August 3, 2026 • 32 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch and Sean Zerillo break down everything you need to know as the MLB trade deadline wraps up. The guys react to the biggest moves around the league, discuss which contenders and sellers improved the most, and explain how the deadline reshapes the betting landscape for the rest of the season, including division races, playoff futures, and the World Series market.
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1 - BEST BETS
12 - TRADE DEADLINE/FUTURES
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
No crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
The wind up.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
It is Springs offering Josh the bit out signed.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliffield by Casianos. It
will be a home run.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And hello to time you talk about a roll of
the dice.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch. Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Monday, August third. I'm calling Wichert's joined as
usual by Action Network Senior MLB analyst Sean Zarillo. It
is an awkward Monday for us. This is not going
to be your typical episode because as we are recording,
we are in the middle of trade deadline madness, just
(00:56):
as we expected to be the case. If you're watching
on YouTube live, welcome. If you're listening to the podcast,
we're doing this at about ten am Eastern, so trades
are happening. Trades could be happening while we're recording. Right
before we hopped on, Luisa Rice got traded to the Phillies,
Jose Soriano to the Blue Jays. So we're gonna talk.
(01:18):
We're gonna talk Monday bets, but it might be a
little weird we have to keep in mind our thoughts
on these games might change over the next eight hours,
because some of these rosters are going to change for
some teams more than others. We talked about this on
Friday's episode Very Good Day. To use the listed picture
option when you're betting money lines. For those not familiar,
(01:42):
when you're betting a game in your sports book, you know,
the first thing that pops up, you see the total
and the money line price. There is also a listed
picture option where essentially it lists who the projected starting
pitchers are for those games, but the bet voids if
those both of those projected starting pitchers do not end
(02:04):
up starting. So if there's a late scratch or whatever,
your bet voids you don't have to worry about it.
We saw that happen over the weekend as we were
recording Friday. We talked about it. Right after we hopped
off the recording. The Tiger scratched Casey Mace. That night,
we saw the Angels scratch Jose Soriano. I think there's
been a couple other instances of some late scratches of
starting pitchers. We'll see if that's the case today. I
(02:26):
don't know if anyone expected to pitch today is a
huge trade target. I guess. I mean there's always chatter about,
like Michael King, Michael Lorenzen for the Rockies, if you
want to go there. Logan Web is starting for the
Giants today. They said they're not trading him. I would
be surprised if that changes. So let's sean, you have
(02:47):
one bet down on our docks, So let's talk about
that first. Let's get that out of the way for
people who want to bet the Monday slate, and then
we can talk through some of these trades. Obviously the
Scooble trade the big headline. If anything else happens, we
can get there. But you have one trade or you
have one bet here that you particularly like on this
(03:07):
small eight game Monday slate, and it is in the
late game on the West Coast in Padres Diamondbacks tonight.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
Yeah, relatively important game and series between these two teams
or neck and neck in the NL Wild Card Rays
d Backs a game up coming into today. I've preferred
the d Backs all season, prefer them tonight. I make
the Dbacks about minus one thirty. I would bet them
up to minus one twenty. Michael King on paper. Historically
it seems like the slightly better starting pitcher I break
these guys about the same. In fact, the rolling metrics
(03:37):
and recent numbers kind of favor Brandon Fought Aside from
expected ray, I mean King is the slightly better strike
at minus walk ray but fought and slightly better called
shreklus slip ray but fought gives up less heart contact
has the lower expected ray of the rate them right
round the same as one another. Essentially, both league average
(03:59):
is slightly the le average starting pictures expected fit projections
somewhere between four to three and four to five for
both of these guys. D Backs lineup prefer them aggressively.
On the defensive end. They are my number one or
number two defensive team. Padres a average to below average
defensive team. Offensively, they're pretty comparable, they just get there
(04:22):
in different ways. Padres are a better power of the
two teams, kind of surprising. Podreys don't really hold the
power advantage over many teams, but they do over the
d Backs.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
The d Backs the much.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
Better contact team and maybe the best contact oriented team
in baseball. They just do that kind of like the
Blue Jays without the power or the swing decisions, but
against the picture like Michael King, who does kind of
need those called strikes and those whiffs in order to
get effectively through his starts. I mean, if you put
the bat on the ball against King, I think you
(04:52):
can get to him. But when he's going right, he's
getting a lot of whifts in his own. The d
Backs not the type of offense going to give them
give those to him relatively easily. They've also seen him
quite a bit, saw him on July eighth. I don't
believe the fodd has faced the Podreys in his recent sample. No,
(05:14):
not that that particularly matters for me, or not that
that's anything I put into the handicap, which just curious
to look. But bull pen's obviously an edge for the Podreys.
But that said, it is trade deadline day and we've
heard rumors about Adrian Morehone getting traded. Apparently they turned
down a will warrant for Adrian morrohone offer. Mason Miller
has been on the trade block. We'll see if they
end up flipping him to the Yankees or to another team.
(05:36):
Not sure if that's going to be the case. Padres
have gotten themselves back at the wild card hunt I
can't believe that my under eighty five and a half
win total for both they and the Astros are both
become sweats now. I can't believe my incredible bets. They
were incredible bets on the Astros to miss the playoffs
at plus one fifty five the Padres the miss of
plus one thirty five. I can't believe both of those
have become sweats now as well. Both of those closed
(05:59):
like minus one fifty to minus one to eighty before
the season started, and at various points of this season.
I think the Astros might have gotten to like minus
nine hundred to miss the playoffs when they were playing
their worst ball, and now they're on top.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Of the aos. So cannot believe the development.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
In terms of the team Pugers market at the moment,
but in terms of this game, specifically in terms of
Monday's slate d backs to minus one twenty the one
definitive edge that popped up. There are some other lingering edges.
Colin may have wanted to get into Cardinals and Yankees.
I show a slight edge on the over as of
right now, but Cam Schlitzer starting that game doesn't make
(06:35):
me love necessarily betting to the over. There, Maybe a
Yankees team total over against Michael McGreevy, because not only
as McGreevy beginning hit harder of late strike up minus
walk has been dipping, but also the Cardinals bullpen looks
pretty tired for today. Gas lim statics, Soriano I have
all marked out were fatigued, so they really only have
(06:56):
a few relievers behind McGreevy. They can even bring inly
pitches relatively deep in the start, but he got sheld
in his last doubting and was out of there before
the second inning. So maybe a team total over for
the Yankees, maybe the game total over if it drops
the seven and a half between the Yankees and Cardinals.
That looks like the other biggest edge as of right
now from a full game perspective, and then from a
(07:17):
first five perspective, it looks like the Rangers over Logan
Web in the Giants. The unfortunate part is that we
don't have his starting pitcher for the Rangers yet. I
assume they're going to go with an opener ahead of
Cal Quantrill, and I don't really love having any piece
of Cal Quantrill involved. If I'm taking a piece of
a money line. But if we are going to get
an opener at least for the first inning there it
(07:40):
does suggest that there would be value on the Rangers
first five line at about plus one eight I believe.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
Or that's where I have it projected.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
So probably plus one fifteen or better on Rangers first
five would be a price target i'd want. There's really
nothing else on this ach game slate that's really popping
up as significant value as right now, So keeping any
and the action of a gap, keep an eye on
the Bartole tool on action pro as lineups command is
umpires command, as I get updated whether these things will change,
(08:08):
and on today, daily, today, it's never really been more
important to keep an eye on confirmed lineups, as in
confirmed bullpens too, as these trades potentially come in.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Like I said, but.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
That Pottery's bullpen, we're already betting against it. But if
more Honor Millery at dealt it becomes an even more
secificant nutche.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
Yeah, Betting Rangers now might actually be a smart play
because if any roster is likely to change drastically over
the next eight hours, it might be the giant roster.
They're still weak.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
Let me check.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
I'm not sure if my projected lineup still has a
rise in there, and if it does, yeah, it does.
So if I remove you know, Luis a rise and
replace him with like average dude in the nine hole,
let me just let me just see what it moved.
The projection on the game too, So it was like
Rangers minus one oh eight before is what I made
(08:59):
it before for the trade. Now you make it like
minus one fifteen. So I'd consider betting into the Rangers now, yeah,
because I have to update that lineup. It hasn't been
updated yet. I'm not sure you know, lineup providers or
other people who have lineups pull into their models, theirs
may not have updated yet either, so the market probably
hasn't moved as a result of that trade. So I'd
probably take the Rangers up to about minus one tennis
(09:22):
on right now. I try to go full game as
both the verse five there a.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah, Caleb Killian went out for the Giants in that
Arias deal also, so you'd be taking them out of
the Giants bullpen.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
I'm not gonna be adding the Rangers.
Speaker 3 (09:33):
Like I said, this is very important day to pay
attention to lineups and confer bullpens and the thing is
like my lineups. People haven't gotten to that yet. So
if you are somebody who has lineups pulling automatically to
your model, just make sure that you are getting correct
information in there today. But also kind of account for
the fact that people may be slow to move today
just because of all the transactions in the move. So
if you're able to hone in on one specific transaction
(09:56):
that you think affects the lineup for today, kind of
filter out the other noise and maybe an edge.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
Yeah, it's a good day to pay attention to lineups.
It's also a good day to have the Action app.
To subscribe to action Pro, you get those instant alerts
from Sean Zurillo that good segue by me, clunky segue
by me before we get into a little bit more
trade talk, don't forget To sign up for Action Pro,
(10:23):
you get those real time picklers from Sean, from Grant Niffer,
from Derek Cardy, from our entire Action Network team. You
also get our prop projections powered by Sean Kerner and
our predictive analytics team. How do you do that? Actionnetwork
dot Com slash Pro promo code Pod twenty You get
twenty dollars off the annual price. Again, you get those
(10:46):
instant alerts from Sean Zillo as he's adding bets throughout
this crazy trade deadline day. You get our pro projections,
you get our prop projections for baseball for the upcoming
football season, et cetera. Action Network, dot Com, Slash Pro
Promo Code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off the annual price.
(11:10):
All right, Like we said, weird day, not a lot
of bets happening. It's gonna be a relatively short episode,
but we do want to talk a little bit about
what's going on with these trades. I do feel like
we could fall into a trap of talking about trek
Scuble and the what that means for baseball. I could
(11:30):
feel like I could talk about it for an hour
and a half. I was on social media late was
that Saturday night, Friday night when he got traded. The
discourse around it, around the lockout potential lockout is nauseating.
We can talk about that as much as you want,
but I'm more curious. I think our audience is probably
(11:53):
more curious just in talking about what this does for
the rest of the twenty twenty six season. Any betting
potential that comes out of some of these deals. Obviously,
things are going to change over the next eight plus
hours as we get to the deadline. But I'm just
curious your thoughts on the scoobl trade. Breaking news. Scooble
(12:15):
makes the Dodgers better and I'm more likely to win
their third trade World Series. I don't think that that
is going to shock anyone, but that trade, any any
interesting takes on the futures market after that trade or
any of the other trades that have happened. Obviously, the
rotting corpse of Luis Castillo trying to be revitalized by
(12:37):
the White Sox, a lot of these other under the
radar trades. Kevin Gausman going to the Cubs. Any what
is your big takeaway so far or any any futures
thoughts that you might have from what we've seen so far.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Yeah, I like the fit for Lucia Rise with the Phillies.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
I'm not really sure where they're going to play him,
what they do with Bryson Stott moving him off with
second base, whether that kind of leaves out bom out
in the cold, uh, where they move Stout the shortstop
and try to put Tray Turner in the outfield, and
so there's a lot of kind of moving parts for
the Phillies. But in terms of the offensive fit, Getting
a guy who makes so much contact, who can actually
drive runners in instead of swinging over the top of
(13:13):
a breaking ball, which the Phillies have just done postseason
after postseason, I think certainly changes the dynamic of their
offense a little bit.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
So I like to fit there. You know.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
My overall take in terms of like the Tarrek Schoopel
thing from a team futures perspective is is this a
ing theory moment? Is Tarrek schooglad a a dealt? And
then the Tigers. The Tigers have scored like ten runs
per game every game over the past week. Their offense
finally feels like it's clicked in.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
They've played like six hundred ball since the beginning of
June or something like that.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
You know, they've been one of the best teams in
baseball since the beginning of June. They have I think
they have the third or fourth best record in baseball
since the beginning of June. I've maintained that they're having
the opposite season that they had last year. And even
with the Tarrek school trade. You know you're just gonna
replace Trek Scoogle, presumably with River Ryan. River Ryan's gonna
give you some effective starts down the stretcher. They really
over a forty game sample or whatever is left? Are
(14:02):
they really that much worse of a team downgrading from
schoobl to River Ryan.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Over forty games? Forty games? I really think so? I mean,
what is what is there? Really?
Speaker 2 (14:11):
What?
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Like?
Speaker 3 (14:12):
What decreased their win totals so drastically? Did they lose
a win and a half off of their projected win total?
Okay over a forty game span, I'm not even sure
they want that much off of it. So right now,
the Tigers are twelve to one to win the Al Central.
I think they're within five games. They're playing their best
ball of the season. They're also plus five fifty to
make the playoffs in a very weak Ale playoff field.
(14:34):
I make those plus six seventy and plus three fifty
five respectively. If you don't have a Tiger's ticket, I
think this could be a good chime to potentially jump
in even after the school trade. Now wait to see
what else they potentially deal away today if they end
up dealing away guys from the bullpen like a Tyler Holton.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
There's then you want to be a little bit more careful.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
But I think Torres could be on the move both.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
But like if they don't, if they don't deal those guys,
I still think they're in the mix. So uh, Terrek Schoobel,
from a PR perspective, what an asshole like the tv
USA Baseball stuff the Dodgers like making it known that
he wants to sign.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
With the Dodgers before the trade.
Speaker 3 (15:14):
That way, it decreases the leverage for all the other teams,
you know, in terms of making offers, just like I
don't think any player has handled their PR worse this
year than he has. But yeah, from a from a
team futures perspective, From a betting perspective, I would kind
of zag and I would buy in on the Tigers
at this point. I already have futures, like there's really
(15:34):
no point in me reinvesting. But if you don't have futures,
I think the Tigers are a good purchase right now. Obviously,
I've been kind of consistent about my Mariners love all season.
I just don't think they've played their best ball. They
traded away Luke Raley today, which I'm actually happy about
because if I had to watch Luke Rayley play another
inning of.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
You no, no, no, I'm sorry, Luke Rayley. Luke Raley didn't
get traded us. The Mets traded Brooks Raley.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Brooks apologies. The Mariners have.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
The only trade the Mariners have made so far, I
think is Castillo, and they brought back Sir Anthony Domingos now,
and that was way overdue.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
They had tried to cater to the Castillo like getting
innings and starting for way too long this year and
kind of messing up the rest of their rotation. I'm
curious if the Mariners are gonna trade George Kirby or
something today and then bring up Kate Anderson, because they
have a plethora of pitching on you know, adding a
bat for Kirby and then bringing up Anderson would just
make them a better team. So I'm really curious to
(16:31):
see what Seattle does right now. I make them plus
one seventy to win the West, you can get as
high as plus t thirty five. I make them minus
one of five to make the playoffs. You can get
as high as plus one eighteen so I would consider
betting both Mariners and Tiger's futures right now during the
trade deadline. After the trade doat on ends. Just keep
an eye throughout the day. Those are my two biggest
divisional edges, as I mentioned with the Potterys and the
(16:52):
Potterys d back section continue to dislike this team. I
make them about minus two thirty to miss the playoffs.
You can get them at minus one fifty currently, so
that's more than a ten percent edge on their miss
the playoff market Seattle I mentioned to make Tigers I
mentioned to make those are really the three teams who
are highlighting from a future's perspective pre deadline, the loan
(17:16):
team from a world series perspective, who will see what
they do today. I make the raise about plus thirteen hundred.
You can get them as high as sixteen to one.
I would also consider their al West odds or their
part apologies. They're American League Pennant odds as well. They
maintained they're going to add they haven't added really anything yet.
They uh, what was it? The Freddy Peralta trade with
(17:37):
the Mets was their loan move. Thus far rais Yeah,
I'd like to see them ad more before I consider
investing in Ray's futures. But yeah, the Yankees fade maintains
in terms of like a playoff perspective and a Pennant perspective.
I don't think even if Aaron Judge comes back, he's
going to be at one hundred percent and they're going
to have to get through a wildcard round most likely
(17:59):
two unless they add some significant pieces today. So raise Mariners,
Ale futures Tigers as well, though more from a divisional
and make the playoffs perspective. Padras miss the playoffs in
the NL. The one thing that really stands out that's
kind of where I'm sitting for a team futures perspective today.
Just very briefly on player futures. I make Otani minus
(18:19):
one fifty for NL MVP. You can currently get minus
one forty, so he's starting to come back into the
value range. I make McGonagall minus three hundred for AL rookie,
you can get minus two seventy five. And then the
the NL Rookie of Year debate continues on between JJ
Weatherholt and Sala Stewart. I only make Stuart five percent.
I do my biggest no bid for any team future
(18:41):
or player future on the board. I know people are
going to completely disagree with that. He's going to finish
with one fewer war than Noel McClain. Forget JJ Weatherholt
doubling him up. He's going to finish behind Nolan McLain.
I know the offensive stats look great. I trust the
voters and the park adjustment stuff and the recent history
of wins above replacement to give it to weather Holt
(19:03):
right now, and as long as he kind of continues
on the path he's on, he should have a pretty
comfortable war lead at the end of the season. Despite
the fact that Sal Stewart is generating so many RBI
and has been a phenomenal letter I do think the
war total is going to work really hard against him
when it ultimately comes down to it. So Weatherholt not
showing as an edge, but I do think he should
(19:23):
be the favorite to make him sixty percent minus one
to fifty.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
In terms of the Phillies and Arise. Some reports coming
out as we are recording here, it sounds like there
is a possibility they could move Alec Baum before the
trade deadline boom bomb. But the other possibility, which Bob
Nightingale of USA Today says is going to happen, which
take with as big of a grain of salt as
(19:47):
you are inclined to take with a Bob Nightingale report.
He says that and Matt Gelib of the Athletic, to
be fair, floated this as an option. Bob says, it's
actually happening. Arises playing second base. Arise essentially said, I'm
a second baseman. The Phillies knew that there. They're gonna
play at second base. Stot to third base, Boom to
(20:12):
first base, Bryce Harper back to right field.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
Bryce Harper said recently he was willing to move back
to right field. Don't know what that defense is going
to look like out there at this stage in his career.
You also have to deal with Bohm's disappointing bat now
playing first base, having less utility there, less defensive value,
being a negative bat first baseman. Arise, his defensive stats
(20:42):
have been incredible this year at second base, after a
career of being a a minus defender. Washington, Yes, it'll
be interesting to see if see if those games continue,
It'll be interesting to see how Stott's glove fairs at
third base. There's gonna be a lot of questions about
I guess how how you grade out the Phillies defensively.
(21:03):
If this is actually what they moved, it can be
a lot of uncertainty there. But that's what it looks
like is going to happen again. Matt Gell floated that
as an option. Bob Nightingale says it's going to happen.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
Uh oh.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
John Hayman is saying now as well.
Speaker 3 (21:19):
Yeah, Philly is already last thirtieth in defensive run saved
minus forty six on the season.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
The next closest team is the Twins.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
At minus thirty five, and then after that it jumps
up to the Reds at minus sixteen.
Speaker 1 (21:30):
So that's how much worse.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
The Phillies are defensively than every other team In the
only position that has returned positive value two positions catcher
plus three and centerfield plus four. Actually right field plus
three as well. So it's been up the middle, you know,
minus thirteen at shortstop, mostly Trey minus ten at second base,
which is surprising because Thought is typically a good defender.
Minus five at third base.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
Bomb.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
So yeah, the the infield defense has been absolutely horrendous.
It's a wonder that Chris Sanchez has pitched as well
as he had with those guys playing behind him.
Speaker 2 (21:59):
I think that Trey Turner is eventually going to move
to center field. However, I don't fault him or the
Phillies for waiting till the off season to do it.
With a player as important as Trey Turner, he's gonna
want like a full off season to prepare for a
move like that. But he's he's just not a defensive shortstop.
Defensively anymore, at the age of thirty.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
Three, he isn't.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
Yeah, and obviously he's still I mean, they're paying him
twenty seven million dollars a year for the next man
seven years after this. I had no idea that contract
was still Yeah, they his contract was through his age
forty season.
Speaker 1 (22:37):
I had no idea. That's one of the worst ones
in the sport.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
Yeah, so obviously a move is gonna happen for Turner.
But yeah, a lot of a lot of may it's possible.
The Phillies are just saying this because they still have
other moves in the works and they can't be like, oh, well,
we're going to trade Alec Bohm. So that's why this
move has happened, but they could still move move bom,
make some other moves like a move stop.
Speaker 3 (23:01):
I feel like we're moving on too quick from the
fact that Trey Turner has signed for another seven years
and like seven years and two hundred million dollars. That
I mean, he's already has a seven hundred oh ps.
He can't play shortstop like that is an albatross.
Speaker 1 (23:15):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Yeah for that that was that was surprising to pull
up the beer rough and realize that eleven years, three
hundred mil Uh.
Speaker 1 (23:24):
Yeah, I'm thy thirty three. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
I mean you you sign a contract like that, you
sign an eleven year contract with a player like TREDA Turner,
you know the back end of that contract is gonna
be bad. You just hope it is bad as late
as humanly possible.
Speaker 3 (23:39):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
He looks kind of cooked this year. We'll see if
that is true. If his bat, if his bat hangs on,
he has to move down the defensive spectrum, whatever, But
it's not looking good this year obviously. But yes, I
think that when you sign when the Philly signed Trey
Turner to an eleven year, three hundred million dollar contract
that takes him through you stage forty season, you're pretty
much factoring in that the last three or four years
(24:02):
of that contract are gonna be bad. You know that
when you sign that contract, you just hope it's not
the last seven years. But yeah, interesting stuff, nothing new
on the trade market as we talk here, it's gonna
be a lot of interesting stuff. We'll be you know,
we've got another episode tomorrow, so we'll be able to
have even more thoughts as we break through them the
(24:24):
Tuesday slate, but we'll probably wrap things up here with
more deadline to come. It's gonna be glued to social
media all day seeing what trades, people make, what trades see.
If anything, I did want to ask you, I meant
to ask you this off the top of the show, Sean,
before we get out of here. Do you have a
favorite or most memorable trade deadline memory? I have memories
(24:48):
of like, oh I remember where I was, or my
team made a huge trade. Is there something that stands
out to you in terms of like a famous trade
deadline moment for Shanzillo.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
Yeah, the Mets trading Scott Kashmir to the Tampa Bay
Rays for Victor Zambrano. I believe, yeah, that was you
know that just kind of like encapsulates, encapsulates. My Mets
fandom and Mets fandom in general is like, why the
hell did we do that? And Kasmi went on and
I have a pretty good career, not the kind of
career that you would have hoped for somebody who was
(25:20):
drafted as highly as he was. But I mean, ultimately
I think it was a bad trade. He ended up
making a couple of All Star teams during the window
he was with the Rays. So never trade with the race,
I think is the number one lesson from that. But
if you're gonna trade with the Rays, get something back
better than Victor's Onmbrano.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
For Scott Kasmir, the one real memory I have. I
also have a short anecdote, but even even not being
a Cubs fan but growing up in northern Illinois, when
Nomar Garcia Para got traded to the Cubs, I just remember,
like that was one of those moments. You know, we're
talking about two thousand and four, no Twitter anything like that.
(25:58):
The trade deadline passed, uh and it was like another
half hour until it was announced that that Nomar trade
had happened, because you know, they got to it takes
a while for that information to kind of get out there,
and everyone's are the Red Sox is gonna trade Nomar?
The Red Sox is gonna trade Nomar? And from Chicago perspective,
it's you know, are the Cubs gonna trade for Nomar?
And the deadline passed and everyone like, oh to let down.
(26:20):
And then I don't even remember how the report came out,
but it was like all of a sudden breaking news
Garciapara to the Cubs and everyone's like holy shit, Like
that was like the biggest deadline moment to me where
everyone's just like it just like broke the world, Like
holy shit.
Speaker 3 (26:37):
All those moves the Red Sox made they got them
to the World Series, won the World Series. Orlando Cabrera
in Doug mccavich in No More Out. That was a
crazy tread online, super bold moves by THEO and it
ended up working out.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
So yeah, very memorable.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
I'd say, like my most positive Mets memory traded on
it has to be you on assessmentus, especially the oh
yeah ad where he got himself in the NL MVP
race over the final sixty game over that season, hit
seventeen homers in fifty seven games to close out that year,
So Saspa is probably my favorite trade Devon acquisition. But yeah,
I still think about the travesty of that Scott Kasmir
(27:11):
trade just like it. It's just, you know, evidence of
all the dumb moves that the Mets make over the years.
You can kind of encapsulate in that one trade that
was panned at the time. I never really got better after.
Speaker 2 (27:24):
It's funny because my White Sox specific memory also involves
the Mets, and it's the pre World Series White Sox
and the pre World Series super aggressive Kenny Williams trading
their recent first round pick, Royce Ring, who didn't end
up amounting to anything, to the Mets for I think
(27:45):
like a thirty seven, thirty eight year old Roberto Alomar.
Kenny gets his guy. They'd been after Roberto Alamar forever
and they trade. They literally make draft this guy in
the first round and then a month later trade him
to the Met for a guy who's about to turn forty,
a future Hall of Famer, but like obviously did not
(28:06):
work out well. But the thing that I was thinking
about the other day is when I was a kid,
I went to church camp for a week sleep away
camp every summer probably through middle school years, probably twelve thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, maybe,
But it just so happened that every year the week
I went was over the trade deadline. And the reason
(28:29):
this story is relevant is because of how old it
makes me feel. And you can probably relate to this
at least a little bit of the pre internet, pre
cell phone era. You would write letters to your parents,
writ and your parents would write you letters even though
you're gone for a week, because it's a big deal.
You're a little kid, your way at camp, and I
would my dad would literally clip out the newspaper of
(28:49):
all of the MLB trades from July thirty first and
send them to me in snail mail to me a
sleep away camp, like like an hour and a half away,
and I'm gone for like five days. But that is
how much of a baseball freak I was. That my
dad would go into the local newspaper the transaction section
on the agate page, and also like the little recap
(29:10):
summary in the local paper. So I could be at
camp on like a Thursday before going to swim in
the lake or whatever, and I could read about all
of the obscure little trade. It wasn't just the White Sox.
That's how much of a baseball frea you go. It
wasn't just the White Sox trade that cared about. I
just wanted to know about every baseball trade, and I
couldn't wait to get home to get them. Maybe that
(29:35):
was a sign of my future in journalism, my newspaper
based journalism, which is what I did before I got here.
But yeah, now we get these trades, We get this
information up to the second almost to an insane degree.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
And then we still get them thirty minutes after the
deadline anyway, right, Yes, but.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
Yeah, we'll see what happens rest of the day.
Speaker 1 (29:55):
Good stuff.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
Betting perspective, Only one official bet from Sean on the show,
Diamondback's money line. He said, you're probably gonna be adding
Rangers first five or money line or one or the other.
Speaker 1 (30:06):
Yeah, I might.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
I'm gonna keep an eye on the market. It does
look like the full game market ended up moving up.
You just want confirmation that it's not quantrol for the
first inning. If I'm gonna be adding a first five,
I don't want him from the jump. I'd rather have
like a clean inning from a reliever. But yeah, the
Giants are if anything going to continue subtracting today, So
I can't imagine that line is going to get any better.
(30:27):
Did the Giants really have many more guys to trade
tho aside.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
From Key, Well, if they can find takers for those
contracts of like Chapman, Adamas, Devers.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
I don't know. We'll see.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
They traded Mali yesterday to should mention. I think that
it's if it's not tied down. I mean, there's been
chatter about Eliot Ramos potential being a trade target. The
Giants finally broke their string of opening day left fielders
post bombs and then and and all Stars post bombs
(30:58):
outfield all Stars post bonds, and they finally got a
good one in Ramos, and so of course they're gonna
trade him. But yeah, interesting stuff, good stuff. We'll see
how the rest of the deadline shakes out, and we'll
get more bets tomorrow when Scooba will make his Dodger's
debut at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. That's gonna do
it for today's episode to payoff Pitch. Thanks so much
(31:19):
for tuning in. If you'd like to tail the couple
of bets from today's episode, look for the quick slip
links in the episode description. Again, don't forget to download
the free award winning Action Network app. Also, please leave
us a five star rating and review wherever you listen
to the podcast. Very much appreciated. Again, we'll be back tomorrow.
I think Grant is off again. I think it'll just
be me and Sean, but we'll have a lot to
talk about. I'm sure to recap this deadline as well
(31:41):
as get into the best bets for the Tuesday MLB
slate as we get down the stretch last seven eight
weeks of the regular season for Shanzrella. I'm Colin Richard.
Thanks so much for listening to Payoff Pitch Action Networks
Major League Baseball Betting podcast, and good luck with all
your bets.
Speaker 1 (32:08):
Putting his crowd on his feet what trigger No one
wants to leave.
No crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
The wind up.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
It is Springs offering Josh the bit out signed.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliffield by Casianos. It
will be a home run.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
And hello to time you talk about a roll of
the dice.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch. Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Monday, August third. I'm calling Wichert's joined as
usual by Action Network Senior MLB analyst Sean Zarillo. It
is an awkward Monday for us. This is not going
to be your typical episode because as we are recording,
we are in the middle of trade deadline madness, just
(00:56):
as we expected to be the case. If you're watching
on YouTube live, welcome. If you're listening to the podcast,
we're doing this at about ten am Eastern, so trades
are happening. Trades could be happening while we're recording. Right
before we hopped on, Luisa Rice got traded to the Phillies,
Jose Soriano to the Blue Jays. So we're gonna talk.
(01:18):
We're gonna talk Monday bets, but it might be a
little weird we have to keep in mind our thoughts
on these games might change over the next eight hours,
because some of these rosters are going to change for
some teams more than others. We talked about this on
Friday's episode Very Good Day. To use the listed picture
option when you're betting money lines. For those not familiar,
(01:42):
when you're betting a game in your sports book, you know,
the first thing that pops up, you see the total
and the money line price. There is also a listed
picture option where essentially it lists who the projected starting
pitchers are for those games, but the bet voids if
those both of those projected starting pitchers do not end
(02:04):
up starting. So if there's a late scratch or whatever,
your bet voids you don't have to worry about it.
We saw that happen over the weekend as we were
recording Friday. We talked about it. Right after we hopped
off the recording. The Tiger scratched Casey Mace. That night,
we saw the Angels scratch Jose Soriano. I think there's
been a couple other instances of some late scratches of
starting pitchers. We'll see if that's the case today. I
(02:26):
don't know if anyone expected to pitch today is a
huge trade target. I guess. I mean there's always chatter about,
like Michael King, Michael Lorenzen for the Rockies, if you
want to go there. Logan Web is starting for the
Giants today. They said they're not trading him. I would
be surprised if that changes. So let's sean, you have
(02:47):
one bet down on our docks, So let's talk about
that first. Let's get that out of the way for
people who want to bet the Monday slate, and then
we can talk through some of these trades. Obviously the
Scooble trade the big headline. If anything else happens, we
can get there. But you have one trade or you
have one bet here that you particularly like on this
(03:07):
small eight game Monday slate, and it is in the
late game on the West Coast in Padres Diamondbacks tonight.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
Yeah, relatively important game and series between these two teams
or neck and neck in the NL Wild Card Rays
d Backs a game up coming into today. I've preferred
the d Backs all season, prefer them tonight. I make
the Dbacks about minus one thirty. I would bet them
up to minus one twenty. Michael King on paper. Historically
it seems like the slightly better starting pitcher I break
these guys about the same. In fact, the rolling metrics
(03:37):
and recent numbers kind of favor Brandon Fought Aside from
expected ray, I mean King is the slightly better strike
at minus walk ray but fought and slightly better called
shreklus slip ray but fought gives up less heart contact
has the lower expected ray of the rate them right
round the same as one another. Essentially, both league average
(03:59):
is slightly the le average starting pictures expected fit projections
somewhere between four to three and four to five for
both of these guys. D Backs lineup prefer them aggressively.
On the defensive end. They are my number one or
number two defensive team. Padres a average to below average
defensive team. Offensively, they're pretty comparable, they just get there
(04:22):
in different ways. Padres are a better power of the
two teams, kind of surprising. Podreys don't really hold the
power advantage over many teams, but they do over the
d Backs.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
The d Backs the much.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
Better contact team and maybe the best contact oriented team
in baseball. They just do that kind of like the
Blue Jays without the power or the swing decisions, but
against the picture like Michael King, who does kind of
need those called strikes and those whiffs in order to
get effectively through his starts. I mean, if you put
the bat on the ball against King, I think you
(04:52):
can get to him. But when he's going right, he's
getting a lot of whifts in his own. The d
Backs not the type of offense going to give them
give those to him relatively easily. They've also seen him
quite a bit, saw him on July eighth. I don't
believe the fodd has faced the Podreys in his recent sample. No,
(05:14):
not that that particularly matters for me, or not that
that's anything I put into the handicap, which just curious
to look. But bull pen's obviously an edge for the Podreys.
But that said, it is trade deadline day and we've
heard rumors about Adrian Morehone getting traded. Apparently they turned
down a will warrant for Adrian morrohone offer. Mason Miller
has been on the trade block. We'll see if they
end up flipping him to the Yankees or to another team.
(05:36):
Not sure if that's going to be the case. Padres
have gotten themselves back at the wild card hunt I
can't believe that my under eighty five and a half
win total for both they and the Astros are both
become sweats now. I can't believe my incredible bets. They
were incredible bets on the Astros to miss the playoffs
at plus one fifty five the Padres the miss of
plus one thirty five. I can't believe both of those
have become sweats now as well. Both of those closed
(05:59):
like minus one fifty to minus one to eighty before
the season started, and at various points of this season.
I think the Astros might have gotten to like minus
nine hundred to miss the playoffs when they were playing
their worst ball, and now they're on top.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Of the aos. So cannot believe the development.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
In terms of the team Pugers market at the moment,
but in terms of this game, specifically in terms of
Monday's slate d backs to minus one twenty the one
definitive edge that popped up. There are some other lingering edges.
Colin may have wanted to get into Cardinals and Yankees.
I show a slight edge on the over as of
right now, but Cam Schlitzer starting that game doesn't make
(06:35):
me love necessarily betting to the over. There, Maybe a
Yankees team total over against Michael McGreevy, because not only
as McGreevy beginning hit harder of late strike up minus
walk has been dipping, but also the Cardinals bullpen looks
pretty tired for today. Gas lim statics, Soriano I have
all marked out were fatigued, so they really only have
(06:56):
a few relievers behind McGreevy. They can even bring inly
pitches relatively deep in the start, but he got sheld
in his last doubting and was out of there before
the second inning. So maybe a team total over for
the Yankees, maybe the game total over if it drops
the seven and a half between the Yankees and Cardinals.
That looks like the other biggest edge as of right
now from a full game perspective, and then from a
(07:17):
first five perspective, it looks like the Rangers over Logan
Web in the Giants. The unfortunate part is that we
don't have his starting pitcher for the Rangers yet. I
assume they're going to go with an opener ahead of
Cal Quantrill, and I don't really love having any piece
of Cal Quantrill involved. If I'm taking a piece of
a money line. But if we are going to get
an opener at least for the first inning there it
(07:40):
does suggest that there would be value on the Rangers
first five line at about plus one eight I believe.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
Or that's where I have it projected.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
So probably plus one fifteen or better on Rangers first
five would be a price target i'd want. There's really
nothing else on this ach game slate that's really popping
up as significant value as right now, So keeping any
and the action of a gap, keep an eye on
the Bartole tool on action pro as lineups command is
umpires command, as I get updated whether these things will change,
(08:08):
and on today, daily, today, it's never really been more
important to keep an eye on confirmed lineups, as in
confirmed bullpens too, as these trades potentially come in.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Like I said, but.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
That Pottery's bullpen, we're already betting against it. But if
more Honor Millery at dealt it becomes an even more
secificant nutche.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
Yeah, Betting Rangers now might actually be a smart play
because if any roster is likely to change drastically over
the next eight hours, it might be the giant roster.
They're still weak.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
Let me check.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
I'm not sure if my projected lineup still has a
rise in there, and if it does, yeah, it does.
So if I remove you know, Luis a rise and
replace him with like average dude in the nine hole,
let me just let me just see what it moved.
The projection on the game too, So it was like
Rangers minus one oh eight before is what I made
(08:59):
it before for the trade. Now you make it like
minus one fifteen. So I'd consider betting into the Rangers now, yeah,
because I have to update that lineup. It hasn't been
updated yet. I'm not sure you know, lineup providers or
other people who have lineups pull into their models, theirs
may not have updated yet either, so the market probably
hasn't moved as a result of that trade. So I'd
probably take the Rangers up to about minus one tennis
(09:22):
on right now. I try to go full game as
both the verse five there a.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah, Caleb Killian went out for the Giants in that
Arias deal also, so you'd be taking them out of
the Giants bullpen.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
I'm not gonna be adding the Rangers.
Speaker 3 (09:33):
Like I said, this is very important day to pay
attention to lineups and confer bullpens and the thing is
like my lineups. People haven't gotten to that yet. So
if you are somebody who has lineups pulling automatically to
your model, just make sure that you are getting correct
information in there today. But also kind of account for
the fact that people may be slow to move today
just because of all the transactions in the move. So
if you're able to hone in on one specific transaction
(09:56):
that you think affects the lineup for today, kind of
filter out the other noise and maybe an edge.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
Yeah, it's a good day to pay attention to lineups.
It's also a good day to have the Action app.
To subscribe to action Pro, you get those instant alerts
from Sean Zurillo that good segue by me, clunky segue
by me before we get into a little bit more
trade talk, don't forget To sign up for Action Pro,
(10:23):
you get those real time picklers from Sean, from Grant Niffer,
from Derek Cardy, from our entire Action Network team. You
also get our prop projections powered by Sean Kerner and
our predictive analytics team. How do you do that? Actionnetwork
dot Com slash Pro promo code Pod twenty You get
twenty dollars off the annual price. Again, you get those
(10:46):
instant alerts from Sean Zillo as he's adding bets throughout
this crazy trade deadline day. You get our pro projections,
you get our prop projections for baseball for the upcoming
football season, et cetera. Action Network, dot Com, Slash Pro
Promo Code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off the annual price.
(11:10):
All right, Like we said, weird day, not a lot
of bets happening. It's gonna be a relatively short episode,
but we do want to talk a little bit about
what's going on with these trades. I do feel like
we could fall into a trap of talking about trek
Scuble and the what that means for baseball. I could
(11:30):
feel like I could talk about it for an hour
and a half. I was on social media late was
that Saturday night, Friday night when he got traded. The
discourse around it, around the lockout potential lockout is nauseating.
We can talk about that as much as you want,
but I'm more curious. I think our audience is probably
(11:53):
more curious just in talking about what this does for
the rest of the twenty twenty six season. Any betting
potential that comes out of some of these deals. Obviously,
things are going to change over the next eight plus
hours as we get to the deadline. But I'm just
curious your thoughts on the scoobl trade. Breaking news. Scooble
(12:15):
makes the Dodgers better and I'm more likely to win
their third trade World Series. I don't think that that
is going to shock anyone, but that trade, any any
interesting takes on the futures market after that trade or
any of the other trades that have happened. Obviously, the
rotting corpse of Luis Castillo trying to be revitalized by
(12:37):
the White Sox, a lot of these other under the
radar trades. Kevin Gausman going to the Cubs. Any what
is your big takeaway so far or any any futures
thoughts that you might have from what we've seen so far.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Yeah, I like the fit for Lucia Rise with the Phillies.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
I'm not really sure where they're going to play him,
what they do with Bryson Stott moving him off with
second base, whether that kind of leaves out bom out
in the cold, uh, where they move Stout the shortstop
and try to put Tray Turner in the outfield, and
so there's a lot of kind of moving parts for
the Phillies. But in terms of the offensive fit, Getting
a guy who makes so much contact, who can actually
drive runners in instead of swinging over the top of
(13:13):
a breaking ball, which the Phillies have just done postseason
after postseason, I think certainly changes the dynamic of their
offense a little bit.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
So I like to fit there. You know.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
My overall take in terms of like the Tarrek Schoopel
thing from a team futures perspective is is this a
ing theory moment? Is Tarrek schooglad a a dealt? And
then the Tigers. The Tigers have scored like ten runs
per game every game over the past week. Their offense
finally feels like it's clicked in.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
They've played like six hundred ball since the beginning of
June or something like that.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
You know, they've been one of the best teams in
baseball since the beginning of June. They have I think
they have the third or fourth best record in baseball
since the beginning of June. I've maintained that they're having
the opposite season that they had last year. And even
with the Tarrek school trade. You know you're just gonna
replace Trek Scoogle, presumably with River Ryan. River Ryan's gonna
give you some effective starts down the stretcher. They really
over a forty game sample or whatever is left? Are
(14:02):
they really that much worse of a team downgrading from
schoobl to River Ryan.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Over forty games? Forty games? I really think so? I mean,
what is what is there? Really?
Speaker 2 (14:11):
What?
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Like?
Speaker 3 (14:12):
What decreased their win totals so drastically? Did they lose
a win and a half off of their projected win total?
Okay over a forty game span, I'm not even sure
they want that much off of it. So right now,
the Tigers are twelve to one to win the Al Central.
I think they're within five games. They're playing their best
ball of the season. They're also plus five fifty to
make the playoffs in a very weak Ale playoff field.
(14:34):
I make those plus six seventy and plus three fifty
five respectively. If you don't have a Tiger's ticket, I
think this could be a good chime to potentially jump
in even after the school trade. Now wait to see
what else they potentially deal away today if they end
up dealing away guys from the bullpen like a Tyler Holton.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
There's then you want to be a little bit more careful.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
But I think Torres could be on the move both.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
But like if they don't, if they don't deal those guys,
I still think they're in the mix. So uh, Terrek Schoobel,
from a PR perspective, what an asshole like the tv
USA Baseball stuff the Dodgers like making it known that
he wants to sign.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
With the Dodgers before the trade.
Speaker 3 (15:14):
That way, it decreases the leverage for all the other teams,
you know, in terms of making offers, just like I
don't think any player has handled their PR worse this
year than he has. But yeah, from a from a
team futures perspective, From a betting perspective, I would kind
of zag and I would buy in on the Tigers
at this point. I already have futures, like there's really
(15:34):
no point in me reinvesting. But if you don't have futures,
I think the Tigers are a good purchase right now. Obviously,
I've been kind of consistent about my Mariners love all season.
I just don't think they've played their best ball. They
traded away Luke Raley today, which I'm actually happy about
because if I had to watch Luke Rayley play another
inning of.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
You no, no, no, I'm sorry, Luke Rayley. Luke Raley didn't
get traded us. The Mets traded Brooks Raley.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Brooks apologies. The Mariners have.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
The only trade the Mariners have made so far, I
think is Castillo, and they brought back Sir Anthony Domingos now,
and that was way overdue.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
They had tried to cater to the Castillo like getting
innings and starting for way too long this year and
kind of messing up the rest of their rotation. I'm
curious if the Mariners are gonna trade George Kirby or
something today and then bring up Kate Anderson, because they
have a plethora of pitching on you know, adding a
bat for Kirby and then bringing up Anderson would just
make them a better team. So I'm really curious to
(16:31):
see what Seattle does right now. I make them plus
one seventy to win the West, you can get as
high as plus t thirty five. I make them minus
one of five to make the playoffs. You can get
as high as plus one eighteen so I would consider
betting both Mariners and Tiger's futures right now during the
trade deadline. After the trade doat on ends. Just keep
an eye throughout the day. Those are my two biggest
divisional edges, as I mentioned with the Potterys and the
(16:52):
Potterys d back section continue to dislike this team. I
make them about minus two thirty to miss the playoffs.
You can get them at minus one fifty currently, so
that's more than a ten percent edge on their miss
the playoff market Seattle I mentioned to make Tigers I
mentioned to make those are really the three teams who
are highlighting from a future's perspective pre deadline, the loan
(17:16):
team from a world series perspective, who will see what
they do today. I make the raise about plus thirteen hundred.
You can get them as high as sixteen to one.
I would also consider their al West odds or their
part apologies. They're American League Pennant odds as well. They
maintained they're going to add they haven't added really anything yet.
They uh, what was it? The Freddy Peralta trade with
(17:37):
the Mets was their loan move. Thus far rais Yeah,
I'd like to see them ad more before I consider
investing in Ray's futures. But yeah, the Yankees fade maintains
in terms of like a playoff perspective and a Pennant perspective.
I don't think even if Aaron Judge comes back, he's
going to be at one hundred percent and they're going
to have to get through a wildcard round most likely
(17:59):
two unless they add some significant pieces today. So raise Mariners,
Ale futures Tigers as well, though more from a divisional
and make the playoffs perspective. Padras miss the playoffs in
the NL. The one thing that really stands out that's
kind of where I'm sitting for a team futures perspective today.
Just very briefly on player futures. I make Otani minus
(18:19):
one fifty for NL MVP. You can currently get minus
one forty, so he's starting to come back into the
value range. I make McGonagall minus three hundred for AL rookie,
you can get minus two seventy five. And then the
the NL Rookie of Year debate continues on between JJ
Weatherholt and Sala Stewart. I only make Stuart five percent.
I do my biggest no bid for any team future
(18:41):
or player future on the board. I know people are
going to completely disagree with that. He's going to finish
with one fewer war than Noel McClain. Forget JJ Weatherholt
doubling him up. He's going to finish behind Nolan McLain.
I know the offensive stats look great. I trust the
voters and the park adjustment stuff and the recent history
of wins above replacement to give it to weather Holt
(19:03):
right now, and as long as he kind of continues
on the path he's on, he should have a pretty
comfortable war lead at the end of the season. Despite
the fact that Sal Stewart is generating so many RBI
and has been a phenomenal letter I do think the
war total is going to work really hard against him
when it ultimately comes down to it. So Weatherholt not
showing as an edge, but I do think he should
(19:23):
be the favorite to make him sixty percent minus one
to fifty.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
In terms of the Phillies and Arise. Some reports coming
out as we are recording here, it sounds like there
is a possibility they could move Alec Baum before the
trade deadline boom bomb. But the other possibility, which Bob
Nightingale of USA Today says is going to happen, which
take with as big of a grain of salt as
(19:47):
you are inclined to take with a Bob Nightingale report.
He says that and Matt Gelib of the Athletic, to
be fair, floated this as an option. Bob says, it's
actually happening. Arises playing second base. Arise essentially said, I'm
a second baseman. The Phillies knew that there. They're gonna
play at second base. Stot to third base, Boom to
(20:12):
first base, Bryce Harper back to right field.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
Bryce Harper said recently he was willing to move back
to right field. Don't know what that defense is going
to look like out there at this stage in his career.
You also have to deal with Bohm's disappointing bat now
playing first base, having less utility there, less defensive value,
being a negative bat first baseman. Arise, his defensive stats
(20:42):
have been incredible this year at second base, after a
career of being a a minus defender. Washington, Yes, it'll
be interesting to see if see if those games continue,
It'll be interesting to see how Stott's glove fairs at
third base. There's gonna be a lot of questions about
I guess how how you grade out the Phillies defensively.
(21:03):
If this is actually what they moved, it can be
a lot of uncertainty there. But that's what it looks
like is going to happen again. Matt Gell floated that
as an option. Bob Nightingale says it's going to happen.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
Uh oh.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
John Hayman is saying now as well.
Speaker 3 (21:19):
Yeah, Philly is already last thirtieth in defensive run saved
minus forty six on the season.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
The next closest team is the Twins.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
At minus thirty five, and then after that it jumps
up to the Reds at minus sixteen.
Speaker 1 (21:30):
So that's how much worse.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
The Phillies are defensively than every other team In the
only position that has returned positive value two positions catcher
plus three and centerfield plus four. Actually right field plus
three as well. So it's been up the middle, you know,
minus thirteen at shortstop, mostly Trey minus ten at second base,
which is surprising because Thought is typically a good defender.
Minus five at third base.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
Bomb.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
So yeah, the the infield defense has been absolutely horrendous.
It's a wonder that Chris Sanchez has pitched as well
as he had with those guys playing behind him.
Speaker 2 (21:59):
I think that Trey Turner is eventually going to move
to center field. However, I don't fault him or the
Phillies for waiting till the off season to do it.
With a player as important as Trey Turner, he's gonna
want like a full off season to prepare for a
move like that. But he's he's just not a defensive shortstop.
Defensively anymore, at the age of thirty.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
Three, he isn't.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
Yeah, and obviously he's still I mean, they're paying him
twenty seven million dollars a year for the next man
seven years after this. I had no idea that contract
was still Yeah, they his contract was through his age
forty season.
Speaker 1 (22:37):
I had no idea. That's one of the worst ones
in the sport.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
Yeah, so obviously a move is gonna happen for Turner.
But yeah, a lot of a lot of may it's possible.
The Phillies are just saying this because they still have
other moves in the works and they can't be like, oh, well,
we're going to trade Alec Bohm. So that's why this
move has happened, but they could still move move bom,
make some other moves like a move stop.
Speaker 3 (23:01):
I feel like we're moving on too quick from the
fact that Trey Turner has signed for another seven years
and like seven years and two hundred million dollars. That
I mean, he's already has a seven hundred oh ps.
He can't play shortstop like that is an albatross.
Speaker 1 (23:15):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Yeah for that that was that was surprising to pull
up the beer rough and realize that eleven years, three
hundred mil Uh.
Speaker 1 (23:24):
Yeah, I'm thy thirty three. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
I mean you you sign a contract like that, you
sign an eleven year contract with a player like TREDA Turner,
you know the back end of that contract is gonna
be bad. You just hope it is bad as late
as humanly possible.
Speaker 3 (23:39):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
He looks kind of cooked this year. We'll see if
that is true. If his bat, if his bat hangs on,
he has to move down the defensive spectrum, whatever, But
it's not looking good this year obviously. But yes, I
think that when you sign when the Philly signed Trey
Turner to an eleven year, three hundred million dollar contract
that takes him through you stage forty season, you're pretty
much factoring in that the last three or four years
(24:02):
of that contract are gonna be bad. You know that
when you sign that contract, you just hope it's not
the last seven years. But yeah, interesting stuff, nothing new
on the trade market as we talk here, it's gonna
be a lot of interesting stuff. We'll be you know,
we've got another episode tomorrow, so we'll be able to
have even more thoughts as we break through them the
(24:24):
Tuesday slate, but we'll probably wrap things up here with
more deadline to come. It's gonna be glued to social
media all day seeing what trades, people make, what trades see.
If anything, I did want to ask you, I meant
to ask you this off the top of the show, Sean,
before we get out of here. Do you have a
favorite or most memorable trade deadline memory? I have memories
(24:48):
of like, oh I remember where I was, or my
team made a huge trade. Is there something that stands
out to you in terms of like a famous trade
deadline moment for Shanzillo.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
Yeah, the Mets trading Scott Kashmir to the Tampa Bay
Rays for Victor Zambrano. I believe, yeah, that was you
know that just kind of like encapsulates, encapsulates. My Mets
fandom and Mets fandom in general is like, why the
hell did we do that? And Kasmi went on and
I have a pretty good career, not the kind of
career that you would have hoped for somebody who was
(25:20):
drafted as highly as he was. But I mean, ultimately
I think it was a bad trade. He ended up
making a couple of All Star teams during the window
he was with the Rays. So never trade with the race,
I think is the number one lesson from that. But
if you're gonna trade with the Rays, get something back
better than Victor's Onmbrano.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
For Scott Kasmir, the one real memory I have. I
also have a short anecdote, but even even not being
a Cubs fan but growing up in northern Illinois, when
Nomar Garcia Para got traded to the Cubs, I just remember,
like that was one of those moments. You know, we're
talking about two thousand and four, no Twitter anything like that.
(25:58):
The trade deadline passed, uh and it was like another
half hour until it was announced that that Nomar trade
had happened, because you know, they got to it takes
a while for that information to kind of get out there,
and everyone's are the Red Sox is gonna trade Nomar?
The Red Sox is gonna trade Nomar? And from Chicago perspective,
it's you know, are the Cubs gonna trade for Nomar?
And the deadline passed and everyone like, oh to let down.
(26:20):
And then I don't even remember how the report came out,
but it was like all of a sudden breaking news
Garciapara to the Cubs and everyone's like holy shit, Like
that was like the biggest deadline moment to me where
everyone's just like it just like broke the world, Like
holy shit.
Speaker 3 (26:37):
All those moves the Red Sox made they got them
to the World Series, won the World Series. Orlando Cabrera
in Doug mccavich in No More Out. That was a
crazy tread online, super bold moves by THEO and it
ended up working out.
Speaker 1 (26:48):
So yeah, very memorable.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
I'd say, like my most positive Mets memory traded on
it has to be you on assessmentus, especially the oh
yeah ad where he got himself in the NL MVP
race over the final sixty game over that season, hit
seventeen homers in fifty seven games to close out that year,
So Saspa is probably my favorite trade Devon acquisition. But yeah,
I still think about the travesty of that Scott Kasmir
(27:11):
trade just like it. It's just, you know, evidence of
all the dumb moves that the Mets make over the years.
You can kind of encapsulate in that one trade that
was panned at the time. I never really got better after.
Speaker 2 (27:24):
It's funny because my White Sox specific memory also involves
the Mets, and it's the pre World Series White Sox
and the pre World Series super aggressive Kenny Williams trading
their recent first round pick, Royce Ring, who didn't end
up amounting to anything, to the Mets for I think
(27:45):
like a thirty seven, thirty eight year old Roberto Alomar.
Kenny gets his guy. They'd been after Roberto Alamar forever
and they trade. They literally make draft this guy in
the first round and then a month later trade him
to the Met for a guy who's about to turn forty,
a future Hall of Famer, but like obviously did not
(28:06):
work out well. But the thing that I was thinking
about the other day is when I was a kid,
I went to church camp for a week sleep away
camp every summer probably through middle school years, probably twelve thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, maybe,
But it just so happened that every year the week
I went was over the trade deadline. And the reason
(28:29):
this story is relevant is because of how old it
makes me feel. And you can probably relate to this
at least a little bit of the pre internet, pre
cell phone era. You would write letters to your parents,
writ and your parents would write you letters even though
you're gone for a week, because it's a big deal.
You're a little kid, your way at camp, and I
would my dad would literally clip out the newspaper of
(28:49):
all of the MLB trades from July thirty first and
send them to me in snail mail to me a
sleep away camp, like like an hour and a half away,
and I'm gone for like five days. But that is
how much of a baseball freak I was. That my
dad would go into the local newspaper the transaction section
on the agate page, and also like the little recap
(29:10):
summary in the local paper. So I could be at
camp on like a Thursday before going to swim in
the lake or whatever, and I could read about all
of the obscure little trade. It wasn't just the White Sox.
That's how much of a baseball frea you go. It
wasn't just the White Sox trade that cared about. I
just wanted to know about every baseball trade, and I
couldn't wait to get home to get them. Maybe that
(29:35):
was a sign of my future in journalism, my newspaper
based journalism, which is what I did before I got here.
But yeah, now we get these trades, We get this
information up to the second almost to an insane degree.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
And then we still get them thirty minutes after the
deadline anyway, right, Yes, but.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
Yeah, we'll see what happens rest of the day.
Speaker 1 (29:55):
Good stuff.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
Betting perspective, Only one official bet from Sean on the show,
Diamondback's money line. He said, you're probably gonna be adding
Rangers first five or money line or one or the other.
Speaker 1 (30:06):
Yeah, I might.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
I'm gonna keep an eye on the market. It does
look like the full game market ended up moving up.
You just want confirmation that it's not quantrol for the
first inning. If I'm gonna be adding a first five,
I don't want him from the jump. I'd rather have
like a clean inning from a reliever. But yeah, the
Giants are if anything going to continue subtracting today, So
I can't imagine that line is going to get any better.
(30:27):
Did the Giants really have many more guys to trade
tho aside.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
From Key, Well, if they can find takers for those
contracts of like Chapman, Adamas, Devers.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
I don't know. We'll see.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
They traded Mali yesterday to should mention. I think that
it's if it's not tied down. I mean, there's been
chatter about Eliot Ramos potential being a trade target. The
Giants finally broke their string of opening day left fielders
post bombs and then and and all Stars post bombs
(30:58):
outfield all Stars post bonds, and they finally got a
good one in Ramos, and so of course they're gonna
trade him. But yeah, interesting stuff, good stuff. We'll see
how the rest of the deadline shakes out, and we'll
get more bets tomorrow when Scooba will make his Dodger's
debut at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. That's gonna do
it for today's episode to payoff Pitch. Thanks so much
(31:19):
for tuning in. If you'd like to tail the couple
of bets from today's episode, look for the quick slip
links in the episode description. Again, don't forget to download
the free award winning Action Network app. Also, please leave
us a five star rating and review wherever you listen
to the podcast. Very much appreciated. Again, we'll be back tomorrow.
I think Grant is off again. I think it'll just
be me and Sean, but we'll have a lot to
talk about. I'm sure to recap this deadline as well
(31:41):
as get into the best bets for the Tuesday MLB
slate as we get down the stretch last seven eight
weeks of the regular season for Shanzrella. I'm Colin Richard.
Thanks so much for listening to Payoff Pitch Action Networks
Major League Baseball Betting podcast, and good luck with all
your bets.
Speaker 1 (32:08):
Putting his crowd on his feet what trigger No one
wants to leave.
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