April 10, 2026 • 36 mins
Hour 1 of the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show kicks off the Friday broadcast with a deep dive into the evolving U.S.–Iran standoff, high-stakes diplomacy, and the global energy markets, framed by a distinctly American domestic lens. Clay and Buck open by noting spring cultural markers like the Masters Golf Tournament, then quickly pivot to the dominant geopolitical story: Vice President JD Vance leading critical Iran negotiations in Pakistan. Listeners hear Vance’s comments before departure, emphasizing that the Trump administration is open to good-faith talks but will not tolerate Iran stalling or gaming the process. The hosts assess early market reactions, noting relatively muted movement in stocks and oil, and debate whether the negotiations represent a real turning point or simply another phase of Iran’s long-running delay strategy.
A central theme of Hour 1 is skepticism about Iran’s intentions and intense focus on the Strait of Hormuz. Buck argues forcefully that Iran is employing classic “run out the clock” tactics, allowing limited tanker traffic—estimated around 10% of normal levels—while claiming cooperation. He contends this partial opening largely benefits Iran-friendly nations like China and Russia and does not meet the strategic objective of restoring free navigation for global trade. Clay largely agrees on the strategic importance of fully reopening the strait but introduces a provocative economic argument: America’s status as a net energy exporter has fundamentally changed the political calculus around oil price spikes. Unlike the 1990s, when high oil prices crushed the U.S. economy, today many American producers, investors, and energy states materially benefit when oil trades near $100 a barrel.
From there, Hour 1 becomes a detailed exploration of oil and gas economics, energy independence, and how geopolitics intersects with domestic politics. Clay highlights data showing California imports a significant share of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz while simultaneously restricting domestic production, exporting wealth overseas despite having vast in-state resources. This sparks extended discussion—and listener calls—from oil and gas professionals across Texas, North Dakota, and beyond. Callers explain production costs, profit margins, and why many producers view $65–$75 per barrel as the “sweet spot” that balances profitability without crushing consumers, while acknowledging that short-term spikes disproportionately benefit explorers and mineral-rights holders. The segment underscores how higher energy prices now keep more dollars inside the U.S. economy, even as they raise costs for everyday drivers.
The hour also touches on broader political implications. Buck questions whether voters’ frustration with high gasoline prices outweighs the quieter economic gains flowing to energy-producing regions, while Clay argues that energy independence gives America more negotiating leverage with Iran than it had in previous decades. Senate Democrats’ reactions are also discussed, with praise for Senator John Fetterman’s blunt call to support the U.S. military and Israel against Iran, positioning the conflict as a choice between civilization and terror regimes rather than partisan politics.
Hour 1 concludes with spirited back-and-forth between the hosts, listener pushback, and clarification of Clay’s argument that high oil prices are not “good for America” broadly, but undeniably beneficial for the U.S. energy sector—an uncomfortable reality many in mainstream media ignore. The segment encapsulates the show’s core themes: skepticism of adversaries, distrust of simplistic narratives, and an insistence on analyzing global crises through real-world economics, American interests, and on-the-ground expertise.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in Friday edition Clay Travis buck Sexton Show. We
appreciate all of you who are hanging out with us.
Let's have some fun and get you guys informed on
a variety of different stories as we head into what
should be a great weekend. Master's Action underway. For those
of you who are golfers, it is an official sign
(00:23):
for many parts of the country that spring has sprung.
We will give you the absolute latest on the US
Iran situation. Artemis two scheduled for a splashdown landing off
the coast of San Diego. Our buddy Ryan Gerdsky gonna
join us at one to talk about a bunch of
different topics, including this data coming out that nobody's having
(00:47):
babies anymore, which is frankly kind of alarming much of
Western civilization. The population is collapsing. Nobody really to a
large extent, is talking about it. The egxsit essential threat
to America and the world. It likely is turning out
is not going to be climate change or global warming.
(01:08):
It's gonna be a bunch of people just deciding not
to have babies in the population collapsing as a result.
We will talk about all that and more but we
begin with the biggest news, which is high stakes negotiations
that are poised to take place in Pakistan over the weekend,
and Vice President Jade Vance is leading that charge, and
(01:31):
he took off earlier today. I think it was actually
maybe even last night for the Iran negotiations in Pakistan,
And this is what he said right before he got
on the plane to begin that trip cut for We're
looking forward to negotiation.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
I think it's going to be positive. We'll, of foresee,
as the President of the United States said, if the
Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we're certainly
willing to extend the open hand. If they're going to
try to play us, then they're gonna find the negotiating
team is not that receptive. So we're trying to have
a positive negotiation. The presidents gave us some pretty clear
guidelines and we're gonna see all right.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
So update on the markets.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
The dow down a small amount s and P five
hundred when I last checked up, A small amount, not
a lot of movement. Oil and gas has stabilized, dropped
substantially during the course of this week and has since
kind of danced around that one hundred dollars, Mark Buck,
Are you optimistic at all for these negotiations that are
(02:34):
gonna take place in Pakistan?
Speaker 3 (02:36):
What do you expect?
Speaker 1 (02:38):
If anything, let's predict if we were coming back on Monday,
what does our conversation look like with these negotiations in
theory beginning on Saturday.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
I think our.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Answer already, but I'm just gonna I'm just gonna allow
you to Debbie Downer us all as we begin the
program here on a beautiful spring Friday.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
I cannot tell a lie. As you all know, there's
not going to be a deal. There's going to be
a deal. To continue figuring out what the deal looks like.
And this is Iranian Bob and Weave. This is float
(03:18):
like a butterfly, sting like a bee, Middle East style.
This is exactly what they have been doing all along.
And I'm gonna say this. I am, I guess obviously
pessimistic about the chance of us being negotiated to a conclusion,
but I am hopeful. And this is one of these
ones where I would love it. It will I will
(03:40):
be smiling ear to ear on this show and taking
the proverbial paddle and saying thank you, sir, may I
have another If I'm wrong on this one, some of
you will catch the reference to animal house. It is
absolutely the case that the Iranians, I think I should say,
(04:02):
in my view, is absolutely the case that the Iranians
view this as now a delay game and they're using
the price of oil and our political considerations as their
leverage clay. The straight of horn Moves is not open.
That was the big thing here. It's a little open.
(04:22):
It's a little open. It's not open. I think they're
saying ten percent of the expected traffic through hor Moves
is going through. And guess who's getting waved on through Russia.
China friendlies to Iran and they may be paying crypto,
they may be paying tolls we don't even know about
(04:43):
to Just to be clear about this, I don't think
that's happening. I think Russia and China would be like,
you really don't want to mess with us too. But
who knows, right? Who knows? So I am hopeful that
this is jd Vance and Jared Kushner shining moment.
Speaker 5 (04:58):
Now.
Speaker 4 (04:58):
What may happen is the deadline will pass in two weeks,
we start bombing them again for a few days we
have press conferences from the Pentagon saying look at how
much we can kick their ass, and then we go, okay,
another ceasefire. You guys want to talk, and the Iran
and is like, oh fine, fine, we're willing to talk,
(05:19):
and so on and so forth, and again, like I said,
I am hopeful I am wrong on this one, but
I do not see Clay. If the strait is not
open right now, what exactly have we gotten in the ceasefire?
And the strait is not open right now and no
one seems to want to talk about that, I will
think this is all that was Debbie Downer to the max.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
Wasn't that we have to go on a Friday?
Speaker 1 (05:41):
On the back look, I think the number one thing
is the Strait of Horror moves being officially open and
Iran eliminating its desire potentially to uh to blow up
freighters filled with oil. Here's something I don't hear anybody
talking about. And this is not Debbie Downer, this is
DEBI realistic. There's a lot of big time Trump donors
(06:05):
that are thrilled with what the price of oil and
gas is right now. So think about this if you
are and there are a bunch of Texans listening to
us right now. If you are in Texas, you are
thrilled with what the price of oil and gas is
right now. Fifty dollars a barrel. It's hard to make money.
(06:27):
Sixty dollars a barrel, there's tiny little profit margin. One
hundred dollars barrel of gas. There are people that are
going to be having champagne toasts going on while they
kick back and watch the Masters all over Texas this weekend,
as long as these prices remain higher. The reason why
I bring it up is there is a little bit
of a disconnect between what the average consumer thinks the
(06:50):
price of oil and gas should be and what oil
and gas producers think the price of oil and gas
can be. And the calculus on this is very different
than it was in the nineteen nineties when we had
to import all of our oil and gas into this
country in order to be able to Okay, to take
care of everything. Now we're net exporters and so so
(07:13):
it's a different kind So I'm just.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
Wait, this is do you do you think Trump doesn't
want the straight You're saying there are a lot of
Trump donors who want the gas price high, so they
like this congestion. Are you saying Trump doesn't want the
straight open? I'm a little confused.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Now, well, I'm saying I'm not sure that the straight
being one hundred percent open is a universal goal of
every part.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
Of the sure. But what's Trump's goal.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
Trump's goal, I think is to get oil and gas
down to there's a bit of dispute over this for
a while. He thinks the ideal price is fifty dollars
a barrel. The Texas guys, maybe some of you can
call in, And.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
I was gonna say, can we get somebody to put
your stetson down for a second here, pick up your
phone Texans.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Who work in oil and gas and let us know
what's going on.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Yeah, actually I would love that. You don't have to
give us your official designation. But if you are listening
to us right now and you are involved in American
oil and gas, here's another point, buck.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
Yeah, you don't have to call in and say, my
name is John Smith. I'm a senior VP at XON.
I work in this office. You can be like, this
is John and I know what I'm talking about.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
Bought it and I just bought a Picasso because in
the last month, I made an extra one hundred million
dollars because the barrel of gas doubled. But I do
think this that here's another stat book that that I
was reading. I've been doing a bunch of research on
oil and gas because I'm fascinated by this entire industry.
You know that California, which is trying to say, hey,
we're all into clean oil and gas and we're gonna
(08:39):
be the green news. You know that twenty nine percent
of California's gas is imported, according to the Wall Street Journal,
and comes through the Strait of Horn Moves, infinitely more
than any other state in the United States.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Did you notice?
Speaker 1 (08:56):
I had no idea it's a tiny percentage of oil
and gas that ultimately ends up in the United States
that transits through the Strait of Horror moves California. I
believe I'm gonna pull up that stat and we'll share
that article I was reading. California imports about twenty nine
percent of its overall oil and gas from the Straight
(09:16):
of Horn Moves. So right now, if you are listening
to us in California, your entire basis for the Green
New Deal and everything else. In addition to the fact
that you have to pay way more to fill up
your cars and your trucks, which is infuriating, I would imagine,
But Buck, they are actually bringing in the California dollars,
(09:40):
are actually going to these Middle Eastern countries as opposed
to staying here at home because California has tons of
oil casts that they're not.
Speaker 4 (09:50):
Decided talking to me about the oil markets and everything,
and it's very interesting, and you know, you really also
could run a stock market like you're very into this stuff.
Well you could be sitting there with honestly think you're
probably better than Kramer. No offense fly actually no offense
to Kramer. You could be doing this on everything. If
I'm just right about a little bit, I could probably
do better. But on this issue of where we are
(10:10):
with ending the Iran war, not how people in Texas
may feel about it if they happen to have a
lot of shares of Exxon or Texico or whatever. I
know there's been all these mergers I can't remember. Does
Trump feel good about where things are right now? Do
you think that the administration feels like this is where
things are supposed to be? I checked this morning. Ten
percent there are thousands of ships that are still bottled up.
(10:31):
Ten percent of the straight traffic is happening, and Iran
is claiming now the right for national security purposes to
inspect and deter any ships coming into the strait that
it wants.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
No, he wants the strait to be clear and open,
and I do think that the overall precedent being set
of open bodies of water, which is a global trade
perspective position, should not be able to enact holes.
Speaker 6 (10:59):
Right.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
That's different than the Panama Canal or something that is
a man made shipping creation where you certainly are extracting tolls.
That's the basis for it, just like a toll road
versus an interstate that's paid for. The idea is that
this has to be going through. What I am saying
is I do think the politics of this is actually
(11:20):
a bit more complicated, and maybe the pressure is different
versus an individual filling up their oil and gas and
the Texas oil men out there. We got loaded lines
from the Texas oil men who are saying this is
actually incredibly good, and it's a different calculus when much
of the money is still coming into this country, when
(11:42):
we benefit in some ways from a corporate perspective on
higher oil and gas prices, and they want to drill
more when prices go up. Now, this is just big picture.
It's hard to get more oil and gas drilling done
when there's fifty dollars a barrel, because it's hard to
make money. At one hundred dollars a barrel, they make
(12:02):
way more money. I would bet that the capacity that
could be dialed up in the United States is substantial
at those dollar figures. I just don't hear anybody talking
about the fact that the calculus has changed when it
comes to America as a net exporting country. Of this
is a tremendous success story compared to when we had
(12:23):
to bring everything else in. A lot of those dollars
on oil and gas now stay in America and actually
can provide fuel. No pun intended in a positive direction
for the economy. Now, the downside is obviously individual consumers
have to pay more. But if you look at it
on an inflation adjusted basis, oil and gas is one
of the greatest buys that exists anywhere in the world.
(12:46):
We pay far less now on an inflation adjusted basis.
You know, oil and gas, I believe is cheaper than
bottled water again. I find all this, and I mean this,
I'm not I would never be still hilliest when you're
doing your financial I find all this deeply interest. We
stop bombing them so they would open the Straight and
the Strait's not open.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
This is the fundamental problem. I agree.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
In general, what I'm saying is I'm not sure that
the political pressure is as intense on this issue as
maybe the general population. Then the Strait doesn't need to
be open. Well, I think it needs to be open eventually.
But if it ends up eventually opening in a month,
I think that there's a lot of oil and gas
people in Texas that would say, hey, that's fine, So
(13:30):
the pressure valve isn't as tight as one's my argument,
I got you, okay, interesting and I may be wrong,
but I want to hear from the Texas guys in gallop.
Speaker 4 (13:38):
And one of the chances one of them is actually
named text By the way, extra points if you call
and you're like, I've been an oil man for forty years,
my name's Texts.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
I think the oil and gas guys are going to say, Clay,
you're the only person who's actually made this argument in
anywhere in media, because It is a different calculus than
it was in the nineties, and I think not surprised
a lot of media have not caught up with what
oil and gas independence and US being a net exporter
actually means. When oil and gas prices go up. It
(14:06):
used to be we got entirely gouged and we were
the victims. Now we are actually having a great deal
of success. China arguably becomes a victim, the europe becomes
a victim the countries that are not energy independent. This
is actually what Trump has been arguing for so long.
We had to create it. So just in general and
(14:26):
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totally wrong on this or if you're saying allelujah. Somebody's
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Speaker 7 (15:38):
Views, politics, sports, and a little fun thrown into Clay
and Buck.
Speaker 3 (15:44):
It's a whole vibe. Welcome back into Clay in Buck.
Speaker 4 (15:47):
I gotta say we keep coming back to this whenever
we have Senator Fetterman of Pennsylvania talking about issues involving
Israel and the Middle East. He's consistently reasonable insane on
this issue, and here he is once again. This is
(16:07):
cut nine. Democrat Senator Fetterman of Pennsylvania. I want to
let you hear what he has to say.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
Play it.
Speaker 8 (16:14):
Why can't we just, you know, root for our military.
Why can't we just say I don't have to agree
everything the President has done, nder the kind of things
that he says, but now we're going to we should
be on the side of America, and we should be
on the side of civilization and the free wororld.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
And I'm on that side.
Speaker 8 (16:32):
And I don't know why I'm the only Democrat that
says those kinds that thing at this point, and I
think more Democrats should listen to me and say it'd
be on the right side of history and holding Iran accountable.
And if you have to pick a side, pick our side,
pick civilization, pick Israel.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
That's that's that's really the paradigm as we see it,
and have since October seventh and before then, but certainly
since then. If you're picking a side on this one,
pick the side of civilization and Israel is on the
side of civilization. That does not mean it's perfect. America
is not perfect, and we will criticize both when necessary.
But if it's between that and the Mullas that in
Hamas that in Hezbolah Clay. I think a lot of
(17:13):
the people, including on the right, who have been getting
really weird on this issue, they just have no idea
how vicious and sadistic and violent some of these Islamo
fascists really are.
Speaker 6 (17:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
Look, I think what Fetterman is saying, and he's a
voice of sanity here is you can't argue that Iran
is an existential threat for decades, as Democrats have, and
they're all on the record saying it, and then be
upset when Trump does something to try and take away
that existential threat. By the way, loaded lines on oil, guys,
(17:47):
So put on your big hats and get ready for
some oil and gas analysis when we come back. I'll
take some of these calls. We better hear some heavy
Texas accents. That's all I'm saying.
Speaker 3 (17:57):
All right.
Speaker 4 (17:58):
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(18:18):
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Speaker 1 (18:59):
All right, welcome back, and you never know what you're
gonna get. Oil, Big oil has loaded up the lines.
The state. I believe that we have the biggest listenership
in Buck is Texas, and we love all of our Texans.
And obviously the oil and gas industry is not just
confided to Texas. But I've gotten to know a lot
of oil and gas guys and Initially, Buck, where this
(19:19):
came from was actually college football because Texas A and
M is the top producing oil and gas school anywhere in.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
The country basically.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
And I remember when they redid Kyle Field back in
the day, Buck, all the big Texas oil guys who
were donating, they said, there's three things that got this
stadium Redone and let me tell you, if you want
to see the fanciest suites that exist anywhere in a
football stadium in America, the nicest suites I've ever seen
is in Texas A and M. They redid that football field.
(19:51):
Texas guys all said, the oil guys who were donating
the big money, hundreds of millions of dollars to get
this thing done. They said, there's three things that happened.
Johnny Manziel, the SEC and seventy dollars barrel of oil.
This was back in like twenty ten, twenty eleven, and boy,
they got that thing built.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
In a hurry, and it is a temple. It's incredible. Okay.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
So the point I was making off the top is
that there may not be as much political pressure on
the on the Strait of Hormuz over the price of
oil and gas because America. Big companies now benefit immensely
since we are in exporting net exporting country now because
of the massive amounts of oil and gas we produced.
(20:32):
And so when oil and gas is ninety five dollars
ninety seven dollars a barrel like it is right now,
there's a lot of people in this country that are
very happy with that, which is different than in the
nineties when we were having to bring in all the
oil and gas. And I'm curious from people out there.
We got loaded lines gene is up in North Dakota.
You say, you produce a lot of oil up in
(20:54):
North Dakota. What is the reaction when one hundred dollars
barrel of oil is happening so far as you see.
Speaker 9 (20:59):
It, Well, we pump about one point two million barrels
a day of oil out of the ground up here.
And if you were smart enough to hang on to
your mineral rights and didn't sell them to Herald Ham,
then you are making let's say they pump two thousand
barrels a day off your land. That two thousand times
(21:21):
one hundred is a pretty good payday for some old
guy sitting on a farm up here in North Dakota.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
What do you need to Sorry to cut you off,
but what is your cost? Like, what does oil and
gas need to be in North Dakota when you're in
a general sense, because I know it can vary depending
on how depth, and there's lots of complicating factors, but
in general, what do you need to have oil and
gas be to make a decent profit.
Speaker 9 (21:48):
I've always heard that between somewhere between seventy probably sixty
seven and seventy five dollars a barrel. Now, a lot
of companies are drillers and a lot of company are refiners.
They only refine, they don't go looking for oil. Some
do both. So it really depends on you know where
(22:09):
you're at. If you're just a refiner, you want fifty
dollars a barrel oil. If you're an explorer you want
one hundred dollars a barrel oil.
Speaker 5 (22:16):
Yeah, so you.
Speaker 9 (22:17):
Know, but up here a person needs if you take
the cost of oil divided by three three point six
y nine, that should give you what the price of
gasoline should be. And if you do that right now
at one hundred dollars, you'll come up with about three
dollars just short of three dollars and then you add
(22:38):
on and we're paying right now, we're paying three dollars
and forty nine cents a gallon for gasoline.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
Yeah, well, thank you for the call. We got a
lot of people who want to weigh in. This is
a little bit of an education for many of us
because I'm fascinated by the business here. Let's see, Eric,
you're in Midland, Texas. Midland is a huge oil producing area.
What's the reaction right now out to the price of
oil and gas and what do you think, in an
(23:03):
ideal world it should be.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
I'm just kind of curious from a business perspective.
Speaker 5 (23:09):
Hey, guys, it's great to be with y'all. Yeah, I
think it should be between sixty five and seventy dollars
a barrel. That'll have us to make plenty of money.
We are definitely oil country here in Middleland and Odessa,
and you know, we all get to stay busy. Everybody's
making good money and the rest of the country doesn't
(23:31):
have to suffer with the high gas prices and even ourselves.
I filled my truck up earlier today. I drive a
pefal truck one hundred and seventy five dollars to fill
my truck up so at Sting's on all ends. We
don't want to see a hundred, one hundred and thirty
dollars barrel. Well like we saw, you know, back in
Obama days. It just gets crazy.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
But so if you could wave a magic wand oil
and gas companies make money, but it doesn't become a
tax on the larger economics because there's all oil and
gases embedded in the cost of everything. Your number would
be seventy ish dollars a barrel would be a good
dollar figure.
Speaker 5 (24:11):
That's correct.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Thank you for the call. These are interesting call. Robert
and Corpus Christy. Robert, are you in oil and gas?
What's your background?
Speaker 6 (24:21):
Well, I'm an attorney. I talk to you guys, but
I'm sitting here right now watching my pump jack producing oil.
You know, about a couple hundred barrels a day, and
you know it's good to see. I hate it for
the country that we're taking this Hickey, But but Clay,
you hit it on the head. You're playing, finally playing
(24:41):
chess when everybody in the press is playing checkers. That
straight up horror movies is open. They don't have a
navy to patrol it. It's supposedly at the bottom of
the Persian Gulf, So the decisions are being made to
not send tankers through, not because they're really that scared.
There's really no blockade or anything that would stop there
from just sailing right through. What's stopping them is keeping
(25:03):
the price of oil high. And you hit the nail
on the head with that one.
Speaker 1 (25:07):
I think there, thank you for the call. I think
there's some fear that is certainly taking place here. But
my argument would be the longer it takes for the
oil and gas.
Speaker 4 (25:18):
Would would you would you want to be an oil
like a US or a you know, a Western oil
rig captain on one of these one of these ships
going through. Just to be clear, I would not take
that job right now. I would not take that lot
of money. But I wouldn't take that I wouldn't take
that job for like Sean Han any money like I
wouldn't take that job for big boy money.
Speaker 5 (25:40):
No.
Speaker 3 (25:41):
Wait, you know what, I wouldn't mind being in the
job of right now though.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Having a few thousand acres on the Permian basin right now,
when it's one hundred dollars one hundred dollars a barrel
Lindy in Houston is talking about that, Lindy, you're down in.
I would say Houston is probably a Uston Dallas, the
two biggest oil markets in the entire United States for
sure in terms of the money rolling in. What are
(26:07):
you hearing around Houston about one hundred dollars barrel of oil?
Speaker 10 (26:11):
Well, good morning.
Speaker 6 (26:14):
I guess that.
Speaker 10 (26:15):
I worked in the oil patch for about forty two years,
mainly in the international side. And the driver on what
the oil companies are looking for is the delta between
what they sell the oil for and how much they
have to pay for it to get it out of
the ground.
Speaker 3 (26:32):
Oh yeah, And.
Speaker 10 (26:35):
You know, when we were fifty dollars oil, the oil
companies probably had to spend thirty five or forty dollars
a barrel to drill the wells and get them fracked
and get that oil produced. So they didn't make a
heck of a lot of money. So when we take
it up to one hundred bucks a barrel, you know,
(26:56):
on the stuff that they've already drilled, they're making good
money on it. They don't have a real problem with
what's going on. Yeah, But now the negative is if
oil prices stay high, their costs are going to go up.
All the service companies spracking, drilling, all water haulage, all
the things that go with that's a good point cost
(27:18):
of production that's gonna go up if it stays high and.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
So so, do you agree that the ideal price is
about seventy dollars for your average oil and gas producer?
Speaker 10 (27:30):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (27:32):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Second question, you've been doing this forty you've been doing
this forty two years. How much different is it now
than the first Persian golf you know, the golf war,
when we weren't energy and dependent. How much more of
a you know, the economics of oil and gas pricing
increases changes based on the amount we're producing. Right, this
(27:54):
is one of the big impacts of the Trump administration
one point zero and just the growth in general in
what were able to produce. You've got to have seen
a tremendous difference in the impact over your forty two
year career.
Speaker 10 (28:08):
Yes, I have. But I mean you had the same
phenomenon back in the early nineties with with you know,
the invasion of Kuwait. I mean, the thrice of oil
went up, and unless you were messing around in that
part of the world, and you were in the old
business in West Texas, you were probably okay with that
price run up. And you know the same thing in
(28:30):
the invasion of Iraq. I mean, the Prasia oil goes up,
and if you're not in business there, it does doesn't
do a whole lot. When you get a big spike
in the short run, that just raises your revenue, doesn't
raise your cost spaces.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
So this is all very I mean again, Clay, this
is all very truly interesting about the oil and gas industry.
But well, how many people in this country are benefiting
from the high prices versus how many voters do not
like the high prices. And I think that that is
we're talking about the politics of this as well as
(29:07):
the economics of this. And also that was a very
important point that was made by one of the callers.
This is amazing too. We always say this, and we
mean this. This isn't We're not like sucking up or anything.
The amount of knowledge that we can draw upon from
all of you, all across the country. There's millions of
you who are listening, and what when you call in,
and we have obviously fantastic call screener to make sure
we're putting people on the air who really know what
(29:29):
they know what they're going to say, and know their stuff.
Speaker 3 (29:32):
It's incredible. So you are you're.
Speaker 4 (29:34):
Like our original AI and we can put out a
question and get an AI style answer here on the
old school phone lines. In terms of the love of expertise,
I think that's really interesting. But Clay, there's the producers, right,
the refiners, the people searching for it, the people refining it,
the people transporting it, the people.
Speaker 3 (29:50):
That are and disrupt.
Speaker 4 (29:52):
I mean, all of the big oil CEOs are all
saying we want business as usual in the Strait We
do not want any of this happen now. Maybe they
feel like they have to say that that's possible. You
really think so, because I think that they just want Look,
they're in a business where they get to make money
all the time. The world needs oil. They're providing what
we need. Right, It's like we got an addiction and
(30:14):
the only answer is more oil. I feel like they
would just like things to even out here and get
back to normal.
Speaker 1 (30:23):
I think the dollar figure is interesting that seventy dollars
they think is good. Fifty dollars is where Trump wanted it.
They wanted it at seventy. There's a delta there obviously
of difference. I think they're very very aware that people
blame them every time prices go up. This is why
I always feel bad for the average gas station owner,
as we've talked about, because I don't think a lot
(30:44):
of people even really understand that they are not gouging you.
The only way they make money is when you go
inside this average gas station. They make a couple of
pennies a gallon on oil and gas. They need you
to go buy a Snap. They still make Snapple. They
need you to go buy us Apple in the uh
nurse Snapple back in the day. I don't even know
if it's still like Rush was a big Snapple guy.
(31:05):
Snapple was great, right, guys.
Speaker 4 (31:07):
Wasn't Rush really into Snapple or am I am? I
imagining that, Oh yeah, he was a big fan of Snapple.
That that company really exists very much anymore. But they
need you to go into the convenience store and grab
a slim gym or some potato chips, and that's the
way they make money. The profit margin, by and large
comes from purchases in convenience store. Again, taking the thirty
(31:28):
thousand foot view here, though Clay are the Are they
all all in their totality? Does does Trump? Does the administration?
Do the oil company? Do they want the straight to
have one hundred percent of the traffic or do they?
Actually you really think? I mean this is this is
getting a little quasi conspiratorial. You think oil I think
(31:49):
that they a lot of them are not furious. I
don't know that there are. I think the political pressure
is not all raining down on it should be open.
I think for the globe economy we need it open.
I'm just saying that the energy and dependence of the
United States has changed some of the calculus associated with
(32:09):
when the price of oil and gas goes up. We
used to be net spenders as a country I'm talking
about now we're net beneficiaries. And so why was Trump
threatening to destroy like hospitals and orphanages a few days
ago in Iran if they don't open the strait?
Speaker 3 (32:25):
What was that all about?
Speaker 1 (32:26):
I think the long range we can't have a situation
where Iran controls the Straight of Horror moves for years
and years into the future. We cannot have that. But
I think the short term political calculus, like if you
told me this will be resolved in three months. I
don't think the idea that it is a tremendous, must
(32:49):
fixed situation imminently. I think there's actually a little bit
more negotiating leverage than because of the current energy and
dependence than there would have been in nineteen or nineteen
ninety one.
Speaker 4 (33:01):
You get into the summer and there's a big, nasty,
mean spike in oil prices.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
I'm going to remind you of all this.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
Wow and look, there is a disconnect to your point.
I think it's an important one between sometimes what oil
and gas companies want and what the average consumer wants.
And by the way, I'm the average consumer. I filled
up my car this morning. It cost me a lot more.
I got an suv. I got to fit all the
kids in.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
The back of it. It cost me.
Speaker 4 (33:24):
Its like oil prices, smoil prices. I drive at Tesla.
I also have a Tesla. I also have a Tesla.
By the way, I plug it into the wall like
a cell phone. It costs me absolutely nothing on electricity.
By and large, car drives itself.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
It's kind of I was on a call and one
of our guys said, are you is that the car
driving itself? In the background I'm like, yeah, I just
get in the car now, just have a bunch of calls.
Don't have to worry about anything. So I got a
tesla in an suv. I'm covering both ends of the spectrum. Look,
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Speaker 3 (35:04):
Code.
Speaker 7 (35:05):
Level up your brain and balance out your day with
the right amount of information and entertainment. Clay Travis and
Buck Sexton on the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 11 (35:16):
Or wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 4 (35:18):
Welcome back into Clay and Buck where we get to
hear Clay's geo political analysis, which is something along the
lines of so.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
We take the oil, we go in, or maybe we
don't take the oil. You'd know that better than anyone.
Speaker 4 (35:30):
Do we want the oil, we want the prices high,
we don't want It's pretty amazing stuff that we're fighting
out here, Clay, that the world is working in four
D chess with oil rigs backed up, backed up, hundreds
of them now, and the oil barons are sitting there
like fat cats twirling their whiskers.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (35:51):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
Makes a lot of money interesting, a lot of money
in the Middle East over the oil not being able
to get out either.
Speaker 3 (35:57):
And Jim in Minnesota, he's fired up.
Speaker 1 (35:59):
He's saying, I'm not Jim fire away.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
Jeremy God, yeah yeah.
Speaker 11 (36:09):
And you hear me earlier in the week, I had
to listen to you stand and Trump's tweet about annihilating
the civilization of Iran. We didn't take it the right way.
What do you really meant?
Speaker 10 (36:21):
Was X Y and Z.
Speaker 11 (36:22):
Now I've got to listen to you talk about. Oh,
oil prices and the tread of harm mood being bottled
up is good for us.
Speaker 1 (36:30):
No, I didn't say thank you, m I didn't say
it was good for US. I said it's good for
oil people. And now that the United States is a
next is a net exporter of oil and gas one
hundred dollars a barrel oil and gas is great if
you're in the oil and gas industry. It's different when
you're filling up your cars. But that's the reality. I
(36:50):
haven't heard anybody talking about it. They're they're living it
up right now in Texas. They're popping bottles
Welcome in Friday edition Clay Travis buck Sexton Show. We
appreciate all of you who are hanging out with us.
Let's have some fun and get you guys informed on
a variety of different stories as we head into what
should be a great weekend. Master's Action underway. For those
of you who are golfers, it is an official sign
(00:23):
for many parts of the country that spring has sprung.
We will give you the absolute latest on the US
Iran situation. Artemis two scheduled for a splashdown landing off
the coast of San Diego. Our buddy Ryan Gerdsky gonna
join us at one to talk about a bunch of
different topics, including this data coming out that nobody's having
(00:47):
babies anymore, which is frankly kind of alarming much of
Western civilization. The population is collapsing. Nobody really to a
large extent, is talking about it. The egxsit essential threat
to America and the world. It likely is turning out
is not going to be climate change or global warming.
(01:08):
It's gonna be a bunch of people just deciding not
to have babies in the population collapsing as a result.
We will talk about all that and more but we
begin with the biggest news, which is high stakes negotiations
that are poised to take place in Pakistan over the weekend,
and Vice President Jade Vance is leading that charge, and
(01:31):
he took off earlier today. I think it was actually
maybe even last night for the Iran negotiations in Pakistan,
And this is what he said right before he got
on the plane to begin that trip cut for We're
looking forward to negotiation.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
I think it's going to be positive. We'll, of foresee,
as the President of the United States said, if the
Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we're certainly
willing to extend the open hand. If they're going to
try to play us, then they're gonna find the negotiating
team is not that receptive. So we're trying to have
a positive negotiation. The presidents gave us some pretty clear
guidelines and we're gonna see all right.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
So update on the markets.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
The dow down a small amount s and P five
hundred when I last checked up, A small amount, not
a lot of movement. Oil and gas has stabilized, dropped
substantially during the course of this week and has since
kind of danced around that one hundred dollars, Mark Buck,
Are you optimistic at all for these negotiations that are
(02:34):
gonna take place in Pakistan?
Speaker 3 (02:36):
What do you expect?
Speaker 1 (02:38):
If anything, let's predict if we were coming back on Monday,
what does our conversation look like with these negotiations in
theory beginning on Saturday.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
I think our.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Answer already, but I'm just gonna I'm just gonna allow
you to Debbie Downer us all as we begin the
program here on a beautiful spring Friday.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
I cannot tell a lie. As you all know, there's
not going to be a deal. There's going to be
a deal. To continue figuring out what the deal looks like.
And this is Iranian Bob and Weave. This is float
(03:18):
like a butterfly, sting like a bee, Middle East style.
This is exactly what they have been doing all along.
And I'm gonna say this. I am, I guess obviously
pessimistic about the chance of us being negotiated to a conclusion,
but I am hopeful. And this is one of these
ones where I would love it. It will I will
(03:40):
be smiling ear to ear on this show and taking
the proverbial paddle and saying thank you, sir, may I
have another If I'm wrong on this one, some of
you will catch the reference to animal house. It is
absolutely the case that the Iranians, I think I should say,
(04:02):
in my view, is absolutely the case that the Iranians
view this as now a delay game and they're using
the price of oil and our political considerations as their
leverage clay. The straight of horn Moves is not open.
That was the big thing here. It's a little open.
(04:22):
It's a little open. It's not open. I think they're
saying ten percent of the expected traffic through hor Moves
is going through. And guess who's getting waved on through Russia.
China friendlies to Iran and they may be paying crypto,
they may be paying tolls we don't even know about
(04:43):
to Just to be clear about this, I don't think
that's happening. I think Russia and China would be like,
you really don't want to mess with us too. But
who knows, right? Who knows? So I am hopeful that
this is jd Vance and Jared Kushner shining moment.
Speaker 5 (04:58):
Now.
Speaker 4 (04:58):
What may happen is the deadline will pass in two weeks,
we start bombing them again for a few days we
have press conferences from the Pentagon saying look at how
much we can kick their ass, and then we go, okay,
another ceasefire. You guys want to talk, and the Iran
and is like, oh fine, fine, we're willing to talk,
(05:19):
and so on and so forth, and again, like I said,
I am hopeful I am wrong on this one, but
I do not see Clay. If the strait is not
open right now, what exactly have we gotten in the ceasefire?
And the strait is not open right now and no
one seems to want to talk about that, I will
think this is all that was Debbie Downer to the max.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
Wasn't that we have to go on a Friday?
Speaker 1 (05:41):
On the back look, I think the number one thing
is the Strait of Horror moves being officially open and
Iran eliminating its desire potentially to uh to blow up
freighters filled with oil. Here's something I don't hear anybody
talking about. And this is not Debbie Downer, this is
DEBI realistic. There's a lot of big time Trump donors
(06:05):
that are thrilled with what the price of oil and
gas is right now. So think about this if you
are and there are a bunch of Texans listening to
us right now. If you are in Texas, you are
thrilled with what the price of oil and gas is
right now. Fifty dollars a barrel. It's hard to make money.
(06:27):
Sixty dollars a barrel, there's tiny little profit margin. One
hundred dollars barrel of gas. There are people that are
going to be having champagne toasts going on while they
kick back and watch the Masters all over Texas this weekend,
as long as these prices remain higher. The reason why
I bring it up is there is a little bit
of a disconnect between what the average consumer thinks the
(06:50):
price of oil and gas should be and what oil
and gas producers think the price of oil and gas
can be. And the calculus on this is very different
than it was in the nineteen nineties when we had
to import all of our oil and gas into this
country in order to be able to Okay, to take
care of everything. Now we're net exporters and so so
(07:13):
it's a different kind So I'm just.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
Wait, this is do you do you think Trump doesn't
want the straight You're saying there are a lot of
Trump donors who want the gas price high, so they
like this congestion. Are you saying Trump doesn't want the
straight open? I'm a little confused.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Now, well, I'm saying I'm not sure that the straight
being one hundred percent open is a universal goal of
every part.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
Of the sure. But what's Trump's goal.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
Trump's goal, I think is to get oil and gas
down to there's a bit of dispute over this for
a while. He thinks the ideal price is fifty dollars
a barrel. The Texas guys, maybe some of you can
call in, And.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
I was gonna say, can we get somebody to put
your stetson down for a second here, pick up your
phone Texans.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Who work in oil and gas and let us know
what's going on.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Yeah, actually I would love that. You don't have to
give us your official designation. But if you are listening
to us right now and you are involved in American
oil and gas, here's another point, buck.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
Yeah, you don't have to call in and say, my
name is John Smith. I'm a senior VP at XON.
I work in this office. You can be like, this
is John and I know what I'm talking about.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
Bought it and I just bought a Picasso because in
the last month, I made an extra one hundred million
dollars because the barrel of gas doubled. But I do
think this that here's another stat book that that I
was reading. I've been doing a bunch of research on
oil and gas because I'm fascinated by this entire industry.
You know that California, which is trying to say, hey,
we're all into clean oil and gas and we're gonna
(08:39):
be the green news. You know that twenty nine percent
of California's gas is imported, according to the Wall Street Journal,
and comes through the Strait of Horn Moves, infinitely more
than any other state in the United States.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Did you notice?
Speaker 1 (08:56):
I had no idea it's a tiny percentage of oil
and gas that ultimately ends up in the United States
that transits through the Strait of Horror moves California. I
believe I'm gonna pull up that stat and we'll share
that article I was reading. California imports about twenty nine
percent of its overall oil and gas from the Straight
(09:16):
of Horn Moves. So right now, if you are listening
to us in California, your entire basis for the Green
New Deal and everything else. In addition to the fact
that you have to pay way more to fill up
your cars and your trucks, which is infuriating, I would imagine,
But Buck, they are actually bringing in the California dollars,
(09:40):
are actually going to these Middle Eastern countries as opposed
to staying here at home because California has tons of
oil casts that they're not.
Speaker 4 (09:50):
Decided talking to me about the oil markets and everything,
and it's very interesting, and you know, you really also
could run a stock market like you're very into this stuff.
Well you could be sitting there with honestly think you're
probably better than Kramer. No offense fly actually no offense
to Kramer. You could be doing this on everything. If
I'm just right about a little bit, I could probably
do better. But on this issue of where we are
(10:10):
with ending the Iran war, not how people in Texas
may feel about it if they happen to have a
lot of shares of Exxon or Texico or whatever. I
know there's been all these mergers I can't remember. Does
Trump feel good about where things are right now? Do
you think that the administration feels like this is where
things are supposed to be? I checked this morning. Ten
percent there are thousands of ships that are still bottled up.
(10:31):
Ten percent of the straight traffic is happening, and Iran
is claiming now the right for national security purposes to
inspect and deter any ships coming into the strait that
it wants.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
No, he wants the strait to be clear and open,
and I do think that the overall precedent being set
of open bodies of water, which is a global trade
perspective position, should not be able to enact holes.
Speaker 6 (10:59):
Right.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
That's different than the Panama Canal or something that is
a man made shipping creation where you certainly are extracting tolls.
That's the basis for it, just like a toll road
versus an interstate that's paid for. The idea is that
this has to be going through. What I am saying
is I do think the politics of this is actually
(11:20):
a bit more complicated, and maybe the pressure is different
versus an individual filling up their oil and gas and
the Texas oil men out there. We got loaded lines
from the Texas oil men who are saying this is
actually incredibly good, and it's a different calculus when much
of the money is still coming into this country, when
(11:42):
we benefit in some ways from a corporate perspective on
higher oil and gas prices, and they want to drill
more when prices go up. Now, this is just big picture.
It's hard to get more oil and gas drilling done
when there's fifty dollars a barrel, because it's hard to
make money. At one hundred dollars a barrel, they make
(12:02):
way more money. I would bet that the capacity that
could be dialed up in the United States is substantial
at those dollar figures. I just don't hear anybody talking
about the fact that the calculus has changed when it
comes to America as a net exporting country. Of this
is a tremendous success story compared to when we had
(12:23):
to bring everything else in. A lot of those dollars
on oil and gas now stay in America and actually
can provide fuel. No pun intended in a positive direction
for the economy. Now, the downside is obviously individual consumers
have to pay more. But if you look at it
on an inflation adjusted basis, oil and gas is one
of the greatest buys that exists anywhere in the world.
(12:46):
We pay far less now on an inflation adjusted basis.
You know, oil and gas, I believe is cheaper than
bottled water again. I find all this, and I mean this,
I'm not I would never be still hilliest when you're
doing your financial I find all this deeply interest. We
stop bombing them so they would open the Straight and
the Strait's not open.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
This is the fundamental problem. I agree.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
In general, what I'm saying is I'm not sure that
the political pressure is as intense on this issue as
maybe the general population. Then the Strait doesn't need to
be open. Well, I think it needs to be open eventually.
But if it ends up eventually opening in a month,
I think that there's a lot of oil and gas
people in Texas that would say, hey, that's fine, So
(13:30):
the pressure valve isn't as tight as one's my argument,
I got you, okay, interesting and I may be wrong,
but I want to hear from the Texas guys in gallop.
Speaker 4 (13:38):
And one of the chances one of them is actually
named text By the way, extra points if you call
and you're like, I've been an oil man for forty years,
my name's Texts.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
I think the oil and gas guys are going to say, Clay,
you're the only person who's actually made this argument in
anywhere in media, because It is a different calculus than
it was in the nineties, and I think not surprised
a lot of media have not caught up with what
oil and gas independence and US being a net exporter
actually means. When oil and gas prices go up. It
(14:06):
used to be we got entirely gouged and we were
the victims. Now we are actually having a great deal
of success. China arguably becomes a victim, the europe becomes
a victim the countries that are not energy independent. This
is actually what Trump has been arguing for so long.
We had to create it. So just in general and
(14:26):
oil and gas guys, y'all can tell me if I'm
totally wrong on this or if you're saying allelujah. Somebody's
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(15:31):
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rapid radios dot com. Rapid Radios Communication redefine.
Speaker 7 (15:38):
Views, politics, sports, and a little fun thrown into Clay
and Buck.
Speaker 3 (15:44):
It's a whole vibe. Welcome back into Clay in Buck.
Speaker 4 (15:47):
I gotta say we keep coming back to this whenever
we have Senator Fetterman of Pennsylvania talking about issues involving
Israel and the Middle East. He's consistently reasonable insane on
this issue, and here he is once again. This is
(16:07):
cut nine. Democrat Senator Fetterman of Pennsylvania. I want to
let you hear what he has to say.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
Play it.
Speaker 8 (16:14):
Why can't we just, you know, root for our military.
Why can't we just say I don't have to agree
everything the President has done, nder the kind of things
that he says, but now we're going to we should
be on the side of America, and we should be
on the side of civilization and the free wororld.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
And I'm on that side.
Speaker 8 (16:32):
And I don't know why I'm the only Democrat that
says those kinds that thing at this point, and I
think more Democrats should listen to me and say it'd
be on the right side of history and holding Iran accountable.
And if you have to pick a side, pick our side,
pick civilization, pick Israel.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
That's that's that's really the paradigm as we see it,
and have since October seventh and before then, but certainly
since then. If you're picking a side on this one,
pick the side of civilization and Israel is on the
side of civilization. That does not mean it's perfect. America
is not perfect, and we will criticize both when necessary.
But if it's between that and the Mullas that in
Hamas that in Hezbolah Clay. I think a lot of
(17:13):
the people, including on the right, who have been getting
really weird on this issue, they just have no idea
how vicious and sadistic and violent some of these Islamo
fascists really are.
Speaker 6 (17:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
Look, I think what Fetterman is saying, and he's a
voice of sanity here is you can't argue that Iran
is an existential threat for decades, as Democrats have, and
they're all on the record saying it, and then be
upset when Trump does something to try and take away
that existential threat. By the way, loaded lines on oil, guys,
(17:47):
So put on your big hats and get ready for
some oil and gas analysis when we come back. I'll
take some of these calls. We better hear some heavy
Texas accents. That's all I'm saying.
Speaker 3 (17:57):
All right.
Speaker 4 (17:58):
We invest our money in retirement counts and mutual funds,
ETF stocks, a lot of things. But the real appreciation
this past year has come from none of those, but
from purchasing gold as part of your IRA and four
oh one K. The past year, the last twelve months,
the price of gold grew by over sixty five percent
in that one year alone, and if you want to
look at the long term, I think the picture for
(18:18):
gold is even more amazing. Seven hundred percent increasing gold
in its value over the last twenty years. Gold grows
in value when money printing, inflation and instability are problems,
and they certainly are. Birch Gold Group, by the way,
wants you to know about gold, and so they've just
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Speaker 3 (18:39):
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Speaker 1 (18:59):
All right, welcome back, and you never know what you're
gonna get. Oil, Big oil has loaded up the lines.
The state. I believe that we have the biggest listenership
in Buck is Texas, and we love all of our Texans.
And obviously the oil and gas industry is not just
confided to Texas. But I've gotten to know a lot
of oil and gas guys and Initially, Buck, where this
(19:19):
came from was actually college football because Texas A and
M is the top producing oil and gas school anywhere in.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
The country basically.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
And I remember when they redid Kyle Field back in
the day, Buck, all the big Texas oil guys who
were donating, they said, there's three things that got this
stadium Redone and let me tell you, if you want
to see the fanciest suites that exist anywhere in a
football stadium in America, the nicest suites I've ever seen
is in Texas A and M. They redid that football field.
(19:51):
Texas guys all said, the oil guys who were donating
the big money, hundreds of millions of dollars to get
this thing done. They said, there's three things that happened.
Johnny Manziel, the SEC and seventy dollars barrel of oil.
This was back in like twenty ten, twenty eleven, and boy,
they got that thing built.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
In a hurry, and it is a temple. It's incredible. Okay.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
So the point I was making off the top is
that there may not be as much political pressure on
the on the Strait of Hormuz over the price of
oil and gas because America. Big companies now benefit immensely
since we are in exporting net exporting country now because
of the massive amounts of oil and gas we produced.
(20:32):
And so when oil and gas is ninety five dollars
ninety seven dollars a barrel like it is right now,
there's a lot of people in this country that are
very happy with that, which is different than in the
nineties when we were having to bring in all the
oil and gas. And I'm curious from people out there.
We got loaded lines gene is up in North Dakota.
You say, you produce a lot of oil up in
(20:54):
North Dakota. What is the reaction when one hundred dollars
barrel of oil is happening so far as you see.
Speaker 9 (20:59):
It, Well, we pump about one point two million barrels
a day of oil out of the ground up here.
And if you were smart enough to hang on to
your mineral rights and didn't sell them to Herald Ham,
then you are making let's say they pump two thousand
barrels a day off your land. That two thousand times
(21:21):
one hundred is a pretty good payday for some old
guy sitting on a farm up here in North Dakota.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
What do you need to Sorry to cut you off,
but what is your cost? Like, what does oil and
gas need to be in North Dakota when you're in
a general sense, because I know it can vary depending
on how depth, and there's lots of complicating factors, but
in general, what do you need to have oil and
gas be to make a decent profit.
Speaker 9 (21:48):
I've always heard that between somewhere between seventy probably sixty
seven and seventy five dollars a barrel. Now, a lot
of companies are drillers and a lot of company are refiners.
They only refine, they don't go looking for oil. Some
do both. So it really depends on you know where
(22:09):
you're at. If you're just a refiner, you want fifty
dollars a barrel oil. If you're an explorer you want
one hundred dollars a barrel oil.
Speaker 5 (22:16):
Yeah, so you.
Speaker 9 (22:17):
Know, but up here a person needs if you take
the cost of oil divided by three three point six
y nine, that should give you what the price of
gasoline should be. And if you do that right now
at one hundred dollars, you'll come up with about three
dollars just short of three dollars and then you add
(22:38):
on and we're paying right now, we're paying three dollars
and forty nine cents a gallon for gasoline.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
Yeah, well, thank you for the call. We got a
lot of people who want to weigh in. This is
a little bit of an education for many of us
because I'm fascinated by the business here. Let's see, Eric,
you're in Midland, Texas. Midland is a huge oil producing area.
What's the reaction right now out to the price of
oil and gas and what do you think, in an
(23:03):
ideal world it should be.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
I'm just kind of curious from a business perspective.
Speaker 5 (23:09):
Hey, guys, it's great to be with y'all. Yeah, I
think it should be between sixty five and seventy dollars
a barrel. That'll have us to make plenty of money.
We are definitely oil country here in Middleland and Odessa,
and you know, we all get to stay busy. Everybody's
making good money and the rest of the country doesn't
(23:31):
have to suffer with the high gas prices and even ourselves.
I filled my truck up earlier today. I drive a
pefal truck one hundred and seventy five dollars to fill
my truck up so at Sting's on all ends. We
don't want to see a hundred, one hundred and thirty
dollars barrel. Well like we saw, you know, back in
Obama days. It just gets crazy.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
But so if you could wave a magic wand oil
and gas companies make money, but it doesn't become a
tax on the larger economics because there's all oil and
gases embedded in the cost of everything. Your number would
be seventy ish dollars a barrel would be a good
dollar figure.
Speaker 5 (24:11):
That's correct.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Thank you for the call. These are interesting call. Robert
and Corpus Christy. Robert, are you in oil and gas?
What's your background?
Speaker 6 (24:21):
Well, I'm an attorney. I talk to you guys, but
I'm sitting here right now watching my pump jack producing oil.
You know, about a couple hundred barrels a day, and
you know it's good to see. I hate it for
the country that we're taking this Hickey, But but Clay,
you hit it on the head. You're playing, finally playing
(24:41):
chess when everybody in the press is playing checkers. That
straight up horror movies is open. They don't have a
navy to patrol it. It's supposedly at the bottom of
the Persian Gulf, So the decisions are being made to
not send tankers through, not because they're really that scared.
There's really no blockade or anything that would stop there
from just sailing right through. What's stopping them is keeping
(25:03):
the price of oil high. And you hit the nail
on the head with that one.
Speaker 1 (25:07):
I think there, thank you for the call. I think
there's some fear that is certainly taking place here. But
my argument would be the longer it takes for the
oil and gas.
Speaker 4 (25:18):
Would would you would you want to be an oil
like a US or a you know, a Western oil
rig captain on one of these one of these ships
going through. Just to be clear, I would not take
that job right now. I would not take that lot
of money. But I wouldn't take that I wouldn't take
that job for like Sean Han any money like I
wouldn't take that job for big boy money.
Speaker 5 (25:40):
No.
Speaker 3 (25:41):
Wait, you know what, I wouldn't mind being in the
job of right now though.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Having a few thousand acres on the Permian basin right now,
when it's one hundred dollars one hundred dollars a barrel
Lindy in Houston is talking about that, Lindy, you're down in.
I would say Houston is probably a Uston Dallas, the
two biggest oil markets in the entire United States for
sure in terms of the money rolling in. What are
(26:07):
you hearing around Houston about one hundred dollars barrel of oil?
Speaker 10 (26:11):
Well, good morning.
Speaker 6 (26:14):
I guess that.
Speaker 10 (26:15):
I worked in the oil patch for about forty two years,
mainly in the international side. And the driver on what
the oil companies are looking for is the delta between
what they sell the oil for and how much they
have to pay for it to get it out of
the ground.
Speaker 3 (26:32):
Oh yeah, And.
Speaker 10 (26:35):
You know, when we were fifty dollars oil, the oil
companies probably had to spend thirty five or forty dollars
a barrel to drill the wells and get them fracked
and get that oil produced. So they didn't make a
heck of a lot of money. So when we take
it up to one hundred bucks a barrel, you know,
(26:56):
on the stuff that they've already drilled, they're making good
money on it. They don't have a real problem with
what's going on. Yeah, But now the negative is if
oil prices stay high, their costs are going to go up.
All the service companies spracking, drilling, all water haulage, all
the things that go with that's a good point cost
(27:18):
of production that's gonna go up if it stays high and.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
So so, do you agree that the ideal price is
about seventy dollars for your average oil and gas producer?
Speaker 10 (27:30):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (27:32):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Second question, you've been doing this forty you've been doing
this forty two years. How much different is it now
than the first Persian golf you know, the golf war,
when we weren't energy and dependent. How much more of
a you know, the economics of oil and gas pricing
increases changes based on the amount we're producing. Right, this
(27:54):
is one of the big impacts of the Trump administration
one point zero and just the growth in general in
what were able to produce. You've got to have seen
a tremendous difference in the impact over your forty two
year career.
Speaker 10 (28:08):
Yes, I have. But I mean you had the same
phenomenon back in the early nineties with with you know,
the invasion of Kuwait. I mean, the thrice of oil
went up, and unless you were messing around in that
part of the world, and you were in the old
business in West Texas, you were probably okay with that
price run up. And you know the same thing in
(28:30):
the invasion of Iraq. I mean, the Prasia oil goes up,
and if you're not in business there, it does doesn't
do a whole lot. When you get a big spike
in the short run, that just raises your revenue, doesn't
raise your cost spaces.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
So this is all very I mean again, Clay, this
is all very truly interesting about the oil and gas industry.
But well, how many people in this country are benefiting
from the high prices versus how many voters do not
like the high prices. And I think that that is
we're talking about the politics of this as well as
(29:07):
the economics of this. And also that was a very
important point that was made by one of the callers.
This is amazing too. We always say this, and we
mean this. This isn't We're not like sucking up or anything.
The amount of knowledge that we can draw upon from
all of you, all across the country. There's millions of
you who are listening, and what when you call in,
and we have obviously fantastic call screener to make sure
we're putting people on the air who really know what
(29:29):
they know what they're going to say, and know their stuff.
Speaker 3 (29:32):
It's incredible. So you are you're.
Speaker 4 (29:34):
Like our original AI and we can put out a
question and get an AI style answer here on the
old school phone lines. In terms of the love of expertise,
I think that's really interesting. But Clay, there's the producers, right,
the refiners, the people searching for it, the people refining it,
the people transporting it, the people.
Speaker 3 (29:50):
That are and disrupt.
Speaker 4 (29:52):
I mean, all of the big oil CEOs are all
saying we want business as usual in the Strait We
do not want any of this happen now. Maybe they
feel like they have to say that that's possible. You
really think so, because I think that they just want Look,
they're in a business where they get to make money
all the time. The world needs oil. They're providing what
we need. Right, It's like we got an addiction and
(30:14):
the only answer is more oil. I feel like they
would just like things to even out here and get
back to normal.
Speaker 1 (30:23):
I think the dollar figure is interesting that seventy dollars
they think is good. Fifty dollars is where Trump wanted it.
They wanted it at seventy. There's a delta there obviously
of difference. I think they're very very aware that people
blame them every time prices go up. This is why
I always feel bad for the average gas station owner,
as we've talked about, because I don't think a lot
(30:44):
of people even really understand that they are not gouging you.
The only way they make money is when you go
inside this average gas station. They make a couple of
pennies a gallon on oil and gas. They need you
to go buy a Snap. They still make Snapple. They
need you to go buy us Apple in the uh
nurse Snapple back in the day. I don't even know
if it's still like Rush was a big Snapple guy.
(31:05):
Snapple was great, right, guys.
Speaker 4 (31:07):
Wasn't Rush really into Snapple or am I am? I
imagining that, Oh yeah, he was a big fan of Snapple.
That that company really exists very much anymore. But they
need you to go into the convenience store and grab
a slim gym or some potato chips, and that's the
way they make money. The profit margin, by and large
comes from purchases in convenience store. Again, taking the thirty
(31:28):
thousand foot view here, though Clay are the Are they
all all in their totality? Does does Trump? Does the administration?
Do the oil company? Do they want the straight to
have one hundred percent of the traffic or do they?
Actually you really think? I mean this is this is
getting a little quasi conspiratorial. You think oil I think
(31:49):
that they a lot of them are not furious. I
don't know that there are. I think the political pressure
is not all raining down on it should be open.
I think for the globe economy we need it open.
I'm just saying that the energy and dependence of the
United States has changed some of the calculus associated with
(32:09):
when the price of oil and gas goes up. We
used to be net spenders as a country I'm talking
about now we're net beneficiaries. And so why was Trump
threatening to destroy like hospitals and orphanages a few days
ago in Iran if they don't open the strait?
Speaker 3 (32:25):
What was that all about?
Speaker 1 (32:26):
I think the long range we can't have a situation
where Iran controls the Straight of Horror moves for years
and years into the future. We cannot have that. But
I think the short term political calculus, like if you
told me this will be resolved in three months. I
don't think the idea that it is a tremendous, must
(32:49):
fixed situation imminently. I think there's actually a little bit
more negotiating leverage than because of the current energy and
dependence than there would have been in nineteen or nineteen
ninety one.
Speaker 4 (33:01):
You get into the summer and there's a big, nasty,
mean spike in oil prices.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
I'm going to remind you of all this.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
Wow and look, there is a disconnect to your point.
I think it's an important one between sometimes what oil
and gas companies want and what the average consumer wants.
And by the way, I'm the average consumer. I filled
up my car this morning. It cost me a lot more.
I got an suv. I got to fit all the
kids in.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
The back of it. It cost me.
Speaker 4 (33:24):
Its like oil prices, smoil prices. I drive at Tesla.
I also have a Tesla. I also have a Tesla.
By the way, I plug it into the wall like
a cell phone. It costs me absolutely nothing on electricity.
By and large, car drives itself.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
It's kind of I was on a call and one
of our guys said, are you is that the car
driving itself? In the background I'm like, yeah, I just
get in the car now, just have a bunch of calls.
Don't have to worry about anything. So I got a
tesla in an suv. I'm covering both ends of the spectrum. Look,
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Speaker 3 (35:04):
Code.
Speaker 7 (35:05):
Level up your brain and balance out your day with
the right amount of information and entertainment. Clay Travis and
Buck Sexton on the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 11 (35:16):
Or wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 4 (35:18):
Welcome back into Clay and Buck where we get to
hear Clay's geo political analysis, which is something along the
lines of so.
Speaker 3 (35:25):
We take the oil, we go in, or maybe we
don't take the oil. You'd know that better than anyone.
Speaker 4 (35:30):
Do we want the oil, we want the prices high,
we don't want It's pretty amazing stuff that we're fighting
out here, Clay, that the world is working in four
D chess with oil rigs backed up, backed up, hundreds
of them now, and the oil barons are sitting there
like fat cats twirling their whiskers.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (35:51):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (35:51):
Makes a lot of money interesting, a lot of money
in the Middle East over the oil not being able
to get out either.
Speaker 3 (35:57):
And Jim in Minnesota, he's fired up.
Speaker 1 (35:59):
He's saying, I'm not Jim fire away.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
Jeremy God, yeah yeah.
Speaker 11 (36:09):
And you hear me earlier in the week, I had
to listen to you stand and Trump's tweet about annihilating
the civilization of Iran. We didn't take it the right way.
What do you really meant?
Speaker 10 (36:21):
Was X Y and Z.
Speaker 11 (36:22):
Now I've got to listen to you talk about. Oh,
oil prices and the tread of harm mood being bottled
up is good for us.
Speaker 1 (36:30):
No, I didn't say thank you, m I didn't say
it was good for US. I said it's good for
oil people. And now that the United States is a
next is a net exporter of oil and gas one
hundred dollars a barrel oil and gas is great if
you're in the oil and gas industry. It's different when
you're filling up your cars. But that's the reality. I
(36:50):
haven't heard anybody talking about it. They're they're living it
up right now in Texas. They're popping bottles
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