July 31, 2026 • 43 mins
Payoff Pitch is back as Action Network betting experts Collin Whitchurch, Sean Zerillo, and Derek Carty break down the Friday MLB slate, diving into sides, totals and player props. Using the MLB 20–80 scouting scale, they grade their most confident plays and highlight where they’re finding the most value across the board. Tune in to hear their top picks, insights, and how they’re attacking today’s slate. Rate, review and subscribe to the show wherever you watch or listen so you don't miss us every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Fall, no crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Up.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
It is first offering Josh the bit out of sign.
Speaker 4 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos, who
will be a.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
Home run and he look good time. You're talking about
a roll of the dice.
Speaker 4 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 4 (00:34):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch. Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Friday, July thirty first. I'm Collin Whitchurch, joined
by Action Network senior MLB analyst Sean Zarrillo as well
as Derek Cardi, creator of the bat x projection system.
We're gonna break down this full and busy Friday MLB slate.
(00:56):
It's July thirty first. You'd think it's the trade deadline.
You think we'd have all kinds of wonkiness going on,
but no, they changed it. I guess every now and
then they it just has to be around July thirty first. Now,
so the trade deadline is not till Monday. It is
still a good reminder at this point to keep an
eye on. You know, if a starting pitcher is projected
(01:19):
to go but he's a trade candidate, it's a good
idea it's a good reminder that the listed pitcher strategy
for betting money lines might not be a bad idea
because you could have some late scratches. Monday is going
to be absolutely chaos with them having the deadline now
at I think six o'clock Eastern.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Trying to Sean.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
I know it's always a stressful time for you trying
to run your projections in the morning and knowing that
these lineups and these rosters might be totally different by
game time.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
But we'll see.
Speaker 4 (01:48):
Could be a crazy weekend in MLB, A lot up
in the air. But let's jump right into it. We've
got a full fifteen games, one afternoon game at Wrigley
Yankees Cubs getting started about two twenty Eastern. Derek has
his typical allotment of a whole bunch of props. Sean's
got a couple sides, couple totals. Let's jump into our
(02:09):
eighty grade bets. Derek, I'm gonna start with you first.
You've got, just as a little bit of a spoiler
for our listeners, five out recorded total numbers. In the
eighty grade section, We're gonna start with Man talk about
gross matchups this weekend Royal's Rockies and Coors, two of
(02:31):
the worst teams in baseball this year. The Royals finding
new ways to lose. Yesterday, one strike away from beating
the Twins three straight batters, reach walk off grand Slam
by Cody Clemens. Absolutely insane today. And now they go
to Coors where they said Michael Waka, They're all start
to the mound against Tomo Yuki Sagano and you are
(02:53):
targeting the Royals starting pitcher today, Derek.
Speaker 5 (02:57):
And Yeah, even though he's an All Star, I'm not
a big believer that Michael Waka is anything more than
like a league average pitcher. You look at his peripherals
and that's what they tell us, That's what his history
has kind of told us. Like he's fine, but he's
really nothing special. And he's going into course field today.
(03:17):
So I'm looking at Michael Waka under seventeen and a
half pitching outs plus one forty at bet three sixty
five is the best oudds on the board. There's also
one thirty four at Caesars, and I like it down
to minus one oh five.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
Michael Waka under seventeen and a half out. Yeah, I
think in terms of believing Michael Waka as an all
start might be him, might be his manager, maybe his parents.
I don't think anyone else really believes that Michael Waca
is an All Star caliber starting pitcher. But he's been
he's been decent for the Royals last couple of years,
a little late career rejuvenation, Sean, Let's go for your
(03:53):
first money line of the day and we'll go to
this afternoon's first matchup Yankees Cubs. Weather always a fat
and wriggly. Not sure if it is today, but we
got Will Warren against Shota Imanaga. Where you going with
this one?
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Yeah, the wind pattern is a little weird regularly here.
Today it's kind of blowing out towards the left field corner.
Depending on the forecast, you could say it is blowing
out towards the left field corner. You could say it's
blowing out to the foul area just left of that.
It is double digit wind speeds, and we do a
show to Minaga on the mountain, so worth monitoring to
see if that wind direction changes. Right now, it seems
(04:26):
like it's blowing towards foul territory. Could influence an impact
the total as much as it normally does it wriggly though,
depending on the direction because it is blowing hard.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
But I do like the Cubs and I like Shota
in this game. Shota's just been much.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
More efficient than Warren of late. Obviously, always take precautions
with the blend potentially blowing out against him, But past
five starts, Shota around a seventeen percent strikeout minus walk
Warren closer to seven percent. His ball rate has skyrocketed.
He's thrown more than forty percent balls in two of
his past three starts. So you're seeing the walks and
(04:59):
create you're seeing him get a little bit hard, hit
a little bit harder, and he's going against the Cub's
offense that is very patient, gonna take a lot of
pitches and get on base against him. But the Yankees
are also coming off of a series against your White
Sox Colin, where they had to throw a lot of relievers,
went to extra innings twice, left Fernando Cruz in for
his second inning in extras yesterday, and he was throwing
(05:21):
balls all over the zone. It looks like Brent Hedrick,
Angel Schavilli, and Fernando Cruz all probably down or out
today for the Yankees. Tim Hill's also thrown three times
in the past five days. Cavilla Doval has thrown three
times in the past five days. So this is a
pretty exhausted Yankees bullpen. It's not like the Cubs bullpen
isn't either. Just normally, I would rate the Yankees bullpen
(05:42):
much better than the Cubs bullpen. I put them more
on the level terms in terms of today's matchup, having
them both as below average pen, so slightly prefer the
Cubs bullpen. Prefer the Cubs starter Bullpen's about even here
for me. I make the Cubs around minus one seventy
in this game. I take them up to minus one sixty,
and of the three sides I played, that is the
one that has moved in concert with my projection so far,
(06:04):
it seems like it has gotten up closer to that
price target. So Cubs up to minus one sixtieth this afternoon,
and no concerns about guys getting traded away on either
side of this matchup shouldn't be.
Speaker 4 (06:14):
Yeah, it'd be pretty surprising. Yeah, those Yankees back to
back extra inning days and those were they couldn't use
Bednart in either of those games because going into those
back to back extrating days. He had thrown four out
of five days. So he's one of the few guys
who's finally rested because they gave him two straight days off.
I thought they'd use him yesterday after giving him Wednesday off,
but now they wanted to give him. I think he
(06:36):
had thrown six of eleven. He had thrown four or
five and then six of eleven days. So they've been
using the hell out of bed Inar.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Like I said, the other guys I have Mark is
like rested or you know guys who have thrown three
times in the last five days as well. So up
and now the Bowl line. It's pretty much a pitch
count disaster for that team.
Speaker 4 (06:52):
Yeah, interesting interesting travel spot here. They mentioned this on
the broadcast yesterday. An interesting instance that end of that
White Sox Yankee series where the series ended and the
visiting team stayed at home and the home team left
town the Yankee state in Chicago to play the Cubs,
and the White Socks headed out to Tampa. So Yankees
no travel going to going to Wrigley today. They had
(07:13):
to go about seven miles up north, probably.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
Staying the same with Tellergy move.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
You know, it depends on where they got it. I
would imagine they stayed downtown, in which case you know
you're you're the same distance north or south. But I
could be wrong. I'm not really sure how that works. Interesting,
Maybe something to ask the beat writers. All Right, cubs,
money line, Derek, let's get another out recorded. You're just
all about fading all stars, all stars who might be
(07:42):
questionable all stars. We're going to Nationals Braves for this one.
Foster Griffin and Bryce Elder. How you targeting Foster Griffin today?
Speaker 5 (07:52):
Looking at Foster Griffin's outs under under seventeen and a
half outs plus one thirty six at Polymarket is the
best uds on the board if you only traditional books.
There's a one thirty five at DraftKings, and I think
Caesar's two and I like it down to minus one
oh five. Foster Griffin another guy similar to Waka, where
I mean he has a two seven six era and
(08:15):
you look under the hood and he's not that good.
His SIERRA is three seven four. Pretty much every projection
system on Fangraphs has him with a projected era over
four going forward. Plus he's a trade candidate, so it
is possible that they don't push him as hard as
they might normally to make sure that he stays, you know,
(08:37):
healthy and good for the for the trade deadline coming up.
So under out's on Foster Griffin.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
We saw Dustin Mega pulled the other night relatively early,
kind of in the middle of an inning at like
seventy nine pitches. It seemed like he was maybe being
traded in that moment, as his teammates were giving him
hugs in.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
And the dugout.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
But yeah, I think the Cardinals were just like trying
to keep his pitch count low. So I love Derek
targeting these these under outs report props right before the
trade down line, especially in guys who may actually be
trade targets.
Speaker 4 (09:03):
Yeah, Foster Griffin's a big one. He's been a revelation
for the National. I think he's been better than almost
anyone expected for them. I was listening to a podcast
the other day and they were talking about if they
hang out to the National, should they q o him
in the offseason. That's a twenty million dollar commitment. But
maybe you know he's been that good. But I like Derek,
I don't know if he's as good as he's performed
(09:24):
of late, So targeting the outs there pairing Waco with Griffin. Sean,
I'm gonna go to you. This is probably the matchup,
the pitching matchup of the day, and Derek has a
prop in this game too, but I'll go to you first,
Sean reds Pirates Paul Skeins against Hunter Green. A lot
of fun here from both these guys. Curious where they
(09:47):
both fall in your starting pitcher rankings and then which
side you're targeting in this one.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Yeah, see where the rolling rankings have them. I think
thirteenth and forty three for this season. But in terms
of like the rolling thirty day rankings, and again there's
some believers that pull into this. Yeah, Green with some time,
so he fell down. So Green on the thirty day rankings,
I have him eighteenth. I have Skeens fifteenth. Numbers are
pretty comparable over their rolling samples. In fact, Green actually
(10:15):
has some of the better peripherals of late last five
starts three to one expected fifth three point three for Skeens.
Skeins is the slight edge in Sierra Green is the
slight edge and strike up minus walk. But it's all
to say their number is very comparable. Especially late Skeins
has lost two hundred points is spin off of his
fastball since the season started. It started to come back
(10:38):
up a little bit in his past two starts, but
still nowhere near where he was in April May where
he was last year. Just this significant decrease in fastball
spin rate. Could say the same for one Hunter green
Since his return from the IL, his also down about
eighty points, but nowhere near the dramatic long season d
decline that Skeins has had from start to start. Greene
(11:00):
is the few starts removed from the Ale stint. It's
not down nearly as significantly, so I'm not as concerned. Again,
I already quoted to you these stats that he's performed
over the sample where he's had reduced spin. So the
trend line of both pitchers, I think, is going to
just push them on the same level as one another. Again,
that ranking that I decided, the rolling ranking, has them
within two spots of one another. But overall, this reds
(11:23):
offense actually projects the better power and patient lineup for
me and giving them the power upside.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
In a low scoring, low.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Event pitchers dual game where we don't expect a lot
of runs certainly have to favor the team who is
likelier to hit the home run. So I make the
Reds about minus one ten here minus one oh eight.
I would bet them at even money or better. Took
them at plus one ten last night, and I'm happy
again with that down to even money for today's matchup.
(11:51):
I guess of the two, the Reds are the team
you're more concerned about potentially trading pieces away. I've looked
at the list of trade candidates, you know, round baseball,
it's largely starting pitchers, Louis Rise, Dalton var Show, It's
like one other hitter name that pops up. Matt's probably
gonna trade Luis Robert. So there's like nobody in this
game in these lineups that I'm particularly worried about being traded.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
Maybe JJ Blade, well Hunter Green.
Speaker 4 (12:16):
Hunter Green would be the scratch candidate that would be
a trade.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
Is he a potential trade consideration.
Speaker 4 (12:23):
There were some reports yesterday about there's some big buzz
going on around Hunter Green, So I would that's a
good that's a good shout that if you're betting Red's
money line, you know, go the listed picture.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
Out there picture absolutely, yep, yeah, thank you for that. Yeah,
I didn't realize that Green was a potential trade candidate.
I know they locked up Chase Burns. I didn't realize
they were trying to get what they could for Hunter
Green right now. Probably smart considering his injury history. But yeah,
reds to even money. Just make sure you bet listed picture.
Considering Green's potential to get traded, I'd imagine they'll probably
wait till after today.
Speaker 4 (12:53):
Yeah, they do have Green locked. I mean he's makes
fifteen mil next year, sixteen MILLI twenty twenty eight, and
then a team option for twenty one mil in twenty
twenty nine. Not really sure what the mindset is between
of It could just be noise. Maybe they don't trade him,
but I think they're at least listening, and if he
is available, he's right behind. He's the number two behind
(13:14):
Schooble in terms of most sought after starting pictures on
the market. So Red's money line if Hunter Green remains
the starting pitcher tonight from Sean Zarrillo and Derek your
your fade here is in lockstep. We faded Michael Waka,
who's an All star. We faded Force Griffin, Foster Griffin,
(13:34):
who's an All star Forest Griffin. Sean, there's a UFC
pull for you and Derek, You're you're fading Skins here tonight.
Speaker 5 (13:42):
Yes, I am not because I think Skeens is anything
near the talent level of Michael Walker. Obviously, Paul skeins
Is is a great picture. I'm not going to deny that.
But I'm looking at his under seventeen and a half
outs plus one fifty five at bed three six five's
the best odds on the There's also one thirty three
at Caesars that looks good, and I like it down
(14:04):
to plus one ten or so. Like like Sean said,
his stuff has kind of gotten a little bit worse
as the season has gone on. The spin rate has
gone down. He's going into Great American Ballpark today, which
is the toughest park in baseball for home runs, and
it's almost ninety degrees there, so it's even though he's
facing the Reds, it's a tougher matchup all things considered
(14:26):
than you might otherwise think. And yeah, this one he
projects to go under about fifty percent of the time.
So if you're gonna give us big plus money on
what's essentially a coin flip, I will flip that coin
as many times as you'll let me do.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
It Skian's under seventeen and a half outs and sean
to wrap up your final money line of this eighty
grade section. You know, I said, Skeen's and Green is
the best pitching match of the day. It probably is.
This one's probably number two Rangers astros Yvaldi against Brown.
(15:02):
Where are you going with this one?
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Yeah, I'm hoping it isn't because that would mean that
Hudder Brown reverted back to what he was before his
last start. Shut down your White Sox in his last start,
But that was by far the most efficient he'd been
all year, and especially since he came back from his
eye Elston major league average ball rate is around thirty
seven percent. Brown was at fifty one percent to start
before that against the Orioles, forty four, forty five, forty
(15:26):
two percent. The three starts before that, he'd just been sloppy,
couldn't throw strikes. Last start against the White Sox got
it down to thirty three percent, and the called strike
plus whiff rate also went up along with it. So
either Hunter Brown immediately found something or he just had
a really good day. But as I said, and as
I tried to bet Shane Bieber off of consecutive improved
(15:46):
starts in the inning that he couldn't get.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
Out of the first inning or the names.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
One of the worst things I've ever seen, and especially
having the under on that game. Oh god, But you
know that's the thing. Like that is why in terms
of a weighted projection, I've tried to back test and
figure out, you know, how much recency bias to bake
in for these starting pitchers, how much of the season
long metrics to bake into these starting pictures. Yes, Hunter
(16:16):
Brown came off of a phenomenal start in his last outing,
but I still have to bake in everything he did
before that a little bit.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
So I don't have.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Him at his four point nine expected fit or wherever
that currently is. Over the recent sample he's at four
to three on the year. I have him closer to
that four to three number for the year, but I
also can't really upgrade him much beyond that. So all
that to say, nathanyav Aldi has been the much more
consistent starting pitcher. I still rank him as the better
starting pitcher. Beyond that, everything kind of comparable here. Lineups
(16:48):
within a couple of points of each other in terms
of WRC plus Bullpens probably slightly prefer the Astros, but
there's a recipiece that gets them a little bit closer.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
Today.
Speaker 3 (16:57):
I make the Rangers a slight favorite.
Speaker 2 (16:59):
I have them are minus want to wait, I would
take them at even money or better. I think they
actually went out from plus one ten to plus one
fifteen last night. So somebody likes the form that Brown
was in in his last start. But as I said,
I do have to bake in the things he did
before that. I mean, you have all the strikeout minus
walk is. I think quadruple Brown's over the recent sample
(17:20):
five times Browns twenty six percent versus five percent again
over the rolling samples. So baked in some of the improvement,
but cannot bake in all of it. Take the reindeer,
Stephen Money.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
Derek wrap up our eighty grade section here with a
couple more outs props. These are not all stars, These
are young potential future all stars. Haven't really shown a
ton of it yet this year. You've got one of
the pictures you're targeting in Twins Mariners tonight, and then
the other one is over in where Brewers Angels throw
(17:56):
us those final two out recorded props.
Speaker 5 (17:58):
Yeah, look at it Shane Drohan under seventeen and a
half half outs plus one oh five at bet MGM
best odds on the board. There's also a minus one
oh nine at DraftKings, and I like it down to uh.
I mean theoretically minus two hundred or so. The BA
the bad X is only projecting about fourteen and a
half outs here for Drohan, so we're getting some some
(18:21):
really significant edge on this one. I think part of
it is because the Angels offense is maybe a little underrated.
Can can take pitches, can draw walks. Drohan in quite
a few of his starts hasn't been allowed to go
especially deep, only like eighty eighty five pitches, and in general,
the bad X is not really a big fan of Drohan.
(18:42):
He's he has a three five to one e R
this year, but the projected DRA going forward is four
to seven seven.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
Uh.
Speaker 5 (18:48):
He's striking out a batter per a batter per nine
or a batter per inning, you know, not a nine
strikeout per nine whatever I'm trying to say. But his
stuff only profiles is about average. His stuff plus is average.
His the backcast stuff profile is right around average, so
definitely expecting some regression for Drohan and looking at his
(19:11):
outs prop here under and then next one we have
Zebbie Matthews under seventeen and a half outs plus one
ten at hard Rock. There's also one of seven at
DraftKings and Caesars, and I like this one down to
minus one fifty minus one sixty or so. Another one
where the BADX is only projecting about fifteen outs here
for ZEBI about a sixty percent chance that he's going under,
(19:32):
so we'll take the under on him too.
Speaker 4 (19:36):
All right, that's five out recorded props, three money lines.
By the way, uh Red's money line schemes under seventeen
and a half outs. You can't find a lot of
books that'll let your part SGP out recorded props. Hard
Rock lets you do it. Red's money line Paul Skins
under seventeen and a half outs round plus two to fifty.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
If you're the sgping sort and.
Speaker 4 (19:56):
Want to throw one of Sean's favorite bets with one
of Derek's favorite tonight before we move on, don't forget
to send it for Action Pro for real time pick alerts
from experts like Shan Zarillo. Grant me for Derek Cardi
and our entire Action Network team plus he can access
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(20:18):
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dollars off a year of Action Pro all right, sixty
grade section taking it down a notch a little bit,
(20:38):
but four more props from Derek. Three totals here from
Sean Derek, I'll start with you first. You guys both
have picks in this game. I'll Derek go first with
his prop here in Red Sox Dodgers, and then Sean
has a play on the total. We've got Ranger Suarez
going for the Red Sox Dodgers going with a bullpen game.
I think Edgardo Henriquez is opening for them. But Derek,
(21:01):
you're targeting Suarez here.
Speaker 5 (21:04):
Yeah, I'm looking at Suarez under four, under four and
a half strikeouts plus one twenty five. The polymarket is
the best odds on the board, and I like it
down to minus minus one hundred minus one oh five
or so. This is split. A lot of books have
it at five and a half, so I'm fine taking
the five and a half. Also, it's out there right
(21:26):
now like minus one fifty minus one sixty, I'm fine
taking it there. I do think the books will start
to flip to four and a half, says the day
goes on. So I like the four and a half
more than the five and a half if you can
get it at like plus one twenty five or plus
one twenty. The bad ax is projecting about four point
three strikeouts fo Suarez here today, so it's gonna be
(21:48):
good value on either one. But when you run the
math on it, the under four and a half at
plus money shows better value than the five and a
half that's superjuiced. So I'll take the under four and
a half here For suarez second start, coming off the
IL probably will be limited to around eighty pitches or so,
based on what he did in his first start facing
what is a really good team in the Dodgers, not
(22:10):
an especially strikeout heavy team in the Dodgers, and so yeah,
I'm taking the under on Suarez.
Speaker 4 (22:18):
Ranger Suarez under four and a half strikeouts. You compair that,
I mean fading a starting pitcher, and the strikeout department
doesn't necessarily not correlate with an under Sean will go
to you for this bet and where you're looking at
And we talked right before we started recording here. One
of the first things I do when I log in
(22:38):
every morning is look at Sean's Bartolo tool, which is
available again with an Action Pro sub. Go in the
Action app, go to actionetwork dot com. You can look
at a breakdown of Sean's game to game projections.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Every day.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
You look at his percentage edges for every game, and
I like to look and see what is his highest
projected edge.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
And we started.
Speaker 4 (22:57):
Recording and I said, is this number right in Dodgers
Red Sox because I'm surprised to see an edge this high.
You said, it's right, So tell us, Uh, you know
why you like this total so much? Because uh, I
love it myself.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Yeah, So there's you know, the main concern is the
fact that the top two relievers on both teams are
probably down today. Edwin as Tanner Scott threw back to
back days for the Dodgers and the Red Sox have
used Weisert and Chatman three out of the past five days,
three out of the past four days each. So don't
anticipate the highest leverage relievers for either team getting involved
in this game. But anytime there's a Bolton game, you
(23:37):
are going to see the times through the order split avoided,
certainly by the Red Sox or certainly by the Dodgers.
In this game, they're not going to expose any of
their pitchers more than one or two more than one
time through the order. We'll climb Jack Dryer probably your
likeliest candidates to go multiple innings. Jack Driver's been phenomenal,
twenty two percent strike up on his walk, three point
(23:57):
one expected fifth, three five expected the ra So there's
plenty of good arms in this Dodgers' bullpen, even beyond
their highest leverage arms. There's plenty of good arms on
this Dodgers' staff, even beyond the name brands starting pitchers.
I think this was initially supposed to be a Yamamoto
bump day today. But also the Dodgers' offense against lefties
as opposed to righty's about sixteen points worse. They're the
(24:18):
best offensive baseball against right ahead and pitching about a
one to twenty WRC plus, but against lefties they fall
to a one oh four they rank closer to eighth.
You can see it pretty consistently. Anytime you put a
leftie against this offense, they have a much better chance
of shutting them down. Unfortunately, as Derek alluded to, Suarez
probably not going to go pass five or so innings
(24:39):
in the start up, pulled prematurely in his last start
after coming off of the IL, so you can't bake
in too much of him. You may get Bryan Watson
trying to build a bridge to the layer dinner innings here.
But all that said, I still make this total around
seven and a half. Expect heavy bullpen involvement potentially on
both sides tonight, no relievers getting exposed, and the Dodgers
in their lesser split for at least the first five.
(25:01):
Haven't quantified that quote unquote course field effect. You know,
I would have investigated further whether there is a effect
for teams coming off of Sacramento going to different parks
like there is for teams coming off.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
Of Course going to different parks.
Speaker 2 (25:16):
Not something really have sufficient data on yet, but maybe
worth looking into at some point to see whether there
may be a thing, some offensive inflation for teams after
coming from not altitude in Sacramento, but from this offensive
haven in Sacramento, where they're like, if I lift the ball,
it has a good chance of going out to a
normal park like Dodger Stadium, where the balls may not
(25:37):
carry as far. But all that's to say, under eight
and a half down to eight at minus one ten
between the Dodgers and the Red Sox, one of the
bigger projected edges I've had this year in terms of
a pregame total. Unfortunately, the totals though, of just not
performed in concert with the movement. We are getting good
movement on our totals run full run moves, half run moves.
Historical data says these should be performing much better. Just
(26:00):
the baseball has been chaotic this year. Ballpark Palle had
a post yesterday discussing the recent ballflight the flat that
hummers per game have re crashed in July compared to
were in June and May. So I don't know if
we're seeing any third new ball this season, just getting
some random results that the balls aren't carrying out. But
I want to go back into investigating barrel distance and whatnot,
(26:23):
because the expected home run rate based upon the way
balls are being hit has cratered once again, and it
is essentially the inverse of the change that we saw
in late May into early June.
Speaker 4 (26:37):
Good stuff there, Dodgers, Red Sox. Yeah, I'm I've been
that one for sure. I generally go in and look
at your highest projected edges, whether you have a good
day or a bad day, your top edges. I'm mushing
the hell out of you right now. I'm sorry, but
your top edges have done quite well of late. So
when I saw the ten point something percent edge, my
eyes lit up a little bit. So hopefully that can
(26:59):
come through for us tonight. Derek love this one big
plus money prop here. You talked about why you're not
a big fan of Drohan today, So why not look
at a nice big plus three seventy five prop on
the opposing picture in that game again? Brewers Angels, Shane
(27:20):
Drohan and Ryan Johnson for the Angels.
Speaker 5 (27:23):
YEP, looking at Ryan Johnson to record the win at
plus three seventy five at DraftKings, and I like it
down to plus three h five for a lot of
the reasons I mentioned earlier about Drohan. I'm not really
buying into him. I think the Angels offense is a
little underrated. Ryan Johnson solid enough young pitcher, so I
like him at the odds are being given.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
And then where are we at here?
Speaker 4 (27:50):
Sean another total here in Cardinals Blue Jays. Was wondering
if we were going to get a chance to talk
about our old friend Dylan Ceaes today. He's on the
mound Cam Schlitler was great the other day. They're going
to go back and forth, head to head. It's to
the one really nice awards race going on right now.
Speaking of if you want to also go into a
(28:13):
little bit, you had a new piece go up on
Actionnetwork dot Com Action app this morning. We've talked a
lot about your Bartolo tool for your daily projections, and
we've talked from time to time about award race is
on the show, and now you've got a new tool
available to Action Pro users to help break down awards.
So talk a little bit about that and then the
(28:34):
total you like here in Cardinals Blue Jays.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Yeah, I got tired of rerunning my awards projection, so
I ended up automating the thing. This is a blended
end of season projection that is weighed against voter behavior
or data points that I've discovered are most important to
accumulating vote share in each of these categories, were the
biggest driver among them, but for each category there are
(28:57):
different data points that lead to expected voter behavior based
upon pass voting. Difficult to quantify voter love or fatigue
for a guy like show Hey Otani, But do currently
project an edge on Otani? I know I discussed betting PCA.
I bet PC eight about plus two thirty last week.
I still make Otani about minus one sixty. He's currently
around minus one thirty. So this projection, these projections for
(29:20):
all six main award markets, AL and nl mbp c
I on Rookie of the Year, They will update daily
based upon updated end.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
Of season projections.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
Performance guys had last night will fold in to those
projections and those stats, and these will recalculate automatically. Yesterday
I made PCA I think around plus one fifty. Today
the model hasn't closer to plus two hundred, so it's
going to change on a day to day basis based
on how those end of season projections update. Injuries, et
cetera will kneecap guys Otani's pitching projections as they adjust,
(29:52):
his MVP rankings will adjust too. So if you're looking
for potential futures bets down the stretch, check that out
and I'll have one coming out for two futures next week.
Have held it back until after the trade deadline just
because all the teams who kind of show up on
their as value quote unquote are betting essentially against the
opposite of buyers or sellers, because it doesn't factor in
these moves that these teams are about to make. So
(30:13):
I've held back the team futures until the trade deadline passes.
But right now you can check out the player awards
with team futures coming soon and gonna have some also
some other tools rolling leader boards, you know, trend lines
for guys who've added velocity, et cetera. Things like that
that you can use not only for betting purposes but
also for fantasy DFS purposes.
Speaker 3 (30:33):
So keep an eye out for all that.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
And then your Cardinals Blue Jays total.
Speaker 2 (30:40):
Yeah, I bet the under eight here eight minus one fifteen.
It has moved down to seven and a half. I
don't really like it. Past minus one oh five I
projected around seven point two. We also may get the
roof open here in Toronto tonight, which would boost the
run scoring environment, kind of anticipating it'll be open. Temperature
should beautiful tonight. Kyle, he is a very interesting pitcher
(31:01):
because I don't think he's particularly good, but the separation
of like predictive metrics and also hard hit stuff is
all over the place. He has a five point two
expected array a fifty percent hard hit rate, but yet
he has a three ninety nine expected fit a four
to twenty three sierra. He has very good command, he
(31:23):
doesn't really allow many walks. The ball rate, you know,
as I discussed with other pitchers being a erratic, very
consistently low for him, you know, one of the better
ball rates, one of the more efficient guys on this slate,
one of six location plus ratings. So he has good command,
but in ninety one plus stuff plus figure all the
hard hit stuff like very disparate in terms of the
(31:45):
UH the results that he gets, you know, and a
big gap in terms of the expected indicators. Essentially, But
this Jay's offense in terms of power not one of
the bigger threats for him in my opinion. This is
a team who fouls pitches off, who may brumble against
the guy who's essentially pitching contact because the Jays are
hitting for contact, they're not hitting for power. Vlaggero Junior
(32:06):
somehow does not have a home run at home this year.
That is one of the more mysterious stats in all
of baseball. But Dylan Sez has been a bona fide
AlSi young candidate. We have a ticket on him. As
I said, at around thirty five to one or forty
to one, probably needs Splitler to get hit somewhere down
the stretch in order to end up overtaking. They do
project though Neck and Neck literally tied for war at
(32:28):
the end of the season. Splitler just may have the
better counting stats, the lower ERA and whip.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
But all of that.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
Is to say I think Dylan Cees is phenomenal like
him to potentially keep this total under tonight, and he
is not a trade candidate. Kevin Gausman likely to be traded.
Dylan Seeese off of a fresh contract will not be.
But do not bet the under seven and a half
pass minus one ten here that would be my firm cutoff.
Really prefer minus one oh five between the Jas and
the Cards. And hopefully this movement towards the under ends
(32:57):
up cashing for us. We want two to zero bets.
That moved our direction yesterday, so hopefully we can keep
it going.
Speaker 4 (33:01):
Today, staying right here in Cardinals Blue Jays, Derek has
a prop in this one talking about trade candidates in
this game. This is certainly one of them. There was
reports yesterday that Dalton Varshow might be of interest to
the Phillies, which is notable because his father, Gary Varshow
(33:22):
was a Philly player and coach, I believe, And Dalton
var Show is named after Darren Dalton because he was
Gary's best friend when they were on the Phillies, so
he could go to his dad slash. I know his
dad only spent a year there, but he coached there.
And Darren Dalton obviously very well known for the Phillies.
(33:44):
So tell us about your your Dalton. I almost called
him Darren Dalton, your Dalton var Show prop today, Derek.
Speaker 5 (33:53):
Yeah, I'm betting on Varshow to draw a walk at
plus three hundred at bet three six y five. There's
also a two fifty at seas and I like it
down to plus two thirty five. This is one that's
more of just a math play than anything else. Like obviously,
Lay he has pretty good control of our show has
been struggling this year, although his walk grate has been
more or less in line with what he normally does.
But really this one just comes down to, uh, comes
(34:16):
down to the math. He projects a draw a walk
about thirty three percent of the time. So if you're
gonna give us plus three hundred on that, you're giving
us really good value. That's uh, that's really all comes
down to.
Speaker 4 (34:27):
The power hasn't quite been there for Varshow this year,
but he still gets on base at a decent clip. Sean,
your final bet on today's card one more total. Not
a game we've talked about yet. We talked about We
have talked about this game. Actually, Derek had a prop
on it earlier. We talked about the Twins with their
miraculous win against the Royals yesterday. Now they go to
(34:50):
Seattle Zebbie Matthews as we mentioned, and then Bryce Miller
on the other side, And you like the total here.
Speaker 2 (34:56):
Yeah, it's like eight minus one of five, under eight
minus one of five last night, I like it to
seven and a half at even money. It's roughly where
it's gotten to eight minus one twenty seven and a
half even money, so would not bet it much pass
where it is currently. But Bryce Miller, Brian Wu, these
Mariners pitchers have never shown more drastic home road splits.
They've always shown home road splits, but it's usually closer
(35:17):
to like a run. This year, both of them pushing
closer to run and a half two runs two seventy
four at home for Bryce Miller, three to ninety eight
on the road. Strike at minus Waco's from thirty one
percent at home to seventeen percent on the road. For
whatever is, these guys are just much harder to hit
in their home park. The visibility off of the batter's eye,
(35:37):
you know, the way they throw their arm, angles the fastballs.
I think all of that plays into it. I don't
think it's as simple as just like being at home
in a park where more strikeouts occur. I think they
specifically do have characteristics about them that have caused these
drastic home road splits. And the Mariners bill bend after
losing back to back days against the Dodgers, should have
(35:58):
all their high leverage for leavers available tonight. Alex Hoppy
Cole Wilcox, the two I would mark down is unavailable
both pitch Wednesday and Monday. Wednesday and Thursday, but spire
for aer Bizarto unders Munio's all should be good to
go for tonight. Their highest lever arms behind Miller, so
hopefully that should be enough to limit the Twins to
(36:18):
two runs are fewer, and then hopefully the Twins staff
can limit the Mariners to five runs or fewer and
we can keep this game at seven or below. So
the under seven and a half to even money under
eight to minus one twenty between the Twins.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
And the Mariners.
Speaker 2 (36:33):
My final total bet for today's like couple, I'm gonna
keep an eye on the Philly is over. I want
to see an umpire before I consider firing on the over.
Nine There the Cubs under, As I mentioned the weathers,
the wind is a little bit like goofy there.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Keep an eye on that this afternoon.
Speaker 2 (36:47):
The Braves under seems a little bit high at nine,
even though Bryce Elder is involved three other totals. I'm
keeping an eye on the A's money line seems a
little bit wide considering Nick Kurtz with the most bizarre
as an aside, Nick Kurtz with the most bizarre activation
last night. He was scheduled for an MRI. I've never
seen a guy scheduled for an MRI and then play
the same day. I don't think you can get MRI
(37:09):
results back that quickly. He got hit on the arm
on Thursday, they said he was going to have an
m On Wednesday, they said he was going to have
an MRI, and then he was in the lineup last night.
Now the whole market moved assuming he would be out.
The Red Sox went from like minus one thirty five
to minus one seventy. They ended up getting a comeback win.
But yeah, if you laid the juice early on the
Red Sox yesterday, I got that market.
Speaker 3 (37:30):
Movement didn't buy off of it.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
Kind of an undeserved win because Kurtz was not supposed
to be in that lineup and it ended up influencing
the game. Ironically enough, he was the last mine up
in the ninth ending with the tying run on second base.
So maybe it was deserved. Maybe Nick Kurtz was, you know,
significantly less than what you would normally handicap him at.
But just had to shout that out. That was a
bizarre a very very bizarre lineup announcement that he would
be in last night.
Speaker 3 (37:52):
That is nothing to play for.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
He was scheduled for an MRI, and I've never ever
seen a guy scheduled for testing end up playing the
same day.
Speaker 4 (38:00):
Talked about potential trade risks this weekend, that Tiger's as
game definitely one to watch with Casey Mize and Jeffrey
Springs both potential trade candidates. Other ones just quickly that
we haven't mentioned yet, obviously Marlins and your Mets Sean
Freddy Perrault to starting tonight. That could that's one to
definitely keep an eye on.
Speaker 1 (38:20):
Well, what's that.
Speaker 3 (38:21):
Sale a vita, Freddy Parota?
Speaker 4 (38:23):
Yes, all right, Derek has one more prop. And you know,
we talk a lot about Derek liking to fade, fade, aces, fade,
top name starting pitchers, all stars, et cetera. I actually
like when you make bets like this a little bit more.
Mitch Bratt of the Diamondbacks against the Guardians. Mitch Bratt,
for the record, He's made four starts since getting called up.
(38:45):
He's throwing fifteen to two thirds innings. He's walked eleven
batters and allowed eleven runs. Walk totals in those four
games two, three, one, and five last time out, and
I'm guessing that five is why this number has gotten
to the point where you now see you in it, Derek.
Speaker 5 (39:01):
Yeah, Mitch Brad has been walking a ton of guys
in his four major league starts. But it's only four
major league starts. So I'm looking at Brat under one
and a half walks loud plus one thirteen at DraftKings,
and I like it down to minus one forty five
or so. Brad, if you look at his numbers in
the minors, he was actually like really good with his control,
(39:25):
so going forward he projects to get a lot better
only four starts, so we don't want to put a
lot of, you know, too much weight on only four
starts because anything can happen. And he's also a guy
who in two of his four starts only through I
(39:45):
think fifty four and fifty eight pitches or something like that,
and the other ones he's thrown eighty four and ninety two.
So really kind of a wide range of outcomes on
how deep he's going to go into this game. I'm
projecting him around eighty one pitches, but really definitely expecting
some regression in that walk rate, and so I like
the under here on his walks.
Speaker 4 (40:05):
Get Mitch Bratt under one and a half walks and
we can have a what's the I'm not gen z
enough if we have a Brat Summer that the Charlie
XCX reference or Eddie our producer, can turn that into an.
Speaker 1 (40:18):
Episode title of some sort.
Speaker 4 (40:19):
I'm sure Bras Summer, that's that's that's that Charlie XCX,
right am.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
I I'm way too got it. Yeah, yeah, I'm way
too old.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
For this show.
Speaker 1 (40:29):
We're very hip and cool. All right.
Speaker 4 (40:31):
That's our sixty grade section. We just have one forty
grade bet today from Derek. So let's rip through that
real quick before we get out of here, because we
are running long. This game is I didn't even see.
We're going back to Rangers astros here Ivaldi against Brown
and you have a hit or prop here, Derek.
Speaker 5 (40:50):
Yeah, Nicky Lopez under half of a hit plus run
plus RBI at plus one thirty nine at DraftKings, and
I like it down to plus one seventeen. Nicky Lopez
is obviously a weak hitter. He's going to hit near
the bottom of the lineup facing what is theoretically a
pretty good pitcher in Hunter Brown and a good amount
of pinch hit risk, which is what I like the
(41:10):
most projects for about twenty five percent chance of getting
pinch hit. Four might be a little bit higher when
you consider the amount of lefties that are actually in
this Royals bullpen. I think they have four or five
wrested lefties. Four four rested lefties, including the closer and
the setup man. So definitely a chance that we see
(41:31):
a lefty come in after Brown and that Lopez gets lifted.
Speaker 4 (41:36):
When that happens, Nicky Lopez has babbitped his way to
a three hundred average for the Rangers thus far, about
as slapstick of a hitter as you can get. So
love that Chicago boy, Nicky Lopez. For the record, before
we get out of here, I do just want to
say I'm disappointed in both of you guys that neither
of you had a bet in Giants Padres, just because
(41:57):
I really wanted to say the name brad Lee Rodrie,
so I'm saying it right now before we get out
of here. Carson wizen Hunt and brad Lee Rodriguez is
the matchup of the day from a name perspective. That's
gonna do it. For today's episode of Payoff Pitch. Thanks
so much for tuning in. If you'd like to tail
some of the bets on today's episode, look for the
quick slip links in the episode description. Also, don't forget
(42:18):
to download the free, award winning Action Network app. You
can follow shan Zaillo and Derek Carty in there as
they log picks each and every day. Also, please leave
us a five star rating and review wherever you listen
to the podcast. We will be back next week. We'll
be back on Monday with an episode of Payoff Pitch.
It might be a weird episode as we get ready
for the trade deadline that day, but we'll do our
(42:39):
best to come up with something for you there. For
Shonzarello and Derek Carty, I'm Colin Richard. Thanks again for
listening to Payoff Pitch. Action Network's a major league Baseball
betting podcast. Good luck with all your bettors. Poking his
(43:03):
crown on his free what a trigger?
Speaker 3 (43:06):
No, What wants to Leave
Fall, no crying, and this game is underway.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Up.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
It is first offering Josh the bit out of sign.
Speaker 4 (00:14):
Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos, who
will be a.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
Home run and he look good time. You're talking about
a roll of the dice.
Speaker 4 (00:29):
This is it.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Here's the Payoff Pitch.
Speaker 4 (00:34):
Welcome to Payoff Pitch. Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast.
It is Friday, July thirty first. I'm Collin Whitchurch, joined
by Action Network senior MLB analyst Sean Zarrillo as well
as Derek Cardi, creator of the bat x projection system.
We're gonna break down this full and busy Friday MLB slate.
(00:56):
It's July thirty first. You'd think it's the trade deadline.
You think we'd have all kinds of wonkiness going on,
but no, they changed it. I guess every now and
then they it just has to be around July thirty first. Now,
so the trade deadline is not till Monday. It is
still a good reminder at this point to keep an
eye on. You know, if a starting pitcher is projected
(01:19):
to go but he's a trade candidate, it's a good
idea it's a good reminder that the listed pitcher strategy
for betting money lines might not be a bad idea
because you could have some late scratches. Monday is going
to be absolutely chaos with them having the deadline now
at I think six o'clock Eastern.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Trying to Sean.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
I know it's always a stressful time for you trying
to run your projections in the morning and knowing that
these lineups and these rosters might be totally different by
game time.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
But we'll see.
Speaker 4 (01:48):
Could be a crazy weekend in MLB, A lot up
in the air. But let's jump right into it. We've
got a full fifteen games, one afternoon game at Wrigley
Yankees Cubs getting started about two twenty Eastern. Derek has
his typical allotment of a whole bunch of props. Sean's
got a couple sides, couple totals. Let's jump into our
(02:09):
eighty grade bets. Derek, I'm gonna start with you first.
You've got, just as a little bit of a spoiler
for our listeners, five out recorded total numbers. In the
eighty grade section, We're gonna start with Man talk about
gross matchups this weekend Royal's Rockies and Coors, two of
(02:31):
the worst teams in baseball this year. The Royals finding
new ways to lose. Yesterday, one strike away from beating
the Twins three straight batters, reach walk off grand Slam
by Cody Clemens. Absolutely insane today. And now they go
to Coors where they said Michael Waka, They're all start
to the mound against Tomo Yuki Sagano and you are
(02:53):
targeting the Royals starting pitcher today, Derek.
Speaker 5 (02:57):
And Yeah, even though he's an All Star, I'm not
a big believer that Michael Waka is anything more than
like a league average pitcher. You look at his peripherals
and that's what they tell us, That's what his history
has kind of told us. Like he's fine, but he's
really nothing special. And he's going into course field today.
(03:17):
So I'm looking at Michael Waka under seventeen and a
half pitching outs plus one forty at bet three sixty
five is the best oudds on the board. There's also
one thirty four at Caesars, and I like it down
to minus one oh five.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
Michael Waka under seventeen and a half out. Yeah, I
think in terms of believing Michael Waka as an all
start might be him, might be his manager, maybe his parents.
I don't think anyone else really believes that Michael Waca
is an All Star caliber starting pitcher. But he's been
he's been decent for the Royals last couple of years,
a little late career rejuvenation, Sean, Let's go for your
(03:53):
first money line of the day and we'll go to
this afternoon's first matchup Yankees Cubs. Weather always a fat
and wriggly. Not sure if it is today, but we
got Will Warren against Shota Imanaga. Where you going with
this one?
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Yeah, the wind pattern is a little weird regularly here.
Today it's kind of blowing out towards the left field corner.
Depending on the forecast, you could say it is blowing
out towards the left field corner. You could say it's
blowing out to the foul area just left of that.
It is double digit wind speeds, and we do a
show to Minaga on the mountain, so worth monitoring to
see if that wind direction changes. Right now, it seems
(04:26):
like it's blowing towards foul territory. Could influence an impact
the total as much as it normally does it wriggly though,
depending on the direction because it is blowing hard.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
But I do like the Cubs and I like Shota
in this game. Shota's just been much.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
More efficient than Warren of late. Obviously, always take precautions
with the blend potentially blowing out against him, But past
five starts, Shota around a seventeen percent strikeout minus walk
Warren closer to seven percent. His ball rate has skyrocketed.
He's thrown more than forty percent balls in two of
his past three starts. So you're seeing the walks and
(04:59):
create you're seeing him get a little bit hard, hit
a little bit harder, and he's going against the Cub's
offense that is very patient, gonna take a lot of
pitches and get on base against him. But the Yankees
are also coming off of a series against your White
Sox Colin, where they had to throw a lot of relievers,
went to extra innings twice, left Fernando Cruz in for
his second inning in extras yesterday, and he was throwing
(05:21):
balls all over the zone. It looks like Brent Hedrick,
Angel Schavilli, and Fernando Cruz all probably down or out
today for the Yankees. Tim Hill's also thrown three times
in the past five days. Cavilla Doval has thrown three
times in the past five days. So this is a
pretty exhausted Yankees bullpen. It's not like the Cubs bullpen
isn't either. Just normally, I would rate the Yankees bullpen
(05:42):
much better than the Cubs bullpen. I put them more
on the level terms in terms of today's matchup, having
them both as below average pen, so slightly prefer the
Cubs bullpen. Prefer the Cubs starter Bullpen's about even here
for me. I make the Cubs around minus one seventy
in this game. I take them up to minus one sixty,
and of the three sides I played, that is the
one that has moved in concert with my projection so far,
(06:04):
it seems like it has gotten up closer to that
price target. So Cubs up to minus one sixtieth this afternoon,
and no concerns about guys getting traded away on either
side of this matchup shouldn't be.
Speaker 4 (06:14):
Yeah, it'd be pretty surprising. Yeah, those Yankees back to
back extra inning days and those were they couldn't use
Bednart in either of those games because going into those
back to back extrating days. He had thrown four out
of five days. So he's one of the few guys
who's finally rested because they gave him two straight days off.
I thought they'd use him yesterday after giving him Wednesday off,
but now they wanted to give him. I think he
(06:36):
had thrown six of eleven. He had thrown four or
five and then six of eleven days. So they've been
using the hell out of bed Inar.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Like I said, the other guys I have Mark is
like rested or you know guys who have thrown three
times in the last five days as well. So up
and now the Bowl line. It's pretty much a pitch
count disaster for that team.
Speaker 4 (06:52):
Yeah, interesting interesting travel spot here. They mentioned this on
the broadcast yesterday. An interesting instance that end of that
White Sox Yankee series where the series ended and the
visiting team stayed at home and the home team left
town the Yankee state in Chicago to play the Cubs,
and the White Socks headed out to Tampa. So Yankees
no travel going to going to Wrigley today. They had
(07:13):
to go about seven miles up north, probably.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
Staying the same with Tellergy move.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
You know, it depends on where they got it. I
would imagine they stayed downtown, in which case you know
you're you're the same distance north or south. But I
could be wrong. I'm not really sure how that works. Interesting,
Maybe something to ask the beat writers. All Right, cubs,
money line, Derek, let's get another out recorded. You're just
all about fading all stars, all stars who might be
(07:42):
questionable all stars. We're going to Nationals Braves for this one.
Foster Griffin and Bryce Elder. How you targeting Foster Griffin today?
Speaker 5 (07:52):
Looking at Foster Griffin's outs under under seventeen and a
half outs plus one thirty six at Polymarket is the
best uds on the board if you only traditional books.
There's a one thirty five at DraftKings, and I think
Caesar's two and I like it down to minus one
oh five. Foster Griffin another guy similar to Waka, where
I mean he has a two seven six era and
(08:15):
you look under the hood and he's not that good.
His SIERRA is three seven four. Pretty much every projection
system on Fangraphs has him with a projected era over
four going forward. Plus he's a trade candidate, so it
is possible that they don't push him as hard as
they might normally to make sure that he stays, you know,
(08:37):
healthy and good for the for the trade deadline coming up.
So under out's on Foster Griffin.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
We saw Dustin Mega pulled the other night relatively early,
kind of in the middle of an inning at like
seventy nine pitches. It seemed like he was maybe being
traded in that moment, as his teammates were giving him
hugs in.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
And the dugout.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
But yeah, I think the Cardinals were just like trying
to keep his pitch count low. So I love Derek
targeting these these under outs report props right before the
trade down line, especially in guys who may actually be
trade targets.
Speaker 4 (09:03):
Yeah, Foster Griffin's a big one. He's been a revelation
for the National. I think he's been better than almost
anyone expected for them. I was listening to a podcast
the other day and they were talking about if they
hang out to the National, should they q o him
in the offseason. That's a twenty million dollar commitment. But
maybe you know he's been that good. But I like Derek,
I don't know if he's as good as he's performed
(09:24):
of late, So targeting the outs there pairing Waco with Griffin. Sean,
I'm gonna go to you. This is probably the matchup,
the pitching matchup of the day, and Derek has a
prop in this game too, but I'll go to you first,
Sean reds Pirates Paul Skeins against Hunter Green. A lot
of fun here from both these guys. Curious where they
(09:47):
both fall in your starting pitcher rankings and then which
side you're targeting in this one.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Yeah, see where the rolling rankings have them. I think
thirteenth and forty three for this season. But in terms
of like the rolling thirty day rankings, and again there's
some believers that pull into this. Yeah, Green with some time,
so he fell down. So Green on the thirty day rankings,
I have him eighteenth. I have Skeens fifteenth. Numbers are
pretty comparable over their rolling samples. In fact, Green actually
(10:15):
has some of the better peripherals of late last five
starts three to one expected fifth three point three for Skeens.
Skeins is the slight edge in Sierra Green is the
slight edge and strike up minus walk. But it's all
to say their number is very comparable. Especially late Skeins
has lost two hundred points is spin off of his
fastball since the season started. It started to come back
(10:38):
up a little bit in his past two starts, but
still nowhere near where he was in April May where
he was last year. Just this significant decrease in fastball
spin rate. Could say the same for one Hunter green
Since his return from the IL, his also down about
eighty points, but nowhere near the dramatic long season d
decline that Skeins has had from start to start. Greene
(11:00):
is the few starts removed from the Ale stint. It's
not down nearly as significantly, so I'm not as concerned. Again,
I already quoted to you these stats that he's performed
over the sample where he's had reduced spin. So the
trend line of both pitchers, I think, is going to
just push them on the same level as one another. Again,
that ranking that I decided, the rolling ranking, has them
within two spots of one another. But overall, this reds
(11:23):
offense actually projects the better power and patient lineup for
me and giving them the power upside.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
In a low scoring, low.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Event pitchers dual game where we don't expect a lot
of runs certainly have to favor the team who is
likelier to hit the home run. So I make the
Reds about minus one ten here minus one oh eight.
I would bet them at even money or better. Took
them at plus one ten last night, and I'm happy
again with that down to even money for today's matchup.
(11:51):
I guess of the two, the Reds are the team
you're more concerned about potentially trading pieces away. I've looked
at the list of trade candidates, you know, round baseball,
it's largely starting pitchers, Louis Rise, Dalton var Show, It's
like one other hitter name that pops up. Matt's probably
gonna trade Luis Robert. So there's like nobody in this
game in these lineups that I'm particularly worried about being traded.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
Maybe JJ Blade, well Hunter Green.
Speaker 4 (12:16):
Hunter Green would be the scratch candidate that would be
a trade.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
Is he a potential trade consideration.
Speaker 4 (12:23):
There were some reports yesterday about there's some big buzz
going on around Hunter Green, So I would that's a
good that's a good shout that if you're betting Red's
money line, you know, go the listed picture.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
Out there picture absolutely, yep, yeah, thank you for that. Yeah,
I didn't realize that Green was a potential trade candidate.
I know they locked up Chase Burns. I didn't realize
they were trying to get what they could for Hunter
Green right now. Probably smart considering his injury history. But yeah,
reds to even money. Just make sure you bet listed picture.
Considering Green's potential to get traded, I'd imagine they'll probably
wait till after today.
Speaker 4 (12:53):
Yeah, they do have Green locked. I mean he's makes
fifteen mil next year, sixteen MILLI twenty twenty eight, and
then a team option for twenty one mil in twenty
twenty nine. Not really sure what the mindset is between
of It could just be noise. Maybe they don't trade him,
but I think they're at least listening, and if he
is available, he's right behind. He's the number two behind
(13:14):
Schooble in terms of most sought after starting pictures on
the market. So Red's money line if Hunter Green remains
the starting pitcher tonight from Sean Zarrillo and Derek your
your fade here is in lockstep. We faded Michael Waka,
who's an All star. We faded Force Griffin, Foster Griffin,
(13:34):
who's an All star Forest Griffin. Sean, there's a UFC
pull for you and Derek, You're you're fading Skins here tonight.
Speaker 5 (13:42):
Yes, I am not because I think Skeens is anything
near the talent level of Michael Walker. Obviously, Paul skeins
Is is a great picture. I'm not going to deny that.
But I'm looking at his under seventeen and a half
outs plus one fifty five at bed three six five's
the best odds on the There's also one thirty three
at Caesars that looks good, and I like it down
(14:04):
to plus one ten or so. Like like Sean said,
his stuff has kind of gotten a little bit worse
as the season has gone on. The spin rate has
gone down. He's going into Great American Ballpark today, which
is the toughest park in baseball for home runs, and
it's almost ninety degrees there, so it's even though he's
facing the Reds, it's a tougher matchup all things considered
(14:26):
than you might otherwise think. And yeah, this one he
projects to go under about fifty percent of the time.
So if you're gonna give us big plus money on
what's essentially a coin flip, I will flip that coin
as many times as you'll let me do.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
It Skian's under seventeen and a half outs and sean
to wrap up your final money line of this eighty
grade section. You know, I said, Skeen's and Green is
the best pitching match of the day. It probably is.
This one's probably number two Rangers astros Yvaldi against Brown.
(15:02):
Where are you going with this one?
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Yeah, I'm hoping it isn't because that would mean that
Hudder Brown reverted back to what he was before his
last start. Shut down your White Sox in his last start,
But that was by far the most efficient he'd been
all year, and especially since he came back from his
eye Elston major league average ball rate is around thirty
seven percent. Brown was at fifty one percent to start
before that against the Orioles, forty four, forty five, forty
(15:26):
two percent. The three starts before that, he'd just been sloppy,
couldn't throw strikes. Last start against the White Sox got
it down to thirty three percent, and the called strike
plus whiff rate also went up along with it. So
either Hunter Brown immediately found something or he just had
a really good day. But as I said, and as
I tried to bet Shane Bieber off of consecutive improved
(15:46):
starts in the inning that he couldn't get.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
Out of the first inning or the names.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
One of the worst things I've ever seen, and especially
having the under on that game. Oh god, But you
know that's the thing. Like that is why in terms
of a weighted projection, I've tried to back test and
figure out, you know, how much recency bias to bake
in for these starting pitchers, how much of the season
long metrics to bake into these starting pictures. Yes, Hunter
(16:16):
Brown came off of a phenomenal start in his last outing,
but I still have to bake in everything he did
before that a little bit.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
So I don't have.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Him at his four point nine expected fit or wherever
that currently is. Over the recent sample he's at four
to three on the year. I have him closer to
that four to three number for the year, but I
also can't really upgrade him much beyond that. So all
that to say, nathanyav Aldi has been the much more
consistent starting pitcher. I still rank him as the better
starting pitcher. Beyond that, everything kind of comparable here. Lineups
(16:48):
within a couple of points of each other in terms
of WRC plus Bullpens probably slightly prefer the Astros, but
there's a recipiece that gets them a little bit closer.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
Today.
Speaker 3 (16:57):
I make the Rangers a slight favorite.
Speaker 2 (16:59):
I have them are minus want to wait, I would
take them at even money or better. I think they
actually went out from plus one ten to plus one
fifteen last night. So somebody likes the form that Brown
was in in his last start. But as I said,
I do have to bake in the things he did
before that. I mean, you have all the strikeout minus
walk is. I think quadruple Brown's over the recent sample
(17:20):
five times Browns twenty six percent versus five percent again
over the rolling samples. So baked in some of the improvement,
but cannot bake in all of it. Take the reindeer,
Stephen Money.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
Derek wrap up our eighty grade section here with a
couple more outs props. These are not all stars, These
are young potential future all stars. Haven't really shown a
ton of it yet this year. You've got one of
the pictures you're targeting in Twins Mariners tonight, and then
the other one is over in where Brewers Angels throw
(17:56):
us those final two out recorded props.
Speaker 5 (17:58):
Yeah, look at it Shane Drohan under seventeen and a
half half outs plus one oh five at bet MGM
best odds on the board. There's also a minus one
oh nine at DraftKings, and I like it down to uh.
I mean theoretically minus two hundred or so. The BA
the bad X is only projecting about fourteen and a
half outs here for Drohan, so we're getting some some
(18:21):
really significant edge on this one. I think part of
it is because the Angels offense is maybe a little underrated.
Can can take pitches, can draw walks. Drohan in quite
a few of his starts hasn't been allowed to go
especially deep, only like eighty eighty five pitches, and in general,
the bad X is not really a big fan of Drohan.
(18:42):
He's he has a three five to one e R
this year, but the projected DRA going forward is four
to seven seven.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
Uh.
Speaker 5 (18:48):
He's striking out a batter per a batter per nine
or a batter per inning, you know, not a nine
strikeout per nine whatever I'm trying to say. But his
stuff only profiles is about average. His stuff plus is average.
His the backcast stuff profile is right around average, so
definitely expecting some regression for Drohan and looking at his
(19:11):
outs prop here under and then next one we have
Zebbie Matthews under seventeen and a half outs plus one
ten at hard Rock. There's also one of seven at
DraftKings and Caesars, and I like this one down to
minus one fifty minus one sixty or so. Another one
where the BADX is only projecting about fifteen outs here
for ZEBI about a sixty percent chance that he's going under,
(19:32):
so we'll take the under on him too.
Speaker 4 (19:36):
All right, that's five out recorded props, three money lines.
By the way, uh Red's money line schemes under seventeen
and a half outs. You can't find a lot of
books that'll let your part SGP out recorded props. Hard
Rock lets you do it. Red's money line Paul Skins
under seventeen and a half outs round plus two to fifty.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
If you're the sgping sort and.
Speaker 4 (19:56):
Want to throw one of Sean's favorite bets with one
of Derek's favorite tonight before we move on, don't forget
to send it for Action Pro for real time pick alerts
from experts like Shan Zarillo. Grant me for Derek Cardi
and our entire Action Network team plus he can access
our pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive
analytics team. Just go to actionnetwork dot com slash pro
(20:18):
get twenty dollars off the annual price with the promo
code Pod twenty. So don't miss out on the best
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Pro use the promo code pod twenty to get twenty
dollars off a year of Action Pro all right, sixty
grade section taking it down a notch a little bit,
(20:38):
but four more props from Derek. Three totals here from
Sean Derek, I'll start with you first. You guys both
have picks in this game. I'll Derek go first with
his prop here in Red Sox Dodgers, and then Sean
has a play on the total. We've got Ranger Suarez
going for the Red Sox Dodgers going with a bullpen game.
I think Edgardo Henriquez is opening for them. But Derek,
(21:01):
you're targeting Suarez here.
Speaker 5 (21:04):
Yeah, I'm looking at Suarez under four, under four and
a half strikeouts plus one twenty five. The polymarket is
the best odds on the board, and I like it
down to minus minus one hundred minus one oh five
or so. This is split. A lot of books have
it at five and a half, so I'm fine taking
the five and a half. Also, it's out there right
(21:26):
now like minus one fifty minus one sixty, I'm fine
taking it there. I do think the books will start
to flip to four and a half, says the day
goes on. So I like the four and a half
more than the five and a half if you can
get it at like plus one twenty five or plus
one twenty. The bad ax is projecting about four point
three strikeouts fo Suarez here today, so it's gonna be
(21:48):
good value on either one. But when you run the
math on it, the under four and a half at
plus money shows better value than the five and a
half that's superjuiced. So I'll take the under four and
a half here For suarez second start, coming off the
IL probably will be limited to around eighty pitches or so,
based on what he did in his first start facing
what is a really good team in the Dodgers, not
(22:10):
an especially strikeout heavy team in the Dodgers, and so yeah,
I'm taking the under on Suarez.
Speaker 4 (22:18):
Ranger Suarez under four and a half strikeouts. You compair that,
I mean fading a starting pitcher, and the strikeout department
doesn't necessarily not correlate with an under Sean will go
to you for this bet and where you're looking at
And we talked right before we started recording here. One
of the first things I do when I log in
(22:38):
every morning is look at Sean's Bartolo tool, which is
available again with an Action Pro sub. Go in the
Action app, go to actionetwork dot com. You can look
at a breakdown of Sean's game to game projections.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Every day.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
You look at his percentage edges for every game, and
I like to look and see what is his highest
projected edge.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
And we started.
Speaker 4 (22:57):
Recording and I said, is this number right in Dodgers
Red Sox because I'm surprised to see an edge this high.
You said, it's right, So tell us, Uh, you know
why you like this total so much? Because uh, I
love it myself.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Yeah, So there's you know, the main concern is the
fact that the top two relievers on both teams are
probably down today. Edwin as Tanner Scott threw back to
back days for the Dodgers and the Red Sox have
used Weisert and Chatman three out of the past five days,
three out of the past four days each. So don't
anticipate the highest leverage relievers for either team getting involved
in this game. But anytime there's a Bolton game, you
(23:37):
are going to see the times through the order split avoided,
certainly by the Red Sox or certainly by the Dodgers.
In this game, they're not going to expose any of
their pitchers more than one or two more than one
time through the order. We'll climb Jack Dryer probably your
likeliest candidates to go multiple innings. Jack Driver's been phenomenal,
twenty two percent strike up on his walk, three point
(23:57):
one expected fifth, three five expected the ra So there's
plenty of good arms in this Dodgers' bullpen, even beyond
their highest leverage arms. There's plenty of good arms on
this Dodgers' staff, even beyond the name brands starting pitchers.
I think this was initially supposed to be a Yamamoto
bump day today. But also the Dodgers' offense against lefties
as opposed to righty's about sixteen points worse. They're the
(24:18):
best offensive baseball against right ahead and pitching about a
one to twenty WRC plus, but against lefties they fall
to a one oh four they rank closer to eighth.
You can see it pretty consistently. Anytime you put a
leftie against this offense, they have a much better chance
of shutting them down. Unfortunately, as Derek alluded to, Suarez
probably not going to go pass five or so innings
(24:39):
in the start up, pulled prematurely in his last start
after coming off of the IL, so you can't bake
in too much of him. You may get Bryan Watson
trying to build a bridge to the layer dinner innings here.
But all that said, I still make this total around
seven and a half. Expect heavy bullpen involvement potentially on
both sides tonight, no relievers getting exposed, and the Dodgers
in their lesser split for at least the first five.
(25:01):
Haven't quantified that quote unquote course field effect. You know,
I would have investigated further whether there is a effect
for teams coming off of Sacramento going to different parks
like there is for teams coming off.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
Of Course going to different parks.
Speaker 2 (25:16):
Not something really have sufficient data on yet, but maybe
worth looking into at some point to see whether there
may be a thing, some offensive inflation for teams after
coming from not altitude in Sacramento, but from this offensive
haven in Sacramento, where they're like, if I lift the ball,
it has a good chance of going out to a
normal park like Dodger Stadium, where the balls may not
(25:37):
carry as far. But all that's to say, under eight
and a half down to eight at minus one ten
between the Dodgers and the Red Sox, one of the
bigger projected edges I've had this year in terms of
a pregame total. Unfortunately, the totals though, of just not
performed in concert with the movement. We are getting good
movement on our totals run full run moves, half run moves.
Historical data says these should be performing much better. Just
(26:00):
the baseball has been chaotic this year. Ballpark Palle had
a post yesterday discussing the recent ballflight the flat that
hummers per game have re crashed in July compared to
were in June and May. So I don't know if
we're seeing any third new ball this season, just getting
some random results that the balls aren't carrying out. But
I want to go back into investigating barrel distance and whatnot,
(26:23):
because the expected home run rate based upon the way
balls are being hit has cratered once again, and it
is essentially the inverse of the change that we saw
in late May into early June.
Speaker 4 (26:37):
Good stuff there, Dodgers, Red Sox. Yeah, I'm I've been
that one for sure. I generally go in and look
at your highest projected edges, whether you have a good
day or a bad day, your top edges. I'm mushing
the hell out of you right now. I'm sorry, but
your top edges have done quite well of late. So
when I saw the ten point something percent edge, my
eyes lit up a little bit. So hopefully that can
(26:59):
come through for us tonight. Derek love this one big
plus money prop here. You talked about why you're not
a big fan of Drohan today, So why not look
at a nice big plus three seventy five prop on
the opposing picture in that game again? Brewers Angels, Shane
(27:20):
Drohan and Ryan Johnson for the Angels.
Speaker 5 (27:23):
YEP, looking at Ryan Johnson to record the win at
plus three seventy five at DraftKings, and I like it
down to plus three h five for a lot of
the reasons I mentioned earlier about Drohan. I'm not really
buying into him. I think the Angels offense is a
little underrated. Ryan Johnson solid enough young pitcher, so I
like him at the odds are being given.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
And then where are we at here?
Speaker 4 (27:50):
Sean another total here in Cardinals Blue Jays. Was wondering
if we were going to get a chance to talk
about our old friend Dylan Ceaes today. He's on the
mound Cam Schlitler was great the other day. They're going
to go back and forth, head to head. It's to
the one really nice awards race going on right now.
Speaking of if you want to also go into a
(28:13):
little bit, you had a new piece go up on
Actionnetwork dot Com Action app this morning. We've talked a
lot about your Bartolo tool for your daily projections, and
we've talked from time to time about award race is
on the show, and now you've got a new tool
available to Action Pro users to help break down awards.
So talk a little bit about that and then the
(28:34):
total you like here in Cardinals Blue Jays.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Yeah, I got tired of rerunning my awards projection, so
I ended up automating the thing. This is a blended
end of season projection that is weighed against voter behavior
or data points that I've discovered are most important to
accumulating vote share in each of these categories, were the
biggest driver among them, but for each category there are
(28:57):
different data points that lead to expected voter behavior based
upon pass voting. Difficult to quantify voter love or fatigue
for a guy like show Hey Otani, But do currently
project an edge on Otani? I know I discussed betting PCA.
I bet PC eight about plus two thirty last week.
I still make Otani about minus one sixty. He's currently
around minus one thirty. So this projection, these projections for
(29:20):
all six main award markets, AL and nl mbp c
I on Rookie of the Year, They will update daily
based upon updated end.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
Of season projections.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
Performance guys had last night will fold in to those
projections and those stats, and these will recalculate automatically. Yesterday
I made PCA I think around plus one fifty. Today
the model hasn't closer to plus two hundred, so it's
going to change on a day to day basis based
on how those end of season projections update. Injuries, et
cetera will kneecap guys Otani's pitching projections as they adjust,
(29:52):
his MVP rankings will adjust too. So if you're looking
for potential futures bets down the stretch, check that out
and I'll have one coming out for two futures next week.
Have held it back until after the trade deadline just
because all the teams who kind of show up on
their as value quote unquote are betting essentially against the
opposite of buyers or sellers, because it doesn't factor in
these moves that these teams are about to make. So
(30:13):
I've held back the team futures until the trade deadline passes.
But right now you can check out the player awards
with team futures coming soon and gonna have some also
some other tools rolling leader boards, you know, trend lines
for guys who've added velocity, et cetera. Things like that
that you can use not only for betting purposes but
also for fantasy DFS purposes.
Speaker 3 (30:33):
So keep an eye out for all that.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
And then your Cardinals Blue Jays total.
Speaker 2 (30:40):
Yeah, I bet the under eight here eight minus one fifteen.
It has moved down to seven and a half. I
don't really like it. Past minus one oh five I
projected around seven point two. We also may get the
roof open here in Toronto tonight, which would boost the
run scoring environment, kind of anticipating it'll be open. Temperature
should beautiful tonight. Kyle, he is a very interesting pitcher
(31:01):
because I don't think he's particularly good, but the separation
of like predictive metrics and also hard hit stuff is
all over the place. He has a five point two
expected array a fifty percent hard hit rate, but yet
he has a three ninety nine expected fit a four
to twenty three sierra. He has very good command, he
(31:23):
doesn't really allow many walks. The ball rate, you know,
as I discussed with other pitchers being a erratic, very
consistently low for him, you know, one of the better
ball rates, one of the more efficient guys on this slate,
one of six location plus ratings. So he has good command,
but in ninety one plus stuff plus figure all the
hard hit stuff like very disparate in terms of the
(31:45):
UH the results that he gets, you know, and a
big gap in terms of the expected indicators. Essentially, But
this Jay's offense in terms of power not one of
the bigger threats for him in my opinion. This is
a team who fouls pitches off, who may brumble against
the guy who's essentially pitching contact because the Jays are
hitting for contact, they're not hitting for power. Vlaggero Junior
(32:06):
somehow does not have a home run at home this year.
That is one of the more mysterious stats in all
of baseball. But Dylan Sez has been a bona fide
AlSi young candidate. We have a ticket on him. As
I said, at around thirty five to one or forty
to one, probably needs Splitler to get hit somewhere down
the stretch in order to end up overtaking. They do
project though Neck and Neck literally tied for war at
(32:28):
the end of the season. Splitler just may have the
better counting stats, the lower ERA and whip.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
But all of that.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
Is to say I think Dylan Cees is phenomenal like
him to potentially keep this total under tonight, and he
is not a trade candidate. Kevin Gausman likely to be traded.
Dylan Seeese off of a fresh contract will not be.
But do not bet the under seven and a half
pass minus one ten here that would be my firm cutoff.
Really prefer minus one oh five between the Jas and
the Cards. And hopefully this movement towards the under ends
(32:57):
up cashing for us. We want two to zero bets.
That moved our direction yesterday, so hopefully we can keep
it going.
Speaker 4 (33:01):
Today, staying right here in Cardinals Blue Jays, Derek has
a prop in this one talking about trade candidates in
this game. This is certainly one of them. There was
reports yesterday that Dalton Varshow might be of interest to
the Phillies, which is notable because his father, Gary Varshow
(33:22):
was a Philly player and coach, I believe, And Dalton
var Show is named after Darren Dalton because he was
Gary's best friend when they were on the Phillies, so
he could go to his dad slash. I know his
dad only spent a year there, but he coached there.
And Darren Dalton obviously very well known for the Phillies.
(33:44):
So tell us about your your Dalton. I almost called
him Darren Dalton, your Dalton var Show prop today, Derek.
Speaker 5 (33:53):
Yeah, I'm betting on Varshow to draw a walk at
plus three hundred at bet three six y five. There's
also a two fifty at seas and I like it
down to plus two thirty five. This is one that's
more of just a math play than anything else. Like obviously,
Lay he has pretty good control of our show has
been struggling this year, although his walk grate has been
more or less in line with what he normally does.
But really this one just comes down to, uh, comes
(34:16):
down to the math. He projects a draw a walk
about thirty three percent of the time. So if you're
gonna give us plus three hundred on that, you're giving
us really good value. That's uh, that's really all comes
down to.
Speaker 4 (34:27):
The power hasn't quite been there for Varshow this year,
but he still gets on base at a decent clip. Sean,
your final bet on today's card one more total. Not
a game we've talked about yet. We talked about We
have talked about this game. Actually, Derek had a prop
on it earlier. We talked about the Twins with their
miraculous win against the Royals yesterday. Now they go to
(34:50):
Seattle Zebbie Matthews as we mentioned, and then Bryce Miller
on the other side, And you like the total here.
Speaker 2 (34:56):
Yeah, it's like eight minus one of five, under eight
minus one of five last night, I like it to
seven and a half at even money. It's roughly where
it's gotten to eight minus one twenty seven and a
half even money, so would not bet it much pass
where it is currently. But Bryce Miller, Brian Wu, these
Mariners pitchers have never shown more drastic home road splits.
They've always shown home road splits, but it's usually closer
(35:17):
to like a run. This year, both of them pushing
closer to run and a half two runs two seventy
four at home for Bryce Miller, three to ninety eight
on the road. Strike at minus Waco's from thirty one
percent at home to seventeen percent on the road. For
whatever is, these guys are just much harder to hit
in their home park. The visibility off of the batter's eye,
(35:37):
you know, the way they throw their arm, angles the fastballs.
I think all of that plays into it. I don't
think it's as simple as just like being at home
in a park where more strikeouts occur. I think they
specifically do have characteristics about them that have caused these
drastic home road splits. And the Mariners bill bend after
losing back to back days against the Dodgers, should have
(35:58):
all their high leverage for leavers available tonight. Alex Hoppy
Cole Wilcox, the two I would mark down is unavailable
both pitch Wednesday and Monday. Wednesday and Thursday, but spire
for aer Bizarto unders Munio's all should be good to
go for tonight. Their highest lever arms behind Miller, so
hopefully that should be enough to limit the Twins to
(36:18):
two runs are fewer, and then hopefully the Twins staff
can limit the Mariners to five runs or fewer and
we can keep this game at seven or below. So
the under seven and a half to even money under
eight to minus one twenty between the Twins.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
And the Mariners.
Speaker 2 (36:33):
My final total bet for today's like couple, I'm gonna
keep an eye on the Philly is over. I want
to see an umpire before I consider firing on the over.
Nine There the Cubs under, As I mentioned the weathers,
the wind is a little bit like goofy there.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Keep an eye on that this afternoon.
Speaker 2 (36:47):
The Braves under seems a little bit high at nine,
even though Bryce Elder is involved three other totals. I'm
keeping an eye on the A's money line seems a
little bit wide considering Nick Kurtz with the most bizarre
as an aside, Nick Kurtz with the most bizarre activation
last night. He was scheduled for an MRI. I've never
seen a guy scheduled for an MRI and then play
the same day. I don't think you can get MRI
(37:09):
results back that quickly. He got hit on the arm
on Thursday, they said he was going to have an
m On Wednesday, they said he was going to have
an MRI, and then he was in the lineup last night.
Now the whole market moved assuming he would be out.
The Red Sox went from like minus one thirty five
to minus one seventy. They ended up getting a comeback win.
But yeah, if you laid the juice early on the
Red Sox yesterday, I got that market.
Speaker 3 (37:30):
Movement didn't buy off of it.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
Kind of an undeserved win because Kurtz was not supposed
to be in that lineup and it ended up influencing
the game. Ironically enough, he was the last mine up
in the ninth ending with the tying run on second base.
So maybe it was deserved. Maybe Nick Kurtz was, you know,
significantly less than what you would normally handicap him at.
But just had to shout that out. That was a
bizarre a very very bizarre lineup announcement that he would
be in last night.
Speaker 3 (37:52):
That is nothing to play for.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
He was scheduled for an MRI, and I've never ever
seen a guy scheduled for testing end up playing the
same day.
Speaker 4 (38:00):
Talked about potential trade risks this weekend, that Tiger's as
game definitely one to watch with Casey Mize and Jeffrey
Springs both potential trade candidates. Other ones just quickly that
we haven't mentioned yet, obviously Marlins and your Mets Sean
Freddy Perrault to starting tonight. That could that's one to
definitely keep an eye on.
Speaker 1 (38:20):
Well, what's that.
Speaker 3 (38:21):
Sale a vita, Freddy Parota?
Speaker 4 (38:23):
Yes, all right, Derek has one more prop. And you know,
we talk a lot about Derek liking to fade, fade, aces, fade,
top name starting pitchers, all stars, et cetera. I actually
like when you make bets like this a little bit more.
Mitch Bratt of the Diamondbacks against the Guardians. Mitch Bratt,
for the record, He's made four starts since getting called up.
(38:45):
He's throwing fifteen to two thirds innings. He's walked eleven
batters and allowed eleven runs. Walk totals in those four
games two, three, one, and five last time out, and
I'm guessing that five is why this number has gotten
to the point where you now see you in it, Derek.
Speaker 5 (39:01):
Yeah, Mitch Brad has been walking a ton of guys
in his four major league starts. But it's only four
major league starts. So I'm looking at Brat under one
and a half walks loud plus one thirteen at DraftKings,
and I like it down to minus one forty five
or so. Brad, if you look at his numbers in
the minors, he was actually like really good with his control,
(39:25):
so going forward he projects to get a lot better
only four starts, so we don't want to put a
lot of, you know, too much weight on only four
starts because anything can happen. And he's also a guy
who in two of his four starts only through I
(39:45):
think fifty four and fifty eight pitches or something like that,
and the other ones he's thrown eighty four and ninety two.
So really kind of a wide range of outcomes on
how deep he's going to go into this game. I'm
projecting him around eighty one pitches, but really definitely expecting
some regression in that walk rate, and so I like
the under here on his walks.
Speaker 4 (40:05):
Get Mitch Bratt under one and a half walks and
we can have a what's the I'm not gen z
enough if we have a Brat Summer that the Charlie
XCX reference or Eddie our producer, can turn that into an.
Speaker 1 (40:18):
Episode title of some sort.
Speaker 4 (40:19):
I'm sure Bras Summer, that's that's that's that Charlie XCX,
right am.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
I I'm way too got it. Yeah, yeah, I'm way
too old.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
For this show.
Speaker 1 (40:29):
We're very hip and cool. All right.
Speaker 4 (40:31):
That's our sixty grade section. We just have one forty
grade bet today from Derek. So let's rip through that
real quick before we get out of here, because we
are running long. This game is I didn't even see.
We're going back to Rangers astros here Ivaldi against Brown
and you have a hit or prop here, Derek.
Speaker 5 (40:50):
Yeah, Nicky Lopez under half of a hit plus run
plus RBI at plus one thirty nine at DraftKings, and
I like it down to plus one seventeen. Nicky Lopez
is obviously a weak hitter. He's going to hit near
the bottom of the lineup facing what is theoretically a
pretty good pitcher in Hunter Brown and a good amount
of pinch hit risk, which is what I like the
(41:10):
most projects for about twenty five percent chance of getting
pinch hit. Four might be a little bit higher when
you consider the amount of lefties that are actually in
this Royals bullpen. I think they have four or five
wrested lefties. Four four rested lefties, including the closer and
the setup man. So definitely a chance that we see
(41:31):
a lefty come in after Brown and that Lopez gets lifted.
Speaker 4 (41:36):
When that happens, Nicky Lopez has babbitped his way to
a three hundred average for the Rangers thus far, about
as slapstick of a hitter as you can get. So
love that Chicago boy, Nicky Lopez. For the record, before
we get out of here, I do just want to
say I'm disappointed in both of you guys that neither
of you had a bet in Giants Padres, just because
(41:57):
I really wanted to say the name brad Lee Rodrie,
so I'm saying it right now before we get out
of here. Carson wizen Hunt and brad Lee Rodriguez is
the matchup of the day from a name perspective. That's
gonna do it. For today's episode of Payoff Pitch. Thanks
so much for tuning in. If you'd like to tail
some of the bets on today's episode, look for the
quick slip links in the episode description. Also, don't forget
(42:18):
to download the free, award winning Action Network app. You
can follow shan Zaillo and Derek Carty in there as
they log picks each and every day. Also, please leave
us a five star rating and review wherever you listen
to the podcast. We will be back next week. We'll
be back on Monday with an episode of Payoff Pitch.
It might be a weird episode as we get ready
for the trade deadline that day, but we'll do our
(42:39):
best to come up with something for you there. For
Shonzarello and Derek Carty, I'm Colin Richard. Thanks again for
listening to Payoff Pitch. Action Network's a major league Baseball
betting podcast. Good luck with all your bettors. Poking his
(43:03):
crown on his free what a trigger?
Speaker 3 (43:06):
No, What wants to Leave
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