July 10, 2026 • 42 mins
On today's episode, Jason quickly discusses France's continued domination in the World Cup. Later, Super Bowl-winning analytics leader Ryan Paganetti swings by to discuss his path to the NFL, the role Doug Pederson played in his advancement in the industry, how coaches like Ben Johnson and Sean McVay use analytics to gain a competitive advantage over the competition, the likelihood that the Philadelphia Eagles' famed Tush Push gets phased out of the NFL, and much more!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up Firefan, It's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Boyer
for Friday, July the tenth. We are heading into a
exciting time, folks. The World Cup is winding down, NBA
Summer League is popping off, and we're starting just beginning
(00:31):
to dive into the NFL. Oh I love it. It's so fun,
very exciting time. Today's guest is a superstar. He's never
been on the pod before. I don't know if he's
done any podcasts before, so you know, on social media,
and this is dated back to the beginning of my
radio days. I would love guys who aren't out there
in the ether. I'd like to try to find guys
who hadn't really popped and give them a platform because
(00:54):
they got good quality stuff. And this gentleman I saw
on social media and I was string him for a
long time and he's like, yeah, I work for a
team I can't. I was like, oh, okay, So his
name is Ryan Paganetti and he is an analytics superstar.
And I know that analytics is a buzzy term right now,
especially in the NBA, but this dude is like real guys.
(01:16):
And when I say real, I mean he's like on
the headset with NFL coaches trying to get them to
go for two when they're down fourteen. And he's got
some good stories for you from Philadelphia, how he broke
into this industry, what he thinks about Mighty Ben Johnson,
(01:36):
some thoughts on the season, Mike McDonald McVeigh. I mean,
there's a lot of good stuff here. The turnof Pot
on the NFL two weeks ago was phenomenal, and Ryan
pretty much matches that, maybe exceeds it. I'm assuming Ryan's
gonna blow up after this pod comes out, not just
because of this, but the guy Sharp and he's gonna
be a lot of places. So that's a name you
(01:57):
definitely need to know. Before we get to Ryan. I'll
just do quickly two minutes on France to Morocco.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Zero.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
It wasn't particularly close France, you know, zero zero at
halftime after Bape was denied on the PK and then
the floodgates open and it was a Bape and de
Bellet back to back and France is stacked and loaded
and they win an advance easy cover for the model
on the under and on France. Now, today's game Spain
(02:24):
Belgium is a little tricky and the model only give
a lean. But obviously we're running hot, so I don't
mind playing the leen to Spain and the under again.
But interestingly, the market is kind of saying over, which
is odd because something's got to break here. Spain hasn't
give it up a goal. The Belgium offense is disjointed.
(02:46):
Has had moments against the US and Senegal, but otherwise
has been kind of sloppy and ugly. We shall see.
I think Spain wins this one and we get the
Spain France game. By the way, I know everybody loves France.
Spain beat them the last two meetings in good matches,
and yes, I'm babe played. The Spain team is ridiculously stacked.
(03:07):
We'll see if they get by Belgium. All right, without
further ado, here is our guest, the one and only
Ryan Paganetti.
Speaker 1 (03:14):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to
listen live. You know, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports
(03:34):
fans want, but for everything he doesn't, he knows the
guy who does.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into
Straight Fire a brand new guest. And oh boy, this
guy is spectacular. So the fun story is, I've tried
to get him on the podcast for years. I saw
some of his stuff on social media and it was like, oh,
that's certainly interesting. And every time he was locked up
(04:01):
by teams in the NFL. And so now he's not
employed in the NFL. Let's welcome in, Ryan Paganetti. Did
I say that right?
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Ryan? Yes? Correct, I appreciate you, thanks for having yea.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
He is a Dartmouth grad. He's cooked up some unbelievable
special sauce that got him hired. His NFL research is strategy.
Game management tendencies got him hired by the Eagles, Jaguars Raiders.
He was on the headset for that Eagles team that
won the Super Bowl. I mean, listen, Ryan, I don't
(04:35):
even know where to start. Let's start with you before
we get to the NFL and all the number of
stuff I'm most interested in your background. We have people
on they talk about like their parents, like how did
you get into something so niche as game management for
the NFL and numbers.
Speaker 4 (04:51):
So that whole kind of the analytics world in the
NFL has really exploded over the last ten years. And
when I when I was trying to get in, some
teams didn't even have departments.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
They might have had one or two guys.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
No jobs were ever really posted online, and so it
was one of those situations where networking and having connections
was like really valuable.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
And I grew up in New England.
Speaker 4 (05:18):
I part of my experience there is I went to
a ton of Patriots games.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
I was there for.
Speaker 4 (05:24):
You know, my first memories with New England were in
two thousand, so I basically witnessed the entire dynasty there
where they just crushed people and it. I definitely kind
of had a quantitative mindset. I wanted to play as
a player. I went to Dartmouth to play. I had
about three different medical reasons that that sort of slowed
me down there, but I wanted to sort of stay involved,
(05:46):
and you know, so I started trying to reach out
to teams. I realistically back then, like the probability there's
so many people Like if a team, for example, were
to put out, hey, we're putting out a coaching assistant
job for the Jets, They're going to get like thirty
five thousand applicants right now and then, and they'll get
people that that are like FBS offensive coordinators applying, or
(06:10):
or people with pH I used to get resume sent
to me of people with PhDs that we're just dying
to work for free, and they'll be like all work
is for free is and that there's just such massive
demand to work in the industry. So I was, I'm like, okay,
I went to going to a pretty good school, Like
I was somewhat optimistic about, you know, my resume. But
(06:31):
the way I sort of got my foot in the
door is that my older brother, his name is TJ.
He's actually now run game coordinator with the Saints. But
my older brother got his start. He went to University
of Oregon back when Chip Kelly got hired to be
the offensive coordinator at Oregon, and my older brother just
volunteered to work for Chip as an undergraduate student. So
(06:55):
that was when Chip, you know, kind he came from
un H and he sort of took college football by
store they had, you know that they're running Statue of
Liberty with Dennis Dixon and Chip took over as the
head coach two years later, and my brother was actually
the guy signaling in all the play when they were
going one hundred miles an hour. My brother was the
guy standing next to Chips signaling in all the plays,
(07:16):
which was like a really cool moment for my family.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
They ended up going to the National Championship, you know, just.
Speaker 4 (07:20):
Barely losing to Auburn, Yes, three point game, you know,
crazy to look back. But so when Chip got his
opportunity in the league, I was still in school. I
had met him a few different times, and he had
a willingness to just bring me in when I graduated.
So I was super grateful for that, And so I
(07:43):
came in for Chips last year in Philly. Season didn't
go well, and after that my attitude was had always
been unwilling to do whatever it takes to get to
work in the league. You know, when there's when there
was a head coach change, and in particular that head
coach sort of hand selected you. Things usually not not
great for you. But I was very grateful that Howie
(08:04):
Roseman was was open to keeping me around and letting
me approve myself, and I was my attitude was like, hey,
do you want me to do you want me to coach?
You have me to scout? Do you have me to
fill water bottles? Do you have to analyze data? Whatever
I gotta do. And I just I jokingly tell people
just I that that offseason they were sort of in
the world of potentially upgrading the quarterback. So I you know,
(08:27):
there was a day there where they said, you know,
we need somebody to go grab this player at the airport,
you know, in the Philly airport's like ten minutes away.
I'm like, okay, I'll do it, and I go grab
this team mini van and I go drive to the
airport and pick up Carson Wentz for his Top thirty visit,
and me and him were talking about North Dakota stuff.
I didn't really think, like, we're not going to take
this guy. And then sure enough, like you know, we
ended up drafting him and he was kind of a
(08:48):
core player there, and it was it was a super
cool experience. But I Doug was trying to sort of
model his operation similar to Andy Reid because that was
sort of his mentor and who he had worked with
for a long time. And so Andy had a guy
that was his statistical coordinator for his coaching staff. And
(09:10):
so when Doug took over, after like a few weeks
of getting to know him, you know, he basically offered
for me to sort of be his coaching analytics guy.
And I was really grateful for the opportunity. It sort
of worked out like perfectly. It was probably the optimal job.
If I if you told me when I was fifteen
years old what my dream job would be, I would
say probably say something like that, and to sort of
(09:32):
get my foot in the door, and and and for
that to actually happen, like I feel like I almost
kind of won the lottery. And that being said, my
attitude always was if you watch New England, watch some
of these teams in different sports, like watch watch the
team shooting three point attempts and in basketball, watching baseball,
(09:54):
what they're doing, Like there's there was a lot of
really significant edges that were not being taken advantage of
in the NFL, And you'd get this group of people
on the internet or doctorate type people who would always
point out, oh, team should go for more fourth downs,
but they should go for two point conversions, they should run,
they should do this or that, and the ninety nine
(10:15):
percent of coaches were like, these guys just don't get it.
They don't know the instincts, they don't know the gut.
And I was really grateful that Doug's attitude was if
it helps us, let's do it. And at times I
had to sort of tiptoe like and for example, you know,
I had you I had more pushback from assistant coaches
(10:36):
than I did from you know, other people in the
building or in like the public, where you might have
a sixty year old position coach who's he's never seen
a team that he's worked for go for a fourth
and one, you know, outside their own you know, outside
the forty yard line his entire career, and he's like,
that's not football. Or there was a time early in
(10:57):
the twenty seventeen season where I had met with Doug
in the offseason and we had agreed, like, Okay, we're
going to go for two if we score a touchdown
to go from fourteen to eight, we're going to go
for two. And that was an analytics friendly strategy. No
one had ever done.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
It, and you hold on, you sold him on that.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
And he and he he was one hundred percent on
board with doing it. And so this is this is
a week It was week two or three in our
Super Bowl season. So at the previous year were seven
and nine. The Philly fans hated Doug. They wanted to
get rid of them. We were like one in one
or whatever. And but I said it on the headset
because we were down fourteen to the Chiefs and we
were driving and I just brought it up. I'm like, hey, Doug,
(11:37):
this is that situation to go for two. And I
had assistance getting on there, like what are you talking about?
Like what you're you're looking at the rock chart. They're
freaking out in the middle of the game. And I'm
sort of flustered because I Doug had agreed to do
this like he was. He had endorsed that he had
saw the data and he was on board with it,
but these other parties had not. And so ultimately wet
(12:00):
She did score. It was kind of a meaningless point
at a point at the end of the game where
down eight and we kicked the extra point in part
because of these coaches speaking up no way, and the
day the day after the game, I said Doug, like,
if you want me to really, if you really want
to buy in on this stuff, like I need you
to trust me, and I need you to like sort
of communicate to the rest of the staff like that
(12:21):
this is what we're going to do, because like that
was so dysfunctional and whether it's wait.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Hold on, hold on, I'm looking at the box score,
so there was only eight seconds left, right, yes.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
But but basically what happens is like when that drive begins,
you need to communicate that information, like, Okay, in the
event we score on the drive, we don't want to
be wasting time like after a touchdown saying hy should
we should we go for it? You're like you need
to really make that decision well in advance, so whether
it's on a timeout on the drive or prior and.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
So like one of the things.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
So so you didn't bring this up after the fact
in front of the other coaches. You just brought it
up to Doug because you thought would you down?
Speaker 4 (12:58):
I thought I thought I was physically assaulted. At the
There was people so upset and they were so adamant
that I was reading the chart that I had wrong,
And meanwhile I'm scrambling like, you know, you're doing this
in an NFL game in front of I don't know
ten million people watching or and and and I'm trying
to manage that and communicate information.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
It's total chaos.
Speaker 4 (13:18):
And anyways, the next day he sort of conveyed to
the whole staff, He's like, look, I want to know
what analytics says on every single situation. That's what I
hired this person to do. Do not talk when it
comes to this stuff.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
WHOA.
Speaker 4 (13:30):
And when he did that, like, it was really kind
of pivotal moment, A pivotal moment for myself, and I
think it's really kind of a pivotal moment for the
league in terms of analytics users, because from that moment
on we started we were going for a lot of
fourth downs and it was we were I think we
ended up number one in the league in fourth down
attempts or whatever that season. But you know, I bring
(13:53):
up a controversial situation, Hey it's fourth and X and
anything two or less as a go for it, and
him giving me sort of the green light to communicate
that information. And then we also happened to convert a
number of fourth downs in a row, so it sort
of maybe maybe it looked a little bit better that
it sort of coincided there. And then you know, a
(14:14):
lot of people look back at that twenty seventeen season
where we ended up leading the league there in fourth
downs and we had the Philly Special, we had another
fourth down in the in the fourth quarter that we got,
and they sort of looked look at that as the
turning point for analytics buying in the league because there
was like an actual document and example of success.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
So I'm I'm excited about that. Like it was. It
was a really great time.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
My brother actually was still on the staff too, so
we kind of we both got to win win a
Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Together, which was sort of surreal.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
And from that moment on, things in the league have
really taken off with with with analytics usage and buy in,
whether it's whether it's for decisions in games or game planning,
or for the draft or for captus visions like it's
I would say almost every team has some kind of
(15:04):
data analysis going into most of their major decisions, and
you still get some teams that are a little bit
more stubborn and against doing it. But like if you're
not employing people to sort of study all these different
things like you're really far far behind at this point.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
So I looked it up. You guys, that's twenty six
on fourth sixty five percent. That's pretty amazing. Now, obviously
you're at the forefront of this, but I have to ask, like,
did you build your own model? Like this chart that
you keep referencing, was that yours? Is that proprietary or
is that like a widely known chart.
Speaker 4 (15:41):
So there's a number of different public models that are available,
Like you might see a team go for a fourth
down in week two, and some people actually have posted
like totally open source data where you can see what
their model says. But at the time there was some
public research into the top. We had internal fourth down
(16:02):
models that we also used, but just for a frame
of reference, Like I had a book of somewhere around
four hundred to five hundred thousand situations that I would follow,
and so essentially like what's the score differential, how much
time is remaining the what's the distance to go, what's
the field position, what's our timeouts, what's their timeouts? And
(16:24):
so really a ton of work went into sort of
building that book and finding all these sort of edge
cases and sort of selling the coach on some of
these obscure ones that maybe are are are something that
is a little bit unconventional, but that's sort of the process,
and I'd say most of the models generally agree. Sometimes
(16:45):
they deviate a little bit, like a team might go
for a fourth and two at the at their own
forty eight yard line, and one model says go for
it and one says punt. But for the most part
there's a lot of overlap. So I usually when I
was trying to communicate that information, I liked checking other
models to sort of confirm them in the sense that like, Okay,
(17:08):
this model says go for it, and this one does,
so it made me And usually the ones we would
go for were like a pretty clear analytics win as
opposed to some fringe ones like, for example, Dan Campbell
and he's I love Dan Campbell, he's the man like
he a couple of years ago he went for a
very controversial one against the forty nine ers in the playoffs.
They were leading by fourteen or something at the time,
(17:30):
and they did not get it.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
And then San Francis is this is.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
The game in Sanfrain, right that they love, yes, yes right, yes, yes,
yes yes Okay.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
So, like, for example, like the model that I typically
use was basically break even or even leaning potentially towards
kicking a field goal there, But there's some other models
that might be saying, you know, go for it. So
I get a little bit nervous when when there's not
a consensus on the on the models, because.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
They're on the side of caution. Right, yes, I mean
he could have kicked the field the goal to goal
to go up seventeen, I think.
Speaker 4 (18:00):
Right yes, And I always try to caution and say
he could have attempted the field goal versus kicked it,
because like if you assume that it went in, it
sort of messes with the logic. But like when you say,
but yes, when they could have attempted a field goal,
most likely it would have went in. It was probably
something like a seventy five plus percent proposition. But as
(18:22):
we see around the NFL, things are not guaranteed, like
we saw Baltimore and Pittsburgh at the end of the
end of the season last year, and.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Until it sort of happens, you never really know.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
So let me ask Ryan once this. Once that season
happens in Philly, I'm assuming you're a made man, everybody's like, damn,
this guy's the genius. But weirdly, there weren't a lot
of articles written about you. Would you consider yourself like
a secret weapon of sorts with the Eagles because again,
the public and the gambling public, which we care about, obviously,
they're in the dark abouttle. Nobody knew who you were.
(18:55):
I don't think at the time.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
Yeah, there was like tidbits here and there. But I
and I think this is no disrespect to some of
these organizations, but uh, there's a little bit of a
practice at times where teams will just block interviews, like hey,
the Wall Street Journal wants to talk to you, or
this last season, the New York Times wanted to interview
me or some on on some topic and the team
(19:19):
I worked for said no.
Speaker 3 (19:20):
And or Amazon wanted to interview me.
Speaker 4 (19:22):
At one point, you know, for one of the Thursday
night football things, and the team I worked for said no.
And it's it's almost like guarding your secrets type attitude.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
But I mean, did did you get pissed off at that?
Speaker 4 (19:34):
I think at times it was a bit frustrating, for sure.
And like at one point when I was with the Jaguars,
there was a the commanders, Dad Quinn put in a
request for me to they were looking to interview me
to when he first took over to potentially, you know,
be the headset guy for him, and the Jaguars blocked it,
(19:56):
and and I was like, you know, is this is
this like this is kind of lame, you know what
I mean, Like it's it's uh but.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
Just like just to check, the Jags at the time
were coached by Peterson, who kind of made you in Philly.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Right, Yeah, for sure.
Speaker 4 (20:09):
But I guess my point being is that these organizations
sort of exert their will to like they may limit
your opportunity to get exposure in the media, they may
limit your career opportunities. Like there's coaches that there's only
a certain promotions in the NFL that are are allowed
that the teams can't block, like you go from coordinator
to head coach, Like they obviously can't block something like that.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
Like like for example, uh.
Speaker 4 (20:35):
The Bucks obviously would have blocked Liam Cohne going from
from uh Tampa to Jacksonville, but they hadn't They had
no ability to do so.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
And they have that whole like dramas.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
And your position's kind of new right, like yes, Like
so there's really not a lot of presents. So after that,
were you just like dude, I'm out of here, I
gotta go.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Or were you were you on like.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
A one year contract or two or what? Would you
don't mind talking about that?
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Yeah, And I usually usually was doing two year contracts.
I sort of evolved towards preferring one years just because
of the flexibility factor. But at the same time, let's
give your example, like I signed a one year deal
with the Raiders, and and Pete was you know, as
I'm interviewing, he's telling me how he's got seventeenth straight
(21:22):
years with seven plus wins or so he had some
just unbelievable six like you really look at the full
length of his tenure, like to just forget the Raiders season,
like the.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
Incredible amounts of success.
Speaker 4 (21:33):
And so there's it's kind of like a leverage bet,
like in terms of like volatility, Like if you do
one year deals, like you can expose yourself to way
more upside, but at the same time, you expose yourself
to more risk. So a lot of these guys with
like established families and whatnot that are on the team side,
and like maybe a position coach or you know, as
(21:55):
director of scouting, like they're going to defer towards wanting
a two year deal just for like the families to build.
And you know, I mean look at these places, Like
some places are firing their coach every single year.
Speaker 3 (22:05):
It's tough. So but here's the other thing.
Speaker 2 (22:07):
You're you're a young guy, so obviously you know you
bounce around when you're young and single. But then you know,
you meet the lady, maybe she wants to have some kids.
Then you don't want to be You don't want to
be going to like Green Bay one year and the
next year year in Seattle.
Speaker 3 (22:19):
You don't want to be doing this.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
So it sounds like where do you see yourself fitting
in out? Do you want to be a guy with
the team, Do you want to have your own business?
I mean, you know, if we're being completely frank, so
I'm all in on Claude AI. I don't know how
much you're using AI and I want to ask you
about that. But like, Cowork is incredible, and I built
a World Cup gambling model that's knocking it out of
(22:41):
the park. And my next this is like a precursor
for NFL betting. And I'm like, why can't this do
it for me? So I'm it sounds like you're maybe
gonna be your own boss now going forward.
Speaker 4 (22:52):
Yes, And so I'm still sort of first of all,
I am interested in the whole world. Like to give
you an example. I I the time commitment in the
NFL is unbelievable, and to give.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
You in season out of season two in Sea, like.
Speaker 4 (23:14):
To give you an example out of season is much
more reasonable. And just about every team, the whole staff
is off right now until like training.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Camp, or maybe a week before training camp.
Speaker 4 (23:24):
But from last say July twentieth or so until the
end of like say like January fourth, I had like
I think three or four total days off, So it
was like seven days every single week. And those seven
days would be like you get in on Monday at
(23:44):
six point thirty in the morning and you're leaving at
nine thirty pm, and then you're doing the same on
Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday. And then we actually flew
on Fridays in Las Vegas just because of the long trips.
And Pete had this study that he thought there was
a relative advantage. Maybe that's something that your viewers would
find interesting, but he thought there was a relative advantage
(24:05):
for the long like say East Coast trips to fly
on Friday, which is very unconventional in terms of sort
of adapting to the jet lag. But he had a
he had an exceptional record in his career in Seattle
on for like, for example, East Coast one o'clock games
and so so, so he's like got this whole strategy
and like, I don't know if I buy this, and
(24:26):
then week one we go up and we beat the Patriots,
and I'm like, this guy's odd to stuff that like
that he's got.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
This figured out.
Speaker 4 (24:32):
Our team was not talented enough, and it kind of
it showed out over the time. But that massive commitment
with like the job uncertainty is as opposed to like
being in a scenario like this where I can make
my own hours and whatnot. I think, you know, I
see people like Pat McAfee signing sixty million dollar deals
like starting in kind of the media space, and I'm like,
(24:55):
sounds like like a little bit better quality of life
and like in the now. Obviously that's yes, now, that's
obviously so unrealistic. But my point being is that you know,
there's being in this space, like being in a world
where like you can monetize things like like social media
that's interested in me, and in the world of AI,
(25:17):
it's so much easier to kind of manage all those
different variables. And like I you know, there was an
article I think in The Athletic last year where they
were calling me the AI coordinator for.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
This Oh I didn't see that.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
Okay, they're calling me the AI coordinator for the Raiders.
And you know, Pete would ask me things. It would
be eight thirty eight in the in the morning and
we had a team meeting at eight forty five, and
he'd call me or come into my office and he's like,
I need this study done for the eight forty five
team meeting. It's so I'm like, all right, I got
by my l lam up and I'm turning the speed
(25:52):
on as fast as humanly possible. And we might have
some inaccuracies, but like that's the only way this is
ever getting done.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
On Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup
in the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports
Radio dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR
to listen live.
Speaker 4 (26:14):
One thing in regards to the betting markets are useful
if you're working on the team side, and I would
use information, for example, from the spread and incorporate that
into whatever model we were using. So to give you
an example, like we're playing the Patriots in the Super
Bowl and we have a book generated based on being
(26:37):
a few point underdog in that game, and so based
on that information, you know, we're going to go for
more fourth downs potentially because of that, because we're going
to take on more risk as opposed to if you're
the Rams and you're playing the Cardinals and your fourteen
point favorite. Realistically, if you have a fourth down model,
you should be significantly more conservative because you're managing in
(27:00):
terms of you know, being more conservative and by the
same idea, in games that we were favored, you know,
I would generally try to advocate for for for trying
to get more snaps in and playing a little bit
more up tempo just to sort of reduce variants as
opposed to in games that we were underdogs, I would suggest,
you know, slowing down a little bit. And it's it's
(27:21):
sort of like through the sixteen seed playing the one
seed in the NCAAA tournament. Like if both teams, you know,
are getting a ton of ton of possessions and shots
up like you, you don't have as much of a chance.
But if you can slow the game down and sort
of expose expose the team to some more variants where
like maybe you shoot much better on three point attempts
than they do, it can really kind of tilt things
(27:43):
in your favor. By another idea that this would come
up is like if you say you're playing a team
and you don't even know if their quarterback is going
to play, and the betting markets have priced in the
value of certain quarterbacks fairly accurately, so you know.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
Say we're playing I don't know.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
Just just as an example, say there's some uncertainty whether
Pat Mahomes plays Week one, and you're the team playing
against Pat Mahomes in that game. You might not know
until a couple hours before kickoff or game day who
is playing. But if you're generating, you know, books to
use in the game, you might have a book that
is for if Justin Fields plays and your team is
(28:27):
your team is a two point favorite versus if Patrick
Mahomes plays in your four and a half point underdog,
so you sort of have to price that in accordingly.
But the number one thing I would say about you know,
I lived in Vegas. I experienced the whole Vegas vibe.
It's a great time. Like eventually they will catch up
(28:49):
on like on so many of these. But that being said,
Ben Johnson is so shockingly good when it comes to
offensive scheme that you know, when we were I was
sort of leading the research for the Jaguars into head
coaching candidates, and you know, there was a little bit
(29:09):
of a narrative on Okay, was it Detroit's skiing, Like
was it Detroit's talent level? They had a great offensive line,
they have Junior Gibbs, they have you know, they have
all this talent. And I was in part citing the
gambling data of like how often they cover the spread,
how often they beat their team point totals, to show like,
(29:31):
even whatever the assigned expectations were for Ben Johnson's offenses,
they still just were so far beyond that. And I
think to this day his record when Ben Johnson calls games,
that team's record against the spread is very good.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
Like if you go back and includes.
Speaker 4 (29:50):
Dan Campbell period, and then I believe that they go
over their team's point total at a very high rate
as well, to the point where the market hasn't really
caught up yet.
Speaker 2 (30:00):
So that's an interesting one, Ryan, because we again we
had Adam on and he was saying, the biggest mispriced
aspect of the market this year is the ten new
head coaches and something like twenty one new coordinators who
are going to call plays. Like, for instance, Philadelphia has
a new OC. I know nothing about him. I mean,
(30:20):
I don't think he's ever called plays before. Baltimore is
the interesting one. Their new OC is a Ben Johnson guy,
and as a result they're well probably not just as
a result, but you know, Lamar Jackson's there. They have
I think the highest win total in the league. But
how is the market or the models of the casinos,
how are they coming up with? Wow, that offensive coordinator
(30:40):
who's never called plays before is going to be really
good at his job.
Speaker 4 (30:44):
I think there's this is a unique season with how
many new play callers there really is, and this at
this time. They'll get a beat on these offensive coordinators
quickly once the real game start. But I would imagine
that some of those lines and markets are a little
bit vulnerable right now. Like if you have a strong
grasp of how good the new offensive coordinator is for Baltimore,
(31:08):
Like that's sort of a mispriced opportunity, or if you
don't feel great about you know this team's that new
defensive coordinator that they hired, that could be something. But
over time, I think, you know, say you get to
week six or seven of the year, there's going to
be a closer sense of recognizing that. But Mike McDonald
(31:28):
is one where like his when he calls games like
the other team does not score.
Speaker 3 (31:34):
It gets it's going.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
But you go back to Baltimore and you look at Seattle,
it's really impressive what he's done. But I think when
you if you're trying to really identify the the top
end sort of coaches of this era, that looking at
the spreads and looking at the performance against that, because
to some degree it is really capturing expectations and if
(31:58):
you're consistently beating that, like, it represents something in my
view interesting.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
I guess to wrap up, you know, is there anything
you see coming in this season that you know, whether
it's strategy scheme that maybe emerged last season. The one
that I keep coming back to is the three tight ends.
McVeigh kind of went to that randomly. I think it
was the game against the Jags in London and nobody
it caught everybody by surprise, including the Jags or whoever
(32:25):
the opponent was, and then they started using that a
lot and it was highly effective.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
Yeah, that one is going to be a interesting dynamic.
I think it's it's almost amusing because mcveigh's entire career
has sort of been defined by being a leader in
eleven personnel with just one tight end on the field,
and in my view, some teams are going to overcorrect
there a little bit and try to copycat that. And
(32:51):
if you look on a macro level, thirteen personnel has
actually not been that effective for teams like league wide,
and so it may have been something specific to their team.
What the talent of those tight ends, Sean McVay scheming,
Matt Stafford and some of the throws that Stafford makes
are unbelievable. And so I think I could see a
(33:14):
scenario you see where everyone's talking week one about the
huge UPTIC and thirteen personnel, and then by week four
it's like fizzling out and people are like, oh, it's
that that was like a quick one, you know, Like
I because there also is sort of a limit there.
There's a finite number of talented, you know, tight ends
in the league, so most of these excess tight ends
are putting on the field are probably going to be
(33:35):
more blocking types. And you know, so there is some
considerations of does that limit your your past game accordingly?
But uh, I know every team in the league is
looking at what Mike McDonald's doing on defense and saying, like,
can we copycat some of this stuff?
Speaker 3 (33:51):
They can?
Speaker 4 (33:51):
We can we come up with solutions against against their defense?
Because they it's really impressive, you know what they did
to people. They they they really that this idea of
the too high defenses and they and and uh that
them and and Vic Fangio really the last two Super
Bowl winning decoordinators. They're living in these two high presentations
pre snap and then they're either staying in too high
(34:14):
or they're they're spinning down from two high to one high.
And that dynamic is really sort of putting a cap
on a lot of offenses. And these these offensive coaches
are kind of losing their mind a little bit because
their only answer is to either run the ball more
or sort of dink and dunk because they just it's
really hard to get the big plays. And you do
(34:35):
see an uptick in like the rushing efficient efficiency by
for some teams over these last couple of years, and
I think that could continue where you see teams really
trying to come up with schemes to sort of thump
the ball on these teams that want to play with
like a light box.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
But so it is it possible that the box appears
light but then it becomes heavy as soon as you
know the one of the safeties comes down and and
teams are ready for it. Is that is that it's it?
Speaker 4 (35:00):
They utilize a mixed strategy, so like basically whether it's
Mike McDonald or Fangio, like they're pre snap, it's looking
the same all the time.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
Post snap.
Speaker 4 (35:10):
Sometimes it stays too high, sometimes it's it spins down
and that safety comes down. They're doing different movements in
the box when it comes to like stunt usage or
blitzes or simulated pressures where like four guys are rushing,
but this guy's popping out and they're but the idea
is sort of muddying it up for the quarterback. The
disguising kind of aspect of it just from doing like
(35:32):
weekly game plan things. There's some quarterbacks that really don't
do well with the disguising. So like that's kind of
a and and now every team is getting access to
these different data sources where you can see something like that.
And then so if you think you're this quarterback is
a guy that maybe struggles with disguise, like you're going
to try to, you know, really try to throw them
(35:54):
some curve balls and see if you can, you know,
get an interception or make them make a wrong read
or whatnot. But the other the one that I think is,
I think there's a world that the the tush push
narrative comes back. And you know, there was a point
in the middle of the season last year where the
public consensus was, okay, this place, you know, it was
(36:14):
whatever it was, one or two votes from getting banned
last year. And then the Eagles had a much worse
offensive season this past year, and so they really just
weren't in that many toush push scenarios. Now early on
the year, there was like this spectacle when they played
the Chiefs. That's right, they had offensive linemen moving early
and it was, honestly, it was kind of embarrassing for
(36:36):
everybody involved.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
Just like how it's impossible.
Speaker 4 (36:38):
To officiate, and I just like when I say embarrassing,
like it didn't reflect well, I don't think on the
league in the sense that, like, you know, you show
the slow motion and it was so obvious that some
of these linemen were going early, and it just but
it really was a tough thing to officiate.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
But anyways, at that.
Speaker 4 (36:55):
Time, if you were to publicly pull people that I
know in the league, I would say ninety five percent
were like, we're banning this thing next year. But what
happened was Philly really was started struggling down the stretch.
You know, they just were not as good of an
offensive team, so they they had so few opportunities, and
then because they weren't like making a deep move into
(37:16):
the playoffs, no one was really talking about it. But
a couple of the other teams like Seattle and the
Chargers and Pittsford. There was a number of teams that
were putting a tight end in in the in and
just snapping it and doing the exact same touch bushes
and some of them were doing an excellent job with
it and having a lot of success. And like it was,
(37:37):
I'd imagine those teams continue doing it now. It didn't
it didn't come up in the Super Bowl, it didn't
impact the Super Bowl in any way. But Seattle had
been doing it really the whole season, and I could imagine, like, say,
if that game had been close and they you know,
had some critical fourth and a half yard yeah, and
they got it, that the debate would have sort of
been stirred up again.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
So do you think Sean Mannion will be doing it
a lot in Philly or yeah, that we go ahead.
Speaker 4 (38:01):
I have absolutely That is such a wildcard to me
because Jeff Staltlin left as the offensive line coach. Jeff
Stealton was such a big advocate of the quarterback sneaks
to the point where, you know, I worked with Staltland
for six years, and you know, the final few years
we worked together in Philadelphia, he was so fully bought
(38:22):
in on sneaking as much as possible that he didn't
even want to put any other plays on the short
yarters list, Like and he would debate with.
Speaker 3 (38:30):
The head coach. He's like, I don't want to.
Speaker 4 (38:31):
I'm not even wasting my time, Like this plays so
much better than everything else. Yeah, this is what we're doing,
and quite frankly, there's been there's over the last three
or four years. That's kind of the direction they've gone where,
you know, it's it's basically sneak almost.
Speaker 3 (38:44):
No matter what I do think, where did he go to? Sorry?
Speaker 4 (38:47):
He so Stetlan When when they moved on for Batulo
there was like some different debates on what his role
was going to be. He's decided that he's going to
set out like I actually know him personally, like he's
with his you know, he's spending time with his facely
and whatnot.
Speaker 3 (39:00):
But interesting, so.
Speaker 2 (39:02):
Is the new offensive line coach a tourch push guy
or No.
Speaker 3 (39:05):
I do not think he is.
Speaker 4 (39:07):
So it is a major question there whether between Manion
doesn't it doesn't seem to have much of a background
with it. The new offensive line coach doesn't. But obviously
Nick Sirianni has made two Super Bowls using the play,
so I would imagine they use it at least in
some capacity. Do they go all in on it again?
I don't know, I mean they There also was a
(39:27):
narrative that last year they maybe scaled it back a
little bit because some of the interior offensive linemen were
like really beat up and maybe that had something to
do with it.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
But maybe your theory about the tight ends doing the
touch push for other teams, maybe that catches steam.
Speaker 3 (39:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (39:42):
We uh, we were experimenting with Bowers doing it last
year and we would try it in practice because it
really wasn't Gino's style to be a quarterback sneak guy.
Like over I think over his entire career, you know,
he had maybe had like twenty three sneaks, so like
it just wasn't there's some of these guys were a
little bit less suited for it. And anyway we were,
(40:04):
you know, we're working with Gino on doing it. We
ended up I think we ran ten or so for
the season, But in the off season we were thinking like, well,
if we're going to line up like this and everyone
knows we're going to run it, we might as well,
you know, put a bigger body that could potentially be
like a little bit more dynamic player there. But one
consideration that people sort of underestimate is these guys don't
(40:25):
have any experience taking the snap or like doing a
cadence and things, so that there's other variables at play.
So we would be practicing it and we'd you know,
we'd muffed the snap, and we're thinking, like, is it
better to just leave the starting quarterback in or potentially
try your your tight end in the game, and there's
a snap issue and next thing you know, it's a
fumble or like a turnover on down. So you're kind
(40:47):
of balancing that. Now, Seattle was excellent. I think they
I want to say, Seattle maybe may have got every
single one last year. And what they would do is
they would just have Sam. They would they wouldn't take
the quarterback out, but they would just be basically stand
him like eight yards back and he was just standing
there and they would just kind of smash it forward
with with the tight end taking the snap. But I
(41:08):
think that strategy is a little bit safer. I personally
think if you were to ask me what's the best
way to kind of approach the quarterback sneak situation, I
would do what Buffalo does, which is they line up
in like real formations and then they just run sneaks.
So like you have to you have to respect that
they're going to run a real play and they occasionally
(41:28):
do run like outside runs or like a pass or whatnot.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
Well, yes, you know you could try that with Gino, right,
and he probably still would not get it because, like
you said, he doesn't like running.
Speaker 4 (41:40):
Yeah, it just it just didn't fit his Like I
don't know, it's just maybe his body type or just
you know, there's there's but anyway, it's uh, different guys
have had, you know, different skill sets in that sneak world.
I mean, obviously Tom Brady was the greatest ever there,
but the sneaks that Tom Brady were running were usually
conditional on there being like an open space to sneak
(42:02):
as opposed to like the current NFL era is the
best sneak guys are the guys that are sneaking in
like a mosh pit, where like there's nowhere to go
and you're just like battling through it with strength. But
it's totally different than what it used to be.
Speaker 2 (42:14):
Yeah, all right, Well, Ryan Paganetti, he is on social media.
You got to follow him. Obviously he's going to be
doing I would assume a lot of interviews now. I mean,
I don't know if we're the first to get you,
but hey man, thanks so much. You know, I've been
badgering him for a few years on social media and
I'm glad you were able to finally jump on Ryan
and hopefully we'll have you back during the season.
Speaker 3 (42:36):
Yeah, I really appreciate it. Thanks for having me
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up Firefan, It's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Boyer
for Friday, July the tenth. We are heading into a
exciting time, folks. The World Cup is winding down, NBA
Summer League is popping off, and we're starting just beginning
(00:31):
to dive into the NFL. Oh I love it. It's so fun,
very exciting time. Today's guest is a superstar. He's never
been on the pod before. I don't know if he's
done any podcasts before, so you know, on social media,
and this is dated back to the beginning of my
radio days. I would love guys who aren't out there
in the ether. I'd like to try to find guys
who hadn't really popped and give them a platform because
(00:54):
they got good quality stuff. And this gentleman I saw
on social media and I was string him for a
long time and he's like, yeah, I work for a
team I can't. I was like, oh, okay, So his
name is Ryan Paganetti and he is an analytics superstar.
And I know that analytics is a buzzy term right now,
especially in the NBA, but this dude is like real guys.
(01:16):
And when I say real, I mean he's like on
the headset with NFL coaches trying to get them to
go for two when they're down fourteen. And he's got
some good stories for you from Philadelphia, how he broke
into this industry, what he thinks about Mighty Ben Johnson,
(01:36):
some thoughts on the season, Mike McDonald McVeigh. I mean,
there's a lot of good stuff here. The turnof Pot
on the NFL two weeks ago was phenomenal, and Ryan
pretty much matches that, maybe exceeds it. I'm assuming Ryan's
gonna blow up after this pod comes out, not just
because of this, but the guy Sharp and he's gonna
be a lot of places. So that's a name you
(01:57):
definitely need to know. Before we get to Ryan. I'll
just do quickly two minutes on France to Morocco.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Zero.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
It wasn't particularly close France, you know, zero zero at
halftime after Bape was denied on the PK and then
the floodgates open and it was a Bape and de
Bellet back to back and France is stacked and loaded
and they win an advance easy cover for the model
on the under and on France. Now, today's game Spain
(02:24):
Belgium is a little tricky and the model only give
a lean. But obviously we're running hot, so I don't
mind playing the leen to Spain and the under again.
But interestingly, the market is kind of saying over, which
is odd because something's got to break here. Spain hasn't
give it up a goal. The Belgium offense is disjointed.
(02:46):
Has had moments against the US and Senegal, but otherwise
has been kind of sloppy and ugly. We shall see.
I think Spain wins this one and we get the
Spain France game. By the way, I know everybody loves France.
Spain beat them the last two meetings in good matches,
and yes, I'm babe played. The Spain team is ridiculously stacked.
(03:07):
We'll see if they get by Belgium. All right, without
further ado, here is our guest, the one and only
Ryan Paganetti.
Speaker 1 (03:14):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to
listen live. You know, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports
(03:34):
fans want, but for everything he doesn't, he knows the
guy who does.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into
Straight Fire a brand new guest. And oh boy, this
guy is spectacular. So the fun story is, I've tried
to get him on the podcast for years. I saw
some of his stuff on social media and it was like, oh,
that's certainly interesting. And every time he was locked up
(04:01):
by teams in the NFL. And so now he's not
employed in the NFL. Let's welcome in, Ryan Paganetti. Did
I say that right?
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Ryan? Yes? Correct, I appreciate you, thanks for having yea.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
He is a Dartmouth grad. He's cooked up some unbelievable
special sauce that got him hired. His NFL research is strategy.
Game management tendencies got him hired by the Eagles, Jaguars Raiders.
He was on the headset for that Eagles team that
won the Super Bowl. I mean, listen, Ryan, I don't
(04:35):
even know where to start. Let's start with you before
we get to the NFL and all the number of
stuff I'm most interested in your background. We have people
on they talk about like their parents, like how did
you get into something so niche as game management for
the NFL and numbers.
Speaker 4 (04:51):
So that whole kind of the analytics world in the
NFL has really exploded over the last ten years. And
when I when I was trying to get in, some
teams didn't even have departments.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
They might have had one or two guys.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
No jobs were ever really posted online, and so it
was one of those situations where networking and having connections
was like really valuable.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
And I grew up in New England.
Speaker 4 (05:18):
I part of my experience there is I went to
a ton of Patriots games.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
I was there for.
Speaker 4 (05:24):
You know, my first memories with New England were in
two thousand, so I basically witnessed the entire dynasty there
where they just crushed people and it. I definitely kind
of had a quantitative mindset. I wanted to play as
a player. I went to Dartmouth to play. I had
about three different medical reasons that that sort of slowed
me down there, but I wanted to sort of stay involved,
(05:46):
and you know, so I started trying to reach out
to teams. I realistically back then, like the probability there's
so many people Like if a team, for example, were
to put out, hey, we're putting out a coaching assistant
job for the Jets, They're going to get like thirty
five thousand applicants right now and then, and they'll get
people that that are like FBS offensive coordinators applying, or
(06:10):
or people with pH I used to get resume sent
to me of people with PhDs that we're just dying
to work for free, and they'll be like all work
is for free is and that there's just such massive
demand to work in the industry. So I was, I'm like, okay,
I went to going to a pretty good school, Like
I was somewhat optimistic about, you know, my resume. But
(06:31):
the way I sort of got my foot in the
door is that my older brother, his name is TJ.
He's actually now run game coordinator with the Saints. But
my older brother got his start. He went to University
of Oregon back when Chip Kelly got hired to be
the offensive coordinator at Oregon, and my older brother just
volunteered to work for Chip as an undergraduate student. So
(06:55):
that was when Chip, you know, kind he came from
un H and he sort of took college football by
store they had, you know that they're running Statue of
Liberty with Dennis Dixon and Chip took over as the
head coach two years later, and my brother was actually
the guy signaling in all the play when they were
going one hundred miles an hour. My brother was the
guy standing next to Chips signaling in all the plays,
(07:16):
which was like a really cool moment for my family.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
They ended up going to the National Championship, you know, just.
Speaker 4 (07:20):
Barely losing to Auburn, Yes, three point game, you know,
crazy to look back. But so when Chip got his
opportunity in the league, I was still in school. I
had met him a few different times, and he had
a willingness to just bring me in when I graduated.
So I was super grateful for that, And so I
(07:43):
came in for Chips last year in Philly. Season didn't
go well, and after that my attitude was had always
been unwilling to do whatever it takes to get to
work in the league. You know, when there's when there
was a head coach change, and in particular that head
coach sort of hand selected you. Things usually not not
great for you. But I was very grateful that Howie
(08:04):
Roseman was was open to keeping me around and letting
me approve myself, and I was my attitude was like, hey,
do you want me to do you want me to coach?
You have me to scout? Do you have me to
fill water bottles? Do you have to analyze data? Whatever
I gotta do. And I just I jokingly tell people
just I that that offseason they were sort of in
the world of potentially upgrading the quarterback. So I you know,
(08:27):
there was a day there where they said, you know,
we need somebody to go grab this player at the airport,
you know, in the Philly airport's like ten minutes away.
I'm like, okay, I'll do it, and I go grab
this team mini van and I go drive to the
airport and pick up Carson Wentz for his Top thirty visit,
and me and him were talking about North Dakota stuff.
I didn't really think, like, we're not going to take
this guy. And then sure enough, like you know, we
ended up drafting him and he was kind of a
(08:48):
core player there, and it was it was a super
cool experience. But I Doug was trying to sort of
model his operation similar to Andy Reid because that was
sort of his mentor and who he had worked with
for a long time. And so Andy had a guy
that was his statistical coordinator for his coaching staff. And
(09:10):
so when Doug took over, after like a few weeks
of getting to know him, you know, he basically offered
for me to sort of be his coaching analytics guy.
And I was really grateful for the opportunity. It sort
of worked out like perfectly. It was probably the optimal job.
If I if you told me when I was fifteen
years old what my dream job would be, I would
say probably say something like that, and to sort of
(09:32):
get my foot in the door, and and and for
that to actually happen, like I feel like I almost
kind of won the lottery. And that being said, my
attitude always was if you watch New England, watch some
of these teams in different sports, like watch watch the
team shooting three point attempts and in basketball, watching baseball,
(09:54):
what they're doing, Like there's there was a lot of
really significant edges that were not being taken advantage of
in the NFL, And you'd get this group of people
on the internet or doctorate type people who would always
point out, oh, team should go for more fourth downs,
but they should go for two point conversions, they should run,
they should do this or that, and the ninety nine
(10:15):
percent of coaches were like, these guys just don't get it.
They don't know the instincts, they don't know the gut.
And I was really grateful that Doug's attitude was if
it helps us, let's do it. And at times I
had to sort of tiptoe like and for example, you know,
I had you I had more pushback from assistant coaches
(10:36):
than I did from you know, other people in the
building or in like the public, where you might have
a sixty year old position coach who's he's never seen
a team that he's worked for go for a fourth
and one, you know, outside their own you know, outside
the forty yard line his entire career, and he's like,
that's not football. Or there was a time early in
(10:57):
the twenty seventeen season where I had met with Doug
in the offseason and we had agreed, like, Okay, we're
going to go for two if we score a touchdown
to go from fourteen to eight, we're going to go
for two. And that was an analytics friendly strategy. No
one had ever done.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
It, and you hold on, you sold him on that.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
And he and he he was one hundred percent on
board with doing it. And so this is this is
a week It was week two or three in our
Super Bowl season. So at the previous year were seven
and nine. The Philly fans hated Doug. They wanted to
get rid of them. We were like one in one
or whatever. And but I said it on the headset
because we were down fourteen to the Chiefs and we
were driving and I just brought it up. I'm like, hey, Doug,
(11:37):
this is that situation to go for two. And I
had assistance getting on there, like what are you talking about?
Like what you're you're looking at the rock chart. They're
freaking out in the middle of the game. And I'm
sort of flustered because I Doug had agreed to do
this like he was. He had endorsed that he had
saw the data and he was on board with it,
but these other parties had not. And so ultimately wet
(12:00):
She did score. It was kind of a meaningless point
at a point at the end of the game where
down eight and we kicked the extra point in part
because of these coaches speaking up no way, and the
day the day after the game, I said Doug, like,
if you want me to really, if you really want
to buy in on this stuff, like I need you
to trust me, and I need you to like sort
of communicate to the rest of the staff like that
(12:21):
this is what we're going to do, because like that
was so dysfunctional and whether it's wait.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Hold on, hold on, I'm looking at the box score,
so there was only eight seconds left, right, yes.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
But but basically what happens is like when that drive begins,
you need to communicate that information, like, Okay, in the
event we score on the drive, we don't want to
be wasting time like after a touchdown saying hy should
we should we go for it? You're like you need
to really make that decision well in advance, so whether
it's on a timeout on the drive or prior and.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
So like one of the things.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
So so you didn't bring this up after the fact
in front of the other coaches. You just brought it
up to Doug because you thought would you down?
Speaker 4 (12:58):
I thought I thought I was physically assaulted. At the
There was people so upset and they were so adamant
that I was reading the chart that I had wrong,
And meanwhile I'm scrambling like, you know, you're doing this
in an NFL game in front of I don't know
ten million people watching or and and and I'm trying
to manage that and communicate information.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
It's total chaos.
Speaker 4 (13:18):
And anyways, the next day he sort of conveyed to
the whole staff, He's like, look, I want to know
what analytics says on every single situation. That's what I
hired this person to do. Do not talk when it
comes to this stuff.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
WHOA.
Speaker 4 (13:30):
And when he did that, like, it was really kind
of pivotal moment, A pivotal moment for myself, and I
think it's really kind of a pivotal moment for the
league in terms of analytics users, because from that moment
on we started we were going for a lot of
fourth downs and it was we were I think we
ended up number one in the league in fourth down
attempts or whatever that season. But you know, I bring
(13:53):
up a controversial situation, Hey it's fourth and X and
anything two or less as a go for it, and
him giving me sort of the green light to communicate
that information. And then we also happened to convert a
number of fourth downs in a row, so it sort
of maybe maybe it looked a little bit better that
it sort of coincided there. And then you know, a
(14:14):
lot of people look back at that twenty seventeen season
where we ended up leading the league there in fourth
downs and we had the Philly Special, we had another
fourth down in the in the fourth quarter that we got,
and they sort of looked look at that as the
turning point for analytics buying in the league because there
was like an actual document and example of success.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
So I'm I'm excited about that. Like it was. It
was a really great time.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
My brother actually was still on the staff too, so
we kind of we both got to win win a
Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Together, which was sort of surreal.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
And from that moment on, things in the league have
really taken off with with with analytics usage and buy in,
whether it's whether it's for decisions in games or game planning,
or for the draft or for captus visions like it's
I would say almost every team has some kind of
(15:04):
data analysis going into most of their major decisions, and
you still get some teams that are a little bit
more stubborn and against doing it. But like if you're
not employing people to sort of study all these different
things like you're really far far behind at this point.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
So I looked it up. You guys, that's twenty six
on fourth sixty five percent. That's pretty amazing. Now, obviously
you're at the forefront of this, but I have to ask, like,
did you build your own model? Like this chart that
you keep referencing, was that yours? Is that proprietary or
is that like a widely known chart.
Speaker 4 (15:41):
So there's a number of different public models that are available,
Like you might see a team go for a fourth
down in week two, and some people actually have posted
like totally open source data where you can see what
their model says. But at the time there was some
public research into the top. We had internal fourth down
(16:02):
models that we also used, but just for a frame
of reference, Like I had a book of somewhere around
four hundred to five hundred thousand situations that I would follow,
and so essentially like what's the score differential, how much
time is remaining the what's the distance to go, what's
the field position, what's our timeouts, what's their timeouts? And
(16:24):
so really a ton of work went into sort of
building that book and finding all these sort of edge
cases and sort of selling the coach on some of
these obscure ones that maybe are are are something that
is a little bit unconventional, but that's sort of the process,
and I'd say most of the models generally agree. Sometimes
(16:45):
they deviate a little bit, like a team might go
for a fourth and two at the at their own
forty eight yard line, and one model says go for
it and one says punt. But for the most part
there's a lot of overlap. So I usually when I
was trying to communicate that information, I liked checking other
models to sort of confirm them in the sense that like, Okay,
(17:08):
this model says go for it, and this one does,
so it made me And usually the ones we would
go for were like a pretty clear analytics win as
opposed to some fringe ones like, for example, Dan Campbell
and he's I love Dan Campbell, he's the man like
he a couple of years ago he went for a
very controversial one against the forty nine ers in the playoffs.
They were leading by fourteen or something at the time,
(17:30):
and they did not get it.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
And then San Francis is this is.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
The game in Sanfrain, right that they love, yes, yes right, yes, yes,
yes yes Okay.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
So, like, for example, like the model that I typically
use was basically break even or even leaning potentially towards
kicking a field goal there, But there's some other models
that might be saying, you know, go for it. So
I get a little bit nervous when when there's not
a consensus on the on the models, because.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
They're on the side of caution. Right, yes, I mean
he could have kicked the field the goal to goal
to go up seventeen, I think.
Speaker 4 (18:00):
Right yes, And I always try to caution and say
he could have attempted the field goal versus kicked it,
because like if you assume that it went in, it
sort of messes with the logic. But like when you say,
but yes, when they could have attempted a field goal,
most likely it would have went in. It was probably
something like a seventy five plus percent proposition. But as
(18:22):
we see around the NFL, things are not guaranteed, like
we saw Baltimore and Pittsburgh at the end of the
end of the season last year, and.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Until it sort of happens, you never really know.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
So let me ask Ryan once this. Once that season
happens in Philly, I'm assuming you're a made man, everybody's like, damn,
this guy's the genius. But weirdly, there weren't a lot
of articles written about you. Would you consider yourself like
a secret weapon of sorts with the Eagles because again,
the public and the gambling public, which we care about, obviously,
they're in the dark abouttle. Nobody knew who you were.
(18:55):
I don't think at the time.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
Yeah, there was like tidbits here and there. But I
and I think this is no disrespect to some of
these organizations, but uh, there's a little bit of a
practice at times where teams will just block interviews, like hey,
the Wall Street Journal wants to talk to you, or
this last season, the New York Times wanted to interview
me or some on on some topic and the team
(19:19):
I worked for said no.
Speaker 3 (19:20):
And or Amazon wanted to interview me.
Speaker 4 (19:22):
At one point, you know, for one of the Thursday
night football things, and the team I worked for said no.
And it's it's almost like guarding your secrets type attitude.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
But I mean, did did you get pissed off at that?
Speaker 4 (19:34):
I think at times it was a bit frustrating, for sure.
And like at one point when I was with the Jaguars,
there was a the commanders, Dad Quinn put in a
request for me to they were looking to interview me
to when he first took over to potentially, you know,
be the headset guy for him, and the Jaguars blocked it,
(19:56):
and and I was like, you know, is this is
this like this is kind of lame, you know what
I mean, Like it's it's uh but.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
Just like just to check, the Jags at the time
were coached by Peterson, who kind of made you in Philly.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Right, Yeah, for sure.
Speaker 4 (20:09):
But I guess my point being is that these organizations
sort of exert their will to like they may limit
your opportunity to get exposure in the media, they may
limit your career opportunities. Like there's coaches that there's only
a certain promotions in the NFL that are are allowed
that the teams can't block, like you go from coordinator
to head coach, Like they obviously can't block something like that.
Speaker 3 (20:33):
Like like for example, uh.
Speaker 4 (20:35):
The Bucks obviously would have blocked Liam Cohne going from
from uh Tampa to Jacksonville, but they hadn't They had
no ability to do so.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
And they have that whole like dramas.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
And your position's kind of new right, like yes, Like
so there's really not a lot of presents. So after that,
were you just like dude, I'm out of here, I
gotta go.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Or were you were you on like.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
A one year contract or two or what? Would you
don't mind talking about that?
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Yeah, And I usually usually was doing two year contracts.
I sort of evolved towards preferring one years just because
of the flexibility factor. But at the same time, let's
give your example, like I signed a one year deal
with the Raiders, and and Pete was you know, as
I'm interviewing, he's telling me how he's got seventeenth straight
(21:22):
years with seven plus wins or so he had some
just unbelievable six like you really look at the full
length of his tenure, like to just forget the Raiders season,
like the.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
Incredible amounts of success.
Speaker 4 (21:33):
And so there's it's kind of like a leverage bet,
like in terms of like volatility, Like if you do
one year deals, like you can expose yourself to way
more upside, but at the same time, you expose yourself
to more risk. So a lot of these guys with
like established families and whatnot that are on the team side,
and like maybe a position coach or you know, as
(21:55):
director of scouting, like they're going to defer towards wanting
a two year deal just for like the families to build.
And you know, I mean look at these places, Like
some places are firing their coach every single year.
Speaker 3 (22:05):
It's tough. So but here's the other thing.
Speaker 2 (22:07):
You're you're a young guy, so obviously you know you
bounce around when you're young and single. But then you know,
you meet the lady, maybe she wants to have some kids.
Then you don't want to be You don't want to
be going to like Green Bay one year and the
next year year in Seattle.
Speaker 3 (22:19):
You don't want to be doing this.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
So it sounds like where do you see yourself fitting
in out? Do you want to be a guy with
the team, Do you want to have your own business?
I mean, you know, if we're being completely frank, so
I'm all in on Claude AI. I don't know how
much you're using AI and I want to ask you
about that. But like, Cowork is incredible, and I built
a World Cup gambling model that's knocking it out of
(22:41):
the park. And my next this is like a precursor
for NFL betting. And I'm like, why can't this do
it for me? So I'm it sounds like you're maybe
gonna be your own boss now going forward.
Speaker 4 (22:52):
Yes, And so I'm still sort of first of all,
I am interested in the whole world. Like to give
you an example. I I the time commitment in the
NFL is unbelievable, and to give.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
You in season out of season two in Sea, like.
Speaker 4 (23:14):
To give you an example out of season is much
more reasonable. And just about every team, the whole staff
is off right now until like training.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Camp, or maybe a week before training camp.
Speaker 4 (23:24):
But from last say July twentieth or so until the
end of like say like January fourth, I had like
I think three or four total days off, So it
was like seven days every single week. And those seven
days would be like you get in on Monday at
(23:44):
six point thirty in the morning and you're leaving at
nine thirty pm, and then you're doing the same on
Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday. And then we actually flew
on Fridays in Las Vegas just because of the long trips.
And Pete had this study that he thought there was
a relative advantage. Maybe that's something that your viewers would
find interesting, but he thought there was a relative advantage
(24:05):
for the long like say East Coast trips to fly
on Friday, which is very unconventional in terms of sort
of adapting to the jet lag. But he had a
he had an exceptional record in his career in Seattle
on for like, for example, East Coast one o'clock games
and so so, so he's like got this whole strategy
and like, I don't know if I buy this, and
(24:26):
then week one we go up and we beat the Patriots,
and I'm like, this guy's odd to stuff that like
that he's got.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
This figured out.
Speaker 4 (24:32):
Our team was not talented enough, and it kind of
it showed out over the time. But that massive commitment
with like the job uncertainty is as opposed to like
being in a scenario like this where I can make
my own hours and whatnot. I think, you know, I
see people like Pat McAfee signing sixty million dollar deals
like starting in kind of the media space, and I'm like,
(24:55):
sounds like like a little bit better quality of life
and like in the now. Obviously that's yes, now, that's
obviously so unrealistic. But my point being is that you know,
there's being in this space, like being in a world
where like you can monetize things like like social media
that's interested in me, and in the world of AI,
(25:17):
it's so much easier to kind of manage all those
different variables. And like I you know, there was an
article I think in The Athletic last year where they
were calling me the AI coordinator for.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
This Oh I didn't see that.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
Okay, they're calling me the AI coordinator for the Raiders.
And you know, Pete would ask me things. It would
be eight thirty eight in the in the morning and
we had a team meeting at eight forty five, and
he'd call me or come into my office and he's like,
I need this study done for the eight forty five
team meeting. It's so I'm like, all right, I got
by my l lam up and I'm turning the speed
(25:52):
on as fast as humanly possible. And we might have
some inaccuracies, but like that's the only way this is
ever getting done.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
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Speaker 4 (26:14):
One thing in regards to the betting markets are useful
if you're working on the team side, and I would
use information, for example, from the spread and incorporate that
into whatever model we were using. So to give you
an example, like we're playing the Patriots in the Super
Bowl and we have a book generated based on being
(26:37):
a few point underdog in that game, and so based
on that information, you know, we're going to go for
more fourth downs potentially because of that, because we're going
to take on more risk as opposed to if you're
the Rams and you're playing the Cardinals and your fourteen
point favorite. Realistically, if you have a fourth down model,
you should be significantly more conservative because you're managing in
(27:00):
terms of you know, being more conservative and by the
same idea, in games that we were favored, you know,
I would generally try to advocate for for for trying
to get more snaps in and playing a little bit
more up tempo just to sort of reduce variants as
opposed to in games that we were underdogs, I would suggest,
you know, slowing down a little bit. And it's it's
(27:21):
sort of like through the sixteen seed playing the one
seed in the NCAAA tournament. Like if both teams, you know,
are getting a ton of ton of possessions and shots
up like you, you don't have as much of a chance.
But if you can slow the game down and sort
of expose expose the team to some more variants where
like maybe you shoot much better on three point attempts
than they do, it can really kind of tilt things
(27:43):
in your favor. By another idea that this would come
up is like if you say you're playing a team
and you don't even know if their quarterback is going
to play, and the betting markets have priced in the
value of certain quarterbacks fairly accurately, so you know.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
Say we're playing I don't know.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
Just just as an example, say there's some uncertainty whether
Pat Mahomes plays Week one, and you're the team playing
against Pat Mahomes in that game. You might not know
until a couple hours before kickoff or game day who
is playing. But if you're generating, you know, books to
use in the game, you might have a book that
is for if Justin Fields plays and your team is
(28:27):
your team is a two point favorite versus if Patrick
Mahomes plays in your four and a half point underdog,
so you sort of have to price that in accordingly.
But the number one thing I would say about you know,
I lived in Vegas. I experienced the whole Vegas vibe.
It's a great time. Like eventually they will catch up
(28:49):
on like on so many of these. But that being said,
Ben Johnson is so shockingly good when it comes to
offensive scheme that you know, when we were I was
sort of leading the research for the Jaguars into head
coaching candidates, and you know, there was a little bit
(29:09):
of a narrative on Okay, was it Detroit's skiing, Like
was it Detroit's talent level? They had a great offensive line,
they have Junior Gibbs, they have you know, they have
all this talent. And I was in part citing the
gambling data of like how often they cover the spread,
how often they beat their team point totals, to show like,
(29:31):
even whatever the assigned expectations were for Ben Johnson's offenses,
they still just were so far beyond that. And I
think to this day his record when Ben Johnson calls games,
that team's record against the spread is very good.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
Like if you go back and includes.
Speaker 4 (29:50):
Dan Campbell period, and then I believe that they go
over their team's point total at a very high rate
as well, to the point where the market hasn't really
caught up yet.
Speaker 2 (30:00):
So that's an interesting one, Ryan, because we again we
had Adam on and he was saying, the biggest mispriced
aspect of the market this year is the ten new
head coaches and something like twenty one new coordinators who
are going to call plays. Like, for instance, Philadelphia has
a new OC. I know nothing about him. I mean,
(30:20):
I don't think he's ever called plays before. Baltimore is
the interesting one. Their new OC is a Ben Johnson guy,
and as a result they're well probably not just as
a result, but you know, Lamar Jackson's there. They have
I think the highest win total in the league. But
how is the market or the models of the casinos,
how are they coming up with? Wow, that offensive coordinator
(30:40):
who's never called plays before is going to be really
good at his job.
Speaker 4 (30:44):
I think there's this is a unique season with how
many new play callers there really is, and this at
this time. They'll get a beat on these offensive coordinators
quickly once the real game start. But I would imagine
that some of those lines and markets are a little
bit vulnerable right now. Like if you have a strong
grasp of how good the new offensive coordinator is for Baltimore,
(31:08):
Like that's sort of a mispriced opportunity, or if you
don't feel great about you know this team's that new
defensive coordinator that they hired, that could be something. But
over time, I think, you know, say you get to
week six or seven of the year, there's going to
be a closer sense of recognizing that. But Mike McDonald
(31:28):
is one where like his when he calls games like
the other team does not score.
Speaker 3 (31:34):
It gets it's going.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
But you go back to Baltimore and you look at Seattle,
it's really impressive what he's done. But I think when
you if you're trying to really identify the the top
end sort of coaches of this era, that looking at
the spreads and looking at the performance against that, because
to some degree it is really capturing expectations and if
(31:58):
you're consistently beating that, like, it represents something in my
view interesting.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
I guess to wrap up, you know, is there anything
you see coming in this season that you know, whether
it's strategy scheme that maybe emerged last season. The one
that I keep coming back to is the three tight ends.
McVeigh kind of went to that randomly. I think it
was the game against the Jags in London and nobody
it caught everybody by surprise, including the Jags or whoever
(32:25):
the opponent was, and then they started using that a
lot and it was highly effective.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
Yeah, that one is going to be a interesting dynamic.
I think it's it's almost amusing because mcveigh's entire career
has sort of been defined by being a leader in
eleven personnel with just one tight end on the field,
and in my view, some teams are going to overcorrect
there a little bit and try to copycat that. And
(32:51):
if you look on a macro level, thirteen personnel has
actually not been that effective for teams like league wide,
and so it may have been something specific to their team.
What the talent of those tight ends, Sean McVay scheming,
Matt Stafford and some of the throws that Stafford makes
are unbelievable. And so I think I could see a
(33:14):
scenario you see where everyone's talking week one about the
huge UPTIC and thirteen personnel, and then by week four
it's like fizzling out and people are like, oh, it's
that that was like a quick one, you know, Like
I because there also is sort of a limit there.
There's a finite number of talented, you know, tight ends
in the league, so most of these excess tight ends
are putting on the field are probably going to be
(33:35):
more blocking types. And you know, so there is some
considerations of does that limit your your past game accordingly?
But uh, I know every team in the league is
looking at what Mike McDonald's doing on defense and saying, like,
can we copycat some of this stuff?
Speaker 3 (33:51):
They can?
Speaker 4 (33:51):
We can we come up with solutions against against their defense?
Because they it's really impressive, you know what they did
to people. They they they really that this idea of
the too high defenses and they and and uh that
them and and Vic Fangio really the last two Super
Bowl winning decoordinators. They're living in these two high presentations
pre snap and then they're either staying in too high
(34:14):
or they're they're spinning down from two high to one high.
And that dynamic is really sort of putting a cap
on a lot of offenses. And these these offensive coaches
are kind of losing their mind a little bit because
their only answer is to either run the ball more
or sort of dink and dunk because they just it's
really hard to get the big plays. And you do
(34:35):
see an uptick in like the rushing efficient efficiency by
for some teams over these last couple of years, and
I think that could continue where you see teams really
trying to come up with schemes to sort of thump
the ball on these teams that want to play with
like a light box.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
But so it is it possible that the box appears
light but then it becomes heavy as soon as you
know the one of the safeties comes down and and
teams are ready for it. Is that is that it's it?
Speaker 4 (35:00):
They utilize a mixed strategy, so like basically whether it's
Mike McDonald or Fangio, like they're pre snap, it's looking
the same all the time.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
Post snap.
Speaker 4 (35:10):
Sometimes it stays too high, sometimes it's it spins down
and that safety comes down. They're doing different movements in
the box when it comes to like stunt usage or
blitzes or simulated pressures where like four guys are rushing,
but this guy's popping out and they're but the idea
is sort of muddying it up for the quarterback. The
disguising kind of aspect of it just from doing like
(35:32):
weekly game plan things. There's some quarterbacks that really don't
do well with the disguising. So like that's kind of
a and and now every team is getting access to
these different data sources where you can see something like that.
And then so if you think you're this quarterback is
a guy that maybe struggles with disguise, like you're going
to try to, you know, really try to throw them
(35:54):
some curve balls and see if you can, you know,
get an interception or make them make a wrong read
or whatnot. But the other the one that I think is,
I think there's a world that the the tush push
narrative comes back. And you know, there was a point
in the middle of the season last year where the
public consensus was, okay, this place, you know, it was
(36:14):
whatever it was, one or two votes from getting banned
last year. And then the Eagles had a much worse
offensive season this past year, and so they really just
weren't in that many toush push scenarios. Now early on
the year, there was like this spectacle when they played
the Chiefs. That's right, they had offensive linemen moving early
and it was, honestly, it was kind of embarrassing for
(36:36):
everybody involved.
Speaker 3 (36:37):
Just like how it's impossible.
Speaker 4 (36:38):
To officiate, and I just like when I say embarrassing,
like it didn't reflect well, I don't think on the
league in the sense that, like, you know, you show
the slow motion and it was so obvious that some
of these linemen were going early, and it just but
it really was a tough thing to officiate.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
But anyways, at that.
Speaker 4 (36:55):
Time, if you were to publicly pull people that I
know in the league, I would say ninety five percent
were like, we're banning this thing next year. But what
happened was Philly really was started struggling down the stretch.
You know, they just were not as good of an
offensive team, so they they had so few opportunities, and
then because they weren't like making a deep move into
(37:16):
the playoffs, no one was really talking about it. But
a couple of the other teams like Seattle and the
Chargers and Pittsford. There was a number of teams that
were putting a tight end in in the in and
just snapping it and doing the exact same touch bushes
and some of them were doing an excellent job with
it and having a lot of success. And like it was,
(37:37):
I'd imagine those teams continue doing it now. It didn't
it didn't come up in the Super Bowl, it didn't
impact the Super Bowl in any way. But Seattle had
been doing it really the whole season, and I could imagine, like, say,
if that game had been close and they you know,
had some critical fourth and a half yard yeah, and
they got it, that the debate would have sort of
been stirred up again.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
So do you think Sean Mannion will be doing it
a lot in Philly or yeah, that we go ahead.
Speaker 4 (38:01):
I have absolutely That is such a wildcard to me
because Jeff Staltlin left as the offensive line coach. Jeff
Stealton was such a big advocate of the quarterback sneaks
to the point where, you know, I worked with Staltland
for six years, and you know, the final few years
we worked together in Philadelphia, he was so fully bought
(38:22):
in on sneaking as much as possible that he didn't
even want to put any other plays on the short
yarters list, Like and he would debate with.
Speaker 3 (38:30):
The head coach. He's like, I don't want to.
Speaker 4 (38:31):
I'm not even wasting my time, Like this plays so
much better than everything else. Yeah, this is what we're doing,
and quite frankly, there's been there's over the last three
or four years. That's kind of the direction they've gone where,
you know, it's it's basically sneak almost.
Speaker 3 (38:44):
No matter what I do think, where did he go to? Sorry?
Speaker 4 (38:47):
He so Stetlan When when they moved on for Batulo
there was like some different debates on what his role
was going to be. He's decided that he's going to
set out like I actually know him personally, like he's
with his you know, he's spending time with his facely
and whatnot.
Speaker 3 (39:00):
But interesting, so.
Speaker 2 (39:02):
Is the new offensive line coach a tourch push guy
or No.
Speaker 3 (39:05):
I do not think he is.
Speaker 4 (39:07):
So it is a major question there whether between Manion
doesn't it doesn't seem to have much of a background
with it. The new offensive line coach doesn't. But obviously
Nick Sirianni has made two Super Bowls using the play,
so I would imagine they use it at least in
some capacity. Do they go all in on it again?
I don't know, I mean they There also was a
(39:27):
narrative that last year they maybe scaled it back a
little bit because some of the interior offensive linemen were
like really beat up and maybe that had something to
do with it.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
But maybe your theory about the tight ends doing the
touch push for other teams, maybe that catches steam.
Speaker 3 (39:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (39:42):
We uh, we were experimenting with Bowers doing it last
year and we would try it in practice because it
really wasn't Gino's style to be a quarterback sneak guy.
Like over I think over his entire career, you know,
he had maybe had like twenty three sneaks, so like
it just wasn't there's some of these guys were a
little bit less suited for it. And anyway we were,
(40:04):
you know, we're working with Gino on doing it. We
ended up I think we ran ten or so for
the season, But in the off season we were thinking like, well,
if we're going to line up like this and everyone
knows we're going to run it, we might as well,
you know, put a bigger body that could potentially be
like a little bit more dynamic player there. But one
consideration that people sort of underestimate is these guys don't
(40:25):
have any experience taking the snap or like doing a
cadence and things, so that there's other variables at play.
So we would be practicing it and we'd you know,
we'd muffed the snap, and we're thinking, like, is it
better to just leave the starting quarterback in or potentially
try your your tight end in the game, and there's
a snap issue and next thing you know, it's a
fumble or like a turnover on down. So you're kind
(40:47):
of balancing that. Now, Seattle was excellent. I think they
I want to say, Seattle maybe may have got every
single one last year. And what they would do is
they would just have Sam. They would they wouldn't take
the quarterback out, but they would just be basically stand
him like eight yards back and he was just standing
there and they would just kind of smash it forward
with with the tight end taking the snap. But I
(41:08):
think that strategy is a little bit safer. I personally
think if you were to ask me what's the best
way to kind of approach the quarterback sneak situation, I
would do what Buffalo does, which is they line up
in like real formations and then they just run sneaks.
So like you have to you have to respect that
they're going to run a real play and they occasionally
(41:28):
do run like outside runs or like a pass or whatnot.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
Well, yes, you know you could try that with Gino, right,
and he probably still would not get it because, like
you said, he doesn't like running.
Speaker 4 (41:40):
Yeah, it just it just didn't fit his Like I
don't know, it's just maybe his body type or just
you know, there's there's but anyway, it's uh, different guys
have had, you know, different skill sets in that sneak world.
I mean, obviously Tom Brady was the greatest ever there,
but the sneaks that Tom Brady were running were usually
conditional on there being like an open space to sneak
(42:02):
as opposed to like the current NFL era is the
best sneak guys are the guys that are sneaking in
like a mosh pit, where like there's nowhere to go
and you're just like battling through it with strength. But
it's totally different than what it used to be.
Speaker 2 (42:14):
Yeah, all right, Well, Ryan Paganetti, he is on social media.
You got to follow him. Obviously he's going to be
doing I would assume a lot of interviews now. I mean,
I don't know if we're the first to get you,
but hey man, thanks so much. You know, I've been
badgering him for a few years on social media and
I'm glad you were able to finally jump on Ryan
and hopefully we'll have you back during the season.
Speaker 3 (42:36):
Yeah, I really appreciate it. Thanks for having me
Host
Jason McIntyre
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