On this episode of A Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky breaks down the latest 2026 election trends, including a major Republican flip in Prince William County, Democratic overperformance in special elections, and the high-stakes fight over Virginia redistricting. He also dives into what early voting numbers could signal for Republicans, why candidate social media history is becoming a bigger campaign issue, and answers listener questions on Dan Crenshaw, DHS leadership, voter ID, phone banking, Illinois politics, and the future of pro-life conservatism.
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast with Ryan Gurduski.
Thank you guys for being here again. A happy Friday.
We've made it through another week and we have a
lot to catch up on. There's a lot of things
going on in the news that just kind of come
at you so quickly that you really don't not being
not a daily show, so I don't have every day
to talk about, but these are the things I think
are worth picking up on, especially when it comes to
(00:23):
what's going on with elections and a lot of the
earlier numbers coming out of Virginia for their redistricting effort.
So let's get into it first. Some good news for
Republicans GOP Jean Lacroix flipped a Democrat seat in Prince
William County Board of a Supervisor. So this is local,
This is like county legislative type thing, but it's important
(00:45):
because Prince William County is the second most populated county
in the state of Virginia. Democrats now have a five
to three majority. They're one seat away from tying it
up and two seats away from flipping the majority. Be
a big deal. So the first time in thirty eight
years that this seat has flipped from Democrat to Republican.
So what happened? Democrats nominated guy named Mohammed Surf Cassin
(01:09):
and he won his primary by a mere thirty three votes,
running to the far left of the Democratic Party. Well,
it turns out mister Cassim was a big fan of
writing things on social media. He is good. This is
the story that is going to come out more and
more and more as more millennials are running for office
and we're the generation that were like the more or
(01:30):
less the guinea pigs of social media, really likened to
put whatever they wanted to out there. Well, from twenty
twelve to twenty fifteen, mister Cassin, who is Muslim, liked
to put the N word on social media a lot,
like a lot, a lot, big fan of the Edward
with the soft A not the hard R. Not that
(01:50):
that makes a difference, but nonetheless he would joke about
things like this is one of the more wholesome jokes
I could tell. He said, you can't call a tigger
or you can't call a tiger a tiga, only they
can call themselves tig up, which is like more harmless,
I guess than I mean the other ones were explicit Edward. Also,
(02:11):
you can imagine a man with a name Mohammed surf
Cassim probably not a big fan of Jews or feminism.
His laundry list of comments even caused Democrats demand that
he stepped down, and when he refused, the candidate decided.
Of the candidate who had lost the primary, decided to
run a write in campaign, believing he could win just
(02:33):
doing a writing campaign and flip the district as a
Democrat but independent Democrat. Well, he was wrong. In the end,
Miss Lacroix, the Republican won by seven points, winning forty
four percent of the vote in a basically three way race.
This is especially important given what I said to you
last episode about main Democrat Graham Platner. Lots of things
(02:54):
he's written on social media, same things with James Tallerrico.
I mentioned that like last week about the Texas guy,
Lots of things on social media, lots of things that
Republicans are not spending a lot of money on, talking
about his social media history. If you're going to run
for office years beforehand, you should probably start scrubbing your
social media it works in your favor. The best case
(03:15):
of this is Congressman Abe Hamaday from Arizona. He's a Republican,
wrote on social media a lot. Loved to call when
he was a younger guy in his early twenties and
his mid twenties, loved to call Republicans racists. Love to
call Republicans who support immigration restrictionist racist, YadA, YadA, YadA, YadA.
And then, for whatever reason, twenty sixteen to twenty eighteen,
(03:40):
his entire social media scrubbed. Can't imagine why. What his
original opinions of Donald Trump were. My guess is it's
not what he says now. Nonetheless, there's no proof because
he deleted. He was smart. He was smart to delete
his social media in those years where he was probably
more than more than the average Republican was hesitant towards
(04:04):
Trump at the time. He was probably calling Trump or
racist every five seconds. We don't know because he with
social media. But nonethless, if you're going to run for
office and you'd like to be spiced on social media
years beforehand, deleted. All okay, Now, they're good news for Democrats.
Democrats overperformed in a number of special elections, especially in
state legislatures. They flipped the seat in New Hampshire State
House or representatives. New Hampshire State House is four hundred seats,
(04:27):
so it wasn't like it's a big seat. It's basically
like a block or two. It's a small, tiny district.
Voters swung seventeen points to the left in this New
Hampshire district in the area of Carol. It was a
district that Trump won by nine points. In George's fourteen
congressional district, a Republican and Democrat are headed to a runoff.
This is the old Marjorie Taylor Green Congressional district. The
(04:50):
Democrats are so far outperforming where they were in twenty
twenty four by seventeen points. It's such a Republican seat
that it doesn't matter like the Republican's going to win,
but they are. Democrats are overperforming again. In the Georgia
State Senate district that Trump from by fifty eight points
that had a special election, Democrats overperformed Kamwa Howards's results
(05:11):
by twelve points. And then in another a special election
in Georgia and the State House, which is a super
democratic area, Democrats still overperformed by eight points. So this
is not great when you look at the total of
the thirty special elections that occurred in twenty twenty six
just this year. So far, in the first three months
of this year, Democrats on average have outperformed where they
(05:33):
were in those districts in twenty twenty four by twelve points,
very similar to the twelve point two points Democrats outperformed
their twenty twenty four numbers in twenty twenty five, and
that year was a landslide victory. November that year was
a shellacking for Republicans. Now, as I said in the past,
Republicans have been doing better in special elections this year
(05:54):
than they were of the year before. That all started
to change at the end of February. At the end
of for whatever reason, Republicans had six or seven special
elections where they were just getting obliterated and their average,
which was getting much better, just fell apart. It just
completely fell apart. I don't understand why the last six
or seven special elections have gone so heavily to Democrats
(06:16):
when the previous special elections just a few weeks before,
we're going more for its Republicans. It could be a
candidate thing, it could just be the new cycle, it
could be the around war. I don't really know, but
that has changed the averages to really match twenty twenty five,
and it could be a precursor towards the November election.
If Republicans don't start getting energized, it shows this. These
(06:38):
special elections are important because they show that Democrats really
have tremendous energy. They are angry, they are passionate. They're
talking about things like democracy that I know, like average
voters are not talking about, but they're worried about it.
They're still going to No King's rally. They are ready
for November. I don't know if Republicans realize how energized
(06:59):
they are, Like it's going to be very close to
may not be presidential election numbers, but it's going to
be very very high. And the only exception, the only
case where this is not true is when you have
a Democrat who likes to say the N word and
rail against Jews and women on social media. Then that case,
Republicans are still doing pretty good. But that's not every case,
that's only a few. Now, while we're on this subject
(07:21):
of elections, let's talk about Virginia, which is having the
early vote for their redistricting. They're having a constitutional Amendment. Remember,
the court said we are going to review if this
change in districts is legal after the people vote on it,
which I don't understand. I think that's the stupidest thing
in the world. But they're going to look at this
(07:43):
this after the vote. So there's an early vote coming
up right now for a change in the Virginia constitution
which will turn Virginia. Virginia is currently remember this is
the state that went for Kamala Harris by six points.
Currently has five safe or likely Democratic House seats for
safe or life Republican seats, and two swing seats, one
which has a Republican in it, one which has a
(08:05):
Democrat in it. It would change that very balanced map
to being ten Democrat seats, hard Democrats seats, one Republican.
It's pretty fair to say that this is one of
the most egregious examples of jerry mandering in the entire country.
It's up there with Illinois, It's up there with California,
(08:25):
It's up there with I mean, Tennessee. Maybe you could
argue there's very other few cases where there's this heavy
level of jerry mandering and they are aggressively going after
taking out four Republicans in the House Representatives. Well, the
early vote is in so far, and I have some numbers,
reports and numb Remember, Virginia does not have party registration,
(08:48):
so it's not like I can say this many Republicans
or this many Democrats. I don't know why they're on
party registration. I think states that don't have party registration
are crazy and chaotic. I like party registration, but they
don't have it. So we'll wo is based off of
the counties and how they performed in the governor's election.
Off of the twenty twenty five election. So far, nine
(09:09):
of the ten counties most overperforming in the early vote
so far voted Republican. Seven of the top ten bottom
counties that are underperforming their early vote from twenty twenty
five are Democratic counties. According to Chas nty Comb of
State Navigator, he says, one thing is absolutely clear right
now in the early in person vote so far, Republicans
(09:32):
are ahead. A lot of Western Republican dominated localities have
more votes so far than they did the same day
equivalent in twenty twenty five. There aren't any Spamberger one
localities running ahead. Now. Remember Virginia is still a Democratic state.
So their Republicans are running ahead of where they were
(09:52):
running in twenty twenty five, that does not mean that
they were ahead. More money and more resources have to
be or because you also need to try to win
the independent vote in uist the Italian deependence. This is unfair.
This is allowing politicians to pick their to pick their voters,
rather than voters picking their politicians. Really lean in heavily
on that and try to get get them motivated Virginia voters,
(10:17):
I feel would be more fair to that kind of messaging.
Then let's say California, especially California had already happened, and
Texas has already happened. So they both took out five
Texas took up five Democrats, California took up five Republicans.
They both, you know, split the baby. There's no reason
to go in now on Virginia. It's not like Republicans
(10:39):
are getting this massive lead in the registricting efforts the
way the White House thought they would. The White House
made this big gamble and it's not really working out
I think, as they expected. But I want to emphasize
this is very early. This was a baseball game. We
are not even out of the first inning yet, this
is the first week of early voting. But Republicans so
(11:00):
far are showing up. They're showing up because they're angry.
And anger motivates people to go vote. It is why
Democrats are voting any special elections. It's why they're going
to vote in November. But this case of the Virginia
redistricting is motivating a lot of Republicans to show up.
And you know what I would say is if you're
a Republican politician or political advisor or consultant or activists
(11:27):
or whatnot, what I would do if you were in Virginia,
look at every person on the voter rolls with a
Persian last name, Persian, Farsi, whatever the case is, where
their family probably comes from Iran, and send them an
email or reach out to them or doorknock to them
and say did you vote? We need you to vote no.
(11:47):
If you vote yes, they're going to indie President Trump,
who just killed the dictator that forced your family to flight.
I would do that. For Venezuelans, I would do that.
I mean Venezuelan's is hard because it's not like a
as unique of a last name as as Persians. But
I would do it for every single group that has
huge levels of support for Donald Trump. I think that
would be really, really, really important. Mobilization in these elections
(12:10):
is key right now, and the Republican rules and the
Republican exerbs really need to show up in presidential full
force to make sure that this does not go through. Okay,
that is my update for the special election in redistricting
fight in Virginia. Once again, Democrats are probably heading the
early vote because it's the fundamentals of the states, but
Republicans are doing the job and need to continue doing it.
(12:33):
I'm going to have now a longer than usual Ask
Me Anything segment for this Friday episode that asks me
up next stay tuned now it's time for the ask
Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of
the Ask Me Anything segment, emi me Ryan at Numbers
Gamepodcast dot com. It's Ryan at Numbers Plural Numbers Gamepodcast
dot Com. I will take any questions you have. People
(12:55):
have asked me is so and so good looking in
real life? They'll ask me out folks, movies, whatever the
case is. Let's get to it. I mean, it has
to be some appropriate for the show. But if it's okay.
I'll still answer it. Okay. First question comes from Derek.
He says, Hey, Ryan, big fan of the show. I
recently saw you post a Congress and Crenshaw and the
insider trading after his primary loss. I used to believe that,
(13:16):
but I don't think that's accurate. Now maybe it doesn't matter.
But if you listen to the mic drop podcast he
did in February, he brings the receipts and the proof,
so you can ask for the show if you really
don't do that much of anything at all. I get
what you're saying. And he talks about how Crenshaw is
very talented. Yes, Crenshaw is very talented. Here's the thing. So,
(13:36):
and maybe I misrepresented what I was saying. It is
not that I was saying he does the most amount
of stock trading. He doesn't. That's not the case. He
defended it the loudest, which makes no sense. Why you
would defend it the loudest if you're not doing the
most of it, right, and I don't think he was
doing most of it. He just you know, even Nancy Pelosi,
(13:59):
Nancy Peloe see is all about banning stock trading for
I mean publicly he's banning stock trading for congressman, and
she does millions of dollars in stock trades like it's crazy.
But for some reason he allowed himself to be the
face of it. It made utterly no sense at all.
I want to make something else, very very clear. It
(14:19):
wasn't that he was moderate, because he wasn't moderate. I
know people like to say that he was a moderate,
but he had a Republican voting record, like you know,
a standard Republican. He butted with Trump almost one hundred
percent of the time. The problem with Dan Crenshaw was this,
he was extremely, extremely arrogant. I had friends. I have
(14:40):
a lot of friends in the Texas political circles. They
told me. He started pulling his ads from Texas from
the TVs in Texas TV ads three weeks before election day,
thinking he didn't need them, so why spend the money.
He insulted donors who went back to Ted Cruz. He
had Ted Cruz involved, he had I'm not making light
(15:02):
of this. He has basically no friends in Congerce. No
one really enjoyed being around him, and even the craziest
members have friends. Even George Santos had friends like you could.
He was just obsessively and obscenely arrogant and went out
of his way to make people not like him. And
(15:23):
he was very talented and he was a great communicator,
and it's a lost to Republicans. But it is a
character flaw on his part. So I'm not saying he
did the most insentire trading and stock trading. I'm not
saying that at all. And if I did say, if
I alluded to it, I'm sorry. But he chose to
make himself the face of it by defending it so
vocally once again, makes no sense, Completely arrogant, and that's
(15:46):
why he lost. Okay, next question comes from Michael. Michael wrote,
Noam has had to go. She turned Trump's strongest issue
immigration and not only made it a liability, but made
it a big positive issue for Democrats. Frankly, she wasn't
smart enough and experience them to run DHS. Here's the
rumor on the street. You want to hear it. Allegedly,
(16:09):
let me take a sip of water for this one. Allegedly,
after Trump's victory, he allegedly reached out to Corey Lewandowski
and allegedly said to Corey, I like to offer you
some kind of job for being so loyal, and Corey
really went to bat for Christy and Trump now Christie
(16:35):
on True Social and allegedly he has a tendency Trump
when he's worked up, when he's angry, when someone can
press his buttons in the right way, if he's alone,
to take to truth Social to proclaim something, and once
it's out in either, it's out in either, there's no
one who's going to take it back. So maybe possibly
(16:59):
there is allegedly the same situation going on with with
with Corey, Christy and Trump, where Trump was all worked up,
he was, uh you know that, Uh, Corey was you
know by without along with them and was really pushing
for for Trump to to pick Christy and was doing
(17:20):
it before everyone was on the same page with it. Allegedly,
who knows, maybe it's not true, but I've heard it
from a bunch of people. You're right, but by for
those who are watching this program on YouTube, this is
my dog on my lap. It's not I have this.
He just won't shut up, so he's sitting in my lap.
I answering these questions. But as you asked, but is
(17:43):
Mullen really the best choice to take over. He has
no law enforcement experience or any experience running in a
large bureaucracy. But plus, he's very combative. Much of the
administration's problems is how their spokesmen come across as unnecessarily aggressive.
No one was a failure with the whole girl boss persona. Okay,
here's the thing. So is he the best Congress and immigration,
(18:05):
best center in immigration, No he's not. But on INSI reinforcement,
and on or security he has an A plus rating
from number USI. So there's that. That's the job. He's
got an A plus rating where it matters, right, so
take that for what it's worth. Secondly, he will not
be on an island by himself, right. There will still
(18:26):
be people like Tom Homan, who was completely sidelined according
to Politico, by the Lewandowski gnome you know click ps.
By the way, this story of the two hundred and
twenty million dollars were the ads and who which which
(18:48):
companies got those bids and how they were connected to
Corey Christy and their affiliates is not going away if
Democrats take over. Will I will bet to my bottom
dollar there will be an indictment going on over this
and if they take over the presidency, there will be
(19:10):
a special counsel possibly or just a the Attorney General
will will make some kind of effort to get them
behind Bowers for this for a corruption. I'm just side
note to everything. I've been thinking about this a lot lately,
and the more I look at it, the actual the
worst it gets with Christy Corey and their click. Anyway,
(19:32):
back to Mullen, He's not alone on the island. He
will sell Steven Miller. I think you will lean Heaver
on Tom Holman, which is a good thing. Holman's experience.
He's very smart and yeah, and I think that he's
gonna I think he's gonna be part of the team.
I think he's made a team player with what you need.
And I used to give him a chance. You know,
he wouldn't be my first pick, but he wouldn't be
(19:53):
on my radar at all, just because I wouldn't consider
him for that job. But apparently Trump did, and let's
just hope for the best. You also ask about President
Trump firing Pam BONDI. I don't think that's going to happen.
I think he really likes Pam Bondy. I know she
scored the Epstein files. Allegedly she was in a bathroom
(20:16):
with influencers, the ladies bathroom, talking very loudly about how
Anna Paulina Luna, the congressman from Florida, was pushing her
on the issue, and how much she hated Ana Polana
Luna for pushing on the issue, and that's kind of
why she released those binders full of nothing. Okay, next
question comes from Connor. Connor goes, hey, Ryan, you've been
(20:39):
of your work. Excited to have your own show, Thanks Connor.
I mean twenty five year old mail that grew up
in South Erie County, New York, a fellow New York
girlthough that's like Western New York in a town called Concord,
went to school in the University of Alabama. There you go,
was a Catholic college missionary for the last two years
in a different southern state, and about to start a
(21:00):
new job at an actuary in Atlanta. I don't know
what an actuary does. I think that's I don't know
what it does. Good luck to you, though I grew
very politically conservative. Family and culture shape a lot of
my opinions in early college. This area is ground zero
for rost Belt decline in an American sagnation, and she
was one of the few to call it trade policies
and immigration causes. Side note, I'm praying for her conversion.
(21:23):
I don't think that that's going to happen. It's one
of the things we talked about politics a lot. We've
we've learned to stop talking too much about religion and
and I okay, questions WN Western New York is largely
forgotten about in the context of the national politics. Do
you have an insight into the future trends of political
history of the area That yes, because New York State
(21:45):
is out of play. If New York, if Western New
York was its own state or upstate, whatever that really means.
I guess West of Aubany was its own state, it
would one hundred percent be in play right now because
it would be a swing state. Because New York State
is not a swing state, it is not given any
(22:05):
kind of coverage. It's unfair. I think it's completely unfair.
I think that part of New York is desperately needs
some kind of intervention and some hell places that towns
that were amazing and then like Kodak left, I forget
which city it was and it just devastated. I maybe
less of Rochester, just devastated in like that whole area, Niagara, Jamestown, Eerie, Buffalo.
(22:27):
It absolutely needs help. But that's really why because it's
in a blue state. Otherwise, if it was if it
was in Pennsylvania, if that was part of Pennsylvania, it
would one million percent and get a lot of coverage.
Is there any data on how people vote that moved
to a different state, for example, what are the political
characters of California or New York as I moved to
Tennessee or Georgia. This is a great question. The New
(22:47):
York Times, I get the question, asked a lot. The
New York Times did a fabulous breakdown of how voters
are moving. Most voters who are Democrat move to Democrat
super areas, so they don't go Most Democrats do not
move to a purple area. They do not move to
a red area. They may move to a red state,
but they will only move to the bluest parts of
(23:10):
that red state. And what happened during COVID, especially Governor
de Santa's' team coming us. What happened during COVID was
so many New Yorkers and so many Democrats from across
the country really bought the media's big bag of bullshit
on COVID statistics that they thought moving to Texas or
Florida was a death sentence. They were like, absolutely not.
(23:33):
You know, it's death Santas. Millions of people going to
die in that state because they are not all wearing
masks and living in plastic bubbles, and that kept people
Democrats far away from those states. It really supercharged the
Republican enrollment registration over in Florida. Okay, last question you asked,
maybe too personal free to ignore. Clearly pro life positions
(23:56):
are an electoral Miles Millstone, I love Jdvans for being
but I'm sad to see him move away from his
total pro life position, although I'm completely understanding given the
political context. I know you have mentioned your Catholic Do
you have a difficult time watching the Republican Party slowly
drift left on social issues? Is there any data to
indicate that some Republics will eventually set things out of
the party goes too far left? Okay, this is a
(24:18):
so I worked for JD and I am Catholic. No,
I'm not saying because the Republican Party's job is to
represent voters. The Republican Party's job is to get people
elected to office. Your job as a Catholic clearly a
very serious one. Your job as a you know, pro
(24:39):
life person is to try to reduce the number of abortions.
It's very difficult for jd to or whoever Trump, to
say we need more abortion laws restrictions when all the
states that have done the restrictions are Republican states. Now,
you could sit there and say we should and I
know he said, sit there and say, but you could
(25:01):
say we should try to force us on the blue states,
but we've gotten a lot done on the red states.
The progression on the pro life movement is so immense.
You know, you're twenty five years old. So I'm not
saying you're dumb, but you I don't even say it,
but you're not. I'm saying you've gotten a much smaller
(25:21):
series of life experiences and maybe knowledge on the political past.
I would say two thousand and twelve. I want to
say twenty twelve was the first time the Republican Party,
or maybe even twenty sixteen was the first time the
Republican Party had only pro lifers running for president on
(25:43):
their party's ticket. That's how real, that is how much
the pro choice part of the party was very dominant.
I know, the narrative is that they never you know,
Republicans were always go ininst abortion. Yes, there were wings
the Republican Party alwaysginst abortion, but as a whole there
were a plethora of pro choicers that dominated the party.
(26:05):
I mean, all you have left now is Lisa Murkowski
and Susan Collins. Really at the Senate anyway, you have
a handful of people in the House, and that's about it.
The progression of the Republican Party to spend decades working
to nominate pro life judges to get Roe v. Waight overturned.
And if your goal, and this is what I always
(26:27):
express to pro lifers who are disappointed, your goal should
be one goal, reduce the number of abortions. Until Roe
was overturned, the number of abortions nationwide was significantly declining,
and then it spiked up. So the goal should not be, Hey,
(26:49):
let's pass an abortion man everywhere. We should go back,
you know several stages before Row was overturned, and what
was the pro life movement doing. Let's make sure that
abortion clinics are near hospitals. Let's make sure that there
are more regulations on the abortion industry, make it more
difficult for abortion clinics to operate, and that will put
(27:12):
them out of business. That's what a pro life movement
was doing until Roe was overturned, and then they said no, actually,
forget all these laws. Let's just get it fanned everywhere,
even though it was not politically feasible. Do what's politically
feasible to achieve your goal. Don't ask for a purity tesk.
I'm not yelling at you, but don't ask for a
purity task where you're saying it has to be this way. No,
(27:35):
let's just reduce a number of dead babies, however that
may be, and that may look different in different places,
and that may not be possible in certain places right now.
But where it's possible, do what's possible, and where it
is impossible, look to change it. That is the real
message that I would say. And as far as other
social policies, Yeah, gay marriage is out the door. That's
(27:59):
not the issue, and I think think that that's you know,
that is very clear to everybody. Let's like the gun issue,
do you know in nineteen eighty seven and the year
that I was born, the only state to have constecial
carry was Vermont, Texas was it had so many regulations
on guns. States in the West had so many regulation
(28:20):
regulations on guns it was insane. A majority of states
now have const soecial carry, including half of the states
in New England. So you may say the social the
conservative movement isn't winning anything, hasn't concerned anything. That's it's nonsense.
It's just not true. People have spent decades building this
and doing little things here and there and here and
(28:41):
there that have made tremendous progress. It's not perfect, but
America is safer today than it ever has been. America's
got more pro life bills, you know, in law since
the nineteen seventies. There are more rights to own guns
than ever before. I think, going back like the Revolution,
(29:02):
there are men's schemes that even social conservatives have made.
Where they have failed is that not everybody has then
carried out in their own personal lives which the government
can't control. And you shouldn't ask it to. You should
do the most for what you can of what you have. Okay,
more asked me. Anything is coming up next. Okay, it's
(29:22):
time for more Ask me anything. This question comes from Kelly.
She says, Hey, Ryan, love your show. I like to
hear your thoughts about the Illinois goubernatorial election. I'm a
lifelong Illinois resident who despises Pritzker and he has done
to our state, particularly during COVID. Darren Bailey seems to
be the front runner for the Republican nomination, but he
already lost to Prisker once person. I like Ted Dabrowski,
(29:44):
I mean fellow Polock Hello, but I'm not sure he
has enough support. We'd love to hear your thoughts on
the candidate, if they have a shop being Pritzker. Yeah, Prisker,
I mean, listen, prince who's got a gazillion dollars. He's
rich as anything. There's no way to kind of circle that,
and he's the incumbent. It's just going to be very difficult.
(30:04):
I'm looking if there's any polls right now. I've seen them,
but I haven't seen Republicans really make any inroads anywhere enough.
You know the problem is is that so Illinois, even
worse than New York, is so dominated by such a
heavy population concentration. In one specific area. And whenever a
(30:29):
state has that, you really have a difficulty where that
state calls all the shots. Chicago just calls all the
shots Chicago and the strong suburbs, and a lot of
the suburbs are just woke, lefty places. I mean, that's
just the truth of it. So Republicans can to make
and Democrats have done a tremendous job at jerrymandering. Tremendous,
(30:50):
I mean, one of the most talented gerrymandering I think
in the entire country, both in Congress and in the
state legislature. They did it hook line and sinker to
make sure voters have no say in anything. They just did.
Democrats were I mean, listen, hats off to Democrats. You
did it. You made sure you disenfranchise every voter in Illinois,
(31:11):
and you did it right. So so far in so
I'm looking at the polls right now, so far Bailey
has a significantly but it's not, you know, overwhelming, And
in the general election right now, Pritsker has a twenty
point lead. I just think that Illinois is in a
rough shape. I mean it's it's it's just in rough
shape right now. I don't know how else to say. It.
(31:33):
I mean, I know New York is, I know a
lot of other places are, but Illinois and probably of
all the big blue states, Illinois is probably in the
worst shape that there is. I think it's even a
worship in California. Okay. Next question comes from John. I
know that wasn't by the way, Kelly, that wasn't an
uplifting thing. I know, I know I usually give a
positive thing, but it's it's not great in Illinois. I
(31:55):
if there is a if there is a strong candidate
who's gonna run, they're gonna run, wait and Scres no
longer the nominee and have a vacant seat in a
better year. Maybe that's the ray of hope. Especially comes
from John John High Ryan. Are there any state propositions
to amend this constitutions to require voter ID in state
and federal elections? How hard is it to get a
(32:16):
proposition on the ballot? What does it cost an az
We had a proposition three on nine, but it lost
by eighteen thy us in twenty twenty two. Help me
understand the results versus suppose that eighty percent broad support
for voter ID the media claims, is it really has
brought support. It seems a voter id shit of the
advances advanced by the right, like abortion and was ensconced
(32:37):
in the state constitution by the left. Okay, thank you.
That's a really great question. So it depends on the state.
State by state, there is a multitude of different ways
to get a ballot proposition. Some states don't even have
ballid propositions, but is It is a multitude of different
states that have a different regulation. So it's impossible for
(32:57):
me to say, can you get it here or can
you get it there? I don't know. As far as
propositions to get put id on the ballot, I have
not seen any as of yet. They should have already
been they should have already been processed. We would already
seen them. Usually there's a signatory like you need signatures
and money and time. It's I would say it's less
(33:20):
money than it is just you need a ton of
volunteers and someone with a little political knowledge of dates
and deadlines and requirements as far as that goes. And
when you file anything that comes with signatures, you always
need to get more because people claim a signature is
beat or it's not the right person or not the
(33:40):
right signature. And they always find with signatures. So if
they requires ten thousand signatures, you need thirty thousand signatures.
That kind of thing. As far as the proposition goes for,
I had not heard of this one before you send
me the email. As for proposition three or nine in Arizona,
I was unaware of it before you had met. Yeah,
there was a proposition to require The exact quote was
(34:06):
The exact phrase was, it would require voter ID on
mail in ballots, so it says a vote free. Yes.
Was making multiple changes to Arizona voter identification of mail
in ballot policies, including a required dates of birth and
voter ID number for mail in ballots and eliminating the
existing two document alternative to voter ID or in person voting.
(34:27):
It lost fifty point they voter said no, fifty point
three eight to forty nine point six y two, very
very very close. It was yeah, eighteen thousand, five hundred votes.
So I'm looking up this this this case, and all
I can come down to as to why I think
this is right after the you know, Arizona claim that
(34:49):
the election was stolen, which you can or cannot believe.
I'm not going to relitigate it. But it left a
lot of people in Arizona with very, very sour grapes.
And I think the carry a Lake running the campaign
at Cheheran as Cheeran. It made the issue the issue
with her and voters did not like her, and I
(35:12):
think that it really affected kind of everybody and Democrats
at the surge that a year. So all I can
sit there and tell you is that Democrats of the
surge of the year and they were voting against anything
that reminded them of the electron was stolen. I don't know,
because usually those malad measures when they brought up for
a vote, actually passed, So I don't know. Try it again.
I think if they brought up again, it probably would pass. Arizona,
by the way, was a state that did not recommend
(35:33):
I recognized Martin Luther king Day and has brought for
a vote and they voted it down and they voted
for it. So bring up for a vote again, Okay.
Next question comes from Shnapiro writes, Hey, Ryan, hope you're
getting through lent without many breaks to your sacrifices. I
have broken it twice, Jnapiro. I gave up secular music
for Lent, and I listened to music all day long,
(35:55):
every day, so it's actually been a sacrifice. And I
tell you the problem is Christian rock is genuinely awful.
I mean, there's like a few people or do a
decent job, but it's genuinely some of the worst music
I've ever heard. There's a guy who sings a song
called counting My Blessings. He's good. There's literally there's like
a handful. There's maybe like five people who do a
(36:16):
decent job. No one is like an amazing job. And
I like a lot of gospel music, but you can
only listen to it so many times. Like it's been very,
very rough this lent. I thought that it was going
to be much easier. It is not. What does the
data show without the value of phone banking for campaigns
not in polling. I worked on a congressional campaign a
(36:37):
few years ago, and after two thousand phone calls, I
had fewer than ten conversations more than five minutes, longer
than the vast majority of people who didn't pick up,
hang up, amediately or already have their mindset up on
the issues. Putting aside the advice of professional campaign consultants
who charge exorbitant fees even in unwinterable races. Is there
any real value to phone banking in my opinion, this
(37:01):
is not what every consultant will tell you. In my opinion,
not anymore. There once was. That's absolutely true. Once upon
a time a phone banking made a big difference. And also,
if you have volunteers that have nothing to do, you
might as well have them phone bank. You gotta do something. Right.
If you have a bunch of older women there and
they want to do something to help you and they
(37:23):
can't door knock, well, then yes, then go go make
phone calls if you have that time. It can't be
your whole entire campaign. And I would say the way
you do it properly is you call people. If I
was in term of a phone bank, what I would
do is this, organize the list of voters sixty and
(37:46):
older and sixteen younger. And during the day you call
people sixteen older, more likely retired, more like to be home,
more like the answer the phone call. During the day,
they're out shopping, they have times so that they're in talk
for a little bit, or they're not working the point
they're not working. And then at in the PM hours,
I would get foreign language foreign language speakers or bilingual
(38:09):
speakers and have them on the phone with people of
the same surname that they speak the language for. I
would not call the average show in in the evening
no answers to the phone because of that, That's what
I would do. So, yes, can it be used effectively? Yes?
Is it often use effectively? No? And it's really the
only way you want to use it is if you
(38:31):
have volunteers, specifically senior citizens who can't really walk, they
can't go sign waving, they have to sit for a
long periods of time. But they have the time they
should be out doing the phone calling for free. Consultant
shall not pay enormous amounts, so fees for it. You
can get burner phones, you can get call systems that
dial automatically, whatever the case is. But that's my best
(38:51):
advice for phone banking. I would not if I was
I was actually just doing a school board election and
they asked I wanted to pay for phone banking, and
I said no. Okay. Last question comes from Sam. Sam says, Hey, Ryan,
big fan and longtime listener, you held up your own
against my client Michael Tracy the SOHO for him. That
was such a great form. I really enjoyed that, and
(39:12):
Michael was a really, really nice guy. It was not
the person I met him, but he was a really
pleasant person to talk to. His mom was there, and
if my memory servesly correct, I actually beat him in
that form in the debate, but he was very, very nice.
I really don't like not that most of my I
know Michael Tracy is, but he's a left wing blogger
and writer and reporter, and he's made a big story
(39:36):
about how he thinks a lot of the people who
claimed to be abused by Epstein their allegations would not
stand up in court, and it's very thought provoking. I
don't know if I agree with it. I'm not like
an expert of the Epstein stuff, but I find it
intriguing and worth listening to. And the way people have
treated him, and they've said, you know, he's being paid off,
he's working for Mossad, whatever the case they've said, is
(40:00):
really kind of gross. I just think he's a deeply
intellectual and thoughtful person and he's asking important questions. So
where are those questions lead? I'm not exactly sure, but
I don't think that he's doing a bad thing by
asking them. Okay, you said last week someone had a
question about opposition to Virginia democrats redistricting effort. I'm sure
you know this already, but just in case, Eric Hendrick,
Jason Mirras and a few others from a group in
(40:21):
opposition to the new maps despite the GP leadership, is
a bipartisan effort. And the first tbads are airing tomorrow. Okay, awesome,
so they're already airing. Here is the link. It's called
vafairmaps dot com. Please feel free to shed the spread
the word vafairmaps dot com. Thank you so much. Sam.
(40:41):
That is so great. I definitely well, I did already,
but I'll share, I'll tweet it. I think that that's
really really important, and I think that I think politicians
should not pick their voters votership their politicians. It gets
me knowing when both parties do it. But now it's
the Angel place where it's going to be like really
insane as as time starts picking up and there's kind
of the trains lot the station. I'm not in charge.
(41:02):
I'll just report the facts to you guys. It's quote friendly,
but It's my great lot in life is that I
am always a godfather and never a god so I
don't get to make any decisions on anything. No one
listen to me anyway. All right, guys, that's this episode.
I hope you enjoyed it. I hope you like this podcast.
If you do, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts, or on YouTube.
(41:23):
Give me a thumbs up and press subscribe. I appreciate you.
And if you're feeling really generous this weekend, a five
star review goes fast. We can see the podcast. I
will talk to you guys on Monday
Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast with Ryan Gurduski.
Thank you guys for being here again. A happy Friday.
We've made it through another week and we have a
lot to catch up on. There's a lot of things
going on in the news that just kind of come
at you so quickly that you really don't not being
not a daily show, so I don't have every day
to talk about, but these are the things I think
are worth picking up on, especially when it comes to
(00:23):
what's going on with elections and a lot of the
earlier numbers coming out of Virginia for their redistricting effort.
So let's get into it first. Some good news for
Republicans GOP Jean Lacroix flipped a Democrat seat in Prince
William County Board of a Supervisor. So this is local,
This is like county legislative type thing, but it's important
(00:45):
because Prince William County is the second most populated county
in the state of Virginia. Democrats now have a five
to three majority. They're one seat away from tying it
up and two seats away from flipping the majority. Be
a big deal. So the first time in thirty eight
years that this seat has flipped from Democrat to Republican.
So what happened? Democrats nominated guy named Mohammed Surf Cassin
(01:09):
and he won his primary by a mere thirty three votes,
running to the far left of the Democratic Party. Well,
it turns out mister Cassim was a big fan of
writing things on social media. He is good. This is
the story that is going to come out more and
more and more as more millennials are running for office
and we're the generation that were like the more or
(01:30):
less the guinea pigs of social media, really likened to
put whatever they wanted to out there. Well, from twenty
twelve to twenty fifteen, mister Cassin, who is Muslim, liked
to put the N word on social media a lot,
like a lot, a lot, big fan of the Edward
with the soft A not the hard R. Not that
(01:50):
that makes a difference, but nonetheless he would joke about
things like this is one of the more wholesome jokes
I could tell. He said, you can't call a tigger
or you can't call a tiger a tiga, only they
can call themselves tig up, which is like more harmless,
I guess than I mean the other ones were explicit Edward. Also,
(02:11):
you can imagine a man with a name Mohammed surf
Cassim probably not a big fan of Jews or feminism.
His laundry list of comments even caused Democrats demand that
he stepped down, and when he refused, the candidate decided.
Of the candidate who had lost the primary, decided to
run a write in campaign, believing he could win just
(02:33):
doing a writing campaign and flip the district as a
Democrat but independent Democrat. Well, he was wrong. In the end,
Miss Lacroix, the Republican won by seven points, winning forty
four percent of the vote in a basically three way race.
This is especially important given what I said to you
last episode about main Democrat Graham Platner. Lots of things
(02:54):
he's written on social media, same things with James Tallerrico.
I mentioned that like last week about the Texas guy,
Lots of things on social media, lots of things that
Republicans are not spending a lot of money on, talking
about his social media history. If you're going to run
for office years beforehand, you should probably start scrubbing your
social media it works in your favor. The best case
(03:15):
of this is Congressman Abe Hamaday from Arizona. He's a Republican,
wrote on social media a lot. Loved to call when
he was a younger guy in his early twenties and
his mid twenties, loved to call Republicans racists. Love to
call Republicans who support immigration restrictionist racist, YadA, YadA, YadA, YadA.
And then, for whatever reason, twenty sixteen to twenty eighteen,
(03:40):
his entire social media scrubbed. Can't imagine why. What his
original opinions of Donald Trump were. My guess is it's
not what he says now. Nonetheless, there's no proof because
he deleted. He was smart. He was smart to delete
his social media in those years where he was probably
more than more than the average Republican was hesitant towards
(04:04):
Trump at the time. He was probably calling Trump or
racist every five seconds. We don't know because he with
social media. But nonethless, if you're going to run for
office and you'd like to be spiced on social media
years beforehand, deleted. All okay, Now, they're good news for Democrats.
Democrats overperformed in a number of special elections, especially in
state legislatures. They flipped the seat in New Hampshire State
House or representatives. New Hampshire State House is four hundred seats,
(04:27):
so it wasn't like it's a big seat. It's basically
like a block or two. It's a small, tiny district.
Voters swung seventeen points to the left in this New
Hampshire district in the area of Carol. It was a
district that Trump won by nine points. In George's fourteen
congressional district, a Republican and Democrat are headed to a runoff.
This is the old Marjorie Taylor Green Congressional district. The
(04:50):
Democrats are so far outperforming where they were in twenty
twenty four by seventeen points. It's such a Republican seat
that it doesn't matter like the Republican's going to win,
but they are. Democrats are overperforming again. In the Georgia
State Senate district that Trump from by fifty eight points
that had a special election, Democrats overperformed Kamwa Howards's results
(05:11):
by twelve points. And then in another a special election
in Georgia and the State House, which is a super
democratic area, Democrats still overperformed by eight points. So this
is not great when you look at the total of
the thirty special elections that occurred in twenty twenty six
just this year. So far, in the first three months
of this year, Democrats on average have outperformed where they
(05:33):
were in those districts in twenty twenty four by twelve points,
very similar to the twelve point two points Democrats outperformed
their twenty twenty four numbers in twenty twenty five, and
that year was a landslide victory. November that year was
a shellacking for Republicans. Now, as I said in the past,
Republicans have been doing better in special elections this year
(05:54):
than they were of the year before. That all started
to change at the end of February. At the end
of for whatever reason, Republicans had six or seven special
elections where they were just getting obliterated and their average,
which was getting much better, just fell apart. It just
completely fell apart. I don't understand why the last six
or seven special elections have gone so heavily to Democrats
(06:16):
when the previous special elections just a few weeks before,
we're going more for its Republicans. It could be a
candidate thing, it could just be the new cycle, it
could be the around war. I don't really know, but
that has changed the averages to really match twenty twenty five,
and it could be a precursor towards the November election.
If Republicans don't start getting energized, it shows this. These
(06:38):
special elections are important because they show that Democrats really
have tremendous energy. They are angry, they are passionate. They're
talking about things like democracy that I know, like average
voters are not talking about, but they're worried about it.
They're still going to No King's rally. They are ready
for November. I don't know if Republicans realize how energized
(06:59):
they are, Like it's going to be very close to
may not be presidential election numbers, but it's going to
be very very high. And the only exception, the only
case where this is not true is when you have
a Democrat who likes to say the N word and
rail against Jews and women on social media. Then that case,
Republicans are still doing pretty good. But that's not every case,
that's only a few. Now, while we're on this subject
(07:21):
of elections, let's talk about Virginia, which is having the
early vote for their redistricting. They're having a constitutional Amendment. Remember,
the court said we are going to review if this
change in districts is legal after the people vote on it,
which I don't understand. I think that's the stupidest thing
in the world. But they're going to look at this
(07:43):
this after the vote. So there's an early vote coming
up right now for a change in the Virginia constitution
which will turn Virginia. Virginia is currently remember this is
the state that went for Kamala Harris by six points.
Currently has five safe or likely Democratic House seats for
safe or life Republican seats, and two swing seats, one
which has a Republican in it, one which has a
(08:05):
Democrat in it. It would change that very balanced map
to being ten Democrat seats, hard Democrats seats, one Republican.
It's pretty fair to say that this is one of
the most egregious examples of jerry mandering in the entire country.
It's up there with Illinois, It's up there with California,
(08:25):
It's up there with I mean, Tennessee. Maybe you could
argue there's very other few cases where there's this heavy
level of jerry mandering and they are aggressively going after
taking out four Republicans in the House Representatives. Well, the
early vote is in so far, and I have some numbers,
reports and numb Remember, Virginia does not have party registration,
(08:48):
so it's not like I can say this many Republicans
or this many Democrats. I don't know why they're on
party registration. I think states that don't have party registration
are crazy and chaotic. I like party registration, but they
don't have it. So we'll wo is based off of
the counties and how they performed in the governor's election.
Off of the twenty twenty five election. So far, nine
(09:09):
of the ten counties most overperforming in the early vote
so far voted Republican. Seven of the top ten bottom
counties that are underperforming their early vote from twenty twenty
five are Democratic counties. According to Chas nty Comb of
State Navigator, he says, one thing is absolutely clear right
now in the early in person vote so far, Republicans
(09:32):
are ahead. A lot of Western Republican dominated localities have
more votes so far than they did the same day
equivalent in twenty twenty five. There aren't any Spamberger one
localities running ahead. Now. Remember Virginia is still a Democratic state.
So their Republicans are running ahead of where they were
(09:52):
running in twenty twenty five, that does not mean that
they were ahead. More money and more resources have to
be or because you also need to try to win
the independent vote in uist the Italian deependence. This is unfair.
This is allowing politicians to pick their to pick their voters,
rather than voters picking their politicians. Really lean in heavily
on that and try to get get them motivated Virginia voters,
(10:17):
I feel would be more fair to that kind of messaging.
Then let's say California, especially California had already happened, and
Texas has already happened. So they both took out five
Texas took up five Democrats, California took up five Republicans.
They both, you know, split the baby. There's no reason
to go in now on Virginia. It's not like Republicans
(10:39):
are getting this massive lead in the registricting efforts the
way the White House thought they would. The White House
made this big gamble and it's not really working out
I think, as they expected. But I want to emphasize
this is very early. This was a baseball game. We
are not even out of the first inning yet, this
is the first week of early voting. But Republicans so
(11:00):
far are showing up. They're showing up because they're angry.
And anger motivates people to go vote. It is why
Democrats are voting any special elections. It's why they're going
to vote in November. But this case of the Virginia
redistricting is motivating a lot of Republicans to show up.
And you know what I would say is if you're
a Republican politician or political advisor or consultant or activists
(11:27):
or whatnot, what I would do if you were in Virginia,
look at every person on the voter rolls with a
Persian last name, Persian, Farsi, whatever the case is, where
their family probably comes from Iran, and send them an
email or reach out to them or doorknock to them
and say did you vote? We need you to vote no.
(11:47):
If you vote yes, they're going to indie President Trump,
who just killed the dictator that forced your family to flight.
I would do that. For Venezuelans, I would do that.
I mean Venezuelan's is hard because it's not like a
as unique of a last name as as Persians. But
I would do it for every single group that has
huge levels of support for Donald Trump. I think that
would be really, really, really important. Mobilization in these elections
(12:10):
is key right now, and the Republican rules and the
Republican exerbs really need to show up in presidential full
force to make sure that this does not go through. Okay,
that is my update for the special election in redistricting
fight in Virginia. Once again, Democrats are probably heading the
early vote because it's the fundamentals of the states, but
Republicans are doing the job and need to continue doing it.
(12:33):
I'm going to have now a longer than usual Ask
Me Anything segment for this Friday episode that asks me
up next stay tuned now it's time for the ask
Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of
the Ask Me Anything segment, emi me Ryan at Numbers
Gamepodcast dot com. It's Ryan at Numbers Plural Numbers Gamepodcast
dot Com. I will take any questions you have. People
(12:55):
have asked me is so and so good looking in
real life? They'll ask me out folks, movies, whatever the
case is. Let's get to it. I mean, it has
to be some appropriate for the show. But if it's okay.
I'll still answer it. Okay. First question comes from Derek.
He says, Hey, Ryan, big fan of the show. I
recently saw you post a Congress and Crenshaw and the
insider trading after his primary loss. I used to believe that,
(13:16):
but I don't think that's accurate. Now maybe it doesn't matter.
But if you listen to the mic drop podcast he
did in February, he brings the receipts and the proof,
so you can ask for the show if you really
don't do that much of anything at all. I get
what you're saying. And he talks about how Crenshaw is
very talented. Yes, Crenshaw is very talented. Here's the thing. So,
(13:36):
and maybe I misrepresented what I was saying. It is
not that I was saying he does the most amount
of stock trading. He doesn't. That's not the case. He
defended it the loudest, which makes no sense. Why you
would defend it the loudest if you're not doing the
most of it, right, and I don't think he was
doing most of it. He just you know, even Nancy Pelosi,
(13:59):
Nancy Peloe see is all about banning stock trading for
I mean publicly he's banning stock trading for congressman, and
she does millions of dollars in stock trades like it's crazy.
But for some reason he allowed himself to be the
face of it. It made utterly no sense at all.
I want to make something else, very very clear. It
(14:19):
wasn't that he was moderate, because he wasn't moderate. I
know people like to say that he was a moderate,
but he had a Republican voting record, like you know,
a standard Republican. He butted with Trump almost one hundred
percent of the time. The problem with Dan Crenshaw was this,
he was extremely, extremely arrogant. I had friends. I have
(14:40):
a lot of friends in the Texas political circles. They
told me. He started pulling his ads from Texas from
the TVs in Texas TV ads three weeks before election day,
thinking he didn't need them, so why spend the money.
He insulted donors who went back to Ted Cruz. He
had Ted Cruz involved, he had I'm not making light
(15:02):
of this. He has basically no friends in Congerce. No
one really enjoyed being around him, and even the craziest
members have friends. Even George Santos had friends like you could.
He was just obsessively and obscenely arrogant and went out
of his way to make people not like him. And
(15:23):
he was very talented and he was a great communicator,
and it's a lost to Republicans. But it is a
character flaw on his part. So I'm not saying he
did the most insentire trading and stock trading. I'm not
saying that at all. And if I did say, if
I alluded to it, I'm sorry. But he chose to
make himself the face of it by defending it so
vocally once again, makes no sense, Completely arrogant, and that's
(15:46):
why he lost. Okay, next question comes from Michael. Michael wrote,
Noam has had to go. She turned Trump's strongest issue
immigration and not only made it a liability, but made
it a big positive issue for Democrats. Frankly, she wasn't
smart enough and experience them to run DHS. Here's the
rumor on the street. You want to hear it. Allegedly,
(16:09):
let me take a sip of water for this one. Allegedly,
after Trump's victory, he allegedly reached out to Corey Lewandowski
and allegedly said to Corey, I like to offer you
some kind of job for being so loyal, and Corey
really went to bat for Christy and Trump now Christie
(16:35):
on True Social and allegedly he has a tendency Trump
when he's worked up, when he's angry, when someone can
press his buttons in the right way, if he's alone,
to take to truth Social to proclaim something, and once
it's out in either, it's out in either, there's no
one who's going to take it back. So maybe possibly
(16:59):
there is allegedly the same situation going on with with
with Corey, Christy and Trump, where Trump was all worked up,
he was, uh you know that, Uh, Corey was you
know by without along with them and was really pushing
for for Trump to to pick Christy and was doing
(17:20):
it before everyone was on the same page with it. Allegedly,
who knows, maybe it's not true, but I've heard it
from a bunch of people. You're right, but by for
those who are watching this program on YouTube, this is
my dog on my lap. It's not I have this.
He just won't shut up, so he's sitting in my lap.
I answering these questions. But as you asked, but is
(17:43):
Mullen really the best choice to take over. He has
no law enforcement experience or any experience running in a
large bureaucracy. But plus, he's very combative. Much of the
administration's problems is how their spokesmen come across as unnecessarily aggressive.
No one was a failure with the whole girl boss persona. Okay,
here's the thing. So is he the best Congress and immigration,
(18:05):
best center in immigration, No he's not. But on INSI reinforcement,
and on or security he has an A plus rating
from number USI. So there's that. That's the job. He's
got an A plus rating where it matters, right, so
take that for what it's worth. Secondly, he will not
be on an island by himself, right. There will still
(18:26):
be people like Tom Homan, who was completely sidelined according
to Politico, by the Lewandowski gnome you know click ps.
By the way, this story of the two hundred and
twenty million dollars were the ads and who which which
(18:48):
companies got those bids and how they were connected to
Corey Christy and their affiliates is not going away if
Democrats take over. Will I will bet to my bottom
dollar there will be an indictment going on over this
and if they take over the presidency, there will be
(19:10):
a special counsel possibly or just a the Attorney General
will will make some kind of effort to get them
behind Bowers for this for a corruption. I'm just side
note to everything. I've been thinking about this a lot lately,
and the more I look at it, the actual the
worst it gets with Christy Corey and their click. Anyway,
(19:32):
back to Mullen, He's not alone on the island. He
will sell Steven Miller. I think you will lean Heaver
on Tom Holman, which is a good thing. Holman's experience.
He's very smart and yeah, and I think that he's
gonna I think he's gonna be part of the team.
I think he's made a team player with what you need.
And I used to give him a chance. You know,
he wouldn't be my first pick, but he wouldn't be
(19:53):
on my radar at all, just because I wouldn't consider
him for that job. But apparently Trump did, and let's
just hope for the best. You also ask about President
Trump firing Pam BONDI. I don't think that's going to happen.
I think he really likes Pam Bondy. I know she
scored the Epstein files. Allegedly she was in a bathroom
(20:16):
with influencers, the ladies bathroom, talking very loudly about how
Anna Paulina Luna, the congressman from Florida, was pushing her
on the issue, and how much she hated Ana Polana
Luna for pushing on the issue, and that's kind of
why she released those binders full of nothing. Okay, next
question comes from Connor. Connor goes, hey, Ryan, you've been
(20:39):
of your work. Excited to have your own show, Thanks Connor.
I mean twenty five year old mail that grew up
in South Erie County, New York, a fellow New York
girlthough that's like Western New York in a town called Concord,
went to school in the University of Alabama. There you go,
was a Catholic college missionary for the last two years
in a different southern state, and about to start a
(21:00):
new job at an actuary in Atlanta. I don't know
what an actuary does. I think that's I don't know
what it does. Good luck to you, though I grew
very politically conservative. Family and culture shape a lot of
my opinions in early college. This area is ground zero
for rost Belt decline in an American sagnation, and she
was one of the few to call it trade policies
and immigration causes. Side note, I'm praying for her conversion.
(21:23):
I don't think that that's going to happen. It's one
of the things we talked about politics a lot. We've
we've learned to stop talking too much about religion and
and I okay, questions WN Western New York is largely
forgotten about in the context of the national politics. Do
you have an insight into the future trends of political
history of the area That yes, because New York State
(21:45):
is out of play. If New York, if Western New
York was its own state or upstate, whatever that really means.
I guess West of Aubany was its own state, it
would one hundred percent be in play right now because
it would be a swing state. Because New York State
is not a swing state, it is not given any
(22:05):
kind of coverage. It's unfair. I think it's completely unfair.
I think that part of New York is desperately needs
some kind of intervention and some hell places that towns
that were amazing and then like Kodak left, I forget
which city it was and it just devastated. I maybe
less of Rochester, just devastated in like that whole area, Niagara, Jamestown, Eerie, Buffalo.
(22:27):
It absolutely needs help. But that's really why because it's
in a blue state. Otherwise, if it was if it
was in Pennsylvania, if that was part of Pennsylvania, it
would one million percent and get a lot of coverage.
Is there any data on how people vote that moved
to a different state, for example, what are the political
characters of California or New York as I moved to
Tennessee or Georgia. This is a great question. The New
(22:47):
York Times, I get the question, asked a lot. The
New York Times did a fabulous breakdown of how voters
are moving. Most voters who are Democrat move to Democrat
super areas, so they don't go Most Democrats do not
move to a purple area. They do not move to
a red area. They may move to a red state,
but they will only move to the bluest parts of
(23:10):
that red state. And what happened during COVID, especially Governor
de Santa's' team coming us. What happened during COVID was
so many New Yorkers and so many Democrats from across
the country really bought the media's big bag of bullshit
on COVID statistics that they thought moving to Texas or
Florida was a death sentence. They were like, absolutely not.
(23:33):
You know, it's death Santas. Millions of people going to
die in that state because they are not all wearing
masks and living in plastic bubbles, and that kept people
Democrats far away from those states. It really supercharged the
Republican enrollment registration over in Florida. Okay, last question you asked,
maybe too personal free to ignore. Clearly pro life positions
(23:56):
are an electoral Miles Millstone, I love Jdvans for being
but I'm sad to see him move away from his
total pro life position, although I'm completely understanding given the
political context. I know you have mentioned your Catholic Do
you have a difficult time watching the Republican Party slowly
drift left on social issues? Is there any data to
indicate that some Republics will eventually set things out of
the party goes too far left? Okay, this is a
(24:18):
so I worked for JD and I am Catholic. No,
I'm not saying because the Republican Party's job is to
represent voters. The Republican Party's job is to get people
elected to office. Your job as a Catholic clearly a
very serious one. Your job as a you know, pro
(24:39):
life person is to try to reduce the number of abortions.
It's very difficult for jd to or whoever Trump, to
say we need more abortion laws restrictions when all the
states that have done the restrictions are Republican states. Now,
you could sit there and say we should and I
know he said, sit there and say, but you could
(25:01):
say we should try to force us on the blue states,
but we've gotten a lot done on the red states.
The progression on the pro life movement is so immense.
You know, you're twenty five years old. So I'm not
saying you're dumb, but you I don't even say it,
but you're not. I'm saying you've gotten a much smaller
(25:21):
series of life experiences and maybe knowledge on the political past.
I would say two thousand and twelve. I want to
say twenty twelve was the first time the Republican Party,
or maybe even twenty sixteen was the first time the
Republican Party had only pro lifers running for president on
(25:43):
their party's ticket. That's how real, that is how much
the pro choice part of the party was very dominant.
I know, the narrative is that they never you know,
Republicans were always go ininst abortion. Yes, there were wings
the Republican Party alwaysginst abortion, but as a whole there
were a plethora of pro choicers that dominated the party.
(26:05):
I mean, all you have left now is Lisa Murkowski
and Susan Collins. Really at the Senate anyway, you have
a handful of people in the House, and that's about it.
The progression of the Republican Party to spend decades working
to nominate pro life judges to get Roe v. Waight overturned.
And if your goal, and this is what I always
(26:27):
express to pro lifers who are disappointed, your goal should
be one goal, reduce the number of abortions. Until Roe
was overturned, the number of abortions nationwide was significantly declining,
and then it spiked up. So the goal should not be, Hey,
(26:49):
let's pass an abortion man everywhere. We should go back,
you know several stages before Row was overturned, and what
was the pro life movement doing. Let's make sure that
abortion clinics are near hospitals. Let's make sure that there
are more regulations on the abortion industry, make it more
difficult for abortion clinics to operate, and that will put
(27:12):
them out of business. That's what a pro life movement
was doing until Roe was overturned, and then they said no, actually,
forget all these laws. Let's just get it fanned everywhere,
even though it was not politically feasible. Do what's politically
feasible to achieve your goal. Don't ask for a purity tesk.
I'm not yelling at you, but don't ask for a
purity task where you're saying it has to be this way. No,
(27:35):
let's just reduce a number of dead babies, however that
may be, and that may look different in different places,
and that may not be possible in certain places right now.
But where it's possible, do what's possible, and where it
is impossible, look to change it. That is the real
message that I would say. And as far as other
social policies, Yeah, gay marriage is out the door. That's
(27:59):
not the issue, and I think think that that's you know,
that is very clear to everybody. Let's like the gun issue,
do you know in nineteen eighty seven and the year
that I was born, the only state to have constecial
carry was Vermont, Texas was it had so many regulations
on guns. States in the West had so many regulation
(28:20):
regulations on guns it was insane. A majority of states
now have const soecial carry, including half of the states
in New England. So you may say the social the
conservative movement isn't winning anything, hasn't concerned anything. That's it's nonsense.
It's just not true. People have spent decades building this
and doing little things here and there and here and
(28:41):
there that have made tremendous progress. It's not perfect, but
America is safer today than it ever has been. America's
got more pro life bills, you know, in law since
the nineteen seventies. There are more rights to own guns
than ever before. I think, going back like the Revolution,
(29:02):
there are men's schemes that even social conservatives have made.
Where they have failed is that not everybody has then
carried out in their own personal lives which the government
can't control. And you shouldn't ask it to. You should
do the most for what you can of what you have. Okay,
more asked me. Anything is coming up next. Okay, it's
(29:22):
time for more Ask me anything. This question comes from Kelly.
She says, Hey, Ryan, love your show. I like to
hear your thoughts about the Illinois goubernatorial election. I'm a
lifelong Illinois resident who despises Pritzker and he has done
to our state, particularly during COVID. Darren Bailey seems to
be the front runner for the Republican nomination, but he
already lost to Prisker once person. I like Ted Dabrowski,
(29:44):
I mean fellow Polock Hello, but I'm not sure he
has enough support. We'd love to hear your thoughts on
the candidate, if they have a shop being Pritzker. Yeah, Prisker,
I mean, listen, prince who's got a gazillion dollars. He's
rich as anything. There's no way to kind of circle that,
and he's the incumbent. It's just going to be very difficult.
(30:04):
I'm looking if there's any polls right now. I've seen them,
but I haven't seen Republicans really make any inroads anywhere enough.
You know the problem is is that so Illinois, even
worse than New York, is so dominated by such a
heavy population concentration. In one specific area. And whenever a
(30:29):
state has that, you really have a difficulty where that
state calls all the shots. Chicago just calls all the
shots Chicago and the strong suburbs, and a lot of
the suburbs are just woke, lefty places. I mean, that's
just the truth of it. So Republicans can to make
and Democrats have done a tremendous job at jerrymandering. Tremendous,
(30:50):
I mean, one of the most talented gerrymandering I think
in the entire country, both in Congress and in the
state legislature. They did it hook line and sinker to
make sure voters have no say in anything. They just did.
Democrats were I mean, listen, hats off to Democrats. You
did it. You made sure you disenfranchise every voter in Illinois,
(31:11):
and you did it right. So so far in so
I'm looking at the polls right now, so far Bailey
has a significantly but it's not, you know, overwhelming, And
in the general election right now, Pritsker has a twenty
point lead. I just think that Illinois is in a
rough shape. I mean it's it's it's just in rough
shape right now. I don't know how else to say. It.
(31:33):
I mean, I know New York is, I know a
lot of other places are, but Illinois and probably of
all the big blue states, Illinois is probably in the
worst shape that there is. I think it's even a
worship in California. Okay. Next question comes from John. I
know that wasn't by the way, Kelly, that wasn't an
uplifting thing. I know, I know I usually give a
positive thing, but it's it's not great in Illinois. I
(31:55):
if there is a if there is a strong candidate
who's gonna run, they're gonna run, wait and Scres no
longer the nominee and have a vacant seat in a
better year. Maybe that's the ray of hope. Especially comes
from John John High Ryan. Are there any state propositions
to amend this constitutions to require voter ID in state
and federal elections? How hard is it to get a
(32:16):
proposition on the ballot? What does it cost an az
We had a proposition three on nine, but it lost
by eighteen thy us in twenty twenty two. Help me
understand the results versus suppose that eighty percent broad support
for voter ID the media claims, is it really has
brought support. It seems a voter id shit of the
advances advanced by the right, like abortion and was ensconced
(32:37):
in the state constitution by the left. Okay, thank you.
That's a really great question. So it depends on the state.
State by state, there is a multitude of different ways
to get a ballot proposition. Some states don't even have
ballid propositions, but is It is a multitude of different
states that have a different regulation. So it's impossible for
(32:57):
me to say, can you get it here or can
you get it there? I don't know. As far as
propositions to get put id on the ballot, I have
not seen any as of yet. They should have already
been they should have already been processed. We would already
seen them. Usually there's a signatory like you need signatures
and money and time. It's I would say it's less
(33:20):
money than it is just you need a ton of
volunteers and someone with a little political knowledge of dates
and deadlines and requirements as far as that goes. And
when you file anything that comes with signatures, you always
need to get more because people claim a signature is
beat or it's not the right person or not the
(33:40):
right signature. And they always find with signatures. So if
they requires ten thousand signatures, you need thirty thousand signatures.
That kind of thing. As far as the proposition goes for,
I had not heard of this one before you send
me the email. As for proposition three or nine in Arizona,
I was unaware of it before you had met. Yeah,
there was a proposition to require The exact quote was
(34:06):
The exact phrase was, it would require voter ID on
mail in ballots, so it says a vote free. Yes.
Was making multiple changes to Arizona voter identification of mail
in ballot policies, including a required dates of birth and
voter ID number for mail in ballots and eliminating the
existing two document alternative to voter ID or in person voting.
(34:27):
It lost fifty point they voter said no, fifty point
three eight to forty nine point six y two, very
very very close. It was yeah, eighteen thousand, five hundred votes.
So I'm looking up this this this case, and all
I can come down to as to why I think
this is right after the you know, Arizona claim that
(34:49):
the election was stolen, which you can or cannot believe.
I'm not going to relitigate it. But it left a
lot of people in Arizona with very, very sour grapes.
And I think the carry a Lake running the campaign
at Cheheran as Cheeran. It made the issue the issue
with her and voters did not like her, and I
(35:12):
think that it really affected kind of everybody and Democrats
at the surge that a year. So all I can
sit there and tell you is that Democrats of the
surge of the year and they were voting against anything
that reminded them of the electron was stolen. I don't know,
because usually those malad measures when they brought up for
a vote, actually passed, So I don't know. Try it again.
I think if they brought up again, it probably would pass. Arizona,
by the way, was a state that did not recommend
(35:33):
I recognized Martin Luther king Day and has brought for
a vote and they voted it down and they voted
for it. So bring up for a vote again, Okay.
Next question comes from Shnapiro writes, Hey, Ryan, hope you're
getting through lent without many breaks to your sacrifices. I
have broken it twice, Jnapiro. I gave up secular music
for Lent, and I listened to music all day long,
(35:55):
every day, so it's actually been a sacrifice. And I
tell you the problem is Christian rock is genuinely awful.
I mean, there's like a few people or do a
decent job, but it's genuinely some of the worst music
I've ever heard. There's a guy who sings a song
called counting My Blessings. He's good. There's literally there's like
a handful. There's maybe like five people who do a
(36:16):
decent job. No one is like an amazing job. And
I like a lot of gospel music, but you can
only listen to it so many times. Like it's been very,
very rough this lent. I thought that it was going
to be much easier. It is not. What does the
data show without the value of phone banking for campaigns
not in polling. I worked on a congressional campaign a
(36:37):
few years ago, and after two thousand phone calls, I
had fewer than ten conversations more than five minutes, longer
than the vast majority of people who didn't pick up,
hang up, amediately or already have their mindset up on
the issues. Putting aside the advice of professional campaign consultants
who charge exorbitant fees even in unwinterable races. Is there
any real value to phone banking in my opinion, this
(37:01):
is not what every consultant will tell you. In my opinion,
not anymore. There once was. That's absolutely true. Once upon
a time a phone banking made a big difference. And also,
if you have volunteers that have nothing to do, you
might as well have them phone bank. You gotta do something. Right.
If you have a bunch of older women there and
they want to do something to help you and they
(37:23):
can't door knock, well, then yes, then go go make
phone calls if you have that time. It can't be
your whole entire campaign. And I would say the way
you do it properly is you call people. If I
was in term of a phone bank, what I would
do is this, organize the list of voters sixty and
(37:46):
older and sixteen younger. And during the day you call
people sixteen older, more likely retired, more like to be home,
more like the answer the phone call. During the day,
they're out shopping, they have times so that they're in talk
for a little bit, or they're not working the point
they're not working. And then at in the PM hours,
I would get foreign language foreign language speakers or bilingual
(38:09):
speakers and have them on the phone with people of
the same surname that they speak the language for. I
would not call the average show in in the evening
no answers to the phone because of that, That's what
I would do. So, yes, can it be used effectively? Yes?
Is it often use effectively? No? And it's really the
only way you want to use it is if you
(38:31):
have volunteers, specifically senior citizens who can't really walk, they
can't go sign waving, they have to sit for a
long periods of time. But they have the time they
should be out doing the phone calling for free. Consultant
shall not pay enormous amounts, so fees for it. You
can get burner phones, you can get call systems that
dial automatically, whatever the case is. But that's my best
(38:51):
advice for phone banking. I would not if I was
I was actually just doing a school board election and
they asked I wanted to pay for phone banking, and
I said no. Okay. Last question comes from Sam. Sam says, Hey, Ryan,
big fan and longtime listener, you held up your own
against my client Michael Tracy the SOHO for him. That
was such a great form. I really enjoyed that, and
(39:12):
Michael was a really, really nice guy. It was not
the person I met him, but he was a really
pleasant person to talk to. His mom was there, and
if my memory servesly correct, I actually beat him in
that form in the debate, but he was very, very nice.
I really don't like not that most of my I
know Michael Tracy is, but he's a left wing blogger
and writer and reporter, and he's made a big story
(39:36):
about how he thinks a lot of the people who
claimed to be abused by Epstein their allegations would not
stand up in court, and it's very thought provoking. I
don't know if I agree with it. I'm not like
an expert of the Epstein stuff, but I find it
intriguing and worth listening to. And the way people have
treated him, and they've said, you know, he's being paid off,
he's working for Mossad, whatever the case they've said, is
(40:00):
really kind of gross. I just think he's a deeply
intellectual and thoughtful person and he's asking important questions. So
where are those questions lead? I'm not exactly sure, but
I don't think that he's doing a bad thing by
asking them. Okay, you said last week someone had a
question about opposition to Virginia democrats redistricting effort. I'm sure
you know this already, but just in case, Eric Hendrick,
Jason Mirras and a few others from a group in
(40:21):
opposition to the new maps despite the GP leadership, is
a bipartisan effort. And the first tbads are airing tomorrow. Okay, awesome,
so they're already airing. Here is the link. It's called
vafairmaps dot com. Please feel free to shed the spread
the word vafairmaps dot com. Thank you so much. Sam.
(40:41):
That is so great. I definitely well, I did already,
but I'll share, I'll tweet it. I think that that's
really really important, and I think that I think politicians
should not pick their voters votership their politicians. It gets
me knowing when both parties do it. But now it's
the Angel place where it's going to be like really
insane as as time starts picking up and there's kind
of the trains lot the station. I'm not in charge.
(41:02):
I'll just report the facts to you guys. It's quote friendly,
but It's my great lot in life is that I
am always a godfather and never a god so I
don't get to make any decisions on anything. No one
listen to me anyway. All right, guys, that's this episode.
I hope you enjoyed it. I hope you like this podcast.
If you do, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts, or on YouTube.
(41:23):
Give me a thumbs up and press subscribe. I appreciate you.
And if you're feeling really generous this weekend, a five
star review goes fast. We can see the podcast. I
will talk to you guys on Monday
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