July 20, 2026 • 29 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch and Sean Zerillo are here to break down the Monday's MLB slate. The guys dive into sides and totals for today. Tune in to hear his top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page so you don't miss our live shows every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Fall, no crying, and this game is otherway the line up.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It is Springs offering Josh the bit out sign. Here's
a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
It will be a home run.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
And hello to time you talk about a roll at
the dice.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
This is it. Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch Action Hours, Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Monday, July twentieth. I'm Colin Wichard, join as
usual by Action Network senior MLB analyst Sean Zarrillo to
break down this Monday MLB slate. It's a weird Monday.
It's a weird Monday, and that nobody's off. Usually at
(00:56):
least a couple of teams are traveling on Monday. But
now we've got all thirty teams in action. We've got
fifteen games, all under the lights, some nice some nice
arms on the mound. I don't know if we're going
to talk about it, but Freddy Peralta returning to Milwaukee
today to face Jacob Mazerowski and the Brewers. That's kind
of fun. Crossanchez against the Dodgers. I believe we'll get too,
(01:20):
but let's jump right into it. This is gonna be
a quick one today. We're not gonna go the eighty
sixty forty format today. These are all, I guess, just
simple eighty grade bets best bets because it's a small
it's a big slate, but it's a small card from
you today, Sean. So let's jump right into it with
your first best bet of the slate. We are going
(01:40):
to boy. Those scuffling Toronto Blue Jays keep wondering if
they're they're gonna have to just like be forced to
sell a little bit. The Red Sox have one thirteen
in a row. The Orioles have now won seven in
a row. Everyone kind of pulling away from Toronto, which
is all in by you know, coming into the season
(02:01):
by all accounts, now seven games under five hundred. But
they send their ace to the mound today in Dylan
cees against Nick Martinez and the Rays and again as
we get into late July, another big series for Toronto's
playoff hopes.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
Yeah, Dylan C says the match, what Cam Schlitzler did
yesterday against the Dodgers kind of stay on track in
the AlSi Young Rays, I thought cease striking out the
side with Joe Davis and John Smoltz talking in his
ear the whole time was maybe the most impressive performance
of the All Star Game. If Bryce Harper had gotten
a hit or via a homard off of Kate Smith
(02:36):
with the two of them talking in his ear, I
think that would have been the most impressive performance of
the All Star Game because that just seemed like an
impossible task. It's impossible to hate Kate Smith to begin with.
We put John Smoltz just spewing nonsense, and then he
knowing Jo Davis in your ear at the same time
really complicates things. But yeah, he's super president of the
All Star Game. We'll be talking about the other picture
(02:59):
he face than that first inning. But the biggest pitching
mismatch on the slate today in terms of the starting pitchers,
Seize my SP fourteen, Nick Martinez my spe seven, so
number one against the number four essentially in terms of
where these starters would rate on any given roster. Defensive
(03:19):
advantage for Toronto, speed advantage for the Rays. Both teams
make a lot of contact, Jays makes slightly more in
The Jays also have more power with the contact that
they're providing, so we've seen the Rays tail off a
little bit here, you know, getting up ended by the
Red Sox a couple times late in the game. It
seems like they're going through a rough stretch. Yankees obviously
(03:40):
going through a rough stretch. As the Red Sox catch up,
We'll see if the Oriels get their way back into
the mix. But yeah, when Dylan ceases on the mound,
Toronto projects about as well as anybody, and I project
sees about as well as anybody. I think there's sort
of a tear break from Sanchez cease. I mean, Mizerowski
is maybe in a tier by himself, but Mizerowski down
(04:01):
to Sanchez, c Schuttler, I think all three of those
guys are great relatively similarly. For me, been really impressed
by what I've seen from Seas this season. Just the
one issue with Cees when he's not right, it's gonna
look worse that it does for other people. Yes, he's
gonna labor through those innings where he throws thirty pitches,
thirty five pitches, and you're like, oh my god, has
(04:22):
this guy ever thrown a baseball before? This is tough
to watch. It gets really tough to watch when he's
walking everybody and doesn't have his command, but by and large,
he's been incredibly effective this season, and I think pitching
behind or pitching with a very good defense behind him
certainly he's given him a little bit more confident. So
expecting this version of villain sees not just the rest
of the way, but in future seasons. We've seen a
(04:44):
lot of bounce back or up and down performance and
form from Seas throughout his career. I think he's now
established himself at this level, and I make the Jays
about minus one seventy in this game. I bet them
up to minus one fifty five. There's also value on
the first five innings, but it's pretty comparable to the
game line, so I just went with the full game
line at the cheaper price could bet either half.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Though.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
Here Jay's over Rays and hopefully the Rays continue their
brief second half slide before we eventually jump on a
potential futures position right before they head in the next
ten days. Because I'm still expecting the Rays. Nobody's made
a move yet, but I'm expecting the Rays to be
a team making moves to improve their roster in ted days.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
Al E's getting a little bit more interesting with the Rays.
As you mentioned, they've lost five in a row, most
several of that at the hands of the Red Sox,
who have won thirteen straight, Oriels seven straight. So now
the it looked like it was just going to be
a two team race between the Rays and Yankees. We'll
see if the Red Sox and Orioles can climb back
in at six and eight games back, respectively, but all
four legitimately in the playoff race because of the wide
(05:48):
open wild card race. I mean, the Blue Jays are
seven games under five hundred and they're four and a
half games back in the wild card so it.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
Tough for a Central or Western team. We get a
second playoff team.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Yeah, I forget if it was us who talked about
it early in the season or preseason or what, but
the possibility of the al least getting four playoff teams
is it's still alive. It's still there.
Speaker 1 (06:13):
Hasn't happened yet in the wildcard era right where we've
had four from the same division.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Yeah, but it's very very possible we get four from
the same division.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
We'll see likely at this point. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
Yeah, if the Guardians are White Sox slip back, you know,
the Twins and Tigers and then the I mean the
Rangers are leading the AOST right now in their game
over five hundred, so real mess in the American League.
It's gonna lead to some wonkiness of the deadline. I
mean basically everyone could talk themselves into being buyers except
(06:42):
probably the Angels, Royals, and Athletics at this point. So
we'll see what happens there. But Dylan Cees and the
Blue Jays against the race tonight from one All Star
Game starter to another, as you alluded to, Christopher Sanchez
on the mount tonight against the reigning world champion Dodgers
(07:05):
and Sheian on the other side of this one, and uh,
curious where you're going with this one, because you know,
an ace of Sanchez's caliber against an offense of the
Dodgers caliber makes for a fascinating matchup.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
Yeah, I bet against Sanchez with the American League, not
directly against Sanchez, but American League first five of the
All Star Game was on Cease, was against Sanchez. We're
kind of keeping the theme going here. On Monday against
Sanchez and the Phillies, I make the Daughters about plus
I make the Dodgers even money. Make this game right
on a coin flip, so Dodgers plus one oh eight
or better would be a bet for me. Major advantage
(07:41):
in terms of plate discipline and I rating for the
Daughters of the Phillies. Dodgers have a the best I
rating of my model Philly slightly below average in terms
of like you know, itch selectivity, swing selectivity data, so
similar power on both offenses, Dodgers advantage over most teams,
similar contact, but the Daughters are doing it with much
(08:03):
better played the splinter and swinging a much better pitches.
And when you're going up against Christopher Sanchez, who can
struggle with his commanded times, it gets a little bit
buried because of all the ground balls he gets in
all the weak contact he gets. But Sanchez, if you're
patient against him, will walk some guys, and I would
imagine the Daughters will try to get his pitch count up.
We'll see if he's throwing strikes tonight. He wasn't throwing
strikes in the All Star Game. He had a couple
(08:26):
of rough starts or one rough start going into the
All Star Game. Then he gave up ten hits against
the Tigers in a subsequent start, which you never really
see from him. So that it's three straight outings now
for Christopher Sanchez, where were like some red flax in
this profile here? Strike out some walks, you know, even
in the start where he gave up and ten hits,
the Tigers were fine. But yeah, it seems like starting
(08:47):
to get some cracks in the profile. Maybe some fatigue
after throwing so many innings last year, continuing to pile
on the innings this year postseasons the past couple of years,
adding some innings to his plate as well. But yeah,
Daughters took him to plus one twenty last night. They
came down to plus one fifteen today. I liked them
down to plus one oh eight. Emachian projects around a
(09:07):
league average arm for me, but there is some major
upside there, and against a offense like the Phillies who's
willing to chase and swing and miss at pitches outside
of the zone, I think Emichian slider could play up
just a little bit more so. Dodters two plus one
eight and wind is uh. It looks like the winds
blowing out. So I was leaning over here as well.
(09:30):
Considering how I feel about Sanchez, a Dodgers team total
over could be an interesting way to play that instead,
because you know, it goes into the thesis of if
I like the Dodgers in this game, I like them
to get runs off of Sanchez, So I project their
team total at four and a half. If you get
over four and a half at plus one ten, I
would consider something like that. Over three and a half
(09:52):
at minus one forty would be fine. But yeah, we'll
take a look at the team total. In addition to
the Dodgers money nine two plus one.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Wait, we talked about we did a full episode looking
at futures right before the All Star break you and
I'm I don't remember where we landed on this at
the time. I'd have to go back and listen or remember.
But I'm starting to talk myself into a taking a
little sprinkle on Chase Burns to an NLCI young Misrowski,
(10:22):
takes a little bit of a step back Sanchez, as
you mentioned, we've seen cracks and then it's Sale and
Wheeler are the only other guys that Burns has to overcome.
Burns also might have an innings limit and he plays
for the Reds who are going to be out of contention.
But he just might. I don't know where he's at
and you're starting pitcher ranking, but like Misroowski and Sanchez
(10:42):
on the mountd today had me thinking about it, and
I've the more and more I look into Obviously he's
been in the headlines because he just signed a big extension,
but I think Burns is right up there with the
top of the top in the National League, and at
twenty to one, kind of interested in him a little bit.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
I was starting to think about Zach Wheeler yesterday. Yeah,
just like he still hasn't won one. He has build excuse,
he's close, He's got the narrative, right, yeah, he's He's like,
he's got the built in excuse this year of like, oh,
he started off this season injured, like that's not really
his fault, but then he pitched great after that. If
if Wheeler is the best numbers or close to the
best numbers, and misserowskians up missing time and Sanchez ends
(11:23):
up getting dinged up a little bit more, Skeens continues
to be hurt. Skeins look good yesterday, So yeah, I
started to think about the narrative, certainly the push for
the narrative being in Zach Wheeler's favor Skeens. If I'm
looking at value bets Skeens at forty to one, thirty
five to one, whatever he is. Oh yeah, yeah, that's uh.
I make Skeens about fifteen to one, so anything twenty
to one are better on Skeens. I would take a
(11:44):
shot at this point. Considering the trend line of miserowskiin Sanchez,
I may end up adding that myself personally, I'm going
to take some looks today, but yeah, Skeens remains the
projected value bet in that market. But I don't disagree
with the assessment on either either Wheeler or Chase Burns.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Yeah. Wheeler, you know, probably is going to end up
with a Hall of Fame resume, and if he's to believe,
if he's to be believed, last next year is going
to be the last year of his career, because he
said when his current contract expires, he's done. And his
current contract goes through twenty twenty seven. Yeah, like four
(12:22):
top tens I Young finishes or something like that. Never
won one, runner up in twenty twenty four, runner up
in twenty twenty one, So yeah, if he's close, if
it ends up being a coin flip by the end
of the year, you'd think that the narrative will get
him home with the voters.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
He's the highest rated among all my guys too, actually
my second best, and I'll starter right now, I have Mizerowski, Scoble, Wheeler,
Lizardo de Gram That's my top five.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
So ye had.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Wheeler's actually kind of separated himself from the rest of
that group in terms of what I would prorect his
rest of season effectiveness. So he would probably be my
pick if I'm going outside of that top group, but
Schemes would be the bet if I'm going outside the
top group.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
It's funny Wheeler might have the narrative right now, just
like in one of Wheeler's second place finishes, Chris Sale
had the narrative and Chris Sale ended up winning that
cy Young deservedly, But after finishing top five for SI
Hung like seven times, it's like, all right, he finally
gets a cy Young. Now we'll see if Wheeler can
can get that same little bump this year. But a
(13:25):
little bit of a futures side there on a light
betting card day, let's jump back into it. You know,
we've talked about Dylan ceas we've talked about Chris Sanchez.
A lot of good teams good starting pitchers. So let's
jump over to Royals and Giants a little bit, a
little bit different vibes there between these two teams. It
is Trevor McDonald against All star Michael Waka. Who do
(13:46):
you like in this one? Shohn?
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Yeah, take the rose too. About minus one twenty here,
project it closer to minus one thirty. The Giants with
the extra long travel coming from Seattle down to Kansas
City last night to today. It seems like teams get
affected coming off of that Seattle road trip a little
bit more. But not something I'm factoring into the line.
It's just the skills advantages across the board on a
(14:09):
team level, on a position player level, favorite Kansas City everywhere.
They have more power, better eye, better base running and defense.
I don't love this team. I don't love how they've played,
but they do projects the better team, and Waka and
McDonald projects similarly. I'd say McDonald has more upside, Waka
has the higher floor. McDonald's seen to either throw good
(14:30):
starts or get shelled, especially late. Waka's pretty consistent in
terms of his output and effectiveness. But yeah, I make
this game about minus one thirty. Not a bet I'm
super in love with but I would take the rolls
up to minus one twenty today. One of the few
edges that popped up on today's slate, so happy to
jump on it. I just wanted to mention the total
in the weather wind blowing out to left field, temperature
(14:52):
is going to be about ninety three degrees. There was
a big offensive boost to this bark today, but I
still only make the total about ten and a half,
which is roughly where the market is. If I got
it closer to eleven, if I was projecting this closer
to like ten point seven to five or ten point eight,
I would have bet the over ten and a half.
But where it is, I pretty much aligned with the market,
(15:12):
And for whatever reason, I keep being high on these
Royals games where there's like a million runners on base
and nobody cashes in the runners in scoring position, and
it has been the bane of my existence this year.
Is like the over ten and a half that I
bet that closes eleven, and then there's like bases loaded
one out four times in the first three innings and
we get one run out of it. So it's the.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Problem is that Nick Lofton is coming to the play
every time that the bases.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Are loaded correct. Yeah, it's it's been. It's been a
nightmare with the the COLV and the directional correctness of
the totals not performing like our movement is going, but
thankfully on more money lines than totals today. So Royals
to minus one twenty is the bet between Kansas City
and San Front.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
You mentioned weather. Just poking around a little bit, looks
like Atlanta and Chicago are the biggest rain risks today.
But in Chicago, if the rain holds off, got sixteen
mile an hour winds blown out straight away to centerfield.
So Cubs Tigers could be an interesting one tonight. You
mentioned at the top of the show when you were
(16:17):
talking Blue Jays Rays how Cease against Nick Martinez. I
think was your biggest starting pitcher mismatch on the slate.
If you had told me, if you had told me
to guess at the start of the day with the
biggest starting pitcher mismatch was, I would have guessed it
was this game. It is my White Sox down in
Arlington to face the Rangers. Jacob de Gram against Eric Fetti.
(16:41):
Bet against my White Sox at your own peril, Sean,
You're muted.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
Yeah, apologies, So yeah, I was incorrect in my cease
gap versus Martinez assessment. This is the bigger mismatch to
gram My SP six Eric Fete my SP one sixte
ninety four starting pitchers. So he's pitched better than his projection,
say projections have Fede closer to a five, you know,
(17:08):
north of five for his way to his fit projection.
I have him at a four to seventy five. So
I've fed a a little bit better than market if
you followed me. This year, we've bet on some White
Sox money lines with Fede pitching. We bet on some
White Sox unders with Fede pitching. They've done a good job,
as I've said, like the Nationals have done with Miles Michaelis,
in terms of just not letting these guys get over exposed,
using their relievers to try to limit them to two
(17:32):
times through the order. Worth mentioning with the Rangers Park
because we bet so many unders there earlier this year.
The overs have been a bonanza since the drag coefficient
change or the balls started performing a little bit differently
in late May, which I've talked about extensively, written about extensively,
(17:53):
But this was one of the biggest things that really
stood out to me was the barrel distance in Global
Life Park in particular, leads me to believe that they
may have turned off the humidors there, just to guess,
But batt of balls don't go from battle balls don't
gain an extra ten feet of distance on barrels randomly, right.
(18:18):
Something needs to impact that, and all of these games
are indoors now. Just to reiterate, in prior years, the
maximum increase we've seen due to temperature from April to
June on barrels, maximum indoor distance increase was three point
seventy feet. This year it's ten feet. And Global Life
Park has seen the most dramatic increase amongst all the parks.
(18:41):
So Global Life Park was earlier this year playing close
to T Mobile around eighty five percent, roughly fifteen percent
below the Major league gaverage. Now it's playing around ninety
percent ninety two percent, so eight to ten percent below
the Major league gaverage. Those balls that were consistently dying
at the warning track are now going into the stands,
and you can't blame it all on temperature. So I
(19:05):
speculating here, but I do think that the likeliest explanation.
Okham's razor would say they turned off the humidor in
ar Lincoln. We'll find out some point down the line
if that's the case. It will be revealed at some point.
If MB was like, yeah, guys, go ahead, turn off
your humidors. See if you get a little more offense
than that Parker if they just decided to do it
uti laterally. But regardless, regardless of that fact, if there's
(19:28):
going to be more home runs hit in this park,
it's going to favor the Texas Rangers, who they have
the picture on the mount who is likelier to suppress
the homers. Ert Fete much worse home run for nine,
much worse home run per fly ball rate to gram
strike up minus walk rate nearly four times fee strike
up minus walk right fit projections My waited for projection
(19:50):
for de Grom right around to three for fee four
seventy five. As I said before, Bullpen's around the same lineups,
around the same, but I make the Rangers about minus
one in this matchups. I tacked him up to minus
one seventy five. First five did not show value. Otherwise
would have bet that just because I do not love
this Ranger's bullpen, but hopefully de Grom can pitch into
(20:10):
the sixth or the seventh and alleviate some of those concerns.
The Rangers up to minus one seventy five minus one
seventy six for today's game against the White Sox.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
You know, if it's not the humid or you know,
MLB basically admitted a month ago or whatever that they've
got this wonky batch of balls that they got to
play through. You know that they might not get rid
of until like October, which is going to cause even
more chaos in the playoffs potentially. But maybe maybe all
the wonky balls got sent to Arlington just coincidentally, you know. Fetti.
(20:41):
One quick note on Fetti before we move on. You
talked about him out pitching his peripherals with the White Sox.
That is just his He's just got to stay in Chicago.
He's so between this year, half of this year, and
his half season in Chicago in twenty twenty four, this
is actually pretty funny. About twenty percent of his games
in his career he's pitched for the White Sox. Now,
(21:03):
Fetti's career war reference war is six point three. Guess
how much of that six point three he's accumulated with
in two half seasons with the White Sox.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
Five point five.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
You're close, five point six, You're right right there. Five
point six of his six point three career war have
been with the White Sox. He's had a lot of
negative war seasons point eight in a half season with
the Cardinals, minus point seven in a half season with
the Braves last year. He's bad everywhere but Chicago. It
doesn't make any sense, but obviously big mismatch today going
(21:40):
against the ace, the goat, Jacob de Gram. All right,
let's get out of here with one total you have
on your card today in the Bronx Pirates Yankees. Braxton Ashcraft.
Braxton Ashcraft is good man. I really like this guy.
Going against Ryan Weathers in the game.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
Yeah, Weather, It's hit a little performance dip in the
middle of the year. He seems like he's come back
to form of late. We both like Braxton Ashcraft. There's
not a ton to say about him, but he's established
himself as an ACE level starting pitcher. Three point two
expected FIP, three point three, expected ERA twenty seven percent
with rate just elite numbers across the board. Weather's pretty
(22:22):
similar right now. Expected FIP three point three. The expected
the array is much higher, but again, like the rolling numbers,
I think he went through a brief performance that where
he was hanging some stuff. Those numbers spiked of late.
He's much back into form now. The thing that is
most interesting for me here in terms of betting the
(22:42):
under and I have the under on this game. I
like the under eight down to seven and a half
at minus one oh five, project is closer to seven
point two. The Pirates are missing seemingly half of their
offense right now. Spencer Horwitz, Eddie Rodriguez, Conor Griff and
O'Neil Cruz all on the injured list. Those are four
of their starters. Essentially, Andrew Rodrigue was hitting the best
amongst their catchers, and Henry Davis back in there now.
(23:04):
But really the only guy who projects is an above
average hitter against left handed pitching is Brian Reynolds, because
otherwise you're talking Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn. I mean, those
are your other best bets. They're both left handed, so
against left handed pitching, this Pirate's offense should really be suppressed.
It's only Reynolds that I have like significant concerns about
(23:26):
doing damage here. And I've always loved Brian Reynolds. I
think he's a very solid player, maybe a haul of
very good player, but it's not like he's some you know,
you're on Alvarez major power threat. He's a thirty percent
better than major league gaverage hitter. So not a lot
of concern on the Pirates offensive side. Yankees offense does
project better right urchisholm grisham all project twenty percent better
(23:49):
than the gaverage against Righty's, but they're the better defensive team.
I think that can help clean some stuff up in
terms of the runs. So you have two started pitchers.
I like weathers back and form of late, don't love
the bullpens. But I still make this total about seven
point two, so under to seven and a half at
minus one oh five between the Pirates and the Yankees.
(24:11):
The lone total that popped up is a edge overnight.
We'll see if we add anything once we get umpire information,
once weather's or once weather settles a little bit closer
to game time. If I end up adding that, cubs
over because that's something I'm taking a look at. So yeah,
just keep an eye on the action workap for any
additional notifications for today, because right now just five bets
for a fifteen game slate a little bit light. Usually
(24:32):
I have like one for every two games, so like
normally seven eight bets for a fifteen game slate. Five
for a fifteen game slate pretty late. But we're not
going to force anything. I'm gonna stick to the edges
that we can actually quantify, and yeah, just keep an
eye on the action work gap against we had anything.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
Else pirates quick. A couple quick thoughts there. You know,
everyone expected Bubba Chandler to kind of emerge as the
number two behind Schemes in that rotation. Ashcraft has been
that guy instead. I'm just imagining this team if Chandler
figures it out, which he's still young enough too, and
(25:08):
then they have again after just getting Schemes a couple
of years ago. They have the best minor league pitching
prospect in the sport right now, Seth Hernandez, you know,
probably late next year maybe, So that's an elite top
four in that rotation if they can actually spend some
money to support it and offense.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
If they make the playoffs, he can come up and
be k Rod for a month.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
Yesnandez, dude is I mean, if he's not the best
pitching prospect in baseball, he's one bee behind Kate Anderson.
You know, it's like those two guys essentially lighting the
world on fire right now. And on the Pirates offense,
I did want to throw one name out there to
keep an eye on. I don't know if you have
any thoughts on him, but as Merlin Valdez has really
impressed me in that offense. He's never been the top
(25:53):
one hundred prospect. He's only twenty two, and he's been
absolutely crushing the ball since he came up. I kind
of am a he's kind of made me a believer. Obviously,
only a thirty game sample at this point, but Pirates
might have found a little gem there in as Merlin
Valdez the Magician.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
But I'm worried about the strikeout rate. That's the only issue. Guys.
You know, guys with the high, high power, high strikeout.
Righty's striking out thirty eight percent of the time. Yeah,
but he is walking ten percent of the time. So
if you know, if you show me like, hey, I'm
going to swing hard, but I'm going to take pitches too,
and make sure I get on base. But no, the
the the actual WHOBA four fifty seven. The expected wOBA
(26:33):
is three fifty four. So definitely some concern. Babbitt before hundred,
definitely concerned. Oh yeah, major regression for Valdez. But no,
they I mean they're in need of young bats. Like
I said, Andy Rodriguez was starting to give them a
little bit of a boost. So the quicker they can
get these bats back, the better in terms of their
playoff chances, because I don't think the as I've said,
(26:53):
Mitch Keller starting to hit his typical second half fade,
Chandler hasn't really figured it out. Even if Skeins gets
back to his form like Skins and Ashcraft, pitching at
an elite level probably still isn't enough to get you
over the hump and the essentially you need the lineup
to come back together and hit like they were earlier
in the year. So yeah, I think the takeaway regardless
is be impressed with the Pirates player development. You know,
(27:17):
Chandler hasn't necessarily worked out, but Ashcraft is a major win, right,
They've they've had wins with some of the hitters they've developed.
So J Jones yeah, Jared Jones coming back looks great.
So you know, the Pirates are dangerous if they're there
in the end, because you do not want to face Skeens,
Jones and Ashcraft that a five game series. That's an
(27:37):
absolute nightmare. But uh yeah, I think the hitting piece
for them is really uh just get healthy, you know,
and we'll see if they're active at the trade head
hunt or not.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
The bullpen's not been that great. And yeah, again, as
you said, if there's one team I trust the least
to supplement their roster in the next two weeks, it's
on the team owned by Bob Nutting.
Speaker 1 (28:01):
There will be a lot of hay. At least we
tried new stories about it.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
I mean, this team traded the number thirty four pick
in the draft because they wanted to save three million
off their draft pool. Yeah so all right, good stuff though,
And that's gonna do it for this episode of Payoff Pitch.
Thanks so much for tuning in. If you'd like to
tell some of the bets from today's episode, look for
the quick slip links in the episode description. Don't forget
(28:25):
to download the free, award winning Action Network app, and
also please leave us a five star rating and review
wherever you listen to the podcast. We will be back
tomorrow with another episode of Payoff Pitch for Shonzrella. I'm
Colin Richard. Thanks so much for listening to Payoff Pitch
Action Network, major League Baseball Betting podcast. Good luck with all.
(28:46):
Thanks put his crowd on his feet.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
What a trip, No One, munch Jay
Fall, no crying, and this game is otherway the line up.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It is Springs offering Josh the bit out sign. Here's
a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
It will be a home run.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
And hello to time you talk about a roll at
the dice.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
This is it. Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch Action Hours, Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Monday, July twentieth. I'm Colin Wichard, join as
usual by Action Network senior MLB analyst Sean Zarrillo to
break down this Monday MLB slate. It's a weird Monday.
It's a weird Monday, and that nobody's off. Usually at
(00:56):
least a couple of teams are traveling on Monday. But
now we've got all thirty teams in action. We've got
fifteen games, all under the lights, some nice some nice
arms on the mound. I don't know if we're going
to talk about it, but Freddy Peralta returning to Milwaukee
today to face Jacob Mazerowski and the Brewers. That's kind
of fun. Crossanchez against the Dodgers. I believe we'll get too,
(01:20):
but let's jump right into it. This is gonna be
a quick one today. We're not gonna go the eighty
sixty forty format today. These are all, I guess, just
simple eighty grade bets best bets because it's a small
it's a big slate, but it's a small card from
you today, Sean. So let's jump right into it with
your first best bet of the slate. We are going
(01:40):
to boy. Those scuffling Toronto Blue Jays keep wondering if
they're they're gonna have to just like be forced to
sell a little bit. The Red Sox have one thirteen
in a row. The Orioles have now won seven in
a row. Everyone kind of pulling away from Toronto, which
is all in by you know, coming into the season
(02:01):
by all accounts, now seven games under five hundred. But
they send their ace to the mound today in Dylan
cees against Nick Martinez and the Rays and again as
we get into late July, another big series for Toronto's
playoff hopes.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
Yeah, Dylan C says the match, what Cam Schlitzler did
yesterday against the Dodgers kind of stay on track in
the AlSi Young Rays, I thought cease striking out the
side with Joe Davis and John Smoltz talking in his
ear the whole time was maybe the most impressive performance
of the All Star Game. If Bryce Harper had gotten
a hit or via a homard off of Kate Smith
(02:36):
with the two of them talking in his ear, I
think that would have been the most impressive performance of
the All Star Game because that just seemed like an
impossible task. It's impossible to hate Kate Smith to begin with.
We put John Smoltz just spewing nonsense, and then he
knowing Jo Davis in your ear at the same time
really complicates things. But yeah, he's super president of the
All Star Game. We'll be talking about the other picture
(02:59):
he face than that first inning. But the biggest pitching
mismatch on the slate today in terms of the starting pitchers,
Seize my SP fourteen, Nick Martinez my spe seven, so
number one against the number four essentially in terms of
where these starters would rate on any given roster. Defensive
(03:19):
advantage for Toronto, speed advantage for the Rays. Both teams
make a lot of contact, Jays makes slightly more in
The Jays also have more power with the contact that
they're providing, so we've seen the Rays tail off a
little bit here, you know, getting up ended by the
Red Sox a couple times late in the game. It
seems like they're going through a rough stretch. Yankees obviously
(03:40):
going through a rough stretch. As the Red Sox catch up,
We'll see if the Oriels get their way back into
the mix. But yeah, when Dylan ceases on the mound,
Toronto projects about as well as anybody, and I project
sees about as well as anybody. I think there's sort
of a tear break from Sanchez cease. I mean, Mizerowski
is maybe in a tier by himself, but Mizerowski down
(04:01):
to Sanchez, c Schuttler, I think all three of those
guys are great relatively similarly. For me, been really impressed
by what I've seen from Seas this season. Just the
one issue with Cees when he's not right, it's gonna
look worse that it does for other people. Yes, he's
gonna labor through those innings where he throws thirty pitches,
thirty five pitches, and you're like, oh my god, has
(04:22):
this guy ever thrown a baseball before? This is tough
to watch. It gets really tough to watch when he's
walking everybody and doesn't have his command, but by and large,
he's been incredibly effective this season, and I think pitching
behind or pitching with a very good defense behind him
certainly he's given him a little bit more confident. So
expecting this version of villain sees not just the rest
of the way, but in future seasons. We've seen a
(04:44):
lot of bounce back or up and down performance and
form from Seas throughout his career. I think he's now
established himself at this level, and I make the Jays
about minus one seventy in this game. I bet them
up to minus one fifty five. There's also value on
the first five innings, but it's pretty comparable to the
game line, so I just went with the full game
line at the cheaper price could bet either half.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Though.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
Here Jay's over Rays and hopefully the Rays continue their
brief second half slide before we eventually jump on a
potential futures position right before they head in the next
ten days. Because I'm still expecting the Rays. Nobody's made
a move yet, but I'm expecting the Rays to be
a team making moves to improve their roster in ted days.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
Al E's getting a little bit more interesting with the Rays.
As you mentioned, they've lost five in a row, most
several of that at the hands of the Red Sox,
who have won thirteen straight, Oriels seven straight. So now
the it looked like it was just going to be
a two team race between the Rays and Yankees. We'll
see if the Red Sox and Orioles can climb back
in at six and eight games back, respectively, but all
four legitimately in the playoff race because of the wide
(05:48):
open wild card race. I mean, the Blue Jays are
seven games under five hundred and they're four and a
half games back in the wild card so it.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
Tough for a Central or Western team. We get a
second playoff team.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Yeah, I forget if it was us who talked about
it early in the season or preseason or what, but
the possibility of the al least getting four playoff teams
is it's still alive. It's still there.
Speaker 1 (06:13):
Hasn't happened yet in the wildcard era right where we've
had four from the same division.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Yeah, but it's very very possible we get four from
the same division.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
We'll see likely at this point. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
Yeah, if the Guardians are White Sox slip back, you know,
the Twins and Tigers and then the I mean the
Rangers are leading the AOST right now in their game
over five hundred, so real mess in the American League.
It's gonna lead to some wonkiness of the deadline. I
mean basically everyone could talk themselves into being buyers except
(06:42):
probably the Angels, Royals, and Athletics at this point. So
we'll see what happens there. But Dylan Cees and the
Blue Jays against the race tonight from one All Star
Game starter to another, as you alluded to, Christopher Sanchez
on the mount tonight against the reigning world champion Dodgers
(07:05):
and Sheian on the other side of this one, and uh,
curious where you're going with this one, because you know,
an ace of Sanchez's caliber against an offense of the
Dodgers caliber makes for a fascinating matchup.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
Yeah, I bet against Sanchez with the American League, not
directly against Sanchez, but American League first five of the
All Star Game was on Cease, was against Sanchez. We're
kind of keeping the theme going here. On Monday against
Sanchez and the Phillies, I make the Daughters about plus
I make the Dodgers even money. Make this game right
on a coin flip, so Dodgers plus one oh eight
or better would be a bet for me. Major advantage
(07:41):
in terms of plate discipline and I rating for the
Daughters of the Phillies. Dodgers have a the best I
rating of my model Philly slightly below average in terms
of like you know, itch selectivity, swing selectivity data, so
similar power on both offenses, Dodgers advantage over most teams,
similar contact, but the Daughters are doing it with much
(08:03):
better played the splinter and swinging a much better pitches.
And when you're going up against Christopher Sanchez, who can
struggle with his commanded times, it gets a little bit
buried because of all the ground balls he gets in
all the weak contact he gets. But Sanchez, if you're
patient against him, will walk some guys, and I would
imagine the Daughters will try to get his pitch count up.
We'll see if he's throwing strikes tonight. He wasn't throwing
strikes in the All Star Game. He had a couple
(08:26):
of rough starts or one rough start going into the
All Star Game. Then he gave up ten hits against
the Tigers in a subsequent start, which you never really
see from him. So that it's three straight outings now
for Christopher Sanchez, where were like some red flax in
this profile here? Strike out some walks, you know, even
in the start where he gave up and ten hits,
the Tigers were fine. But yeah, it seems like starting
(08:47):
to get some cracks in the profile. Maybe some fatigue
after throwing so many innings last year, continuing to pile
on the innings this year postseasons the past couple of years,
adding some innings to his plate as well. But yeah,
Daughters took him to plus one twenty last night. They
came down to plus one fifteen today. I liked them
down to plus one oh eight. Emachian projects around a
(09:07):
league average arm for me, but there is some major
upside there, and against a offense like the Phillies who's
willing to chase and swing and miss at pitches outside
of the zone, I think Emichian slider could play up
just a little bit more so. Dodters two plus one
eight and wind is uh. It looks like the winds
blowing out. So I was leaning over here as well.
(09:30):
Considering how I feel about Sanchez, a Dodgers team total
over could be an interesting way to play that instead,
because you know, it goes into the thesis of if
I like the Dodgers in this game, I like them
to get runs off of Sanchez, So I project their
team total at four and a half. If you get
over four and a half at plus one ten, I
would consider something like that. Over three and a half
(09:52):
at minus one forty would be fine. But yeah, we'll
take a look at the team total. In addition to
the Dodgers money nine two plus one.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Wait, we talked about we did a full episode looking
at futures right before the All Star break you and
I'm I don't remember where we landed on this at
the time. I'd have to go back and listen or remember.
But I'm starting to talk myself into a taking a
little sprinkle on Chase Burns to an NLCI young Misrowski,
(10:22):
takes a little bit of a step back Sanchez, as
you mentioned, we've seen cracks and then it's Sale and
Wheeler are the only other guys that Burns has to overcome.
Burns also might have an innings limit and he plays
for the Reds who are going to be out of contention.
But he just might. I don't know where he's at
and you're starting pitcher ranking, but like Misroowski and Sanchez
(10:42):
on the mountd today had me thinking about it, and
I've the more and more I look into Obviously he's
been in the headlines because he just signed a big extension,
but I think Burns is right up there with the
top of the top in the National League, and at
twenty to one, kind of interested in him a little bit.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
I was starting to think about Zach Wheeler yesterday. Yeah,
just like he still hasn't won one. He has build excuse,
he's close, He's got the narrative, right, yeah, he's He's like,
he's got the built in excuse this year of like, oh,
he started off this season injured, like that's not really
his fault, but then he pitched great after that. If
if Wheeler is the best numbers or close to the
best numbers, and misserowskians up missing time and Sanchez ends
(11:23):
up getting dinged up a little bit more, Skeens continues
to be hurt. Skeins look good yesterday, So yeah, I
started to think about the narrative, certainly the push for
the narrative being in Zach Wheeler's favor Skeens. If I'm
looking at value bets Skeens at forty to one, thirty
five to one, whatever he is. Oh yeah, yeah, that's uh.
I make Skeens about fifteen to one, so anything twenty
to one are better on Skeens. I would take a
(11:44):
shot at this point. Considering the trend line of miserowskiin Sanchez,
I may end up adding that myself personally, I'm going
to take some looks today, but yeah, Skeens remains the
projected value bet in that market. But I don't disagree
with the assessment on either either Wheeler or Chase Burns.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Yeah. Wheeler, you know, probably is going to end up
with a Hall of Fame resume, and if he's to believe,
if he's to be believed, last next year is going
to be the last year of his career, because he
said when his current contract expires, he's done. And his
current contract goes through twenty twenty seven. Yeah, like four
(12:22):
top tens I Young finishes or something like that. Never
won one, runner up in twenty twenty four, runner up
in twenty twenty one, So yeah, if he's close, if
it ends up being a coin flip by the end
of the year, you'd think that the narrative will get
him home with the voters.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
He's the highest rated among all my guys too, actually
my second best, and I'll starter right now, I have Mizerowski, Scoble, Wheeler,
Lizardo de Gram That's my top five.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
So ye had.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Wheeler's actually kind of separated himself from the rest of
that group in terms of what I would prorect his
rest of season effectiveness. So he would probably be my
pick if I'm going outside of that top group, but
Schemes would be the bet if I'm going outside the
top group.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
It's funny Wheeler might have the narrative right now, just
like in one of Wheeler's second place finishes, Chris Sale
had the narrative and Chris Sale ended up winning that
cy Young deservedly, But after finishing top five for SI
Hung like seven times, it's like, all right, he finally
gets a cy Young. Now we'll see if Wheeler can
can get that same little bump this year. But a
(13:25):
little bit of a futures side there on a light
betting card day, let's jump back into it. You know,
we've talked about Dylan ceas we've talked about Chris Sanchez.
A lot of good teams good starting pitchers. So let's
jump over to Royals and Giants a little bit, a
little bit different vibes there between these two teams. It
is Trevor McDonald against All star Michael Waka. Who do
(13:46):
you like in this one? Shohn?
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Yeah, take the rose too. About minus one twenty here,
project it closer to minus one thirty. The Giants with
the extra long travel coming from Seattle down to Kansas
City last night to today. It seems like teams get
affected coming off of that Seattle road trip a little
bit more. But not something I'm factoring into the line.
It's just the skills advantages across the board on a
(14:09):
team level, on a position player level, favorite Kansas City everywhere.
They have more power, better eye, better base running and defense.
I don't love this team. I don't love how they've played,
but they do projects the better team, and Waka and
McDonald projects similarly. I'd say McDonald has more upside, Waka
has the higher floor. McDonald's seen to either throw good
(14:30):
starts or get shelled, especially late. Waka's pretty consistent in
terms of his output and effectiveness. But yeah, I make
this game about minus one thirty. Not a bet I'm
super in love with but I would take the rolls
up to minus one twenty today. One of the few
edges that popped up on today's slate, so happy to
jump on it. I just wanted to mention the total
in the weather wind blowing out to left field, temperature
(14:52):
is going to be about ninety three degrees. There was
a big offensive boost to this bark today, but I
still only make the total about ten and a half,
which is roughly where the market is. If I got
it closer to eleven, if I was projecting this closer
to like ten point seven to five or ten point eight,
I would have bet the over ten and a half.
But where it is, I pretty much aligned with the market,
(15:12):
And for whatever reason, I keep being high on these
Royals games where there's like a million runners on base
and nobody cashes in the runners in scoring position, and
it has been the bane of my existence this year.
Is like the over ten and a half that I
bet that closes eleven, and then there's like bases loaded
one out four times in the first three innings and
we get one run out of it. So it's the.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Problem is that Nick Lofton is coming to the play
every time that the bases.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Are loaded correct. Yeah, it's it's been. It's been a
nightmare with the the COLV and the directional correctness of
the totals not performing like our movement is going, but
thankfully on more money lines than totals today. So Royals
to minus one twenty is the bet between Kansas City
and San Front.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
You mentioned weather. Just poking around a little bit, looks
like Atlanta and Chicago are the biggest rain risks today.
But in Chicago, if the rain holds off, got sixteen
mile an hour winds blown out straight away to centerfield.
So Cubs Tigers could be an interesting one tonight. You
mentioned at the top of the show when you were
(16:17):
talking Blue Jays Rays how Cease against Nick Martinez. I
think was your biggest starting pitcher mismatch on the slate.
If you had told me, if you had told me
to guess at the start of the day with the
biggest starting pitcher mismatch was, I would have guessed it
was this game. It is my White Sox down in
Arlington to face the Rangers. Jacob de Gram against Eric Fetti.
(16:41):
Bet against my White Sox at your own peril, Sean,
You're muted.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
Yeah, apologies, So yeah, I was incorrect in my cease
gap versus Martinez assessment. This is the bigger mismatch to
gram My SP six Eric Fete my SP one sixte
ninety four starting pitchers. So he's pitched better than his projection,
say projections have Fede closer to a five, you know,
(17:08):
north of five for his way to his fit projection.
I have him at a four to seventy five. So
I've fed a a little bit better than market if
you followed me. This year, we've bet on some White
Sox money lines with Fede pitching. We bet on some
White Sox unders with Fede pitching. They've done a good job,
as I've said, like the Nationals have done with Miles Michaelis,
in terms of just not letting these guys get over exposed,
using their relievers to try to limit them to two
(17:32):
times through the order. Worth mentioning with the Rangers Park
because we bet so many unders there earlier this year.
The overs have been a bonanza since the drag coefficient
change or the balls started performing a little bit differently
in late May, which I've talked about extensively, written about extensively,
(17:53):
But this was one of the biggest things that really
stood out to me was the barrel distance in Global
Life Park in particular, leads me to believe that they
may have turned off the humidors there, just to guess,
But batt of balls don't go from battle balls don't
gain an extra ten feet of distance on barrels randomly, right.
(18:18):
Something needs to impact that, and all of these games
are indoors now. Just to reiterate, in prior years, the
maximum increase we've seen due to temperature from April to
June on barrels, maximum indoor distance increase was three point
seventy feet. This year it's ten feet. And Global Life
Park has seen the most dramatic increase amongst all the parks.
(18:41):
So Global Life Park was earlier this year playing close
to T Mobile around eighty five percent, roughly fifteen percent
below the Major league gaverage. Now it's playing around ninety
percent ninety two percent, so eight to ten percent below
the Major league gaverage. Those balls that were consistently dying
at the warning track are now going into the stands,
and you can't blame it all on temperature. So I
(19:05):
speculating here, but I do think that the likeliest explanation.
Okham's razor would say they turned off the humidor in
ar Lincoln. We'll find out some point down the line
if that's the case. It will be revealed at some point.
If MB was like, yeah, guys, go ahead, turn off
your humidors. See if you get a little more offense
than that Parker if they just decided to do it
uti laterally. But regardless, regardless of that fact, if there's
(19:28):
going to be more home runs hit in this park,
it's going to favor the Texas Rangers, who they have
the picture on the mount who is likelier to suppress
the homers. Ert Fete much worse home run for nine,
much worse home run per fly ball rate to gram
strike up minus walk rate nearly four times fee strike
up minus walk right fit projections My waited for projection
(19:50):
for de Grom right around to three for fee four
seventy five. As I said before, Bullpen's around the same lineups,
around the same, but I make the Rangers about minus
one in this matchups. I tacked him up to minus
one seventy five. First five did not show value. Otherwise
would have bet that just because I do not love
this Ranger's bullpen, but hopefully de Grom can pitch into
(20:10):
the sixth or the seventh and alleviate some of those concerns.
The Rangers up to minus one seventy five minus one
seventy six for today's game against the White Sox.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
You know, if it's not the humid or you know,
MLB basically admitted a month ago or whatever that they've
got this wonky batch of balls that they got to
play through. You know that they might not get rid
of until like October, which is going to cause even
more chaos in the playoffs potentially. But maybe maybe all
the wonky balls got sent to Arlington just coincidentally, you know. Fetti.
(20:41):
One quick note on Fetti before we move on. You
talked about him out pitching his peripherals with the White Sox.
That is just his He's just got to stay in Chicago.
He's so between this year, half of this year, and
his half season in Chicago in twenty twenty four, this
is actually pretty funny. About twenty percent of his games
in his career he's pitched for the White Sox. Now,
(21:03):
Fetti's career war reference war is six point three. Guess
how much of that six point three he's accumulated with
in two half seasons with the White Sox.
Speaker 1 (21:15):
Five point five.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
You're close, five point six, You're right right there. Five
point six of his six point three career war have
been with the White Sox. He's had a lot of
negative war seasons point eight in a half season with
the Cardinals, minus point seven in a half season with
the Braves last year. He's bad everywhere but Chicago. It
doesn't make any sense, but obviously big mismatch today going
(21:40):
against the ace, the goat, Jacob de Gram. All right,
let's get out of here with one total you have
on your card today in the Bronx Pirates Yankees. Braxton Ashcraft.
Braxton Ashcraft is good man. I really like this guy.
Going against Ryan Weathers in the game.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
Yeah, Weather, It's hit a little performance dip in the
middle of the year. He seems like he's come back
to form of late. We both like Braxton Ashcraft. There's
not a ton to say about him, but he's established
himself as an ACE level starting pitcher. Three point two
expected FIP, three point three, expected ERA twenty seven percent
with rate just elite numbers across the board. Weather's pretty
(22:22):
similar right now. Expected FIP three point three. The expected
the array is much higher, but again, like the rolling numbers,
I think he went through a brief performance that where
he was hanging some stuff. Those numbers spiked of late.
He's much back into form now. The thing that is
most interesting for me here in terms of betting the
(22:42):
under and I have the under on this game. I
like the under eight down to seven and a half
at minus one oh five, project is closer to seven
point two. The Pirates are missing seemingly half of their
offense right now. Spencer Horwitz, Eddie Rodriguez, Conor Griff and
O'Neil Cruz all on the injured list. Those are four
of their starters. Essentially, Andrew Rodrigue was hitting the best
amongst their catchers, and Henry Davis back in there now.
(23:04):
But really the only guy who projects is an above
average hitter against left handed pitching is Brian Reynolds, because
otherwise you're talking Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn. I mean, those
are your other best bets. They're both left handed, so
against left handed pitching, this Pirate's offense should really be suppressed.
It's only Reynolds that I have like significant concerns about
(23:26):
doing damage here. And I've always loved Brian Reynolds. I
think he's a very solid player, maybe a haul of
very good player, but it's not like he's some you know,
you're on Alvarez major power threat. He's a thirty percent
better than major league gaverage hitter. So not a lot
of concern on the Pirates offensive side. Yankees offense does
project better right urchisholm grisham all project twenty percent better
(23:49):
than the gaverage against Righty's, but they're the better defensive team.
I think that can help clean some stuff up in
terms of the runs. So you have two started pitchers.
I like weathers back and form of late, don't love
the bullpens. But I still make this total about seven
point two, so under to seven and a half at
minus one oh five between the Pirates and the Yankees.
(24:11):
The lone total that popped up is a edge overnight.
We'll see if we add anything once we get umpire information,
once weather's or once weather settles a little bit closer
to game time. If I end up adding that, cubs
over because that's something I'm taking a look at. So yeah,
just keep an eye on the action workap for any
additional notifications for today, because right now just five bets
for a fifteen game slate a little bit light. Usually
(24:32):
I have like one for every two games, so like
normally seven eight bets for a fifteen game slate. Five
for a fifteen game slate pretty late. But we're not
going to force anything. I'm gonna stick to the edges
that we can actually quantify, and yeah, just keep an
eye on the action work gap against we had anything.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
Else pirates quick. A couple quick thoughts there. You know,
everyone expected Bubba Chandler to kind of emerge as the
number two behind Schemes in that rotation. Ashcraft has been
that guy instead. I'm just imagining this team if Chandler
figures it out, which he's still young enough too, and
(25:08):
then they have again after just getting Schemes a couple
of years ago. They have the best minor league pitching
prospect in the sport right now, Seth Hernandez, you know,
probably late next year maybe, So that's an elite top
four in that rotation if they can actually spend some
money to support it and offense.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
If they make the playoffs, he can come up and
be k Rod for a month.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
Yesnandez, dude is I mean, if he's not the best
pitching prospect in baseball, he's one bee behind Kate Anderson.
You know, it's like those two guys essentially lighting the
world on fire right now. And on the Pirates offense,
I did want to throw one name out there to
keep an eye on. I don't know if you have
any thoughts on him, but as Merlin Valdez has really
impressed me in that offense. He's never been the top
(25:53):
one hundred prospect. He's only twenty two, and he's been
absolutely crushing the ball since he came up. I kind
of am a he's kind of made me a believer. Obviously,
only a thirty game sample at this point, but Pirates
might have found a little gem there in as Merlin
Valdez the Magician.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
But I'm worried about the strikeout rate. That's the only issue. Guys.
You know, guys with the high, high power, high strikeout.
Righty's striking out thirty eight percent of the time. Yeah,
but he is walking ten percent of the time. So
if you know, if you show me like, hey, I'm
going to swing hard, but I'm going to take pitches too,
and make sure I get on base. But no, the
the the actual WHOBA four fifty seven. The expected wOBA
(26:33):
is three fifty four. So definitely some concern. Babbitt before hundred,
definitely concerned. Oh yeah, major regression for Valdez. But no,
they I mean they're in need of young bats. Like
I said, Andy Rodriguez was starting to give them a
little bit of a boost. So the quicker they can
get these bats back, the better in terms of their
playoff chances, because I don't think the as I've said,
(26:53):
Mitch Keller starting to hit his typical second half fade,
Chandler hasn't really figured it out. Even if Skeins gets
back to his form like Skins and Ashcraft, pitching at
an elite level probably still isn't enough to get you
over the hump and the essentially you need the lineup
to come back together and hit like they were earlier
in the year. So yeah, I think the takeaway regardless
is be impressed with the Pirates player development. You know,
(27:17):
Chandler hasn't necessarily worked out, but Ashcraft is a major win, right,
They've they've had wins with some of the hitters they've developed.
So J Jones yeah, Jared Jones coming back looks great.
So you know, the Pirates are dangerous if they're there
in the end, because you do not want to face Skeens,
Jones and Ashcraft that a five game series. That's an
(27:37):
absolute nightmare. But uh yeah, I think the hitting piece
for them is really uh just get healthy, you know,
and we'll see if they're active at the trade head
hunt or not.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
The bullpen's not been that great. And yeah, again, as
you said, if there's one team I trust the least
to supplement their roster in the next two weeks, it's
on the team owned by Bob Nutting.
Speaker 1 (28:01):
There will be a lot of hay. At least we
tried new stories about it.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
I mean, this team traded the number thirty four pick
in the draft because they wanted to save three million
off their draft pool. Yeah so all right, good stuff though,
And that's gonna do it for this episode of Payoff Pitch.
Thanks so much for tuning in. If you'd like to
tell some of the bets from today's episode, look for
the quick slip links in the episode description. Don't forget
(28:25):
to download the free, award winning Action Network app, and
also please leave us a five star rating and review
wherever you listen to the podcast. We will be back
tomorrow with another episode of Payoff Pitch for Shonzrella. I'm
Colin Richard. Thanks so much for listening to Payoff Pitch
Action Network, major League Baseball Betting podcast. Good luck with all.
(28:46):
Thanks put his crowd on his feet.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
What a trip, No One, munch Jay
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