August 11, 2026 • 36 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch ,Sean Zerillo and Grant Neiffer team up to break down the Tuesday's MLB slate. The crew dives into sides, totals and dingers targeting two washed pitchers. The guys give out their most confident plays and highlight where they’re finding the most value across the board. Tune in to hear their top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Check out the video version of today's show on Action Network YouTube page for a sneak peak. Rate, review and subscribe to the show wherever you watch or listen so you don't miss us every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Frying akball, no crying, and this game is underway. In
the lineup, it is spring stoppering Josh the bit outside.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Castianos.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
It will be a home run.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
And look to sum up you talk about a roll
at the dice. This is it. Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch. Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Tuesday, August eleventh. I'm Collin Wichard, joined as
usual by Action Network Senior MLB analyst Sean Zarrillo, as
well as the king of the home run prop Grant
me for of scores and ods to break down this
(00:54):
busy Tuesday MLB slate full lady games all under the life.
We got looks like six bets from Sean. We got
five dingers from Grant, so we're gonna jump right into it.
See what these guys are betting for tonight's slate. Quick
reminder though, before we get started that we will have.
(01:17):
It is Tuesday, and just as we do every Tuesday,
we'll have MLB Prop Drop live coming up later today
one pm Eastern, this very same place. If you're watching
live on YouTube, if you're not live on YouTube one
pm Eastern, I'll be on with two of the top
prop masters in the game, Sean Kerner and Derek Cardi.
(01:38):
They'll each be giving out their three favorite props from
tonight's late so be sure to tune into that if
you are able. All right, let's jump into our Tuesday
best bets. Sean, I'm gonna go to you first. Got
it's a very total, total centric day for you today.
The first one we're gonna go to is Cubs Nationals
(01:58):
in DC. Showed to immen Naga against Jake Irvin what
he got for us?
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Yeah, five sides and one total yesterday, six totals that
I have one team total among those, so kind of
one side and five totals. But first under on the
board Cubs and Nationals under nine. I bet that at
minus one oh five. I like it to about minus
one twenty. That is roughly where it's gone to. So
there's not a ton of room left in this line.
Both teams off yesterday got their bullpens arrest. Nationals should
(02:25):
be starting Jake Irvian tonight. That's what the beat writers
have said. They have not officially announced it on MLB
Dot com but always have to look at the wind
when showed tim Innaugua is starting. I believe our bet
Labs account posted a trend before his last start, or
maybe two starts back when he was at Rigally, you know,
showed his performance basically just tracks with the wind direction.
(02:46):
When the wind wind's blowing out, the overs hit and
he gets hit. When the wind is blowing in or neutral,
he's fine and pitches well, and he's outperformed his projections
this season. All of his expected indicators sitting closer to
three point seven projections still have him north of afore
e a projection I move him closer to that three
point seven number. Obviously, do not love Jake Irvin nor
(03:08):
the Nationals bullpen. But without James Wooden there, this offense
projects about a third of a run worse. I know
they've still been hitting even without him, but that is
what he's worth essentially to their team total. In their line,
he's worth about a third of a run four tenths
of a run, So without him in there, this goes
from an above average offense to a below average offense
on paper. For me, also, Curtis Mead no longer there anymore,
(03:30):
so you know, this lineup is not the same as
it's been since the beginning of the ear of Luis
cars Sier Junior no longer there anymore. So you know
all of that to say they've been scoring runs since
the tradeline deadline. I do not project them nearly at
the same level as I did pre schet a deadline.
I have this total about eight point four. Again, take
under nine to about minus one twenty between the Cubs
and Nuts.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Love a little non correlated SGP when you two are
on the show together. So let's do exactly that with
Grant's first home run. Bet sean betting on low scoring game.
But there's still room for a few runs in this game.
So Grant, what do you got for a homer in
this game?
Speaker 1 (04:08):
Yeah, I'm targeting Jake Irban a little bit. P Crow Armstrong.
Speaker 4 (04:12):
You can find him anywhere from plus three thirty to
plus three forty. It's been bouncing right around that number
all morning. But I like it either. I have the
Trurods closer like plus two seventy. The spot here is
a good one. Irvin has been better this season a's
pressing power. Last season, however, he was just a complete
and uttered gas can for lefty power, giving up over
(04:32):
at two home run per nine due for some negative
regressions so far this season grades out as a fantastic
matchup for lefty power.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
The weather over in Chicago or not Chicago, Washington.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
Rather is pretty solid eighty five degrees during game time,
good humanity with just crossing to the right. So it's
just a good spot. He's a great home run hitter,
and Irving, I think is getting a little bit too
overvalued this season just because of how he's played.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
But he's due for some regression my model. So I
really like the spot for PCA.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
PCA pulling ahead of Otani in terms of odds, but
also he's now one point five war clear in terms
of fangrafts. War So become the actual MVP favorite. It
was a pick him for a little while, but now
he's he's pulled through about minus one twenty and Otani
finally getting to plus money.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
It's fun to see.
Speaker 4 (05:23):
Like I thought Otani would just be a lot this
year with especially considering how well he's pitched, but PCA
coming in playing great defense and just playing great baseball.
It's it's it's nice to have this race actually be exciting,
kind of like it was with the Al last year.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Yeah, PCA's defensive value definitely doing a lot for that
war total. And you know, Otani having a down year
by his standards offensively, the fact that he only has
twenty five homers right now or whatever it is and
is a little bit surprising to PCA right there with him.
We've talked about a lot about that future's race sean.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Defense members so much. I mean, you know, if you
tailed me on the Royals first five yesterday, Bobby Witt
got that home for us by himself. Bobby Witt made
like four or five defensive plays in that first five
innings alone that saved several runs, a double play that
he got too deep in the hole that took away
two outs, that prevented a Bas's loaded no out situation.
So PCA's defensive impact is massive. He is the best
defensive rated player in my model, Bobby Witt. It is
(06:22):
not too far behind him, but he does have a
massive impact on the game. And you know, I would
argue at this point he saved more runs as a
defender than Otani has saved relative to the average pitcher.
So he's putting up historic defensive numbers in addition to
having a nine to fifty plus ops just an incredible
year for PCI.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
Bobby Witt also created or on virtually by himself in
the first inning of that game. Yeah, he beat beat
out a double play ball to keep the ending alive,
stole second, came home on a single there for that
first Royals run. So very impressive stuff. By the way,
for those interested in this little non correlated SGP under
nine PCA home run DraftKings nine to one, so might
(07:02):
be throwing a little coin on that tonight as well.
Let's move on to our next game of the day. Sean,
you are going to Mets Braves. Mets first five came
through force last night. They made a sweat a little bit.
Who was it hit a first inning grand slam. We're
(07:23):
feeling bady that baty hit a first inning grand slam.
Was feeling really good about that. I was on that
as well. And then the fourth, fifth inning, the Braves
start chipping away, chipping away. The Mets have a guy
on the mound in the fifth inning, who would I
don't think it was his major league debut, but he's
one of the guys they just they just called up
and I was like, you got to seven to four,
It got to seven to five. I'm like, please just
(07:43):
get through this fifth inning. They did, Thankfully they got
home for US tonight's game. We have Nolan McLain on
the mound against Martin Perez, who keeps doing it for
the Braves somehow, hopefully for not that much longer though.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Yeah, So yesterday, the alternative I recommend it to the
first five money was the Mets team total over three
and a half. You don't have to sweat that one
very long at all. Just about six hitters. That's what
I'm going back to tonight. I show a bigger etch here
on the team total today than I do on the
Mets money line. You could play the Mets fall game
money line. It's got down to about plus one twenty.
I make it closer to even money. With McLain going
against Martin Perez. I'd take it down to about plus
(08:19):
one ten.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
But I show a.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Bigger edge on their team total over three and a half.
I like that up to about minus one fifty. I
took it at minus one thirty two this morning kind
of went through the Mets line up yesterday. The fact
that they are sort of all clicking together right now,
or at least most of them are clicking relative to
how they've hit for a large part of the year.
They project pretty solidly against lefties. Five hitters project for
(08:40):
better than a one to ten wor rec plus Jacob
Young the biggest hole in that lineup against left handed pitching.
See if they end up platuning him tonight. But I
make the Mets or have the Mets team total around
four point four or five runs, so nearly a run
above the three and a half team total, but factoring
in the juice, I only like it up to about
minus one fifty. But that said, there's still a nice
(09:01):
sizable edge compared to the market. I saw the best
or the worst available prize this morning was minus one
forty five, and largely the market was sitting around minus
one thirty five, So Mets team total over three and
a half up to minus one forty five or minus
one fifty. Rather, if you can only find the four
and a half, I would take the four and a
half at about plus one ten if that's the only option,
(09:25):
but definitely prefer getting at three and a half with
the game total sitting at eight and a half. Martin
Pees just been outperforming his underlying indicators by about a
full run this year. They got to Brace Elder yesterday.
Hopefully they're able to get to Martin Perez today because
he just can't keep doing this. He cannot keep doing
his eighty seven stuff plus twenty percent nineteen percent strikeout rate,
a twenty two percent with rate is three fourteen earrays mirage.
(09:49):
He should be closer to four and a half, especially
as he nears age forty, So fading the Martin Perez
train today. Hopefully the Mets offense keep going.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
For us from one New York to Ta to another
for Grant's next Dinger pick. Actually, I was looking at
Sean your Bartolo tool this morning. This isn't one of
your official plays for the show, but I saw you
had an edge on the first five over here in
a Mariner's Yankees, and Grant is hoping for some runs
as well in the dinger department with a Yankees hitter today.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (10:20):
No, I really like the lefties for the Yankees, but
specifically Trent Grisham at plus three forty six is too high.
Wu has been very good this year at pressing lefty
power better this year at s pressing lefty power, sitting
at one point one to three home run per nine,
but he has larger than average splits due for some
negative regression versus lefties. Obviously plays in a pitcher friendly ballpark.
(10:44):
And now he's over in New York to day and
the weather it's it's decently hot, it's pretty humid, eighty
four degrees, good humidity, wind blowing out about five miles
an hour. And we note that Yankee Stadium is one
of the best ballparks in the league for lefty power.
So you have a guy with above average splitz going
against the lefty who's due for some positive aggression in
(11:06):
Trent Grisham. And the spot here is just overall a
very good one, and the price doesn't fully reflect that
on Grisham. It flects a little bit more on guys
like Garcia and Rice, but Grisham's price is a bitting
fled maybe because of his play this year. I had
his true odds rider or under plus three hundred here,
so you get some really solid value going up against
(11:26):
Food to day.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
And Grisham just wanted to comment on the over I'm
just gonna wait for umpires there Colin, i'd be shown edge.
As you said on the first five over, I make
that about four point seventy five, you can get it
over four. I also make the full game total about
eight point five. You can get over eight. Just want
umpires before I end up locking in anything there. But
to Grant's point, Brian Wu not only larger than average splitz,
maybe the worst home road splits, you know, differential of
(11:49):
anybody in baseball, at least this year in twenty twenty six,
he's rocking a three eighteen expected fit at home, four
to twenty on the road, but a nine percent strike
out my walk right difference twenty five percent at home,
fifteen percent on the road. So Brian Wu just much
more success at home. I think, you know the batter's
eye something with like where he releases his fastball from
(12:10):
tends to boost his ability and his general profile at
home doesn't affect all the Maritors pitchers in the same
Love and Gilbert pretty much neutral home road, but Miller
Brian Wu pretty big drastic home road splits. So going
to take a look at the over there. As you
guys mentioned, definitely like will a lot rest when he's
pitching away from team mobile.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
If Sean logs a bet on that total, you will
find it in the Action App. If Grant logs any
more Homer bets so he doesn't give out on today's show,
he will log those in the Action App. And that
is a good reminder that if you sign up for
Action Pro, you can get real time pick alerts from
experts like Sean Grant, Derek Cardy on our entire Action
(12:50):
Network team. Plus you can access our pro prop projections
powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team. I
have to do is go to Actionnetwork dot com slash
and get twenty dollars off the annual price with the
promo code Pod twenty. So don't miss out on the
best bets at the best prices, and don't miss out
on real time pick alerts anytime these guys log bets
(13:11):
in the app. Well, you have to just go to
actionek dot com slash pro use promo code Pod twenty. Again,
that's twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro. All right,
next total for you, Zurillo. Wow, I don't know how
if we want to talk about this play in the
Red Sox Blue Jays last night. If you guys saw this,
(13:33):
this double play where they still allow a run to score.
One of the most bizarre plays I saw fifteen minute delay.
Just to recap it a little bit. The Red Sox
had first and third with one out flyball to center field.
Both runners took off immediately thinking there was two outs
because the scoreboard said there was two outs. Centerfielder catches
(13:56):
the ball, throws it in. They throw it to first,
get the double play inning over again. The guy from
third took off immediately crossed home plate. They ruled that
the run counted because the umpires I guess screwed up
and said he tagged up, and because they said that
Toronto needed to appeal to third that he left early
(14:20):
and they didn't do that. So it was a inning
ending double play, but also a sacrifice fly and the
run counted. One of the most bizarre things I've ever
seen in my entire life. The broadcasters were flabbergasts. Chris Guccioni,
trying to explain it after talking to New York for
fifteen minutes, is basically just like, so, this is what happened,
this is the score. Now we're moving on absolute madness.
(14:45):
Thankfully it didn't I mean it didn't cost the Blue
Chase the game that would have been something. But tonight's
Red Sox Blue Jays game is Patrick Sandoval against one
of the cy young favorites, Dylan Cease, and we'll hope
for no Shenanigans in the run scoring department tonight Sean Yeah.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Hopefully visa young favorite Dylan Cease carrying that nice long
shot ticket on both he and Jurdn Alvarez from the preseason.
The only feels like the only coold calls have had
this year, the long shot that's on those two guys.
But Cease has been trending up Schlitler trending down just
a little bit, seas I believe, has overtaken the lead
in terms of the odds board. That change up that
the Blue Jays of Adam throwing this year one to
(15:25):
ninety four expected will but in a fifty three percent
with rate. It was the missing ingredient to tie the
room together. It was the rug that tied the room
together for his entire arsenal. And now he's got the slider,
which remains a lead alongside the change up, which is
performing even better than the slider. Is had a complete
game shutout against these Red Sox back on July twenty fifth. Obviously,
(15:46):
the Red Sox ended up surging soon after. The ball
percentage is the one thing you worry about with Cese.
You know, he can have innings and he kind of
starts where he's wild and teams are patient against him
and try to wait him out, make him throw pitches
in his own and you just can't do that. He's
had those issues throughout his career. You know, there's going
to be ten starts here where you guys don't have
their command a third of their starts, they're not going
(16:07):
to have their best stuff. Maybe he doesn't have it tonight,
and on those nights he can be very frustrating to watch,
but he largely has avoided those issues this year. He's
only done it one or two times as opposed to
ten times like you would expect for a pitcher throughout
the year. So Cease has been phenomenal. He's been efficient.
Patrick Sandoval is the side of the matchup that you'd
be a little bit more concerned about. He's carrying a
(16:28):
one oh six stuff plus rating coming back off of injury,
and he's priged pretty well along with it. Fourteen percent
strikeout minus walk rate is above the major league gaverage
hasn't really gotten barreled up despite allowing a decent number
of fly balls ADLEI Rutchman coming back for the Red
Sox tonight a little bit better of a defender behind
the plate for them, because I do not like Connor
(16:48):
Wong at all. He rates among my worst defensive catchers.
I forgot who the Red Sox were playing along with
Wang behind the dish while Ruschman was out. But Rutchmand
a good hitter, but projects is a better defender than
he is a good hitter, so that actually helps keep
the team total and the game total under a little
bit more. I make this total about six point seven.
I'd bet under seven and a half to minus one thirty,
(17:09):
or I'd take under seven to minus one oh five.
Between the Jays and the Red Sox, two excellent defensive
teams as well. We don't really talk about that a ton,
but these teams, who both rate extremely highly in my model,
neither team has major power. These both rate is very
good contact teams, but not massive power teams for me.
(17:29):
So hopefully a bunch of balls in play that we're
getting hits stolen on either side, and then both pitchers
keep this one scoring. The main concern here on the
J side. Varland and Rodgers may both be out tonight
at the back end of their bullpen, and they believe
pitched the last two days, maybe two of the past
three days for each of them. So the Jay's bullpen
behind Cease is a little bit worrisome. But as long
(17:50):
as Hes is efficient, as long as he's not having
those starts where he's throwing a lot of pitches outside
of the zone, I do like this game total stay under.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
The Red Sox have my number one bullpen. Yeah, Rogers
and Barlin both pitched yesterday. Rogers has pitched last two
and three of the last four. Varlin's pitched two of
the last three and five of the last seven Red
Sox catching. By the way, Jake Rogers came over.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
Along with Ers.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
Rogers is a good defender, so that's that's too big
defensive upgrades for them.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
But Connor Wong got a little banged up last night too,
so I wouldn't be surprised to see Rogers behind the
plate tonight.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
I was just looking at the al You know, Pennons,
we're going to talk about the rais game here in
a little bit. It's hard not to like the Red Sox.
The way they've tried it, the way their offense is performed.
I just worried that they've played their best ball already.
I actually want to dig into like has a team
played their best ball?
Speaker 1 (18:43):
You know?
Speaker 3 (18:44):
Is that a thing? Like in terms of peaking too early?
Is that for playoffs? You know? Do teams peak too early?
Do teams who play Do teams who go on these
long winning streaks like not find it again for October?
Or is that an indicator that they're able to put
together a long winning shreaks in October? So I want
to go through history. I want to look at, you know,
past team performances, past teams whore ripped off streaks like that,
(19:05):
to see how they've actually performed, because that's something that
interests me. I was never in love with this roster,
but I do love the upgrades they've made, and like
the way they're gelling, and I like the way their
offense is patient and takes a lot of pitches and
seems to have a philosophy. So yeah, al remains wide
open and wind out.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
The Red Sox.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
One last quick note before we move on al Cy
Young race. See still a hair behind Schlitzler on the
odds market DraftKings. Schlitler minus won twenty five cease even
money at the moment. So that is a real toss
up race as we come down the stretch.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
Yeah, I make actually I make Schlitler slight favorite over him.
Mab Schlitler plus one twenty five cease at plus one
seventy five. Gavin Williams the one edge bet popping up.
He's really been surging of Blake. Gave up a couple
of runs in his last start, but he ripped off
kind of that Blake Snell like stretch where he struck
out ten plus batters in every game. And Yep, when
I bet Snell at sixty to one or whatever it
(20:01):
was a couple of years ago for Cy Young, I
was just like, if he keeps this going, he's gonna
win it. That's kind of how I feel about Gavin Williams.
Davi Milliams keeps ripping off ten strikeout performances over his
next seven starts, he may get himself in the race
and win it.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
So definitely, all right, let's get another dinger in here
from Grant. We're going to Brewers Padres in San Diego.
Targeting a Brewers hitter here against can never argue with
targeting a hitter against Walker Bueler on the home tonight.
Speaker 4 (20:28):
Yeah, well, I mean you can say that earlier on
this season, but he was He's a reverse splits pitcher
that I was waiting for regression all the way through May,
all the way through June, and then finally in July
it started happening. And since the beginning of July he
just hasn't really been the same, been giving up a
good amount of bombs in the last month and a half,
(20:49):
and now his overall numbers on the season versus the
Rioty sitting at one point five to six, which is
well above average. That number is significantly higher in the
last month and a half. And Cherio has been fantastic
this season. I'm really having a bit of a breakout season.
All the underlying numbers are good, just a very solid
power hitter, barrel rates sitting up in the teams low
(21:10):
teams mid teens.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
So Cheerio. We're getting him.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
At plus five to twenty five today, like getting him
in a plus spot to potentially well above average spot
at plus five twenty five is just absolutely silly to me.
The guy has a ton of power you can get,
Like I think the lowest it's out there is probably
around plus four to sixty. I would still take it
at that. I have this over one hundred points lower
(21:37):
for his true odds, So Cheerio at plus five to
twenty five is massive value.
Speaker 3 (21:41):
Yeah, we don't think of Jackson Cheerio is like a
power guy. In my tool, I have him with an
a power grade that's pulling in a bunch of different
stackass metrics to independently measure that out. He's ninety percent
time on barrel rate, ninety first and average exit philosophy. He's,
you know, a guy you consider more of like a
five tool power speed mix, but you wouldn't expect he's
like one of the best power guys in the bigs.
(22:01):
Really like that play from Granteday, I think Jackson Turio's
power is underrated and he's gonna start creeping closer to
that thirty home run mark. He's at seventeen this year,
but I think by next year he's only twenty two
years old. I think he's going to start pushing towards
that thirty thirty five home run Mark.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
There's a little fun fact out there that I just
saw where he is about to reach. He's going to
try to reach sixty home runs, fifty stolen bases in
two hundred RBI before his twenty third birthday. Wow. Only
other guys to do that in history. Orlando sepaida Caesar
Sedanio and Andrew Jones. So pretty good company there for Cheerio.
(22:38):
All right, next two games.
Speaker 1 (22:39):
Love this.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
Next two games. Sean is on a total and Grant
is on a homer from both of these games. So
we'll go Sean first. In Orioles twins, Brandon Young against
Bailey Ober.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Yeah, I make this total closer to ten. I took
nine at minus one twenty last night. I like it
up to nine and a half at minus one ten.
Bailey O, the gentle Giant is not getting a glow up,
not adding ten miles an hour to his fastball velocity.
He's still throwing in the upper eighties to mid eighties,
and he's due to get crushed at some point. Hopefully
(23:12):
that point is tonight. Both of these starting pitchers just project,
you know, significantly, not significantly below average, but certainly quantifiably
below average. For me, I just want to see where
I have either ranked. I have Over at one seventy eight.
I have Brandon Young at one twenty three. I'm a
little bit higher in Brandon Young, but his last couple
starts is pitched closer to expectations given runs or three homers,
(23:35):
hasn't gotten the strikeouts as efficiently. This Twins lineup has
overachieved or overperformed relative to expectations for the entire year.
Don't rate either of these teams as strong defensively. Don't
like either bullpen, in particular the Orioles.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
Shit.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
I have a couple guys out tonight, Grant Wolfram, the
key guy among the two. Thunderbirk looks like he might
be out for the Twins. He's pitched really well of late.
So both pens a little bit short. Don't like either starter.
Weather seems positive for offense, and both offenses project average
or better. Make this total again about ten, and I
(24:15):
like the over nine and a half to minus one
time between the Orioles and the Twins.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
If the last couple of years, if I told you
Grant had a homer pick in the Mets game, you
would know who I was talking about. And now I'm
telling you he has a homer pick in the Orioles game,
so you can probably guess where he's going.
Speaker 4 (24:32):
Yep, it's good, old faithful, big meat. Pete had a
little bit down season, but the spot here is a
good one. Over has been pretty solid at limiting power
to rieties this year. Not a huge sample size, That's
why I'm not giving too much validity into it. Thirty
three percent flyball rate this year to rietis in small
sample size. Career rates a right around fifty, so doesn't
(24:57):
really make sense. In his career, he's been reverse slits
when it comes to power and been a well above
average power matchups, being at one point five to six
home runs for nine, so he's just kind of gotten
lucky this year. He's due for some regression. Sean's waiting
for it. I'm waiting for it, and I think today
could be the day at least against Alonzo where that
ends up happening here.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
So I've been great.
Speaker 4 (25:18):
I as a well above average matchup for variety power.
The weather over in Minnesota decent for heading temperatures in
the mid eighties heighth or good humidity, wind blowing out slightly,
so overall just a plus matchup that they really aren't
grading it as a plus matchup because of how Over
has been so far this year versus rites, and the
(25:38):
regression is coming, and I think it's coming today, and
I think Alonso has a much better chance than the
odds imply of hitting a bomb.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
And then the other game that we compare an over
with a homer in is in Sacramento. Raise A's Nick
Martinez against Mason Barnett. And another for you here, Sean.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
Yeah, I don't think any pitcher is over performing relative
to their underlying indicators more than Nick Martinez right now,
two sixty five era, everything says he should be closer
to a four or five type pitcher. Now, I've always
liked Nick Martinez more of the market. His numbers are
down relative to those prior years. He's just pitching better
or getting better results with a better defensive team behind him,
pitching in the drop. But again, two point sixty five
(26:24):
Eray expected fit of four point six, expected the Ray
of four point six, Sierra of four point eight, bot
Era three point six. So the pitching models like him
a little bit more than the underlying indicators do. But
again that expected RA number is a run higher than
the pitch modeling number, and even if you consider that
pitch modeling number to be his fair projection, it's still
(26:45):
a run higher than his actual era. So everything says
Nick Martinez should be substantially worse than he has been
to this point of the year. Even his most optimistic
fit projection is around three point nine, but the least
optimistic is around four point eight average four point four.
So Nick Martinez is due and has been due for
quite some time, to get hit at some point, hopefully
(27:06):
in Cetter Health Park tonight, which is outside of Corrs,
the best offensive venue in baseball. Hopefully it does come
against this A's offense, which I don't really love without
Nick Kurtz in there, but I do project this total
a ten point eight, so over ten and a half
up to even money would be the bet. Not a
fan of Mason Burnett or this A's bullpen either. Races
(27:28):
don't have a ton of power necessarily outside of Camonaro
to take advantage of this park fully, because you do
want fly ball hitters who can just let the ball
carry in the air here, you know, having guys like
Chandler Simpson or Richie Placios who are just kind of
looking to slash and put the ball in play is
not as exciting in this park, but is also a
bad defensive team. You know, they can give you extra
(27:49):
outs if you put the ball in play. Want to
come in briefly on Jacob Wilson in his defense, because
he just set error He just set a record for
number of games errorless at shortstop disagreement in terms of
the outs above average metrics and the defensive run saved
metrics For Jacob Wilson, I tend to trust the defensive
run save number, which is not only blending stack cast
(28:11):
data and range data, but also quantifying bad throws, you know,
like hand scorekeeping of individual things that are then plugged
into a model that rerate the defenders based upon things
they're doing that are, you know, taking poor routes to
the ball, bobbling things that lead to a runner getting
on base, that scored a hit, things like that that
(28:32):
don't really get noted in the box score. That is
what DRS is doing. That's what the people calculating DRS
are there implementing. Where OAA is a bit more just
straight stack cast equativeness. So I don't think Jacob Wilson
is a good defender. I know OA says he is,
I know he has that airless streak, but DRS says
he's been the second worst defensive shortstop in baseball over
(28:53):
the past few years, I believe, other than Zach Netto.
I'm not sure who was last behind it, but he's
like minus twenty nine year arrest since these debuted. So
just wanted to comment on that briefly. And you know
the availability of different public metrics and how you can
rate these players and finding ones that you're more comfortable with.
I've seen a lot of people posting the b ref
screenshot comparing Taylor Walls's war to Kylee Schwarber's war. Well,
(29:17):
there's a reason I don't use b ref war or
talk about brof work because I don't think it's a
good stat you know, you look at the Fangrass metrics
for that Taylor Taylor Walls is like a half win
player and Kylee Schwarber is like three wins above him.
I think fangrass war does a much better calculating and
fairly adjusting from one position to the next, especially for DHS.
I don't really use or site b ref war or
(29:39):
calculate it in terms of my endfcason player models. So
just wanted to note some differences as we talk about
Nick Martinez and big differences in stats versus projections, some
other differences in stats and projections and metrics out there,
and just evaluating what you're more comfortable with or finding
the data points that are most predictive.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
Sean is on the over here in A's rays. As
I mentioned Grant on a Homer here too. There are
very few more appealing hitter park matchups for Homer, this
guy in Sacramento. I was on him last night. I
came through late for us. I expected the odds to
be way lower than what they are. They're good enough
(30:21):
that Grant's on them, so why don't you fire away?
Speaker 3 (30:23):
Grant?
Speaker 4 (30:24):
Yeah, and the ads aren't terribly high, but they're still
high enough for me. I mean, you can find anywhere
from plus two forty all the way up to plus
two seventy nine where I got him, and I honestly
like it all the way down to two plus two
forty because the spot here is just great. I mean,
the ballpark upgrade going from the TRUP over here is
just massive. Obviously, John mentioned it one of the best
(30:46):
hitter ballparks in the league. The weather is great today,
tempts in the mid eighties, wind blowing out at eight
miles an hour, and one of the more win susceptible
ballparks in the league, decent humidity. Cam Narrow going out
against Barnette. Barnett has been hammered this season, just absolutely
crushed by power, and he is due for some positive regression.
Speaker 1 (31:07):
But you look at the underlying numbers.
Speaker 4 (31:09):
Yes, he's striking out right, he's at a big rate,
but fly ball rate close to fifty percent not what
you want in this park. Hard contact rate sitting at
fifty percent definitely not what you want in this park.
And camlan Arrow, we know how good he is, and
he's doing all these numbers while playing in the trough
this year. We were worried that, oh, last year might
have just been playing in a Mickey Mouse ballpark that
(31:30):
got him to do so well. But it's pretty clear
that now he's just got a ton of pop. I mean,
we all should have known it from just his swing
speed and the contact he was making, but it's very
clear that he's just one of the best power hitters
in the league. And this spot here is a well
above average one and we're still only getting plus two
seventy nine odds. Is just absolutely silly to me. I
(31:52):
don't like betting guys under plus three hundred that often,
but when you got a spot like this, in a
ballpark like this, with weather like this, you just don't
overthink it.
Speaker 2 (32:03):
I love this. I love that we have a couple
of overs from Sean and a couple of dingers from
Grant in the same game. If you were to parlay,
say Camonaro in the over or Alms in the over,
you're getting like four five to one. I'm gonna take
it a step further here, both overs, both homers, you're
getting about twenty seven to one. At DraftKings.
Speaker 1 (32:26):
That's gonna be.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
My my SGP, my unofficial show. SGP is a Orioles
Twins over raise A's over, Alonzo homer, camon Aro homer again,
about twenty seven to one out there. That's a fun one.
Speaker 3 (32:41):
All right, here's one home run back from the league lead.
He's at thirty four now, yes.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
He is, all right? That does it for Grant. Sean
has one more total to get to Royals Dodgers the
late game out in La tonight, Blake Snell making his
return for the Dodgers, so the rotation gets healthy late
in the season that they are wont to do. Michael
Waka on the other side for the Royals, and you
(33:07):
got a total play here as well.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
Yeah, I like the over here over eight up to
eight and a half at minus one oh five. Blake
Snell returning for the Dodgers did not extend out super
far in rehab. I don't really know what to expect
from him tonight. I don't think you're getting more than
four innings, maybe five if he's efficient from Snell tonight.
And the concern is that both Tanner Scott and Edwin
(33:30):
Diaz are likely down at the back end of the Dodgers'
bullpen today, so they are going to need to figure
out the bullpen situation. Even behind Snell, the Royals have
been hitting left these a little bit better than they've
been hitting ready as he saw them get the Tark
school a little bit yesterday, Jack Kags going left on
left and taking him deep. Even beyond that, though, you
know they still chip away got a couple extra runs
(33:51):
against the Dodgers' bullpen in the middle innings, so I
think the Royals can score enough tonight to put runs
on the board, but I like the Dodgers to feast
against Michael Waka here. He was a brutal watch in
his last start against the Twins. You see five and
two thirds, three hits, one run. He could not find
the zone, and the Twins just could not take advantage
of it. They were being very patient against them. Three walks,
(34:11):
one k. But it was I'm telling you, it was
a torturous watch. I had the Royals money line in
that game. They were up three to one, I believe
when Waka left the game and their bullpen was the
one that ended up blowing it. But Waka was in
trouble throughout that start. His stuff just looks awful. He
can't miss bats, nineteen percent strike out rate. Goinging up
(34:31):
against the best offensive baseball. The Dodters are gonna get
pitches they hit tonight. They're gonna get a lot of
walks tonight. I would imagine I would have looked at
a Waka over walks prop because he was really nibbling
against a Twins offense, which is even less dangerous than
this daughter's offense. So I'm curious to see whether he's
daring and willing to pump fastballs on the zone against
this team. Three fifty expected Bobo on his fastball, four
(34:54):
seeing fastball, three sixty on his sinker, three point fifty
eight on his cutter. So the Doughters have been shri
uggling with hard stuff lately. Waka is not throwing hard fastballs.
He's throwing fastballs and locating them in the low nineties.
We'll see if the Daughters are able to turn those
around tonight. As I said yesterday, Daughter's much better against
righty's than they are against lefties. I project them of
(35:14):
around a one twenty worc plus against right handed pitching,
Royals around league average against lefties. But I make this
total about nine. I like the over eight and a
half to minus one oh five, not only Walka, but
also the Royals bullpen should hopefully gift us some runs late,
and the daughter's top two arms being down hopefully gets
(35:34):
the Royals a late run and is able to get
us to nine.
Speaker 2 (35:39):
All right, there you have it. We got five dingers
from Grant for Sean. We've got three overs, two unders,
and a team total over for your Tuesday baseball betting pleasure.
It's gonna do it for today's episode of Payoff Pitch.
Thanks so much for tuning in. If you'd like tail
some of the bets from today's episode, look for the
quick slip links in the episode descript Please don't forget
(36:01):
to download the free award winning Action Network app. Also
leave his five star rating and review wherever you get
your podcasts. Very much appreciate it. We'll be back on
Friday with another episode four Shanzarello and Grantony for I'm
Calm Richard. Thanks again for listening to Payoff Pitch, Action
Network's Major League Baseball betting podcast. Good luck to follow
your bet.
Speaker 3 (36:32):
Hurt this crowd on his feet? What a trigu no
one watch the way
Frying akball, no crying, and this game is underway. In
the lineup, it is spring stoppering Josh the bit outside.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Castianos.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
It will be a home run.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
And look to sum up you talk about a roll
at the dice. This is it. Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch. Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Tuesday, August eleventh. I'm Collin Wichard, joined as
usual by Action Network Senior MLB analyst Sean Zarrillo, as
well as the king of the home run prop Grant
me for of scores and ods to break down this
(00:54):
busy Tuesday MLB slate full lady games all under the life.
We got looks like six bets from Sean. We got
five dingers from Grant, so we're gonna jump right into it.
See what these guys are betting for tonight's slate. Quick
reminder though, before we get started that we will have.
(01:17):
It is Tuesday, and just as we do every Tuesday,
we'll have MLB Prop Drop live coming up later today
one pm Eastern, this very same place. If you're watching
live on YouTube, if you're not live on YouTube one
pm Eastern, I'll be on with two of the top
prop masters in the game, Sean Kerner and Derek Cardi.
(01:38):
They'll each be giving out their three favorite props from
tonight's late so be sure to tune into that if
you are able. All right, let's jump into our Tuesday
best bets. Sean, I'm gonna go to you first. Got
it's a very total, total centric day for you today.
The first one we're gonna go to is Cubs Nationals
(01:58):
in DC. Showed to immen Naga against Jake Irvin what
he got for us?
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Yeah, five sides and one total yesterday, six totals that
I have one team total among those, so kind of
one side and five totals. But first under on the
board Cubs and Nationals under nine. I bet that at
minus one oh five. I like it to about minus
one twenty. That is roughly where it's gone to. So
there's not a ton of room left in this line.
Both teams off yesterday got their bullpens arrest. Nationals should
(02:25):
be starting Jake Irvian tonight. That's what the beat writers
have said. They have not officially announced it on MLB
Dot com but always have to look at the wind
when showed tim Innaugua is starting. I believe our bet
Labs account posted a trend before his last start, or
maybe two starts back when he was at Rigally, you know,
showed his performance basically just tracks with the wind direction.
(02:46):
When the wind wind's blowing out, the overs hit and
he gets hit. When the wind is blowing in or neutral,
he's fine and pitches well, and he's outperformed his projections
this season. All of his expected indicators sitting closer to
three point seven projections still have him north of afore
e a projection I move him closer to that three
point seven number. Obviously, do not love Jake Irvin nor
(03:08):
the Nationals bullpen. But without James Wooden there, this offense
projects about a third of a run worse. I know
they've still been hitting even without him, but that is
what he's worth essentially to their team total. In their line,
he's worth about a third of a run four tenths
of a run, So without him in there, this goes
from an above average offense to a below average offense
on paper. For me, also, Curtis Mead no longer there anymore,
(03:30):
so you know, this lineup is not the same as
it's been since the beginning of the ear of Luis
cars Sier Junior no longer there anymore. So you know
all of that to say they've been scoring runs since
the tradeline deadline. I do not project them nearly at
the same level as I did pre schet a deadline.
I have this total about eight point four. Again, take
under nine to about minus one twenty between the Cubs
and Nuts.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Love a little non correlated SGP when you two are
on the show together. So let's do exactly that with
Grant's first home run. Bet sean betting on low scoring game.
But there's still room for a few runs in this game.
So Grant, what do you got for a homer in
this game?
Speaker 1 (04:08):
Yeah, I'm targeting Jake Irban a little bit. P Crow Armstrong.
Speaker 4 (04:12):
You can find him anywhere from plus three thirty to
plus three forty. It's been bouncing right around that number
all morning. But I like it either. I have the
Trurods closer like plus two seventy. The spot here is
a good one. Irvin has been better this season a's
pressing power. Last season, however, he was just a complete
and uttered gas can for lefty power, giving up over
(04:32):
at two home run per nine due for some negative
regressions so far this season grades out as a fantastic
matchup for lefty power.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
The weather over in Chicago or not Chicago, Washington.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
Rather is pretty solid eighty five degrees during game time,
good humanity with just crossing to the right. So it's
just a good spot. He's a great home run hitter,
and Irving, I think is getting a little bit too
overvalued this season just because of how he's played.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
But he's due for some regression my model. So I
really like the spot for PCA.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
PCA pulling ahead of Otani in terms of odds, but
also he's now one point five war clear in terms
of fangrafts. War So become the actual MVP favorite. It
was a pick him for a little while, but now
he's he's pulled through about minus one twenty and Otani
finally getting to plus money.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
It's fun to see.
Speaker 4 (05:23):
Like I thought Otani would just be a lot this
year with especially considering how well he's pitched, but PCA
coming in playing great defense and just playing great baseball.
It's it's it's nice to have this race actually be exciting,
kind of like it was with the Al last year.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Yeah, PCA's defensive value definitely doing a lot for that
war total. And you know, Otani having a down year
by his standards offensively, the fact that he only has
twenty five homers right now or whatever it is and
is a little bit surprising to PCA right there with him.
We've talked about a lot about that future's race sean.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Defense members so much. I mean, you know, if you
tailed me on the Royals first five yesterday, Bobby Witt
got that home for us by himself. Bobby Witt made
like four or five defensive plays in that first five
innings alone that saved several runs, a double play that
he got too deep in the hole that took away
two outs, that prevented a Bas's loaded no out situation.
So PCA's defensive impact is massive. He is the best
defensive rated player in my model, Bobby Witt. It is
(06:22):
not too far behind him, but he does have a
massive impact on the game. And you know, I would
argue at this point he saved more runs as a
defender than Otani has saved relative to the average pitcher.
So he's putting up historic defensive numbers in addition to
having a nine to fifty plus ops just an incredible
year for PCI.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
Bobby Witt also created or on virtually by himself in
the first inning of that game. Yeah, he beat beat
out a double play ball to keep the ending alive,
stole second, came home on a single there for that
first Royals run. So very impressive stuff. By the way,
for those interested in this little non correlated SGP under
nine PCA home run DraftKings nine to one, so might
(07:02):
be throwing a little coin on that tonight as well.
Let's move on to our next game of the day. Sean,
you are going to Mets Braves. Mets first five came
through force last night. They made a sweat a little bit.
Who was it hit a first inning grand slam. We're
(07:23):
feeling bady that baty hit a first inning grand slam.
Was feeling really good about that. I was on that
as well. And then the fourth, fifth inning, the Braves
start chipping away, chipping away. The Mets have a guy
on the mound in the fifth inning, who would I
don't think it was his major league debut, but he's
one of the guys they just they just called up
and I was like, you got to seven to four,
It got to seven to five. I'm like, please just
(07:43):
get through this fifth inning. They did, Thankfully they got
home for US tonight's game. We have Nolan McLain on
the mound against Martin Perez, who keeps doing it for
the Braves somehow, hopefully for not that much longer though.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Yeah, So yesterday, the alternative I recommend it to the
first five money was the Mets team total over three
and a half. You don't have to sweat that one
very long at all. Just about six hitters. That's what
I'm going back to tonight. I show a bigger etch here
on the team total today than I do on the
Mets money line. You could play the Mets fall game
money line. It's got down to about plus one twenty.
I make it closer to even money. With McLain going
against Martin Perez. I'd take it down to about plus
(08:19):
one ten.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
But I show a.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Bigger edge on their team total over three and a half.
I like that up to about minus one fifty. I
took it at minus one thirty two this morning kind
of went through the Mets line up yesterday. The fact
that they are sort of all clicking together right now,
or at least most of them are clicking relative to
how they've hit for a large part of the year.
They project pretty solidly against lefties. Five hitters project for
(08:40):
better than a one to ten wor rec plus Jacob
Young the biggest hole in that lineup against left handed pitching.
See if they end up platuning him tonight. But I
make the Mets or have the Mets team total around
four point four or five runs, so nearly a run
above the three and a half team total, but factoring
in the juice, I only like it up to about
minus one fifty. But that said, there's still a nice
(09:01):
sizable edge compared to the market. I saw the best
or the worst available prize this morning was minus one
forty five, and largely the market was sitting around minus
one thirty five, So Mets team total over three and
a half up to minus one forty five or minus
one fifty. Rather, if you can only find the four
and a half, I would take the four and a
half at about plus one ten if that's the only option,
(09:25):
but definitely prefer getting at three and a half with
the game total sitting at eight and a half. Martin
Pees just been outperforming his underlying indicators by about a
full run this year. They got to Brace Elder yesterday.
Hopefully they're able to get to Martin Perez today because
he just can't keep doing this. He cannot keep doing
his eighty seven stuff plus twenty percent nineteen percent strikeout rate,
a twenty two percent with rate is three fourteen earrays mirage.
(09:49):
He should be closer to four and a half, especially
as he nears age forty, So fading the Martin Perez
train today. Hopefully the Mets offense keep going.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
For us from one New York to Ta to another
for Grant's next Dinger pick. Actually, I was looking at
Sean your Bartolo tool this morning. This isn't one of
your official plays for the show, but I saw you
had an edge on the first five over here in
a Mariner's Yankees, and Grant is hoping for some runs
as well in the dinger department with a Yankees hitter today.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (10:20):
No, I really like the lefties for the Yankees, but
specifically Trent Grisham at plus three forty six is too high.
Wu has been very good this year at pressing lefty
power better this year at s pressing lefty power, sitting
at one point one to three home run per nine,
but he has larger than average splits due for some
negative regression versus lefties. Obviously plays in a pitcher friendly ballpark.
(10:44):
And now he's over in New York to day and
the weather it's it's decently hot, it's pretty humid, eighty
four degrees, good humidity, wind blowing out about five miles
an hour. And we note that Yankee Stadium is one
of the best ballparks in the league for lefty power.
So you have a guy with above average splitz going
against the lefty who's due for some positive aggression in
(11:06):
Trent Grisham. And the spot here is just overall a
very good one, and the price doesn't fully reflect that
on Grisham. It flects a little bit more on guys
like Garcia and Rice, but Grisham's price is a bitting
fled maybe because of his play this year. I had
his true odds rider or under plus three hundred here,
so you get some really solid value going up against
(11:26):
Food to day.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
And Grisham just wanted to comment on the over I'm
just gonna wait for umpires there Colin, i'd be shown edge.
As you said on the first five over, I make
that about four point seventy five, you can get it
over four. I also make the full game total about
eight point five. You can get over eight. Just want
umpires before I end up locking in anything there. But
to Grant's point, Brian Wu not only larger than average splitz,
maybe the worst home road splits, you know, differential of
(11:49):
anybody in baseball, at least this year in twenty twenty six,
he's rocking a three eighteen expected fit at home, four
to twenty on the road, but a nine percent strike
out my walk right difference twenty five percent at home,
fifteen percent on the road. So Brian Wu just much
more success at home. I think, you know the batter's
eye something with like where he releases his fastball from
(12:10):
tends to boost his ability and his general profile at
home doesn't affect all the Maritors pitchers in the same
Love and Gilbert pretty much neutral home road, but Miller
Brian Wu pretty big drastic home road splits. So going
to take a look at the over there. As you
guys mentioned, definitely like will a lot rest when he's
pitching away from team mobile.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
If Sean logs a bet on that total, you will
find it in the Action App. If Grant logs any
more Homer bets so he doesn't give out on today's show,
he will log those in the Action App. And that
is a good reminder that if you sign up for
Action Pro, you can get real time pick alerts from
experts like Sean Grant, Derek Cardy on our entire Action
(12:50):
Network team. Plus you can access our pro prop projections
powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team. I
have to do is go to Actionnetwork dot com slash
and get twenty dollars off the annual price with the
promo code Pod twenty. So don't miss out on the
best bets at the best prices, and don't miss out
on real time pick alerts anytime these guys log bets
(13:11):
in the app. Well, you have to just go to
actionek dot com slash pro use promo code Pod twenty. Again,
that's twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro. All right,
next total for you, Zurillo. Wow, I don't know how
if we want to talk about this play in the
Red Sox Blue Jays last night. If you guys saw this,
(13:33):
this double play where they still allow a run to score.
One of the most bizarre plays I saw fifteen minute delay.
Just to recap it a little bit. The Red Sox
had first and third with one out flyball to center field.
Both runners took off immediately thinking there was two outs
because the scoreboard said there was two outs. Centerfielder catches
(13:56):
the ball, throws it in. They throw it to first,
get the double play inning over again. The guy from
third took off immediately crossed home plate. They ruled that
the run counted because the umpires I guess screwed up
and said he tagged up, and because they said that
Toronto needed to appeal to third that he left early
(14:20):
and they didn't do that. So it was a inning
ending double play, but also a sacrifice fly and the
run counted. One of the most bizarre things I've ever
seen in my entire life. The broadcasters were flabbergasts. Chris Guccioni,
trying to explain it after talking to New York for
fifteen minutes, is basically just like, so, this is what happened,
this is the score. Now we're moving on absolute madness.
(14:45):
Thankfully it didn't I mean it didn't cost the Blue
Chase the game that would have been something. But tonight's
Red Sox Blue Jays game is Patrick Sandoval against one
of the cy young favorites, Dylan Cease, and we'll hope
for no Shenanigans in the run scoring department tonight Sean Yeah.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Hopefully visa young favorite Dylan Cease carrying that nice long
shot ticket on both he and Jurdn Alvarez from the preseason.
The only feels like the only coold calls have had
this year, the long shot that's on those two guys.
But Cease has been trending up Schlitler trending down just
a little bit, seas I believe, has overtaken the lead
in terms of the odds board. That change up that
the Blue Jays of Adam throwing this year one to
(15:25):
ninety four expected will but in a fifty three percent
with rate. It was the missing ingredient to tie the
room together. It was the rug that tied the room
together for his entire arsenal. And now he's got the slider,
which remains a lead alongside the change up, which is
performing even better than the slider. Is had a complete
game shutout against these Red Sox back on July twenty fifth. Obviously,
(15:46):
the Red Sox ended up surging soon after. The ball
percentage is the one thing you worry about with Cese.
You know, he can have innings and he kind of
starts where he's wild and teams are patient against him
and try to wait him out, make him throw pitches
in his own and you just can't do that. He's
had those issues throughout his career. You know, there's going
to be ten starts here where you guys don't have
their command a third of their starts, they're not going
(16:07):
to have their best stuff. Maybe he doesn't have it tonight,
and on those nights he can be very frustrating to watch,
but he largely has avoided those issues this year. He's
only done it one or two times as opposed to
ten times like you would expect for a pitcher throughout
the year. So Cease has been phenomenal. He's been efficient.
Patrick Sandoval is the side of the matchup that you'd
be a little bit more concerned about. He's carrying a
(16:28):
one oh six stuff plus rating coming back off of injury,
and he's priged pretty well along with it. Fourteen percent
strikeout minus walk rate is above the major league gaverage
hasn't really gotten barreled up despite allowing a decent number
of fly balls ADLEI Rutchman coming back for the Red
Sox tonight a little bit better of a defender behind
the plate for them, because I do not like Connor
(16:48):
Wong at all. He rates among my worst defensive catchers.
I forgot who the Red Sox were playing along with
Wang behind the dish while Ruschman was out. But Rutchmand
a good hitter, but projects is a better defender than
he is a good hitter, so that actually helps keep
the team total and the game total under a little
bit more. I make this total about six point seven.
I'd bet under seven and a half to minus one thirty,
(17:09):
or I'd take under seven to minus one oh five.
Between the Jays and the Red Sox, two excellent defensive
teams as well. We don't really talk about that a ton,
but these teams, who both rate extremely highly in my model,
neither team has major power. These both rate is very
good contact teams, but not massive power teams for me.
(17:29):
So hopefully a bunch of balls in play that we're
getting hits stolen on either side, and then both pitchers
keep this one scoring. The main concern here on the
J side. Varland and Rodgers may both be out tonight
at the back end of their bullpen, and they believe
pitched the last two days, maybe two of the past
three days for each of them. So the Jay's bullpen
behind Cease is a little bit worrisome. But as long
(17:50):
as Hes is efficient, as long as he's not having
those starts where he's throwing a lot of pitches outside
of the zone, I do like this game total stay under.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
The Red Sox have my number one bullpen. Yeah, Rogers
and Barlin both pitched yesterday. Rogers has pitched last two
and three of the last four. Varlin's pitched two of
the last three and five of the last seven Red
Sox catching. By the way, Jake Rogers came over.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
Along with Ers.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
Rogers is a good defender, so that's that's too big
defensive upgrades for them.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
But Connor Wong got a little banged up last night too,
so I wouldn't be surprised to see Rogers behind the
plate tonight.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
I was just looking at the al You know, Pennons,
we're going to talk about the rais game here in
a little bit. It's hard not to like the Red Sox.
The way they've tried it, the way their offense is performed.
I just worried that they've played their best ball already.
I actually want to dig into like has a team
played their best ball?
Speaker 1 (18:43):
You know?
Speaker 3 (18:44):
Is that a thing? Like in terms of peaking too early?
Is that for playoffs? You know? Do teams peak too early?
Do teams who play Do teams who go on these
long winning streaks like not find it again for October?
Or is that an indicator that they're able to put
together a long winning shreaks in October? So I want
to go through history. I want to look at, you know,
past team performances, past teams whore ripped off streaks like that,
(19:05):
to see how they've actually performed, because that's something that
interests me. I was never in love with this roster,
but I do love the upgrades they've made, and like
the way they're gelling, and I like the way their
offense is patient and takes a lot of pitches and
seems to have a philosophy. So yeah, al remains wide
open and wind out.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
The Red Sox.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
One last quick note before we move on al Cy
Young race. See still a hair behind Schlitzler on the
odds market DraftKings. Schlitler minus won twenty five cease even
money at the moment. So that is a real toss
up race as we come down the stretch.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
Yeah, I make actually I make Schlitler slight favorite over him.
Mab Schlitler plus one twenty five cease at plus one
seventy five. Gavin Williams the one edge bet popping up.
He's really been surging of Blake. Gave up a couple
of runs in his last start, but he ripped off
kind of that Blake Snell like stretch where he struck
out ten plus batters in every game. And Yep, when
I bet Snell at sixty to one or whatever it
(20:01):
was a couple of years ago for Cy Young, I
was just like, if he keeps this going, he's gonna
win it. That's kind of how I feel about Gavin Williams.
Davi Milliams keeps ripping off ten strikeout performances over his
next seven starts, he may get himself in the race
and win it.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
So definitely, all right, let's get another dinger in here
from Grant. We're going to Brewers Padres in San Diego.
Targeting a Brewers hitter here against can never argue with
targeting a hitter against Walker Bueler on the home tonight.
Speaker 4 (20:28):
Yeah, well, I mean you can say that earlier on
this season, but he was He's a reverse splits pitcher
that I was waiting for regression all the way through May,
all the way through June, and then finally in July
it started happening. And since the beginning of July he
just hasn't really been the same, been giving up a
good amount of bombs in the last month and a half,
(20:49):
and now his overall numbers on the season versus the
Rioty sitting at one point five to six, which is
well above average. That number is significantly higher in the
last month and a half. And Cherio has been fantastic
this season. I'm really having a bit of a breakout season.
All the underlying numbers are good, just a very solid
power hitter, barrel rates sitting up in the teams low
(21:10):
teams mid teens.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
So Cheerio. We're getting him.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
At plus five to twenty five today, like getting him
in a plus spot to potentially well above average spot
at plus five twenty five is just absolutely silly to me.
The guy has a ton of power you can get,
Like I think the lowest it's out there is probably
around plus four to sixty. I would still take it
at that. I have this over one hundred points lower
(21:37):
for his true odds, So Cheerio at plus five to
twenty five is massive value.
Speaker 3 (21:41):
Yeah, we don't think of Jackson Cheerio is like a
power guy. In my tool, I have him with an
a power grade that's pulling in a bunch of different
stackass metrics to independently measure that out. He's ninety percent
time on barrel rate, ninety first and average exit philosophy. He's,
you know, a guy you consider more of like a
five tool power speed mix, but you wouldn't expect he's
like one of the best power guys in the bigs.
(22:01):
Really like that play from Granteday, I think Jackson Turio's
power is underrated and he's gonna start creeping closer to
that thirty home run mark. He's at seventeen this year,
but I think by next year he's only twenty two
years old. I think he's going to start pushing towards
that thirty thirty five home run Mark.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
There's a little fun fact out there that I just
saw where he is about to reach. He's going to
try to reach sixty home runs, fifty stolen bases in
two hundred RBI before his twenty third birthday. Wow. Only
other guys to do that in history. Orlando sepaida Caesar
Sedanio and Andrew Jones. So pretty good company there for Cheerio.
(22:38):
All right, next two games.
Speaker 1 (22:39):
Love this.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
Next two games. Sean is on a total and Grant
is on a homer from both of these games. So
we'll go Sean first. In Orioles twins, Brandon Young against
Bailey Ober.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Yeah, I make this total closer to ten. I took
nine at minus one twenty last night. I like it
up to nine and a half at minus one ten.
Bailey O, the gentle Giant is not getting a glow up,
not adding ten miles an hour to his fastball velocity.
He's still throwing in the upper eighties to mid eighties,
and he's due to get crushed at some point. Hopefully
(23:12):
that point is tonight. Both of these starting pitchers just project,
you know, significantly, not significantly below average, but certainly quantifiably
below average. For me, I just want to see where
I have either ranked. I have Over at one seventy eight.
I have Brandon Young at one twenty three. I'm a
little bit higher in Brandon Young, but his last couple
starts is pitched closer to expectations given runs or three homers,
(23:35):
hasn't gotten the strikeouts as efficiently. This Twins lineup has
overachieved or overperformed relative to expectations for the entire year.
Don't rate either of these teams as strong defensively. Don't
like either bullpen, in particular the Orioles.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
Shit.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
I have a couple guys out tonight, Grant Wolfram, the
key guy among the two. Thunderbirk looks like he might
be out for the Twins. He's pitched really well of late.
So both pens a little bit short. Don't like either starter.
Weather seems positive for offense, and both offenses project average
or better. Make this total again about ten, and I
(24:15):
like the over nine and a half to minus one
time between the Orioles and the Twins.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
If the last couple of years, if I told you
Grant had a homer pick in the Mets game, you
would know who I was talking about. And now I'm
telling you he has a homer pick in the Orioles game,
so you can probably guess where he's going.
Speaker 4 (24:32):
Yep, it's good, old faithful, big meat. Pete had a
little bit down season, but the spot here is a
good one. Over has been pretty solid at limiting power
to rieties this year. Not a huge sample size, That's
why I'm not giving too much validity into it. Thirty
three percent flyball rate this year to rietis in small
sample size. Career rates a right around fifty, so doesn't
(24:57):
really make sense. In his career, he's been reverse slits
when it comes to power and been a well above
average power matchups, being at one point five to six
home runs for nine, so he's just kind of gotten
lucky this year. He's due for some regression. Sean's waiting
for it. I'm waiting for it, and I think today
could be the day at least against Alonzo where that
ends up happening here.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
So I've been great.
Speaker 4 (25:18):
I as a well above average matchup for variety power.
The weather over in Minnesota decent for heading temperatures in
the mid eighties heighth or good humidity, wind blowing out slightly,
so overall just a plus matchup that they really aren't
grading it as a plus matchup because of how Over
has been so far this year versus rites, and the
(25:38):
regression is coming, and I think it's coming today, and
I think Alonso has a much better chance than the
odds imply of hitting a bomb.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
And then the other game that we compare an over
with a homer in is in Sacramento. Raise A's Nick
Martinez against Mason Barnett. And another for you here, Sean.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
Yeah, I don't think any pitcher is over performing relative
to their underlying indicators more than Nick Martinez right now,
two sixty five era, everything says he should be closer
to a four or five type pitcher. Now, I've always
liked Nick Martinez more of the market. His numbers are
down relative to those prior years. He's just pitching better
or getting better results with a better defensive team behind him,
pitching in the drop. But again, two point sixty five
(26:24):
Eray expected fit of four point six, expected the Ray
of four point six, Sierra of four point eight, bot
Era three point six. So the pitching models like him
a little bit more than the underlying indicators do. But
again that expected RA number is a run higher than
the pitch modeling number, and even if you consider that
pitch modeling number to be his fair projection, it's still
(26:45):
a run higher than his actual era. So everything says
Nick Martinez should be substantially worse than he has been
to this point of the year. Even his most optimistic
fit projection is around three point nine, but the least
optimistic is around four point eight average four point four.
So Nick Martinez is due and has been due for
quite some time, to get hit at some point, hopefully
(27:06):
in Cetter Health Park tonight, which is outside of Corrs,
the best offensive venue in baseball. Hopefully it does come
against this A's offense, which I don't really love without
Nick Kurtz in there, but I do project this total
a ten point eight, so over ten and a half
up to even money would be the bet. Not a
fan of Mason Burnett or this A's bullpen either. Races
(27:28):
don't have a ton of power necessarily outside of Camonaro
to take advantage of this park fully, because you do
want fly ball hitters who can just let the ball
carry in the air here, you know, having guys like
Chandler Simpson or Richie Placios who are just kind of
looking to slash and put the ball in play is
not as exciting in this park, but is also a
bad defensive team. You know, they can give you extra
(27:49):
outs if you put the ball in play. Want to
come in briefly on Jacob Wilson in his defense, because
he just set error He just set a record for
number of games errorless at shortstop disagreement in terms of
the outs above average metrics and the defensive run saved
metrics For Jacob Wilson, I tend to trust the defensive
run save number, which is not only blending stack cast
(28:11):
data and range data, but also quantifying bad throws, you know,
like hand scorekeeping of individual things that are then plugged
into a model that rerate the defenders based upon things
they're doing that are, you know, taking poor routes to
the ball, bobbling things that lead to a runner getting
on base, that scored a hit, things like that that
(28:32):
don't really get noted in the box score. That is
what DRS is doing. That's what the people calculating DRS
are there implementing. Where OAA is a bit more just
straight stack cast equativeness. So I don't think Jacob Wilson
is a good defender. I know OA says he is,
I know he has that airless streak, but DRS says
he's been the second worst defensive shortstop in baseball over
(28:53):
the past few years, I believe, other than Zach Netto.
I'm not sure who was last behind it, but he's
like minus twenty nine year arrest since these debuted. So
just wanted to comment on that briefly. And you know
the availability of different public metrics and how you can
rate these players and finding ones that you're more comfortable with.
I've seen a lot of people posting the b ref
screenshot comparing Taylor Walls's war to Kylee Schwarber's war. Well,
(29:17):
there's a reason I don't use b ref war or
talk about brof work because I don't think it's a
good stat you know, you look at the Fangrass metrics
for that Taylor Taylor Walls is like a half win
player and Kylee Schwarber is like three wins above him.
I think fangrass war does a much better calculating and
fairly adjusting from one position to the next, especially for DHS.
I don't really use or site b ref war or
(29:39):
calculate it in terms of my endfcason player models. So
just wanted to note some differences as we talk about
Nick Martinez and big differences in stats versus projections, some
other differences in stats and projections and metrics out there,
and just evaluating what you're more comfortable with or finding
the data points that are most predictive.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
Sean is on the over here in A's rays. As
I mentioned Grant on a Homer here too. There are
very few more appealing hitter park matchups for Homer, this
guy in Sacramento. I was on him last night. I
came through late for us. I expected the odds to
be way lower than what they are. They're good enough
(30:21):
that Grant's on them, so why don't you fire away?
Speaker 3 (30:23):
Grant?
Speaker 4 (30:24):
Yeah, and the ads aren't terribly high, but they're still
high enough for me. I mean, you can find anywhere
from plus two forty all the way up to plus
two seventy nine where I got him, and I honestly
like it all the way down to two plus two
forty because the spot here is just great. I mean,
the ballpark upgrade going from the TRUP over here is
just massive. Obviously, John mentioned it one of the best
(30:46):
hitter ballparks in the league. The weather is great today,
tempts in the mid eighties, wind blowing out at eight
miles an hour, and one of the more win susceptible
ballparks in the league, decent humidity. Cam Narrow going out
against Barnette. Barnett has been hammered this season, just absolutely
crushed by power, and he is due for some positive regression.
Speaker 1 (31:07):
But you look at the underlying numbers.
Speaker 4 (31:09):
Yes, he's striking out right, he's at a big rate,
but fly ball rate close to fifty percent not what
you want in this park. Hard contact rate sitting at
fifty percent definitely not what you want in this park.
And camlan Arrow, we know how good he is, and
he's doing all these numbers while playing in the trough
this year. We were worried that, oh, last year might
have just been playing in a Mickey Mouse ballpark that
(31:30):
got him to do so well. But it's pretty clear
that now he's just got a ton of pop. I mean,
we all should have known it from just his swing
speed and the contact he was making, but it's very
clear that he's just one of the best power hitters
in the league. And this spot here is a well
above average one and we're still only getting plus two
seventy nine odds. Is just absolutely silly to me. I
(31:52):
don't like betting guys under plus three hundred that often,
but when you got a spot like this, in a
ballpark like this, with weather like this, you just don't
overthink it.
Speaker 2 (32:03):
I love this. I love that we have a couple
of overs from Sean and a couple of dingers from
Grant in the same game. If you were to parlay,
say Camonaro in the over or Alms in the over,
you're getting like four five to one. I'm gonna take
it a step further here, both overs, both homers, you're
getting about twenty seven to one. At DraftKings.
Speaker 1 (32:26):
That's gonna be.
Speaker 2 (32:27):
My my SGP, my unofficial show. SGP is a Orioles
Twins over raise A's over, Alonzo homer, camon Aro homer again,
about twenty seven to one out there. That's a fun one.
Speaker 3 (32:41):
All right, here's one home run back from the league lead.
He's at thirty four now, yes.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
He is, all right? That does it for Grant. Sean
has one more total to get to Royals Dodgers the
late game out in La tonight, Blake Snell making his
return for the Dodgers, so the rotation gets healthy late
in the season that they are wont to do. Michael
Waka on the other side for the Royals, and you
(33:07):
got a total play here as well.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
Yeah, I like the over here over eight up to
eight and a half at minus one oh five. Blake
Snell returning for the Dodgers did not extend out super
far in rehab. I don't really know what to expect
from him tonight. I don't think you're getting more than
four innings, maybe five if he's efficient from Snell tonight.
And the concern is that both Tanner Scott and Edwin
(33:30):
Diaz are likely down at the back end of the Dodgers'
bullpen today, so they are going to need to figure
out the bullpen situation. Even behind Snell, the Royals have
been hitting left these a little bit better than they've
been hitting ready as he saw them get the Tark
school a little bit yesterday, Jack Kags going left on
left and taking him deep. Even beyond that, though, you
know they still chip away got a couple extra runs
(33:51):
against the Dodgers' bullpen in the middle innings, so I
think the Royals can score enough tonight to put runs
on the board, but I like the Dodgers to feast
against Michael Waka here. He was a brutal watch in
his last start against the Twins. You see five and
two thirds, three hits, one run. He could not find
the zone, and the Twins just could not take advantage
of it. They were being very patient against them. Three walks,
(34:11):
one k. But it was I'm telling you, it was
a torturous watch. I had the Royals money line in
that game. They were up three to one, I believe
when Waka left the game and their bullpen was the
one that ended up blowing it. But Waka was in
trouble throughout that start. His stuff just looks awful. He
can't miss bats, nineteen percent strike out rate. Goinging up
(34:31):
against the best offensive baseball. The Dodters are gonna get
pitches they hit tonight. They're gonna get a lot of
walks tonight. I would imagine I would have looked at
a Waka over walks prop because he was really nibbling
against a Twins offense, which is even less dangerous than
this daughter's offense. So I'm curious to see whether he's
daring and willing to pump fastballs on the zone against
this team. Three fifty expected Bobo on his fastball, four
(34:54):
seeing fastball, three sixty on his sinker, three point fifty
eight on his cutter. So the Doughters have been shri
uggling with hard stuff lately. Waka is not throwing hard fastballs.
He's throwing fastballs and locating them in the low nineties.
We'll see if the Daughters are able to turn those
around tonight. As I said yesterday, Daughter's much better against
righty's than they are against lefties. I project them of
(35:14):
around a one twenty worc plus against right handed pitching,
Royals around league average against lefties. But I make this
total about nine. I like the over eight and a
half to minus one oh five, not only Walka, but
also the Royals bullpen should hopefully gift us some runs late,
and the daughter's top two arms being down hopefully gets
(35:34):
the Royals a late run and is able to get
us to nine.
Speaker 2 (35:39):
All right, there you have it. We got five dingers
from Grant for Sean. We've got three overs, two unders,
and a team total over for your Tuesday baseball betting pleasure.
It's gonna do it for today's episode of Payoff Pitch.
Thanks so much for tuning in. If you'd like tail
some of the bets from today's episode, look for the
quick slip links in the episode descript Please don't forget
(36:01):
to download the free award winning Action Network app. Also
leave his five star rating and review wherever you get
your podcasts. Very much appreciate it. We'll be back on
Friday with another episode four Shanzarello and Grantony for I'm
Calm Richard. Thanks again for listening to Payoff Pitch, Action
Network's Major League Baseball betting podcast. Good luck to follow
your bet.
Speaker 3 (36:32):
Hurt this crowd on his feet? What a trigu no
one watch the way
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