June 26, 2026 • 47 mins
On today’s episode, Jason is joined by professional sports bettor Adam Chernoff. During the conversation, Chernoff discusses why he's picking the Los Angeles Chargers to win the Super Bowl, the mounting pressure on Josh Allen and the new coaching staff in Buffalo, why he's more bullish on Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears than the rest of the market seems to be, the likelihood that the Green Bay Packers move on from Matt LaFleur after the season, why he's expecting a bounce back year for Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders, the hidden ways bettors can earn money by focusing on their favorite teams, and much more!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up
Straight Fire?
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Hey, it's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Boyer or Friday, June
the twenty sixth, have an amazing podcast for you today.
You're gonna absolutely love it. Adam Chernoff is breaking his
long silence, great NFL gambler. He kind of vanished for
(00:32):
about a year, didn't do any podcasts. This is his
return to podcasting. I'm honored that he decided to jump
on it with me. So we'll dive right into Adam
Churnoff just quickly. I'll do ninety seconds on USA Turkey A.
I know a lot of people have hot takes and
very very strong opinions on what went down, but I
will just preface this with we started one guy, Wester McKinney,
(00:55):
who started the other two games. I'm not going to
react at all when that's the kind of situation the
US was up against. It was almost all reserves, the
defensive line was leaky help badly in the first half.
We get a goal back from Burhalters to start the
second half, and then we bring on Polisic and largely
dominated the next twenty five minutes, and then of course
(01:19):
they get a goal in like the ninety seventh minute,
everybody was anna borrow some bodies. Everybody's like, why haven't
they blown the whistle? Why haven't they blown the whistle?
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Oooh goal?
Speaker 2 (01:30):
It was crazy. So Turkey A gets the three two win.
I don't read much into it. It was nice to
see Polisic back and healthy. I think that's probably the
biggest takeaway from this game that Polistic looked fine and frankly,
you know, even my dad's texting me, oh, come on,
we look terrible. What is this? Turkey A couldn't get
a goal for two games and they score. We had
backups in okay, And if you guys want to be real,
(01:52):
I'm gonna go ahead and use this as a positive.
We lost. Our team's gonna come out angry and fired
up because we did put in dest and some other
starters there at the end Tillman. So it was like,
if anything, we can use this as motivation. Guys, we're
not bulletproof, We're not the perfect team. We looked awesome
in the first two games. The backups didn't look great.
We got work to do, and then they come out
(02:13):
and smoke Bosnia. So I think let's be positive here.
You can overreact if you want. I'm not going to
all right without further ado. Let's get to him gambling guru,
Adam Chernoff.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
You know a guy Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
I know what sports fans wants, but for.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Let's welcome back to straight Fire. A guy who hasn't
done this podcast in a minute. He hasn't done any
podcasts in fourteen months. The man of mystery, Adam Chernoff,
gambling savant, gambling legend.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
I don't like savant. Let's pull that out of that. Okay,
let's keep going.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
We'll just go with Adam churn Off gambling guru. But
it's he's been a man of mystery. He's tough to
track down. I've been beating this guy down. I've been
following his weightlifting exploits on Instagram. Adam, You're a beast now,
Holy cow.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
There's been some life changes, to put it lightly, but
I'm feeling good. Doing well. Last year was very very good.
We had a if you remember an interview last April
that was a lot of fun. Have been doing this
now for about five or six years. Some happy to
be back and happy to be back doing media. It's
been a long time, so hopefully I'm not too rusty.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
He had to take a hiatus. I don't know if
you'll want to get into it, but now he's like
a powerlifter, he's a golfer. I mean, before we get
into the gambling. Just in terms of life changes, Adam,
would you call this a midlife crisis, a midlife awakening?
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Is there a midlife crisis happened at age thirty three?
Age three four? Maybe? I don't know.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
I might have seventy, but that's a past, yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
The honest truth. So for three years, as you know,
was betting professionally with a big betting group out of California.
And when you're doing that every day for the better
part of eight nine months a year, takes a bit
of a toll mentally physically, and so I was in
pretty rough shape. The scale was a big number, and
so it was a good switch back. I've been putting
(04:23):
in some work the last eight or nine months and
getting healthier and getting things sorted out, so in a
really really good spot now, had a lot of fun
those years and now it's onto some new things. So
still betting the NFL heavily, but the college basketball Daily Grind,
the off season CFL Grind and UFL Grind and everything
(04:46):
that came with that no longer, so a little bit
easier going lifestyle.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Now, real quick, are you doing any World Cup betting?
Because I'm not saying I've been on a generational heater, but.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Oh baby, you can't teach generational heater.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
That's just kind of a joke amongst some buddies I
text with. But I'm just first of all World Cup,
your quick thoughts.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
It's the one time every four years that my wife
watches sports, and so she's Colombian, so we spent a
lot of our winters and have been there for a
few years as well in the past, so directly tied
to that team. So I am Colombia to win. And
Lucho goalscorer every single match as long as it'll go.
And so one for one last week, we'll see coming
(05:30):
up against the Congo if it can go too for two,
but he looks damn good and hopefully they make a
deep run for entertainment, but nothing serious betting wise. Yeah,
no generational heater.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
For my no jet.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Well, I mean it's more of like, Okay, so you know,
obviously the AI revolution is happening, and I dove into
Claude a little bit, and I do the co work
and I just decided, you know, my goal this summer
is I'm gonna build a model for the World Cup.
I'm gonna build a model for NFL, and I'm gonna
see what I can do with it. And the model
had a couple misses early, but then it got pretty high,
(06:05):
and I'm just I don't know if this will translate
to the NFL, but I am curious. How much are
you using AI for your analysis, whether it's Google, Gemini,
I'm off Chat, GPT, but I find Claude pretty incredible.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
I didn't know that almost took a weird turn from
World Cup into AI. So I'm glad we went back
to this one. It's a good question. I would say
two years ago within the betting group really started implementing it.
Notebook LM, which is a Google product, is really really
good because it doesn't take outside research and it's directly
(06:38):
tied into YouTube, So for coach press conferences at scale
player interviews, pulling out quotes, sort of putting a bunch
of different previews all together, and being able to search
within it has been super valuable from a time saving perspective.
In terms of other usages like coordinates being input for
(07:02):
weather to get instead of saying, okay, I have to
go through sixteen different or fourteen different stadiums depending on
the week with dome games and pull out all the weather.
Just getting live weather right away, that's been really useful.
Looking at things like key numbers changes and putting together
a bunch of stats and box scores very quickly. That's
(07:23):
been very useful too. So I haven't got to the
point it sounds like where you're predicting games and making
money from it, but in terms of saving time, I've
probably freed up twelve ish hours a week from within
like a full NFL betting week of just like not
having the watch like coaches go on for twelve fifteen
(07:48):
minutes saying nothing to find out one quote, you can
get that right away. So that's been very useful for that.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
Wow, that's pretty interesting. Obviously we're still four months out
from the NFL and it's too excited to get or
you know, pumped up about some of these over unders
and totals and stuff. But I'm just curious, have you
seen anything in this off season overarching that you think
kind of as a big macro trend heading forward. Whether
it's some of the stuff that they was doing last
(08:13):
year with the three tight end sets. It seems like
there was a lot of defensive movement, some interesting coordinator hires,
but anything overall big picture that jumps out when it
comes to the NFL.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Okay, a couple things, big pictures. How much stock do
you put in last season? I feel like every week
Whenther the Bear is going to fall off with all
of the luck. What happened to the Commanders? Are the
Patriots for real? Or is this a really bad schedule?
Is Donald for real? Is this team back? Are the
Broncos for real? With Nicks? And where does this go?
(08:46):
There was so much doubt around so many teams, and
there were also a lot of teams that fell off
from the year prior going into that year. So how
do you think about Detroit going into this year? How
do you think about Washington going into this year? How
do you think about Chicago coming into this year. That's
kind of Number one is how much stock you putting
in last season and where the things bounce back. Another
(09:09):
thing that really stands out, like you mentioned the three
tight ends, is that going to be copied? Does that
slow down games? Does that change pace? There's a lot
of undercenter usage with play action being discussed and talked
about which quarterbacks fit that well? Is that going to
benefit someone like AJ Brown in New England with Drake
(09:30):
May who's very good at that matching receiver changes like that?
There's I think twenty one new play callers, coordinators, ten
new head coaches. How much does that change? Have there
been too much buy into the youth movement across the
league with some inexperienced coaches. Another one I would throw
(09:50):
out at you is something that I've really pushed in
a lot of media and things that I've done, and
something I believe in is the these guys that failed
as head coaches that were really good coordinators that get
to go back to being coordinators. I think is a
really really interesting topic. My stance is let great coordinators
(10:13):
stay great coordinators, especially in modern NFL, and we're seeing
so many early promotions. But you have now guy like
McDaniel going back being an OC. I love the interviews
so far. You have a guy like Dave All going
back to be an OC. Like think about those Buffalo offenses.
Those were amazing. So that's another fun one. So lots
(10:35):
from just the high level subjective stance this season. That's
really fun to talk about.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
So the team that jumps out that the biggest question
mark to me is the Baltimore Ravens, and they have
the highest wind total that I've seen, eleven and a half.
Yet they have a first time head coach in Minter,
a first time play caller in Decklan Doyle, and a
quarterback coming off an injury ish season who still doesn't
have the contract he wants. I didn't see any grades
(11:00):
on offense. I think they lost two tight ends kept
a starter. I don't get it at them eleven and
a half to schedule. I'm missing something in this, But
I don't know. Are the Ravens on your radar at all?
Were you surprised by eleven and a half?
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Not surprised by it. I'm not going to a spot
where I'm going over. I was talking with someone from
another group and they were just dead adamant that they're
going to win that division. I like it from the
aspect of you have a refresh for a culture that
was strong but had become a bit stale, especially in
(11:36):
bigger games. Just these weird collapses season after season that
were so costly. Maybe that gets a bit of a
refresh now with the coaching staff coming in and a
new look that's going to save them from these games
where they fall off. I think the offense is still
going to be very explosive. I like Mintor coming in
and what he brings to the defense and how that
can look. I just have a hard time buying into
(12:00):
any of the AFC North teams over the course of
the season running out to put up that kind of
win total when there's some level of questions within the team.
It's just not a division much like the NFC North
on the other side that I'm just super excited to
lay that big of a number and go over. So
I get why it's there, just because of all the
(12:21):
talent in the upside, But yeah, you're not getting me
on the over Jason, all.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Right, So what teams do jump out to you, whether
over or under? Everybody what loves this, Rams, Miles Garrett. Yeah,
but I'll let you go. I'll let you cook on that.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
I've really in the last like three to four weeks,
started going into previews and forming opinions on teams, and
like you said, the Rams are the consensus Super Bowl
team in the NFC. Like every preview, I'm breeding rams
rams rams rams on. On the other side, it's the Bengals
again from that AFC division of hell. On that side.
(12:59):
For me, Chargers win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Bye she wait a wit waitit.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
This is justin held jump. I texted you when you
forgot my email after all these years and said I'm
coming in with opinions and I'm not going to hold
back because it's been a long hiatus. Chargers.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
I mean, I like.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Them, but oh my gosh, this probably goes to Mike McDaniel,
Like you said, coordinator goes to Miami, who was a
good coach, good head coach, maybe not a great head coach,
got to the playoffs twice, and now he goes back
to being a coordinator. Interesting.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
I like it. I haven't seen a lot of talk
about it, which quietly makes me like it a little
bit more. I think Harbaugh has proven back to back
double digit wins. They haven't got the playoff win, but
both of these years he has been there. Hell of
a coach. It's been offensive line injury after offensive line
injury after offensive line injury, Herbert dealing with an injury,
(13:51):
these old wide receivers breaking down, and still they're getting
double digit wins getting to the playoffs. They've just been
a team that's broken down. Now you have an offensive
coordinator who has been praised for having some of the
most creative offenses in the last six or seven years
in the NFL, putting up crazy numbers. Love what he's
(14:12):
doing on field, how he's interacting with players. I love
what he brings to the team. But hey invested so
much in the offensive line. And last year when Alton
Slater were both healthy and this team could operate as
they wanted, oh my god, they looked so good. And
so I'm not a believer as well rounded as Denver
(14:34):
is at carrying over what they did last year into
this year. I have questions there. I have a lot
of questions about the turnover and KC on both sides
of the ball. And I look at la as this
team that's been right there. The last couple of years
with so many issues that now has just depth to
where they've been hurt the most. And a QB and
(14:55):
Herbert I think wins the MVP and a team that
I think has a monster season. So to me, the
Chargers are the breakout team in the AFC. There's more
on both sides, but that's that's the adamant stance I'll
take right now.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
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Speaker 2 (15:21):
So they were a team that I did notice they
got in djoku and then they go get Charlie Kohler
the blocking tight end. Lord Aby's a good catcher at
Iowa State. But they're a team that got three tight ends,
and I wonder if we'll see some new stuff from
Harball fun wrinkle. About a month ago, I go to
my gym and I go to get up shots, usually
on game day because I'm a loser who plays rec
league basketball and then practices shooting earlier.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
You got the Instagram reels going pretty consistent on that
that deep jumper don't underselling on the daily basis.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
So I go to the gym and I can. As
I walk up, I see it's packed. All these big
guys are playing. I'm like, damn it. And I walk in.
I'm like, these aren't normal guys. And it was like
half the Chargers defense was in there. And of course
I go talk to Drwyn James, who's like very clearly
the alpha, and he's like kind of reffing, and all
these guys were joking around. I start talking to the
guys and I'm like, these are like, these guys are
(16:10):
really connected. And I mean, obviously that applies nothing to
gambling here, but I just they were friendly, outgoing. They
really are a connected group. I like this Chargers pick
outside the box man to it. Maybe I and the
Super Bowls it's so fine.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
I should shouldn't be outside the box for how good
of a team is. But the real question how many
points did you put up? Again?
Speaker 2 (16:30):
I didn't play, No way am I getting with those guys.
Next Trey Harris, I think was the best guy out there,
the wide receiver. But I was like, I'm not no shot,
no shot? Interesting? So uh, Buffalo Bills loose tough one
in Denver in the playoffs, it's not talking about much,
but Josh Allen was quite bad in that game. I
think he had four turnovers. Bo Nix gets hurt at
(16:52):
the end. They end up firing the head coach, they
promote the OC. What are we to make of the Bills?
Is that run over or not? Really?
Speaker 3 (17:01):
It's never over as long as Josh Allen is there,
So I'm not going to say it's over. Boy, I
don't there's so much pressure on the incoming staff to
get the big win deep in the playoffs. Did they
add enough? I'm not convinced that they did. But again, like,
(17:21):
I'm not going to sit here and under sell the
Bills when you have Josh Allen in that offense, and
there's not much much like what we're just talking about
with the Ravens, Like they're priced to where they are
and they are what they are, and there's not really
a stance and I'm going to take one way or
the other with them. But as long as Allen is there,
I mean, I'd be crazy to say that this is
(17:42):
a team that's in any rebuilding or resetting mode. I
think they're still very legitimate and I think, honestly McDermott,
I think he got a pretty bad deal there, getting
let go for all he brought to that team, and
I know the optics down the stretch didn't look great
for him, but I thought he was still doing a
damn good job as a head coach.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
Hot take.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
It used to be that the AFC was loaded due
to the quarterbacks. Now that the all the quarterbacks in
the AFC have gotten paid, the rosters are starting to
thin out, and the strength is in the NFC, where
we saw quarterbacks on the rookie deal or quarterbacks who
were not maxed out make the playoffs last year at
an alarming rate. And I just wonder, is the NFC
(18:24):
actually harder and maybe you adjust totals and you're going
to bet more NFC unders and more AFC overs.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
Interesting thought. My only counter that that would be like
half the league makes the playoffs now, it seems, and
so that's fair. Is it because of that or is
it because of just again putting a lot of stock
in last year? Two years ago we were talking about
jayde Daniels taking over the league, and then last year,
through injuries and everything that broke down. It's like, and
(18:55):
that was my point at the start, is I really
think we have to look at last year kind of
independent of where a lot of these teams sit and
really decide what's for real and what's for not. And
so I'm with you on what you're saying. I don't
think the NFC out the North is the toughest division
in football. The West is second. You have an NFC
(19:16):
South that is very, very soft, and then you have
an NFC East I think is taking on a very
different look this season than what it has been seasons past.
So those two divisions and how your schedule lines up
around them really skews things. But with the expanded playoffs,
like I've really devalued strength of schedule, I've really devalued
(19:37):
how games are placed in the schedule as well when
it comes to betting outlook, just because there's so much
crossover now.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
So if you're devaluing those what are you putting more
stock in?
Speaker 3 (19:48):
Putting more stock in consistency of results week to week.
Something I think I'd learned pretty well in the last
couple of weeks is when you get or last couple
of seasons, pardon me, is a team like the Falcons
is a really good example. When you look at their
season last year, you had some monster wins and upsets
(20:09):
and just some mind numbing losses, and you had this
massive disconnect between something like yards per play and yards
per point and red zone efficiency. And it was broken
down to me by a very successful petter that when
you have teams like that where it's not lining up
and it's really inconsistent, it's a really strong reflection of
(20:30):
poor coaching. And so something I'm looking at more is
just trying to find those teams that are very consistent.
And I know it's something that has to happen in season.
It's not actionable now, but really in like evaluating past
results and looking at teams coming in now really emphasizing that.
And then another thing that I would say that I'm
(20:51):
as a devalue strength of schedule I think a Bears
team is really interesting is trying to look at teams
like that where the market views them one way, which
is in general this year, like there's a lot of
commentary about expected regression and luck metrics and things like that.
Over the last few years, those have become incredibly popular,
(21:12):
very interesting data points, but I'm really looking to see
for season long things like where those overrated and where
might those be wrong, and so I would say those
are two things that pop up in that strains of
schedule sort of discussion.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
Yeah, so the Claude cowork thing I built definitely likes
the under on the Bears. There's a bunch of data
I did. I started this little newsletter off, you know,
basically copying how good you the newsletter? You little newsletter.
It's just j Max newsletter. I don't really promote it
a lot because I don't want people saying you're selling picks.
I'm not really selling picks. I'm kind of trying to
break down games and there's a pick in the games.
(21:47):
But the Bears under is the number one according to
the model? Or have you at the groups you talk
to said anything Bears?
Speaker 3 (21:55):
What number did you get the under at? Putting you
on the spot.
Speaker 2 (21:59):
That's nine and a half. Let's see here, No Broncos
is nine and a half. Hold up.
Speaker 3 (22:05):
Here's what's interesting with the Bears as you check that out,
is I feel like ten years ago it was an
automatic slam dunk under because you would get that big adjustment.
The Bears are here all of these last year numbers,
the comebacks, the defensive stats that were fueled by takeaways,
(22:27):
but not play by play, like there's so many of
these things that are just set to regress the next year.
What I think is true now in twenty twenty six
is a lot of that gets priced into the market
and you don't get as big of a fluctuation. And
what I try to evaluate now is I look at
a team with Ben Johnson now as the head coach
(22:49):
that clearly every if you watch, completely rebuilt that culture
and completely rebuilt that team. But then also I think
about Detroit, what happen to the Lions last year? Very
different looking team now that you take him out. So
there's almost two seasons now of proof within one that's
a very significant coaching change. And so when I look
(23:12):
at the Bears, I tend to value the coaching change,
the offensive up pick, the Caleb Williams emergence, the wealth
of skill position players that they have, even with more
out of the picture, and say, I think that is
more for real than there's just this automatic regression, because
I think that is now put into the prices that
(23:33):
are in the market. And so I think about that division.
I'm an under on the Lions. I don't think there's
the bounce back this year. I think they've lost too much.
I think the Packers have a very maybe it's not
quite evident, but a disconnect between Lafleur and that team
and how they want to operate that I'm not buying into.
(23:53):
Oh and I think the Bears, even though they're priced
third to win that division, are deserving to be priced
a lot shorter than they are. So I'm actually bullish
or positive on the Bears to win the division and
to go over their win total. So I'm opposite the
Cowork model. I hate to put back on your own pod,
but that's good. I think Johnson's for real.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Yeah, no, he definitely is. I think some of the
numbers on Caleb Williams, you know, he had a couple
of magical comebacks and finishes there. He was sixteenth in
QBR nineteenth and EPA per play twenty fourth and success right,
and essentially they're saying this guy's being priced as a
superstar when in year one with Ben Jonson he was
just an average, like a league average quarterback or below average.
(24:39):
Where are you on Caleb Williams.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
I think there's more upside there. I mean, if we
go back to his rookie year he was borderline being
called a bust as he went through multiple coaches and
play callers and everything that came with that. So I
think that's a tough spot for a QB that goes
into his second season with all that turnover in the
first season, has all of this mess around him to
(25:03):
deal with from a publicity and a pr perspective and
all the all the stuff he had to deal with online,
and you see that culture shift. To me that carries
on in year two. If that was if that year
was flipped where we put year one out of our
minds and we are year two effectively with the new
(25:24):
team and the new culture and the new coach and
the new play caller. That's a monster start to a
year for a guy on a trajectory, and we give
him sort of a bit of slack for coming back
from what happened year one. I think that's a very
positive sign. So yeah, I think there's upsol there with
that offense. To go back to the Lions.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
Is part of the reason the Lions drop again is
because of the Ben Johnson loss.
Speaker 3 (25:48):
I think so they couldn't replicate what they had with
him last year, and now you're trying to do it
with another set of coordinators. This year, you're trying to
do it with an offensive line that was really the backbone.
You think about, remember that that game against the Rams
and overtime where they just ran nine or ten eleven
(26:08):
plays straight and ot and just went down the field,
and you were having just this train, just this train
of an old line just blowing back defensive lines. That's
not there anymore either. So not only is it this
team that was so full of hype and energy with
Campbell and Johnson and taking over the league behind this
(26:29):
dominant O line and everything was clicking. Now it's another
year removed from that, with more changes in different pieces.
I don't think that team is going to be the
same to what we saw them. I think two years
ago they had their window of opportunity and blew it.
And to me, I go back to some of those
postgame pressers in the playoffs after the big loss, it
(26:49):
just felt like Campbell and others knew, whether they wanted
to admit it or not, that that was the chance
that they whipped on. And so I just I think
that window was closed now on the Lions, and I
like the under this year.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Okay, So I got Bears under nine and a half
minus one twenty. I'm seeing under nine and a half
minus one forty one. Now not a significant move at all.
I guess it depends a bunch of money your betting.
But so you you like the Bears, what was your
take on the Packers? Again, because I'm seeing ten and
a half.
Speaker 3 (27:20):
I just can't get there. I don't know what's truly
going on in the scenes, but there's commentary coming out
anonymous surveys, the coach surveys about how Stanovich, doc and Laflora,
the head coach, just very low regarded by team staff, players,
whatever it might be. And I go back thinking about
(27:44):
consistency between games and program the course of the season.
This is a packman. I know they had injuries. You
give them a bit break for that, but it's that's
been more inconsistent to weak and what you're getting not
on from the results perspective and an offensive game plan perspective.
And I'm not talking about the games where we went
(28:05):
from Love to Willis and you're going from a sixty
five percent pass rate to a seventy five percent run rate.
I get why that's going to be different, but just
week to week, it's a team that feels very inconsistent,
and I think it's a reflection of the coaching staff.
And I don't think it's a bold take to say
there's the hot seat brewing at the coaching staff in
Green Bay. So that's my take from the outside. And
(28:29):
I just put that in contrast against Chicago, where it's
just full of positives and energy and upward trajectory, and
I just I would rather bet into that at that
price than than Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
It's interesting on the Eagles, Adam, it sounds like the
narrative from the media as well, they lost AJ Brown,
they're in trouble, But internally, I don't know if some
of these interviews you've seen with like Jordan Milatta and
a couple of Lane Johnson, they're making it sound like
without saying it openly, AJ Brown is auditioned by subtraction
that it was a confusing, annoying just and they're not
(29:04):
these are my words not there. It was just a
just constant disturbance. And now with that out of the picture,
perhaps Jalen Hurts, who I think is still highly regarded,
not everybody thinks that is going to lead this offense
and I see ten and a half, and the model
doesn't give a definite over, but it's like a lean
to the over. Where are you on the Eagles?
Speaker 3 (29:24):
I know exactly what you're saying. There's a gambling term
and prop betting that's called the squeaky wheel, which is
when you're watching these press conferences postgame, early week, midweek
after the first practice, is when a guy is complaining
about not getting targets and not getting inclusion in the
offensive game plan, and it's matched with coach commentary about, yeah,
(29:47):
we'll get him some targets early, we'll work him in.
That's typically a very popular over bet, and historically they've
actually hit very well when you find it and match
it up. AJ Brown was a squeaky wheel damn near
every week for like a season and a half two seasons,
and so there was almost a filter when you're going
through these to say like, oh, well, AJ Brown is
complaining again, we might not want to run and bet
(30:10):
that over. This happens every single week, So I get
that perspective of why the player feel that way. Where
I don't fully kind of reconcile that is just how
much he unlocked this offense in what they were able
to do because him opposite Smith, you had very contrasting
styles in receivers, and when Eagles were at their best,
(30:33):
they were very, very hard to game plan against defensively,
especially once Barkley was added, and that negated a lot
of the pressure and what defenses could do upfront. But
you had both of those receivers with Goddard that could
do very different things and it was really hard to
game plan against defensively. They now don't have that answer.
And so after we saw the O line last year
(30:54):
take a step back, we saw Barkley a lot less effective,
which after his record season makes sense, but it was
a big step back too. Now you remove that out
of you remove Brown out of the offense. Like are
those changes amid all the coaching weirdness that seems to
exist in Philly every single season between coach and play caller?
(31:17):
Like how does that get reconciled? And so I think
Washington wins the East and so I would be looking
at under on Philly.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Dan Quinn interesting Washington, Jayden Daniels Huh.
Speaker 1 (31:32):
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Speaker 2 (31:44):
That would be your second hotest take after the Chargers.
Would do you have a third?
Speaker 3 (31:49):
You would say the Commanders winning the East is not
hotter than Chargers Super No Charger.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
Of Super Bowls number one for short.
Speaker 3 (31:57):
Nobody has well o kids, but that's a perfect I
think all they've done is won eleven games back to
back seasons. You have Harbaugh, who's a widely regarded and
celebrated coach coming in that's expected to progress. You have
one of the best qbs in football. You have a
great offensive mind taking over. But I agree, Like I've
(32:18):
told this to a couple of people and they look
at me and give me a bit of a shake
of a head and surprise. It's like, why I don't
I can't understand why this team is so disrespected.
Speaker 2 (32:30):
I think I don't think it's disrespect I think it's
not just a Super Bowl as a quantum leap. You know,
this this goofy thing where hey, you got to walk
before you run in the NBA playoffs, you know, the
Knicks last year had that tough out then they win it.
This year, the Spurs, this was their first run sink
thing kind of applies in the NFL. You don't go
from zero playoff wins to boom super Bowl. That doesn't
(32:52):
usually happen. But I don't hate that take. I think
Washington probably would be your second because Daniels two years ago,
like you said, they were in the NFC Championship game
only comes. That's an old That's a rickety old team. Man.
You like their free agent moves.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
I think that it is a team that went and
broke out with something very measurable and different. I know
the fourth down luck two years ago was insanely high,
and that was not something that necessarily was sustainable. Daniels
played out of his mind. I was very critical of
that in the moment. But we now go on after
(33:30):
last year and again you start to look at some
of these prices and how they change in the drop,
and I think Washington, very Washington should be getting. This
is a good way to put it. Washington should be
getting the betting attention and the hype that the New
York Giants are getting. With Harbaugh coming in, I talked
about a lot of previews and thoughts in commentary that
(33:52):
I had elsewhere. I'm hearing a lot of love for
the Giants and a lot of love for the Giants
offense and where that can go. I don't see that
at all. And I think the Cowboys defensively, even with additions,
still have those They'll still be willing to play crazy shootouts.
But I think Washington now is the disrespected team in
the East, and I see some value there.
Speaker 2 (34:13):
And off the top of my head, I don't even
know who their offensive coordinators. I mean, I'm looking at
the receiving corps. Terry McLaurin, Okay, Luke McCaffrey, Antonio Williams, Traylon.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
Break get it going.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
Holy cow That is a brutal group. But lett, I mean,
I like the Rashad White pick up. Maybe you get
the one two punch with faster running backs. I just don't.
I don't know. Man, Again, you know you've been doing
this for a long time. You're probably seeing something I'm not. Washington.
I haven't looked at the schedule as I'm assuming it's favorable.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
Huh. Look, I'll put it this way with.
Speaker 2 (34:47):
Are you kidding me?
Speaker 3 (34:48):
But with right now, I could make a case that
every schedule is very difficult or very easy for every
team and I'm not going to find the spot where
based on schedule that it is not already priced in
to how a team's priced. Okay, and so that's where
I hit the brakes a little bit on strength of schedule.
(35:10):
And I also want to again, with so many teams
making the playoffs, like you just get situations down the
stretch that tend to act very differently Week eleven, twelve
onward where teams take on a very different look. And
so I'm i'm I'm encouraging a pumping of the breaks
on the strength of schedule talk.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
Okay, what about so then let's go to the Niners,
who have the most miles traveled in NFL history.
Speaker 3 (35:34):
Okay, so it's pumped to breaks on that too, because
that happens every single season.
Speaker 2 (35:37):
Yeah, it's goofy. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (35:39):
You know what else happens every single season? Niners lead
the league in injuries. Yeah, so there's this is a
really fun time to talk about the NFL because there's
these topics that come up that sound really fun to
talk about, but when it actually comes to betting, it's
either really really really well known or it just doesn't
have an impact. It is bad that they have two
(36:01):
international games, that's a bit crazy to me, like Australia
and then Mexico City I believe is where they play yep,
So that's a bit extreme. But again, like they're always
going to be traveling them or Seattle is always always
the team that's going to have the furthest miles travel
So I'm pumping the brakes on that one too.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
So of the stuff that is baked in or theoretically
baked in, what do we think is maybe not baked
in to the line and where it stands currently in
what June.
Speaker 3 (36:31):
This year specifically, with so many coordinator and play caller
and coach changes, I don't know if it's the most ever,
but I don't remember twenty plus changes, Like it's a
very very.
Speaker 2 (36:44):
Bay twenty one callers on offense.
Speaker 3 (36:47):
If a top of my head, it's ten head coaches
and twenty offensive coordinators have changed this year.
Speaker 2 (36:55):
So that's the thing. I guess from a gambling perspective,
you've got to do a deep dive analysis on who
the hell these guys are, what their tendencies are. But
for instance, Declan Doyle, the guy in Baltimore, how can
we know his tendencies if he's never called place.
Speaker 3 (37:09):
That's not the that's what's not priced in. David Blau
in Washington. To answer your question, do you like him?
Speaker 2 (37:16):
He was a bad quarterback?
Speaker 3 (37:18):
Sorry, sorry, David, Kellen Moore wasn't a great quarterback and
he's a hell of a play college.
Speaker 2 (37:22):
He was a quarterback Boise State.
Speaker 3 (37:27):
Wow, I'm talking NFL here.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
Okay, fait fair enough, David.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
So it's interesting, but that's a big We talked about
trands at the start. You have so many of these
young guys coming in. Mc veigh was forever the youngest
and now he's like six or seventh. I know he's
forty now, which sounds like a million years old in
the NFL, but it's that's a big trend that's going
on in the league. So yeah, to answer your question,
(37:52):
what are you going to get out of these offensive changes?
And I think compared to last year, there is going
to be an article posted on a very popular sports
news website in the United States by someone who's been
writing for a very long time, and it's going to
be regression candidates, both positive and negative for this coming season,
(38:13):
and that is going to clearly reflect for anywhere between
five and twelve teams what the market is pricing in
and so you now have on the vast majority of
those teams a new play caller or head coach or
OC that's going to bring in something different, and so
we know what's moving the number. Now we know what
(38:35):
everyone tends to value the unknown. Like you mentioned, what
are you going to get from play callers? What are
you going to get from coaches? Are team's going to
change tempo? Are they going to be more of an under,
more of an over? Are they going to be more efficient?
A team like the Saints, Is that offense going to
take a massive leap late down the stretch last year?
There were a ton of positives that team is not
(38:55):
being priced as a team that could possibly reflect how
much of a leap they could take on offense. A
lot of things like that. Trying to match it up,
that's where you have to be looking. If you're trying
to find an edge, so.
Speaker 2 (39:07):
That that's great stuff. And that's where I think AI
and Claude and Cowork and Google, Gemini or whatever you
want can help you. Now, it's going to take a
lot of searches, it's going to take a lot of questions,
and you have to double check obviously with sports because
they get shit wrong all the time. But that's the
kind of thing I think, Adam, that people are gonna
try to get ahead of and some you're gonna hit,
some you're gonna whiff on.
Speaker 1 (39:27):
Can I give it?
Speaker 3 (39:28):
Can I give a piece as someone who's bet professionally
for a number of years, but this is now season
eighteen betting the NFL. Can I give one suggestion to
anybody listening who might be thinking about that, please do yeah,
focus on your favorite team. I think is the best
advice I can give. And I know there's a there'll
be contradictory advice to that where it says, wow, you're
(39:48):
going to be a homer and you're only going to
bet on your team and what have you. But my
counterpoint to that now is with with a million props
per game and a million props in play during the game,
and prediction markets now allowing you to bet on things
that we never thought was pausible on both the yes
and the no. If you're an expert on your favorite
(40:11):
team and now you have all these tools you're mentioning
to help you out, and you can go a little
bit deeper on the new play caller, or how receivers
are going to be used, or did the second round
receiver that got drafted impress in camp and now he's
going to get extra snapshare so his props are more valuable.
There's a very good chance that anybody listening to this
has a very specialized knowledge around one team that they
(40:33):
follow in we could call it the top fifteen percentile
of fans across the nation. If you just elevate that
a little bit and do a little bit more of
what you like for the team you like, I promise
you somewhere in September and you look through the betting menu,
something really good is going to pop out to you.
If you just put in a little bit of extra
(40:54):
attention to your favorite team, you'll find something. Because there's
so many ways to bet this now. I think back
eighteen years we had pregame point spread over under money
line and if we were lucky, we got a halftime
line that we could bet on for the second half,
and that was pretty well the extent of it. Now
there's a million ways to do it. So that would
be my point on that.
Speaker 2 (41:14):
To start speaking of favorite teams, I know that the
NFL hates when people talk about tanking.
Speaker 3 (41:20):
Boy, I know where you're going.
Speaker 2 (41:22):
Yeah, listen, this is going to be a every year
they say this legendary draft class. It's so loaded Archvanning
blah blah blah.
Speaker 3 (41:29):
Okay, we got it.
Speaker 2 (41:30):
But if you look at some of these NFL teams,
I feel like moves that they made were designed to, Hey,
we're gonna get like Seattle. We're gonna load up the roster,
but we're not going to fix the quarterback. We'll find
them in the draft. And I'm looking at your favorite
team in mind, the Jets, who have a pretty damn
good roster. At them, they just don't have a quarterbacks.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
No, no, I'm not going there. They keep going.
Speaker 2 (41:49):
I think they're gonna be bad. I'm not thinking they're
gonna be good. The Cleveland Browns just traded Miles Garrett.
They have a good roster, but again, the quarterback situation
is very underwater. I'm this Colt team. I thought they
were gonna be Daniel Jones for at least the first
four games. But I see him practicing in some capacity.
I don't know, we'll see. I think the Raiders are
going to be pretty good. Who are the other two others?
(42:10):
That are bad. Oh, the Arizona Cardinals are the other one.
It's like a race to the bottom as they are horrific.
Jacoby Brissett I think is still like pissed at them
and their quarterback situation is unsettled. Do you think those
three teams and maybe I forgot one are kind of
in the mixed soft tanking saying, hey, we just want
to build a roster, we don't care about our quarterback play.
Speaker 3 (42:30):
I thought you were going to force me to say
that Jets had a great draft and it's going to
change the roster and there's optimism. So I'm glad we're
not going that directly. Well, no, after after having oh
oh ROI and d ROI a couple of years ago
and that leading to absolutely nothing, I'm not I'm not
falling for the bait again. Do I think soft tanking
(42:51):
exists or will happen? I don't because of two I
think over we overanalyze, for example, a team like Arizona
who's an underdog in every single game that has really
(43:13):
no expectation of being decent, like that's just going to
be a bad football team all season, and we might
look and say, hey, the Cardinals are tanking, though it's
just a bad football team with a coach I think
is over his head. So I think that happens more
than teams actually soft tank. And then this would be
the second thing. And again I'm not a massive college
(43:36):
football guy, nor am I a big college football evaluator,
but from working with a group who specialized in college
football and college basketball betting professionally, what I will say
is a very kind of popular thought just discussed, not
necessarily actionable from a betting perspective, is now with nil
(43:57):
and the deals that are going on within college qbs
are not sitting in these programs and developing in the
same way that they once were, and that's leading to
a lot more uncertainty within the draft, especially entering the
first year, where college is now becoming kind of the
individual performance to gather the attention and capitalize on that,
(44:22):
and the transition into the NFL is becoming a lot
less predictable than it once was, again going back five, ten,
fifteen years, and so I don't have concrete data on that,
but thinking about it and what we're talking like, these
these guys are going to be going to bad football
teams in bad situations because they're going to be drafted
(44:43):
high in the first round. With the NFL evolving so much,
with young coaches coming in and new schemes and new systems,
there's now this very high risk boom or bust I
think with a lot of these guys that are being
drafted very hi. So I don't know if the if
the upsiding guarantee in the call it soft tank is
(45:08):
there like it used to be. It might be a
wild outlandish take. But no, no, no, that that's the
most reasonable thing I've heard about.
Speaker 2 (45:15):
Well, it's cam Ward. I remember last year I was
bullish on the Titans and listening to you now, I remember,
Oh yeah, that guy played, I believe, at three colleges
in three years. It was a medior crist Maybe you
went to Washington State for two whatever, and he struggled
last year. But you saying dable earlier is kind of
a bat signal to me to drill down a little bit.
I love Salah, We loved him with the Jets. He
(45:35):
was on track to do a pretty damn good thing.
And then of course Aaron Rodgers gets hurt.
Speaker 3 (45:39):
But damn circle this one in regards to the Titans.
The Titans play the Giants. I think Week three, oh I,
I mean it's there's obviously no line on the game
yet there'll be a point sped, but there's no total
and no team total. The team total for the Titans
is going to have to be thirty five and a half,
(46:01):
which will ever happen for me not to bet the
over in that game, like I promise you. Brian Daball
has been prepping offensively for that game already for five weeks.
In the back of his mind as he puts his
head on his pillow at night, that is going to
be just him again, going back to those great Bills
days where there were just some amazing opening scripts. He
(46:24):
is going to throw everything at that team. I think
it's an exciting offense, but I just you're not getting
me on a Titan.
Speaker 2 (46:29):
Sellar Chargers at Dolphins December twenty seventh. Mike McDaniel gonna
hang up fifty burger, Miami, give me fifty mine. He's
in that group of tankers. I'm sorry, I forgot the
maleigue Willis and like a bunch of guys that is
such a good angle. This new assistant coach is, so
I will be spending the next five hours.
Speaker 3 (46:49):
Well, we've got like again, there's so many of them,
and it's some of them left on good terms and promoted.
But there's a real thing to the vengeance and the
head to head matchups that happen week to week between
staffs and extra motivation. It's a tricky thing to keep
up with, but that's a very real thing when it.
Speaker 2 (47:10):
Comes to Adam Turnoff. This is a forty five powerful
minutes on gambling. It's good to have you back in
the fold. I assume you're going to be doing a
cross country tour now that you're you know, fit and
have all this time on your hands and wealthy. I
just do that in there. Thanks a lot, man. Have
a great, great summer in lovely Canada. I hear Auto
(47:31):
was amazing in June. Have you been there?
Speaker 3 (47:34):
Weirdly enough, I have actually been to Ottawa and June,
and I can't confirm. It is pretty absolutely beautiful. I
think World Cup in Vancouver is a lot more fun
at the moment. Unfortunately not there, but Canada is pretty
good in June, July and August.
Speaker 2 (47:47):
So I'm enjoying it all right, buddy, Thanks a lot,
Take it easy
Speaker 3 (47:50):
Thanks very much, Chat soon.
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up
Straight Fire?
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Hey, it's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Boyer or Friday, June
the twenty sixth, have an amazing podcast for you today.
You're gonna absolutely love it. Adam Chernoff is breaking his
long silence, great NFL gambler. He kind of vanished for
(00:32):
about a year, didn't do any podcasts. This is his
return to podcasting. I'm honored that he decided to jump
on it with me. So we'll dive right into Adam
Churnoff just quickly. I'll do ninety seconds on USA Turkey A.
I know a lot of people have hot takes and
very very strong opinions on what went down, but I
will just preface this with we started one guy, Wester McKinney,
(00:55):
who started the other two games. I'm not going to
react at all when that's the kind of situation the
US was up against. It was almost all reserves, the
defensive line was leaky help badly in the first half.
We get a goal back from Burhalters to start the
second half, and then we bring on Polisic and largely
dominated the next twenty five minutes, and then of course
(01:19):
they get a goal in like the ninety seventh minute,
everybody was anna borrow some bodies. Everybody's like, why haven't
they blown the whistle? Why haven't they blown the whistle?
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Oooh goal?
Speaker 2 (01:30):
It was crazy. So Turkey A gets the three two win.
I don't read much into it. It was nice to
see Polisic back and healthy. I think that's probably the
biggest takeaway from this game that Polistic looked fine and frankly,
you know, even my dad's texting me, oh, come on,
we look terrible. What is this? Turkey A couldn't get
a goal for two games and they score. We had
backups in okay, And if you guys want to be real,
(01:52):
I'm gonna go ahead and use this as a positive.
We lost. Our team's gonna come out angry and fired
up because we did put in dest and some other
starters there at the end Tillman. So it was like,
if anything, we can use this as motivation. Guys, we're
not bulletproof, We're not the perfect team. We looked awesome
in the first two games. The backups didn't look great.
We got work to do, and then they come out
(02:13):
and smoke Bosnia. So I think let's be positive here.
You can overreact if you want. I'm not going to
all right without further ado. Let's get to him gambling guru,
Adam Chernoff.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
You know a guy Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
I know what sports fans wants, but for.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Let's welcome back to straight Fire. A guy who hasn't
done this podcast in a minute. He hasn't done any
podcasts in fourteen months. The man of mystery, Adam Chernoff,
gambling savant, gambling legend.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
I don't like savant. Let's pull that out of that. Okay,
let's keep going.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
We'll just go with Adam churn Off gambling guru. But
it's he's been a man of mystery. He's tough to
track down. I've been beating this guy down. I've been
following his weightlifting exploits on Instagram. Adam, You're a beast now,
Holy cow.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
There's been some life changes, to put it lightly, but
I'm feeling good. Doing well. Last year was very very good.
We had a if you remember an interview last April
that was a lot of fun. Have been doing this
now for about five or six years. Some happy to
be back and happy to be back doing media. It's
been a long time, so hopefully I'm not too rusty.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
He had to take a hiatus. I don't know if
you'll want to get into it, but now he's like
a powerlifter, he's a golfer. I mean, before we get
into the gambling. Just in terms of life changes, Adam,
would you call this a midlife crisis, a midlife awakening?
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Is there a midlife crisis happened at age thirty three?
Age three four? Maybe? I don't know.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
I might have seventy, but that's a past, yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
The honest truth. So for three years, as you know,
was betting professionally with a big betting group out of California.
And when you're doing that every day for the better
part of eight nine months a year, takes a bit
of a toll mentally physically, and so I was in
pretty rough shape. The scale was a big number, and
so it was a good switch back. I've been putting
(04:23):
in some work the last eight or nine months and
getting healthier and getting things sorted out, so in a
really really good spot now, had a lot of fun
those years and now it's onto some new things. So
still betting the NFL heavily, but the college basketball Daily Grind,
the off season CFL Grind and UFL Grind and everything
(04:46):
that came with that no longer, so a little bit
easier going lifestyle.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Now, real quick, are you doing any World Cup betting?
Because I'm not saying I've been on a generational heater, but.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Oh baby, you can't teach generational heater.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
That's just kind of a joke amongst some buddies I
text with. But I'm just first of all World Cup,
your quick thoughts.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
It's the one time every four years that my wife
watches sports, and so she's Colombian, so we spent a
lot of our winters and have been there for a
few years as well in the past, so directly tied
to that team. So I am Colombia to win. And
Lucho goalscorer every single match as long as it'll go.
And so one for one last week, we'll see coming
(05:30):
up against the Congo if it can go too for two,
but he looks damn good and hopefully they make a
deep run for entertainment, but nothing serious betting wise. Yeah,
no generational heater.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
For my no jet.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Well, I mean it's more of like, Okay, so you know,
obviously the AI revolution is happening, and I dove into
Claude a little bit, and I do the co work
and I just decided, you know, my goal this summer
is I'm gonna build a model for the World Cup.
I'm gonna build a model for NFL, and I'm gonna
see what I can do with it. And the model
had a couple misses early, but then it got pretty high,
(06:05):
and I'm just I don't know if this will translate
to the NFL, but I am curious. How much are
you using AI for your analysis, whether it's Google, Gemini,
I'm off Chat, GPT, but I find Claude pretty incredible.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
I didn't know that almost took a weird turn from
World Cup into AI. So I'm glad we went back
to this one. It's a good question. I would say
two years ago within the betting group really started implementing it.
Notebook LM, which is a Google product, is really really
good because it doesn't take outside research and it's directly
(06:38):
tied into YouTube, So for coach press conferences at scale
player interviews, pulling out quotes, sort of putting a bunch
of different previews all together, and being able to search
within it has been super valuable from a time saving perspective.
In terms of other usages like coordinates being input for
(07:02):
weather to get instead of saying, okay, I have to
go through sixteen different or fourteen different stadiums depending on
the week with dome games and pull out all the weather.
Just getting live weather right away, that's been really useful.
Looking at things like key numbers changes and putting together
a bunch of stats and box scores very quickly. That's
(07:23):
been very useful too. So I haven't got to the
point it sounds like where you're predicting games and making
money from it, but in terms of saving time, I've
probably freed up twelve ish hours a week from within
like a full NFL betting week of just like not
having the watch like coaches go on for twelve fifteen
(07:48):
minutes saying nothing to find out one quote, you can
get that right away. So that's been very useful for that.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
Wow, that's pretty interesting. Obviously we're still four months out
from the NFL and it's too excited to get or
you know, pumped up about some of these over unders
and totals and stuff. But I'm just curious, have you
seen anything in this off season overarching that you think
kind of as a big macro trend heading forward. Whether
it's some of the stuff that they was doing last
(08:13):
year with the three tight end sets. It seems like
there was a lot of defensive movement, some interesting coordinator hires,
but anything overall big picture that jumps out when it
comes to the NFL.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Okay, a couple things, big pictures. How much stock do
you put in last season? I feel like every week
Whenther the Bear is going to fall off with all
of the luck. What happened to the Commanders? Are the
Patriots for real? Or is this a really bad schedule?
Is Donald for real? Is this team back? Are the
Broncos for real? With Nicks? And where does this go?
(08:46):
There was so much doubt around so many teams, and
there were also a lot of teams that fell off
from the year prior going into that year. So how
do you think about Detroit going into this year? How
do you think about Washington going into this year? How
do you think about Chicago coming into this year. That's
kind of Number one is how much stock you putting
in last season and where the things bounce back. Another
(09:09):
thing that really stands out, like you mentioned the three
tight ends, is that going to be copied? Does that
slow down games? Does that change pace? There's a lot
of undercenter usage with play action being discussed and talked
about which quarterbacks fit that well? Is that going to
benefit someone like AJ Brown in New England with Drake
(09:30):
May who's very good at that matching receiver changes like that?
There's I think twenty one new play callers, coordinators, ten
new head coaches. How much does that change? Have there
been too much buy into the youth movement across the
league with some inexperienced coaches. Another one I would throw
(09:50):
out at you is something that I've really pushed in
a lot of media and things that I've done, and
something I believe in is the these guys that failed
as head coaches that were really good coordinators that get
to go back to being coordinators. I think is a
really really interesting topic. My stance is let great coordinators
(10:13):
stay great coordinators, especially in modern NFL, and we're seeing
so many early promotions. But you have now guy like
McDaniel going back being an OC. I love the interviews
so far. You have a guy like Dave All going
back to be an OC. Like think about those Buffalo offenses.
Those were amazing. So that's another fun one. So lots
(10:35):
from just the high level subjective stance this season. That's
really fun to talk about.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
So the team that jumps out that the biggest question
mark to me is the Baltimore Ravens, and they have
the highest wind total that I've seen, eleven and a half.
Yet they have a first time head coach in Minter,
a first time play caller in Decklan Doyle, and a
quarterback coming off an injury ish season who still doesn't
have the contract he wants. I didn't see any grades
(11:00):
on offense. I think they lost two tight ends kept
a starter. I don't get it at them eleven and
a half to schedule. I'm missing something in this, But
I don't know. Are the Ravens on your radar at all?
Were you surprised by eleven and a half?
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Not surprised by it. I'm not going to a spot
where I'm going over. I was talking with someone from
another group and they were just dead adamant that they're
going to win that division. I like it from the
aspect of you have a refresh for a culture that
was strong but had become a bit stale, especially in
(11:36):
bigger games. Just these weird collapses season after season that
were so costly. Maybe that gets a bit of a
refresh now with the coaching staff coming in and a
new look that's going to save them from these games
where they fall off. I think the offense is still
going to be very explosive. I like Mintor coming in
and what he brings to the defense and how that
can look. I just have a hard time buying into
(12:00):
any of the AFC North teams over the course of
the season running out to put up that kind of
win total when there's some level of questions within the team.
It's just not a division much like the NFC North
on the other side that I'm just super excited to
lay that big of a number and go over. So
I get why it's there, just because of all the
(12:21):
talent in the upside, But yeah, you're not getting me
on the over Jason, all.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Right, So what teams do jump out to you, whether
over or under? Everybody what loves this, Rams, Miles Garrett. Yeah,
but I'll let you go. I'll let you cook on that.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
I've really in the last like three to four weeks,
started going into previews and forming opinions on teams, and
like you said, the Rams are the consensus Super Bowl
team in the NFC. Like every preview, I'm breeding rams
rams rams rams on. On the other side, it's the Bengals
again from that AFC division of hell. On that side.
(12:59):
For me, Chargers win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Bye she wait a wit waitit.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
This is justin held jump. I texted you when you
forgot my email after all these years and said I'm
coming in with opinions and I'm not going to hold
back because it's been a long hiatus. Chargers.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
I mean, I like.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Them, but oh my gosh, this probably goes to Mike McDaniel,
Like you said, coordinator goes to Miami, who was a
good coach, good head coach, maybe not a great head coach,
got to the playoffs twice, and now he goes back
to being a coordinator. Interesting.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
I like it. I haven't seen a lot of talk
about it, which quietly makes me like it a little
bit more. I think Harbaugh has proven back to back
double digit wins. They haven't got the playoff win, but
both of these years he has been there. Hell of
a coach. It's been offensive line injury after offensive line
injury after offensive line injury, Herbert dealing with an injury,
(13:51):
these old wide receivers breaking down, and still they're getting
double digit wins getting to the playoffs. They've just been
a team that's broken down. Now you have an offensive
coordinator who has been praised for having some of the
most creative offenses in the last six or seven years
in the NFL, putting up crazy numbers. Love what he's
(14:12):
doing on field, how he's interacting with players. I love
what he brings to the team. But hey invested so
much in the offensive line. And last year when Alton
Slater were both healthy and this team could operate as
they wanted, oh my god, they looked so good. And
so I'm not a believer as well rounded as Denver
(14:34):
is at carrying over what they did last year into
this year. I have questions there. I have a lot
of questions about the turnover and KC on both sides
of the ball. And I look at la as this
team that's been right there. The last couple of years
with so many issues that now has just depth to
where they've been hurt the most. And a QB and
(14:55):
Herbert I think wins the MVP and a team that
I think has a monster season. So to me, the
Chargers are the breakout team in the AFC. There's more
on both sides, but that's that's the adamant stance I'll
take right now.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
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Speaker 2 (15:21):
So they were a team that I did notice they
got in djoku and then they go get Charlie Kohler
the blocking tight end. Lord Aby's a good catcher at
Iowa State. But they're a team that got three tight ends,
and I wonder if we'll see some new stuff from
Harball fun wrinkle. About a month ago, I go to
my gym and I go to get up shots, usually
on game day because I'm a loser who plays rec
league basketball and then practices shooting earlier.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
You got the Instagram reels going pretty consistent on that
that deep jumper don't underselling on the daily basis.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
So I go to the gym and I can. As
I walk up, I see it's packed. All these big
guys are playing. I'm like, damn it. And I walk in.
I'm like, these aren't normal guys. And it was like
half the Chargers defense was in there. And of course
I go talk to Drwyn James, who's like very clearly
the alpha, and he's like kind of reffing, and all
these guys were joking around. I start talking to the
guys and I'm like, these are like, these guys are
(16:10):
really connected. And I mean, obviously that applies nothing to
gambling here, but I just they were friendly, outgoing. They
really are a connected group. I like this Chargers pick
outside the box man to it. Maybe I and the
Super Bowls it's so fine.
Speaker 3 (16:24):
I should shouldn't be outside the box for how good
of a team is. But the real question how many
points did you put up? Again?
Speaker 2 (16:30):
I didn't play, No way am I getting with those guys.
Next Trey Harris, I think was the best guy out there,
the wide receiver. But I was like, I'm not no shot,
no shot? Interesting? So uh, Buffalo Bills loose tough one
in Denver in the playoffs, it's not talking about much,
but Josh Allen was quite bad in that game. I
think he had four turnovers. Bo Nix gets hurt at
(16:52):
the end. They end up firing the head coach, they
promote the OC. What are we to make of the Bills?
Is that run over or not? Really?
Speaker 3 (17:01):
It's never over as long as Josh Allen is there,
So I'm not going to say it's over. Boy, I
don't there's so much pressure on the incoming staff to
get the big win deep in the playoffs. Did they
add enough? I'm not convinced that they did. But again, like,
(17:21):
I'm not going to sit here and under sell the
Bills when you have Josh Allen in that offense, and
there's not much much like what we're just talking about
with the Ravens, Like they're priced to where they are
and they are what they are, and there's not really
a stance and I'm going to take one way or
the other with them. But as long as Allen is there,
I mean, I'd be crazy to say that this is
(17:42):
a team that's in any rebuilding or resetting mode. I
think they're still very legitimate and I think, honestly McDermott,
I think he got a pretty bad deal there, getting
let go for all he brought to that team, and
I know the optics down the stretch didn't look great
for him, but I thought he was still doing a
damn good job as a head coach.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
Hot take.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
It used to be that the AFC was loaded due
to the quarterbacks. Now that the all the quarterbacks in
the AFC have gotten paid, the rosters are starting to
thin out, and the strength is in the NFC, where
we saw quarterbacks on the rookie deal or quarterbacks who
were not maxed out make the playoffs last year at
an alarming rate. And I just wonder, is the NFC
(18:24):
actually harder and maybe you adjust totals and you're going
to bet more NFC unders and more AFC overs.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
Interesting thought. My only counter that that would be like
half the league makes the playoffs now, it seems, and
so that's fair. Is it because of that or is
it because of just again putting a lot of stock
in last year? Two years ago we were talking about
jayde Daniels taking over the league, and then last year,
through injuries and everything that broke down. It's like, and
(18:55):
that was my point at the start, is I really
think we have to look at last year kind of
independent of where a lot of these teams sit and
really decide what's for real and what's for not. And
so I'm with you on what you're saying. I don't
think the NFC out the North is the toughest division
in football. The West is second. You have an NFC
(19:16):
South that is very, very soft, and then you have
an NFC East I think is taking on a very
different look this season than what it has been seasons past.
So those two divisions and how your schedule lines up
around them really skews things. But with the expanded playoffs,
like I've really devalued strength of schedule, I've really devalued
(19:37):
how games are placed in the schedule as well when
it comes to betting outlook, just because there's so much
crossover now.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
So if you're devaluing those what are you putting more
stock in?
Speaker 3 (19:48):
Putting more stock in consistency of results week to week.
Something I think I'd learned pretty well in the last
couple of weeks is when you get or last couple
of seasons, pardon me, is a team like the Falcons
is a really good example. When you look at their
season last year, you had some monster wins and upsets
(20:09):
and just some mind numbing losses, and you had this
massive disconnect between something like yards per play and yards
per point and red zone efficiency. And it was broken
down to me by a very successful petter that when
you have teams like that where it's not lining up
and it's really inconsistent, it's a really strong reflection of
(20:30):
poor coaching. And so something I'm looking at more is
just trying to find those teams that are very consistent.
And I know it's something that has to happen in season.
It's not actionable now, but really in like evaluating past
results and looking at teams coming in now really emphasizing that.
And then another thing that I would say that I'm
(20:51):
as a devalue strength of schedule I think a Bears
team is really interesting is trying to look at teams
like that where the market views them one way, which
is in general this year, like there's a lot of
commentary about expected regression and luck metrics and things like that.
Over the last few years, those have become incredibly popular,
(21:12):
very interesting data points, but I'm really looking to see
for season long things like where those overrated and where
might those be wrong, and so I would say those
are two things that pop up in that strains of
schedule sort of discussion.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
Yeah, so the Claude cowork thing I built definitely likes
the under on the Bears. There's a bunch of data
I did. I started this little newsletter off, you know,
basically copying how good you the newsletter? You little newsletter.
It's just j Max newsletter. I don't really promote it
a lot because I don't want people saying you're selling picks.
I'm not really selling picks. I'm kind of trying to
break down games and there's a pick in the games.
(21:47):
But the Bears under is the number one according to
the model? Or have you at the groups you talk
to said anything Bears?
Speaker 3 (21:55):
What number did you get the under at? Putting you
on the spot.
Speaker 2 (21:59):
That's nine and a half. Let's see here, No Broncos
is nine and a half. Hold up.
Speaker 3 (22:05):
Here's what's interesting with the Bears as you check that out,
is I feel like ten years ago it was an
automatic slam dunk under because you would get that big adjustment.
The Bears are here all of these last year numbers,
the comebacks, the defensive stats that were fueled by takeaways,
(22:27):
but not play by play, like there's so many of
these things that are just set to regress the next year.
What I think is true now in twenty twenty six
is a lot of that gets priced into the market
and you don't get as big of a fluctuation. And
what I try to evaluate now is I look at
a team with Ben Johnson now as the head coach
(22:49):
that clearly every if you watch, completely rebuilt that culture
and completely rebuilt that team. But then also I think
about Detroit, what happen to the Lions last year? Very
different looking team now that you take him out. So
there's almost two seasons now of proof within one that's
a very significant coaching change. And so when I look
(23:12):
at the Bears, I tend to value the coaching change,
the offensive up pick, the Caleb Williams emergence, the wealth
of skill position players that they have, even with more
out of the picture, and say, I think that is
more for real than there's just this automatic regression, because
I think that is now put into the prices that
(23:33):
are in the market. And so I think about that division.
I'm an under on the Lions. I don't think there's
the bounce back this year. I think they've lost too much.
I think the Packers have a very maybe it's not
quite evident, but a disconnect between Lafleur and that team
and how they want to operate that I'm not buying into.
(23:53):
Oh and I think the Bears, even though they're priced
third to win that division, are deserving to be priced
a lot shorter than they are. So I'm actually bullish
or positive on the Bears to win the division and
to go over their win total. So I'm opposite the
Cowork model. I hate to put back on your own pod,
but that's good. I think Johnson's for real.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Yeah, no, he definitely is. I think some of the
numbers on Caleb Williams, you know, he had a couple
of magical comebacks and finishes there. He was sixteenth in
QBR nineteenth and EPA per play twenty fourth and success right,
and essentially they're saying this guy's being priced as a
superstar when in year one with Ben Jonson he was
just an average, like a league average quarterback or below average.
(24:39):
Where are you on Caleb Williams.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
I think there's more upside there. I mean, if we
go back to his rookie year he was borderline being
called a bust as he went through multiple coaches and
play callers and everything that came with that. So I
think that's a tough spot for a QB that goes
into his second season with all that turnover in the
first season, has all of this mess around him to
(25:03):
deal with from a publicity and a pr perspective and
all the all the stuff he had to deal with online,
and you see that culture shift. To me that carries
on in year two. If that was if that year
was flipped where we put year one out of our
minds and we are year two effectively with the new
(25:24):
team and the new culture and the new coach and
the new play caller. That's a monster start to a
year for a guy on a trajectory, and we give
him sort of a bit of slack for coming back
from what happened year one. I think that's a very
positive sign. So yeah, I think there's upsol there with
that offense. To go back to the Lions.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
Is part of the reason the Lions drop again is
because of the Ben Johnson loss.
Speaker 3 (25:48):
I think so they couldn't replicate what they had with
him last year, and now you're trying to do it
with another set of coordinators. This year, you're trying to
do it with an offensive line that was really the backbone.
You think about, remember that that game against the Rams
and overtime where they just ran nine or ten eleven
(26:08):
plays straight and ot and just went down the field,
and you were having just this train, just this train
of an old line just blowing back defensive lines. That's
not there anymore either. So not only is it this
team that was so full of hype and energy with
Campbell and Johnson and taking over the league behind this
(26:29):
dominant O line and everything was clicking. Now it's another
year removed from that, with more changes in different pieces.
I don't think that team is going to be the
same to what we saw them. I think two years
ago they had their window of opportunity and blew it.
And to me, I go back to some of those
postgame pressers in the playoffs after the big loss, it
(26:49):
just felt like Campbell and others knew, whether they wanted
to admit it or not, that that was the chance
that they whipped on. And so I just I think
that window was closed now on the Lions, and I
like the under this year.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Okay, So I got Bears under nine and a half
minus one twenty. I'm seeing under nine and a half
minus one forty one. Now not a significant move at all.
I guess it depends a bunch of money your betting.
But so you you like the Bears, what was your
take on the Packers? Again, because I'm seeing ten and
a half.
Speaker 3 (27:20):
I just can't get there. I don't know what's truly
going on in the scenes, but there's commentary coming out
anonymous surveys, the coach surveys about how Stanovich, doc and Laflora,
the head coach, just very low regarded by team staff, players,
whatever it might be. And I go back thinking about
(27:44):
consistency between games and program the course of the season.
This is a packman. I know they had injuries. You
give them a bit break for that, but it's that's
been more inconsistent to weak and what you're getting not
on from the results perspective and an offensive game plan perspective.
And I'm not talking about the games where we went
(28:05):
from Love to Willis and you're going from a sixty
five percent pass rate to a seventy five percent run rate.
I get why that's going to be different, but just
week to week, it's a team that feels very inconsistent,
and I think it's a reflection of the coaching staff.
And I don't think it's a bold take to say
there's the hot seat brewing at the coaching staff in
Green Bay. So that's my take from the outside. And
(28:29):
I just put that in contrast against Chicago, where it's
just full of positives and energy and upward trajectory, and
I just I would rather bet into that at that
price than than Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
It's interesting on the Eagles, Adam, it sounds like the
narrative from the media as well, they lost AJ Brown,
they're in trouble, But internally, I don't know if some
of these interviews you've seen with like Jordan Milatta and
a couple of Lane Johnson, they're making it sound like
without saying it openly, AJ Brown is auditioned by subtraction
that it was a confusing, annoying just and they're not
(29:04):
these are my words not there. It was just a
just constant disturbance. And now with that out of the picture,
perhaps Jalen Hurts, who I think is still highly regarded,
not everybody thinks that is going to lead this offense
and I see ten and a half, and the model
doesn't give a definite over, but it's like a lean
to the over. Where are you on the Eagles?
Speaker 3 (29:24):
I know exactly what you're saying. There's a gambling term
and prop betting that's called the squeaky wheel, which is
when you're watching these press conferences postgame, early week, midweek
after the first practice, is when a guy is complaining
about not getting targets and not getting inclusion in the
offensive game plan, and it's matched with coach commentary about, yeah,
(29:47):
we'll get him some targets early, we'll work him in.
That's typically a very popular over bet, and historically they've
actually hit very well when you find it and match
it up. AJ Brown was a squeaky wheel damn near
every week for like a season and a half two seasons,
and so there was almost a filter when you're going
through these to say like, oh, well, AJ Brown is
complaining again, we might not want to run and bet
(30:10):
that over. This happens every single week, So I get
that perspective of why the player feel that way. Where
I don't fully kind of reconcile that is just how
much he unlocked this offense in what they were able
to do because him opposite Smith, you had very contrasting
styles in receivers, and when Eagles were at their best,
(30:33):
they were very, very hard to game plan against defensively,
especially once Barkley was added, and that negated a lot
of the pressure and what defenses could do upfront. But
you had both of those receivers with Goddard that could
do very different things and it was really hard to
game plan against defensively. They now don't have that answer.
And so after we saw the O line last year
(30:54):
take a step back, we saw Barkley a lot less effective,
which after his record season makes sense, but it was
a big step back too. Now you remove that out
of you remove Brown out of the offense. Like are
those changes amid all the coaching weirdness that seems to
exist in Philly every single season between coach and play caller?
(31:17):
Like how does that get reconciled? And so I think
Washington wins the East and so I would be looking
at under on Philly.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Dan Quinn interesting Washington, Jayden Daniels Huh.
Speaker 1 (31:32):
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the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports radio
dot Com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
That would be your second hotest take after the Chargers.
Would do you have a third?
Speaker 3 (31:49):
You would say the Commanders winning the East is not
hotter than Chargers Super No Charger.
Speaker 2 (31:55):
Of Super Bowls number one for short.
Speaker 3 (31:57):
Nobody has well o kids, but that's a perfect I
think all they've done is won eleven games back to
back seasons. You have Harbaugh, who's a widely regarded and
celebrated coach coming in that's expected to progress. You have
one of the best qbs in football. You have a
great offensive mind taking over. But I agree, Like I've
(32:18):
told this to a couple of people and they look
at me and give me a bit of a shake
of a head and surprise. It's like, why I don't
I can't understand why this team is so disrespected.
Speaker 2 (32:30):
I think I don't think it's disrespect I think it's
not just a Super Bowl as a quantum leap. You know,
this this goofy thing where hey, you got to walk
before you run in the NBA playoffs, you know, the
Knicks last year had that tough out then they win it.
This year, the Spurs, this was their first run sink
thing kind of applies in the NFL. You don't go
from zero playoff wins to boom super Bowl. That doesn't
(32:52):
usually happen. But I don't hate that take. I think
Washington probably would be your second because Daniels two years ago,
like you said, they were in the NFC Championship game
only comes. That's an old That's a rickety old team. Man.
You like their free agent moves.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
I think that it is a team that went and
broke out with something very measurable and different. I know
the fourth down luck two years ago was insanely high,
and that was not something that necessarily was sustainable. Daniels
played out of his mind. I was very critical of
that in the moment. But we now go on after
(33:30):
last year and again you start to look at some
of these prices and how they change in the drop,
and I think Washington, very Washington should be getting. This
is a good way to put it. Washington should be
getting the betting attention and the hype that the New
York Giants are getting. With Harbaugh coming in, I talked
about a lot of previews and thoughts in commentary that
(33:52):
I had elsewhere. I'm hearing a lot of love for
the Giants and a lot of love for the Giants
offense and where that can go. I don't see that
at all. And I think the Cowboys defensively, even with additions,
still have those They'll still be willing to play crazy shootouts.
But I think Washington now is the disrespected team in
the East, and I see some value there.
Speaker 2 (34:13):
And off the top of my head, I don't even
know who their offensive coordinators. I mean, I'm looking at
the receiving corps. Terry McLaurin, Okay, Luke McCaffrey, Antonio Williams, Traylon.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
Break get it going.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
Holy cow That is a brutal group. But lett, I mean,
I like the Rashad White pick up. Maybe you get
the one two punch with faster running backs. I just don't.
I don't know. Man, Again, you know you've been doing
this for a long time. You're probably seeing something I'm not. Washington.
I haven't looked at the schedule as I'm assuming it's favorable.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
Huh. Look, I'll put it this way with.
Speaker 2 (34:47):
Are you kidding me?
Speaker 3 (34:48):
But with right now, I could make a case that
every schedule is very difficult or very easy for every
team and I'm not going to find the spot where
based on schedule that it is not already priced in
to how a team's priced. Okay, and so that's where
I hit the brakes a little bit on strength of schedule.
(35:10):
And I also want to again, with so many teams
making the playoffs, like you just get situations down the
stretch that tend to act very differently Week eleven, twelve
onward where teams take on a very different look. And
so I'm i'm I'm encouraging a pumping of the breaks
on the strength of schedule talk.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
Okay, what about so then let's go to the Niners,
who have the most miles traveled in NFL history.
Speaker 3 (35:34):
Okay, so it's pumped to breaks on that too, because
that happens every single season.
Speaker 2 (35:37):
Yeah, it's goofy. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (35:39):
You know what else happens every single season? Niners lead
the league in injuries. Yeah, so there's this is a
really fun time to talk about the NFL because there's
these topics that come up that sound really fun to
talk about, but when it actually comes to betting, it's
either really really really well known or it just doesn't
have an impact. It is bad that they have two
(36:01):
international games, that's a bit crazy to me, like Australia
and then Mexico City I believe is where they play yep,
So that's a bit extreme. But again, like they're always
going to be traveling them or Seattle is always always
the team that's going to have the furthest miles travel
So I'm pumping the brakes on that one too.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
So of the stuff that is baked in or theoretically
baked in, what do we think is maybe not baked
in to the line and where it stands currently in
what June.
Speaker 3 (36:31):
This year specifically, with so many coordinator and play caller
and coach changes, I don't know if it's the most ever,
but I don't remember twenty plus changes, Like it's a
very very.
Speaker 2 (36:44):
Bay twenty one callers on offense.
Speaker 3 (36:47):
If a top of my head, it's ten head coaches
and twenty offensive coordinators have changed this year.
Speaker 2 (36:55):
So that's the thing. I guess from a gambling perspective,
you've got to do a deep dive analysis on who
the hell these guys are, what their tendencies are. But
for instance, Declan Doyle, the guy in Baltimore, how can
we know his tendencies if he's never called place.
Speaker 3 (37:09):
That's not the that's what's not priced in. David Blau
in Washington. To answer your question, do you like him?
Speaker 2 (37:16):
He was a bad quarterback?
Speaker 3 (37:18):
Sorry, sorry, David, Kellen Moore wasn't a great quarterback and
he's a hell of a play college.
Speaker 2 (37:22):
He was a quarterback Boise State.
Speaker 3 (37:27):
Wow, I'm talking NFL here.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
Okay, fait fair enough, David.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
So it's interesting, but that's a big We talked about
trands at the start. You have so many of these
young guys coming in. Mc veigh was forever the youngest
and now he's like six or seventh. I know he's
forty now, which sounds like a million years old in
the NFL, but it's that's a big trend that's going
on in the league. So yeah, to answer your question,
(37:52):
what are you going to get out of these offensive changes?
And I think compared to last year, there is going
to be an article posted on a very popular sports
news website in the United States by someone who's been
writing for a very long time, and it's going to
be regression candidates, both positive and negative for this coming season,
(38:13):
and that is going to clearly reflect for anywhere between
five and twelve teams what the market is pricing in
and so you now have on the vast majority of
those teams a new play caller or head coach or
OC that's going to bring in something different, and so
we know what's moving the number. Now we know what
(38:35):
everyone tends to value the unknown. Like you mentioned, what
are you going to get from play callers? What are
you going to get from coaches? Are team's going to
change tempo? Are they going to be more of an under,
more of an over? Are they going to be more efficient?
A team like the Saints, Is that offense going to
take a massive leap late down the stretch last year?
There were a ton of positives that team is not
(38:55):
being priced as a team that could possibly reflect how
much of a leap they could take on offense. A
lot of things like that. Trying to match it up,
that's where you have to be looking. If you're trying
to find an edge, so.
Speaker 2 (39:07):
That that's great stuff. And that's where I think AI
and Claude and Cowork and Google, Gemini or whatever you
want can help you. Now, it's going to take a
lot of searches, it's going to take a lot of questions,
and you have to double check obviously with sports because
they get shit wrong all the time. But that's the
kind of thing I think, Adam, that people are gonna
try to get ahead of and some you're gonna hit,
some you're gonna whiff on.
Speaker 1 (39:27):
Can I give it?
Speaker 3 (39:28):
Can I give a piece as someone who's bet professionally
for a number of years, but this is now season
eighteen betting the NFL. Can I give one suggestion to
anybody listening who might be thinking about that, please do yeah,
focus on your favorite team. I think is the best
advice I can give. And I know there's a there'll
be contradictory advice to that where it says, wow, you're
(39:48):
going to be a homer and you're only going to
bet on your team and what have you. But my
counterpoint to that now is with with a million props
per game and a million props in play during the game,
and prediction markets now allowing you to bet on things
that we never thought was pausible on both the yes
and the no. If you're an expert on your favorite
(40:11):
team and now you have all these tools you're mentioning
to help you out, and you can go a little
bit deeper on the new play caller, or how receivers
are going to be used, or did the second round
receiver that got drafted impress in camp and now he's
going to get extra snapshare so his props are more valuable.
There's a very good chance that anybody listening to this
has a very specialized knowledge around one team that they
(40:33):
follow in we could call it the top fifteen percentile
of fans across the nation. If you just elevate that
a little bit and do a little bit more of
what you like for the team you like, I promise
you somewhere in September and you look through the betting menu,
something really good is going to pop out to you.
If you just put in a little bit of extra
(40:54):
attention to your favorite team, you'll find something. Because there's
so many ways to bet this now. I think back
eighteen years we had pregame point spread over under money
line and if we were lucky, we got a halftime
line that we could bet on for the second half,
and that was pretty well the extent of it. Now
there's a million ways to do it. So that would
be my point on that.
Speaker 2 (41:14):
To start speaking of favorite teams, I know that the
NFL hates when people talk about tanking.
Speaker 3 (41:20):
Boy, I know where you're going.
Speaker 2 (41:22):
Yeah, listen, this is going to be a every year
they say this legendary draft class. It's so loaded Archvanning
blah blah blah.
Speaker 3 (41:29):
Okay, we got it.
Speaker 2 (41:30):
But if you look at some of these NFL teams,
I feel like moves that they made were designed to, Hey,
we're gonna get like Seattle. We're gonna load up the roster,
but we're not going to fix the quarterback. We'll find
them in the draft. And I'm looking at your favorite
team in mind, the Jets, who have a pretty damn
good roster. At them, they just don't have a quarterbacks.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
No, no, I'm not going there. They keep going.
Speaker 2 (41:49):
I think they're gonna be bad. I'm not thinking they're
gonna be good. The Cleveland Browns just traded Miles Garrett.
They have a good roster, but again, the quarterback situation
is very underwater. I'm this Colt team. I thought they
were gonna be Daniel Jones for at least the first
four games. But I see him practicing in some capacity.
I don't know, we'll see. I think the Raiders are
going to be pretty good. Who are the other two others?
(42:10):
That are bad. Oh, the Arizona Cardinals are the other one.
It's like a race to the bottom as they are horrific.
Jacoby Brissett I think is still like pissed at them
and their quarterback situation is unsettled. Do you think those
three teams and maybe I forgot one are kind of
in the mixed soft tanking saying, hey, we just want
to build a roster, we don't care about our quarterback play.
Speaker 3 (42:30):
I thought you were going to force me to say
that Jets had a great draft and it's going to
change the roster and there's optimism. So I'm glad we're
not going that directly. Well, no, after after having oh
oh ROI and d ROI a couple of years ago
and that leading to absolutely nothing, I'm not I'm not
falling for the bait again. Do I think soft tanking
(42:51):
exists or will happen? I don't because of two I
think over we overanalyze, for example, a team like Arizona
who's an underdog in every single game that has really
(43:13):
no expectation of being decent, like that's just going to
be a bad football team all season, and we might
look and say, hey, the Cardinals are tanking, though it's
just a bad football team with a coach I think
is over his head. So I think that happens more
than teams actually soft tank. And then this would be
the second thing. And again I'm not a massive college
(43:36):
football guy, nor am I a big college football evaluator,
but from working with a group who specialized in college
football and college basketball betting professionally, what I will say
is a very kind of popular thought just discussed, not
necessarily actionable from a betting perspective, is now with nil
(43:57):
and the deals that are going on within college qbs
are not sitting in these programs and developing in the
same way that they once were, and that's leading to
a lot more uncertainty within the draft, especially entering the
first year, where college is now becoming kind of the
individual performance to gather the attention and capitalize on that,
(44:22):
and the transition into the NFL is becoming a lot
less predictable than it once was, again going back five, ten,
fifteen years, and so I don't have concrete data on that,
but thinking about it and what we're talking like, these
these guys are going to be going to bad football
teams in bad situations because they're going to be drafted
(44:43):
high in the first round. With the NFL evolving so much,
with young coaches coming in and new schemes and new systems,
there's now this very high risk boom or bust I
think with a lot of these guys that are being
drafted very hi. So I don't know if the if
the upsiding guarantee in the call it soft tank is
(45:08):
there like it used to be. It might be a
wild outlandish take. But no, no, no, that that's the
most reasonable thing I've heard about.
Speaker 2 (45:15):
Well, it's cam Ward. I remember last year I was
bullish on the Titans and listening to you now, I remember,
Oh yeah, that guy played, I believe, at three colleges
in three years. It was a medior crist Maybe you
went to Washington State for two whatever, and he struggled
last year. But you saying dable earlier is kind of
a bat signal to me to drill down a little bit.
I love Salah, We loved him with the Jets. He
(45:35):
was on track to do a pretty damn good thing.
And then of course Aaron Rodgers gets hurt.
Speaker 3 (45:39):
But damn circle this one in regards to the Titans.
The Titans play the Giants. I think Week three, oh I,
I mean it's there's obviously no line on the game
yet there'll be a point sped, but there's no total
and no team total. The team total for the Titans
is going to have to be thirty five and a half,
(46:01):
which will ever happen for me not to bet the
over in that game, like I promise you. Brian Daball
has been prepping offensively for that game already for five weeks.
In the back of his mind as he puts his
head on his pillow at night, that is going to
be just him again, going back to those great Bills
days where there were just some amazing opening scripts. He
(46:24):
is going to throw everything at that team. I think
it's an exciting offense, but I just you're not getting
me on a Titan.
Speaker 2 (46:29):
Sellar Chargers at Dolphins December twenty seventh. Mike McDaniel gonna
hang up fifty burger, Miami, give me fifty mine. He's
in that group of tankers. I'm sorry, I forgot the
maleigue Willis and like a bunch of guys that is
such a good angle. This new assistant coach is, so
I will be spending the next five hours.
Speaker 3 (46:49):
Well, we've got like again, there's so many of them,
and it's some of them left on good terms and promoted.
But there's a real thing to the vengeance and the
head to head matchups that happen week to week between
staffs and extra motivation. It's a tricky thing to keep
up with, but that's a very real thing when it.
Speaker 2 (47:10):
Comes to Adam Turnoff. This is a forty five powerful
minutes on gambling. It's good to have you back in
the fold. I assume you're going to be doing a
cross country tour now that you're you know, fit and
have all this time on your hands and wealthy. I
just do that in there. Thanks a lot, man. Have
a great, great summer in lovely Canada. I hear Auto
(47:31):
was amazing in June. Have you been there?
Speaker 3 (47:34):
Weirdly enough, I have actually been to Ottawa and June,
and I can't confirm. It is pretty absolutely beautiful. I
think World Cup in Vancouver is a lot more fun
at the moment. Unfortunately not there, but Canada is pretty
good in June, July and August.
Speaker 2 (47:47):
So I'm enjoying it all right, buddy, Thanks a lot,
Take it easy
Speaker 3 (47:50):
Thanks very much, Chat soon.
Host
Jason McIntyre
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