Tom Bevan, co-founder and president of RealClearPolitics, joins Karol Markowicz to discuss the evolution of political media, the birth of RealClearPolitics, and how polling averages changed election coverage forever. Tom breaks down why poll skepticism has grown, what the media still gets wrong about Trump voters, and how RealClearPolitics built one of the most trusted political data platforms in America.
They also dive into the future of legacy media, whether institutions like The Washington Post can survive the next five years, the role of faith in modern life, raising a family in today’s culture, and Tom’s bold prediction about American journalism. A must-listen conversation on politics, polling, media trust, family, and faith.
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Hi, and welcome back to the Carol Markwood Show on iHeartRadio.
My guest today is Tom Bevit. Tom is the co
founder and president of Real Clear Politics.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Hi. Tom, so nice to have you on, Carol.
Speaker 3 (00:18):
Is so great to be with you, Tom.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
I am a huge fan of Real Clearer.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
I want to know how you got there, what made
you start it?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Tell us everything.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
Well, so I'll give you this short version since we
only have twenty minutes.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Twenty two Okay.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
So the interesting thing about Roalklar Politics is that the
co founder, John McIntyre and myself, we were not involved
in politics or journalism professionally. He was a trader and
I was in advertising. But we were just political junkies.
We just love the stuff and we would watch the
Sunday shows and we would listen to talk radio and
read the outpbed pages and talk about them. And so
(00:56):
in the late nineties mid to late nineties was really
the first time where you could read what was being
written in the New York Times and the La Times
on the same day.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
That was kind of our aha moment.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
We're like, Okay, why don't we create a place for
people like us who are junkies about this stuff and
just bring all this information become sort of a political clearinghouse.
And that's how we started what we called it sort
of intelligent aggregation model, right which back in the day,
like the first iterations of Real Clear Politics, we were
posting like five stories. I mean, it was really you know,
like this is like a wheel, yeah, and this is
(01:31):
before like the blog is sphere, I mean, all this stuff.
And then we created the Real clar Politics poll average.
That was the other thing that really put us on
the map, and that's what turned us into took it
from basically being like a hobby into a business, because
we were both still working at our day jobs and
then we were moonlighting at night and in the morning
trying to keep the site updated, and we were really,
(01:51):
you know, just on a shoe string. And then in
the leading up to the four election, so a couple
things happened. Number one, there was a two thousand election,
which the day aftermath of that, people were just dying
for information about the vote counts and.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
All that stuff.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
And we were we were aggregating all this stuff from
all these papers across Florida. We were aggregating transcripts of
court proceedings and all these things, and so that was
a huge boost to traffic. September two thousand and one
attack on the World Trade Center, that was another you know,
moment in time where people were just desperate to find
out learn more about what had happened and why it happened,
(02:29):
and who are these who are these people who wanted
to kill us? Yeah, and so and then the four
election when we had the poll averages and we started
getting on TV and talking about them, and the idea
for the poll average. You know, there are plenty of
people who average polls now, but we were the ones
who invented it and created it. And the idea was
really you know, as I mentioned, John was a trader,
and it was it was kind of like, you know, look,
(02:51):
individual stocks go up and down during the day, but
at the end of the day, people always want to
know what did the Dow do?
Speaker 3 (02:55):
Where did the Dow go? The same thing.
Speaker 4 (02:57):
You'd get a poll that would show, you know, Hillary
clintonley ip numbers, Hillary Clinton leading by two and Donald
Trump leading by four.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Well, which one's right? Well, the truth is somewhere in between.
Speaker 4 (03:06):
And if you take those polls and you average them,
you aggregate that data. The theory was and is that
you will get a better, more accurate reading of where
a race is at any moment in time and also
how that race is trending over time.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
And so that was the you know.
Speaker 4 (03:21):
That was the idea for the RCP average, and obviously
that took off and that made us into a little
company that we've been.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Now last year was our twenty fifth year of.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
Operation, and so I know, I know, I've been doing
this for a long time now, which is crazy.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
So are you surprised when people get angry at the
poll averages that they're like angry at RCP because you know,
the poll averages didn't didn't tell them what they thought
they should be telling them.
Speaker 4 (03:48):
I get the skepticism of polls. There have been some
some misses. I mean, you have to be honest about
this stuff. The national polls have actually been pretty good,
but in some states, and you look at places like
Wisconsin and twenties sixteen and some others.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
I mean, the.
Speaker 4 (04:02):
Biggest, one of the biggest misses was in New Hampshire
in two thousand and in the primary in the two
thousand and eight race when Barack Obama won Iowa and
went in there with a big lead, and all the
polls had him leading. And if you remember, you know,
Hillary went and did this, She did a town hall
(04:24):
and someone held up a sign and said, like iron
my shirt, and she got all choked up, and you know,
women came out and like voted for and so so
we've had moments like that in time where the polls
have been you know, it was exacerbated by Donald Trump
because he caused a change in the elector the polsters
just simply.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
Weren't couldn't capture, couldn't capture.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
And it was mostly sort of less non college educated
white voters and rural voters in places like Wisconsin and
some of these other battleground states who had voted for
Obama once or maybe twice and just decided, you know,
that's it. Or the people who who quite frankly hadn't
voted before and werenovated by Trump to come back into
the process.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
So I get it. But at the same time, polls
aren't going away.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
They are the best measure or metric that we have,
as flawed as they have been in some circumstances.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
And so.
Speaker 4 (05:16):
You know, I always tell people, listen, you have to
That's one of the reasons that you know, you look
at an average, which which takes into account. You know,
the polls that you may think are are completely you know,
liberal and misreading the electorate versus the polls that you know.
Some folks will say, well, they're right leaning polls. Well,
the right leaning polls were more accurate than the other
(05:36):
polls in twenty sixteen, twenty twenty, and twenty four. Yeah,
but they weren't as accurate in twenty eighteen and twenty
twenty two and those midterm years where that those Trump
voters didn't turn out as much.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
So look, it all comes out in the loss. But
I get it.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
Yeah, it's funny that you say, like, you you know,
the liberal polls, you don't believe them. I the way
I remember conservatives is like you totally believe the liberal polls.
You thought you were going to lose everything all the time,
and that's how you went into the elections and won
because you believe the liberal polls and you tried even harder.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
I mean that that was how I came up.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
Anyway, Well, there absolutely has been this sort of bifurcation
of the polling sort of class right where you have
there are now a number of Republican polsters, Republican leaning
posters to Fouger and Rasmussen, insider advantage and the like
that are. And the narrative, you know, which came out
(06:32):
of the twenty eight, twenty twenty two and then again
in twenty twenty four, was that these were all Republican
leaning polls and they're polluting all the averages and this manipulation,
manipulation of the of the poll averages. We were attacked
by the New York Times five days before the election.
This is four this is twenty four, oh twenty four
and basically saying like, oh, Rookler Politics is painting this
(06:53):
picture of the electorate that is complete fantasy that Donald
Trump was gonna win all seven swing states. Wow, well
that's actually reality because that's what happened. So it's been
an interesting time. The other the other complaint that we
hear all the time, and I get this, but at
the same people say, oh, I'm seventy five years old,
I've never been pulled once, right, I have, But I
(07:17):
mean I get it when people say like they're just
making up numbers. There have been instances of people who
are just you know, kind of grifters and they they
show up out of nowhere, you know, and start pulling
some of these battleground states and and they in some
cases they are making up numbers and they you know,
we've had examples of that in the past. But that's
one of the reasons that you know, we don't include
(07:38):
any campaign polls in our averages.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
We don't include any pack polls.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
And if we do put something in our average, uh,
we usually you know, vet them pretty carefully and talk
to the posters and try and figure out.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
Okay, what are you doing and how are you doing it,
what's your track record? What else have you done?
Speaker 4 (07:53):
Because it is uh, you know, we don't want people
trying to manipulate the average.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
It just such a mystery to me why anybody would
try to skew the polls. I feel like it only
would would depress your own base, Like they would be like, oh,
we're winning by so much, I can go like hang
out with my friends instead of this.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
Why would you do that? It makes no sense.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
I mean, yeah, look, and for most of these folks,
you know, it's a business, and for us it's a
bit like we want to be as.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Accurate as to be accurate, right if.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
We're not accurate, people aren't gonna take us seriously and
so and the other thing about you know, our competitors is,
you know, people in Nate Silver and some of these
other folks have tried to sort of build a better
mouse trap by you know, creating a black box where
they're waiting poles based on you know who the polster
is and you know how big their sample is, and
all of these different things, adding little secret sauce and
(08:44):
putting their thumbs on.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
We just do a simple average. I mean, the numbers
are right there.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
It's like literally as basic as and transparent as you
can get. And you know, if you put our track
record up against anybody, you know, we've been as accurate
or more accurate than anybody else out there over the
last twenty five years.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
So what would you be doing if you weren't at RCP.
Speaker 4 (09:03):
That's a great question. I've often thought about that. You know,
I did have a life prior to this. I was
in advertising. I graduated with a degree in American history
from Princeton University, which once said, what are you gonna do?
You're gonna be a teacher? And I'm like advertising though,
but I was in you know, I was involved in
advertising and marketing for a while.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
I don't know that i'd want to go back to
that world.
Speaker 4 (09:26):
Often I've talked to my wife and like, what, you know,
what would I do if I was not doing this?
And at this point, I just turned fifty seven and
I've been over for twenty five years, And I said,
I said to my wife, I'm like, I'm really not qualified.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
To do anything. If I went on trying to get a.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
Job or anything else, We're gonna be like, uh, you.
Speaker 3 (09:42):
Know what I did.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
But I have done though over the past my kids
are grown grown. I still have a freshman in high school,
a sophomore in high school, and a senior in high school.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
And then I've got two older ones. So I've got
five kids.
Speaker 4 (09:55):
And what I have done over the past, you know,
twenty five years, is coach them in their athletics. Most
recently I played football in college, and most recently I
was coaching my son's tackle football team the Catholic League
here in the North Shore of Chicago.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
And love it so much fun, So I think it
would have been like a high school football coach.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
That's actually really cool.
Speaker 3 (10:18):
Happy as a Yeah, I love that.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
I feel like I have to look it up, but
somebody else recently told me their plan B might have
been a high school coach.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
Absolutely, it's the best. I mean, it really is.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
It's funny because when I see the dads that are
coaching on a Saturday or Sunday morning, I'm like, those
are such heroes, Like you could not pay me enough to.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Deal with other people's kids and coaches.
Speaker 5 (10:40):
I hear you, and I to know from the car
where I'm waiting for my football playing son to come back,
I respect the hell out of all of you, but
I could never.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
Yeah, I mean, first of all, we sometimes the kids
are jerks.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
Like my middle son he had like he had a
team where the coach quit in the middle the kids.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
You know, A I think most dads they do it
because they love it and obviously they love their kids,
but they they love the other kids too.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
I mean it really.
Speaker 4 (11:10):
And then the other thing is if you've if you've
grown up playing sports, you at least for me, you know,
you recognize how important these coaches are, not only in
the sport themselves. I mean if you get if you
get a kid who gets on a team with a
bad coach and has a bad experience, they may quit
the sport altogether.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
Yeah, so it could totally change the trajectory.
Speaker 4 (11:29):
But even more so like in their sort of in
their their formation and their maturation, and a good coach
can teach them the stuff that you can't get in
the classroom and stuff. But you know, leadership and discipline
and adversity and person appearance and all that stuff. It
adds a lot of that, And so that's that's one
of the other aspects that I love about it is like,
(11:50):
you know, molding young men.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
Yeah, it's amazing.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
Yeah, We're going to take a quick break and be
right back on the Carol Marcowitch Show.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Tom, what are you most proud of in your life?
Speaker 4 (12:04):
Most proud of our family?
Speaker 3 (12:08):
You know, like I said, I got five kids, great answer.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Yeah, Well I just I.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Actually just said this to my wife yesterday because we're
going through this phase now where you know, two kids
are out of the house and we got we're sending
another one off to college next year, so then it
will just be us and our two youngest and a
couple of years beyond that they're going to be gone.
And we were like, what are we going to do?
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Like, what are you going to do.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
What are we going to do with all this time?
Do we want to move? If we did, where we
move all that?
Speaker 4 (12:34):
Yeah, And there's a lot of anxiety around that, and like,
my god, we haven't just been the two of us
a long time. And and but I turned to my
wife and I said, you know, but like this was
the great You know, we've we've built a great family
and it's the most important thing that we will ever do.
And I don't think you know, until you have kids,
(12:55):
you don't realize that it's the most important job you'll
ever have and the most important thing you'll ever do
in your life, no matter how much money you.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Make or how much fame you achieve or any of that.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
At the end of the day, it's just like, did
you raise kids who are happy and healthy and productive
and respectful?
Speaker 3 (13:14):
And you know, I like to think that we've been
able to do that. Knock on wood, yeahs to go.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Yeah, you let me know how it turns out.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
My oldest is a sophomore in high school, and then
I have a thirteen and a ten year old.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
So you're in the thing.
Speaker 4 (13:27):
Well the other thing too, So Carl Cannon, And this
is one of the funny jokes at Realklar Politicas.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
I've got five kids.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
John McIntyre, the co founder, has four, Carl kinn has three.
So between us, we know the leadership at Realklar Politics,
We've got like, you know.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
A dozen kids, and Carl's kids are a little bit older.
Speaker 4 (13:44):
But you know it, it doesn't end at eighteen, like
they leave the house and then it is a fifty
sixty year You know, they will always be your kids
and you will always try to help them whenever you
can and be there for them.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
So it's it's easy to forget that because at Thanksgiving
this last year, I looked at my you know, then
fifteen year old daughter and I said, oh, you know,
we only have you for like three more Thanksgivings, And
she was like, where am I spending Thanksgiving?
Speaker 2 (14:13):
I'm going to be home for Thanksgiving. I just forgot
that that's the case.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
You know, when I was.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
When Mitt Romney was running against Barack Obama in twenty twelve,
I interviewed him.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
At his headquarters in Boston, and.
Speaker 4 (14:28):
You know, one of the things that I respected most
about Mitt Romney was his family.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
And yeah, such a nice family.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Such a nice family.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
But he had said like they had it was mandatory
for the kids to come back for like holidays, and
they did like a family vacation every year.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
They had a multimillion dollar late right.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
I feel like that's easier to do, they.
Speaker 2 (14:50):
Vacation every year.
Speaker 4 (14:52):
But the premise, you know, was was I thought really laudable,
you know, as a family, just like we've talked about
that where we just once a year, we're gonna be like, hey,
we'd love for the kids to be able to come
back every holiday, but b would just be like there
is there's one week a year where you set it
aside and no matter what you're doing or whatever, you
(15:14):
you know, end up doing your.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
Life like this is for just I love that.
Speaker 2 (15:18):
I'm going to totally make that happen.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
I'm going to write that down, give us a five
year out prediction, and it could be about anything at all.
Speaker 3 (15:26):
Five years from now. Oh wow, that is a that
is a good question.
Speaker 4 (15:32):
I mean, I know this is going to look forever online. Well,
I could do something lame like, say five years from that,
Jade Vance will be president, which is very much a possibility, definitely,
But I think I'm going to say something a little
more dramatic than that, because you know, part of what
we've done is we've been we've well, we've been part of,
(15:57):
you know, this evolution of the media landscape over the
last twenty five years and watched these huge behemoth companies
that and Carl came from this world.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
You know, he used to work for night Ritter, for
like the San Jose Mercury.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
News, and they had like a you know, they had
they were making they were printing money, I mean literally
printing money. And he had these expense accounts and they had,
you know, twelve regional reports.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
That whole era really is very sad for me.
Speaker 4 (16:20):
He talks about the fact like they had reporters assigned
to like each member of Congress or something, and now
they're they don't even have anybody covering these guys.
Speaker 3 (16:29):
I think I think we'll see a company like and
it might be The Washington Post go out of.
Speaker 4 (16:36):
Business wow five years if they can't figure out how
to turn it around, or they will have to do
what just happened to the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, which is
to be you know, some taken over by like a
nonprofit foundation. Jeff Bezos is not going to just fifty
or one hundred million dollars a year to fund that
operation into the future. And if they can't figure out
(16:59):
how to you make some money. And and they've been
caught on this vice right where they print, you know,
they they hire someone who's like, I don't know, center
center right, and suddenly they lose like a million.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
Subscribers because people freak you out. Yeah, so they're in
a tough spot and it's a tough business. And like
I said, you know, it's nice.
Speaker 4 (17:20):
To have a billionaire who's willing to just keep his
check book open, but that that kind of thing is
it's gonna last ever.
Speaker 3 (17:25):
So yeah, that will be my my super super hot
take prediction Washington Post.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
You know, I could absolutely see that coming true. You know,
we're recording this as Hampshire College just announced their closing.
I think a lot of like institutions that we kind
of maybe think are there forever on. Hampshire obviously is
nowhere near Washington Post. But it's it's interesting because I
think these things will close and disappear and you know,
(17:51):
vaguely be remembered.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
I mean, to me, that would be a watershed moment.
Speaker 4 (17:57):
And you've seen it happen to like regional paper and
they you know, but to have something like the an
institution like the Washington Post, that would be that would
be something.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
It would Tom. I've loved this conversation. I've loved getting
to know you a little bit.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Better leave us here with your best tip for my
listeners on how they can improve their lives.
Speaker 4 (18:17):
The best tip for how listeners can improve their lives,
I would say, and I'm gonna I'm going to go
through some personal experience that if they haven't and maybe
they have. So I just became Catholic, wow, ten days ago. Yeah,
it's confirmed in the Catholic Church. And actually my kids
(18:39):
who have led the way, which is interesting because after
they were in public school until COVID hit, and after COVID,
we put them in our youngest into a Catholic school
and just because I mean it was personations, and we
fell in love with.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
This little parish down the street.
Speaker 4 (18:56):
Started going to Mass with the kids, and they got confirmed,
and then my wife and I got confirmed this year.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
And I'm amazing.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
And they were kind of older already, right.
Speaker 4 (19:05):
They were at that point, they were well, they weren't
small as they were seventh and eighth grade, and then
my when he got confirmed. My current senior was like
a sophomore in high school and my oldest was like
eighteen or twenty.
Speaker 3 (19:18):
Yeah, So but I would.
Speaker 4 (19:21):
Say to improve your daily lives.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
I'm very much into now.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
I think social media is there have been some benefits,
but I think it's clear now that it massively the
downsides massively outweigh that.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
And so and I think we have.
Speaker 4 (19:40):
As a society, we've tried to find joy and entertainment
and spirituality in all of these other things, including politics,
by the way, which in some ways has replaced religion.
And so, so what I'm trying to do and what
I what I I find contentment in is get yourself
(20:04):
on a faith journey. Doesn't have to be Christian, can
be whatever, but could be just you know, doing meditation
or whatever. But try and try, and your days will
be better, your mind will be clearer, you will have
I think, more joy and fulfillment if you can just
quiet your mind and focus on being sort of here
(20:26):
and now, but also your sort of spiritual being.
Speaker 3 (20:28):
Because I think we are as a as a society,
have gone.
Speaker 4 (20:32):
And I think we're seeing people go back to that
and We see all the stories about gen zs now
package churches and they're doing say people are returning to that,
and I think if you're not already doing that, that
would be my tip. I've found it to be. Really
it's been. It's it's been a good thing for me,
and I think I think it would be a good
thing for everyone if they can just find that time,
(20:54):
carve out some space for yourself every single day.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
I love that so much. He is Tom Bevan. Check
him out Deal Clear Politics. Thank you so much, Tom
for coming on.
Speaker 3 (21:02):
Thanks Charle appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
M
Hi, and welcome back to the Carol Markwood Show on iHeartRadio.
My guest today is Tom Bevit. Tom is the co
founder and president of Real Clear Politics.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Hi. Tom, so nice to have you on, Carol.
Speaker 3 (00:18):
Is so great to be with you, Tom.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
I am a huge fan of Real Clearer.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
I want to know how you got there, what made
you start it?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Tell us everything.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
Well, so I'll give you this short version since we
only have twenty minutes.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Twenty two Okay.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
So the interesting thing about Roalklar Politics is that the
co founder, John McIntyre and myself, we were not involved
in politics or journalism professionally. He was a trader and
I was in advertising. But we were just political junkies.
We just love the stuff and we would watch the
Sunday shows and we would listen to talk radio and
read the outpbed pages and talk about them. And so
(00:56):
in the late nineties mid to late nineties was really
the first time where you could read what was being
written in the New York Times and the La Times
on the same day.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
That was kind of our aha moment.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
We're like, Okay, why don't we create a place for
people like us who are junkies about this stuff and
just bring all this information become sort of a political clearinghouse.
And that's how we started what we called it sort
of intelligent aggregation model, right which back in the day,
like the first iterations of Real Clear Politics, we were
posting like five stories. I mean, it was really you know,
like this is like a wheel, yeah, and this is
(01:31):
before like the blog is sphere, I mean, all this stuff.
And then we created the Real clar Politics poll average.
That was the other thing that really put us on
the map, and that's what turned us into took it
from basically being like a hobby into a business, because
we were both still working at our day jobs and
then we were moonlighting at night and in the morning
trying to keep the site updated, and we were really,
(01:51):
you know, just on a shoe string. And then in
the leading up to the four election, so a couple
things happened. Number one, there was a two thousand election,
which the day aftermath of that, people were just dying
for information about the vote counts and.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
All that stuff.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
And we were we were aggregating all this stuff from
all these papers across Florida. We were aggregating transcripts of
court proceedings and all these things, and so that was
a huge boost to traffic. September two thousand and one
attack on the World Trade Center, that was another you know,
moment in time where people were just desperate to find
out learn more about what had happened and why it happened,
(02:29):
and who are these who are these people who wanted
to kill us? Yeah, and so and then the four
election when we had the poll averages and we started
getting on TV and talking about them, and the idea
for the poll average. You know, there are plenty of
people who average polls now, but we were the ones
who invented it and created it. And the idea was
really you know, as I mentioned, John was a trader,
and it was it was kind of like, you know, look,
(02:51):
individual stocks go up and down during the day, but
at the end of the day, people always want to
know what did the Dow do?
Speaker 3 (02:55):
Where did the Dow go? The same thing.
Speaker 4 (02:57):
You'd get a poll that would show, you know, Hillary
clintonley ip numbers, Hillary Clinton leading by two and Donald
Trump leading by four.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Well, which one's right? Well, the truth is somewhere in between.
Speaker 4 (03:06):
And if you take those polls and you average them,
you aggregate that data. The theory was and is that
you will get a better, more accurate reading of where
a race is at any moment in time and also
how that race is trending over time.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
And so that was the you know.
Speaker 4 (03:21):
That was the idea for the RCP average, and obviously
that took off and that made us into a little
company that we've been.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Now last year was our twenty fifth year of.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
Operation, and so I know, I know, I've been doing
this for a long time now, which is crazy.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
So are you surprised when people get angry at the
poll averages that they're like angry at RCP because you know,
the poll averages didn't didn't tell them what they thought
they should be telling them.
Speaker 4 (03:48):
I get the skepticism of polls. There have been some
some misses. I mean, you have to be honest about
this stuff. The national polls have actually been pretty good,
but in some states, and you look at places like
Wisconsin and twenties sixteen and some others.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
I mean, the.
Speaker 4 (04:02):
Biggest, one of the biggest misses was in New Hampshire
in two thousand and in the primary in the two
thousand and eight race when Barack Obama won Iowa and
went in there with a big lead, and all the
polls had him leading. And if you remember, you know,
Hillary went and did this, She did a town hall
(04:24):
and someone held up a sign and said, like iron
my shirt, and she got all choked up, and you know,
women came out and like voted for and so so
we've had moments like that in time where the polls
have been you know, it was exacerbated by Donald Trump
because he caused a change in the elector the polsters
just simply.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
Weren't couldn't capture, couldn't capture.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
And it was mostly sort of less non college educated
white voters and rural voters in places like Wisconsin and
some of these other battleground states who had voted for
Obama once or maybe twice and just decided, you know,
that's it. Or the people who who quite frankly hadn't
voted before and werenovated by Trump to come back into
the process.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
So I get it. But at the same time, polls
aren't going away.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
They are the best measure or metric that we have,
as flawed as they have been in some circumstances.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
And so.
Speaker 4 (05:16):
You know, I always tell people, listen, you have to
That's one of the reasons that you know, you look
at an average, which which takes into account. You know,
the polls that you may think are are completely you know,
liberal and misreading the electorate versus the polls that you know.
Some folks will say, well, they're right leaning polls. Well,
the right leaning polls were more accurate than the other
(05:36):
polls in twenty sixteen, twenty twenty, and twenty four. Yeah,
but they weren't as accurate in twenty eighteen and twenty
twenty two and those midterm years where that those Trump
voters didn't turn out as much.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
So look, it all comes out in the loss. But
I get it.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
Yeah, it's funny that you say, like, you you know,
the liberal polls, you don't believe them. I the way
I remember conservatives is like you totally believe the liberal polls.
You thought you were going to lose everything all the time,
and that's how you went into the elections and won
because you believe the liberal polls and you tried even harder.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
I mean that that was how I came up.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
Anyway, Well, there absolutely has been this sort of bifurcation
of the polling sort of class right where you have
there are now a number of Republican polsters, Republican leaning
posters to Fouger and Rasmussen, insider advantage and the like
that are. And the narrative, you know, which came out
(06:32):
of the twenty eight, twenty twenty two and then again
in twenty twenty four, was that these were all Republican
leaning polls and they're polluting all the averages and this manipulation,
manipulation of the of the poll averages. We were attacked
by the New York Times five days before the election.
This is four this is twenty four, oh twenty four
and basically saying like, oh, Rookler Politics is painting this
(06:53):
picture of the electorate that is complete fantasy that Donald
Trump was gonna win all seven swing states. Wow, well
that's actually reality because that's what happened. So it's been
an interesting time. The other the other complaint that we
hear all the time, and I get this, but at
the same people say, oh, I'm seventy five years old,
I've never been pulled once, right, I have, But I
(07:17):
mean I get it when people say like they're just
making up numbers. There have been instances of people who
are just you know, kind of grifters and they they
show up out of nowhere, you know, and start pulling
some of these battleground states and and they in some
cases they are making up numbers and they you know,
we've had examples of that in the past. But that's
one of the reasons that you know, we don't include
(07:38):
any campaign polls in our averages.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
We don't include any pack polls.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
And if we do put something in our average, uh,
we usually you know, vet them pretty carefully and talk
to the posters and try and figure out.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
Okay, what are you doing and how are you doing it,
what's your track record? What else have you done?
Speaker 4 (07:53):
Because it is uh, you know, we don't want people
trying to manipulate the average.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
It just such a mystery to me why anybody would
try to skew the polls. I feel like it only
would would depress your own base, Like they would be like, oh,
we're winning by so much, I can go like hang
out with my friends instead of this.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
Why would you do that? It makes no sense.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
I mean, yeah, look, and for most of these folks,
you know, it's a business, and for us it's a
bit like we want to be as.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Accurate as to be accurate, right if.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
We're not accurate, people aren't gonna take us seriously and
so and the other thing about you know, our competitors is,
you know, people in Nate Silver and some of these
other folks have tried to sort of build a better
mouse trap by you know, creating a black box where
they're waiting poles based on you know who the polster
is and you know how big their sample is, and
all of these different things, adding little secret sauce and
(08:44):
putting their thumbs on.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
We just do a simple average. I mean, the numbers
are right there.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
It's like literally as basic as and transparent as you
can get. And you know, if you put our track
record up against anybody, you know, we've been as accurate
or more accurate than anybody else out there over the
last twenty five years.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
So what would you be doing if you weren't at RCP.
Speaker 4 (09:03):
That's a great question. I've often thought about that. You know,
I did have a life prior to this. I was
in advertising. I graduated with a degree in American history
from Princeton University, which once said, what are you gonna do?
You're gonna be a teacher? And I'm like advertising though,
but I was in you know, I was involved in
advertising and marketing for a while.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
I don't know that i'd want to go back to
that world.
Speaker 4 (09:26):
Often I've talked to my wife and like, what, you know,
what would I do if I was not doing this?
And at this point, I just turned fifty seven and
I've been over for twenty five years, And I said,
I said to my wife, I'm like, I'm really not qualified.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
To do anything. If I went on trying to get a.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
Job or anything else, We're gonna be like, uh, you.
Speaker 3 (09:42):
Know what I did.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
But I have done though over the past my kids
are grown grown. I still have a freshman in high school,
a sophomore in high school, and a senior in high school.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
And then I've got two older ones. So I've got
five kids.
Speaker 4 (09:55):
And what I have done over the past, you know,
twenty five years, is coach them in their athletics. Most
recently I played football in college, and most recently I
was coaching my son's tackle football team the Catholic League
here in the North Shore of Chicago.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
And love it so much fun, So I think it
would have been like a high school football coach.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
That's actually really cool.
Speaker 3 (10:18):
Happy as a Yeah, I love that.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
I feel like I have to look it up, but
somebody else recently told me their plan B might have
been a high school coach.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
Absolutely, it's the best. I mean, it really is.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
It's funny because when I see the dads that are
coaching on a Saturday or Sunday morning, I'm like, those
are such heroes, Like you could not pay me enough to.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Deal with other people's kids and coaches.
Speaker 5 (10:40):
I hear you, and I to know from the car
where I'm waiting for my football playing son to come back,
I respect the hell out of all of you, but
I could never.
Speaker 3 (10:52):
Yeah, I mean, first of all, we sometimes the kids
are jerks.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
Like my middle son he had like he had a
team where the coach quit in the middle the kids.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
You know, A I think most dads they do it
because they love it and obviously they love their kids,
but they they love the other kids too.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
I mean it really.
Speaker 4 (11:10):
And then the other thing is if you've if you've
grown up playing sports, you at least for me, you know,
you recognize how important these coaches are, not only in
the sport themselves. I mean if you get if you
get a kid who gets on a team with a
bad coach and has a bad experience, they may quit
the sport altogether.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
Yeah, so it could totally change the trajectory.
Speaker 4 (11:29):
But even more so like in their sort of in
their their formation and their maturation, and a good coach
can teach them the stuff that you can't get in
the classroom and stuff. But you know, leadership and discipline
and adversity and person appearance and all that stuff. It
adds a lot of that, And so that's that's one
of the other aspects that I love about it is like,
(11:50):
you know, molding young men.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
Yeah, it's amazing.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
Yeah, We're going to take a quick break and be
right back on the Carol Marcowitch Show.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Tom, what are you most proud of in your life?
Speaker 4 (12:04):
Most proud of our family?
Speaker 3 (12:08):
You know, like I said, I got five kids, great answer.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Yeah, Well I just I.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Actually just said this to my wife yesterday because we're
going through this phase now where you know, two kids
are out of the house and we got we're sending
another one off to college next year, so then it
will just be us and our two youngest and a
couple of years beyond that they're going to be gone.
And we were like, what are we going to do?
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Like, what are you going to do.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
What are we going to do with all this time?
Do we want to move? If we did, where we
move all that?
Speaker 4 (12:34):
Yeah, And there's a lot of anxiety around that, and like,
my god, we haven't just been the two of us
a long time. And and but I turned to my
wife and I said, you know, but like this was
the great You know, we've we've built a great family
and it's the most important thing that we will ever do.
And I don't think you know, until you have kids,
(12:55):
you don't realize that it's the most important job you'll
ever have and the most important thing you'll ever do
in your life, no matter how much money you.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Make or how much fame you achieve or any of that.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
At the end of the day, it's just like, did
you raise kids who are happy and healthy and productive
and respectful?
Speaker 3 (13:14):
And you know, I like to think that we've been
able to do that. Knock on wood, yeahs to go.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Yeah, you let me know how it turns out.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
My oldest is a sophomore in high school, and then
I have a thirteen and a ten year old.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
So you're in the thing.
Speaker 4 (13:27):
Well the other thing too, So Carl Cannon, And this
is one of the funny jokes at Realklar Politicas.
Speaker 3 (13:32):
I've got five kids.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
John McIntyre, the co founder, has four, Carl kinn has three.
So between us, we know the leadership at Realklar Politics,
We've got like, you know.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
A dozen kids, and Carl's kids are a little bit older.
Speaker 4 (13:44):
But you know it, it doesn't end at eighteen, like
they leave the house and then it is a fifty
sixty year You know, they will always be your kids
and you will always try to help them whenever you
can and be there for them.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
So it's it's easy to forget that because at Thanksgiving
this last year, I looked at my you know, then
fifteen year old daughter and I said, oh, you know,
we only have you for like three more Thanksgivings, And
she was like, where am I spending Thanksgiving?
Speaker 2 (14:13):
I'm going to be home for Thanksgiving. I just forgot
that that's the case.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
You know, when I was.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
When Mitt Romney was running against Barack Obama in twenty twelve,
I interviewed him.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
At his headquarters in Boston, and.
Speaker 4 (14:28):
You know, one of the things that I respected most
about Mitt Romney was his family.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
And yeah, such a nice family.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Such a nice family.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
But he had said like they had it was mandatory
for the kids to come back for like holidays, and
they did like a family vacation every year.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
They had a multimillion dollar late right.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
I feel like that's easier to do, they.
Speaker 2 (14:50):
Vacation every year.
Speaker 4 (14:52):
But the premise, you know, was was I thought really laudable,
you know, as a family, just like we've talked about
that where we just once a year, we're gonna be like, hey,
we'd love for the kids to be able to come
back every holiday, but b would just be like there
is there's one week a year where you set it
aside and no matter what you're doing or whatever, you
(15:14):
you know, end up doing your.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
Life like this is for just I love that.
Speaker 2 (15:18):
I'm going to totally make that happen.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
I'm going to write that down, give us a five
year out prediction, and it could be about anything at all.
Speaker 3 (15:26):
Five years from now. Oh wow, that is a that
is a good question.
Speaker 4 (15:32):
I mean, I know this is going to look forever online. Well,
I could do something lame like, say five years from that,
Jade Vance will be president, which is very much a possibility, definitely,
But I think I'm going to say something a little
more dramatic than that, because you know, part of what
we've done is we've been we've well, we've been part of,
(15:57):
you know, this evolution of the media landscape over the
last twenty five years and watched these huge behemoth companies
that and Carl came from this world.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
You know, he used to work for night Ritter, for
like the San Jose Mercury.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
News, and they had like a you know, they had
they were making they were printing money, I mean literally
printing money. And he had these expense accounts and they had,
you know, twelve regional reports.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
That whole era really is very sad for me.
Speaker 4 (16:20):
He talks about the fact like they had reporters assigned
to like each member of Congress or something, and now
they're they don't even have anybody covering these guys.
Speaker 3 (16:29):
I think I think we'll see a company like and
it might be The Washington Post go out of.
Speaker 4 (16:36):
Business wow five years if they can't figure out how
to turn it around, or they will have to do
what just happened to the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, which is
to be you know, some taken over by like a
nonprofit foundation. Jeff Bezos is not going to just fifty
or one hundred million dollars a year to fund that
operation into the future. And if they can't figure out
(16:59):
how to you make some money. And and they've been
caught on this vice right where they print, you know,
they they hire someone who's like, I don't know, center
center right, and suddenly they lose like a million.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
Subscribers because people freak you out. Yeah, so they're in
a tough spot and it's a tough business. And like
I said, you know, it's nice.
Speaker 4 (17:20):
To have a billionaire who's willing to just keep his
check book open, but that that kind of thing is
it's gonna last ever.
Speaker 3 (17:25):
So yeah, that will be my my super super hot
take prediction Washington Post.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
You know, I could absolutely see that coming true. You know,
we're recording this as Hampshire College just announced their closing.
I think a lot of like institutions that we kind
of maybe think are there forever on. Hampshire obviously is
nowhere near Washington Post. But it's it's interesting because I
think these things will close and disappear and you know,
(17:51):
vaguely be remembered.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
I mean, to me, that would be a watershed moment.
Speaker 4 (17:57):
And you've seen it happen to like regional paper and
they you know, but to have something like the an
institution like the Washington Post, that would be that would
be something.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
It would Tom. I've loved this conversation. I've loved getting
to know you a little bit.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Better leave us here with your best tip for my
listeners on how they can improve their lives.
Speaker 4 (18:17):
The best tip for how listeners can improve their lives,
I would say, and I'm gonna I'm going to go
through some personal experience that if they haven't and maybe
they have. So I just became Catholic, wow, ten days ago. Yeah,
it's confirmed in the Catholic Church. And actually my kids
(18:39):
who have led the way, which is interesting because after
they were in public school until COVID hit, and after COVID,
we put them in our youngest into a Catholic school
and just because I mean it was personations, and we
fell in love with.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
This little parish down the street.
Speaker 4 (18:56):
Started going to Mass with the kids, and they got confirmed,
and then my wife and I got confirmed this year.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
And I'm amazing.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
And they were kind of older already, right.
Speaker 4 (19:05):
They were at that point, they were well, they weren't
small as they were seventh and eighth grade, and then
my when he got confirmed. My current senior was like
a sophomore in high school and my oldest was like
eighteen or twenty.
Speaker 3 (19:18):
Yeah, So but I would.
Speaker 4 (19:21):
Say to improve your daily lives.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
I'm very much into now.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
I think social media is there have been some benefits,
but I think it's clear now that it massively the
downsides massively outweigh that.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
And so and I think we have.
Speaker 4 (19:40):
As a society, we've tried to find joy and entertainment
and spirituality in all of these other things, including politics,
by the way, which in some ways has replaced religion.
And so, so what I'm trying to do and what
I what I I find contentment in is get yourself
(20:04):
on a faith journey. Doesn't have to be Christian, can
be whatever, but could be just you know, doing meditation
or whatever. But try and try, and your days will
be better, your mind will be clearer, you will have
I think, more joy and fulfillment if you can just
quiet your mind and focus on being sort of here
(20:26):
and now, but also your sort of spiritual being.
Speaker 3 (20:28):
Because I think we are as a as a society,
have gone.
Speaker 4 (20:32):
And I think we're seeing people go back to that
and We see all the stories about gen zs now
package churches and they're doing say people are returning to that,
and I think if you're not already doing that, that
would be my tip. I've found it to be. Really
it's been. It's it's been a good thing for me,
and I think I think it would be a good
thing for everyone if they can just find that time,
(20:54):
carve out some space for yourself every single day.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
I love that so much. He is Tom Bevan. Check
him out Deal Clear Politics. Thank you so much, Tom
for coming on.
Speaker 3 (21:02):
Thanks Charle appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
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