April 2, 2026 • 48 mins
Hosts Joe Maddon and Tom Verducci dive into the use of the ABS system, which has already had a tremendous impact. How does Joe think the use of the system changes as the game moves forward? Tom reveals where the most success comes from with challenges. How does this affect catchers and their influence on pitching?
The Yankees have had an amazing start to the season. Tom notes Shohei Ohtani's first start of the year. Plus, is there any advantage to signing young players to big deals? Tom shows how the current line of thinking is playing out.
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
The Book of Joe podcast is a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Hey Aaron, welcome back.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
It's the Book of Joe Podcast with me, Tom Berducci
and of course Joe Madden and Joe. We've entered a new,
a brave, new world in baseball these days with head
tapping and challenging. Of course, it's the dawn of the
ABS challenge system. I'll get into the numbers in a minute,
but first I want to get your initial takes. We
(00:38):
knew this was coming, we saw it a little bit
in spring training the last couple of years. One week
into the great ABS era. What's your interpretation of what
we're watching?
Speaker 3 (00:49):
Well, I like the expedient component of it.
Speaker 4 (00:51):
I mean, obviously as soon as they tap part of
steps out looks up and almost immediately the correct call
shows up. So from that perspective, I'm okay with that. Also, again,
I can't see every every game. I'm watching replay videos
and that kind of stuff, but it seems like a
lot of it's pertinent too. I Mean there's been some
really big turnarounds which we've always known, like in a dugout,
(01:15):
managing a game, being part of a season, you know,
there's the game's over and you go through the post mortem,
and obviously you think, ah my god, how about that
call if it's done the other way something, you know,
it's the you know, the outcome not even outcome bias,
it's just actually outcome differential. It's just been switched. So yeah,
I'm so far. I think I've been a fan of it.
(01:36):
You know, the point of there's also been a pointment
of reading about this still that the somehow the catching
framing is still impactful, that we're talking about Wells with
the Yankees and Raley with the Mariners, how they've been
very good at it, and the fact that that could
still be influential in regarding the the the the challenge
(01:58):
system in the way it's utilized and how often it's utilized,
and it benefits obviously the team that has the catchers
that are able to do this. So you probably could
extrapolate that in a bit further. I just didn't notice that.
So overall from experienced perspective, I think it's good. And
you know, I almost believe that as you play it forward,
(02:19):
and I think you still want to give catchers the
ability to be impactun I still think you want to
have umpires, give the umpires the ability to just be
umpires and call a game and just maybe be interfered
with occasionally, so you know, they're still going to be clamoring.
I think maybe for the every pitch being called. But
I think if they continue along this path, the suspense also,
(02:40):
I think adds to the drama of the day. So
as right now, I think maybe the case is being
made for what they're doing and to continue what they're
doing and not expand upon it.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
That's my first take.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Yeah, I would agree with you one hundred percent on
all of that. I think on the whole that the
rollout here has been really seamless. And you know, I
say rollout. It's on the major league level. We've seen
in the minor leagues for a good four or five years,
so a lot of guys have played with it already
and the kinks have been worked out.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
I mean, it's for a new system here. You're absolutely right.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
The expediency is very impressive. It's about fifteen to sixteen
seconds from challenge to results, so it's not holding up
the game. I love the fact that you said there's suspense.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
I like that.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
I like the fact that their strategy involved. You have
to understand when to challenge when not to challenge. That's
a strategic element that's been introduced. And the fan engagement
is something that you just can't ignore. I mean, we're
here playing baseball for the good of the fans and
to enjoy the games. And I think that you can
you can tell they dig finding out with the rest
of the world, whether that pitches a ball or a strike.
(03:43):
I mean, it's it's a graphic that's easily understood, it's quick,
so I think people are on board with that on
both players and fans. All good there as far as
the numbers go. Fifty five percent success overturn rate, which
is kind of dubtails with what we've seen in the
minor leagues. It's a little bit more than the coin flip,
which I guess speaks to how good these umpires are,
(04:05):
right that in the course of a game, and there's
I don't know how many pitches there are three hundred
and seventy so pitches that really only a couple.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Are getting overturned in the course of a game.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
So I think it points out, especially when you think about,
you know, how good this stuff is in today's game
in terms of velocity and spin and movement and how
good these umpires are because now they really have to
call that, you know, technology driven strike zone, not their
own strike zone and not based on count pitchers. Uh,
(04:36):
there's a lot of teams, so you know, Joe, we're
telling their pitchers, no, don't challenge you guys. You know
you're farther away from the plate, you're emotionally involved, your
head's moving and it shows.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
And we saw this in the minor leagues as well.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
They're not good at forty two percent success rate challenging pitches,
whereas the catchers are right fifty nine percent and hitters
a little bit below that at fifty two percent. As
far as catching, Joe and I want to get your
take on this, you mentioned the framing aspect. I think
framing is still important because obviously we just talked about this.
Not every pitch is going to get challenged, but you
(05:07):
do have the backstop now, no pun intended to change
challenge a pitch. But what I see here so far
early on, the younger catchers have not been as good
in the challenge success rate as a veteran pitchers. I
actually think understanding the strike zone and knowing when to
challenge have added to the skill set of catchers like
(05:31):
Edgar Quero of the Chicago White Sox, young catcher, he's
challenged more than anybody. He's challenged ten times, he's been
wrong six times. Pedro Pages of the Cardinals, he's one
in four in challenges. Liam Hicks to the Marlins one
and four and challenges. So I think the idea of
the catcher knowing the strike zone and then on top
(05:53):
of that knowing when to challenge, I think comes with experience.
It's just a matter of you know, reps at seeing
what the strike zone is, understanding what it is. What's
your take on catchers and how now they can influence,
if not a game, certainly the leverage of accounts.
Speaker 4 (06:09):
Yeah, no argument there. I would believe that to be true.
There's a confidence level too. There might be certain pitches.
How many pitches you may know this have not been
challenged that should have been challenged?
Speaker 3 (06:19):
Also? Is that is that a number?
Speaker 2 (06:20):
That is a number.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
I'll just give you an example here because I saw
that the Texas Rangers catchers have only made one challenge
in the first week of the season.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
They're all in one challenges.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
So look, how many pitches have been out of the
strike zone or in the strike zone that have been
called balls that they should have challenged. And that's nine
and I think that's pretty close to percentage, you know,
fifteen percent maybe that pitches that are missed or called
in course of a game, you're going to have. I
don't know how many fourteen to fifteen pitches is high
(06:55):
for an umpire to miss, but let's say it's a dozen.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
Maybe a third of those get challenged.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
So yes, the vast majority of miss calls are not
going to be challenged. Let me get your take on this, Joe.
I don't think teams are challenging enough. Let me put
it to you that way. I think managers have, you know,
embedded in the brains of their players so deeply.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Let's save our challenges.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
Let's make sure we have challenges for late in the
game that I think they're a little hesitant. I would
say I would empower my players, catchers, and especially my hitters,
especially my good hitters. If you feel convicted, if your
gut reaction at that moment acrosses the plate is man,
that's not a strike challenge. I want to I don't
think you have to save challenges like in football and basketball,
(07:43):
where teams go home losing games with challenges in their pockets.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Correct, not every game is decided in the ninth inning.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
In fact, very few are so My good hitters, the Bregman's,
the Sotos, the Harpers, these guys, I want to empower them.
You know they can flip account. But the litmus test
for me is gut feeling. I mean, you gotta challenge,
you gotta trust your gut here as a catcher, and
I would look for more challenges as we go along.
Speaker 4 (08:08):
Well, just to go back to your original point, I mean,
I think it's the veteran catcher probably has more confidence
in this moment, maybe the younger guy not so much.
And meaning you're not worried about being wrong when you're
when you're a confident player. I think part of confidence
is not being concerned with answering questions if it doesn't
turn out well and that, and I think the experience
(08:30):
leads into that and intuition feel all that kind of
stuff we've always talked about.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
So I think it would be natural to.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
Almost assume, which I hate to do because you know
what that does makes an ass out of you and
me according to coach Joe Sarah on the blackboard at
la Field College in nineteen seventy three.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
I think it was still true, by the way.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
Yeah, so it's like, I think all those things are
in play right there, and like you just pointed out,
even the first inning, like but when the challenge system,
just basically on the basis came into playbeing there could
be like a first the first bat of the game
could mean something like, for instance, the time and Pittsburgh
when Rizzo hit a first pitch home itd on the
right field line. They called it fair, they got together,
(09:09):
called it foul. They decided it was foul, and I
got kicked out because now the burden of proof is
on us through replay to say that it was fair,
which was impossible. It was too high, too far even
for them to overturn it. But again, it was the
first play, first pitch of the game, so you can't
overlook that. The thing that I like, again, going back
(09:31):
just a little bit here, by keeping it at two,
maybe make it to three eventually something like that.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
I don't know, but I liked so far.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
I liked the idea of a limited number and not
just having a carte Blanche, because you just don't want
to newter the umpire and the catchers, especially in this situation.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
They still want to have the skill.
Speaker 4 (09:49):
Sets of both of them being on display and nurtured,
because otherwise you did mean this in the Maybe the
right word isn't lazy. But are these guys going to
get lazy umpriars and catchers because all of a sudden
their skill set isn't as important. If I'm wrong, it's okay,
it's going to be fixed anyway. Kind of a thought process.
So I mean all these things, the human nature side
(10:09):
of things that are really hard to evaluate, almost impossible
to evaluate correct. So these are the unintended consequences that
I think can show up down the road. Again, it's
just conjecture based on my limited experience watching it on TV,
because I really do like to be boots on the
ground and a dugout watching and stuff that has always
made a difference to me. So yeah, it's an interesting topic.
(10:30):
The lot's going to be unveiled as we move it
forward in regards to a good idea abatity. But you
also one more point you made, Okay, this is now strategical,
So for some of the rules that have negated strategy.
This all of a sudden imparts or implanted strategy into
the game, maybe in a way that's again been subtracted
(10:51):
now not necessarily managerial strategy, with strategy nonetheless, so it
can be actually like a counterbalance to some of the
things that have taken away from strategical moments.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
As far as the possible down the road of adding
more challenges, that's a hard no for me, a really
hard no. I mean, right now, it's kind of a
misnomer that a team only has two challenges. You have
an unlimited number of challenges. You only have a limit
on challenges you don't get right, So listen, all the
(11:23):
research in the minor leagues show that when the challenges
per game go up to five, six or seven, it
becomes too much. It stops the game down too often,
the novelty wears off for the fans. I would even
consider going in the opposite direction, saying you only have
one more than I would go to three. I mean, listen,
they've worked this thing out through so many years, of
(11:45):
five years of change and looking at the data, they
pretty much hit on the right number, I think.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
But adding more I hope we never ever ever see more.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
As far as this was interesting, Alex Korra the Red
Sox mentioned that dugout Joe is quieter.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
Now.
Speaker 1 (12:02):
Yeah, you know, if you all don't like it, man,
don't belly ache challenge challenge it, ye right.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
I mean I got to kick out of the.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Game the other day and in the Yankees game where
I think Mike Guesterbrook was having a tough time behind
the plate and Aaron Boone was getting on him like, hey,
you got to be better, tighten it up, and he
missed five pitches and their challenge they were all overturned
and Asterbrook gotten Boone's face basically told to shut up.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
It's on you man. I mean that's the other thing
here about the Empires.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
They're being called out now, not by the dugout, but
they're being called out like the scoreboard calls out players
when they make an error. You know, it's the only
sport where you know, Baseball puts them in lights when
you make a mistake, it's identified as an error and
put up on the lights on the scoreboard.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
That's the case now with umpires.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
Yeah, that's gonna be tough on these guys. I mean,
they haven't shielded from that and probably need to be
shielded from that just to know it, because they need
to maintain their confidence. They need to go out there
and arbitrate the game in a way that everybody feels
confident about it. And you can't you know, as their
as their confidence gets impacted. Not that your shortstop, you know,
(13:11):
you shortstop whatever can have their uh confidence impacted. But
these umpires, I mean I to a certain level, they
need to be protected, I think.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
So I can understand that.
Speaker 4 (13:23):
The good part about Boonie getting on Esterbrook is the
fact that it didn't totally subtract the emotion from the game,
from the from the dugout, because that's that's always an argument.
The more technology involved, the less emotion involved from from
the players and the managers, et cetera.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
So I think it's.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
Okay, It's okay, like if if we keep getting this,
we keep getting having the challenge.
Speaker 3 (13:44):
Just it's like, it's it's just being a good manager.
Speaker 4 (13:47):
Like, so, who's gonna who else could manage the umpires
during the course of the game, unless maybe the crew
chief walk down and tells a subord and listen, hey man,
come on, let's tighten this thing up. So the manager,
being the manager of the team is also maybe in
some way now the manager of the umpires because somebody's
got a even though it's been overturned, it could get
a little bit annoying the fact that the guy is
(14:09):
missing so many this wake up I possibly. I mean,
I'm saying that because I think I can see myself
doing the same thing. So, like I said, it's like
a Pandora's box of thoughts and ideas and differences based
on this that we have not thought about. It's going
to continue to evolve and more items are going to
be presented because it is so new. So yeah, interesting,
(14:30):
and implementation has been good.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Yeah, it's We had our first walk off game ending
challenge the other day. It wasn't actually a close game,
but it Strike three call the Baltimore game Texas Baltimore
game overturned a game ended on a challenge.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
Pretty interesting.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
There is a downside to this ABS system, and I
will tell you what that downside is right after this,
when we get back on the Book of Joe.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
Welcome back to the Book of Joe. Joe. I mentioned
the downside.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
You actually hinted at this, and the downside is when
an umpire has a bad day and it happens, and
it's going to happen, and we've seen it already here.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
I mean, you had C. B.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Buckner and the fans were sort of jeering him because
the problem is when successful challenges start to mount, it's
not an indication of how good of an eye the
catchers and hitters have. It's an indication of how bad
a day the umpire is having. And I mentioned when
you start running up multiple challenges per game, it does
(15:47):
become too much. And there was again Chris Siegel calling
a game missed seven pitches, ten challenges, seven were overturned.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
CEB. Buckner had that game.
Speaker 1 (16:00):
I'm talking about eight challenges, six were over return and
Chad witson seven challenges all overturn. Those are bad days, folks,
and there's nowhere for an umpire to hide. And when
it happens on consecutive pitches, even as it happened to C. B. Buckner,
(16:20):
it's it's just to me, it's an uncomfortable look. Yeah,
we want to get them right, but that to me, Joe,
is the only downside I feel for the umpires in
these cases where they're getting called out when it starts
to be come on, tighten up, you can't be this bad,
and you become the focus as an umpire.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
That is getting a little dicey for me.
Speaker 4 (16:41):
Yeah, but I would also almost imagine that the repeat
offenders have been offensive for a bit of time. I mean,
I just like agreed, I don't need to know, but
I think that the league needs to do something about this.
Of course, these guys have ironclad tenure. They're not going anywhere.
They don't get demoted. There are some that are trying
to get to the big leagues and they go up
and up and down that kind of stuff. That's different.
(17:03):
But if you're there, you're there. And so there's got
to be some kind of method here that if you
you know, get challenged that often and are in the
negative that often, some kind of uh, you know, classroom
has got to be instituted or some kind of administrator
supervisor's got to speak to this guy and an attempt
(17:24):
to help him and and like get down to the
reason why we're missing somebody, because it'd be technique. I mean, listen,
everything is about technique. And I used to hang out
with Dick Nelson. He was in charge of the umpires
for years down in the minor leagues, and Dick had
been an umpire and come to instructional leagues and he
was they were always on top of their their umpires
and their training, and they'd.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Be, you know, very critical.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
And he used to talk to me a lot about
the techniques involved with umpiring. So I would almost bet
that some of these guys that are less than you know,
guys that are getting challenged that often and again being
and losing the challenge the umpire is losing, there's got
to there has to be some kind of technique involved,
I would believe, so something that could be addressed and
brought up the speed, like a set up differently, whatever,
(18:08):
in order to make them see things maybe a little
bit better than they than they are at this particular time.
And then you can just look at the guys that
are really good. It's a little different than looking at
a good picture, a good hitter, whatever, a good golf swing.
Technologically speaking, there's there's some there's some things that are
in there that maybe may need to be addressed on me.
They possibly already doing this, and maybe they already already
(18:29):
doing this, and I would think that would be wise.
But that would be my first thing. They're really heavy
offenders need to be reschooled a little bit more. And
I don't care really regarding their their length of time.
And nobody needs to know about this except the umpire
and question and whoever the supervisor is. I don't think
this needs to become public knowledge at all. This is
really need to be needs to be handled very carefully.
(18:51):
And this is one thing that Yeah, nobody needs to
know about. This is a not even a need to
know basis. They only need to know basis are the
group involved. But that's what I would start with right there.
Supervisionally and the technique and if there's something off and
how can we change this.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
Yeah, I think it's a good point, Joe. And if
you look at the accuracy rates among major league umpires,
first of all, the discrepancy is not as large as
a lot of people think, like the difference between at
the bottom of the end of accuracy in the top.
It's really not that these guys are really good average.
They're getting more than ninety three percent right. But then
you have a game like C. B. Buckner had where
(19:28):
he's only right eighty eight percent of the time on
his calls.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
That's alarming.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
But in terms of the accuracy, it breaks pretty much
a long age lines, Joe. I mean, the older umpires
tend not to be as good as the younger umpires.
I have a couple of theories on that. One is
that the younger umpires have been trained on this laser
guided system. It's not quote unquote their strike zone. It's
the strike zone. Also, it's just an age and physical
(19:54):
type of thing, whether it's the eyes or I think
especially the way, and you mentioned this technique, the way
you can position yourself. You know, a guy in his
late sixties just cannot get down I think in a
better position or as well as the guy in his
early thirties. And it's just interesting to me that the
younger guys tend to grade out better than the older guys.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
And it's a tough game.
Speaker 3 (20:14):
Man.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
If you've an.
Speaker 1 (20:15):
Umpire and you've been around ten fifteen years, man, have
you seen the game change, right? I mean in terms
of velocity and spin and now how the zone is
called that it's like an older hitter. You know, a
guy like Paul Goldschmid has seen velocity really change in
the course of his career. The number of fastballs being
thrown have gone way down. It's not the same game
(20:37):
it was ten years ago. So it's an interesting call.
Here's a question for you too, Jode, that brought some
people have brought this up. Should we have umpires who
are just ball and strike umpires and just have the
guys who are best at it and that's their job.
They don't do the basis And when you think about it,
an umpire now works essentially once a week behind the plate,
(20:57):
whereas a hitter is out there and the catchers for
the most part every day. A hitter in the course
of a season is going to see if he plays
every day more than three thousand pitches, not to mention
all the darn tracking that they do against virtual reality
machines and in the cage they see pitches coming into
the strike zone way more than an umpire does. What's
(21:21):
your idea that your thoughts on whether we should have
umpires just be ball strike umpires like in football, you know,
they have a certain position on the field.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
Not everybody rotates around the different positions.
Speaker 4 (21:31):
I had just written that down before you started talking.
I wrote home played umpires and based umpires question Mark.
You know there's such a thing. I mean, I know,
from a managerial perspective, when a certain guy's behind the play,
you have a lot more confidence in the game, You
feel better about it. You just know that the guy
is going to be good for both sides, because you
want them good for both sides, not just your side.
And yeah, the base umpiring, I mean, obviously that can
(21:53):
get unique guys out there, just you just need to
have that whole the field completely covered and on the
basis the ability to really challenge out there obviously also
is intact.
Speaker 3 (22:03):
And it seems just like, I.
Speaker 4 (22:05):
Don't know, is it more easily fix or is it
are they on par right now?
Speaker 3 (22:09):
Whatever?
Speaker 4 (22:09):
But yeah, I would also believe if you're a home
played umpire only I don't even know if that means
you work two games a week, I mean maybe up
to three games a week. That'd be kind of tough,
though there have to be some physical specimens. I think
doing that almost like a really good major league catcher.
If in fact that happened, these guys would have to
get paid more. I think I make a home plate umpire.
If that's what you are, I think you make more
(22:30):
money than just a base some part do you start
out as a base on par and then how do
you earn your wings by saying, well, eventually you have
the ability to earn the right to become a home
played umpire. But if you're just being a base on par,
this would be very difficult or impossible to gain confidence
in order to bring them behind a plate, and that
(22:50):
would be really create an entirely different developmental system. Although again,
if somebody knows I can make more money by being
a home played umpire, but he's going to want to
be one of those, and then maybe you wash out
in the minor leagues, Eventually they say, nope, we only
have based on piring for you because we don't just think,
we believe that you're not going to be have the
(23:10):
ability to umpire home play. So there's all these you're
talking development to me, right, and that's where.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
I started going with all of this. So it would
be tough.
Speaker 4 (23:19):
It'd be tough, I think, just physically, I do, because
it's gonna be hard to get that many guys that
were that good at calling balls and strikes and just
utilize them there. And what would that mean, like how
many games a week would these umpires be able to umpire?
Speaker 3 (23:35):
Physically?
Speaker 4 (23:36):
Well, like for me, Wilson Contraras when in the prime
really young, I wanted to catch them three days in
a row, and they give them a day off. And
then when it got later in a year when it
was really pertinent, I thought four on and then one
off was okay. So that would be a consideration. You're right,
they'd have to be younger, they'd have to be like
in great shape. They'd have to be like a training
program involved for these guys in their legs and rest
(23:59):
and diet and all this other stuff. So it's not impossible,
but there'd be a really interesting developmental process there.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Yeah, you just talked me out of it, Joe. It's
one of those things where it sounds like a good idea,
but when you actually drill down to it, I agree,
there's there's probably too many issues and things to surmount
to have.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
It really be workable.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
Let's talk about the New York Yankees, by the way,
and you talk about a team getting off to a
hot start, and by the way, they're thirteen and three.
When it comes to their challenges, everything is going the
Yankees away. So they've allowed six runs in six games.
There's only two other teams that have done that, the
nineteen fifteen Phillies and the two thousand and two Giants.
(24:46):
I mean, if you watch what the Yankees are doing,
the way they're just filling up the strike zone, Cam
Schlittler looks like he's an absolute study. Well remember people,
they didn't even have Garrett Cole and Carlos Rodonn in
the rotation right now. Max Freed has been unbelieved. And
this goes back to when he signed with the Yankees
(25:06):
as a free agent. He basically told them, I'm at
your disposal in terms of their pitching lab.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
What you want me to do with my pitch is
how I use them? What I throw. I'm open to anything.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
And they've changed them from a guy who, let's face
it was mostly four seen curveball guy pitching up and
down on the zone to a guy who now.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
Throws sweepers, cutters, sliders.
Speaker 1 (25:30):
He's moving the ball to all quadrants of the zone
like he never did before.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
He's a completely different pitcher.
Speaker 1 (25:36):
I think he's the prototypical now modern pitcher with technology
where they could do so many things to make the
ball move in all four directions north, south, east, west
on both sides of the plate. He had never been
that kind of guy. His pitch distribution would never be
this scattered. But he's got the aptitude, the ability, and
the talent to do it. The Yankees right now, Joe,
(25:58):
look like you know, they ran it back virtually the
same roster, but even without Cole and Redon, they look
like they are going to be the team to beat
in the East. And that's no disrespect to the Toronto
Blue Jays, who I picked to win that division. But
what to start from New York. They just getting home
this week for the first time.
Speaker 4 (26:16):
By the way, Yeah, I've been watching reading all the above.
They've they have been impressive, and he did. The pitching
has been that good. Their bullpens, you know, Bennar still
he got through it last night.
Speaker 3 (26:29):
I think his stuff's really good.
Speaker 4 (26:30):
But he threw like forty pitches last night, which I
think is like pretty heavy, and I'd be I really
would be concerned about that personally, especially with this involvement
in the World Baseball Classic thing, and that he's really
important to their success. He's vital to their success. So
the starting pitching has been great. The bullpen, you know,
the names are okay, I'm I'm not as he namored
with the names out of the bullpen. And of course
(26:52):
Bennar is a lofty at college guy, so I'm really
pulling for him. But I'm watching all of that. Their
offense is really clicking on all cylinders. Ben Rice, this
guy is a throwback player. He looks like he would
have been Lou Garrig's roommate. I mean, that's almost they're
both Ivy leaguers actually right, this guy's just really raw strong.
Speaker 3 (27:13):
I mean he hits. When he hits a ball, it
is absolutely mangle.
Speaker 4 (27:16):
It's I know Joel Sherman and I spoke about it
earlier this year, the comp with him and Shobert Kyle,
and there is a comp there both having caught and
then really not catching in the big leagues but being
left handed and have this incredibly strong, strong just hand,
strong hands and commanded the strikes on. So he's like,
really that vital to their success and they are there
(27:39):
we have to wait. I mean, they're clicking on all cylinders.
There's no doubt about it. I think their defense is
better McMahon. If they're in the shortstop, then a really
nice job at short stuff. I saw make a nice
play the thing I liked about the play that he
made yesterday was the fact that it was not an
easy play, but he made a throw that was kind
of awkward but accurate, and you kind of smiled afterwards.
I mean, he breathes, He's out there playing the game
(28:00):
in a very confident way. So they're gonna get better
as their pitching gets better. Yeah, I think this is
real coming off last year. The ability to engage with
one another consistently and all this like running back kind
of stuff.
Speaker 3 (28:15):
That's what everybody did for years. They brought back.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
The Yankees did it, the Cardinals did it, the Dodgers
did it, and nobody ever said anything about it. I mean,
it's just so everybody's so into flipping the page so easily.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
I think what they did was kind of good.
Speaker 4 (28:29):
And so anyway, they're pretty strong right now, and I
you know, I do agree.
Speaker 3 (28:33):
With what you're saying. I'm seeing the same thing.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
And also I wanted to mention show.
Speaker 1 (28:37):
Hey Otani of course fan favorite of this show and
everybody pretty much around baseball.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
It was great to see him make his first start again.
Speaker 1 (28:46):
This is the first time but in about three years,
that he's going into the season fully healthy. Full two
way player, not rehabbing the arm as he was last year.
What's interesting to me, Joe and I saw this in
spring training and want to get your take on this
is how he's leaning into a splitter this year like
we didn't see last year. Last year he threw only
four percent splitters in the course of the regular season,
(29:08):
got to the postseason, doubled that to eight percent, and
now here he is throwing it doubling that now fifteen
sixteen percent what we've seen in spring trending in his
first start.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
I actually think that's his best pitch.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
And I know he throws up her nineties, but that
split is just hard for anybody to square up. And
it's interesting to me to watch him throw it now
at about eighty six miles an hour. That's down from
ninety what he was throwing at last year. So listen
to Dodgers are going to be careful with show.
Speaker 3 (29:39):
Hey.
Speaker 1 (29:39):
We all know that, but man, look out major League
Baseball that show. Hey, Otani is not in rehab mode
right now on the mound. People forget I think they
forgot he's actually an ace. I mean, he's got ace
quality stuff. What's your take on, show, Hey, this year
as a pitcher.
Speaker 4 (29:55):
Well, I think his arms healed. I mean, and he
is more confident about what he's doing. And I think
the Dodgers are too. I think the less velocity is
no different than an airplane going through some turbulence. I mean,
you just back off on the velocity of the plane
to take off the stress.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
And I think the same thing with his arm.
Speaker 4 (30:11):
I think by backing off the loss, I think that's intentional.
I would bet if he wanted to throw it harder,
he can, and that may be something he's holding back
for later. The guy is very intentional. There's nothing that
happens there just by accident. So the blankets off the
arm feels better. Blessing with the Dodgers throw it more often.
But let's let's take a little stress off and see
if we could throw it in a way that it
doesn't have to be such a full effort pitch. That's
(30:33):
what it sounds like to me, and I've always for
me with him. His success I thought was directly connected
to the command of his fastball. As long as he's
throwing his fastball where he wants, when he wants to,
then the split becomes really as devastating as you're talking
about right.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Now, Joe, We're gonna take a quick break when we
get back. I can't wait to get your take on this.
The idea before a guy even plays a day in
the major leagues to give him fifty three million, ninety
five million, does it make sense. Well, it's a trend
that's happening in baseball. We'll talk about that right after
this of the Book of Joe.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
Welcome back to the Book of Joe.
Speaker 1 (31:23):
Colt Emerson, a real top ten prospect in baseball, just
sign an extension. Has not yet played in the big
leagues with the Seattle Mariners eight years, ninety five million dollars.
And that came a day or so after the Milwaukee
Brewers locked up Cooper Pratt for eight years and fifty
(31:44):
one million dollars. Cooper Pratt is twenty one years old.
Last year in DOUBLEA hit two thirty eight. He's a
defense first shortstop. I'm sure they agree he's going to
hit at some point better than he has shown right now.
Speaker 2 (31:59):
It's listening. That's very early in his career.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
But he's basically, you know, I want to say, a
typical Brewers player, but the kind of player that they like.
He can defend, he can run high baseball IQ. They
like everything they've seen Colt Emerson high offensive side infielder
with Seattle.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
What's your take, Jo on this.
Speaker 1 (32:20):
I've always thought that teams better know their home talent,
you know, better than anybody else, better than fishing in
the free agent waters. Obviously, these teams are very convicted
into what they've seen out of these players, not just statistically,
but their makeup and what their growth pattern is and
their young careers. It's an interesting take for me to
(32:40):
see teams like this, especially Milwaukee commit. They did it
with Churio Jackson. Churio signed him to eighty three million
for eight years. What do you think of this trend, Joe.
Speaker 4 (32:50):
Well, I just have to go back in time to
really understand what I think. I saw Ken Griffy Junior
in Bellingham, Washington when he was like seventeen or eighteen
years old, hit a ball very far out of that
ballpark to right field, and everybody was talking about him
the pedigree. So would you, you know, push the clock
forward if Ken Griffyth Junior was in your minor league system,
(33:10):
would you want to do the same thing I saw
Alex Rodriguez when he was talking against the Mariners. I
saw him when he was like again seventeen or eighteen,
make a play up the middle in Peoria, an instructional
league that I thought, Oh my god, I mean, who
else is going to make that play?
Speaker 3 (33:26):
Right? I saw Gary Sheffield.
Speaker 4 (33:27):
I was standing next to him at third base and
instructional league again in Peoria, and he's with the Brewers
in a young Gary Sheffield. I mean, look at what
I saw back then? Would you not give him a
bunch of dough two Barry bonds? I saw him at
Arizona State. Then I see him in the minor leagues
or whatever.
Speaker 3 (33:44):
I think this.
Speaker 4 (33:44):
You know, these guys have existed forever, but now it's
just a little bit more in vogue. To do this way,
I would be still be wary of it. Just backtuning.
I'd have to see these guys in with my own
eyeballs in order to tell you exactly what I think
about this. I could vouch for the guys that I
just brought up because I saw them and these guys
(34:05):
that they're talking about now. I know it's different times
and there's different methods being employed. I would say analytically,
if you know, based on the metrics involved and how
they're devising all this, I'm sure that they Again, this
is a situation where analytics provides the safety in it
because if it doesn't work out, what we had, everybody
was on board everything, The numbers are in order, and
(34:25):
the projection wise is all there, and everybody saw the
same things. They're talking about exit velocity, you know, when
there's running speed, bat speed, arm speed whatever they're so
they're utilizing a different method of scouting in order to
project and permit the organization paying these numbers at such
an early age. But I don't want people to be
deceived and think that all of a sudden, there's these
prodigies now that didn't exist back then, because they did.
(34:48):
These prodigies did exist back then. So I just think
it's a method, a method that's being employed right now.
Speaker 3 (34:56):
I can't say that it's better or worse.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
The interesting thing there was you talked about one player
that was locked up because of his defense. He got
less money as oppos So the guy that was locked
up first potential on offense, which was more money.
Speaker 3 (35:08):
To me.
Speaker 4 (35:08):
The docking somebody up based on defense would be a
better bet because when you projected on defense, you normally
could project the guy's already has a better number to
begin with, and the projection isn't as dramatic, whereas normally
the hitting projection's got to be more dramatic and permits
are more projection in regards to like going from a
(35:28):
thirty to eighty hit or whatever. So it's an interesting concept.
But again, I as a Scott, I'd have to see
these guys. And again, the way the decision is supported
now is different than Jack mckin with a cigar in
the room whomever saying that we're going to give this
guy this kind of a contract and we're going to
(35:50):
buy him out whatever, and we're gonna give him that
kind of money before he's played a moment in the
big leagues, which I think would have been heard of
back then.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
Well, it's interesting because I don't think we're talking about
prodigies in either case here. Like you mentioned, you know,
the Griffies Sheffield. I mean, those guys just jump out
and yeah, you would sign them in a heartbeat. It
doesn't take you know, the most seasoned scout to realize
those guys were going to be stars. You saw it
with Longoria. I think I would do this with Connor Griffin,
(36:21):
the young shortstop of the Pirates, number one prospect in baseball,
nineteen years old, just turning twenty. That to me is
what the scouts might put if not an eighty hitter
or a seventy hitter. What we're talking about here are
I don't want to say complimentary players, but just to
give you an example, the money that Seattle is giving
(36:42):
Colt Emerson is about equivalent to what Austin Riley is
making in his first eight years in the big league.
So you're betting that Colt Emerson is going to be
an Austin Riley type player at least if he's better,
then you got yourself a bargain. And Austin Riley's a
really good player, right. I'm not saying he's not a
good player. He's not King Griffy Jr. But he's a
(37:03):
good player. As far as Cooper Pratt, the comp in
terms of the money they're paying him is JP Crawford, again,
good player. I wouldn't say, you know, he's a prodigy
or an outlier, top of the spectrum eighty hitter at all.
So if you look back Joe. It's scouty, as you know,
(37:24):
is so hard. Other than the guys that some of
the guys you mentioned who just jump off the page,
you can tell they're going to be stars. And you're
really not wrong too often with the guys at the
top of the draft anyway. But here are the guys
who have signed extensions before they played a day in
the major leagues. And I want you to tell me
whether so far it's worked out well or not.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
In some cases it's we're not too deep in the contract.
Speaker 3 (37:49):
Yeah, very good.
Speaker 1 (37:50):
Jackson Curio, I'd say that worked out well. What'd you say?
Pretty good?
Speaker 3 (37:54):
Right?
Speaker 1 (37:55):
It looks like they made a good bet on him.
Luis Robert Jr. White Sox No. I would say no.
I think he's been a disappointment, largely health related. Eloi Jimenez.
What would you say about Alloy Jimenez? Is it worth
locking that guy up? You say no.
Speaker 2 (38:13):
Colt Keith the Tigers locked up.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
We've only had one year, but he's not even an
everyday player for the most part. Scott Kingrey the Phillies,
that's a no. Evan White, the Mariners, that's a no.
John Singleton the Astros, that's a. No, those are the
only players have signed contracts before they became big leaguers.
That's not a high hit rate. I think it speaks
(38:37):
to how difficult it is to know even your own players.
So you give these guys money, you give them that contract,
that love the fact that it takes out a lot
of worry for these players. You know, why would the
young players sign one of these deals? Well, your set
just go play now, you don't worry about going year
by year downside?
Speaker 2 (38:56):
Is players not as good as you think?
Speaker 4 (38:59):
Well again, I'm Quebec could just go down memory lane
for a bit. I mean, and I'm going to be
I'm not even being biased here. How about my Angels
outfield that we had in the nineties as an instructor
that eventually kind of when the world one guy was
missing with winning the World Series. You're talking about Garrett Anderson,
Darren Erstad, Jimmy Edmunds, and Timothy Salmon. Dude, If those
(39:21):
guys are coming up with one group right now, right,
I mean, that would be the talk of baseball, that
particular group right there. Then then you pop Troy Gloss
at third base, and look at what Roy did over
the course of his career. Benji Molina as a catcher
what he did also, and he started out very slowly.
But the point is, I mean we, I think we
tend to exaggerate a little bit what's going on right now.
Speaker 3 (39:42):
But if you comp out and I don't want to
be that guy.
Speaker 4 (39:45):
I'm just saying the guys of the past, because I
keep printing about these incredible athletes of today. I saw
incredible athleticism back then at Devon White I had Mark
McLam I mean, these guys are like really athletically good.
They turn out to be really good baseball players, and
that if they were coming down the pike right now, God,
they would be They'd be like in all these different lists.
(40:08):
I'd say, in the top fifty in all these lists
that we would read on a daily basis. So it's
just a different way. It's a different method of evaluation.
But again, the old methods of scouting were is equally
as good. If I don't want to say better because
then people are gonna there's no way for me to
prove that. But the old methods of scouting with dudes
like getting in their car, driving all over the country
(40:29):
and bringing back players to an organization pretty darn good,
pretty darn good. And the difference would be we had
more chances. I mean, there was more guys drapped it.
There was more guys, there was more minor leagues, there
was more guys in organizations, there was more development going on.
Speaker 3 (40:41):
It was more and more and more of all of
that compared to now.
Speaker 4 (40:44):
I think now they feel like they can't be wrong
because they have less opportunities to develop these guys they need,
they need more of a finished product as opposed to
weight weight weight in a minor league situation, rookie ball,
two levels of rookie ball low, A high, A, double A,
triple A, and then even a couple Latin Americans team.
So it's just it's a different method involved. I'm here
(41:07):
to tell you I think the older method is the
former method is the better method in regards to the
player development. That's I think that's easy to defend. So
now they're locking up of these guys again. It's just
it's a different method of evaluating these players and the
fact that when you're able to come on board as
a group based on math, I think it's easier when
(41:30):
they're wrong to defend a decision.
Speaker 3 (41:33):
I think that's right.
Speaker 2 (41:34):
Yeah, it's always been.
Speaker 1 (41:36):
I mean, I have so much respect for the scouts
who have to make these calls.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
It's always been a very difficult art, more so than
a science, that's right.
Speaker 3 (41:45):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (41:46):
Going back to twenty seventeen, if you took the top
ten prospects in baseball, because we hear these terms all
the time, right as you mentioned Joe, these lists, and
we think about top ten lists like, oh, that guy
is guaranteed to make it. Just to keep this in
mind here, in twenty seventeen, top ten prospects in baseball
(42:06):
included jan Mancata, Ahmed Rosario, Alex Reyes, Victor Roblace, and
Austin Meadows. Those are misses. Those are five of the
top ten I would call misses. So it has I
don't think it's gotten any easier to make calls on
these young players.
Speaker 2 (42:24):
No matter what measurements we have to measure the skill set.
Speaker 4 (42:28):
I still would like to see a more patient method
of development. There's a lot of impatients with that. You
are seeing some very young players get up there and
become stars quickly. But that's always been that way. I
don't think that it's given enough credit. What Robin you did,
or we could go down the list like in a
young Griffia, young Alex Rodriguez.
Speaker 3 (42:48):
It's always there's always been the prodigies.
Speaker 4 (42:49):
There's always been prodigies, but then the overall arching development
of others. And there's power numbers, for sure. I don't
think anybody can argue that. I just think if you
had the ability to maintain a larger develop mental system
with more more players, more more real coaches, more baseball
being taught. You know, I don't even know if I've
(43:10):
been noticing this or not, but our home runs down?
Is that like, is there more runs being developed right
now through base hits and is more situational hitting become
more of an art form again? Or am I just
is this just a small sample size.
Speaker 1 (43:23):
I think that's a strikeout rate actually has gone down
a little bit.
Speaker 2 (43:27):
I think that's okay. Get here.
Speaker 1 (43:28):
Yeah, I think there is a little bit more emphasis
on that for sure. And that's why so many people
loved watching the Toronto Blue Jays in the postseason last year.
Speaker 4 (43:36):
Yeah, I thought's because what I do is I'll watch
a game occasionally, but I'm so busy watching the Atlanta
Hawks right now. Beat up on the Orlando Magic like
last night. So I'm involved in there a little bit.
But in the morning, I sit down and go through
the MLB app and I'll just watch the highlights, and
it's just not been bludgeoning, you know. I'm just seeing
like I'm just seeing some better at baths like you're
(43:56):
suggesting right there. I'm just curious if that's going to
become part of the landscape. Again, it's a it is
a copycat league. Off somebody does well, obviously the next
year everybody goes to spring training and wants to emulate
that group. Nothing wrong with that, with it. For me,
with this, I listen, I want it all. I want
the three run homer. I want the ability to score
a run from third with less than two outs by
(44:17):
putting the ball in play. I want the runner moved
from second to third with nobody out, you know. I
want pitchers that are able to throw strikes and get
the third time through the batting order by being able
to throw a strike when they want to, not necessarily
all the time. I want, you know, great base running
when guy's going from first to third, second to home,
and even first to home on the ball in a gap.
I mean, all these things are they should never h
(44:39):
they should always be invoked.
Speaker 3 (44:40):
I think I'm seeing some of that right now. It
should be awesome.
Speaker 1 (44:43):
Yeah, strikeout rate has gone down each of the last
two years. It's been a long time since that that
curve started going down two consecutive years. Now it's up
so far this year, but so early. I don't put
any stock in that. It's only one week of play.
Speaker 3 (44:58):
Too cold.
Speaker 2 (44:58):
Yeah, yeah, But.
Speaker 1 (45:01):
At this point, Joe, I'm gonna tap my head for
a challenge, and the challenge is to you, very nice,
to bring us home here on the book of Joe.
Speaker 2 (45:09):
What do you got for us this week?
Speaker 4 (45:11):
Well, I'm just well, you know, watching some tough losses.
Teams lose, but they play hard and they try to
do well and all this stuff or just.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
Just a bad day. You know, we all have bad days.
Speaker 4 (45:21):
And the one thing I always used to go to
some of my players with the line after a bad
moment is just to re really trust the power of
twenty four hours. Twenty four hours can be very powerful.
You can go from your worst to your best day
expecting something wonderful to happen. So today I actually found
something that substantiated that, and it came from Admiral William
(45:46):
McRaven his insights on resilience. He said, even the worst
days only last twenty four hours. The quote serves as
a reminder that tough times are temporary, encouraging optimism and
the belief that tomorrow brings a fresh start. It highlights
that no bad situation lasts and definitely which I think
we all have a tendency to do, and it really
gets in the way and it couldn't impact today, And
(46:09):
you really never want to put a negative vibe on
today because even if it starts out, even if that
first drive you know, goes into ob whatever, you still
got seventeen hosts to recover. So I'm a big believer
in the power of twenty four hours. I use that
with my family a lot, my kids, my grandkids a lot,
and people that I know that I really respect and love.
(46:29):
So even the worst days only the last twenty four hours.
Speaker 3 (46:32):
Hang in there, baby.
Speaker 2 (46:33):
Oh.
Speaker 1 (46:33):
It's a good message for Alex Cora to give his
Red Sox. Right six games, are already four games behind
the Yankees and they come home for their home opener
one in five. I don't know how you felt about
those first weeks, Joe, But man, you want to start
putting some wins on the scoreboard and not be playing uphill.
Speaker 3 (46:55):
Two things.
Speaker 4 (46:55):
First of all, of course, the Red Sox fans will
be very nourishing in their response. And the second, I
remember the one in seven rays going to Chicago, and
I had the toast on the airplane. It's some really
good stuff, some Sharbay whiskey from NAPA and went through
and I passed out the little urine sample cups and
their brand new the previously used, and I fled some
(47:20):
Sharbay and them thank you. I had to qualify that yet,
and I toasted the best one in seven team in
history of Major League Baseball. And eventually we've talked about this.
We did make the playoffs, and we did lose in
the playoffs, and eventually I did to say went through
the same thing, and I just said, apparently I was right.
This is the best team one in seven team in
(47:40):
history of Major League Baseball. So listen, it's all how
you frame it. You got to believe this stuff. Believe it,
and you'll see it. A lot of people have to
see it to believe it. If you believe it, you'll
eventually see it. That's the optimistic vibe you have to
carry with you every day. And again, recently I read
that little piece from one of I think branch Rickey's
daughters and granddaughters. I loved it, and I passed it
(48:02):
along to a lot of folks. But to expect some
thing wonderful to happen today, and if you do that,
it's going to show up at some point, since we
all have this tendency to exaggerate our plight, and remember
even the worst days only last twenty four hours.
Speaker 1 (48:17):
Great stuff, Joe, We'll see you next time, all right, brother,
have a good week. The Book of Joe podcast is
a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit
the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
The Book of Joe podcast is a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Hey Aaron, welcome back.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
It's the Book of Joe Podcast with me, Tom Berducci
and of course Joe Madden and Joe. We've entered a new,
a brave, new world in baseball these days with head
tapping and challenging. Of course, it's the dawn of the
ABS challenge system. I'll get into the numbers in a minute,
but first I want to get your initial takes. We
(00:38):
knew this was coming, we saw it a little bit
in spring training the last couple of years. One week
into the great ABS era. What's your interpretation of what
we're watching?
Speaker 3 (00:49):
Well, I like the expedient component of it.
Speaker 4 (00:51):
I mean, obviously as soon as they tap part of
steps out looks up and almost immediately the correct call
shows up. So from that perspective, I'm okay with that. Also, again,
I can't see every every game. I'm watching replay videos
and that kind of stuff, but it seems like a
lot of it's pertinent too. I Mean there's been some
really big turnarounds which we've always known, like in a dugout,
(01:15):
managing a game, being part of a season, you know,
there's the game's over and you go through the post mortem,
and obviously you think, ah my god, how about that
call if it's done the other way something, you know,
it's the you know, the outcome not even outcome bias,
it's just actually outcome differential. It's just been switched. So yeah,
I'm so far. I think I've been a fan of it.
(01:36):
You know, the point of there's also been a pointment
of reading about this still that the somehow the catching
framing is still impactful, that we're talking about Wells with
the Yankees and Raley with the Mariners, how they've been
very good at it, and the fact that that could
still be influential in regarding the the the the challenge
(01:58):
system in the way it's utilized and how often it's utilized,
and it benefits obviously the team that has the catchers
that are able to do this. So you probably could
extrapolate that in a bit further. I just didn't notice that.
So overall from experienced perspective, I think it's good. And
you know, I almost believe that as you play it forward,
(02:19):
and I think you still want to give catchers the
ability to be impactun I still think you want to
have umpires, give the umpires the ability to just be
umpires and call a game and just maybe be interfered
with occasionally, so you know, they're still going to be clamoring.
I think maybe for the every pitch being called. But
I think if they continue along this path, the suspense also,
(02:40):
I think adds to the drama of the day. So
as right now, I think maybe the case is being
made for what they're doing and to continue what they're
doing and not expand upon it.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
That's my first take.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Yeah, I would agree with you one hundred percent on
all of that. I think on the whole that the
rollout here has been really seamless. And you know, I
say rollout. It's on the major league level. We've seen
in the minor leagues for a good four or five years,
so a lot of guys have played with it already
and the kinks have been worked out.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
I mean, it's for a new system here. You're absolutely right.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
The expediency is very impressive. It's about fifteen to sixteen
seconds from challenge to results, so it's not holding up
the game. I love the fact that you said there's suspense.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
I like that.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
I like the fact that their strategy involved. You have
to understand when to challenge when not to challenge. That's
a strategic element that's been introduced. And the fan engagement
is something that you just can't ignore. I mean, we're
here playing baseball for the good of the fans and
to enjoy the games. And I think that you can
you can tell they dig finding out with the rest
of the world, whether that pitches a ball or a strike.
(03:43):
I mean, it's it's a graphic that's easily understood, it's quick,
so I think people are on board with that on
both players and fans. All good there as far as
the numbers go. Fifty five percent success overturn rate, which
is kind of dubtails with what we've seen in the
minor leagues. It's a little bit more than the coin flip,
which I guess speaks to how good these umpires are,
(04:05):
right that in the course of a game, and there's
I don't know how many pitches there are three hundred
and seventy so pitches that really only a couple.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Are getting overturned in the course of a game.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
So I think it points out, especially when you think about,
you know, how good this stuff is in today's game
in terms of velocity and spin and movement and how
good these umpires are because now they really have to
call that, you know, technology driven strike zone, not their
own strike zone and not based on count pitchers. Uh,
(04:36):
there's a lot of teams, so you know, Joe, we're
telling their pitchers, no, don't challenge you guys. You know
you're farther away from the plate, you're emotionally involved, your
head's moving and it shows.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
And we saw this in the minor leagues as well.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
They're not good at forty two percent success rate challenging pitches,
whereas the catchers are right fifty nine percent and hitters
a little bit below that at fifty two percent. As
far as catching, Joe and I want to get your
take on this, you mentioned the framing aspect. I think
framing is still important because obviously we just talked about this.
Not every pitch is going to get challenged, but you
(05:07):
do have the backstop now, no pun intended to change
challenge a pitch. But what I see here so far
early on, the younger catchers have not been as good
in the challenge success rate as a veteran pitchers. I
actually think understanding the strike zone and knowing when to
challenge have added to the skill set of catchers like
(05:31):
Edgar Quero of the Chicago White Sox, young catcher, he's
challenged more than anybody. He's challenged ten times, he's been
wrong six times. Pedro Pages of the Cardinals, he's one
in four in challenges. Liam Hicks to the Marlins one
and four and challenges. So I think the idea of
the catcher knowing the strike zone and then on top
(05:53):
of that knowing when to challenge, I think comes with experience.
It's just a matter of you know, reps at seeing
what the strike zone is, understanding what it is. What's
your take on catchers and how now they can influence,
if not a game, certainly the leverage of accounts.
Speaker 4 (06:09):
Yeah, no argument there. I would believe that to be true.
There's a confidence level too. There might be certain pitches.
How many pitches you may know this have not been
challenged that should have been challenged?
Speaker 3 (06:19):
Also? Is that is that a number?
Speaker 2 (06:20):
That is a number.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
I'll just give you an example here because I saw
that the Texas Rangers catchers have only made one challenge
in the first week of the season.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
They're all in one challenges.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
So look, how many pitches have been out of the
strike zone or in the strike zone that have been
called balls that they should have challenged. And that's nine
and I think that's pretty close to percentage, you know,
fifteen percent maybe that pitches that are missed or called
in course of a game, you're going to have. I
don't know how many fourteen to fifteen pitches is high
(06:55):
for an umpire to miss, but let's say it's a dozen.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
Maybe a third of those get challenged.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
So yes, the vast majority of miss calls are not
going to be challenged. Let me get your take on this, Joe.
I don't think teams are challenging enough. Let me put
it to you that way. I think managers have, you know,
embedded in the brains of their players so deeply.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Let's save our challenges.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
Let's make sure we have challenges for late in the
game that I think they're a little hesitant. I would
say I would empower my players, catchers, and especially my hitters,
especially my good hitters. If you feel convicted, if your
gut reaction at that moment acrosses the plate is man,
that's not a strike challenge. I want to I don't
think you have to save challenges like in football and basketball,
(07:43):
where teams go home losing games with challenges in their pockets.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Correct, not every game is decided in the ninth inning.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
In fact, very few are so My good hitters, the Bregman's,
the Sotos, the Harpers, these guys, I want to empower them.
You know they can flip account. But the litmus test
for me is gut feeling. I mean, you gotta challenge,
you gotta trust your gut here as a catcher, and
I would look for more challenges as we go along.
Speaker 4 (08:08):
Well, just to go back to your original point, I mean,
I think it's the veteran catcher probably has more confidence
in this moment, maybe the younger guy not so much.
And meaning you're not worried about being wrong when you're
when you're a confident player. I think part of confidence
is not being concerned with answering questions if it doesn't
turn out well and that, and I think the experience
(08:30):
leads into that and intuition feel all that kind of
stuff we've always talked about.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
So I think it would be natural to.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
Almost assume, which I hate to do because you know
what that does makes an ass out of you and
me according to coach Joe Sarah on the blackboard at
la Field College in nineteen seventy three.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
I think it was still true, by the way.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
Yeah, so it's like, I think all those things are
in play right there, and like you just pointed out,
even the first inning, like but when the challenge system,
just basically on the basis came into playbeing there could
be like a first the first bat of the game
could mean something like, for instance, the time and Pittsburgh
when Rizzo hit a first pitch home itd on the
right field line. They called it fair, they got together,
(09:09):
called it foul. They decided it was foul, and I
got kicked out because now the burden of proof is
on us through replay to say that it was fair,
which was impossible. It was too high, too far even
for them to overturn it. But again, it was the
first play, first pitch of the game, so you can't
overlook that. The thing that I like, again, going back
(09:31):
just a little bit here, by keeping it at two,
maybe make it to three eventually something like that.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
I don't know, but I liked so far.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
I liked the idea of a limited number and not
just having a carte Blanche, because you just don't want
to newter the umpire and the catchers, especially in this situation.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
They still want to have the skill.
Speaker 4 (09:49):
Sets of both of them being on display and nurtured,
because otherwise you did mean this in the Maybe the
right word isn't lazy. But are these guys going to
get lazy umpriars and catchers because all of a sudden
their skill set isn't as important. If I'm wrong, it's okay,
it's going to be fixed anyway. Kind of a thought process.
So I mean all these things, the human nature side
(10:09):
of things that are really hard to evaluate, almost impossible
to evaluate correct. So these are the unintended consequences that
I think can show up down the road. Again, it's
just conjecture based on my limited experience watching it on TV,
because I really do like to be boots on the
ground and a dugout watching and stuff that has always
made a difference to me. So yeah, it's an interesting topic.
(10:30):
The lot's going to be unveiled as we move it
forward in regards to a good idea abatity. But you
also one more point you made, Okay, this is now strategical,
So for some of the rules that have negated strategy.
This all of a sudden imparts or implanted strategy into
the game, maybe in a way that's again been subtracted
(10:51):
now not necessarily managerial strategy, with strategy nonetheless, so it
can be actually like a counterbalance to some of the
things that have taken away from strategical moments.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
As far as the possible down the road of adding
more challenges, that's a hard no for me, a really
hard no. I mean, right now, it's kind of a
misnomer that a team only has two challenges. You have
an unlimited number of challenges. You only have a limit
on challenges you don't get right, So listen, all the
(11:23):
research in the minor leagues show that when the challenges
per game go up to five, six or seven, it
becomes too much. It stops the game down too often,
the novelty wears off for the fans. I would even
consider going in the opposite direction, saying you only have
one more than I would go to three. I mean, listen,
they've worked this thing out through so many years, of
(11:45):
five years of change and looking at the data, they
pretty much hit on the right number, I think.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
But adding more I hope we never ever ever see more.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
As far as this was interesting, Alex Korra the Red
Sox mentioned that dugout Joe is quieter.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
Now.
Speaker 1 (12:02):
Yeah, you know, if you all don't like it, man,
don't belly ache challenge challenge it, ye right.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
I mean I got to kick out of the.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Game the other day and in the Yankees game where
I think Mike Guesterbrook was having a tough time behind
the plate and Aaron Boone was getting on him like, hey,
you got to be better, tighten it up, and he
missed five pitches and their challenge they were all overturned
and Asterbrook gotten Boone's face basically told to shut up.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
It's on you man. I mean that's the other thing
here about the Empires.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
They're being called out now, not by the dugout, but
they're being called out like the scoreboard calls out players
when they make an error. You know, it's the only
sport where you know, Baseball puts them in lights when
you make a mistake, it's identified as an error and
put up on the lights on the scoreboard.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
That's the case now with umpires.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
Yeah, that's gonna be tough on these guys. I mean,
they haven't shielded from that and probably need to be
shielded from that just to know it, because they need
to maintain their confidence. They need to go out there
and arbitrate the game in a way that everybody feels
confident about it. And you can't you know, as their
as their confidence gets impacted. Not that your shortstop, you know,
(13:11):
you shortstop whatever can have their uh confidence impacted. But
these umpires, I mean I to a certain level, they
need to be protected, I think.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
So I can understand that.
Speaker 4 (13:23):
The good part about Boonie getting on Esterbrook is the
fact that it didn't totally subtract the emotion from the game,
from the from the dugout, because that's that's always an argument.
The more technology involved, the less emotion involved from from
the players and the managers, et cetera.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
So I think it's.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
Okay, It's okay, like if if we keep getting this,
we keep getting having the challenge.
Speaker 3 (13:44):
Just it's like, it's it's just being a good manager.
Speaker 4 (13:47):
Like, so, who's gonna who else could manage the umpires
during the course of the game, unless maybe the crew
chief walk down and tells a subord and listen, hey man,
come on, let's tighten this thing up. So the manager,
being the manager of the team is also maybe in
some way now the manager of the umpires because somebody's
got a even though it's been overturned, it could get
a little bit annoying the fact that the guy is
(14:09):
missing so many this wake up I possibly. I mean,
I'm saying that because I think I can see myself
doing the same thing. So, like I said, it's like
a Pandora's box of thoughts and ideas and differences based
on this that we have not thought about. It's going
to continue to evolve and more items are going to
be presented because it is so new. So yeah, interesting,
(14:30):
and implementation has been good.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Yeah, it's We had our first walk off game ending
challenge the other day. It wasn't actually a close game,
but it Strike three call the Baltimore game Texas Baltimore
game overturned a game ended on a challenge.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
Pretty interesting.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
There is a downside to this ABS system, and I
will tell you what that downside is right after this,
when we get back on the Book of Joe.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
Welcome back to the Book of Joe. Joe. I mentioned
the downside.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
You actually hinted at this, and the downside is when
an umpire has a bad day and it happens, and
it's going to happen, and we've seen it already here.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
I mean, you had C. B.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Buckner and the fans were sort of jeering him because
the problem is when successful challenges start to mount, it's
not an indication of how good of an eye the
catchers and hitters have. It's an indication of how bad
a day the umpire is having. And I mentioned when
you start running up multiple challenges per game, it does
(15:47):
become too much. And there was again Chris Siegel calling
a game missed seven pitches, ten challenges, seven were overturned.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
CEB. Buckner had that game.
Speaker 1 (16:00):
I'm talking about eight challenges, six were over return and
Chad witson seven challenges all overturn. Those are bad days, folks,
and there's nowhere for an umpire to hide. And when
it happens on consecutive pitches, even as it happened to C. B. Buckner,
(16:20):
it's it's just to me, it's an uncomfortable look. Yeah,
we want to get them right, but that to me, Joe,
is the only downside I feel for the umpires in
these cases where they're getting called out when it starts
to be come on, tighten up, you can't be this bad,
and you become the focus as an umpire.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
That is getting a little dicey for me.
Speaker 4 (16:41):
Yeah, but I would also almost imagine that the repeat
offenders have been offensive for a bit of time. I mean,
I just like agreed, I don't need to know, but
I think that the league needs to do something about this.
Of course, these guys have ironclad tenure. They're not going anywhere.
They don't get demoted. There are some that are trying
to get to the big leagues and they go up
and up and down that kind of stuff. That's different.
(17:03):
But if you're there, you're there. And so there's got
to be some kind of method here that if you
you know, get challenged that often and are in the
negative that often, some kind of uh, you know, classroom
has got to be instituted or some kind of administrator
supervisor's got to speak to this guy and an attempt
(17:24):
to help him and and like get down to the
reason why we're missing somebody, because it'd be technique. I mean, listen,
everything is about technique. And I used to hang out
with Dick Nelson. He was in charge of the umpires
for years down in the minor leagues, and Dick had
been an umpire and come to instructional leagues and he
was they were always on top of their their umpires
and their training, and they'd.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Be, you know, very critical.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
And he used to talk to me a lot about
the techniques involved with umpiring. So I would almost bet
that some of these guys that are less than you know,
guys that are getting challenged that often and again being
and losing the challenge the umpire is losing, there's got
to there has to be some kind of technique involved,
I would believe, so something that could be addressed and
brought up the speed, like a set up differently, whatever,
(18:08):
in order to make them see things maybe a little
bit better than they than they are at this particular time.
And then you can just look at the guys that
are really good. It's a little different than looking at
a good picture, a good hitter, whatever, a good golf swing.
Technologically speaking, there's there's some there's some things that are
in there that maybe may need to be addressed on me.
They possibly already doing this, and maybe they already already
(18:29):
doing this, and I would think that would be wise.
But that would be my first thing. They're really heavy
offenders need to be reschooled a little bit more. And
I don't care really regarding their their length of time.
And nobody needs to know about this except the umpire
and question and whoever the supervisor is. I don't think
this needs to become public knowledge at all. This is
really need to be needs to be handled very carefully.
(18:51):
And this is one thing that Yeah, nobody needs to
know about. This is a not even a need to
know basis. They only need to know basis are the
group involved. But that's what I would start with right there.
Supervisionally and the technique and if there's something off and
how can we change this.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
Yeah, I think it's a good point, Joe. And if
you look at the accuracy rates among major league umpires,
first of all, the discrepancy is not as large as
a lot of people think, like the difference between at
the bottom of the end of accuracy in the top.
It's really not that these guys are really good average.
They're getting more than ninety three percent right. But then
you have a game like C. B. Buckner had where
(19:28):
he's only right eighty eight percent of the time on
his calls.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
That's alarming.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
But in terms of the accuracy, it breaks pretty much
a long age lines, Joe. I mean, the older umpires
tend not to be as good as the younger umpires.
I have a couple of theories on that. One is
that the younger umpires have been trained on this laser
guided system. It's not quote unquote their strike zone. It's
the strike zone. Also, it's just an age and physical
(19:54):
type of thing, whether it's the eyes or I think
especially the way, and you mentioned this technique, the way
you can position yourself. You know, a guy in his
late sixties just cannot get down I think in a
better position or as well as the guy in his
early thirties. And it's just interesting to me that the
younger guys tend to grade out better than the older guys.
Speaker 2 (20:13):
And it's a tough game.
Speaker 3 (20:14):
Man.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
If you've an.
Speaker 1 (20:15):
Umpire and you've been around ten fifteen years, man, have
you seen the game change, right? I mean in terms
of velocity and spin and now how the zone is
called that it's like an older hitter. You know, a
guy like Paul Goldschmid has seen velocity really change in
the course of his career. The number of fastballs being
thrown have gone way down. It's not the same game
(20:37):
it was ten years ago. So it's an interesting call.
Here's a question for you too, Jode, that brought some
people have brought this up. Should we have umpires who
are just ball and strike umpires and just have the
guys who are best at it and that's their job.
They don't do the basis And when you think about it,
an umpire now works essentially once a week behind the plate,
(20:57):
whereas a hitter is out there and the catchers for
the most part every day. A hitter in the course
of a season is going to see if he plays
every day more than three thousand pitches, not to mention
all the darn tracking that they do against virtual reality
machines and in the cage they see pitches coming into
the strike zone way more than an umpire does. What's
(21:21):
your idea that your thoughts on whether we should have
umpires just be ball strike umpires like in football, you know,
they have a certain position on the field.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
Not everybody rotates around the different positions.
Speaker 4 (21:31):
I had just written that down before you started talking.
I wrote home played umpires and based umpires question Mark.
You know there's such a thing. I mean, I know,
from a managerial perspective, when a certain guy's behind the play,
you have a lot more confidence in the game, You
feel better about it. You just know that the guy
is going to be good for both sides, because you
want them good for both sides, not just your side.
And yeah, the base umpiring, I mean, obviously that can
(21:53):
get unique guys out there, just you just need to
have that whole the field completely covered and on the
basis the ability to really challenge out there obviously also
is intact.
Speaker 3 (22:03):
And it seems just like, I.
Speaker 4 (22:05):
Don't know, is it more easily fix or is it
are they on par right now?
Speaker 3 (22:09):
Whatever?
Speaker 4 (22:09):
But yeah, I would also believe if you're a home
played umpire only I don't even know if that means
you work two games a week, I mean maybe up
to three games a week. That'd be kind of tough,
though there have to be some physical specimens. I think
doing that almost like a really good major league catcher.
If in fact that happened, these guys would have to
get paid more. I think I make a home plate umpire.
If that's what you are, I think you make more
(22:30):
money than just a base some part do you start
out as a base on par and then how do
you earn your wings by saying, well, eventually you have
the ability to earn the right to become a home
played umpire. But if you're just being a base on par,
this would be very difficult or impossible to gain confidence
in order to bring them behind a plate, and that
(22:50):
would be really create an entirely different developmental system. Although again,
if somebody knows I can make more money by being
a home played umpire, but he's going to want to
be one of those, and then maybe you wash out
in the minor leagues, Eventually they say, nope, we only
have based on piring for you because we don't just think,
we believe that you're not going to be have the
(23:10):
ability to umpire home play. So there's all these you're
talking development to me, right, and that's where.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
I started going with all of this. So it would
be tough.
Speaker 4 (23:19):
It'd be tough, I think, just physically, I do, because
it's gonna be hard to get that many guys that
were that good at calling balls and strikes and just
utilize them there. And what would that mean, like how
many games a week would these umpires be able to umpire?
Speaker 3 (23:35):
Physically?
Speaker 4 (23:36):
Well, like for me, Wilson Contraras when in the prime
really young, I wanted to catch them three days in
a row, and they give them a day off. And
then when it got later in a year when it
was really pertinent, I thought four on and then one
off was okay. So that would be a consideration. You're right,
they'd have to be younger, they'd have to be like
in great shape. They'd have to be like a training
program involved for these guys in their legs and rest
(23:59):
and diet and all this other stuff. So it's not impossible,
but there'd be a really interesting developmental process there.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Yeah, you just talked me out of it, Joe. It's
one of those things where it sounds like a good idea,
but when you actually drill down to it, I agree,
there's there's probably too many issues and things to surmount
to have.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
It really be workable.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
Let's talk about the New York Yankees, by the way,
and you talk about a team getting off to a
hot start, and by the way, they're thirteen and three.
When it comes to their challenges, everything is going the
Yankees away. So they've allowed six runs in six games.
There's only two other teams that have done that, the
nineteen fifteen Phillies and the two thousand and two Giants.
(24:46):
I mean, if you watch what the Yankees are doing,
the way they're just filling up the strike zone, Cam
Schlittler looks like he's an absolute study. Well remember people,
they didn't even have Garrett Cole and Carlos Rodonn in
the rotation right now. Max Freed has been unbelieved. And
this goes back to when he signed with the Yankees
(25:06):
as a free agent. He basically told them, I'm at
your disposal in terms of their pitching lab.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
What you want me to do with my pitch is
how I use them? What I throw. I'm open to anything.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
And they've changed them from a guy who, let's face
it was mostly four seen curveball guy pitching up and
down on the zone to a guy who now.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
Throws sweepers, cutters, sliders.
Speaker 1 (25:30):
He's moving the ball to all quadrants of the zone
like he never did before.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
He's a completely different pitcher.
Speaker 1 (25:36):
I think he's the prototypical now modern pitcher with technology
where they could do so many things to make the
ball move in all four directions north, south, east, west
on both sides of the plate. He had never been
that kind of guy. His pitch distribution would never be
this scattered. But he's got the aptitude, the ability, and
the talent to do it. The Yankees right now, Joe,
(25:58):
look like you know, they ran it back virtually the
same roster, but even without Cole and Redon, they look
like they are going to be the team to beat
in the East. And that's no disrespect to the Toronto
Blue Jays, who I picked to win that division. But
what to start from New York. They just getting home
this week for the first time.
Speaker 4 (26:16):
By the way, Yeah, I've been watching reading all the above.
They've they have been impressive, and he did. The pitching
has been that good. Their bullpens, you know, Bennar still
he got through it last night.
Speaker 3 (26:29):
I think his stuff's really good.
Speaker 4 (26:30):
But he threw like forty pitches last night, which I
think is like pretty heavy, and I'd be I really
would be concerned about that personally, especially with this involvement
in the World Baseball Classic thing, and that he's really
important to their success. He's vital to their success. So
the starting pitching has been great. The bullpen, you know,
the names are okay, I'm I'm not as he namored
with the names out of the bullpen. And of course
(26:52):
Bennar is a lofty at college guy, so I'm really
pulling for him. But I'm watching all of that. Their
offense is really clicking on all cylinders. Ben Rice, this
guy is a throwback player. He looks like he would
have been Lou Garrig's roommate. I mean, that's almost they're
both Ivy leaguers actually right, this guy's just really raw strong.
Speaker 3 (27:13):
I mean he hits. When he hits a ball, it
is absolutely mangle.
Speaker 4 (27:16):
It's I know Joel Sherman and I spoke about it
earlier this year, the comp with him and Shobert Kyle,
and there is a comp there both having caught and
then really not catching in the big leagues but being
left handed and have this incredibly strong, strong just hand,
strong hands and commanded the strikes on. So he's like,
really that vital to their success and they are there
(27:39):
we have to wait. I mean, they're clicking on all cylinders.
There's no doubt about it. I think their defense is
better McMahon. If they're in the shortstop, then a really
nice job at short stuff. I saw make a nice
play the thing I liked about the play that he
made yesterday was the fact that it was not an
easy play, but he made a throw that was kind
of awkward but accurate, and you kind of smiled afterwards.
I mean, he breathes, He's out there playing the game
(28:00):
in a very confident way. So they're gonna get better
as their pitching gets better. Yeah, I think this is
real coming off last year. The ability to engage with
one another consistently and all this like running back kind
of stuff.
Speaker 3 (28:15):
That's what everybody did for years. They brought back.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
The Yankees did it, the Cardinals did it, the Dodgers
did it, and nobody ever said anything about it. I mean,
it's just so everybody's so into flipping the page so easily.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
I think what they did was kind of good.
Speaker 4 (28:29):
And so anyway, they're pretty strong right now, and I
you know, I do agree.
Speaker 3 (28:33):
With what you're saying. I'm seeing the same thing.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
And also I wanted to mention show.
Speaker 1 (28:37):
Hey Otani of course fan favorite of this show and
everybody pretty much around baseball.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
It was great to see him make his first start again.
Speaker 1 (28:46):
This is the first time but in about three years,
that he's going into the season fully healthy. Full two
way player, not rehabbing the arm as he was last year.
What's interesting to me, Joe and I saw this in
spring training and want to get your take on this
is how he's leaning into a splitter this year like
we didn't see last year. Last year he threw only
four percent splitters in the course of the regular season,
(29:08):
got to the postseason, doubled that to eight percent, and
now here he is throwing it doubling that now fifteen
sixteen percent what we've seen in spring trending in his
first start.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
I actually think that's his best pitch.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
And I know he throws up her nineties, but that
split is just hard for anybody to square up. And
it's interesting to me to watch him throw it now
at about eighty six miles an hour. That's down from
ninety what he was throwing at last year. So listen
to Dodgers are going to be careful with show.
Speaker 3 (29:39):
Hey.
Speaker 1 (29:39):
We all know that, but man, look out major League
Baseball that show. Hey, Otani is not in rehab mode
right now on the mound. People forget I think they
forgot he's actually an ace. I mean, he's got ace
quality stuff. What's your take on, show, Hey, this year
as a pitcher.
Speaker 4 (29:55):
Well, I think his arms healed. I mean, and he
is more confident about what he's doing. And I think
the Dodgers are too. I think the less velocity is
no different than an airplane going through some turbulence. I mean,
you just back off on the velocity of the plane
to take off the stress.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
And I think the same thing with his arm.
Speaker 4 (30:11):
I think by backing off the loss, I think that's intentional.
I would bet if he wanted to throw it harder,
he can, and that may be something he's holding back
for later. The guy is very intentional. There's nothing that
happens there just by accident. So the blankets off the
arm feels better. Blessing with the Dodgers throw it more often.
But let's let's take a little stress off and see
if we could throw it in a way that it
doesn't have to be such a full effort pitch. That's
(30:33):
what it sounds like to me, and I've always for
me with him. His success I thought was directly connected
to the command of his fastball. As long as he's
throwing his fastball where he wants, when he wants to,
then the split becomes really as devastating as you're talking
about right.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Now, Joe, We're gonna take a quick break when we
get back. I can't wait to get your take on this.
The idea before a guy even plays a day in
the major leagues to give him fifty three million, ninety
five million, does it make sense. Well, it's a trend
that's happening in baseball. We'll talk about that right after
this of the Book of Joe.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
Welcome back to the Book of Joe.
Speaker 1 (31:23):
Colt Emerson, a real top ten prospect in baseball, just
sign an extension. Has not yet played in the big
leagues with the Seattle Mariners eight years, ninety five million dollars.
And that came a day or so after the Milwaukee
Brewers locked up Cooper Pratt for eight years and fifty
(31:44):
one million dollars. Cooper Pratt is twenty one years old.
Last year in DOUBLEA hit two thirty eight. He's a
defense first shortstop. I'm sure they agree he's going to
hit at some point better than he has shown right now.
Speaker 2 (31:59):
It's listening. That's very early in his career.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
But he's basically, you know, I want to say, a
typical Brewers player, but the kind of player that they like.
He can defend, he can run high baseball IQ. They
like everything they've seen Colt Emerson high offensive side infielder
with Seattle.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
What's your take, Jo on this.
Speaker 1 (32:20):
I've always thought that teams better know their home talent,
you know, better than anybody else, better than fishing in
the free agent waters. Obviously, these teams are very convicted
into what they've seen out of these players, not just statistically,
but their makeup and what their growth pattern is and
their young careers. It's an interesting take for me to
(32:40):
see teams like this, especially Milwaukee commit. They did it
with Churio Jackson. Churio signed him to eighty three million
for eight years. What do you think of this trend, Joe.
Speaker 4 (32:50):
Well, I just have to go back in time to
really understand what I think. I saw Ken Griffy Junior
in Bellingham, Washington when he was like seventeen or eighteen
years old, hit a ball very far out of that
ballpark to right field, and everybody was talking about him
the pedigree. So would you, you know, push the clock
forward if Ken Griffyth Junior was in your minor league system,
(33:10):
would you want to do the same thing I saw
Alex Rodriguez when he was talking against the Mariners. I
saw him when he was like again seventeen or eighteen,
make a play up the middle in Peoria, an instructional
league that I thought, Oh my god, I mean, who
else is going to make that play?
Speaker 3 (33:26):
Right? I saw Gary Sheffield.
Speaker 4 (33:27):
I was standing next to him at third base and
instructional league again in Peoria, and he's with the Brewers
in a young Gary Sheffield. I mean, look at what
I saw back then? Would you not give him a
bunch of dough two Barry bonds? I saw him at
Arizona State. Then I see him in the minor leagues
or whatever.
Speaker 3 (33:44):
I think this.
Speaker 4 (33:44):
You know, these guys have existed forever, but now it's
just a little bit more in vogue. To do this way,
I would be still be wary of it. Just backtuning.
I'd have to see these guys in with my own
eyeballs in order to tell you exactly what I think
about this. I could vouch for the guys that I
just brought up because I saw them and these guys
(34:05):
that they're talking about now. I know it's different times
and there's different methods being employed. I would say analytically,
if you know, based on the metrics involved and how
they're devising all this, I'm sure that they Again, this
is a situation where analytics provides the safety in it
because if it doesn't work out, what we had, everybody
was on board everything, The numbers are in order, and
(34:25):
the projection wise is all there, and everybody saw the
same things. They're talking about exit velocity, you know, when
there's running speed, bat speed, arm speed whatever they're so
they're utilizing a different method of scouting in order to
project and permit the organization paying these numbers at such
an early age. But I don't want people to be
deceived and think that all of a sudden, there's these
prodigies now that didn't exist back then, because they did.
(34:48):
These prodigies did exist back then. So I just think
it's a method, a method that's being employed right now.
Speaker 3 (34:56):
I can't say that it's better or worse.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
The interesting thing there was you talked about one player
that was locked up because of his defense. He got
less money as oppos So the guy that was locked
up first potential on offense, which was more money.
Speaker 3 (35:08):
To me.
Speaker 4 (35:08):
The docking somebody up based on defense would be a
better bet because when you projected on defense, you normally
could project the guy's already has a better number to
begin with, and the projection isn't as dramatic, whereas normally
the hitting projection's got to be more dramatic and permits
are more projection in regards to like going from a
(35:28):
thirty to eighty hit or whatever. So it's an interesting concept.
But again, I as a Scott, I'd have to see
these guys. And again, the way the decision is supported
now is different than Jack mckin with a cigar in
the room whomever saying that we're going to give this
guy this kind of a contract and we're going to
(35:50):
buy him out whatever, and we're gonna give him that
kind of money before he's played a moment in the
big leagues, which I think would have been heard of
back then.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
Well, it's interesting because I don't think we're talking about
prodigies in either case here. Like you mentioned, you know,
the Griffies Sheffield. I mean, those guys just jump out
and yeah, you would sign them in a heartbeat. It
doesn't take you know, the most seasoned scout to realize
those guys were going to be stars. You saw it
with Longoria. I think I would do this with Connor Griffin,
(36:21):
the young shortstop of the Pirates, number one prospect in baseball,
nineteen years old, just turning twenty. That to me is
what the scouts might put if not an eighty hitter
or a seventy hitter. What we're talking about here are
I don't want to say complimentary players, but just to
give you an example, the money that Seattle is giving
(36:42):
Colt Emerson is about equivalent to what Austin Riley is
making in his first eight years in the big league.
So you're betting that Colt Emerson is going to be
an Austin Riley type player at least if he's better,
then you got yourself a bargain. And Austin Riley's a
really good player, right. I'm not saying he's not a
good player. He's not King Griffy Jr. But he's a
(37:03):
good player. As far as Cooper Pratt, the comp in
terms of the money they're paying him is JP Crawford, again,
good player. I wouldn't say, you know, he's a prodigy
or an outlier, top of the spectrum eighty hitter at all.
So if you look back Joe. It's scouty, as you know,
(37:24):
is so hard. Other than the guys that some of
the guys you mentioned who just jump off the page,
you can tell they're going to be stars. And you're
really not wrong too often with the guys at the
top of the draft anyway. But here are the guys
who have signed extensions before they played a day in
the major leagues. And I want you to tell me
whether so far it's worked out well or not.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
In some cases it's we're not too deep in the contract.
Speaker 3 (37:49):
Yeah, very good.
Speaker 1 (37:50):
Jackson Curio, I'd say that worked out well. What'd you say?
Pretty good?
Speaker 3 (37:54):
Right?
Speaker 1 (37:55):
It looks like they made a good bet on him.
Luis Robert Jr. White Sox No. I would say no.
I think he's been a disappointment, largely health related. Eloi Jimenez.
What would you say about Alloy Jimenez? Is it worth
locking that guy up? You say no.
Speaker 2 (38:13):
Colt Keith the Tigers locked up.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
We've only had one year, but he's not even an
everyday player for the most part. Scott Kingrey the Phillies,
that's a no. Evan White, the Mariners, that's a no.
John Singleton the Astros, that's a. No, those are the
only players have signed contracts before they became big leaguers.
That's not a high hit rate. I think it speaks
(38:37):
to how difficult it is to know even your own players.
So you give these guys money, you give them that contract,
that love the fact that it takes out a lot
of worry for these players. You know, why would the
young players sign one of these deals? Well, your set
just go play now, you don't worry about going year
by year downside?
Speaker 2 (38:56):
Is players not as good as you think?
Speaker 4 (38:59):
Well again, I'm Quebec could just go down memory lane
for a bit. I mean, and I'm going to be
I'm not even being biased here. How about my Angels
outfield that we had in the nineties as an instructor
that eventually kind of when the world one guy was
missing with winning the World Series. You're talking about Garrett Anderson,
Darren Erstad, Jimmy Edmunds, and Timothy Salmon. Dude, If those
(39:21):
guys are coming up with one group right now, right,
I mean, that would be the talk of baseball, that
particular group right there. Then then you pop Troy Gloss
at third base, and look at what Roy did over
the course of his career. Benji Molina as a catcher
what he did also, and he started out very slowly.
But the point is, I mean we, I think we
tend to exaggerate a little bit what's going on right now.
Speaker 3 (39:42):
But if you comp out and I don't want to
be that guy.
Speaker 4 (39:45):
I'm just saying the guys of the past, because I
keep printing about these incredible athletes of today. I saw
incredible athleticism back then at Devon White I had Mark
McLam I mean, these guys are like really athletically good.
They turn out to be really good baseball players, and
that if they were coming down the pike right now, God,
they would be They'd be like in all these different lists.
(40:08):
I'd say, in the top fifty in all these lists
that we would read on a daily basis. So it's
just a different way. It's a different method of evaluation.
But again, the old methods of scouting were is equally
as good. If I don't want to say better because
then people are gonna there's no way for me to
prove that. But the old methods of scouting with dudes
like getting in their car, driving all over the country
(40:29):
and bringing back players to an organization pretty darn good,
pretty darn good. And the difference would be we had
more chances. I mean, there was more guys drapped it.
There was more guys, there was more minor leagues, there
was more guys in organizations, there was more development going on.
Speaker 3 (40:41):
It was more and more and more of all of
that compared to now.
Speaker 4 (40:44):
I think now they feel like they can't be wrong
because they have less opportunities to develop these guys they need,
they need more of a finished product as opposed to
weight weight weight in a minor league situation, rookie ball,
two levels of rookie ball low, A high, A, double A,
triple A, and then even a couple Latin Americans team.
So it's just it's a different method involved. I'm here
(41:07):
to tell you I think the older method is the
former method is the better method in regards to the
player development. That's I think that's easy to defend. So
now they're locking up of these guys again. It's just
it's a different method of evaluating these players and the
fact that when you're able to come on board as
a group based on math, I think it's easier when
(41:30):
they're wrong to defend a decision.
Speaker 3 (41:33):
I think that's right.
Speaker 2 (41:34):
Yeah, it's always been.
Speaker 1 (41:36):
I mean, I have so much respect for the scouts
who have to make these calls.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
It's always been a very difficult art, more so than
a science, that's right.
Speaker 3 (41:45):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (41:46):
Going back to twenty seventeen, if you took the top
ten prospects in baseball, because we hear these terms all
the time, right as you mentioned Joe, these lists, and
we think about top ten lists like, oh, that guy
is guaranteed to make it. Just to keep this in
mind here, in twenty seventeen, top ten prospects in baseball
(42:06):
included jan Mancata, Ahmed Rosario, Alex Reyes, Victor Roblace, and
Austin Meadows. Those are misses. Those are five of the
top ten I would call misses. So it has I
don't think it's gotten any easier to make calls on
these young players.
Speaker 2 (42:24):
No matter what measurements we have to measure the skill set.
Speaker 4 (42:28):
I still would like to see a more patient method
of development. There's a lot of impatients with that. You
are seeing some very young players get up there and
become stars quickly. But that's always been that way. I
don't think that it's given enough credit. What Robin you did,
or we could go down the list like in a
young Griffia, young Alex Rodriguez.
Speaker 3 (42:48):
It's always there's always been the prodigies.
Speaker 4 (42:49):
There's always been prodigies, but then the overall arching development
of others. And there's power numbers, for sure. I don't
think anybody can argue that. I just think if you
had the ability to maintain a larger develop mental system
with more more players, more more real coaches, more baseball
being taught. You know, I don't even know if I've
(43:10):
been noticing this or not, but our home runs down?
Is that like, is there more runs being developed right
now through base hits and is more situational hitting become
more of an art form again? Or am I just
is this just a small sample size.
Speaker 1 (43:23):
I think that's a strikeout rate actually has gone down
a little bit.
Speaker 2 (43:27):
I think that's okay. Get here.
Speaker 1 (43:28):
Yeah, I think there is a little bit more emphasis
on that for sure. And that's why so many people
loved watching the Toronto Blue Jays in the postseason last year.
Speaker 4 (43:36):
Yeah, I thought's because what I do is I'll watch
a game occasionally, but I'm so busy watching the Atlanta
Hawks right now. Beat up on the Orlando Magic like
last night. So I'm involved in there a little bit.
But in the morning, I sit down and go through
the MLB app and I'll just watch the highlights, and
it's just not been bludgeoning, you know. I'm just seeing
like I'm just seeing some better at baths like you're
(43:56):
suggesting right there. I'm just curious if that's going to
become part of the landscape. Again, it's a it is
a copycat league. Off somebody does well, obviously the next
year everybody goes to spring training and wants to emulate
that group. Nothing wrong with that, with it. For me,
with this, I listen, I want it all. I want
the three run homer. I want the ability to score
a run from third with less than two outs by
(44:17):
putting the ball in play. I want the runner moved
from second to third with nobody out, you know. I
want pitchers that are able to throw strikes and get
the third time through the batting order by being able
to throw a strike when they want to, not necessarily
all the time. I want, you know, great base running
when guy's going from first to third, second to home,
and even first to home on the ball in a gap.
I mean, all these things are they should never h
(44:39):
they should always be invoked.
Speaker 3 (44:40):
I think I'm seeing some of that right now. It
should be awesome.
Speaker 1 (44:43):
Yeah, strikeout rate has gone down each of the last
two years. It's been a long time since that that
curve started going down two consecutive years. Now it's up
so far this year, but so early. I don't put
any stock in that. It's only one week of play.
Speaker 3 (44:58):
Too cold.
Speaker 2 (44:58):
Yeah, yeah, But.
Speaker 1 (45:01):
At this point, Joe, I'm gonna tap my head for
a challenge, and the challenge is to you, very nice,
to bring us home here on the book of Joe.
Speaker 2 (45:09):
What do you got for us this week?
Speaker 4 (45:11):
Well, I'm just well, you know, watching some tough losses.
Teams lose, but they play hard and they try to
do well and all this stuff or just.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
Just a bad day. You know, we all have bad days.
Speaker 4 (45:21):
And the one thing I always used to go to
some of my players with the line after a bad
moment is just to re really trust the power of
twenty four hours. Twenty four hours can be very powerful.
You can go from your worst to your best day
expecting something wonderful to happen. So today I actually found
something that substantiated that, and it came from Admiral William
(45:46):
McRaven his insights on resilience. He said, even the worst
days only last twenty four hours. The quote serves as
a reminder that tough times are temporary, encouraging optimism and
the belief that tomorrow brings a fresh start. It highlights
that no bad situation lasts and definitely which I think
we all have a tendency to do, and it really
gets in the way and it couldn't impact today, And
(46:09):
you really never want to put a negative vibe on
today because even if it starts out, even if that
first drive you know, goes into ob whatever, you still
got seventeen hosts to recover. So I'm a big believer
in the power of twenty four hours. I use that
with my family a lot, my kids, my grandkids a lot,
and people that I know that I really respect and love.
(46:29):
So even the worst days only the last twenty four hours.
Speaker 3 (46:32):
Hang in there, baby.
Speaker 2 (46:33):
Oh.
Speaker 1 (46:33):
It's a good message for Alex Cora to give his
Red Sox. Right six games, are already four games behind
the Yankees and they come home for their home opener
one in five. I don't know how you felt about
those first weeks, Joe, But man, you want to start
putting some wins on the scoreboard and not be playing uphill.
Speaker 3 (46:55):
Two things.
Speaker 4 (46:55):
First of all, of course, the Red Sox fans will
be very nourishing in their response. And the second, I
remember the one in seven rays going to Chicago, and
I had the toast on the airplane. It's some really
good stuff, some Sharbay whiskey from NAPA and went through
and I passed out the little urine sample cups and
their brand new the previously used, and I fled some
(47:20):
Sharbay and them thank you. I had to qualify that yet,
and I toasted the best one in seven team in
history of Major League Baseball. And eventually we've talked about this.
We did make the playoffs, and we did lose in
the playoffs, and eventually I did to say went through
the same thing, and I just said, apparently I was right.
This is the best team one in seven team in
(47:40):
history of Major League Baseball. So listen, it's all how
you frame it. You got to believe this stuff. Believe it,
and you'll see it. A lot of people have to
see it to believe it. If you believe it, you'll
eventually see it. That's the optimistic vibe you have to
carry with you every day. And again, recently I read
that little piece from one of I think branch Rickey's
daughters and granddaughters. I loved it, and I passed it
(48:02):
along to a lot of folks. But to expect some
thing wonderful to happen today, and if you do that,
it's going to show up at some point, since we
all have this tendency to exaggerate our plight, and remember
even the worst days only last twenty four hours.
Speaker 1 (48:17):
Great stuff, Joe, We'll see you next time, all right, brother,
have a good week. The Book of Joe podcast is
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