It's a Numbers Game: Republicans Are in Trouble: Ryan Girdusky’s 32-Day Midterm Warning

Ryan Girdusky breaks down the political warning signs facing Republicans with just 32 days until the midterm elections.

Ryan examines polling and voter sentiment surrounding President Donald Trump, traditional Republican voters, the economy, inflation, healthcare costs, immigration, artificial intelligence, taxes, Social Security, and the growing appeal of economic populism. He argues that Republicans in traditionally safe red states and districts can no longer assume victory—and need to campaign aggressively and address the economic concerns affecting voters.

Ryan also makes the case for what he views as the major accomplishments of the Trump administration and Republican Congress, including actions on the southern border, immigration, crime, DEI, prescription drug costs, manufacturing, energy, taxes, and the child tax credit.

Plus, Ryan answers listener questions about the Texas Senate race, James Talarico, Ken Paxton, black voter turnout in Texas, John Cornyn voters, and whether Republicans could face a repeat of past Senate election upsets.

Subscribe to It’s a Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky for polling analysis, election data, political trends, and the numbers shaping the 2026 midterm elections.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Groduski. Thank
you guys for being here. Happy Friday, everyone. We are
32 days to the midterm elections. It's a little more
than a month away, but we're getting right there. I
have some really interesting data to go over with you
and also a narrative that I want to address that
Republicans should be doing. I got a very interesting text

(00:21):
message over the week from Brent Buchanan. He is a pollster.
He's been on the show before. And he said that
the what a lot of Republicans in these red states
are dealing with right now is that traditional Republicans, those
not part of the MAGA base, really have fallen out
of love with President Trump. He gave me some numbers

(00:43):
from his polling firm, which is Signal. It's a pretty
good polling firm. And he's found that among traditional Republicans,
Trump's net favorability has fallen from plus 75 to plus 53.
That 25% drop off, about 22% drop off, are Republicans
who are unsure if they want to vote. They're unsure

(01:05):
if they want to be part of it anymore. There's
fallout from the war in Iran. There's fallout from high
gas prices. There's fallout from high interest rates, from importing beef,
just a number of different things that they're really disappointed
with the president about while he talks about, you know,
ballrooms and arches. And he's just not having the same
conversation that everyone else is. And I was talking to

(01:26):
a friend of mine who is a consultant in Alabama.
And he said, Brian, things have gotten so bad that
Trump is underwater in Alabama among our voters that he
is more unpopular than he is popular. He said he
expects in Alabama half a dozen legislative seats to go
Democrat and for them to possibly win a statewide office
for the first time in two decades. There's different things

(01:50):
happening depending on what part of the country you're in
for Republican candidates. So the problem for Republican candidates in
blue states, they're simply outnumbered, right? States like New York,
states like Colorado, they have become hubs of purple-haired they-thems.
States like California, states like Minnesota have imported too many
third-worlders that vote overwhelmingly Democratic. So it's just a double

(02:14):
whammy for Republicans in blue states, even ones who are
campaigning very, very aggressively. Then there are Republicans in purple
districts and in purple states, and those are, and when
I say states, I should have said red-blue districts as well.
Then there's those Republicans in purple states and purple districts.
They have the problem of so much of whether they

(02:34):
live or die is based off of national trends, things
they really don't have much control over, and very few
are able to kind of ride past that. But the
problem for Republicans in red states and red districts, the
ones who are in danger of losing, they forgot how

(02:57):
to campaign. They have become so comfortable with winning a
primary and then the election's over, which you can do
in most parts of this country. You win a primary,
either a Democrat or Republican, you don't have to campaign anymore.
You're essentially... really only ever campaigning to 10 to 15

(03:17):
percent of the voting population, given depending on how high
the primary turnout is. That's really it. So for these
Republicans in these uber safe Trump plus 10, Trump plus
15 districts, they forgot how to campaign. They don't remember.
And it's not just this cycle has been the case,
but it's been like this for cycles. And in this cycle,

(03:37):
in this area where a generic ballot is looking very
close to Democrat plus double digit, You cannot take that
for granted. Now, allegedly a handful of consultants have been
telling me in places like Texas, they have been saying
to their clients, you need to go campaign. You need
a campaign. You need a door knock. You need to

(03:58):
put out mailers and phone bank and run an actual campaign,
do town halls, do constituent services, make sure your constituent
service scheme is like of the utmost importance of top
tier talent. You need to be bragging about how much
money you bring back to the district. You need to
be doing all those things, even in a place like Texas,

(04:19):
even in a place like Florida in an election year
like this. And Texas and Florida have an issue where,
especially in Texas, you have a growing Latino population. Latinos
in Texas vote typically in most years. They vote 10
to 15 percent more Democrat than Republican and a growing

(04:39):
population of Latinos. Immigrants, immigrants in parts of Texas, like
Indian immigrants, they vote three to one or four to
one Democrat. Those votes are accumulating, not even to mention
any Californians who have moved there. I think a lot
of the Californians have been Republican, but we don't know
because Texas, like other states, doesn't register voters by party.

(04:59):
My biggest, biggest gripe with how some states operate is
they don't register voters by party. So we don't actually know.
We just know primary turnout. And in a primary right
now in Texas, In this year, more Democrats showed up
than Republicans, but you're importing Democrats. So yes, you have
to fight harder to make sure you can win. This

(05:22):
is a special type of environment. You all need to
act like you're Susan Collins, who has never missed a vote,
who has amazing constituent services, and who campaigns in the
state like a madwoman. But that's how you survive in
a Democrat plus nine state. You are your own person.
You are outside the party. You're bigger than the party.

(05:45):
And it's it's these red states. It's these red districts
where Republicans are going to lose majorities. And if you
think about it, actually, if you think of what's competitive,
what's open in blue states, Democrats may net a single seat.
I mean, outside of what California redistricted, they may net

(06:06):
one single seat. But it's in the red states. It's
in the red districts. It's in the purple districts that
you will see the mass losses. And there are, of course,
things you can't control. Federal Reserve raising interest rate, can't control.
Trump's decision to go to war with Iran, you can't control.
But what you can control is the messaging. And you

(06:30):
can control what you are advancing. And I think for
a lot of Republicans in Congress, They do not understand
the moment. And the moment is we are in an
especially high economic populist time in our country. Our politics
are moving there. There was a poll from the Wall

(06:51):
Street Journal released over the week that shows how strong
the economic populist mood in this country is right now.
I have to imagine, by the way, when the poll
results came in in the Wall Street Journal, The editorial
team read them and started screaming, like breathing into a
brown paper bag, screaming into their pillow. They're like, this

(07:12):
is awful. But I don't think that it's necessarily wrong.
These are pretty good pollsters. It's done by National Research, Inc.
and Impact, Inc. I know the Democratic firm, I'm not
really familiar with the Republican firm, but it's a bipartisan
conducted poll. The poll found that Democrats have been eight
pointly in the generic ballot, which I would have said
two months ago it was a horrible number. Now it's

(07:33):
not that bad. Other people are like, it's D plus 15,
D plus 8, which is pretty bad. Donald Trump has
an overall net favorability rating of negative 24. J.D. Vance's
net favorability rating is negative 13. That is, I told
you guys last time, last episode, I think the whole Warhawks-

(07:56):
Screaming in the media how J.D. was against the war
ended up helping him, which is why he's nine points
better than Trump is right now. Democratic Socialists of America
have a favorability of negative 28. The MAGA movement of
negative 21. AOC is at negative 13. Zorah Mondani is
negative 10. But let's talk about policy. I just want
to give you guys a highlight. They ask specific policy

(08:18):
questions related to populist issues. Listen to these answers. Do
you support passing Medicare for all? 59% of Americans said yes. 36%
said no. 41% of Americans said it's their top priority.
Requiring insurance companies to cover services and medicines prescribed by doctors. 88%

(08:40):
said yes. 8% said no. Passing a ban on surprise
medical bills. 90% said yes. 7% said no. Pausing the
development of artificial intelligence. 63% said yes. 16% said no. 38%
said it's their most important issue. Giving the federal government ownership,

(09:01):
partial ownership of AI companies, 21% said yes. 66% said no. Ironically,
a position both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are championing.
Raising the minimum wage to $ 20 an hour, 57% said yes. 38%
said no. Ending U.S. military aid to Israel, 58% said yes, 35%

(09:23):
said no. Implementing a federal tax on people with over
$ 1 billion net worth, 61% said yes, 38% said no.
Raising federal taxes on people who make more than a
million dollars a year, 66% said yes, 31% said no.
Taxing luxury properties like vacation homes, 59% said yes, 36%

(09:44):
said no. Capping childcare costs for the working families. I
don't know what that means. I'm sure some of you
are saying, what does that mean? I don't know either. 74%
said yes. 21% said no. Limiting rent increases to 5%.
above the inflation rate per year. 65% said yes. 28%

(10:04):
said no. Capping the maximum prices for prescription drugs. 87%
said yes. 10% said no. Opting government run grocery stores
to sell discount food. 37% said yes, 58% said no.
That and the AI company, I will get back to.
Expanding the size of the Supreme Court, 39% said yes, 53%

(10:27):
said no. Capping credit card interest rates at 10%, 79%
said yes, 15% said no. Ending government subsidies on solar
and wind energy, 42% said yes, 52% said no. Deploying
the National Guard to sanctuary cities, also don't know what
that would do, no idea. 43% said yes. 52% said no.

(10:48):
Maintaining ICE program of detaining and arresting people of being
in the country illegally. 48% said yes. 50% said no.
Ending automatic citizenship, also known as birthright citizenship, for the
children of people in the country illegally. 47% said yes. 50%
said no. Stopping illegal immigration at the border. 79% said yes. 19%

(11:09):
said no. By the way, all of these questions prove
what I have said over and over and over again.
Immigration is not the issue hurting President Trump. It is
not the issue hurting the Republican Party. They should not
waver on it. Wall-to-wall million hours of negative coverage on

(11:32):
every major media site, all social media site is only 50-50,
shows Americans, even despite everything that's happened, do not want
us to go back to Joe Biden's immigration policy. Okay,
last few questions. Withdrawing the U.S. from NATO military alliance, 30%
said yes, 59% said no. Running a government website to

(11:53):
offer discount prices for prescription drugs. 73% said yes, 20%
said no. Increasing funding for law enforcement. 66% said yes, 29%
said no. Requiring voters to show photo ID as that
they are only registered as U.S. citizens when they vote. 72%
said yes, 26% said no. Eliminating mail-in ballots in elections

(12:16):
so everyone votes in person. 47% said yes, 51% said no.
Raising social security taxes on high earners to extend the
solvency of the program. 66% said yes. 27% said no.
Maintaining and expanding tariffs on trading partners, including Canada. 40%
said yes. 56% said no. Last two. Restricting large institutional

(12:39):
investors from buying large numbers of single-family homes in an
effort to cut the price. 75% said yes. 18% said no.
Which is... Which of your positions is the closest when
it comes to AI development? 57% said they want the
government to take immediate steps to regulate and place safeguards
for AI because tech companies cannot be trusted to make

(13:00):
sure their products are safe and don't create problems for society.
I want all the free market capitalists who just heard
that litany of polls to take a breath. What you
are seeing from the American public is not a rush
to embrace socialism, to embrace the DSA. They don't want
to expand the Supreme Court. They don't want to abolish

(13:23):
ICE overall. They don't want, it's a 50-50 issue, but
they don't want illegals pouring through the borders. They don't
want to take over grocery stores. They don't want to
have the government running AI companies. They don't want socialism.
What they want, though, is a break. Their paychecks are
not going far enough. Now, do they realize that it's

(13:45):
because of inflation caused by overspending by the government? Probably not, right?
That is not a tangible concern to a lot of people.
That is a concern that if you have a degree
and you're really involved and you read Thomas Sowell or
you read a conservative intellectual on economic policy, you probably understand.

(14:06):
For the rest of them, no, they don't really know that.
but you have to address those tangible concerns. And the
thing with AI, I will say this, I told this
to an AI lobbyist just today, actually. They are not
at the point of like, let's burn it down now.
They want regulations and they want the AI industry to

(14:26):
concede regulations to protect Americans from the industry. They are
at burn it down with the healthcare industry though, because
the healthcare industry refused for decades, to make concessions to
the American public. And then you get to a point,
a boiling point, where they cannot take it anymore. I

(14:49):
know what I pay in health insurance is astronomical. I'm
actually going to reduce my plan because it's too expensive.
And that's with someone who makes a good living. I
know what I pay for my employees. That's extremely high
for both them and I, because I pay part of
their health insurance. But it is extraordinarily expensive. And you

(15:10):
still have to pay for prescription drugs. And you still
have to pay for co-pays. And you have to find
a specialist. It is insane. And the solution may be
free market principles. I understand that. But that is not
a term most people understand. You have to make policy
tangible to their lives where they can close their eyes

(15:32):
and they could see it. You close your eyes, you
know what build a wall looks like. Close your eyes.
You know what Medicare for all looks like. Close your eyes.
You know what, I don't know, free healthcare looks like.
Name another really powerful policy that has been offered by
a Democrat who has one office. It's tangible. It's something

(15:54):
you can easily understand. Not just Democrat, any politician. Make
it simple and relatable to people's lives. And that means sometimes,
You have to ignore policies that have been offered by
the Republican Party for 50-something years. If we have to
solve the Social Security crisis, which is coming upon us

(16:17):
to make sure that seniors get Social Security checks that
prevent them from going into poverty, we probably have to
raise taxes. We do. We probably have to raise taxes
to protect Social Security. Start screaming now, get it out
of your system. But once people believe that is okay,
we can move on to the next thing. Once we believe,
and then reform the system to create a lockbox, to

(16:39):
create savings interest rates, to move towards a more private
system where you can invest some of your social security
check into the market, and you'll make more wealth over
longer periods of time. But guarantee the minimum so you
understand it. Don't treat billionaires and now trillionaires like they're
mom and pop businesses, like they're all the same as us.

(17:01):
I'm going to quote something that Lincoln said in an
address to the country in 1862. We can succeed only
by concert. It's not can we imagine it better, but
can we do better? Dogmas of the quiet past are
inadequate for the story present. The occasion is piled high
with difficulty and we must rise with the occasion. As
our case is new, we must think anew and act anew.

(17:24):
That is so important to saving the Republican Party right now.
So many of you have been following whatever Trump has
been doing, whatever Trump has been saying. And I understand
you don't want to upset a man with huge approvals
among the MAGA base. However, what is the solution on
health care? What is the solution on all of these things?

(17:47):
You cannot pretend these are issues that just don't exist.
They do. Americans don't want socialism yet. They want an
answer to their wallet. That comes with economic populism to
a certain degree. You don't have to go full tilt boogie. Just,
you know, you have to address certain concerns. Healthcare, food prices, inflation.

(18:13):
You have to. There's no way about it. And that
comes with getting Congress to spend less money. That comes
with expanding options, and that comes with addressing the concerns,
the immediate concerns that Americans have. You can do all three.
It's possible, but we need leadership to do it. That's

(18:34):
the issue going forward. That's where we are in the
country 32 days out from the midterm elections. Let's talk
about messaging Republicans should be doing right now as far
as the accomplishments of the term administration and why you
Even if you are a traditional Republican, who's very angry
at Trump right now and hates the gas prices, why
you should vote Republican in 32 days. That's coming up next.

(19:00):
Americans are down on president Trump. And to a certain degree,
I completely understand where you're, where you're coming from. Food
prices are high. Interest rates are high. Your dollar doesn't
go as far. And the warning ran is a big mistake. However,
you should still vote Republican this November election. Remember. There
are wins. There are serious wins over the last two years.

(19:21):
I know sometimes it's hard to parse through all of
the noise, but there are wins that President Trump has
delivered and the Republican Congress has delivered over the last
two years that need to be remembered by somebody who
needs to be convinced to get off the couch. Let's
talk about President Trump and President Trump only, things that
he has done outside of Congress. First and foremost, he

(19:42):
sealed the southern border. I know it's easy to forget
images of hundreds of thousands of people pouring across the
border and demanding everything. That happened 30 months ago. That
was 30 months ago. And President Trump fixed it overnight.
Virtually no illegal immigrants have come into this country since
he's been president. A massive victory, the first time the

(20:05):
southern border has been secure in my lifetime, nearly 40 years.
And he did it by himself, executive action, no new laws.
He ended a catch and release, which is so important.
We weren't bringing illegals here, let them settle in this country,
and then in 10 years they get a court date. Nope,
they had to wait in Mexico. He's built 200 miles
of his border wall with 750 more under construction. He

(20:26):
ended temporary protective status for 12 countries, a system that
is totally abused in this country where you're supposed to
get temporary asylum for a year or six months, whatever.
There's an earthquake at home and illegal aliens who are
already living in this country received it. Even though they
weren't even in the place where there was an earthquake
or a natural disaster. And it lasted for over a decade.

(20:49):
It is an entirely abused system He put an end
to it, the president alone. He increased fees on H-1B
visa holders, which was a crackdown on cheap labor coming
in to displace American workers. He did that and did
that alone. Very big win. He paused visas for 75
countries with known terrorist connections and known terrorist activities. Immigration

(21:12):
from Muslim-majority countries has decreased by 93% since he's become president. 93%.
And I know not all Muslims are terrorists. That is
100 percent the truth. But there is a big, big,
big problem in Muslim majority countries where they look at

(21:33):
America as a problem, as Jews as a problem, as
gay people as a problem, as women as a problem.
And I'm sorry if you don't want Sharia law in America.
You have to stop bringing in people in this country
who want Sharia law to come to America. He closed
down gender affirming care centers everywhere. Forty different hospitals no
longer do procedures or give medical devices and medical prescription

(21:59):
pills for minors who say at seven years old they're
supposed to be a boy or a girl when they
are not and changing their life forever. Forty of them
stopped because of President Trump. He abolished DEI in the
federal offices. He's suing universities for continuing to discriminate against
white and Asian applicants. He ended sex and race preferences
when it comes to federal contracting. So important. If a

(22:21):
man does a job better than a woman, he should
get the job. If a white man does a job
better and offers a federal contract better, he should get
the job. It was pure discrimination against white men. And
he ended that. He abolished DEI in the military. The FBI...
Under Kash Patel, and I have been very critical of

(22:43):
Kash Patel over many, many times, but 54,000 violent criminals
were arrested in the less than two years, including all
top 10 members of the top 10 FBI most wanted.
They caught them all. He launched Operation Spring Cleaning, arresting
1,100 people and seizing 1,000 firearms and 2,700 pounds of narcotics.

(23:06):
He is focused in on high crime cities like Memphis
to create task force to reduce crime. Memphis' murder rate
has fallen 43% in a single year, violent crime by 20%.
So much of our housing crisis is related to people.
There's empty homes in neighborhoods people do not want to

(23:26):
live in because the neighborhoods are too dangerous. Get the
criminals off the street, the houses become accessible, and we
solve part of our housing crisis. The DEA has seized
45 million fentanyl pills and 200,000 kilograms of cocaine, 1,100
of heroin. I don't know why someone wrote this for
me in kilograms. I asked someone to get me some
data and they wrote it in kilograms. Like, I know

(23:47):
what a kilogram is. I'm American. Anyway, overall drug deaths
fell by 14%. They released the 2025 to 2030 dietary
guidelines on food and nutrition. And guess what? You shouldn't
be having more carbs than meat and dairy and vegetables.
He did a federal initiative to phase out six widely
used petroleum-based synthetic food dyes, red 40, yellow five, yellow six,

(24:11):
blue one, blue two, and green three. This is so important.
These are products that should not be in our food
that are not allowed in EU foods. He restored the
presidential fitness test. He doubled the funding for childhood cancer.
He's expanded access to IVF. He launched TrumpRx to provide
access to discounted prescription drugs. and secured most favored nation

(24:33):
for drug pricing with 26 pharmaceutical manufacturing to cover 89%
of brand drugs by September 2026. So you're just starting
to see that right now. And also, after 10 months
of losing manufacturing jobs, we are on the eighth straight
month of gaining manufacturing jobs. That is all really, really,

(24:55):
really important stuff. He's also putting initiatives out there to
get more nuclear energy increased oil production, increased petroleum production,
executive orders over keeping men out of women's sports. These
are massive goals. Also the military recruiting. Remember under Biden,
we couldn't meet our military recruiting. We're now exceeding that again.

(25:16):
Amazing what happens when you're not doing commercials about, you know,
pride flags and finding your true self in military recruitment.
It is crazy what was going on under Biden, under
the Democrats. And creating international trade agreements, which I know
in light of all the tariffs, you may lose sight
of that, but yes, he's, he's gotten international trade agreements,

(25:38):
places like the EU to invest more money in manufacturing
and development. That's all really important. And the Republican Congress
passed the Lake and Riley act, making it easier to
pour illegal aliens. Did this take it down act for, uh,
AI to do deep fakes that in, in a sexual manner,
especially for minors is a big deal. The Secure America Act,

(26:02):
$ 70 billion for deporting illegal aliens, and the problem is
that much. Permanently increasing the child tax credit. Deductions for
qualified tips for $ 25, 000 of income. Qualified deduction in overtime
for $ 12, 500. Salt for people who live in blue states
or purple states with high local tax burdens. President Trump,

(26:24):
fall for you. Places like Mike Lawler's district, places like
Tom Suozzi's district. Tom Suozzi voted against that in New
York three and President Trump pushed over the finish line.
He created deductions for interest on qualifying for loans for
new American assembled vehicles. He created Trump accounts for children.
This is so important. A thousand dollars of investment for
a newborn child to create private wealth. And that way

(26:46):
you don't wait behind the lines. That was the Republican
Congress that did that. New incentives for rural communities, limiting
Medicare eligibility for certain categories for people, for non-citizens who
are legally in this country so they can't game the system.
Made bronze and catastrophic healthcare plans for healthcare savings accounts
and reduced the federal civilian workforce. Republicans have been promising

(27:07):
to reduce the civilian workforce in this country, going back
to Richard Nixon. And no one's done it besides Donald
Trump in this Republican Congress. It is so important to
remember when sometimes. I know in the moment you say, man,
he made a mistake and I ran. Man, gas prices
are high. Man, food prices are high. I'm not going

(27:29):
to go vote. I understand that 100% of the way.
I am not delusional. And I think that saying that
you're not impacted by what's going on is a mistake
or that you should just buckle up and afford it.
People are barely getting by. Trust me, I understand. However,
the insanity. The true insanity about child affirming gender care,

(27:51):
about admitting millions of people to illegally enter our country
to game the system, allowing billions of dollars into into
securing our border. Those are all things that really matter.
Arresting and reducing crime, working to reduce crime that happened
started before Trump. It's also increased during Trump's presidency. But

(28:13):
having the FBI really focus on all those initiatives, really, really,
really essential. I know the noise is loud. I know
the moment isn't great. We have a lot of wins
behind our back. If you think that Democrats are going
to be anything better than what they were under Joe Biden,

(28:33):
you are mistaken. Do not let your hatred for Donald
Trump or your disappointment in Donald Trump in the moment
to Republican traditional Republican voters misguide your opinions that what
Democrats are going to be offered will be anything less
than what we saw. And that doesn't even mention if

(28:54):
Samuel Alito or Clarence Thomas or any of the Supreme
Court justices have to retire or or, God forbid, die
in the next two years. If you think we're going
to get anything close to the semblance of wins that
we got from the Supreme Court over the last two years,
if Democrats get control of the court, you're also extremely mistaken.

(29:15):
They do not care that public opinion is against expanding
the Supreme Court at all. It's about power for the
sake of power. I know that's true for both parties
in some extent, but never like this where it's about
to remake the entire government like we have never seen it.
If you are a traditional Republican... Too much is on
the line, too many wins have been had. Do not

(29:37):
fail in this moment not to vote. It is important.
If you live in Texas and you don't like Ken Paxton, man,
they should just throw get drunk and vote for Ken
Paxton parties. You gotta get over the finish line right now.
There is too much wins that we are ignoring, too
much on the line for the future. So remember that.

(29:58):
32 days from today. Ask Me Anything is coming up next.
Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If
you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment,
email me Ryan at numbersgamepodcast.com. That's Ryan at numbers, plural numbersgamepodcast.com.
Love this part of the show. First question comes from Catherine.
This can be an Ask Me Anything she writes. Well,
it is an Ask Me Anything. I live in Houston, Texas,

(30:20):
follow local politics here closely, and I think a good
polling of Democrats is missing the big low enthusiasm among
Black voters. None of the statewide Democrat candidates are Black.
Jasmine Krakow is openly not campaigning for Tallarico, also did
not include his name on an endorsement list. When I
see Tallarico and Hinoza, I think it's her last name,
the woman running for governor, events, crowds do not have

(30:41):
many Black people. It seems like Tallarico's campaign has built
an infrastructure that does not include the political machines of
Dallas and Houston, where local Black electeds and pastor community
leaders do a lot of work for turning out voters. Finally,
there's one disastrous town hall early this summer with Tallarico.
I remember that in Houston, they were not friendly to
him at all. Do you have any data on how
motivated Black Texans are in the fall and whether low

(31:04):
Black turnout could help tip the election towards Republicans? So
Black turnout is not that high, but it is overall
higher than average. So what they're doing is a lot
of these polls are looking at past primary voting, and
a lot of these Black voters are They're always voting.
So is low propensity black turnout in Texas going to

(31:25):
be high? I don't know. We don't really have too
much data on that. I will say what we do
have data on is that right now in three of
the most recent polling in Emerson, YouGov, and Telemundo, Paxton
is earning between 10% to 12% of the black vote,
which is wherever Republican is. Tallarico is getting between 87%
to 83% of the black support. That's a little lower
than average. If it's around 85 percent, Tallarico probably left

(31:50):
five points on the board. But the black vote, you're
talking about maybe a half a point overall if that happens.
You're not the statewide vote. You're not talking about it.
I mean, if it's a very close election, maybe half
a point is enough. But you're talking about maybe half
a point, maybe less than that, maybe a third of
a point. in the overall statewide vote on low participation
and people who are voting either against Tallarico or third

(32:12):
party or for Paxton, it's very, very, very marginal. And
if the Latino vote was in the same boat as
the Black vote, we would have a different story right
now because there's enough Latinos. But it's not high enough.
And I just think that these Black pastors are going
to do what they can. The big problem for the
Black vote nationwide is that Black voters under 40 are

(32:34):
increasingly not belonging to Black churches. So the whole souls
to the polls events that happen nationwide to get black
voters out, it doesn't do what it used to do
because black people, like all other people, are less religious
than they used to be. And that's just, that's kind
of it is what it is. Next question comes from Doug.
Doug writes, hi, Ryan. Glad you and Jack Posobiec are

(32:55):
doing a deep dive on the zebra killers. We did
that a couple of episodes ago last week. Check it
out if you missed it. A serial killer you almost
certainly never heard of that terrorized Kansas City, Missouri a
decade ago. A black man named Frederick Des Moines Scott
murdered at least six white people on a hiking trail
between 2016 and 2017. Naturally, the national media ignored the story,

(33:15):
and the local Kansas City media downplayed the racial angle,
even though Scott once said that he wanted to shoot
up a school and kill all white people. The Kansas
City Star and KC Police laughably claimed that they didn't
know the killings were racially motivated. That is wild. I
have not heard of this story before. The only journalist
who covered these killings, honestly, was Jack Cashel. who's based

(33:37):
in KC, just figured I'd give you the tip in
case even the most right of center media haven't heard
of it. That's great. Yeah, you know what? I didn't
get tons of positive interest in the true crime story,
so I kind of don't know if I want to
do another one. I think after the election, between the
election and Christmas time, I might do some true crime

(33:58):
stuff because there'll be less election stuff to analyze. I
might go and do another true crime episode there. But
that's an important one. There's another one out in Tennessee,
which was two of the most horrific, brutal murders I've
ever heard of that happened maybe like 20 years ago
to a couple in Tennessee in Knoxville. I think it
was Knoxville or Chattanooga. It was one of the two.

(34:19):
And I don't have all the details in front of me,
so I can't really go into depth with it. But
it is insane that we are a country obsessed with
true crime right now. There might be a social contagion
with true crime among women that is actually not healthy.
And at the same time, when it is like a
black serial killer who's doing racially motivated murders, I'm not
saying that happens all the time, but it happens. We

(34:41):
just pretend it doesn't exist like overall. And I think
it's important to say, oh, yeah, this happens existed. I
think the biggest serial killer or worst serial killer in
the United States was an immigrant from Nigeria, I want
to say, or Kenya. He was a nurse and he
was killing elderly, mostly white people in Texas. I think
he killed like 40 of them before he was caught.

(35:02):
Never mentioned the worst serial killer in America. Never mentioned
the 21st century. Last question for the podcast today comes
from Robert. Robert writes, my name is Robert from Indianapolis.
Big fan of yours. My question is regarding the similarities
between Ken Paxton race and Richard Murdoch Senate race in 2012.
Murdoch destroyed Rich Lugar in the primary. It was defeated

(35:24):
by Joe Donnelly in the general. Lugar has been a
senator for 36 years and was very well liked, but
painted as out of touch with Indiana and didn't even
have a home here. I campaigned for Murdoch and was
begging Lugar voters to vote for Murdoch, but they didn't,
and it cost them the election. I am wondering if
you see the same thing happening in Texas. Do you
see Cornyn voters staying home or worse, voting for Tallarico? Yeah,

(35:46):
the Murdoch story was interesting because it was happening at
the same time that in Missouri, Todd Akin was talking
about abortion. And then I think Murdoch also said something
about abortion that was, I don't know what Murdoch said now,
but I think, was he the one, I believe he
was the one who said that you couldn't get pregnant
if you were raped? Something along those lines, something that

(36:07):
was factually inaccurate and deeply offensive. And that really hurt
him quite a bit. And Lugar was way too liberal
for the state, way, way, way too liberal for the state.
super popular Republican had been there for a million years,
but was too old to hold on. Is he even
still alive? I actually look up if Dick Lugar is

(36:27):
still alive. He was way too old to be in that,
to be a Senator. And these, these guys, like they
just got to like, take a breath, John Cornyn, you're
76 years old. I mean, does anyone miss you at home?
Does anyone say where's Papa? When is he coming back? Like,
I mean, is, do you have a dog? Anybody who
says like, I should be home for them. I mean,

(36:49):
Give it a rest after a while. I think there
are a number of Cornyn supporters voting for Tallarico or
not voting. And that is the margin of winning and
losing in Texas is do Cornyn supporters just vote for Paxton?
I have a good friend of mine who edits my
clips for me. And he said he convinced his grandma
to just like close your eyes, vote for Paxton. You

(37:11):
got to do it. But that's what really has to happen.
You've got to take these people kicking and screaming sometimes
and say, no, you need to vote for Ken Paxton.
He's also a man of a particular age. I don't
presume he was going to be there for very long,
but James Tallarico will be there for decades if he can.
Think of it like that. If you don't like Ken Paxton,
he's I think 65, 64. He may not be there
for more than one term or maybe two at the most.

(37:34):
Tallarico will never leave. So you'll have decades of a Democrat. Well,
you have a Republican you don't like maybe for one
term and you kick him out. That's the choice you
make right now for all these moderate Republicans, for all
these John Cornyn supporters. So, yeah. That is true. And
it could very well happen. What happened in Indiana could
be happening in Texas. So you're right on the money, Robert.
That is this episode of the podcast. Please like and

(37:56):
subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or on YouTube,
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give me a five-star review. It really helps get the
podcast out there. Talk to you guys on Monday. Have
a great weekend.