July 27, 2026 • 39 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch and Sean Zerillo are here to break down the Monday's MLB slate. The guys dive into sides and totals for today as well as revisite their futures from the pre season. Tune in to hear his top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page so you don't miss our live shows every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Fall, no crying, and this game's underway. In the wind
up it is springstopering.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Josh the bit out sign.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos, who
will be a home run.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
And hello to time you talk about a roll at
the dice.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch, Action Network's Major League Baseball betting podcast.
It is Monday, July twenty seventh. I'm Colin Wichard, joined
as usual by Action Network senior MLB analyst Shumsillo to
break down this Monday slate. It's not a full slate
like it was weirdly last Monday, but it's still a
(00:55):
pretty busy Monday slate. Three six, nine, twelve games. One
afternoon game. Uh, not a place we usually get Monday
afternoon games. Arlington Mariners Rangers get started at two thirty
five pm. Everything else under the light. But it's a
light card for us. Today. We're gonna jump through a
couple of quick eighty grade bets that we're gonna talk
(01:16):
a little bit futures. There's a little bit of an
interesting future updates here. As we are about a week
a little less than a week I think from the
trade deadline, right around a week from the trade deadline Monday. Yeah, yeah,
next Monday. So we've got some future takes, thoughts on
Otani and MVP with him not pitching, some thoughts on
(01:36):
Mizzowski and cy Young with the mayor with the Brewers
limiting his load. So we'll get to that at the end.
We'll get to your Monday bets here off the jump, though,
Sean has two and I have one, but I'm gonna
let you go first. Here, Sean, with your first and
only money line play on this Monday. It is in
(02:00):
Diamondbacks and Pirates.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
Yeah, two teams.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
He might be active at the trade deadline, as they're
both sitting around the edges of the wildcard race. I
took the Dbacks last night at plus one ten, like
them down to even money. It is closer to even
money today, but still some room. I think I saw
about plus one h two plus one oh three this morning.
It's still a couple of points left the value in
my opinion. Looking at the season long rankings. You know,
Merrill Kelly has been absolutely horrendous, but over the past
(02:27):
thirty days he and Mitch Keller have pitched pretty Similarly,
Mitch Keller, a guy we've mentioned on this pod in
the past, significantly we're second half numbers than first half
numbers throughout his career, not in terms of like the
strike up minus walk or the expected fit, but the results.
He just gives up more home runs, way more home
runs and gets hit harder in the second half of
the year than he does in the first half of
(02:48):
the year. I don't know if that's like a two
strike execution thing. I don't know if that's just he
doesn't jive as well with the warm weather as he
does with cooler temperatures earlier in the year, but very
consistently Mitch Kelly about six tensive run worse in terms
of his era second half is his first half. I
believe career four to three in the first half, four
to nine in the second half. And again, the rolling
(03:10):
thirty day metrics for both he and Merrill Kelly are
very similar. Four point four and five point one expected
Fippen tiero for Kelly over that span, five point two
and four seventy five for Keller. Strikeout minus walk right
in near ten percent for both over that span. On
the season, I have Keller about thirty spots better. In
terms of my starting pitching rankings over the past thirty days,
(03:33):
I actually have Merril Kelly four spots better, who won
twenty five for Keller, won twenty one for Kelly on
the season, one sixty seven for Keller, won ninety seven
for Kelly. There's a smaller sample of pitchers over the
past thirty days, but basically thirty spots apart on the season,
four spots apart over the past.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Month or so.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
Now the rest of the matchup again starting pitchers. Ultimately
I quantify them about the same here the rest of
the matchup I do. Favorite Arizona offense is a round
the same, about one point differential in terms of WRC
plus against right hand and pitching. In terms of I
would project these two teams out, they get there in
different ways. Though. The Dback's one of the best contact
oriented offenses. The Pirates do not hit for contact, but
(04:14):
they have the better power and play discipline ratings here.
The difference though, in the position player groups is the
defense and the base running. Overall. In terms of ranking
out the thirty teams in terms of position player group quality,
Arizona actually ranks as my third best team in terms
of factoring in defense and base running as well. Pirates
I have at twenty third and the bullpen's kind of
(04:34):
align pretty similarly. Arizona seventh for me, Pittsburgh twenty fourth,
about three seventy five and a way to fit projection
versus four point three. So pictures about the same starting
pitchers about the same prefer the Arizona bullpen pretty strongly
prefer the Arizona defense pretty strongly. Offensive quality about the same.
Pittsburgh with the power advantage definitely is a slight boost
(04:57):
in their favor, But Diamondbacks is the higher floor with
the better contact grade. So I make Arizona again about
minus one o eight here would bet them down to
even money for today. Already get some positive momentum on
the line in our favor. But if you've been telling
me this season, if you've been telling me over the
past month plus, that hasn't meant anything unfortunately, because we
just keep getting colv and not getting the results home.
(05:20):
I'm gonna have an article coming out on Action network
dot com. I'm gonna have a series of articles coming
out detailing how to use the Bartold tool a little
bit better future odds that Colin and I are going
to get to it a little bit. I'll have an
updated live futures board that you guys can look at
for player futures, but also going to be discussing COLV
and going through the Action Labs history of CLV and
(05:40):
the correlation between getting closing line value and profit. It
does align with the expectations. The more CLV you get,
the better your results should be. In Right now in July,
we're just running way underwater in terms of COLV.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Relative to results, and it sucks.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
But do like to see the only thing I can
ask for positively periodame. Do like to see the market
at least moving in our direction in terms of these
two bats so deep backs down to even money the
loan money line played for today, I've got one total
and then I've got three other totals.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
We're gonna watch a zampire's going Yeah. Mitch Keller versus
Merrill Kelly might be the grossest pitching matchup of the day.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Like there was a bit of a tounchwister for me,
not gonna lie like saying their names back and forth
with each other too. The Keller the Kelly was I
was getting a little uh mixed up, but I think
I got through it.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
There are worst starting pitchers than Meryl Kelly and Mitch Keller,
but I don't just I don't know if there's just
like worst watches, it's it's the battle of Keller and
his second half swoon. He didn't even make it to
the second half before he started his swoon this year.
His first eight starts of the year, he had a
two eight seven the IRA. Ever since May thirteenth, he
(06:49):
just made it to mid May. Since May thirteenth is
the RA six four six. So, uh, he's been bad.
Merril Kelly a big topic of conversation in my Fantasy
Baseball Like he was like SP twenty in Fantasy last year.
I think he enters today as SP one oh one
in Fantasy.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Just and it's not a surprise. I mean, he's in
his late thirties, he's always been, you know, a control
command guy, and starting to come back to bite him
in a big way. So I saw that pitching matchup
and my eyes immediately went toward a potential total play there. Sure,
(07:26):
I know you don't have any total edge there. I
start it opened at nine, it's up to nine and
a half. Your total projection according to the r TOAL
Tools eight point nine to eight. So the books know
for this pitching matchup isn't They've reacted accordingly, which have
taken away a lot of value. But bad pitching might
be the name of the game today. I'm gonna give
(07:47):
out a bet here. You know, I don't always give
out bets on this show, and when I do, it's
usually props. I don't usually take sides and totals, but
I locked in this side more than twelve hours ago.
As soon as the starting pitcher in this matchup got announced,
I have to talk about it. Nationals Blue Jays today.
(08:08):
Max Scherzer on the mound for the Blue Jays. I
think this is going to be the last start of
Max Scherzer's career. Max Scherzer has he's hung on a
year too late. You know, things were set up so
perfectly for this previous generation of starting pitchers. Everyone's going
to talk about Kershaw, Schurzer, Verlander. They're kind of they're
(08:33):
the last of their kind, right, the last of the
two hundred plus innings, two hundred and fifty plus strikeout aces,
workhorse aces. Kershaw called it a career after last year
Verlander and Schurzer should have done the same. Schurzer had
his moment too last year. He had nobody believed in
him the World Series. He he guted out, kept the
(08:54):
Blue Jays in the game, started Game seven of the
World Series, and put his team in position to win.
It obviously work out, but uh, this is it for
Sureser and we're getting the Nationals money line around minus
one p thirty. I'm just like, I don't care. This
is one of those instances where I throw the analytics
out the window. I don't know what they say. I
(09:15):
just know that Schurzer has entered the auto fade territory.
We've talked a lot over the years. We've been doing
this podcast for five years now or something, and it's
a very common internal conversation among the MLB vertical about
these auto fade pitchers. Sometimes we're a little too quick
to call them. But the two instances that come to
(09:37):
mind at the end of their careers were Jake Arietta
and then Dallas Kikel. Kikel, who, by the way, just
signed a minor league deal with the Athletics, so we
still might not be done with Kykeel. Hilariously, the one
thing that these guys have in common. You know, these
guys are not Hall of famers like Schurzers. But that's
again former Sahai Young winners hanging on a little bit
(09:58):
too long. We've we've tried to get there with other guys.
Patrick Corbyn people talked about a lot toward the enn
of Washington. He had a really bad run, kind of
dug his career out of the grave. But I have
very vivid memories of the last start I believe. I'm
not sure if it was the last start of Kykele's
career at this point, but I thought it was gonna be.
(10:19):
It was his last start during his cup of coffee
with the Rangers. Now, he did make a couple starts
for the Twins and Brewers after that, but it was
right before he got dfaed by the Rangers. Came on
this podcast. Was when Brandon Glasheen was still on the
show that he was in Boston, and I said, I'm
betting Red Sox money line, Red Sox first five money line.
(10:41):
I'm betting Red Sox first five team total over team
total over, and Glassheen was going to the game and
he's like, oh, I'm locking all these in so fun
to root for. And I think Kykele didn't make it
out of the second inning. He got shelled, gave up
like six runs. And that's where we're at with Shres,
and it's crazy. This is an all time great, this
is a future Hall of Famer. This guy's got thirty
(11:02):
five hundred strikeouts, he's got seventy three point eight career
war and I I you know, I I locked this
in yesterday. I was locking this in no matter what
went onto you know the Bartolo tool. Today, see what
you've got it. You've got no money line edge here. Obviously,
the Nationals are throwing out a left handed starting pitcher.
(11:22):
The Blue Jays offense four is underwhelming as it's been
this year, still a lot better against lefties with Alvarez
Andrew Elverrez. I think it's Andrew Elvarez area for the Nationals.
They've got a bad bullpen. Maybe the play is to
just go with the total, but that's gotten way up
there as well. There's a good weather adjustment here. You
have Schurzer again using the Bartolo tool, you have Surez's
(11:45):
SP two sixteen. So that's out of how many pitchers Sean.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
I think maybe to nineteen, he might be at the bottom.
I would say, you know, concerning the money line edge
or the lack thereof, I make the that's minus one twenty.
That's roughly what they are. I make the minus one
thirty five for the first five innings. I would recommend
taking some first five. This bullpen is bad. You don't
want the Jay's coming back on you late in this game,
(12:10):
so make sure you have some first five as well
if you're going to be betting into this. But no,
it's not something where I'm like, ah, this is a
bad minus. See I align with the market. So you're
taking like basically a break even price in my opinion,
to fade a guy who's probably worth fading beyond what
the analytics suggests. So I made sure there as bad
as I possibly can. For now worth mentioning his last
(12:31):
rehab start was the best he's pitched oh year, probably
struck out five and three and two thirds, And as
you mentioned before the pod, maybe that's giving us some
added value because I haven't paid attention to mactures as rehab.
But I'm well aware of the fact that his last
rehab stint went well, and maybe other people are too,
so yeah, I am not going to talk you off
of the fade here. I just would recommend having some
(12:53):
first five money line as well.
Speaker 3 (12:55):
Very good call there. It also would be fitting if
sures theer's last career star art comes in Washington Yea
hopefully hopefully gets before he gets absolutely obliterated, maybe gets
a nice ovation from the fans. I looked back to
see how many times he's been back there since leaving
the Nats in twenty twenty one, see if this was
maybe an extra special moment, but it's not. You know,
(13:16):
he was with the Mets for a year and a
half and he pitched there like three or four times,
so he's been back plenty. But obviously that's where his
career heyday is. I was just looking. I was doing
some reminiscing of Suurser before we came on the pod,
and man, that twenty thirteen to twenty eighteen run one
hundred and seven and forty two point eight oney, sixteen
(13:38):
hundred strikeouts in thirteen hundred innings. Three Cy Youngs probably
could have won two more. But I think this is it.
Maybe he's stubborn and he hangs on in the Blue
Jays needs starting pitchers and he goes but this really
feels like, you know, the Blue Jay's a choir starting
pitcher in the next five days, and it's like out
(14:00):
for a future Hall of Famer.
Speaker 4 (14:02):
So you know who he was earlier in his career too,
Like the vibes that I got was was Dylan Cees
on the White Sox.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
That's who Max Scherzer was when he.
Speaker 4 (14:09):
Probably absolutely when he pitched for the Tigers, it was
like you could see all the arm talent, it just
wasn't optimized.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
He almost had too much movement for his own good.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
And they had to eventually like figure out the Tigers
figured out how to optimize him, and then he took
off from there. It seems like the Jays have kind
of done a similar thing with Dylan c So sometimes,
you know, you could just see the obvious arm talent,
the explosive arm talent on some of these guys, and
it takes the right team to optimize them. It takes
a few years of their career to figure out who
they are or what pitches they should be throwing. So
you know, worth knowing in hindsight of this long like
(14:43):
eighteen year career, Max Scherzer when he was with the
d Backs in two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine,
he was considered expendable and they traded him and he
was like a bit of a disappointment relative to how
good he could be, and then he eventually found it.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
Yeah, Cease is a good call there, early career, Robbie Ray.
Same thing, Lakekerer Robbie Ray. That was a crazy trade.
I think a lot of people, if you're not old enough,
if you only started following baseball in the last ten
twelve years, don't even remember sures around the Diamondbacks. Yep,
three team trade, Schureser and Daniel Schlareth to the Tigers.
(15:17):
Tiger that was the trade that sent Curtis Granderson to
the Yankees, Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks, Austin Jackson and
Phil Coke to the Tigers, and also Ian Kennedy to
the Diamondbacks.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Crazy Mark Slais's son, Daniel Slare.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
Yes, that's right. So we'll see for Surezer tonight. But
that is again I was I was on social media
last night and they said the Blue Jays are going
to be activating Max Schurzer making a start tomorrow, and
I just immediately went in and bet national money line.
I think I got it about minus one twenty five.
(15:51):
It's come up to like minus one thirty or so
so far. I'm surprised it hasn't come up more, honestly,
But that is my Max Schurzer rant. That's my one
money line. I'm going to give out a couple of
pro prop projections here at the end before we get
into our futures. But Shan, you have one more bet
to get to. You're playing a total here in Braves Mets.
(16:12):
Curious your thoughts. I'm intriguing young arm for the Mets.
Zach Thornton's been pretty good. The peripherals might not match
the results right now, and then he's going against a
guy whose peripherals haven't matched his results basically his entire
career in Martin Perez, tell me about your total play
here in this one.
Speaker 4 (16:29):
Yeah, I think the biggest aspect of this total is
the fact that Ronaldikuna Junior is coming back tonight, and
he adds about a half a run to my projected
game total in this matchup, adds a significant contribution to
the Braves offense. As you said, Zach Thornton ben solid
this year, one ninety three ERA in twenty three innings,
but all the underlying indicators have him as a league
average starter four point two expected the RA four point
(16:52):
two expected fit for fourths ERA four point three body array,
twenty eight percent call strike was plus web right very good,
not elite though eleit over thirty percent Right now, ranks
is my SP one twenty five. Probably would put him
a little bit better than that based off of the
eye test, but I have him right around league average. Again,
he said, sures Aer around two twenty or so, so
you can figure there's about two hundred twenty pitchers in
(17:13):
those rankings. Thornton right in the middle of those. I
have Martin Perez. Martin Perez at SP one ninety seven
five point one weighted fit projection. He has that eray
in the mid threes. But as you mentioned, because kind
of just over pitched way over his head this year
and in the past thirty days, the rolling sample has
gotten really drastic. He has more walks than strikeouts in
(17:36):
his last three starts to start before that, he had
four walks and four strikeouts, and the opponents he's faced
are not particularly good offense. I mean, the Mets were
on that list, but the Padres, the Mets, the Cardinals,
and the Padres were the four starts where he struggled
to find commit. So his strike out minus walk over
the past thirty days is that minus one percent expected
(17:57):
fit of five point one sierra of five on the season,
underlying indicators between four three and four seven, but a
five poin fifteen body ra I think closer to what
he actually is. As I said at Kuna coming back today,
the Braves of elite contact and elite power don't have
the best plate discipline the Mets of good contact, average
(18:17):
power and average plate discipline. With Juan Soto out of
the lineup, so two good offenses, Braves a little bit
more well rounded, and the power gives them the advantage
they also though, and it's worth noting in terms of
Perez's usage, here have three arms who are probably down
today Ditty or Flintis, Danny Young, Tyler Kinley Based on
recent usage, I have marked is out Mets likely without
(18:40):
Siono Perez today. So that's two key lefties on either team,
or at least one lefty on either team, in addition
to the Braves' main long reliever who're all out. Excuse
me for today, so I make this total about nine
and a quarter. I bet the over eight to eight
and a half at minus one twenty. It has come
up from eight to eight and a half last night,
but you can take it to minus one twenty between
(19:02):
the Mets and the Braves. Assuming Ronald the Kunr Junior
gets activated. I will be continuing on with that bet.
If for some reason he does not get activated today,
I would probably be looking to buy off or at
least take the under eight and a half. Now that
I have an over eight, so Mets Braves over eight
and a half to minus one twenty. The loan total
I fired on so far today worth watching Astro's and
(19:25):
Angels over eight and a half, Brewers and Giants under
eight and a half, and then Cardinals and Cubs under ten.
Those three are all borderline at the moment, may push
into play territory depending upon umpires, depending on whether as
we get closer to game time. Win out in San
Francisco always is, but no real park effect there for
(19:47):
me tonight. The Angel's weather, the Cubs weather, the Cardinals
weather in Bush Stadium, the Angels weather and Anaheim. Those
are a little bit more interesting to me in terms
of keeping an eye out throughout the day because the
Cardinals specifically, temperature is going to be the nineties wind
blowing out to center field tonight, but not particularly strong wind,
and based upon like the weather curve, it may actually
(20:07):
get to like the mid eighties before game time. So
I really want to see what the temps are gonna
be like in Saint Louis later day and the umpire
before I consider taking an under in a game started
by David Peterson. Yeah, those are the three I'm keeping
an eye on. The two plays as I said, dbacks
to even money and then the Mets over to eight
and a half at minus one twenty.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
And if shan Zarillo adds any of those bets to
his card, he will track them in the Action app.
You can get instant notifications anytime Sean track's a bet
in the app with Action Pro. So that's reminder that
if you sign up for Action Pro, you get those
real time picklers from experts like shan Zarillo, Grant ne For,
Derek Cardy, and our entire Action Network team. Plus you
(20:49):
can access our pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and
our predictive analytics team. She go to Actionework dot Com
slash Pro. You get twenty dollars off the annual price
with the promo code Pod twenty. So do I'll miss
out on the best bets at the best prices. Visit
actionetwork dot Com slash Pro. Use promo code pod twenty
to get twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro.
That's how you get notified when Sean Zarillo logs bet
(21:13):
in the app. It's also how you get our pro
prop projections. Not a lot of props on our cards today, Sean.
Obviously you're usually a money line and totals guy, So
I'm gonna throw out a couple of props here by
using the pro prop projections in the Action app with
(21:33):
my pro subscription. Three totals, I'm sorry, three strikeouts, three
homers that I just want to mention here because they're
getting good percentage edges via Sean Kerner's analytics team. We've
talked about a couple of these guys. One we haven't
talked about is Peyton totally under five and a half
strikeouts plus one oh five. That's an eighteen point one
(21:56):
percent edge according to Action Pro as of when I
grabbed these. Our colleague Derek Cardy is on the totally
fade train today. He's on his under an out recorded,
which I think is like seventeen and a half. Really
interesting Red Sox trade the other day, getting rid of
one of their two big big arms, and Connolly Early
sending him for Curtis Mead. They're hanging on to Totally,
(22:17):
Obviously they think more of Totally than they do Early.
Totally has had more success this season than Early, but
pro thinks that he's a little overvalued today in Sacramento.
I'm not sure what the effect pitching in Sacramento has
on pitchers, you know, comparable to Cours or whatever, but
maybe the books are valuing Totally a little bit too
(22:38):
highly today. Other two guys we've talked about already Max
Schurezer under three and a half strikeouts, that's minus one
sixty sixteen point three percent edge there, don't really need
to go into that anymore. Talked at length about reasons
to fade Sureser today, and then Martin Perez going with
the over there in the game. So under three and
a half strikeouts for re at plus one ten, that's
(23:01):
a sixteen point two percent edge, So trio of strikeout unders.
And then our top homer projections, or at least three
of our top homer projections that I looked at. Were
you henney O Suarez in Red's Guardians in Cincinnati today,
Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run at plus four hundred.
Love that one in particular going against Noah Schultz, who's
(23:24):
really struggled, and gold Schmidt against the lefty is usually
something that you on a target, so getting him at
plus four hundred seems like a good good shot. And
then you talked about David Peterson to Matthew Libertor not
a super exciting pitching matchup in Saint Louis, and pro
likes Saya Suzuki to go deep in that one at
(23:44):
plus four hundred. It's actually got a couple of cubs
up there, Michael Bush, who I stayed away from lefty
lefty against Libertor. And then Pete crow Armstrong also lefty lefty.
But Pete crow Armstrong can obviously hit a home run
against anyone right now, so those are yes, great segue.
Pete crow Armstrong obviously a chance to homer tonight in
Saint Louis. So that's going to do it for our
(24:05):
Monday bets. Uh, If you're just interested in the Monday bets,
that's the end of the pod for you. But if
you want to stick around for some futures talk, we're
going to do that for just a few minutes here,
because Sean, you have some thoughts here. There's been some
interesting movement in a couple of these awards markets. The
first one we want to talk about is the aforementioned
NL MVP race. Sho Hey Otani no longer pitching for
(24:27):
the Dodgers, no timetable for when he's going to return
to pitching for the Dodgers. That significantly impacts his MVP odds.
I'm looking at DraftKings right now, he's still minus two
twenty to win NL MVP. You can actually bet him
versus the field at minus two forty five versus plus
one eighty five for any other player. That's not as
interesting right now, because according to the odds, this has
(24:48):
essentially become a two person race of Otani against Pete
Crow Armstrong Otani again minus two twenty PCA plus one ninety.
If you're looking at the war leader boards, it gets
a lot more in when you factor in PCA's elite
Elite Elite center field defense with what he's doing at
the plate right now and Otani coming off the mound
(25:10):
and also having a pedestrian for him season at the
plate opens this wide. So Sean, what are your thoughts
here on this race? Are you seeing value on PCA
or anyone else or just something you're keeping an eye
on here with Otani off the mound.
Speaker 4 (25:27):
So if Otani was named Jim Smith and we didn't
have like two straight years of him winning vps and
all the media love for him, et cetera, this is
an obvious PCA bit obvious pc is already a win
ahead and winsbub replacement both b War and f War,
and he projects to finish I believe a win and
(25:47):
a half above at the end of the season, and
that's assuming Otani still pitches a little bit. I think
Otani I want to I want to just pull Atani's
pitching projections because I want to see how much of
his pitching war is still baked in projection still. So
Atani making five starts, I don't see that happening. I
think he makes two, maybe.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
Right to the end of the season to get ready
for October. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (26:08):
Yeah, do you see him throwing thirty more innings. No, no,
so Otani is a hitter. The rest of the way
projects for about two war at best. I'll get into
that in a moment. PCA is a hitter. The rest
of the way projects for the same about the same
two point two for both. That's hitting in defense or
(26:29):
PCA just hitting for Otani. But again, PCAs already went
ahead in both F war and B War. Where's Otani
gonna make up that room if he's not pitching, If
he's not pitching more than two starts. So I do
think the projections right now are baking in or the
projections are certainly baking in Otani pitching the rest of
the way. The shutdown from the bullpen session thing yesterday,
I think he's coming back in September and just like
(26:51):
making one start, maybe two starts to get himself right
for the playoffs, and that's it, and that's best case scenario.
Speaker 2 (26:58):
Now.
Speaker 4 (26:58):
Otani at the plate is been the unders discuss thing.
Obviously like a disappointing season for him this year. Well,
he's hurt right now, and it's not like the injury
has not affected his hitting performance. In July, Otani is
an eighty two w RSC plus. He's hitting two twenty
in July. He's hurt, like he's very clearly hurt, and
(27:22):
it is affected not only obviously his ability to throw
the baseball, but his ability to hit the baseball. He's
hitting two twenty four with a two seventy seven opp
and a four to thirty four slug in July as
an eighty two w RSC plus. That's a two ninety wOBA.
He does have a three to sixty expected WHOBA. So
he has drastically underperformed his expected results this month, but
(27:43):
all the same PCAs ahead. PCA projects the same as
Otani the rest of the way, if not better, considering
Otani is not probably playing up to his projections. I
mean these projections say Otani hits seventeen homers the rest
of the way. If you think Otani's hitting seventeen homers
on us the way, So right now, I make PCA
(28:05):
about plus one sixty for NL MVP, I make Otani
minus one twenty. You can get PCA believe as highest
plus two forty yesterday. I know you said he was
down closer to plus one ninety today. The last number
I had in here that uploaded was plus two forty,
so that's obviously a much bigger edge. But yeah, PCA
down to plus one eighty looks like pretty definitively a
(28:27):
bet right now. Again, I have them finishing half a
win within one another O twenty eight five PCA at nine.
I think right now the gap is a win, and
I think it's only going to grow if anything. I
think Otani can maybe keep it even, but I think
it's going to grow if anything. So PCA would be
the bet right now for NL Saiyung. I regret we
discussed this at the All Star break. I regret not
(28:48):
check on the field at nine to one, I believe
or whatever it was against Atani when they're already indications
that he was maybe not going to pitch that much
from that point forward. So yeah, I think PCA has
to be the bet. My reservation, just or purely it's Otani.
He's going to get a boost regardless if it's close,
but beyond that, I think it's pretty clearly PCA right now.
Speaker 3 (29:11):
Yeah, he's a guy who voter fatigue doesn't seem to
be a thing for him, if any of the opposite. Yeah,
the other interesting thing about PCA is that you know,
We've seen his bat absolutely go in the tank in
the past. In the second half of last year, it
absolutely went in the tank. First month or two of
this year, it was pretty heavily in the tank, yep.
(29:31):
But if you're looking at war totals, which a lot
of MVP voters you know, take as gospel or factored
in more than anything else, the defense is still going
to be prop up his war, even if he hits
in August and September more like he did in April
than he did in June and July.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
It's also I should mention too, you know.
Speaker 4 (29:53):
We obviously the defense factors in humongously to his total.
He and Andy Paeas are the two best defensive centerfielder
this year's two best defenders arguably this year by Sabers
Defensive Index. So he's also probably gonna win the Platinum Glove. Yeah,
that's gonna help as well.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
Very interesting stuff, you know, never thought we'd see. I'm
I was gonna say the only reason Otani's ever gonna
not win it is if he gets hurt. But I
guess he has gotten hurt. Oh yeah, a little bit.
But he's won MVPs in seasons where he didn't pitch
just just a couple of years ago. So interesting stuff
there in the MVP race. One other race we wanted
(30:32):
to touch on very briefly is nlsay Young. I can't
remember if we talked about this on a pod already
or just on the side. Jacob Mezowski is still sitting
at minus three hundred. Brewers are obviously being very very
cautious with his workload down the stretch. Two starts ago,
only through sixty five pitches in four innings. Last start
he went in the eighties in five innings, Still struck
(30:54):
out twelve, Still absolutely dominating every time he gets on
the mound. But it's going to be really really interesting,
you know, if we get toward the end of the season.
Even if Misowski keeps dominating, his innings number it's really low.
He barely clears the one sixty two to be qualified
for the ERA title. You have Zach Wheeler taking over
(31:16):
his second favorite now at DraftKings at plus seven to fifty,
right ahead of his teammate Christopher Sanchez at plus eight fifty.
Christopher Sanchez, it's taking a little dip last couple starts
is ERA. He's gotten dinged up a little bit, Chris
Sale nine to one. And then the guy I keep
staring at, the guy who I think might be the
best pitcher in the National League right now, Chase Burns
twenty to one pitching tonight for the Reds. I believe
(31:40):
he's sitting at four point six reference War, he's also
twelve to one. For as much as wins and losses
still matter to maybe a handful of voters. So I
don't know. You know, I've mentioned Burns as someone I
want to pull the trigger on a couple times. You've
mentioned schemes. Who's sitting at forty to one just doesn't
seem to be He's kind of running out of time
(32:02):
to get his numbers back to where to where they
were when he won it last year. Burns is the
guy for me. Wheeler, we talked about the narrative he's
never won it. This is toward the end of his career.
I think last year will probably be the last season
of his career, if he's to be believed about retiring
after his current contract comes to an end. Do you
(32:22):
have any thoughts here on essentially Miserowski versus the field
and if you like the field, who between Wheeler Sancha
sale Burns Yamamoto didn't mention it twenty eight to one,
and then Schemes.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
Yeah, I still have Sancha's second.
Speaker 4 (32:38):
But obviously he's just like not nearly as effective of
late as he was in the first half. And I
don't think he's going to pitch up to the level
where he pitched in the first half. I only make
Miserowski plus one sixty, but that's because the war totals
are going to be so low. The other thing that
you got to mention, though, is the fact that he's
nineteen strikeouts ahead of the next closest guy right now,
(33:01):
and in the National League, I think the gap is
even wider. So he's been so efficient. In the other
day again, he threw eighty pitches but struck out twelve
and five innings. Yes, the Brewers are going to manage
his workload down the stretch here a little bit. I
think as long as he gets to one hundred and
fifty innings, as long as his ERA is sub two
(33:22):
and he has the strikeout lead in the National League,
if not all of baseball, he's going to win it.
I think the strikeout aspect of it, the counting having
it like, despite the innings potentially being lower, being the
counting stat leader or among one of the counting stat leaders,
especially in strikeouts, is a big boost. That is something
(33:43):
that I've looked into in terms of quantifying side grace.
It does factor into my calculus. It's not just innings.
The total strikeouts really does matter quite a bit too.
So I think that's going to save him, provided he
does not get lit up one or two times down
the stretch here and that ear ends up inflating north
of two worth mentioning he's given up eight unearned runs
(34:05):
this year. He should have closer to two ERA as
Shad cam Schlitler for that reason, but he's gotten away
with some friendly home scorekeeping. I believe there was a
start where there was a two out error and then
he gave up four runs after that, and none of
them ended up counting against his tally. So been a
little bit unfortunate or been a little bit fortunate to
maintain that lower array, But all the same, he's on
(34:26):
a start to start base has been maybe the highest
rated I've ever made a starting pitcher in my model, Like,
I'm raiding this guy at a sub two weighted fit
projection I think that Gram was the only other person
who ever approached that Pete de Gram got there. Miserowski's unbelievable,
but yeah, it's purely about innings and efficiency the rest
of the way, I have a Sanchez ticket. I'm not
(34:46):
going to bet into this market otherwise, but that's basically
how I see it. As long as the strikeouts are
near the lead or on the lead, Misserowski's probably still
going to be the guy I would take a shot
with PCA. I really would, and I'm going to consider
doing it personally. I think among the main awards markets,
he's my most interesting bet, in my most actionable bet
(35:08):
right now. McGonagall, you and I discussed before we jumped
on the pod. I make him about minus three thirty.
You can get him as high as minus or low
as minus two eighty. I think McGonagall is a plus
ev bet right now. Murakami would really need to hit
like fifteen homers the rest of the way to get
back in the conversation.
Speaker 2 (35:27):
And then in the NL.
Speaker 4 (35:28):
I know salth Stewart is picking up some steam because
this offensive numbers are comparable to JJ wetherhol jj Weatherhold,
though is the best or second best defensive second basement
in baseball. South Stewart is a average to below average
defensive first baseman, and you need to understand that the
average production stats for second base are way different than
(35:50):
the average production stats for first base, and as a result,
that's why the first baseman gets docked so much in
terms of.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
The positional adjustment for war. So I see people posting this.
Speaker 4 (35:59):
Side by side of like the e ref stats for
weather Holt and South Stewart and being like.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
How's weather Holt. I'm so big he's trailing in all
these categories. Yeah, he's the best defender in baseball.
Speaker 4 (36:09):
Like that adds all of all of South Stuart's offensive
contributions are basically equivalent to what JJ Weatherholt does defensively
and on the base pass, So worth noting that would
not be firing or not telling the crowd on South
Stewart at these long odds, I still think Nolan McLain
is the closest contender in terms of taking down weather Holp.
But I think the two rookies who were the favorites
(36:30):
we have tickets on weather Holt McGonagall. I think they're
both gonna end up winning the awards. But My biggest
favorite right now, as I said to you and all
the awards markets, is Yorton. I think you'redon minus three
forty with Bobby Wick going down, So I think PCA.
You know, like I said, it's significantly closer to Otani
than anybody in the al. Is the Jordon that Bobby
win injury was crucial for Yorton's chances. As long as
(36:51):
Jordon doesn't get hurt, should be his award to lose.
Speaker 3 (36:55):
Yeah, real quick, I know we need to get out
of here, but the salth Stewart thing is absurd to me. Uh,
You've got a first baseman with a one sixteen ops
plus sixteen percent above average offensive first baseman weather holds
one eleven. You're telling me that because Sal Stewart has
five points of ops plus that he should win the
(37:19):
SAYA or the Rookie of the Year over a guy
who is maybe slightly worse offensively and Eam's better defensively.
That's one of the funnies. And I love Sal Stewart,
Don't get me wrong. I love Sal Stewart, but he
is a slightly above average offensive first baseman. You've got
(37:40):
a if you're gonna have a first baseman who offers
no defensive utility.
Speaker 1 (37:44):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (37:45):
And you want to win Rookie of the Year, you've
got to have like a one forty ops plus. You know,
one fifty ops plus. He's at one sixteen. Let's calm
down with our South Stewart.
Speaker 4 (37:54):
Or anybodys you to do it, Nick Kurtz did last year.
But you got to be better than slightly above average.
Speaker 3 (37:59):
Exactly, exactly good stuff, though. Main headline main takeaway from
this little mini future segment is p c A for
n L m VP. Never thought I think today? Yeah, yeah,
all right, that's gonna do it for today's episode to
Payoff Pitch. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you'd
like to tell some of the bests from today's episode,
look for the quick slip links in the episode description.
(38:20):
Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network app. Also,
please leave us a five star rating and review wherever
you listen to the podcast. We will be back tomorrow,
same time, same place, another episode of Payoff Pitch for
shan Zarella. I'm Collin Wickards. Thanks again for listening Payoff
Pitch Action Networks MLV Betting podcast. Good luck with all
your bests.
Speaker 2 (38:48):
Heard this crowd on his street. What a trip, No
watcha
Fall, no crying, and this game's underway. In the wind
up it is springstopering.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Josh the bit out sign.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos, who
will be a home run.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
And hello to time you talk about a roll at
the dice.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch, Action Network's Major League Baseball betting podcast.
It is Monday, July twenty seventh. I'm Colin Wichard, joined
as usual by Action Network senior MLB analyst Shumsillo to
break down this Monday slate. It's not a full slate
like it was weirdly last Monday, but it's still a
(00:55):
pretty busy Monday slate. Three six, nine, twelve games. One
afternoon game. Uh, not a place we usually get Monday
afternoon games. Arlington Mariners Rangers get started at two thirty
five pm. Everything else under the light. But it's a
light card for us. Today. We're gonna jump through a
couple of quick eighty grade bets that we're gonna talk
(01:16):
a little bit futures. There's a little bit of an
interesting future updates here. As we are about a week
a little less than a week I think from the
trade deadline, right around a week from the trade deadline Monday. Yeah, yeah,
next Monday. So we've got some future takes, thoughts on
Otani and MVP with him not pitching, some thoughts on
(01:36):
Mizzowski and cy Young with the mayor with the Brewers
limiting his load. So we'll get to that at the end.
We'll get to your Monday bets here off the jump, though,
Sean has two and I have one, but I'm gonna
let you go first. Here, Sean, with your first and
only money line play on this Monday. It is in
(02:00):
Diamondbacks and Pirates.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
Yeah, two teams.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
He might be active at the trade deadline, as they're
both sitting around the edges of the wildcard race. I
took the Dbacks last night at plus one ten, like
them down to even money. It is closer to even
money today, but still some room. I think I saw
about plus one h two plus one oh three this morning.
It's still a couple of points left the value in
my opinion. Looking at the season long rankings. You know,
Merrill Kelly has been absolutely horrendous, but over the past
(02:27):
thirty days he and Mitch Keller have pitched pretty Similarly,
Mitch Keller, a guy we've mentioned on this pod in
the past, significantly we're second half numbers than first half
numbers throughout his career, not in terms of like the
strike up minus walk or the expected fit, but the results.
He just gives up more home runs, way more home
runs and gets hit harder in the second half of
the year than he does in the first half of
(02:48):
the year. I don't know if that's like a two
strike execution thing. I don't know if that's just he
doesn't jive as well with the warm weather as he
does with cooler temperatures earlier in the year, but very
consistently Mitch Kelly about six tensive run worse in terms
of his era second half is his first half. I
believe career four to three in the first half, four
to nine in the second half. And again, the rolling
(03:10):
thirty day metrics for both he and Merrill Kelly are
very similar. Four point four and five point one expected
Fippen tiero for Kelly over that span, five point two
and four seventy five for Keller. Strikeout minus walk right
in near ten percent for both over that span. On
the season, I have Keller about thirty spots better. In
terms of my starting pitching rankings over the past thirty days,
(03:33):
I actually have Merril Kelly four spots better, who won
twenty five for Keller, won twenty one for Kelly on
the season, one sixty seven for Keller, won ninety seven
for Kelly. There's a smaller sample of pitchers over the
past thirty days, but basically thirty spots apart on the season,
four spots apart over the past.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Month or so.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
Now the rest of the matchup again starting pitchers. Ultimately
I quantify them about the same here the rest of
the matchup I do. Favorite Arizona offense is a round
the same, about one point differential in terms of WRC
plus against right hand and pitching. In terms of I
would project these two teams out, they get there in
different ways. Though. The Dback's one of the best contact
oriented offenses. The Pirates do not hit for contact, but
(04:14):
they have the better power and play discipline ratings here.
The difference though, in the position player groups is the
defense and the base running. Overall. In terms of ranking
out the thirty teams in terms of position player group quality,
Arizona actually ranks as my third best team in terms
of factoring in defense and base running as well. Pirates
I have at twenty third and the bullpen's kind of
(04:34):
align pretty similarly. Arizona seventh for me, Pittsburgh twenty fourth,
about three seventy five and a way to fit projection
versus four point three. So pictures about the same starting
pitchers about the same prefer the Arizona bullpen pretty strongly
prefer the Arizona defense pretty strongly. Offensive quality about the same.
Pittsburgh with the power advantage definitely is a slight boost
(04:57):
in their favor, But Diamondbacks is the higher floor with
the better contact grade. So I make Arizona again about
minus one o eight here would bet them down to
even money for today. Already get some positive momentum on
the line in our favor. But if you've been telling
me this season, if you've been telling me over the
past month plus, that hasn't meant anything unfortunately, because we
just keep getting colv and not getting the results home.
(05:20):
I'm gonna have an article coming out on Action network
dot com. I'm gonna have a series of articles coming
out detailing how to use the Bartold tool a little
bit better future odds that Colin and I are going
to get to it a little bit. I'll have an
updated live futures board that you guys can look at
for player futures, but also going to be discussing COLV
and going through the Action Labs history of CLV and
(05:40):
the correlation between getting closing line value and profit. It
does align with the expectations. The more CLV you get,
the better your results should be. In Right now in July,
we're just running way underwater in terms of COLV.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Relative to results, and it sucks.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
But do like to see the only thing I can
ask for positively periodame. Do like to see the market
at least moving in our direction in terms of these
two bats so deep backs down to even money the
loan money line played for today, I've got one total
and then I've got three other totals.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
We're gonna watch a zampire's going Yeah. Mitch Keller versus
Merrill Kelly might be the grossest pitching matchup of the day.
Speaker 4 (06:19):
Like there was a bit of a tounchwister for me,
not gonna lie like saying their names back and forth
with each other too. The Keller the Kelly was I
was getting a little uh mixed up, but I think
I got through it.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
There are worst starting pitchers than Meryl Kelly and Mitch Keller,
but I don't just I don't know if there's just
like worst watches, it's it's the battle of Keller and
his second half swoon. He didn't even make it to
the second half before he started his swoon this year.
His first eight starts of the year, he had a
two eight seven the IRA. Ever since May thirteenth, he
(06:49):
just made it to mid May. Since May thirteenth is
the RA six four six. So, uh, he's been bad.
Merril Kelly a big topic of conversation in my Fantasy
Baseball Like he was like SP twenty in Fantasy last year.
I think he enters today as SP one oh one
in Fantasy.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Just and it's not a surprise. I mean, he's in
his late thirties, he's always been, you know, a control
command guy, and starting to come back to bite him
in a big way. So I saw that pitching matchup
and my eyes immediately went toward a potential total play there. Sure,
(07:26):
I know you don't have any total edge there. I
start it opened at nine, it's up to nine and
a half. Your total projection according to the r TOAL
Tools eight point nine to eight. So the books know
for this pitching matchup isn't They've reacted accordingly, which have
taken away a lot of value. But bad pitching might
be the name of the game today. I'm gonna give
(07:47):
out a bet here. You know, I don't always give
out bets on this show, and when I do, it's
usually props. I don't usually take sides and totals, but
I locked in this side more than twelve hours ago.
As soon as the starting pitcher in this matchup got announced,
I have to talk about it. Nationals Blue Jays today.
(08:08):
Max Scherzer on the mound for the Blue Jays. I
think this is going to be the last start of
Max Scherzer's career. Max Scherzer has he's hung on a
year too late. You know, things were set up so
perfectly for this previous generation of starting pitchers. Everyone's going
to talk about Kershaw, Schurzer, Verlander. They're kind of they're
(08:33):
the last of their kind, right, the last of the
two hundred plus innings, two hundred and fifty plus strikeout aces,
workhorse aces. Kershaw called it a career after last year
Verlander and Schurzer should have done the same. Schurzer had
his moment too last year. He had nobody believed in
him the World Series. He he guted out, kept the
(08:54):
Blue Jays in the game, started Game seven of the
World Series, and put his team in position to win.
It obviously work out, but uh, this is it for
Sureser and we're getting the Nationals money line around minus
one p thirty. I'm just like, I don't care. This
is one of those instances where I throw the analytics
out the window. I don't know what they say. I
(09:15):
just know that Schurzer has entered the auto fade territory.
We've talked a lot over the years. We've been doing
this podcast for five years now or something, and it's
a very common internal conversation among the MLB vertical about
these auto fade pitchers. Sometimes we're a little too quick
to call them. But the two instances that come to
(09:37):
mind at the end of their careers were Jake Arietta
and then Dallas Kikel. Kikel, who, by the way, just
signed a minor league deal with the Athletics, so we
still might not be done with Kykeel. Hilariously, the one
thing that these guys have in common. You know, these
guys are not Hall of famers like Schurzers. But that's
again former Sahai Young winners hanging on a little bit
(09:58):
too long. We've we've tried to get there with other guys.
Patrick Corbyn people talked about a lot toward the enn
of Washington. He had a really bad run, kind of
dug his career out of the grave. But I have
very vivid memories of the last start I believe. I'm
not sure if it was the last start of Kykele's
career at this point, but I thought it was gonna be.
(10:19):
It was his last start during his cup of coffee
with the Rangers. Now, he did make a couple starts
for the Twins and Brewers after that, but it was
right before he got dfaed by the Rangers. Came on
this podcast. Was when Brandon Glasheen was still on the
show that he was in Boston, and I said, I'm
betting Red Sox money line, Red Sox first five money line.
(10:41):
I'm betting Red Sox first five team total over team
total over, and Glassheen was going to the game and
he's like, oh, I'm locking all these in so fun
to root for. And I think Kykele didn't make it
out of the second inning. He got shelled, gave up
like six runs. And that's where we're at with Shres,
and it's crazy. This is an all time great, this
is a future Hall of Famer. This guy's got thirty
(11:02):
five hundred strikeouts, he's got seventy three point eight career
war and I I you know, I I locked this
in yesterday. I was locking this in no matter what
went onto you know the Bartolo tool. Today, see what
you've got it. You've got no money line edge here. Obviously,
the Nationals are throwing out a left handed starting pitcher.
(11:22):
The Blue Jays offense four is underwhelming as it's been
this year, still a lot better against lefties with Alvarez
Andrew Elverrez. I think it's Andrew Elvarez area for the Nationals.
They've got a bad bullpen. Maybe the play is to
just go with the total, but that's gotten way up
there as well. There's a good weather adjustment here. You
have Schurzer again using the Bartolo tool, you have Surez's
(11:45):
SP two sixteen. So that's out of how many pitchers Sean.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
I think maybe to nineteen, he might be at the bottom.
I would say, you know, concerning the money line edge
or the lack thereof, I make the that's minus one twenty.
That's roughly what they are. I make the minus one
thirty five for the first five innings. I would recommend
taking some first five. This bullpen is bad. You don't
want the Jay's coming back on you late in this game,
(12:10):
so make sure you have some first five as well
if you're going to be betting into this. But no,
it's not something where I'm like, ah, this is a
bad minus. See I align with the market. So you're
taking like basically a break even price in my opinion,
to fade a guy who's probably worth fading beyond what
the analytics suggests. So I made sure there as bad
as I possibly can. For now worth mentioning his last
(12:31):
rehab start was the best he's pitched oh year, probably
struck out five and three and two thirds, And as
you mentioned before the pod, maybe that's giving us some
added value because I haven't paid attention to mactures as rehab.
But I'm well aware of the fact that his last
rehab stint went well, and maybe other people are too,
so yeah, I am not going to talk you off
of the fade here. I just would recommend having some
(12:53):
first five money line as well.
Speaker 3 (12:55):
Very good call there. It also would be fitting if
sures theer's last career star art comes in Washington Yea
hopefully hopefully gets before he gets absolutely obliterated, maybe gets
a nice ovation from the fans. I looked back to
see how many times he's been back there since leaving
the Nats in twenty twenty one, see if this was
maybe an extra special moment, but it's not. You know,
(13:16):
he was with the Mets for a year and a
half and he pitched there like three or four times,
so he's been back plenty. But obviously that's where his
career heyday is. I was just looking. I was doing
some reminiscing of Suurser before we came on the pod,
and man, that twenty thirteen to twenty eighteen run one
hundred and seven and forty two point eight oney, sixteen
(13:38):
hundred strikeouts in thirteen hundred innings. Three Cy Youngs probably
could have won two more. But I think this is it.
Maybe he's stubborn and he hangs on in the Blue
Jays needs starting pitchers and he goes but this really
feels like, you know, the Blue Jay's a choir starting
pitcher in the next five days, and it's like out
(14:00):
for a future Hall of Famer.
Speaker 4 (14:02):
So you know who he was earlier in his career too,
Like the vibes that I got was was Dylan Cees
on the White Sox.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
That's who Max Scherzer was when he.
Speaker 4 (14:09):
Probably absolutely when he pitched for the Tigers, it was
like you could see all the arm talent, it just
wasn't optimized.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
He almost had too much movement for his own good.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
And they had to eventually like figure out the Tigers
figured out how to optimize him, and then he took
off from there. It seems like the Jays have kind
of done a similar thing with Dylan c So sometimes,
you know, you could just see the obvious arm talent,
the explosive arm talent on some of these guys, and
it takes the right team to optimize them. It takes
a few years of their career to figure out who
they are or what pitches they should be throwing. So
you know, worth knowing in hindsight of this long like
(14:43):
eighteen year career, Max Scherzer when he was with the
d Backs in two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine,
he was considered expendable and they traded him and he
was like a bit of a disappointment relative to how
good he could be, and then he eventually found it.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
Yeah, Cease is a good call there, early career, Robbie Ray.
Same thing, Lakekerer Robbie Ray. That was a crazy trade.
I think a lot of people, if you're not old enough,
if you only started following baseball in the last ten
twelve years, don't even remember sures around the Diamondbacks. Yep,
three team trade, Schureser and Daniel Schlareth to the Tigers.
(15:17):
Tiger that was the trade that sent Curtis Granderson to
the Yankees, Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks, Austin Jackson and
Phil Coke to the Tigers, and also Ian Kennedy to
the Diamondbacks.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Crazy Mark Slais's son, Daniel Slare.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
Yes, that's right. So we'll see for Surezer tonight. But
that is again I was I was on social media
last night and they said the Blue Jays are going
to be activating Max Schurzer making a start tomorrow, and
I just immediately went in and bet national money line.
I think I got it about minus one twenty five.
(15:51):
It's come up to like minus one thirty or so
so far. I'm surprised it hasn't come up more, honestly,
But that is my Max Schurzer rant. That's my one
money line. I'm going to give out a couple of
pro prop projections here at the end before we get
into our futures. But Shan, you have one more bet
to get to. You're playing a total here in Braves Mets.
(16:12):
Curious your thoughts. I'm intriguing young arm for the Mets.
Zach Thornton's been pretty good. The peripherals might not match
the results right now, and then he's going against a
guy whose peripherals haven't matched his results basically his entire
career in Martin Perez, tell me about your total play
here in this one.
Speaker 4 (16:29):
Yeah, I think the biggest aspect of this total is
the fact that Ronaldikuna Junior is coming back tonight, and
he adds about a half a run to my projected
game total in this matchup, adds a significant contribution to
the Braves offense. As you said, Zach Thornton ben solid
this year, one ninety three ERA in twenty three innings,
but all the underlying indicators have him as a league
average starter four point two expected the RA four point
(16:52):
two expected fit for fourths ERA four point three body array,
twenty eight percent call strike was plus web right very good,
not elite though eleit over thirty percent Right now, ranks
is my SP one twenty five. Probably would put him
a little bit better than that based off of the
eye test, but I have him right around league average. Again,
he said, sures Aer around two twenty or so, so
you can figure there's about two hundred twenty pitchers in
(17:13):
those rankings. Thornton right in the middle of those. I
have Martin Perez. Martin Perez at SP one ninety seven
five point one weighted fit projection. He has that eray
in the mid threes. But as you mentioned, because kind
of just over pitched way over his head this year
and in the past thirty days, the rolling sample has
gotten really drastic. He has more walks than strikeouts in
(17:36):
his last three starts to start before that, he had
four walks and four strikeouts, and the opponents he's faced
are not particularly good offense. I mean, the Mets were
on that list, but the Padres, the Mets, the Cardinals,
and the Padres were the four starts where he struggled
to find commit. So his strike out minus walk over
the past thirty days is that minus one percent expected
(17:57):
fit of five point one sierra of five on the season,
underlying indicators between four three and four seven, but a
five poin fifteen body ra I think closer to what
he actually is. As I said at Kuna coming back today,
the Braves of elite contact and elite power don't have
the best plate discipline the Mets of good contact, average
(18:17):
power and average plate discipline. With Juan Soto out of
the lineup, so two good offenses, Braves a little bit
more well rounded, and the power gives them the advantage
they also though, and it's worth noting in terms of
Perez's usage, here have three arms who are probably down
today Ditty or Flintis, Danny Young, Tyler Kinley Based on
recent usage, I have marked is out Mets likely without
(18:40):
Siono Perez today. So that's two key lefties on either team,
or at least one lefty on either team, in addition
to the Braves' main long reliever who're all out. Excuse
me for today, so I make this total about nine
and a quarter. I bet the over eight to eight
and a half at minus one twenty. It has come
up from eight to eight and a half last night,
but you can take it to minus one twenty between
(19:02):
the Mets and the Braves. Assuming Ronald the Kunr Junior
gets activated. I will be continuing on with that bet.
If for some reason he does not get activated today,
I would probably be looking to buy off or at
least take the under eight and a half. Now that
I have an over eight, so Mets Braves over eight
and a half to minus one twenty. The loan total
I fired on so far today worth watching Astro's and
(19:25):
Angels over eight and a half, Brewers and Giants under
eight and a half, and then Cardinals and Cubs under ten.
Those three are all borderline at the moment, may push
into play territory depending upon umpires, depending on whether as
we get closer to game time. Win out in San
Francisco always is, but no real park effect there for
(19:47):
me tonight. The Angel's weather, the Cubs weather, the Cardinals
weather in Bush Stadium, the Angels weather and Anaheim. Those
are a little bit more interesting to me in terms
of keeping an eye out throughout the day because the
Cardinals specifically, temperature is going to be the nineties wind
blowing out to center field tonight, but not particularly strong wind,
and based upon like the weather curve, it may actually
(20:07):
get to like the mid eighties before game time. So
I really want to see what the temps are gonna
be like in Saint Louis later day and the umpire
before I consider taking an under in a game started
by David Peterson. Yeah, those are the three I'm keeping
an eye on. The two plays as I said, dbacks
to even money and then the Mets over to eight
and a half at minus one twenty.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
And if shan Zarillo adds any of those bets to
his card, he will track them in the Action app.
You can get instant notifications anytime Sean track's a bet
in the app with Action Pro. So that's reminder that
if you sign up for Action Pro, you get those
real time picklers from experts like shan Zarillo, Grant ne For,
Derek Cardy, and our entire Action Network team. Plus you
(20:49):
can access our pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and
our predictive analytics team. She go to Actionework dot Com
slash Pro. You get twenty dollars off the annual price
with the promo code Pod twenty. So do I'll miss
out on the best bets at the best prices. Visit
actionetwork dot Com slash Pro. Use promo code pod twenty
to get twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro.
That's how you get notified when Sean Zarillo logs bet
(21:13):
in the app. It's also how you get our pro
prop projections. Not a lot of props on our cards today, Sean.
Obviously you're usually a money line and totals guy, So
I'm gonna throw out a couple of props here by
using the pro prop projections in the Action app with
(21:33):
my pro subscription. Three totals, I'm sorry, three strikeouts, three
homers that I just want to mention here because they're
getting good percentage edges via Sean Kerner's analytics team. We've
talked about a couple of these guys. One we haven't
talked about is Peyton totally under five and a half
strikeouts plus one oh five. That's an eighteen point one
(21:56):
percent edge according to Action Pro as of when I
grabbed these. Our colleague Derek Cardy is on the totally
fade train today. He's on his under an out recorded,
which I think is like seventeen and a half. Really
interesting Red Sox trade the other day, getting rid of
one of their two big big arms, and Connolly Early
sending him for Curtis Mead. They're hanging on to Totally,
(22:17):
Obviously they think more of Totally than they do Early.
Totally has had more success this season than Early, but
pro thinks that he's a little overvalued today in Sacramento.
I'm not sure what the effect pitching in Sacramento has
on pitchers, you know, comparable to Cours or whatever, but
maybe the books are valuing Totally a little bit too
(22:38):
highly today. Other two guys we've talked about already Max
Schurezer under three and a half strikeouts, that's minus one
sixty sixteen point three percent edge there, don't really need
to go into that anymore. Talked at length about reasons
to fade Sureser today, and then Martin Perez going with
the over there in the game. So under three and
a half strikeouts for re at plus one ten, that's
(23:01):
a sixteen point two percent edge, So trio of strikeout unders.
And then our top homer projections, or at least three
of our top homer projections that I looked at. Were
you henney O Suarez in Red's Guardians in Cincinnati today,
Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run at plus four hundred.
Love that one in particular going against Noah Schultz, who's
(23:24):
really struggled, and gold Schmidt against the lefty is usually
something that you on a target, so getting him at
plus four hundred seems like a good good shot. And
then you talked about David Peterson to Matthew Libertor not
a super exciting pitching matchup in Saint Louis, and pro
likes Saya Suzuki to go deep in that one at
(23:44):
plus four hundred. It's actually got a couple of cubs
up there, Michael Bush, who I stayed away from lefty
lefty against Libertor. And then Pete crow Armstrong also lefty lefty.
But Pete crow Armstrong can obviously hit a home run
against anyone right now, so those are yes, great segue.
Pete crow Armstrong obviously a chance to homer tonight in
Saint Louis. So that's going to do it for our
(24:05):
Monday bets. Uh, If you're just interested in the Monday bets,
that's the end of the pod for you. But if
you want to stick around for some futures talk, we're
going to do that for just a few minutes here,
because Sean, you have some thoughts here. There's been some
interesting movement in a couple of these awards markets. The
first one we want to talk about is the aforementioned
NL MVP race. Sho Hey Otani no longer pitching for
(24:27):
the Dodgers, no timetable for when he's going to return
to pitching for the Dodgers. That significantly impacts his MVP odds.
I'm looking at DraftKings right now, he's still minus two
twenty to win NL MVP. You can actually bet him
versus the field at minus two forty five versus plus
one eighty five for any other player. That's not as
interesting right now, because according to the odds, this has
(24:48):
essentially become a two person race of Otani against Pete
Crow Armstrong Otani again minus two twenty PCA plus one ninety.
If you're looking at the war leader boards, it gets
a lot more in when you factor in PCA's elite
Elite Elite center field defense with what he's doing at
the plate right now and Otani coming off the mound
(25:10):
and also having a pedestrian for him season at the
plate opens this wide. So Sean, what are your thoughts
here on this race? Are you seeing value on PCA
or anyone else or just something you're keeping an eye
on here with Otani off the mound.
Speaker 4 (25:27):
So if Otani was named Jim Smith and we didn't
have like two straight years of him winning vps and
all the media love for him, et cetera, this is
an obvious PCA bit obvious pc is already a win
ahead and winsbub replacement both b War and f War,
and he projects to finish I believe a win and
(25:47):
a half above at the end of the season, and
that's assuming Otani still pitches a little bit. I think
Otani I want to I want to just pull Atani's
pitching projections because I want to see how much of
his pitching war is still baked in projection still. So
Atani making five starts, I don't see that happening. I
think he makes two, maybe.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
Right to the end of the season to get ready
for October. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (26:08):
Yeah, do you see him throwing thirty more innings. No, no,
so Otani is a hitter. The rest of the way
projects for about two war at best. I'll get into
that in a moment. PCA is a hitter. The rest
of the way projects for the same about the same
two point two for both. That's hitting in defense or
(26:29):
PCA just hitting for Otani. But again, PCAs already went
ahead in both F war and B War. Where's Otani
gonna make up that room if he's not pitching, If
he's not pitching more than two starts. So I do
think the projections right now are baking in or the
projections are certainly baking in Otani pitching the rest of
the way. The shutdown from the bullpen session thing yesterday,
I think he's coming back in September and just like
(26:51):
making one start, maybe two starts to get himself right
for the playoffs, and that's it, and that's best case scenario.
Speaker 2 (26:58):
Now.
Speaker 4 (26:58):
Otani at the plate is been the unders discuss thing.
Obviously like a disappointing season for him this year. Well,
he's hurt right now, and it's not like the injury
has not affected his hitting performance. In July, Otani is
an eighty two w RSC plus. He's hitting two twenty
in July. He's hurt, like he's very clearly hurt, and
(27:22):
it is affected not only obviously his ability to throw
the baseball, but his ability to hit the baseball. He's
hitting two twenty four with a two seventy seven opp
and a four to thirty four slug in July as
an eighty two w RSC plus. That's a two ninety wOBA.
He does have a three to sixty expected WHOBA. So
he has drastically underperformed his expected results this month, but
(27:43):
all the same PCAs ahead. PCA projects the same as
Otani the rest of the way, if not better, considering
Otani is not probably playing up to his projections. I
mean these projections say Otani hits seventeen homers the rest
of the way. If you think Otani's hitting seventeen homers
on us the way, So right now, I make PCA
(28:05):
about plus one sixty for NL MVP, I make Otani
minus one twenty. You can get PCA believe as highest
plus two forty yesterday. I know you said he was
down closer to plus one ninety today. The last number
I had in here that uploaded was plus two forty,
so that's obviously a much bigger edge. But yeah, PCA
down to plus one eighty looks like pretty definitively a
(28:27):
bet right now. Again, I have them finishing half a
win within one another O twenty eight five PCA at nine.
I think right now the gap is a win, and
I think it's only going to grow if anything. I
think Otani can maybe keep it even, but I think
it's going to grow if anything. So PCA would be
the bet right now for NL Saiyung. I regret we
discussed this at the All Star break. I regret not
(28:48):
check on the field at nine to one, I believe
or whatever it was against Atani when they're already indications
that he was maybe not going to pitch that much
from that point forward. So yeah, I think PCA has
to be the bet. My reservation, just or purely it's Otani.
He's going to get a boost regardless if it's close,
but beyond that, I think it's pretty clearly PCA right now.
Speaker 3 (29:11):
Yeah, he's a guy who voter fatigue doesn't seem to
be a thing for him, if any of the opposite. Yeah,
the other interesting thing about PCA is that you know,
We've seen his bat absolutely go in the tank in
the past. In the second half of last year, it
absolutely went in the tank. First month or two of
this year, it was pretty heavily in the tank, yep.
(29:31):
But if you're looking at war totals, which a lot
of MVP voters you know, take as gospel or factored
in more than anything else, the defense is still going
to be prop up his war, even if he hits
in August and September more like he did in April
than he did in June and July.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
It's also I should mention too, you know.
Speaker 4 (29:53):
We obviously the defense factors in humongously to his total.
He and Andy Paeas are the two best defensive centerfielder
this year's two best defenders arguably this year by Sabers
Defensive Index. So he's also probably gonna win the Platinum Glove. Yeah,
that's gonna help as well.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
Very interesting stuff, you know, never thought we'd see. I'm
I was gonna say the only reason Otani's ever gonna
not win it is if he gets hurt. But I
guess he has gotten hurt. Oh yeah, a little bit.
But he's won MVPs in seasons where he didn't pitch
just just a couple of years ago. So interesting stuff
there in the MVP race. One other race we wanted
(30:32):
to touch on very briefly is nlsay Young. I can't
remember if we talked about this on a pod already
or just on the side. Jacob Mezowski is still sitting
at minus three hundred. Brewers are obviously being very very
cautious with his workload down the stretch. Two starts ago,
only through sixty five pitches in four innings. Last start
he went in the eighties in five innings, Still struck
(30:54):
out twelve, Still absolutely dominating every time he gets on
the mound. But it's going to be really really interesting,
you know, if we get toward the end of the season.
Even if Misowski keeps dominating, his innings number it's really low.
He barely clears the one sixty two to be qualified
for the ERA title. You have Zach Wheeler taking over
(31:16):
his second favorite now at DraftKings at plus seven to fifty,
right ahead of his teammate Christopher Sanchez at plus eight fifty.
Christopher Sanchez, it's taking a little dip last couple starts
is ERA. He's gotten dinged up a little bit, Chris
Sale nine to one. And then the guy I keep
staring at, the guy who I think might be the
best pitcher in the National League right now, Chase Burns
twenty to one pitching tonight for the Reds. I believe
(31:40):
he's sitting at four point six reference War, he's also
twelve to one. For as much as wins and losses
still matter to maybe a handful of voters. So I
don't know. You know, I've mentioned Burns as someone I
want to pull the trigger on a couple times. You've
mentioned schemes. Who's sitting at forty to one just doesn't
seem to be He's kind of running out of time
(32:02):
to get his numbers back to where to where they
were when he won it last year. Burns is the
guy for me. Wheeler, we talked about the narrative he's
never won it. This is toward the end of his career.
I think last year will probably be the last season
of his career, if he's to be believed about retiring
after his current contract comes to an end. Do you
(32:22):
have any thoughts here on essentially Miserowski versus the field
and if you like the field, who between Wheeler Sancha
sale Burns Yamamoto didn't mention it twenty eight to one,
and then Schemes.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
Yeah, I still have Sancha's second.
Speaker 4 (32:38):
But obviously he's just like not nearly as effective of
late as he was in the first half. And I
don't think he's going to pitch up to the level
where he pitched in the first half. I only make
Miserowski plus one sixty, but that's because the war totals
are going to be so low. The other thing that
you got to mention, though, is the fact that he's
nineteen strikeouts ahead of the next closest guy right now,
(33:01):
and in the National League, I think the gap is
even wider. So he's been so efficient. In the other
day again, he threw eighty pitches but struck out twelve
and five innings. Yes, the Brewers are going to manage
his workload down the stretch here a little bit. I
think as long as he gets to one hundred and
fifty innings, as long as his ERA is sub two
(33:22):
and he has the strikeout lead in the National League,
if not all of baseball, he's going to win it.
I think the strikeout aspect of it, the counting having
it like, despite the innings potentially being lower, being the
counting stat leader or among one of the counting stat leaders,
especially in strikeouts, is a big boost. That is something
(33:43):
that I've looked into in terms of quantifying side grace.
It does factor into my calculus. It's not just innings.
The total strikeouts really does matter quite a bit too.
So I think that's going to save him, provided he
does not get lit up one or two times down
the stretch here and that ear ends up inflating north
of two worth mentioning he's given up eight unearned runs
(34:05):
this year. He should have closer to two ERA as
Shad cam Schlitler for that reason, but he's gotten away
with some friendly home scorekeeping. I believe there was a
start where there was a two out error and then
he gave up four runs after that, and none of
them ended up counting against his tally. So been a
little bit unfortunate or been a little bit fortunate to
maintain that lower array, But all the same, he's on
(34:26):
a start to start base has been maybe the highest
rated I've ever made a starting pitcher in my model, Like,
I'm raiding this guy at a sub two weighted fit
projection I think that Gram was the only other person
who ever approached that Pete de Gram got there. Miserowski's unbelievable,
but yeah, it's purely about innings and efficiency the rest
of the way, I have a Sanchez ticket. I'm not
(34:46):
going to bet into this market otherwise, but that's basically
how I see it. As long as the strikeouts are
near the lead or on the lead, Misserowski's probably still
going to be the guy I would take a shot
with PCA. I really would, and I'm going to consider
doing it personally. I think among the main awards markets,
he's my most interesting bet, in my most actionable bet
(35:08):
right now. McGonagall, you and I discussed before we jumped
on the pod. I make him about minus three thirty.
You can get him as high as minus or low
as minus two eighty. I think McGonagall is a plus
ev bet right now. Murakami would really need to hit
like fifteen homers the rest of the way to get
back in the conversation.
Speaker 2 (35:27):
And then in the NL.
Speaker 4 (35:28):
I know salth Stewart is picking up some steam because
this offensive numbers are comparable to JJ wetherhol jj Weatherhold,
though is the best or second best defensive second basement
in baseball. South Stewart is a average to below average
defensive first baseman, and you need to understand that the
average production stats for second base are way different than
(35:50):
the average production stats for first base, and as a result,
that's why the first baseman gets docked so much in
terms of.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
The positional adjustment for war. So I see people posting this.
Speaker 4 (35:59):
Side by side of like the e ref stats for
weather Holt and South Stewart and being like.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
How's weather Holt. I'm so big he's trailing in all
these categories. Yeah, he's the best defender in baseball.
Speaker 4 (36:09):
Like that adds all of all of South Stuart's offensive
contributions are basically equivalent to what JJ Weatherholt does defensively
and on the base pass, So worth noting that would
not be firing or not telling the crowd on South
Stewart at these long odds, I still think Nolan McLain
is the closest contender in terms of taking down weather Holp.
But I think the two rookies who were the favorites
(36:30):
we have tickets on weather Holt McGonagall. I think they're
both gonna end up winning the awards. But My biggest
favorite right now, as I said to you and all
the awards markets, is Yorton. I think you'redon minus three
forty with Bobby Wick going down, So I think PCA.
You know, like I said, it's significantly closer to Otani
than anybody in the al. Is the Jordon that Bobby
win injury was crucial for Yorton's chances. As long as
(36:51):
Jordon doesn't get hurt, should be his award to lose.
Speaker 3 (36:55):
Yeah, real quick, I know we need to get out
of here, but the salth Stewart thing is absurd to me. Uh,
You've got a first baseman with a one sixteen ops
plus sixteen percent above average offensive first baseman weather holds
one eleven. You're telling me that because Sal Stewart has
five points of ops plus that he should win the
(37:19):
SAYA or the Rookie of the Year over a guy
who is maybe slightly worse offensively and Eam's better defensively.
That's one of the funnies. And I love Sal Stewart,
Don't get me wrong. I love Sal Stewart, but he
is a slightly above average offensive first baseman. You've got
(37:40):
a if you're gonna have a first baseman who offers
no defensive utility.
Speaker 1 (37:44):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (37:45):
And you want to win Rookie of the Year, you've
got to have like a one forty ops plus. You know,
one fifty ops plus. He's at one sixteen. Let's calm
down with our South Stewart.
Speaker 4 (37:54):
Or anybodys you to do it, Nick Kurtz did last year.
But you got to be better than slightly above average.
Speaker 3 (37:59):
Exactly, exactly good stuff, though. Main headline main takeaway from
this little mini future segment is p c A for
n L m VP. Never thought I think today? Yeah, yeah,
all right, that's gonna do it for today's episode to
Payoff Pitch. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you'd
like to tell some of the bests from today's episode,
look for the quick slip links in the episode description.
(38:20):
Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network app. Also,
please leave us a five star rating and review wherever
you listen to the podcast. We will be back tomorrow,
same time, same place, another episode of Payoff Pitch for
shan Zarella. I'm Collin Wickards. Thanks again for listening Payoff
Pitch Action Networks MLV Betting podcast. Good luck with all
your bests.
Speaker 2 (38:48):
Heard this crowd on his street. What a trip, No
watcha
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