Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Yes, they facilitate transactions and are part of the ecosystem
that turns Iranian oil into money into repression. They will
be targeted. We are level setting with every country to
tell them our expectations. We know who they are, They
know who they are, so when the hammer of US
(00:23):
Treasury actions falls upon them, they will have no one
to blame but themselves.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
If you're listening to the forty seven Morning Update with
Ben ferguson.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Good Tuesday morning, nice have you with us in the
forty seven Morning Update, And we've got big news coming
out of Iran economic disaster as President Trump has announced
the economic d day against Iran and it's the most
crushing economic operation ever taken. So what is happening in
Iran right now and where the new threats coming from Iran?
(00:52):
At the President we break it all down for you
as there's a very good chance that Iran is just
about to crumble. Before we get to that, though, I
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(01:13):
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starts right now.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Story number one.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
A RAND supreme leader is under mounting pressure at this
hour over the war, as the regime's grip on the
Straight of Hormuz has weakened and cash is finally starting
to get tight, and the top political leaders are publicly
urging the Islamis in charge to find a way out
of the conflict. That is how dire the situation has
(03:09):
become in Iran, and they cannot fake it any longer now.
The latest phase of the conflict has seen more and
more ships quietly slipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with
nearly two hundred vessels sailing through the straight last week alone.
That is coming from data from the UK Maritime Trade
Operation Center. That is a massive number of ships compared
(03:31):
to what we've been seeing over the last several months.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Now.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
To put in perspective for you, the flow represents a
four hundred percent spike in the last two weeks, with
maritime analysts noting that the traffic finding safe passage that
has been aided by US Navy escorts effectively means Iran
has lost partial control of the strait, and while more
(03:55):
ships and oil are getting out, Iran's own oil exports
have dropped to new or zero under the renewed American
blockade on its ports and President Trump's economic D Day measures,
as he described them. I'm going to have more on
those D Day measures in a moment, but before we
get to that, I also want you to hear what
the President had to say in the Oval Office when
(04:18):
he was being asked questions about what he could still
do with dealing with Iran researcher.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
He says that we could see the most impactful sanctions
on Iran this week. When will they come and what
else could be sanctioned on Ran?
Speaker 4 (04:31):
Well, we have things that we could sanction. We have
very draconian sanctions, and we'll see what happens. Right now,
the strait is open. We a lot of boats are
coming through. People aren't reporting that, and that may slow
down a little bit at some point, but right now
a lot of boats are coming through. The naval blockade
has been extremely effective zero I mean literally while it's up,
(04:55):
and that's been for quite a while, you know, except
for a couple of little pauses where we opened it
with a deal, but the deal didn't termine, you know,
the deal didn't turn out to be what they said,
you know, when they tell us one thing and they
do another. But the blockade has been one hundred percent successful.
No boats have gotten into Iran, but they are getting
in for other places. But we'll see. We're going to
(05:16):
see what happens. It'll either be extremely good and oil
prices are going to drop like a rock, or will
continue to do exactly what we're doing. You know, they
were talking about three hundred and fifty dollars a barrel,
and it's today eighty four eighty five, and we are
getting a lot of oil out. But the other thing
that's happened is people have found other alternatives which they
(05:39):
never thought about Texas, Alaska, Louisiana and other places. In addition,
a lot of pipelines, record numbers of pipelines are being built,
So I think the Hormost Strait's not going to be
quite as important as.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
It was in the best Now this comes as President
Trump announced economic d day against Iran. It was the
most crushing economic operation is he just pride, ever taken.
And he announced that the US not only is targeting
Iran and its allies with the crushing economic operation that
he says we've ever taken against any country. He said, quote,
(06:12):
no one has given the Islamic Republic of Iran a
greater opportunity to make a deal than me. Tragically, for them,
they have failed to take it. Therefore, I'm announcing the
most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country. This
will be economic warfare and isolation on an unprecedented scale. Now,
Trump said Iran is hanging on by a thread, and
(06:34):
based on the data, he's absolutely right, and it is
a direct result of the US military strikes that have
devastated the country's Navy, air force, and military infrastructure. The
president also declared that any country that allows its financial institutions,
it's businesses, it's airports, or government entities to provide any
type of lifeline to Iran will itself face tremendous economic consequences.
(07:00):
Swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front companies.
It all needs to stop now, the President said, you
know who you are. That was obviously a shot across
the bow of any country that's trying to help Iran. Now, Trump,
like in the operation to the Economic d Day, that
will require our allies to stand with the United States
(07:22):
of America to isolate and defeat the Iranian threat.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
Now.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
President Trump's declaration also comes after the sixty day period
for negotiations to end the war. It was established under
an interim peace deal signed in June and expired on
Monday without a breakthrough. Then on Tuesday, the President indicated
that no further talks with the regime or plan, and
the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait
of Hormuz remains in full force and effect, quote unquote.
(07:51):
These maniacs on the ropes, and these historic measures will
cripple them and their ability to project terror worldwide. The
President can continued, saying, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.
Thank you for your attention to this matter. Now, if
you think the present's wrong, well look at the facts.
Because Iran's currency is plummeted to new lows on Monday,
(08:14):
as the US is said to announce the further sanctions
on the Islamic Republic, whose citizens are now rushing to
exchange lines to save their cash. The real dropped to
two point zero two million to one US dollar when
the currency markets opened on Monday, meaning the currency is
now worth about half of what it was at the
(08:35):
start of the year. That is not a good thing
if you live in Iran. The continued plunge during nearly
six months of war has led Iranians in Tehran to
sprint for the exchange markets in hopes of getting US bills.
There is no hope for a deal and peace, is
what a seventy three year old said to the Associated
Press as he waited an exchange line in downtown Tehran.
(08:57):
He said Iran's real has been in a free fall
since last November due to fears and years of Western
sanctions and persistently high inflation, all factors that have only
gotten worse during the war. Now, while i RAN's official
central bank rate stands at one point five million rail
to the dollar, the market rate is what the average
(09:17):
iraneum pays. President Trump's disseminated Iran's economy to a point
where the rail has now been weaker and inflation has
rarely been higher. Is how US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant
said in an opinion piece in the Financial Times on Sunday,
saying the regime's final refuge now lies and the self
(09:37):
deception of fearful nations that still believe accommodating aggression can
secure a durable piece. He went on to add, now
bestn't warned that the additional financial penalties will come and
they will effectively collapse the regime, With Trump echoing the
same threat on social media, Iran is completely collapsing with
(09:58):
the United Air of Emirates. We also have even more
breaking news on this, and this is where you know
when the present speaks, the world listens. The UAE, for
the first time in years, is now cutting off trade
with Iran. That means they're nixing billions and billions of
dollars and it could have a crippling effect on Tehran,
(10:19):
a US ally in the Middle East. They're now saying
we stand with you and the UAE, which serves as
Terran's largest supplier of goods, they have now quote suspended
all trade over the weekend, nixing at least six billion
in cash that went to regime from exports as well
as access to vital supplies from the outside world. Dubai,
(10:41):
the UAE's thriving commercial pub is by far Rand's largest
supplier of goods. The UAE's government finally just got fed
up with Iran following their repeated missile attacks that have
triggered not only evacuations for the first time during the war,
but also had a negative impact on trade for the
country as well as tourism. The move not only threatens
(11:03):
the twenty one point three billion trade relation between the
two nations, but it also leaves Iran without its primary
way to collect US dollars. That is what a retired
US general and former Assistant Secretary of State said in
an interview to the Post. If the imiordis seize trade
and block dollar flows, it could have a crippling effect
on the Iranian economy. Dubai essentially serves as Iran's window
(11:27):
to the world after years of being slapped by Western sanctions,
with traders buying and re exporting consumer goods as well
as food and industrial equipment to Iran. And yeah, that
was profitable for the UAE, but they don't want to
lose their ally with the US. Even more shocking about
this move by the UAE just to put in comparison.
(11:50):
At one point, the two nations had strengthened their economic
cooperation and only it was just two years ago. In
twenty twenty four, the UAE was surpassing China is Iran's
most vital trading partner. I Ran import about fourteen point
eight billion worth of goods from the UAE during the
first ten months of the twenty twenty five fiscal year.
(12:13):
That accounts for thirty percent of its total imports. According
to the two countries trade data, i Ran imported about
fourteen billion worth of goods from the UAE during the
first ten months of twenty twenty five, and that means
that has all disappeared now now. Duvi's ports are the
primary way Iran gets goods like phones, computers, tobacco and nuts. Meanwhile,
(12:36):
i Ran exports around six point five billion worth It
goes to the UAE during the same fiscal period nearly
fifteen percent of its non oil exports. And most notably,
Iran also depended on the UAE for seventy percent of
its fuel oil exports, making UAE its largest market for
(12:57):
their product. Refined oil is also come back in the
opposite direction from Dubai as well, with gasoline and diesel
imports from the UE helping to offset iran supply deficit.
Now what does this actually mean, Well, it's pretty simple.
This is a massive blow and it leaves Iran with
fewer means to make money and import goods, and its
(13:19):
economy is now continuing to plummet under the strain of
the US sanctions. In many ways, the embargo being put
on by the UAE is actually even more significant than
the embargo being put on by the United States. The
strain comes as the Treasury Secretary announcing the start of
Operation Economic Outcast, calling on all nations to follow the
(13:42):
UAE's lead and to cut off all business with Iran.
Bessen said, quote. The President is making phone calls to
world leaders as we speak, with specific requests to cease
their interactions with the regime. We are already seeing results.
So it's clear President United States of America flinching, and
it's clear now that Iran is teetering on total economic collapse,
(14:06):
which is exactly what the President said he was wanting
to do.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Thank you for listening to the forty seven Morning Update
with Ben Ferguson. Please make sure you hit subscribe wherever
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in depth news, also subscribe to the Ben Ferguson podcast,
and we will see you back here tomorrow