June 3, 2026 • 36 mins
In Hour 2 of the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, the hosts shift focus to foreign policy, national security, election integrity, and key U.S. Senate race developments, delivering a politically driven analysis of President Donald Trump’s leadership, Middle East tensions involving Iran, California election delays, and a potentially explosive political controversy in Maine. This hour emphasizes real-time geopolitical strategy, domestic political uncertainty, and the broader implications for upcoming elections.
The hour begins with discussion of a recent interview between President Donald Trump and journalist Miranda Devine, highlighting Trump’s comments on Iran, its leadership structure, and ongoing diplomatic and military tensions. The hosts analyze Trump’s remarks about potentially meeting Iranian leadership figures and the uncertainty surrounding who truly holds power within Iran’s regime. They connect this to ongoing concerns about global energy security and the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing how disruptions in shipping lanes and rising insurance costs for tankers could significantly impact oil markets, global trade, and U.S. fuel prices. The conversation underscores broader fears about geopolitical instability and supply chain risk, while also noting signals from the White House that officials remain confident Trump’s strategy will ultimately succeed.
Clay and Buck further evaluate Trump’s handling of the situation, playing audio in which the president expresses confidence in U.S. military strength and ongoing operations, including references to actions in Venezuela and Iran. They frame Trump as a “wartime president” managing multiple international challenges, while emphasizing his belief that the situation will resolve relatively quickly. The hosts also address reports of tension between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pushing back on narratives that suggest Trump is influenced or controlled by foreign leaders, instead portraying him as an independent decision-maker prioritizing U.S. interests.
A major portion of Hour 2 revisits the ongoing California election controversy, focusing heavily on the state’s prolonged vote-counting process. The hosts express frustration that final results for key races—including the California governor primary and Los Angeles mayoral race—could take up to 37 days to certify, arguing this undermines voter confidence and creates prolonged political uncertainty. A caller from California provides additional context, explaining that mail-in ballot systems, extended deadlines, and delayed reporting schedules contribute to the slow process. The hosts contrast California with states like Florida, where votes are counted rapidly, and argue that delays could have national implications for control of Congress, especially if tightly contested races determine the balance of power in the House.
The conversation also touches on voter turnout and political competitiveness, noting that relatively low turnout in Los Angeles contrasts with claims that expanded mail-in voting increases participation. Despite the frustrations with the system, there is optimism among some callers and commentators that races involving candidates like Steve Hilton and Spencer Pratt could spark broader political engagement and potentially attract crossover voters, particularly in debates around issues like homelessness, governance, and urban policy.
In the latter half of Hour 2, Clay and Buck pivot to a developing story in the Maine U.S. Senate race, focusing on Democratic candidate Graham Platner (as referenced in the transcript) and reports of potentially damaging allegations that could emerge from major media outlets. They speculate that these developments could dramatically impact the race, especially heading into a critical primary. The hosts suggest that internal Democratic Party dynamics may be at play, with establishment figures possibly positioning alternatives such as Governor Janet Mills as a backup candidate if Platner falters. They compare the situation to previous political scandals and campaign shakeups, framing it as a potential “October surprise-style” moment occurring earlier in the election cycle that could reshape the race and benefit incumbent Republican Susan Collins.
The hour also includes discussion of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, which Clay notes are increasingly useful tools for tracking election probabilities in real time. He argues these markets often move faster than official vote counts and can serve as a leading indicator for outcomes when probabilities exceed certain thresholds, offering a modern lens into data-driven election forecasting and political betting trends.
Make sure you never miss a second of the show by subscribing to the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton show podcast wherever you get your podcasts!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Second hour of Clay and Buck kicks off right now.
Thanks for being here with us, everybody. Our friend Miranda
Divine of the New York Coast and podsforst One.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It's a great lady.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Clay and I both like you've met her in person
a few times, right, Clay, how you bet you.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Guys have hung out right? Yeah? Yeah, I've had.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Some friends, great stories.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
We're big brand of Divine fans here.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
She had a very nice, very nice some people are
saying with your favorite president, a very nice sit down
with President Trump.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
They covered some important topics here.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
First off, on the I saw you, I saw you
tweet on this earlier, on this Mudge Taba or a
little mo as you as you call him the gait,
the gayetola. You know, I start to worry about this, Clay.
I don't want you to end up on some like
(00:57):
IRGC lists. All right, buddy, you keep calling him a
little more.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
There doesn't seem to be that much pushback on the
idea that he's gay. It's kind of a surprise to
me because I would think being an Iranian religious cleric cleric,
it's not really well accepted if you happen to be gay.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
I'm just saying I don't want you know, I actually
used to work at a place where people that I
knew ended up on like al Qaeda hit lists that
actually happened. Uh and yeah, and so you know, nothing
had They're they're fine, they're fine. But it was a
little eerie to see your name turn up on a
what a mine?
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Didn't you know?
Speaker 1 (01:33):
Which I guess I wasn't important enough, but I knew
some people who did. And uh, you know that's you
know that, because they'll put these threats out there on
the Internet and stuff like that. Nonetheless, I don't want
you getting in too much trouble with the I ergy
see with your Gayetola comments. Okay, that's all I'm saying. Nonetheless,
Trump says that he would like to meet lil Mo.
This is cut seven. This is from pod pod Force Woman, Render,
(01:56):
Divine Play It.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
So we had various levels of people and set is gone.
The second set is gone, part of the third set
is gone. And the people we're dealing with, we know
they're the people that are leading the country.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
Is it the gay Ayatolla?
Speaker 5 (02:08):
He's involved? Absolutely? Really yeah. I think they have a
lot of respect for him.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
So is he his compassmentus. He's not sick in hospital
in a coma as.
Speaker 5 (02:16):
We well, I don't know.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
I haven't had the privilege of meeting him, but I'm
not hearing student. Great, you're doing better if you believe
the stories. Is you know, missing a lot of different parts.
Who's making the decision? Well, they say he is giving
approval because that's the way it has been for a
long long time, his father and then him. I guess
it's a succession. But we seem to be getting along
(02:38):
quite well.
Speaker 4 (02:39):
Would you like to meet him or meet any of
the Iranians in person?
Speaker 5 (02:42):
I never thought of it. Actually, it's a very good question.
I'll think of it. Yeah, I'd like to meet him.
I'd like to meet everybody. I'd like to meet him.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
We probably will meet at some point, depending on how
it all works out.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Prouble things play real quick here. Did Miranda say the
gay Ayatola?
Speaker 2 (02:57):
I think she did, Yeah, I think yeah, ye. I
mean it's kind of widely discussed. I think the New
York Post was the first paper, if I remember, to
actually put out that Iran's Ayatola might be gay, and
that was one reason that they didn't necessarily want him
as the successor, and then there was the decision made
(03:19):
that he should be the successor, and then lots of people,
Buck don't know where he is or even if he
is still alive. So this is one of the big
challenges I think, is communicating in general with whoever is
making decisions inside of Iran. I'm not even sure we
officially know. And in the meantime, that's also why it
(03:41):
takes so long to go back and forth with different
versions of what's going to happen here. So on the
Straight of hor Moves, I was doing a bunch of
reading on the strait of hoar Moves, as one does,
and I do think one of the signature elements of
this discussion, which you and I have kind of hit
(04:01):
on quite a bit, is who's going to send their
ships back in It's one thing for these ships to
get out of the Straight of hor Moves and be
given the ability to take their cargo wherever they want
to go around the world. Buck, if you suddenly were
not a radio show host and you were you were
(04:25):
in charge of international shipping, do you think maybe you
would pick a route that didn't involve the Straight of
Horror Moves? If you had been captured, effectively held hostage
in the Straight of Horror Moves for months. Do you
think it might be hard to find a crew that
wants to go back into the Straight of hor Moves?
A lot of discussion about getting the ships out, and
(04:46):
that's important. My question is who's ever going back? That
seems like an awful potential risk to take. If your
ship is making money based on transiting goods, the danger
of being stuck there is pretty substantial. And there was
a huge write up about Lloyd's of London and how
much we remember when I talked about the insurance premiums
(05:08):
and we had all the insurance agents calling in and
everything else. I still think this is going to be
a massive part of the story because the insurance premiums
have skyrocketed, as you would well imagine at Lloyd's of
London for any of these ships. Are they even getting
right insurance premiums to let ships go back into the
(05:29):
Strait of Horror Moves? Given what we've already seen and done.
I will tell you the word from the White House.
Having just been in DC and talked to some folks
who are very involved on the national security side, they
are not worried at all. They feel very confident that
Trump has got this and it's all going to work out.
(05:49):
I mean that really is that is.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
The word, the vibe, whatever, the party line, all the
rest of it.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
So I did not since.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
They are approaching this with any concern. I think that
their view is, or I should say, their view is
from the White House that Trump is gonna get what
he wants out of this and everyone just needs to
give more time and be patient.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
We'll see.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
I'm not because the second I'm just telling you what
the word from the White House is, the second I
say this, we're gonna get people like.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Do you know what I paid for gas this morning?
I'm like, I will sell gas prices are have come
back down. I think I saw. I know they are
under four dollars where I am because that's what I
paid this past weekend. But I also know that nationwide,
I think the price of gas is back down to
(06:42):
around four twenty one ish for for thirty one something
in that neighborhood average gas prices. Now, which I was
going to get into this at the top of the
third hour, but in addition to doing all my research
on the Strait of Horror, moves. I was looking at
all the data and how things have gone in the
(07:03):
first several years, purely from an economic perspective, because we
got into that real discussion yesterday, which I still think
is a big and significant one about why consumer confidence
is so low and uh, and you can say, okay, well,
there's different things. Gas prices are high. This is not
the worst, not even close to the worst economy we've
(07:25):
ever had in fifty years. So why is there this
sort of national malaise? Yes, there's a certain segment of
the population that hates President Trump. Let's say that's forty
percent of Americans that are just obsessed, that believe that
he is uniquely evil. But and they're not going to
be persuaded that anything is fine. Even if suddenly they
(07:47):
were all multimillionaires, they would still find a reason to
dislike President Trump.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Can I just Trump actually was because I was telling
you what the word from the White House is kind
of off, you know, off stage, if you will. So
I'm with some people in DC and was talking to them.
But here is Trump saying, when I asked about this specifically,
how does he feel about the Iran situation? This is
again on podforst one. This is nine hit it.
Speaker 5 (08:13):
I think we're going to be in very good shape.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
We're in good shape right now. We have the blockade,
which is amazing. Our mayvy is great. We have the
strongest military in the world I built. I built the
military on my first through my first term, and I'm
using it during my second term. I didn't think I'd
be using it this much. But we had a big
success in Venezuela. It was over in one day. We
have a great relationship with the people in Venezuela. The
(08:36):
oil companies are moving in now with us, and that's
been That's been a tremendous success, even from the economic
sampolet of the oil standpoint. But that was essentially much
less than a one day war and a great success.
And we're having a very great success in Iran militarily.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
So you think the blockhead is still be in place
by label.
Speaker 5 (08:54):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
I mean, I think it could be, but I think
it's unlikely. I think it will have it. I think
this will resolve itself fair.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
He's saying it will resolve itself fairly quickly. So there
you go, Uh, take take that as you will.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
President. Seems unbothered by the situation.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
Doesn't seem like there's more urgency from him. It's just
continued negotiations and the blockade is in place. So that
is where that is something else, Clay that came up
here because this I don't think we talked with this
on the show. There was an Axios report that Trump
called net and Yahoo and said you are Trump to
(09:32):
Net Yahoo, you are bleeping crazy. And he was asked
about this, and I want you to hear his response
to being asked directly about it.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Play six.
Speaker 4 (09:47):
You were angry with him, you said, you effing crazy,
what are you effing doing? I helped you stay out
of jail?
Speaker 5 (09:54):
Is that true?
Speaker 4 (09:55):
Did you speak to him in those chides?
Speaker 5 (09:56):
I always say angry.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
I was a little bit perturbed that is constantly fighting
with Lebanon. You know, at some point, as it'd be be,
we're going to step this to stap it. But I
have a very good relationship. We've done well, done well together.
He always says we could never have done it, but
everybody knows that we could have never done it without
the United States. But we've We've I've worked very well together.
(10:19):
I like byb a lot and I've worked very well
with him. We had a you know where I'm a
wartime president, he's a wartime prime minister, very important part
of the world. And I think we've done, you know,
very well. We've we've gotten alone, very well together.
Speaker 2 (10:33):
Yeah, I think he's like, look, we get a little
hot into the collar. But I love the guy. It's
all good. That seems to be the takeaway there. I
think this is funny only in the context of we
have been told by many people on both the right
and the left, because the anti Jewish sentiment has certainly
percolated from the left but also from some elements of
(10:54):
the right, that Trump is completely at the behest of
net Ya who And there's tons of evidence actually, which
is the only logical story here, that net Yahoo actually
has to do what Trump wants to do because America
is the huge international power and Israel is not. So
(11:18):
the whole idea of Trump only is acting at the
behest of net Yahoo has always been crazy, and I
wonder how they calibrate in their minds those people who
have made this argument when Trump is just legitimately cursing
and berating net Yahoo because of some of the choices
net Yah who is making that he doesn't support. You
(11:40):
know what, there's ten million people who live in Israel. Roughly,
there's three hundred and fifty million people here. Our overall
economic might and military might dwarfs Israel's. Anyone who was
arguing that a country that's roughly the size of New
Jersey was going to be dominating the decison vision making
(12:01):
of the United States I always think was crazy. But
these little evidence out here, I give credit for Manda
de Mind getting that story out. I do think that
Israel helped to convince Trump that there could be a
regime change. I think that's true. But the idea that
Israel is dictating to Trump what they can and can't
(12:21):
do is absolutely here's a good word for you.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
We said this. We said this from the very beginning.
No one dictates to Trump anything. Okay, this is reality.
Do I think that the reporting about nn YAHOO pushing
that there could be regime change and that the time
was right for it is probably accurate?
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Yes?
Speaker 1 (12:39):
And did that end up being a good assessment? It
was not a good assessment. But was that his honest assessment?
That's you know, to each his own on the analysis there.
But Trump believed or you know, Trump was like, Okay,
I'll do that.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
I'll do that.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
There wasn't some leverage, There wasn't some special button that
net Yahoo could hit where goes Oh, okay, Trump will
do whatever. That button doesn't exist. And we said that
from the very beginning. Trump is gonna do what Trump
is going to do. And he acted as he thought
was in the best interests of this country as commander
in chief. And he seems very still at peace with
the decision, even though the perhaps delay in some of
(13:17):
this has got some people a little a little bit concerned.
But we'll see, we'll see how it. We're going to look.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
Into this, as Trump says, We're gonna look at this.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
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Speaker 2 (14:30):
Clay and Bucking. Dear wait, welcome back in Clay and Buck.
I know you were optimistic off the top, Buck, but
this has been shared by Roxanne Hodge, who is called
in with us. Yesterday, the official California election results page
says it will take thirty seven days to count the
(14:52):
votes in California. Right now, this is I mean, this
is just utterly ridiculous on all fronts. And in the
meantime I looked I was just telling Buck off Air.
There has been no movement since I woke up this
morning in any tallies coming from California, in both the
(15:18):
mayor's race and also in the in the governor's race.
Basically the counting, at least the tally that I am seeing,
has been effectively frozen for all morning into what is
now the afternoon. I know it's what eleven twenty five
or ten twenty five I guess in California right now,
(15:39):
So I get that there is a that is still
mourning out there, but this is bonkers. And the longer
this goes on, regardless of what your politics are, this
is awful for trust in results in any way. And
if I were Spencer Pratt or I was Steve Hilton,
(15:59):
I mean, these guys are living in a sort of
never ending world of uncertainty as they try to figure
out whether they're advancing into this runoff or not, and
it may end up being very close. Maybe it doesn't
matter as much when there's a ten or fifteen spread
in what the outcome is, but likely for both Steve
(16:21):
Hilton and advancing into the final two, and also for
Spencer Pratt. This is going to be a relatively close
race on both fronts given how many people are running.
I will say, and I think we had a talkback
on this, but Katie Porter, remember her, Buck, she got
five percent of the vote.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Yeah, she's just ready to throw a big vat of
boiling hot potatoes at all the voters of California right now,
not a surprise, very upset at them.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
And that nationwide, by the way, that's a reference if
you forgot what Katie Porter did nation why this could
matter because the overall how else as happened in twenty
twenty two is likely going to come down to what
the results are in California, and we're not going to
know who the head of the House is, like who
(17:10):
which party won the House potentially for a month, as
everybody just kind of sits around and waits on California
to slowly be able to tabulate all these results. It's
just it's unacceptable, and to me it's also symptomatic Buck
of the just utter collapse of California as a desirable
(17:31):
place to live. They can't even count votes. They counted
votes faster. They counted votes faster back in the nineteenth
century than they are managing to do right now. That
would seem to be not fast enough. Yes, and also
a sign of things going in reverse in a very
significant way that we're taking longer to count now than
(17:53):
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Welcome back in here to Clay and Bucks.
Speaker 1 (18:54):
So I had a lot of talk there about the
situation that Donald Trump is handling. It's got a whole
range of things on as plate as the commander in
chief would tend to something else that's going on here though, Clay,
I know you talked about it.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Yes, what would you have? We got a caller who
was calling in to update us on the amount of
time it's going to take to count. She called in
with us the other Day's good, Roxanne Hoge, I believe
you can let us let me know if I'm pronouncing
your last name correctly or not. I saw you just
tweet and I had the team reach out to you.
(19:31):
Thirty seven days is the current tracker of how long
it's going to take for all of these California votes
to be tabulated.
Speaker 6 (19:40):
Oh yes, sir, it's hogue rhymes with rogue. But the
most important thing is that, yes, California for years. This
predates COVID, This predates are all the mail in elections
they normally get. Thirty days. I don't know if they
gave themselves a holiday boost for the fourth of July,
but we are looking at a timeline that we will
(20:01):
not have certified results until July tenth.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
That's insane. That's insane.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
Why can you try to help us understand? Roxanne cool
name by the way, why is that the way?
Speaker 2 (20:16):
Look? How can anyone think that that's okay?
Speaker 6 (20:20):
Well, I think, and I'm getting inside their minds now,
They've always taken a very long time to add in
the mail in ballots, and now that we've gone to
all mail in, so even if people drop off their
ballots on election day at a vote center, they count
as mail in. They give seven days for ballots to arrive.
But even before that, like last night, the first batch
(20:43):
of results we got weren't from the electronic vote machines
in vote centers. One would think that you can tabulate that,
like you could go on Twitter slash x right now,
put up a survey that last twelve hours, and when
the survey closes, you would see the results. I honestly
do not understand why the electronic vote tabulation takes so long.
(21:07):
If you look at the registrar voters in Los Angeles,
which they do a good job, but I don't know
if it's union breaks what it is. They are going
to do updates. It's going to be an update today
that's going to report it at four pm Pacific, and
then we don't get another one till tomorrow at four pm,
and then Friday, like they're keeping bankers hours for something
(21:27):
that's incredibly important.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
This is important too, you said, and I don't remember.
You correct me if I'm wrong. I don't remember in
the nineties or the early two thousands that there was
this issue with California votes being tabulated. And Buck is
in Florida right now. Obviously all of us remember what
happened in Florida in two thousand when it took forever
(21:50):
to decide who won that state and Florida fixed everything.
And now a couple of hours after Florida is done
with the votes, they shut down the the ballots. We
know exactly what the results are. It's instantaneous. When did
California start doing this? And obviously it's intentional. Their idea is, oh,
(22:12):
this is going to allow us to get a higher
voter participation rate. I'm sure is what they're saying. But
this is I think, frankly an excusable and indefensible to
the rest of the country, and I know for many
Californians as well well.
Speaker 6 (22:26):
It's been going on for at least a decade. I
don't know if you guys remember Congresswoman Young Kim was
declared a winner, went to DC, did her freshman orientation
in Congress, and then too bad, so Sad was replaced.
And that was back in twenty eighteen or twenty twenty.
I think it happened, you know, with Rick Caruso in
(22:48):
the La mayoral race. Oh yay, he won, and then
all the other ballots come in and in terms of
them claiming that we've increased turnout, I mean, right now,
you know, La County is looking maybe if we're lucky,
we'll hit twenty five twenty eight percent turnout. But that's
the crazy thing. We don't even know what the denominator
(23:08):
of votes past will be for a full week.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
It's crazy.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
So how are you feeling about, Not forget about the
vote counting part of it, because that's obviously a mess,
But from what we've seen so far, are you optimistic
given the strong initial showing from Steve Hilton and from
Spencer Pratt, what's your sense of it.
Speaker 6 (23:30):
I'm cautiously optimistic. But what I'm really happy about is
that we are now going to have conversations about the
best way to run something. The fact that Karen Bass
couldn't win out right when Democrat politicians here who are
incumbents just skate, They normally just nobody cares. They just skate.
The fact that he has opened up a flank that's
(23:50):
going to be a car like do you like hoop
on the streets? Because that's what you're going to vote for?
And that conversation will take place with great on light
and attention because Spencer is brilliant at getting that. And
then the same thing with Steve Hilton. You cannot be
making the argument as be Sarah is trying to that
California needs fixing and I'm the guy to fix it
(24:14):
when your party broke it.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
No doubt if these results were to hold, Buck was
being the optimistic one for a change off the start
of the show today. How optimistic are you that Steve
Hilton and Spencer Pratt now in one on one runoffs
would be able to reach across and bring in some
traditional Democrat voters. Are you optimistic that would occur, because again,
(24:40):
finally you're down to a head to head. If these
guys can officially get the NOD to advance to the runoff.
Speaker 6 (24:47):
I am one hundred percent optimistic. And I don't just
say that because I'm cheerleader for the party officially. I
have seen with my own eyes Democrats coming out for
Spencer and for for St. There were even Democrats who
donated to the Republican Party of La County to help
spread the word and get out the vote of our
You know, we're only just under fifteen percent of the
(25:10):
electorate in the city of La but they wanted to
make sure that we have a real conversation and that
we can actually have good governance. The people who keep
talking about, you know, experience, well, the experience that we've
seen so far has driven us into the ground. And
I say this as someone from a third world country.
I drive from the airport to my family home in
(25:31):
Kingston on nicer streets than I do from lax to
my home in North Hollywood.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
I'm just wondering, and maybe the answer is much longer.
How long does it take like in Jamaica to count
election blos.
Speaker 6 (25:46):
Much today, pretty much today. To be fair, we'll have
a much better idea in two weeks. I mean, you
know it takes thirty seven days to certify, but really
they're going to jam. You know, two weeks in we'll
really know what we're looking at.
Speaker 2 (25:59):
This is saying thank you for the update. Will you
please keep calling in and updating us as these counts continue,
because I know I speak for a lot of people
out there who voted for Steve Hilton and who voted
for Spencer Pratt and say, I know how this story
is going to end. I've lived through it before. Democrats
keep counting till they get the numbers they need.
Speaker 6 (26:21):
We're a little bit like Lucy with the foot, you know,
Charlie Brown and Lucy but's the football. But I have faith.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
Thank you like your faith.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
Thank you so much for the call. Thanks for the update.
Got such great California listeners, Clay. Can I take us
now to the other side of the country. Yeah, Maine, Maine.
Speaker 2 (26:38):
Where I'm just gonna tell you guys this. I don't
think this has happened yet.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
I have been told by my people, because I know people,
that there's gonna be some platiner stuff coming down today.
I don't think the story has dropped yet, But more
stuff and possibly some very damaging stuff about this, or
I should say alleged, Uh, what's the right word. I
(27:05):
am told it will be very damaging stuff. How about that?
Speaker 2 (27:09):
And potentially knock him out of the race. Damaging stuff
is what you have been told is coming.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
This is what I have been told by people who
know these things. Now, that's not a guarantee, and sometimes
people get this, you know, until you're now it's coming
from the New York Times, I might add, is where
it is expected to drop. So remember this is pro
Democrat media, and you have to wonder, okay, well, what's
their approach going to be with this? But at least
(27:36):
you have here Senator John Fetterman, who some of you
like to remind us, does vote with Democrats like ninety
percent of the time, but he does say things that
annoy Democrats and occasionally he'll vote with Republicans.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
So there's that here.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
He is on the Grand Platner for Senator situation twenty five.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
Hit it.
Speaker 7 (27:57):
What kind of a.
Speaker 8 (27:57):
Creeper has been on a decade on a platform like
kick and send a dozen explicit kinds of messages?
Speaker 2 (28:05):
And who knows what else.
Speaker 5 (28:07):
Would it be better for Democrats if he was not
the candidate.
Speaker 8 (28:09):
Here all I'm saying it's like, you know, when I
was growing up, if someone had a clear Nazi tattoo
on them, you probably could consume or conclude that there's
a Nazi sympathizer. How you know, at some point you're
going to continue to defend that or dismiss that.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
Yeah, that's that's a tough one.
Speaker 1 (28:32):
By the way, the Nazi tattoo thing, I think is
going to be a whole lot more defensible, at least
politically than what I'm hearing is likely to come out
about Platner in the next twenty four hours, if not
in the next few hours.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
Play.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
So what do Democrats do here? I mean, remember Swallwell
just got knocked. Now they had Bisera, So this is
this See what you what you have to keep in
mind is, yes, it was Democrats who took down Swallwell. Well,
it was really who came forward and told their stories,
but Democrat media covered it. But they had a plan
B and Bessera is now either number one or number two.
(29:09):
Well for the time being, I know we can't really say,
but he's clearly a leading contender and a former Obama guy.
So they had a plan B. What's the plan B.
If Platner gets.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
Just Janet Millster, they're going to go right back to
Janet Mills, who is the current governor. That's who Schumer endorsed.
So they thought that Janet Mills had a better chance
of winning than Graham Platner did. And that's why I
think all these stories are coming out right now. They're
trying to ko him before the primary is Tuesday. This
(29:43):
is crazy stuff. And again I think it's swallwell two
point zero. I think there's an element of Joe and
Kamala and the way that whole Biden Kamala switch went down,
because I think they want to knock Graham Platner out
of this race before Tuesday. Remember, and we've talked about
this on the program before. I don't know when it started.
(30:03):
But you don't drop out anymore. You suspend your campaign.
It's like you're just kind of hanging there, like you
you haven't quite said, hey, I'm out. You're waiting to
see if some sort of chaos is gonna drop. And
Janet Mills recently came back out. I don't know if
we have that audio, I know we had it yesterday
and she said, Buck, to answer your question. I think
(30:25):
she's letting it be known. She made a big deal
saying I didn't drop out, I just suspended my campaign.
So she is there and is ready to resume the
campaign if there is the force out of Platner. And
I think the fear that they have, Buck is that
Susan Collins is gonna beat a wounded Platner, and so
(30:46):
they're trying to kao him. The fact that it's coming
from the New York Times. Tommy Larin, Tommy Larin sent
me a message. She said, you know, it's like remember
the horror movie back in the day where that you
you would get like the dun Dun, dun. The phone
call is coming from inside the house. You remember that
horror story back in the day. It's like, you know, babysitters,
(31:09):
that's like the right doesn't that happen in Scream? And
they realize, you know, because I can see you, you know,
with the scary well, he's outside. I'm a scream expert.
He's outside the house. But but the concept is, back
in the day, babysitters downstairs, somebody keeps calling she keeps
hanging up, and then she calls the police and they say,
you need to get out of the house right now.
And she says why and they say, because that call
(31:30):
is coming from upstairs in your house. Uh, this is
the call coming from inside. So they are threatening Graham Platner.
I would imagine, Buck, there's probably phone calls going on
behind the scenes now where if you drop out, maybe
these stories aren't released that are as damning as they
would be if you refuse to should drop out. So
(31:55):
I think this is a mess. I would pay attention
to it. I think it is significant and just FYI.
So I like your call, Buck. If you look at
the prediction markets, Susan Collins is almost favored now to
win that main seat. The money has been pouring in
on her, which suggests to me people think that Platner
(32:18):
is a wounded candidate as we get ready for that
Tuesday primary next week. Also, i'd point out, Buck, the
Platner campaign put out a new poll saying everything is fine,
We're not losing any support at all, and they warn't
up very much, and that's an internal campaign. It just
kind of feels like we got the panic that is
(32:39):
underway we'll dive into all that and more when we
come back. In the meantime, if you are a small
business owner, and I know many of you out there are,
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Speaker 1 (33:55):
Slash learn Hang with you guys right there when you
need them most.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
Just pre sent them on the iHeart AD. Welcome back
in Clay and Buck. We got a lot of talkbacks,
a lot of different reactions rolling in from so many
different perspectives out there. Let's go to some of these
phone calls. Guys have been waiting a bit for a while.
Dawn in Florida, fire Away, Dawn, Hi, guys, Matt respect.
Speaker 9 (34:24):
First of all, I love you guys. First time reached
getting through calling from the Free State of Florida, and
I just wanted to say that you know how Trump
is to stay too big to rig, so I feel
like that's just what they're going to have to really
hope for over there in California.
Speaker 2 (34:39):
Yeah, that's good a lot, Yeah, asking a lot, asking
a lot. Thank you When they're going to continue to
count votes for thirty seven days, I just I get nervous, Mike,
and Indiana's got a good question, Mike fire Away.
Speaker 7 (34:55):
Hey, Hey, gentlemen, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my call. Clay,
I hear you reached to the betting markets almost daily,
and my question is has any study been done about
the predictive nature of those markets? Just how accurate are
they in predicting the winner?
Speaker 2 (35:13):
Well, thank you for the call, and look, I think
they're still in progress. Polymarket and Calshi are the two
big ones that are legal. As the markets get bigger,
they become more reliable. I have not seen an over
ninety percent chance that has been wrong yet. It's over
ninety percent. Now. For anybody out there that thinks probabilistically,
(35:37):
if you get a ninety percent chance of something happening,
there could still be ten percent chance that the other
thing's going to happen, right, So it is like any
other probability. But to answer your question, when they get
to ninety percent, I have found them to be quite reliable.
And I'll give you another example of how I was
using them last night, Buck. I was watching the votes
(35:59):
come in, and then I was constantly going over to
the polymarket site to see what the percentage chances were
of who was going to win the race. They usually
moved faster than the actual vote tallies when people are
putting their real money behind it. There was one upset.
We'll talk about what happened in Iowa, a winner that
(36:21):
was not endorsed by President Trump. What that story is,
and it connects to Russia. Limbaugh, I think you guys
are going to enjoy the clip that we have for
you about the new nominee to be the next governor
of Iowa. We'll talk more about sixty minutes and Buck,
I've got a reason for optimism. Data needed, the need
(36:42):
when we come back final hour Wednesday next
Second hour of Clay and Buck kicks off right now.
Thanks for being here with us, everybody. Our friend Miranda
Divine of the New York Coast and podsforst One.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It's a great lady.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Clay and I both like you've met her in person
a few times, right, Clay, how you bet you.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Guys have hung out right? Yeah? Yeah, I've had.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Some friends, great stories.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
We're big brand of Divine fans here.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
She had a very nice, very nice some people are
saying with your favorite president, a very nice sit down
with President Trump.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
They covered some important topics here.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
First off, on the I saw you, I saw you
tweet on this earlier, on this Mudge Taba or a
little mo as you as you call him the gait,
the gayetola. You know, I start to worry about this, Clay.
I don't want you to end up on some like
(00:57):
IRGC lists. All right, buddy, you keep calling him a
little more.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
There doesn't seem to be that much pushback on the
idea that he's gay. It's kind of a surprise to
me because I would think being an Iranian religious cleric cleric,
it's not really well accepted if you happen to be gay.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
I'm just saying I don't want you know, I actually
used to work at a place where people that I
knew ended up on like al Qaeda hit lists that
actually happened. Uh and yeah, and so you know, nothing
had They're they're fine, they're fine. But it was a
little eerie to see your name turn up on a
what a mine?
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Didn't you know?
Speaker 1 (01:33):
Which I guess I wasn't important enough, but I knew
some people who did. And uh, you know that's you
know that, because they'll put these threats out there on
the Internet and stuff like that. Nonetheless, I don't want
you getting in too much trouble with the I ergy
see with your Gayetola comments. Okay, that's all I'm saying. Nonetheless,
Trump says that he would like to meet lil Mo.
This is cut seven. This is from pod pod Force Woman, Render,
(01:56):
Divine Play It.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
So we had various levels of people and set is gone.
The second set is gone, part of the third set
is gone. And the people we're dealing with, we know
they're the people that are leading the country.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
Is it the gay Ayatolla?
Speaker 5 (02:08):
He's involved? Absolutely? Really yeah. I think they have a
lot of respect for him.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
So is he his compassmentus. He's not sick in hospital
in a coma as.
Speaker 5 (02:16):
We well, I don't know.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
I haven't had the privilege of meeting him, but I'm
not hearing student. Great, you're doing better if you believe
the stories. Is you know, missing a lot of different parts.
Who's making the decision? Well, they say he is giving
approval because that's the way it has been for a
long long time, his father and then him. I guess
it's a succession. But we seem to be getting along
(02:38):
quite well.
Speaker 4 (02:39):
Would you like to meet him or meet any of
the Iranians in person?
Speaker 5 (02:42):
I never thought of it. Actually, it's a very good question.
I'll think of it. Yeah, I'd like to meet him.
I'd like to meet everybody. I'd like to meet him.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
We probably will meet at some point, depending on how
it all works out.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Prouble things play real quick here. Did Miranda say the
gay Ayatola?
Speaker 2 (02:57):
I think she did, Yeah, I think yeah, ye. I
mean it's kind of widely discussed. I think the New
York Post was the first paper, if I remember, to
actually put out that Iran's Ayatola might be gay, and
that was one reason that they didn't necessarily want him
as the successor, and then there was the decision made
(03:19):
that he should be the successor, and then lots of people,
Buck don't know where he is or even if he
is still alive. So this is one of the big
challenges I think, is communicating in general with whoever is
making decisions inside of Iran. I'm not even sure we
officially know. And in the meantime, that's also why it
(03:41):
takes so long to go back and forth with different
versions of what's going to happen here. So on the
Straight of hor Moves, I was doing a bunch of
reading on the strait of hoar Moves, as one does,
and I do think one of the signature elements of
this discussion, which you and I have kind of hit
(04:01):
on quite a bit, is who's going to send their
ships back in It's one thing for these ships to
get out of the Straight of hor Moves and be
given the ability to take their cargo wherever they want
to go around the world. Buck, if you suddenly were
not a radio show host and you were you were
(04:25):
in charge of international shipping, do you think maybe you
would pick a route that didn't involve the Straight of
Horror Moves? If you had been captured, effectively held hostage
in the Straight of Horror Moves for months. Do you
think it might be hard to find a crew that
wants to go back into the Straight of hor Moves?
A lot of discussion about getting the ships out, and
(04:46):
that's important. My question is who's ever going back? That
seems like an awful potential risk to take. If your
ship is making money based on transiting goods, the danger
of being stuck there is pretty substantial. And there was
a huge write up about Lloyd's of London and how
much we remember when I talked about the insurance premiums
(05:08):
and we had all the insurance agents calling in and
everything else. I still think this is going to be
a massive part of the story because the insurance premiums
have skyrocketed, as you would well imagine at Lloyd's of
London for any of these ships. Are they even getting
right insurance premiums to let ships go back into the
(05:29):
Strait of Horror Moves? Given what we've already seen and done.
I will tell you the word from the White House.
Having just been in DC and talked to some folks
who are very involved on the national security side, they
are not worried at all. They feel very confident that
Trump has got this and it's all going to work out.
(05:49):
I mean that really is that is.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
The word, the vibe, whatever, the party line, all the
rest of it.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
So I did not since.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
They are approaching this with any concern. I think that
their view is, or I should say, their view is
from the White House that Trump is gonna get what
he wants out of this and everyone just needs to
give more time and be patient.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
We'll see.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
I'm not because the second I'm just telling you what
the word from the White House is, the second I
say this, we're gonna get people like.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Do you know what I paid for gas this morning?
I'm like, I will sell gas prices are have come
back down. I think I saw. I know they are
under four dollars where I am because that's what I
paid this past weekend. But I also know that nationwide,
I think the price of gas is back down to
(06:42):
around four twenty one ish for for thirty one something
in that neighborhood average gas prices. Now, which I was
going to get into this at the top of the
third hour, but in addition to doing all my research
on the Strait of Horror, moves. I was looking at
all the data and how things have gone in the
(07:03):
first several years, purely from an economic perspective, because we
got into that real discussion yesterday, which I still think
is a big and significant one about why consumer confidence
is so low and uh, and you can say, okay, well,
there's different things. Gas prices are high. This is not
the worst, not even close to the worst economy we've
(07:25):
ever had in fifty years. So why is there this
sort of national malaise? Yes, there's a certain segment of
the population that hates President Trump. Let's say that's forty
percent of Americans that are just obsessed, that believe that
he is uniquely evil. But and they're not going to
be persuaded that anything is fine. Even if suddenly they
(07:47):
were all multimillionaires, they would still find a reason to
dislike President Trump.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Can I just Trump actually was because I was telling
you what the word from the White House is kind
of off, you know, off stage, if you will. So
I'm with some people in DC and was talking to them.
But here is Trump saying, when I asked about this specifically,
how does he feel about the Iran situation? This is
again on podforst one. This is nine hit it.
Speaker 5 (08:13):
I think we're going to be in very good shape.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
We're in good shape right now. We have the blockade,
which is amazing. Our mayvy is great. We have the
strongest military in the world I built. I built the
military on my first through my first term, and I'm
using it during my second term. I didn't think I'd
be using it this much. But we had a big
success in Venezuela. It was over in one day. We
have a great relationship with the people in Venezuela. The
(08:36):
oil companies are moving in now with us, and that's
been That's been a tremendous success, even from the economic
sampolet of the oil standpoint. But that was essentially much
less than a one day war and a great success.
And we're having a very great success in Iran militarily.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
So you think the blockhead is still be in place
by label.
Speaker 5 (08:54):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
I mean, I think it could be, but I think
it's unlikely. I think it will have it. I think
this will resolve itself fair.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
He's saying it will resolve itself fairly quickly. So there
you go, Uh, take take that as you will.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
President. Seems unbothered by the situation.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
Doesn't seem like there's more urgency from him. It's just
continued negotiations and the blockade is in place. So that
is where that is something else, Clay that came up
here because this I don't think we talked with this
on the show. There was an Axios report that Trump
called net and Yahoo and said you are Trump to
(09:32):
Net Yahoo, you are bleeping crazy. And he was asked
about this, and I want you to hear his response
to being asked directly about it.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Play six.
Speaker 4 (09:47):
You were angry with him, you said, you effing crazy,
what are you effing doing? I helped you stay out
of jail?
Speaker 5 (09:54):
Is that true?
Speaker 4 (09:55):
Did you speak to him in those chides?
Speaker 5 (09:56):
I always say angry.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
I was a little bit perturbed that is constantly fighting
with Lebanon. You know, at some point, as it'd be be,
we're going to step this to stap it. But I
have a very good relationship. We've done well, done well together.
He always says we could never have done it, but
everybody knows that we could have never done it without
the United States. But we've We've I've worked very well together.
(10:19):
I like byb a lot and I've worked very well
with him. We had a you know where I'm a
wartime president, he's a wartime prime minister, very important part
of the world. And I think we've done, you know,
very well. We've we've gotten alone, very well together.
Speaker 2 (10:33):
Yeah, I think he's like, look, we get a little
hot into the collar. But I love the guy. It's
all good. That seems to be the takeaway there. I
think this is funny only in the context of we
have been told by many people on both the right
and the left, because the anti Jewish sentiment has certainly
percolated from the left but also from some elements of
(10:54):
the right, that Trump is completely at the behest of
net Ya who And there's tons of evidence actually, which
is the only logical story here, that net Yahoo actually
has to do what Trump wants to do because America
is the huge international power and Israel is not. So
(11:18):
the whole idea of Trump only is acting at the
behest of net Yahoo has always been crazy, and I
wonder how they calibrate in their minds those people who
have made this argument when Trump is just legitimately cursing
and berating net Yahoo because of some of the choices
net Yah who is making that he doesn't support. You
(11:40):
know what, there's ten million people who live in Israel. Roughly,
there's three hundred and fifty million people here. Our overall
economic might and military might dwarfs Israel's. Anyone who was
arguing that a country that's roughly the size of New
Jersey was going to be dominating the decison vision making
(12:01):
of the United States I always think was crazy. But
these little evidence out here, I give credit for Manda
de Mind getting that story out. I do think that
Israel helped to convince Trump that there could be a
regime change. I think that's true. But the idea that
Israel is dictating to Trump what they can and can't
(12:21):
do is absolutely here's a good word for you.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
We said this. We said this from the very beginning.
No one dictates to Trump anything. Okay, this is reality.
Do I think that the reporting about nn YAHOO pushing
that there could be regime change and that the time
was right for it is probably accurate?
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Yes?
Speaker 1 (12:39):
And did that end up being a good assessment? It
was not a good assessment. But was that his honest assessment?
That's you know, to each his own on the analysis there.
But Trump believed or you know, Trump was like, Okay,
I'll do that.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
I'll do that.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
There wasn't some leverage, There wasn't some special button that
net Yahoo could hit where goes Oh, okay, Trump will
do whatever. That button doesn't exist. And we said that
from the very beginning. Trump is gonna do what Trump
is going to do. And he acted as he thought
was in the best interests of this country as commander
in chief. And he seems very still at peace with
the decision, even though the perhaps delay in some of
(13:17):
this has got some people a little a little bit concerned.
But we'll see, we'll see how it. We're going to look.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
Into this, as Trump says, We're gonna look at this.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
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Speaker 2 (14:30):
Clay and Bucking. Dear wait, welcome back in Clay and Buck.
I know you were optimistic off the top, Buck, but
this has been shared by Roxanne Hodge, who is called
in with us. Yesterday, the official California election results page
says it will take thirty seven days to count the
(14:52):
votes in California. Right now, this is I mean, this
is just utterly ridiculous on all fronts. And in the
meantime I looked I was just telling Buck off Air.
There has been no movement since I woke up this
morning in any tallies coming from California, in both the
(15:18):
mayor's race and also in the in the governor's race.
Basically the counting, at least the tally that I am seeing,
has been effectively frozen for all morning into what is
now the afternoon. I know it's what eleven twenty five
or ten twenty five I guess in California right now,
(15:39):
So I get that there is a that is still
mourning out there, but this is bonkers. And the longer
this goes on, regardless of what your politics are, this
is awful for trust in results in any way. And
if I were Spencer Pratt or I was Steve Hilton,
(15:59):
I mean, these guys are living in a sort of
never ending world of uncertainty as they try to figure
out whether they're advancing into this runoff or not, and
it may end up being very close. Maybe it doesn't
matter as much when there's a ten or fifteen spread
in what the outcome is, but likely for both Steve
(16:21):
Hilton and advancing into the final two, and also for
Spencer Pratt. This is going to be a relatively close
race on both fronts given how many people are running.
I will say, and I think we had a talkback
on this, but Katie Porter, remember her, Buck, she got
five percent of the vote.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Yeah, she's just ready to throw a big vat of
boiling hot potatoes at all the voters of California right now,
not a surprise, very upset at them.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
And that nationwide, by the way, that's a reference if
you forgot what Katie Porter did nation why this could
matter because the overall how else as happened in twenty
twenty two is likely going to come down to what
the results are in California, and we're not going to
know who the head of the House is, like who
(17:10):
which party won the House potentially for a month, as
everybody just kind of sits around and waits on California
to slowly be able to tabulate all these results. It's
just it's unacceptable, and to me it's also symptomatic Buck
of the just utter collapse of California as a desirable
(17:31):
place to live. They can't even count votes. They counted
votes faster. They counted votes faster back in the nineteenth
century than they are managing to do right now. That
would seem to be not fast enough. Yes, and also
a sign of things going in reverse in a very
significant way that we're taking longer to count now than
(17:53):
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Welcome back in here to Clay and Bucks.
Speaker 1 (18:54):
So I had a lot of talk there about the
situation that Donald Trump is handling. It's got a whole
range of things on as plate as the commander in
chief would tend to something else that's going on here though, Clay,
I know you talked about it.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Yes, what would you have? We got a caller who
was calling in to update us on the amount of
time it's going to take to count. She called in
with us the other Day's good, Roxanne Hoge, I believe
you can let us let me know if I'm pronouncing
your last name correctly or not. I saw you just
tweet and I had the team reach out to you.
(19:31):
Thirty seven days is the current tracker of how long
it's going to take for all of these California votes
to be tabulated.
Speaker 6 (19:40):
Oh yes, sir, it's hogue rhymes with rogue. But the
most important thing is that, yes, California for years. This
predates COVID, This predates are all the mail in elections
they normally get. Thirty days. I don't know if they
gave themselves a holiday boost for the fourth of July,
but we are looking at a timeline that we will
(20:01):
not have certified results until July tenth.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
That's insane. That's insane.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
Why can you try to help us understand? Roxanne cool
name by the way, why is that the way?
Speaker 2 (20:16):
Look? How can anyone think that that's okay?
Speaker 6 (20:20):
Well, I think, and I'm getting inside their minds now,
They've always taken a very long time to add in
the mail in ballots, and now that we've gone to
all mail in, so even if people drop off their
ballots on election day at a vote center, they count
as mail in. They give seven days for ballots to arrive.
But even before that, like last night, the first batch
(20:43):
of results we got weren't from the electronic vote machines
in vote centers. One would think that you can tabulate that,
like you could go on Twitter slash x right now,
put up a survey that last twelve hours, and when
the survey closes, you would see the results. I honestly
do not understand why the electronic vote tabulation takes so long.
(21:07):
If you look at the registrar voters in Los Angeles,
which they do a good job, but I don't know
if it's union breaks what it is. They are going
to do updates. It's going to be an update today
that's going to report it at four pm Pacific, and
then we don't get another one till tomorrow at four pm,
and then Friday, like they're keeping bankers hours for something
(21:27):
that's incredibly important.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
This is important too, you said, and I don't remember.
You correct me if I'm wrong. I don't remember in
the nineties or the early two thousands that there was
this issue with California votes being tabulated. And Buck is
in Florida right now. Obviously all of us remember what
happened in Florida in two thousand when it took forever
(21:50):
to decide who won that state and Florida fixed everything.
And now a couple of hours after Florida is done
with the votes, they shut down the the ballots. We
know exactly what the results are. It's instantaneous. When did
California start doing this? And obviously it's intentional. Their idea is, oh,
(22:12):
this is going to allow us to get a higher
voter participation rate. I'm sure is what they're saying. But
this is I think, frankly an excusable and indefensible to
the rest of the country, and I know for many
Californians as well well.
Speaker 6 (22:26):
It's been going on for at least a decade. I
don't know if you guys remember Congresswoman Young Kim was
declared a winner, went to DC, did her freshman orientation
in Congress, and then too bad, so Sad was replaced.
And that was back in twenty eighteen or twenty twenty.
I think it happened, you know, with Rick Caruso in
(22:48):
the La mayoral race. Oh yay, he won, and then
all the other ballots come in and in terms of
them claiming that we've increased turnout, I mean, right now,
you know, La County is looking maybe if we're lucky,
we'll hit twenty five twenty eight percent turnout. But that's
the crazy thing. We don't even know what the denominator
(23:08):
of votes past will be for a full week.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
It's crazy.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
So how are you feeling about, Not forget about the
vote counting part of it, because that's obviously a mess,
But from what we've seen so far, are you optimistic
given the strong initial showing from Steve Hilton and from
Spencer Pratt, what's your sense of it.
Speaker 6 (23:30):
I'm cautiously optimistic. But what I'm really happy about is
that we are now going to have conversations about the
best way to run something. The fact that Karen Bass
couldn't win out right when Democrat politicians here who are
incumbents just skate, They normally just nobody cares. They just skate.
The fact that he has opened up a flank that's
(23:50):
going to be a car like do you like hoop
on the streets? Because that's what you're going to vote for?
And that conversation will take place with great on light
and attention because Spencer is brilliant at getting that. And
then the same thing with Steve Hilton. You cannot be
making the argument as be Sarah is trying to that
California needs fixing and I'm the guy to fix it
(24:14):
when your party broke it.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
No doubt if these results were to hold, Buck was
being the optimistic one for a change off the start
of the show today. How optimistic are you that Steve
Hilton and Spencer Pratt now in one on one runoffs
would be able to reach across and bring in some
traditional Democrat voters. Are you optimistic that would occur, because again,
(24:40):
finally you're down to a head to head. If these
guys can officially get the NOD to advance to the runoff.
Speaker 6 (24:47):
I am one hundred percent optimistic. And I don't just
say that because I'm cheerleader for the party officially. I
have seen with my own eyes Democrats coming out for
Spencer and for for St. There were even Democrats who
donated to the Republican Party of La County to help
spread the word and get out the vote of our
You know, we're only just under fifteen percent of the
(25:10):
electorate in the city of La but they wanted to
make sure that we have a real conversation and that
we can actually have good governance. The people who keep
talking about, you know, experience, well, the experience that we've
seen so far has driven us into the ground. And
I say this as someone from a third world country.
I drive from the airport to my family home in
(25:31):
Kingston on nicer streets than I do from lax to
my home in North Hollywood.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
I'm just wondering, and maybe the answer is much longer.
How long does it take like in Jamaica to count
election blos.
Speaker 6 (25:46):
Much today, pretty much today. To be fair, we'll have
a much better idea in two weeks. I mean, you
know it takes thirty seven days to certify, but really
they're going to jam. You know, two weeks in we'll
really know what we're looking at.
Speaker 2 (25:59):
This is saying thank you for the update. Will you
please keep calling in and updating us as these counts continue,
because I know I speak for a lot of people
out there who voted for Steve Hilton and who voted
for Spencer Pratt and say, I know how this story
is going to end. I've lived through it before. Democrats
keep counting till they get the numbers they need.
Speaker 6 (26:21):
We're a little bit like Lucy with the foot, you know,
Charlie Brown and Lucy but's the football. But I have faith.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
Thank you like your faith.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
Thank you so much for the call. Thanks for the update.
Got such great California listeners, Clay. Can I take us
now to the other side of the country. Yeah, Maine, Maine.
Speaker 2 (26:38):
Where I'm just gonna tell you guys this. I don't
think this has happened yet.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
I have been told by my people, because I know people,
that there's gonna be some platiner stuff coming down today.
I don't think the story has dropped yet, But more
stuff and possibly some very damaging stuff about this, or
I should say alleged, Uh, what's the right word. I
(27:05):
am told it will be very damaging stuff. How about that?
Speaker 2 (27:09):
And potentially knock him out of the race. Damaging stuff
is what you have been told is coming.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
This is what I have been told by people who
know these things. Now, that's not a guarantee, and sometimes
people get this, you know, until you're now it's coming
from the New York Times, I might add, is where
it is expected to drop. So remember this is pro
Democrat media, and you have to wonder, okay, well, what's
their approach going to be with this? But at least
(27:36):
you have here Senator John Fetterman, who some of you
like to remind us, does vote with Democrats like ninety
percent of the time, but he does say things that
annoy Democrats and occasionally he'll vote with Republicans.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
So there's that here.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
He is on the Grand Platner for Senator situation twenty five.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
Hit it.
Speaker 7 (27:57):
What kind of a.
Speaker 8 (27:57):
Creeper has been on a decade on a platform like
kick and send a dozen explicit kinds of messages?
Speaker 2 (28:05):
And who knows what else.
Speaker 5 (28:07):
Would it be better for Democrats if he was not
the candidate.
Speaker 8 (28:09):
Here all I'm saying it's like, you know, when I
was growing up, if someone had a clear Nazi tattoo
on them, you probably could consume or conclude that there's
a Nazi sympathizer. How you know, at some point you're
going to continue to defend that or dismiss that.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
Yeah, that's that's a tough one.
Speaker 1 (28:32):
By the way, the Nazi tattoo thing, I think is
going to be a whole lot more defensible, at least
politically than what I'm hearing is likely to come out
about Platner in the next twenty four hours, if not
in the next few hours.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
Play.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
So what do Democrats do here? I mean, remember Swallwell
just got knocked. Now they had Bisera, So this is
this See what you what you have to keep in
mind is, yes, it was Democrats who took down Swallwell. Well,
it was really who came forward and told their stories,
but Democrat media covered it. But they had a plan
B and Bessera is now either number one or number two.
(29:09):
Well for the time being, I know we can't really say,
but he's clearly a leading contender and a former Obama guy.
So they had a plan B. What's the plan B.
If Platner gets.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
Just Janet Millster, they're going to go right back to
Janet Mills, who is the current governor. That's who Schumer endorsed.
So they thought that Janet Mills had a better chance
of winning than Graham Platner did. And that's why I
think all these stories are coming out right now. They're
trying to ko him before the primary is Tuesday. This
(29:43):
is crazy stuff. And again I think it's swallwell two
point zero. I think there's an element of Joe and
Kamala and the way that whole Biden Kamala switch went down,
because I think they want to knock Graham Platner out
of this race before Tuesday. Remember, and we've talked about
this on the program before. I don't know when it started.
(30:03):
But you don't drop out anymore. You suspend your campaign.
It's like you're just kind of hanging there, like you
you haven't quite said, hey, I'm out. You're waiting to
see if some sort of chaos is gonna drop. And
Janet Mills recently came back out. I don't know if
we have that audio, I know we had it yesterday
and she said, Buck, to answer your question. I think
(30:25):
she's letting it be known. She made a big deal
saying I didn't drop out, I just suspended my campaign.
So she is there and is ready to resume the
campaign if there is the force out of Platner. And
I think the fear that they have, Buck is that
Susan Collins is gonna beat a wounded Platner, and so
(30:46):
they're trying to kao him. The fact that it's coming
from the New York Times. Tommy Larin, Tommy Larin sent
me a message. She said, you know, it's like remember
the horror movie back in the day where that you
you would get like the dun Dun, dun. The phone
call is coming from inside the house. You remember that
horror story back in the day. It's like, you know, babysitters,
(31:09):
that's like the right doesn't that happen in Scream? And
they realize, you know, because I can see you, you know,
with the scary well, he's outside. I'm a scream expert.
He's outside the house. But but the concept is, back
in the day, babysitters downstairs, somebody keeps calling she keeps
hanging up, and then she calls the police and they say,
you need to get out of the house right now.
And she says why and they say, because that call
(31:30):
is coming from upstairs in your house. Uh, this is
the call coming from inside. So they are threatening Graham Platner.
I would imagine, Buck, there's probably phone calls going on
behind the scenes now where if you drop out, maybe
these stories aren't released that are as damning as they
would be if you refuse to should drop out. So
(31:55):
I think this is a mess. I would pay attention
to it. I think it is significant and just FYI.
So I like your call, Buck. If you look at
the prediction markets, Susan Collins is almost favored now to
win that main seat. The money has been pouring in
on her, which suggests to me people think that Platner
(32:18):
is a wounded candidate as we get ready for that
Tuesday primary next week. Also, i'd point out, Buck, the
Platner campaign put out a new poll saying everything is fine,
We're not losing any support at all, and they warn't
up very much, and that's an internal campaign. It just
kind of feels like we got the panic that is
(32:39):
underway we'll dive into all that and more when we
come back. In the meantime, if you are a small
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Speaker 1 (33:55):
Slash learn Hang with you guys right there when you
need them most.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
Just pre sent them on the iHeart AD. Welcome back
in Clay and Buck. We got a lot of talkbacks,
a lot of different reactions rolling in from so many
different perspectives out there. Let's go to some of these
phone calls. Guys have been waiting a bit for a while.
Dawn in Florida, fire Away, Dawn, Hi, guys, Matt respect.
Speaker 9 (34:24):
First of all, I love you guys. First time reached
getting through calling from the Free State of Florida, and
I just wanted to say that you know how Trump
is to stay too big to rig, so I feel
like that's just what they're going to have to really
hope for over there in California.
Speaker 2 (34:39):
Yeah, that's good a lot, Yeah, asking a lot, asking
a lot. Thank you When they're going to continue to
count votes for thirty seven days, I just I get nervous, Mike,
and Indiana's got a good question, Mike fire Away.
Speaker 7 (34:55):
Hey, Hey, gentlemen, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my call. Clay,
I hear you reached to the betting markets almost daily,
and my question is has any study been done about
the predictive nature of those markets? Just how accurate are
they in predicting the winner?
Speaker 2 (35:13):
Well, thank you for the call, and look, I think
they're still in progress. Polymarket and Calshi are the two
big ones that are legal. As the markets get bigger,
they become more reliable. I have not seen an over
ninety percent chance that has been wrong yet. It's over
ninety percent. Now. For anybody out there that thinks probabilistically,
(35:37):
if you get a ninety percent chance of something happening,
there could still be ten percent chance that the other
thing's going to happen, right, So it is like any
other probability. But to answer your question, when they get
to ninety percent, I have found them to be quite reliable.
And I'll give you another example of how I was
using them last night, Buck. I was watching the votes
(35:59):
come in, and then I was constantly going over to
the polymarket site to see what the percentage chances were
of who was going to win the race. They usually
moved faster than the actual vote tallies when people are
putting their real money behind it. There was one upset.
We'll talk about what happened in Iowa, a winner that
(36:21):
was not endorsed by President Trump. What that story is,
and it connects to Russia. Limbaugh, I think you guys
are going to enjoy the clip that we have for
you about the new nominee to be the next governor
of Iowa. We'll talk more about sixty minutes and Buck,
I've got a reason for optimism. Data needed, the need
(36:42):
when we come back final hour Wednesday next
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