Are Republicans heading into a midterm “buzzsaw” — or can they defy history?
In this episode, Lisa Boothe sits down with Jessica Anderson to break down the early warning signs shaping the upcoming midterm elections. From shifting voter sentiment to the impact of foreign policy and economic concerns, they dive deep into what could determine control of Congress.
The conversation covers key battleground states, turnout challenges, and whether Republicans can energize low-propensity voters without former President Donald Trump on the ballot. Plus, how issues like the Iran conflict, gas prices, and trust in leadership are influencing independent voters and shaping the political landscape.
They also explore:
- Why midterms historically hurt the party in power—and if 2026 could be different
- The role of voter trust, messaging, and economic perception
- How early voting, mail-in ballots, and data-driven outreach could decide close races
- Key Senate battlegrounds including Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina
- Whether fears of “political chaos” could sway undecided voters
Follow Clay & Buck on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuck
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Truth with Lisa Booth, where we get
to the heart of the issues that matter to you today.
We're talking midterms. The party in charge typically always runs
into some sort of buzz saw in the midterm elections.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
How big is that buzzsaw going to be?
Speaker 1 (00:15):
You can go back to twenty eighteen during President Trump's
first midterm cycle and Democrats picked up forty one seats
in the House.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Is that the kind of landscape that we're in right now?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
We're going to lean on Jessica Anderson, the president of
the Sentinel Action Fund. Her group was pivotal in twenty
twenty four with driving out early voters, low propensity voters,
and a lot of the key Senate races there.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
So we're going to lean on her.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
What does she sing for the upcoming midterm elections? Her
group has done focus groups as well. What are voters
saying a lot of key issues with the war in Iran,
with the economy, with gas prices.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
The list goes on. So what does it all mean?
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Are there troubling early warning signs or is it bengled
over bloom. We're gonna ask Jessica about all of this
and more. Stay tuned for Jessica Anderson, president of the
Sentinel Action Fund.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Well, Jessica, it's great to have you back on the show.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
I'm a little bit worried about our conversation because I'm
sorry to get a little nervous about the mid terms
coming up, just as you know, the party in charge
always kind of runs into a buzzsaw in the midtermal elections.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
The question is how big is the bus all going
to be? How big do you think it will be?
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Well, thanks for having me, and I think it's just
really important to remind everyone it's April election years, so
there's plenty of time. The election is not next week.
And some of the kind of atmospheric and environmental things
that we're seeing show up and polling, we're seeing it
both in private and public polling that might show the
loss of trust on the issues with Republicans. There's plenty
(01:59):
of time to talk about the issues we know voters
care about, remind them of the contrasts with Democrats, and
then show the urgency of turning out in November. So,
you know, I think the conventional Washington DC knowledge is
always that the midterms go bad for the sitting party
in power. But I've said this for a year and
I still think this today. If anyone can defy the odds,
(02:22):
it's going to be President Trump, and he has every
tool at his disposal. I think to do that to
flip conventional wisdom on its side. But I think for
him to do that, we've got to get Republicans. And
I put wee in the collective here. My organization sent
an action fund. We have to do the hard work
right now about talking about the good things that are happening.
(02:45):
And what we've seen from President Trump of him being
a fighter and being a fighter is exactly what shows
up in every poll, every focus group after the twenty
twenty four you know, after Action reports, everything is is
Washington going to fight? Are they going to fight at
the border with crime, with our foreign adversaries, with the economy,
(03:07):
and so if we can if we can message properly
like that, couple it with reminding people the fear of
the Democratic agenda and what the flip side of this
is chaos with impeachment, open borders, social experiments on kids,
huge spikes and increases in taxes. We can remind all
(03:28):
of that with voters, then Republicans will be fine and
it won't be It won't be a bloodbath. I think
on the Senate there's there's very much an option to
hold the majority at fifty three. Maybe a seat changes
here or there, but there's even a path that we
could add a seat like Mike Graduates in Michigan or
Johnson Neunew in New Hampshire to pick up opportunities. You know,
(03:51):
George's got a primary. If that primary can get settled,
then we'll know who's going after John Oss and how
much time do we have to go after him. So
there's a lot of factors I think that are at
play right now with it being this early, but certainly
it is. The mood is definitely felt with voters and
they're looking for more.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
I guess you know, I hear you on President Trump
defying the odds, but he's not on the ballot driving
turn out this midterm. And I think that is what
worries me because you look at I saw somewhere that
the Democrats have flipped around thirty eighth up held state
legislative seats since last January, and we've not seen that
(04:31):
movement the other way around. You know, you look at
the election cycle November twenty twenty five, and you know,
Democrats have been motivated to get out and vote, and
I just I worry that Republicans don't share the same enthusiasm.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
He's the President's definitely going to have to campaign as
if he as if it was a presidential election. He's
going to have to get out there in the battleground states,
in the twelve to twenty house congressional battle ground districts.
He's going to have to get out there because he's
not on the ballot, but every single one of his
policies are, and the fear of the Democratic agenda is,
(05:10):
and so he is uniquely positioned to unlock this. And
I think Susie Wiles, the chief of Staff, had this
comment maybe it's probably been two months from now. She
was doing an interview and she made a joke about,
you know, the president doesn't know it yet, but he's
going to treat this year as if it was a
presidential year. And I think we should expect to see
that that he's going to hit the road. And I
(05:30):
think tomorrow, April fifteenth, is a really pivotal day that
you know, all Republicans have been waiting on, which is
tax Day, and we're going to see these record high
refunds with no help from the Democrats. Every single one
of them voted against the one big, beautiful bill that
delivered these tax cuts, and that is going to be meaningful.
(05:51):
And Trump is going to have to connect those dots.
Standing shoulder to shoulder with the Senate candidates and then
outside groups the party, we will come in and say, look, voters,
we have an amazing opportunity to do our civic duty
for President Trump and for America's flourishing the next two years.
And we got to get to the polls because no
(06:11):
one wants two more years of two years of impeachment
and chaos. It's already challenging on Capitol Hill. And you know,
we do these focus groups with Independence Lisa and even
Independence in states like Maine and North Carolina and Michigan.
They're all like, we don't want to see the democratic
chaos of two years of impeachment. That is like their
(06:32):
number one thing that they're voting against. So I think
that's going to also come into play as we get
closer here to November.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
Got to take a quick commercial break more with Jessica
on the other side. You know, you look at I
think it was in the twenty eighteen Drumbrets picked up
forty one seats. The generic ballot was around like eight
to twelve points at the time, and say it's closer
than to six deeplos six.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
And the real clear Paul like saverage.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
So not quite there yet where Democrats were at this
point when they picked up.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Forty one seats, but not too far away.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
How much time does you look at pulling on the
economy and Americans have some real concerns and they're not
feeling the enthusiasm there.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
How much time does President Trump have, you know?
Speaker 1 (07:22):
And he even said recently that gas prices we might
not see much improvement before the midterms. So I mean,
what do you do about those perceptions on the economy
right now?
Speaker 3 (07:34):
The messaging and we're seeing some of it already change
from the White House, but right now it's got to
change because voters need to know that what they're hearing
is honest. And so I actually think it was smart
for the President to say, look, gas prices might be
rough for the next three four weeks, but we're doing
(07:54):
it because we want safety and security not only here
at home but abroad. We're doing it because making sure
that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon or capability
is something that I said on the campaign trail seventy
eight times, like this is not a new commitment. So
I actually think when the President is honest with voters
(08:15):
and is not kind of painting a picture that is
divorced from their reality, that that builds back the trust.
But that second part is so important, like if we're
going to have higher prices at the pump, we need
to know why. And the more that the White House
comes out and explains and is transparent and puts those
cameras like I saw the cameras inside the talks with
(08:38):
Mark Rubio today, Like the more cameras are in there
and there's transparency about what we're fighting for and Iran
and why it matters, the more likely voters are willing
to take the extra costs. And I heard this a
lot a couple of years ago when Republicans were really
talking about securing the border, much of Washington and kind
(08:59):
of the chatter class was like, well that's going to
increase costs and the price of goods that are coming
in from Mexico, and the grassroots. I'm telling you, Lisa,
if I heard it once I heard it ten times
of this sentiment of We'll I'll pay more for the
cost of an avocado if it means my border is safe. Well,
avocados are a luxury, gas is a necessity. So it's
a little different, but the same sort of mindset I
(09:22):
think prevails here, which is the more the White House
explains our goals in Iran and what the progress has been,
and why it connects back to Venezuela, and then why
it looks forward to China and Russia, and why we
want global peace and stability for a regime that has
yelled death to America for decades and four presidents behind
(09:43):
us have sought to fix this and he's the first
one to do it. More, we can explain that the
more likely voters are to trust that the president is
fighting for them and has their best interest. But when
we just say, when we ignore the gas prices and
we tell people that they're crazy or that it's better
than they think, that's I think where we actually lose
that trust with voters, which is what we're going to
(10:03):
need this summer to really mount a campaign to win
in the fall.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
Look, I'm for the war, but I'm not sure if
Americans view that is a fair trade off on Iran,
you know, the borders or border right, so that directly
affects US as a country and the people coming into
here and our safety and our sovereignty, you know, whereas
the war against Iran is you know, along the far
(10:30):
away right in the Middle East.
Speaker 3 (10:32):
Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
I'm not I'm not I'm not sure if he can
convince Americans that that's a fair trade off.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
I think that's playing out, and I think it's playing
out within the Republican Party. Some are some share that sentiment, others.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
I'm supportive of the war, but I'm just viewing thinking
about it at large of people who you know, might
not might not accept that as an excuse.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
I guess.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
And that's the challenge I think that the White House
has right now, and there they are. I think they've
increased their messaging of the why they've been very specific
about how Iran has you know, killed Americans have been
the world's leading sponsor of terrorism, and why holding them
accountable is a win for American interests. And I go
(11:22):
back to the you know, the president's long long standing
view of Iran not to have nuclear capabilities or a
nuclear weapon. I mean, that is not new, that predates
even him going down the Golden escalator. And so, you know,
I think the why really matters, and what the White
House is hedging on is that people will trust kind
(11:43):
of the fighter instincts in Trump to make that trade off, right,
to make the trade off on the economy. But if
you don't talk about it, then you're just left with rice,
you know, with gas prices that are increasing every day
and then and then they're left unanswered. So he's got
to he's got to try. And I think that's what
I've been pleased to see with the White House kind
of shifted some of their messaging in the last two
(12:05):
or three weeks as we've gotten further into this further
into this conflict.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
Now I hear you're saying, I agree with you on that.
I just don't know if people buy it. You know,
you know, you were centile Action fun you guys were
one of the groups that very helpful in getting Republicans
across the finish line and the presidential that will not
in the pre but with the you know, Senate races
and other races that were happening in the presidential cycle.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
What are we what are we doing in terms?
Speaker 1 (12:34):
Are we committed to the same turnout operation that we
saw in the presidential election and getting people to get
out and vote early, particularly with mail and balloting as well.
You know, what does that turnout operation look like for
the mid terms?
Speaker 3 (12:48):
Well, we've we've got to do both. So base voters
are definitely going to have to turn out, and I
think the campaigns and the RNC and the president's apparatuses
are the best in the best position to talk directly
to the base and encourage them to turn out. What
outside groups like Sentinal Action Fund, what we did last
cycle and what we're planning to do this cycle is
(13:10):
to look at those what's called low propensity voters, so
they're registered Republicans, but they don't vote consistently. And those
types of voters they take time and so they take
time and they need multiple kind of ways to vote,
and so we like to talk to them about how
to vote, where to vote, why to vote, and then
we slowly start bringing in the candidates once we've established
(13:33):
that okay, it's worth voting, right. So the trust aspect
is so important in this sort of turnout operation, because
we have to have trust with these voters that they
know that they're vote counted, Like what do they get
for their what did they get for their vote last time?
And if that was the first time they ever voted
in twenty twenty four and we're asking them to come
out again in twenty twenty six. Well, one of the
(13:53):
big things that they got is that the tax refunds
that are coming out tomorrow are eleven percent higher this year.
And this is, you know, a record breaking number. The
average tax return is about thirty seven hundred this year.
I mean, that's awesome. And you couple that with the
border being secure, with the d rag agenda, and you
go to the winds, right. I think of it as
(14:14):
like we're on second base, we're around in the corner,
we're on our way to third. It's not a home
run yet. But the economy is turning around and parts
of the economy are doing very well. You look at
the jobs numbers. I know we've talked a lot about that,
with over one hundred and what seventy eight thousand new
jobs in March, well above expectations. So you talk about
(14:36):
the things that are working, you do it now and
so we're in a position where we are trying to
talk to these about four and a half million low
propensity voters spread out over the six major Senate battleground races.
So that's Maine, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, New Hampshire,
(14:57):
those six races. We are talking to them now. So
we've launched Michigan, we've launched Maine, we're getting ready to
launch Ohio. And we need to talk to them at
least thirty times. So the touches and the conversations at
the door and over text message and through the mail.
You know that can't be condensed after Labor Day. You
(15:18):
would you would annoy, you would annoy voters if you had,
you know, thirty incoming mailers in two days, that would
be terrible, right, So you need time to talk to
voters to turn them out. And we think that the
best way these low propensity voters can vote is to
give them the options. If you can't stand in line
on election day, skip the line and vote early. The
(15:39):
military uses absentee balloting all the time. If you have
a reasonable excuse to use it, use it. And I
think that gives us it kind of widens the aperture
for how voters are voting, and then of course election
day is the insurance policy all of these low prop voters.
Of course they can still vote on election day. So
if they haven't voted early, or if they haven't voted absentee,
(16:02):
then they've got that shot on an election day and
we can drive them to the polls. And the data
has gotten so sophisticated. I mean, we can literally track
these voters all the way up and then once they vote,
you stop, We stop bothering them so to speak. Right,
we can thank them for voting, I encourage them to
get their neighbors, their family members, whatever to vote as well.
So we're launching this, We've launched this effort. We're committed
(16:23):
to it. We're excited to work with so many great
partners like the RNC and SLF and NRSC and the campaigns.
I think you're going to see a lot more from
kind of the infrastructure side roll out now that we're
getting to the summer months where this sort of engagement
really matters.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
Quick break, stay with us.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Do you like what you're hearing, Please share and social
media or senate to your family and friends. Political port
recently moved some of the Senate races a little further
to the left. North Carolina Senate race went from toss
up to lean d Georgia Senate race went from toss
up to lean d Ohio Senate race leanard to toss up.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
Yeah, so what do you agree with that assessment or.
Speaker 3 (17:10):
I think that those sorts of moves are indicative of
looking at macro polling, which shows that the environment is
a challenge for Republicans. I don't know that these sorts
of moves are really reflective of how much time Republicans
have to win back that trust and to champion the
(17:31):
things that have gone well. So there's it's a snapshot
in the moment. You know. I expect that cook political
report will probably change these again in thirty days, and
that's just the nature of the cycle. I mean, I
think in each of these states there's really unique things
that are going on. You look at North Carolina moving
from a toss up to a lean d well the
influx of independence in that state. That is the fight.
(17:54):
The fight is for what's going to happen to those
independent voters. Will they vote for Watley, who is Trump's
endorsed pick or will they vote vote for Cooper, you know,
an extremist Democrat who's going to run as a moderate.
And that's where I go back to what if Independence
in North Carolina have been telling us they don't want
two years of chaos with impeachment, and so they are
(18:15):
up for grabs. For Borough, Ohio. I mean, that's a
state that is going to be one and loss based
on the low propensity voter turnout. If registered Republicans that
don't vote consistently turn out, then Senator Houston returns to
the Senate. It's that simple, and I think you've got
to look at the math for the numbers of the
voter population in the state and you kind of have
(18:37):
to grin and bear it through the atmosphere. But stick
to what's been working, stick to the wins from President Trump,
be honest about where we're at, and then remember that
we have time to get in front of these voters through.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
The summer and then before we go. We also have
a lot of money. Republicans have done really well with fundraising.
I think it was the NRCC broke beat the d
Trible c and like broke records.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Recently, Maggie Inc Has I.
Speaker 1 (19:06):
Think over three hundred million dollars, I want to say,
you know, and so the RNC outraising the d n C.
I mean, money is obviously not everything, but it helps.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Uh, you know what kind.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
Of advantage do you think that money will have the cycle?
Speaker 3 (19:25):
Well, it's it's never really a place that Republicans are
used to being, and usually Republicans are outraised and outspent
by the left. And so I actually think it's a
testament to how broad the Trump coalition is that you
have small dollar investments to Wall Street investments that are saying, no,
we don't want two years of democratic chaos with impeachment.
(19:47):
We want Trump to have a partner in the Senate,
in the House, and we're going to fight like hell
to make that happen. And so you know that that
sort of sign and indicator that people are giving is
an early indicator that the base is going to come
home and vote in November. So I think it's it's
not just the money. Of course, the dollars will go
further and they'll be spent wisely, but it's it's what
(20:10):
does the money represent. Well, it represents a partnership and
belief and trust that Republicans can pull this off really
against the odds, and frankly in a tough environment right now.
So I was I saw the Congressional Committee's numbers this
morning too, and I was thrilled to see them. I
think it's really great because the House races are a
whole different ballgame, and obviously Mike Johnson's in the fight
(20:32):
of his life to keep the majority in place. And
I think every day there's a new scandal on the
Democratic side that shakes the numbers up again, and so
we may maybe fighting numbers that are changing all the
way up till all the way up till October. I mean,
who knows how this is going to shake out, and
then of course with redistricting. So I think there's a
lot of investments being on the House for good reason
(20:55):
and on the Senate side. You know, the good thing
is is these at least in these six bad gund states,
there's twelve House races that overlap, and so the fight
is going to be in these same places, and the
need and the urgency to go deeper to talk to
those voters, and more money allows more touches, It allows
(21:16):
more sophisticated communication, better metrics, better targeting, better data, All
of that is good, and I think it's an early
indicator that the base is going to be there for
the president.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
Yeah, and if you're driving turn out for the Senate races,
hopefully those votes carry down to the congressional races as well.
Jessica Anderson, President of the Sentinel Action Fund, thanks for
breaking this all down for us.
Speaker 3 (21:36):
We really appreciate it absolutely. Thanks for having me those.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
Jessica Anderson, president of the Sentinel Action Fund.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
Appreciate her for coming on the show.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday,
but you can listen throughout the week. I also want
to think John Cassio and my producer for putting the
show together.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
Until next time.
Welcome to the Truth with Lisa Booth, where we get
to the heart of the issues that matter to you today.
We're talking midterms. The party in charge typically always runs
into some sort of buzz saw in the midterm elections.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
How big is that buzzsaw going to be?
Speaker 1 (00:15):
You can go back to twenty eighteen during President Trump's
first midterm cycle and Democrats picked up forty one seats
in the House.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Is that the kind of landscape that we're in right now?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
We're going to lean on Jessica Anderson, the president of
the Sentinel Action Fund. Her group was pivotal in twenty
twenty four with driving out early voters, low propensity voters,
and a lot of the key Senate races there.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
So we're going to lean on her.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
What does she sing for the upcoming midterm elections? Her
group has done focus groups as well. What are voters
saying a lot of key issues with the war in Iran,
with the economy, with gas prices.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
The list goes on. So what does it all mean?
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Are there troubling early warning signs or is it bengled
over bloom. We're gonna ask Jessica about all of this
and more. Stay tuned for Jessica Anderson, president of the
Sentinel Action Fund.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Well, Jessica, it's great to have you back on the show.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
I'm a little bit worried about our conversation because I'm
sorry to get a little nervous about the mid terms
coming up, just as you know, the party in charge
always kind of runs into a buzzsaw in the midtermal elections.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
The question is how big is the bus all going
to be? How big do you think it will be?
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Well, thanks for having me, and I think it's just
really important to remind everyone it's April election years, so
there's plenty of time. The election is not next week.
And some of the kind of atmospheric and environmental things
that we're seeing show up and polling, we're seeing it
both in private and public polling that might show the
loss of trust on the issues with Republicans. There's plenty
(01:59):
of time to talk about the issues we know voters
care about, remind them of the contrasts with Democrats, and
then show the urgency of turning out in November. So,
you know, I think the conventional Washington DC knowledge is
always that the midterms go bad for the sitting party
in power. But I've said this for a year and
I still think this today. If anyone can defy the odds,
(02:22):
it's going to be President Trump, and he has every
tool at his disposal. I think to do that to
flip conventional wisdom on its side. But I think for
him to do that, we've got to get Republicans. And
I put wee in the collective here. My organization sent
an action fund. We have to do the hard work
right now about talking about the good things that are happening.
(02:45):
And what we've seen from President Trump of him being
a fighter and being a fighter is exactly what shows
up in every poll, every focus group after the twenty
twenty four you know, after Action reports, everything is is
Washington going to fight? Are they going to fight at
the border with crime, with our foreign adversaries, with the economy,
(03:07):
and so if we can if we can message properly
like that, couple it with reminding people the fear of
the Democratic agenda and what the flip side of this
is chaos with impeachment, open borders, social experiments on kids,
huge spikes and increases in taxes. We can remind all
(03:28):
of that with voters, then Republicans will be fine and
it won't be It won't be a bloodbath. I think
on the Senate there's there's very much an option to
hold the majority at fifty three. Maybe a seat changes
here or there, but there's even a path that we
could add a seat like Mike Graduates in Michigan or
Johnson Neunew in New Hampshire to pick up opportunities. You know,
(03:51):
George's got a primary. If that primary can get settled,
then we'll know who's going after John Oss and how
much time do we have to go after him. So
there's a lot of factors I think that are at
play right now with it being this early, but certainly
it is. The mood is definitely felt with voters and
they're looking for more.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
I guess you know, I hear you on President Trump
defying the odds, but he's not on the ballot driving
turn out this midterm. And I think that is what
worries me because you look at I saw somewhere that
the Democrats have flipped around thirty eighth up held state
legislative seats since last January, and we've not seen that
(04:31):
movement the other way around. You know, you look at
the election cycle November twenty twenty five, and you know,
Democrats have been motivated to get out and vote, and
I just I worry that Republicans don't share the same enthusiasm.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
He's the President's definitely going to have to campaign as
if he as if it was a presidential election. He's
going to have to get out there in the battleground states,
in the twelve to twenty house congressional battle ground districts.
He's going to have to get out there because he's
not on the ballot, but every single one of his
policies are, and the fear of the Democratic agenda is,
(05:10):
and so he is uniquely positioned to unlock this. And
I think Susie Wiles, the chief of Staff, had this
comment maybe it's probably been two months from now. She
was doing an interview and she made a joke about,
you know, the president doesn't know it yet, but he's
going to treat this year as if it was a
presidential year. And I think we should expect to see
that that he's going to hit the road. And I
(05:30):
think tomorrow, April fifteenth, is a really pivotal day that
you know, all Republicans have been waiting on, which is
tax Day, and we're going to see these record high
refunds with no help from the Democrats. Every single one
of them voted against the one big, beautiful bill that
delivered these tax cuts, and that is going to be meaningful.
(05:51):
And Trump is going to have to connect those dots.
Standing shoulder to shoulder with the Senate candidates and then
outside groups the party, we will come in and say, look, voters,
we have an amazing opportunity to do our civic duty
for President Trump and for America's flourishing the next two years.
And we got to get to the polls because no
(06:11):
one wants two more years of two years of impeachment
and chaos. It's already challenging on Capitol Hill. And you know,
we do these focus groups with Independence Lisa and even
Independence in states like Maine and North Carolina and Michigan.
They're all like, we don't want to see the democratic
chaos of two years of impeachment. That is like their
(06:32):
number one thing that they're voting against. So I think
that's going to also come into play as we get
closer here to November.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
Got to take a quick commercial break more with Jessica
on the other side. You know, you look at I
think it was in the twenty eighteen Drumbrets picked up
forty one seats. The generic ballot was around like eight
to twelve points at the time, and say it's closer
than to six deeplos six.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
And the real clear Paul like saverage.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
So not quite there yet where Democrats were at this
point when they picked up.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Forty one seats, but not too far away.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
How much time does you look at pulling on the
economy and Americans have some real concerns and they're not
feeling the enthusiasm there.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
How much time does President Trump have, you know?
Speaker 1 (07:22):
And he even said recently that gas prices we might
not see much improvement before the midterms. So I mean,
what do you do about those perceptions on the economy
right now?
Speaker 3 (07:34):
The messaging and we're seeing some of it already change
from the White House, but right now it's got to
change because voters need to know that what they're hearing
is honest. And so I actually think it was smart
for the President to say, look, gas prices might be
rough for the next three four weeks, but we're doing
(07:54):
it because we want safety and security not only here
at home but abroad. We're doing it because making sure
that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon or capability
is something that I said on the campaign trail seventy
eight times, like this is not a new commitment. So
I actually think when the President is honest with voters
(08:15):
and is not kind of painting a picture that is
divorced from their reality, that that builds back the trust.
But that second part is so important, like if we're
going to have higher prices at the pump, we need
to know why. And the more that the White House
comes out and explains and is transparent and puts those
cameras like I saw the cameras inside the talks with
(08:38):
Mark Rubio today, Like the more cameras are in there
and there's transparency about what we're fighting for and Iran
and why it matters, the more likely voters are willing
to take the extra costs. And I heard this a
lot a couple of years ago when Republicans were really
talking about securing the border, much of Washington and kind
(08:59):
of the chatter class was like, well that's going to
increase costs and the price of goods that are coming
in from Mexico, and the grassroots. I'm telling you, Lisa,
if I heard it once I heard it ten times
of this sentiment of We'll I'll pay more for the
cost of an avocado if it means my border is safe. Well,
avocados are a luxury, gas is a necessity. So it's
a little different, but the same sort of mindset I
(09:22):
think prevails here, which is the more the White House
explains our goals in Iran and what the progress has been,
and why it connects back to Venezuela, and then why
it looks forward to China and Russia, and why we
want global peace and stability for a regime that has
yelled death to America for decades and four presidents behind
(09:43):
us have sought to fix this and he's the first
one to do it. More, we can explain that the
more likely voters are to trust that the president is
fighting for them and has their best interest. But when
we just say, when we ignore the gas prices and
we tell people that they're crazy or that it's better
than they think, that's I think where we actually lose
that trust with voters, which is what we're going to
(10:03):
need this summer to really mount a campaign to win
in the fall.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
Look, I'm for the war, but I'm not sure if
Americans view that is a fair trade off on Iran,
you know, the borders or border right, so that directly
affects US as a country and the people coming into
here and our safety and our sovereignty, you know, whereas
the war against Iran is you know, along the far
(10:30):
away right in the Middle East.
Speaker 3 (10:32):
Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
I'm not I'm not I'm not sure if he can
convince Americans that that's a fair trade off.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
I think that's playing out, and I think it's playing
out within the Republican Party. Some are some share that sentiment, others.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
I'm supportive of the war, but I'm just viewing thinking
about it at large of people who you know, might
not might not accept that as an excuse.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
I guess.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
And that's the challenge I think that the White House
has right now, and there they are. I think they've
increased their messaging of the why they've been very specific
about how Iran has you know, killed Americans have been
the world's leading sponsor of terrorism, and why holding them
accountable is a win for American interests. And I go
(11:22):
back to the you know, the president's long long standing
view of Iran not to have nuclear capabilities or a
nuclear weapon. I mean, that is not new, that predates
even him going down the Golden escalator. And so, you know,
I think the why really matters, and what the White
House is hedging on is that people will trust kind
(11:43):
of the fighter instincts in Trump to make that trade off, right,
to make the trade off on the economy. But if
you don't talk about it, then you're just left with rice,
you know, with gas prices that are increasing every day
and then and then they're left unanswered. So he's got
to he's got to try. And I think that's what
I've been pleased to see with the White House kind
of shifted some of their messaging in the last two
(12:05):
or three weeks as we've gotten further into this further
into this conflict.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
Now I hear you're saying, I agree with you on that.
I just don't know if people buy it. You know,
you know, you were centile Action fun you guys were
one of the groups that very helpful in getting Republicans
across the finish line and the presidential that will not
in the pre but with the you know, Senate races
and other races that were happening in the presidential cycle.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
What are we what are we doing in terms?
Speaker 1 (12:34):
Are we committed to the same turnout operation that we
saw in the presidential election and getting people to get
out and vote early, particularly with mail and balloting as well.
You know, what does that turnout operation look like for
the mid terms?
Speaker 3 (12:48):
Well, we've we've got to do both. So base voters
are definitely going to have to turn out, and I
think the campaigns and the RNC and the president's apparatuses
are the best in the best position to talk directly
to the base and encourage them to turn out. What
outside groups like Sentinal Action Fund, what we did last
cycle and what we're planning to do this cycle is
(13:10):
to look at those what's called low propensity voters, so
they're registered Republicans, but they don't vote consistently. And those
types of voters they take time and so they take
time and they need multiple kind of ways to vote,
and so we like to talk to them about how
to vote, where to vote, why to vote, and then
we slowly start bringing in the candidates once we've established
(13:33):
that okay, it's worth voting, right. So the trust aspect
is so important in this sort of turnout operation, because
we have to have trust with these voters that they
know that they're vote counted, Like what do they get
for their what did they get for their vote last time?
And if that was the first time they ever voted
in twenty twenty four and we're asking them to come
out again in twenty twenty six. Well, one of the
(13:53):
big things that they got is that the tax refunds
that are coming out tomorrow are eleven percent higher this year.
And this is, you know, a record breaking number. The
average tax return is about thirty seven hundred this year.
I mean, that's awesome. And you couple that with the
border being secure, with the d rag agenda, and you
go to the winds, right. I think of it as
(14:14):
like we're on second base, we're around in the corner,
we're on our way to third. It's not a home
run yet. But the economy is turning around and parts
of the economy are doing very well. You look at
the jobs numbers. I know we've talked a lot about that,
with over one hundred and what seventy eight thousand new
jobs in March, well above expectations. So you talk about
(14:36):
the things that are working, you do it now and
so we're in a position where we are trying to
talk to these about four and a half million low
propensity voters spread out over the six major Senate battleground races.
So that's Maine, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, New Hampshire,
(14:57):
those six races. We are talking to them now. So
we've launched Michigan, we've launched Maine, we're getting ready to
launch Ohio. And we need to talk to them at
least thirty times. So the touches and the conversations at
the door and over text message and through the mail.
You know that can't be condensed after Labor Day. You
(15:18):
would you would annoy, you would annoy voters if you had,
you know, thirty incoming mailers in two days, that would
be terrible, right, So you need time to talk to
voters to turn them out. And we think that the
best way these low propensity voters can vote is to
give them the options. If you can't stand in line
on election day, skip the line and vote early. The
(15:39):
military uses absentee balloting all the time. If you have
a reasonable excuse to use it, use it. And I
think that gives us it kind of widens the aperture
for how voters are voting, and then of course election
day is the insurance policy all of these low prop voters.
Of course they can still vote on election day. So
if they haven't voted early, or if they haven't voted absentee,
(16:02):
then they've got that shot on an election day and
we can drive them to the polls. And the data
has gotten so sophisticated. I mean, we can literally track
these voters all the way up and then once they vote,
you stop, We stop bothering them so to speak. Right,
we can thank them for voting, I encourage them to
get their neighbors, their family members, whatever to vote as well.
So we're launching this, We've launched this effort. We're committed
(16:23):
to it. We're excited to work with so many great
partners like the RNC and SLF and NRSC and the campaigns.
I think you're going to see a lot more from
kind of the infrastructure side roll out now that we're
getting to the summer months where this sort of engagement
really matters.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
Quick break, stay with us.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Do you like what you're hearing, Please share and social
media or senate to your family and friends. Political port
recently moved some of the Senate races a little further
to the left. North Carolina Senate race went from toss
up to lean d Georgia Senate race went from toss
up to lean d Ohio Senate race leanard to toss up.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
Yeah, so what do you agree with that assessment or.
Speaker 3 (17:10):
I think that those sorts of moves are indicative of
looking at macro polling, which shows that the environment is
a challenge for Republicans. I don't know that these sorts
of moves are really reflective of how much time Republicans
have to win back that trust and to champion the
(17:31):
things that have gone well. So there's it's a snapshot
in the moment. You know. I expect that cook political
report will probably change these again in thirty days, and
that's just the nature of the cycle. I mean, I
think in each of these states there's really unique things
that are going on. You look at North Carolina moving
from a toss up to a lean d well the
influx of independence in that state. That is the fight.
(17:54):
The fight is for what's going to happen to those
independent voters. Will they vote for Watley, who is Trump's
endorsed pick or will they vote vote for Cooper, you know,
an extremist Democrat who's going to run as a moderate.
And that's where I go back to what if Independence
in North Carolina have been telling us they don't want
two years of chaos with impeachment, and so they are
(18:15):
up for grabs. For Borough, Ohio. I mean, that's a
state that is going to be one and loss based
on the low propensity voter turnout. If registered Republicans that
don't vote consistently turn out, then Senator Houston returns to
the Senate. It's that simple, and I think you've got
to look at the math for the numbers of the
voter population in the state and you kind of have
(18:37):
to grin and bear it through the atmosphere. But stick
to what's been working, stick to the wins from President Trump,
be honest about where we're at, and then remember that
we have time to get in front of these voters through.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
The summer and then before we go. We also have
a lot of money. Republicans have done really well with fundraising.
I think it was the NRCC broke beat the d
Trible c and like broke records.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Recently, Maggie Inc Has I.
Speaker 1 (19:06):
Think over three hundred million dollars, I want to say,
you know, and so the RNC outraising the d n C.
I mean, money is obviously not everything, but it helps.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Uh, you know what kind.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
Of advantage do you think that money will have the cycle?
Speaker 3 (19:25):
Well, it's it's never really a place that Republicans are
used to being, and usually Republicans are outraised and outspent
by the left. And so I actually think it's a
testament to how broad the Trump coalition is that you
have small dollar investments to Wall Street investments that are saying, no,
we don't want two years of democratic chaos with impeachment.
(19:47):
We want Trump to have a partner in the Senate,
in the House, and we're going to fight like hell
to make that happen. And so you know that that
sort of sign and indicator that people are giving is
an early indicator that the base is going to come
home and vote in November. So I think it's it's
not just the money. Of course, the dollars will go
further and they'll be spent wisely, but it's it's what
(20:10):
does the money represent. Well, it represents a partnership and
belief and trust that Republicans can pull this off really
against the odds, and frankly in a tough environment right now.
So I was I saw the Congressional Committee's numbers this
morning too, and I was thrilled to see them. I
think it's really great because the House races are a
whole different ballgame, and obviously Mike Johnson's in the fight
(20:32):
of his life to keep the majority in place. And
I think every day there's a new scandal on the
Democratic side that shakes the numbers up again, and so
we may maybe fighting numbers that are changing all the
way up till all the way up till October. I mean,
who knows how this is going to shake out, and
then of course with redistricting. So I think there's a
lot of investments being on the House for good reason
(20:55):
and on the Senate side. You know, the good thing
is is these at least in these six bad gund states,
there's twelve House races that overlap, and so the fight
is going to be in these same places, and the
need and the urgency to go deeper to talk to
those voters, and more money allows more touches, It allows
(21:16):
more sophisticated communication, better metrics, better targeting, better data, All
of that is good, and I think it's an early
indicator that the base is going to be there for
the president.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
Yeah, and if you're driving turn out for the Senate races,
hopefully those votes carry down to the congressional races as well.
Jessica Anderson, President of the Sentinel Action Fund, thanks for
breaking this all down for us.
Speaker 3 (21:36):
We really appreciate it absolutely. Thanks for having me those.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
Jessica Anderson, president of the Sentinel Action Fund.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
Appreciate her for coming on the show.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday,
but you can listen throughout the week. I also want
to think John Cassio and my producer for putting the
show together.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
Until next time.
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