September 4, 2026 • 39 mins
Ryan Girdusky has fresh political intel — and the 2028 Republican presidential race may already be heating up.
On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game, Ryan breaks down signs that Sen. Ted Cruz is positioning himself for another run for president, including repeated trips to Iowa, outreach surrounding a potential 2028 campaign, and Cruz’s increasingly public criticism of Vice President JD Vance. Ryan examines Cruz’s potential strategy, his effort to position himself as an alternative to Vance, and why he’s skeptical that Cruz has learned the right lessons from his 2016 presidential campaign.
But first, Ryan shares some fascinating inside information from a private dinner with Democratic political consultants. They discuss internal polling ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, a massive 2024 Democratic ad campaign against Donald Trump that may have actually helped Trump, the changing Jewish vote, and why some Democrats are already preparing for the possibility of Marco Rubio running for president.
Ryan also weighs in on New York City’s move to restrict AI in classrooms, the city’s plans to bring eighth graders to the 9/11 Memorial, new immigration numbers under President Trump, and the latest polling from Iowa and New York. He also looks ahead to Kamala Harris and the 2028 Democratic primary and explains why organized labor could become increasingly important as artificial intelligence transforms the American workforce.
Plus, in Ask Me Anything, Ryan shares deeply personal memories of New York City in the days after September 11, 2001, including his mother’s experience at the World Trade Center and what he remembers about the missing-person posters, uncertainty, fear, and grief that followed the attacks.
Follow Clay & Buck on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuck
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowski. Thank
you guys for being here. I have a good show
for you guys today. I have some juice for you.
So I went to dinner with some very smart Democratic consultants,
friends of mine, who I haven't seen in a bit
of time. And really, we were in an environment where
we were just talking freely. No names because we're going
(00:25):
to keep it, you know, I don't want to burn anybody,
but the conversation was good. Because we were talking about
the midterms. And the funny thing is sometimes Democrats are
surprised that Republicans also read data. So I was asking them,
what do your internal polls look like for the generic ballot? Now,
(00:46):
I have no candidates in the 2026 election. I'm not
consulting anybody. So it's not like I'm doing this for
a client and they feel like it was against their client.
So it's not like that. It was just a general conversation.
And they were like, well, I don't know. And I'm
like somewhere like between six and eight. Right. And they go, yeah,
about that, which is what basically every poll is saying.
(01:07):
D plus six to D plus eight. But I said, yeah, but,
you know, every election except for 2018 and I believe
2022 polls underestimated. Republican turnout by about an average of
three points. And they were like, wow, that's true. That's true.
I'm like, I know it's true. That's why I said it. Like,
I mean, I read data just as often as you do.
(01:29):
But here's where the gossip got good. And they were
talking amongst themselves. I was kind of more eavesdropping during
this part of the conversation. They were talking about an
ad campaign in the 2024 presidential election. This blew my mind.
Democrats spent upwards of $ 100 million, I think that was
actually closer to $ 200 million, on ads attacking Trump for
(01:53):
wanting to deport illegal immigrants, thinking it would swing especially
Latino voters, but all voters. They did polling after the
ad spend happened. And afterwards, they found out that voters
were more likely to vote for Trump than before they
had saw the ad. And it was a Democrat ad.
I mean, I couldn't stop laughing. I was like, this
(02:16):
is amazing. But then we started talking about the Jewish vote,
a lot of conversations and questions about, you know, Tucker
Carlson and whatnot. And they said that this is amazing. Like,
I don't disbelieve it, but it's amazing. Even among more...
center left Jews, I'm gonna say like far left, but
like center left Jews, criticisms of Israel are more negatively
(02:42):
interpreted than supporting reparations for blacks, which is one of
the worst polling issues there is. If you hear a
politician say, I want reparations for blacks, it has like
an 18% approval rating. It is an overwhelming, it is
like boys and girls sports. It is a culture war,
lightning rod that no one likes. So that was very interesting.
That was very, very interesting. And they were talking about
(03:05):
how the Jewish vote has been progressively moving towards Republicans.
And they think, you know, a lot of college educated people,
which a lot of Jews are college educated, just do
not like Trump's personality. They found him too gauche. They
find him too brazen and too crass and all the rest.
We all know the personality, right? Turn some people off. Well,
(03:28):
They were saying that they think someone like a Marco
Rubio style person who is more prim and proper, more,
I wouldn't say, Rubio's not moderate, but being more moderate temperament,
having a more moderate temperament, they think that they're just
going to lose the Jewish vote entirely. They were like,
(03:48):
we're just, if this Republican emerges because the Jewish vote
already is one foot out the door, they're just going
to be completely out the door. We're going to see
a giant flip, which, There's not that many Jews in
this country. I mean, people I know imagine that Jews are,
you know, I think more in population they are, but
they do represent some important congressional districts in some suburban
(04:09):
areas outside Detroit and Cleveland and Philadelphia and parts of
New Jersey and New York and Miami, of course, and Florida.
But the interesting thing about that was they were saying
that there's really been a push to get Jews out.
And they also, by the way, were telling me that they,
the Democratic Party, is prepping for a Rubio run, which
(04:30):
I was like, this is insane. I mean, Rubio could
not be signaling anymore to everybody that he is not
running than what he's already doing. He's not at all
showing any interest in running. He's not preparing a team
to run. He's not doing fundraising to run. It's all
mind numbing. I mean, it's just delusional thinking, but I mean,
(04:52):
that's Democrats for you. Speaking of presidential run, by the way,
This is not this conversation. This is not the Democratic conversation.
This is a text I got from a reporter during
the dinner. During the dinner, a reporter calls me or
texts me and says to me, I've heard speculation that
Treasury Secretary Scott Bassett is preparing a run for the
(05:13):
White House in 2028 with the hopes of them becoming
the vice president, that he could run and become the
vice president. He goes, can you confirm these rumors? I said, no,
I cannot. I've never heard this, not from anybody. But
I I believe you have a more likely chance of.
(05:35):
You know, of of Caroline Leavitt joining Scott Bessette and
his husband in a throuple like this is like not happening.
I don't believe at all this is happening. And with
the exceptions of Biden and Harris, it is very unusual
in the history of politics. for somebody to be selected
as the VP because they ran in the presidential election.
(05:57):
It didn't happen for Al Gore. It didn't happen for
Dick Cheney. It didn't happen for Mike Pence. It didn't
happen for JD Vance. It's only been a recent Democrat thing.
Republicans really haven't been nominating people who ran against them.
So it just seems ludicrous to me. So then I
asked the Democrats, I said, the Democrat consultants, I said,
name the most insufferable Democrat you have ever worked for.
(06:18):
And without a flinch one screen, Cori Bush. They're like,
she's insane. And she's done everything to herself to become
unelectable and unlikable, which I mean, I totally believe that
everyone who had seen Cori Bush knows that there's something
wrong going on there. Another one said Chris Murphy, who
seems like he's a, you know, like the elevator doesn't
get at the top floor. I mean, elevator definitely does
(06:40):
not go to the top floor. And the last one
was Tom Swasey, the congressman from New York, Mike LaPetrie,
who was on this podcast, is running as Tom Swasey.
And he was like, he is, the biggest snake in
the world. And I was like, I also completely believe
that because he's had 14 different evolutions of who he
thinks he's supposed to be because he wants to run
for governor one day, which is also delusional thinking. And
(07:03):
then we had a conversation about the ball, the White
House ball. And one of the Democrats said, like, this
is I was like, oh, I know it's unpopular, but
like this, they were like, this is like what MSNBC
does to the boomer brains. Like they have to feed
Trump anxiety at all times to the Trump hating audience.
(07:24):
So the ballroom does not measure at all as far
as an interest to the average voter whatsoever. But Democrat
activists have to spend so much time fixating on it
and spending fights in court cases and spending money and
energy because they have to hate every little issue that
Trump gets involved with, which I found very interesting that
(07:46):
they characterize it like that and how much MSNBC and
CNN and that left wing group kind of feed into
just anxiety and delusion about little things that don't matter
to the average voter. That was all very interesting. And
I think that that was it. That was like the
good gossip I had to bring to you. I was
just like I was chomping at the bits and I
(08:08):
was like, this is this is great. Like, this is
great for my audience. I cannot wait to to to
tell you all. So that was my little my little
treat for you guys today. On this Friday. So today's episode,
I have a lot of hot news items I want
to get to. A couple of non sequiturs, like they're
not connected at all. But I want to talk about
them briefly and then talk about some polling and some
(08:29):
election news in the break. And then, of course, ask
me anything. So two stories that came out of New
York City this last week, and they're good stories. This
is good news coming out of New York. First, the
New York City Council approved, I mean, the New York
City Council, if you do not know, it's 51 members
like 90% insane socialists who are like waving Palestinian flags.
Like they're nuts. But they approved a $ 1 million budget
(08:52):
to bring all eighth graders in the entire city to
the 9-11 memorial every year moving forward. And then they
are giving the 9-11 memorial, I think a quarter of
a million dollars to broadcast, to like basically do a
live interactive broadcast to all eighth graders in the entire country.
(09:12):
So everyone can kind of commemorate 9-11. I think this is,
on its face, a very good thing, right? If you've
never been to New York, never been to 9-11 Memorial,
it's very well done. It's very respectful. It honors the
people who died very, very well, in my opinion. One
thing I worry about, though, with this is that now
that they're going to incorporate kids and they're taking all
(09:33):
the city money, that they're going to whitewash what caused 9-11.
Like it's not going to be they're going to use
vague references of terrorism and they're going to move along
with it. You cannot talk about 9-11 without talking about
Islamic terrorism and Islamic extremism. You just you can't not
mention the cause. And I just have this like gut
(09:56):
feeling like as much as I'm happy that this is happening,
that these kids who were 9-11ers, born when 9-11 happened,
whose parents might have even been young, that they're going
to see a whitewashed version of it. I don't know.
I have this gut feeling. I hope it's not true,
but this is what I feel. The other New York
City news I wanted to talk about was Mayor Mondani
did something good, something I agree with. I mean, he did.
(10:17):
He did something I agree with, and I want to
give him props when he did something I agree with.
He is introducing a one-year-long temporary moratorium on all AIUs
in the classroom for kids up to the eighth grade.
So K through eight, they will not be allowed to
use AI in the classroom. This is according to the report.
It says, quote, the city said policy will halt the
(10:39):
use of about 40 educational AI tools currently used in
the classroom. Companion chatbots will also be banned across all
grade levels. However, high schoolers will be exempt from the
full ban. The city will roll out a twice yearly
AI literacy class for all public high school students and
launch a pilot program, letting some use of selected AI
platforms under teacher supervision used for high school. Teachers, meanwhile,
(11:02):
will all be permitted to use AI for lesson planning
and administrative tasks such as scheduling. Now, I don't think
a year is a long enough period of time, but
this is progress. I'll say something, and I'm not here
to judge other parents. I'm not here to parent shame.
I know everyone is doing their best. So I'll preface that.
In my opinion, and there's a lot of science to
(11:26):
back up my opinion, There is absolutely no reason for
a young child to have an iPad. There is no
reason for a first grader to use a Google Chromebook.
And there's no reason for a fourth grader to use
AI to do his class homework. There is zero reason
for any of this. The amount of money that Google
(11:47):
and Apple and Microsoft are putting into our classrooms and
our schools is mind boggling. they're trying to get your kids' data,
and they're trying to get government contracts worth billions of
dollars nationwide. And we have enough scientific research done on
(12:09):
the importance of things like handwriting. Handwriting activates a much broader,
highly connected network of brain regions in a child's brain,
including the ability to have reasonable visual processing, motor control, language,
that typing doesn't. Typing does not do that. Excessive screen time,
(12:29):
we know in young children is associated with delayed structural
development in the brain's white matter tracks. That's used for language,
for literacy, for cognitive control. And we have very limited
research on AI with children. What we do know is
that artificial intelligence absolutely impacts a child's brain development by
altering their cognitive engagement, social interaction, and learning habits. Like
(12:54):
If AI is doing the logic for you, you will
not use logic in your life. You'll never learn the
tools to use it. So kids spending these important years
of their life not learning how to think, not learning
how to process information, not using all the cognitive functions
of their brain and letting their brains properly develop is
(13:15):
doing them a disservice. There are a lot of people
making a lot of money selling parents on utter nonsense.
It is like the baby Einstein, where if your kid
just listens to this video, he's going to be a genius.
That was not true. Neither was baby Mozart. Neither was
a million other programs that they say they have to
(13:37):
use in order to become a genius. I know everyone
wants the best for their kids. There is absolutely no
evidence that any of this stuff helps a young child's
brain develop at all. And kudos to Mayor Mondani, because
I mean, He did something. It might blow up in
everyone's face and I might end up owning it on
(13:58):
this episode. But I agree with him on the AI
development that you have to slow it down for these
young children. It should not be in the classroom. One
last piece of information on New York City that I
thought was fascinating. A new report from the city comptroller's
office came out. It looked on income between 2019 to 2024.
That was when Bill de Blasio, the first like DSA
(14:20):
kind of mayor, was in charge of New York in many,
many years, decades, actually. And then Eric Adams, who was
a liberal who masked himself as a moderate, were mayor.
They said that there's the study found that there was
an increased concentration of wealth in New York City towards
the top income brackets during that during that time period.
And they were the only ones who actually saw their
incomes outgrow the cost of inflation. Two-thirds of all wage
(14:44):
growth came from the top 1% of wage earners in
New York City, with the top 0.01% of New Yorkers
earning an average of $ 600 million a year, up from
$ 360 million in 2019. That's basically 50 New York families.
That's not many people who, I mean, you could fit
them all in an Arby's. That's how small that group is.
(15:06):
And then those who make the top 1% make $ 4
million a year up from $ 2. 9 million per year in 2019.
That is actually a stark difference in the amount of
growth from the 0.1% to the 1%. I mean, they're
all doing well. But that is, I mean, one group
almost doubled their money and the other one probably increased
it by like 50%. That's a pretty big difference. The
(15:29):
average family income in New York City was $ 107, 000 in 2024,
which is $ 24, 000 higher than the national average. New York City, though,
remains one of the most expensive cities in the country.
So if you weren't in the top 20%, your wages
did not rise faster than cost of living and inflation.
Part of the reason we got Mayor Mondani. So, and
(15:51):
I agree with him on one thing, that the It
doesn't strike out the 140,000 other things I disagree with on. Anyway,
it just this is how these socialists are are getting elected.
But it also shows that all these socialist beliefs because
Bill de Blasio was, you know, basically as far left
as Mayor Mondani is. There's no light between them. He
was mayor for eight years with a full city council
(16:13):
and none of his stuff got done. None of his
cost of living measures. Nothing hurt the rich. Every these
people are. they have the intellectual depth of a puddle.
All these far left-wingers and none of these policies ever
end up working. So that was interesting. Last piece of
news I want to talk to you about is a
new census data that found that since January 2025, when
(16:36):
President Trump was sworn into the Oval Office, foreign population
has declined by 2.9 million people, with the illegal alien
population being the bulk of that, falling by 2.3 million people.
The foreign population has grew from 37.1 million people in
January 2009 to 53.3 million in January 2025, but has
(16:56):
since fallen to 50.5 million people, declining by 168,000 per month.
This is census data tracked by the Center for Immigration Studies.
The estimated preliminary drop in illegal immigration brings the number
of illegals living in this country from 16 million to
13.5 million. The biggest decline came from illegal immigrants from
(17:17):
Latin America. That's not shocking. That's where illegals have been
coming in this country for decades. So not surprising that
the bulk of people came from where the bulk of
people are from. Anyway, I've been saying that the mass
deportations are happening. It was showing in the birth data.
The birth data, I thought, was a preliminary information showing
where the numbers were looking. If the illegals or if
(17:38):
the foreign-born aliens are not here in the country, they
cannot have children in this country. And we were seeing
foreign born data, sorry, data from foreign born women dropping
by double digits every single month. And I said, there's
something going on here. All right, let's get some campaign
information that is coming up next. So Ted Cruz is
(17:59):
starting his run for the White House. For those who
are avid listeners, you've heard me say over and over again,
Marco Rubio is not running for the White House. But
Ted Cruz is Very much is. Well, fresh news from
the Wall Street Journal said that Ted Cruz is in
Iowa and he's not making a secret that he wants
to be the next president of the United States. He
is hitting the state's podcast circuit while promoting his new book.
(18:21):
I actually didn't even know he had a new book. So.
And I mean, it's not being promoted very, very well.
I love how, by the way, politicians always do this.
They release a book and they do a book tour
as if that means that they are not running for
president when it's very they're like, oh, I'm doing a
book tour. Where are you going? New York, Houston, L.A.? No,
I'm going to Iowa. Yeah. and South Carolina. You know,
(18:43):
that's the only place they go to sell books, apparently. Anyway,
he's also not so quietly been asking people if they
were interested in working for him for his 2028 bid.
He's also taking shots at his most likely rival, Vice
President J.D. Vance. Cruz told MSNBC that the party hasn't
coalesced around Vance. They said, quote, I'll certainly be part
(19:05):
of the discussion and is hitting Vance for not separating
himself from Tucker Carlson, who many claim is the leading
voice of anti-Semitism on the right. He's also attacked Vance's
MOU deal with Iran. Ironically, something that neocons love doing
is pretending that Vance is working by himself without Trump's,
(19:27):
you know, signing off on this Iran deal, as if,
you know, Trump is completely unaware that his vice president's
doing this when he's actually working for the president and
on behalf of the president. It's kind of comical because
they can't ever attack Trump, but they'll just attack fans
and pretend that Trump's not, you know, has no idea.
He's just he's so busy. He's no clue what's going on.
(19:47):
Not true. This most recent trip to I is Cruz's
third this year. Cruz is setting himself to be the anti-vans.
A big part of that equation is going to be Israel.
He's going to really try to tie Tucker Carlson to
vans and try to get evangelical and Jews on his side.
I don't know if that's going to work. But I
(20:10):
don't think you could run for president, even in the
Republican primaries, solely on Israel. Because aside from Republicans over
the age of 50, Israel is really not doing well
in the polls. And the problem for Cruz is he
has all the basic principles that a Republican has. There's
(20:31):
nothing that interesting. And he's learned absolutely nothing from the
last battle, from his last time running for president. What
is Cruz going to run on that is interesting and popular?
He supports virtually no regulations on AI. JD is not
that far different. I mean, that's a problem for JD
as well, because AI regulation is very supported. A more
(20:51):
aggressive stance on Iran. Is that what Cruz is going
to campaign on? That's not popular. No regulations on data centers.
That's not popular. What is he going to say that's popular?
More tax cuts? I mean, sure. But I mean, that's
not what, that's not people, that's not on everyone's mouth.
(21:13):
That's not what everyone's thinking. And the problem is, is
he still sounds like he's from 2012. You lost the
last race. What are you going to do different? I mean,
and he's running around still saying, we need to keep
legal immigration. Is legal immigration good? Illegal immigration bad? As
Texas Republicans are growing increasingly worried about about the population
of Muslims in the state who came here legally. Ted,
(21:40):
you have to realize that what you're saying makes no
sense from the policies you advocate for. I just don't
see it. Ted Cruz is also likely to hire, this
is what's inside baseball, Ted Cruz is likely to hire
the same team that Rhonda Sanders had. It's Axiom Strategies.
They do all of Ted Cruz's races. They're doing Ken
(22:00):
Paxton's race. They are really big in Texas. They're big nationwide,
but they're really big in Texas. And how is that
going to go better? What, because Trump's on the ticket
that all of the other issues around Ted Cruz are
going to go away? I don't see it. I mean,
I don't think Republicans hate Ted Cruz, but I just
don't see him being a viable presidential candidate. And I think, allegedly...
(22:26):
A lot of this comes from his dad, who has
like this prophetic belief that Ted is anointed by God
to run for president, allegedly has told many people something
like that. We'll see. OK, now here are some polls
I want to go over. There's one in Iowa. A
new Emerson poll found that Republican Ashley Hinson has a
(22:48):
strong lead over Democrat Josh Turek, leading 50 to 45,
while the governor's race is down to the margin of error.
Democrat Rob Sandley is a Republican. Zach Lane, 49 to 46. Lane,
who was a guest on the show, saw a three-point bounce.
This is the third poll in a row that says
that Sand's lead has declined to less than five points.
(23:09):
It is growing more narrow by the day. Another poll
from Concord Opinion Poll found that Democrat Kathy Hochul has
a 16-point lead against Republican Bruce Blakeman. This comes as
a plurality of New Yorkers say the state is on
the wrong track, with only 41 percent saying the state
is on the right track. So naturally, New Yorkers being
the bunch of insane people that they are, they are
deciding to do the same thing over and over again,
(23:30):
hoping for different results. Interesting part of this poll, one,
the governor's race really matters for the down ballot races
because he's got to get close so he can help
Republicans running in Long Island, running upstate. The other interesting
part of this poll, the most unpopular politician in New
York State who's from New York State, not counting Trump,
not counting Vance, none of that stuff. The most unpopular
(23:50):
politician from New York State, Chuck Schumer. Good luck to
you in 2028, Chuck, surviving that Democratic primary. It's not
looking too good. A Harvard-Harris poll. This is not a
poll I love. I don't like Harvard-Harris. I don't really
trust their work, but... What I'm seeing in their poll
(24:12):
is in other polls. That's why I'm repeating. That's why
I'm mentioning it. They found that Kamala Harris has a
massive 46 point lead among black voters in their newest survey.
She is a wide, wide range of support from this coalition.
And it's really important in places like Virginia and South Carolina.
I don't know if she's the leading candidate for the
(24:33):
Democratic nomination in 2028, but I kind of think she
might be. I kind of think she's actually much stronger
this time than people give her credit for. Maybe she'll
burn out. Who knows? It's not definitive. This is her
third run for the White House, but I think she's
got some wind in her sails for the first time
with the black vote. We'll see if that ends up
becoming real. I don't know. It's very early, but there's
(24:56):
a lot going on there. And the last poll I
want to mention is a Gallup poll that found a
record high. 47% of Americans believe labor unions should have
more influence in the U.S., I think it's only going
to get higher as AI becomes a bigger part of
our life. The demand for union and organized labor to
protect jobs will be coming a rallying cry, I predict.
(25:18):
And I would not be surprised to see this number
reach over 50% in the next year or two. I
think this demand for organized labor will become more and
more important as time goes on because of AI. All right,
let's get to Ask Me Anything. That is coming up next.
Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If
you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment,
(25:40):
email me ryan at numbersgamepodcast.com. That's ryan at numbers, plural, numbersgamepodcast.com.
First question comes from Greg. Greg says, this is Greg
from New Jersey. Hey, Greg. I love your episode last
year about your mom, 9-11. God bless her. Thank you
so much. That is still my most listened to episode
of all time. We'll see if the new 9-11 episodes
(26:00):
do better. I hope they do because I really want
these stories to come out next week. Recently, the last
couple of years, I've been trying to find a book
that dealt with 9-11, but nothing dealing with the actual
attacks or politics or terrorists leading up to it. So
since I've been overly slaughtered, sorry, overly saturated with that
from college and just my own reading, I wanted to
(26:21):
know how New Yorkers reacted post 9-11 with ordinary New
Yorkers and Americans having to go on with their lives.
I started watching extremely loud, incredibly close with Tom Hanks,
but for some reason it didn't really stick with me.
And I couldn't finish the movie. I've never seen that movie. Um,
and just recently I got the book falling man by
Don Deli Del Lelio. It's a fictional book dealing with
(26:41):
the attacks of nine 11. Uh, I've never read that
book either. If it's good, let me know. So I
remember I was 14 when the attacks happened in New
York and my mom worked the 97th floor of tower one.
She survived. She was running late to work that day.
Thank God. And she was in the train underneath the
building when the, when the plane hit. Um, uh, So
she felt the shaking. Watch the episode if you've never
(27:02):
heard of it. It's a really good episode between me
and my mom and having a conversation about it that
we never had. I remember certain things extremely vividly. And
by the way, I really hope you listen to next
Wednesday and Friday's episode, the two 9-11 episodes we have
coming out. One is of a woman who worked in
the World Trade Center and was in the 80th floor
(27:23):
of Tower One and walked down 88 flights of stairs.
Her story is just... jaw-dropping and the other is with
a girl who i went to school with grammar school
i've known her since i was four years old and
her dad was a firefighter and died 9-11 and i
(27:43):
never talked to her about 9-11 because i felt kind
of guilty i felt a little guilty that my mom
lived and her dad died So we're going to have
that conversation. And I don't think there's ever been a
conversation from two people, one whose parent lived and another
whose parent died. And there are things I want to
(28:04):
ask her. And I want everyone to know her dad
was an extraordinary man. I want people to know about her,
but I want to have this real conversation. The things
I remember most in the in the weeks and months
that were post 9-11 were like certain things. I could
close my eyes and I could see them. For instance,
there was an express bus near my house that went
from Queens to Manhattan to downtown Manhattan. And on the glass,
(28:26):
there's always glass around express bus to like break up
the wind. It was just wall to wall taped pictures
of people that had gone missing with their parents saying,
if you've seen so-and-so, please call. There were so many
people hopeful that their relative had got hit in the
head and had amnesia. or were in a hospital bed
(28:49):
and they couldn't call anybody and they were in a
coma but they wouldn't make it out of it the
level of people who had so much I mean hope
feels like a bad word but it was just like
it's that gulp in your throat where you're like please
let this be okay and my mom knew so many
people so because like our whole office died so or
(29:12):
basically our whole office died so There were just so
many people that she was just in constant contact with saying,
have you heard that from them? Have you seen them?
And as the days went on, realizing they're not in
a hospital, they didn't have a coma. They're not there.
They're gone. I remember that very, very distinctly. I remember
those pictures like I could close my eyes and see
(29:34):
those pictures. There was a lot of anxiety about another accident.
I don't remember this, but there was a plane crash
in Rockaway, Queens, a few weeks after the crash. And
many people thought it was a terrorist attack. I mean,
it was there was pre-internet, pre-social media. So this was
just gossip and conversation that I'd heard as a teenager.
(29:55):
But that was very much the case. And the last
thing is like, I mean, every cop and firefighter and
construction worker I basically knew in my life was down
there picking things out from rubble. And I remember one
day around Halloween, my dad came by and he was
in his police uniform and he was covered in dust.
(30:16):
It looked like dust. And my mom just got so upset.
And she's like, those are my friend's ashes. I just
remember those things. So it was like, deep sadness, deep anxiety,
and this very quickly passing hope that people you hadn't
heard from had made it out somehow. And there were
(30:38):
a lot of rumors and stories of people being found three, four,
five days later. I don't know if any of them
are true. I don't remember them at all. But there's
stories of people surviving as it came down, like hiding
in their desk and like making it down like 50 floors.
I don't know if any of that's true. But those
stories were like rampant in the days afterwards. So those
(30:58):
are things I remember. I mean, that's how I can
best describe it as a New Yorker from my memory.
And I have a pretty good memory. Yeah, it's terrible.
But I think I'm going to I'm going to do
my best to have a great week next week talking
about them, remembering some people and really having an honest conversation.
So I really hope everyone listens to those two episodes
on Wednesday and on Friday. Monday is Labor Day, so
(31:22):
it's not going to be an episode. Next question comes
from Connor. Connor has been listening since day one. Thank you, Connor.
Worried about your comparisons of Georgia to Virginia as a
Georgia resident. Are things really that bad? Are Republicans doomed
in Georgia this midterm season and beyond? I would be
shocked if Austin lost because it seems like Atlanta Metro
just keeps getting bluer and bluer. They do. Context, I
(31:43):
live in the most conservative part of DeKalb County. It
is still 60-40 damn area. That is rough. I think
the only hope for Georgia is breaking the 92-8 black margin.
Do you agree? I think that's what you've been saying.
Although I know Republicans have been saying money on fire
for this for years. Do I agree with that? Yes
(32:05):
and no. So I will tell you guys a story.
When I was, it was, God, how many years ago
was this now? 20, 2026. It was 2018. I was
in Georgia driving. I was working. I had just finished
working as a journalist and I was driving in Georgia
and And I was in rural Georgia and I was
(32:25):
passing by a house. It was a black man in
rural Georgia with a sign for Governor Kemp. And I
said something along the lines of, like, you're voting for Kemp.
And he said, I ain't letting no fat lesbian from
Atlanta take my gun away. True story. I think that...
(32:50):
I think that... There are a lot of rural black
Georgians who are likely more likely to move towards Republicans
than the metro Atlantic area. I just think those those
near Atlanta is just drawing in so many black people
from other states who are upper class or middle class
(33:14):
who are not southern in their practices. They just live
in Atlanta. And the electorate has just changed tremendously. In 2016,
I believe it was, the non-Black, non-white electorate was 13%.
It used to be 9%. Asians and Latinos are also
(33:38):
moving to the Atlanta suburbs. That's also what's happening. And
the path that Republicans used to have was getting 75%
of the white vote. Well, Republicans are not getting some
of the white vote anymore. So you need to claw
back some support among white voters and win over a
bigger portion of the Latin and Asian community, which is difficult.
(34:02):
It's not easy. Trump did it. And Trump also meant
for the fact that the black turnout was down by
about one percent. And that makes a big difference. Or
maybe two percent is like two percent down. If the
black electorate is over, if the black vote is over
30 percent of the electorate, it's very difficult in Georgia.
But that growing non-black minority in Georgia is what's really
(34:24):
radically changing the state and making it difficult. Is anything lost? No,
nothing is always lost. But it becomes much, much, much
more difficult. And I think that rural blacks in South
Georgia are much more attainable. Also, Republicans have not maxed
out on their rural white vote. The rural white vote
in the north part of Georgia is like 80% Republican.
(34:44):
The rural white vote in the southern part of Georgia
is like 60% Republican. So they need to do a
lot better job at maxing out those rural counties. That's very,
very important. Next question comes from Chris. Chris says, anyhow,
I was watching a North Carolina play Texas Christian University
on ESPN. First college game of the season. I saw
an anti-Talarico ad. It was well-produced. Since I live in Cincinnati,
(35:09):
it was a national ad buy. Do you know anything
about the Truth and Courage Pack? Yes, that is the
Ted Cruz super pack that he put that $ 1. 7 million
that I mentioned the other day in. It's an ad
buy for college football. I guess it was a national
ad buy. I didn't know that. I thought it was
just local. But it's for the Houston and Dallas games.
(35:29):
And I guess most people are going to watch them
in Houston and Dallas. But he was very tactful about
picking out college sports games. And that's why you saw
that there. Next question comes from another Chris. He says,
I heard you doing a podcast episode for 9-11. I
wanted to share a personal story. Big fan of the podcast.
I got my boyfriend to listen to. He's a fan too.
Chris and your boyfriend, thank you both so much. You're right.
(35:50):
My grandmother worked at Bank of America in the first
tower on the 10th floor and was there to work
that day. When the first plane hit, everyone in her
office was confused about what was happening. She remembers putting
her pregnant friend under the desk to protect her. They
all thought it was an earthquake or maybe another bombing.
And then there was a total confusion about what to
do or should they evacuate. I was in fifth grade
(36:12):
and our teacher, Miss Rowland, wheeled in a TV and
put on the news and told us what happened. They
pulled me out of the classroom until my grandmother was okay,
but I really had no concept of what was even happening.
She lost a lot of people she loved, co-workers and friends,
and people she considered family and experienced all the horrors
of the day, the massive panic and all the smoke
and falling debris, people jumping off of buildings, literally leaving
(36:33):
the building when the second plane hit. It was incredibly traumatizing,
and she gets emotional when she talks about it too much,
but she still tells me about it every time I ask.
She actually considers 9-11 to be her second birthday because
she believes God gave her a second chance of life
that day. She says, every time, thank God for the
firefighters and other people who gave their lives that day
to try to save others. Thank you for doing this
(36:54):
podcast episode, this episode in particular, and for telling the
stories of people who sacrificed everything that day to help
other people. It's because of them that my grandmother is
still with me today. That's very beautiful, Chris. I'm so
happy that she is as well. Okay. Last question is
from Jason. Jason has. Hey, Ryan, I listen to most
(37:15):
of your episodes and really enjoy your show. Thank you, Jason.
I look if you're watching. That was a lot, Chris.
That last letter. I look I like looking at the
RCP polling average among other metrics. I'm just obsessed in
general about how many days away from the election are
the polls going. going to be the most accurate and
(37:36):
also does early voting factor into polls in the homestretch.
Thank you for informing and entertaining me, Jason. So I
would say, I mean, the closer the polls are, the
closer we are to election is more accurate. The polls
are because our polls are just snapshots in time. They're
not predictors of the future. They're saying this is how
people feel right now. If everything changes in the next,
(37:57):
you know, month and year, then a month, we're going
to see a massive polling change. in a very short
period of time. And I think that that's really kind
of what you what you want to look at. So
we're just seeing snapshots in time, but they show trends
and trends are very important. When it comes to how
early voting matters, there will be polls. Not all firms
will ask this, but a lot of them will say,
(38:18):
how are you voting? Did you vote already? Are you
planning to vote on Election Day? Are you going to
vote early in person? And Republicans are typically when the
in-person and on election day and Democrats just massive landslide
for the mail-in ballots. And that's how you'll see that.
And they'll try to weigh those those votes. And I mean,
it's not super important for the polls, but it's just
(38:38):
kind of an insight to how people are voting, which
parties are polling, which ways and voting and how they're
tending to vote. But that's really all that that is.
So I guess you probably wouldn't wait till like late
mid to late October for which is not that long
away for to see those to see those polling numbers
kind of come to fruition. All right, guys, that's it
for this episode. Happy Friday. Hope you have a great
(38:59):
Labor Day weekend. If you like this podcast, please like
and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, YouTube, wherever
you get this podcast. Give me a five star review
if you like it and make sure you're back here
next week. We're gonna have a great week. Talk to
you guys soon.
Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowski. Thank
you guys for being here. I have a good show
for you guys today. I have some juice for you.
So I went to dinner with some very smart Democratic consultants,
friends of mine, who I haven't seen in a bit
of time. And really, we were in an environment where
we were just talking freely. No names because we're going
(00:25):
to keep it, you know, I don't want to burn anybody,
but the conversation was good. Because we were talking about
the midterms. And the funny thing is sometimes Democrats are
surprised that Republicans also read data. So I was asking them,
what do your internal polls look like for the generic ballot? Now,
(00:46):
I have no candidates in the 2026 election. I'm not
consulting anybody. So it's not like I'm doing this for
a client and they feel like it was against their client.
So it's not like that. It was just a general conversation.
And they were like, well, I don't know. And I'm
like somewhere like between six and eight. Right. And they go, yeah,
about that, which is what basically every poll is saying.
(01:07):
D plus six to D plus eight. But I said, yeah, but,
you know, every election except for 2018 and I believe
2022 polls underestimated. Republican turnout by about an average of
three points. And they were like, wow, that's true. That's true.
I'm like, I know it's true. That's why I said it. Like,
I mean, I read data just as often as you do.
(01:29):
But here's where the gossip got good. And they were
talking amongst themselves. I was kind of more eavesdropping during
this part of the conversation. They were talking about an
ad campaign in the 2024 presidential election. This blew my mind.
Democrats spent upwards of $ 100 million, I think that was
actually closer to $ 200 million, on ads attacking Trump for
(01:53):
wanting to deport illegal immigrants, thinking it would swing especially
Latino voters, but all voters. They did polling after the
ad spend happened. And afterwards, they found out that voters
were more likely to vote for Trump than before they
had saw the ad. And it was a Democrat ad.
I mean, I couldn't stop laughing. I was like, this
(02:16):
is amazing. But then we started talking about the Jewish vote,
a lot of conversations and questions about, you know, Tucker
Carlson and whatnot. And they said that this is amazing. Like,
I don't disbelieve it, but it's amazing. Even among more...
center left Jews, I'm gonna say like far left, but
like center left Jews, criticisms of Israel are more negatively
(02:42):
interpreted than supporting reparations for blacks, which is one of
the worst polling issues there is. If you hear a
politician say, I want reparations for blacks, it has like
an 18% approval rating. It is an overwhelming, it is
like boys and girls sports. It is a culture war,
lightning rod that no one likes. So that was very interesting.
That was very, very interesting. And they were talking about
(03:05):
how the Jewish vote has been progressively moving towards Republicans.
And they think, you know, a lot of college educated people,
which a lot of Jews are college educated, just do
not like Trump's personality. They found him too gauche. They
find him too brazen and too crass and all the rest.
We all know the personality, right? Turn some people off. Well,
(03:28):
They were saying that they think someone like a Marco
Rubio style person who is more prim and proper, more,
I wouldn't say, Rubio's not moderate, but being more moderate temperament,
having a more moderate temperament, they think that they're just
going to lose the Jewish vote entirely. They were like,
(03:48):
we're just, if this Republican emerges because the Jewish vote
already is one foot out the door, they're just going
to be completely out the door. We're going to see
a giant flip, which, There's not that many Jews in
this country. I mean, people I know imagine that Jews are,
you know, I think more in population they are, but
they do represent some important congressional districts in some suburban
(04:09):
areas outside Detroit and Cleveland and Philadelphia and parts of
New Jersey and New York and Miami, of course, and Florida.
But the interesting thing about that was they were saying
that there's really been a push to get Jews out.
And they also, by the way, were telling me that they,
the Democratic Party, is prepping for a Rubio run, which
(04:30):
I was like, this is insane. I mean, Rubio could
not be signaling anymore to everybody that he is not
running than what he's already doing. He's not at all
showing any interest in running. He's not preparing a team
to run. He's not doing fundraising to run. It's all
mind numbing. I mean, it's just delusional thinking, but I mean,
(04:52):
that's Democrats for you. Speaking of presidential run, by the way,
This is not this conversation. This is not the Democratic conversation.
This is a text I got from a reporter during
the dinner. During the dinner, a reporter calls me or
texts me and says to me, I've heard speculation that
Treasury Secretary Scott Bassett is preparing a run for the
(05:13):
White House in 2028 with the hopes of them becoming
the vice president, that he could run and become the
vice president. He goes, can you confirm these rumors? I said, no,
I cannot. I've never heard this, not from anybody. But
I I believe you have a more likely chance of.
(05:35):
You know, of of Caroline Leavitt joining Scott Bessette and
his husband in a throuple like this is like not happening.
I don't believe at all this is happening. And with
the exceptions of Biden and Harris, it is very unusual
in the history of politics. for somebody to be selected
as the VP because they ran in the presidential election.
(05:57):
It didn't happen for Al Gore. It didn't happen for
Dick Cheney. It didn't happen for Mike Pence. It didn't
happen for JD Vance. It's only been a recent Democrat thing.
Republicans really haven't been nominating people who ran against them.
So it just seems ludicrous to me. So then I
asked the Democrats, I said, the Democrat consultants, I said,
name the most insufferable Democrat you have ever worked for.
(06:18):
And without a flinch one screen, Cori Bush. They're like,
she's insane. And she's done everything to herself to become
unelectable and unlikable, which I mean, I totally believe that
everyone who had seen Cori Bush knows that there's something
wrong going on there. Another one said Chris Murphy, who
seems like he's a, you know, like the elevator doesn't
get at the top floor. I mean, elevator definitely does
(06:40):
not go to the top floor. And the last one
was Tom Swasey, the congressman from New York, Mike LaPetrie,
who was on this podcast, is running as Tom Swasey.
And he was like, he is, the biggest snake in
the world. And I was like, I also completely believe
that because he's had 14 different evolutions of who he
thinks he's supposed to be because he wants to run
for governor one day, which is also delusional thinking. And
(07:03):
then we had a conversation about the ball, the White
House ball. And one of the Democrats said, like, this
is I was like, oh, I know it's unpopular, but
like this, they were like, this is like what MSNBC
does to the boomer brains. Like they have to feed
Trump anxiety at all times to the Trump hating audience.
(07:24):
So the ballroom does not measure at all as far
as an interest to the average voter whatsoever. But Democrat
activists have to spend so much time fixating on it
and spending fights in court cases and spending money and
energy because they have to hate every little issue that
Trump gets involved with, which I found very interesting that
(07:46):
they characterize it like that and how much MSNBC and
CNN and that left wing group kind of feed into
just anxiety and delusion about little things that don't matter
to the average voter. That was all very interesting. And
I think that that was it. That was like the
good gossip I had to bring to you. I was
just like I was chomping at the bits and I
(08:08):
was like, this is this is great. Like, this is
great for my audience. I cannot wait to to to
tell you all. So that was my little my little
treat for you guys today. On this Friday. So today's episode,
I have a lot of hot news items I want
to get to. A couple of non sequiturs, like they're
not connected at all. But I want to talk about
them briefly and then talk about some polling and some
(08:29):
election news in the break. And then, of course, ask
me anything. So two stories that came out of New
York City this last week, and they're good stories. This
is good news coming out of New York. First, the
New York City Council approved, I mean, the New York
City Council, if you do not know, it's 51 members
like 90% insane socialists who are like waving Palestinian flags.
Like they're nuts. But they approved a $ 1 million budget
(08:52):
to bring all eighth graders in the entire city to
the 9-11 memorial every year moving forward. And then they
are giving the 9-11 memorial, I think a quarter of
a million dollars to broadcast, to like basically do a
live interactive broadcast to all eighth graders in the entire country.
(09:12):
So everyone can kind of commemorate 9-11. I think this is,
on its face, a very good thing, right? If you've
never been to New York, never been to 9-11 Memorial,
it's very well done. It's very respectful. It honors the
people who died very, very well, in my opinion. One
thing I worry about, though, with this is that now
that they're going to incorporate kids and they're taking all
(09:33):
the city money, that they're going to whitewash what caused 9-11.
Like it's not going to be they're going to use
vague references of terrorism and they're going to move along
with it. You cannot talk about 9-11 without talking about
Islamic terrorism and Islamic extremism. You just you can't not
mention the cause. And I just have this like gut
(09:56):
feeling like as much as I'm happy that this is happening,
that these kids who were 9-11ers, born when 9-11 happened,
whose parents might have even been young, that they're going
to see a whitewashed version of it. I don't know.
I have this gut feeling. I hope it's not true,
but this is what I feel. The other New York
City news I wanted to talk about was Mayor Mondani
did something good, something I agree with. I mean, he did.
(10:17):
He did something I agree with, and I want to
give him props when he did something I agree with.
He is introducing a one-year-long temporary moratorium on all AIUs
in the classroom for kids up to the eighth grade.
So K through eight, they will not be allowed to
use AI in the classroom. This is according to the report.
It says, quote, the city said policy will halt the
(10:39):
use of about 40 educational AI tools currently used in
the classroom. Companion chatbots will also be banned across all
grade levels. However, high schoolers will be exempt from the
full ban. The city will roll out a twice yearly
AI literacy class for all public high school students and
launch a pilot program, letting some use of selected AI
platforms under teacher supervision used for high school. Teachers, meanwhile,
(11:02):
will all be permitted to use AI for lesson planning
and administrative tasks such as scheduling. Now, I don't think
a year is a long enough period of time, but
this is progress. I'll say something, and I'm not here
to judge other parents. I'm not here to parent shame.
I know everyone is doing their best. So I'll preface that.
In my opinion, and there's a lot of science to
(11:26):
back up my opinion, There is absolutely no reason for
a young child to have an iPad. There is no
reason for a first grader to use a Google Chromebook.
And there's no reason for a fourth grader to use
AI to do his class homework. There is zero reason
for any of this. The amount of money that Google
(11:47):
and Apple and Microsoft are putting into our classrooms and
our schools is mind boggling. they're trying to get your kids' data,
and they're trying to get government contracts worth billions of
dollars nationwide. And we have enough scientific research done on
(12:09):
the importance of things like handwriting. Handwriting activates a much broader,
highly connected network of brain regions in a child's brain,
including the ability to have reasonable visual processing, motor control, language,
that typing doesn't. Typing does not do that. Excessive screen time,
(12:29):
we know in young children is associated with delayed structural
development in the brain's white matter tracks. That's used for language,
for literacy, for cognitive control. And we have very limited
research on AI with children. What we do know is
that artificial intelligence absolutely impacts a child's brain development by
altering their cognitive engagement, social interaction, and learning habits. Like
(12:54):
If AI is doing the logic for you, you will
not use logic in your life. You'll never learn the
tools to use it. So kids spending these important years
of their life not learning how to think, not learning
how to process information, not using all the cognitive functions
of their brain and letting their brains properly develop is
(13:15):
doing them a disservice. There are a lot of people
making a lot of money selling parents on utter nonsense.
It is like the baby Einstein, where if your kid
just listens to this video, he's going to be a genius.
That was not true. Neither was baby Mozart. Neither was
a million other programs that they say they have to
(13:37):
use in order to become a genius. I know everyone
wants the best for their kids. There is absolutely no
evidence that any of this stuff helps a young child's
brain develop at all. And kudos to Mayor Mondani, because
I mean, He did something. It might blow up in
everyone's face and I might end up owning it on
(13:58):
this episode. But I agree with him on the AI
development that you have to slow it down for these
young children. It should not be in the classroom. One
last piece of information on New York City that I
thought was fascinating. A new report from the city comptroller's
office came out. It looked on income between 2019 to 2024.
That was when Bill de Blasio, the first like DSA
(14:20):
kind of mayor, was in charge of New York in many,
many years, decades, actually. And then Eric Adams, who was
a liberal who masked himself as a moderate, were mayor.
They said that there's the study found that there was
an increased concentration of wealth in New York City towards
the top income brackets during that during that time period.
And they were the only ones who actually saw their
incomes outgrow the cost of inflation. Two-thirds of all wage
(14:44):
growth came from the top 1% of wage earners in
New York City, with the top 0.01% of New Yorkers
earning an average of $ 600 million a year, up from
$ 360 million in 2019. That's basically 50 New York families.
That's not many people who, I mean, you could fit
them all in an Arby's. That's how small that group is.
(15:06):
And then those who make the top 1% make $ 4
million a year up from $ 2. 9 million per year in 2019.
That is actually a stark difference in the amount of
growth from the 0.1% to the 1%. I mean, they're
all doing well. But that is, I mean, one group
almost doubled their money and the other one probably increased
it by like 50%. That's a pretty big difference. The
(15:29):
average family income in New York City was $ 107, 000 in 2024,
which is $ 24, 000 higher than the national average. New York City, though,
remains one of the most expensive cities in the country.
So if you weren't in the top 20%, your wages
did not rise faster than cost of living and inflation.
Part of the reason we got Mayor Mondani. So, and
(15:51):
I agree with him on one thing, that the It
doesn't strike out the 140,000 other things I disagree with on. Anyway,
it just this is how these socialists are are getting elected.
But it also shows that all these socialist beliefs because
Bill de Blasio was, you know, basically as far left
as Mayor Mondani is. There's no light between them. He
was mayor for eight years with a full city council
(16:13):
and none of his stuff got done. None of his
cost of living measures. Nothing hurt the rich. Every these
people are. they have the intellectual depth of a puddle.
All these far left-wingers and none of these policies ever
end up working. So that was interesting. Last piece of
news I want to talk to you about is a
new census data that found that since January 2025, when
(16:36):
President Trump was sworn into the Oval Office, foreign population
has declined by 2.9 million people, with the illegal alien
population being the bulk of that, falling by 2.3 million people.
The foreign population has grew from 37.1 million people in
January 2009 to 53.3 million in January 2025, but has
(16:56):
since fallen to 50.5 million people, declining by 168,000 per month.
This is census data tracked by the Center for Immigration Studies.
The estimated preliminary drop in illegal immigration brings the number
of illegals living in this country from 16 million to
13.5 million. The biggest decline came from illegal immigrants from
(17:17):
Latin America. That's not shocking. That's where illegals have been
coming in this country for decades. So not surprising that
the bulk of people came from where the bulk of
people are from. Anyway, I've been saying that the mass
deportations are happening. It was showing in the birth data.
The birth data, I thought, was a preliminary information showing
where the numbers were looking. If the illegals or if
(17:38):
the foreign-born aliens are not here in the country, they
cannot have children in this country. And we were seeing
foreign born data, sorry, data from foreign born women dropping
by double digits every single month. And I said, there's
something going on here. All right, let's get some campaign
information that is coming up next. So Ted Cruz is
(17:59):
starting his run for the White House. For those who
are avid listeners, you've heard me say over and over again,
Marco Rubio is not running for the White House. But
Ted Cruz is Very much is. Well, fresh news from
the Wall Street Journal said that Ted Cruz is in
Iowa and he's not making a secret that he wants
to be the next president of the United States. He
is hitting the state's podcast circuit while promoting his new book.
(18:21):
I actually didn't even know he had a new book. So.
And I mean, it's not being promoted very, very well.
I love how, by the way, politicians always do this.
They release a book and they do a book tour
as if that means that they are not running for
president when it's very they're like, oh, I'm doing a
book tour. Where are you going? New York, Houston, L.A.? No,
I'm going to Iowa. Yeah. and South Carolina. You know,
(18:43):
that's the only place they go to sell books, apparently. Anyway,
he's also not so quietly been asking people if they
were interested in working for him for his 2028 bid.
He's also taking shots at his most likely rival, Vice
President J.D. Vance. Cruz told MSNBC that the party hasn't
coalesced around Vance. They said, quote, I'll certainly be part
(19:05):
of the discussion and is hitting Vance for not separating
himself from Tucker Carlson, who many claim is the leading
voice of anti-Semitism on the right. He's also attacked Vance's
MOU deal with Iran. Ironically, something that neocons love doing
is pretending that Vance is working by himself without Trump's,
(19:27):
you know, signing off on this Iran deal, as if,
you know, Trump is completely unaware that his vice president's
doing this when he's actually working for the president and
on behalf of the president. It's kind of comical because
they can't ever attack Trump, but they'll just attack fans
and pretend that Trump's not, you know, has no idea.
He's just he's so busy. He's no clue what's going on.
(19:47):
Not true. This most recent trip to I is Cruz's
third this year. Cruz is setting himself to be the anti-vans.
A big part of that equation is going to be Israel.
He's going to really try to tie Tucker Carlson to
vans and try to get evangelical and Jews on his side.
I don't know if that's going to work. But I
(20:10):
don't think you could run for president, even in the
Republican primaries, solely on Israel. Because aside from Republicans over
the age of 50, Israel is really not doing well
in the polls. And the problem for Cruz is he
has all the basic principles that a Republican has. There's
(20:31):
nothing that interesting. And he's learned absolutely nothing from the
last battle, from his last time running for president. What
is Cruz going to run on that is interesting and popular?
He supports virtually no regulations on AI. JD is not
that far different. I mean, that's a problem for JD
as well, because AI regulation is very supported. A more
(20:51):
aggressive stance on Iran. Is that what Cruz is going
to campaign on? That's not popular. No regulations on data centers.
That's not popular. What is he going to say that's popular?
More tax cuts? I mean, sure. But I mean, that's
not what, that's not people, that's not on everyone's mouth.
(21:13):
That's not what everyone's thinking. And the problem is, is
he still sounds like he's from 2012. You lost the
last race. What are you going to do different? I mean,
and he's running around still saying, we need to keep
legal immigration. Is legal immigration good? Illegal immigration bad? As
Texas Republicans are growing increasingly worried about about the population
of Muslims in the state who came here legally. Ted,
(21:40):
you have to realize that what you're saying makes no
sense from the policies you advocate for. I just don't
see it. Ted Cruz is also likely to hire, this
is what's inside baseball, Ted Cruz is likely to hire
the same team that Rhonda Sanders had. It's Axiom Strategies.
They do all of Ted Cruz's races. They're doing Ken
(22:00):
Paxton's race. They are really big in Texas. They're big nationwide,
but they're really big in Texas. And how is that
going to go better? What, because Trump's on the ticket
that all of the other issues around Ted Cruz are
going to go away? I don't see it. I mean,
I don't think Republicans hate Ted Cruz, but I just
don't see him being a viable presidential candidate. And I think, allegedly...
(22:26):
A lot of this comes from his dad, who has
like this prophetic belief that Ted is anointed by God
to run for president, allegedly has told many people something
like that. We'll see. OK, now here are some polls
I want to go over. There's one in Iowa. A
new Emerson poll found that Republican Ashley Hinson has a
(22:48):
strong lead over Democrat Josh Turek, leading 50 to 45,
while the governor's race is down to the margin of error.
Democrat Rob Sandley is a Republican. Zach Lane, 49 to 46. Lane,
who was a guest on the show, saw a three-point bounce.
This is the third poll in a row that says
that Sand's lead has declined to less than five points.
(23:09):
It is growing more narrow by the day. Another poll
from Concord Opinion Poll found that Democrat Kathy Hochul has
a 16-point lead against Republican Bruce Blakeman. This comes as
a plurality of New Yorkers say the state is on
the wrong track, with only 41 percent saying the state
is on the right track. So naturally, New Yorkers being
the bunch of insane people that they are, they are
deciding to do the same thing over and over again,
(23:30):
hoping for different results. Interesting part of this poll, one,
the governor's race really matters for the down ballot races
because he's got to get close so he can help
Republicans running in Long Island, running upstate. The other interesting
part of this poll, the most unpopular politician in New
York State who's from New York State, not counting Trump,
not counting Vance, none of that stuff. The most unpopular
(23:50):
politician from New York State, Chuck Schumer. Good luck to
you in 2028, Chuck, surviving that Democratic primary. It's not
looking too good. A Harvard-Harris poll. This is not a
poll I love. I don't like Harvard-Harris. I don't really
trust their work, but... What I'm seeing in their poll
(24:12):
is in other polls. That's why I'm repeating. That's why
I'm mentioning it. They found that Kamala Harris has a
massive 46 point lead among black voters in their newest survey.
She is a wide, wide range of support from this coalition.
And it's really important in places like Virginia and South Carolina.
I don't know if she's the leading candidate for the
(24:33):
Democratic nomination in 2028, but I kind of think she
might be. I kind of think she's actually much stronger
this time than people give her credit for. Maybe she'll
burn out. Who knows? It's not definitive. This is her
third run for the White House, but I think she's
got some wind in her sails for the first time
with the black vote. We'll see if that ends up
becoming real. I don't know. It's very early, but there's
(24:56):
a lot going on there. And the last poll I
want to mention is a Gallup poll that found a
record high. 47% of Americans believe labor unions should have
more influence in the U.S., I think it's only going
to get higher as AI becomes a bigger part of
our life. The demand for union and organized labor to
protect jobs will be coming a rallying cry, I predict.
(25:18):
And I would not be surprised to see this number
reach over 50% in the next year or two. I
think this demand for organized labor will become more and
more important as time goes on because of AI. All right,
let's get to Ask Me Anything. That is coming up next.
Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If
you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment,
(25:40):
email me ryan at numbersgamepodcast.com. That's ryan at numbers, plural, numbersgamepodcast.com.
First question comes from Greg. Greg says, this is Greg
from New Jersey. Hey, Greg. I love your episode last
year about your mom, 9-11. God bless her. Thank you
so much. That is still my most listened to episode
of all time. We'll see if the new 9-11 episodes
(26:00):
do better. I hope they do because I really want
these stories to come out next week. Recently, the last
couple of years, I've been trying to find a book
that dealt with 9-11, but nothing dealing with the actual
attacks or politics or terrorists leading up to it. So
since I've been overly slaughtered, sorry, overly saturated with that
from college and just my own reading, I wanted to
(26:21):
know how New Yorkers reacted post 9-11 with ordinary New
Yorkers and Americans having to go on with their lives.
I started watching extremely loud, incredibly close with Tom Hanks,
but for some reason it didn't really stick with me.
And I couldn't finish the movie. I've never seen that movie. Um,
and just recently I got the book falling man by
Don Deli Del Lelio. It's a fictional book dealing with
(26:41):
the attacks of nine 11. Uh, I've never read that
book either. If it's good, let me know. So I
remember I was 14 when the attacks happened in New
York and my mom worked the 97th floor of tower one.
She survived. She was running late to work that day.
Thank God. And she was in the train underneath the
building when the, when the plane hit. Um, uh, So
she felt the shaking. Watch the episode if you've never
(27:02):
heard of it. It's a really good episode between me
and my mom and having a conversation about it that
we never had. I remember certain things extremely vividly. And
by the way, I really hope you listen to next
Wednesday and Friday's episode, the two 9-11 episodes we have
coming out. One is of a woman who worked in
the World Trade Center and was in the 80th floor
(27:23):
of Tower One and walked down 88 flights of stairs.
Her story is just... jaw-dropping and the other is with
a girl who i went to school with grammar school
i've known her since i was four years old and
her dad was a firefighter and died 9-11 and i
(27:43):
never talked to her about 9-11 because i felt kind
of guilty i felt a little guilty that my mom
lived and her dad died So we're going to have
that conversation. And I don't think there's ever been a
conversation from two people, one whose parent lived and another
whose parent died. And there are things I want to
(28:04):
ask her. And I want everyone to know her dad
was an extraordinary man. I want people to know about her,
but I want to have this real conversation. The things
I remember most in the in the weeks and months
that were post 9-11 were like certain things. I could
close my eyes and I could see them. For instance,
there was an express bus near my house that went
from Queens to Manhattan to downtown Manhattan. And on the glass,
(28:26):
there's always glass around express bus to like break up
the wind. It was just wall to wall taped pictures
of people that had gone missing with their parents saying,
if you've seen so-and-so, please call. There were so many
people hopeful that their relative had got hit in the
head and had amnesia. or were in a hospital bed
(28:49):
and they couldn't call anybody and they were in a
coma but they wouldn't make it out of it the
level of people who had so much I mean hope
feels like a bad word but it was just like
it's that gulp in your throat where you're like please
let this be okay and my mom knew so many
people so because like our whole office died so or
(29:12):
basically our whole office died so There were just so
many people that she was just in constant contact with saying,
have you heard that from them? Have you seen them?
And as the days went on, realizing they're not in
a hospital, they didn't have a coma. They're not there.
They're gone. I remember that very, very distinctly. I remember
those pictures like I could close my eyes and see
(29:34):
those pictures. There was a lot of anxiety about another accident.
I don't remember this, but there was a plane crash
in Rockaway, Queens, a few weeks after the crash. And
many people thought it was a terrorist attack. I mean,
it was there was pre-internet, pre-social media. So this was
just gossip and conversation that I'd heard as a teenager.
(29:55):
But that was very much the case. And the last
thing is like, I mean, every cop and firefighter and
construction worker I basically knew in my life was down
there picking things out from rubble. And I remember one
day around Halloween, my dad came by and he was
in his police uniform and he was covered in dust.
(30:16):
It looked like dust. And my mom just got so upset.
And she's like, those are my friend's ashes. I just
remember those things. So it was like, deep sadness, deep anxiety,
and this very quickly passing hope that people you hadn't
heard from had made it out somehow. And there were
(30:38):
a lot of rumors and stories of people being found three, four,
five days later. I don't know if any of them
are true. I don't remember them at all. But there's
stories of people surviving as it came down, like hiding
in their desk and like making it down like 50 floors.
I don't know if any of that's true. But those
stories were like rampant in the days afterwards. So those
(30:58):
are things I remember. I mean, that's how I can
best describe it as a New Yorker from my memory.
And I have a pretty good memory. Yeah, it's terrible.
But I think I'm going to I'm going to do
my best to have a great week next week talking
about them, remembering some people and really having an honest conversation.
So I really hope everyone listens to those two episodes
on Wednesday and on Friday. Monday is Labor Day, so
(31:22):
it's not going to be an episode. Next question comes
from Connor. Connor has been listening since day one. Thank you, Connor.
Worried about your comparisons of Georgia to Virginia as a
Georgia resident. Are things really that bad? Are Republicans doomed
in Georgia this midterm season and beyond? I would be
shocked if Austin lost because it seems like Atlanta Metro
just keeps getting bluer and bluer. They do. Context, I
(31:43):
live in the most conservative part of DeKalb County. It
is still 60-40 damn area. That is rough. I think
the only hope for Georgia is breaking the 92-8 black margin.
Do you agree? I think that's what you've been saying.
Although I know Republicans have been saying money on fire
for this for years. Do I agree with that? Yes
(32:05):
and no. So I will tell you guys a story.
When I was, it was, God, how many years ago
was this now? 20, 2026. It was 2018. I was
in Georgia driving. I was working. I had just finished
working as a journalist and I was driving in Georgia
and And I was in rural Georgia and I was
(32:25):
passing by a house. It was a black man in
rural Georgia with a sign for Governor Kemp. And I
said something along the lines of, like, you're voting for Kemp.
And he said, I ain't letting no fat lesbian from
Atlanta take my gun away. True story. I think that...
(32:50):
I think that... There are a lot of rural black
Georgians who are likely more likely to move towards Republicans
than the metro Atlantic area. I just think those those
near Atlanta is just drawing in so many black people
from other states who are upper class or middle class
(33:14):
who are not southern in their practices. They just live
in Atlanta. And the electorate has just changed tremendously. In 2016,
I believe it was, the non-Black, non-white electorate was 13%.
It used to be 9%. Asians and Latinos are also
(33:38):
moving to the Atlanta suburbs. That's also what's happening. And
the path that Republicans used to have was getting 75%
of the white vote. Well, Republicans are not getting some
of the white vote anymore. So you need to claw
back some support among white voters and win over a
bigger portion of the Latin and Asian community, which is difficult.
(34:02):
It's not easy. Trump did it. And Trump also meant
for the fact that the black turnout was down by
about one percent. And that makes a big difference. Or
maybe two percent is like two percent down. If the
black electorate is over, if the black vote is over
30 percent of the electorate, it's very difficult in Georgia.
But that growing non-black minority in Georgia is what's really
(34:24):
radically changing the state and making it difficult. Is anything lost? No,
nothing is always lost. But it becomes much, much, much
more difficult. And I think that rural blacks in South
Georgia are much more attainable. Also, Republicans have not maxed
out on their rural white vote. The rural white vote
in the north part of Georgia is like 80% Republican.
(34:44):
The rural white vote in the southern part of Georgia
is like 60% Republican. So they need to do a
lot better job at maxing out those rural counties. That's very,
very important. Next question comes from Chris. Chris says, anyhow,
I was watching a North Carolina play Texas Christian University
on ESPN. First college game of the season. I saw
an anti-Talarico ad. It was well-produced. Since I live in Cincinnati,
(35:09):
it was a national ad buy. Do you know anything
about the Truth and Courage Pack? Yes, that is the
Ted Cruz super pack that he put that $ 1. 7 million
that I mentioned the other day in. It's an ad
buy for college football. I guess it was a national
ad buy. I didn't know that. I thought it was
just local. But it's for the Houston and Dallas games.
(35:29):
And I guess most people are going to watch them
in Houston and Dallas. But he was very tactful about
picking out college sports games. And that's why you saw
that there. Next question comes from another Chris. He says,
I heard you doing a podcast episode for 9-11. I
wanted to share a personal story. Big fan of the podcast.
I got my boyfriend to listen to. He's a fan too.
Chris and your boyfriend, thank you both so much. You're right.
(35:50):
My grandmother worked at Bank of America in the first
tower on the 10th floor and was there to work
that day. When the first plane hit, everyone in her
office was confused about what was happening. She remembers putting
her pregnant friend under the desk to protect her. They
all thought it was an earthquake or maybe another bombing.
And then there was a total confusion about what to
do or should they evacuate. I was in fifth grade
(36:12):
and our teacher, Miss Rowland, wheeled in a TV and
put on the news and told us what happened. They
pulled me out of the classroom until my grandmother was okay,
but I really had no concept of what was even happening.
She lost a lot of people she loved, co-workers and friends,
and people she considered family and experienced all the horrors
of the day, the massive panic and all the smoke
and falling debris, people jumping off of buildings, literally leaving
(36:33):
the building when the second plane hit. It was incredibly traumatizing,
and she gets emotional when she talks about it too much,
but she still tells me about it every time I ask.
She actually considers 9-11 to be her second birthday because
she believes God gave her a second chance of life
that day. She says, every time, thank God for the
firefighters and other people who gave their lives that day
to try to save others. Thank you for doing this
(36:54):
podcast episode, this episode in particular, and for telling the
stories of people who sacrificed everything that day to help
other people. It's because of them that my grandmother is
still with me today. That's very beautiful, Chris. I'm so
happy that she is as well. Okay. Last question is
from Jason. Jason has. Hey, Ryan, I listen to most
(37:15):
of your episodes and really enjoy your show. Thank you, Jason.
I look if you're watching. That was a lot, Chris.
That last letter. I look I like looking at the
RCP polling average among other metrics. I'm just obsessed in
general about how many days away from the election are
the polls going. going to be the most accurate and
(37:36):
also does early voting factor into polls in the homestretch.
Thank you for informing and entertaining me, Jason. So I
would say, I mean, the closer the polls are, the
closer we are to election is more accurate. The polls
are because our polls are just snapshots in time. They're
not predictors of the future. They're saying this is how
people feel right now. If everything changes in the next,
(37:57):
you know, month and year, then a month, we're going
to see a massive polling change. in a very short
period of time. And I think that that's really kind
of what you what you want to look at. So
we're just seeing snapshots in time, but they show trends
and trends are very important. When it comes to how
early voting matters, there will be polls. Not all firms
will ask this, but a lot of them will say,
(38:18):
how are you voting? Did you vote already? Are you
planning to vote on Election Day? Are you going to
vote early in person? And Republicans are typically when the
in-person and on election day and Democrats just massive landslide
for the mail-in ballots. And that's how you'll see that.
And they'll try to weigh those those votes. And I mean,
it's not super important for the polls, but it's just
(38:38):
kind of an insight to how people are voting, which
parties are polling, which ways and voting and how they're
tending to vote. But that's really all that that is.
So I guess you probably wouldn't wait till like late
mid to late October for which is not that long
away for to see those to see those polling numbers
kind of come to fruition. All right, guys, that's it
for this episode. Happy Friday. Hope you have a great
(38:59):
Labor Day weekend. If you like this podcast, please like
and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, YouTube, wherever
you get this podcast. Give me a five star review
if you like it and make sure you're back here
next week. We're gonna have a great week. Talk to
you guys soon.
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