July 17, 2026 • 34 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch, Sean Zerillo, and Derek Carty break down the Friday MLB slate, diving into sides, totals and player props. Using the MLB 20–80 scouting scale, they grade their most confident plays and highlight where they’re finding the most value across the board. Tune in to hear their top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Rate, review and subscribe to the show wherever you watch or listen so you don't miss us every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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31 - 40-GRADE BETS
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
There's that flying a tank.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Ball, no crying, and this game's underway.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
Into the line up it is springs, stop bringing jobs
the bit out sign. Here's a drive in a deep
bliftfield by Castianos. It will be a home run.
Speaker 4 (00:19):
To field.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
And hello dude, coming up. You talk about a roll
at the.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Dice, this is it.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch. Welcome in to Payoff Pitch. Action
Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast. It is Friday, July seventeenth.
I'm Colin Whitchurch, joined today by Action Network Senior MLB
analyst Schaan Zarrillo, as well as Derek Carty, the creator
(00:51):
of the bat x projection system. We're going to break
down this entire fifteen game slay. It looks like they're
is oh, sixteen games plate. We got a double header
today Raisin Red Sox. Game one of that doubleheader getting
started about one thirty Eastern today. But it's a weird day.
(01:12):
We're out of the All Star break. We're fresh, we
are ready to go, and we've got a lot of
bets on the card for this slate. Derek Cardy, let's
start with you for this eighty grade section. The three
star betting section, and you are going with this is
(01:34):
not exactly a big name, not exactly a high profile game,
but value is value. Right. We have the Rockies and
Reds it Coors tonight, and you're targeting the Rockies starting pitcher.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Yes, starting for the Rockies tonight is Gabriel Hughes, and
I'm going under four and a half strikeouts. Plus one
oh eight at Bette Rivers is the best odds on
the board. There's also so plus one h two at
FanDuel pretty widely available, and I like it down to
minus one thirty five.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
Hughes is not a major prospect.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
The most important thing here is that he's not a
guy that they generally, at least in the miners have
let go super deep into games in course field. Unlikely
he'll be able to because he'll be get getting hit
around course field, we know, because of the altitude really
suppresses strikeouts. So this is one that the bad has projected,
has projected really well, only about four strikeouts here for Hughes.
(02:33):
About a sixty three percent chance that he goes under
the four and a half. And you can find it
at you know, plus or even money pretty much everywhere.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
All right, Gabriel hughes under four and a half strikeouts.
That's Derek Carty's first bet. Sean, your first bet of
the day is in that aforementioned double header. Raise Red Socks.
You have a side on one of these games in
this matchup.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Yeah, apologies, think video just dropped out for a second.
So raise Red Sox. Taking the Rays down to about
minus one or two, I make them minus one ten
in this game. Project them about six points better in
terms of offensive quality WRC plus. Enjoyed seeing the video
from All Star weekend of the All Stars talking about
their favorite offensive stats, James Wood shouting out WRC plus,
(03:21):
Verbin Perrel shouting out expected wOBA. Happy to see this
young generation of baseball players or as much of nerds
as we are, or at least moderately on the nerds scale.
But six points better in terms of WRC plus for
the Raised offense comp to the Red Sox offense. Griffin
Jacks has the better stuff profile, projects five points better
in terms of pitching plus strike at minus walk great
(03:44):
slightly better for Jacks as well. Red Sox with a
slightly better bullpen and also the better defensive team, but
still get the raised about minus one ten here and
as I discussed on a couple podcasts last week, not
on Payoff Pitch specifically, but on other shows. I think
the raise, if you're looking for a value bet to
win the World Series right now, raise at seventeen to
one really the one thing that popped. As I've said,
(04:07):
they have full intentions of adding at the trade deadline,
So I think this Race team is going to look
a lot better in a couple of weeks than it
does right now. It's the winning on that Aaron Judge
injury return news. But raise Ale Penn and about plus
five to fifty, Raise Ale or raise World Series about
seventeen to one the two bets from a World Series
pen and perspective that are popping currently.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Raise talking about adding at the deadline, Marlins reports recently
say they are intending on adding at the deadline. Very
wild stuff going on. It's gonna be a weird, weird
trade deadline with not that many obvious sellers, especially in
the jumbled American League where there doesn't seem to be
any really great teams. Let's jump over to the Mariners
(04:51):
and Giant Derek, you have a prop on this game, Sean,
you also have a side on this game, so we'll
go to you right after that, Derek, you're targeting Mariner's
starting pitcher here, Bryce Miller going up against Landon Roupe
here in Seattle tonight.
Speaker 4 (05:08):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
I'm looking at Bryce Miller under seventeen and a half
outs plus one thirty six at poly Markets, the best
odds on the board. I like it down to minus
one twenty five, so you can find this pretty much everywhere.
This is I think the bad axes highest highest projected
ROI play of the day, projecting only about a sixty
percent chance that he completes the sixth inning, and we're
(05:30):
getting really big plus money on it. As bad as
San Francisco has been this year, there's still like a
league average offense. Their offense is actually not terrible. And
Bryce Miller, even though he's not being piggybacked anymore, it
feels almost like the market is overreacting to Okay, now
he's not being piggybacked, so he's gonna have, you know,
(05:51):
a really high chance of completing six innings and that
really hasn't even been the case in his starts where
he hasn't been piggybacked. So again the projection is a
little under sixteen outs on average, so definitely getting some
good value on this one.
Speaker 3 (06:04):
And you have another prop from this game as well,
I just realized. But Sean, let's get your take here
on the side again, Giants Mariners landing roupe against Bryce Miller.
Where you see value in this one?
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Yeah, I make the Mariners about minus one seventy five,
so anything up to minus one sixty is fine. I'm
projecting Huli Rodriguez to come back today. It seems like
reports are indicating he should be coming off with the
concussion il today. The people who implement lineups for my
model did not have him in today, so that was
a manual adjustment I had to make based off of
the news. But the point is, I think if you're
(06:36):
doing and using automated lineup services or automated lineup tools,
I think a lot of people didn't have lu Rodriguez
in there for today, and as a result, the market
seems a little bit shy of where it should be
for this matchup. So that is the main takeaway. You know,
the Mariners' lineup I think should be a little bit
better projection wise for this game. Then a lot of
people have it with Julio Beck in it. Hopefully it's
(06:58):
back to full strength coming off of a concussion I owe.
But yeah, Mariner's up to minus one sixty my bet
not game, and.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Then Derek to close out our Mariners giant section. At
least for now, you have a backup, a backup catcher,
backup catcher special here, and it's not. You have another
bet on this guy that will get to in the
sixty grade section. But this is not the direction I
would expect you to go if you're betting on a
backup catcher. So tell us about this bet.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
No, it's weird.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
I don't usually go to this market very often, certainly
not for backup catchers. But it's it's just a straight
math play. It's showing really good value, so I'm gonna
take it. It's Drew Cavanaugh to record an RBI at
plus four twenty five at bet three sixty five. I
like it down to about three thirty five or so.
There's a three forty at Caesars, there's a three forty
(07:48):
one at DraftKings. Yeah, Drew Cavanaugh is nothing special, but
he is better than he's actually been in a small
sample major league career.
Speaker 4 (07:59):
Kind of tore up triple A this year tore up
double A.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
He projects as an above average backup catcher, which is
not amazing, but it's not nothing either, especially when we're
being offered really high odds here.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
So really it's just it's a math play.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
The bad X thinks there's about a twenty five percent
chance he gets an RBI. We're being given nineteen percent
implied odds, So yeah, there's value.
Speaker 3 (08:24):
Drew Cavanaugh, former seventeenth round pick of the Giants. He
went to two different schools in college, Seawan. I know
you're you went to school in Florida. Have you ever
heard of these schools? He went to Eastern Florida State
College in Cocoa, Florida, and Florida Southern College in Lakeland, Florida.
Are those on your radar or not? Either of those
on my radar? No? Yeah, all right, Drew Cavanaugh to
(08:45):
get an RBI. Love that. Twelve career games for Kavanaugh,
thirty eight career played appearances, two career RBIs, So this
is very much a Derek Cardi special. Love it, Sean,
You've got two more money line plays here, one of
them you got. You've got a total down in the
sixty grade section. So let's get to that one first.
(09:05):
You know, we're talking a lot about We were talking
before we came on about the smoke coming across a
lot of parts of the United States affecting weather. The
air quality in Chicago yesterday was historically bad. I don't
know a lot about aqui. I'm not a meteorologist. It
goes from one to five hundred, they said normally, and
(09:26):
we're hitting around seven hundred in Chicago yesterday. You walk
outside your front door and it was like you're standing
in front of a bonfire and the wind change direction,
blowing in your face. It was really, really bad. It's
supposed to it's bad right now too. It's supposed to
clear up by this evening. I don't think there's going
to be any issues in this Twins Cubs game tonight
because of a big front's blown in and it's gonna
(09:48):
get really windy and should get get the heck out
of here. So I don't know if anyone's ever had
to consider baking smoke impact into their projection, Sean, but
you have a side anatotal in this Twins Cubs game.
Bailey Ober against Colin Ray in this hopefully smokeless Wrigley Field.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
Yeah, I had to handicap the Cubs game a couple
weeks ago on July fourth, where they were playing through
the fireworks smog ended up having to delay the game
in the seventh or eighth inning. I had the under
there sweating that under waiting for the game to restart,
you know, amidst the fireworks smog. Thankfully, it ended up hitting.
There was a bunch of it it runs in that
game once they cleared up the field and the guys
(10:30):
could actually see the baseball coming in at them. But
I have the over and the Cubs in this matchup today.
As Colin said, this smog, the smoke could potentially delay things,
could potentially cancel this game, other games around the country.
Yankee Stadium looking like a potential threat to get canceled
as well. Something I wanted to point out. You know,
I thought there might be a theory that first game
(10:51):
after do All Star break for opening day, Opening Day
favorites tend to win, unders tend to do well because
you're number one starters pitching bullpen is fully rested. I
thought there might be something after the All Star break
as well, where your bullpen is fully rested, coming back,
going to use the top end relievers. Maybe Unders hit
a little bit more than the market expects. Not the
case at all past five years. Unders first game after
(11:13):
the All Star Break thirty one and fifty four just
thirty five percent. So nothing to the theory that Unders
may be a little bit more dominant first game of
the All Star breaks. I wanted to throw that out there,
get that out of the way, but win blowing out
at regularly Today temperture is going to be in the
low eighties, so not particularly hot. But I do not
like either of these starting pitchers. Colin Ray Bailey over
(11:36):
both project around replacement level for me, Bailey over eighty
seven pitching plus four to eight weighted fit projection. Ray
I have it a five and a ninety four pitching
plus expected indicators for those guys generally in the high fours.
Rays creeping up into the low fives in terms of
his rolling numbers. Both of these offenses really good as well.
(11:57):
Minnesota Twins offense has been underrated all year.
Speaker 4 (12:00):
Cubs.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
I believe Derek and I have talked previously projected his
second best offense. They're number three for me, but they're
right near the top of the league very high floor
with the amount of walks they take. They rate as
my best team for batter's eye and swing selectivity. And
then both these bullpens are terrible as well. Both project
in my bottom five bullpens. I have Minnesota twenty fifth,
(12:20):
I have the Cubs twenty sixth, and I make this
total about eleven and a quarter. I bet the over
ten and a half to minus one fifteen, and then
the Cubs minus one thirty five. I make closer to
minus one sixties, so the Cubs up to minus one
forty five. The over ten and a half to minus
one fifteen between the Cubs and the Twins. Hate the starters,
(12:41):
hate the bullpens, like both lineups, and we get the
one blowing up.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
Yeah, in terms of smoke impact today, from what I've
seen various weather reports out there, our biggest risks are
Dodgers Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and these are you know,
they could just postpone. It's just like rain rain outs. Essentially,
Dodgers Yankees is at rich and Pirates Guardians is at
big risk as well. And then two domed games where
(13:06):
maybe they postponed just because they don't want fans to
have to travel to the game. Marlin's Brewers in Milwaukee,
they can close the roof though they will close the
roof if they play, but wouldn't be surprised if they
do something there. And then White Sox Blue Jays in Toronto,
another roof closed game. But crazy stuff, crazy stuff out
there right now. All right, let's wrap up our eighty
(13:28):
grade section Sean with one more play.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
You have not.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Smoke impacted game. We're going out to Sacramento Nationals a's
Kate Cavali against Gage Jump. What do you got in
this one? Yeah?
Speaker 1 (13:40):
I make the Nats minus one thirty for the first
five inning, so I take their first five line only
up to minus one twenty two. Would not mess around
with the full game. Any Nationals bullpen. They're awful bullpen.
Here another reason why despite showing some value on the under,
probably going to stay away from that as well. But
just in terms of the rolling samples, Gage Jumps started
out great, has struggled in his recent starts. Kate Cavally
(14:02):
seems to continue to get better as he goes into
the season, drops more racial slurs against opposing hitters. No,
I think there was some miscommunication regarding what happened there.
He's been doing that since college. Apparently wouldn't shout boy
at opposing hitters anybody. But yeah, I think he learned
his lesson in terms of that, and I think there
was an actual misunderstanding in terms of his intentions in
(14:24):
that specific situation.
Speaker 4 (14:25):
But I love the way.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
Cake Vally pitches. Just a pure bulldog power pitcher, blowing
it through hitters, and he seems like he's gaining confidence
the more he's doing this into the season race or
the Nationals player development up and down the board absolutely
phenomenal this season with their new staff that they brought
in a lot of drive line employees, they're bringing their
GM from the Phillies. So very impressed by what the
Nats have done this year, and Kate Cavally among all
(14:48):
their guys. I mean, Kate Cavali is the guy Colin
We've been talking about on this pod for years at
this point. So I think he's finally hit his ceiling
and his potential, and he ranks as a top thirty pitcher.
For me, I have closer to sixty five, so that's
first five innings up to minus one twenty two. I
think this a's offense without Nick Kurtz is really weak
and disappointing, and Nationals have a not a substantial offensive
(15:13):
advantage here. But in my mind I much prefer their
lineup to the A's current lineup.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
Yeah no, Nick Kurtz, No, Nick Zach Gelloff. I believe
for the A's. Also, when I'm thel, we will see
Tommy Tanks for college baseball fans. O there Tommy White
coming up for the A's. Excited to see him make
his major league debut. But Nationals, Yeah, Kide Cavali, he
he blew up. He finally got his glow up right
(15:38):
after I sold all my Dynasty stock in him, so
I don't really care about him anymore. All right, That
does it for our eighty grade bets. Before we move
on to our sixty grade section. The World Cup is
wrapping up this Sunday. We've got our final between who
is at Spain and Argentina, So that means it's your
(15:58):
last chance to take advantage of our World Cup summer
sale for Action Pro. We've got brand new features for
the World Cup. We have money line over underspread and
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use for the World Cup Final this Sunday. See if
(16:18):
Lionel Messi to score acle is a plus EV or not.
Right now, Action Pro users can get three months of
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get one more match of the World Cup, but with
it being mid July, that also means you're going to
get the start of football season college football NFL also
(16:39):
through into October for all of our baseball projections from
Sean Zarrillo and also Sean Kerner's prop projections and his team.
So three months for the price of two an Action
Pro for our World Cup summer sale. All you have
to do is go to actionwk dot com slash pro
to get in on this off for so you can
(17:00):
become the smartest better you can be. All right, sixty
great sections, still quite a few bets to get through, Derek,
let's bring you back in. You have another pitcher prop
here in Cardinals Diamondbacks. Have the Cardinals officially announced the
starting picture you're projecting this guy, I haven't looked at
(17:21):
Emily dot Com. I'm assuming. I mean your projections are
going to be right. But you've got a prop here
Michael McGreevy for the Cardinals projected to start tonight.
Speaker 4 (17:30):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
I don't think he's officially announced yet, but he's kind
of expected to be the guy books have lines for him.
So we're gonna work under the assumption that he's starting today,
and we're gonna go under three and a half strikeouts.
Minus one thirty seven at Bett Rivers is the best
odds on the board. I like it down to minus
two hundred. There's a minus one fifty two at DraftKings
that's obviously still really good. McGreevy is a low strikeout,
(17:56):
low stuff pitcher to begin with, and he's facing an
arson own A Diamondbacks lineup that projects as the single
lowest strikeout lineup of the entire day. So this is
a good spot for the under for McGreevy. The bad
X is projecting about two point six strikeouts here, So again,
even if you have to take this down to like
minus two hundred, it still projects really well on the
(18:18):
under three and a half because we're a full strikeout under.
If books flip it to a two and a half,
which at some point I wouldn't be surprised if they do.
If you can get it at good plus money, again,
it's going to be close to a fifty to fifty shot,
So I would be totally fine taking the under two
and a half at like plus one thirty at plus
one forty if it winds up flipping to there as well.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Michael McGreevy a popular man in this show. Sean Zrillo
and I have talked about him quite a bit. If
you want to remember some guys, Derek, the guy that
we comped him to in the past is Kyle os.
She's our modern day Kyle Losh. Michael mcgreefy so love
that low strikeout guy, but still has had some efficient,
(19:00):
efficient starts out there. All right, Sean, you've got a
total here, You've got four totals here, well, three more totals,
But let's go to Padre's Royals first. Michael King against
Seth Lugo coming out of the break in this one.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Yeah, I'm gonna add a fourth total. Actually, I'm gonna
bet that Diamondbacks over. Now that I know for now
that it's likely to be McGreevy, I'd assumed it'd be
Andre Plante. I rate Polante much better than I rate McGreevy.
Plante pretty good ground ball rate, So probably gonna pivot
to the over in that Diamondbacks game over nine up
to about minus one twenty currently minus one fifteen. But
the other vets that I like on today's slate one
(19:34):
more under or one more over two more unders first
is Pirates and Guardians under seven and a half two
about minus one twenty five. I project this at six
point seven to five. Pirates currently down four regular hitters
Connor Griffin, O'nelkruz, Spencer Horwitz, and also Indie Rodriguezho's been
hitting really well prior to going on the IL. So
(19:56):
with the Pirates taking some offensive hits with the Guardians
having you re mirrors out, project both of these offenses
as below average, and I love both of these starting pitchers.
Jared Jones with a whiffer rate of thirty three percent
in his brief sample, seems like he's getting better with
more reps and Gavin Williams Sky have always been high
on expected FIPP of around three point one right now
(20:18):
Jones at three point four. It's both of these guys
rating well above average in my top thirty five starting
pitchers going against as I said, below average offenses on
this slate, Pirates offense can be a little bit of
a problem, but fully rested today again, I make this
total six point seventy five win blowing in not very
strong with wind blowing in from center field, tempts in
(20:41):
the blow eighties, so under seven and a half to
out minus one twenty five between the Pirates and Guardians.
One of my larger under edges and one of my
favorite bets on today's late.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
Got a player prop here from Derek that coincides or
is from the same game as one of your total seans.
Let's go to you for Marlin's Brewers again. We talked
about the uh, you know, if they play, the weather
won't affect them. It's just if they play, it'll be
more related to the fans or not. But it's Sandy
(21:13):
al Contra against Logan Henderson, and you are targeting a
hitter prop here in this one.
Speaker 2 (21:20):
Yes, I'm looking at Kyle Stowers to draw a walk.
Plus two point fifty at bet three sixty five is
the best odds on the board. There's also two thirty
three at DraftKings, and I like it down to plus
two to.
Speaker 4 (21:30):
Ten or so.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
There's nothing about this one that you know sticks out
matchup wise, like sometimes you can look at a play
and be like, all right, Michael McGreevey's a low strikeout guy.
He's facing this low strikeout offense. Like the projection makes sense.
It's it's obviously a strong under bet. This one is
kind of just like the projection system must see something
or the books must just have it priced a little
(21:53):
bit off, because I don't know why this one is
showing value, but it is showing value, so I'll take
it projects to win about thirty five percent of the time.
Getting it at plus two fifty is definitely good value
on that. So yeah, Kyle Stowers to draw.
Speaker 3 (22:06):
A walk and Sean you like you're you're on the
pitchers here in this one in Milwaukee, you have a
play on the total.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Yeah, under eight and even money down to about minus
one fifteen am expecting the roof to be closed here tonight.
If the roof were open, I'd probably be more in
line with the market. But assuming the roof will be
closed due to the fire and smoke coming down from
Canada would neutralize a potential boost for the offense given
the weather in Milwaukee today. Generally they do play with
(22:36):
at least the sides and part of the roof open
as opposed to closing that thing up. So love gooll
starting pitchers. Love the Bruers bullpen as well. Bruis project
as a top five bullpen for me. Logan Henderson, do
you have slight concerns about this spot off? He didn't
see a velocity dep He got hit a little bit
at the strek out of walk. Efficiency wasn't there, like
(22:57):
you would fully expect that the Brewers are going to
be very protective of their starting pitchers. They're not going
to throw them out there when they're injured. You see
them kind of shutting Jacob his Rowski down right now
a little bit. Brandon Woodruff had an injury, they're keeping
him protected. So I don't think the Brewers are going
to send guys out unless they think they're fully healthy,
because they know they're probably playing for a postseason at
(23:18):
this point, like in terms of saving their roster and
their arms, they know they're probably going to be a
wildcard team at worst unless they fully collapse it in
the second half, So you want those arms healthy for
the postseason. But Henderson projected really well from me all year,
sub three expected fit zero of three point three just
looks like another breakout guy. Amongst all the breakout guys
(23:39):
on this Brewer staff, Sandy pitches better than a shakeout
on as weall great, which is below league gaverage about
slightly Abouvelye average about thirteen percent. But he pitches so
much better than that because of all the ground balls
and all the weak contacts. So Marlins have been red hot.
They've been scoring a ton of runs. Brewers seem like
they always score more at home than they do on
the road. But the roof closed, like the under eight
(24:01):
to minus one fifteen between the Brewers and the Marlins.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
Yeah, Woodruff pretty sure done for the season. Quinn Priest
are done for the season there. Of course, they just
made a trade the other day, brought in Lance mccolors, and.
Speaker 1 (24:14):
They're going to turn him into a demon.
Speaker 4 (24:15):
We all know it.
Speaker 3 (24:16):
You know what. You know what My hot take about
that trade is Colton Gordon's the guy in that deal
that they got. They're going to turn Colton Gordon into
their new Tobias Myers. He's gonna be there like ultimate
swing man. That there's a lot left to do with
Colton Gordon than there is with Lance mccolors.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
So I wouldn't Lance as a reliever and you just go, yeah, knuckleball, fastball,
and that's it, her fastball, over and over and over again.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
For all the Brewers' tricks that they can pull to
optimize starting pitchers, one thing that they haven't figured out
is how to optimize their health. And that's what worries
me about Lanceo mccolors in Milwaukee. But Colton Gordon keep
an eye on him for sure. There as the secondary
part of that trade. All Right, Derek, we already talked
(25:01):
about this guy. I love that you have both of
these bets. Perfect world, both of them hit, but even
if one of them hit, you're obviously going to be Okay,
we're going back to our giant backup catcher. Could you
have another hit or prop on this guy.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
Yeah, it's a little counterintuitive to think of having this
bet along with the other one, but it's again, I'm
basing all this on math and projections, and it says
that this is plus ev two. So we're going with
Drew Kavanaugh again, and we're going with over one and
a half strikeouts plus two to twenty one at DraftKings
good down to plus one eighty nine. Kavanaugh is a
(25:36):
guy who I said again was pretty good in the minors,
but did strike out.
Speaker 4 (25:42):
At a at a decent clip.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
Only strike out twenty three percent of the time in
the Major so far this year in a small sample.
But you look at fangrafs and every projection system has
h more of like a thirty percent strikeout guy. So
that's really what we're looking at here, I think with
Kavanaugh facing a picture in Bryce Miller, who obviously does
have good strikeout stuff.
Speaker 4 (26:01):
So yeah, the over one and a half K's looks
pretty good.
Speaker 3 (26:06):
And Sean we I think we skipped over Padres Royals.
You still got to talk about that total, right.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Yes, yeah, over ten up to ten and a half
at even money between the Padres and the Royals. I
think the number has essentially gotten up there, so there's
not a ton of value left in the line. Kind
of why I pushed it down the order of priority here.
But win blowing out in Kansas City today out to
left field. Just both of these offenses have been incredibly disappointing,
and I've found it difficult to pull the trigger on
(26:36):
the over in games that either of these teams are
playing because it generally seems like my projection is higher
than market, especially for these Royals games at Kaufman, but
I do think both are due for positive regression. It's
good to see the market move in concert with my
bet perform much better when we're getting clb on totals
as opposed to when they're staying flat. So over up
(26:57):
to ten and a half at even money between Case
and San Diego today. Just the worry here, as the
worry is in any Podres game, they get out to
a lead and then all the elite relievers start coming
in and the scoring is just going to completely stop
in the late inning. So worth keeping an eye when
you have a Podres over Pottery's going to lead, keep
it relatively small. Always look at the live owners in
(27:20):
these Padres games, because you know Mason Miller is going
to give you a free zero at the end of
the game, and you know morrohone and Adam are probably
going to follow him up in the seventh and eighth
with zeros as well. So live under. But the pregame
over ten and a half at even money between the
pods of the Rows.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
All right, last game to talk about here in the
sixty grade section is Twins and Cubs. Sean you already
talked about liking the over here. Derek likes offense in
this one as well. Derek, last week we came on
here and you had a whole bunch of bets on
the Reds Cubs game. You're looking at the offense there,
(27:59):
and that showed him Naga Hunter Green matchup. The funny
thing about that is that game only ended four to nothing,
but it was still a very successful game because that
game had two home runs and it was two of
the guys you bet. Ellie de la Cruz went Deep,
JJ Blede Went Deep. Ended up being a really nice
dat despite the fact that Hunter Green shoved and it
was just a ford to nothing final. Today, Sean Zarrillo
(28:22):
is on over ten and a half, and you like
dingers at Wrigley today, let's just get get all of
them out of the way. You got two here in
the sixty grade section. You've got a twin hitter and
a Cubs hitter, and then two more Cubs down in
the forty grade section. So let's whip through all four
of them right now. Because you like offense today a Wrigley,
(28:44):
I do.
Speaker 4 (28:44):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
So the first two that I like are Cody Clemens
plus three twenty five at bet three sixty five, also
a plus three hundred at FanDuel Good down to plus
two to sixty five. Then Michael Bush plus three twenty
five at bet three six five. There's also a plus
two eighty at DraftKings now like it down to plus
two seventy. And then in the one star section Alex
(29:04):
Brigman plus four ninety five at Polymarket Good down to
plus four forty five, and Dansby Swanson plus four fifty
at the Score also a plus four to twenty at
FanDuel Good down to plus three ninety three.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
I like offense here. We know that Wrigley wind matters.
Speaker 2 (29:24):
The wind is not anything crazy today, but it is
about five to ten miles per hour, which in Wrigley
is still like, you know, twenty five to thirty anywhere else.
I think the market is not quite accounting for it
as well as it should be, maybe because it is
so you know, so low, but in Wrigley doesn't matter.
It's still still pretty impactful. So so yeah, looking at
(29:47):
the over on all four of these guys.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
Yeah, wind out to left center eighty five degrees. Once
we get that smoke out of there, I feel like
the ball is going to be bouncing at Wrigley, So
very exciting h potential there with Sean on the over
and Derek on the home runs offense in Chicago tonight hopefully.
All right, let's wrap things up with the one star section. Sean,
(30:10):
you're done for the day, but Derek has it looks
like three more bets we can whip through real quick.
A couple games we haven't talked about yet, or I
guess just one we haven't talked about yet, and it
is Tiger's Angels out in Anaheim. Nice little pitching matchup here.
I like both these guys. One of them might be
on the move by the deadline if the Angels are smart.
Troy Melton against Reed Debtmers in Anaheim, and you're on
(30:34):
the Debtmers bandwagon tonight, Derek.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
Yes, read Debtmers to record a win plus two twenty
at bet three six five. There's also a two to
eleven at DraftKings, and I like it down to plus
one eighty seven. Debtmers is a guy who is better
than his numbers. His surface numbers indicate he has like
a four I think like a four to thirty era
and like a three eighty x FIP This is an
(30:59):
Angel's offense that I think is better now than the
full season numbers indicate fullally healthy now, They've been a
blow average offense this year, but they project as a
slightly above average offense in the bad X. So between
the two, I like the win for Detmers here at
the odds that we're being given, all.
Speaker 3 (31:18):
Right, And then let's wrap things up with a couple
more Derek Cardi specials. Some hits props for some obscure players.
One in a Pirates Guardians, one in nationals Athletics. We
have Khalil Watson and Andre Chaparo.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
Yes, Khlil Watson under half a hit plus one ten
at the score. There's also a plus one of six
at DraftKings. I like it down to minus one oh six.
Khlail Watson is a guy who will hit in the
middle of the order, but when the bullpen comes in,
he has a fifty four percent chance of getting pinch
hit four. And he's facing a pitcher in Jared Jones
who coming off injury this year. They are not allowing
(32:03):
him to go deep at all. He had the was
it a no hitter or a perfect game going in
his last time out, and they still pulled him at
less than eighty pitches, So this is a good spot
for Watson to get pulled with only maybe two or
three at bats. So under here for Watson, and then Chaparo,
another guy who has a high pinch hit risk. I
(32:25):
think he's like over seventy percent when I looked, Yeah,
seventy four percent chance of getting pinch hit four once
the bullpen comes in, facing a pitcher engaged jump who
has looked pretty good.
Speaker 4 (32:36):
So far in the majors.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
And oh and the the odds are under half a
hit plus one thirty seven at DraftKings good down to
plus one eighteen.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
If you thought we'd come tiptoeing in from the All
Star break, you thought wrong. That is twenty one bets.
I believe that we just gave out in about a
half hour. And I'll throw one more out there. Because
you guys are so heavy on twins. Cut us Sean,
tell me your thoughts on this, We go Cubs money line,
which you like, we go over ten and a half,
which you like. And then Derek's two sixty great home
(33:10):
run bets Michael Bush, Cody Clemmens about twenty eight to
one at fan.
Speaker 1 (33:14):
Duel bombs out.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Love it all right?
Speaker 2 (33:18):
I like that?
Speaker 3 (33:19):
All right. That's gonna do it. For today's episode of
Payoff Pitch, Thanks so much for tuning in. If you'd
like to tail some of the bets from today's episode,
look for the quick slip links in the episode description.
Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network app. Also,
please leave us a five star rating and review wherever
you listen to the podcast. We will be back on
Monday with more MLB best bets for Shanzaillo and Derek Cardi.
(33:41):
I'm Collen Richards. Thanks so much for listening to Payoff
Pitch Action Networks major League Baseball Betting podcast. Good luck
with all your bets, and have a great look at
his crowd on his free What Trigger No What Wants
(34:04):
to Leave h
There's that flying a tank.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Ball, no crying, and this game's underway.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
Into the line up it is springs, stop bringing jobs
the bit out sign. Here's a drive in a deep
bliftfield by Castianos. It will be a home run.
Speaker 4 (00:19):
To field.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
And hello dude, coming up. You talk about a roll
at the.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Dice, this is it.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch. Welcome in to Payoff Pitch. Action
Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast. It is Friday, July seventeenth.
I'm Colin Whitchurch, joined today by Action Network Senior MLB
analyst Schaan Zarrillo, as well as Derek Carty, the creator
(00:51):
of the bat x projection system. We're going to break
down this entire fifteen game slay. It looks like they're
is oh, sixteen games plate. We got a double header
today Raisin Red Sox. Game one of that doubleheader getting
started about one thirty Eastern today. But it's a weird day.
(01:12):
We're out of the All Star break. We're fresh, we
are ready to go, and we've got a lot of
bets on the card for this slate. Derek Cardy, let's
start with you for this eighty grade section. The three
star betting section, and you are going with this is
(01:34):
not exactly a big name, not exactly a high profile game,
but value is value. Right. We have the Rockies and
Reds it Coors tonight, and you're targeting the Rockies starting pitcher.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Yes, starting for the Rockies tonight is Gabriel Hughes, and
I'm going under four and a half strikeouts. Plus one
oh eight at Bette Rivers is the best odds on
the board. There's also so plus one h two at
FanDuel pretty widely available, and I like it down to
minus one thirty five.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
Hughes is not a major prospect.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
The most important thing here is that he's not a
guy that they generally, at least in the miners have
let go super deep into games in course field. Unlikely
he'll be able to because he'll be get getting hit
around course field, we know, because of the altitude really
suppresses strikeouts. So this is one that the bad has projected,
has projected really well, only about four strikeouts here for Hughes.
(02:33):
About a sixty three percent chance that he goes under
the four and a half. And you can find it
at you know, plus or even money pretty much everywhere.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
All right, Gabriel hughes under four and a half strikeouts.
That's Derek Carty's first bet. Sean, your first bet of
the day is in that aforementioned double header. Raise Red Socks.
You have a side on one of these games in
this matchup.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Yeah, apologies, think video just dropped out for a second.
So raise Red Sox. Taking the Rays down to about
minus one or two, I make them minus one ten
in this game. Project them about six points better in
terms of offensive quality WRC plus. Enjoyed seeing the video
from All Star weekend of the All Stars talking about
their favorite offensive stats, James Wood shouting out WRC plus,
(03:21):
Verbin Perrel shouting out expected wOBA. Happy to see this
young generation of baseball players or as much of nerds
as we are, or at least moderately on the nerds scale.
But six points better in terms of WRC plus for
the Raised offense comp to the Red Sox offense. Griffin
Jacks has the better stuff profile, projects five points better
in terms of pitching plus strike at minus walk great
(03:44):
slightly better for Jacks as well. Red Sox with a
slightly better bullpen and also the better defensive team, but
still get the raised about minus one ten here and
as I discussed on a couple podcasts last week, not
on Payoff Pitch specifically, but on other shows. I think
the raise, if you're looking for a value bet to
win the World Series right now, raise at seventeen to
one really the one thing that popped. As I've said,
(04:07):
they have full intentions of adding at the trade deadline,
So I think this Race team is going to look
a lot better in a couple of weeks than it
does right now. It's the winning on that Aaron Judge
injury return news. But raise Ale Penn and about plus
five to fifty, Raise Ale or raise World Series about
seventeen to one the two bets from a World Series
pen and perspective that are popping currently.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Raise talking about adding at the deadline, Marlins reports recently
say they are intending on adding at the deadline. Very
wild stuff going on. It's gonna be a weird, weird
trade deadline with not that many obvious sellers, especially in
the jumbled American League where there doesn't seem to be
any really great teams. Let's jump over to the Mariners
(04:51):
and Giant Derek, you have a prop on this game, Sean,
you also have a side on this game, so we'll
go to you right after that, Derek, you're targeting Mariner's
starting pitcher here, Bryce Miller going up against Landon Roupe
here in Seattle tonight.
Speaker 4 (05:08):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
I'm looking at Bryce Miller under seventeen and a half
outs plus one thirty six at poly Markets, the best
odds on the board. I like it down to minus
one twenty five, so you can find this pretty much everywhere.
This is I think the bad axes highest highest projected
ROI play of the day, projecting only about a sixty
percent chance that he completes the sixth inning, and we're
(05:30):
getting really big plus money on it. As bad as
San Francisco has been this year, there's still like a
league average offense. Their offense is actually not terrible. And
Bryce Miller, even though he's not being piggybacked anymore, it
feels almost like the market is overreacting to Okay, now
he's not being piggybacked, so he's gonna have, you know,
(05:51):
a really high chance of completing six innings and that
really hasn't even been the case in his starts where
he hasn't been piggybacked. So again the projection is a
little under sixteen outs on average, so definitely getting some
good value on this one.
Speaker 3 (06:04):
And you have another prop from this game as well,
I just realized. But Sean, let's get your take here
on the side again, Giants Mariners landing roupe against Bryce Miller.
Where you see value in this one?
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Yeah, I make the Mariners about minus one seventy five,
so anything up to minus one sixty is fine. I'm
projecting Huli Rodriguez to come back today. It seems like
reports are indicating he should be coming off with the
concussion il today. The people who implement lineups for my
model did not have him in today, so that was
a manual adjustment I had to make based off of
the news. But the point is, I think if you're
(06:36):
doing and using automated lineup services or automated lineup tools,
I think a lot of people didn't have lu Rodriguez
in there for today, and as a result, the market
seems a little bit shy of where it should be
for this matchup. So that is the main takeaway. You know,
the Mariners' lineup I think should be a little bit
better projection wise for this game. Then a lot of
people have it with Julio Beck in it. Hopefully it's
(06:58):
back to full strength coming off of a concussion I owe.
But yeah, Mariner's up to minus one sixty my bet
not game, and.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Then Derek to close out our Mariners giant section. At
least for now, you have a backup, a backup catcher,
backup catcher special here, and it's not. You have another
bet on this guy that will get to in the
sixty grade section. But this is not the direction I
would expect you to go if you're betting on a
backup catcher. So tell us about this bet.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
No, it's weird.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
I don't usually go to this market very often, certainly
not for backup catchers. But it's it's just a straight
math play. It's showing really good value, so I'm gonna
take it. It's Drew Cavanaugh to record an RBI at
plus four twenty five at bet three sixty five. I
like it down to about three thirty five or so.
There's a three forty at Caesars, there's a three forty
(07:48):
one at DraftKings. Yeah, Drew Cavanaugh is nothing special, but
he is better than he's actually been in a small
sample major league career.
Speaker 4 (07:59):
Kind of tore up triple A this year tore up
double A.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
He projects as an above average backup catcher, which is
not amazing, but it's not nothing either, especially when we're
being offered really high odds here.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
So really it's just it's a math play.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
The bad X thinks there's about a twenty five percent
chance he gets an RBI. We're being given nineteen percent
implied odds, So yeah, there's value.
Speaker 3 (08:24):
Drew Cavanaugh, former seventeenth round pick of the Giants. He
went to two different schools in college, Seawan. I know
you're you went to school in Florida. Have you ever
heard of these schools? He went to Eastern Florida State
College in Cocoa, Florida, and Florida Southern College in Lakeland, Florida.
Are those on your radar or not? Either of those
on my radar? No? Yeah, all right, Drew Cavanaugh to
(08:45):
get an RBI. Love that. Twelve career games for Kavanaugh,
thirty eight career played appearances, two career RBIs, So this
is very much a Derek Cardi special. Love it, Sean,
You've got two more money line plays here, one of
them you got. You've got a total down in the
sixty grade section. So let's get to that one first.
(09:05):
You know, we're talking a lot about We were talking
before we came on about the smoke coming across a
lot of parts of the United States affecting weather. The
air quality in Chicago yesterday was historically bad. I don't
know a lot about aqui. I'm not a meteorologist. It
goes from one to five hundred, they said normally, and
(09:26):
we're hitting around seven hundred in Chicago yesterday. You walk
outside your front door and it was like you're standing
in front of a bonfire and the wind change direction,
blowing in your face. It was really, really bad. It's
supposed to it's bad right now too. It's supposed to
clear up by this evening. I don't think there's going
to be any issues in this Twins Cubs game tonight
because of a big front's blown in and it's gonna
(09:48):
get really windy and should get get the heck out
of here. So I don't know if anyone's ever had
to consider baking smoke impact into their projection, Sean, but
you have a side anatotal in this Twins Cubs game.
Bailey Ober against Colin Ray in this hopefully smokeless Wrigley Field.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
Yeah, I had to handicap the Cubs game a couple
weeks ago on July fourth, where they were playing through
the fireworks smog ended up having to delay the game
in the seventh or eighth inning. I had the under
there sweating that under waiting for the game to restart,
you know, amidst the fireworks smog. Thankfully, it ended up hitting.
There was a bunch of it it runs in that
game once they cleared up the field and the guys
(10:30):
could actually see the baseball coming in at them. But
I have the over and the Cubs in this matchup today.
As Colin said, this smog, the smoke could potentially delay things,
could potentially cancel this game, other games around the country.
Yankee Stadium looking like a potential threat to get canceled
as well. Something I wanted to point out. You know,
I thought there might be a theory that first game
(10:51):
after do All Star break for opening day, Opening Day
favorites tend to win, unders tend to do well because
you're number one starters pitching bullpen is fully rested. I
thought there might be something after the All Star break
as well, where your bullpen is fully rested, coming back,
going to use the top end relievers. Maybe Unders hit
a little bit more than the market expects. Not the
case at all past five years. Unders first game after
(11:13):
the All Star Break thirty one and fifty four just
thirty five percent. So nothing to the theory that Unders
may be a little bit more dominant first game of
the All Star breaks. I wanted to throw that out there,
get that out of the way, but win blowing out
at regularly Today temperture is going to be in the
low eighties, so not particularly hot. But I do not
like either of these starting pitchers. Colin Ray Bailey over
(11:36):
both project around replacement level for me, Bailey over eighty
seven pitching plus four to eight weighted fit projection. Ray
I have it a five and a ninety four pitching
plus expected indicators for those guys generally in the high fours.
Rays creeping up into the low fives in terms of
his rolling numbers. Both of these offenses really good as well.
(11:57):
Minnesota Twins offense has been underrated all year.
Speaker 4 (12:00):
Cubs.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
I believe Derek and I have talked previously projected his
second best offense. They're number three for me, but they're
right near the top of the league very high floor
with the amount of walks they take. They rate as
my best team for batter's eye and swing selectivity. And
then both these bullpens are terrible as well. Both project
in my bottom five bullpens. I have Minnesota twenty fifth,
(12:20):
I have the Cubs twenty sixth, and I make this
total about eleven and a quarter. I bet the over
ten and a half to minus one fifteen, and then
the Cubs minus one thirty five. I make closer to
minus one sixties, so the Cubs up to minus one
forty five. The over ten and a half to minus
one fifteen between the Cubs and the Twins. Hate the starters,
(12:41):
hate the bullpens, like both lineups, and we get the
one blowing up.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
Yeah, in terms of smoke impact today, from what I've
seen various weather reports out there, our biggest risks are
Dodgers Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and these are you know,
they could just postpone. It's just like rain rain outs. Essentially,
Dodgers Yankees is at rich and Pirates Guardians is at
big risk as well. And then two domed games where
(13:06):
maybe they postponed just because they don't want fans to
have to travel to the game. Marlin's Brewers in Milwaukee,
they can close the roof though they will close the
roof if they play, but wouldn't be surprised if they
do something there. And then White Sox Blue Jays in Toronto,
another roof closed game. But crazy stuff, crazy stuff out
there right now. All right, let's wrap up our eighty
(13:28):
grade section Sean with one more play.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
You have not.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Smoke impacted game. We're going out to Sacramento Nationals a's
Kate Cavali against Gage Jump. What do you got in
this one? Yeah?
Speaker 1 (13:40):
I make the Nats minus one thirty for the first
five inning, so I take their first five line only
up to minus one twenty two. Would not mess around
with the full game. Any Nationals bullpen. They're awful bullpen.
Here another reason why despite showing some value on the under,
probably going to stay away from that as well. But
just in terms of the rolling samples, Gage Jumps started
out great, has struggled in his recent starts. Kate Cavally
(14:02):
seems to continue to get better as he goes into
the season, drops more racial slurs against opposing hitters. No,
I think there was some miscommunication regarding what happened there.
He's been doing that since college. Apparently wouldn't shout boy
at opposing hitters anybody. But yeah, I think he learned
his lesson in terms of that, and I think there
was an actual misunderstanding in terms of his intentions in
(14:24):
that specific situation.
Speaker 4 (14:25):
But I love the way.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
Cake Vally pitches. Just a pure bulldog power pitcher, blowing
it through hitters, and he seems like he's gaining confidence
the more he's doing this into the season race or
the Nationals player development up and down the board absolutely
phenomenal this season with their new staff that they brought
in a lot of drive line employees, they're bringing their
GM from the Phillies. So very impressed by what the
Nats have done this year, and Kate Cavally among all
(14:48):
their guys. I mean, Kate Cavali is the guy Colin
We've been talking about on this pod for years at
this point. So I think he's finally hit his ceiling
and his potential, and he ranks as a top thirty pitcher.
For me, I have closer to sixty five, so that's
first five innings up to minus one twenty two. I
think this a's offense without Nick Kurtz is really weak
and disappointing, and Nationals have a not a substantial offensive
(15:13):
advantage here. But in my mind I much prefer their
lineup to the A's current lineup.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
Yeah no, Nick Kurtz, No, Nick Zach Gelloff. I believe
for the A's. Also, when I'm thel, we will see
Tommy Tanks for college baseball fans. O there Tommy White
coming up for the A's. Excited to see him make
his major league debut. But Nationals, Yeah, Kide Cavali, he
he blew up. He finally got his glow up right
(15:38):
after I sold all my Dynasty stock in him, so
I don't really care about him anymore. All right, That
does it for our eighty grade bets. Before we move
on to our sixty grade section. The World Cup is
wrapping up this Sunday. We've got our final between who
is at Spain and Argentina, So that means it's your
(15:58):
last chance to take advantage of our World Cup summer
sale for Action Pro. We've got brand new features for
the World Cup. We have money line over underspread and
player prop projections like anytime goal scorers, which you can
use for the World Cup Final this Sunday. See if
(16:18):
Lionel Messi to score acle is a plus EV or not.
Right now, Action Pro users can get three months of
Action Pro for the price of two. Yes, you only
get one more match of the World Cup, but with
it being mid July, that also means you're going to
get the start of football season college football NFL also
(16:39):
through into October for all of our baseball projections from
Sean Zarrillo and also Sean Kerner's prop projections and his team.
So three months for the price of two an Action
Pro for our World Cup summer sale. All you have
to do is go to actionwk dot com slash pro
to get in on this off for so you can
(17:00):
become the smartest better you can be. All right, sixty
great sections, still quite a few bets to get through, Derek,
let's bring you back in. You have another pitcher prop
here in Cardinals Diamondbacks. Have the Cardinals officially announced the
starting picture you're projecting this guy, I haven't looked at
(17:21):
Emily dot Com. I'm assuming. I mean your projections are
going to be right. But you've got a prop here
Michael McGreevy for the Cardinals projected to start tonight.
Speaker 4 (17:30):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
I don't think he's officially announced yet, but he's kind
of expected to be the guy books have lines for him.
So we're gonna work under the assumption that he's starting today,
and we're gonna go under three and a half strikeouts.
Minus one thirty seven at Bett Rivers is the best
odds on the board. I like it down to minus
two hundred. There's a minus one fifty two at DraftKings
that's obviously still really good. McGreevy is a low strikeout,
(17:56):
low stuff pitcher to begin with, and he's facing an
arson own A Diamondbacks lineup that projects as the single
lowest strikeout lineup of the entire day. So this is
a good spot for the under for McGreevy. The bad
X is projecting about two point six strikeouts here, So again,
even if you have to take this down to like
minus two hundred, it still projects really well on the
(18:18):
under three and a half because we're a full strikeout under.
If books flip it to a two and a half,
which at some point I wouldn't be surprised if they do.
If you can get it at good plus money, again,
it's going to be close to a fifty to fifty shot,
So I would be totally fine taking the under two
and a half at like plus one thirty at plus
one forty if it winds up flipping to there as well.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Michael McGreevy a popular man in this show. Sean Zrillo
and I have talked about him quite a bit. If
you want to remember some guys, Derek, the guy that
we comped him to in the past is Kyle os.
She's our modern day Kyle Losh. Michael mcgreefy so love
that low strikeout guy, but still has had some efficient,
(19:00):
efficient starts out there. All right, Sean, you've got a
total here, You've got four totals here, well, three more totals,
But let's go to Padre's Royals first. Michael King against
Seth Lugo coming out of the break in this one.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Yeah, I'm gonna add a fourth total. Actually, I'm gonna
bet that Diamondbacks over. Now that I know for now
that it's likely to be McGreevy, I'd assumed it'd be
Andre Plante. I rate Polante much better than I rate McGreevy.
Plante pretty good ground ball rate, So probably gonna pivot
to the over in that Diamondbacks game over nine up
to about minus one twenty currently minus one fifteen. But
the other vets that I like on today's slate one
(19:34):
more under or one more over two more unders first
is Pirates and Guardians under seven and a half two
about minus one twenty five. I project this at six
point seven to five. Pirates currently down four regular hitters
Connor Griffin, O'nelkruz, Spencer Horwitz, and also Indie Rodriguezho's been
hitting really well prior to going on the IL. So
(19:56):
with the Pirates taking some offensive hits with the Guardians
having you re mirrors out, project both of these offenses
as below average, and I love both of these starting pitchers.
Jared Jones with a whiffer rate of thirty three percent
in his brief sample, seems like he's getting better with
more reps and Gavin Williams Sky have always been high
on expected FIPP of around three point one right now
(20:18):
Jones at three point four. It's both of these guys
rating well above average in my top thirty five starting
pitchers going against as I said, below average offenses on
this slate, Pirates offense can be a little bit of
a problem, but fully rested today again, I make this
total six point seventy five win blowing in not very
strong with wind blowing in from center field, tempts in
(20:41):
the blow eighties, so under seven and a half to
out minus one twenty five between the Pirates and Guardians.
One of my larger under edges and one of my
favorite bets on today's late.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
Got a player prop here from Derek that coincides or
is from the same game as one of your total seans.
Let's go to you for Marlin's Brewers again. We talked
about the uh, you know, if they play, the weather
won't affect them. It's just if they play, it'll be
more related to the fans or not. But it's Sandy
(21:13):
al Contra against Logan Henderson, and you are targeting a
hitter prop here in this one.
Speaker 2 (21:20):
Yes, I'm looking at Kyle Stowers to draw a walk.
Plus two point fifty at bet three sixty five is
the best odds on the board. There's also two thirty
three at DraftKings, and I like it down to plus
two to.
Speaker 4 (21:30):
Ten or so.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
There's nothing about this one that you know sticks out
matchup wise, like sometimes you can look at a play
and be like, all right, Michael McGreevey's a low strikeout guy.
He's facing this low strikeout offense. Like the projection makes sense.
It's it's obviously a strong under bet. This one is
kind of just like the projection system must see something
or the books must just have it priced a little
(21:53):
bit off, because I don't know why this one is
showing value, but it is showing value, so I'll take
it projects to win about thirty five percent of the time.
Getting it at plus two fifty is definitely good value
on that. So yeah, Kyle Stowers to draw.
Speaker 3 (22:06):
A walk and Sean you like you're you're on the
pitchers here in this one in Milwaukee, you have a
play on the total.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Yeah, under eight and even money down to about minus
one fifteen am expecting the roof to be closed here tonight.
If the roof were open, I'd probably be more in
line with the market. But assuming the roof will be
closed due to the fire and smoke coming down from
Canada would neutralize a potential boost for the offense given
the weather in Milwaukee today. Generally they do play with
(22:36):
at least the sides and part of the roof open
as opposed to closing that thing up. So love gooll
starting pitchers. Love the Bruers bullpen as well. Bruis project
as a top five bullpen for me. Logan Henderson, do
you have slight concerns about this spot off? He didn't
see a velocity dep He got hit a little bit
at the strek out of walk. Efficiency wasn't there, like
(22:57):
you would fully expect that the Brewers are going to
be very protective of their starting pitchers. They're not going
to throw them out there when they're injured. You see
them kind of shutting Jacob his Rowski down right now
a little bit. Brandon Woodruff had an injury, they're keeping
him protected. So I don't think the Brewers are going
to send guys out unless they think they're fully healthy,
because they know they're probably playing for a postseason at
(23:18):
this point, like in terms of saving their roster and
their arms, they know they're probably going to be a
wildcard team at worst unless they fully collapse it in
the second half, So you want those arms healthy for
the postseason. But Henderson projected really well from me all year,
sub three expected fit zero of three point three just
looks like another breakout guy. Amongst all the breakout guys
(23:39):
on this Brewer staff, Sandy pitches better than a shakeout
on as weall great, which is below league gaverage about
slightly Abouvelye average about thirteen percent. But he pitches so
much better than that because of all the ground balls
and all the weak contacts. So Marlins have been red hot.
They've been scoring a ton of runs. Brewers seem like
they always score more at home than they do on
the road. But the roof closed, like the under eight
(24:01):
to minus one fifteen between the Brewers and the Marlins.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
Yeah, Woodruff pretty sure done for the season. Quinn Priest
are done for the season there. Of course, they just
made a trade the other day, brought in Lance mccolors, and.
Speaker 1 (24:14):
They're going to turn him into a demon.
Speaker 4 (24:15):
We all know it.
Speaker 3 (24:16):
You know what. You know what My hot take about
that trade is Colton Gordon's the guy in that deal
that they got. They're going to turn Colton Gordon into
their new Tobias Myers. He's gonna be there like ultimate
swing man. That there's a lot left to do with
Colton Gordon than there is with Lance mccolors.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
So I wouldn't Lance as a reliever and you just go, yeah, knuckleball, fastball,
and that's it, her fastball, over and over and over again.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
For all the Brewers' tricks that they can pull to
optimize starting pitchers, one thing that they haven't figured out
is how to optimize their health. And that's what worries
me about Lanceo mccolors in Milwaukee. But Colton Gordon keep
an eye on him for sure. There as the secondary
part of that trade. All Right, Derek, we already talked
(25:01):
about this guy. I love that you have both of
these bets. Perfect world, both of them hit, but even
if one of them hit, you're obviously going to be Okay,
we're going back to our giant backup catcher. Could you
have another hit or prop on this guy.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
Yeah, it's a little counterintuitive to think of having this
bet along with the other one, but it's again, I'm
basing all this on math and projections, and it says
that this is plus ev two. So we're going with
Drew Kavanaugh again, and we're going with over one and
a half strikeouts plus two to twenty one at DraftKings
good down to plus one eighty nine. Kavanaugh is a
(25:36):
guy who I said again was pretty good in the minors,
but did strike out.
Speaker 4 (25:42):
At a at a decent clip.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
Only strike out twenty three percent of the time in
the Major so far this year in a small sample.
But you look at fangrafs and every projection system has
h more of like a thirty percent strikeout guy. So
that's really what we're looking at here, I think with
Kavanaugh facing a picture in Bryce Miller, who obviously does
have good strikeout stuff.
Speaker 4 (26:01):
So yeah, the over one and a half K's looks
pretty good.
Speaker 3 (26:06):
And Sean we I think we skipped over Padres Royals.
You still got to talk about that total, right.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Yes, yeah, over ten up to ten and a half
at even money between the Padres and the Royals. I
think the number has essentially gotten up there, so there's
not a ton of value left in the line. Kind
of why I pushed it down the order of priority here.
But win blowing out in Kansas City today out to
left field. Just both of these offenses have been incredibly disappointing,
and I've found it difficult to pull the trigger on
(26:36):
the over in games that either of these teams are
playing because it generally seems like my projection is higher
than market, especially for these Royals games at Kaufman, but
I do think both are due for positive regression. It's
good to see the market move in concert with my
bet perform much better when we're getting clb on totals
as opposed to when they're staying flat. So over up
(26:57):
to ten and a half at even money between Case
and San Diego today. Just the worry here, as the
worry is in any Podres game, they get out to
a lead and then all the elite relievers start coming
in and the scoring is just going to completely stop
in the late inning. So worth keeping an eye when
you have a Podres over Pottery's going to lead, keep
it relatively small. Always look at the live owners in
(27:20):
these Padres games, because you know Mason Miller is going
to give you a free zero at the end of
the game, and you know morrohone and Adam are probably
going to follow him up in the seventh and eighth
with zeros as well. So live under. But the pregame
over ten and a half at even money between the
pods of the Rows.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
All right, last game to talk about here in the
sixty grade section is Twins and Cubs. Sean you already
talked about liking the over here. Derek likes offense in
this one as well. Derek, last week we came on
here and you had a whole bunch of bets on
the Reds Cubs game. You're looking at the offense there,
(27:59):
and that showed him Naga Hunter Green matchup. The funny
thing about that is that game only ended four to nothing,
but it was still a very successful game because that
game had two home runs and it was two of
the guys you bet. Ellie de la Cruz went Deep,
JJ Blede Went Deep. Ended up being a really nice
dat despite the fact that Hunter Green shoved and it
was just a ford to nothing final. Today, Sean Zarrillo
(28:22):
is on over ten and a half, and you like
dingers at Wrigley today, let's just get get all of
them out of the way. You got two here in
the sixty grade section. You've got a twin hitter and
a Cubs hitter, and then two more Cubs down in
the forty grade section. So let's whip through all four
of them right now. Because you like offense today a Wrigley,
(28:44):
I do.
Speaker 4 (28:44):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
So the first two that I like are Cody Clemens
plus three twenty five at bet three sixty five, also
a plus three hundred at FanDuel Good down to plus
two to sixty five. Then Michael Bush plus three twenty
five at bet three six five. There's also a plus
two eighty at DraftKings now like it down to plus
two seventy. And then in the one star section Alex
(29:04):
Brigman plus four ninety five at Polymarket Good down to
plus four forty five, and Dansby Swanson plus four fifty
at the Score also a plus four to twenty at
FanDuel Good down to plus three ninety three.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
I like offense here. We know that Wrigley wind matters.
Speaker 2 (29:24):
The wind is not anything crazy today, but it is
about five to ten miles per hour, which in Wrigley
is still like, you know, twenty five to thirty anywhere else.
I think the market is not quite accounting for it
as well as it should be, maybe because it is
so you know, so low, but in Wrigley doesn't matter.
It's still still pretty impactful. So so yeah, looking at
(29:47):
the over on all four of these guys.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
Yeah, wind out to left center eighty five degrees. Once
we get that smoke out of there, I feel like
the ball is going to be bouncing at Wrigley, So
very exciting h potential there with Sean on the over
and Derek on the home runs offense in Chicago tonight hopefully.
All right, let's wrap things up with the one star section. Sean,
(30:10):
you're done for the day, but Derek has it looks
like three more bets we can whip through real quick.
A couple games we haven't talked about yet, or I
guess just one we haven't talked about yet, and it
is Tiger's Angels out in Anaheim. Nice little pitching matchup here.
I like both these guys. One of them might be
on the move by the deadline if the Angels are smart.
Troy Melton against Reed Debtmers in Anaheim, and you're on
(30:34):
the Debtmers bandwagon tonight, Derek.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
Yes, read Debtmers to record a win plus two twenty
at bet three six five. There's also a two to
eleven at DraftKings, and I like it down to plus
one eighty seven. Debtmers is a guy who is better
than his numbers. His surface numbers indicate he has like
a four I think like a four to thirty era
and like a three eighty x FIP This is an
(30:59):
Angel's offense that I think is better now than the
full season numbers indicate fullally healthy now, They've been a
blow average offense this year, but they project as a
slightly above average offense in the bad X. So between
the two, I like the win for Detmers here at
the odds that we're being given, all.
Speaker 3 (31:18):
Right, And then let's wrap things up with a couple
more Derek Cardi specials. Some hits props for some obscure players.
One in a Pirates Guardians, one in nationals Athletics. We
have Khalil Watson and Andre Chaparo.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
Yes, Khlil Watson under half a hit plus one ten
at the score. There's also a plus one of six
at DraftKings. I like it down to minus one oh six.
Khlail Watson is a guy who will hit in the
middle of the order, but when the bullpen comes in,
he has a fifty four percent chance of getting pinch
hit four. And he's facing a pitcher in Jared Jones
who coming off injury this year. They are not allowing
(32:03):
him to go deep at all. He had the was
it a no hitter or a perfect game going in
his last time out, and they still pulled him at
less than eighty pitches, So this is a good spot
for Watson to get pulled with only maybe two or
three at bats. So under here for Watson, and then Chaparo,
another guy who has a high pinch hit risk. I
(32:25):
think he's like over seventy percent when I looked, Yeah,
seventy four percent chance of getting pinch hit four once
the bullpen comes in, facing a pitcher engaged jump who
has looked pretty good.
Speaker 4 (32:36):
So far in the majors.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
And oh and the the odds are under half a
hit plus one thirty seven at DraftKings good down to
plus one eighteen.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
If you thought we'd come tiptoeing in from the All
Star break, you thought wrong. That is twenty one bets.
I believe that we just gave out in about a
half hour. And I'll throw one more out there. Because
you guys are so heavy on twins. Cut us Sean,
tell me your thoughts on this, We go Cubs money line,
which you like, we go over ten and a half,
which you like. And then Derek's two sixty great home
(33:10):
run bets Michael Bush, Cody Clemmens about twenty eight to
one at fan.
Speaker 1 (33:14):
Duel bombs out.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Love it all right?
Speaker 2 (33:18):
I like that?
Speaker 3 (33:19):
All right. That's gonna do it. For today's episode of
Payoff Pitch, Thanks so much for tuning in. If you'd
like to tail some of the bets from today's episode,
look for the quick slip links in the episode description.
Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network app. Also,
please leave us a five star rating and review wherever
you listen to the podcast. We will be back on
Monday with more MLB best bets for Shanzaillo and Derek Cardi.
(33:41):
I'm Collen Richards. Thanks so much for listening to Payoff
Pitch Action Networks major League Baseball Betting podcast. Good luck
with all your bets, and have a great look at
his crowd on his free What Trigger No What Wants
(34:04):
to Leave h
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