April 11, 2026 • 36 mins
This is Hour 1 of the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, and the entire opening hour is dominated by an in-depth, wide-ranging discussion of the Middle East ceasefire involving Iran, the Trump administration’s military action, and the global economic and political consequences now unfolding. Clay and Buck open the hour by reacting to dramatic market movement tied directly to the announced ceasefire, with U.S. stocks surging, the Dow posting a rare gain of more than 1,200 points, and oil and gas prices falling sharply. They frame these developments as evidence that markets are responding positively to de-escalation, highlighting investor relief, lower energy prices, and broader economic stability tied to American energy independence.
From there, Hour 1 focuses almost exclusively on whether the Iran ceasefire is real, temporary, or merely a pause before renewed conflict. Buck Sexton repeatedly warns that this is not a true peace agreement but a short-term extension designed to buy time, arguing that Iran’s proposed demands are non-starters, including keeping nuclear capabilities and imposing tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. Clay Travis counters with cautious optimism, suggesting that U.S. air superiority, intelligence surveillance, and the destruction of Iran’s military infrastructure may have effectively neutralized Iran’s ability to rapidly rebuild its nuclear program, even if Tehran refuses to admit it publicly. A central theme throughout the hour is whether Iran is acting rationally behind the scenes versus engaging in public anti-American rhetoric for domestic political survival.
The hosts debate whether the Trump administration has achieved a meaningful strategic win or merely delayed an inevitable confrontation. Buck expresses skepticism that Iran will ever abandon its nuclear ambitions, pointing out that regimes like Iran prioritize survival, power, and deterrence above economic pain, even at the cost of civilian suffering. Clay argues that Iran’s economy is uniquely vulnerable due to its dependence on oil and gas exports, and that shutting down or restricting Iranian access to global energy markets would collapse the regime’s finances far faster than it would harm the United States, particularly given America’s energy production strength.
Another major focus of Hour 1 is the Strait of Hormuz, which Clay and Buck repeatedly identify as the critical choke point in the conflict. They analyze Iran’s threat to close or control shipping lanes, debate whether Iran truly has the leverage to shut down the strait, and explore the possibility that Iran may instead attempt to impose informal tolls on oil tankers. Clay argues the U.S. Navy could prevent Iranian oil exports entirely if necessary, while Buck warns that Iran may be willing to escalate attacks on tankers or civilian infrastructure to raise global pressure on the Trump administration, especially during an election cycle.
The hour also includes discussion of internal instability within Iran, questioning who is actually making decisions following reports that Iran’s supreme leadership may be incapacitated or hidden from public view. Both hosts suggest that factional infighting inside the regime could make negotiations unreliable and increase the risk of rogue actions, including attacks on shipping or regional targets by militias or the IRGC. A clip from Vice President JD Vance reinforces the administration’s official position: negotiations are possible if Iran acts in good faith, but military and economic pressure remain firmly on the table.
In addition to foreign policy, Hour 1 briefly touches on domestic political news, including the outcome of a special election in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, where Clay Fuller wins a Republican primary race to fill the seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene. This update reinforces the show’s focus on conservative political momentum alongside national security issues.
The hour closes with Clay and Buck acknowledging deep disagreement between them on Iran’s intentions but emphasizing the importance of honest debate. Clay remains hopeful that private concessions and deterrence will prevent Iran from resuming its nuclear pursuit, while Buck predicts prolonged negotiations, strategic stalling by Tehran, and eventual renewed pressure or conflict.
Make sure you never miss a second of the show by subscribing to the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton show podcast wherever you get your podcasts! ihr.fm/3InlkL8
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome back in.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
I say back in because it feels like we're constantly
talking and always here, because there is a lot of
hours that we spend.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
With all of you.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
It is the Wednesday edition of the program. And I
will say as a ceasefire has taken roots in the
Middle East, as I speak to you all presently, the
stock market has surged, oil and gas prices have collapsed.
It's almost like if you listen to us and do
(00:31):
not panic, you will end up doing better in your life.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
The S and P five hundred up two.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Point four percent, a huge surge in that marketplace, Dow
up two point seven percent as we are talking twelve
hundred and forty five points at the present day. Needless
to say, days when the stock market goes up over
one thousand points are relatively rare. Days when the stock
market surges like this are not common. The price of
(00:59):
oil and as I speak to all of you, dropping
eighteen dollars down some fifteen percent or so, stock soaring,
oil sinking as a truce, A ceasefire is underway in
the Middle East. Now, buck, as you can well imagine,
we've got some cuts to play for you. But I
(01:21):
saw Pete hegg set this morning saying Iran needs to
notify some of its people via carrier pigeon that they
need to stop firing off drones and missiles. There are
still issues in Lebanon. It's not as if the Middle
East is usually very calm in the first place, so
you are it seems filled with some measure of trepidation
about how long the ceasefire might last. But for the moment,
(01:44):
stock soaring, oil collapsing, and now you can come tap
dance on with some negativity after my one and.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
A half minute positive open there.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Thank you, and I'm glad that we represent both sides
of the pro Trump pro American piece in the Middle
East point of view.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
But a little bit, a little bit of a variation
here on my sense of it.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
First of all, I said yesterday they're gonna just extend
this thing, which is really what this is. This is
an extension. Nothing has been agreed to that is lasting bonding.
I mean, I know you meant ceasefire and you said that,
but this is not a truce. This is not a
long term agreement. This is a we're gonna stop pounding
(02:30):
you from the air and try to talk to you
about some things and see if you will come to
your senses. Now, I view this play very much as
a we'll see situation. But here's the downside, or here's
my negative impulses about some of this. The Iran ten
point deal that they've put forward via intermediaries in Pakistan
(02:54):
is awful. It is unworkable. Yeah, their positions are we
get to keep nukes, we get control and can take
tolls on ships. Now in the Strait of Horn moves,
America promises to stop attacking US, and Israel promises to
stop attacking Hesbela as well as I mean, you go
down this list. Now, I understand this is a, as
(03:18):
Trump says, a workable place to begin negotiations. But here
is the fundamental problem. As I see it, this is
now a race against the clock. This is basically the
timeline that Trump had for the completion of this mission.
And I thought, I said on the show, I think
(03:38):
it'll be done by April first. Okay, it's April eighth.
We aren't bombing them anymore, so pretty darn close. Because
the politics here at home play a large part in
this Clay, I do not see a future in which
Iran renounces its nuclear ambitions agrees to true and people
say intrusive, but I mean, you know, nuclear inspections gives
(04:02):
up its highly enriched uranium. And if anything, I think
the Iranian the Iranian regime that is in place, views
this as a okay, you hit us with your best
shot and we are still standing. I think the Iranians
believe that we for political reasons, and that's not even
really the right term. The American people will not go
(04:23):
along with a sustained ground invasion of Iran, and I
would agree with that sentiment. I might add, so that's
not on the table. The American people do not want
high gas prices, and that means that Republicans are going
to start pressuring Trump if we go back to bombing them.
We have a delay here in the campaign. Does anyone
really I mean, I'll ask you this. Do you think
(04:45):
in two weeks we're going to have a real agreement
with Iran that they can be held to and that
we have faith in and that ends this thing I
have And then what do we do We start bombing
them again?
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Well then they shut the st it removes is a
real choke point, is a real problem.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Sorry, go ahead, No, No, I think The question you're
asking is the one that is the next step here.
How much is this going to hold? And already there's
disputes over what can happen in Lebanon and all these
different aspects of Israeli action because Israel has been very
active in northern Israel southern Lebanon. I think what's going
(05:26):
to end up happening is there will be flash points
on this for probably the next six months between now
and the end of the year.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
And do you mean.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Flash points do you mean things going boom in Iran
or do you mean mean words in the diplomatic I
think things going boom in Iran. I think we'll probably
scramble jets and go hit some more targets at some
point in time to demonstrate that there has to be
some some tacit relationship and agreement.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
We just at the after that, though, is.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
There some Does Iran finally bend the knee and agree
to Trump's terms? Either answer is no. There's fifteen demands
from our side, there's ten demands from their side. And
the two demanding lists are in direct How far apart
is this is like I want a million dollars from
(06:18):
my house, I'll give you five bucks.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
That's where we are.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Here is what I thought was the most interesting about this.
First of all, who was attributed to making the decision
on Iran side? It's the Gayetola. We don't even know
if the Gayetola can talk, we don't know where.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
Is this. I would roll with it. I can pronounce
that one.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Well, the the son of Kamine, the gayetolat.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Little Mo. I'm not sure if he's alive. I'm not
sure if he can speak.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
But what I think he provides Buck is a convenient
repository for this decision making. That makes it such that
whoever is actually making the decision in Iran is able
to say, oh no, no, no, that's not us. If it's
a little bit politically unpopular, that is the Supreme leader.
(07:14):
Even if the Supreme Leader is unable to make decisions, remember,
we still haven't heard his voice. We still haven't seen
a picture of him, we still haven't seen a video
of him. There are just reports that he was significantly injured.
And I want to push you on this a little bit.
I want to push you on this a little bit, okay,
because I actually want your optimism, and I'll be honest
with you I think most of the most of our
people with this right now, they want your like, they
(07:35):
don't want what I'm selling, But I just I can't lie.
I'm I don't think this is a disaster. Certainly in
the market, you're speaking that it's not a disaster right now,
and I think Trump's gonna walk away. But if you're
telling me, if we're looking at what comes out of
this campaign, right what fundamentally we get from this versus
what the Iranians get and what we wanted from the outset,
(07:56):
do you believe at the end, oh, like, make it
the end of this by the end of this year,
has Iran given up the enriched uranium? Has Iran agreed
to give up its nuclear pursuit? And is Iran no
longer in a position to choke us at the straight
offom Moose? Okay, so let's go through the order. They
basically have no air force, they have no navy, They
(08:18):
have very limited ability to engage in any sort of
aggressive act.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
We destroy their military, right their military.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Is done if you take at their word, and I
think this is likely true. Right now, we have satellite
observation on all of their fuel cells, all their uranium
deposits everything that would be used to construct a nuclear bomb,
and if Iran makes any effort to go and try
to retrieve that which appears to be significantly buried under
(08:49):
lots of top soil based on attacks, we would take
action as we see fit. So I think getting to
the uranium and riching it, all those things are going
to be very difficult. So I think we have effectively
neutered Iran's ability to impact in a significant way action
in the Middle East. What I think is the most
significant factor right now is who is making decisions and
(09:11):
can we trust them.
Speaker 1 (09:13):
To what extent do we believe?
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Remember go back in the early days of Venezuela Buck
when Delsi Rodriguez came out and said, oh, they're still
the American infidels. And then she's saying publicly one thing,
but privately she's basically doing whatever we want, and we're
not talking about Venezuela in a significant way. Does someone
have the sway in Iran? I don't care what they
(09:36):
say about publicly in our country. I don't care if
they show up and they throw their fist in the
air and they chant death to America. Privately, are they
being rational? And negotiating with us in a productive way.
And does the person who we are negotiating with, to
your point, Buck, actually have the wherewithal to control action
in Iran? Because it doesn't take much to blow up
(09:58):
one of these fuel tankers. And so if there are
competing factions inside of Iran, to what extent is the
leader able to actually lead and control what people in
the country are doing. We did this, and there's a
very detailed New York Times piece. Take it for what
it's worth, whether you think they believe it or not.
But a lot of it reads like what you would
expect it to read, like taking you inside this. It's
(10:21):
some of those meetings. I read this article too. Sometimes
New York Times articles read like fiction. This to you
and you've been in the rooms, But this read like
an accurate telling of what the debates surrounding this war
would be like. Yes, it sounds like somebody who was
in It sounds to me like somebody who was in
the room told them. Now, whenever someone does that, of course,
they're usually the hero of the narrative. And you know,
(10:43):
you could sort of piece some things together, or they
at least look the most astute. But I think the
New York Times piece largely aligns and I told you
this at the time. It talks about the little the
idea of maybe getting the Kurds involved, which they say
came from the Israelis, which I know from working the
Iraq issue for a year was a complete nonstarter. And
sure enough I was right. But the fact that that
(11:04):
came up, or rather that the reporting is that that
came up in the context of Iran. There were some
pieces here that make me think that this is how
it went down, how their decision making process was laid out.
But Clay, we keep going around that Trump this war
was fought to stop Iran from ever being able to
(11:25):
go nuclear. Now we're being told more that it was
to stop Iran's ballistic missile force. Okay, they're going to
be able to rebuild, that they're going to be able
to count on the oil flow to fund buying from
the Russians, buying from the Chinese, etc. Military hardware to
(11:47):
get them back to where they were. So I know
that we're supposed to believe that the destruction of ballistic
missile capability is like some fantastic victory.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
It's a victory.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
I'm not discounting it. Our military did incredible things. I'm
not encountered that just counting that either. But at the
end of this, do we have either a different regime
or a regime that agrees to the terms with which
we could go forward and say Iran is not a
nuclear threat anymore. I don't think the answer to either
(12:16):
of those questions is yes, And I just have to
be honest about that. I don't think that we're we're
in place with either of those things. If the incentive structure,
as we have talked about on the program, is for
Iran to get nuclear weapons because it strengthens the ability
and people in positions of power to stay there without
external forces being able to remove them as exists in
(12:38):
North Korea, is there anything that could occur that would
lead to Iran not pursuing nuclear weapons. Well, but this
is my concern here, is that we hit them with
everything we could from the air, as they told us,
as Secretary HeiG Sethus told us, and we annihilated them
with everything we could from the air. We got to
(12:58):
a point where it was, well, now we're just going
to blow up up your power plants and your you know,
your water treatment facilities, and everything else. That was what
Trump was talking about. Okay, well, that's that's not a
good thing. Like, that's not something you really want to
do to a country of ninety million people. And if
that's where we are for the next round of punishment,
I don't know that we have a stick big enough,
(13:19):
so to speak, to beat them into submission to give
us what we want at the end of this deal.
I think they're going to say to us, fine, hit
us again, we'll close the straight how long before your elections?
That's my concern, Clay. I think they know what's going
on here. I understand that concern. I think in the
back of their mind every leader in Iran knows that
we can take them out. And I'm working under the
(13:42):
capacity that we believe we have reached for Iran rational
leadership that does have some control over the country.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
We'll see. I don't.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I don't think we do. I don't think I don't
think we have a different government. I don't think we
have different people in charge. I think that that is
that ship has sailed. Here is here is the test
to what extent do any of these oil and tankers
get blown up? Because if they get blown up, then
everyone purely economically is going to say we can't risk
going through the strait of horror moves right now. I
(14:13):
don't think it's a rational act on Iran's leadership's behalf
to blow up oil and gas tankers right now. But
if they do, either they are intransigent, not working with us,
or they just don't have any control over the factions
that are willing to do. If I'm like this, the
head of whatever's left of the IRGC leadership, Clay and
Trump in two weeks blows up my power plants, blows
(14:37):
up truly civilian infrastructure.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
Yeah, I blow up an oil.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
Tanker in the straight of horror moose like, I make
this the whole world's problem real fast.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
So just looking up a.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Bunch of them, you could blow up a bunch of
them and it would cost almost nothing in terms of
the physical assets required to do so. And this is,
my friends, this is a suicide bomber culture we're talking
about here in the Middle least like they're willing to
take a lot of pain to take other people down.
So keep that in mind. You know how the Iranians
used to clear minefields play in the Iaran Iraq War.
(15:09):
They had a special cadre of humans who would run
to save tanks. Yeah, the Martyr Brigades. They would clear
the minefields by walking on them. And that's what we're
dealing with everybody. All right, Sorry, Buck is wompwamp, but
I'll always tell you the truth. I have my concerns.
(15:30):
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Speaker 3 (16:32):
Oh precent your pals Clan Buck on the iHeart as.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
All right, Welcome back into Clay and Buck talking a
lot about the Iran cease fire? What comes next? The
Trump administration declaring victory, the Iranian regime declaring victory. No
surprise there. Let's hear from JD Vance on this one
cut two.
Speaker 4 (16:49):
If the Iranians are willing in good faith to work
with us, I think we can make an agreement. If
they're gonna lie, if they're going to a cheat, if
they're trying to try to prevent even the fragile tree
roofs that we've set up from taking place. Then they're
not going to be happy because what the President has
also shown is that we still have clear military, diplomatic
and maybe most importantly, we have extraordinary economic leverage.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
The President has.
Speaker 4 (17:12):
Told us not to use those tools. He's told us
to come to the negotiating table. But if the Iranians
don't do the exact same thing, they're going to find
out that the President the United States is not one
to mess around. He's impatient, he's impatient.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
To make progress.
Speaker 4 (17:25):
He has told us to negotiating good faith, and I
think if they negotiate in good faith, we will be
able to find a deal. But that's a big iff,
and ultimately it's up to the Iranians how they negotiate.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
I hope they make the right decision.
Speaker 1 (17:36):
There's not going to be a deal. Tell you that
right now. Mark that down.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
There's not going to be a deal that Iran concedes
it's nuclear program and gives away it's some rich uranium.
Hold me to this one team. It's not going to
be a deal. So just get ready for that. I'm curious. Well,
we'll come back. I'll give you a question about this.
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Speaker 3 (18:53):
Truth and having fun. Clay, Travis and Buck Sexton.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
At Welcome Back in Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. By
the Way News, we had both Clay Fuller and Sean
Harris on in the Georgia fourteen Congressional district, that is
North Georgia up near the Tennessee border. Clay Fuller winning
by around twelve or thirteen points. Votes are still being cast,
(19:21):
but he has one to take over Marjorie Taylor Green's seat.
We had both those guys on Clay Fuller and Sean Harris,
and Clay Fuller has won.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
That race.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
Will be back again in November, as it's just a
short period of time to be to be fulfilling.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
All right, we got a couple of talkbacks. I'll get
to those.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
Let me ask you a question, Buck, What if there
is a wink wink, nod nod that Iran is not
going to touch the uranium and we are able to
say publicly, hey, nuclear ambitions in Iran are over, and
Iran is able to say publicly, we didn't give up
our nuclear ambitions. But there is an understanding that due
(20:07):
to American air superiority, Iran doesn't have the ability to
access what they had previously created, and that if they
do attempt to do so, there will be significant consequences,
but it will allow both sides to publicly claim victory
and the end result is one that we feel more
(20:28):
comfortable with than the other. I think that's probably the
most likely outcome here is that Iran says, oh, we
wanted the negotiating table, and America says, oh, we wanted
the negotiating table. And the question is to what extent
is that public statement consistent with private actions? So you
think that we'll de facto get the nuclear concessions from
(20:52):
Iran while they promised they're not going to give us
publicly the nuclear concessions. I think that allows Iran to
save face with the lead leadership.
Speaker 1 (21:01):
I don't think they're worried about saving face, my man.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
I think they think that they've got us on this
straight of hor moose thing and there I think they
took our best shot, and they're looking at us and
they're like, all right, what's next.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
You're gonna nucas? What's next? Now?
Speaker 2 (21:13):
By the way, I know we're not going to do that,
but I'm just saying, from their mentality, what are we
gonna do? Are we gonna start bombing them to get
in two weeks if there's no agreement, you really think
we're gonna do? We're really gonna do that? So here, yes,
I think we will. Here is the problem that I
see with the straight of Horror moves, it's basically cutting
their own throat if they don't allow the oil and
(21:34):
gas to transfer through transit through the straight of Horror moves.
The entire Iranian economy is predicated on being able to
sell oil and gas. One of the craziest things about
this entire military operation is they've continued to load oil
and gas onto Iranian ships and transit them through the
straight of Horror moves. If I think if they are
(21:58):
going to say, hey, we're not going to allow ships
to come through this area, we don't have to allow
Iranian ships out, or we can go in and we
can actually seize the Iranian oil and gas infrastructure. So
I don't see their threat, and by the way, we've
got to talk back on this. I don't see their
threat as viable because they can't exist as an economy
(22:22):
unless they're able to sell oil and gas, and their
pain point. I guess the question is to what extent
is their pain point necessary. I think at some point
in time everyone will just say to Iran and you
were starting to see this happen with the UAE and
other Saudi Arabian area countries, other Gulf countries, they oil
(22:42):
and gas has to flow. And even there are reports
that China was instrumental in getting this fourteen day ceasefire
negotiated because China needs the oil and gas coming out
of Iran. So I don't see a world where Iran
can say we're going to shut down the Strait of
Horror moves and actually be able to do it, because
(23:04):
I don't think there is a global support leave aside
the United States. China has to have this oil and gas.
A lot of other countries that are technically rivals of
the United States, much of Europe, has to have it.
I just don't see a world where they can actually
shut it down. Now we've got a question on this,
so I understand that way. You don't see a world
where they can shut down the straight No, we've been
(23:27):
wor No. I mean there's still ships coming through. I
don't think that they can, and Iranian ships have continued
to come through. I'm saying we can stop Iran ships
from coming through. We can shut off Iran's ability to
make any money at all. And it's a little bit
of clay like you know, can can Secaucus New Jersey
(23:49):
shut down shipping, you know, along its waterways better than
some country that's thousands of miles away.
Speaker 1 (23:57):
I mean, they're they're right there. That's why they have
they know.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
But what I'm saying is we could, if we needed to,
we could put a barricade up and we could say
we're not going to allow any Iranian oil to leave.
We are not going to allow them to access global
markets at all. I think Iran needs oil and gas
money more than we do. And again, this is a
(24:22):
lot of people have talked about this. You know who's
been celebrating the most in the United States over the
war in Iran? Texas oil people. The amount of money
that they are making when it's one hundred dollars a
barrel as opposed to sixty dollars a barrel is through
the roof. And because America has energy and dependence, we
actually as a country benefit to some extent when oil
(24:45):
and gas prices go up now because we are selling
oil and gas on the global market and our businesses
their profits skyrocket. Now individuals when it comes to what
we have to pay on oil and gas, have to
pay more, but a lot of that money stays in
the country, unlike in nineteen ninety one when we had
to go to war in the Middle East. If we
(25:05):
were confident we could stop Iranian Iranian ships from going through,
why wouldn't we just why wouldn't we do that?
Speaker 1 (25:13):
Right now?
Speaker 2 (25:14):
I think we've been allowing those ships out because it
puts more oil and gas on the marketplace. If I
were Trump right now, I would say they don't have
the I don't know why I hadn't said it publicly.
I mean, what's more important shutting down Iran entirely or
putting more oil.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
And gas in the global marketplace?
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Well, I think it leads to the question of how
long do you want to do it? There is a
pain point, right and the pain point is significant in
a mid term election cycle. But Iran the only way
they get any money at all is by having oil
and gas transit. Their ships have been transitting. Their threat
is will hit other country ships, which is why a
(25:52):
lot of other countries have decided we aren't willing to
run through the straight of hoor moves right now and
take the risk, which goes to So if we have
the strong haich you seem to think that we did,
I do, why can't we get them to concede. I
think we have to figure out who we're actually negotiating with.
I think the people who lead Iran are afraid that
if they be if they are seen in Iran as
(26:14):
bending the knee to the United States, then they lose power.
So that's why I think if you read this story,
they said the supreme leader who may be dead and
maybe in a coma, the new one, the Gaya Toola
actually made this decision. If you go read then and
you and you hear like, okay, who made the call
to do this cease fire?
Speaker 1 (26:33):
They are saying the Gayetola did it.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
I think he is right now a fiction that people
in positions that are trying to angle for power in
Iran are using as the guy who's making these deals
because I think they're afraid that if you are seen
as being in a good relationship with the United States
and Israel, it's hard to have power. So we have
to figure out who actually is capable of ruling Iran.
(26:59):
And here there's the day maybe there's not a person.
I hope, I hope what you were saying is true.
I don't I don't see it that way. I think
the Iranians feel like, oh, Wow, we really can just
shut down the Straight and Trump just blinked, and now
we get to make crazy demands and now we go
into months and months of negotiation.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
Why, I ask you, why didn't they shut down the
Straight of Horn moves before? Because we weren't bombing everything
in sight? What do you mean? Okay?
Speaker 2 (27:27):
But no, because with them, if if you believe that
you have this political asset and this political power, why
did they not do it in June?
Speaker 1 (27:36):
Why have they not threatened to do it before?
Speaker 2 (27:39):
I mean, it clearly creates pain for them, but it
creates pain for us, so they this is like, this
is like who who can bleed out faster? Is really
the game we're talking about it? Or who bleeds out faster?
And I think that's why I think it's Iran that
bleeds out faster, because I don't think their world. If
they aren't able to ship oil and gas, their entire
(28:00):
world collapses within a month. I don't think our Look,
does it stink to have to pay four dollars a
gallon of gas as opposed to two dollars and eighty
cents a gallon of gas? I get that, but I
don't think our overall economy is impacted anywhere near as
much as Europe, as China, as many of the Middle
(28:20):
Eastern states.
Speaker 1 (28:21):
All.
Speaker 2 (28:21):
Yeah, but they're not playing They're not They're not trying
to outlast our economy, Clay, They're trying to outlast our
political will. They're trying to outlast the willingness of the
president to subject the American people to high gas prices
or instability in the Middle East or whatever this is
without getting absolutely annihilated in the midterm election, right. I mean,
(28:42):
that's what they're playing. They're not playing like we're richer
than they are, obviously, But I don't think Iran's economy works.
If they don't. If they're not able to ship oil
and gas out of the Strait of Horror Moves for
a month, I think their entire economy collapses. But that
would mean you see saying, because then if they're not
able to ship, no one's able to ship. Correct, I'm
(29:04):
saying that our response to them, in my opinion, should be, Hey,
if you're going to not provide free passage to the
Straight of Horror Moves, then we are putting a US
aircraft carrier at the end of the straight and no
ships are getting out. That would be my response if
I were, They're gonna have a lot of target practice
on that aircraft carrier. But yeah, sure, uh, I mean
(29:25):
we can restrict I mean this, this idea that only
Iran has the ability to control ingress and egress in
the strait of horror moves I just don't buy. We
have continued to allow Iranian ships out, they've continued to
load oil and gas on carg Island. If I were there,
and we truly think that they're going to restrict ingress
and egress, and we'll see what the trans transit looks
(29:47):
like over the next couple of days, I would say,
we're not going to have a rule where Iran ships
can come in and out as they did so desire.
And meanwhile, no other countries are going to be able
to go in and out. I don't think that's a
tenable result. And so then they've been able to do
that up to this point is because we've thought that
they're crazy enough that they would actually blow up another
country's oil tanker if they don't concede, right or if
(30:09):
they don't Yeah, but by the way, what I'm shamed
that they want now is that they get two million
dollars a boat for every boat that goes into the
straight of war moves. Correct, that's so, that's what they're demanding.
And now Trump is saying, we'll split the money. You
know again, that's the most Trump thing ever. Oh yeah,
Trumps said like, hey, if they're gonna charge two million,
we'll take one of that and we'll get you know,
part of the money too. Look, I just think they're
(30:31):
their hand is not as strong because we have been
pretty kind and letting their boats to continue to transit.
I think it's crazy. I think a lot of people
don't even realize this. They've continued to run their oil
and gas facilities like normal while we've been bombing the business.
This is why we don't have the leverage that we've
we've this is why we haven't able to force of concession.
By the way, we went through this with Russia too.
Speaker 1 (30:53):
Oh, we're gonna we're gonna bring Russia. I remember we
were doing the show together. Remember.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
Oh, Russia is gonna be brought to its knees. Oh,
they're going to be kicked out of the international financial system.
Russia can't fight this war for long against Ukraine. Blah blah,
blah bull oil gas, money talks, bs walks. Russia's been
able to continue fighting this war and then some despite
all of the maximum pressure campaign, well because we let
(31:17):
them sell their oil and gas. But so we're not
actually really trying to grab them by the balls. It's
a lot of public posturing, but we couldn't stop Russia
from selling oil and gas to China. By the way,
we let them sell their oil and gas to India,
and then we let India mark it up a little bit.
It's a great business for the Indian people, right, because
(31:38):
they get Russian oil and gas at a discount, they
mark it up a little bit, and then they basically
launder it through the global marketplace. I just I don't
believe that Iran if we say, okay, your oil and
gas isn't getting out either. You gotta remember Russia Clay
were talking pipelines, right, I mean a lot of China's
natural gas comes through overland pipeline, so that's a different right,
(32:00):
So unless we're gonna start blowing up Russia's pipe, by
the way, I think they would. Actually, this is why
crazy blew up uh, this is why your frame blew
up the nord Stream pipeline to try to restrict the
ability of oil and gas, and that was.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
I'm not sure that worked out for us the way
that we had hoped that it would.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
So so you think, well, we'll come back and we'll
continue to take your talkbacks.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
We'll see where we are in two weeks.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
I think in two weeks are going to say negotiations
are going great. Iran, we beat them, we won, We're
gonna keep talking for another sixty days.
Speaker 1 (32:32):
We'll come back to this. I think that's where this
is heading.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
So you think that, But the question is, in the meantime,
is the straight of horror moves open, because we'll find
that thing pretty quickly. I think. I think Iranians are
going to start operating like a toll business in the
straight of horror moves in the meantime. That's what I
think is going to happen, stopping ships. We're just we're
getting basically reparations for the war America started, so pay us.
I don't understand or believe necessarily that Iran hasn't been
(33:00):
doing that in the past, taking uh, you know other
countries that are on the straight play, so they'd be
pissing off a lot of their like it's not actually
their waterway, right, but now they're treating it like their waterway. What,
which is why again I come back to I think
if we actually say we're not going to allow Iranian
oil and gas out either, that that would change in
a hurry, because I just don't that's their only economy
(33:23):
at this point, and they can bear. They have. They
actually have more than just oil. It's twenty percent of GDP.
Speaker 1 (33:29):
It's a lot.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
I mean, I'm not saying it's I think it's like
sixty percent of their exports is oil. But yeah, they
are so inefficient even with the oil and gas that
they produce, that they can't keep electricity on in the country.
Even before we bomb them a ton, they were stopping
kids from going to school because they couldn't afford to
run power and surgees, I know, everything else. Don't underestimate
(33:53):
their ability to suffer, all right, So you guys are
getting sort of both sides of this view.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
So there you go. I mean, and let me just
be very clear.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
I hope Clay is right and that there is a
secret rational group inside of Iran that will make the
concessions we want not admit to them.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
Get a deal going Trump wins, it would be the.
Speaker 2 (34:10):
Biggest international relations slash military strike victory in a very
long time, and it would be incredible.
Speaker 1 (34:19):
I don't think that's how this is going to play out, unfortunately.
I'm optimistic.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
I just think that rationality at some level is going
to play out.
Speaker 1 (34:29):
But we will see it. We'll see what I'm about
to get lit up in the talk back.
Speaker 2 (34:31):
Someone's gonna buck is insane, amazing when the biggest win ever,
it's huge, huge win.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
All right, Fine, hopefully I'm wrong.
Speaker 2 (34:41):
But in the meantime, I've got to tell you, if
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Speaker 3 (35:56):
Preset Clay and Buck on the iHeart as.
Speaker 2 (35:59):
Welcome back in here to Clay Ambuck. We got a
quick turnaround, so we can come back, maybe take some
calls and talkbacks. What do you Thinkla, Is that a
good way to handle because we didn't get any in Really, Yes,
I'm sure that we are deluged right now and I
can see every line ringing, and I'm sure we've gotten
an unbelievable amount of talkbacks. So we'll get into those
for the next hour and hear what you guys think.
(36:19):
What do you think about the Iran cease fire, which
is where things stand right now. And then also I
want to talk to about some immigration stuff, including an effort,
include with a number of GOP members of Congress to
try to get what is an amnesty. It's a straight
up amnesty. Don't listen to anybody who's trying to tell
you otherwise. It's an amnesty bill pass, which shows you
(36:40):
how quickly the GOP will betray the face. I think
Clay some wild stuff about fraud in California that's out
there now. One doctor billing two hundred and seventy million
dollars just in California to medical in fraud.
Speaker 1 (36:56):
We should talk about this stuff
Welcome back in.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
I say back in because it feels like we're constantly
talking and always here, because there is a lot of
hours that we spend.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
With all of you.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
It is the Wednesday edition of the program. And I
will say as a ceasefire has taken roots in the
Middle East, as I speak to you all presently, the
stock market has surged, oil and gas prices have collapsed.
It's almost like if you listen to us and do
(00:31):
not panic, you will end up doing better in your life.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
The S and P five hundred up two.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Point four percent, a huge surge in that marketplace, Dow
up two point seven percent as we are talking twelve
hundred and forty five points at the present day. Needless
to say, days when the stock market goes up over
one thousand points are relatively rare. Days when the stock
market surges like this are not common. The price of
(00:59):
oil and as I speak to all of you, dropping
eighteen dollars down some fifteen percent or so, stock soaring,
oil sinking as a truce, A ceasefire is underway in
the Middle East. Now, buck, as you can well imagine,
we've got some cuts to play for you. But I
(01:21):
saw Pete hegg set this morning saying Iran needs to
notify some of its people via carrier pigeon that they
need to stop firing off drones and missiles. There are
still issues in Lebanon. It's not as if the Middle
East is usually very calm in the first place, so
you are it seems filled with some measure of trepidation
about how long the ceasefire might last. But for the moment,
(01:44):
stock soaring, oil collapsing, and now you can come tap
dance on with some negativity after my one and.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
A half minute positive open there.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Thank you, and I'm glad that we represent both sides
of the pro Trump pro American piece in the Middle
East point of view.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
But a little bit, a little bit of a variation
here on my sense of it.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
First of all, I said yesterday they're gonna just extend
this thing, which is really what this is. This is
an extension. Nothing has been agreed to that is lasting bonding.
I mean, I know you meant ceasefire and you said that,
but this is not a truce. This is not a
long term agreement. This is a we're gonna stop pounding
(02:30):
you from the air and try to talk to you
about some things and see if you will come to
your senses. Now, I view this play very much as
a we'll see situation. But here's the downside, or here's
my negative impulses about some of this. The Iran ten
point deal that they've put forward via intermediaries in Pakistan
(02:54):
is awful. It is unworkable. Yeah, their positions are we
get to keep nukes, we get control and can take
tolls on ships. Now in the Strait of Horn moves,
America promises to stop attacking US, and Israel promises to
stop attacking Hesbela as well as I mean, you go
down this list. Now, I understand this is a, as
(03:18):
Trump says, a workable place to begin negotiations. But here
is the fundamental problem. As I see it, this is
now a race against the clock. This is basically the
timeline that Trump had for the completion of this mission.
And I thought, I said on the show, I think
(03:38):
it'll be done by April first. Okay, it's April eighth.
We aren't bombing them anymore, so pretty darn close. Because
the politics here at home play a large part in
this Clay, I do not see a future in which
Iran renounces its nuclear ambitions agrees to true and people
say intrusive, but I mean, you know, nuclear inspections gives
(04:02):
up its highly enriched uranium. And if anything, I think
the Iranian the Iranian regime that is in place, views
this as a okay, you hit us with your best
shot and we are still standing. I think the Iranians
believe that we for political reasons, and that's not even
really the right term. The American people will not go
(04:23):
along with a sustained ground invasion of Iran, and I
would agree with that sentiment. I might add, so that's
not on the table. The American people do not want
high gas prices, and that means that Republicans are going
to start pressuring Trump if we go back to bombing them.
We have a delay here in the campaign. Does anyone
really I mean, I'll ask you this. Do you think
(04:45):
in two weeks we're going to have a real agreement
with Iran that they can be held to and that
we have faith in and that ends this thing I
have And then what do we do We start bombing
them again?
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Well then they shut the st it removes is a
real choke point, is a real problem.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Sorry, go ahead, No, No, I think The question you're
asking is the one that is the next step here.
How much is this going to hold? And already there's
disputes over what can happen in Lebanon and all these
different aspects of Israeli action because Israel has been very
active in northern Israel southern Lebanon. I think what's going
(05:26):
to end up happening is there will be flash points
on this for probably the next six months between now
and the end of the year.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
And do you mean.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Flash points do you mean things going boom in Iran
or do you mean mean words in the diplomatic I
think things going boom in Iran. I think we'll probably
scramble jets and go hit some more targets at some
point in time to demonstrate that there has to be
some some tacit relationship and agreement.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
We just at the after that, though, is.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
There some Does Iran finally bend the knee and agree
to Trump's terms? Either answer is no. There's fifteen demands
from our side, there's ten demands from their side. And
the two demanding lists are in direct How far apart
is this is like I want a million dollars from
(06:18):
my house, I'll give you five bucks.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
That's where we are.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Here is what I thought was the most interesting about this.
First of all, who was attributed to making the decision
on Iran side? It's the Gayetola. We don't even know
if the Gayetola can talk, we don't know where.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
Is this. I would roll with it. I can pronounce
that one.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Well, the the son of Kamine, the gayetolat.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Little Mo. I'm not sure if he's alive. I'm not
sure if he can speak.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
But what I think he provides Buck is a convenient
repository for this decision making. That makes it such that
whoever is actually making the decision in Iran is able
to say, oh no, no, no, that's not us. If it's
a little bit politically unpopular, that is the Supreme leader.
(07:14):
Even if the Supreme Leader is unable to make decisions, remember,
we still haven't heard his voice. We still haven't seen
a picture of him, we still haven't seen a video
of him. There are just reports that he was significantly injured.
And I want to push you on this a little bit.
I want to push you on this a little bit, okay,
because I actually want your optimism, and I'll be honest
with you I think most of the most of our
people with this right now, they want your like, they
(07:35):
don't want what I'm selling, But I just I can't lie.
I'm I don't think this is a disaster. Certainly in
the market, you're speaking that it's not a disaster right now,
and I think Trump's gonna walk away. But if you're
telling me, if we're looking at what comes out of
this campaign, right what fundamentally we get from this versus
what the Iranians get and what we wanted from the outset,
(07:56):
do you believe at the end, oh, like, make it
the end of this by the end of this year,
has Iran given up the enriched uranium? Has Iran agreed
to give up its nuclear pursuit? And is Iran no
longer in a position to choke us at the straight
offom Moose? Okay, so let's go through the order. They
basically have no air force, they have no navy, They
(08:18):
have very limited ability to engage in any sort of
aggressive act.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
We destroy their military, right their military.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Is done if you take at their word, and I
think this is likely true. Right now, we have satellite
observation on all of their fuel cells, all their uranium
deposits everything that would be used to construct a nuclear bomb,
and if Iran makes any effort to go and try
to retrieve that which appears to be significantly buried under
(08:49):
lots of top soil based on attacks, we would take
action as we see fit. So I think getting to
the uranium and riching it, all those things are going
to be very difficult. So I think we have effectively
neutered Iran's ability to impact in a significant way action
in the Middle East. What I think is the most
significant factor right now is who is making decisions and
(09:11):
can we trust them.
Speaker 1 (09:13):
To what extent do we believe?
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Remember go back in the early days of Venezuela Buck
when Delsi Rodriguez came out and said, oh, they're still
the American infidels. And then she's saying publicly one thing,
but privately she's basically doing whatever we want, and we're
not talking about Venezuela in a significant way. Does someone
have the sway in Iran? I don't care what they
(09:36):
say about publicly in our country. I don't care if
they show up and they throw their fist in the
air and they chant death to America. Privately, are they
being rational? And negotiating with us in a productive way.
And does the person who we are negotiating with, to
your point, Buck, actually have the wherewithal to control action
in Iran? Because it doesn't take much to blow up
(09:58):
one of these fuel tankers. And so if there are
competing factions inside of Iran, to what extent is the
leader able to actually lead and control what people in
the country are doing. We did this, and there's a
very detailed New York Times piece. Take it for what
it's worth, whether you think they believe it or not.
But a lot of it reads like what you would
expect it to read, like taking you inside this. It's
(10:21):
some of those meetings. I read this article too. Sometimes
New York Times articles read like fiction. This to you
and you've been in the rooms, But this read like
an accurate telling of what the debates surrounding this war
would be like. Yes, it sounds like somebody who was
in It sounds to me like somebody who was in
the room told them. Now, whenever someone does that, of course,
they're usually the hero of the narrative. And you know,
(10:43):
you could sort of piece some things together, or they
at least look the most astute. But I think the
New York Times piece largely aligns and I told you
this at the time. It talks about the little the
idea of maybe getting the Kurds involved, which they say
came from the Israelis, which I know from working the
Iraq issue for a year was a complete nonstarter. And
sure enough I was right. But the fact that that
(11:04):
came up, or rather that the reporting is that that
came up in the context of Iran. There were some
pieces here that make me think that this is how
it went down, how their decision making process was laid out.
But Clay, we keep going around that Trump this war
was fought to stop Iran from ever being able to
(11:25):
go nuclear. Now we're being told more that it was
to stop Iran's ballistic missile force. Okay, they're going to
be able to rebuild, that they're going to be able
to count on the oil flow to fund buying from
the Russians, buying from the Chinese, etc. Military hardware to
(11:47):
get them back to where they were. So I know
that we're supposed to believe that the destruction of ballistic
missile capability is like some fantastic victory.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
It's a victory.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
I'm not discounting it. Our military did incredible things. I'm
not encountered that just counting that either. But at the
end of this, do we have either a different regime
or a regime that agrees to the terms with which
we could go forward and say Iran is not a
nuclear threat anymore. I don't think the answer to either
(12:16):
of those questions is yes, And I just have to
be honest about that. I don't think that we're we're
in place with either of those things. If the incentive structure,
as we have talked about on the program, is for
Iran to get nuclear weapons because it strengthens the ability
and people in positions of power to stay there without
external forces being able to remove them as exists in
(12:38):
North Korea, is there anything that could occur that would
lead to Iran not pursuing nuclear weapons. Well, but this
is my concern here, is that we hit them with
everything we could from the air, as they told us,
as Secretary HeiG Sethus told us, and we annihilated them
with everything we could from the air. We got to
(12:58):
a point where it was, well, now we're just going
to blow up up your power plants and your you know,
your water treatment facilities, and everything else. That was what
Trump was talking about. Okay, well, that's that's not a
good thing. Like, that's not something you really want to
do to a country of ninety million people. And if
that's where we are for the next round of punishment,
I don't know that we have a stick big enough,
(13:19):
so to speak, to beat them into submission to give
us what we want at the end of this deal.
I think they're going to say to us, fine, hit
us again, we'll close the straight how long before your elections?
That's my concern, Clay. I think they know what's going
on here. I understand that concern. I think in the
back of their mind every leader in Iran knows that
we can take them out. And I'm working under the
(13:42):
capacity that we believe we have reached for Iran rational
leadership that does have some control over the country.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
We'll see. I don't.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I don't think we do. I don't think I don't
think we have a different government. I don't think we
have different people in charge. I think that that is
that ship has sailed. Here is here is the test
to what extent do any of these oil and tankers
get blown up? Because if they get blown up, then
everyone purely economically is going to say we can't risk
going through the strait of horror moves right now. I
(14:13):
don't think it's a rational act on Iran's leadership's behalf
to blow up oil and gas tankers right now. But
if they do, either they are intransigent, not working with us,
or they just don't have any control over the factions
that are willing to do. If I'm like this, the
head of whatever's left of the IRGC leadership, Clay and
Trump in two weeks blows up my power plants, blows
(14:37):
up truly civilian infrastructure.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
Yeah, I blow up an oil.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
Tanker in the straight of horror moose like, I make
this the whole world's problem real fast.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
So just looking up a.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Bunch of them, you could blow up a bunch of
them and it would cost almost nothing in terms of
the physical assets required to do so. And this is,
my friends, this is a suicide bomber culture we're talking
about here in the Middle least like they're willing to
take a lot of pain to take other people down.
So keep that in mind. You know how the Iranians
used to clear minefields play in the Iaran Iraq War.
(15:09):
They had a special cadre of humans who would run
to save tanks. Yeah, the Martyr Brigades. They would clear
the minefields by walking on them. And that's what we're
dealing with everybody. All right, Sorry, Buck is wompwamp, but
I'll always tell you the truth. I have my concerns.
(15:30):
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Speaker 3 (16:32):
Oh precent your pals Clan Buck on the iHeart as.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
All right, Welcome back into Clay and Buck talking a
lot about the Iran cease fire? What comes next? The
Trump administration declaring victory, the Iranian regime declaring victory. No
surprise there. Let's hear from JD Vance on this one
cut two.
Speaker 4 (16:49):
If the Iranians are willing in good faith to work
with us, I think we can make an agreement. If
they're gonna lie, if they're going to a cheat, if
they're trying to try to prevent even the fragile tree
roofs that we've set up from taking place. Then they're
not going to be happy because what the President has
also shown is that we still have clear military, diplomatic
and maybe most importantly, we have extraordinary economic leverage.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
The President has.
Speaker 4 (17:12):
Told us not to use those tools. He's told us
to come to the negotiating table. But if the Iranians
don't do the exact same thing, they're going to find
out that the President the United States is not one
to mess around. He's impatient, he's impatient.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
To make progress.
Speaker 4 (17:25):
He has told us to negotiating good faith, and I
think if they negotiate in good faith, we will be
able to find a deal. But that's a big iff,
and ultimately it's up to the Iranians how they negotiate.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
I hope they make the right decision.
Speaker 1 (17:36):
There's not going to be a deal. Tell you that
right now. Mark that down.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
There's not going to be a deal that Iran concedes
it's nuclear program and gives away it's some rich uranium.
Hold me to this one team. It's not going to
be a deal. So just get ready for that. I'm curious. Well,
we'll come back. I'll give you a question about this.
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Speaker 3 (18:53):
Truth and having fun. Clay, Travis and Buck Sexton.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
At Welcome Back in Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. By
the Way News, we had both Clay Fuller and Sean
Harris on in the Georgia fourteen Congressional district, that is
North Georgia up near the Tennessee border. Clay Fuller winning
by around twelve or thirteen points. Votes are still being cast,
(19:21):
but he has one to take over Marjorie Taylor Green's seat.
We had both those guys on Clay Fuller and Sean Harris,
and Clay Fuller has won.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
That race.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
Will be back again in November, as it's just a
short period of time to be to be fulfilling.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
All right, we got a couple of talkbacks. I'll get
to those.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
Let me ask you a question, Buck, What if there
is a wink wink, nod nod that Iran is not
going to touch the uranium and we are able to
say publicly, hey, nuclear ambitions in Iran are over, and
Iran is able to say publicly, we didn't give up
our nuclear ambitions. But there is an understanding that due
(20:07):
to American air superiority, Iran doesn't have the ability to
access what they had previously created, and that if they
do attempt to do so, there will be significant consequences,
but it will allow both sides to publicly claim victory
and the end result is one that we feel more
(20:28):
comfortable with than the other. I think that's probably the
most likely outcome here is that Iran says, oh, we
wanted the negotiating table, and America says, oh, we wanted
the negotiating table. And the question is to what extent
is that public statement consistent with private actions? So you
think that we'll de facto get the nuclear concessions from
(20:52):
Iran while they promised they're not going to give us
publicly the nuclear concessions. I think that allows Iran to
save face with the lead leadership.
Speaker 1 (21:01):
I don't think they're worried about saving face, my man.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
I think they think that they've got us on this
straight of hor moose thing and there I think they
took our best shot, and they're looking at us and
they're like, all right, what's next.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
You're gonna nucas? What's next? Now?
Speaker 2 (21:13):
By the way, I know we're not going to do that,
but I'm just saying, from their mentality, what are we
gonna do? Are we gonna start bombing them to get
in two weeks if there's no agreement, you really think
we're gonna do? We're really gonna do that? So here, yes,
I think we will. Here is the problem that I
see with the straight of Horror moves, it's basically cutting
their own throat if they don't allow the oil and
(21:34):
gas to transfer through transit through the straight of Horror moves.
The entire Iranian economy is predicated on being able to
sell oil and gas. One of the craziest things about
this entire military operation is they've continued to load oil
and gas onto Iranian ships and transit them through the
straight of Horror moves. If I think if they are
(21:58):
going to say, hey, we're not going to allow ships
to come through this area, we don't have to allow
Iranian ships out, or we can go in and we
can actually seize the Iranian oil and gas infrastructure. So
I don't see their threat, and by the way, we've
got to talk back on this. I don't see their
threat as viable because they can't exist as an economy
(22:22):
unless they're able to sell oil and gas, and their
pain point. I guess the question is to what extent
is their pain point necessary. I think at some point
in time everyone will just say to Iran and you
were starting to see this happen with the UAE and
other Saudi Arabian area countries, other Gulf countries, they oil
(22:42):
and gas has to flow. And even there are reports
that China was instrumental in getting this fourteen day ceasefire
negotiated because China needs the oil and gas coming out
of Iran. So I don't see a world where Iran
can say we're going to shut down the Strait of
Horror moves and actually be able to do it, because
(23:04):
I don't think there is a global support leave aside
the United States. China has to have this oil and gas.
A lot of other countries that are technically rivals of
the United States, much of Europe, has to have it.
I just don't see a world where they can actually
shut it down. Now we've got a question on this,
so I understand that way. You don't see a world
where they can shut down the straight No, we've been
(23:27):
wor No. I mean there's still ships coming through. I
don't think that they can, and Iranian ships have continued
to come through. I'm saying we can stop Iran ships
from coming through. We can shut off Iran's ability to
make any money at all. And it's a little bit
of clay like you know, can can Secaucus New Jersey
(23:49):
shut down shipping, you know, along its waterways better than
some country that's thousands of miles away.
Speaker 1 (23:57):
I mean, they're they're right there. That's why they have
they know.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
But what I'm saying is we could, if we needed to,
we could put a barricade up and we could say
we're not going to allow any Iranian oil to leave.
We are not going to allow them to access global
markets at all. I think Iran needs oil and gas
money more than we do. And again, this is a
(24:22):
lot of people have talked about this. You know who's
been celebrating the most in the United States over the
war in Iran? Texas oil people. The amount of money
that they are making when it's one hundred dollars a
barrel as opposed to sixty dollars a barrel is through
the roof. And because America has energy and dependence, we
actually as a country benefit to some extent when oil
(24:45):
and gas prices go up now because we are selling
oil and gas on the global market and our businesses
their profits skyrocket. Now individuals when it comes to what
we have to pay on oil and gas, have to
pay more, but a lot of that money stays in
the country, unlike in nineteen ninety one when we had
to go to war in the Middle East. If we
(25:05):
were confident we could stop Iranian Iranian ships from going through,
why wouldn't we just why wouldn't we do that?
Speaker 1 (25:13):
Right now?
Speaker 2 (25:14):
I think we've been allowing those ships out because it
puts more oil and gas on the marketplace. If I
were Trump right now, I would say they don't have
the I don't know why I hadn't said it publicly.
I mean, what's more important shutting down Iran entirely or
putting more oil.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
And gas in the global marketplace?
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Well, I think it leads to the question of how
long do you want to do it? There is a
pain point, right and the pain point is significant in
a mid term election cycle. But Iran the only way
they get any money at all is by having oil
and gas transit. Their ships have been transitting. Their threat
is will hit other country ships, which is why a
(25:52):
lot of other countries have decided we aren't willing to
run through the straight of hoor moves right now and
take the risk, which goes to So if we have
the strong haich you seem to think that we did,
I do, why can't we get them to concede. I
think we have to figure out who we're actually negotiating with.
I think the people who lead Iran are afraid that
if they be if they are seen in Iran as
(26:14):
bending the knee to the United States, then they lose power.
So that's why I think if you read this story,
they said the supreme leader who may be dead and
maybe in a coma, the new one, the Gaya Toola
actually made this decision. If you go read then and
you and you hear like, okay, who made the call
to do this cease fire?
Speaker 1 (26:33):
They are saying the Gayetola did it.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
I think he is right now a fiction that people
in positions that are trying to angle for power in
Iran are using as the guy who's making these deals
because I think they're afraid that if you are seen
as being in a good relationship with the United States
and Israel, it's hard to have power. So we have
to figure out who actually is capable of ruling Iran.
(26:59):
And here there's the day maybe there's not a person.
I hope, I hope what you were saying is true.
I don't I don't see it that way. I think
the Iranians feel like, oh, Wow, we really can just
shut down the Straight and Trump just blinked, and now
we get to make crazy demands and now we go
into months and months of negotiation.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
Why, I ask you, why didn't they shut down the
Straight of Horn moves before? Because we weren't bombing everything
in sight? What do you mean? Okay?
Speaker 2 (27:27):
But no, because with them, if if you believe that
you have this political asset and this political power, why
did they not do it in June?
Speaker 1 (27:36):
Why have they not threatened to do it before?
Speaker 2 (27:39):
I mean, it clearly creates pain for them, but it
creates pain for us, so they this is like, this
is like who who can bleed out faster? Is really
the game we're talking about it? Or who bleeds out faster?
And I think that's why I think it's Iran that
bleeds out faster, because I don't think their world. If
they aren't able to ship oil and gas, their entire
(28:00):
world collapses within a month. I don't think our Look,
does it stink to have to pay four dollars a
gallon of gas as opposed to two dollars and eighty
cents a gallon of gas? I get that, but I
don't think our overall economy is impacted anywhere near as
much as Europe, as China, as many of the Middle
(28:20):
Eastern states.
Speaker 1 (28:21):
All.
Speaker 2 (28:21):
Yeah, but they're not playing They're not They're not trying
to outlast our economy, Clay, They're trying to outlast our
political will. They're trying to outlast the willingness of the
president to subject the American people to high gas prices
or instability in the Middle East or whatever this is
without getting absolutely annihilated in the midterm election, right. I mean,
(28:42):
that's what they're playing. They're not playing like we're richer
than they are, obviously, But I don't think Iran's economy works.
If they don't. If they're not able to ship oil
and gas out of the Strait of Horror Moves for
a month, I think their entire economy collapses. But that
would mean you see saying, because then if they're not
able to ship, no one's able to ship. Correct, I'm
(29:04):
saying that our response to them, in my opinion, should be, Hey,
if you're going to not provide free passage to the
Straight of Horror Moves, then we are putting a US
aircraft carrier at the end of the straight and no
ships are getting out. That would be my response if
I were, They're gonna have a lot of target practice
on that aircraft carrier. But yeah, sure, uh, I mean
(29:25):
we can restrict I mean this, this idea that only
Iran has the ability to control ingress and egress in
the strait of horror moves I just don't buy. We
have continued to allow Iranian ships out, they've continued to
load oil and gas on carg Island. If I were there,
and we truly think that they're going to restrict ingress
and egress, and we'll see what the trans transit looks
(29:47):
like over the next couple of days, I would say,
we're not going to have a rule where Iran ships
can come in and out as they did so desire.
And meanwhile, no other countries are going to be able
to go in and out. I don't think that's a
tenable result. And so then they've been able to do
that up to this point is because we've thought that
they're crazy enough that they would actually blow up another
country's oil tanker if they don't concede, right or if
(30:09):
they don't Yeah, but by the way, what I'm shamed
that they want now is that they get two million
dollars a boat for every boat that goes into the
straight of war moves. Correct, that's so, that's what they're demanding.
And now Trump is saying, we'll split the money. You
know again, that's the most Trump thing ever. Oh yeah,
Trumps said like, hey, if they're gonna charge two million,
we'll take one of that and we'll get you know,
part of the money too. Look, I just think they're
(30:31):
their hand is not as strong because we have been
pretty kind and letting their boats to continue to transit.
I think it's crazy. I think a lot of people
don't even realize this. They've continued to run their oil
and gas facilities like normal while we've been bombing the business.
This is why we don't have the leverage that we've
we've this is why we haven't able to force of concession.
By the way, we went through this with Russia too.
Speaker 1 (30:53):
Oh, we're gonna we're gonna bring Russia. I remember we
were doing the show together. Remember.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
Oh, Russia is gonna be brought to its knees. Oh,
they're going to be kicked out of the international financial system.
Russia can't fight this war for long against Ukraine. Blah blah,
blah bull oil gas, money talks, bs walks. Russia's been
able to continue fighting this war and then some despite
all of the maximum pressure campaign, well because we let
(31:17):
them sell their oil and gas. But so we're not
actually really trying to grab them by the balls. It's
a lot of public posturing, but we couldn't stop Russia
from selling oil and gas to China. By the way,
we let them sell their oil and gas to India,
and then we let India mark it up a little bit.
It's a great business for the Indian people, right, because
(31:38):
they get Russian oil and gas at a discount, they
mark it up a little bit, and then they basically
launder it through the global marketplace. I just I don't
believe that Iran if we say, okay, your oil and
gas isn't getting out either. You gotta remember Russia Clay
were talking pipelines, right, I mean a lot of China's
natural gas comes through overland pipeline, so that's a different right,
(32:00):
So unless we're gonna start blowing up Russia's pipe, by
the way, I think they would. Actually, this is why
crazy blew up uh, this is why your frame blew
up the nord Stream pipeline to try to restrict the
ability of oil and gas, and that was.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
I'm not sure that worked out for us the way
that we had hoped that it would.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
So so you think, well, we'll come back and we'll
continue to take your talkbacks.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
We'll see where we are in two weeks.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
I think in two weeks are going to say negotiations
are going great. Iran, we beat them, we won, We're
gonna keep talking for another sixty days.
Speaker 1 (32:32):
We'll come back to this. I think that's where this
is heading.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
So you think that, But the question is, in the meantime,
is the straight of horror moves open, because we'll find
that thing pretty quickly. I think. I think Iranians are
going to start operating like a toll business in the
straight of horror moves in the meantime. That's what I
think is going to happen, stopping ships. We're just we're
getting basically reparations for the war America started, so pay us.
I don't understand or believe necessarily that Iran hasn't been
(33:00):
doing that in the past, taking uh, you know other
countries that are on the straight play, so they'd be
pissing off a lot of their like it's not actually
their waterway, right, but now they're treating it like their waterway. What,
which is why again I come back to I think
if we actually say we're not going to allow Iranian
oil and gas out either, that that would change in
a hurry, because I just don't that's their only economy
(33:23):
at this point, and they can bear. They have. They
actually have more than just oil. It's twenty percent of GDP.
Speaker 1 (33:29):
It's a lot.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
I mean, I'm not saying it's I think it's like
sixty percent of their exports is oil. But yeah, they
are so inefficient even with the oil and gas that
they produce, that they can't keep electricity on in the country.
Even before we bomb them a ton, they were stopping
kids from going to school because they couldn't afford to
run power and surgees, I know, everything else. Don't underestimate
(33:53):
their ability to suffer, all right, So you guys are
getting sort of both sides of this view.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
So there you go. I mean, and let me just
be very clear.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
I hope Clay is right and that there is a
secret rational group inside of Iran that will make the
concessions we want not admit to them.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
Get a deal going Trump wins, it would be the.
Speaker 2 (34:10):
Biggest international relations slash military strike victory in a very
long time, and it would be incredible.
Speaker 1 (34:19):
I don't think that's how this is going to play out, unfortunately.
I'm optimistic.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
I just think that rationality at some level is going
to play out.
Speaker 1 (34:29):
But we will see it. We'll see what I'm about
to get lit up in the talk back.
Speaker 2 (34:31):
Someone's gonna buck is insane, amazing when the biggest win ever,
it's huge, huge win.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
All right, Fine, hopefully I'm wrong.
Speaker 2 (34:41):
But in the meantime, I've got to tell you, if
you need more energy because you've been trying to keep
up with the day to day swings and insanity of
the news cycle, and maybe you're still recovering from a
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Speaker 3 (35:56):
Preset Clay and Buck on the iHeart as.
Speaker 2 (35:59):
Welcome back in here to Clay Ambuck. We got a
quick turnaround, so we can come back, maybe take some
calls and talkbacks. What do you Thinkla, Is that a
good way to handle because we didn't get any in Really, Yes,
I'm sure that we are deluged right now and I
can see every line ringing, and I'm sure we've gotten
an unbelievable amount of talkbacks. So we'll get into those
for the next hour and hear what you guys think.
(36:19):
What do you think about the Iran cease fire, which
is where things stand right now. And then also I
want to talk to about some immigration stuff, including an effort,
include with a number of GOP members of Congress to
try to get what is an amnesty. It's a straight
up amnesty. Don't listen to anybody who's trying to tell
you otherwise. It's an amnesty bill pass, which shows you
(36:40):
how quickly the GOP will betray the face. I think
Clay some wild stuff about fraud in California that's out
there now. One doctor billing two hundred and seventy million
dollars just in California to medical in fraud.
Speaker 1 (36:56):
We should talk about this stuff
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