July 15, 2026 • 14 mins
1. U.S. Inflation Report and Economic Performance
- A recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing a significant decline in inflation.
- Economists surveyed by Bloomberg incorrectly predicted the inflation outcome.
- Inflation fell by 0.4% month-over-month, which the speaker describes as the largest monthly decline in several years.
- Lower gasoline and energy prices are presented as the primary factors behind the improvement.
- Financial markets reacted positively, with:
- Stocks rising.
- Treasury yields falling.
- Increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may avoid additional interest rate hikes.
- Mainstream media and economists are biased against Trump and intentionally emphasize negative economic news while ignoring positive developments.
Tone: Highly partisan and supportive of Trump. The discussion blends economic data with political interpretation and criticism of media organizations and economists.
2. Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
- Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through the strait.
- Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
- Alleged U.S. military strikes on Iranian military infrastructure.
- Iranian missile and drone activities threatening shipping and regional facilities.
- Concerns about:
- Disruptions to maritime trade.
- Rising oil prices.
- Broader regional conflict.
- Discussion of a proposed U.S. transit fee for ships using the Strait of Hormuz that the speaker says President Trump later replaced with trade and investment agreements with Gulf nations.
- References to:
- A blockade on Iranian shipping.
- Additional military operations.
- Trump's threats to target Iranian power plants and bridges unless Iran negotiates.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
But we're going to hit them very hard tonight, We're
going to hit him very hard. Tomorrow night, we're going
to hit him very hard the night after. And then
next week it gets really bad for them because next
week comes the power plants. Next week comes to the bridges.
We're going to knock out all their power plants. We're
going to knock out all their bridges unless they get
(00:21):
to the table and negotiate.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
You're listening to the forty seven Morning Update with Ben ferguson.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Good Wednesday morning. Nice to have you with us on
the forty seven Morning Update, and we've got two big
stories for you. First up, the media and the economists. Yeah,
they got it wrong. Inflation numbers are out and it
was a big drop in fact, the biggest drop in
inflation in six years. So where is it now and
how did the economists and everyone else get it wrong?
(00:48):
Could it be it's just because they hate Donald Trump.
We'll explain it to you. Also, the President has a
major update on the straight of war moves and it
now means that those tolls that were promised that we're
going to be paid they may be disappearing because of
a new deal. It's the forty seven Morning Update and
it starts right.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Now, story number one.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
All sixty seven economists got Donald Trump's inflation report wrong.
That's right, America. They want you to believe the economy
is terrible. But real inflation it just dropped by zero
point four percent. That is the biggest drop in six years.
Bloomberg surveyed sixty seven economists, and sixty seven of those economists,
(01:32):
like I said, got it wrong. Now, the latest consumer
price index shows that inflation cooled much more than the
analysts had expected. Consumer price is following zero point four
percent from the previous month. Again, that is the largest
monthly declined since the early months of the COVID nineteen pandemic. Now,
(01:53):
while the annual inflation rate slowed also to three point
five down from four point two in May. Of US
had generally expected inflation to well somewhat cool, but not
this much and certainly not this fast. Now. The financial
markets they reacted quickly. Stocks moved higher, Treasury yields fell,
(02:14):
and investors increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could leave
interest rates unchanged in the near term because inflation came
in cooler than forecasted by all. The quote unquote experts. Now,
much of the improvement came from lower energy costs. Gasoline
prices dropped sharply during June, contributing significantly to the overall
(02:36):
decline in inflation. And while lower fuel prices were the
biggest driver, the report also showed that core inflation now
that includes food and energy, was essentially flat for the
month and slow to two point six percent over the
past year. That's not just good news. That is great
news for all Americans. As for President Trump, this report
(02:57):
is an opportunity for him to argue that the economy
is moving in the right direction under his administration. And
throughout the year, he had maintained that inflation would come
down while economic growth remain resilient, and today's report supports
the view that inflation ease more than many forecasters had anticipated.
(03:17):
You got to ask yourself the question, is it because
the media and the economists they hate President Trump and
they want him to have a big loss in the
midterm elections. That's why they keep preaching doom and gloom.
Even though I'll say it again, this is the biggest
inflation drop in six years. Now, what this also means,
and it's also very important for you to understand that
(03:39):
this report represents meaningful progress compared with the elevated inflation
reading scene earlier this year. When you have lower monthly inflation,
that can translate into less pressure on household budgets, and
it also reduces the need for additional interest rate increases
if the trend continued. The bottom line is this today's
(03:59):
FLA report came in much better than expected. That's why
the media is not going to be talking about it.
And if it was a bad report, it would have
been leading the news on every channel, but now they
don't want you to know this Now the markets they
also welcome the news. It also strengthened the argument that
inflation pressures ease significantly during June could be a real
(04:24):
sign of what's to come. Now, whether this marks the
beginning of a lasting trend, it's going to depend on
the future reports. It's going to depend on energy prices
and broader economic conditions. But one thing is for sure.
Today's data shows that were undeniably stronger as a country
than all the economists talking to Bloomberg had anticipated. And
(04:46):
the reason why is because President Donald Trump continues to
push policies that put the American worker ahead of everyone else.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Next story number two.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
The Strain Offoor Moves remains one of the mostategically important
waterways on Earth. That's why we're talking about it so much.
As I've said before, about one fifth of the world's
oil supply normally passes through the shipping lane each and
every day. President Donald Trump has continued now to escalate
pressure on Iran while also adjusting parts of his strategy,
(05:21):
and today Trump said no country should be charging ships
a fee to pass through the Strain of Wor Moves,
backing away from that earlier proposal for a US imposed
transit fee.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Now.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
I'm going to have more on that in a moment.
But the military situation remains extremely tense. The United States
has continued intense strikes against the Iranian military targets after
accusing Tehran of violating previous understandings and threatening shipping throughout
the Persian Gulf. Iranian forces have also responded with missile
(05:56):
and drone attacks targeting Gulf region facilities and maritime traffic,
keeping the entire region well on edge. Now. One of
the biggest concerns right now is still very much commercial shipping.
Major shipping companies are continuing to monitor the situation carefully,
and vessel traffic through the strait has slowed significantly. Why
(06:19):
Because the insurers and the cargo companies and the tanker
operators are now weighing the real growing risk from Iran.
Every reduction in shipping raises concerns about higher energy prices
and potential supply disruptions if the conflict worsens. Meanwhile, Iran's
political leadership is also signaling that it intends to maintain
(06:41):
quote unquote their pressure. According to new reports, lawmakers in
Tehran are advancing legislation related to Iranian's control over the
Strait of Hormuz. That is a move that analysts believe
is intended to both strengthen Iran's negotiating position and also
demonstrate resolve to mess sickly and send a clear message
(07:01):
of the US and the Middle East that they're not
done fighting now. From Washington, the Trump administration is continuing
to argue that freedom of navigation must be protected and
that Iran cannot be allowed to threaten one of the
world's most important maritime choke points. Now. Military analysts also
say the United States now faces two well simultaneous objectives.
(07:25):
Number One, protect international shipping, and then number two, to
prevent the conflict from expanding into a broader regional war
involving additional countries that Iran would love to bring into
the mix. Now these goals are becoming increasingly difficult. Why
because Iran continues to act more and more erratic each
(07:45):
and every day. Now the financial markets are also watching
every development closely, and this does have an impact on
you and your family's budget. Oil prices have climbed sharply
amid the renewed fears of supply disruptions, and investors try
to determine whether this becomes a prolonged confrontation or whether
diplomacy can eventually reduce tensions. Even rumors surrounding the Strait
(08:09):
of Hormus can move global markets instantly because of its
enormous importance to international energy. Now, President Trump has also
made it clear that he believes America's role in protecting
international shipping has come at significant costs in the United
States of America, and that's why he talked about having
a proposed transit fee. Well, let's talk about what has
(08:32):
happened with that in the last twenty four hours now.
President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday afternoon that he has
now decided to replace his proposed twenty percent reimbursement fee
on cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz with trade
and investment deals involving Gulf States, while maintaining a blockade
on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports or carrying
(08:56):
Iranian cargo that would include their oil. Quote is falling
like never before, thanks to the awesome power of the
United States military, Trump said on true Social He credited
the Secretary of War Pete Headseth, the Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs, and the US Central Command, and American service
members for the victory. Trump said the Strata Ramus is
(09:16):
open to all ships traffic except for Iran, blaming Tehran
saying they're lying, violent and malicious leadership for placing the
country and a path towards quote total destruction. The President saying,
we will therefore have a full blockade, but only on
ships coming to and from Iranian ports or carrying anything
(09:39):
that has to do with Iranian cargo. And the President
announced then that he would replace that twenty percent fee
that he proposed Monday to reimburse the United States for
protecting international shipping through the Waterway with something different, saying, quote,
based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I've
decided to replace the twenty percent United States reimbursement fee
(10:02):
with trade and investment deals that the various Golf States
will be making into the United States of America. The
President also described the planned investment as massive and said
they would also be extraordinarily good for the Gulf States
and their futures as well. As everyone is aware, we
have the largest dollar investment into the United States of
(10:25):
any country in history, but these new investments will make
the number even larger, and we will see factories, plants,
and equipment pour into the United States at historic levels,
which will then create additional millions of high paying American jobs.
The president said, America's winning again, winning like never before.
(10:46):
The days of Iran killing hundreds of thousands of people,
including fifty two thousand protesters, are over, and most importantly,
Iran will never have a nuclear weapon now. Trump's announcement
also came after US forces carried out a five hour
mission targeting Iranian coastal defense systems, missile and drone sites,
(11:07):
and maritime capabilities to further degrade Iran's ability to attack
commercial shipping. US Central Command said the strikes hit military
targets across Iran, including many areas that were very close
to where the shipping channel is. Now, Trump had declared
the ceasefire over and said the United States would take
over the Strait of horm Moves and become its guardian.
(11:30):
Trump first announced that twenty percent reimbursement on Monday, declaring
that the United States and the Straight of hor Moves
would be open and it will remain open with or
without Iran. And that is when he said the United
States was reinstating that Iranian blockade, which would only stop
Iran ships or customers from entering or leaving, while all
(11:51):
other countries would have fair and open use of the strait.
Trump said the United States would expect to be reimbursed
for protecting international shipping at that rate of twenty percent
on all cargo ships. Now, the President has clearly changed that.
Now here's what's happened. When it comes to the price
of that pump. Oil prices have risen four percent in
early trading on Monday. Going into Tuesday. Goldman Sachs came
(12:14):
out and warned that the renewed escalation would increase short
term risk of higher prices by further disrupting golf exports.
And that is exactly why the President's made it clear
that in America, we have to continue to drill, baby, drill.
One thing is for sure, the President is being very
proactive right now making sure that Iran doesn't hold the
(12:36):
world hostage. And also the President says the US will
knock out Iran's power plants and bridges next week unless
the regime makes a deal. Take a listen to what
the President had to say in his own words, strikes
were seen this week against Iran will expand are you
considering hitting energy targets or other locations inside of land.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
I'll save the energy targets for last, but ultimately we'll
hit energy targets. Yeah, but we're going to hit them
very hard. Tonight, We're going to hit him very hard.
Tomorrow night, we're gonna hit him very hard the night after.
And then next week it gets really bad for them
because next week comes the UH power plants. Next week
(13:20):
comes the bridges. We're going to knock out all their
power plants. We're going to knock out all the bridges
unless they get to the table and negotiate. Do you
believe the Iranians are serious about making a deal. I
think they have no choice.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Why haven't they yet?
Speaker 1 (13:33):
I think if I didn't do the way I'm doing,
they would never make a deal.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
So there's the President, in his own word, saying that
next week the US will knock out o Rans, power
plans and bridges unless the regime makes a deal. We'll
obviously keep you updated on all of this.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Thank you for listening to the forty seven Morning Update
with Ben Ferguson. Please make sure you hit subscribe wherever
you're listening to this podcast right now and for more
in depth news, also subscribe to the Ben Ferguson podcast
and we will see you back here tomorrow
But we're going to hit them very hard tonight, We're
going to hit him very hard. Tomorrow night, we're going
to hit him very hard the night after. And then
next week it gets really bad for them because next
week comes the power plants. Next week comes to the bridges.
We're going to knock out all their power plants. We're
going to knock out all their bridges unless they get
(00:21):
to the table and negotiate.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
You're listening to the forty seven Morning Update with Ben ferguson.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Good Wednesday morning. Nice to have you with us on
the forty seven Morning Update, and we've got two big
stories for you. First up, the media and the economists. Yeah,
they got it wrong. Inflation numbers are out and it
was a big drop in fact, the biggest drop in
inflation in six years. So where is it now and
how did the economists and everyone else get it wrong?
(00:48):
Could it be it's just because they hate Donald Trump.
We'll explain it to you. Also, the President has a
major update on the straight of war moves and it
now means that those tolls that were promised that we're
going to be paid they may be disappearing because of
a new deal. It's the forty seven Morning Update and
it starts right.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Now, story number one.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
All sixty seven economists got Donald Trump's inflation report wrong.
That's right, America. They want you to believe the economy
is terrible. But real inflation it just dropped by zero
point four percent. That is the biggest drop in six years.
Bloomberg surveyed sixty seven economists, and sixty seven of those economists,
(01:32):
like I said, got it wrong. Now, the latest consumer
price index shows that inflation cooled much more than the
analysts had expected. Consumer price is following zero point four
percent from the previous month. Again, that is the largest
monthly declined since the early months of the COVID nineteen pandemic. Now,
(01:53):
while the annual inflation rate slowed also to three point
five down from four point two in May. Of US
had generally expected inflation to well somewhat cool, but not
this much and certainly not this fast. Now. The financial
markets they reacted quickly. Stocks moved higher, Treasury yields fell,
(02:14):
and investors increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could leave
interest rates unchanged in the near term because inflation came
in cooler than forecasted by all. The quote unquote experts. Now,
much of the improvement came from lower energy costs. Gasoline
prices dropped sharply during June, contributing significantly to the overall
(02:36):
decline in inflation. And while lower fuel prices were the
biggest driver, the report also showed that core inflation now
that includes food and energy, was essentially flat for the
month and slow to two point six percent over the
past year. That's not just good news. That is great
news for all Americans. As for President Trump, this report
(02:57):
is an opportunity for him to argue that the economy
is moving in the right direction under his administration. And
throughout the year, he had maintained that inflation would come
down while economic growth remain resilient, and today's report supports
the view that inflation ease more than many forecasters had anticipated.
(03:17):
You got to ask yourself the question, is it because
the media and the economists they hate President Trump and
they want him to have a big loss in the
midterm elections. That's why they keep preaching doom and gloom.
Even though I'll say it again, this is the biggest
inflation drop in six years. Now, what this also means,
and it's also very important for you to understand that
(03:39):
this report represents meaningful progress compared with the elevated inflation
reading scene earlier this year. When you have lower monthly inflation,
that can translate into less pressure on household budgets, and
it also reduces the need for additional interest rate increases
if the trend continued. The bottom line is this today's
(03:59):
FLA report came in much better than expected. That's why
the media is not going to be talking about it.
And if it was a bad report, it would have
been leading the news on every channel, but now they
don't want you to know this Now the markets they
also welcome the news. It also strengthened the argument that
inflation pressures ease significantly during June could be a real
(04:24):
sign of what's to come. Now, whether this marks the
beginning of a lasting trend, it's going to depend on
the future reports. It's going to depend on energy prices
and broader economic conditions. But one thing is for sure.
Today's data shows that were undeniably stronger as a country
than all the economists talking to Bloomberg had anticipated. And
(04:46):
the reason why is because President Donald Trump continues to
push policies that put the American worker ahead of everyone else.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Next story number two.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
The Strain Offoor Moves remains one of the mostategically important
waterways on Earth. That's why we're talking about it so much.
As I've said before, about one fifth of the world's
oil supply normally passes through the shipping lane each and
every day. President Donald Trump has continued now to escalate
pressure on Iran while also adjusting parts of his strategy,
(05:21):
and today Trump said no country should be charging ships
a fee to pass through the Strain of Wor Moves,
backing away from that earlier proposal for a US imposed
transit fee.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Now.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
I'm going to have more on that in a moment.
But the military situation remains extremely tense. The United States
has continued intense strikes against the Iranian military targets after
accusing Tehran of violating previous understandings and threatening shipping throughout
the Persian Gulf. Iranian forces have also responded with missile
(05:56):
and drone attacks targeting Gulf region facilities and maritime traffic,
keeping the entire region well on edge. Now. One of
the biggest concerns right now is still very much commercial shipping.
Major shipping companies are continuing to monitor the situation carefully,
and vessel traffic through the strait has slowed significantly. Why
(06:19):
Because the insurers and the cargo companies and the tanker
operators are now weighing the real growing risk from Iran.
Every reduction in shipping raises concerns about higher energy prices
and potential supply disruptions if the conflict worsens. Meanwhile, Iran's
political leadership is also signaling that it intends to maintain
(06:41):
quote unquote their pressure. According to new reports, lawmakers in
Tehran are advancing legislation related to Iranian's control over the
Strait of Hormuz. That is a move that analysts believe
is intended to both strengthen Iran's negotiating position and also
demonstrate resolve to mess sickly and send a clear message
(07:01):
of the US and the Middle East that they're not
done fighting now. From Washington, the Trump administration is continuing
to argue that freedom of navigation must be protected and
that Iran cannot be allowed to threaten one of the
world's most important maritime choke points. Now. Military analysts also
say the United States now faces two well simultaneous objectives.
(07:25):
Number One, protect international shipping, and then number two, to
prevent the conflict from expanding into a broader regional war
involving additional countries that Iran would love to bring into
the mix. Now these goals are becoming increasingly difficult. Why
because Iran continues to act more and more erratic each
(07:45):
and every day. Now the financial markets are also watching
every development closely, and this does have an impact on
you and your family's budget. Oil prices have climbed sharply
amid the renewed fears of supply disruptions, and investors try
to determine whether this becomes a prolonged confrontation or whether
diplomacy can eventually reduce tensions. Even rumors surrounding the Strait
(08:09):
of Hormus can move global markets instantly because of its
enormous importance to international energy. Now, President Trump has also
made it clear that he believes America's role in protecting
international shipping has come at significant costs in the United
States of America, and that's why he talked about having
a proposed transit fee. Well, let's talk about what has
(08:32):
happened with that in the last twenty four hours now.
President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday afternoon that he has
now decided to replace his proposed twenty percent reimbursement fee
on cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz with trade
and investment deals involving Gulf States, while maintaining a blockade
on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports or carrying
(08:56):
Iranian cargo that would include their oil. Quote is falling
like never before, thanks to the awesome power of the
United States military, Trump said on true Social He credited
the Secretary of War Pete Headseth, the Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs, and the US Central Command, and American service
members for the victory. Trump said the Strata Ramus is
(09:16):
open to all ships traffic except for Iran, blaming Tehran
saying they're lying, violent and malicious leadership for placing the
country and a path towards quote total destruction. The President saying,
we will therefore have a full blockade, but only on
ships coming to and from Iranian ports or carrying anything
(09:39):
that has to do with Iranian cargo. And the President
announced then that he would replace that twenty percent fee
that he proposed Monday to reimburse the United States for
protecting international shipping through the Waterway with something different, saying, quote,
based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I've
decided to replace the twenty percent United States reimbursement fee
(10:02):
with trade and investment deals that the various Golf States
will be making into the United States of America. The
President also described the planned investment as massive and said
they would also be extraordinarily good for the Gulf States
and their futures as well. As everyone is aware, we
have the largest dollar investment into the United States of
(10:25):
any country in history, but these new investments will make
the number even larger, and we will see factories, plants,
and equipment pour into the United States at historic levels,
which will then create additional millions of high paying American jobs.
The president said, America's winning again, winning like never before.
(10:46):
The days of Iran killing hundreds of thousands of people,
including fifty two thousand protesters, are over, and most importantly,
Iran will never have a nuclear weapon now. Trump's announcement
also came after US forces carried out a five hour
mission targeting Iranian coastal defense systems, missile and drone sites,
(11:07):
and maritime capabilities to further degrade Iran's ability to attack
commercial shipping. US Central Command said the strikes hit military
targets across Iran, including many areas that were very close
to where the shipping channel is. Now, Trump had declared
the ceasefire over and said the United States would take
over the Strait of horm Moves and become its guardian.
(11:30):
Trump first announced that twenty percent reimbursement on Monday, declaring
that the United States and the Straight of hor Moves
would be open and it will remain open with or
without Iran. And that is when he said the United
States was reinstating that Iranian blockade, which would only stop
Iran ships or customers from entering or leaving, while all
(11:51):
other countries would have fair and open use of the strait.
Trump said the United States would expect to be reimbursed
for protecting international shipping at that rate of twenty percent
on all cargo ships. Now, the President has clearly changed that.
Now here's what's happened. When it comes to the price
of that pump. Oil prices have risen four percent in
early trading on Monday. Going into Tuesday. Goldman Sachs came
(12:14):
out and warned that the renewed escalation would increase short
term risk of higher prices by further disrupting golf exports.
And that is exactly why the President's made it clear
that in America, we have to continue to drill, baby, drill.
One thing is for sure, the President is being very
proactive right now making sure that Iran doesn't hold the
(12:36):
world hostage. And also the President says the US will
knock out Iran's power plants and bridges next week unless
the regime makes a deal. Take a listen to what
the President had to say in his own words, strikes
were seen this week against Iran will expand are you
considering hitting energy targets or other locations inside of land.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
I'll save the energy targets for last, but ultimately we'll
hit energy targets. Yeah, but we're going to hit them
very hard. Tonight, We're going to hit him very hard.
Tomorrow night, we're gonna hit him very hard the night after.
And then next week it gets really bad for them
because next week comes the UH power plants. Next week
(13:20):
comes the bridges. We're going to knock out all their
power plants. We're going to knock out all the bridges
unless they get to the table and negotiate. Do you
believe the Iranians are serious about making a deal. I
think they have no choice.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Why haven't they yet?
Speaker 1 (13:33):
I think if I didn't do the way I'm doing,
they would never make a deal.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
So there's the President, in his own word, saying that
next week the US will knock out o Rans, power
plans and bridges unless the regime makes a deal. We'll
obviously keep you updated on all of this.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Thank you for listening to the forty seven Morning Update
with Ben Ferguson. Please make sure you hit subscribe wherever
you're listening to this podcast right now and for more
in depth news, also subscribe to the Ben Ferguson podcast
and we will see you back here tomorrow
Host
Ben Ferguson
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