April 10, 2026 • 36 mins
Hour 2 of the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show is a data-driven, wide-ranging discussion that blends electoral politics, economic anxiety, demographics, and national security, with a strong emphasis on facts, numbers, and long-term trends. The hour begins with a full-segment interview featuring Ryan Girdusky, host of It’s a Numbers Game and author of The National Populist Substack, who breaks down what polling actually shows about President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. Girdusky explains that while core MAGA support remains high, skepticism and uncertainty have grown among Trump’s broader coalition—especially among white voters without college degrees—largely driven by rising gas prices and inflation fears. He stresses that foreign policy support erodes quickly once voters feel economic pain at home, and that gas prices are one of the most visible and emotionally potent indicators of inflation heading into an election year.
The discussion then turns to how long voter anger over gas prices tends to last and how it could impact the 2026 midterms. Girdusky argues that timing is critical: if high gas prices disrupt summer travel plans, that resentment can linger into the fall, particularly in swing states and battleground Senate races like Alaska and Maine, where fuel costs are among the highest in the country. Clay and Buck debate whether gas-price frustration fades quickly once prices fall, or whether the emotional impact of a “ruined summer” could damage Republicans months later, even if prices normalize by October.
The second half of Hour 2 pivots to what Girdusky describes as a far more serious long-term issue than climate change: collapsing birth rates. Drawing on new CDC data from early 2026, he explains that the U.S. fertility rate is now around 1.57 children per woman—well below the 2.1 replacement level—and that this is part of a global trend affecting nearly every developed country. Particularly striking is his analysis showing sharp, double-digit declines in births among immigrant populations, which he links directly to Trump-era immigration enforcement and self-deportation trends. Girdusky describes fertility as a “lagging indicator” of immigration policy, arguing that fewer births now reflect fewer new arrivals and fewer undocumented immigrants settling long term.
Even more surprising, Girdusky highlights dramatic changes in Black American birth rates, noting that for the first time on record, White women are now having more children per capita than Black women. He details how births among Black women have dropped nearly 10% year over year, driven not by abortion access but by a collapse in teen pregnancy and a surge in college attendance among Black women—both of which delay childbearing and reduce total family size. The hosts discuss how births are increasingly concentrated among women in their 30s, making it mathematically harder to reach replacement-level fertility, and how many Americans are having fewer children than they say they want.
The hour closes with extensive listener interaction around the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets, and national leverage over Iran. Clay responds to strong feedback—both supportive and critical—clarifying his argument that while high gas prices are politically dangerous, America’s status as a global energy superpower has fundamentally changed the strategic pressure compared to the 1980s and 1990s. Calls explore whether Iran “controls” the Strait of Hormuz or has effectively taken it hostage through terror threats, why removing every risk isn’t possible even after major military strikes, and whether long-term solutions like regional pipelines could eventually bypass the strait entirely. Clay and Buck repeatedly emphasize the difference between military control and terrorism risk, arguing that even one missile or drone is enough to scare off tanker traffic regardless of Iran’s weakened navy.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Second hour of Clay and Buck kicks off right now.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Our numbers guy, the data guru of Clay and Buck World,
Ryan Gurdusky, is with us now. It's a Numbers Game
is his podcast, which many of you have been listening
to on the Clay and Buck Network. I know that
because I get to see the numbers special secret Sauce
and Ryan, your podcast is doing phenomenally well because it
turns out people like to know the real data, the facts,
(00:26):
the figures, the what's going on in politics, and you
explain it so very well in you such good analysis
of it. So congratulations on that.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Appreciate it.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
Thank you for giving me this opportunity.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
I really really appreciate it.
Speaker 4 (00:38):
Try really hard to make sure that everybody's as well
informed as I am.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Well, yeah, absolutely, And this is the thing. If you
give Ryan your time, I'm just we're really going to
give him a plug. If you give Ryan your time,
you listen to the Numbers Game, you're gonna know more
than when you started listening. And you're gonna know more
than a lot of people who think they know a
lot about politics, which is this is always I used
to tell Ryan this too, is like what why do
I want to work with Ryan. Why do I have
them all as a guests, because he's one of the
rare guests who calls in or joins, who teaches me
(01:04):
things about politics. You know, a lot of people are
I'm a political consultant. I'm like, well, that guy knows nothing.
Ryan knows a lot. So there's a lot of that.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
As you go out there.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Yeah, so let's we want to talk about this birth
data situation, which you did a piece on recently for
your substack, which is also excellent the National Populist newsletter.
But first, kind of what is the truth about support
for this Iran situation? I'm sure you've been crunching these
numbers too. Some people say all of all of Republicans
(01:33):
are behind Trump. Other people say his numbers are in
the toilet nationally. What's really going on?
Speaker 4 (01:39):
Yeah, the numbers are very bad. I mean for Republicans.
And I said this time and time again, no one
was going to care so long as it didn't affect
them at home, because they just naturally trust Trump. But
the thing is is, now that gas prices have soared,
the numbers have tanked. What you're referencing is how does
MAGA feel and it's a I don't like that question
(02:01):
in polls because there's nothing to identify if you are
a Maga Republican or not aside from you saying so.
So I could look at your voter file and say
you're a man, you're between this ages, you live in
this area, YadA, YadA, yadas, and that will be a quantifier. Say, Okay,
this person is actually telling their details but themselves correctly,
and we could properly wait the poll. You could be
(02:22):
a Maga Republican today and not a Maga Republican tomorrow,
and is rich your opinion ten times over. It basically
says do you or do you not support the president?
And among people who say they are a macro Republican,
it is around ninety percent among most of these polls.
What you want to look for, though, is other indicators
of likely Trump voters and how they feel so among
(02:42):
Republicans and among people who voted for Donald Trump, opposition
or undecided this That's the other thing that I look
for is if you're undecided about your opinion about it.
That has slowly been climbing. It was around twelve to
thirteen percent according to the NPR and Washington Post poll
back in March first, when this cop up begins. By
the time you get to the Fox Pole and other
(03:03):
another poll since then, like the Quinnipiac poll, that number
climbs about twenty six percent. Right among the Trump's most
loyal voting block, which is whites without a college degree
whyes a college degree, support of this war at the
very beginning by double digits in some polls, around fifty
five to fifty six percent according to CNN, the Washington Post,
other ones. They're that support among that demographic, the most
(03:26):
important demographic to the Republican coalition opposition, has climbed to
over fifty five percent in almost every poll now, especially
because of gas prices and inflation, and once again a
lot of there's a lot of anxiety about the economy,
and anytime Trump talks about foreign policy and gives a
lot of emphasis, voters feel that he's not paying enough
attention about the economy, which is what they are concerned about.
Speaker 5 (03:48):
Ryan, it wasn't very long ago that Democrats were saying
Minneapolis is going to be the story for mid terms.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
No one talks.
Speaker 6 (03:58):
About Minneapolis anymore.
Speaker 5 (04:00):
I haven't heard Alex Pretti or Rene Good's name in forever.
I think it was ultimately a sign of just how
quickly our new cycle can move. I don't know when
we're going to get a resolution with Iran. I'm not
sure exactly what it's going to be, but I feel
like it will likely happen in the next couple of months,
presuming that that occurs. If we get to June, July, August,
(04:24):
which is kind of the summer season where people not
tune out, and Trump has managed to turn the conversation
back domestically, do you really think in September, October, November again,
if we get some resolution by Memorial Day, which I
think we will in Iran, do we really think that
we're going to still be talking about the situation in Iran.
(04:45):
I get that it's bad for Trump if it still
is a story, but I just feel like stories come
and go so quickly that the reason they made the
decision to attack on February twenty eighth was because they
knew by the summer they could pivot back to domestic
affairs and whatever we thought were going to be the
big stories for this year, they're just gone and kind
(05:05):
of in the wastepin.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
So as long as gas prices go down, because that
can contingent one. If people want to go on summer vacation,
they want to go to the beach, they want to
go on holidays. Gas being four dollars a gallon is
going to really tamper on their summer plans, make it
a lot harder to go on vacation. Have residual effects
in the economy that will be a negative. Right Also,
the thing about gas prices as a you see a
(05:29):
gas price every four blocks wherever you travel in this country,
it is an indicator of inflation. He really needs gas
prices to go down, whether that be a gas tax holiday,
whether it be more domestic, you know, reducing our petroleum reserves.
Whatever the case may be, gas prices are going to
be really hindering him, as they have every previous president.
(05:50):
Even if you have an electric guitar electric sorry your
guitar electric car. If you have an electric car, you
see gas prices no matter where you go, and you're like, wow,
that's very very high. Right now. That just shows inflation.
And what we saw on the latest jobs and wages
numbers that came out today is that it's because the
inflation jumped with gas prices increasing the wage. The growth
(06:13):
in income is being eaten away at higher inflationary costs
because of gas prices.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
So prices, Ryan, can I I just have to jump
in really quickly than Clay, I think has a real
question for you. But your point of an electric cars
not necessarily true, because when Clay drives by people in
his Tesla and sees the price of gas, he says, haha,
peasants well.
Speaker 6 (06:35):
To be fair.
Speaker 5 (06:36):
As with all things, I cover both ends of the
spectrum here. I have both a Tesla, which I love
and I would encourage everyone to buy, and I'm not
being paid anything for it, although we should be paid. Honestly,
we need to talk to elon this. We should get
paid by Tesla. But and by the way, he's got
plenty of money to be paying us. I also have
an SUV, so I only am covering both ends of
(06:59):
the spectrum. I'm both paying way less and way more
than the average car driver. But going to your point, Ryan,
is there any data on so early voting will start,
you know sometime in October most places, right, and then
lead into is there any data on Let's presume oil
prices are down in October, because I think you're right.
(07:20):
If oil prices are high, it's going to be a negative.
How much backlog on oil prices? Again, I don't know
what's the average about four dollars and ten cents a
gallon or something like that, if I'm not mistaken, And
let's say that they're back down around three dollars ish,
you know, And again every time I say this, people
(07:40):
are like, I pay, Okay, this is a nationwide average
in California, you're getting.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
I love how great an ethyl is the only one
who buys gas.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
In place I pay.
Speaker 5 (07:49):
Every time I mentioned the price of anything, remember when
eggs was a big story, I was like, well, you know, eggs,
somebody's like I.
Speaker 6 (07:56):
Paid this morning.
Speaker 7 (07:57):
You know.
Speaker 5 (07:58):
It's like, okay, it's a nationwide everybody is going to
pay a little bit different, all right.
Speaker 6 (08:02):
So let's say that the average, the average.
Speaker 5 (08:04):
Nationwide can be different in California and New York and
Florida and Texas and Tennessee, where I am average is
three dollars? Will people still be angry about gas prices
in April, May June? In other words, how long does
gas price anger linger? And if it's back down to
around three dollars which I predict it will be in
the fall. You can grab this one and call me
out if I'm wrong on it. Do people still stay
(08:27):
angry about what the price was in April?
Speaker 3 (08:29):
And may.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
I think that if it affects their summer plans, I
think that anger boils over into the fall. He really
has to get it down in a very very short
period of time. The window is very very small. It's
maybe two months. I would say two to two and
a half months is where you want to get down.
If it is still high in the summer and they're saying, guys,
guess what, We're not going on vacations here because we
can't afford gas, which in many places is very high.
(08:53):
That will be absolutely impactful. It also depends on the
places where gas is the highest. One of the highest
places asks right now is Alaska four dollars and sixty
five cents a gallon, according to a triple A. Alaska has
a very very critical US Senate race in it. That
will guarant that will we'll decide, you know, how this
election plays out for the US Senate control of the Senate.
(09:15):
So it depends on where also main is very high
means four dollars and six cents a gallon. It depends
on where, and it depends on how fast you want
to get it down as fast as possible before it
affects people's summer plans and the anger over that and
the anger of an anxiety over the economy. How long
that that, you know, moves forward?
Speaker 1 (09:34):
So Ryan, can we keep you through?
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Because I actually want to want to save this for
the discussion, Uh, save some time for the discussion about
your substack on the CDC data on birth. Fascinating stuff
on who's having babies in this country and what's changing,
and get into immigrants and you know, immigrants who are
coming out of all this stuff. Can can we keep
you through for another segment and play can speak?
Speaker 1 (09:55):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Well, well, Ryan Grodowski, it's a it's a numbers game,
is this podcast. Guys, will stay with us, We'll get
in into some numbers on bert. I'm telling you the
birth data stuff is fascinating, so stay with us. And
Clay wants to talk about one of our beautiful sponsors.
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Speaker 6 (11:36):
Oh, welcome back in all right, Ryan Gardusky with us.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
This is actually a threat to the future of humanity,
not not climate change, which has been the obsession for
the last generation. People are not having babies. Buck has
started to do his part. He and carry them.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
We're working on We're gonna build out the roster.
Speaker 5 (11:57):
Buddy, We're working You got to build out the roster
and help save humanity. I've got three I legitimately, Ryan
tell my boys now that my favorite kid is going
to be the one that has the most gets married
and has the most kids and does the best job
of being a dad because I people sometimes, like my
(12:18):
boys legit roll their eyes at me over this. But
if you look at the numbers, the number of kids
that are being born, babies are a vote for the future.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
I really do believe this.
Speaker 5 (12:27):
It's hard to be pessimistic if you've got a young
baby in your hands and you're thinking about the future
that they are going to one day be a part of.
And it's incredibly important obviously to the furthering of the country.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
What's going on here, Yeah, so.
Speaker 4 (12:41):
Birth rates are down worldwide. It's not just an American phenomenon.
And actually America, for a developed country, is still at
the higher end at one point five seven children per woman.
You measure per woman, not per man, so one point
five to seven children per woman. You need two point
one children per woman to meet replacement levels. What we're
seeing in the new CDC data for February twenty twenty
(13:04):
six is one an indicator that Trump's immigration cracking, and
it's actually highly effective because among immigrant groups that have
more than one thousand children a month, we're seeing double
digital clients. I always say fertility is a lagging indicator
of immigration enforcement. In other words, if you're seven months
pregnant when Trump came in and you're an illegal alien,
you're going to have the kids who gets an American citizenship,
(13:26):
you're not going to flee. As the crackdowns have happened
on legal immigration or illegal immigration, as people have self deported,
that number obviously, as time goes on and there's fewer
pregnant women that've had the baby since Trump became president,
there will be less children being pregnant and being born afterwards.
So among immigrants from China, legal and illegal, the number
(13:46):
is down seventeen point five percent, Colombians ten point five percent,
Ecuadorians twenty two percent, El Salvadorian fifteen percent, Guatamolans sixteen percent,
Haitians sixteen percent, and Mexican's thirteen percent. These are all
the groups that have more than one thousand children per month.
So among that it shows there is clearly an effective
(14:07):
either a self deportation and mass deportation happening, because you're
seeing it now in the birth data as well. The
most interesting thing about fertility data that is coming out,
it's a story that no one really is covering, is
the massive decline among births happening among Black American women.
Twenty twenty four was the very first year that whites
(14:27):
had more children on average per woman than blacks did
in this country. The numbers in twenty twenty five, sorry,
so twenty twenty six rather is this year so far
that number is wildly high.
Speaker 7 (14:39):
It is.
Speaker 4 (14:39):
It's an average of one point five to five for
white women and one point four to four for Black women.
And then drop off of Black women on how many
kids they have is down nearly double digits every single
years of percentage. Right, So in twenty twenty in January
and February twenty twenty five, black women gave birth to
seventy six thousand children in this country. In twenty January
(15:02):
and February twenty twenty six, it was seventy thousand, down
nearly ten percent. The black of a percentage of Black
children being born in this country is usually be frowing
thirteen and a half to fourteen percent. It will be
below twelve percent by next year, by twenty twenty seven,
and could by the end of the decade be as
low as ten percent. That's a dramatic, dramatic drop in
(15:22):
the percentages, and that's really one of the bigger groups
that has led to an overall population everybody. But their
decline is larger than any other group in this country,
and no one's talking about it. Is a true cultural
phenomenon happening right now.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Why is that happening?
Speaker 4 (15:38):
Ryan A great question. A lot of people talk about abortion.
It's not abortion. Abortion was obviously way more easily more
accessible before road being overturned. It's two things. A ninety
percent reduction in team pregnancy. Team pregnancy when I was
growing up in the nineties was not super common, but
it was common. You know, you could see it in
a lot of places. Team pregnancy is declined more than
(15:59):
ninety percent. And actually it was more common for a
woman between fifteen and nineteen to have a child than
a woe between twenty and twenty four to have a
child back in the nineties. It is now far less common.
It almost never happens. The second thing is is the
growth in college applications and women of black women going
to college. Nothing delays pregnancy in child bearing more than
(16:20):
college for women, and the amount of Black women who
go to college is substantially larger than has ever been.
So those are two big culture phenomens. Also, you know,
having a child by accident is rarer and rarer in
this country. You really, we only.
Speaker 6 (16:34):
Have one minute left, Ryan.
Speaker 5 (16:36):
The data that I saw was women in their thirties
are having almost all the babies now relative to past.
Have we oversold from a data perspective, women on abandoning
having kids when they're in their twenties. And also you
mentioned teenagers, And it's just a math equation, right, once
you get to your thirties, it's harder to get to
two point one.
Speaker 4 (16:56):
Yeah, absolutely, yeah, you have fewer children and you have
them and have them later on the life. Absolutely.
Speaker 3 (17:02):
You know.
Speaker 4 (17:03):
Megan McCain's a friend of mine. S always says women
need to take their fertility as well as serious as
they take their job. And that's that is a you know,
that's the truth. You're not rarely are you a celebrity
who has the first kid at forty five years old.
If you want to have children, you should plan for
that early and try to have it as early as
you possibly can in order to make sure you have
as many as you want. The number that they want,
(17:23):
none of they're having, is very different. People want more
than they're actually having.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Ryan, one last quick thing, what are you hitting on
the podcast next? What's the next episode going to be?
Speaker 4 (17:30):
Well, I'm doing the whole episode. This just came out
is about this number and the number on from Monday
show is by Maria Salazar, her long record of advocating
for illegal aliens and her so called Dignity Act that
she has been pushing.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Oh, you're going to take a two by four to
the Dignity Act. That's going to be great listening this weekend.
Everybody go check that one out, Ryan Gardusky, It's a
numbers game. Listen to it. Ryan. Thanks so much.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
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Travis and Buck Sexton, welcome back in to Clay and Buck.
(18:58):
My friend looking into our VIP email. It is reminiscent
for our dear friend Clay, of the opening of the
Dickens classic Tale of Two Cities. It was the best
of times, it was the worst of times. We have
very different feelings about some of your analysis on the
(19:21):
Strait of Hormuz, and let's dive into some of this
for a second. First off, we have hold on where
did it go?
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Here we go?
Speaker 2 (19:32):
VIP email from willis am I the only one that
understands that Clay is arguing that the Strait being shut
down does not hurt Americans like it did in the
eighties because the US is energy independent. Clay isn't saying
that the Strait being closed is good. He is merely
pointing out the shifts in the balance of power over time.
(19:53):
This is a mechanism that historians use to try to
understand the past. Clay, Hey, Willis is essentially saying you
are the tally rand of the sec.
Speaker 5 (20:06):
Very positive comment, I'm sure, is immediately accompanied, as is
often the case, by someone who is calling me a
moron simultaneously, which also happens.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
And I believe you have that, And this then brings
us to the worst of times. VIP email from Robert Clay.
You are talking out of a place that rhymes with grass.
The three percent of the country who drill, refine, invest,
and retail in the oil gas industry are happy. The
other ninety seven percent of the country are ticked off
(20:37):
at four dollars gallon gas and higher overall prices that
come from higher gas prices in the supply chain. The
GOP is toasted this fall. If this price lingers into
the early Midsummer, because the negative narrative will be baked in.
I don't think you disagree with well, certainly not the
guy who says you're a genius, But in this guy,
(20:58):
you're saying you would agree that if the price of
gas stayed high to the midterms, we're in deep, deep trouble.
You're just saying you don't think it'll last that long.
You think some people are benefiting from the high prices,
and we can sustain this better than people had thought
because of America. America is the world's true energy superpower.
We don't say this enough.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
We just think.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
I like, we're the best at you know, we're the
best at making cool stuff. And I don't think what
we're the best at sports. I'm reading handsome radio hosts.
But we're also the best at energy. I think that
a lot of people.
Speaker 5 (21:36):
Again, there's a difference between recognizing a reality and saying
that it is a good thing. And I think sometimes
when you recognize reality, people take it as saying, oh,
this means that you're hugely in favor of it. What
I am saying is the political calculus on this is
such that I don't believe the pressure on Trump is
(21:56):
the same that it would have been when we were
having to overwhelmingly the oil and gas that we consumed
in the eighties and the nineties compared to now, much
of the dollar of increased oil and gas stays in
our country, and even is coming from external locations, And
so much of life is just an analysis of, especially
(22:21):
when it comes to negotiation, who can withstand the pressure longer?
Speaker 6 (22:26):
Who can withstand the.
Speaker 5 (22:27):
Pressure of a strait of horror moves that is restricting
the ingress and egress of oil and gas Iran or
the United States, And almost every single person in the
media right now to a man and woman is telling you, oh,
Iran both controls, which is not accurate. They're just threatening
(22:50):
terrorism controls the straight and the US is in a
difficult position. Trump understands negotiation. I think he has more
leverage in terms of time then a lot of people
are recognizing, Yes, it is the case in October. If
we're playing four point fifty a gallon for gas, Republicans
are in trouble. But if the gas prices come back
(23:10):
down in the fall, as they typically do, and that's
a question I was asking Ryan. By September, in October,
it's back around three dollars a gallon, I don't think
consumer anger is going to necessarily carry forward through the summer,
if that makes sense. That's kind of my argument, and
I haven't heard a lot of people make It doesn't
mean that I'm right, but I do think I'm right
(23:32):
about the larger external realities of oil and gas prices
actually being very different now than it would have been
in the eighties or nineties.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
And I know this.
Speaker 5 (23:43):
There's a lot of people in Texas right now that
are very happy with one hundred dollars a barrel. And
we took a bunch of those calls. And I appreciate
all those callers that seventy dollars seventy five dollars to
them might be the most ideal price, but again, it
costs a lot of money to get oil and gas out,
and when it's fifty dollars bil, a lot of them
are saying, hey, it's basically impossible to make money for
(24:05):
many people at fifty dollars a barrel. We need it
to be sixty five seventy dollars a barrel. So just FYI,
I think it seems very seems very reasonable.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
I still think it's not a good harbinger of things
to come that the Strait isn't open and Trump threatened
basically civilizational annihilation to get it open. But we shall see,
we shall see how it goes. And honestly, it was
just fun also to have all the people work in
the oil industry listen to our show calling in.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
You know what I'm saying. It felt like an episode
of Landman. Here all of a sudden, they're.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
Like, well, buck, when you get out deep in the
patch and you're up to your elbows in that black gold.
Then none of them actually sounded like that, but That's
what it sounds like in my head.
Speaker 5 (24:45):
This is the same question. Thank you, and I think
it speaks well to what you said. Which is one
of the great things about doing this program is we
can basically say, it doesn't matter what the expertise that
we need is. We can specifically say, whether it's like, hey,
how do you fix ah, how does special ops handle
a helicopter that get shot? A bunch of guys call
(25:06):
in and they're like, well, this is the back you know,
get shot down, This is what our plan would be,
this is how we're going to do it. Or we
can say, hey, oil and Gas, how do we handle this?
And this is the number one question I would say
that we keep getting and I'm going to keep going
to it because I understand people are listening at different
times of the day. We've addressed this several different times,
(25:26):
but the fact that it keeps coming up, I think
means that there's a lot of discussion about it. Mike
and Jacksonville fire away with your question.
Speaker 8 (25:34):
Hey, guys, appreciate the time, so we we basically, from
what they're telling us, devastated the entire country in what
six weeks?
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Yep.
Speaker 8 (25:46):
But I'm struggling with is we can't take the straight
of hor moose.
Speaker 6 (25:51):
I don't.
Speaker 8 (25:52):
I'm just struggling with that.
Speaker 5 (25:53):
Well, you know, it's it's a common question that we're
getting and we'll keep answering. Thank you for the call
and thank you for listening. Doesn't I'll start it, you
can finish it, Buck. The easiest way to think about
this is it's not a naval aircraft or a airplane
a jet that is taking out oil and gas tankers.
It can be a tiny little drone or one guy
(26:17):
with a missile on his shoulder, and so think of
it as the equivalent to the question you're asking is
why does terrorism still exist? Well, terrorism still exists because
the cost of terrorism is relatively low and the number
of people involved typically is also very low. So if
you load up a car with a bomb and you
(26:38):
drive it into or you just drive a car through
a crowd, it's very hard to stop small terror attacks
that can have significant consequences. What I would say here
is you need to think about what Iran is threatening
as a terror attack, not a military operation. Does that
sum it up well in your mind?
Speaker 1 (26:55):
Buck?
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Tali rand of the SEC nails it again, or perhaps
the Metternich. I'm trying to think the clouds of it's
the sun sou for those of you Eastern, yeah, were
oriented that that would all be. I would think you
should put Hannibal by the way, and that people don't
think of Hannibal as the because he didn't write about
his strategy. But if you're just thinking about military genius,
you would have to have Tali Rand is more of
(27:19):
almost a foreign relations like a foreign secretary kind of
a guy.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
But no, what you're saying is true.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
It reminds me of the ira back in the early
eighties when they put out that message to Thatcher when
they had a bombing that didn't get her. They said,
today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to
be lucky once. You have to be lucky always. That's
pretty much the case with an oil tanker in the
Strait of Horn Moves. If Iran did decide that, you
(27:46):
know what, screw it, We're just gonna blow up a
tanker to make a point here, it would be an
enormous disaster.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Okay, an enormous disaster.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
It's not that they control the rate so much as
they have taken the straight hostage.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
Yes, that's a difference.
Speaker 4 (28:05):
That's good.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
That's good, it's very very well said. I think, thank you.
Speaker 5 (28:08):
But I think that that is a complicating factor. And
it's also why I think the media when they use
the word control, I think they confuse people because it
makes people think, oh, Iran is just you know, if
we eliminate their military, how do they control it? To
Bucks point, that's a good way of putting it. They've
taken the straight hostage and they basically said, hey, we
got a gun and we're waving it around in the
(28:30):
air and we might just decide to shoot a random person.
Would you decide to go then? And then again we've
talked about the economic realities. If you have one hundred
million dollar boat, are you risking one hundred million dollar
boat on whether a crazy person is going to decide
to blow it up or not? I'm not And I
think that's why you've seen a lot of hesitance and
(28:52):
a lot of boat captains not very interested to work
their way through the strait. Because I think Buck's right,
they've taken it hostage. I hope that explains it.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
Yeah, so who else we got on the lines of
the clay You can see.
Speaker 5 (29:07):
Harold and Tennessee has got a really good question. Harold
fire Away with your question will answer it.
Speaker 9 (29:14):
It's time to be on more pipelines across Saudi Arabia
to the Rigs Sea, connect all the emirates, all the
old exporters, and then when that's done, cut just close
the straits of Horror moves and forget, forget Iran. Don't
let them, don't let them sell any all. They can't
(29:34):
support terrorism.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
Thank you for the call.
Speaker 6 (29:37):
This is good old Tennessee common sense. He's right to
the extent.
Speaker 5 (29:42):
And and look again, there are many of you out
there that know infinitely more about oil and gas than
Buck and I do. But there is a pipeline. The
challenge with building pipelines is it's very expensive and it
takes years to get ready to be able to do.
But I do think that that's a long range solution
for a short term problem. If Iran were to continue
(30:06):
to have these terror threats and holding the straight of
Horror Moves hostage, at some point in time they just say, Okay,
we're going to cut out Iran's ability to control the
Straight of Horror moves and we're going to have pipelines
instead of oil tankers, and we're going to be shipping
as much oil and gas that way as we can.
(30:26):
I think that is the you know, but that the
problem is, and again many of you have built pipelines
that are listening to us right now. That's a long
range process and even if you do it efficiently, we're
talking about that coming online years into the future. And
then the challenge with pipelines is they're still subject to
the danger of terror attacks. One of the things that
(30:48):
Iran has done is try to hit the biggest Saudi
Arabian pipeline, to my understanding here, recently we know what
happened buck with the the pipeline that was blown up
by Ukraine that was supposed to connect to Russia and Europe,
the nord Stream pipeline. They blew it up. So the
(31:11):
danger on pipelines is instead of having I don't know,
a thousand ships which are harder to shut down a
thousand ships, one pipeline getting blown up and the next
thing you know, you don't have the ability to have
that pipeline work at all. But I think it's a
super smart question that he's pointing to, which is at
some point you start to recognize the economic realities require
(31:32):
you to change the way you've done business because you're
negotiating with terrorists.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Yes, all various dudes, all very good, and I certainly
hope that Clay is correct and that everything all works
out we live happily ever after. Unfortunately, some of us
sit here and what do you call a Debbie Downer.
Some of us are stuck in Debbie Downerville and think
that the Iranians are crazy and they're going to do
wild stuff, meaning they'll do a lot of suffering and
(32:00):
they'll play all kinds of games with us, because this
is how they are now. I say Iranian's I mean
the regime obviously, not like the rank and file running people.
I'm sitting here and I'm running out of any kind
of hydration, which is usually a problem, except you know
I'm gonna do.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
I'm gonna go downstairs.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
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from my friends at Chalk, because that is their chad mode.
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Speaker 4 (33:30):
Clay and Buck.
Speaker 5 (33:32):
Dear Wave, Welcome back in play Travis buck Sexton show.
Let's see a lot of different reactions pouring in, uh,
straight up horror moves. Primary topic of discussion Brad in Colorado.
What you got for us?
Speaker 7 (33:51):
Hey, guys, So I've been listening and I've got a
couple of comments the oil and gas guys from you know,
around the country. Super glad to hear from them. I
was in the Island gas here in Colorado for ten years,
and they make their money. I can assure you what
you know, there's things of horror moose the way I
see this right now, we are we're trying to get
(34:11):
rid of forty seven years of filth and badness from
that country. I joined the rooms of a young man
partly because of the attacks on Bay Route, you know,
and then nonsense has gone on over the years. But
people aren't going to stomach high gas prices for very long.
It's we'll take it, we understand, because what we're going through,
(34:34):
and you know what we have gone through for decades,
but you know it's not going to be a long
term thing. I don't believe. Secondly, we'll get past it.
We produce more oil and gas in this country than
any other country in the world, and I don't believe
it's gonna I mean, I mean, back up the straits
of horror, Moose and what's going on right there. And
you know some of that movement and non movement, it's political.
(34:56):
Everything we do in oil and gas is political. Colorado
doesn't have island gas industry because of the politics here.
It's been destroyed completely. And that's why Pennsylvania and Texas
and North Dakota are the primary places. So again, I
think this is the political thing. It's a short term,
it's a it's a it's a negotiating point. All of
it is. Trump is a master negotiator. You know, I'm
(35:18):
not in the Trump camp hundred percent, but the guys
doing a hell of a lot better than what we've
seen over the last forty years in this country. That much,
it's more sure.
Speaker 5 (35:26):
Thank you for the call, Scott in Kentucky, way and
inn Scott, what you got for us.
Speaker 3 (35:31):
Keep up the good work. Hey, it seems like we're
missing a really big picture here. When Trump announced the seasfire,
he said, the seafire is contingent upon the Strait of
Horror moves opening up, meaning Ron opened up the strait
of horror moves. Okay, so here we are two or
three days later, the strait's not open, So what about
(35:53):
the seafire?
Speaker 5 (35:53):
Then, I think you're raising a thank you for the call.
This is a very good question. Buck also raised it.
At some point, Trump is going to get frustrated and
he's gonna bomb them again, And so the question is
now Iran, probably because Trump also said they're way better
negotiators than they are fighters, which is a pretty pretty
(36:14):
fun pretty funny analysis, but I think it's probably true Iran, Buck.
I guarantee you in Pakistan will say the strait's open, there's.
Speaker 6 (36:23):
Just not anybody trying to come through it.
Speaker 5 (36:25):
And then other people are gonna say, like us would
point out, well, that's because they're afraid you're going to
blow up their ships, you know, so they can hold
the hostage. I think you said, well, they can hold
the straight hostage, and the fear, even if the strait
is technically open, can be the reason that the ships
are not coming through. So again, this is going to
(36:48):
be a major point of discussion over the weekend, and
it wouldn't shock me if Trump feels like he has
to drop some more bombs
Second hour of Clay and Buck kicks off right now.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Our numbers guy, the data guru of Clay and Buck World,
Ryan Gurdusky, is with us now. It's a Numbers Game
is his podcast, which many of you have been listening
to on the Clay and Buck Network. I know that
because I get to see the numbers special secret Sauce
and Ryan, your podcast is doing phenomenally well because it
turns out people like to know the real data, the facts,
(00:26):
the figures, the what's going on in politics, and you
explain it so very well in you such good analysis
of it. So congratulations on that.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Appreciate it.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
Thank you for giving me this opportunity.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
I really really appreciate it.
Speaker 4 (00:38):
Try really hard to make sure that everybody's as well
informed as I am.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Well, yeah, absolutely, And this is the thing. If you
give Ryan your time, I'm just we're really going to
give him a plug. If you give Ryan your time,
you listen to the Numbers Game, you're gonna know more
than when you started listening. And you're gonna know more
than a lot of people who think they know a
lot about politics, which is this is always I used
to tell Ryan this too, is like what why do
I want to work with Ryan. Why do I have
them all as a guests, because he's one of the
rare guests who calls in or joins, who teaches me
(01:04):
things about politics. You know, a lot of people are
I'm a political consultant. I'm like, well, that guy knows nothing.
Ryan knows a lot. So there's a lot of that.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
As you go out there.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Yeah, so let's we want to talk about this birth
data situation, which you did a piece on recently for
your substack, which is also excellent the National Populist newsletter.
But first, kind of what is the truth about support
for this Iran situation? I'm sure you've been crunching these
numbers too. Some people say all of all of Republicans
(01:33):
are behind Trump. Other people say his numbers are in
the toilet nationally. What's really going on?
Speaker 4 (01:39):
Yeah, the numbers are very bad. I mean for Republicans.
And I said this time and time again, no one
was going to care so long as it didn't affect
them at home, because they just naturally trust Trump. But
the thing is is, now that gas prices have soared,
the numbers have tanked. What you're referencing is how does
MAGA feel and it's a I don't like that question
(02:01):
in polls because there's nothing to identify if you are
a Maga Republican or not aside from you saying so.
So I could look at your voter file and say
you're a man, you're between this ages, you live in
this area, YadA, YadA, yadas, and that will be a quantifier. Say, Okay,
this person is actually telling their details but themselves correctly,
and we could properly wait the poll. You could be
(02:22):
a Maga Republican today and not a Maga Republican tomorrow,
and is rich your opinion ten times over. It basically
says do you or do you not support the president?
And among people who say they are a macro Republican,
it is around ninety percent among most of these polls.
What you want to look for, though, is other indicators
of likely Trump voters and how they feel so among
(02:42):
Republicans and among people who voted for Donald Trump, opposition
or undecided this That's the other thing that I look
for is if you're undecided about your opinion about it.
That has slowly been climbing. It was around twelve to
thirteen percent according to the NPR and Washington Post poll
back in March first, when this cop up begins. By
the time you get to the Fox Pole and other
(03:03):
another poll since then, like the Quinnipiac poll, that number
climbs about twenty six percent. Right among the Trump's most
loyal voting block, which is whites without a college degree
whyes a college degree, support of this war at the
very beginning by double digits in some polls, around fifty
five to fifty six percent according to CNN, the Washington Post,
other ones. They're that support among that demographic, the most
(03:26):
important demographic to the Republican coalition opposition, has climbed to
over fifty five percent in almost every poll now, especially
because of gas prices and inflation, and once again a
lot of there's a lot of anxiety about the economy,
and anytime Trump talks about foreign policy and gives a
lot of emphasis, voters feel that he's not paying enough
attention about the economy, which is what they are concerned about.
Speaker 5 (03:48):
Ryan, it wasn't very long ago that Democrats were saying
Minneapolis is going to be the story for mid terms.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
No one talks.
Speaker 6 (03:58):
About Minneapolis anymore.
Speaker 5 (04:00):
I haven't heard Alex Pretti or Rene Good's name in forever.
I think it was ultimately a sign of just how
quickly our new cycle can move. I don't know when
we're going to get a resolution with Iran. I'm not
sure exactly what it's going to be, but I feel
like it will likely happen in the next couple of months,
presuming that that occurs. If we get to June, July, August,
(04:24):
which is kind of the summer season where people not
tune out, and Trump has managed to turn the conversation
back domestically, do you really think in September, October, November again,
if we get some resolution by Memorial Day, which I
think we will in Iran, do we really think that
we're going to still be talking about the situation in Iran.
(04:45):
I get that it's bad for Trump if it still
is a story, but I just feel like stories come
and go so quickly that the reason they made the
decision to attack on February twenty eighth was because they
knew by the summer they could pivot back to domestic
affairs and whatever we thought were going to be the
big stories for this year, they're just gone and kind
(05:05):
of in the wastepin.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
So as long as gas prices go down, because that
can contingent one. If people want to go on summer vacation,
they want to go to the beach, they want to
go on holidays. Gas being four dollars a gallon is
going to really tamper on their summer plans, make it
a lot harder to go on vacation. Have residual effects
in the economy that will be a negative. Right Also,
the thing about gas prices as a you see a
(05:29):
gas price every four blocks wherever you travel in this country,
it is an indicator of inflation. He really needs gas
prices to go down, whether that be a gas tax holiday,
whether it be more domestic, you know, reducing our petroleum reserves.
Whatever the case may be, gas prices are going to
be really hindering him, as they have every previous president.
(05:50):
Even if you have an electric guitar electric sorry your
guitar electric car. If you have an electric car, you
see gas prices no matter where you go, and you're like, wow,
that's very very high. Right now. That just shows inflation.
And what we saw on the latest jobs and wages
numbers that came out today is that it's because the
inflation jumped with gas prices increasing the wage. The growth
(06:13):
in income is being eaten away at higher inflationary costs
because of gas prices.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
So prices, Ryan, can I I just have to jump
in really quickly than Clay, I think has a real
question for you. But your point of an electric cars
not necessarily true, because when Clay drives by people in
his Tesla and sees the price of gas, he says, haha,
peasants well.
Speaker 6 (06:35):
To be fair.
Speaker 5 (06:36):
As with all things, I cover both ends of the
spectrum here. I have both a Tesla, which I love
and I would encourage everyone to buy, and I'm not
being paid anything for it, although we should be paid. Honestly,
we need to talk to elon this. We should get
paid by Tesla. But and by the way, he's got
plenty of money to be paying us. I also have
an SUV, so I only am covering both ends of
(06:59):
the spectrum. I'm both paying way less and way more
than the average car driver. But going to your point, Ryan,
is there any data on so early voting will start,
you know sometime in October most places, right, and then
lead into is there any data on Let's presume oil
prices are down in October, because I think you're right.
(07:20):
If oil prices are high, it's going to be a negative.
How much backlog on oil prices? Again, I don't know
what's the average about four dollars and ten cents a
gallon or something like that, if I'm not mistaken, And
let's say that they're back down around three dollars ish,
you know, And again every time I say this, people
(07:40):
are like, I pay, Okay, this is a nationwide average
in California, you're getting.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
I love how great an ethyl is the only one
who buys gas.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
In place I pay.
Speaker 5 (07:49):
Every time I mentioned the price of anything, remember when
eggs was a big story, I was like, well, you know, eggs,
somebody's like I.
Speaker 6 (07:56):
Paid this morning.
Speaker 7 (07:57):
You know.
Speaker 5 (07:58):
It's like, okay, it's a nationwide everybody is going to
pay a little bit different, all right.
Speaker 6 (08:02):
So let's say that the average, the average.
Speaker 5 (08:04):
Nationwide can be different in California and New York and
Florida and Texas and Tennessee, where I am average is
three dollars? Will people still be angry about gas prices
in April, May June? In other words, how long does
gas price anger linger? And if it's back down to
around three dollars which I predict it will be in
the fall. You can grab this one and call me
out if I'm wrong on it. Do people still stay
(08:27):
angry about what the price was in April?
Speaker 3 (08:29):
And may.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
I think that if it affects their summer plans, I
think that anger boils over into the fall. He really
has to get it down in a very very short
period of time. The window is very very small. It's
maybe two months. I would say two to two and
a half months is where you want to get down.
If it is still high in the summer and they're saying, guys,
guess what, We're not going on vacations here because we
can't afford gas, which in many places is very high.
(08:53):
That will be absolutely impactful. It also depends on the
places where gas is the highest. One of the highest
places asks right now is Alaska four dollars and sixty
five cents a gallon, according to a triple A. Alaska has
a very very critical US Senate race in it. That
will guarant that will we'll decide, you know, how this
election plays out for the US Senate control of the Senate.
(09:15):
So it depends on where also main is very high
means four dollars and six cents a gallon. It depends
on where, and it depends on how fast you want
to get it down as fast as possible before it
affects people's summer plans and the anger over that and
the anger of an anxiety over the economy. How long
that that, you know, moves forward?
Speaker 1 (09:34):
So Ryan, can we keep you through?
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Because I actually want to want to save this for
the discussion, Uh, save some time for the discussion about
your substack on the CDC data on birth. Fascinating stuff
on who's having babies in this country and what's changing,
and get into immigrants and you know, immigrants who are
coming out of all this stuff. Can can we keep
you through for another segment and play can speak?
Speaker 1 (09:55):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Well, well, Ryan Grodowski, it's a it's a numbers game,
is this podcast. Guys, will stay with us, We'll get
in into some numbers on bert. I'm telling you the
birth data stuff is fascinating, so stay with us. And
Clay wants to talk about one of our beautiful sponsors.
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Speaker 4 (11:26):
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Speaker 5 (11:31):
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Speaker 6 (11:36):
Oh, welcome back in all right, Ryan Gardusky with us.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
This is actually a threat to the future of humanity,
not not climate change, which has been the obsession for
the last generation. People are not having babies. Buck has
started to do his part. He and carry them.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
We're working on We're gonna build out the roster.
Speaker 5 (11:57):
Buddy, We're working You got to build out the roster
and help save humanity. I've got three I legitimately, Ryan
tell my boys now that my favorite kid is going
to be the one that has the most gets married
and has the most kids and does the best job
of being a dad because I people sometimes, like my
(12:18):
boys legit roll their eyes at me over this. But
if you look at the numbers, the number of kids
that are being born, babies are a vote for the future.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
I really do believe this.
Speaker 5 (12:27):
It's hard to be pessimistic if you've got a young
baby in your hands and you're thinking about the future
that they are going to one day be a part of.
And it's incredibly important obviously to the furthering of the country.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
What's going on here, Yeah, so.
Speaker 4 (12:41):
Birth rates are down worldwide. It's not just an American phenomenon.
And actually America, for a developed country, is still at
the higher end at one point five seven children per woman.
You measure per woman, not per man, so one point
five to seven children per woman. You need two point
one children per woman to meet replacement levels. What we're
seeing in the new CDC data for February twenty twenty
(13:04):
six is one an indicator that Trump's immigration cracking, and
it's actually highly effective because among immigrant groups that have
more than one thousand children a month, we're seeing double
digital clients. I always say fertility is a lagging indicator
of immigration enforcement. In other words, if you're seven months
pregnant when Trump came in and you're an illegal alien,
you're going to have the kids who gets an American citizenship,
(13:26):
you're not going to flee. As the crackdowns have happened
on legal immigration or illegal immigration, as people have self deported,
that number obviously, as time goes on and there's fewer
pregnant women that've had the baby since Trump became president,
there will be less children being pregnant and being born afterwards.
So among immigrants from China, legal and illegal, the number
(13:46):
is down seventeen point five percent, Colombians ten point five percent,
Ecuadorians twenty two percent, El Salvadorian fifteen percent, Guatamolans sixteen percent,
Haitians sixteen percent, and Mexican's thirteen percent. These are all
the groups that have more than one thousand children per month.
So among that it shows there is clearly an effective
(14:07):
either a self deportation and mass deportation happening, because you're
seeing it now in the birth data as well. The
most interesting thing about fertility data that is coming out,
it's a story that no one really is covering, is
the massive decline among births happening among Black American women.
Twenty twenty four was the very first year that whites
(14:27):
had more children on average per woman than blacks did
in this country. The numbers in twenty twenty five, sorry,
so twenty twenty six rather is this year so far
that number is wildly high.
Speaker 7 (14:39):
It is.
Speaker 4 (14:39):
It's an average of one point five to five for
white women and one point four to four for Black women.
And then drop off of Black women on how many
kids they have is down nearly double digits every single
years of percentage. Right, So in twenty twenty in January
and February twenty twenty five, black women gave birth to
seventy six thousand children in this country. In twenty January
(15:02):
and February twenty twenty six, it was seventy thousand, down
nearly ten percent. The black of a percentage of Black
children being born in this country is usually be frowing
thirteen and a half to fourteen percent. It will be
below twelve percent by next year, by twenty twenty seven,
and could by the end of the decade be as
low as ten percent. That's a dramatic, dramatic drop in
(15:22):
the percentages, and that's really one of the bigger groups
that has led to an overall population everybody. But their
decline is larger than any other group in this country,
and no one's talking about it. Is a true cultural
phenomenon happening right now.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Why is that happening?
Speaker 4 (15:38):
Ryan A great question. A lot of people talk about abortion.
It's not abortion. Abortion was obviously way more easily more
accessible before road being overturned. It's two things. A ninety
percent reduction in team pregnancy. Team pregnancy when I was
growing up in the nineties was not super common, but
it was common. You know, you could see it in
a lot of places. Team pregnancy is declined more than
(15:59):
ninety percent. And actually it was more common for a
woman between fifteen and nineteen to have a child than
a woe between twenty and twenty four to have a
child back in the nineties. It is now far less common.
It almost never happens. The second thing is is the
growth in college applications and women of black women going
to college. Nothing delays pregnancy in child bearing more than
(16:20):
college for women, and the amount of Black women who
go to college is substantially larger than has ever been.
So those are two big culture phenomens. Also, you know,
having a child by accident is rarer and rarer in
this country. You really, we only.
Speaker 6 (16:34):
Have one minute left, Ryan.
Speaker 5 (16:36):
The data that I saw was women in their thirties
are having almost all the babies now relative to past.
Have we oversold from a data perspective, women on abandoning
having kids when they're in their twenties. And also you
mentioned teenagers, And it's just a math equation, right, once
you get to your thirties, it's harder to get to
two point one.
Speaker 4 (16:56):
Yeah, absolutely, yeah, you have fewer children and you have
them and have them later on the life. Absolutely.
Speaker 3 (17:02):
You know.
Speaker 4 (17:03):
Megan McCain's a friend of mine. S always says women
need to take their fertility as well as serious as
they take their job. And that's that is a you know,
that's the truth. You're not rarely are you a celebrity
who has the first kid at forty five years old.
If you want to have children, you should plan for
that early and try to have it as early as
you possibly can in order to make sure you have
as many as you want. The number that they want,
(17:23):
none of they're having, is very different. People want more
than they're actually having.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Ryan, one last quick thing, what are you hitting on
the podcast next? What's the next episode going to be?
Speaker 4 (17:30):
Well, I'm doing the whole episode. This just came out
is about this number and the number on from Monday
show is by Maria Salazar, her long record of advocating
for illegal aliens and her so called Dignity Act that
she has been pushing.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Oh, you're going to take a two by four to
the Dignity Act. That's going to be great listening this weekend.
Everybody go check that one out, Ryan Gardusky, It's a
numbers game. Listen to it. Ryan. Thanks so much.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
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Travis and Buck Sexton, welcome back in to Clay and Buck.
(18:58):
My friend looking into our VIP email. It is reminiscent
for our dear friend Clay, of the opening of the
Dickens classic Tale of Two Cities. It was the best
of times, it was the worst of times. We have
very different feelings about some of your analysis on the
(19:21):
Strait of Hormuz, and let's dive into some of this
for a second. First off, we have hold on where
did it go?
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Here we go?
Speaker 2 (19:32):
VIP email from willis am I the only one that
understands that Clay is arguing that the Strait being shut
down does not hurt Americans like it did in the
eighties because the US is energy independent. Clay isn't saying
that the Strait being closed is good. He is merely
pointing out the shifts in the balance of power over time.
(19:53):
This is a mechanism that historians use to try to
understand the past. Clay, Hey, Willis is essentially saying you
are the tally rand of the sec.
Speaker 5 (20:06):
Very positive comment, I'm sure, is immediately accompanied, as is
often the case, by someone who is calling me a
moron simultaneously, which also happens.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
And I believe you have that, And this then brings
us to the worst of times. VIP email from Robert Clay.
You are talking out of a place that rhymes with grass.
The three percent of the country who drill, refine, invest,
and retail in the oil gas industry are happy. The
other ninety seven percent of the country are ticked off
(20:37):
at four dollars gallon gas and higher overall prices that
come from higher gas prices in the supply chain. The
GOP is toasted this fall. If this price lingers into
the early Midsummer, because the negative narrative will be baked in.
I don't think you disagree with well, certainly not the
guy who says you're a genius, But in this guy,
(20:58):
you're saying you would agree that if the price of
gas stayed high to the midterms, we're in deep, deep trouble.
You're just saying you don't think it'll last that long.
You think some people are benefiting from the high prices,
and we can sustain this better than people had thought
because of America. America is the world's true energy superpower.
We don't say this enough.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
We just think.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
I like, we're the best at you know, we're the
best at making cool stuff. And I don't think what
we're the best at sports. I'm reading handsome radio hosts.
But we're also the best at energy. I think that
a lot of people.
Speaker 5 (21:36):
Again, there's a difference between recognizing a reality and saying
that it is a good thing. And I think sometimes
when you recognize reality, people take it as saying, oh,
this means that you're hugely in favor of it. What
I am saying is the political calculus on this is
such that I don't believe the pressure on Trump is
(21:56):
the same that it would have been when we were
having to overwhelmingly the oil and gas that we consumed
in the eighties and the nineties compared to now, much
of the dollar of increased oil and gas stays in
our country, and even is coming from external locations, And
so much of life is just an analysis of, especially
(22:21):
when it comes to negotiation, who can withstand the pressure longer?
Speaker 6 (22:26):
Who can withstand the.
Speaker 5 (22:27):
Pressure of a strait of horror moves that is restricting
the ingress and egress of oil and gas Iran or
the United States, And almost every single person in the
media right now to a man and woman is telling you, oh,
Iran both controls, which is not accurate. They're just threatening
(22:50):
terrorism controls the straight and the US is in a
difficult position. Trump understands negotiation. I think he has more
leverage in terms of time then a lot of people
are recognizing, Yes, it is the case in October. If
we're playing four point fifty a gallon for gas, Republicans
are in trouble. But if the gas prices come back
(23:10):
down in the fall, as they typically do, and that's
a question I was asking Ryan. By September, in October,
it's back around three dollars a gallon, I don't think
consumer anger is going to necessarily carry forward through the summer,
if that makes sense. That's kind of my argument, and
I haven't heard a lot of people make It doesn't
mean that I'm right, but I do think I'm right
(23:32):
about the larger external realities of oil and gas prices
actually being very different now than it would have been
in the eighties or nineties.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
And I know this.
Speaker 5 (23:43):
There's a lot of people in Texas right now that
are very happy with one hundred dollars a barrel. And
we took a bunch of those calls. And I appreciate
all those callers that seventy dollars seventy five dollars to
them might be the most ideal price, but again, it
costs a lot of money to get oil and gas out,
and when it's fifty dollars bil, a lot of them
are saying, hey, it's basically impossible to make money for
(24:05):
many people at fifty dollars a barrel. We need it
to be sixty five seventy dollars a barrel. So just FYI,
I think it seems very seems very reasonable.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
I still think it's not a good harbinger of things
to come that the Strait isn't open and Trump threatened
basically civilizational annihilation to get it open. But we shall see,
we shall see how it goes. And honestly, it was
just fun also to have all the people work in
the oil industry listen to our show calling in.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
You know what I'm saying. It felt like an episode
of Landman. Here all of a sudden, they're.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
Like, well, buck, when you get out deep in the
patch and you're up to your elbows in that black gold.
Then none of them actually sounded like that, but That's
what it sounds like in my head.
Speaker 5 (24:45):
This is the same question. Thank you, and I think
it speaks well to what you said. Which is one
of the great things about doing this program is we
can basically say, it doesn't matter what the expertise that
we need is. We can specifically say, whether it's like, hey,
how do you fix ah, how does special ops handle
a helicopter that get shot? A bunch of guys call
(25:06):
in and they're like, well, this is the back you know,
get shot down, This is what our plan would be,
this is how we're going to do it. Or we
can say, hey, oil and Gas, how do we handle this?
And this is the number one question I would say
that we keep getting and I'm going to keep going
to it because I understand people are listening at different
times of the day. We've addressed this several different times,
(25:26):
but the fact that it keeps coming up, I think
means that there's a lot of discussion about it. Mike
and Jacksonville fire away with your question.
Speaker 8 (25:34):
Hey, guys, appreciate the time, so we we basically, from
what they're telling us, devastated the entire country in what
six weeks?
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Yep.
Speaker 8 (25:46):
But I'm struggling with is we can't take the straight
of hor moose.
Speaker 6 (25:51):
I don't.
Speaker 8 (25:52):
I'm just struggling with that.
Speaker 5 (25:53):
Well, you know, it's it's a common question that we're
getting and we'll keep answering. Thank you for the call
and thank you for listening. Doesn't I'll start it, you
can finish it, Buck. The easiest way to think about
this is it's not a naval aircraft or a airplane
a jet that is taking out oil and gas tankers.
It can be a tiny little drone or one guy
(26:17):
with a missile on his shoulder, and so think of
it as the equivalent to the question you're asking is
why does terrorism still exist? Well, terrorism still exists because
the cost of terrorism is relatively low and the number
of people involved typically is also very low. So if
you load up a car with a bomb and you
(26:38):
drive it into or you just drive a car through
a crowd, it's very hard to stop small terror attacks
that can have significant consequences. What I would say here
is you need to think about what Iran is threatening
as a terror attack, not a military operation. Does that
sum it up well in your mind?
Speaker 1 (26:55):
Buck?
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Tali rand of the SEC nails it again, or perhaps
the Metternich. I'm trying to think the clouds of it's
the sun sou for those of you Eastern, yeah, were
oriented that that would all be. I would think you
should put Hannibal by the way, and that people don't
think of Hannibal as the because he didn't write about
his strategy. But if you're just thinking about military genius,
you would have to have Tali Rand is more of
(27:19):
almost a foreign relations like a foreign secretary kind of
a guy.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
But no, what you're saying is true.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
It reminds me of the ira back in the early
eighties when they put out that message to Thatcher when
they had a bombing that didn't get her. They said,
today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to
be lucky once. You have to be lucky always. That's
pretty much the case with an oil tanker in the
Strait of Horn Moves. If Iran did decide that, you
(27:46):
know what, screw it, We're just gonna blow up a
tanker to make a point here, it would be an
enormous disaster.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Okay, an enormous disaster.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
It's not that they control the rate so much as
they have taken the straight hostage.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
Yes, that's a difference.
Speaker 4 (28:05):
That's good.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
That's good, it's very very well said. I think, thank you.
Speaker 5 (28:08):
But I think that that is a complicating factor. And
it's also why I think the media when they use
the word control, I think they confuse people because it
makes people think, oh, Iran is just you know, if
we eliminate their military, how do they control it? To
Bucks point, that's a good way of putting it. They've
taken the straight hostage and they basically said, hey, we
got a gun and we're waving it around in the
(28:30):
air and we might just decide to shoot a random person.
Would you decide to go then? And then again we've
talked about the economic realities. If you have one hundred
million dollar boat, are you risking one hundred million dollar
boat on whether a crazy person is going to decide
to blow it up or not? I'm not And I
think that's why you've seen a lot of hesitance and
(28:52):
a lot of boat captains not very interested to work
their way through the strait. Because I think Buck's right,
they've taken it hostage. I hope that explains it.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
Yeah, so who else we got on the lines of
the clay You can see.
Speaker 5 (29:07):
Harold and Tennessee has got a really good question. Harold
fire Away with your question will answer it.
Speaker 9 (29:14):
It's time to be on more pipelines across Saudi Arabia
to the Rigs Sea, connect all the emirates, all the
old exporters, and then when that's done, cut just close
the straits of Horror moves and forget, forget Iran. Don't
let them, don't let them sell any all. They can't
(29:34):
support terrorism.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
Thank you for the call.
Speaker 6 (29:37):
This is good old Tennessee common sense. He's right to
the extent.
Speaker 5 (29:42):
And and look again, there are many of you out
there that know infinitely more about oil and gas than
Buck and I do. But there is a pipeline. The
challenge with building pipelines is it's very expensive and it
takes years to get ready to be able to do.
But I do think that that's a long range solution
for a short term problem. If Iran were to continue
(30:06):
to have these terror threats and holding the straight of
Horror Moves hostage, at some point in time they just say, Okay,
we're going to cut out Iran's ability to control the
Straight of Horror moves and we're going to have pipelines
instead of oil tankers, and we're going to be shipping
as much oil and gas that way as we can.
(30:26):
I think that is the you know, but that the
problem is, and again many of you have built pipelines
that are listening to us right now. That's a long
range process and even if you do it efficiently, we're
talking about that coming online years into the future. And
then the challenge with pipelines is they're still subject to
the danger of terror attacks. One of the things that
(30:48):
Iran has done is try to hit the biggest Saudi
Arabian pipeline, to my understanding here, recently we know what
happened buck with the the pipeline that was blown up
by Ukraine that was supposed to connect to Russia and Europe,
the nord Stream pipeline. They blew it up. So the
(31:11):
danger on pipelines is instead of having I don't know,
a thousand ships which are harder to shut down a
thousand ships, one pipeline getting blown up and the next
thing you know, you don't have the ability to have
that pipeline work at all. But I think it's a
super smart question that he's pointing to, which is at
some point you start to recognize the economic realities require
(31:32):
you to change the way you've done business because you're
negotiating with terrorists.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Yes, all various dudes, all very good, and I certainly
hope that Clay is correct and that everything all works
out we live happily ever after. Unfortunately, some of us
sit here and what do you call a Debbie Downer.
Some of us are stuck in Debbie Downerville and think
that the Iranians are crazy and they're going to do
wild stuff, meaning they'll do a lot of suffering and
(32:00):
they'll play all kinds of games with us, because this
is how they are now. I say Iranian's I mean
the regime obviously, not like the rank and file running people.
I'm sitting here and I'm running out of any kind
of hydration, which is usually a problem, except you know
I'm gonna do.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
I'm gonna go downstairs.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
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from my friends at Chalk, because that is their chad mode.
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pre workout from our friends at Chalk. But Chalk has
all kinds of fantastic supplements. They make really top quality stuff.
(32:37):
I take Chalk supplements every day, and I'm a big
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(32:58):
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Speaker 5 (33:26):
If you truly care, pass along this comment sense to
family and friends.
Speaker 4 (33:30):
Clay and Buck.
Speaker 5 (33:32):
Dear Wave, Welcome back in play Travis buck Sexton show.
Let's see a lot of different reactions pouring in, uh,
straight up horror moves. Primary topic of discussion Brad in Colorado.
What you got for us?
Speaker 7 (33:51):
Hey, guys, So I've been listening and I've got a
couple of comments the oil and gas guys from you know,
around the country. Super glad to hear from them. I
was in the Island gas here in Colorado for ten years,
and they make their money. I can assure you what
you know, there's things of horror moose the way I
see this right now, we are we're trying to get
(34:11):
rid of forty seven years of filth and badness from
that country. I joined the rooms of a young man
partly because of the attacks on Bay Route, you know,
and then nonsense has gone on over the years. But
people aren't going to stomach high gas prices for very long.
It's we'll take it, we understand, because what we're going through,
(34:34):
and you know what we have gone through for decades,
but you know it's not going to be a long
term thing. I don't believe. Secondly, we'll get past it.
We produce more oil and gas in this country than
any other country in the world, and I don't believe
it's gonna I mean, I mean, back up the straits
of horror, Moose and what's going on right there. And
you know some of that movement and non movement, it's political.
(34:56):
Everything we do in oil and gas is political. Colorado
doesn't have island gas industry because of the politics here.
It's been destroyed completely. And that's why Pennsylvania and Texas
and North Dakota are the primary places. So again, I
think this is the political thing. It's a short term,
it's a it's a it's a negotiating point. All of
it is. Trump is a master negotiator. You know, I'm
(35:18):
not in the Trump camp hundred percent, but the guys
doing a hell of a lot better than what we've
seen over the last forty years in this country. That much,
it's more sure.
Speaker 5 (35:26):
Thank you for the call, Scott in Kentucky, way and
inn Scott, what you got for us.
Speaker 3 (35:31):
Keep up the good work. Hey, it seems like we're
missing a really big picture here. When Trump announced the seasfire,
he said, the seafire is contingent upon the Strait of
Horror moves opening up, meaning Ron opened up the strait
of horror moves. Okay, so here we are two or
three days later, the strait's not open, So what about
(35:53):
the seafire?
Speaker 5 (35:53):
Then, I think you're raising a thank you for the call.
This is a very good question. Buck also raised it.
At some point, Trump is going to get frustrated and
he's gonna bomb them again, And so the question is
now Iran, probably because Trump also said they're way better
negotiators than they are fighters, which is a pretty pretty
(36:14):
fun pretty funny analysis, but I think it's probably true Iran, Buck.
I guarantee you in Pakistan will say the strait's open, there's.
Speaker 6 (36:23):
Just not anybody trying to come through it.
Speaker 5 (36:25):
And then other people are gonna say, like us would
point out, well, that's because they're afraid you're going to
blow up their ships, you know, so they can hold
the hostage. I think you said, well, they can hold
the straight hostage, and the fear, even if the strait
is technically open, can be the reason that the ships
are not coming through. So again, this is going to
(36:48):
be a major point of discussion over the weekend, and
it wouldn't shock me if Trump feels like he has
to drop some more bombs
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