August 7, 2026 • 20 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Sean Zerillo and Derek Carty break down the Friday MLB slate, diving into sides, totals and player props. Using the MLB 20–80 scouting scale, they grade their most confident plays and highlight where they’re finding the most value across the board. Tune in to hear their top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Rate, review and subscribe to the show wherever you watch or listen so you don't miss us every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
What's that frying? A tight ball? No crying, and this
game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
In the up springs. Stop, bring Josh the bit out
of signed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Castiano, so
it will be a home run.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Wow. Hello, dude, coming on, you talk about a roll
of the dice. This is it. Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Hello and welcome to Payoff Pitch Action Networks, Major League
Baseball Betting Podcast. I'm joined today by Derek Carty to
help you break down a fifteen game slate for Friday,
August seventh. We're gonna give you our eighty grade bets,
sixty gray bets, forty grade bets, and let you out
of here as quickly as we can. All games are
to the lights tonight. No Cubs Friday afternoon home game,
(00:56):
they're on the road in Kansas City. We're going to
start off talk about the red hot Boston Red Sox,
who just cannot seem to lose. A's at Red Sox tonight.
We've got three bets on this game.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
I've won.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Derek has two. Derek's got a couple of pitcher props here.
First of the two, targeting Jack Perkins, a starter under
five and a half hits aloud at plus one point fifteen. Derek,
you like this to about minus one point eighty currently
minus one thirty at Caesars so still a little room.
Not as good of a number as what you were
(01:30):
able to take initially. But what did you see in
terms of this prop? Where do you project this and
what do you uh, We're you know, taking a stance
against the Red Sox offense A little bit gutsy at
this point, especially a team that puts the ball and
play a ton. I saw a joke tweet this morning,
actually that the Red Sox have a five thirty eight
Babbitt thrudders in scoring position over the past month. It
(01:51):
is a joke, but it feels like that at this point.
Insane game last night between the Red Sox and White Sox.
But two props are here. First of two, Jack Perkins
under five and a half HiT's take away.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
Yeah, I'm projecting Perkins for four point seventy five hits here,
so about three quarters of a hit under the line.
If you can get it at the plus money at
hard Rock, that's great. If you can only get it
at you know, the minus minus one thirty or so
at Caesars or DraftKings or wherever else has it. I'm
okay with that too. This is more of a bet
(02:23):
against the Red Sox than it is on Perkins. Like
I don't think Perkins is necessarily anything great, but Boston
has been so hot right now that, like I think
the market is overreacting. You know, we know that hot
streaks really are not predictive of what's going to happen
in the future, and so if the market is going
(02:43):
to overreact to what Boston has been doing, I will
find a way to hit the other side of it.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Other prop in that game, Peyton totally under sevent hit
and a half outs at plus one forty. Do you
think the rub in this one is a little bit difficult?
I love totally. I bet the under in this game.
I'll get to that in a second. The Red Sox, though,
with that twelve million game last night, a lot of
their relievers I do have Marked is tired or at
least fatigued for tonight, so they may need a little
bit extra work from him today, but I still have
(03:12):
enough fresh arms that he may come out before the
sixth inning has ended. Also, a week in the A's
offense without Nick Kurtzon lineup, especially against left handed hitting
or left handed pitching rather but totally under seventeen and
a half outs a big number of plus one forty
Where do you like that downte and what you's here?
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Yeah, this one's a little scary because, like you said,
the A's offense right now is very watered down, is
very bad, but totally under seventeen and a half outs
plus one forty one at polymarket, and I like it
down to even money or so. I think it's a
good bet. It's more one that I'm trusting the projection
on than anything else. The projection is about sixteen and
(03:50):
a half out. It's about a fifty six percent chance
of going under here. So if it's anything close to
a coin flip and we're getting good plus money on it,
I'm gonna take it. It's more I think to do
with totally not really being allowed to go super deep
into games than anything else. He's more of like an
eighty five ninety pitch guy. Like you said, the bullpen
(04:11):
situation not ideal for him today. The matchup against the
A's is easy, but he is in a really tough
park at home. It is almost ninety degrees. There a
little bit of win. So given the projection, you know,
being close to a coin flip, I'm just gonna take it.
Hope for the best.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
Yeah, I bet the under nine in this game. I
like it down to nine at minus one twenty. It
has already moved off of that number though sitting at
eight and a half didn't matter yesterday bet the nine
moved down eight and a half, ended up getting thirteen
runs fifteen runs in that game, ridiculous game even before
it got to extra innings, but has moved off of
that number today. If you see a nine minus one
twenty pop up or an eight and a half at
(04:50):
even money, I would take it very high. In Peyton totally.
Still like the Red Sox bullpen rates as the top
two bullpen for me, even given the tired in his
factor today. The A's bullpen the main cons earn of
this game, one of my bottom five bullpens, but as
I said, their offense without Nick Kurtz and as Derek said,
a bit watered down at the moment, and especially against
left dand and pitching, I think they will struggle. First
(05:12):
money line back for me, the Braves Red hot Braves
about plus one forty down to plus one thirty. I
make them plus one to eighteen against the Yankees and
the Bronx tonight. Tyler Maley making his first start for
the Braves. Other guys who've made their first starts for
their new teams have gotten sheld, so hopefully Mally does
not fall intrough the same category tonight. Casey meis lit
up by the d Backs the other night. One of
(05:34):
the three, but yeah, the guy's new faces, new places
has not gone well thus far. Foster Griffin for the
Guardians yesterday as well, getting hit hard Max rad I
believe this is his second start back off of the
IL against the Braves offense that does project very well
against left handed pitching. Not only do the Braves of
the offense advantage for me, they also have the bullpen
(05:55):
edge as well. I'm not particularly high on this. Yankees
bullpen rate them right around league average. Have the Braves
even with some guys down and tired today, I still
have is my number eight bullpen Again, I make this
game about plus one to eighteen, even with the Yankees
having the starting pitching edge. Would bet Atlanta down two
plus one twenty seven. Second money line for me Rangers
(06:18):
minus one forty going up against the Baltimore Orioles. I
like that up to about minus one fifty. Make it
closer to minus one sixty. I can get it even
higher than that. Frankly, Shane boss is pitch better of late.
Still prefer Nate Eavaldi think the Red or I think
the Rays of just not the race. Think the Orioles
are just the five hundred team the rest of the way.
(06:38):
I think the Bread the Rangers about the same, but
I do give them the offensive advantage. Baltimore projects slightly
below average against rightheaded pitching. For me, I have the
Rangers about six points better, so eight points separating them
in terms of projected WRC plus. Prefer the Rangers defensively,
have the bullpens about the same. Again, I make the
Rangers minus one sixty. Would bet them up minus one
(07:00):
fifty I saw earlier in the sheet, Derek, I believe
you would have the Twins' first five money line. I
think they had switched starters the Debbie Matthews, So I
believe you've pivoted to Shane Drohan under seventeen and a
half outs at minus one oh two. What's your price
target on that game, and I correct that you pivoted
off of a Twins first five bet there.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Yeah, I pivoted off the Twins first five bet because
I was expecting Connor Prilip at first, and then yes,
he'd switch to Debbie Matthews. So I was like, Okay,
the projection doesn't like that nearly as much. So I'm
looking at the Drohan under Drohan under seventeen and a
half outs minus one o two at DraftKings Good down
to minus one fifty five or so. Drohan's a guy
(07:43):
that maybe I'm just wrong about, but I'm not buying him.
I know my projection system, the bad X is not
buying him as anything close to a three five era
pitcher like he's pitched so far. It hasn't projected for
a four point six' nine era going. FORWARD i just
don't see him striking out a a batter per inning
(08:05):
the way he's. Been his stuff plus number is. Average
his stuff numbers in my system the back cast are.
AVERAGE i just don't see him doing. It and he's
not a guy that they let go very, deep you,
know kind of like an eighty five ninety pitch, guy
similar to To peyton tole he's gone over this number
IN i think five straight games or something like, that
(08:29):
but he's closer to fifty to fifty on the, year
AND i JUST i think when the regression, hits he's
not going to be as, Efficient he's not going to
be able to go as deep and so so, YEAH
i have this projected as a sixty seven percent winner.
Today So i'm hoping for the best.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Number five starter in The brewers rotation now that they've Acquired.
Dustin may see If Kyle harrison able to get over
those cramps that he sustained in his last.
Speaker 4 (08:55):
Start derek just.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
Curious you Know, drohan a guy you're lower, on how
do you, feel but a guy Like Robert gass or
another lefty that The brewers have, developed you kind of
have like a similar opinion on him that you're a
little bit, lower you would, say than the.
Speaker 4 (09:08):
Market, uh, YEAH i.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
WOULD i don't Think gasser is a little. Lower not
as low AS i am On drohan relative to the,
market but a little. LOWER i THINK i Have gaser
with like a four to seven era going, forward and
he's pitched more like a four to four and a
half guy so. Far as opposed to like the three
and a half That johan's.
Speaker 3 (09:28):
Been, yeah The, brewers for whatever reason we still have
been able to figure. Out but for whatever, reason The
brewers keep performing better than expectations year in year. OUT
i bet them to win The division this, year but
did not expect them to be currently the number one
seed in The National. League, daughters by the, way currently
the number three seed in THE, nl just like last.
Year if the playoffs started, today The dodgers would not
get to buy both The brewers and The braves ahead of.
(09:50):
Them dodgers' third best record in The Big league so
worth keeping an eye on the playoff picture down the.
Stretch dodgers have some work to do to get a
buy and secure. It final moneyline bet for me before
we pivot To derek's remaining bets for, TODAY i like
The mariners at about minus one twenty are at about
minus one ten up to minus one twenty. Three Drew
(10:11):
raspies And Drew gilbert Or Logan gilbert one of the
best pitching matchups on the board for. Today seattle offense
projects about three points better in terms OF wrc plus
against right hand and pitching bullpens around the same number
nine versus number seven for, Me gilbert have two spots
better Than, rasmis and again they're about the same as.
Well so this essentially comes down to that slight lineup
(10:33):
edge for me On seattle, AGAIN i make them minus one,
thirty would bet them up to around minus one. Twenty,
Derek we're gonna pivot to your remaining sixty or eight
and forty grade bets in a, Second but, first don't
forget to sign up for Action pro for real time
pick alerts from experts Like Grant ney For Derek, cardy
myself and our entire action over. Team plus you can
access our pro projections powered By Sean kerner and our
(10:55):
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dollars off a year Of Action Pro pivoting to That
dodters game AS i alluded to against The Arizona, Diamondbacks
(11:17):
Roki sasaki going up Against Merril. Kelly roki's pitched a
little bit better of late, fastball getting some velocity spin,
Increasing but the D backs are among the toughest teams
to strike out in the sports second and strikeout rate
coming into, today you Like roki to go under four
and a half strikeouts at plus one twenty.
Speaker 4 (11:38):
Six where do you'd project this number and where do
you like that?
Speaker 1 (11:40):
To, Yeah i'm Projecting roki for four point four strikeouts.
Here so if we're going to get the plus one
twenty six at, DraftKings i think that's. FINE i like
it down to about even money or SO i project
this as about a fifty five percent, Winner so even,
money you're still going to, get you, know some solid.
Value like you, Said zona is a really tough team
(12:01):
to strike, out one of the lowest strikeout right teams
in the, league and SO i think that's what's driving
this projection more than anything.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Else and then the other bet that you have in this,
section another debutante for a new, Team Jose soriano debuting
for The Blue jays. Today you like his over fourteen
and a half outs at about minus one sixty. Five
after The Blue jays bleue a save in the ninth
inning yesterday and ended up losing that game in extra.
(12:29):
Inning So soriano to complete five innings over fourteen and
a half outs at minus one sixty, four what's your
price target?
Speaker 4 (12:35):
There how deep do you expect him to?
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Go, yeah SO i was kind of surprised to see this.
Line It's i'm guessing it's maybe because it's been so
long Since soriano has. Pitched but it's not like he you,
know missed time because of injury or. Anything it was
because of the trade. Deadline so he should still be,
fresh he should still be stretched. Out i'm projecting a
(12:58):
little over sixteen outs, here about a seventy five percent
chance that he completes five. Innings the matchup's tough Against,
philly BUT i mean this is still a really good
pitcher that has had no problem getting to five innings
for the most part this. Year and so you, know
even though we really have to pay for this, one
minus won sixty four, CAESARS i think is our best
odds on the. Board i'm fine going down to minus
(13:19):
two hundred or so, because LIKE i, said it's like
a seventy five percent chance that he gets.
Speaker 4 (13:23):
There, yeah very.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
Surprised to see at fourteen and a half hung for,
him would have expected at worst a fifteen and a.
Half fourteen and a half completing five innings For soriano
not a particularly tall task for a guy who keeps
the ball on the ground and has a much better
defense playing behind him now than he did. Previously so
a major defensive upgrade For Jose soriano. TODAY i like
that bet From derek quite a. Bit let's move on
(13:45):
to his one star, bets his forty grade bets for.
Today this is a little bit more difficult than a
pitcher to expect to pitch five. Innings George, klassen who
has not pitched well this, year over fourteen and a
half outs at minus one eighteen for The La ange
as they take on The Miami marlins In. Miami The
marlins coming off of a late ending last night and
(14:06):
having to travel after a rain delay In, atlanta so
hopefully the offense For derek's, sake a little bit sleepy.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
TODAY i did show money line value on The.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
Angels had trouble pulling the, trigger considering this is now
the worst team in baseball by, record have nothing to
play for the rest of the. Way i'm going to
need a big edge in order to actually fire on
The angels in any of their, games BECAUSE i do
think the market is starting to steam a little bit
more aggressively against these bad. Teams i've noticed on a
day to day, basis the steam just coming sort of one,
way one way traffic against a lot of these bad.
(14:38):
Teams The angels saw at the past couple. Days they
ended up winning yesterday Against. Baltimore you're taking class in
over fourteen and a half outs at minus one a.
Team what's your price target? There and what did you
see in this?
Speaker 4 (14:48):
Bet?
Speaker 1 (14:50):
Yeah so class in minus one. Eighteen there's also a
minus one twenty five that at a DraftKings the one.
Eighteen the thing is At Bette rivers AND i like
it down to minus one forty. Five this is another
one Like, sorieano where five innings is just not a
super hard target to, hit and we're not even really
having to pay so much for this. One. Obviously klausen
(15:10):
is not the same guy That soriano. Is he's not
a good. Pitcher the BAD x has him with a
PROJECTED era of nearly five going, forward but it is
a pretty good. Matchup he's going into a pitcher's park In,
miami facing a below Average miami, offense and even though
he's not very, good he has been allowed to throw
a lot of, pitches especially at TRIPA a this. Year you,
(15:32):
know earlier in the year in the, majors he only
threw you, KNOW i think seventy or so pitches in
his couple of, starts but it was early in the
year he was still being stretched. Out his last five
starts in the, minors he's been able to go over
ninety pitches in two of. Them he went over one.
Hundred his LAST i think eight or, nine he's gone
over eighty five. Pitches so he's a guy, who assuming
he's not getting lit, up is capable of, going you,
(15:55):
know ninety ninety five pitches here and he only has
to complete five. Innings SO i like this.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
One, yeah to my point about The angels having nothing
to play for guys Like George, glass and they can
just let go to their full pitch count and it.
Start like you, said as long as he's not throwing
thirty pitch, innings as long as he's not giving up six,
runs eight, runs they're just gonna leave him in there
and let him get the. Innings they don't want to
exhaust their, boltpen arms down the, stretcher and they want
to like guys like this get work so interesting, Bet
(16:22):
i'm classing over fourteen and a half outs to complete
five innings for. Today you've got two more bets, Here
derek one home run, prop one stolen base, prop both.
Speaker 4 (16:32):
At nice juicy long.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
Odds let's start with the dinger, Prop Austin wells To
homer over half a home run at plus seven hundred.
Tonight what do you like in terms of the matchup
or the projection?
Speaker 4 (16:42):
Here and? Where do you like? That down?
Speaker 1 (16:44):
To, yeah plus seven hundred At. Fanatics there's also a
plus six thirty At. FanDuel i like it down to
plus five ninety. Five this is just more of a
math play than anything, else like facing a pitcher In
Tyler malay who is really nothing, special projecting a bet
a sixteen percent chance Of wells getting there, today so
(17:04):
we're getting some solid enough value on.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
This and then Finally Brendan donovan to steal the base
at twenty nine to. ONE i don't know If i've
ever seen you give out a bet that, Big, derek
at least on this. Show twenty nine to one For
Brendan donoman to steal a, base not too long off
of injury for, him but aligned with The mariners bet
THAT i have for. Tonight is this something specific To
(17:27):
Drew rasmussen and his ability to hold? Runners was it
just that numbers play what led you to this?
Speaker 1 (17:31):
One it's it's, BOTH i, mean it's it's definitely a math.
Play it's a it's a positive expected value play more
than anything, else because this only projects to win four
point seven percent of the, time but at plus plus
twenty nine, hundred it's it's a great. Bet so a
(17:52):
lot of this comes down, to like you, Said, Drew
Drew rasmussen very easy to steal on if you can
get on base against. Him Liam, hicks assuming he is
behind the, plate also a very easy catcher to steal.
On so it's a really good. MATCHUP i have this
projected as a ninety ninth percent tile matchup in terms
of stolen. Bases so if you look at every single
(18:13):
combination of starting pitcher and catchers on their teams right,
now only one percent of those combinations would be an
easier matchup to steal on than this. One so you,
Know it's a long, shot but it is definitely positive expected.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
Value rasmie's in past two years has permitted thirty six
deals on forty seven. Attempts that is a seventy six
and a half, percent but definitely not particularly adept at holding.
Runners he is good at keeping guys off base and
not providing them many opportunities to, steal but especially in
a low scoring. Game projected low scoring game total of.
(18:49):
Seven both excellent starting, pitchers all star caliber starting.
Speaker 4 (18:53):
Pitchers teams will certainly be.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
Looking for ways to manufacture, runs And donovan walks a
lot and is standing on first quite a, bit so hopefully
he's going to get an opportunity to run For derek.
Tonight i'm keeping mine on a couple of other bets
on the, board The guardians And White sox over after
The White sox extensive bullpen usage, YESTERDAY i think that
game over seven and a half has moved all the
(19:16):
way down from eight and a half to seven and a.
HALF i kind of have to buy back in now
that it's at seven and a, half But i'm probably
gonna wait till closer to game time to see umpires
BECAUSE i doubt that it goes back up to eight
now that it has moved a full run towards the
under a couple of other money.
Speaker 4 (19:33):
Lines i'm going to keep my eye on.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
Throughout the, day BUT i think that'll do it for
today's episode Of Payoff. Pitch thank you for tuning. In
if you'd like to tell some of the bets that
we discussed on today's, episode look for the Quick slip
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(19:56):
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thanks for listening to Pay Off Pitch Action, networks Major
League Baseball betting.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
Podcast we'd love pep all your bet. Today keep back
here on my.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Too put in this crowd on his. Feet what a
trivia no one watched toa
What's that frying? A tight ball? No crying, and this
game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
In the up springs. Stop, bring Josh the bit out
of signed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Castiano, so
it will be a home run.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Wow. Hello, dude, coming on, you talk about a roll
of the dice. This is it. Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Hello and welcome to Payoff Pitch Action Networks, Major League
Baseball Betting Podcast. I'm joined today by Derek Carty to
help you break down a fifteen game slate for Friday,
August seventh. We're gonna give you our eighty grade bets,
sixty gray bets, forty grade bets, and let you out
of here as quickly as we can. All games are
to the lights tonight. No Cubs Friday afternoon home game,
(00:56):
they're on the road in Kansas City. We're going to
start off talk about the red hot Boston Red Sox,
who just cannot seem to lose. A's at Red Sox tonight.
We've got three bets on this game.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
I've won.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Derek has two. Derek's got a couple of pitcher props here.
First of the two, targeting Jack Perkins, a starter under
five and a half hits aloud at plus one point fifteen. Derek,
you like this to about minus one point eighty currently
minus one thirty at Caesars so still a little room.
Not as good of a number as what you were
(01:30):
able to take initially. But what did you see in
terms of this prop? Where do you project this and
what do you uh, We're you know, taking a stance
against the Red Sox offense A little bit gutsy at
this point, especially a team that puts the ball and
play a ton. I saw a joke tweet this morning,
actually that the Red Sox have a five thirty eight
Babbitt thrudders in scoring position over the past month. It
(01:51):
is a joke, but it feels like that at this point.
Insane game last night between the Red Sox and White Sox.
But two props are here. First of two, Jack Perkins
under five and a half HiT's take away.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
Yeah, I'm projecting Perkins for four point seventy five hits here,
so about three quarters of a hit under the line.
If you can get it at the plus money at
hard Rock, that's great. If you can only get it
at you know, the minus minus one thirty or so
at Caesars or DraftKings or wherever else has it. I'm
okay with that too. This is more of a bet
(02:23):
against the Red Sox than it is on Perkins. Like
I don't think Perkins is necessarily anything great, but Boston
has been so hot right now that, like I think
the market is overreacting. You know, we know that hot
streaks really are not predictive of what's going to happen
in the future, and so if the market is going
(02:43):
to overreact to what Boston has been doing, I will
find a way to hit the other side of it.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Other prop in that game, Peyton totally under sevent hit
and a half outs at plus one forty. Do you
think the rub in this one is a little bit difficult?
I love totally. I bet the under in this game.
I'll get to that in a second. The Red Sox, though,
with that twelve million game last night, a lot of
their relievers I do have Marked is tired or at
least fatigued for tonight, so they may need a little
bit extra work from him today, but I still have
(03:12):
enough fresh arms that he may come out before the
sixth inning has ended. Also, a week in the A's
offense without Nick Kurtzon lineup, especially against left handed hitting
or left handed pitching rather but totally under seventeen and
a half outs a big number of plus one forty
Where do you like that downte and what you's here?
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Yeah, this one's a little scary because, like you said,
the A's offense right now is very watered down, is
very bad, but totally under seventeen and a half outs
plus one forty one at polymarket, and I like it
down to even money or so. I think it's a
good bet. It's more one that I'm trusting the projection
on than anything else. The projection is about sixteen and
(03:50):
a half out. It's about a fifty six percent chance
of going under here. So if it's anything close to
a coin flip and we're getting good plus money on it,
I'm gonna take it. It's more I think to do
with totally not really being allowed to go super deep
into games than anything else. He's more of like an
eighty five ninety pitch guy. Like you said, the bullpen
(04:11):
situation not ideal for him today. The matchup against the
A's is easy, but he is in a really tough
park at home. It is almost ninety degrees. There a
little bit of win. So given the projection, you know,
being close to a coin flip, I'm just gonna take it.
Hope for the best.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
Yeah, I bet the under nine in this game. I
like it down to nine at minus one twenty. It
has already moved off of that number though sitting at
eight and a half didn't matter yesterday bet the nine
moved down eight and a half, ended up getting thirteen
runs fifteen runs in that game, ridiculous game even before
it got to extra innings, but has moved off of
that number today. If you see a nine minus one
twenty pop up or an eight and a half at
(04:50):
even money, I would take it very high. In Peyton totally.
Still like the Red Sox bullpen rates as the top
two bullpen for me, even given the tired in his
factor today. The A's bullpen the main cons earn of
this game, one of my bottom five bullpens, but as
I said, their offense without Nick Kurtz and as Derek said,
a bit watered down at the moment, and especially against
left dand and pitching, I think they will struggle. First
(05:12):
money line back for me, the Braves Red hot Braves
about plus one forty down to plus one thirty. I
make them plus one to eighteen against the Yankees and
the Bronx tonight. Tyler Maley making his first start for
the Braves. Other guys who've made their first starts for
their new teams have gotten sheld, so hopefully Mally does
not fall intrough the same category tonight. Casey meis lit
up by the d Backs the other night. One of
(05:34):
the three, but yeah, the guy's new faces, new places
has not gone well thus far. Foster Griffin for the
Guardians yesterday as well, getting hit hard Max rad I
believe this is his second start back off of the
IL against the Braves offense that does project very well
against left handed pitching. Not only do the Braves of
the offense advantage for me, they also have the bullpen
(05:55):
edge as well. I'm not particularly high on this. Yankees
bullpen rate them right around league average. Have the Braves
even with some guys down and tired today, I still
have is my number eight bullpen Again, I make this
game about plus one to eighteen, even with the Yankees
having the starting pitching edge. Would bet Atlanta down two
plus one twenty seven. Second money line for me Rangers
(06:18):
minus one forty going up against the Baltimore Orioles. I
like that up to about minus one fifty. Make it
closer to minus one sixty. I can get it even
higher than that. Frankly, Shane boss is pitch better of late.
Still prefer Nate Eavaldi think the Red or I think
the Rays of just not the race. Think the Orioles
are just the five hundred team the rest of the way.
(06:38):
I think the Bread the Rangers about the same, but
I do give them the offensive advantage. Baltimore projects slightly
below average against rightheaded pitching. For me, I have the
Rangers about six points better, so eight points separating them
in terms of projected WRC plus. Prefer the Rangers defensively,
have the bullpens about the same. Again, I make the
Rangers minus one sixty. Would bet them up minus one
(07:00):
fifty I saw earlier in the sheet, Derek, I believe
you would have the Twins' first five money line. I
think they had switched starters the Debbie Matthews, So I
believe you've pivoted to Shane Drohan under seventeen and a
half outs at minus one oh two. What's your price
target on that game, and I correct that you pivoted
off of a Twins first five bet there.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Yeah, I pivoted off the Twins first five bet because
I was expecting Connor Prilip at first, and then yes,
he'd switch to Debbie Matthews. So I was like, Okay,
the projection doesn't like that nearly as much. So I'm
looking at the Drohan under Drohan under seventeen and a
half outs minus one o two at DraftKings Good down
to minus one fifty five or so. Drohan's a guy
(07:43):
that maybe I'm just wrong about, but I'm not buying him.
I know my projection system, the bad X is not
buying him as anything close to a three five era
pitcher like he's pitched so far. It hasn't projected for
a four point six' nine era going. FORWARD i just
don't see him striking out a a batter per inning
(08:05):
the way he's. Been his stuff plus number is. Average
his stuff numbers in my system the back cast are.
AVERAGE i just don't see him doing. It and he's
not a guy that they let go very, deep you,
know kind of like an eighty five ninety pitch, guy
similar to To peyton tole he's gone over this number
IN i think five straight games or something like, that
(08:29):
but he's closer to fifty to fifty on the, year
AND i JUST i think when the regression, hits he's
not going to be as, Efficient he's not going to
be able to go as deep and so so, YEAH
i have this projected as a sixty seven percent winner.
Today So i'm hoping for the best.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Number five starter in The brewers rotation now that they've Acquired.
Dustin may see If Kyle harrison able to get over
those cramps that he sustained in his last.
Speaker 4 (08:55):
Start derek just.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
Curious you Know, drohan a guy you're lower, on how
do you, feel but a guy Like Robert gass or
another lefty that The brewers have, developed you kind of
have like a similar opinion on him that you're a
little bit, lower you would, say than the.
Speaker 4 (09:08):
Market, uh, YEAH i.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
WOULD i don't Think gasser is a little. Lower not
as low AS i am On drohan relative to the,
market but a little. LOWER i THINK i Have gaser
with like a four to seven era going, forward and
he's pitched more like a four to four and a
half guy so. Far as opposed to like the three
and a half That johan's.
Speaker 3 (09:28):
Been, yeah The, brewers for whatever reason we still have
been able to figure. Out but for whatever, reason The
brewers keep performing better than expectations year in year. OUT
i bet them to win The division this, year but
did not expect them to be currently the number one
seed in The National. League, daughters by the, way currently
the number three seed in THE, nl just like last.
Year if the playoffs started, today The dodgers would not
get to buy both The brewers and The braves ahead of.
(09:50):
Them dodgers' third best record in The Big league so
worth keeping an eye on the playoff picture down the.
Stretch dodgers have some work to do to get a
buy and secure. It final moneyline bet for me before
we pivot To derek's remaining bets for, TODAY i like
The mariners at about minus one twenty are at about
minus one ten up to minus one twenty. Three Drew
(10:11):
raspies And Drew gilbert Or Logan gilbert one of the
best pitching matchups on the board for. Today seattle offense
projects about three points better in terms OF wrc plus
against right hand and pitching bullpens around the same number
nine versus number seven for, Me gilbert have two spots
better Than, rasmis and again they're about the same as.
Well so this essentially comes down to that slight lineup
(10:33):
edge for me On seattle, AGAIN i make them minus one,
thirty would bet them up to around minus one. Twenty,
Derek we're gonna pivot to your remaining sixty or eight
and forty grade bets in a, Second but, first don't
forget to sign up for Action pro for real time
pick alerts from experts Like Grant ney For Derek, cardy
myself and our entire action over. Team plus you can
access our pro projections powered By Sean kerner and our
(10:55):
predictive analytics. Team just go to actionwork dot com Slash
pro and get twenty dollars off the annual price with
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pro and use promo code pod twenty to get twenty
dollars off a year Of Action Pro pivoting to That
dodters game AS i alluded to against The Arizona, Diamondbacks
(11:17):
Roki sasaki going up Against Merril. Kelly roki's pitched a
little bit better of late, fastball getting some velocity spin,
Increasing but the D backs are among the toughest teams
to strike out in the sports second and strikeout rate
coming into, today you Like roki to go under four
and a half strikeouts at plus one twenty.
Speaker 4 (11:38):
Six where do you'd project this number and where do
you like that?
Speaker 1 (11:40):
To, Yeah i'm Projecting roki for four point four strikeouts.
Here so if we're going to get the plus one
twenty six at, DraftKings i think that's. FINE i like
it down to about even money or SO i project
this as about a fifty five percent, Winner so even,
money you're still going to, get you, know some solid.
Value like you, Said zona is a really tough team
(12:01):
to strike, out one of the lowest strikeout right teams
in the, league and SO i think that's what's driving
this projection more than anything.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Else and then the other bet that you have in this,
section another debutante for a new, Team Jose soriano debuting
for The Blue jays. Today you like his over fourteen
and a half outs at about minus one sixty. Five
after The Blue jays bleue a save in the ninth
inning yesterday and ended up losing that game in extra.
(12:29):
Inning So soriano to complete five innings over fourteen and
a half outs at minus one sixty, four what's your
price target?
Speaker 4 (12:35):
There how deep do you expect him to?
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Go, yeah SO i was kind of surprised to see this.
Line It's i'm guessing it's maybe because it's been so
long Since soriano has. Pitched but it's not like he you,
know missed time because of injury or. Anything it was
because of the trade. Deadline so he should still be,
fresh he should still be stretched. Out i'm projecting a
(12:58):
little over sixteen outs, here about a seventy five percent
chance that he completes five. Innings the matchup's tough Against,
philly BUT i mean this is still a really good
pitcher that has had no problem getting to five innings
for the most part this. Year and so you, know
even though we really have to pay for this, one
minus won sixty four, CAESARS i think is our best
odds on the. Board i'm fine going down to minus
(13:19):
two hundred or so, because LIKE i, said it's like
a seventy five percent chance that he gets.
Speaker 4 (13:23):
There, yeah very.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
Surprised to see at fourteen and a half hung for,
him would have expected at worst a fifteen and a.
Half fourteen and a half completing five innings For soriano
not a particularly tall task for a guy who keeps
the ball on the ground and has a much better
defense playing behind him now than he did. Previously so
a major defensive upgrade For Jose soriano. TODAY i like
that bet From derek quite a. Bit let's move on
(13:45):
to his one star, bets his forty grade bets for.
Today this is a little bit more difficult than a
pitcher to expect to pitch five. Innings George, klassen who
has not pitched well this, year over fourteen and a
half outs at minus one eighteen for The La ange
as they take on The Miami marlins In. Miami The
marlins coming off of a late ending last night and
(14:06):
having to travel after a rain delay In, atlanta so
hopefully the offense For derek's, sake a little bit sleepy.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
TODAY i did show money line value on The.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
Angels had trouble pulling the, trigger considering this is now
the worst team in baseball by, record have nothing to
play for the rest of the. Way i'm going to
need a big edge in order to actually fire on
The angels in any of their, games BECAUSE i do
think the market is starting to steam a little bit
more aggressively against these bad. Teams i've noticed on a
day to day, basis the steam just coming sort of one,
way one way traffic against a lot of these bad.
(14:38):
Teams The angels saw at the past couple. Days they
ended up winning yesterday Against. Baltimore you're taking class in
over fourteen and a half outs at minus one a.
Team what's your price target? There and what did you
see in this?
Speaker 4 (14:48):
Bet?
Speaker 1 (14:50):
Yeah so class in minus one. Eighteen there's also a
minus one twenty five that at a DraftKings the one.
Eighteen the thing is At Bette rivers AND i like
it down to minus one forty. Five this is another
one Like, sorieano where five innings is just not a
super hard target to, hit and we're not even really
having to pay so much for this. One. Obviously klausen
(15:10):
is not the same guy That soriano. Is he's not
a good. Pitcher the BAD x has him with a
PROJECTED era of nearly five going, forward but it is
a pretty good. Matchup he's going into a pitcher's park In,
miami facing a below Average miami, offense and even though
he's not very, good he has been allowed to throw
a lot of, pitches especially at TRIPA a this. Year you,
(15:32):
know earlier in the year in the, majors he only
threw you, KNOW i think seventy or so pitches in
his couple of, starts but it was early in the
year he was still being stretched. Out his last five
starts in the, minors he's been able to go over
ninety pitches in two of. Them he went over one.
Hundred his LAST i think eight or, nine he's gone
over eighty five. Pitches so he's a guy, who assuming
he's not getting lit, up is capable of, going you,
(15:55):
know ninety ninety five pitches here and he only has
to complete five. Innings SO i like this.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
One, yeah to my point about The angels having nothing
to play for guys Like George, glass and they can
just let go to their full pitch count and it.
Start like you, said as long as he's not throwing
thirty pitch, innings as long as he's not giving up six,
runs eight, runs they're just gonna leave him in there
and let him get the. Innings they don't want to
exhaust their, boltpen arms down the, stretcher and they want
to like guys like this get work so interesting, Bet
(16:22):
i'm classing over fourteen and a half outs to complete
five innings for. Today you've got two more bets, Here
derek one home run, prop one stolen base, prop both.
Speaker 4 (16:32):
At nice juicy long.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
Odds let's start with the dinger, Prop Austin wells To
homer over half a home run at plus seven hundred.
Tonight what do you like in terms of the matchup
or the projection?
Speaker 4 (16:42):
Here and? Where do you like? That down?
Speaker 1 (16:44):
To, yeah plus seven hundred At. Fanatics there's also a
plus six thirty At. FanDuel i like it down to
plus five ninety. Five this is just more of a
math play than anything, else like facing a pitcher In
Tyler malay who is really nothing, special projecting a bet
a sixteen percent chance Of wells getting there, today so
(17:04):
we're getting some solid enough value on.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
This and then Finally Brendan donovan to steal the base
at twenty nine to. ONE i don't know If i've
ever seen you give out a bet that, Big, derek
at least on this. Show twenty nine to one For
Brendan donoman to steal a, base not too long off
of injury for, him but aligned with The mariners bet
THAT i have for. Tonight is this something specific To
(17:27):
Drew rasmussen and his ability to hold? Runners was it
just that numbers play what led you to this?
Speaker 1 (17:31):
One it's it's, BOTH i, mean it's it's definitely a math.
Play it's a it's a positive expected value play more
than anything, else because this only projects to win four
point seven percent of the, time but at plus plus
twenty nine, hundred it's it's a great. Bet so a
(17:52):
lot of this comes down, to like you, Said, Drew
Drew rasmussen very easy to steal on if you can
get on base against. Him Liam, hicks assuming he is
behind the, plate also a very easy catcher to steal.
On so it's a really good. MATCHUP i have this
projected as a ninety ninth percent tile matchup in terms
of stolen. Bases so if you look at every single
(18:13):
combination of starting pitcher and catchers on their teams right,
now only one percent of those combinations would be an
easier matchup to steal on than this. One so you,
Know it's a long, shot but it is definitely positive expected.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
Value rasmie's in past two years has permitted thirty six
deals on forty seven. Attempts that is a seventy six
and a half, percent but definitely not particularly adept at holding.
Runners he is good at keeping guys off base and
not providing them many opportunities to, steal but especially in
a low scoring. Game projected low scoring game total of.
(18:49):
Seven both excellent starting, pitchers all star caliber starting.
Speaker 4 (18:53):
Pitchers teams will certainly be.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
Looking for ways to manufacture, runs And donovan walks a
lot and is standing on first quite a, bit so hopefully
he's going to get an opportunity to run For derek.
Tonight i'm keeping mine on a couple of other bets
on the, board The guardians And White sox over after
The White sox extensive bullpen usage, YESTERDAY i think that
game over seven and a half has moved all the
(19:16):
way down from eight and a half to seven and a.
HALF i kind of have to buy back in now
that it's at seven and a, half But i'm probably
gonna wait till closer to game time to see umpires
BECAUSE i doubt that it goes back up to eight
now that it has moved a full run towards the
under a couple of other money.
Speaker 4 (19:33):
Lines i'm going to keep my eye on.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
Throughout the, day BUT i think that'll do it for
today's episode Of Payoff. Pitch thank you for tuning. In
if you'd like to tell some of the bets that
we discussed on today's, episode look for the Quick slip
link in the episode. Description don't forget to download the
free award Winning action Work gap and leave us that
five star rating and review wherever you listen to the
podcast for a chance to win some action. Swag check
out OUR Ai quick slipot on. X just Tag playbook
(19:56):
at playbook and tell to grab whatever bets you're looking
for and it'll create a quick slip for you in
a matter of. Seconds For Derek, Cardy I'm Sean. Zarulo
thanks for listening to Pay Off Pitch Action, networks Major
League Baseball betting.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
Podcast we'd love pep all your bet. Today keep back
here on my.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Too put in this crowd on his. Feet what a
trivia no one watched toa
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