikeouts plus one twenty five at DraftKings is the
best line on the board. I like it down to
mine as one fifteen or so. The bat X is
projecting five point one strikeouts here for Burke. This comes
down to kind of two things. One is that a
strikeout rate is up this year, but the bat cast
(02:37):
stuff metrics are basically the same as they were last year,
so I'm not really buying into him as a more
strikeout heavy pitcher, and he's facing an A's lineup that
is sneakily low strikeout. They're a borderline top ten strikeout
team this year, but this lineup today projects as the
sixth lowest in terms of strikeouts. They have Jacob Wilson
(03:00):
back in the lineup now, they have Josh Caroda grower
up in the majors and leading off most days he
is extremely low strikeout. Jeff McNeil is in the projected
lineup today. So this is a spot where if you're
just going based off the season athletics numbers, you might
think that this is an above average strikeout team, but
(03:21):
the version of them that we're going to see today
is most likely to be very below strikeout and so
this is I think a really good spot here for
Burke to go under.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
This is very much the kind of bet that we
expect going against people who go as you call it,
I think box score hunting. Burke has gone over five
and a half strikeouts in eight straight starts, work out
eleven last time, probably the best start of his career
against the Guardians, so really nice zag opportunity. The one worry,
(03:57):
it's not really a worry because your bet would just
void is the White Socks have opened for him a
few times this year. But of course if that happens,
the bet would just void. But I expect with all
their pitching troubles that he'll be starting from inning one.
So yeah, straight eight straight starts, over five and a
half strikeouts for Burke. So we're going under here, really
really sharp spot. I feel like from you here all right.
(04:21):
Second bet of the day, we are going to Red
Sox Mets. Another pitcher prop. Nice little pitching matchup here,
Sonny Gray against Nolan McLain. Sonny Gray waiting to find
out a if he's gonna be named a injury replacement
for the All Star team, probably a deserving All Star
this year, and b if he's gonna be with Boston
the next three weeks. He's a big lot of trade
(04:43):
chatter around his name. With the Red Sox having a
disappointing season, of course they're red hot right now, just
swept the White Sox. Now they go to Queen's to
face the Mets, and so let us know how you
are betting Sunny Gray tonight.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
I'm betting Sonny Gray under seventeen and a half outs
plus one twenty five at bet MGM's the best odds
on the board. There's also one nineteen at Caesars. There's
a one sixteen at FanDuel, and I have this good
all the way down to like minus one forty minus
one forty five because the Badex is projecting fifteen and
a half outs here for Sunny Gray, so closer to
five innings than it is to six, about a sixty
(05:19):
five percent chance that he doesn't complete the sixth inning here.
Sonny Gray first is not a guy who throws a
lot of pitches. He will complete the sixth inning on
efficiency plenty of times, but he's usually more of like
an eighty five ninety pitch guy as opposed to a
guy that they're going to let go one hundred. And
he's facing a Mets offense that, even though the Mets
have been really bad this year, this offense is getting
(05:42):
healthier and does still project as one of the best
offenses in the league.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
They have Juan.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Soto and Francisco Lindor are healthy again. Francisco Alvez is healthy.
Jure Palanco just came off the IL. This is a
team that projects as the second or third best offense
on the slate today, and so this is a spot
where it is gonna be hard for Sunny Gray. I
think to get through six innings just based on pitching
well and efficiency, I do expect him to get hit
(06:08):
around a little bit here and to struggle to get into,
you know, to finish that sixth inning.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Yet again, I like to look at this stuff while
you talk, because I know this doesn't factor into your
Now it's at all seven straight starts, Sonny Gray has
gone at least six innings, so very very sharp. Look,
people are going to look at those box scores and say,
of course you go six innings. He's gonna go six
innings all the time. Well, this is the time for
him to not do so. So Sunny Gray under seventeen
(06:36):
and a half out. All right, We got a trio
of home run bets for you here in the eighty
grade section. We're gonna lump them all together if you
want to talk about all three here. None of these
are our top home run names, so you're showing, uh,
I'm guessing these are just number plays more than anything else.
Home run plays one in Cubs, Reds, Mariner's Rays, and
then Yankees Nationals.
Speaker 3 (06:58):
Yes, I'm looking at Matt McClain to hit a home
run plus seven hundred at Fanatics, also a plus six
ninety at DraftKings, a six eighty at FanDuel, and.
Speaker 1 (07:08):
I like it down to five thirty five.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
Then we have Cedric Mullins to hit a home run
plus seven fifty at bet Rivers. There's also a seven
to twenty at DraftKings and I like it down to
four seventy five. And then Trent Grisham to hit a
home run plus five hundred at FanDuel is the best
odds and I like it down to plus three eighty.
All three of these guys are showing positive expected value
to hit a home run today, McLain especially. We're gonna
(07:32):
talk more about some of the other guys in this
game later, but it's a good spot for home runs
today in Cincinnati. It's an elite home run park, it's hot,
facing an extreme flyball homer prone pitcher in show to Amanaga.
So yeah, definitely some home run value on the board today.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Yeah, I'm counting just as a little preview for the
rest of the show. I think you have six bets
total on Red's Cubs today, so we'll get toick up
a more in the sixty and forty grade section, but
those trio of home runs showing the most value for
Derek today, and we'll wrap up our eighty grade section
with some stolen bases. I love betting stolen bases. I
(08:10):
love finding value on some of these kind of undervalued guys,
and you've got two of them in this one. One
of them in Rockies Giants, a guy that the betting
public might not be super familiar with, but top prospect
he's done pretty well since he came up for Colorado.
And then the other one we're going back to Red
(08:31):
Sox Mets.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Yeah, so the first one we're going with is Cole
Carrig for the Rockies. Over over half of a stolen
base plus five seventy five at Fanatics is the best
line on the board. There's also a four ten at
FanDuel and I like it down to three sixty, so
you can definitely find this pretty widely available. This is
a good stolen base matchup. Carrag's a guy who can
(08:53):
steal bases. Robbie Ray's a guy that you can steal on.
Kavanaugh is a catcher that you can steal on. So
this is one that's showing good value based on the
matchup more than anything else.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
And then Sue che Cheng for.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
The Red Sox to steal a base. Plus fifteen hundred
at bet three sixty five is the best odds on
the board. There's also a thirteen hundred at DraftKings. I
like it down to plus eleven hundred plus ten to
fifty or so. This one is not so much based
on the matchup. The matchup is actually a pretty tough one.
It's going to be tough for him to get on
base in the first place against Nolan McLain, and then
(09:27):
McLain is not the easiest guy to steal on once
he's on base. But really, what we're looking at here
is a guy who is potentially a premier stolen base
threat once he gets on base. He hasn't stolen a
base yet in the majors yet, and I think that's
why we're getting the odds that we're getting. But if
you look at his minor league numbers, he was stealing
bases at a really good clip. He has I think
(09:47):
a ninety fourth percentile sprint speed. Just a guy who
is very very much a stolen base threat once he
gets on base that is not being treated like it
by the odds, and so we're going to hope that
he can se how get on base against McLean and
that he's going to steal a base based on you know,
who he is inherently as a player.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
Yeah, it's fifteen to one for a reason, but really
fun stab here, Oh for three stolen bases in his
major league career, one hundred and twenty two career minor
league stolen bases across six seasons. He was ten for
seventeen in Worcester this year before called not a great percentage,
but he tries a lot, and all we need to do,
(10:28):
you know, if he just attempts to stolen base, then
you're like all right, you know we we were right
there with him for what it's worth. Playing for Taiwan
in the WBC this year, he was four for four
stealing bases. So definitely a guy who can run fifteen
to one. Really fun one there. To close out our
eighty grade section before we move on, quick reminder that
(10:53):
with the World Cup here we have officially launched our
summer sale for Action Pro to go along with brand
new features for the World Cup. We now have money
line over under spread and player prop projections like anytime
goal scores for Action Pro users all throughout the World Cup.
New users can get three months of Action Pro for
(11:15):
the price of two. All you have to do is
go to actionnetwork dot com slash Pro to get in
on this offer and so you can become the best
and smartest better you can be. All right, let's move
on to our sixty grade section. We've got a picture
prop here and then three more bets from the aforementioned
Cubs Reds game. Let's start with that picture prop first.
(11:38):
You know I mentioned guys that you like to fade.
I guess this guy kind of. I feel like you've
you've bet against him quite a bit. This year we
are going to Guardians, Marlins and a former cy Young
winner that you're betting against today.
Speaker 3 (11:54):
Yeah, this is definitely a guy that I like to fade.
Sandy Alcontra under nineteen and half outs minus one twenty
at bet MGM is the best odds on the board.
Books are kind of spread out between there's nineteen and
a half's and there's eighteen and a half's, I'm fine
betting either one's. There's an eighteen and a half minus
one thirty two at FanDuel I think is the best
(12:15):
eighteen and a half on the board, and I'm totally
fine betting that. Sandy is a guy who, like you said,
former cy Young winner, but he is not the same
guy he used to be. When I look at my
stuff model the back cast, his stuff has gone down
considerably over the last couple of years. Like, I'm not
buying into him as anything more than like a league
average pitcher at this point. And he's facing a Cleveland
(12:37):
Guardians offense that tends to take walks, tends to tends
to take a lot of pitches draw walks, and so
I expect the pitch count to be run up a
little bit here. Sandy is a guy who they're gonna
let him throw a lot of pitches, and he is
able to complete and go into the seventh inning sometimes,
but betting on anybody to go into the seventh inning
(12:57):
against a high walk team is a tall order. And
so I have him projected for about eighteen outs on
the nose here, about a seventy percent chance that he
doesn't go back out for that seventh inning, And so
so I'm looking at the under here for.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
Sandy, yet another guy who every start he makes could
be his last in a Marlin's uniform. I mean, we're
close enough to the trade deadline that you could see
a late last second scratch or something like that.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
If I don't even just see them not push him
as hard, because yes, you don't want to get him hurt.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Right before they trade him.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Had the exact same analysis on I believe it was
Monday's show with Scooball. He was sitting with like an
eighteen and a half outs recorded line, and I said,
first of all, he hasn't gotten there since he came
back from injury, and second of all, they're not going
to push him. Also, Scott Boris isn't gonna want him
pushed with just a couple of weeks coming until the
trade deadline, and that one ended up hitting relatively easily.
(13:54):
So maybe we'll see the same thing from Sandy today.
All right, trio of ding here three more home run
bets in Cubs Reds. Some bigger names here in this one.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Yeah, first one is Ellie Ellie de la Cruz to
hit a home run plus four forty at Fanatics. There's
also a four to twenty at FanDuel and I like
it down to three seventy two. JJ Bledet at plus
four forty one at DraftKings and I like it down
to plus three seventy five, and then Pete crow Armstrong
plus three forty seven at DraftKings.
Speaker 1 (14:28):
I like it down to plus two to eighty five.
Speaker 3 (14:30):
I mentioned earlier, this is probably the premier home run
park in baseball. It's hot there today. We are getting
especially for the Reds guys. We're getting showed to Amanaga
on the mound, who I like a lot as a pitcher,
but he is an extreme flyball guy. He is very
prone to home runs, so this is a spot where
he could definitely struggle today with the long ball. And
(14:52):
we're getting good odds pretty much across the board on
this game.
Speaker 2 (14:58):
Three more home run bets, four Cubs Reds believe it
or not, there are two other Cubs Reds bets. Derek
has on his card. Let's move over to the forty
grade section. To wrap us up, We're gonna start by
going back to that Marlins Guardians game. This is a
Derek Cardi special as well, obscure, this guy's basically a
(15:22):
third string catcher, and you're showing value on him to
not do anything on offense tonight.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
Yeah, third string catcher, not particularly good Brian Navaretto under
half of a hit run RBI plus one eleven at
Caesars is the best odds on the board.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
I like it down to minus one oh four.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
This is one where he's facing a good pitcher in
Parker Messik. He's not a very good hitter himself, and
he has a sixty percent chance of getting pinched hit
four once the bullpen comes in. And so we are
looking at, you know, a guy who probably hitting ninth
in the lineup might only get two or three plate appearances. Here,
I'm projecting him for about two point seven two point
(16:04):
eight on average. And so this is from a lot
of different angles.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
One that shows value.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
Yeah, this isn't just your run of the mill, like, oh,
young guy who hasn't gotten enough run. This is a
thirty one year old third string catcher with thirty two
career plate appearances. So I guess the big question is
obviously we're projecting him to play for the Marlins today.
The big hurdle we got to get over first to
him actually being in the lineup, and then yeah, one
(16:33):
or two two pas maybe and get him out of
there for under half of a hit run RBI. Another
hit run RBI. This guy also not super well known,
but former prospect of some renown a decade ago or something.
I actually had to look up where this guy was
playing because he's been bouncing all over the league over
(16:53):
the last couple of years. But he is in Texas.
So we are going to Astro's Rangers with another hit
run RBI prop.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
Yes, we are looking at Nicky Lopez.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
Under half of a hit run RBI plus one twenty
five at bet MGM is the best odds on the board.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
There's also a one to fifteen at Caesars.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
There's a one thirteen at DraftKings, and I like it
down to one oh five.
Speaker 1 (17:17):
This is another one where not a.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
Very good hitter, you know, journeyman type guy who doesn't
do a whole lot, facing a good pitcher in Hunter
Brown and has a twenty five percent chance of getting
pinched hit four once the bullpen comes in. Sets up
especially well in terms of the bullpen, I think today
because three of the highest leverage arms for the astros
are lefties, and Nicky Lopez is a lefty, so Josh Hater,
(17:43):
Brian King, Steven Oker, all lefties in the bullpen, all
fresh arms today for Houston. So this is a spot
where if we see Hunter Brown go you know, five
or six innings and then the bullpen comes in in
a closer game, it could just be all lefties and
we could be, you know, completely done with Niki Lopez
as soon as Hunter Brown is out.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
So that's kind of what I'm hoping for here today.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
All right, and close us out today with two more
home run bets. So to recap here real quick, Derek
Hardy in the eighty grade section, he likes Matt McClain
to hit a home run. In the sixty grade section,
he likes Elie de la Cruz, JJ Blede and Pete
grow Armstrong to hitt home run. Now we're down in
the one star section. So these are the guys that
(18:29):
you show the least amount of value on to hit
a home run, but still enough value to maybe sprinkle
two more reds hitters hit us with him.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Yep, Tyler Stevenson at plus five twelve at DraftKings, and
I like it down to plus four forty five, and
then au HENNYO Suarez plus three seventy five at bet
three sixty five. There's also a three sixty at FanDuel
and I like it down to three twenty five, so
all the same reasons as I like them earlier. It's
(18:58):
a great park, it hot, it's show to and they're
giving us not as good odds as the other guys,
but definitely good enough.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
To bet these I would have liked it if we
got down to Stevenson and Suarez and you found some
new level of analysis that No, it's it's Cincinnati, it's hot,
they're facing him in Naga. Bet these guys where we're
seeing Red, and we're seeing Red in Cincinnati tonight. Although
you do have a Cubs hitter in there, PCA, well,
we can get get a Cub home run Hunter Green
(19:29):
pitching on the other side. By the way, I don't
even think we've said his name for how much we've
talked about that game today, but that sounds good. Yes,
we're seeing Red in Cincinnati tonight. I'm just trying to
give our producer an episode title, as I try to
do from time to time. But that's gonna do it
for today's episode of Payoff Pitch. Thanks so much for
tuning in. If you'd like to tail some of the
bets from today's episode, look to the quick slip links
(19:50):
in the episode description. Don't forget to download the free,
award winning Action Network app. Also, please leave us a
five star rating and review wherever you listen to the podcast.
We will be back next week again. Home Run Derby
always one of if you're a baseball sick of, one
of the more fun betting events of the season. For
(20:11):
Derek Cardi, I'm Collin Richards. Thanks so much for listening
to Payoff Pitch Action Networks major League Baseball Betting podcast.
Good luck with all your best. A great urging this
crowd on his free what a Trigger No unwatched a
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