June 12, 2026 • 15 mins
In this episode of The Buck Sexton Show, Buck delivers a deep-dive analysis into the breaking developments surrounding a potential U.S.–Iran nuclear deal under President Donald Trump, examining whether a diplomatic agreement is truly imminent or still uncertain. Buck outlines what a realistic Trump-brokered Iran deal would involve, including strict nuclear limits, enforcement mechanisms, enhanced inspections, sanctions pressure, and regional coordination with allies like Israel and Gulf states. He contrasts this approach with the Obama-era Iran deal, emphasizing the need for verifiable compliance, snapback sanctions, and strategic leverage to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program. The episode explores key geopolitical factors such as oil markets, the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran’s support for proxy groups, framing the agreement as a potential turning point in Middle East security and U.S. foreign policy.
Buck also provides a candid assessment of potential outcomes, expressing skepticism that Iran will fully comply and warning that cheating or stalling tactics are likely scenarios. He then pivots to a second, more aggressive path: escalating pressure through military and economic action, including a detailed breakdown of the strategic importance of Karg Island, Iran’s primary oil export hub. Buck explains how targeting this critical infrastructure could cripple Iran’s economy and force concessions, while also acknowledging the risks of military escalation, regional instability, and global oil price shocks.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
App or wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Trump says, an Iran deal is done, just waiting to
be signed, and then we'll have to see as the
ink dries what is in the deal. Now, as you
listen to this, you might even know more than me,
because I'm speaking on Thursday afternoon evening about this based
(00:40):
on what the latest is from the White House. Maybe
by Friday there's a deal. I doubt that we will
have the specifics. Then I doubt that we will know
much about what is even agreed to, and we may
even be told that the agreement does not hold. So
we shall meaning that the agreement to sign, never mind
what's in it. So we got to get straight here
(01:02):
about where things stand with President Trump and Iran right now.
The timeline here, if you remember, we started these strikes
strikes in the end of February I think was February
twenty eighth, and tensions have been high. Even after the
strikes dried down into something of a ceasefire.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
We've had the straight.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
Of Hormuze mess and the prospect here of maybe going
in and getting Iran's remnant nuclear material, maybe taking carg Island.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
We'll talk about that as well.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Trump has been clear in all of this he's driving
for a deal that he says actually works for America,
and unlike the very weak, very weak Obama era JCPOA,
which he discarded and said was the worst deal, he's actually,
i think said it is the worst deal ever. So
if Trump lands the plane, so to speak, on this one,
(01:57):
and he has said and the reporting suggests, we are
in the very last phase before a potential signing, let's
first look at what a realistic Trump broker agreement would
look like. So it's not going to be some multilateral
European style love fest where we're just holding Iran's coat
(02:18):
and pretending to hold them to account. Trump means to
use leverage here and maximum pressure in the background so
that there will be sanctions that really bite and mechanisms
in place to force compliance, first of all, to know
if they are complying with the deal, and to force compliance.
And that's why he's put allies in the loop, like Israel,
(02:42):
Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States, because this is going
to be in all hands on deck effort to finally
rein in and stop the mad Mullahs from their nuclear quest.
So there would probably be in the deal based on
everything I've seen so far, including some direct contact with
the White House about this, there would be a extended
(03:06):
ceasefire sixty days or more to make sure that the
strait of Horror Moves is completely open for oil traffic.
Now that's going to be very important because that would
ease some of the oil price pressure, which we know
is a major political liability here at home. In response
(03:27):
for this, Iran would get some limited sanctions relief tied
to verifiable actions on oil sales, but it wouldn't be
a total opening of the floodgates like what you had
under the Obama JCPOA. And in return for this, Tehran
is going to have to prove agree to abandon its
(03:48):
nuclear breakout capability and prove that it has done so
and essentially made it impossible to go back on its
word in the future without triggering some of the mechanisms
that would jump in and punish them for this right.
So essentially they couldn't get away with trying to restart
the program. And if they do restart the program, we
(04:09):
have a big hammer in place to drop on them.
So this would be a total moratorium on any high
level uranium enrichment. It would be the removal of nuclear
grades of weapons grades. Stockpiles that they already have are
enrich stockpiles. They already have restrictions on their natons four
(04:30):
down Isfahan facilities. If they are going to be brought
back into any form of operation have to be under
very close oversight. There would also be some agreements. I
think again I'm surmising here. We have not seen what
the deal structure is, but based on what Trump has said,
there would be the inclusion, and this was a huge
(04:52):
hole in the Obama jcpoa Iran debacle ballistic missiles. There
would have to be an agreement that Iran would not
be pursuing ballistic missile production and technology in the way
that it has, and also regional proxies. So that would
mean Iran can't just keep arm has blah the Huthis
and others, or some of the sanctions and some of
(05:14):
the bite if you will, goes right back.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Into place on all this.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
So Trump has floated broader talks on sanctioned relief phase
with compliance but snap back provisions need to be in
place because they might cheat. They probably will cheat, and
if they think they can get away with cheating, they
definitely will.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
As long as the oil flows for them.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
With some adult supervision, if you will, then they should
be happy that their economy isn't completely on its ass
and move forward knowing that we have a lot of
leverage still in place. But there would be no lifting
of course sanctions on terrorism or their human rights abuses
as part of this agreement. So this would this is
(06:01):
what it would look like if Trump has effectively used
the strength of the United States here to force a
better outcome, then repeat we did over and over again
war the mowing the grass strategy against Iran, or the
sunset clauses that the JCPOA the Obama deal had which
were total, total joke. So this is what it looks
(06:22):
like now in terms of verification. And that's as I said,
where the Obama deal was just a complete and utter catastrophe.
This new deal that Trump has would have to build
on IAEA safeguards but with Trump era realism, right, So
we're talking the key points here. Robust IAEA access International
(06:44):
Atomic Energy Agency.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
By the way, IEA.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
Additional protocols for those snap inspections that declared and undeclared
sites with twenty four hours or less. That way, they
can't just hide, clean up, obfuscate. You're gonna have to
have continuous monitoring, cameras, seals in real time data on
centrifuge's enrichment levels capped very low like three point sixty
(07:08):
seven percent or below for civilian use, stockpile limits, dismantling
or disabling key infrastructure where needed, and all verified on
the ground.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Now, this is the thing.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
The devil's in the details, and there's a lot of
details here, but this is what has been under discussion,
and like I said, I've discussed this briefly with the
White House in the last few weeks. There'd have to
be monitoring by not just the US, but this joint commission,
if you will, that's being set up currently with our
allies in the region, and there'd have to be intelligence
(07:42):
sharing ongoing with Israel and others to verify what's going
on because IAEA reports aren't alone going to be enough
for US IEA misses. Things, you'd have to have on
site inspectors with expanded rights environmental sampling for checking out
if they're doing any covert illicit activity, restrictions on dual
(08:04):
use imports. By the way, this is a lot of
the Iraq sanctions stuff reducts and that's why I get
that a rock tingle from a lot of the things
that we're talking about here. And if Iran blocks access
to the inspectors, for example, or does anything, there have
to be immediate consequences, more strikes, tighter sanctions. I mean,
(08:25):
you have to really keep your if your foot is
not on Iran's neck, you have to keep your foot
just hovering above it because we know they'll cheat. So
there can't be any paper promises here. Think of this
as trust but verify on steroids. You'd have military readiness
as the backstop to all of this. And this setup
(08:45):
would give us eyes on their program for years to come.
Let their economy either sink or swim based on whether
they're willing to play ball with us. And I'm going
to tell you something right now. This is the optimistic
That is a best case scenario. What I just laid out,
that's the best case scenario. Do I think that we
are heading for that best case scenario? I do not,
(09:09):
But I wanted to let out for you. That could
be it. I could be wrong. I don't think I am.
I'm going to tell you what I think is a
more likely scenario in just a second. Our sponsor here
is super Shore. Let me let you in on something.
When you sign for your insurance policy. For some brokers,
that's the finish line, handshake commission. They're done. You might
not hear from them again until it's time for renewal.
(09:29):
Your business runs all year, and so do the gaps
and the risks. That's why we're introducing Supersure. If your
company has more than twenty five employees, whether you're the owners,
CFO or HR manager, it can be too complex.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
You just buy a policy online.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Supersure is the super agency built for you, licensed in
every state for your business insurance and employee benefits, all
with year round support for you and your team. At
supershore dot com slash buck you can access tools like
fine print Facts, which translates your current policy into play
in English so you can see what's covered and what's not.
Plus a business value calculators you can estimate what your
(10:03):
business is worth so you know what actually needs protecting.
Go to supershore dot com slash buck. That's super sure
com slash buck one super agency, one powerful platform, all
your policies in one place, super short dot com slash Buck. Okay,
I don't think this is gonna work. I don't think
Iran is going to actually concede to all of these things.
(10:24):
I think if Iron does concede and sign the deal
within short order, meaning within twelve months, we'll see that
they are just cheating all over the place. And what
they're hoping, I think, is that Trump loses control of
the least that his party loses the control of the
House in the midterms, So you have divided government and
you have a lot more pressure to bring against continued
(10:46):
Trump military strikes against Iran.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
That's what I think. That's the game I think they're playing.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
So then you have option to here pathway two, turning
up the heat even more than what we've seen. Essentially,
they either balk at signing the deal officially Oran or
it becomes clear very quickly, meaning within weeks not months,
that they're just gonna stall, cheat, do everything they can.
(11:15):
So if that diplomacy stalls, Trump could go for more
than just these air strikes, and he's already signaled it
signaled what he might do that maximum pressure approach would
go for Iran's economic jugular. Carg Island enters the Chat,
a tiny speck in the Persian Gulf. It's about sixteen
to twenty miles off Iran's coast. It's roughly four hundred
(11:37):
miles northwest of the Straight of Hormuz. And this place
isn't just important, it's the beating heart of Iran's oil economy.
Carg Island handles eighty five to ninety five percent or
more of Iran's crude oil exports. Think millions of barrels
per day capacity pipe from the mainland loaded onto tankers.
It's their primary export terminal, a lifeline generating the revenue
(11:58):
that funds the regime, the IRGC proxies, missiles, nuclear ambitions,
all of it. Without carg Island, Iran's ability to sell
oil collapses pretty much overnight, and their budget, which is
already strained by sanctions and conflict, takes a catastrophic hit.
Global oil prices spike, and the pain is asymmetric, though,
(12:18):
because the Iranians, their economy is going to be just
in the tank. It's just going to be destroyed, seizing
and neutralizing Carg Island chokes their funding, exposes how weak
the regime actually is the Iranian people, and could even theoretically,
although I'm not banking on this, accelerate internal collapse and
regime change without a full scale invasion of the mainland.
(12:40):
Now that would be a best case scenario carg Island.
If that actually brought about a regime change, I don't
think that is going to happen.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
Here's the challenge, of course. Taking it is not simple.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
This would be a high stakes joint military operation requiring
extreme and overwhelming US precision and superiority. The island is small,
it's about twenty square kilometers, but it is heavily fortified.
So Iran has air defenses, radars, missile sites, drones, mines,
and ground forces there, plus easy reinforcement from the mainland
(13:14):
via missiles and drone swarms. So US planners would have
to first achieve total air and sea superiority in and
around Carg Island. They'd have to suppress enemy air defenses
with stealth strikes, Tomahawks, and electronic warfare from carrier groups
in the Gulf. Navy and Air Force assets would clear
the paths. We're talking f thirty fives B twos if needed,
(13:34):
destroyers for missile barrages.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Then comes the insertion.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
I mean the troops likely a mix of marine expeditionary units,
perhaps for amphibious assault, army rangers or Tier one units
even like zeal Team six Delta, depending on what targets
they're going for. This would be an airborne helly born assault,
(13:58):
probably at night. You'd have apatche gunships in the mix,
Blackhawks and nooks.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
You'd have to have rapid.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
Seizure of key terminals, storage tanks, loading facilities, and power
infrastructure while minimizing long term damage so that you can
actually control and operate this. You're not just trying to
nuke it right, so to speak. You're not just trying
to blow the whole island up. And that means also
sustained air defense. Once you take it, you got to
protect it, so you'd have Patriot missiles, the ageous cruiser.
(14:24):
From the naval side, you'd have to have logistics for troops,
counter drone and missile operations, and engineering to secure repair facilities.
And you might take some pretty serious casualties here. Iran
can't stop us from taking the island, but they might
be able to extract a real plight, real price in blood.
(14:46):
So if we are able to take or disabled Carggough
for Iran, it's economic armour geddon. Oil revenue, which is
their main hard currency source, completely plummets. The regime wouldn't
be able to pay salaries, or fund terror networks, or
sustain the military. You probably have hyperinflation kick in and
possible fractures in the IRGC and the clerical elite. You
(15:06):
have unrest in the streets. Proxies lose funding, which means
Hezbolahuthi's all the rest of them are weakened. Forces Iran
to the table on US terms, basically having the knee
bent for them, And there would be some disruptions of
course in Gulf shipping and oil, but the US naval
presence could stabilize it over time. So that's the other
(15:30):
option here, And I got to tell you, I think
it's got to be one or the other because this
game of wait and see, a little bit of pressure,
a little bit of strikes. We're almost at a deal.
We either have a deal. We got to hit them
a lot harder. I think Trump recognizes that telling us
the deal is done when it's not done, is not
going to get it done. So that's how I see
(15:50):
this playing out. We'll have more updates for you as
it goes. Shield Time
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
App or wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Trump says, an Iran deal is done, just waiting to
be signed, and then we'll have to see as the
ink dries what is in the deal. Now, as you
listen to this, you might even know more than me,
because I'm speaking on Thursday afternoon evening about this based
(00:40):
on what the latest is from the White House. Maybe
by Friday there's a deal. I doubt that we will
have the specifics. Then I doubt that we will know
much about what is even agreed to, and we may
even be told that the agreement does not hold. So
we shall meaning that the agreement to sign, never mind
what's in it. So we got to get straight here
(01:02):
about where things stand with President Trump and Iran right now.
The timeline here, if you remember, we started these strikes
strikes in the end of February I think was February
twenty eighth, and tensions have been high. Even after the
strikes dried down into something of a ceasefire.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
We've had the straight.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
Of Hormuze mess and the prospect here of maybe going
in and getting Iran's remnant nuclear material, maybe taking carg Island.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
We'll talk about that as well.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Trump has been clear in all of this he's driving
for a deal that he says actually works for America,
and unlike the very weak, very weak Obama era JCPOA,
which he discarded and said was the worst deal, he's actually,
i think said it is the worst deal ever. So
if Trump lands the plane, so to speak, on this one,
(01:57):
and he has said and the reporting suggests, we are
in the very last phase before a potential signing, let's
first look at what a realistic Trump broker agreement would
look like. So it's not going to be some multilateral
European style love fest where we're just holding Iran's coat
(02:18):
and pretending to hold them to account. Trump means to
use leverage here and maximum pressure in the background so
that there will be sanctions that really bite and mechanisms
in place to force compliance, first of all, to know
if they are complying with the deal, and to force compliance.
And that's why he's put allies in the loop, like Israel,
(02:42):
Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States, because this is going
to be in all hands on deck effort to finally
rein in and stop the mad Mullahs from their nuclear quest.
So there would probably be in the deal based on
everything I've seen so far, including some direct contact with
the White House about this, there would be a extended
(03:06):
ceasefire sixty days or more to make sure that the
strait of Horror Moves is completely open for oil traffic.
Now that's going to be very important because that would
ease some of the oil price pressure, which we know
is a major political liability here at home. In response
(03:27):
for this, Iran would get some limited sanctions relief tied
to verifiable actions on oil sales, but it wouldn't be
a total opening of the floodgates like what you had
under the Obama JCPOA. And in return for this, Tehran
is going to have to prove agree to abandon its
(03:48):
nuclear breakout capability and prove that it has done so
and essentially made it impossible to go back on its
word in the future without triggering some of the mechanisms
that would jump in and punish them for this right.
So essentially they couldn't get away with trying to restart
the program. And if they do restart the program, we
(04:09):
have a big hammer in place to drop on them.
So this would be a total moratorium on any high
level uranium enrichment. It would be the removal of nuclear
grades of weapons grades. Stockpiles that they already have are
enrich stockpiles. They already have restrictions on their natons four
(04:30):
down Isfahan facilities. If they are going to be brought
back into any form of operation have to be under
very close oversight. There would also be some agreements. I
think again I'm surmising here. We have not seen what
the deal structure is, but based on what Trump has said,
there would be the inclusion, and this was a huge
(04:52):
hole in the Obama jcpoa Iran debacle ballistic missiles. There
would have to be an agreement that Iran would not
be pursuing ballistic missile production and technology in the way
that it has, and also regional proxies. So that would
mean Iran can't just keep arm has blah the Huthis
and others, or some of the sanctions and some of
(05:14):
the bite if you will, goes right back.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Into place on all this.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
So Trump has floated broader talks on sanctioned relief phase
with compliance but snap back provisions need to be in
place because they might cheat. They probably will cheat, and
if they think they can get away with cheating, they
definitely will.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
As long as the oil flows for them.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
With some adult supervision, if you will, then they should
be happy that their economy isn't completely on its ass
and move forward knowing that we have a lot of
leverage still in place. But there would be no lifting
of course sanctions on terrorism or their human rights abuses
as part of this agreement. So this would this is
(06:01):
what it would look like if Trump has effectively used
the strength of the United States here to force a
better outcome, then repeat we did over and over again
war the mowing the grass strategy against Iran, or the
sunset clauses that the JCPOA the Obama deal had which
were total, total joke. So this is what it looks
(06:22):
like now in terms of verification. And that's as I said,
where the Obama deal was just a complete and utter catastrophe.
This new deal that Trump has would have to build
on IAEA safeguards but with Trump era realism, right, So
we're talking the key points here. Robust IAEA access International
(06:44):
Atomic Energy Agency.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
By the way, IEA.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
Additional protocols for those snap inspections that declared and undeclared
sites with twenty four hours or less. That way, they
can't just hide, clean up, obfuscate. You're gonna have to
have continuous monitoring, cameras, seals in real time data on
centrifuge's enrichment levels capped very low like three point sixty
(07:08):
seven percent or below for civilian use, stockpile limits, dismantling
or disabling key infrastructure where needed, and all verified on
the ground.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Now, this is the thing.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
The devil's in the details, and there's a lot of
details here, but this is what has been under discussion,
and like I said, I've discussed this briefly with the
White House in the last few weeks. There'd have to
be monitoring by not just the US, but this joint commission,
if you will, that's being set up currently with our
allies in the region, and there'd have to be intelligence
(07:42):
sharing ongoing with Israel and others to verify what's going
on because IAEA reports aren't alone going to be enough
for US IEA misses. Things, you'd have to have on
site inspectors with expanded rights environmental sampling for checking out
if they're doing any covert illicit activity, restrictions on dual
(08:04):
use imports. By the way, this is a lot of
the Iraq sanctions stuff reducts and that's why I get
that a rock tingle from a lot of the things
that we're talking about here. And if Iran blocks access
to the inspectors, for example, or does anything, there have
to be immediate consequences, more strikes, tighter sanctions. I mean,
(08:25):
you have to really keep your if your foot is
not on Iran's neck, you have to keep your foot
just hovering above it because we know they'll cheat. So
there can't be any paper promises here. Think of this
as trust but verify on steroids. You'd have military readiness
as the backstop to all of this. And this setup
(08:45):
would give us eyes on their program for years to come.
Let their economy either sink or swim based on whether
they're willing to play ball with us. And I'm going
to tell you something right now. This is the optimistic
That is a best case scenario. What I just laid out,
that's the best case scenario. Do I think that we
are heading for that best case scenario? I do not,
(09:09):
But I wanted to let out for you. That could
be it. I could be wrong. I don't think I am.
I'm going to tell you what I think is a
more likely scenario in just a second. Our sponsor here
is super Shore. Let me let you in on something.
When you sign for your insurance policy. For some brokers,
that's the finish line, handshake commission. They're done. You might
not hear from them again until it's time for renewal.
(09:29):
Your business runs all year, and so do the gaps
and the risks. That's why we're introducing Supersure. If your
company has more than twenty five employees, whether you're the owners,
CFO or HR manager, it can be too complex.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
You just buy a policy online.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Supersure is the super agency built for you, licensed in
every state for your business insurance and employee benefits, all
with year round support for you and your team. At
supershore dot com slash buck you can access tools like
fine print Facts, which translates your current policy into play
in English so you can see what's covered and what's not.
Plus a business value calculators you can estimate what your
(10:03):
business is worth so you know what actually needs protecting.
Go to supershore dot com slash buck. That's super sure
com slash buck one super agency, one powerful platform, all
your policies in one place, super short dot com slash Buck. Okay,
I don't think this is gonna work. I don't think
Iran is going to actually concede to all of these things.
(10:24):
I think if Iron does concede and sign the deal
within short order, meaning within twelve months, we'll see that
they are just cheating all over the place. And what
they're hoping, I think, is that Trump loses control of
the least that his party loses the control of the
House in the midterms, So you have divided government and
you have a lot more pressure to bring against continued
(10:46):
Trump military strikes against Iran.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
That's what I think. That's the game I think they're playing.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
So then you have option to here pathway two, turning
up the heat even more than what we've seen. Essentially,
they either balk at signing the deal officially Oran or
it becomes clear very quickly, meaning within weeks not months,
that they're just gonna stall, cheat, do everything they can.
(11:15):
So if that diplomacy stalls, Trump could go for more
than just these air strikes, and he's already signaled it
signaled what he might do that maximum pressure approach would
go for Iran's economic jugular. Carg Island enters the Chat,
a tiny speck in the Persian Gulf. It's about sixteen
to twenty miles off Iran's coast. It's roughly four hundred
(11:37):
miles northwest of the Straight of Hormuz. And this place
isn't just important, it's the beating heart of Iran's oil economy.
Carg Island handles eighty five to ninety five percent or
more of Iran's crude oil exports. Think millions of barrels
per day capacity pipe from the mainland loaded onto tankers.
It's their primary export terminal, a lifeline generating the revenue
(11:58):
that funds the regime, the IRGC proxies, missiles, nuclear ambitions,
all of it. Without carg Island, Iran's ability to sell
oil collapses pretty much overnight, and their budget, which is
already strained by sanctions and conflict, takes a catastrophic hit.
Global oil prices spike, and the pain is asymmetric, though,
(12:18):
because the Iranians, their economy is going to be just
in the tank. It's just going to be destroyed, seizing
and neutralizing Carg Island chokes their funding, exposes how weak
the regime actually is the Iranian people, and could even theoretically,
although I'm not banking on this, accelerate internal collapse and
regime change without a full scale invasion of the mainland.
(12:40):
Now that would be a best case scenario carg Island.
If that actually brought about a regime change, I don't
think that is going to happen.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
Here's the challenge, of course. Taking it is not simple.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
This would be a high stakes joint military operation requiring
extreme and overwhelming US precision and superiority. The island is small,
it's about twenty square kilometers, but it is heavily fortified.
So Iran has air defenses, radars, missile sites, drones, mines,
and ground forces there, plus easy reinforcement from the mainland
(13:14):
via missiles and drone swarms. So US planners would have
to first achieve total air and sea superiority in and
around Carg Island. They'd have to suppress enemy air defenses
with stealth strikes, Tomahawks, and electronic warfare from carrier groups
in the Gulf. Navy and Air Force assets would clear
the paths. We're talking f thirty fives B twos if needed,
(13:34):
destroyers for missile barrages.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Then comes the insertion.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
I mean the troops likely a mix of marine expeditionary units,
perhaps for amphibious assault, army rangers or Tier one units
even like zeal Team six Delta, depending on what targets
they're going for. This would be an airborne helly born assault,
(13:58):
probably at night. You'd have apatche gunships in the mix,
Blackhawks and nooks.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
You'd have to have rapid.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
Seizure of key terminals, storage tanks, loading facilities, and power
infrastructure while minimizing long term damage so that you can
actually control and operate this. You're not just trying to
nuke it right, so to speak. You're not just trying
to blow the whole island up. And that means also
sustained air defense. Once you take it, you got to
protect it, so you'd have Patriot missiles, the ageous cruiser.
(14:24):
From the naval side, you'd have to have logistics for troops,
counter drone and missile operations, and engineering to secure repair facilities.
And you might take some pretty serious casualties here. Iran
can't stop us from taking the island, but they might
be able to extract a real plight, real price in blood.
(14:46):
So if we are able to take or disabled Carggough
for Iran, it's economic armour geddon. Oil revenue, which is
their main hard currency source, completely plummets. The regime wouldn't
be able to pay salaries, or fund terror networks, or
sustain the military. You probably have hyperinflation kick in and
possible fractures in the IRGC and the clerical elite. You
(15:06):
have unrest in the streets. Proxies lose funding, which means
Hezbolahuthi's all the rest of them are weakened. Forces Iran
to the table on US terms, basically having the knee
bent for them, And there would be some disruptions of
course in Gulf shipping and oil, but the US naval
presence could stabilize it over time. So that's the other
(15:30):
option here, And I got to tell you, I think
it's got to be one or the other because this
game of wait and see, a little bit of pressure,
a little bit of strikes. We're almost at a deal.
We either have a deal. We got to hit them
a lot harder. I think Trump recognizes that telling us
the deal is done when it's not done, is not
going to get it done. So that's how I see
(15:50):
this playing out. We'll have more updates for you as
it goes. Shield Time
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