August 12, 2026 • 43 mins
Is President Trump searching for an off-ramp in the Iran war — and what happens if America continues burning through its military and energy reserves?
On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky breaks down the growing strategic questions surrounding the Iran conflict, including the depletion of U.S. missile stockpiles, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the enormous daily cost of the war, and whether America could still respond effectively if China made a move against Taiwan.
Then, Ryan dives into an extended Ask Me Anything episode covering some of the biggest political questions facing Republicans and Democrats.
Could Republicans build a new “red wall” in Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire? How important are independent voters in those battleground states? Could James Talarico make Texas competitive? What does the rise of Democratic Socialists mean for the future of the Democratic Party?
Ryan also weighs in on Republican outreach to Catholic voters, the growing debate over Israel within conservative politics, Abdul El-Sayed and the DSA, Ron DeSantis’ potential path back to national relevance, how modern polling works without landlines, and what went wrong for Andy Ogles in Tennessee.
SUBSCRIBE for more political analysis, polling, demographics, elections, and the numbers shaping American politics.
Follow Clay & Buck on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuck
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Urdusky. Thank
you guys for being here. We have a special episode
today because I have an extra long ask me anything segment.
I want to answer your questions. I realized I was
looking at the inbox, like, Wow, I'm getting up there
and you need to start answering. Somebody's asked me anythings.
I'm sure a lot of you were very patiently waiting.
I do have a few breaking news items that I
think are critical, and no one's addressing them. I think
(00:24):
on the right in a very thorough way. So the
Iran war is making obviously a lot of news for
very obvious reasons. But it seems like it seems like
while the President is looking for an exit ramp. That's
according to both sources that I know in near the
White House and publications. A source close to mine told
(00:46):
me that President Trump made it known from the get
go he had a hard line. He was never going
to support a ground invasion of Iran. He always had
that off the table. I know Trump likes to say
there's nothing off the table. Everything is on the table.
That was a really bad Trump impersonation. I wasn't even trying,
but he always says nothing is off the table. But
that is Trump's negotiating tactic because he feels like he
(01:09):
says something's off the table. He's negotiating from a place
of weakness. But in his head and in inner circles,
there are certain things that are very clearly off the table.
But so ground troops, a ground invasion of Iran was
off the table. According to Semaphore or the website Semaphore,
which is a decent news website, Trump is looking for
an off ramp without letting Iran win and realizing he
(01:33):
is realizing unconditional surrender is not going to happen. Like
it's just we cannot bomb our way to an unconditional surrender.
And there's no Kurdish invasion, there's no there's no ground
invasion that I think Prime Minister Nettnia who was selling
could happen or would happen. And the interesting thing to me,
(01:54):
I was thinking about this the other day. You know
that guy who's the Prince of Iran, the Prince of Iran,
Reza Palvi I think his last name is. He has
done a ton of media about Iran and about that
he's the prince, and you know, we don't have a
prince in this country. I don't have a king of
this country, so or shaw in their case. So it's
a very it's not a relationship. I very easily understand. However,
(02:18):
if you are the prince and you feel like you
have a rightful God given you know, God give you,
It gave you the right to become sovereign over these
people and reign over these people, and you have this
compact with your with your subjects, why doesn't this prince
(02:38):
just go to some of the multiple private army companies
and rent an army, like, offer them money off of
Iran's oil commitments for the future airdrop an army into
Tehran and take it over, and you know, just take
over the country. He would have full US support probably
and Israel support, and they would probably give him the
(03:00):
air coverage he would need. None of these people have
any bravery, is my point? Like this, this is so
so many people are like I I'm not just him,
but other people in other areas of life, like I
have the rightful thing to do this or I'm supposed
to be this, and they're just ballless, they don't do anything.
I mean, he actually could probably seize his country if
he risked his life. But if you really believe you
(03:21):
are the rightful heir, you risk your life for that stuff,
and you believe that you know that a higher being
is on your side. Anyway, Trump understands that without a
ground invasion by some other force, not America's, an overthrow
of the reigning government is not logical. Iran set on
a list of demands to reopen the straft for moves
(03:42):
they are absolutely unacceptable to the United States's standpoint. They
demand a withdrawal of the US naval blockade, they pay
Iranian damages for the war, They unfreeze Iranian assets, they
lift sanctions on Tehran and permally end the conflict against
Iran and regional allies. It's like never gonna happen. But
Trump at this point has two very big data points
(04:04):
that is whispering and circulating inside the Oval Office and
the White House that I think he's thinking about it.
And it's not inflation and it's not internal polls. Those though,
are very important, but it's a more strategic issue. The
first is our strategic petroleum reserves fell for the first
time since nineteen eighty three, before I was even born.
(04:27):
Under three hundred million barrels. This is after Trump released
one hundred and seventy two million bowels back in March
to relieve oil high oil prices. Another six point one
million of that one to seventy two was released over
the week, so we have under three hundred million barrels now.
The Energy Department says that all we only need seventy
(04:49):
million barrels to operate safely, but that is a big drop.
Back in two thousand and nine, there was over seven
hundred and twenty seven million barrels in the spr in
the strategic petroleum. That's a sixty percent drop since two
thousand and nine in the last sixteen seventeen years. That's
not great. Now, it's not a red alarm sign like,
(05:09):
oh my gosh, we need to panic because the oil
petroleum reserves are so low, but they're not headed in
the correct direction. And if the off ram doesn't happen,
do we eventually fall under two hundred million? Like how
long does that three hundred million exist to relieve the stress?
Since oil prices are high and he gave up a
third of what was already there back in March, does
(05:31):
he give up another third? Because we're still over seventy million.
It's a big concern. There was also another report over
the week that is another big warning sign for the
president as far as how long this war can go.
News story broke over the week from CBS News that
the US global stockpile of long range precision missiles has
(05:52):
depleted because of the war. They were they were stare
desperate right now to try to build them as fast
as possible. These are very technologically savvy and advanced missiles.
They can't just be built, you know, in twenty four hours.
The presidents deny these claims. He says that they have
plenty and he's going to go after the two whistle
blowers who leaked the story. But I kind of do
(06:14):
believe the story is there because there's another organization called
the Center for Strategic International Studies, which is one of
the premier military nonprofits in the world. They said that
the US missile stockpile, though it remains classified, is estimated
to have between seven hundred and fifty nine and eight
hundred and twenty seven Patriot missiles left. That is a
(06:36):
third of the two thousand, three hundred and thirty that
existed before the conflict in ern It's estimated that the
US has now used up to sixty percent of high
terminal altitude area defense missiles, which are deployed to intercept strikes.
That's not great that we only have forty percent left,
and it's not just this war, but we were already
(06:57):
using and giving away a significant amount of those missiles
to Ukraine during their war with Russia. So we've been
giving them away and then using them. According to a
report by the Center for Strategic International States, we've also
severely severely depleted the number of Tomahawk missiles and it
won't be ready like the number we need, which is
over three thousand, won't be ready until twenty thirty one.
(07:21):
Now we are developing new missiles. Time magazine report that
we're in talks with private companies for five new kinds
of missiles, but it takes twelve to eighteen months to
test those missiles, and the war is costing US nine
hundred million dollars a day. Think about that. Conservatives need
to have an honest conversation. We are understand that the
(07:43):
deficit and the debt is ballooning nine hundred million dollars
a day. A depleted strategic petroleum reserve depleted arsenal. These
are not great things. Away from just the need York
reaction of polls and politics from election cycle to election cycle,
(08:04):
this is long term ramifications. What happens in the midst
of all of this. If China decides they need to
seize Tewan, Taiwan, are we even still able to defend it.
I know we have a large navy that could be there.
I know our naval games have said that we would
win that Nava battle. It would cost us a lot,
(08:24):
it would cost us a ton of stuff. But if
we're already depleting all of our reserves, how much more
can we afford to deplete before that becomes a serious
threat that we can't defend Taiwan? Because if China were
to take Taiwan, they sees all the important ship production
for the world, and it's basically game set match, like
(08:46):
they have the complete upper hand on technological advancements. They
could completely strain us from all technological innovation. I mean,
it would be chaos, true and outer chaos, and it
would take as a years, any years and years to
get to where we're supposed to be after that. I
mean it's a big it's a big gamble, and we've
(09:08):
seen in the past and history countries that have over
committed their defenses, over committed their offenses, it hasn't worked
for them. So I think that that all looms in
the background as to why some type of negotiation anything
to get the shrift form moves open and to stop
the bombing campaign so we give rebuild our arsenal and
(09:30):
rebuild our petroleum reserves is absolutely the most important right now.
That's I mean, because it all comes down to the
fact that we could not do something that was important
for our sake, really important, like protect Taiwan. Okay, Next
up a very long asked Me Anything. Stay tuned now
it's time for the ask Me Anything segment. If you
(09:50):
want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment,
emailing Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan at
numbers Plural Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. First question comes from Jose.
Jose said, I love during Evan Barker. As someone who
doesn't know the ins and outs of campaigns, I find
it fascinating when level listen to a two hour podcast.
I love Evan Barker. We've texted since then. She's told
me a lot of democratic consultants have been reaching out
(10:12):
to her about her book and stuff. I want to
have her on to talk about those those kinds of
conversations with Democratic consultants right now. It's really funny. The
one thing about Evan is really funny. Evan will apologize.
I asked Evan if she ever met Francesca Hang, the
crazy lady from Wisconsin, and she goes, no, But I
trained her fundraisers like I trained them to do with
(10:33):
their job and then show it back dot do dot,
I'm sorry, and like you don't have to keep apologizing,
like this is very strange, Like you don't have to
do that all right anyway. Next, the other question was,
here's my question. Churning Point in USA has presented the
quote unquote red wall strategy. Essentially, they believe that they
can put resources in Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire and
make it nearly impossible for Democrats to compete in those states,
similar to blue walls for Republicans. They cite voter registration
(10:56):
trends and recent election victories or losses by a lot
less doing a quick quick chat GPT search, it seems
like they've compared it to a decade ago, Republicans have
gained a lot or have even surpassed Democrats and voter
registration in these states. They've also started to win e
winning either statewide by bigger margins such as anti big
in the recent Arizona governor's primary, or losing less and competing.
(11:19):
I believe Nevada, a Republican, lost the Senate seat in
twenty twenty four by a small margin. What are your
thoughts on the red wall strategy? Are their trends still
in Republican favor or more resources needed in those states? Finally,
how long will it take to firmly entrench yourself in
a state to affect elections? That is a great, really
detail a question. Okay, let's go state by state, so
(11:42):
we'll start with Nevada. Nevada, back in twenty sixteen, Democrats
had a voter registration advantage of eighty eighty eight hundred
and eighteen. Back in twenty sixteen. Today that means that
Bye Bay, That means there's eighty eighty eight hundred and
eighteen more Democrats than Republicans. That doesn't include independence. As
of today, Democrats have a voter role advantage of one thousand,
(12:06):
eight hundred and thirty seven. So Republicans over the last
decade have registered ninety two thousand new voters and Democrats
have only rested five thousand. They've only netted five thousand
new ones. But here's the thing about Nevada. There are
nearly as many independents as Democrats and Republicans combined. There's
(12:27):
one point one six million Democrats and Republicans and nine
hundred and thirty thousand independents. So it's great that Republicans
have chipped away a Democrat voter advantage. As if the
Democrat if the independent number is that large, it doesn't
really matter because you need them to win the independent
vote because it's so overwhelmingly high. The Republicans have a governor.
(12:53):
I believe they have a few statewide office holders in Nevada.
This is an important election where they need to win more.
They need to be able to have enough a statewide
elected officials to basically have people run in twenty thirty
to replace the governor, especially for redistricting. It's very important,
but also to build a farm team and do stuff.
(13:15):
It's not that they just have to win the offices.
They have to have office holders who care about electing
Republicans down ballid. Larry Hogan cared about doing that. He
was one of the Republicans who actually worked hard for
Republicans down ballad versus like Chris Christy who never cared
how Republicans down ballid did. Another one the governor of
(13:39):
Vermont whose name just on my mind, Phil Scott. Phil
Scott works really hard for Republicans to get elected in Vermont.
Believe it or not, des by being so liberal, He's
actually fighting for Republicans down ballid versus like there have
been many. I don't know. I don't think that Paul
Lapag did a very big effort to get Republicans elect
(13:59):
down ballot. Maybe he did, I don't know. Charlie Baker
perfect example. Charlie Baker over in Massachusetts, never worked for Republicans.
He didn't care what happened in the Republican party as
long as he was popular. Great examples where you not
only need the state wide elected, but you needed to
work hard on behalf of the party. Next day was Arizona.
You mentioned Republicans have three hundred and thirteen thousand more
(14:20):
voters than Democrats, do you, but independents are nearly tie
with Republicans. So there are thirty thousand more Republicans and independence.
But what that says is yes, if a DSA style
cant ran in Arizona, they would probably lose, so long
as they weren't running against like a carry Lake who
(14:40):
turns up independence by thirty something points. You can win
Arizona without winning independence, but you can't lose them by
more than like five or six points. And the biggest
irony thinking about Arizona, the biggest irony was if we
could go back in time and change a few things
which I know we can't put let's play. Let's play
(15:01):
a game and say we can. If we went back
to twenty twenty two and Trump did not make that
election about that, the twenty twenty election was stolen and
did not and Roe v. Wade had not been overturned,
Republicans probably would have netted three US Senate seats nationwide,
maybe four, And in twenty twenty four, had Joe Biden
not dropped out, Republicans would have also netted another four
(15:25):
Senate seats. We would have sixty Senate seats right now,
so we would be able to pass the Save America Act.
Had those two or three three things not happened. Had
Trump not made the twenty twenty two election, about twenty
twenty and abortion not been overturned, and had Biden stated
in the race of twenty twenty four, Republicans would have
sixty season the Senate right now, it is very very
strange how a few things can change a big, big,
(15:47):
you know election. So anyway, yeah, you could win Arizona,
but not win them about losing independence by too much.
And lastly, in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is very unique.
New Hampshire is this that is the most Republican state
on the local level, governor, state legislature, all the rest
of it, with no Republicans elected to the federal government.
(16:10):
So Republicans complete control of the state government and no
control in the federal government is very very unusual. We'll
see if Johnson UNU can pull out a miracle against
Chris poppas for the US in New Hampshire, but it's
a very unusual thing where the party is extremely popular
locally and not popular at all federally that state. Though
(16:33):
New Hampshire Republicans have a forty eight thousand almost forty
nine thousand voter advantage over Democrats, much higher than what
they had in twenty sixteen or the only twenty thousand,
but they lost both years. Why sixty three thousand more
Independents than Republicans. So it's a state where once again
you cannot win without the independent vote. It's like Nevada,
(16:56):
and it's it just is And I think why Nevada
went in Republican twenty twenty four and New Hampshire didn't,
although New Hampshire came very close. Their Independence are a
lot of college educated whites. Nevada Republican Nevada Independence are
a lot of non college educated Hispanics. That makes a
huge difference. Okay, next question is, are Shannon are Shana
(17:18):
writs Ken James tall Rico really pulled this off. If so,
do you think the Gopeople finally understand they have a
ground game and not just hope for the best and
play on the pass. That's a great way of putting it.
Can he win? Yes, he can, James Hilaric, We can win.
Republicans in Texas need to work and Ken Paxton needs
to work. And when he was on this podcast, I
(17:38):
was really like I was telling him over again, how
can you show Republicans you're gonna work. Jesse Waters on
Fox News saying, you know where is Ken Paxton. You
need to work. We can't win this election for you.
And he needs to pull out the big guns. And
he needs every person who doesn't like socialism possible, every moderate,
every independent who's a moderate, someone who's a light Democrat,
(18:02):
Like you can't turn away any voter at all under
any circumstances. Do not only play to the bass. It's
not enough people. People forget back. In twenty eighteen, Beto o'
rourke when he was running his head cruise and came
very close to beating him, he only won by two points.
There were only two poles showing that Beta was leading.
Right now, almost every pole shows Paston's losing. In twenty eighteen,
(18:27):
Paxston barely won. He won by three and a half
points statewide against a nobody with no money. He lost
in that election three congressional Republican districts and almost lost
four more. So, yeah, he's got to work. I mean,
there's nothing to it, like, there's no there's He's not
gonna win it by just being Trump endorsed. And I
(18:49):
know he's getting more message out there about the economy
and stuff like that. But he's got to really be
selling this and selling this hard. Okay, next question goes
from Brock brox is, I'm on a walk listening to
your Friday. So about those abysmal approval Trump numbers. What
keeps coming to me is that as God warned us
or the Old Testament, we will we will forget. I
still think he needs to be an ad blast vert
(19:11):
visually showing all the reasons we voted for DJG last time,
crazy ass cultural changes leftist made on how Trump was
attempted to legislate them out of existence, closing the border,
and how we help reduce crime and overcrowding in the
housing market, FETNOL reduction across the border, stronger police sing
for everyone. Yes, the problem is people's memories are short.
I look on those images of Okay, yeah, that is
(19:36):
one hundred percent true, and people do have a short
term memory. I mean I do too. There are things
I forget I memory hole from COVID, from Biden getting elected,
from Obama, which was like a million years ago. And
he needs less about the past, although that's important. Really
(19:58):
about what he can do in the future, and what's
the message in the future is having this big convention
in Dallas. What can you do to sell thembout the future?
And a big part of this election will come down
to two things. One the economy and two what do
people care more about? Do they fear Dsay taking over
the country or hate Trump. That's a it's a big
it's a big debate over fear versus hate. Last question
(20:20):
before the break. Okay, this comes from Trevor. Trevor says,
since you are a Catholic, I wanted to get your
thoughts on a couple of things. Oh boy, religion, here
we go. Uh. First, with the Democratic Party increasing in
becoming a party of Seculary, socialist and Islamo kamis, should
the GOP do more to outreach and speak directly to
Catholic voters. Catholics have been drinking towards the GP for
(20:41):
a while, but are not overwhelmingly like they are with Evangelicals.
That is true, Catholic white Catholics are very Republican, but
you have to remember Catholics are a lot more diverse
than Evangelicals. There's Latino Catholics. There are a lot of
Asian Catholics like Filipinos. There are a ton of African
Catholics who are moving here Haitians are Catholic. Like that
(21:04):
is a much more diverse coalition Racially, A lot of
Catholics also still belong to unions, and Catholics tend to
also be less orthodox. There's been a lot of studies
about what you know, Catholics, what parts of the faith
the Catholic Church agrees with disagrees with, And a lot
of it is like very essential parts that a huge
(21:25):
chunk of the Catholic Church, not the church, but like
the congregates do disagree with, like is the Eucharist the
Body of Christ? Like they I think it's like a
twenty five percent disagree with that. So that's that's pretty bad.
Like that's pretty They have a lot to go work
with to bring their flock in line with their teach
essential parts they're teaching, not even like culture war or
(21:46):
political parts they're teaching. What they should do is emphasize
Catholic education. Catholics love our schools. Do Catholic schools overperform
public schools? And I think basically every kind of school
Catholic schools. I think right after COVID they said if
Catholic schools were their own state. They would be the
(22:06):
number one state in the country by like light years
ahead of everybody else. So I think emphasizing the need
to protect Catholic education would be a good way to
reach Catholics. You also say, is there more to be gained?
My second question is there are a handful of very
recent converse Catholicism that used their new found Catholic faith
(22:26):
as a vehicle to push an anti Israel agenda. They
act as though they speak for all Catholics and have
the audacity to question the faith of other Christians, mostly
Protestants that disagree with them. That is rich coming from
these people who all have skeletons in their closet of
their own and aren't acting very christ Like in how
they conduct themselves. I am a lifelong Protestants, so I
don't have a deep understanding the Catholic theology. But I
(22:48):
want to ask, do these people speak for you and
for other Catholics? You know, is anti Zionism and anti
Semitism a widespread sentiment in the Catholic community. Thank you
for your response. Oh boys, s Trevor, you are You're like,
let's open up a can of worms. So this is
a very complicated question because remember, the Catholic Church is
(23:08):
a unified entity. It is not like the Protestants that
have a million different, you know, segments, and we are
a global church, so speaking for us as a global
thing is very difficult. I'm going to speak as a
what the Church doctrine is and then what American Catholics do.
So the Church doctrine says that they do not recognize
(23:31):
the modern state of Israel as being the same as
the historic Kingdom of Israel where Christ lived or where
King David was. The King of Christ didn't live in
the Kingdom of Israel. He lived in a Roman state.
But whatever that, the ancient state of Israel is not
the modern state. The Catholic Church does not believe that.
At the same time, the Catholic Church teaches that God's
(23:53):
compact with the Jewish people can never be broken, so
they are still God's chosen people. And even though Christ
came to the earth and die for our sins, and
you know, no one goes to heaven without Jesus and
all the rest of it. So that is a very
Catholic for dummies answer, but that is the very basics
of it. There are a lot of Catholics globally who
(24:16):
do not like the Israel, the state of Israel, and
the government of Israel. And that is true in Europe
and Africa and Latin America and basically everywhere in the
world doesn't like Israel, aside from America. But no one
likes them as much as Evangelicals in America. The difference
is I don't think Catholics are engaged period. Israel is
(24:42):
not a giant issue for us. It's just not like
it's great to go there. It's great to visit, it's
great to see historical sites. The Israeli government preserving those
sites is great, better than a Muslims Muslim leader who
would destroy them. But yet sta it is not like
the Israel. The feelings towards Israel among Catholics is not
(25:05):
as intense as they are among em the joke. It
does not mean that they hate them, They just don't
have any strong commitments or feelings to them. I think, though,
there is a very large difference between criticizing the government
of Israel and what some people are doing these newly
converted Catholics, where they are using purposeful language to dehumanize
(25:28):
Jews and going to wild conspiracy theories that are both
insane and disgusting. And I think that that's really the
dividing line you as a conscious American, if you read
things to be tried on them, you should be able
to criticize the government of Israel or what or American
(25:49):
Israeli relations. You should be allowed to have those kinds
of conversations. You should not use dehumanizing language about Jews
to do it, like one should not just by the other.
It's like the Christ is King thing. Yes, you can
believe it, and you can espouse it as a Catholic
or as a Christian or whatever. You should not use
(26:10):
it and then use it as an attack line for Jews.
There is no difference between doing that and using God's
name in vain. Like there's no different because you're not
actually using it. And like the term crisis king is
a little unusual in the Catholic doctrine because the term
is usually Christ the King. That goes back a thousand
plus years. In Catholic liturgy, they use Christ the King,
(26:34):
not Christ is King. So it's a very small change,
but it's a very interesting one that those people use. Anyway,
I don't talk about Israel at all those people don't
speak for me. I don't know many Catholics they speak for.
I would say this faith is a journey, it's not
a guilt trip. I don't know if they're authentic in
(26:54):
their conversion or if they're using it as a mantle
to do things. I don't know why you would be
Catholic to do that, but you know it would be
much more interesting. I guess if you were a Jewish
convert about Jews like I don't know, it doesn't I
don't know why they're using the faith to do that.
I hope that they get to a better place. I
don't talk about Israel a lot on this podcast because personally,
(27:15):
I have a lot of Jewish friends, and I know
how sensitive they are right now. I know how on
edge they are right now. And even though I have
criticism about bb net, Yahoo's leadership and something's Israel's done,
I'm not piling on in this moment like they have
enough people with daggers out against them where they feel
like they're being attacked by anybody. I love my Jewish friends.
(27:36):
I don't need them. I don't need to be another
voice to make them feel like this I talk about
with polling. But besides that, I'm not going to jump
in and add to the dogpile. It's just not appropriate
at this time. And a lot of those people are
really gross. It is really gross whenever you weaponize your
religion to harm others, it's not the point of a religion.
(27:59):
And it happens among all religions, different faiths, different creeds,
different you know, people with no religion. They do like
to demonize and weaponize to attack others, and that in
self is not very Christ's life. Like, Okay, more asked
Me Anything coming up next? Now it's time for more
Asked Me Anything? Next question comes from Christopher christmas Is.
I really liked your podcast about the veck. I especially
(28:19):
hate when people on our side of the right claim
that America is just an idea and we should let
everyone in. I also can't stand the Republican politicians pushing
from mass amnesty, like Maria Elvi or Salazar. Yes, don't
these dumb Republicans realize it would be the end of
the Republican Party. No, they do not. That is a
great part of the problem, Christopher. They do not. My
Congressman Lloyd Smucker supports mass amnesty too. I'm going to vote,
(28:42):
but what should I do? Lloyd Smucker, for those who
don't know, represents Lancaster, Pennsylvania. This is not a state,
part of the country with a huge illegal alien population.
They have more homish than they do illegals. Lloyd is
the worst. I mean, he's awful. I mean there's no
notice say he is awful, and he somebody that might
pack Homeland pack would love to find a credible challenger
(29:04):
to spend money against him in twenty twenty eight. He's
a terrible fundraiser. He can't raise a lot of money,
and the district is changing very quickly as a lot
of people from like the Maryland area are moving to
south southeast Pennsylvania. In Philadelphia, people moving southast Pennsylvania. I
would and I love Lancaster. I've actually, you know, owned
(29:25):
property there. I love Lancaster. It's a great area. I
would say you should do this. He is overwhelmingly favored
to win, so like, vote for him, don't vote for him.
It's not going to change the election. He's going to
win reelection. What I would do, though, is I would
either become a Republican committeeman and push a vote as
(29:45):
a committeeman to censor him and to condemn him in
the Republican Party for his support from mass Amnestein, to
at least get the message out to people that he
does support mass Amnestein. Or I would volunteer for a
challenge you're in the next primary because that seat is
a pretty safe Republican seat and it could absolutely flip.
As of right now, it's still a safe Republican seat,
(30:07):
So I would one hundred percent do that. He's awful,
You're right. Next question comes from Elizabeth Elizaba's is Ryan.
I love your podcast. I love you, Elizabeth. I never
miss it and listen to every episode more than once. Elizabeth,
you are getting a gold star today. I have recommended
to so many people and they love it to you.
Keep with the good work. My question is about the
division and the Democratic Party with the DSA poaching so
many long standing Democrats. Could I think you mean not poaching,
(30:31):
because that means they're not taking them. I think you
mean poaching their seats. I think that's what you're saying.
They're not converting to DSA all the ones. I think
you're saying take their seats. Could this not be very
good for the Republican Party. If the mainstream Dems get
disgusted with the far left DSA contingent and the far
left group will not support anyone near the center or
anyone with a good word to say about Israel or
the Jews. Might there is a lot of Jew conversation
(30:52):
not being in this episode. Might not this divide help
the Republican voting numbers? A three party system seems to
me that it would benefit the right. What do you
think you mean if there was a traditional Democratic party,
traditional Republican and traditional do you say, I don't know.
I don't Yes, if there was two liberal parties and
(31:13):
one center right party, yes, that would help the Republican Party.
That's not going to happen. I don't think so. Like
take the recent vote to defund military equipment from Israel.
It got a lot of Democratic votes one hundred and
three and two years ago got thirty seven. That's a
big increase. However, a majority of Demos in the House
(31:36):
still voted to fund Israel. So they're not at the
place yet where they've taken over taken over, and I
would emphasize that we will late after November. I don't
think it's going to happen. Let's see if any of
those Democrats who were like I'm a centrist, Let's see
if they leave the Democratic Party. I don't think they do.
I think they're all show and no go. I don't
(31:58):
think they're actually going to leave when push comes to stuff.
Maybe Federerman would, Maybe Federman would become an independent because
he can't win as a Democrat anymore. Aside from him,
I don't see any of them leaving. They're all going
to take marching orders. They're all lemmings. Look at what
happened over in Michigan. Haley Stevens, probably the most vocal
support of Israel in the entire state of Michigan. On
(32:23):
the Democratic Party endorsed abdul l said the next day
after she lost her primary by one point. So did
malloym mcmarrowe. They endorsed him the next day. These people
have no fundamental beliefs at all. What's going to hurt
these DSA candidates is not just their hatred of Israel.
(32:44):
That might bring a lot of Jews over, and Jews
are coming at the Republican Party. That's why it would
be really good thing not to turn them away by
being anti semitic to anyone who's a podcast hosts who
is just raging about the Jews left and right. But
the one thing that is the one thing that will
turn them off is that to be a member of
the DSA, you have to have a level of brokenness
(33:07):
in your brain in the sense that you believe the
assault of whiteness is so great and so stifling that
even though you live in a capitalist, white majority country
that has made you a millionaire. In the case of
abdulah said, he's a very very wealthy man. He owns
multiple rental property. I think his rental property income is
(33:27):
north of three hundred thousand dollars a year. That's just
rental property income. He's fabulously wealthy, very successful. But because
he's fundamentally broken, and he has third world romanticism in
the sense that he sees third world people pre Western
colonialism as being the ideal, even though that they didn't
have the wheel in most places and didn't have you know,
(33:50):
I don't know, toiletry or like a plumbing or any
anything that makes the civilization civilized. They had none close
to none of it. He anticizes them. So Al Dulasaid's
problem with voters is not going to be that. He
just you know, praised the dictator of Iran after he
got murdered. No, his problem is he wanted to ban
(34:12):
fireworks on fourth of July. Why because he hates Westernism,
So anything that celebrates the greatness of white Protestant settlers
in America can't celebrate that anymore. He also claim that
football was linked to white supremacy in one of his
old videos. You have to be broken to even spend
(34:34):
your time thinking about that, Like your brain has to
have such a level of rot that you see people
throwing around a football and be like, how do I
relate this to white supremacy. There's no functioning way a
normal person's brain takes something like that and connects it.
You could say, I wonder how these you know, these
great athletes brains working to get hit in the head
(34:55):
a million times. You could could make a million different
critical ideas about football. You can't sit there and say, oh,
this is really like white supremacy, and you know, we
should really we should take down this symbol of white supremacy.
Get out of here. There's a reason he is campaigning
with Hassan Piker. It's not just because Hassan Piker is like,
you know, hates America as well, even though he's a
(35:17):
fabulously wealthy, closeted individual, you know, living in a gated community.
He is fabulously wealthy because he says things like America
deserves nine to eleven. And you know, no one is
as wealthy in this country as someone selling socialis into
the masses. Nobody. It is very, very ironic. Okay, next question,
(35:39):
I'm sorry I was on that tirade, but I just
I couldn't. Next question comes from will Hey, Ryan, love
your show and super glad it's growing alongside your newsletter.
I was catching up on the summer episodes and caught
one late July about Mark where we were not seeking
any nomination in twenty twenty eight. In that insight, you
mentioned Ted Cruz and Ram Paul as people who are
building a twenty twenty eight apparatus. Finally, you mentioned Rhonda
Santas is kind of those things. He's like, I think
(36:01):
the Santas is looking for how he stays involved in
the conversation. Remember, it's very difficult. The window to run
for president is very narrow, and once it closes, oftentimes
unless your name is Richard Nixon. It closes for good.
So to be the former governor of a state and
being a fabulous governor to Santa, this is a great governor.
I'm not I'm not. I'm not trashing to say this.
(36:23):
His ability to be a governor at all. He probably
a great president, nothing bad to say to him, but
to be a governor from twenty twenty, from twenty eighteen
to twenty twenty six, in twenty twenty eight, in twenty
thirty two, how are you relevant? There's always a shinier
penny up the block in life, but in politics is
(36:44):
one hundred percent true. There's always a shinier penny. You
are the biggest name and then you are forgotten in
the blink of an eye. So if you do not
run when the when, when it's scolding hot, it's it's over.
My question is about a path forward for dis Sanda
is in a party that will almost certainly have an
identity crisis post Trump. To me, a lot depends on
(37:06):
the upcoming midterms. We saw Dissanta's as the strongest national
position post twenty twenty two. Obviously, he's been a roller
coaster for the GUP ever since. So with that Rubio,
what's the path for run as a potential primary with Vance,
Cruz and others or in general. His Florida record is great,
but I think it will only lose whatever influence it
has as we are further away from woke covid era.
Is he better sitting down twenty twenty in the event
(37:27):
of a GOP loss coming back in twenty thirty two.
I can't think of that instance when somebody lost two
primaries and then became president for a third run great observation.
What I would do is if I was advising dis Santas,
which I'm not, I would say, look, the President's not
going to endorse you for president. His endorsement's going to
mean a lot. JD. If he runs is going to
(37:50):
have the Trump apparatus, which is a billion dollar apparatus.
And I don't know anyone who is going to give
another one hundred million dollars to Desantas after he did
not win Iowa last time. What I would do is
I would say this, go to Vance if that's your
chosen candidate, or go to Cruise if that's your chosen
(38:12):
Canada or whomever. Bet On the winning horse is very important,
though so probably advance and say I would like to
campaign for you. I would like to be on your team.
I will like to do everything. I'll fundraise for you
everything that I can do. I will move to Georgia.
I will live in Georgia and get South Georgia to
show up at seventy percent all the people who live
(38:35):
between Georgia and Florida. Get them to vote in huge
numbers for you, to make sure Georgia stays red. But
I want to be Secretary of Defense. I want to
be Secretary of State. I want to be something, some
high profile job. A problem for Desanta's is Floridians have
(38:57):
this opinion that everyone wants to live in Florida and
it's great. I'm here on vacation right now. I'm in Pensacola.
It's a lovely place. That's not true. Not everyone wants
to live in Florida. And his message was to Florida Centric,
build a brand that is national, that is part of
the team. You weren't rebellions Trump and in that time
(39:19):
that there may be a Republican president or not so,
or you're just viewed as a member of the party,
a part of the team, someone working for the brand
like Nixon did for Barry Goldwar in sixty four. No
one worked harder for Gold War in sixty four than Nixon,
which won Nixon a lot of credibility. Among the basins
(39:40):
for sixty eight win the credibility of the base back
campaigned harder for the Republican than any person alive. And
once that happens, Once you do that, then think about
running build that brand a over. You essentially have to
start not from zero, but start all over again. I
think that's how you you do it. He's a young man,
(40:01):
he has time. He can still do this and still
keep his name in the show. Okay, last question, second
to last question comes from JD. He says, a great podcast.
I've listened to your episode since you launched. Thank you, JD.
I have a question about future polling. As landline telephones
become less commonplace and fewer people answer cell phone calls
from unknown numbers, how do polsters adapt? Okay, great question.
(40:23):
So a lot of posters have done text messages. Now
they'll text you if you're interested in polling, which reduces
the amount of time and they and they'll match your
phone number to your voter ID form. That's a big way.
A lot of them do through the internet. A lot
of posters have also be got to pay people to
answer their polling to find there the people who are
(40:49):
less likely to answer to get them on the phone.
You know, people got a college degree, people who are
not super engaged. So all those things are how they've
already kind of closed it. Very few even you use
landlines mostly anymore at all. It's very rare that they
even use. If they do use landlines, it's for you know,
a small, small percentage of numbers at this point. Okay,
(41:11):
last question is my buddy Peter Foma, Peter fumber Goes.
What happened Annie Ogles? Any Ogles lost his primary in Tennessee.
He was Trump indoors second Trump and Doris Kind to
lose in two weeks. Andy a lot of problems. One first,
he read they redisted his district to make to get
another Republican seat, and when they did that, he was
campaigning half the time in a district that he never represented,
(41:33):
and he lost most of those areas pretty badly. Secondly,
the Clean Energy Institution a lobbyist. They spent two million
against him. They want Republicans who are for some type
of grain energy, climate change things, maybe some kind of
tax credit that Peter that Andy wasn't for. So yes,
California Democrats absolutely impacted that election big time. And the
(41:56):
secretary former secretary of agriculture. I think it was the
guy who won. He was much more moderate. And also
Andy allegedly was not a great campaigner, didn't really work
hard for it, not a fantastic fundraiser, and probably thought
he had it in the bag, so he didn't work
super hard. And he also managed to piss off every
(42:19):
person under the sun. Tennessee is a very Republican state,
but that is they are Tennessee nice. They are not.
I was born, you know, I lived in Tennessee, right afar,
I was born. I lived in Memphis, and I have
a lot of friends and relatives and not so much fellows,
but a lot of friends in Tennessee. They are nice people.
(42:40):
They don't do fire and brinsome, and they don't like
it very well, and they don't like it very much.
And Andy Agiles being sillacious for clicks online is nothing
for you. And Andy wanted to be famous on Twitter,
and in the end I'm glad he did because I
guess so he got what he wanted, but he really
knew to be more there for voters and not just
(43:03):
you know, a hot head on Twitter. That's all all right, guys.
Thank you for listening this episode. If you like this podcast,
please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
wherever you get your podcast, and I will see you
guys on Friday. Also like and subscribe on YouTube. Talk
to you later.
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Urdusky. Thank
you guys for being here. We have a special episode
today because I have an extra long ask me anything segment.
I want to answer your questions. I realized I was
looking at the inbox, like, Wow, I'm getting up there
and you need to start answering. Somebody's asked me anythings.
I'm sure a lot of you were very patiently waiting.
I do have a few breaking news items that I
think are critical, and no one's addressing them. I think
(00:24):
on the right in a very thorough way. So the
Iran war is making obviously a lot of news for
very obvious reasons. But it seems like it seems like
while the President is looking for an exit ramp. That's
according to both sources that I know in near the
White House and publications. A source close to mine told
(00:46):
me that President Trump made it known from the get
go he had a hard line. He was never going
to support a ground invasion of Iran. He always had
that off the table. I know Trump likes to say
there's nothing off the table. Everything is on the table.
That was a really bad Trump impersonation. I wasn't even trying,
but he always says nothing is off the table. But
that is Trump's negotiating tactic because he feels like he
(01:09):
says something's off the table. He's negotiating from a place
of weakness. But in his head and in inner circles,
there are certain things that are very clearly off the table.
But so ground troops, a ground invasion of Iran was
off the table. According to Semaphore or the website Semaphore,
which is a decent news website, Trump is looking for
an off ramp without letting Iran win and realizing he
(01:33):
is realizing unconditional surrender is not going to happen. Like
it's just we cannot bomb our way to an unconditional surrender.
And there's no Kurdish invasion, there's no there's no ground
invasion that I think Prime Minister Nettnia who was selling
could happen or would happen. And the interesting thing to me,
(01:54):
I was thinking about this the other day. You know
that guy who's the Prince of Iran, the Prince of Iran,
Reza Palvi I think his last name is. He has
done a ton of media about Iran and about that
he's the prince, and you know, we don't have a
prince in this country. I don't have a king of
this country, so or shaw in their case. So it's
a very it's not a relationship. I very easily understand. However,
(02:18):
if you are the prince and you feel like you
have a rightful God given you know, God give you,
It gave you the right to become sovereign over these
people and reign over these people, and you have this
compact with your with your subjects, why doesn't this prince
(02:38):
just go to some of the multiple private army companies
and rent an army, like, offer them money off of
Iran's oil commitments for the future airdrop an army into
Tehran and take it over, and you know, just take
over the country. He would have full US support probably
and Israel support, and they would probably give him the
(03:00):
air coverage he would need. None of these people have
any bravery, is my point? Like this, this is so
so many people are like I I'm not just him,
but other people in other areas of life, like I
have the rightful thing to do this or I'm supposed
to be this, and they're just ballless, they don't do anything.
I mean, he actually could probably seize his country if
he risked his life. But if you really believe you
(03:21):
are the rightful heir, you risk your life for that stuff,
and you believe that you know that a higher being
is on your side. Anyway, Trump understands that without a
ground invasion by some other force, not America's, an overthrow
of the reigning government is not logical. Iran set on
a list of demands to reopen the straft for moves
(03:42):
they are absolutely unacceptable to the United States's standpoint. They
demand a withdrawal of the US naval blockade, they pay
Iranian damages for the war, They unfreeze Iranian assets, they
lift sanctions on Tehran and permally end the conflict against
Iran and regional allies. It's like never gonna happen. But
Trump at this point has two very big data points
(04:04):
that is whispering and circulating inside the Oval Office and
the White House that I think he's thinking about it.
And it's not inflation and it's not internal polls. Those though,
are very important, but it's a more strategic issue. The
first is our strategic petroleum reserves fell for the first
time since nineteen eighty three, before I was even born.
(04:27):
Under three hundred million barrels. This is after Trump released
one hundred and seventy two million bowels back in March
to relieve oil high oil prices. Another six point one
million of that one to seventy two was released over
the week, so we have under three hundred million barrels now.
The Energy Department says that all we only need seventy
(04:49):
million barrels to operate safely, but that is a big drop.
Back in two thousand and nine, there was over seven
hundred and twenty seven million barrels in the spr in
the strategic petroleum. That's a sixty percent drop since two
thousand and nine in the last sixteen seventeen years. That's
not great. Now, it's not a red alarm sign like,
(05:09):
oh my gosh, we need to panic because the oil
petroleum reserves are so low, but they're not headed in
the correct direction. And if the off ram doesn't happen,
do we eventually fall under two hundred million? Like how
long does that three hundred million exist to relieve the stress?
Since oil prices are high and he gave up a
third of what was already there back in March, does
(05:31):
he give up another third? Because we're still over seventy million.
It's a big concern. There was also another report over
the week that is another big warning sign for the
president as far as how long this war can go.
News story broke over the week from CBS News that
the US global stockpile of long range precision missiles has
(05:52):
depleted because of the war. They were they were stare
desperate right now to try to build them as fast
as possible. These are very technologically savvy and advanced missiles.
They can't just be built, you know, in twenty four hours.
The presidents deny these claims. He says that they have
plenty and he's going to go after the two whistle
blowers who leaked the story. But I kind of do
(06:14):
believe the story is there because there's another organization called
the Center for Strategic International Studies, which is one of
the premier military nonprofits in the world. They said that
the US missile stockpile, though it remains classified, is estimated
to have between seven hundred and fifty nine and eight
hundred and twenty seven Patriot missiles left. That is a
(06:36):
third of the two thousand, three hundred and thirty that
existed before the conflict in ern It's estimated that the
US has now used up to sixty percent of high
terminal altitude area defense missiles, which are deployed to intercept strikes.
That's not great that we only have forty percent left,
and it's not just this war, but we were already
(06:57):
using and giving away a significant amount of those missiles
to Ukraine during their war with Russia. So we've been
giving them away and then using them. According to a
report by the Center for Strategic International States, we've also
severely severely depleted the number of Tomahawk missiles and it
won't be ready like the number we need, which is
over three thousand, won't be ready until twenty thirty one.
(07:21):
Now we are developing new missiles. Time magazine report that
we're in talks with private companies for five new kinds
of missiles, but it takes twelve to eighteen months to
test those missiles, and the war is costing US nine
hundred million dollars a day. Think about that. Conservatives need
to have an honest conversation. We are understand that the
(07:43):
deficit and the debt is ballooning nine hundred million dollars
a day. A depleted strategic petroleum reserve depleted arsenal. These
are not great things. Away from just the need York
reaction of polls and politics from election cycle to election cycle,
(08:04):
this is long term ramifications. What happens in the midst
of all of this. If China decides they need to
seize Tewan, Taiwan, are we even still able to defend it.
I know we have a large navy that could be there.
I know our naval games have said that we would
win that Nava battle. It would cost us a lot,
(08:24):
it would cost us a ton of stuff. But if
we're already depleting all of our reserves, how much more
can we afford to deplete before that becomes a serious
threat that we can't defend Taiwan? Because if China were
to take Taiwan, they sees all the important ship production
for the world, and it's basically game set match, like
(08:46):
they have the complete upper hand on technological advancements. They
could completely strain us from all technological innovation. I mean,
it would be chaos, true and outer chaos, and it
would take as a years, any years and years to
get to where we're supposed to be after that. I
mean it's a big it's a big gamble, and we've
(09:08):
seen in the past and history countries that have over
committed their defenses, over committed their offenses, it hasn't worked
for them. So I think that that all looms in
the background as to why some type of negotiation anything
to get the shrift form moves open and to stop
the bombing campaign so we give rebuild our arsenal and
(09:30):
rebuild our petroleum reserves is absolutely the most important right now.
That's I mean, because it all comes down to the
fact that we could not do something that was important
for our sake, really important, like protect Taiwan. Okay, Next
up a very long asked Me Anything. Stay tuned now
it's time for the ask Me Anything segment. If you
(09:50):
want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment,
emailing Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan at
numbers Plural Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. First question comes from Jose.
Jose said, I love during Evan Barker. As someone who
doesn't know the ins and outs of campaigns, I find
it fascinating when level listen to a two hour podcast.
I love Evan Barker. We've texted since then. She's told
me a lot of democratic consultants have been reaching out
(10:12):
to her about her book and stuff. I want to
have her on to talk about those those kinds of
conversations with Democratic consultants right now. It's really funny. The
one thing about Evan is really funny. Evan will apologize.
I asked Evan if she ever met Francesca Hang, the
crazy lady from Wisconsin, and she goes, no, But I
trained her fundraisers like I trained them to do with
(10:33):
their job and then show it back dot do dot,
I'm sorry, and like you don't have to keep apologizing,
like this is very strange, Like you don't have to
do that all right anyway. Next, the other question was,
here's my question. Churning Point in USA has presented the
quote unquote red wall strategy. Essentially, they believe that they
can put resources in Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire and
make it nearly impossible for Democrats to compete in those states,
similar to blue walls for Republicans. They cite voter registration
(10:56):
trends and recent election victories or losses by a lot
less doing a quick quick chat GPT search, it seems
like they've compared it to a decade ago, Republicans have
gained a lot or have even surpassed Democrats and voter
registration in these states. They've also started to win e
winning either statewide by bigger margins such as anti big
in the recent Arizona governor's primary, or losing less and competing.
(11:19):
I believe Nevada, a Republican, lost the Senate seat in
twenty twenty four by a small margin. What are your
thoughts on the red wall strategy? Are their trends still
in Republican favor or more resources needed in those states? Finally,
how long will it take to firmly entrench yourself in
a state to affect elections? That is a great, really
detail a question. Okay, let's go state by state, so
(11:42):
we'll start with Nevada. Nevada, back in twenty sixteen, Democrats
had a voter registration advantage of eighty eighty eight hundred
and eighteen. Back in twenty sixteen. Today that means that
Bye Bay, That means there's eighty eighty eight hundred and
eighteen more Democrats than Republicans. That doesn't include independence. As
of today, Democrats have a voter role advantage of one thousand,
(12:06):
eight hundred and thirty seven. So Republicans over the last
decade have registered ninety two thousand new voters and Democrats
have only rested five thousand. They've only netted five thousand
new ones. But here's the thing about Nevada. There are
nearly as many independents as Democrats and Republicans combined. There's
(12:27):
one point one six million Democrats and Republicans and nine
hundred and thirty thousand independents. So it's great that Republicans
have chipped away a Democrat voter advantage. As if the
Democrat if the independent number is that large, it doesn't
really matter because you need them to win the independent
vote because it's so overwhelmingly high. The Republicans have a governor.
(12:53):
I believe they have a few statewide office holders in Nevada.
This is an important election where they need to win more.
They need to be able to have enough a statewide
elected officials to basically have people run in twenty thirty
to replace the governor, especially for redistricting. It's very important,
but also to build a farm team and do stuff.
(13:15):
It's not that they just have to win the offices.
They have to have office holders who care about electing
Republicans down ballid. Larry Hogan cared about doing that. He
was one of the Republicans who actually worked hard for
Republicans down ballad versus like Chris Christy who never cared
how Republicans down ballid did. Another one the governor of
(13:39):
Vermont whose name just on my mind, Phil Scott. Phil
Scott works really hard for Republicans to get elected in Vermont.
Believe it or not, des by being so liberal, He's
actually fighting for Republicans down ballid versus like there have
been many. I don't know. I don't think that Paul
Lapag did a very big effort to get Republicans elect
(13:59):
down ballot. Maybe he did, I don't know. Charlie Baker
perfect example. Charlie Baker over in Massachusetts, never worked for Republicans.
He didn't care what happened in the Republican party as
long as he was popular. Great examples where you not
only need the state wide elected, but you needed to
work hard on behalf of the party. Next day was Arizona.
You mentioned Republicans have three hundred and thirteen thousand more
(14:20):
voters than Democrats, do you, but independents are nearly tie
with Republicans. So there are thirty thousand more Republicans and independence.
But what that says is yes, if a DSA style
cant ran in Arizona, they would probably lose, so long
as they weren't running against like a carry Lake who
(14:40):
turns up independence by thirty something points. You can win
Arizona without winning independence, but you can't lose them by
more than like five or six points. And the biggest
irony thinking about Arizona, the biggest irony was if we
could go back in time and change a few things
which I know we can't put let's play. Let's play
(15:01):
a game and say we can. If we went back
to twenty twenty two and Trump did not make that
election about that, the twenty twenty election was stolen and
did not and Roe v. Wade had not been overturned,
Republicans probably would have netted three US Senate seats nationwide,
maybe four, And in twenty twenty four, had Joe Biden
not dropped out, Republicans would have also netted another four
(15:25):
Senate seats. We would have sixty Senate seats right now,
so we would be able to pass the Save America Act.
Had those two or three three things not happened. Had
Trump not made the twenty twenty two election, about twenty
twenty and abortion not been overturned, and had Biden stated
in the race of twenty twenty four, Republicans would have
sixty season the Senate right now, it is very very
strange how a few things can change a big, big,
(15:47):
you know election. So anyway, yeah, you could win Arizona,
but not win them about losing independence by too much.
And lastly, in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is very unique.
New Hampshire is this that is the most Republican state
on the local level, governor, state legislature, all the rest
of it, with no Republicans elected to the federal government.
(16:10):
So Republicans complete control of the state government and no
control in the federal government is very very unusual. We'll
see if Johnson UNU can pull out a miracle against
Chris poppas for the US in New Hampshire, but it's
a very unusual thing where the party is extremely popular
locally and not popular at all federally that state. Though
(16:33):
New Hampshire Republicans have a forty eight thousand almost forty
nine thousand voter advantage over Democrats, much higher than what
they had in twenty sixteen or the only twenty thousand,
but they lost both years. Why sixty three thousand more
Independents than Republicans. So it's a state where once again
you cannot win without the independent vote. It's like Nevada,
(16:56):
and it's it just is And I think why Nevada
went in Republican twenty twenty four and New Hampshire didn't,
although New Hampshire came very close. Their Independence are a
lot of college educated whites. Nevada Republican Nevada Independence are
a lot of non college educated Hispanics. That makes a
huge difference. Okay, next question is, are Shannon are Shana
(17:18):
writs Ken James tall Rico really pulled this off. If so,
do you think the Gopeople finally understand they have a
ground game and not just hope for the best and
play on the pass. That's a great way of putting it.
Can he win? Yes, he can, James Hilaric, We can win.
Republicans in Texas need to work and Ken Paxton needs
to work. And when he was on this podcast, I
(17:38):
was really like I was telling him over again, how
can you show Republicans you're gonna work. Jesse Waters on
Fox News saying, you know where is Ken Paxton. You
need to work. We can't win this election for you.
And he needs to pull out the big guns. And
he needs every person who doesn't like socialism possible, every moderate,
every independent who's a moderate, someone who's a light Democrat,
(18:02):
Like you can't turn away any voter at all under
any circumstances. Do not only play to the bass. It's
not enough people. People forget back. In twenty eighteen, Beto o'
rourke when he was running his head cruise and came
very close to beating him, he only won by two points.
There were only two poles showing that Beta was leading.
Right now, almost every pole shows Paston's losing. In twenty eighteen,
(18:27):
Paxston barely won. He won by three and a half
points statewide against a nobody with no money. He lost
in that election three congressional Republican districts and almost lost
four more. So, yeah, he's got to work. I mean,
there's nothing to it, like, there's no there's He's not
gonna win it by just being Trump endorsed. And I
(18:49):
know he's getting more message out there about the economy
and stuff like that. But he's got to really be
selling this and selling this hard. Okay, next question goes
from Brock brox is, I'm on a walk listening to
your Friday. So about those abysmal approval Trump numbers. What
keeps coming to me is that as God warned us
or the Old Testament, we will we will forget. I
still think he needs to be an ad blast vert
(19:11):
visually showing all the reasons we voted for DJG last time,
crazy ass cultural changes leftist made on how Trump was
attempted to legislate them out of existence, closing the border,
and how we help reduce crime and overcrowding in the
housing market, FETNOL reduction across the border, stronger police sing
for everyone. Yes, the problem is people's memories are short.
I look on those images of Okay, yeah, that is
(19:36):
one hundred percent true, and people do have a short
term memory. I mean I do too. There are things
I forget I memory hole from COVID, from Biden getting elected,
from Obama, which was like a million years ago. And
he needs less about the past, although that's important. Really
(19:58):
about what he can do in the future, and what's
the message in the future is having this big convention
in Dallas. What can you do to sell thembout the future?
And a big part of this election will come down
to two things. One the economy and two what do
people care more about? Do they fear Dsay taking over
the country or hate Trump. That's a it's a big
it's a big debate over fear versus hate. Last question
(20:20):
before the break. Okay, this comes from Trevor. Trevor says,
since you are a Catholic, I wanted to get your
thoughts on a couple of things. Oh boy, religion, here
we go. Uh. First, with the Democratic Party increasing in
becoming a party of Seculary, socialist and Islamo kamis, should
the GOP do more to outreach and speak directly to
Catholic voters. Catholics have been drinking towards the GP for
(20:41):
a while, but are not overwhelmingly like they are with Evangelicals.
That is true, Catholic white Catholics are very Republican, but
you have to remember Catholics are a lot more diverse
than Evangelicals. There's Latino Catholics. There are a lot of
Asian Catholics like Filipinos. There are a ton of African
Catholics who are moving here Haitians are Catholic. Like that
(21:04):
is a much more diverse coalition Racially, A lot of
Catholics also still belong to unions, and Catholics tend to
also be less orthodox. There's been a lot of studies
about what you know, Catholics, what parts of the faith
the Catholic Church agrees with disagrees with, And a lot
of it is like very essential parts that a huge
(21:25):
chunk of the Catholic Church, not the church, but like
the congregates do disagree with, like is the Eucharist the
Body of Christ? Like they I think it's like a
twenty five percent disagree with that. So that's that's pretty bad.
Like that's pretty They have a lot to go work
with to bring their flock in line with their teach
essential parts they're teaching, not even like culture war or
(21:46):
political parts they're teaching. What they should do is emphasize
Catholic education. Catholics love our schools. Do Catholic schools overperform
public schools? And I think basically every kind of school
Catholic schools. I think right after COVID they said if
Catholic schools were their own state. They would be the
(22:06):
number one state in the country by like light years
ahead of everybody else. So I think emphasizing the need
to protect Catholic education would be a good way to
reach Catholics. You also say, is there more to be gained?
My second question is there are a handful of very
recent converse Catholicism that used their new found Catholic faith
(22:26):
as a vehicle to push an anti Israel agenda. They
act as though they speak for all Catholics and have
the audacity to question the faith of other Christians, mostly
Protestants that disagree with them. That is rich coming from
these people who all have skeletons in their closet of
their own and aren't acting very christ Like in how
they conduct themselves. I am a lifelong Protestants, so I
don't have a deep understanding the Catholic theology. But I
(22:48):
want to ask, do these people speak for you and
for other Catholics? You know, is anti Zionism and anti
Semitism a widespread sentiment in the Catholic community. Thank you
for your response. Oh boys, s Trevor, you are You're like,
let's open up a can of worms. So this is
a very complicated question because remember, the Catholic Church is
(23:08):
a unified entity. It is not like the Protestants that
have a million different, you know, segments, and we are
a global church, so speaking for us as a global
thing is very difficult. I'm going to speak as a
what the Church doctrine is and then what American Catholics do.
So the Church doctrine says that they do not recognize
(23:31):
the modern state of Israel as being the same as
the historic Kingdom of Israel where Christ lived or where
King David was. The King of Christ didn't live in
the Kingdom of Israel. He lived in a Roman state.
But whatever that, the ancient state of Israel is not
the modern state. The Catholic Church does not believe that.
At the same time, the Catholic Church teaches that God's
(23:53):
compact with the Jewish people can never be broken, so
they are still God's chosen people. And even though Christ
came to the earth and die for our sins, and
you know, no one goes to heaven without Jesus and
all the rest of it. So that is a very
Catholic for dummies answer, but that is the very basics
of it. There are a lot of Catholics globally who
(24:16):
do not like the Israel, the state of Israel, and
the government of Israel. And that is true in Europe
and Africa and Latin America and basically everywhere in the
world doesn't like Israel, aside from America. But no one
likes them as much as Evangelicals in America. The difference
is I don't think Catholics are engaged period. Israel is
(24:42):
not a giant issue for us. It's just not like
it's great to go there. It's great to visit, it's
great to see historical sites. The Israeli government preserving those
sites is great, better than a Muslims Muslim leader who
would destroy them. But yet sta it is not like
the Israel. The feelings towards Israel among Catholics is not
(25:05):
as intense as they are among em the joke. It
does not mean that they hate them, They just don't
have any strong commitments or feelings to them. I think, though,
there is a very large difference between criticizing the government
of Israel and what some people are doing these newly
converted Catholics, where they are using purposeful language to dehumanize
(25:28):
Jews and going to wild conspiracy theories that are both
insane and disgusting. And I think that that's really the
dividing line you as a conscious American, if you read
things to be tried on them, you should be able
to criticize the government of Israel or what or American
(25:49):
Israeli relations. You should be allowed to have those kinds
of conversations. You should not use dehumanizing language about Jews
to do it, like one should not just by the other.
It's like the Christ is King thing. Yes, you can
believe it, and you can espouse it as a Catholic
or as a Christian or whatever. You should not use
(26:10):
it and then use it as an attack line for Jews.
There is no difference between doing that and using God's
name in vain. Like there's no different because you're not
actually using it. And like the term crisis king is
a little unusual in the Catholic doctrine because the term
is usually Christ the King. That goes back a thousand
plus years. In Catholic liturgy, they use Christ the King,
(26:34):
not Christ is King. So it's a very small change,
but it's a very interesting one that those people use. Anyway,
I don't talk about Israel at all those people don't
speak for me. I don't know many Catholics they speak for.
I would say this faith is a journey, it's not
a guilt trip. I don't know if they're authentic in
(26:54):
their conversion or if they're using it as a mantle
to do things. I don't know why you would be
Catholic to do that, but you know it would be
much more interesting. I guess if you were a Jewish
convert about Jews like I don't know, it doesn't I
don't know why they're using the faith to do that.
I hope that they get to a better place. I
don't talk about Israel a lot on this podcast because personally,
(27:15):
I have a lot of Jewish friends, and I know
how sensitive they are right now. I know how on
edge they are right now. And even though I have
criticism about bb net, Yahoo's leadership and something's Israel's done,
I'm not piling on in this moment like they have
enough people with daggers out against them where they feel
like they're being attacked by anybody. I love my Jewish friends.
(27:36):
I don't need them. I don't need to be another
voice to make them feel like this I talk about
with polling. But besides that, I'm not going to jump
in and add to the dogpile. It's just not appropriate
at this time. And a lot of those people are
really gross. It is really gross whenever you weaponize your
religion to harm others, it's not the point of a religion.
(27:59):
And it happens among all religions, different faiths, different creeds,
different you know, people with no religion. They do like
to demonize and weaponize to attack others, and that in
self is not very Christ's life. Like, Okay, more asked
Me Anything coming up next? Now it's time for more
Asked Me Anything? Next question comes from Christopher christmas Is.
I really liked your podcast about the veck. I especially
(28:19):
hate when people on our side of the right claim
that America is just an idea and we should let
everyone in. I also can't stand the Republican politicians pushing
from mass amnesty, like Maria Elvi or Salazar. Yes, don't
these dumb Republicans realize it would be the end of
the Republican Party. No, they do not. That is a
great part of the problem, Christopher. They do not. My
Congressman Lloyd Smucker supports mass amnesty too. I'm going to vote,
(28:42):
but what should I do? Lloyd Smucker, for those who
don't know, represents Lancaster, Pennsylvania. This is not a state,
part of the country with a huge illegal alien population.
They have more homish than they do illegals. Lloyd is
the worst. I mean, he's awful. I mean there's no
notice say he is awful, and he somebody that might
pack Homeland pack would love to find a credible challenger
(29:04):
to spend money against him in twenty twenty eight. He's
a terrible fundraiser. He can't raise a lot of money,
and the district is changing very quickly as a lot
of people from like the Maryland area are moving to
south southeast Pennsylvania. In Philadelphia, people moving southast Pennsylvania. I
would and I love Lancaster. I've actually, you know, owned
(29:25):
property there. I love Lancaster. It's a great area. I
would say you should do this. He is overwhelmingly favored
to win, so like, vote for him, don't vote for him.
It's not going to change the election. He's going to
win reelection. What I would do, though, is I would
either become a Republican committeeman and push a vote as
(29:45):
a committeeman to censor him and to condemn him in
the Republican Party for his support from mass Amnestein, to
at least get the message out to people that he
does support mass Amnestein. Or I would volunteer for a
challenge you're in the next primary because that seat is
a pretty safe Republican seat and it could absolutely flip.
As of right now, it's still a safe Republican seat,
(30:07):
So I would one hundred percent do that. He's awful,
You're right. Next question comes from Elizabeth Elizaba's is Ryan.
I love your podcast. I love you, Elizabeth. I never
miss it and listen to every episode more than once. Elizabeth,
you are getting a gold star today. I have recommended
to so many people and they love it to you.
Keep with the good work. My question is about the
division and the Democratic Party with the DSA poaching so
many long standing Democrats. Could I think you mean not poaching,
(30:31):
because that means they're not taking them. I think you
mean poaching their seats. I think that's what you're saying.
They're not converting to DSA all the ones. I think
you're saying take their seats. Could this not be very
good for the Republican Party. If the mainstream Dems get
disgusted with the far left DSA contingent and the far
left group will not support anyone near the center or
anyone with a good word to say about Israel or
the Jews. Might there is a lot of Jew conversation
(30:52):
not being in this episode. Might not this divide help
the Republican voting numbers? A three party system seems to
me that it would benefit the right. What do you
think you mean if there was a traditional Democratic party,
traditional Republican and traditional do you say, I don't know.
I don't Yes, if there was two liberal parties and
(31:13):
one center right party, yes, that would help the Republican Party.
That's not going to happen. I don't think so. Like
take the recent vote to defund military equipment from Israel.
It got a lot of Democratic votes one hundred and
three and two years ago got thirty seven. That's a
big increase. However, a majority of Demos in the House
(31:36):
still voted to fund Israel. So they're not at the
place yet where they've taken over taken over, and I
would emphasize that we will late after November. I don't
think it's going to happen. Let's see if any of
those Democrats who were like I'm a centrist, Let's see
if they leave the Democratic Party. I don't think they do.
I think they're all show and no go. I don't
(31:58):
think they're actually going to leave when push comes to stuff.
Maybe Federerman would, Maybe Federman would become an independent because
he can't win as a Democrat anymore. Aside from him,
I don't see any of them leaving. They're all going
to take marching orders. They're all lemmings. Look at what
happened over in Michigan. Haley Stevens, probably the most vocal
support of Israel in the entire state of Michigan. On
(32:23):
the Democratic Party endorsed abdul l said the next day
after she lost her primary by one point. So did
malloym mcmarrowe. They endorsed him the next day. These people
have no fundamental beliefs at all. What's going to hurt
these DSA candidates is not just their hatred of Israel.
(32:44):
That might bring a lot of Jews over, and Jews
are coming at the Republican Party. That's why it would
be really good thing not to turn them away by
being anti semitic to anyone who's a podcast hosts who
is just raging about the Jews left and right. But
the one thing that is the one thing that will
turn them off is that to be a member of
the DSA, you have to have a level of brokenness
(33:07):
in your brain in the sense that you believe the
assault of whiteness is so great and so stifling that
even though you live in a capitalist, white majority country
that has made you a millionaire. In the case of
abdulah said, he's a very very wealthy man. He owns
multiple rental property. I think his rental property income is
(33:27):
north of three hundred thousand dollars a year. That's just
rental property income. He's fabulously wealthy, very successful. But because
he's fundamentally broken, and he has third world romanticism in
the sense that he sees third world people pre Western
colonialism as being the ideal, even though that they didn't
have the wheel in most places and didn't have you know,
(33:50):
I don't know, toiletry or like a plumbing or any
anything that makes the civilization civilized. They had none close
to none of it. He anticizes them. So Al Dulasaid's
problem with voters is not going to be that. He
just you know, praised the dictator of Iran after he
got murdered. No, his problem is he wanted to ban
(34:12):
fireworks on fourth of July. Why because he hates Westernism,
So anything that celebrates the greatness of white Protestant settlers
in America can't celebrate that anymore. He also claim that
football was linked to white supremacy in one of his
old videos. You have to be broken to even spend
(34:34):
your time thinking about that, Like your brain has to
have such a level of rot that you see people
throwing around a football and be like, how do I
relate this to white supremacy. There's no functioning way a
normal person's brain takes something like that and connects it.
You could say, I wonder how these you know, these
great athletes brains working to get hit in the head
(34:55):
a million times. You could could make a million different
critical ideas about football. You can't sit there and say, oh,
this is really like white supremacy, and you know, we
should really we should take down this symbol of white supremacy.
Get out of here. There's a reason he is campaigning
with Hassan Piker. It's not just because Hassan Piker is like,
you know, hates America as well, even though he's a
(35:17):
fabulously wealthy, closeted individual, you know, living in a gated community.
He is fabulously wealthy because he says things like America
deserves nine to eleven. And you know, no one is
as wealthy in this country as someone selling socialis into
the masses. Nobody. It is very, very ironic. Okay, next question,
(35:39):
I'm sorry I was on that tirade, but I just
I couldn't. Next question comes from will Hey, Ryan, love
your show and super glad it's growing alongside your newsletter.
I was catching up on the summer episodes and caught
one late July about Mark where we were not seeking
any nomination in twenty twenty eight. In that insight, you
mentioned Ted Cruz and Ram Paul as people who are
building a twenty twenty eight apparatus. Finally, you mentioned Rhonda
Santas is kind of those things. He's like, I think
(36:01):
the Santas is looking for how he stays involved in
the conversation. Remember, it's very difficult. The window to run
for president is very narrow, and once it closes, oftentimes
unless your name is Richard Nixon. It closes for good.
So to be the former governor of a state and
being a fabulous governor to Santa, this is a great governor.
I'm not I'm not. I'm not trashing to say this.
(36:23):
His ability to be a governor at all. He probably
a great president, nothing bad to say to him, but
to be a governor from twenty twenty, from twenty eighteen
to twenty twenty six, in twenty twenty eight, in twenty
thirty two, how are you relevant? There's always a shinier
penny up the block in life, but in politics is
(36:44):
one hundred percent true. There's always a shinier penny. You
are the biggest name and then you are forgotten in
the blink of an eye. So if you do not
run when the when, when it's scolding hot, it's it's over.
My question is about a path forward for dis Sanda
is in a party that will almost certainly have an
identity crisis post Trump. To me, a lot depends on
(37:06):
the upcoming midterms. We saw Dissanta's as the strongest national
position post twenty twenty two. Obviously, he's been a roller
coaster for the GUP ever since. So with that Rubio,
what's the path for run as a potential primary with Vance,
Cruz and others or in general. His Florida record is great,
but I think it will only lose whatever influence it
has as we are further away from woke covid era.
Is he better sitting down twenty twenty in the event
(37:27):
of a GOP loss coming back in twenty thirty two.
I can't think of that instance when somebody lost two
primaries and then became president for a third run great observation.
What I would do is if I was advising dis Santas,
which I'm not, I would say, look, the President's not
going to endorse you for president. His endorsement's going to
mean a lot. JD. If he runs is going to
(37:50):
have the Trump apparatus, which is a billion dollar apparatus.
And I don't know anyone who is going to give
another one hundred million dollars to Desantas after he did
not win Iowa last time. What I would do is
I would say this, go to Vance if that's your
chosen candidate, or go to Cruise if that's your chosen
(38:12):
Canada or whomever. Bet On the winning horse is very important,
though so probably advance and say I would like to
campaign for you. I would like to be on your team.
I will like to do everything. I'll fundraise for you
everything that I can do. I will move to Georgia.
I will live in Georgia and get South Georgia to
show up at seventy percent all the people who live
(38:35):
between Georgia and Florida. Get them to vote in huge
numbers for you, to make sure Georgia stays red. But
I want to be Secretary of Defense. I want to
be Secretary of State. I want to be something, some
high profile job. A problem for Desanta's is Floridians have
(38:57):
this opinion that everyone wants to live in Florida and
it's great. I'm here on vacation right now. I'm in Pensacola.
It's a lovely place. That's not true. Not everyone wants
to live in Florida. And his message was to Florida Centric,
build a brand that is national, that is part of
the team. You weren't rebellions Trump and in that time
(39:19):
that there may be a Republican president or not so,
or you're just viewed as a member of the party,
a part of the team, someone working for the brand
like Nixon did for Barry Goldwar in sixty four. No
one worked harder for Gold War in sixty four than Nixon,
which won Nixon a lot of credibility. Among the basins
(39:40):
for sixty eight win the credibility of the base back
campaigned harder for the Republican than any person alive. And
once that happens, Once you do that, then think about
running build that brand a over. You essentially have to
start not from zero, but start all over again. I
think that's how you you do it. He's a young man,
(40:01):
he has time. He can still do this and still
keep his name in the show. Okay, last question, second
to last question comes from JD. He says, a great podcast.
I've listened to your episode since you launched. Thank you, JD.
I have a question about future polling. As landline telephones
become less commonplace and fewer people answer cell phone calls
from unknown numbers, how do polsters adapt? Okay, great question.
(40:23):
So a lot of posters have done text messages. Now
they'll text you if you're interested in polling, which reduces
the amount of time and they and they'll match your
phone number to your voter ID form. That's a big way.
A lot of them do through the internet. A lot
of posters have also be got to pay people to
answer their polling to find there the people who are
(40:49):
less likely to answer to get them on the phone.
You know, people got a college degree, people who are
not super engaged. So all those things are how they've
already kind of closed it. Very few even you use
landlines mostly anymore at all. It's very rare that they
even use. If they do use landlines, it's for you know,
a small, small percentage of numbers at this point. Okay,
(41:11):
last question is my buddy Peter Foma, Peter fumber Goes.
What happened Annie Ogles? Any Ogles lost his primary in Tennessee.
He was Trump indoors second Trump and Doris Kind to
lose in two weeks. Andy a lot of problems. One first,
he read they redisted his district to make to get
another Republican seat, and when they did that, he was
campaigning half the time in a district that he never represented,
(41:33):
and he lost most of those areas pretty badly. Secondly,
the Clean Energy Institution a lobbyist. They spent two million
against him. They want Republicans who are for some type
of grain energy, climate change things, maybe some kind of
tax credit that Peter that Andy wasn't for. So yes,
California Democrats absolutely impacted that election big time. And the
(41:56):
secretary former secretary of agriculture. I think it was the
guy who won. He was much more moderate. And also
Andy allegedly was not a great campaigner, didn't really work
hard for it, not a fantastic fundraiser, and probably thought
he had it in the bag, so he didn't work
super hard. And he also managed to piss off every
(42:19):
person under the sun. Tennessee is a very Republican state,
but that is they are Tennessee nice. They are not.
I was born, you know, I lived in Tennessee, right afar,
I was born. I lived in Memphis, and I have
a lot of friends and relatives and not so much fellows,
but a lot of friends in Tennessee. They are nice people.
(42:40):
They don't do fire and brinsome, and they don't like
it very well, and they don't like it very much.
And Andy Agiles being sillacious for clicks online is nothing
for you. And Andy wanted to be famous on Twitter,
and in the end I'm glad he did because I
guess so he got what he wanted, but he really
knew to be more there for voters and not just
(43:03):
you know, a hot head on Twitter. That's all all right, guys.
Thank you for listening this episode. If you like this podcast,
please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
wherever you get your podcast, and I will see you
guys on Friday. Also like and subscribe on YouTube. Talk
to you later.
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