August 4, 2026 • 35 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch and Sean Zerillo are here to break down the Tuesday's MLB slate. The guys dive into sides and totals for today as well as revisite their futures from the pre season following the trade deadline. Tune in to hear his top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page so you don't miss our live shows every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
No crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
The line up, it is Springs operating Josh the bit outside.
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos, who
will be a home run. And hello to time up.
You talk about a roll of the dice, this is it.
(00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch. Welcome to Payoff Pitch. Action Networks
Major League Baseball Betting Podcast. It is Tuesday, August fourth.
I'm Collin Whitchurch, joined as usual by Action Network Senior
MLB analyst Sean Zarillo to break down this Tuesday MLB slate.
(00:54):
We are through the trade deadline. Talked through some of
the trades on yesterday's show. The dust has settled, some
teams improved, some teams sold. We can get into that
a little bit. We know you're here mostly for the bets,
so we will focus on that, but as we talk
about these teams, we can talk a little bit about
the moves they made as well. Along the way. Sean
(01:15):
has three eighty grade bets, three sixty grade bets, so
we'll jump right through them. And your first bet today
is a team that was more active at the trade
deadline than I think a lot of people expected. The
Guardians adding Joe Adele and Nathaniel Lowe to their offensive mix.
I think offense is the number one thing that team
(01:36):
needed to improve outfield offense. Adele should help with that,
some power in that lineup, which they've sorely lacked. And
then the surprise, the biggest surprise they did was right
at basically the buzzer, adding all star starter Foster Griffin
to their rotation. Today they are at home hosting the Mets,
(02:00):
who of course sold off basically everyone they were expected
to trade, with the exception of probably Luis Robert, so
they are I saw a list of guys getting added
to their twenty six man roster today and it's a
who's who of remember some quade like Xavian Curry, guys
(02:20):
like that. But today's game Sean Menaya against Joey Cantillo, Sean,
and he thoughts about these trades, about your projection for
Cleveland more than anything going forward as they try to
catch my White Sox in the al Central, and then
your bet on today's game.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Yeah, I make the Guardians about plus the order to
win the central, that is roughly what they are, So
I essentially aligned with the market on them after all
these trades, but for today's game specifically, I really like
Joey Cantillo and the improvements that he's made. Guardians Pitching
Lab just figured out a better pitch mix for Cantillo,
and he's modified it pretty aggressively as this season has
(02:59):
gone on. He's throwing a curveball about fifteen percent of
the time in April. Now it's up to fifty percent again,
fifteen percent all the way up to fifty percent in
his last few starts.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
So the curve ball has become his most.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Oft used pitch, even ahead of the fastball, and it's
been completely dominant thirty eight percent with rate to twenty
four expected wOBA on that curve. Recent sample, it's gotten
even better but has changed up also dominant. So I
think Cantillo has fully figured out what he is going forward,
and given this new pitch MIxS, he's thrown like a
(03:33):
number two start Over the past two months or so.
Sean and I have pitched a little bit better in
terms of the results of late still getting hit hard
the sinker. The cutter is still getting crushed three seventy
expected WLOBA four to seventeen expected wOBA on those pitches. Respectively,
and he throws them a lot. I think he expected
FIP still over five in his last few starts. Cantillo
(03:56):
gets a lot more whiffs. The Mets have the better offense, Guardians,
much better defense, better better base running team, and as
you alluded to, the Mets traded everybody away. Had to
call up a bunch of dudes today. If you look
at their roster resource page, which has not updated yet,
for all these call ups, they only had four guys
left of their bullpen, Devin Williams, Daniel Duarte, Bryce Connolly
and Codei Senger the only guys who were on the
(04:18):
roster yesterday who are in the bullpen who are not
actively traded. They had to call up six dudes today, Daniell, Leuniez,
Jeffery Yon, Nate Lavender, Chase McDermott, Zavion Curry, and Kristin
Pashe all coming up to the Mets today. But that's
five new relievers for their bullpen, none of whom are
particularly good.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
So big bullpen.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
Advantage for the Guardians here, pretty big starting pitching advantage
for me as well. Slight lineup edge for the Mets,
but I prefer the Guardians defensively, I make them about
minus one seventy in this game, I like them up
to minus one fifty five. You could also lay the
first five line as well. Just would prefer to get
those bullpen involved from the late game perspective, So guards
up to minus one to fifty five one of my
(04:58):
two favorite money lines. Today.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Buried the lead a little bit talking Guardians Mets before
talking about this game. The headlining game of today's slate,
Cubs Dodgers Trek Scuble making his Dodgers debut at Wrigley Field,
a place where surprisingly he has never pitched in his career.
And it's not like the Tigers went to Wriglely that often.
But Scooble making his first wriggly Field appearance. Javier assad
(05:25):
on the other side for the Cubs. The Cubs had
a very active deadline. We talked a little bit Dodger
Scuoble yesterday Dodgers. Also, for the record, I thought it
was really funny. You know, Dalton Rushing goes down with injury.
Will Smith is still out, so it's like, all right,
they're going to be in the catcher market, and they
brought back two catchers, both of whom are backup catchers
(05:46):
they've had in the past. They got Hunter Fiducia from
the Rays. They got Ben Rortvett, who was in tria
A for the Mets. The Cubs also made a trade
with the Mets, getting Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor. They
got Kevin Gusman of course from the Blue Jays, Braxton
Garrett from the Marlins, Ryan Zephyr John from the Angels.
(06:06):
I think with a little bit of an under the
radar pick. I'm curious. I don't know how you great
him as a reliever, but really liked that kind of
savvy pick up for a bullpen that sorely needed some help.
It was a costly I mean, the Cubs made moves.
They gave up probably the most value sending back in trades.
Jefferson Rojas went to the Mets and that Clay Holmes
Tyrone Taylor deal. He's probably a top one hundred prospect.
(06:28):
Moises by Asteros, very recent top one hundred prospect, kind
of scuffled a little bit in his first cup of coffee.
The Majors went to the Angels in that Ryan Zephyr
John deal. So active, busy deadline for the Cubs won
against the Dodgers last night. In the opener of that series,
Dodgers lost four straight. Starting to wonder if they regret
(06:50):
making these by trades. They might might have decided they
should have sold instead. No, but again, scooball asad today,
are on the Schoobale bandwagon for his Dodgers' debut or
are we fading him?
Speaker 3 (07:05):
Yeah, I was surprised to find that I am on
Schooble today. I would have figured the market would have
been overweighted his direction of the Dodgers direction. If anything,
I don't think it's realizing how dominant he could potentially
be with this Dodgers team playing behind him, not only offensively,
but also their defensive quality as well as an upgrade
over the Tigers. Zephyr John ranks as a top thirty
(07:27):
five reliever for Ray to your question, he ranks about
on the same level as Luke Weaver or Steven Okert
for the Astros to pretty good arm. He's on one
of my fantasy teams as well. I only have two
fantasy teams, so hopefully he takes over the Cub's closer
role at least until Danny Palencia comes back, but that
might be the only place that the Cubs can stay
(07:47):
competitive in this game is the bullpens because the wind
is blowing out at Wrigley today. So not only do
you have a big starting pitching edge with Scooble against
the side, who of those two is likelier to allow
more balls in play? Which of these two offenses likelier
to hit more fly balls and put the ball out
of the yard. So not only do I project an
edge for Schooble against the sod And you know, if
this game were at a neutral park and the line
(08:10):
were the vague for the home field advantage, I would
still show value on the Tigers. That has nothing to
do with the weather or wind. I just do think
that factor helps the Dodgers today because they make more contact,
they have more power. The Cubs are likelier to walk
and rack up Schooble's pitch count, and they have to
they have to get into that Dodger's bullpen where they
can kind of push the pitching in this game a
(08:31):
little bit closer together. But as I said, Dodters offensive advantage,
Dodters defensive advantage as well, But it's it's like a
pretty substantial offensive edge once you get into quality of contact,
the actually putting the ball in play. Clubs are just
gonna whiff a little bit too much against Schoogle. So
I make the Dodters minus two forty in this game.
I bet them up to minus two twenty. I also
(08:52):
make their first five line like minus three hundred, and
I saw minus two to ten or something this morning,
So you could either bet the Cubs or bet the Dodgers.
First five or full game might even be a bigger
edge for the first five innings. It just wasn't available
when I bet into it last night. Often they hold
those wriggly first five lines overnight. They used to hold
the totals completely overnight. Now they put the totals up,
(09:14):
but they hold the first five back. So Dodters to
minus two twenty full game up to you, about minus
two seventy first five would be my bets in that matchup.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
One total in your eighty grade section. This was one,
you know. I log in in the morning and I
pull up your Bartolo page, which you can access in
the Action app with a pro sub look at your
top projected edges on the day. This was the one
that I think at the time I looked, was the
highest one, and it was one I liked the most
for sure at the time. Brewers, Pirates, You're on a
(09:48):
total here in terms of deadline deadline moves for this.
I think a lot of Brewers fans were frustrated that
they sat on their hands for most of the big
names did make a couple of trades. Antonio Senztela finally
mercifully out of Colorado. I think he was the longest
tenured the second longest tenured Rockey behind Kyle Freeland, who's
still there.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
They had a complete game the other day. I think
it was the first complete game calif he did.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
I streamed him in Fantasy that day. I was feeling
really good, amazing his first yes, two hundred and fifty
first career start, his first complete game. Yes. So Senzatela
is out of Colorado. He's in Milwaukee now, Dustin May
and Jojo Romero from the Cardinals in an inter division trade.
(10:31):
Alexander Fries went to Saint Louis. That deal. That is
probably the most notable prospect that Milwaukee traded. And the Pirates,
you know, not huge headlines, but I'm glad to see
them trying to win. I'm glad to see them addressing
that bullpen, which was a real weakness. Kirby Yate, Luca
Bashar I'm not actually sure how to say his last
name from the Marlins, and then the big one, Luke
(10:53):
Weaver from your Mets, Sammy Stefura going to New York
in that deal. So it feels really similar to what
the Tigers did last year actually at the deadline, where
they didn't make a lot of big buy move that
they brought in Kyle Finnegan, they brought in arm from
Atlanta whose name is escaping me. They just decided to
patch it instead of one big transaction one like big
(11:16):
name that. It's just like, let's throw a bunch of
relievers out there, see who can give us a hot
twenty innings, because with relievers it's so scattershot.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Who knows.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
But I'm glad to see the Pirates trying at least
a little bit. They are again in Milwaukee tonight. Nice
little pitching matchup Jared Jones Logan Henderson and again you're
on a total here.
Speaker 3 (11:37):
Yeah, I like the under in this matchup. Unsurprisingly with
these two starting pictures going, but Jared Jones has found
his form. I have both of these Guys's top thirty
starting pitchers. Again, no surprise considering how well they've thrown
the ball. Have been high on Logan Henderson the entire year.
But yeah, with the bullpen editions, the Pirates move from
a bottom ten bullpen to a league average bullpen. Upgraded
(12:01):
them ever so slightly, but certainly pushes them closer to
Milwaukee's bullpen. If you're talking from a team futures perspective,
that might be the more interesting aspect to talk about.
But I'll just highlight the under quick. I make this
about six point eight. I bet the under seven and
a half to minus one twenty under seven at even
money would be fine as well. The Pirates, I now
(12:21):
make plus three seventy to make the playoffs. You can
get them as high as plus four twenty five. After
all those trades, project to finish right at eighty two wins,
probably competing with the Marlins and the Padres for the
final wildcard spot in the National League. It looks like
the Phillies and the Cubs are pretty substantial favorites to
make the playoffs right now. Phillies are listed it minus
(12:44):
four hundred. The Cubs are listed at minus twenty two. Hundred,
so Cubs almost the walk to make the playoffs. According
to the market, the Phillies are pretty strong favorite. Really
seems like the third wildcard spot is up for grabs,
and the Pirates again at plus four twenty five, seem
like they're a decent bet. And relative to as I said,
the Marlins and the Padres, they are the team. I
(13:06):
bet the Padres, I said yesterday, continue to be the
biggest fade on the board and make them minus too
eighty to miss. You can get them in minus two
twenty yesterday before losing to the d Backs, I think
they were actually minus one fifty, and then even after
adding a couple of arms at the deadline, they actually
moved out.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
If anything, So.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
Not betting into that Padres at minus two twenty take
the better number, Take the Podres, or take the Pirates
at the plus four to twenty five as opposed to
betting on either Miami or San Diego to miss. I
kind of aligned with the market on the Marlins. They
didn't really do anything to upgrade. They actually downgrade. They
traded Basher as you said, they traded uh Liam Hicks
(13:46):
to the Tampa Bay Rays. So all of that's the
say pirates under today, but from a futures perspective, pirates
to make the playoffs. I would absolutely fire out right now.
If you don't have a ticket, I believe I have
a Don Kelly ticket for Manager of the Year. I
don't know if I have a make the playoffs ticket.
If I don't, I may consider adding one, because not
(14:06):
only you know, do we like their chances to make
the playoffs, like their team for the rest of the season,
but if they get there, if Paul Skeens is not hurt,
you know, this is a dangerous team come playoff time
that you don't want to face because they have a
decent offense, they upgraded their bullpen, and if you're talking
about facing Skeens, Jones, Ashcraft, maybe Bubba Chandler if he
improves in a five game series, that is a problem
(14:28):
for any team.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
Don Kelly currently the favorite frontal manager of the year.
By the way, it's I mean at nationally, it's really
really grouped together Kelly, Butterra Murphy again, always Ali Marmel
walt Weiss, who I think is probably gonna end up
winning at just given how the Braves did last year,
(14:51):
and maddingly of course with the Phillies turnaround al.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
To that point real quick before we move on. Sorry,
Phillies plus six fifth NL East. I know they're largely
panned for the loose a rise trade and how that's
gonna move everybody around their defensive spectrum. I make them
plus five twenty five. So the Phillies a potential value
bet right now to come back and win the East. Uh,
not sure if I love it, but it is one
that popped up today.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Yeah, I liked it more a couple of weeks ago.
Braves made. Braves didn't make much headlines at the deadline,
but they seem to have rebounded.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
Rent Suitor was their lone edition, I believe.
Speaker 2 (15:27):
Yeah, I've seen some buzz about Chad Tracy for Ale
Manager the Year. Just to go on a little side tangent,
he's plus five plus five fifty right now behind Venable
plus one oh five favorite and Cash plus two fifty.
But with the way the Red Sox again, same thing
with Mattingly, with the way the Red Sox turned it
around under Chad Tracy, would not shock me there. As
(15:48):
for your padres fade, I would say, yeah, they brought in,
we can talk about them, just really briefly here, they
brought in Casey Mize, they brought in Robbie Ray. Doesn't
move the needle for me much anecdotally, like Casey might
seems like a huge second half regression candidate. Robbie Ray
obviously very helter skelter.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
I've been working on.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
This is a little side tangent, but I've been working
on a trade ledger essentially, or a transaction ledger for
all of the Major league gms to try to rate
all of their decision history. And I have a lot
of data that goes back a lot of years, essentially
encompasses in the entire regimes for all of these gms.
AJ Preller ranks thirtieth out of the thirty gms and
generating value for his organization. I believe he's by my calculations,
(16:33):
he's cost the Padres sixty eight war and twenty seven
million dollars in net expected value trading away all of
the prospects and all of the wan Soto's and all
of the deals that he's done. The trade Turner trade
to the Washington Nashvilles actually grades the worst among that
even over the wan Soto trade. But yeah, Aj Preller,
(16:55):
this I mean, it's got to end at some point,
and you can't keep letting this.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
Guy destroy the future of organization.
Speaker 3 (17:01):
They're not going to win the World Series this year,
so why are you acquiring pieces that are going to
get you nowhere?
Speaker 2 (17:07):
Well, it's interesting. I mean, I don't disagree with anything
you said there, and we should move on to here
real quick. But like I mean, Andrew Friedman says himself,
if you're making a trade in July and you plug
that trade into a value based model, you're losing. And
it's a by trade. You're losing that you like, you're
making July trades, you're you know that you're losing value
because that's just the nature of the trades.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
So I would say that is part of this model.
I've tried to incorporate a win expectancy and how much
you're adding based upon where you currently are in the standing,
So that is part of the calculus of this.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
And I actually completely agree.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
You're almost always when you're buying rentals, you're almost always
going to be on the losing side of the trade, Ledger,
so Garanto account for that absolutely. And yeah, I just
found it interesting how low he ranked compared to everybody else,
he's you know, even below Pet perrymanician for the Angels.
So very surprising given all the moves he's had, Like
how negative it turned out.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Yeah, that was a big discussion among White Sox fans
yesterday with Gets making some of these moves. It's like
other than Miguel Vargus finally breaking out. He hasn't had
much of a winning trade in his White Sox tenure.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
But Jerry Tooto absolutely owns Preller, by the way, the biggest,
the most lopsided trading relationships in the sport, Alex Anthopolis
over David Forst and then Jerry Depoto over a j Preller.
Preler owns Neander from the Rays, which I find very
funny because the Rays are the team you're not supposed
to do. Yeah, the Padres are the team that on
paper I say you should always trade with. And meanwhile
Preller owns the Rays in terms of their head to trade.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
So very funny.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
All right, that does it for your eighty grade bets today.
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(19:05):
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Action Pro. All right, couple sixty grade bets here. We
are going first to Seattle Tigers Mariners. Tigers yet to
(19:28):
officially announce the starting pitcher here. I know you have
a projection Mariners hung on to Emerson Hancock and he
starts today. I know Mariners fans were really, I'm not
gonna say they were upset to see Louis castillgo. They
were upset to see the Mariners go into cost cutting
mode at the deadline. So they did reinvest some of
(19:49):
those Castillo savings in a nice little move for Taylor
Ward at the deadline, who should help their offense. The Tigers,
of course, with the Scoobale move, didn't tear things down
as hard as I think a lot of people expected.
They did end up moving Casey Mice to San Diego.
As we mentioned, hung on to glabor. Torres hung on
to all of their relief arms, so they didn't. You know, obviously,
(20:13):
you lose Scoble, you lose Myze. That's a big deal.
But from like a day to day basis, if it's
not a day one of those guys were starting, it's
still basically the same team as it was. So curious
your thoughts here on this game with the new look Tigers,
new look Mariners, and uh with a Tiger's starting pitcher uncertainty.
Speaker 3 (20:32):
Yeah, a bunch of future thoughts on these teams as well,
because I talked about the Tigers yesterday. So let's start
with the game, assuming Troy Melton is going to start
against the Mariners. I did bat listed pitchers specifically here
because I want to make sure that is Melton going
against Hancock. I project Melton about a half round better
than Hancock. I think Troy Melton is very good. I
think he's a number two starter three point seven weight
at fit projection. Hancock I have closer to league average,
(20:55):
around a four two five fastball is getting hit and
against this Tiger's offense that has been over the past week.
I like them to jump on Hancock early. Just do
not like the Tigers bullpen, and as a result, I
kind of aligned with the full game. But I make
the Tigers. I think minus one h two for the
first five innings. You can bet them at plus one
fifteen down two plus one h five, So take the
(21:16):
Tigers for the first half here. Concerning the team futures,
I know I mentioned the Tigers yesterday and the ewing
theory stuff. Don't love them also trading Casey Maiz, But
Jackson Job is about to come back as well. So
if they bring up River Ryan, they bring up Jackson Job,
and Job is kind of fulfilling the potential that you
expect him to have fulfilled. The River Ryan lives up
to expectations that I'm sure they had when they took
(21:37):
them back as the second piece for Tyrek Skouble. I
still think the Tigers can be competitive down the stretch here.
It is largely because of their offense. If their offense
keeps hitting, I think they can get their way back
into the al CenTra race. But as I said yesterday,
showed bigger edges on the Tigers than I do today.
Certainly I make the Tigers now. I think I made
them plus six hundred for the division yesterday, and now
(21:58):
I make them plus eleven hundred. You can get them
as high as sixteen to one, no value on to
make the playoff market. So either bete Tiger's division or
pass would probably take that down to about twelve to one.
Would not be a big investment. But as we're shouting out,
the Mariners, despite only making that move for Taylor Ward,
I think did get some addition by subtraction with the
(22:19):
Castillo trade, because Kate Anderson may come up and take
some of those innings at some point, especially if Hancock
continues to faulter here down the stretch. The Mariners were
my biggest edge coming into the season from a future team.
Now they are my biggest edge after the tread deadline.
That was not the case yesterday, it is the case
today in terms of how the market reevaluated them. I
think also because the ale contenders did not really push
(22:41):
a lot of chips in the Rays adding a couple
of small pieces, Guardians adding some small pieces, the Astros
adding an outfielder, the Maritors added an outfielder, so nobody
really made a significant gain over the rest of the
field today compared to yesterday. But in terms of the mathematics,
I now make the Mariners about pulse one thirty west.
You can get the mis highest plus twenty eighty five.
(23:02):
I make the minus one thirty To make the playoffs,
you can get the plus one fifteen, and then I
make them fourteen to one. To win the World Series,
you can get the miss highs twenty five to one.
I would just go ahead and play the Ale futures instead,
because you don't want to be betting against the Dodgers
with harrk.
Speaker 1 (23:18):
Skouoble at this point.
Speaker 3 (23:20):
But Mariners across the board my number one team from
a future's value perspective. We have a lot of bets
on them from the preseason. I don't know if I'm
gonna end up adding more, but I do think this
is a good time to get on them at a
good price. I still think they will be the best
team in the American League at the end of the
year if they make the playoffs. The question of whether
they make the playoffs, though, has gone a little bit
(23:42):
more up in the air. But no, I was all
over adding Mariner's futures. At this exact time last year,
I would continue to be all over it. This year,
I show some pretty big edges. A ten percent edge
in the playoff market, an eight and a half percent
edge in the divisional market. I should be adding more.
I'll see if I do add more. Not today, because
I do like the Tigers today, so we'll try to
time it a little bit better in terms of a
(24:04):
day where I actually think they're gonna win a game.
Tiger's the first five again to plus one a five today,
but future value and thoughts on both of those teams
as well to both win their divisions as I had
them in the preseason.
Speaker 1 (24:16):
Just getting better numbers.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Now, Yeah, Jackson job got into the sixties with his
pitch count his last rehab start. Scott Harris's comments make
me think we're probably not going to see him till September.
They're going to be really really cautious with him. Maybe
give him a couple starts here at the end of
the season, have him fully ready for next season. Obviously
really exciting pitching prospect a couple of years ago. It's
(24:38):
easy to these guys kind of get fratten about these
top pitching prospect comes up, debuts, everyone's like, oh, he's
the next big thing, and then he gets Tommy and
it's like a year and a half later, it's like, oh, yeah,
this guy exists. So it'll be interesting to see what
he looks like for the Tigers, probably in twenty twenty seven,
down the stretch this year, but him and yeah, River
Ryan should be up. I mean River Ryan would have
(24:59):
been up months ago if he had played for any
other org other than the Dodgers.
Speaker 3 (25:04):
And they got they got cash Mayfield from the Padres
as well, who I like a lot of young lefties,
so that was that was a I think the quality
of their return is why they made that deal with
the Padres. I think if they had gotten a lesser
prospect or lesser offer, they wouldn't have gone for it.
But I think getting that high level of a prospect
they kind of forced their head.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
The Tigers lost Scoobal, but they got back hope, they
got back cash, and they're gonna hopefully soon get back
job jobs. Never mind a stupid joke, Let's move on
to another total. You've got a couple teams contentious trade
deadlines to the Orioles and Angels, Orioles poor Orioles fans
(25:45):
man with that, I speaking of GMS, so I don't
know how they're keeping their job. I think the guy
running the Orioles Elias I believe. I think he needs
to go the way they brought up that rebuild with
all these number one picks, and now you're selling Adlie
(26:06):
to the Red Sox nice, I mean, Anthony Ijinsen, Kison Witherspoon.
It's a nice return, but not going for underwhelming again
this year, Taylor Ward, as we mentioned, shipped out to
Seattle and the Angels, on the other hand, sold, and
I'm proud of them for selling. They actually behaved like
a major league organization at this trade deadline. We talked
(26:27):
about Ryan Zephyrjohn going out, Kirby Yates also went out,
Brent suitor Joe Adell we talked about, and then the
big deal pose Soriano going to Toronto Argent Nemala probably
the best prospect traded yesterday from Toronto to the Angels
in that Soriano deal. Today, Orioles and Angels Grayson Rodriguez
(26:48):
revenge game starting for the Angels in Baltimore. Baltimore, like Detroit,
has not officially announced their starting pitcher. But you have
a projection there and you have a play on this total.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
Yeah, I like the over here.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
I make this nine point five would take the over
eight and a half up to nine at minus one
ten at open eight and a half has not moved
off of that number. I think it will close at
nine and that we will get CoV here. Grayson was
better in his last start than he had been throughout
much of this season went on. The IL just had
trouble with injuries throughout his run. As you alluded to
with Jackson Job, these top prospects get hurt kind of
(27:25):
forget about them. I've never forgotten about Grayson Rodriguez, just
always been pining for him to get back to what
I think is his full potential. I don't know if
he's going to get there. The VLO did go up
though in his last start, so that is worth keeping
an eye on. But even if he's going to be
a little bit better than he was, and I did
upgrade him ever so slightly relative to where I projected
him going into his last start, I still think this
(27:45):
total should be nine or higher. So over eight and
a half up to nine at minus won ten Angels
bad bullpen. Oriole's not the best bullpen either, like the
much more earlier in the year. But I like the
Orioles offense. Still like the Angels offense enough even without
Jo Adell should have been for the Guardians game. Joe
Adell I think a one to fifteen WRC plus against
lefties and an eighty five against righties for his career
(28:07):
in this year, the splits are even more drastic. So
hopefully Adele in that Guardians lineup for today against Mania
and the Mets. But even without him here in the
Angels offense going up against presumability LEFTI I have KD.
Povich starting for the Orioles. I like the over up
to nine at minus one ten. I think I originally
saw that Trevor Rodgers might have been slated for this game.
(28:30):
Or did he pitch yesterday? I am I confusing with
when he went now, so there's a chance there is
a chance that Trevor Rodgers could get the ball here
today he pitched last Tuesday. If it's Rogers, I would
get off this bet. I'm assuming it's going to be
Povich based upon the indications that I got, but definitely
keep an eye on the other side of this starting
(28:52):
pitching matchup, because if it's Rogers as supposed to Povich,
I'd make it closer to nine with Povich, I make
it nine and a half.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
Over an Angels Orioles. Oh what I was gonna say,
Just a little fun little tidbit with Adley going from Baltimore,
Casey mai is going from Detroit. Number one overall draft
picks both twenty eighteen and nineteen both were traded yesterday,
so kind of just you know, successful but not living
up to their full potential. Number one overall picks. Yeah,
(29:17):
I didn't.
Speaker 1 (29:17):
I didn't mind the Adley trade, I guess as much
as most.
Speaker 3 (29:20):
And Elias actually grades out as like a top five
GM for me based upon the in and out ledger
of the moves he's made. Best movie ever made was
the Bundy Trade. Got Kyle Bradish and a couple arms back. Yeah,
that generated a lot. He hasn't aside from the Rogers
and Stower's trade, hasn't made too many bad moves. The
Cordon Burns trade, you could argue about. You know. Again,
(29:43):
that's something that I've tried to quantify with regard to
like where they were projected to go how many wins
they were projected to have in that season, and then
the marginal gains that you get from adding war. But yeah,
I actually think he's graded out as a relatively decent GM.
What you can what you can argue against, and what
you can blame them for is the unfulfilled potential with
the big league level because they've had all these guys
(30:04):
pop on top one hundred prospect lists. If you want
to talk about generating value as a result of getting
prospects into the top one hundred but then failing to
cash in on trades with them or failing to get
them up to their full potential, I think that's the
biggest mark you can make against that regime. But in
terms of actually generating on field value and making good decisions,
they are very positive. But I agree, like it's the
(30:25):
it's the Kobe Mayo, Colton Kaowser, and also.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
The major league Also also the signings for reinforcements. It's
like giving like Leody taveras a guaranteed deal at the
beginning of last off season, bringing in guys like Charlie
Morton to reinforce your pitching staff last year tradings, Yeah, trade.
Maybe he's won some trades. I think the Shane Boss
trade is probably still tbd ye, but just an overall
(30:50):
body of work. Having all of these it's very similar.
You know, it's close to home for me. But it's
very similar to Rick COM's tenure with the White Socks.
You build up this amazing farm, but you gotta do
more than that. You've got to bring in the reinforcements.
Uh and and yeah, and then when they don't live
up to potential, Gunner Henderson very strange. Y're again this
year Jackson Holiday hasn't lived up to it.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
And of the coaching, there's like something off there at
the big lea.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Hurston Keirstead, I think it was his name, that Dylan Beavers.
They just had so many top prospects who just haven't
you know, right, go back to even like Ryan Mountcastle,
you know, who just haven't panned out. And as a
quick little side we might be saying seeing the same
thing in Boston right now, Anthony can't stay healthy. They
(31:38):
finally just pulled the pulled the plug on Marcella Meyer,
traded him for a middle relievers. Camble was like great
and then collapsed Christian Campbell. They gave a huge deal
to uh so really interesting stuff. You can It's really
exciting when you're rebuilding franchise to have all these top
one hundred prospects you can dream on, but they development
(31:59):
doesn't end when reached the majors, and some teams haven't
figured that out. We've gone on a lot of side
tangents today.
Speaker 3 (32:07):
It's part of the day with the trade deadline. We're
trying to hit other on the topics as we're going here.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
Yeah, absolutely final game of the day though, final bet
for you. We've already talked about the Padres quite a bit.
They are playing the Diamondbacks again tonight, Randy Vasquez against
Eduardo Rodriguez. In this one, we talked about the Padres trades, Diamondbacks,
really quiet dead deadline right at the last second. Pulled
the trigger on getting Lars Nootbar from the Cardinals, but
(32:33):
otherwise stood completely. Pat, you were on the Diamondbacks money
line last night. That was a nice cash and you're
on a total in this one tonight.
Speaker 3 (32:42):
Yeah, d bacs Nobe moves at the deadline, but Corbyn
Burns expects to be back by September. I know they
have a couple other guys on the mend as well.
They have so many arms on the injured list. They
have like ten different arms on the injured list, Soroka,
Ryan Nelson, Zach Allen, Corbyn Burns. That's an entire rotation,
Trey Jamison just to Martinez, Ajpuck, Andrew Soff ranks. So
I think a couple of those relievers and Burns are
(33:04):
all coming back by September. They're very much in the
thick of the NL wild card race. But yeah, this
is a bad starting pitching matchup. Two guys a rate
as below average starting pitchers replacement level starting pitchers. Vosquez
strike up minus Walk has dipped into the negatives again,
now walking more than he strikes out everything in his
arsenal getting absolutely crushed. E Rod shut down Team USA
(33:28):
back in March in the WBC Final. He pitched pretty
well the first couple of months of the season, and
he's gotten progressively worse as well. Now all of his
underlying indicators are in the high fource Vosquez in the
mid fives to low sixes. Don't love this Padres offense,
but it is a very good matchup for them. Don't
love getting these bullpens involved here with a potential over
(33:50):
because I do like both bullpens, but still make this
total about nine point three, like the over eight and
a half up to nine at even money. Now, this
is a total that opened it nine and a half
and went all the way down to eight and a half.
So we are betting against the market movement here, but
I think we're buying at bottom, with the total ultimately
settling at nine or at least eight and a half.
Speaker 1 (34:11):
Very juiced up.
Speaker 3 (34:12):
So I took eight and a half minus one fifteen
O like that up to minus one twenty or nine
at minus one oh two between the Pods and the
d backs. Hopefully we get some early runs and don't
have to sweat this one. Get it to four to
four quick, all.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
Right, quick little recap because the bets have been scatters
shot throughout our trade deadline talk today. Eighty grade bets
Sean Azam, Guardians money line, Dodgers money line, and Pirates
Brewers under seven and a half. In the sixty grade section,
we like Tiger's first five money line and then overs
in both Angels Orioles and Padres Diamondbacks. It's gonna do it.
(34:49):
For today's episode of Payoff Pitch Thanks so much for
tuning in. If you'd like to tail some of the
bets from today's episode, look for the quick slip links
in the episode description. Don't forget to download the free,
award winning Action Network app, and also please leave us
a five star rating. Interview wherever you listen to the podcast.
Moving back on Friday with another episode, Derek Carty joining us.
(35:10):
Actually I'll be out. It'll be Sean and Derek coming
in hot with the bets on Friday for Shanzarello, I'm
Collin Richard. Thanks for listening to Payoff Pitch Action Networks,
major League Baseball Betting podcast, and good luck with all
your bets. Heard of his crowd on his feet? What
(35:38):
a trigger?
Speaker 3 (35:40):
No?
Speaker 2 (35:40):
What Watch the Way
No crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
The line up, it is Springs operating Josh the bit outside.
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos, who
will be a home run. And hello to time up.
You talk about a roll of the dice, this is it.
(00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch. Welcome to Payoff Pitch. Action Networks
Major League Baseball Betting Podcast. It is Tuesday, August fourth.
I'm Collin Whitchurch, joined as usual by Action Network Senior
MLB analyst Sean Zarillo to break down this Tuesday MLB slate.
(00:54):
We are through the trade deadline. Talked through some of
the trades on yesterday's show. The dust has settled, some
teams improved, some teams sold. We can get into that
a little bit. We know you're here mostly for the bets,
so we will focus on that, but as we talk
about these teams, we can talk a little bit about
the moves they made as well. Along the way. Sean
(01:15):
has three eighty grade bets, three sixty grade bets, so
we'll jump right through them. And your first bet today
is a team that was more active at the trade
deadline than I think a lot of people expected. The
Guardians adding Joe Adele and Nathaniel Lowe to their offensive mix.
I think offense is the number one thing that team
(01:36):
needed to improve outfield offense. Adele should help with that,
some power in that lineup, which they've sorely lacked. And
then the surprise, the biggest surprise they did was right
at basically the buzzer, adding all star starter Foster Griffin
to their rotation. Today they are at home hosting the Mets,
(02:00):
who of course sold off basically everyone they were expected
to trade, with the exception of probably Luis Robert, so
they are I saw a list of guys getting added
to their twenty six man roster today and it's a
who's who of remember some quade like Xavian Curry, guys
(02:20):
like that. But today's game Sean Menaya against Joey Cantillo, Sean,
and he thoughts about these trades, about your projection for
Cleveland more than anything going forward as they try to
catch my White Sox in the al Central, and then
your bet on today's game.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Yeah, I make the Guardians about plus the order to
win the central, that is roughly what they are, So
I essentially aligned with the market on them after all
these trades, but for today's game specifically, I really like
Joey Cantillo and the improvements that he's made. Guardians Pitching
Lab just figured out a better pitch mix for Cantillo,
and he's modified it pretty aggressively as this season has
(02:59):
gone on. He's throwing a curveball about fifteen percent of
the time in April. Now it's up to fifty percent again,
fifteen percent all the way up to fifty percent in
his last few starts.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
So the curve ball has become his most.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Oft used pitch, even ahead of the fastball, and it's
been completely dominant thirty eight percent with rate to twenty
four expected wOBA on that curve. Recent sample, it's gotten
even better but has changed up also dominant. So I
think Cantillo has fully figured out what he is going forward,
and given this new pitch MIxS, he's thrown like a
(03:33):
number two start Over the past two months or so.
Sean and I have pitched a little bit better in
terms of the results of late still getting hit hard
the sinker. The cutter is still getting crushed three seventy
expected WLOBA four to seventeen expected wOBA on those pitches. Respectively,
and he throws them a lot. I think he expected
FIP still over five in his last few starts. Cantillo
(03:56):
gets a lot more whiffs. The Mets have the better offense, Guardians,
much better defense, better better base running team, and as
you alluded to, the Mets traded everybody away. Had to
call up a bunch of dudes today. If you look
at their roster resource page, which has not updated yet,
for all these call ups, they only had four guys
left of their bullpen, Devin Williams, Daniel Duarte, Bryce Connolly
and Codei Senger the only guys who were on the
(04:18):
roster yesterday who are in the bullpen who are not
actively traded. They had to call up six dudes today, Daniell, Leuniez,
Jeffery Yon, Nate Lavender, Chase McDermott, Zavion Curry, and Kristin
Pashe all coming up to the Mets today. But that's
five new relievers for their bullpen, none of whom are
particularly good.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
So big bullpen.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
Advantage for the Guardians here, pretty big starting pitching advantage
for me as well. Slight lineup edge for the Mets,
but I prefer the Guardians defensively, I make them about
minus one seventy in this game, I like them up
to minus one fifty five. You could also lay the
first five line as well. Just would prefer to get
those bullpen involved from the late game perspective, So guards
up to minus one to fifty five one of my
(04:58):
two favorite money lines. Today.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Buried the lead a little bit talking Guardians Mets before
talking about this game. The headlining game of today's slate,
Cubs Dodgers Trek Scuble making his Dodgers debut at Wrigley Field,
a place where surprisingly he has never pitched in his career.
And it's not like the Tigers went to Wriglely that often.
But Scooble making his first wriggly Field appearance. Javier assad
(05:25):
on the other side for the Cubs. The Cubs had
a very active deadline. We talked a little bit Dodger
Scuoble yesterday Dodgers. Also, for the record, I thought it
was really funny. You know, Dalton Rushing goes down with injury.
Will Smith is still out, so it's like, all right,
they're going to be in the catcher market, and they
brought back two catchers, both of whom are backup catchers
(05:46):
they've had in the past. They got Hunter Fiducia from
the Rays. They got Ben Rortvett, who was in tria
A for the Mets. The Cubs also made a trade
with the Mets, getting Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor. They
got Kevin Gusman of course from the Blue Jays, Braxton
Garrett from the Marlins, Ryan Zephyr John from the Angels.
(06:06):
I think with a little bit of an under the
radar pick. I'm curious. I don't know how you great
him as a reliever, but really liked that kind of
savvy pick up for a bullpen that sorely needed some help.
It was a costly I mean, the Cubs made moves.
They gave up probably the most value sending back in trades.
Jefferson Rojas went to the Mets and that Clay Holmes
Tyrone Taylor deal. He's probably a top one hundred prospect.
(06:28):
Moises by Asteros, very recent top one hundred prospect, kind
of scuffled a little bit in his first cup of coffee.
The Majors went to the Angels in that Ryan Zephyr
John deal. So active, busy deadline for the Cubs won
against the Dodgers last night. In the opener of that series,
Dodgers lost four straight. Starting to wonder if they regret
(06:50):
making these by trades. They might might have decided they
should have sold instead. No, but again, scooball asad today,
are on the Schoobale bandwagon for his Dodgers' debut or
are we fading him?
Speaker 3 (07:05):
Yeah, I was surprised to find that I am on
Schooble today. I would have figured the market would have
been overweighted his direction of the Dodgers direction. If anything,
I don't think it's realizing how dominant he could potentially
be with this Dodgers team playing behind him, not only offensively,
but also their defensive quality as well as an upgrade
over the Tigers. Zephyr John ranks as a top thirty
(07:27):
five reliever for Ray to your question, he ranks about
on the same level as Luke Weaver or Steven Okert
for the Astros to pretty good arm. He's on one
of my fantasy teams as well. I only have two
fantasy teams, so hopefully he takes over the Cub's closer
role at least until Danny Palencia comes back, but that
might be the only place that the Cubs can stay
(07:47):
competitive in this game is the bullpens because the wind
is blowing out at Wrigley today. So not only do
you have a big starting pitching edge with Scooble against
the side, who of those two is likelier to allow
more balls in play? Which of these two offenses likelier
to hit more fly balls and put the ball out
of the yard. So not only do I project an
edge for Schooble against the sod And you know, if
this game were at a neutral park and the line
(08:10):
were the vague for the home field advantage, I would
still show value on the Tigers. That has nothing to
do with the weather or wind. I just do think
that factor helps the Dodgers today because they make more contact,
they have more power. The Cubs are likelier to walk
and rack up Schooble's pitch count, and they have to
they have to get into that Dodger's bullpen where they
can kind of push the pitching in this game a
(08:31):
little bit closer together. But as I said, Dodters offensive advantage,
Dodters defensive advantage as well, But it's it's like a
pretty substantial offensive edge once you get into quality of contact,
the actually putting the ball in play. Clubs are just
gonna whiff a little bit too much against Schoogle. So
I make the Dodters minus two forty in this game.
I bet them up to minus two twenty. I also
(08:52):
make their first five line like minus three hundred, and
I saw minus two to ten or something this morning,
So you could either bet the Cubs or bet the Dodgers.
First five or full game might even be a bigger
edge for the first five innings. It just wasn't available
when I bet into it last night. Often they hold
those wriggly first five lines overnight. They used to hold
the totals completely overnight. Now they put the totals up,
(09:14):
but they hold the first five back. So Dodters to
minus two twenty full game up to you, about minus
two seventy first five would be my bets in that matchup.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
One total in your eighty grade section. This was one,
you know. I log in in the morning and I
pull up your Bartolo page, which you can access in
the Action app with a pro sub look at your
top projected edges on the day. This was the one
that I think at the time I looked, was the
highest one, and it was one I liked the most
for sure at the time. Brewers, Pirates, You're on a
(09:48):
total here in terms of deadline deadline moves for this.
I think a lot of Brewers fans were frustrated that
they sat on their hands for most of the big
names did make a couple of trades. Antonio Senztela finally
mercifully out of Colorado. I think he was the longest
tenured the second longest tenured Rockey behind Kyle Freeland, who's
still there.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
They had a complete game the other day. I think
it was the first complete game calif he did.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
I streamed him in Fantasy that day. I was feeling
really good, amazing his first yes, two hundred and fifty
first career start, his first complete game. Yes. So Senzatela
is out of Colorado. He's in Milwaukee now, Dustin May
and Jojo Romero from the Cardinals in an inter division trade.
(10:31):
Alexander Fries went to Saint Louis. That deal. That is
probably the most notable prospect that Milwaukee traded. And the Pirates,
you know, not huge headlines, but I'm glad to see
them trying to win. I'm glad to see them addressing
that bullpen, which was a real weakness. Kirby Yate, Luca
Bashar I'm not actually sure how to say his last
name from the Marlins, and then the big one, Luke
(10:53):
Weaver from your Mets, Sammy Stefura going to New York
in that deal. So it feels really similar to what
the Tigers did last year actually at the deadline, where
they didn't make a lot of big buy move that
they brought in Kyle Finnegan, they brought in arm from
Atlanta whose name is escaping me. They just decided to
patch it instead of one big transaction one like big
(11:16):
name that. It's just like, let's throw a bunch of
relievers out there, see who can give us a hot
twenty innings, because with relievers it's so scattershot.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Who knows.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
But I'm glad to see the Pirates trying at least
a little bit. They are again in Milwaukee tonight. Nice
little pitching matchup Jared Jones Logan Henderson and again you're
on a total here.
Speaker 3 (11:37):
Yeah, I like the under in this matchup. Unsurprisingly with
these two starting pictures going, but Jared Jones has found
his form. I have both of these Guys's top thirty
starting pitchers. Again, no surprise considering how well they've thrown
the ball. Have been high on Logan Henderson the entire year.
But yeah, with the bullpen editions, the Pirates move from
a bottom ten bullpen to a league average bullpen. Upgraded
(12:01):
them ever so slightly, but certainly pushes them closer to
Milwaukee's bullpen. If you're talking from a team futures perspective,
that might be the more interesting aspect to talk about.
But I'll just highlight the under quick. I make this
about six point eight. I bet the under seven and
a half to minus one twenty under seven at even
money would be fine as well. The Pirates, I now
(12:21):
make plus three seventy to make the playoffs. You can
get them as high as plus four twenty five. After
all those trades, project to finish right at eighty two wins,
probably competing with the Marlins and the Padres for the
final wildcard spot in the National League. It looks like
the Phillies and the Cubs are pretty substantial favorites to
make the playoffs right now. Phillies are listed it minus
(12:44):
four hundred. The Cubs are listed at minus twenty two. Hundred,
so Cubs almost the walk to make the playoffs. According
to the market, the Phillies are pretty strong favorite. Really
seems like the third wildcard spot is up for grabs,
and the Pirates again at plus four twenty five, seem
like they're a decent bet. And relative to as I said,
the Marlins and the Padres, they are the team. I
(13:06):
bet the Padres, I said yesterday, continue to be the
biggest fade on the board and make them minus too
eighty to miss. You can get them in minus two
twenty yesterday before losing to the d Backs, I think
they were actually minus one fifty, and then even after
adding a couple of arms at the deadline, they actually
moved out.
Speaker 1 (13:22):
If anything, So.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
Not betting into that Padres at minus two twenty take
the better number, Take the Podres, or take the Pirates
at the plus four to twenty five as opposed to
betting on either Miami or San Diego to miss. I
kind of aligned with the market on the Marlins. They
didn't really do anything to upgrade. They actually downgrade. They
traded Basher as you said, they traded uh Liam Hicks
(13:46):
to the Tampa Bay Rays. So all of that's the
say pirates under today, but from a futures perspective, pirates
to make the playoffs. I would absolutely fire out right now.
If you don't have a ticket, I believe I have
a Don Kelly ticket for Manager of the Year. I
don't know if I have a make the playoffs ticket.
If I don't, I may consider adding one, because not
(14:06):
only you know, do we like their chances to make
the playoffs, like their team for the rest of the season,
but if they get there, if Paul Skeens is not hurt,
you know, this is a dangerous team come playoff time
that you don't want to face because they have a
decent offense, they upgraded their bullpen, and if you're talking
about facing Skeens, Jones, Ashcraft, maybe Bubba Chandler if he
improves in a five game series, that is a problem
(14:28):
for any team.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
Don Kelly currently the favorite frontal manager of the year.
By the way, it's I mean at nationally, it's really
really grouped together Kelly, Butterra Murphy again, always Ali Marmel
walt Weiss, who I think is probably gonna end up
winning at just given how the Braves did last year,
(14:51):
and maddingly of course with the Phillies turnaround al.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
To that point real quick before we move on. Sorry,
Phillies plus six fifth NL East. I know they're largely
panned for the loose a rise trade and how that's
gonna move everybody around their defensive spectrum. I make them
plus five twenty five. So the Phillies a potential value
bet right now to come back and win the East. Uh,
not sure if I love it, but it is one
that popped up today.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Yeah, I liked it more a couple of weeks ago.
Braves made. Braves didn't make much headlines at the deadline,
but they seem to have rebounded.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
Rent Suitor was their lone edition, I believe.
Speaker 2 (15:27):
Yeah, I've seen some buzz about Chad Tracy for Ale
Manager the Year. Just to go on a little side tangent,
he's plus five plus five fifty right now behind Venable
plus one oh five favorite and Cash plus two fifty.
But with the way the Red Sox again, same thing
with Mattingly, with the way the Red Sox turned it
around under Chad Tracy, would not shock me there. As
(15:48):
for your padres fade, I would say, yeah, they brought in,
we can talk about them, just really briefly here, they
brought in Casey Mize, they brought in Robbie Ray. Doesn't
move the needle for me much anecdotally, like Casey might
seems like a huge second half regression candidate. Robbie Ray
obviously very helter skelter.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
I've been working on.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
This is a little side tangent, but I've been working
on a trade ledger essentially, or a transaction ledger for
all of the Major league gms to try to rate
all of their decision history. And I have a lot
of data that goes back a lot of years, essentially
encompasses in the entire regimes for all of these gms.
AJ Preller ranks thirtieth out of the thirty gms and
generating value for his organization. I believe he's by my calculations,
(16:33):
he's cost the Padres sixty eight war and twenty seven
million dollars in net expected value trading away all of
the prospects and all of the wan Soto's and all
of the deals that he's done. The trade Turner trade
to the Washington Nashvilles actually grades the worst among that
even over the wan Soto trade. But yeah, Aj Preller,
(16:55):
this I mean, it's got to end at some point,
and you can't keep letting this.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
Guy destroy the future of organization.
Speaker 3 (17:01):
They're not going to win the World Series this year,
so why are you acquiring pieces that are going to
get you nowhere?
Speaker 2 (17:07):
Well, it's interesting. I mean, I don't disagree with anything
you said there, and we should move on to here
real quick. But like I mean, Andrew Friedman says himself,
if you're making a trade in July and you plug
that trade into a value based model, you're losing. And
it's a by trade. You're losing that you like, you're
making July trades, you're you know that you're losing value
because that's just the nature of the trades.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
So I would say that is part of this model.
I've tried to incorporate a win expectancy and how much
you're adding based upon where you currently are in the standing,
So that is part of the calculus of this.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
And I actually completely agree.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
You're almost always when you're buying rentals, you're almost always
going to be on the losing side of the trade, Ledger,
so Garanto account for that absolutely. And yeah, I just
found it interesting how low he ranked compared to everybody else,
he's you know, even below Pet perrymanician for the Angels.
So very surprising given all the moves he's had, Like
how negative it turned out.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Yeah, that was a big discussion among White Sox fans
yesterday with Gets making some of these moves. It's like
other than Miguel Vargus finally breaking out. He hasn't had
much of a winning trade in his White Sox tenure.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
But Jerry Tooto absolutely owns Preller, by the way, the biggest,
the most lopsided trading relationships in the sport, Alex Anthopolis
over David Forst and then Jerry Depoto over a j Preller.
Preler owns Neander from the Rays, which I find very
funny because the Rays are the team you're not supposed
to do. Yeah, the Padres are the team that on
paper I say you should always trade with. And meanwhile
Preller owns the Rays in terms of their head to trade.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
So very funny.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
All right, that does it for your eighty grade bets today.
Before we move on, don't forget to sign up for
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(19:05):
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Action Pro. All right, couple sixty grade bets here. We
are going first to Seattle Tigers Mariners. Tigers yet to
(19:28):
officially announce the starting pitcher here. I know you have
a projection Mariners hung on to Emerson Hancock and he
starts today. I know Mariners fans were really, I'm not
gonna say they were upset to see Louis castillgo. They
were upset to see the Mariners go into cost cutting
mode at the deadline. So they did reinvest some of
(19:49):
those Castillo savings in a nice little move for Taylor
Ward at the deadline, who should help their offense. The Tigers,
of course, with the Scoobale move, didn't tear things down
as hard as I think a lot of people expected.
They did end up moving Casey Mice to San Diego.
As we mentioned, hung on to glabor. Torres hung on
to all of their relief arms, so they didn't. You know, obviously,
(20:13):
you lose Scoble, you lose Myze. That's a big deal.
But from like a day to day basis, if it's
not a day one of those guys were starting, it's
still basically the same team as it was. So curious
your thoughts here on this game with the new look Tigers,
new look Mariners, and uh with a Tiger's starting pitcher uncertainty.
Speaker 3 (20:32):
Yeah, a bunch of future thoughts on these teams as well,
because I talked about the Tigers yesterday. So let's start
with the game, assuming Troy Melton is going to start
against the Mariners. I did bat listed pitchers specifically here
because I want to make sure that is Melton going
against Hancock. I project Melton about a half round better
than Hancock. I think Troy Melton is very good. I
think he's a number two starter three point seven weight
at fit projection. Hancock I have closer to league average,
(20:55):
around a four two five fastball is getting hit and
against this Tiger's offense that has been over the past week.
I like them to jump on Hancock early. Just do
not like the Tigers bullpen, and as a result, I
kind of aligned with the full game. But I make
the Tigers. I think minus one h two for the
first five innings. You can bet them at plus one
fifteen down two plus one h five, So take the
(21:16):
Tigers for the first half here. Concerning the team futures,
I know I mentioned the Tigers yesterday and the ewing
theory stuff. Don't love them also trading Casey Maiz, But
Jackson Job is about to come back as well. So
if they bring up River Ryan, they bring up Jackson Job,
and Job is kind of fulfilling the potential that you
expect him to have fulfilled. The River Ryan lives up
to expectations that I'm sure they had when they took
(21:37):
them back as the second piece for Tyrek Skouble. I
still think the Tigers can be competitive down the stretch here.
It is largely because of their offense. If their offense
keeps hitting, I think they can get their way back
into the al CenTra race. But as I said yesterday,
showed bigger edges on the Tigers than I do today.
Certainly I make the Tigers now. I think I made
them plus six hundred for the division yesterday, and now
(21:58):
I make them plus eleven hundred. You can get them
as high as sixteen to one, no value on to
make the playoff market. So either bete Tiger's division or
pass would probably take that down to about twelve to one.
Would not be a big investment. But as we're shouting out,
the Mariners, despite only making that move for Taylor Ward,
I think did get some addition by subtraction with the
(22:19):
Castillo trade, because Kate Anderson may come up and take
some of those innings at some point, especially if Hancock
continues to faulter here down the stretch. The Mariners were
my biggest edge coming into the season from a future team.
Now they are my biggest edge after the tread deadline.
That was not the case yesterday, it is the case
today in terms of how the market reevaluated them. I
think also because the ale contenders did not really push
(22:41):
a lot of chips in the Rays adding a couple
of small pieces, Guardians adding some small pieces, the Astros
adding an outfielder, the Maritors added an outfielder, so nobody
really made a significant gain over the rest of the
field today compared to yesterday. But in terms of the mathematics,
I now make the Mariners about pulse one thirty west.
You can get the mis highest plus twenty eighty five.
(23:02):
I make the minus one thirty To make the playoffs,
you can get the plus one fifteen, and then I
make them fourteen to one. To win the World Series,
you can get the miss highs twenty five to one.
I would just go ahead and play the Ale futures instead,
because you don't want to be betting against the Dodgers
with harrk.
Speaker 1 (23:18):
Skouoble at this point.
Speaker 3 (23:20):
But Mariners across the board my number one team from
a future's value perspective. We have a lot of bets
on them from the preseason. I don't know if I'm
gonna end up adding more, but I do think this
is a good time to get on them at a
good price. I still think they will be the best
team in the American League at the end of the
year if they make the playoffs. The question of whether
they make the playoffs, though, has gone a little bit
(23:42):
more up in the air. But no, I was all
over adding Mariner's futures. At this exact time last year,
I would continue to be all over it. This year,
I show some pretty big edges. A ten percent edge
in the playoff market, an eight and a half percent
edge in the divisional market. I should be adding more.
I'll see if I do add more. Not today, because
I do like the Tigers today, so we'll try to
time it a little bit better in terms of a
(24:04):
day where I actually think they're gonna win a game.
Tiger's the first five again to plus one a five today,
but future value and thoughts on both of those teams
as well to both win their divisions as I had
them in the preseason.
Speaker 1 (24:16):
Just getting better numbers.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Now, Yeah, Jackson job got into the sixties with his
pitch count his last rehab start. Scott Harris's comments make
me think we're probably not going to see him till September.
They're going to be really really cautious with him. Maybe
give him a couple starts here at the end of
the season, have him fully ready for next season. Obviously
really exciting pitching prospect a couple of years ago. It's
(24:38):
easy to these guys kind of get fratten about these
top pitching prospect comes up, debuts, everyone's like, oh, he's
the next big thing, and then he gets Tommy and
it's like a year and a half later, it's like, oh, yeah,
this guy exists. So it'll be interesting to see what
he looks like for the Tigers, probably in twenty twenty seven,
down the stretch this year, but him and yeah, River
Ryan should be up. I mean River Ryan would have
(24:59):
been up months ago if he had played for any
other org other than the Dodgers.
Speaker 3 (25:04):
And they got they got cash Mayfield from the Padres
as well, who I like a lot of young lefties,
so that was that was a I think the quality
of their return is why they made that deal with
the Padres. I think if they had gotten a lesser
prospect or lesser offer, they wouldn't have gone for it.
But I think getting that high level of a prospect
they kind of forced their head.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
The Tigers lost Scoobal, but they got back hope, they
got back cash, and they're gonna hopefully soon get back
job jobs. Never mind a stupid joke, Let's move on
to another total. You've got a couple teams contentious trade
deadlines to the Orioles and Angels, Orioles poor Orioles fans
(25:45):
man with that, I speaking of GMS, so I don't
know how they're keeping their job. I think the guy
running the Orioles Elias I believe. I think he needs
to go the way they brought up that rebuild with
all these number one picks, and now you're selling Adlie
(26:06):
to the Red Sox nice, I mean, Anthony Ijinsen, Kison Witherspoon.
It's a nice return, but not going for underwhelming again
this year, Taylor Ward, as we mentioned, shipped out to
Seattle and the Angels, on the other hand, sold, and
I'm proud of them for selling. They actually behaved like
a major league organization at this trade deadline. We talked
(26:27):
about Ryan Zephyrjohn going out, Kirby Yates also went out,
Brent suitor Joe Adell we talked about, and then the
big deal pose Soriano going to Toronto Argent Nemala probably
the best prospect traded yesterday from Toronto to the Angels
in that Soriano deal. Today, Orioles and Angels Grayson Rodriguez
(26:48):
revenge game starting for the Angels in Baltimore. Baltimore, like Detroit,
has not officially announced their starting pitcher. But you have
a projection there and you have a play on this total.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
Yeah, I like the over here.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
I make this nine point five would take the over
eight and a half up to nine at minus one
ten at open eight and a half has not moved
off of that number. I think it will close at
nine and that we will get CoV here. Grayson was
better in his last start than he had been throughout
much of this season went on. The IL just had
trouble with injuries throughout his run. As you alluded to
with Jackson Job, these top prospects get hurt kind of
(27:25):
forget about them. I've never forgotten about Grayson Rodriguez, just
always been pining for him to get back to what
I think is his full potential. I don't know if
he's going to get there. The VLO did go up
though in his last start, so that is worth keeping
an eye on. But even if he's going to be
a little bit better than he was, and I did
upgrade him ever so slightly relative to where I projected
him going into his last start, I still think this
(27:45):
total should be nine or higher. So over eight and
a half up to nine at minus won ten Angels
bad bullpen. Oriole's not the best bullpen either, like the
much more earlier in the year. But I like the
Orioles offense. Still like the Angels offense enough even without
Jo Adell should have been for the Guardians game. Joe
Adell I think a one to fifteen WRC plus against
lefties and an eighty five against righties for his career
(28:07):
in this year, the splits are even more drastic. So
hopefully Adele in that Guardians lineup for today against Mania
and the Mets. But even without him here in the
Angels offense going up against presumability LEFTI I have KD.
Povich starting for the Orioles. I like the over up
to nine at minus one ten. I think I originally
saw that Trevor Rodgers might have been slated for this game.
(28:30):
Or did he pitch yesterday? I am I confusing with
when he went now, so there's a chance there is
a chance that Trevor Rodgers could get the ball here
today he pitched last Tuesday. If it's Rogers, I would
get off this bet. I'm assuming it's going to be
Povich based upon the indications that I got, but definitely
keep an eye on the other side of this starting
(28:52):
pitching matchup, because if it's Rogers as supposed to Povich,
I'd make it closer to nine with Povich, I make
it nine and a half.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
Over an Angels Orioles. Oh what I was gonna say,
Just a little fun little tidbit with Adley going from Baltimore,
Casey mai is going from Detroit. Number one overall draft
picks both twenty eighteen and nineteen both were traded yesterday,
so kind of just you know, successful but not living
up to their full potential. Number one overall picks. Yeah,
(29:17):
I didn't.
Speaker 1 (29:17):
I didn't mind the Adley trade, I guess as much
as most.
Speaker 3 (29:20):
And Elias actually grades out as like a top five
GM for me based upon the in and out ledger
of the moves he's made. Best movie ever made was
the Bundy Trade. Got Kyle Bradish and a couple arms back. Yeah,
that generated a lot. He hasn't aside from the Rogers
and Stower's trade, hasn't made too many bad moves. The
Cordon Burns trade, you could argue about. You know. Again,
(29:43):
that's something that I've tried to quantify with regard to
like where they were projected to go how many wins
they were projected to have in that season, and then
the marginal gains that you get from adding war. But yeah,
I actually think he's graded out as a relatively decent GM.
What you can what you can argue against, and what
you can blame them for is the unfulfilled potential with
the big league level because they've had all these guys
(30:04):
pop on top one hundred prospect lists. If you want
to talk about generating value as a result of getting
prospects into the top one hundred but then failing to
cash in on trades with them or failing to get
them up to their full potential, I think that's the
biggest mark you can make against that regime. But in
terms of actually generating on field value and making good decisions,
they are very positive. But I agree, like it's the
(30:25):
it's the Kobe Mayo, Colton Kaowser, and also.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
The major league Also also the signings for reinforcements. It's
like giving like Leody taveras a guaranteed deal at the
beginning of last off season, bringing in guys like Charlie
Morton to reinforce your pitching staff last year tradings, Yeah, trade.
Maybe he's won some trades. I think the Shane Boss
trade is probably still tbd ye, but just an overall
(30:50):
body of work. Having all of these it's very similar.
You know, it's close to home for me. But it's
very similar to Rick COM's tenure with the White Socks.
You build up this amazing farm, but you gotta do
more than that. You've got to bring in the reinforcements.
Uh and and yeah, and then when they don't live
up to potential, Gunner Henderson very strange. Y're again this
year Jackson Holiday hasn't lived up to it.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
And of the coaching, there's like something off there at
the big lea.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Hurston Keirstead, I think it was his name, that Dylan Beavers.
They just had so many top prospects who just haven't
you know, right, go back to even like Ryan Mountcastle,
you know, who just haven't panned out. And as a
quick little side we might be saying seeing the same
thing in Boston right now, Anthony can't stay healthy. They
(31:38):
finally just pulled the pulled the plug on Marcella Meyer,
traded him for a middle relievers. Camble was like great
and then collapsed Christian Campbell. They gave a huge deal
to uh so really interesting stuff. You can It's really
exciting when you're rebuilding franchise to have all these top
one hundred prospects you can dream on, but they development
(31:59):
doesn't end when reached the majors, and some teams haven't
figured that out. We've gone on a lot of side
tangents today.
Speaker 3 (32:07):
It's part of the day with the trade deadline. We're
trying to hit other on the topics as we're going here.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
Yeah, absolutely final game of the day though, final bet
for you. We've already talked about the Padres quite a bit.
They are playing the Diamondbacks again tonight, Randy Vasquez against
Eduardo Rodriguez. In this one, we talked about the Padres trades, Diamondbacks,
really quiet dead deadline right at the last second. Pulled
the trigger on getting Lars Nootbar from the Cardinals, but
(32:33):
otherwise stood completely. Pat, you were on the Diamondbacks money
line last night. That was a nice cash and you're
on a total in this one tonight.
Speaker 3 (32:42):
Yeah, d bacs Nobe moves at the deadline, but Corbyn
Burns expects to be back by September. I know they
have a couple other guys on the mend as well.
They have so many arms on the injured list. They
have like ten different arms on the injured list, Soroka,
Ryan Nelson, Zach Allen, Corbyn Burns. That's an entire rotation,
Trey Jamison just to Martinez, Ajpuck, Andrew Soff ranks. So
I think a couple of those relievers and Burns are
(33:04):
all coming back by September. They're very much in the
thick of the NL wild card race. But yeah, this
is a bad starting pitching matchup. Two guys a rate
as below average starting pitchers replacement level starting pitchers. Vosquez
strike up minus Walk has dipped into the negatives again,
now walking more than he strikes out everything in his
arsenal getting absolutely crushed. E Rod shut down Team USA
(33:28):
back in March in the WBC Final. He pitched pretty
well the first couple of months of the season, and
he's gotten progressively worse as well. Now all of his
underlying indicators are in the high fource Vosquez in the
mid fives to low sixes. Don't love this Padres offense,
but it is a very good matchup for them. Don't
love getting these bullpens involved here with a potential over
(33:50):
because I do like both bullpens, but still make this
total about nine point three, like the over eight and
a half up to nine at even money. Now, this
is a total that opened it nine and a half
and went all the way down to eight and a half.
So we are betting against the market movement here, but
I think we're buying at bottom, with the total ultimately
settling at nine or at least eight and a half.
Speaker 1 (34:11):
Very juiced up.
Speaker 3 (34:12):
So I took eight and a half minus one fifteen
O like that up to minus one twenty or nine
at minus one oh two between the Pods and the
d backs. Hopefully we get some early runs and don't
have to sweat this one. Get it to four to
four quick, all.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
Right, quick little recap because the bets have been scatters
shot throughout our trade deadline talk today. Eighty grade bets
Sean Azam, Guardians money line, Dodgers money line, and Pirates
Brewers under seven and a half. In the sixty grade section,
we like Tiger's first five money line and then overs
in both Angels Orioles and Padres Diamondbacks. It's gonna do it.
(34:49):
For today's episode of Payoff Pitch Thanks so much for
tuning in. If you'd like to tail some of the
bets from today's episode, look for the quick slip links
in the episode description. Don't forget to download the free,
award winning Action Network app, and also please leave us
a five star rating. Interview wherever you listen to the podcast.
Moving back on Friday with another episode, Derek Carty joining us.
(35:10):
Actually I'll be out. It'll be Sean and Derek coming
in hot with the bets on Friday for Shanzarello, I'm
Collin Richard. Thanks for listening to Payoff Pitch Action Networks,
major League Baseball Betting podcast, and good luck with all
your bets. Heard of his crowd on his feet? What
(35:38):
a trigger?
Speaker 3 (35:40):
No?
Speaker 2 (35:40):
What Watch the Way
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