August 13, 2026 • 36 mins
Hour 2 of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show focuses heavily on the future direction of the Democratic Party, the rise of progressive and democratic socialist candidates, and the political consequences of left-wing policies at both the local and national levels. The hosts examine New York City politics through the lens of Zohran Mamdani, discussing his policy proposals on housing and rent affordability, the economic realities facing New York renters, and criticism surrounding property taxes and housing supply. They also explore Mamdani’s political standing, including polling challenges and his relationship with Jewish voters, while debating what his candidacy represents for the broader progressive movement. A major portion of the hour is devoted to the Democratic Party’s internal struggle between establishment figures and its increasingly influential progressive wing. Through a discussion featuring Democratic strategist Doug Schoen, Clay and Buck analyze whether candidates aligned with democratic socialism could become dominant within the party and consider the prospects of figures such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) in a future presidential race. The conversation also evaluates the political positioning of Kamala Harris, demographic voting blocs within Democratic primaries, and the strategic challenges facing party leaders ahead of the 2028 election cycle. The program also examines other progressive figures, including Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, and discusses controversies connected to social media activity and identity politics. The hosts use these examples to illustrate what they see as a broader trend of Democratic Socialists gaining influence within Democratic politics and shaping debates over policy, messaging, and electability. Clay and Buck welcome Doug Schoen to the program. He's a longtime Democratic strategist, pollster, and political analyst who has advised President Bill Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, and numerous political leaders around the world. Beyond electoral politics, Hour 2 delves into cultural issues that continue to influence voter attitudes. Topics include the WNBA, the marketing of women’s sports, and the ongoing debate over transgender athletes competing in women’s sports. Listener calls contribute additional perspectives, allowing the hosts to discuss how these cultural debates intersect with political identity and party strategy. The conversation also touches on broader social issues and how both parties approach contentious topics that resonate with voters nationwide. Throughout the hour, Clay and Buck connect these discussions to larger national political trends under President Donald Trump, emphasizing polling, voter coalitions, and future presidential politics. The hosts argue that there is often a gap between progressive political promises and real-world outcomes, using examples from housing, economics, and cultural issues to assess the direction of American politics. Key states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Texas are discussed as important indicators of future electoral battles and Democratic Party strategy heading into the next presidential cycle.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome second hour. Clay and Buck doing a lot of
things today, having chats with all of you all across
this country appreciated. And Zoran Mamdani he's having his moment,
although maybe coming to an end in some ways because
reality has started to catch up with mister Mahmadani. And
(00:22):
then you have this whole progressive left wing surge of Democrats.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
I don't like it.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
They're socialists.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Is there a progressive Democrat who isn't a socialists? So
why don't we just say socialists? Oh, because we're supposed
to be democratic socialist. Well, Clay, as I've explained to everybody,
the original socialists who were actually Bolsheviks were democratic socialist too,
at least for a while, so that doesn't even separate
them from the most hardcore of socialists.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Really. I think it's.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Interesting, Clay, that the loss of Francesca Hong is I
think being met with a quiet, deep breath from a
lot of Democrats who did not want to have to
prop her up in a difficult governor's of battle. They
(01:10):
think they have a better shot now with Crowley, the
guy who beat her out, who's more of an establishment guy,
Democrat establishment guy. We'll talk about Elsayed as well at
Elsaiad's sisters tweet has come up as something that we'll discuss.
But Zora and Mamdani, I'm pretty sure if we were
to go Matt Clay, I'm pretty sure we could pull
I said this, You probably said it too. I think
(01:33):
we just looked at each other and we're saying the
same thing. Which is this guy's main promise. His main
promise to New Yorkers was I will lower your rent.
That's his big thing. I'm going to lower your rent.
The problem with that is everything that he is doing will,
in one way or another, raise overall rents. Some people
(01:56):
may benefit from it, but overall rents are going to
go up way. El Street Journal has this piece here,
Mom Donnie's honeymoon with New York is over. New York
City mayor faces messy rollout of pied a terre tax
and fraying relations with local politicians. Clay he posted nine
(02:18):
hundred thousand properties online and as homes that may be
subject to the tax, sent out seventeen thousand notices to
property owners specifically individually saying that they may be subject
to it, some of them, by the way, saying I
live in New York. I've paid New York taxes the
whole time, Like, what are you talking about? This isn't
(02:39):
a piano terere.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
This is my home.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
There's been a lot of that too, so they're not
even correct. They're setting out. Imagine you've got to notice
everyone from some for some new tax that some socialist
moron has rolled out saying, oh, we're gonna start hitting.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
You with this sorry, and it doesn't even apply to you.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
So you're being targeted for something that doesn't even make
sense for what your reality is or what the truth
of your situation is. In Clayton, the now the thing
that's come out, What is the latest on the average?
I know it's here's the headline. New York City rents
are the highest they have ever been and the average
rent in Manhattan is.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
Six thousand, six hundred and fifty five dollars a month.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
I hear that, and I mean when I saw that number.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
And by the way, New York City is now not
number one on highest rents.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
San Francisco is.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
Yeah, but I do think this is really important, Mom,
Donnie ran On, I will solve the rent problem in
New York City and within six months of his tenure,
we're now seeing the highest rents ever.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
And this is what.
Speaker 4 (03:48):
Happens when you freeze rents some places, the unfrozen rents
actually skyrocket. And there's only one way to bring down
rent ultimately that works in a capitalist economy. Do you
know what it is put more rental units on the marketplace.
(04:09):
It's basic supply and demand. Now I don't even know
buck what percentage of people who live in New York
City are paying the rent themselves, because when I hear
six six and fifty five dollars a month for rent
in New York City, my first thought is a lot
of Mom Donnie's most ardent supporters. That's people who are
(04:33):
in their twenties, teenagers. A lot of them are having
their rents paid by their parents. You got a lot
of people that are big Mamdanni supporters in New York
City whose dads and moms are basically funding their Manhattan lifestyle.
And I just think this is indicative of basic rules
(04:55):
of economics do not change no matter what politicians might
be say. And I will say, I was reading that
article about Mamdannie's overall approval rating. It's high in New
York City it's plummeting in New York State, and it's
plummeting with Jewish voters. Mamdanni now finally, I know he
(05:15):
had a meeting with a bunch of rabbis, finally has
an approval rating that is starting to reflect Jewish voters
or looking around in saying, wait.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
A minute, this guy actually hates us.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
Twenty percent approval rating for Jewish voters in New York
City and for everybody out there who says, oh, the
Jews control everything. Jews can't even get somebody who doesn't
hate them elected mayor of New York City, where they
have the largest population per capita anywhere. So I think
that's significant people of Mamdani's mindset. Clay, this may sound
(05:48):
like an exaggeration or of abdul say Ed's sisters mindset.
Apparently we could talk about that this guy who's running
for Senate sed in Michigan. I know his sister's not running,
but hey, you know that's uh uh now out there
in the news. But people of Mamdani's mindset, if there
was another horrific terrorist attack against Israel, or even just
(06:14):
against Jews anywhere in the world by Hamas or Palestinian
sympathizers or whatever. The reaction would be to decry violence
on all sides. Yes that I'm just telling you just
so you know.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
If Hamas smuggled a nuke into Tel Aviv the day
after such a horrible situation, I'm talking about a detonation. Obviously,
people like Mamdani would say we needed to cry violence
on all sides. They may even say, this is what
happens when you oppress a people, as the Palestinians have
(06:47):
been oppressed. That is just reality, everybody. There is nothing
that could be done to Israel or to the Jews
to change the mindset of a Mamdani that it is
in fact not the Jews that the terrible violence has
befallen them. Nothing, no situation. And I think you might
have a small percentage of Jews who support Mom Donnie
(07:09):
who are waking up to that reality just a little bit.
I don't think a lot of them, but some of
them may be figuring out, oh wow, this isn't just
about Rent. He really does hate us.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
One bit of news, by the way, buck that is
breaking right now that also has to do with New
York City and the posting of everybody's address who had
these second homes and the danger that might be impacted
the United Healthcare ceo who was murdered. There are reports
out there that are leading right now at Fox News
(07:45):
and Fox Business that Luigi Manzioni is going to plead
guilty in his federal case to the murder of the
United Healthcare ceo.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
I'm assuming this is just to take the death penalty
off the table. That's the way this goes. He's going
to get like, that's what I would respect. Yeah, he's
not going to get the death penalty. He'll spend life
in prison without possibility or parole.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
There you go, which, by the way, makes me think
I also would maybe hazard a guess that this could
very well end up happening in the Tyler Robinson case
as well. Just to keep in mind, that's the individual
who all the evidence supports killed Charlie Kirk, and I
did see buck as we're mentioning Mangioni. In the defense
(08:30):
filings in the Charlie Kirk assassination, they admit that Charlie
Kirk was killed by a single bullet. So there's been
a lot of conspiracies out there. People have said, oh,
it was a microphone exploding, it was some other method
by which he was killed. We had a caller on
this program, maybe multiple callers, I don't remember exactly who said,
(08:51):
there's no way that that bullet was what killed him.
There's no way that it didn't exit out the back.
All these things. The defense that is trying to do
everything they can to defend Tyler Robinson is now admitting
in court filings, Oh, yeah, he was definitely killed by
a bullet. They're not even contesting the method in which
(09:12):
he was killed. So, for anybody out there that's been
buying into these conspiracy theories, oh, it wasn't really a
bullet from that killed Charlie Kirk. It was an exploding microphone,
or it was all these other different things that have
been floated as conspiracy theories. When the defense team for
the person accused of the crime doesn't even poss out
(09:33):
the possibility of that as an alibi or as some
form of reasonable doubt, it just shows you how outrageous, outlandish,
and unconnected, disconnected from reality that argument actually is just FYI.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Yeah, I'll just say we don't get the things like that,
the big things hugely and completely wrong on this show,
it's nice. You know, people should pay attention when people
get things enormously and maybe even purposefully wrong. I would
just I would want an audience to pay attention to that.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
That's all.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
I just think that's fair to say. I think you
should take note of these things.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
So this is this is by the way, I actually
think this ties in with Mamdani Tubuck. Here is my concern.
Rent has gone up, it's at record highs. If people
are just angry and they're just buying into the vibes,
do results actually matter? And then you actually, if you
(10:42):
want me to be pessimistic, go into we've reached a
post results world where people are so committed to whatever
they believe that the results that politicians achieve do not
actually matter at all. Because people are so committed to
their team that it doesn't matter what the actual tangible
(11:03):
results are. They just care about whether their team is
the one at the top of the standings. And right now,
Mam Donnie is in. He's actually going to make gant
higher and average life worse. He's diagnosed a problem. Things
are too expensive in New York City. The problem is
all of his solutions actually make things worse. But if
(11:27):
people don't make that connection, then Mom Donnie's overall popularity
doesn't change at all, and that I think is actually
one of the scary things about sort of a post
results world. Then the arguments don't even matter, and I
think when we come back, I think this is abdul
Lsied's entire campaign.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
It's vibes.
Speaker 4 (11:49):
I would also argue, I'll share that tweet from his sister.
This is an example of having two different conversations simultaneously.
I guarantee you if you went into Dearborn and you said,
does abdul El sayed in your opinion hate Jewish people?
Almost every Arab voter in Michigan would say yes, does
(12:12):
Abdul El sayed hate Jewish people? Muslim voters, Arab voters
in Michigan would all say yes. So it doesn't even
matter if he goes out publicly and says I actually
love Jewish people, because they understand that he's lying to
the public in their opinion and believe that he actually
shares hate for Jewish people even though he says the
(12:35):
opposite in public.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
Yes, people are learning and learning about Mom Donnie, I
think the hard way.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
But we did warn them.
Speaker 4 (12:45):
Yes, we did play a couple of those cuts for
you when we come back that have started to go
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a loan. Let me dive into this. By the way,
Buck Marco Rubio sitting with our friend Katie Miller on
the podcast She Has. He was asked what his ideal
weekend would and I think he's going to sound a
lot like a lot of the guys, probably some of
(16:03):
the gals out there as well. Listen, you said to
Lar Trump if you had a day off, that you
would watch football all day.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
I answer the question completely wrong.
Speaker 5 (16:11):
Why Well, first of all, the right answer is I
would spend it with my wife going up, Oh yeah, okay,
But the true answer is, and this is why I
messed up that answer, okay, because here's the thing.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
The day would actually start much earlier.
Speaker 6 (16:25):
The greatest show on television today in America is college
Game Dame. Great show starts around ten or eleven, and
that leads you to noon and then the noon game,
and then there's a three thirty game, and then there's
a So I messed and then the idea like this
is a crazy weekend that would never happen.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
So I'm just putting this out there.
Speaker 6 (16:40):
But you could start at ten am on Saturday, you know,
run the whole college football day, sleep for a few hours,
then you wake up, and then you're in the NFL
game day. Then you got the one o'clock game, the
four o'clock game, the NBC game that night. That is
an incredible weekend in my opinion. In my view, obviously,
I don't believe that ever I will ever achieve this,
certainly not in the next two and a half years
(17:01):
or what have you.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
Buck this is a funny answer. A lot of you
out there nodding along.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
I feel fortunate because that's how I spend a lot
of my Saturdays and Sundays. I just want to put
this out there. I've said it before. There's a world
where Marco Rubio is the next commissioner of the NFL,
goes and makes sixty seventy million dollars a year to
be commissioner and says, hey, the rest of you guys
can fight over being president of the United States. I'm
(17:27):
just gonna be a football commissioner, make a lot of money,
and step out of the serious things in the world.
I'm just putting it out there.
Speaker 7 (17:36):
I think that would be a great.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
Move for Marco.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Would not a bad give you the best interest of
the country, But I think that, Yeah, that's a lot
of football to watch, That's all I'm gonna say. It's
a lot of football, all right. When you get bad weather,
the kind of knocks power out. What's one of the
first things to go cell phone service. Cell towers get overloaded,
all that demand, you get the no service, the SOS image,
all that stuff.
Speaker 3 (17:59):
On your iPhone.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
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and Buck you get an extra five percent off for
sixty five percent off total. Doug Shoan joins us now.
He's a long time Democratic strategist and Paulsberg see nice.
Smart Democrats are welcome here. And he's got a new op.
(19:03):
He's got a new op ed out about AOC and
her run for it, possible run for the presidency.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
Doug, good to see it, Good to see you.
Speaker 7 (19:14):
Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Uh, let's talk about it. You wrote about the Wall
Street Journal. We're having this discussion here. Clay likes to
follow the betting markets on this stuff too, and I
will Clay, why don't you tell what is the betting
market saying about AOC right now?
Speaker 4 (19:29):
AOC is now the favorite to be the twenty twenty
eight Democrat presidential nominee. That has shifted. Gavin Newsom was
the favorite for a long time. His odds have plummeted
on polymarket and on cal she and so AOC right
now is the favorite to be the nominee. I don't
know if you knew that, Doug, but thanks for coming on.
Speaker 7 (19:50):
I didn't know.
Speaker 8 (19:51):
I looked it up after my OP ed, and you
know I had two reactions, first that I was prescient
and second that I was powerful and influential in influencing.
Speaker 7 (20:04):
I don't know if either of those is true, but
I will say this. John Zogby, a respective pollster, has
done some modeling and his conclusion is that the strongest
candidate will be a Democratic socialist obviously running on the
Democratic line. So that fits with what the prediction markets
(20:25):
are saying, and what I was trying to argue may
be the case. In my peace talk.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
To us about what you take from some of these
you mentioned the Democratic Socialist contingent here within that party.
There seems to be this I don't know if we
could call it conventional wisdom, but you'll certainly hear in
the commentariat. Oh, but the establishment will put their hand
on the scale. Oh, the establishment will make sure that
(20:52):
they can't. At what point does it seem like the
Democratic Socialist wing of the party is part of the establishment,
even calling some of the shots.
Speaker 7 (21:02):
Well, I guess what I say is politicians and the commentariat,
as you put it, tend to fight the last war.
And I think it's clear to me that in the
past the establishment has tried to keep people like Bernie
Sanders from getting the nomination, particularly in twenty sixteen. But
(21:26):
that being said, I think there's so much anger in
the country and so much suspicion of the establishment that
somebody like AOC if she's able to distinguish herself from
the more extreme versions of the Democratic Socialists, you know,
abolish the Supreme Court, abolish the Senate, abolish the police, etc.
(21:51):
I think she is a very credible candidate. And for
those who say, oh, she doesn't have much experience, remember
Barack Obama, Well, who've been in the Senate for two years.
She's been in the House, I guess eight years now,
and I think the fact that she has a relatively
thin record workstore advantage. So I think she can be
(22:14):
the nominee. And I'm not saying she will, but I
give her a much greater chance to be the nominee
than at least until recently, the conventional wisdom suggested.
Speaker 4 (22:25):
Doug Francesca Hang wasn't able to get across the finish
line in Wisconsin lost by around three thousand votes. I
legitimately believe she would have won if she hadn't done
that interview with CNN Caitlin Collins, or if she had
just answered I no longer want to ban Thanksgiving. Cancel
Thanksgiving when you look at the WNBA and the fact
(22:47):
that Democrats and left wingers in particular can't seem to
figure out a way to just walk away from this
crazy idea of men and women's sports. When you look
at the cancel situation with Thanksgiving, some of these things
that aren't quote unquote huge issues are because they cut through.
(23:08):
If you were advising a Democrat, will anybody be able
to figure out how to handle something like men and
women's sports.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
What should they do or.
Speaker 4 (23:16):
Do you think we're going to see ads in twenty
twenty eight all over again like we did in twenty
four that are very helpful to Republican camp.
Speaker 7 (23:23):
Very good question if they were listening to me, and
most assuredly the party which is moving far left because
of the Democratic Socialists, notwithstanding whether it's establishment or socialists.
But if the party were listening to me, I'd say, look,
we don't believe that anybody should be discriminated again against
(23:46):
based on gender or any sort of preference. But we
don't think that biological males should be competing in women's
sports period. I think most people accept that. I believe it,
and I think most Democrats are a healthy percentage of
Democrats believe that. So I would tell yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:08):
Sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. I didn't mean to cut
you off. I thought that was that was your answer.
I I was gonna JOm in with something a little
by the way, it's a it's a it's a defensible answer. Right,
This is a clay I sit here and talking about this.
The Democrats are going to keep getting bludgeoned with this
question as long as they're unwilling to I mean, you
can't say you don't know. I'll get back to you.
(24:28):
The science isn't settled or whatever. You can't that's not
gonna fly in front of the electorate. So I think
they're gonna have to move to your position, at least publicly,
even if they don't believe it and would do something
different when they get into power. Talking to Doug, show
him by the way, peace in the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
You guys know me. It's a political polster. Analysts been
in the game a long time. Doug.
Speaker 1 (24:45):
I'm gonna I gotta get you on the hot seat
on something here for a second. Sure, our Frank Klay Travis,
our mutual buddy. I'm not gonna say he's a Kamala
booster per se. I'm not gonna say he's a Kamala
super fan. But he is both convinced and I think
on this one, unfortunately he's right because we have bet
that she will run, and.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
He thinks that she is almost a lock for the
Democrat nomination.
Speaker 1 (25:07):
I might be overstating that a little bit, but Clay,
what do you think seventy five percent she's gonna be?
Speaker 4 (25:11):
Do? I want to hear from Doug on this, I
don't think black women are going to leave Kamala, and
the normal Democrat primary electorate is not the normal Democrat voter,
and so I think her base of left wing maybe
not even fair to say left wing, but just black
women is more solid right now than anybody else's base
(25:33):
who's gonna run.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
I'm curious how Doug.
Speaker 1 (25:34):
Would answer to take Doug take us in the numbers
as you see it on Kamala getting all the way
to at least the nomination again, how do you see it?
Speaker 7 (25:43):
Well, I think it's going to be a bit more
challenging for her because she was a really pretty bad
candidate in twenty twenty four. That being said, what I've
seen in some of the polls supporting the argument is
that as Newsom has faded Harris in a couple of
polls has been polling extremely well. I just really wonder
(26:06):
whether she passes the smell test of credibility. And I also,
when I haven't studied fully and you guys may know
better than me, is with the six states that I've
been picked for the first states to hold democratic primaries,
I don't know how the both the African American preference.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Race and.
Speaker 7 (26:34):
Political preference go. So I don't think I know enough
to say she will or she won't be the nominee,
but I would say this, there is an opening for
a progressive candidate. Harris has great liabilities. She does have
a constituency which players right does vote in primaries, which
(26:56):
is black women, older black women in particular. But I
think she has credibility issues, and I think AOC has
got a theoretical broader base than Kamala. Given twenty twenty.
Speaker 4 (27:13):
Four we're talking to, Doug shown by the way, I
think Kamala will win South Carolina, which is going to
be the first primary, and that will help propel her
because obviously there's a huge black vote in South Carolina.
Let me ask you, this lost fairly. Yeah, Hillary lost,
in Kamala lost. They managed to win drag Joe Biden.
(27:34):
Democrats did across the finish line, old white guy. Is
there going to be any attempt, in your mind, Doug,
for the powerbrokers of the Democrat Party to just flat
out say, whether it's AOC, Kamala, Gretchen Whitmer, whoever might
decide to be a prominent female candidate, America is not
going to elect a female Democrat candidate. What we saw
(27:57):
in twenty twenty is we got to find a bland,
white guy to be the head of the ticket, and
whether that's Mark Kelly, Andy Basher. Do you think there's
going to be that kind of strategic calculus going on
with somebody like AOC as a vice president, younger minority
vice president candidate like we saw with Biden Kamala or
(28:21):
do you think twenty twenty is an aberration and that's
not something that Democrats will look toward as they make
their choice in twenty eight.
Speaker 7 (28:29):
I think there are plenty of Democrats privately who take
that position. The problem is, given the nature of the
Democratic primary electorate, which is I think fifty six to
fifty eight percent women obviously of all races, I think
that's a pretty tough position to articulate publicly, which could
(28:51):
create a pretty serious backlash. So while I think the
sentiment will be there, I'm not sure that anybody can
in a systematic way to proceed in that fashion and
get a moderate male nominated.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
Doug, how do you assess the polling out of Texas
right now that says it's a super close race between
tall Ico and Paxton, and even some Poles have tall
Rico ahead of him.
Speaker 7 (29:24):
Yeah, I guess what I would say is that I've
looked at the polls since I guess it was the
March first primary, and they've been very close between tallar
Rico and Paxon or Cornying when he was a candidate.
I think Paxson is a much weaker candidate than Corning
(29:47):
would have been. I do think that it is likely
to be a marginal lean Republican state, largely because of
voter history. Though the real question in my mind is
does the war in Iran continue until election day? I'd
(30:12):
say if I had to guess now, I'd say probably yes.
But given the inflation numbers today and the CPI a
couple of days ago, I think Trump and the Republicans
are getting a break there. So I'd made Packson the
favorite narrowly, and I think he will benefit significantly from
(30:34):
the super PACs spending, which we'll make up for the
lack of fundraising prowess that Packson, seeming late lacks.
Speaker 4 (30:43):
Thirty seconds, I wanted to ask you this since Buck
asked about polling Michigan and Wisconsin Democrat primary polling wildly
out of whack. Is that something that you think is
going to be an issue for midterms in general, or
is that Midwest specific.
Speaker 7 (30:59):
That it is a primary specific issue. And what happened
was abdul l said in Michigan and Francesca hung in
Wisconsin became the only issue. So they were polling about
forty percent each and that's about what they got the
(31:20):
undecided when all against them. I think both had credibility problems,
Hung even greater than El said. But to me, it's
an issue of polling primaries with divisive candidates who have
credibility issues.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Thank you, I'd like to have you on again. This
is fun to have to.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
Get your take and thank you both. Thank you so much.
That's Duck shown. We appreciate him.
Speaker 4 (31:47):
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Speaker 3 (33:34):
Let me get some of.
Speaker 4 (33:35):
Your calls here and then we're gonna dive into abdul Elsa. Yeah,
we've got a couple of guests coming your way in
the third hour two. Let's go to he just vanished,
So let's go to Dave in Iowa.
Speaker 3 (33:46):
Dave, what's up, hey, gentlemen?
Speaker 9 (33:50):
Real quick? On the WNBA siasco for anyone who doesn't
understand what a male and a female is. The court
bridgefield House where the Fever play. The sponsor that one
of the main sponsors is tam Packs on the court
and then my wife pointed out there's like a yoga
pants company that sponsors them, and h nick Ultra, I
(34:13):
mean products that men don't use or consume.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
And what I would, sorry, Dave, to cut you off,
I would point out that they actually Tampacs has done
ads for men that claim that they are women, trying
to sell the idea that trans I don't even know
that men who are pretending to.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
Be women get their periods too. Yes, men get their
periods too.
Speaker 4 (34:37):
Sorry to cut you off, day, but in general, you're
right that they are directly trying to connect with women.
And look, Dave, what I would say in general, I'm
betting if you're from Iowa that you're a Caitlin Clark fan. Ultimately,
what you have here is a league that pretty much
appealed to non mainstream American sports fans. I think that's
(34:58):
fair to say, Like your average WNBA fan was not
also a die hard NFL fan or a diehard Major
League Baseball fan. I think that's fair to say. And
then suddenly Caitlin Clark was the golden goose that showed up.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
In their league.
Speaker 4 (35:12):
Not dissimilar to Venus and Serena Buck. You remember on
the WTA when suddenly way more people were caring about
women's tennis should then had traditionally cared. Tiger is the
perfect example on the PGA Tour, and even I think
you can say Ronda Rousey on the UFC. All of
those leagues found a way to embrace the new talent
that looked different than the old talent and make way
(35:35):
more money for everybody. The WNBA is more of a
political organization than it is a business because they haven't
been willing to do the same amy in Central California.
Speaker 10 (35:46):
What you got, Hi, I don't know if you guys
always under or realize what commercials play during your breaks,
but there's one that's playing on our local station that
I find kind of odd.
Speaker 11 (35:59):
And humorous at the same time. But it's regarding a
new women's baseball league, and they're so excited for this
new women's baseball league, professional women's baseball league, And so
I don't know if you guys know anything about that league.
Are they Are they doing any kind of tests on women.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
It's a great question, Amy, it's a great question. I'll
look it up and see, and you're right. We often
have no idea what There's five hundred and fifty local
markets out there, so a lot of local ads that
run during the program. We certainly welcome everybody who advertises
on the show, but we don't know about the vast
majority of them. I'll look it up and see whether
they have established what the actual rules are or whether
(36:39):
they're going full WNBA and pretending men are women too.
Speaker 3 (36:42):
When we come back, Abdul lsay, I'm the latest
Welcome second hour. Clay and Buck doing a lot of
things today, having chats with all of you all across
this country appreciated. And Zoran Mamdani he's having his moment,
although maybe coming to an end in some ways because
reality has started to catch up with mister Mahmadani. And
(00:22):
then you have this whole progressive left wing surge of Democrats.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
I don't like it.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
They're socialists.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Is there a progressive Democrat who isn't a socialists? So
why don't we just say socialists? Oh, because we're supposed
to be democratic socialist. Well, Clay, as I've explained to everybody,
the original socialists who were actually Bolsheviks were democratic socialist too,
at least for a while, so that doesn't even separate
them from the most hardcore of socialists.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Really. I think it's.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Interesting, Clay, that the loss of Francesca Hong is I
think being met with a quiet, deep breath from a
lot of Democrats who did not want to have to
prop her up in a difficult governor's of battle. They
(01:10):
think they have a better shot now with Crowley, the
guy who beat her out, who's more of an establishment guy,
Democrat establishment guy. We'll talk about Elsayed as well at
Elsaiad's sisters tweet has come up as something that we'll discuss.
But Zora and Mamdani, I'm pretty sure if we were
to go Matt Clay, I'm pretty sure we could pull
I said this, You probably said it too. I think
(01:33):
we just looked at each other and we're saying the
same thing. Which is this guy's main promise. His main
promise to New Yorkers was I will lower your rent.
That's his big thing. I'm going to lower your rent.
The problem with that is everything that he is doing will,
in one way or another, raise overall rents. Some people
(01:56):
may benefit from it, but overall rents are going to
go up way. El Street Journal has this piece here,
Mom Donnie's honeymoon with New York is over. New York
City mayor faces messy rollout of pied a terre tax
and fraying relations with local politicians. Clay he posted nine
(02:18):
hundred thousand properties online and as homes that may be
subject to the tax, sent out seventeen thousand notices to
property owners specifically individually saying that they may be subject
to it, some of them, by the way, saying I
live in New York. I've paid New York taxes the
whole time, Like, what are you talking about? This isn't
(02:39):
a piano terere.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
This is my home.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
There's been a lot of that too, so they're not
even correct. They're setting out. Imagine you've got to notice
everyone from some for some new tax that some socialist
moron has rolled out saying, oh, we're gonna start hitting.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
You with this sorry, and it doesn't even apply to you.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
So you're being targeted for something that doesn't even make
sense for what your reality is or what the truth
of your situation is. In Clayton, the now the thing
that's come out, What is the latest on the average?
I know it's here's the headline. New York City rents
are the highest they have ever been and the average
rent in Manhattan is.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
Six thousand, six hundred and fifty five dollars a month.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
I hear that, and I mean when I saw that number.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
And by the way, New York City is now not
number one on highest rents.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
San Francisco is.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
Yeah, but I do think this is really important, Mom,
Donnie ran On, I will solve the rent problem in
New York City and within six months of his tenure,
we're now seeing the highest rents ever.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
And this is what.
Speaker 4 (03:48):
Happens when you freeze rents some places, the unfrozen rents
actually skyrocket. And there's only one way to bring down
rent ultimately that works in a capitalist economy. Do you
know what it is put more rental units on the marketplace.
(04:09):
It's basic supply and demand. Now I don't even know
buck what percentage of people who live in New York
City are paying the rent themselves, because when I hear
six six and fifty five dollars a month for rent
in New York City, my first thought is a lot
of Mom Donnie's most ardent supporters. That's people who are
(04:33):
in their twenties, teenagers. A lot of them are having
their rents paid by their parents. You got a lot
of people that are big Mamdanni supporters in New York
City whose dads and moms are basically funding their Manhattan lifestyle.
And I just think this is indicative of basic rules
(04:55):
of economics do not change no matter what politicians might
be say. And I will say, I was reading that
article about Mamdannie's overall approval rating. It's high in New
York City it's plummeting in New York State, and it's
plummeting with Jewish voters. Mamdanni now finally, I know he
(05:15):
had a meeting with a bunch of rabbis, finally has
an approval rating that is starting to reflect Jewish voters
or looking around in saying, wait.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
A minute, this guy actually hates us.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
Twenty percent approval rating for Jewish voters in New York
City and for everybody out there who says, oh, the
Jews control everything. Jews can't even get somebody who doesn't
hate them elected mayor of New York City, where they
have the largest population per capita anywhere. So I think
that's significant people of Mamdani's mindset. Clay, this may sound
(05:48):
like an exaggeration or of abdul say Ed's sisters mindset.
Apparently we could talk about that this guy who's running
for Senate sed in Michigan. I know his sister's not running,
but hey, you know that's uh uh now out there
in the news. But people of Mamdani's mindset, if there
was another horrific terrorist attack against Israel, or even just
(06:14):
against Jews anywhere in the world by Hamas or Palestinian
sympathizers or whatever. The reaction would be to decry violence
on all sides. Yes that I'm just telling you just
so you know.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
If Hamas smuggled a nuke into Tel Aviv the day
after such a horrible situation, I'm talking about a detonation. Obviously,
people like Mamdani would say we needed to cry violence
on all sides. They may even say, this is what
happens when you oppress a people, as the Palestinians have
(06:47):
been oppressed. That is just reality, everybody. There is nothing
that could be done to Israel or to the Jews
to change the mindset of a Mamdani that it is
in fact not the Jews that the terrible violence has
befallen them. Nothing, no situation. And I think you might
have a small percentage of Jews who support Mom Donnie
(07:09):
who are waking up to that reality just a little bit.
I don't think a lot of them, but some of
them may be figuring out, oh wow, this isn't just
about Rent. He really does hate us.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
One bit of news, by the way, buck that is
breaking right now that also has to do with New
York City and the posting of everybody's address who had
these second homes and the danger that might be impacted
the United Healthcare ceo who was murdered. There are reports
out there that are leading right now at Fox News
(07:45):
and Fox Business that Luigi Manzioni is going to plead
guilty in his federal case to the murder of the
United Healthcare ceo.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
I'm assuming this is just to take the death penalty
off the table. That's the way this goes. He's going
to get like, that's what I would respect. Yeah, he's
not going to get the death penalty. He'll spend life
in prison without possibility or parole.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
There you go, which, by the way, makes me think
I also would maybe hazard a guess that this could
very well end up happening in the Tyler Robinson case
as well. Just to keep in mind, that's the individual
who all the evidence supports killed Charlie Kirk, and I
did see buck as we're mentioning Mangioni. In the defense
(08:30):
filings in the Charlie Kirk assassination, they admit that Charlie
Kirk was killed by a single bullet. So there's been
a lot of conspiracies out there. People have said, oh,
it was a microphone exploding, it was some other method
by which he was killed. We had a caller on
this program, maybe multiple callers, I don't remember exactly who said,
(08:51):
there's no way that that bullet was what killed him.
There's no way that it didn't exit out the back.
All these things. The defense that is trying to do
everything they can to defend Tyler Robinson is now admitting
in court filings, Oh, yeah, he was definitely killed by
a bullet. They're not even contesting the method in which
(09:12):
he was killed. So, for anybody out there that's been
buying into these conspiracy theories, oh, it wasn't really a
bullet from that killed Charlie Kirk. It was an exploding microphone,
or it was all these other different things that have
been floated as conspiracy theories. When the defense team for
the person accused of the crime doesn't even poss out
(09:33):
the possibility of that as an alibi or as some
form of reasonable doubt, it just shows you how outrageous, outlandish,
and unconnected, disconnected from reality that argument actually is just FYI.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Yeah, I'll just say we don't get the things like that,
the big things hugely and completely wrong on this show,
it's nice. You know, people should pay attention when people
get things enormously and maybe even purposefully wrong. I would
just I would want an audience to pay attention to that.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
That's all.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
I just think that's fair to say. I think you
should take note of these things.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
So this is this is by the way, I actually
think this ties in with Mamdani Tubuck. Here is my concern.
Rent has gone up, it's at record highs. If people
are just angry and they're just buying into the vibes,
do results actually matter? And then you actually, if you
(10:42):
want me to be pessimistic, go into we've reached a
post results world where people are so committed to whatever
they believe that the results that politicians achieve do not
actually matter at all. Because people are so committed to
their team that it doesn't matter what the actual tangible
(11:03):
results are. They just care about whether their team is
the one at the top of the standings. And right now,
Mam Donnie is in. He's actually going to make gant
higher and average life worse. He's diagnosed a problem. Things
are too expensive in New York City. The problem is
all of his solutions actually make things worse. But if
(11:27):
people don't make that connection, then Mom Donnie's overall popularity
doesn't change at all, and that I think is actually
one of the scary things about sort of a post
results world. Then the arguments don't even matter, and I
think when we come back, I think this is abdul
Lsied's entire campaign.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
It's vibes.
Speaker 4 (11:49):
I would also argue, I'll share that tweet from his sister.
This is an example of having two different conversations simultaneously.
I guarantee you if you went into Dearborn and you said,
does abdul El sayed in your opinion hate Jewish people?
Almost every Arab voter in Michigan would say yes, does
(12:12):
Abdul El sayed hate Jewish people? Muslim voters, Arab voters
in Michigan would all say yes. So it doesn't even
matter if he goes out publicly and says I actually
love Jewish people, because they understand that he's lying to
the public in their opinion and believe that he actually
shares hate for Jewish people even though he says the
(12:35):
opposite in public.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
Yes, people are learning and learning about Mom Donnie, I
think the hard way.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
But we did warn them.
Speaker 4 (12:45):
Yes, we did play a couple of those cuts for
you when we come back that have started to go
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a loan. Let me dive into this. By the way,
Buck Marco Rubio sitting with our friend Katie Miller on
the podcast She Has. He was asked what his ideal
weekend would and I think he's going to sound a
lot like a lot of the guys, probably some of
(16:03):
the gals out there as well. Listen, you said to
Lar Trump if you had a day off, that you
would watch football all day.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
I answer the question completely wrong.
Speaker 5 (16:11):
Why Well, first of all, the right answer is I
would spend it with my wife going up, Oh yeah, okay,
But the true answer is, and this is why I
messed up that answer, okay, because here's the thing.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
The day would actually start much earlier.
Speaker 6 (16:25):
The greatest show on television today in America is college
Game Dame. Great show starts around ten or eleven, and
that leads you to noon and then the noon game,
and then there's a three thirty game, and then there's
a So I messed and then the idea like this
is a crazy weekend that would never happen.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
So I'm just putting this out there.
Speaker 6 (16:40):
But you could start at ten am on Saturday, you know,
run the whole college football day, sleep for a few hours,
then you wake up, and then you're in the NFL
game day. Then you got the one o'clock game, the
four o'clock game, the NBC game that night. That is
an incredible weekend in my opinion. In my view, obviously,
I don't believe that ever I will ever achieve this,
certainly not in the next two and a half years
(17:01):
or what have you.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
Buck this is a funny answer. A lot of you
out there nodding along.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
I feel fortunate because that's how I spend a lot
of my Saturdays and Sundays. I just want to put
this out there. I've said it before. There's a world
where Marco Rubio is the next commissioner of the NFL,
goes and makes sixty seventy million dollars a year to
be commissioner and says, hey, the rest of you guys
can fight over being president of the United States. I'm
(17:27):
just gonna be a football commissioner, make a lot of money,
and step out of the serious things in the world.
I'm just putting it out there.
Speaker 7 (17:36):
I think that would be a great.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
Move for Marco.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Would not a bad give you the best interest of
the country, But I think that, Yeah, that's a lot
of football to watch, That's all I'm gonna say. It's
a lot of football, all right. When you get bad weather,
the kind of knocks power out. What's one of the
first things to go cell phone service. Cell towers get overloaded,
all that demand, you get the no service, the SOS image,
all that stuff.
Speaker 3 (17:59):
On your iPhone.
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and Buck you get an extra five percent off for
sixty five percent off total. Doug Shoan joins us now.
He's a long time Democratic strategist and Paulsberg see nice.
Smart Democrats are welcome here. And he's got a new op.
(19:03):
He's got a new op ed out about AOC and
her run for it, possible run for the presidency.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
Doug, good to see it, Good to see you.
Speaker 7 (19:14):
Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Uh, let's talk about it. You wrote about the Wall
Street Journal. We're having this discussion here. Clay likes to
follow the betting markets on this stuff too, and I
will Clay, why don't you tell what is the betting
market saying about AOC right now?
Speaker 4 (19:29):
AOC is now the favorite to be the twenty twenty
eight Democrat presidential nominee. That has shifted. Gavin Newsom was
the favorite for a long time. His odds have plummeted
on polymarket and on cal she and so AOC right
now is the favorite to be the nominee. I don't
know if you knew that, Doug, but thanks for coming on.
Speaker 7 (19:50):
I didn't know.
Speaker 8 (19:51):
I looked it up after my OP ed, and you
know I had two reactions, first that I was prescient
and second that I was powerful and influential in influencing.
Speaker 7 (20:04):
I don't know if either of those is true, but
I will say this. John Zogby, a respective pollster, has
done some modeling and his conclusion is that the strongest
candidate will be a Democratic socialist obviously running on the
Democratic line. So that fits with what the prediction markets
(20:25):
are saying, and what I was trying to argue may
be the case. In my peace talk.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
To us about what you take from some of these
you mentioned the Democratic Socialist contingent here within that party.
There seems to be this I don't know if we
could call it conventional wisdom, but you'll certainly hear in
the commentariat. Oh, but the establishment will put their hand
on the scale. Oh, the establishment will make sure that
(20:52):
they can't. At what point does it seem like the
Democratic Socialist wing of the party is part of the establishment,
even calling some of the shots.
Speaker 7 (21:02):
Well, I guess what I say is politicians and the commentariat,
as you put it, tend to fight the last war.
And I think it's clear to me that in the
past the establishment has tried to keep people like Bernie
Sanders from getting the nomination, particularly in twenty sixteen. But
(21:26):
that being said, I think there's so much anger in
the country and so much suspicion of the establishment that
somebody like AOC if she's able to distinguish herself from
the more extreme versions of the Democratic Socialists, you know,
abolish the Supreme Court, abolish the Senate, abolish the police, etc.
(21:51):
I think she is a very credible candidate. And for
those who say, oh, she doesn't have much experience, remember
Barack Obama, Well, who've been in the Senate for two years.
She's been in the House, I guess eight years now,
and I think the fact that she has a relatively
thin record workstore advantage. So I think she can be
(22:14):
the nominee. And I'm not saying she will, but I
give her a much greater chance to be the nominee
than at least until recently, the conventional wisdom suggested.
Speaker 4 (22:25):
Doug Francesca Hang wasn't able to get across the finish
line in Wisconsin lost by around three thousand votes. I
legitimately believe she would have won if she hadn't done
that interview with CNN Caitlin Collins, or if she had
just answered I no longer want to ban Thanksgiving. Cancel
Thanksgiving when you look at the WNBA and the fact
(22:47):
that Democrats and left wingers in particular can't seem to
figure out a way to just walk away from this
crazy idea of men and women's sports. When you look
at the cancel situation with Thanksgiving, some of these things
that aren't quote unquote huge issues are because they cut through.
(23:08):
If you were advising a Democrat, will anybody be able
to figure out how to handle something like men and
women's sports.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
What should they do or.
Speaker 4 (23:16):
Do you think we're going to see ads in twenty
twenty eight all over again like we did in twenty
four that are very helpful to Republican camp.
Speaker 7 (23:23):
Very good question if they were listening to me, and
most assuredly the party which is moving far left because
of the Democratic Socialists, notwithstanding whether it's establishment or socialists.
But if the party were listening to me, I'd say, look,
we don't believe that anybody should be discriminated again against
(23:46):
based on gender or any sort of preference. But we
don't think that biological males should be competing in women's
sports period. I think most people accept that. I believe it,
and I think most Democrats are a healthy percentage of
Democrats believe that. So I would tell yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:08):
Sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. I didn't mean to cut
you off. I thought that was that was your answer.
I I was gonna JOm in with something a little
by the way, it's a it's a it's a defensible answer. Right,
This is a clay I sit here and talking about this.
The Democrats are going to keep getting bludgeoned with this
question as long as they're unwilling to I mean, you
can't say you don't know. I'll get back to you.
(24:28):
The science isn't settled or whatever. You can't that's not
gonna fly in front of the electorate. So I think
they're gonna have to move to your position, at least publicly,
even if they don't believe it and would do something
different when they get into power. Talking to Doug, show
him by the way, peace in the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
You guys know me. It's a political polster. Analysts been
in the game a long time. Doug.
Speaker 1 (24:45):
I'm gonna I gotta get you on the hot seat
on something here for a second. Sure, our Frank Klay Travis,
our mutual buddy. I'm not gonna say he's a Kamala
booster per se. I'm not gonna say he's a Kamala
super fan. But he is both convinced and I think
on this one, unfortunately he's right because we have bet
that she will run, and.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
He thinks that she is almost a lock for the
Democrat nomination.
Speaker 1 (25:07):
I might be overstating that a little bit, but Clay,
what do you think seventy five percent she's gonna be?
Speaker 4 (25:11):
Do? I want to hear from Doug on this, I
don't think black women are going to leave Kamala, and
the normal Democrat primary electorate is not the normal Democrat voter,
and so I think her base of left wing maybe
not even fair to say left wing, but just black
women is more solid right now than anybody else's base
(25:33):
who's gonna run.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
I'm curious how Doug.
Speaker 1 (25:34):
Would answer to take Doug take us in the numbers
as you see it on Kamala getting all the way
to at least the nomination again, how do you see it?
Speaker 7 (25:43):
Well, I think it's going to be a bit more
challenging for her because she was a really pretty bad
candidate in twenty twenty four. That being said, what I've
seen in some of the polls supporting the argument is
that as Newsom has faded Harris in a couple of
polls has been polling extremely well. I just really wonder
(26:06):
whether she passes the smell test of credibility. And I also,
when I haven't studied fully and you guys may know
better than me, is with the six states that I've
been picked for the first states to hold democratic primaries,
I don't know how the both the African American preference.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Race and.
Speaker 7 (26:34):
Political preference go. So I don't think I know enough
to say she will or she won't be the nominee,
but I would say this, there is an opening for
a progressive candidate. Harris has great liabilities. She does have
a constituency which players right does vote in primaries, which
(26:56):
is black women, older black women in particular. But I
think she has credibility issues, and I think AOC has
got a theoretical broader base than Kamala. Given twenty twenty.
Speaker 4 (27:13):
Four we're talking to, Doug shown by the way, I
think Kamala will win South Carolina, which is going to
be the first primary, and that will help propel her
because obviously there's a huge black vote in South Carolina.
Let me ask you, this lost fairly. Yeah, Hillary lost,
in Kamala lost. They managed to win drag Joe Biden.
(27:34):
Democrats did across the finish line, old white guy. Is
there going to be any attempt, in your mind, Doug,
for the powerbrokers of the Democrat Party to just flat
out say, whether it's AOC, Kamala, Gretchen Whitmer, whoever might
decide to be a prominent female candidate, America is not
going to elect a female Democrat candidate. What we saw
(27:57):
in twenty twenty is we got to find a bland,
white guy to be the head of the ticket, and
whether that's Mark Kelly, Andy Basher. Do you think there's
going to be that kind of strategic calculus going on
with somebody like AOC as a vice president, younger minority
vice president candidate like we saw with Biden Kamala or
(28:21):
do you think twenty twenty is an aberration and that's
not something that Democrats will look toward as they make
their choice in twenty eight.
Speaker 7 (28:29):
I think there are plenty of Democrats privately who take
that position. The problem is, given the nature of the
Democratic primary electorate, which is I think fifty six to
fifty eight percent women obviously of all races, I think
that's a pretty tough position to articulate publicly, which could
(28:51):
create a pretty serious backlash. So while I think the
sentiment will be there, I'm not sure that anybody can
in a systematic way to proceed in that fashion and
get a moderate male nominated.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
Doug, how do you assess the polling out of Texas
right now that says it's a super close race between
tall Ico and Paxton, and even some Poles have tall
Rico ahead of him.
Speaker 7 (29:24):
Yeah, I guess what I would say is that I've
looked at the polls since I guess it was the
March first primary, and they've been very close between tallar
Rico and Paxon or Cornying when he was a candidate.
I think Paxson is a much weaker candidate than Corning
(29:47):
would have been. I do think that it is likely
to be a marginal lean Republican state, largely because of
voter history. Though the real question in my mind is
does the war in Iran continue until election day? I'd
(30:12):
say if I had to guess now, I'd say probably yes.
But given the inflation numbers today and the CPI a
couple of days ago, I think Trump and the Republicans
are getting a break there. So I'd made Packson the
favorite narrowly, and I think he will benefit significantly from
(30:34):
the super PACs spending, which we'll make up for the
lack of fundraising prowess that Packson, seeming late lacks.
Speaker 4 (30:43):
Thirty seconds, I wanted to ask you this since Buck
asked about polling Michigan and Wisconsin Democrat primary polling wildly
out of whack. Is that something that you think is
going to be an issue for midterms in general, or
is that Midwest specific.
Speaker 7 (30:59):
That it is a primary specific issue. And what happened
was abdul l said in Michigan and Francesca hung in
Wisconsin became the only issue. So they were polling about
forty percent each and that's about what they got the
(31:20):
undecided when all against them. I think both had credibility problems,
Hung even greater than El said. But to me, it's
an issue of polling primaries with divisive candidates who have
credibility issues.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Thank you, I'd like to have you on again. This
is fun to have to.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
Get your take and thank you both. Thank you so much.
That's Duck shown. We appreciate him.
Speaker 4 (31:47):
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Speaker 3 (33:34):
Let me get some of.
Speaker 4 (33:35):
Your calls here and then we're gonna dive into abdul Elsa. Yeah,
we've got a couple of guests coming your way in
the third hour two. Let's go to he just vanished,
So let's go to Dave in Iowa.
Speaker 3 (33:46):
Dave, what's up, hey, gentlemen?
Speaker 9 (33:50):
Real quick? On the WNBA siasco for anyone who doesn't
understand what a male and a female is. The court
bridgefield House where the Fever play. The sponsor that one
of the main sponsors is tam Packs on the court
and then my wife pointed out there's like a yoga
pants company that sponsors them, and h nick Ultra, I
(34:13):
mean products that men don't use or consume.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
And what I would, sorry, Dave, to cut you off,
I would point out that they actually Tampacs has done
ads for men that claim that they are women, trying
to sell the idea that trans I don't even know
that men who are pretending to.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
Be women get their periods too. Yes, men get their
periods too.
Speaker 4 (34:37):
Sorry to cut you off, day, but in general, you're
right that they are directly trying to connect with women.
And look, Dave, what I would say in general, I'm
betting if you're from Iowa that you're a Caitlin Clark fan. Ultimately,
what you have here is a league that pretty much
appealed to non mainstream American sports fans. I think that's
(34:58):
fair to say, Like your average WNBA fan was not
also a die hard NFL fan or a diehard Major
League Baseball fan. I think that's fair to say. And
then suddenly Caitlin Clark was the golden goose that showed up.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
In their league.
Speaker 4 (35:12):
Not dissimilar to Venus and Serena Buck. You remember on
the WTA when suddenly way more people were caring about
women's tennis should then had traditionally cared. Tiger is the
perfect example on the PGA Tour, and even I think
you can say Ronda Rousey on the UFC. All of
those leagues found a way to embrace the new talent
that looked different than the old talent and make way
(35:35):
more money for everybody. The WNBA is more of a
political organization than it is a business because they haven't
been willing to do the same amy in Central California.
Speaker 10 (35:46):
What you got, Hi, I don't know if you guys
always under or realize what commercials play during your breaks,
but there's one that's playing on our local station that
I find kind of odd.
Speaker 11 (35:59):
And humorous at the same time. But it's regarding a
new women's baseball league, and they're so excited for this
new women's baseball league, professional women's baseball league, And so
I don't know if you guys know anything about that league.
Are they Are they doing any kind of tests on women.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
It's a great question, Amy, it's a great question. I'll
look it up and see, and you're right. We often
have no idea what There's five hundred and fifty local
markets out there, so a lot of local ads that
run during the program. We certainly welcome everybody who advertises
on the show, but we don't know about the vast
majority of them. I'll look it up and see whether
they have established what the actual rules are or whether
(36:39):
they're going full WNBA and pretending men are women too.
Speaker 3 (36:42):
When we come back, Abdul lsay, I'm the latest
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