May 6, 2026 • 40 mins
On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky breaks down the real numbers behind Republicans’ fight to hold the House in 2026 — and why the GOP’s chances may be stronger than the media narrative suggests. From explosive redistricting battles in Florida, Virginia, Alabama, Tennessee and Louisiana to key swing districts in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa and Arizona, Ryan explains the exact electoral math that could decide control of Congress.
He also dives into the legal fights over congressional maps, the impact of Trump-backed districts, vulnerable Republican incumbents, Democratic pickup opportunities, and how changing demographics are reshaping America’s political battlefield. Plus, Ryan answers listener questions on NAFTA, China, immigration, Trump’s rise, political violence statistics, and whether America should rethink immigration policy altogether.
And yes — Ryan also shares his viral Italian broccoli pasta and lemon chicken recipe during Ask Me Anything. Politics, strategy, and pasta all in one episode.
Follow Clay & Buck on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuck
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome back to It's the Numbers Game with Ryan Gridowski.
I want to start by saying two things. One, give
a moment of a moment to honor the great memory
of Spirit Airline. And the thousands of Instagram reels that
filled my page of people throwing luggage out the window
(00:22):
or you know, getting into fistfights. They were really great entertainment. Also,
I've talked a lot of this podcasts of personal victories.
I made a meal the other day that was phenomenal.
I'm going to talk about it during the Ask Me
Anything segment because I know most people are heard for
politics and not for any of my big bag of bs.
(00:42):
But this was phenomenal, and some people do like my
Italian recipes, my Italian food. I'm going to give you
guys that at the end of the episode. Okay, let's
get into the numbers of how Republicans can win the
majority in the House of Representatives in November. I know
everyone's already assumed it's a bygone conclusion. It's too far fetched.
We can't win. It's going to be a twenty eighteen blowout.
(01:05):
I've been breaking down the numbers and they're not as
bad as people think. There are, there are a lot
of ifs, there's a lot that could change, and a
lot of things do change from now until election day.
But it's not as big a reach as even I
thought it was. So let's first get into the redistricting fight,
because a lot is centered on the redistricting fight of
what's going on with these new congressional districts. Since the
(01:27):
Supreme Court ruled against race based redistricting, and remember the
DOJ said they're going to enforce lawsuits against race based redistricting,
there's been a lot of movements, mostly in the Southern states,
ahead of the November election. Now there's a big problem
in the sense that there's time. And this is what
I heard in DC circles was that the liberal justices
(01:48):
were taking such a long time to deliberate to give
their opinions on the case because they wanted to hold
it up as long as possible to give Republican states
as little time as pots to redistrict ahead of the midterms.
And this is, by the way, I'm not like breaking news.
This was told wildly throughout Washington, d C. Now, the
(02:09):
crazy thing is going into this. Almost all the Southern
states have governors who cannot run for reelection right. Governors
in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, they're all set
to retire this year, so part of them are looking
at this as I'm going to build my legacy that
(02:30):
I'm for my idea of fairness. I'm going to get
a nice up in the New York Times when I die,
the obituary from established media are going to say I
stood up for black majority districts, or they're saying my
legacy will be the I delivered Republicans more congressional districts.
It's a very unusual thing because there's not as much
political pressure that can be applied to a governor who
(02:52):
is retiring as the one who needs to run for
reelection in the future. And we're seeing this in this redistricting,
you know, escape what's going on right now. First of all,
let's look with the states that are not redistioncing that
said off the top, I'm not redistricting Georgia being number one,
Georgia could redistrict one to two seats in Republicans favor
predominantly one the one in South Georgia for sure, and
(03:16):
Brian Kemp has said no obviously Brian Kemp. Anyone who
follows and who knows Brian Kemp is not a big
fan of Donald Trump. Stalin Trump's not a big fan
of Brian Kemp. Trump tried to primary Camp. Kemp obviously
came out as a big victor, but there is no
love lost between the two of them. But he has
said flat out I'm not redistricting, so take those seats.
That seats are two seats off the table. Others state
(03:36):
that's not redistrict is South Carolina. South Carolina, they have
one predominantly black district which is which is where Jim
Clyburn is the representative. Now, for those who are know,
Jim Clyburn was the head of was in Democratic leadership
for a long time. Whenever like Nancy Pelosis to take
those pictures with like house Democratic leadership, he was the older,
(03:56):
bald black gentleman next to Nancy Pelosi all the time.
He is a powerhouse in South Carolina. He is the
Democratic Party of South Carolina and he most famously is
the reason that Joe Biden won the nomination in twenty twenty.
He was that he changed the trajectory of Biden's losing
campaign because of his endorsement, Biden won South Carolina, then
(04:21):
he won more southern states. The black vote came for him,
and that's after he got obliterated in Iowa and New
Hampshire and Nevada, and people were like, well, it's kind
of over for Joe. Clyburn has immense political power, and
even in the Democratic Party, even with Nancy Pelosi retiring
and all the rest of them kind of leaving, he
still wields a lot of power and a lot of
power for the state. And I think maybe a calculation
(04:42):
could be that they want him there in Congress in
case they need money for the state and the Democrats
of the House or whatnot. Anyway, so Henry McMasters, according
to the Post Courier, says he is not redistracting, and
I kind of believe that that's where they, like, let's
talk about the places that are redistriing, pending some lawsuits.
First of Tennessee, I'm actually surprised Tennessee only has one
(05:03):
Democrat district, one black majority district. It is the district
in Memphis. If you look at a map of Tennessee, right,
it all looks red, ruby, red. There's one little, tiny
little spot that is where there's the democratic district. It's
kind of even hard to redistrict because it's really in
the corner and it's so democratic. But the governor, Governor
(05:24):
Lee has said that he is going to push forward
arm redistricting, and not only it's going to be redistricting,
they're going to overturn a fifty year law that allows
them to do mid decade redistricting. It was illegal in
Tennessee like it's illegal in New Jersey and many other places.
So they're going to overturn this law and once again
(05:45):
do that. They're going to take the Memphis district and
split it into three that will give Republicans a new
seat out of Tennessee. The congressman who's been there for sometimes,
Steve Cohen, he represents Tennessee. He has basically said that
this is gonna end up in litigation. They're going to
fight this in litigation. But whether or not they win
(06:05):
this in twenty twenty six, they're losing the seat in
twenty twenty eight. He has acknowledged that this seat is gone.
It will be a Republican seat come twenty twenty eight,
and Tennessee's gonna get another seat, probably by twenty thirty two,
it's very likely to So Tennessee. All these people moving
to it, they're very quickly adding seats, and they can.
East Tennessee is so Republican that if they push keep
(06:26):
putting East Tennessee further central, they'll have enough for Publican
votes to make sure that they can continue to make
the all those seats Republican. So Tennessee is the one
for Republicans, going one seat for Republican. Next over is Alabama. Okay,
this state is a mess. It is a mess. It
is you have no I've been hearing from stories from
(06:46):
people constantly. So initially Governor k Ivy, she's allegedly, well,
she's not allegedly a very old woman, but she's an
older lady and older, a woman of a certain age
who allegedly likes the drink in the middle of the day.
And she did not want any redistricting. She was saying
flat out, I'm not redistricting, I'm not doing anything. And
the leader of the state Senate in Alabama was a
(07:09):
longtime Democrat who recently fairly recently became a Republican, so
he's not even gung ho about it either, And she
said I'm not redistricting period. Well, she blinked. She said,
now we're going to redistrict. A big question is to
do they do redistrict one seat or two, because they're
saying what I'm hearing is is that she wants to
(07:30):
go back to the old map, the map from before
the lawsuit, which is one democratic seat. However, it's a
democratic seat that basically captures almost the entire large portion
of the black vote in Alabama. Well, you can't do
that because we're against race based redistricting. So how do
you have she say, Now, they could make a democratic
(07:51):
seat if they made like Birmingham and the surrounding areas,
And in that case, it's a democratic seat, but it's
not that democratic. It's really a swing seat. They can
make that a Republican seat, but a swing Republican seat
as well. There's other things to do besides make it
a full blown Republican seat. But if we can't do
race based redistricting, I don't know how she does the
(08:13):
old map that she says she's going to do. There's
this really big push on the part of Republicans in
Alabama to protect Democrat Terry Sewell's district. Terry Sewell is
not a moderate Democrat in any sense. She votes as
left as Bernie Sanders does. I mean, it's one for
the other. It's, you know, instead of a Jewish guy
from Vermont, it's a black woman from Alabama. They vote
(08:34):
exactly the same. The need to protect her or the
fight to protect her is what's going on in Alabama
right now. We'll see how that kind of plays out.
The person who's pushing hardest for this seven zero map.
We're all republic there's all Republican seats is Senator Tommy Tupperville.
He is very likely going to be the next governor.
(08:56):
He's essentially the nominee now and and it's Alabama, so
he'll he'll be He's very very very likely going to
be the next governor. He wants a seven o map.
He wants this very badly. He's been lobbing for it,
he's been fighting for it. We'll see if he gets
his way or if k Ivy gets her way. It's
(09:16):
very much but even though they're both people of a
certain age, it's very much a generational fight in the
in the mindset of who they are as Republicans versus
in the ages of who they are as Republicans, but
Tuberville has been a one man machine wrecking ball. And
if they get the seven zero map where it's all
seven districts, a big credit goes to Tommy Tupperville more than
(09:39):
basically any It was Marshall Blackburn was very for the
Tennessee See, but Blackburn and Tuberville have been the two
senators really fighting for redistricting their state's map. Over in Mississippi,
Governor Tate Reeves he is not of a reale or
retirement this year, but Governor Tate Reeves has said off
the bat they are redistricting that seat, so that will
be Benny Thomas's seat, will be a republic can see,
(10:00):
that will be an extra Republican seat for Republicans or
extra seat for Republicans out of Mississippi, and that leaves
us with Louisiana. The Louisiana has two Democratic seats, one
based out of predominantly New Orleans and one out of
Baton Rouge. So let me tell you guys a little story.
This is not that long ago. It was like six
(10:21):
or seven years ago when the lawsuit came out where
they had to draw a second Democratic seat. I there's
a man in Louisiana. He was a congressman. His name
is Garrett Graves. I don't know who's cereal this man
peed in, but for whatever reason, he is the most
Hayden man in Louisiana. He's a Republican and they purposely
(10:44):
drew his house into this new Democratic district. They did
not want him having a seat in Congress. They were like,
we're getting rid of this guy, and that's that. Well,
now they're talking about redistricting. They're having a conversation about giving,
you know, either either all Republican seats or one Democratic seat.
They what I'm hearing this is alleged. Allegedly they do
(11:06):
not want to give all Republican seats because they don't
even want the possibility of Garrett Graves running for his
old seat to get What did this man do that
everyone can't stand him. It's it's quite bizarre. So if
they did the old map, which basically breaks up the
Baton Rouge district into several different different districts, it opens
(11:29):
up a seat in central to northern Louisiana. The population
center where population is growing, however, is in southeast Louisiana.
It's the way Saint Tammany Parish and Orleans Parish and
Jefferson Parish. They are they want they're going to break
up the New Orleans District, which is much harder to
break up really because it's much more it's much more democratic.
(11:51):
They're going to break up the New Orleans District and
make another Republican district, more in the south, more in
the east, away from Garret Graves's house. That's what I'm hearing.
That's how desperately they want to prevent this man from
being able to run for office again once again. Don't
know who we pissed off, but he pissed somebody up
(12:14):
royally that this is like an eight year long feud.
Louisiana can get messy. It really can. Having lived there
now for a bit, Uh, it's he can get really messy.
It would be hilarious though. If I end up in
a seat that's like a vacant Republican seat, I will
get calls immediately saying, hey, just do it for fun
run for office. I will not do it, but it
will be funny. Okay. So if you add all those
(12:35):
hes together that, depending on what Alabama does, that creates
four or five new Republican districts. Now, there is also
the two core cases that we're looking at that will
also decide this, the first being in Virginia and the
second being in Florida. Let's srob with Florida first. In Florida,
Ronda Santa's redistricted his map, creating four new Republican majority districts,
(13:00):
districts that Trump won anyway by a good margin. While
all those maps are in the middle of a new
lawsuit by Mark Elias. He's a Democratic lawyer. He's a
pretty awful person. Constantly tries to make bluestates, redistrict Republicans
out of existence. Says he fights for democracy, but he
works really hard and making sure voters, depending on how
(13:21):
they vote, don't get any say, and who their congressman is,
make sure they're all democratic seats. He tried to get
rid of the stadn Island seat put into Manhattan. He's
awful anyway, He is suing the He is suing Florida,
and because the claim that he is saying is if
flies in the face of Florida's Fair District's Amendment, which
was passed in twenty ten. The amendment says it's in
(13:43):
the Florida constitution maps cannot be drawn to favor an
incumbent or a political party. DeSantis are saying that that
they're not but there because they're compact maps. We'll see
how that goes. I mean, it seems like markle Lies
has a case to be made. We'll see how the
court does it. It is going to I think a
Republican judge at first. I could see it's working its
(14:06):
way up to the Florida Supreme Court, which is very
Republican as well. But that will be an interesting question
of whether Mark Elias wins and if if he loses,
those are foremost he's going to Republicans. The more interesting
case is the one in Virginia over their referendum. Okay,
I'm going to read court documents to you. Per court documents,
Virginia Democrats advanced the proposal during the twenty twenty four
(14:29):
special session of the general election. However, there are strict
rules as to what kind of legislation can be considered
during these types of sessions. Democratocrats reportedly violated those rules.
As results, any action has taking place. It taking place
to advance the plan would be deemed illegal. That is
what the court case is saying. The court case is
(14:50):
saying there are certain time restrictions on how this referendum
could have gone forward. In Virginia. Democrats broke the law
when they put far Or this ballot initiative that passed
by three points. So so far it's made its way
to the Virginia Supreme Court. The Virginia Supreme Court has
not certified this election results despite it being a week
(15:14):
now and as of Friday, they were supposed to decide
by Priory, they had not decided yet. As of the
according's podcast, they have not decided. And according to Dan
Turntime from The Huddle, he's been on this podcast before,
loved Dan Turntime, He's a longtime democratic strategist. He said
that there is growing anxiety among Democrats Virginia Democrats and
fights kind of happening behind the scenes because Spamberger initially
(15:40):
told the legislator, we can't do this, it is not legal,
and she was kind of strong armed into this position.
And her approval rating. I've done multiple episodes. Her prooting
is tanking because of this. Her provoting is falling apart
because of this. So he says he gives it less
than a fifth DP percent chance that they certify this election.
(16:03):
If that happens, used blowback to Spamburger, usable like to
Democrats who spend sixty five million dollars sixty six million
dollars on this redistrict effort that went nowhere, and the
Octagerian Speaker of the House, who's completely delusional at this point.
But if that happens, that would give Republicans a chance
at another four seats, So fourig in Virginia, four in Florida,
(16:26):
and four to five in the Deep South. Thirteen seats total.
That's a lot of ifs. I want to reminder that's
a lot of if if if so. Nothing is set
in stone, but those are the initial things that we
need to track and look forward to in order to
see what what the map actually looks like. Do Republicans
really have this chance? If all three of those things happen,
(16:49):
Republicans will start out with about two hundred and ten
seats in Congress, two hundred and nine, two hundred and ten,
two hundred eight. It'sing like that, depending on what you
say is a tossup seat. It's a little nuanced, but
between two undred eight to two hundred and ten seats,
they only need another ten at most to win the majority.
How do they do that? How do they win the majority?
We'll get back into that coming up next. As I
(17:11):
said before, if Republicans manage the reditioning wins in the
Deep South in the lawsuit in Virginia and the lawsuit
in Florida, they start off this map with about two
hundred and nine to two hundred and ten House seats,
They need two hundred and eighteen to win the majority, right,
eight to ten more depending on what you call a
swing district. How do they do that? Where are those
(17:33):
eight seats? Right? That's where we want to look at.
Where is the eight seats to create the majority? All right,
let's first go into the seats that they're going to
defend in the House represented Where are they going to
gun to take out seats, especially that Kamala Harris won
but or Republican represents them in Congress? The first being
Mike Lawler seat in New York seventeen. That's the Rockland
(17:55):
County seat. His seat will be very dependent on how
the Orthodox Jewish vote. The other seat is saving his
first congressional district, that's Bucks County and a little bit
north of Bucks a little bit of the Philadelphia suburb Areia.
Fitzpatrick is the most liberal member of the Congress by
a long shot, but he is a fundraising machine and
(18:16):
he's very popular in his seat. I actually don't even
have his seat as a toss. I think his seat
is actually probably lean Republican, despite Kamala Harris having won it.
That's the two that are the peak, you know, Preak
targets for the for the Democrats that Republicans need to defend.
And they both have kind of special conditions. Lawler Very
has a very orthodox Jewish sheet. Fitzpatrick, he's a very
(18:37):
liberal Republican, but in a seat that he has a
lot of money and he's personally very popular. He only
votes with Republicans like fifty five percent of the time,
so he's considered an independent. So there's seats in the northeast.
There's Scott Perry. He represents Harrisburg in Pennsylvania ten. It's Harrisburg,
it's surrounding areas. Perry is a very conservative congressman in
a district that's moving to the left very quickly as
more people from Maryland and New Jersey and Philadelphia move
(19:00):
to that area of the state. Then there's two other districts,
Pennsylvania eight Rob Brushman, and then there's Pennsylvania seven, Ryan McKenzie.
Those are the two northeast Pennsylvania seats. They're both freshmen.
It will be a tough battle to fight. And right
over the river is Tom Kean over in New Jersey seven.
So those is like, that's the biggest compact of swing
areas that all touch each other, those two in Pennsylvania
(19:22):
and the one in New Jersey, and then a little
further away is Pennsylvania ten. Republicans would have to defend
those seats. But that's five right there. Those are five
seats right there that Republicans would need to defend. And
if you can they defend them, if they can win them,
that takes the pressure immediately off the rest of the map.
Now in the southeast, almost all the seats are safe
Republican except for Chuck Edwards from North Carolina. You're like,
(19:47):
who is Chuck Edwards. Chuck Edwards represents the Mountains of Appalachia.
He is He took over from Madison Cawthorne when Madison
Cawthorne had all his scandals. Well, Chuck Edwards now running
for reelection, His first reelection has tons of scandals. He
allegedly is under ethical investigation for allegedly having an affair
(20:07):
with a staffer and, according to Axios, made multiple female
staffers very uncomfortable giving them handwritten notes. One of the
letters said that the staffer wrote a had quote written
a complex chapter to his heart. That is just so stupid. Anyway,
he like, you know, this is such a weird congress
(20:29):
where you have everyone from Corey Mills to Eric Slowell.
Everyone's no one keep it in their pants, keep it
in your pants, and run for reelection. All right. He
is going to have issues because of his personal stuff
going on, but otherwise it is a pretty likely Republican seat.
He's going to be controversial. Whoever thought that the man
following Madison Catherine would be more controversial. But he's more
(20:49):
controversial if the Virginia lawsuit. By the way, also with
the Republicans win that Jen Kiggins and Pennsylvania, it's sort
in Virginia. Second, that's the Virginia Beach district that will
also be very competitive. Okay, but that's how you That's
the entire southeast over in the Midwest, there are five seats,
two in Michigan, one in Wisconsin and two in Iowa.
(21:09):
You have over in Michigan you have the vacant seat
that John James is leaving outside of Detroit and Tom
Barrett seat that's kind of more central Michigan. That's Michigan. Seven.
Over in Wisconsin you have Western Wisconsin. Wisconsin's third district.
Derek Van Orden represents that district. He's in a lot
of trouble. And in Iowa, there's really three swing seats
in Iowa, but there's two that are really in a
(21:30):
lot of trouble. There is the pro amnesty Republican Zach
Nunn his seat in southwest Iowa. And then there's Marionette
Miller Meeks. Mmm, she's in southeast Iowa. Let me tell
you she doesn't get talked about a lot, Marionette Miller Meeks,
but she is the face of persistence, this lady. She
(21:51):
ran three times for the seat, lost all three times,
then ran for state Senate, won the state Senate seat.
Then she runs again a fourth time after using three times,
and she wins by six votes out of four hundred
thousand casts. She wins comfortably the second time, and then
the third time she wins by eight hundred votes out
(22:11):
of four hundred and fifteen thousand casts. She pulls out
sweekers like no one's business. Can she do it again?
Who's to say. We'll find out very quickly, but yeah,
she triple ms Marionette Miller meeks Is. She's able to
pull by Vi sweevers by in a district that Trump
(22:32):
won overwhelmingly. So it's not like a uge. It's not
Susan Collins. This is not a big accomplishment. She should
be able to win there by good margins, and she can,
but she does win, so it's very strange. Okay. The
other seat that Republicans Democrats are targeting is the Omaha
seat Nebraska that is vacated by Dom Bacon. That seat
is most likely going to Democrats. It's very unlikely they're
(22:53):
going to Republicans will hold that seat. It's a vacant seat. Okay.
Over in the Mountain States and the south West is
just a handful of seats. Last left to defend Gabe Evans.
He represents Koloras eighth, that's the suburbs of Denver. You
have Juan Siscamani. He represents this like southeast Arizona, and
you have a suburban a seat district one which is
(23:14):
a vacant representing the Phoenix suburbs. That's really it. That's
the entire landscape. If you want, if Democrats had a
really good year, they could stretch. They can go out
for Iowa's first district, they could go after Monica de
la Cruz's district, in Texas's fifteenth district. There's a few
other ones that they could reach for. But that's basically it.
That's basically where Republicans are on super defense this time
(23:39):
in districts that they can lose. Now, where can they
go on offense? Can Republicans pick up any Democrats seats?
The answer is yes. There are two seats in South
Texas Henry quear seat. He is the most conservative Democrat
in Congress by a long shot. I think he actually
votes a majority of time with Trump, or he did. Anyway,
he was under multiple investigations and I believe he was
(24:02):
indicted and for whatever reason, Trump pardoned him. This is
a Democrat, by the way, who did not then switch parties.
He's running for reelection. It is very strange. I don't
know why the pardon ever happened, but anyway, Henry Quayer's seat.
And then right next door or to a district and
a half next door is Vincente Gonzales. That's Texas thirty
(24:22):
fourth district. He's also up in a Trump back district.
Over in Ohio, Marcy Captors, she's been in Congress longer
than I've been alive. She's running again. Her district was
changed and is much more Republican. That is a prime
pickup seat opportunity in Ohio. In Washington State, you have
Maria Perez's seat. That's the seat that Joe Kent ran
(24:42):
for and loss. It was represented previously by Republicans. Trump
won it. It's a tough it's a reach, but it's possible.
And then the other two districts that Republicans can really
reach for is over in Long Island in New York's
third congressional district, the old George Santos seat. This is
the seat that Trump won by four points a Republicans. MICHAELA.
Petrie's running. He's very he ran last time. He came
(25:03):
very close to beating defeating Tom Swase, the longtime incumbent.
They have a chance. It's a Trump seat by a
decent margin. This wasn't a seat that Trump barely won.
So there and there's a big Jewish population as well,
it's a big Asian population, so we'll see how the
dynamics changed there. But that's definitely a prime pickup opportunity.
And then the last one is Main's second congressional that's
(25:24):
northern Maine. It is a Trump ten seat. Trump won
it by ten points last time. The former governor, PAULA. Page,
he is a wild man. You could I could do
a whole episode on Polo Page. A wide, very interesting
human being, but a wild man. He has never lost
that district anytime he's ever run statewide. So he's running
as a Republican. I think that's probably the biggest opportunity
(25:44):
of Republicans have to pick up a seat anyway. That's
the gamut, That's the entire map for you, right, so
think about think about it. First of all, how few people,
relatively a few people in this country will decide the
Speaker of the House or presenta's race and who is
the majority in Congress. It's probably less than ten million
(26:06):
people live in a will vote for, will vote in
favor of the congressman who will be who will make
up the majority? Maybe twenty million. Maybe we see twenty
million at most, right, because you think everyone who lives there,
not everyone who votes. Everyone who votes in these places
is probably ten million people will live there. Maybe twenty million.
(26:26):
Not many, not many in a country of three hundred
fifty million people. Really, we are a democracy that of
if you're in the right zip code, you make a
lot of big decisions. But that's pretty wild anyway. Those
are the districts. That's the math. If Virginia, the Virginia
(26:46):
lawsuit goes for Republican's way, if Florida goes Republican's way,
and if the South three districts were at two hundred
and nine seats, about there's fifteen seats to defend. There
are maybe like seventeen seats will be generous, seventeen seats
to defend, and there's so seven seats to go on
the offense. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the House.
It's not impossible to Republicans to get a majority. They
(27:10):
need to win about nine to ten out of twenty
two twenty three seats total twenty four seats. I mean,
we're all playing with like, is this really a swing seat?
Is this not really a swing seats. So I'm that's
why my numbers are changing a little bit. But about
ten seats to win out of twenty two twenty two,
twenty three, that's less than half. It actually shocked me
(27:34):
when I did this map because the conclusion that bygun
conclusion is not only is this impossible, but it is
going to be a twenty eighteen style wave. I don't
think we're there. I don't think we're there. I just
don't think the the maps have changed so much where
we would either have to see a Hillary Clinton style
or version of the Latina vote where we're losing Latinos
by fifty points. Kind of don't see that, and we
(27:56):
would have to see a map where there's just not
as many swing seats. That's the that's the point. There's
not that many swing seats left. We are in a
country where people basically live in a seat that's gonna
go one way or the other almost every time, with
very very very few exceptions. Okay, next up, Ask Me Anything.
(28:17):
Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If
you want to part of the Ask Me Anything segment
only Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. That's Ryan
at Numbers or a numbers gamepodcast dot com. Top of
the show, I told you about a personal victory. I
had a meal that I made because it was like
it was restaurant quality, like it was really good. I
made a pasta with broccoli sauce and a lemon chicken
(28:39):
that was legitimately ten out of ten. I'm not even
just bred like my guess is, jaws were on the floor.
That's how good it is. I want to tell you
about how to make it because it because the recipes
that I get, Like I when I give you a recipe,
I get so much positive feedback, and I want people
to eat good. I mean, life is too short to
have a bad meal. This is how you make it.
It's very simple. Basically, you take broccoli and olive oil.
(29:01):
You coat the whole bottom of a pan of pot
and olive oil. Throw broccoli in, Throw garlic. Don't even
cut the garlic nothing, don't drop the whole entire two
cloves of garlic. Put some salt, whatever spices you want,
a little, a little paprika, a little you know, a
little spice. Cup of water and you steam it and
you let it steam and you'll cook through the steaming.
Then you take cheese like parmesan and some Romano's cheese,
(29:24):
and you whip them together with an egg. So many
Italian recipes do not call for a dairy that you
think call for dairy, it's actually just cheese and eggs.
You whip them together with an egg. Once the broccoli
is cooked, you take the mash or whatebout's call it.
The I think that mashes the food. And you mash
the broccoli, and you mash the garlic, You throw the
cheese in, you mix them together. All this time, you've
(29:47):
boiled a pot of water with pasta in it. You
spoon the pasta into the into the pot with the
broccoli in it, and then you apply a cup or
not a cup, a spoonful, a ladleful of winter from
the pasta into the pot with a broccoli in it.
You whip them all together. You coat it with more
olive oil, a little more cheese, and that's basically it.
(30:09):
You mix it together. It's not it's amazing, it's incredible.
It's so good. It's pretty healthy for you. You have you know,
vitamins and fiber from the broccoli. It's not super heavy.
It's so delicious. And the chicken wait, this was incredible, guys.
So cut the chicken in half, you tenderize it, you
beat it with like a mallet or something like that.
You can use a wine bottle if you got nothing
else nothing I mean, if you got a wine bottle,
(30:31):
use a wine bottle. Who knows life's better with some wine.
You take, You throw two cups of butter in it.
You bread the chicken lightly with either like flour or
what I do, which is breadcrumbs, no egg on top,
but nothing. You just bread it as well sweat. You
throw it in with the melted butter. Cook them, and
then you take like Alfredo sauce with lemon in it.
You can make your own with heavy whipping cream, but
(30:53):
who's got time for that? You got just buy buy
Alfredo sauce with lemon in it. You coat that in
and you put in a cut or not a cup
half a cup of dry white wine. Together creates the
most incredible marinate. You just flip them over, cook them,
take them out, sprinkle the sauce that you made on top,
the juice you made on top, put a little cilantro.
(31:16):
That's it. That's all, guys. It was incredibly so good.
Not my Grandma's recipe, not the grandma's meat ball recipe,
but it was excellent, and some of you appreciate the
food recipes, so I'm going to keep giving them as
long as you appreciate them. Now it's time to go
back to the politics. Let's talk about questions from asking
me anything. First one comes from Brian. Brian writes, imagine
(31:36):
a world which of Bill Clinton opposed both the NAFTA
North American Free Trade Agreement and granting China permanent normal
trade relations, effectively blocking their entry into the WTO. In
this scenario, what does Americas electorate look like today? Do
soccer moms and Nascar dads can't even evolve as political
arc types? Does change narratives that propelled Obama to the
(31:58):
White House still resonate? Does a Hillary Clinton campaign succeed
without that specific policy baggage of her husband? Finally, would
that political inversion between parties that Alton benefit Trump have
ever taken place? Happy thirty ninth birthday, What an interesting question.
It's a lot to chew on. Obviously, we don't enter WTO,
(32:21):
we don't enter NAFTA, we don't have We will still
lose some manufacturing jobs as we did before those two things,
but we wouldn't see the huge plumb drop in manufacturing
jobs that we saw during really the Bush administration because
Bush made China a permanent member of the WTO likely.
(32:43):
I mean, I can't speak to every one of those scenarios.
I will say the one scenario that I would speak to,
because remember Obama's change was really about Iraq and the
financial crisis, not so much about the trade agreements. That
was all kind of in the background. Hillary and Trump
in that scenario, I would think Hillary would actually be
(33:04):
Trump if we had if miss if Trump did not
have the substantial loss of manufactory and the two decades
of the opioid crisis or a decade and a half
the opiad crisis, that fill that void for a lot
of people. I don't know if he wins, I don't
think he went Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin. Those jobs would
still be there, those people would still be blue collar workers.
(33:26):
And yeah, I think I've fed a lot when Trump.
I remember this so well. In twenty sixteen, Trump went
to I have a speech in Michigan saying that he
would tell the executives of the Ford Motor industry that
if they moved their cars to China or Japan. He
was going to put it on Mexico. He was going
to put a tariff so strong on their business it
(33:47):
would bankrupt them. And it was electricity in Michigan. So yeah,
would would that? Would that? Yeah? I don't Without that,
I don't know if he would win. I really don't.
I think. Here's the thing, and I wrote this in
my book. It's called They're not Listening. I actually have
a copyright next to me. You don't have to buy
it because it's out for years. I don't make any
money off of it. I mean you can. It's interesting.
(34:08):
You could listen to an audio tipe. I don't read it.
You don't hear my nasally voice. The thing about Trump
is the elite who hated him were the ones who
created him. The elite who can't stand him were the
media that gave him free advertising. And it was the
political class like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and George W.
(34:31):
Bush who hurt the livelihoods of the American people to
such a degree that they would vote for a reality
show star somebody who Now it seems like, of course,
Donald Trump, but eleven years ago absolutely not Yeah, they
created him. So if they didn't create him, if they
(34:52):
didn't do those things, the open borders, the endless wars, Iraq,
open borders, mass immigration, NAFTA, China, WTO. Without those things,
you don't get Donald Trump. You just don't. That's my opinion. Okay,
next question is I think the first. This question goes
from Michael by the way, he said, I really enjoy
your podcast with Ann Coulter. I frequently hear that political
(35:13):
violence is mostly right wing phenomenon. But I find this
hard to believe, especially given the size and scope of
the BLM and antifil rally since twenty twenty. How are
they deriving these numbers? Do all instances of violence count
the same? No, they do not. That's such a good question.
I was on Laura Ingram show about this one time.
So the way that the SPLC, which is the predominant group,
(35:35):
I know KATO had their own numbers, but KATO is
such a joke of an organization. SPLC is the one
that everyone kind of reaches to for the official numbers
on crime with political violence. The way that they do
it is if you are associated with anything that they
deem as right wing and you commit a crime at all.
(35:57):
It is there for right wing political violence. So, for instance,
I remember this very specifically. It was a case of
a man from New Hampshire who was in a Nazi
prison gang when he was in prison, gets out of
prison and kills his stepbrother for calling the police on
him for a different crime work. I think he shot
(36:18):
a gun out of his car into a neighborhood like
a stray bullet, didn't kill anybody, didn't urt anybody, but
the brother called the police and then he killed a brother.
There is no politics in that conversation at all. He
was doing it for any political reason, but the fact
that he belonged to a Nazi prison gang, and that
is deemed as a right wing political organization. According to
(36:38):
the SPLC, he committed a right wing targeted attack. No
one from the BLM riots who committed a crime, or
virtually no one who committed a crime, was ever counted
as political violence. David Dorn, the former policeman seventy seven
year old black policeman was murdered by BLM rioters was
(37:00):
counted as BLM insided violence or left wing violence at all.
They were like, Nope, doesn't count, doesn't count at all,
if you went to a BLM rally and then broke
a window, burned a building, beat somebody, murdered somebody. No,
it does not count as left wing violence. If you
belong to a gang in prison and that gang is white,
(37:23):
and you commit another crime out of prison, as many
former prisoners do, that is considered right wing political violence.
That's how they calculated it as utter and total nonsense.
That's why these organizations should not be trusted. These non profits,
they also don't count. By the way, they don't count
non homicidal crime. I remember twenty sixteen, I was in
(37:43):
my late twenties. If I remember in Chicago and the
Trump supporters were going to Chicago to see Trump speak
and they were attacked. I remember where that woman was, like,
I think it was in California. They threw eggs at her.
Those are acts of political violence that they are not homicidal,
but they are not counted as left wing political violence.
So also, by the way, you know who's not count
(38:03):
as left wing political violence. Luigi yep, Luigi Mangione is
not considered left wing political violence because he doesn't have
a quote ideology. Okay, you also wrote, by the way,
you email the NFL draft pick. I know nothing about sports,
so I can't even read that question because I'm going
to sound like a moron. Last question comes from Trevor.
(38:24):
He writes, I hope you had a great birthday. I did,
Thank you. Trevor, He says, do you think it'd be
a great good idea to amend the Constitution so that
any effort to increase or expand immigration must be passed
by a majority of voters in a nationwide ballot referendum.
I understand that the founding fathers weren't huge fans of
direct democracy, but I think that who lives here and
who votes here is too important that Americans should get
(38:47):
a say. Also, the form more population in the US
is now, it's May fifteen to sixty percent of the
total population. Do you think that we should set caps
on what the percentage of the US population forum born
should be? If he yes, which the percentage be? Those
are very smart questions. Let's start with the referendum first. No,
I don't think of that showing for a referendum, because
(39:08):
there are just times when there is you know, unforeseen
instances where immigration flows up. Let's say Canada is invaded.
I'm just making up a making a random thing. But
we have to take in refugees from Canada and mass
immigration is expanded, or we have a situation where there
(39:29):
is something we need a group of people. We can't
wait for a national referendum. National referendums in a nation
like ours, I don't think really work. It's too big,
it's too diverse. They work sometimes in places like Leechenstein
or Switzerland, and even when they are national referendums, like
in Switzerland, they had one on capping immigration, and what
(39:51):
happened was after the people voted for it, it then
went on to it was watered down when it was applied,
so they didn't even get where they wanted. So no,
no referendum. Should there be a cap on the form
on one population, Yes, there should. I would say it
should never exceed Well, I would say it should never
exceed fifteen percent, but we're already over that, so fifteen
percent we got to work our way down. Anyway. I
(40:14):
have more great stuff coming up next. On Friday's episode,
new birth data once again showing Trump's immigration policies are working.
It is happening. We are seeing declines of immigration. We
have that and so much more. If you like this podcast,
please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast
where every tip of this podcast, or if you're watching
on YouTube, press subscribe and click the ball so you
(40:34):
don't miss any episodes. I appreciate you all. Have a
great Wednesday. Everybody,
Welcome back to It's the Numbers Game with Ryan Gridowski.
I want to start by saying two things. One, give
a moment of a moment to honor the great memory
of Spirit Airline. And the thousands of Instagram reels that
filled my page of people throwing luggage out the window
(00:22):
or you know, getting into fistfights. They were really great entertainment. Also,
I've talked a lot of this podcasts of personal victories.
I made a meal the other day that was phenomenal.
I'm going to talk about it during the Ask Me
Anything segment because I know most people are heard for
politics and not for any of my big bag of bs.
(00:42):
But this was phenomenal, and some people do like my
Italian recipes, my Italian food. I'm going to give you
guys that at the end of the episode. Okay, let's
get into the numbers of how Republicans can win the
majority in the House of Representatives in November. I know
everyone's already assumed it's a bygone conclusion. It's too far fetched.
We can't win. It's going to be a twenty eighteen blowout.
(01:05):
I've been breaking down the numbers and they're not as
bad as people think. There are, there are a lot
of ifs, there's a lot that could change, and a
lot of things do change from now until election day.
But it's not as big a reach as even I
thought it was. So let's first get into the redistricting fight,
because a lot is centered on the redistricting fight of
what's going on with these new congressional districts. Since the
(01:27):
Supreme Court ruled against race based redistricting, and remember the
DOJ said they're going to enforce lawsuits against race based redistricting,
there's been a lot of movements, mostly in the Southern states,
ahead of the November election. Now there's a big problem
in the sense that there's time. And this is what
I heard in DC circles was that the liberal justices
(01:48):
were taking such a long time to deliberate to give
their opinions on the case because they wanted to hold
it up as long as possible to give Republican states
as little time as pots to redistrict ahead of the midterms.
And this is, by the way, I'm not like breaking news.
This was told wildly throughout Washington, d C. Now, the
(02:09):
crazy thing is going into this. Almost all the Southern
states have governors who cannot run for reelection right. Governors
in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, they're all set
to retire this year, so part of them are looking
at this as I'm going to build my legacy that
(02:30):
I'm for my idea of fairness. I'm going to get
a nice up in the New York Times when I die,
the obituary from established media are going to say I
stood up for black majority districts, or they're saying my
legacy will be the I delivered Republicans more congressional districts.
It's a very unusual thing because there's not as much
political pressure that can be applied to a governor who
(02:52):
is retiring as the one who needs to run for
reelection in the future. And we're seeing this in this redistricting,
you know, escape what's going on right now. First of all,
let's look with the states that are not redistioncing that
said off the top, I'm not redistricting Georgia being number one,
Georgia could redistrict one to two seats in Republicans favor
predominantly one the one in South Georgia for sure, and
(03:16):
Brian Kemp has said no obviously Brian Kemp. Anyone who
follows and who knows Brian Kemp is not a big
fan of Donald Trump. Stalin Trump's not a big fan
of Brian Kemp. Trump tried to primary Camp. Kemp obviously
came out as a big victor, but there is no
love lost between the two of them. But he has
said flat out I'm not redistricting, so take those seats.
That seats are two seats off the table. Others state
(03:36):
that's not redistrict is South Carolina. South Carolina, they have
one predominantly black district which is which is where Jim
Clyburn is the representative. Now, for those who are know,
Jim Clyburn was the head of was in Democratic leadership
for a long time. Whenever like Nancy Pelosis to take
those pictures with like house Democratic leadership, he was the older,
(03:56):
bald black gentleman next to Nancy Pelosi all the time.
He is a powerhouse in South Carolina. He is the
Democratic Party of South Carolina and he most famously is
the reason that Joe Biden won the nomination in twenty twenty.
He was that he changed the trajectory of Biden's losing
campaign because of his endorsement, Biden won South Carolina, then
(04:21):
he won more southern states. The black vote came for him,
and that's after he got obliterated in Iowa and New
Hampshire and Nevada, and people were like, well, it's kind
of over for Joe. Clyburn has immense political power, and
even in the Democratic Party, even with Nancy Pelosi retiring
and all the rest of them kind of leaving, he
still wields a lot of power and a lot of
power for the state. And I think maybe a calculation
(04:42):
could be that they want him there in Congress in
case they need money for the state and the Democrats
of the House or whatnot. Anyway, so Henry McMasters, according
to the Post Courier, says he is not redistracting, and
I kind of believe that that's where they, like, let's
talk about the places that are redistriing, pending some lawsuits.
First of Tennessee, I'm actually surprised Tennessee only has one
(05:03):
Democrat district, one black majority district. It is the district
in Memphis. If you look at a map of Tennessee, right,
it all looks red, ruby, red. There's one little, tiny
little spot that is where there's the democratic district. It's
kind of even hard to redistrict because it's really in
the corner and it's so democratic. But the governor, Governor
(05:24):
Lee has said that he is going to push forward
arm redistricting, and not only it's going to be redistricting,
they're going to overturn a fifty year law that allows
them to do mid decade redistricting. It was illegal in
Tennessee like it's illegal in New Jersey and many other places.
So they're going to overturn this law and once again
(05:45):
do that. They're going to take the Memphis district and
split it into three that will give Republicans a new
seat out of Tennessee. The congressman who's been there for sometimes,
Steve Cohen, he represents Tennessee. He has basically said that
this is gonna end up in litigation. They're going to
fight this in litigation. But whether or not they win
(06:05):
this in twenty twenty six, they're losing the seat in
twenty twenty eight. He has acknowledged that this seat is gone.
It will be a Republican seat come twenty twenty eight,
and Tennessee's gonna get another seat, probably by twenty thirty two,
it's very likely to So Tennessee. All these people moving
to it, they're very quickly adding seats, and they can.
East Tennessee is so Republican that if they push keep
(06:26):
putting East Tennessee further central, they'll have enough for Publican
votes to make sure that they can continue to make
the all those seats Republican. So Tennessee is the one
for Republicans, going one seat for Republican. Next over is Alabama. Okay,
this state is a mess. It is a mess. It
is you have no I've been hearing from stories from
(06:46):
people constantly. So initially Governor k Ivy, she's allegedly, well,
she's not allegedly a very old woman, but she's an
older lady and older, a woman of a certain age
who allegedly likes the drink in the middle of the day.
And she did not want any redistricting. She was saying
flat out, I'm not redistricting, I'm not doing anything. And
the leader of the state Senate in Alabama was a
(07:09):
longtime Democrat who recently fairly recently became a Republican, so
he's not even gung ho about it either, And she
said I'm not redistricting period. Well, she blinked. She said,
now we're going to redistrict. A big question is to
do they do redistrict one seat or two, because they're
saying what I'm hearing is is that she wants to
(07:30):
go back to the old map, the map from before
the lawsuit, which is one democratic seat. However, it's a
democratic seat that basically captures almost the entire large portion
of the black vote in Alabama. Well, you can't do
that because we're against race based redistricting. So how do
you have she say, Now, they could make a democratic
(07:51):
seat if they made like Birmingham and the surrounding areas,
And in that case, it's a democratic seat, but it's
not that democratic. It's really a swing seat. They can
make that a Republican seat, but a swing Republican seat
as well. There's other things to do besides make it
a full blown Republican seat. But if we can't do
race based redistricting, I don't know how she does the
(08:13):
old map that she says she's going to do. There's
this really big push on the part of Republicans in
Alabama to protect Democrat Terry Sewell's district. Terry Sewell is
not a moderate Democrat in any sense. She votes as
left as Bernie Sanders does. I mean, it's one for
the other. It's, you know, instead of a Jewish guy
from Vermont, it's a black woman from Alabama. They vote
(08:34):
exactly the same. The need to protect her or the
fight to protect her is what's going on in Alabama
right now. We'll see how that kind of plays out.
The person who's pushing hardest for this seven zero map.
We're all republic there's all Republican seats is Senator Tommy Tupperville.
He is very likely going to be the next governor.
(08:56):
He's essentially the nominee now and and it's Alabama, so
he'll he'll be He's very very very likely going to
be the next governor. He wants a seven o map.
He wants this very badly. He's been lobbing for it,
he's been fighting for it. We'll see if he gets
his way or if k Ivy gets her way. It's
(09:16):
very much but even though they're both people of a
certain age, it's very much a generational fight in the
in the mindset of who they are as Republicans versus
in the ages of who they are as Republicans, but
Tuberville has been a one man machine wrecking ball. And
if they get the seven zero map where it's all
seven districts, a big credit goes to Tommy Tupperville more than
(09:39):
basically any It was Marshall Blackburn was very for the
Tennessee See, but Blackburn and Tuberville have been the two
senators really fighting for redistricting their state's map. Over in Mississippi,
Governor Tate Reeves he is not of a reale or
retirement this year, but Governor Tate Reeves has said off
the bat they are redistricting that seat, so that will
be Benny Thomas's seat, will be a republic can see,
(10:00):
that will be an extra Republican seat for Republicans or
extra seat for Republicans out of Mississippi, and that leaves
us with Louisiana. The Louisiana has two Democratic seats, one
based out of predominantly New Orleans and one out of
Baton Rouge. So let me tell you guys a little story.
This is not that long ago. It was like six
(10:21):
or seven years ago when the lawsuit came out where
they had to draw a second Democratic seat. I there's
a man in Louisiana. He was a congressman. His name
is Garrett Graves. I don't know who's cereal this man
peed in, but for whatever reason, he is the most
Hayden man in Louisiana. He's a Republican and they purposely
(10:44):
drew his house into this new Democratic district. They did
not want him having a seat in Congress. They were like,
we're getting rid of this guy, and that's that. Well,
now they're talking about redistricting. They're having a conversation about giving,
you know, either either all Republican seats or one Democratic seat.
They what I'm hearing this is alleged. Allegedly they do
(11:06):
not want to give all Republican seats because they don't
even want the possibility of Garrett Graves running for his
old seat to get What did this man do that
everyone can't stand him. It's it's quite bizarre. So if
they did the old map, which basically breaks up the
Baton Rouge district into several different different districts, it opens
(11:29):
up a seat in central to northern Louisiana. The population
center where population is growing, however, is in southeast Louisiana.
It's the way Saint Tammany Parish and Orleans Parish and
Jefferson Parish. They are they want they're going to break
up the New Orleans District, which is much harder to
break up really because it's much more it's much more democratic.
(11:51):
They're going to break up the New Orleans District and
make another Republican district, more in the south, more in
the east, away from Garret Graves's house. That's what I'm hearing.
That's how desperately they want to prevent this man from
being able to run for office again once again. Don't
know who we pissed off, but he pissed somebody up
(12:14):
royally that this is like an eight year long feud.
Louisiana can get messy. It really can. Having lived there
now for a bit, Uh, it's he can get really messy.
It would be hilarious though. If I end up in
a seat that's like a vacant Republican seat, I will
get calls immediately saying, hey, just do it for fun
run for office. I will not do it, but it
will be funny. Okay. So if you add all those
(12:35):
hes together that, depending on what Alabama does, that creates
four or five new Republican districts. Now, there is also
the two core cases that we're looking at that will
also decide this, the first being in Virginia and the
second being in Florida. Let's srob with Florida first. In Florida,
Ronda Santa's redistricted his map, creating four new Republican majority districts,
(13:00):
districts that Trump won anyway by a good margin. While
all those maps are in the middle of a new
lawsuit by Mark Elias. He's a Democratic lawyer. He's a
pretty awful person. Constantly tries to make bluestates, redistrict Republicans
out of existence. Says he fights for democracy, but he
works really hard and making sure voters, depending on how
(13:21):
they vote, don't get any say, and who their congressman is,
make sure they're all democratic seats. He tried to get
rid of the stadn Island seat put into Manhattan. He's
awful anyway, He is suing the He is suing Florida,
and because the claim that he is saying is if
flies in the face of Florida's Fair District's Amendment, which
was passed in twenty ten. The amendment says it's in
(13:43):
the Florida constitution maps cannot be drawn to favor an
incumbent or a political party. DeSantis are saying that that
they're not but there because they're compact maps. We'll see
how that goes. I mean, it seems like markle Lies
has a case to be made. We'll see how the
court does it. It is going to I think a
Republican judge at first. I could see it's working its
(14:06):
way up to the Florida Supreme Court, which is very
Republican as well. But that will be an interesting question
of whether Mark Elias wins and if if he loses,
those are foremost he's going to Republicans. The more interesting
case is the one in Virginia over their referendum. Okay,
I'm going to read court documents to you. Per court documents,
Virginia Democrats advanced the proposal during the twenty twenty four
(14:29):
special session of the general election. However, there are strict
rules as to what kind of legislation can be considered
during these types of sessions. Democratocrats reportedly violated those rules.
As results, any action has taking place. It taking place
to advance the plan would be deemed illegal. That is
what the court case is saying. The court case is
(14:50):
saying there are certain time restrictions on how this referendum
could have gone forward. In Virginia. Democrats broke the law
when they put far Or this ballot initiative that passed
by three points. So so far it's made its way
to the Virginia Supreme Court. The Virginia Supreme Court has
not certified this election results despite it being a week
(15:14):
now and as of Friday, they were supposed to decide
by Priory, they had not decided yet. As of the
according's podcast, they have not decided. And according to Dan
Turntime from The Huddle, he's been on this podcast before,
loved Dan Turntime, He's a longtime democratic strategist. He said
that there is growing anxiety among Democrats Virginia Democrats and
fights kind of happening behind the scenes because Spamberger initially
(15:40):
told the legislator, we can't do this, it is not legal,
and she was kind of strong armed into this position.
And her approval rating. I've done multiple episodes. Her prooting
is tanking because of this. Her provoting is falling apart
because of this. So he says he gives it less
than a fifth DP percent chance that they certify this election.
(16:03):
If that happens, used blowback to Spamburger, usable like to
Democrats who spend sixty five million dollars sixty six million
dollars on this redistrict effort that went nowhere, and the
Octagerian Speaker of the House, who's completely delusional at this point.
But if that happens, that would give Republicans a chance
at another four seats, So fourig in Virginia, four in Florida,
(16:26):
and four to five in the Deep South. Thirteen seats total.
That's a lot of ifs. I want to reminder that's
a lot of if if if so. Nothing is set
in stone, but those are the initial things that we
need to track and look forward to in order to
see what what the map actually looks like. Do Republicans
really have this chance? If all three of those things happen,
(16:49):
Republicans will start out with about two hundred and ten
seats in Congress, two hundred and nine, two hundred and ten,
two hundred eight. It'sing like that, depending on what you
say is a tossup seat. It's a little nuanced, but
between two undred eight to two hundred and ten seats,
they only need another ten at most to win the majority.
How do they do that? How do they win the majority?
We'll get back into that coming up next. As I
(17:11):
said before, if Republicans manage the reditioning wins in the
Deep South in the lawsuit in Virginia and the lawsuit
in Florida, they start off this map with about two
hundred and nine to two hundred and ten House seats,
They need two hundred and eighteen to win the majority, right,
eight to ten more depending on what you call a
swing district. How do they do that? Where are those
(17:33):
eight seats? Right? That's where we want to look at.
Where is the eight seats to create the majority? All right,
let's first go into the seats that they're going to
defend in the House represented Where are they going to
gun to take out seats, especially that Kamala Harris won
but or Republican represents them in Congress? The first being
Mike Lawler seat in New York seventeen. That's the Rockland
(17:55):
County seat. His seat will be very dependent on how
the Orthodox Jewish vote. The other seat is saving his
first congressional district, that's Bucks County and a little bit
north of Bucks a little bit of the Philadelphia suburb Areia.
Fitzpatrick is the most liberal member of the Congress by
a long shot, but he is a fundraising machine and
(18:16):
he's very popular in his seat. I actually don't even
have his seat as a toss. I think his seat
is actually probably lean Republican, despite Kamala Harris having won it.
That's the two that are the peak, you know, Preak
targets for the for the Democrats that Republicans need to defend.
And they both have kind of special conditions. Lawler Very
has a very orthodox Jewish sheet. Fitzpatrick, he's a very
(18:37):
liberal Republican, but in a seat that he has a
lot of money and he's personally very popular. He only
votes with Republicans like fifty five percent of the time,
so he's considered an independent. So there's seats in the northeast.
There's Scott Perry. He represents Harrisburg in Pennsylvania ten. It's Harrisburg,
it's surrounding areas. Perry is a very conservative congressman in
a district that's moving to the left very quickly as
more people from Maryland and New Jersey and Philadelphia move
(19:00):
to that area of the state. Then there's two other districts,
Pennsylvania eight Rob Brushman, and then there's Pennsylvania seven, Ryan McKenzie.
Those are the two northeast Pennsylvania seats. They're both freshmen.
It will be a tough battle to fight. And right
over the river is Tom Kean over in New Jersey seven.
So those is like, that's the biggest compact of swing
areas that all touch each other, those two in Pennsylvania
(19:22):
and the one in New Jersey, and then a little
further away is Pennsylvania ten. Republicans would have to defend
those seats. But that's five right there. Those are five
seats right there that Republicans would need to defend. And
if you can they defend them, if they can win them,
that takes the pressure immediately off the rest of the map.
Now in the southeast, almost all the seats are safe
Republican except for Chuck Edwards from North Carolina. You're like,
(19:47):
who is Chuck Edwards. Chuck Edwards represents the Mountains of Appalachia.
He is He took over from Madison Cawthorne when Madison
Cawthorne had all his scandals. Well, Chuck Edwards now running
for reelection, His first reelection has tons of scandals. He
allegedly is under ethical investigation for allegedly having an affair
(20:07):
with a staffer and, according to Axios, made multiple female
staffers very uncomfortable giving them handwritten notes. One of the
letters said that the staffer wrote a had quote written
a complex chapter to his heart. That is just so stupid. Anyway,
he like, you know, this is such a weird congress
(20:29):
where you have everyone from Corey Mills to Eric Slowell.
Everyone's no one keep it in their pants, keep it
in your pants, and run for reelection. All right. He
is going to have issues because of his personal stuff
going on, but otherwise it is a pretty likely Republican seat.
He's going to be controversial. Whoever thought that the man
following Madison Catherine would be more controversial. But he's more
(20:49):
controversial if the Virginia lawsuit. By the way, also with
the Republicans win that Jen Kiggins and Pennsylvania, it's sort
in Virginia. Second, that's the Virginia Beach district that will
also be very competitive. Okay, but that's how you That's
the entire southeast over in the Midwest, there are five seats,
two in Michigan, one in Wisconsin and two in Iowa.
(21:09):
You have over in Michigan you have the vacant seat
that John James is leaving outside of Detroit and Tom
Barrett seat that's kind of more central Michigan. That's Michigan. Seven.
Over in Wisconsin you have Western Wisconsin. Wisconsin's third district.
Derek Van Orden represents that district. He's in a lot
of trouble. And in Iowa, there's really three swing seats
in Iowa, but there's two that are really in a
(21:30):
lot of trouble. There is the pro amnesty Republican Zach
Nunn his seat in southwest Iowa. And then there's Marionette
Miller Meeks. Mmm, she's in southeast Iowa. Let me tell
you she doesn't get talked about a lot, Marionette Miller Meeks,
but she is the face of persistence, this lady. She
(21:51):
ran three times for the seat, lost all three times,
then ran for state Senate, won the state Senate seat.
Then she runs again a fourth time after using three times,
and she wins by six votes out of four hundred
thousand casts. She wins comfortably the second time, and then
the third time she wins by eight hundred votes out
(22:11):
of four hundred and fifteen thousand casts. She pulls out
sweekers like no one's business. Can she do it again?
Who's to say. We'll find out very quickly, but yeah,
she triple ms Marionette Miller meeks Is. She's able to
pull by Vi sweevers by in a district that Trump
(22:32):
won overwhelmingly. So it's not like a uge. It's not
Susan Collins. This is not a big accomplishment. She should
be able to win there by good margins, and she can,
but she does win, so it's very strange. Okay. The
other seat that Republicans Democrats are targeting is the Omaha
seat Nebraska that is vacated by Dom Bacon. That seat
is most likely going to Democrats. It's very unlikely they're
(22:53):
going to Republicans will hold that seat. It's a vacant seat. Okay.
Over in the Mountain States and the south West is
just a handful of seats. Last left to defend Gabe Evans.
He represents Koloras eighth, that's the suburbs of Denver. You
have Juan Siscamani. He represents this like southeast Arizona, and
you have a suburban a seat district one which is
(23:14):
a vacant representing the Phoenix suburbs. That's really it. That's
the entire landscape. If you want, if Democrats had a
really good year, they could stretch. They can go out
for Iowa's first district, they could go after Monica de
la Cruz's district, in Texas's fifteenth district. There's a few
other ones that they could reach for. But that's basically it.
That's basically where Republicans are on super defense this time
(23:39):
in districts that they can lose. Now, where can they
go on offense? Can Republicans pick up any Democrats seats?
The answer is yes. There are two seats in South
Texas Henry quear seat. He is the most conservative Democrat
in Congress by a long shot. I think he actually
votes a majority of time with Trump, or he did. Anyway,
he was under multiple investigations and I believe he was
(24:02):
indicted and for whatever reason, Trump pardoned him. This is
a Democrat, by the way, who did not then switch parties.
He's running for reelection. It is very strange. I don't
know why the pardon ever happened, but anyway, Henry Quayer's seat.
And then right next door or to a district and
a half next door is Vincente Gonzales. That's Texas thirty
(24:22):
fourth district. He's also up in a Trump back district.
Over in Ohio, Marcy Captors, she's been in Congress longer
than I've been alive. She's running again. Her district was
changed and is much more Republican. That is a prime
pickup seat opportunity in Ohio. In Washington State, you have
Maria Perez's seat. That's the seat that Joe Kent ran
(24:42):
for and loss. It was represented previously by Republicans. Trump
won it. It's a tough it's a reach, but it's possible.
And then the other two districts that Republicans can really
reach for is over in Long Island in New York's
third congressional district, the old George Santos seat. This is
the seat that Trump won by four points a Republicans. MICHAELA.
Petrie's running. He's very he ran last time. He came
(25:03):
very close to beating defeating Tom Swase, the longtime incumbent.
They have a chance. It's a Trump seat by a
decent margin. This wasn't a seat that Trump barely won.
So there and there's a big Jewish population as well,
it's a big Asian population, so we'll see how the
dynamics changed there. But that's definitely a prime pickup opportunity.
And then the last one is Main's second congressional that's
(25:24):
northern Maine. It is a Trump ten seat. Trump won
it by ten points last time. The former governor, PAULA. Page,
he is a wild man. You could I could do
a whole episode on Polo Page. A wide, very interesting
human being, but a wild man. He has never lost
that district anytime he's ever run statewide. So he's running
as a Republican. I think that's probably the biggest opportunity
(25:44):
of Republicans have to pick up a seat anyway. That's
the gamut, That's the entire map for you, right, so
think about think about it. First of all, how few people,
relatively a few people in this country will decide the
Speaker of the House or presenta's race and who is
the majority in Congress. It's probably less than ten million
(26:06):
people live in a will vote for, will vote in
favor of the congressman who will be who will make
up the majority? Maybe twenty million. Maybe we see twenty
million at most, right, because you think everyone who lives there,
not everyone who votes. Everyone who votes in these places
is probably ten million people will live there. Maybe twenty million.
(26:26):
Not many, not many in a country of three hundred
fifty million people. Really, we are a democracy that of
if you're in the right zip code, you make a
lot of big decisions. But that's pretty wild anyway. Those
are the districts. That's the math. If Virginia, the Virginia
(26:46):
lawsuit goes for Republican's way, if Florida goes Republican's way,
and if the South three districts were at two hundred
and nine seats, about there's fifteen seats to defend. There
are maybe like seventeen seats will be generous, seventeen seats
to defend, and there's so seven seats to go on
the offense. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the House.
It's not impossible to Republicans to get a majority. They
(27:10):
need to win about nine to ten out of twenty
two twenty three seats total twenty four seats. I mean,
we're all playing with like, is this really a swing seat?
Is this not really a swing seats. So I'm that's
why my numbers are changing a little bit. But about
ten seats to win out of twenty two twenty two,
twenty three, that's less than half. It actually shocked me
(27:34):
when I did this map because the conclusion that bygun
conclusion is not only is this impossible, but it is
going to be a twenty eighteen style wave. I don't
think we're there. I don't think we're there. I just
don't think the the maps have changed so much where
we would either have to see a Hillary Clinton style
or version of the Latina vote where we're losing Latinos
by fifty points. Kind of don't see that, and we
(27:56):
would have to see a map where there's just not
as many swing seats. That's the that's the point. There's
not that many swing seats left. We are in a
country where people basically live in a seat that's gonna
go one way or the other almost every time, with
very very very few exceptions. Okay, next up, Ask Me Anything.
(28:17):
Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If
you want to part of the Ask Me Anything segment
only Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. That's Ryan
at Numbers or a numbers gamepodcast dot com. Top of
the show, I told you about a personal victory. I
had a meal that I made because it was like
it was restaurant quality, like it was really good. I
made a pasta with broccoli sauce and a lemon chicken
(28:39):
that was legitimately ten out of ten. I'm not even
just bred like my guess is, jaws were on the floor.
That's how good it is. I want to tell you
about how to make it because it because the recipes
that I get, Like I when I give you a recipe,
I get so much positive feedback, and I want people
to eat good. I mean, life is too short to
have a bad meal. This is how you make it.
It's very simple. Basically, you take broccoli and olive oil.
(29:01):
You coat the whole bottom of a pan of pot
and olive oil. Throw broccoli in, Throw garlic. Don't even
cut the garlic nothing, don't drop the whole entire two
cloves of garlic. Put some salt, whatever spices you want,
a little, a little paprika, a little you know, a
little spice. Cup of water and you steam it and
you let it steam and you'll cook through the steaming.
Then you take cheese like parmesan and some Romano's cheese,
(29:24):
and you whip them together with an egg. So many
Italian recipes do not call for a dairy that you
think call for dairy, it's actually just cheese and eggs.
You whip them together with an egg. Once the broccoli
is cooked, you take the mash or whatebout's call it.
The I think that mashes the food. And you mash
the broccoli, and you mash the garlic, You throw the
cheese in, you mix them together. All this time, you've
(29:47):
boiled a pot of water with pasta in it. You
spoon the pasta into the into the pot with the
broccoli in it, and then you apply a cup or
not a cup, a spoonful, a ladleful of winter from
the pasta into the pot with a broccoli in it.
You whip them all together. You coat it with more
olive oil, a little more cheese, and that's basically it.
(30:09):
You mix it together. It's not it's amazing, it's incredible.
It's so good. It's pretty healthy for you. You have you know,
vitamins and fiber from the broccoli. It's not super heavy.
It's so delicious. And the chicken wait, this was incredible, guys.
So cut the chicken in half, you tenderize it, you
beat it with like a mallet or something like that.
You can use a wine bottle if you got nothing
else nothing I mean, if you got a wine bottle,
(30:31):
use a wine bottle. Who knows life's better with some wine.
You take, You throw two cups of butter in it.
You bread the chicken lightly with either like flour or
what I do, which is breadcrumbs, no egg on top,
but nothing. You just bread it as well sweat. You
throw it in with the melted butter. Cook them, and
then you take like Alfredo sauce with lemon in it.
You can make your own with heavy whipping cream, but
(30:53):
who's got time for that? You got just buy buy
Alfredo sauce with lemon in it. You coat that in
and you put in a cut or not a cup
half a cup of dry white wine. Together creates the
most incredible marinate. You just flip them over, cook them,
take them out, sprinkle the sauce that you made on top,
the juice you made on top, put a little cilantro.
(31:16):
That's it. That's all, guys. It was incredibly so good.
Not my Grandma's recipe, not the grandma's meat ball recipe,
but it was excellent, and some of you appreciate the
food recipes, so I'm going to keep giving them as
long as you appreciate them. Now it's time to go
back to the politics. Let's talk about questions from asking
me anything. First one comes from Brian. Brian writes, imagine
(31:36):
a world which of Bill Clinton opposed both the NAFTA
North American Free Trade Agreement and granting China permanent normal
trade relations, effectively blocking their entry into the WTO. In
this scenario, what does Americas electorate look like today? Do
soccer moms and Nascar dads can't even evolve as political
arc types? Does change narratives that propelled Obama to the
(31:58):
White House still resonate? Does a Hillary Clinton campaign succeed
without that specific policy baggage of her husband? Finally, would
that political inversion between parties that Alton benefit Trump have
ever taken place? Happy thirty ninth birthday, What an interesting question.
It's a lot to chew on. Obviously, we don't enter WTO,
(32:21):
we don't enter NAFTA, we don't have We will still
lose some manufacturing jobs as we did before those two things,
but we wouldn't see the huge plumb drop in manufacturing
jobs that we saw during really the Bush administration because
Bush made China a permanent member of the WTO likely.
(32:43):
I mean, I can't speak to every one of those scenarios.
I will say the one scenario that I would speak to,
because remember Obama's change was really about Iraq and the
financial crisis, not so much about the trade agreements. That
was all kind of in the background. Hillary and Trump
in that scenario, I would think Hillary would actually be
(33:04):
Trump if we had if miss if Trump did not
have the substantial loss of manufactory and the two decades
of the opioid crisis or a decade and a half
the opiad crisis, that fill that void for a lot
of people. I don't know if he wins, I don't
think he went Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin. Those jobs would
still be there, those people would still be blue collar workers.
(33:26):
And yeah, I think I've fed a lot when Trump.
I remember this so well. In twenty sixteen, Trump went
to I have a speech in Michigan saying that he
would tell the executives of the Ford Motor industry that
if they moved their cars to China or Japan. He
was going to put it on Mexico. He was going
to put a tariff so strong on their business it
(33:47):
would bankrupt them. And it was electricity in Michigan. So yeah,
would would that? Would that? Yeah? I don't Without that,
I don't know if he would win. I really don't.
I think. Here's the thing, and I wrote this in
my book. It's called They're not Listening. I actually have
a copyright next to me. You don't have to buy
it because it's out for years. I don't make any
money off of it. I mean you can. It's interesting.
(34:08):
You could listen to an audio tipe. I don't read it.
You don't hear my nasally voice. The thing about Trump
is the elite who hated him were the ones who
created him. The elite who can't stand him were the
media that gave him free advertising. And it was the
political class like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and George W.
(34:31):
Bush who hurt the livelihoods of the American people to
such a degree that they would vote for a reality
show star somebody who Now it seems like, of course,
Donald Trump, but eleven years ago absolutely not Yeah, they
created him. So if they didn't create him, if they
(34:52):
didn't do those things, the open borders, the endless wars, Iraq,
open borders, mass immigration, NAFTA, China, WTO. Without those things,
you don't get Donald Trump. You just don't. That's my opinion. Okay,
next question is I think the first. This question goes
from Michael by the way, he said, I really enjoy
your podcast with Ann Coulter. I frequently hear that political
(35:13):
violence is mostly right wing phenomenon. But I find this
hard to believe, especially given the size and scope of
the BLM and antifil rally since twenty twenty. How are
they deriving these numbers? Do all instances of violence count
the same? No, they do not. That's such a good question.
I was on Laura Ingram show about this one time.
So the way that the SPLC, which is the predominant group,
(35:35):
I know KATO had their own numbers, but KATO is
such a joke of an organization. SPLC is the one
that everyone kind of reaches to for the official numbers
on crime with political violence. The way that they do
it is if you are associated with anything that they
deem as right wing and you commit a crime at all.
(35:57):
It is there for right wing political violence. So, for instance,
I remember this very specifically. It was a case of
a man from New Hampshire who was in a Nazi
prison gang when he was in prison, gets out of
prison and kills his stepbrother for calling the police on
him for a different crime work. I think he shot
(36:18):
a gun out of his car into a neighborhood like
a stray bullet, didn't kill anybody, didn't urt anybody, but
the brother called the police and then he killed a brother.
There is no politics in that conversation at all. He
was doing it for any political reason, but the fact
that he belonged to a Nazi prison gang, and that
is deemed as a right wing political organization. According to
(36:38):
the SPLC, he committed a right wing targeted attack. No
one from the BLM riots who committed a crime, or
virtually no one who committed a crime, was ever counted
as political violence. David Dorn, the former policeman seventy seven
year old black policeman was murdered by BLM rioters was
(37:00):
counted as BLM insided violence or left wing violence at all.
They were like, Nope, doesn't count, doesn't count at all,
if you went to a BLM rally and then broke
a window, burned a building, beat somebody, murdered somebody. No,
it does not count as left wing violence. If you
belong to a gang in prison and that gang is white,
(37:23):
and you commit another crime out of prison, as many
former prisoners do, that is considered right wing political violence.
That's how they calculated it as utter and total nonsense.
That's why these organizations should not be trusted. These non profits,
they also don't count. By the way, they don't count
non homicidal crime. I remember twenty sixteen, I was in
(37:43):
my late twenties. If I remember in Chicago and the
Trump supporters were going to Chicago to see Trump speak
and they were attacked. I remember where that woman was, like,
I think it was in California. They threw eggs at her.
Those are acts of political violence that they are not homicidal,
but they are not counted as left wing political violence.
So also, by the way, you know who's not count
(38:03):
as left wing political violence. Luigi yep, Luigi Mangione is
not considered left wing political violence because he doesn't have
a quote ideology. Okay, you also wrote, by the way,
you email the NFL draft pick. I know nothing about sports,
so I can't even read that question because I'm going
to sound like a moron. Last question comes from Trevor.
(38:24):
He writes, I hope you had a great birthday. I did,
Thank you. Trevor, He says, do you think it'd be
a great good idea to amend the Constitution so that
any effort to increase or expand immigration must be passed
by a majority of voters in a nationwide ballot referendum.
I understand that the founding fathers weren't huge fans of
direct democracy, but I think that who lives here and
who votes here is too important that Americans should get
(38:47):
a say. Also, the form more population in the US
is now, it's May fifteen to sixty percent of the
total population. Do you think that we should set caps
on what the percentage of the US population forum born
should be? If he yes, which the percentage be? Those
are very smart questions. Let's start with the referendum first. No,
I don't think of that showing for a referendum, because
(39:08):
there are just times when there is you know, unforeseen
instances where immigration flows up. Let's say Canada is invaded.
I'm just making up a making a random thing. But
we have to take in refugees from Canada and mass
immigration is expanded, or we have a situation where there
(39:29):
is something we need a group of people. We can't
wait for a national referendum. National referendums in a nation
like ours, I don't think really work. It's too big,
it's too diverse. They work sometimes in places like Leechenstein
or Switzerland, and even when they are national referendums, like
in Switzerland, they had one on capping immigration, and what
(39:51):
happened was after the people voted for it, it then
went on to it was watered down when it was applied,
so they didn't even get where they wanted. So no,
no referendum. Should there be a cap on the form
on one population, Yes, there should. I would say it
should never exceed Well, I would say it should never
exceed fifteen percent, but we're already over that, so fifteen
percent we got to work our way down. Anyway. I
(40:14):
have more great stuff coming up next. On Friday's episode,
new birth data once again showing Trump's immigration policies are working.
It is happening. We are seeing declines of immigration. We
have that and so much more. If you like this podcast,
please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast
where every tip of this podcast, or if you're watching
on YouTube, press subscribe and click the ball so you
(40:34):
don't miss any episodes. I appreciate you all. Have a
great Wednesday. Everybody,
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