Colin’s best takes of the week!
He gives props to Sean McVay for a brilliant coaching job that has the Rams punching above their weight (2:00), and lists several reasons why Eagles fans shouldn’t panic despite their recent losing streak (7:00).
John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” joins Colin to break down the Bills demolition of the Dallas Cowboys and why the Bills could be primed for a deep playoff run (14:00).
Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the Week 16 NFL slate!
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)
19:30 - Steelers vs. Bengals
20:45 - Cowboys vs. Broncos
22:00 - Pats vs. Broncos
24:00 - Ravens vs. 49ers
27:00 - Bucs vs. Jags
29:00 - Bears vs. Cardinals
34:00 - Seahawks vs. Titans
Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #Herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
This week on Prime Cuts, Baby Chad Millman, Sharper Square,
John Middlecuff on the Buffalo Bill's resurgence, My top takes
the week. How about them Rams? There were two games
this week on the docket that I really really liked.
One of them I talked about this on FS. One
(00:26):
was the Rams tonight minus four, three and a half
against Derek Carr and the Saints. McVeigh in a short
week has won six of seven games. Offensive coaches on
a short week can be really really good against defensive coaches.
They can do little tweaks with their quarterback and their offense.
(00:46):
An offensive culture, I think always has a bit of
an advantage on a short week, especially if you're playing
at home. And McVeigh is six and one in these
spots now seven and one. And also I don't think
Dennis Allen's a very good coach. The last two weeks
I've watched mcy work Ron rivera of the Commanders. Commanders
late game situational football was embarrassing, and I thought Dennis
(01:08):
Allen's halftime move right before half was a swing and
a miss. So you know, I go on and on
about this, but May is having an unbelievable year. If
you watch all the motions and all the shifting and
all the manipulation on virtually every play, Saints lineup. They
don't use motion. I mean most of the time they
(01:28):
don't use motion. They line up. They don't put the
defense in conflict. It's much easier for a defense to
just line up, see what you're doing, and go. The
Rams are using shifts and motions and these multiple sets
where you've got three receivers, jumbo sets. It puts a
lot of conflict and a lot of decision making. Throw
(01:51):
in some motion. The Niners with Kyle Shanahan lead the
league in motion, along with Miami with an offensive coach,
and the Rams that offensive coach. It is checkers and
chess and McVeagh, McDaniel, Andy Reid, Shanahan. It's a different
looking sport. I mean it's a different looking sport. So
(02:12):
and mcveay's had his way two and oh against defensive
coach Pete Carroll one to oh against Ron Rivera want
to know, against Dennis Allen, two and oh against Arizona.
He lost earlier in the year when the Rams were
kind of beat up to Mike Tomlin, the Steelers but
since Thanksgiving, Matt Stafford fourteen touchdowns, one pick and a
passer rating of over one fourteen. And I think, you know,
(02:34):
one of the things that jumps out to me is
that mcvah and less Need the GM really work hand
in hand, and that's really really important. I remember when
Jim Harball was with the Niners with Trent and Balkey,
and they couldn't stand each other. And there's some situations
in the NFL where the gms and the coaches aren't close.
Mickey Loomis and Sean Payton when they were in New
Orleans were best friends. Really matters. But you know, less
(02:57):
Need and mc mcvay's got a great sense for offense.
They find Puka Nakua in the fifth round, and they
also go, get here's a prime example of an offensive culture.
So dots and the interior offensive lineman for the Rams,
they pick him up in a trade on the interior
the online from the Steelers. Steelers weren't going to start
(03:19):
Dotson the guard. He's now the fourth highest redded guard
in the NFL with Sean McVay. Steelers weren't going to
start him. So and I go on and on about this,
but McVeigh is the preparation, the in game management, and
I think a lot of times that the media beats
up on coaches for some clock stuff late in games.
(03:41):
It's fast moving, it's fluid. Nobody's perfect. But I'll take
the offensive guys over the defensive guys every time. And
I also think one of the advantages the Rams have
because they don't have good special teams. They're not a
super Bowl team in my opinion. They're a team that
can go. They'll probably end up getting into the playoffs
and facing Detroit in Detroit, and I would probably take
(04:03):
the Lions. They have more experience, they have a dominant
offensive line. Jared Goff is very good at home when
he gets on his spot and not rushed, and the
Rams pass rush can be a little hit and miss.
Their special teams aren't good, their secondaries Young got torched
over the top a couple of times tonight first half
and second half. That's what Rams games are. But they've
scored at least twenty seven points, I think, in four
(04:24):
straight games. And I thought they should have beaten the Ravens.
It was a go either way game, but we'd seen
other teams in the NFC go out to Baltimore, Detroit
and Seattle and get smoked. The Rams went out there
and went toe to toe with Baltimore, a really good
football team. So I just think you're looking at a
Rams team that has made over the last six weeks.
They are a completely different football team. A lot of
(04:46):
it is on offense. Their special teams weren't good early,
are not good now. Their secondary is okay, it's okay now.
It's the offensive improvement. Guys have gotten healthy. Stafford's getting
time to throw, Kyra and Williams the running back, small
guy but very powerful, shifty, and mcveigh's offense is really
a ball control offense. You know, you think McVeigh, you
(05:07):
know you think these offensive coaches. You know it's big,
over the top plays. It really isn't with McVeigh. He
was at his best when Gurley was in his prime,
and now Williams in his prime. That's really when he's
at his best when he can rely on a fifteen
to eighteen carry running back. And also Cooper Cup's a
big receiver. Puka Nakup is a big receiver. He uses
(05:27):
those highly effectively. So it is all rolling for the Rams.
Now they're hot. It was a coaching mismatch. They get
a scheduling break and they feel like a playoff team.
You know, Philadelphia, the Eagles really remind me of the
Kansas City Chiefs. I still think they're a really good
football team. They've just had a brutal schedule. They can't
catch a break. There's some fatigue. They're not very good
(05:48):
in the back end of their defense, and they find themselves.
They're going to make the playoffs because of Dallas's lost.
They got a break there. They're gonna make the playoffs.
And outside of San Francisco, I think they could win
every single game. I mean, I watched them play the
Rams earlier this year, pushed them around in Los Angeles.
I've watched them play the Cowboys twice. They match up
(06:08):
fine Detroit. If Detroit had to go on the road
to Philadelphia, I'd take Philadelphia Jared Goff on the road cold,
whether or not the same quarterback. So I think Philadelphia's fine.
You know, it's recency biased. They just lost again. They
look cooked. They're not a great team. Kansas City's not
a great team. I mean the Kadarius Tony if they
were a great team, wouldn't get on the field again.
Speaker 3 (06:30):
They need him.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
They need Canarius Tony in Philadelphia. For all the misgivings
about the Eagles, they had this game one. You know,
these have been close games with Buffalo Dallas. They got whacked,
but they won a close game against Dallas. Earlier they
were in a close game against Buffalo. This is a
good football operation. It's a good intense football team, and
(06:53):
I think Philadelphia is gonna be fine. There are teams
in this league. You know, if you have a bad CEO,
the business gets worse over time. You saw that with
Brandon Staley and the Chargers. They got worse every week.
They opened the season nearly beating Miami, looked really interesting,
and then a poorly run business gets bet Washington. The
(07:13):
Commanders with Ron Rivera, they were a viable team seven
weeks ago. They just get worse. It feels like every
week you can see some of these defensive coaches they
feel Jurassic. They're out of touch. You know. Meanwhile, you've
got Shane Steichen taking Gardner Minshew and beating the Steelers.
You've got Sean McVay. I think Sean McVay right now,
(07:36):
week to week is doing the best job of coaching
in the entire league really outplayed the Commanders from the
very beginning. And you just saw a classic, young, smart,
progressive offensive head coach just getting better offensively every week.
It's amazing. He takes a rookie Puka Nakua, he takes
Kyron Williams, who's now like the third best offensive player
in the league behind Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey. Folks,
(07:58):
that's coaching. Coaching is get the most out of your players.
And here in Los Angeles, nobody got less than Brandon Staley,
and nobody gets more than Sean McVay. The job he
has done this year is absolutely remarkable. He is squeezing
every ounce out of a defense that's Aaron Donald and kids,
and an offense which is guys mostly Stafford Cup, Tyler Higbee,
(08:20):
probably Rob Hanstein didn't play today, the right tackle a
little bit out of their prime, and then kids kyn
Williams and Puka Nakua. It is a marvel to watch
the Rams play. And I know I live in Los
Angeles and you're thinking, oh, Colin, you're going overboard. This
team was picked to win five games in Vegas, and
they have an opportunity to win ten. All right, everybody,
(08:48):
welcome in. It's the Colin Coward Podcast. You know who
I am, I hope by this point in my life.
And this is John Middlecoff three and out podcast at
the volume you see him all the time on our
digital stuff accounts and a former NFL scout. We start
with the obvious one. I did like Buffalo to win.
I do think this this league week to week. It
depends on the spot you're in. I think San Francisco
(09:11):
is unique in where their bad game is still good enough,
you know, to go to Cleveland and almost win if
they hit field goals. But most of the teams in
this league have just bad Sundays. They're off a big win,
they're you know, they're This was a spot for Buffalo.
James Cook now is becoming a real part of this offense.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
All of a sudden, Dallas on the road falls behind.
Dack's not the same quarterback behind. Are you surprised, however?
How the Bills ran the ball on the Dallas defense.
It was I don't remember seeing the Dallas defense run
defense that poor for a couple of years.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
To me, one thing that Dallas over the last month,
why a lot of us have been buying in Is
because of their physicality, like just their overall toughness, and
today Buffalo kicked their ass. I mean that was a beatdown.
And I think I said last week when we watched
Buffalo pull that crazy game out against Kansas City, it's
(10:08):
hard to take them seriously when all their games are
like that. They were like the better version of the Chargers.
They just found a way to win some of them.
But today you gotta give them their ceiling. I mean,
they have a couple wins this year that Miami win
early in the season. Miami's pretty good. That game against
Dallas today, like their ceiling is pretty high. When they're
on obviously playing at home, the division is still open,
(10:29):
like the division is not set. Miami schedule is very hard.
They played Dallas, they play the Ravens, then they finished
with Buffalo. You look at buffalo schedule, at the Chargers,
who mailed that thing in the Pats, and then they finished,
like we said, with Miami. Listen, they've kind of reeled
me back in because today was as much about Josh
Allen just going Lebron James or Steph Curry. It was
(10:51):
more the defense annihilated McCarthy's offense. And like you said,
the run game. What has Buffalo always lacked. It's they've
never had a run back beside Josh, Well, if you
can get a guy, you don't need him to get
one hundred and eighty yards every game. But if you
can rely on an individual to be one hundred yard
a game guy in cold weather games, hard not to
like Buffalo and look at him a little differently after
(11:13):
the last sixty minutes, right right, you know.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
I was thinking about the Steeler teams with Tomlin when
Ben was in his prime. Is that and they had like,
you know, a lavian bell, And that's what Buffalo reminds
me of. They didn't win, you know, they got a
Super Bowl, no question, a couple with Ben. But this
is what Buffalo reminds me. A defensive coach, a defensive
culture with a star quarterback that's about seventy percent of
(11:38):
the offense. And they when they had the star running
back kind of in his prime as an energy, a twitchy,
energy player. There's always Pittsburgh always had a star receiver
on the outside. They draft and developed receivers better than Buffalo.
But this is what this is really what they remind
me of. This is a big Ben's Steeler team with
(12:00):
a defensive coach, defensive culture that has enough offensive pieces
to win. And I when I watch them today, I'm like,
not everybody peaks at the right time. Rams are a
totally different team than six weeks ago. Don't even look
like the same team. I mean, that's a dangerous team.
Now they're blowing people out. So I do you buy
(12:22):
my bills? Look like a Steeler comp Ben Josh Allen
defensive coach where they're very, very energized running back.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Yeah, don't hate it at all. And like the Pittsburgh
they're comfortable playing outside.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
Right.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
That's and look at the AFC. It's hard to know
how the seeding is gonna shake out, but they would
be comfortable. We've seen them go on the road in
Kansas City and play well, go on the road in
Baltimore and play yeah, right, Cleveland problem, Miami, no problem,
they won't. They view Miami as an inferior team. Right,
So you go listen if this team gets in there
(12:55):
and they have a chance to run the table and
get to eleven and six. I mean a couple of
weeks ago, it fell like the building was on fire.
And this is where you got to give McDermott and
Josh and some of the guys internally some credit. They
handled it. They kept you know, kind of the train
on the tracks a little lucky. However, you want to
look at last week it played out they won the game,
and today they beat the living shit out of the Cowboys.
(13:16):
And that was Listen, a lot of people were betting
on the Bills. It's another thing to be up thirty
to three, and the Cowboys struggled to get over one
hundred yards of offense with five minutes left to go
in the game. I don't think anyone saw that. And
that's kind of a rough reflection on Dallas that, you know,
the Eagles, obviously, the story today changed. The defensive coordinators,
guys are sick, they're working through some stuff. But how's
(13:38):
that team going to go on the road and beat
the Niners? Because you want to take Dallas seriously as
this NFC contender, this team to go to the Super Bowl,
and then you watch a game like today, you're.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
Like, how does that happen? Chad Millman Sharper Square, I'm
kind of on a heater. I don't want to brag
about it.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
Oh yeah, how much of a heater?
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Four straight winning weeks four and one. Last week I
had a little bit of an early Denver Bronco Sean Payton,
Russell Wilson September slump. But shit is rolling downhill now.
I'm like McVeigh and Stafford and Puka Nakua.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
Here's the thing. No matter how successful you are and
whatever field you're in, yeah, when you're winning bets, it
just like the whole day is brighter. And I say
that like it just it doesn't matter how much you're
wagering on it. You just feel good. Last week, we
(14:33):
do our podcast on Sunday nights at seven point thirty.
Normally I am biting fingernails and sweating until seven twenty
nine because I don't know how our day is going
to end because of all the games that matter so much.
Last week we were so locked in at seven o'clock,
I was doing dishes because like it was like I
was done, it was over, and it just it felt lovely.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
So I'm gonna take the Steelers plus two at the
Bengals Pittsburgh. That's a second look at a backup quarterback.
They're a desperate team. Veteran coach. Great as an underdog.
They are a cornered animal. Steelers plus two sharper square.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
Totally sharp. This was a two and a half. It
got bumped down. Look, you have a couple of advantages.
One no Jamar Chase. Two buying or selling very high
on the Bengals, buying very low on the Steelers. Three
no Dj Reader. And that is a huge deal in
the middle of the defensive line for the Bengals. Not
only is he great against the run, he's phenomenal against
(15:34):
the past. So you're really going to be limiting your
pass rush capabilities against Mason Rudolph. And don't think like,
all right, we're going from Kenny Pikett to Mitch Trubisky
to Mason Rudolph. He's been all the same. They're all
the same, They're the same quarterback. And then you just
mentioned the most important thing. Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as
a dog, most profitable coach the past twenty years. Mike
(15:56):
Tomlin as a dog at home, Mike Tomlin as a
dog in the division, Mike Tomlin as a dog late
in the year, Mike Tomlin as a dog off a
loss of more than seven like every category. It starts
at sixty percent and gets up to ninety percent. No
joke against the spread. So yes, the wise guys, they're
going to be on the steers.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
I'm not getting the best number at Pickham. I thought
it was one of the bets of the year. I'll
take Dallas plus one and a half of the Dolphins.
I have a theory very good teams who are physically
humiliated on big TV games come back the following week.
It's not just losing, it's being humiliated, physically pushed around.
And Dallas is a physical team. Miami's not.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
Now.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
I do think they generate since Week five of very
nice pass for us. That's a Fangio defense. But I
think Dallas has something to prove. I think they were embarrassed.
I think they're a good football team. I'm going to
take Dallas to win by about a touchdown plus one
and a half here Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (16:53):
Yeah, the wise guys are on the Cowboys. This opened
it too. It's been bet down. There's places where it's
one you mentioned pick him as well, like it would
not surprise me and some of the rumblings I've heard
in the market from professional betters. If Dallas ended up
as the favorite in this game. So I will say
it's very important you get Dallas as an underdog if
(17:14):
you like them, because the trends start to work against
you if they become the favorite in terms of covering.
So you want to get them at the plus number.
But for all the reasons you said like, there are
a lot of trends that will back up the idea
that when you are a team that has been blown
out and then you are going on the road again
as an underdog, you are the team that people should
(17:34):
be backing. So in agreement so far, two for two
Kyle Cowhert.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
The number has been bumped up. All of our odds
provided by Draft Kings. I'm talking to Chad Milman CCO
Action Network Patriots plus seven at the Broncos. Whether could
be crappy? Seven's a lot of points, Denver, can Nicholan
dime you? Bailey Zappi is okay, He's not great. But
my takeaway is this is a low scoring, ugly, crappy
weather game. At six, I would probably stay away. At seven,
(18:02):
I would take New England. That's a lot of points
in lousy weather. We've had huge rain through southern California.
It's all moving into the mountains Denver, Colorado over the
next two to three days. Patriots plus seven sharper square.
Speaker 3 (18:16):
Sharp ish, Like, there's a lot better games on the board.
There's not a huge edge with the Patriots at plus seven.
The challenge for this game is that the Broncos prior
to last week had been living off of turnover. Yes,
that's how they were winning these games. Right, stuff always
(18:38):
evens out, It always evens out, except they're playing Bailey Zape.
So what is the formula for winning for the Broncos.
They're playing bad quarterbacks and getting turnovers. So what are
they getting they're getting I would argue Bailey Zapi is
not a good quarterback in bad weather, in altitude, in
(18:58):
a hostile situation. This is Taylor made to be a
turnover masterpiece for the Denver Broncos. Look at what happened
last week with the Chiefs, Right, the Patriots were in
position to keep that game close. They come out of
the locker room. Bailey Zappy second throw he's rolling out,
(19:18):
throws it directly to a Chiefs defensive back, like doesn't
even There's not even a Patriots receiver there. And that
is going to happen two or three times in a game,
and a couple of those times, at least one of
those times, the Broncos are going to catch the ball,
and that's going to be the way the game changes.
I would not be comfortable betting the Patriots in the spot.
I would bet the under though.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
All Right, one more dog Ravens plus five and a
half at the Niners. They're a bit beat up, but
Harbaugh's an underdog. NFC teams facing for the first time
Lamar Jackson. Now, the Niners have excellent linebackers, Twitchy Fred Warner.
They should be able to be more than competent against Lamar.
But if you've never faced and you don't have anybody
(20:01):
in practice to duplicate it, it can be an avalanche.
Five and a half is a silly number. This is
a very close, physical game, hard to run on the Ravens.
I'm taking the points all day here. I think it's
a good game. I like the Niners. Five and a
half seems almost disrespectful. Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (20:16):
Yeah, so the wise guys are on the Ravens here.
I will say I'm conflicted. I'm conflicted because a I've
got a decent sized bed on Christian McCaffrey at twenty
five to one to win the MVP. And let's face it,
this is the mv people, right, you got Brock Purdy
at about minus two hundred, you got Lamar Jackson at
about three to one, and depending on the book, you've
(20:39):
got Christian McCaffrey is the third shortest odds or Dak
Prescott or Dak Prescott's third shortest, and McCaffrey is four shortest.
So in my heart of hearts, what I'm hoping for
is Christian McCaffrey is dominant and that the Niners win
the game, and that the next two weeks it's just
a coronation for Christian McCaffrey, and I win my Christian
(21:00):
McCaffrey twenty five to one MVP bet. The problem is
that everything you just said, Lamar Jackson against the NFC,
that's not a sort of quirky to take sixteen and
one anomaly. It's because there's nobody like Lamar Jackson that
these NFC teams can prepare when they are playing him
number two. There are like some concerns. I haven't seen
(21:22):
the injury reports from today, but look, i'msted and Hargrave
on the defensive line for the Niners when they were
missing last week, the Cardinals gained nearly four hundred yards, right,
and they kept it close. So, and we also don't
know about Leonore is he going to be playing in
the defensive backfield. When he started to play that defensive
backfield was much better. So I do think there are
some concerns. But I generally think the wise guys are
(21:45):
looking at this and saying, the public is so high
in the Niners. And there are reasons to be high
in the Niners. Right. They are undefeated when Deebo Samuel
and Trent Williams are playing, and they are beating teams
by double digits, they are a legit team. I do
believe the Niners will win the Super Bowl, and I
do believe we will look back on this team and
think it is historically great for the past generation. With
(22:06):
the combination of Kyle Shanahan. Who you think this? I
think this. A lot of people who cover football think this.
He's a brilliant coach who has had bad injury luck
and not exactly the perfect people for what is an
incredible system. And I think he has that. He's had
luck on his side for health. But I think this
week the Ravens are probably going to be the sharp side.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
All right, Tampa Bay, let's go to some favorites minus
one and a half. C J. Bethard probably plays Jacksonville's
in a funk. Trevor Lawrence is banged up. I don't
think he's been healthy in three weeks. We have to
be honest about this. Baker Mayfield, with weapons and reasonable protections,
the best quarterback in his division. He plays with a
(22:47):
great deal of confidence and emotion. I think he feels
really good right now. Todd Bowles is letting him kind
of control the offense. I know they're a favorite. I
tend to like dogs, but CJ. Bethard is an average,
average backup. I'm gonna take the Buck Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (23:03):
No real consensus on what side is the right side here.
The Bucks were two and a half point underdogs when
this game opened. Before we have the insight on Trevor Lawrence,
I will say what's interesting here. Baker Mayfield no joke.
He was elite against the Green Bay Packers, like I think.
(23:25):
He was twenty one of twenty eight north of three
hundred yards, four touchdowns and all season long, the wise
guys have been backing the Bucks, and the Bucks have
been one of those teams where for three quarters they're amazing,
but there'll be four or five drives in the game
where Mike Evans drops a ball or Baker throws a pick,
(23:47):
and like it just puts the game a little bit
out of reach for them. But they've generally played really,
really well. So I can't fault you for liking Baker
in this spot. It's a scary spot because you're also
backing Baker after he was just as good as he's
ever been. I know, but we see j Bether. Yeah,
you're taking a short home favorite.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
All right, let's go to games. I want you to
talk me into so. I have two rules in life.
Number one, don't do meth no winners. Number two, always
take a team favored by four because the odds makers
are telling you, we'd rather do three. That's what we
(24:29):
want to do. We can't. This team's better Rams tonight.
They're just better than the Saints. It'll be a coaching mismatch.
Now it's down at three and a half, but at four,
I thought it was a great bet. Bears minus four
to four and a half. I have been betting best
quarterback in games. But I think ibra Flus is coaching
for his job. I don't think Arizona's guy's coaching for
a job. I think Justin Field is playing for his job. Oh,
(24:53):
this is a this is a big game, a Dome
team going to crappy weather. It'll be it won't be
a blizzard. The weather is kind of unseasonably mild in
the Midwest. But I think the urgency and intensity here.
Also remember last year how teams after they played the Niners,
like all lost. We're not tracking it this year as much,
(25:16):
and the numbers aren't the same, but when you play,
when you play San Francisco, there are repercussions. They're a
really physical team. I think Arizona played spirited football. It's
a really bad roster. The Bears aren't a bad roster.
I want to take Chicago Sharper square a square.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
The wise guys are on the Cardinals. The game was
at four and a half, it got that down to four.
I'd actually take it one step further. I don't think
ebra Fluis is playing for his job. I think he's
auditioning for his next coordinator job. I think Justin Fields
is auditioning for the next team he's going to play on.
I think that as a Bears fan, we saw what
(25:55):
we saw last week against the Browns in that second
half where just Fields was like seven of nineteen for
sixty yards, and that offense was not able to execute,
And at some point that's on the quarterback and his
inability to find the right receivers and so, and on
the coach for coaching a defense that gave up the
(26:17):
game to Joe Flacco and had a ten point lead.
There's a stat that we had that we were talking
about on the Favorites podcast. The Bears, I think this season,
or of only the last two seasons, have had ten
point leads in the fourth quarter six times. They're three
and three. Everybody else in the league the past two
seasons something like ninety three and one. Literally, it's like
(26:39):
a ninety three percent win rate. So there's a lot
of issues with that Bears team. I think that what
we got in the Cardinals is a team that is
just always going to be undervalued. And I don't think
if you look at the market, there's going to be
any professional better who says, oh yeah, I'm comfortable betting
the Bears is more than a field goal favorite, which
is why the line moved down. Also, don't get Kyler
(27:01):
Murray against the spread on the road fifteen and five.
So you're talking about a guy who was very good
at covering the spread, and by the way, he also
covered it last weekend that number was bouncing around. So
I like what. I like what Kyler Murray can do here?
All right?
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Finally, dumpster dive, what's something that I would probably be
appalled with, but you think is pretty tasty? Mean you
all say this. I thought about Eagles minus twelve, they're
bound to win.
Speaker 3 (27:32):
Yeah, I think look in any other scenario, you're looking
at Raiders plus ten against the Chiefs, You're looking at
Giants plus twelve against the Eagles. I'm not going to
ask you to do those things. I'm not going to
do those things this week. I think there's a lot
of wonkingition in those games, and I think professional betters
(27:52):
are sort of divided on really betting those numbers. They're
not really looking to do it. And I interest you
in the Atlanta Falcons minus one.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
Yeah, but by the way MacIntyre's on this, he's like,
that's the sharp side this week it is.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
I mean, look that number. I bet Atlanta at plus
two and a half, and I know what I said.
I said, you got to be wary of those games
that bounce from the one side as the underdog is
now the favorite. But the Colts are really kind of frauds.
And I don't like Shane Steichen. He should be getting
votes for Coach of the Year what he has done
with that team, what he has done with Gardner Minshew,
(28:32):
who I think had won two games as a starter
before this season, Like he has put them in a position.
But also you've got to think about the teams they've
beaten during the streak that they've been on have not
been very good. And now, if you want to talk
about a coach who is coaching for his job, you're
talking about Arthur Smith, and he's putting Taylor Heineke back
(28:53):
in there. Also, because the Colts defense is just trash,
like they can't really stop the run. They were good
before Grover Stewart on his ped suspension, they haven't been
good since they're in the middle of transitioning that defense.
It's just not a very good defense, so I think.
And also the Falcons offensive line, which was really injured.
They had many players who were out or questionable heading
(29:14):
into the game against the Panthers back at home on turf,
Arthur Smith is gonna have to be as creative as
he possibly can to keep this team in the hunt.
I like the Falcons here. There's one more that I like,
probably not worth your time. It's a corner TV game.
Are you ready? Tennessee Titans plus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Yeah, Well, the way Seattle won, people fall in love
with their They really have some really fun young athletes.
But vayble at home, they're getting what three? What is
it now?
Speaker 3 (29:48):
Two and a half? Did it move to three? I
haven't even noticed did it?
Speaker 2 (29:52):
It may have moved to three.
Speaker 3 (29:53):
I'm checking right now. If it did, all the better
then go get go get that, really, because that's that's
the game that the wise guys love. And I know
it sounds they like.
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Tennessee plus two and a half. That's the that's they
love it, love it?
Speaker 3 (30:12):
Why explain love so on the team that just had
the dramatic win in prime time by the team that
just had the devastating loss. Mike Vrabel as an underdog.
He's twenty six and twenty eight straight up as an underdog,
(30:32):
right like, this is a guy who just wins when
he is counted out and his team is not supposed
to win, let alone in the amount of time that
he covers as an underdog. Him and Tomlin are the
two guys that wise guys love to cover. They love
to cover in these exact spots, like to bet on
in these exact spots. So yeah, the wise guys are
(30:54):
digging themselves. Some Tennessee Titans.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
Chad Millman, Happy Holiday, CCO Action Network All lads provided
by Draft King. Great talking to you, buddy.
Speaker 3 (31:03):
Great seeing you too, brother. Happy Holidays to you and
the entire crew.
Speaker 1 (31:08):
The volume
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
This week on Prime Cuts, Baby Chad Millman, Sharper Square,
John Middlecuff on the Buffalo Bill's resurgence, My top takes
the week. How about them Rams? There were two games
this week on the docket that I really really liked.
One of them I talked about this on FS. One
(00:26):
was the Rams tonight minus four, three and a half
against Derek Carr and the Saints. McVeigh in a short
week has won six of seven games. Offensive coaches on
a short week can be really really good against defensive coaches.
They can do little tweaks with their quarterback and their offense.
(00:46):
An offensive culture, I think always has a bit of
an advantage on a short week, especially if you're playing
at home. And McVeigh is six and one in these
spots now seven and one. And also I don't think
Dennis Allen's a very good coach. The last two weeks
I've watched mcy work Ron rivera of the Commanders. Commanders
late game situational football was embarrassing, and I thought Dennis
(01:08):
Allen's halftime move right before half was a swing and
a miss. So you know, I go on and on
about this, but May is having an unbelievable year. If
you watch all the motions and all the shifting and
all the manipulation on virtually every play, Saints lineup. They
don't use motion. I mean most of the time they
(01:28):
don't use motion. They line up. They don't put the
defense in conflict. It's much easier for a defense to
just line up, see what you're doing, and go. The
Rams are using shifts and motions and these multiple sets
where you've got three receivers, jumbo sets. It puts a
lot of conflict and a lot of decision making. Throw
(01:51):
in some motion. The Niners with Kyle Shanahan lead the
league in motion, along with Miami with an offensive coach,
and the Rams that offensive coach. It is checkers and
chess and McVeagh, McDaniel, Andy Reid, Shanahan. It's a different
looking sport. I mean it's a different looking sport. So
(02:12):
and mcveay's had his way two and oh against defensive
coach Pete Carroll one to oh against Ron Rivera want
to know, against Dennis Allen, two and oh against Arizona.
He lost earlier in the year when the Rams were
kind of beat up to Mike Tomlin, the Steelers but
since Thanksgiving, Matt Stafford fourteen touchdowns, one pick and a
passer rating of over one fourteen. And I think, you know,
(02:34):
one of the things that jumps out to me is
that mcvah and less Need the GM really work hand
in hand, and that's really really important. I remember when
Jim Harball was with the Niners with Trent and Balkey,
and they couldn't stand each other. And there's some situations
in the NFL where the gms and the coaches aren't close.
Mickey Loomis and Sean Payton when they were in New
Orleans were best friends. Really matters. But you know, less
(02:57):
Need and mc mcvay's got a great sense for offense.
They find Puka Nakua in the fifth round, and they
also go, get here's a prime example of an offensive culture.
So dots and the interior offensive lineman for the Rams,
they pick him up in a trade on the interior
the online from the Steelers. Steelers weren't going to start
(03:19):
Dotson the guard. He's now the fourth highest redded guard
in the NFL with Sean McVay. Steelers weren't going to
start him. So and I go on and on about this,
but McVeigh is the preparation, the in game management, and
I think a lot of times that the media beats
up on coaches for some clock stuff late in games.
(03:41):
It's fast moving, it's fluid. Nobody's perfect. But I'll take
the offensive guys over the defensive guys every time. And
I also think one of the advantages the Rams have
because they don't have good special teams. They're not a
super Bowl team in my opinion. They're a team that
can go. They'll probably end up getting into the playoffs
and facing Detroit in Detroit, and I would probably take
(04:03):
the Lions. They have more experience, they have a dominant
offensive line. Jared Goff is very good at home when
he gets on his spot and not rushed, and the
Rams pass rush can be a little hit and miss.
Their special teams aren't good, their secondaries Young got torched
over the top a couple of times tonight first half
and second half. That's what Rams games are. But they've
scored at least twenty seven points, I think, in four
(04:24):
straight games. And I thought they should have beaten the Ravens.
It was a go either way game, but we'd seen
other teams in the NFC go out to Baltimore, Detroit
and Seattle and get smoked. The Rams went out there
and went toe to toe with Baltimore, a really good
football team. So I just think you're looking at a
Rams team that has made over the last six weeks.
They are a completely different football team. A lot of
(04:46):
it is on offense. Their special teams weren't good early,
are not good now. Their secondary is okay, it's okay now.
It's the offensive improvement. Guys have gotten healthy. Stafford's getting
time to throw, Kyra and Williams the running back, small
guy but very powerful, shifty, and mcveigh's offense is really
a ball control offense. You know, you think McVeigh, you
(05:07):
know you think these offensive coaches. You know it's big,
over the top plays. It really isn't with McVeigh. He
was at his best when Gurley was in his prime,
and now Williams in his prime. That's really when he's
at his best when he can rely on a fifteen
to eighteen carry running back. And also Cooper Cup's a
big receiver. Puka Nakup is a big receiver. He uses
(05:27):
those highly effectively. So it is all rolling for the Rams.
Now they're hot. It was a coaching mismatch. They get
a scheduling break and they feel like a playoff team.
You know, Philadelphia, the Eagles really remind me of the
Kansas City Chiefs. I still think they're a really good
football team. They've just had a brutal schedule. They can't
catch a break. There's some fatigue. They're not very good
(05:48):
in the back end of their defense, and they find themselves.
They're going to make the playoffs because of Dallas's lost.
They got a break there. They're gonna make the playoffs.
And outside of San Francisco, I think they could win
every single game. I mean, I watched them play the
Rams earlier this year, pushed them around in Los Angeles.
I've watched them play the Cowboys twice. They match up
(06:08):
fine Detroit. If Detroit had to go on the road
to Philadelphia, I'd take Philadelphia Jared Goff on the road cold,
whether or not the same quarterback. So I think Philadelphia's fine.
You know, it's recency biased. They just lost again. They
look cooked. They're not a great team. Kansas City's not
a great team. I mean the Kadarius Tony if they
were a great team, wouldn't get on the field again.
Speaker 3 (06:30):
They need him.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
They need Canarius Tony in Philadelphia. For all the misgivings
about the Eagles, they had this game one. You know,
these have been close games with Buffalo Dallas. They got whacked,
but they won a close game against Dallas. Earlier they
were in a close game against Buffalo. This is a
good football operation. It's a good intense football team, and
(06:53):
I think Philadelphia is gonna be fine. There are teams
in this league. You know, if you have a bad CEO,
the business gets worse over time. You saw that with
Brandon Staley and the Chargers. They got worse every week.
They opened the season nearly beating Miami, looked really interesting,
and then a poorly run business gets bet Washington. The
(07:13):
Commanders with Ron Rivera, they were a viable team seven
weeks ago. They just get worse. It feels like every
week you can see some of these defensive coaches they
feel Jurassic. They're out of touch. You know. Meanwhile, you've
got Shane Steichen taking Gardner Minshew and beating the Steelers.
You've got Sean McVay. I think Sean McVay right now,
(07:36):
week to week is doing the best job of coaching
in the entire league really outplayed the Commanders from the
very beginning. And you just saw a classic, young, smart,
progressive offensive head coach just getting better offensively every week.
It's amazing. He takes a rookie Puka Nakua, he takes
Kyron Williams, who's now like the third best offensive player
in the league behind Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey. Folks,
(07:58):
that's coaching. Coaching is get the most out of your players.
And here in Los Angeles, nobody got less than Brandon Staley,
and nobody gets more than Sean McVay. The job he
has done this year is absolutely remarkable. He is squeezing
every ounce out of a defense that's Aaron Donald and kids,
and an offense which is guys mostly Stafford Cup, Tyler Higbee,
(08:20):
probably Rob Hanstein didn't play today, the right tackle a
little bit out of their prime, and then kids kyn
Williams and Puka Nakua. It is a marvel to watch
the Rams play. And I know I live in Los
Angeles and you're thinking, oh, Colin, you're going overboard. This
team was picked to win five games in Vegas, and
they have an opportunity to win ten. All right, everybody,
(08:48):
welcome in. It's the Colin Coward Podcast. You know who
I am, I hope by this point in my life.
And this is John Middlecoff three and out podcast at
the volume you see him all the time on our
digital stuff accounts and a former NFL scout. We start
with the obvious one. I did like Buffalo to win.
I do think this this league week to week. It
depends on the spot you're in. I think San Francisco
(09:11):
is unique in where their bad game is still good enough,
you know, to go to Cleveland and almost win if
they hit field goals. But most of the teams in
this league have just bad Sundays. They're off a big win,
they're you know, they're This was a spot for Buffalo.
James Cook now is becoming a real part of this offense.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
All of a sudden, Dallas on the road falls behind.
Dack's not the same quarterback behind. Are you surprised, however?
How the Bills ran the ball on the Dallas defense.
It was I don't remember seeing the Dallas defense run
defense that poor for a couple of years.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
To me, one thing that Dallas over the last month,
why a lot of us have been buying in Is
because of their physicality, like just their overall toughness, and
today Buffalo kicked their ass. I mean that was a beatdown.
And I think I said last week when we watched
Buffalo pull that crazy game out against Kansas City, it's
(10:08):
hard to take them seriously when all their games are
like that. They were like the better version of the Chargers.
They just found a way to win some of them.
But today you gotta give them their ceiling. I mean,
they have a couple wins this year that Miami win
early in the season. Miami's pretty good. That game against
Dallas today, like their ceiling is pretty high. When they're
on obviously playing at home, the division is still open,
(10:29):
like the division is not set. Miami schedule is very hard.
They played Dallas, they play the Ravens, then they finished
with Buffalo. You look at buffalo schedule, at the Chargers,
who mailed that thing in the Pats, and then they finished,
like we said, with Miami. Listen, they've kind of reeled
me back in because today was as much about Josh
Allen just going Lebron James or Steph Curry. It was
(10:51):
more the defense annihilated McCarthy's offense. And like you said,
the run game. What has Buffalo always lacked. It's they've
never had a run back beside Josh, Well, if you
can get a guy, you don't need him to get
one hundred and eighty yards every game. But if you
can rely on an individual to be one hundred yard
a game guy in cold weather games, hard not to
like Buffalo and look at him a little differently after
(11:13):
the last sixty minutes, right right, you know.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
I was thinking about the Steeler teams with Tomlin when
Ben was in his prime. Is that and they had like,
you know, a lavian bell, And that's what Buffalo reminds
me of. They didn't win, you know, they got a
Super Bowl, no question, a couple with Ben. But this
is what Buffalo reminds me. A defensive coach, a defensive
culture with a star quarterback that's about seventy percent of
(11:38):
the offense. And they when they had the star running
back kind of in his prime as an energy, a twitchy,
energy player. There's always Pittsburgh always had a star receiver
on the outside. They draft and developed receivers better than Buffalo.
But this is what this is really what they remind
me of. This is a big Ben's Steeler team with
(12:00):
a defensive coach, defensive culture that has enough offensive pieces
to win. And I when I watch them today, I'm like,
not everybody peaks at the right time. Rams are a
totally different team than six weeks ago. Don't even look
like the same team. I mean, that's a dangerous team.
Now they're blowing people out. So I do you buy
(12:22):
my bills? Look like a Steeler comp Ben Josh Allen
defensive coach where they're very, very energized running back.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Yeah, don't hate it at all. And like the Pittsburgh
they're comfortable playing outside.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
Right.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
That's and look at the AFC. It's hard to know
how the seeding is gonna shake out, but they would
be comfortable. We've seen them go on the road in
Kansas City and play well, go on the road in
Baltimore and play yeah, right, Cleveland problem, Miami, no problem,
they won't. They view Miami as an inferior team. Right,
So you go listen if this team gets in there
(12:55):
and they have a chance to run the table and
get to eleven and six. I mean a couple of
weeks ago, it fell like the building was on fire.
And this is where you got to give McDermott and
Josh and some of the guys internally some credit. They
handled it. They kept you know, kind of the train
on the tracks a little lucky. However, you want to
look at last week it played out they won the game,
and today they beat the living shit out of the Cowboys.
(13:16):
And that was Listen, a lot of people were betting
on the Bills. It's another thing to be up thirty
to three, and the Cowboys struggled to get over one
hundred yards of offense with five minutes left to go
in the game. I don't think anyone saw that. And
that's kind of a rough reflection on Dallas that, you know,
the Eagles, obviously, the story today changed. The defensive coordinators,
guys are sick, they're working through some stuff. But how's
(13:38):
that team going to go on the road and beat
the Niners? Because you want to take Dallas seriously as
this NFC contender, this team to go to the Super Bowl,
and then you watch a game like today, you're.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
Like, how does that happen? Chad Millman Sharper Square, I'm
kind of on a heater. I don't want to brag
about it.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
Oh yeah, how much of a heater?
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Four straight winning weeks four and one. Last week I
had a little bit of an early Denver Bronco Sean Payton,
Russell Wilson September slump. But shit is rolling downhill now.
I'm like McVeigh and Stafford and Puka Nakua.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
Here's the thing. No matter how successful you are and
whatever field you're in, yeah, when you're winning bets, it
just like the whole day is brighter. And I say
that like it just it doesn't matter how much you're
wagering on it. You just feel good. Last week, we
(14:33):
do our podcast on Sunday nights at seven point thirty.
Normally I am biting fingernails and sweating until seven twenty
nine because I don't know how our day is going
to end because of all the games that matter so much.
Last week we were so locked in at seven o'clock,
I was doing dishes because like it was like I
was done, it was over, and it just it felt lovely.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
So I'm gonna take the Steelers plus two at the
Bengals Pittsburgh. That's a second look at a backup quarterback.
They're a desperate team. Veteran coach. Great as an underdog.
They are a cornered animal. Steelers plus two sharper square.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
Totally sharp. This was a two and a half. It
got bumped down. Look, you have a couple of advantages.
One no Jamar Chase. Two buying or selling very high
on the Bengals, buying very low on the Steelers. Three
no Dj Reader. And that is a huge deal in
the middle of the defensive line for the Bengals. Not
only is he great against the run, he's phenomenal against
(15:34):
the past. So you're really going to be limiting your
pass rush capabilities against Mason Rudolph. And don't think like,
all right, we're going from Kenny Pikett to Mitch Trubisky
to Mason Rudolph. He's been all the same. They're all
the same, They're the same quarterback. And then you just
mentioned the most important thing. Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as
a dog, most profitable coach the past twenty years. Mike
(15:56):
Tomlin as a dog at home, Mike Tomlin as a
dog in the division, Mike Tomlin as a dog late
in the year, Mike Tomlin as a dog off a
loss of more than seven like every category. It starts
at sixty percent and gets up to ninety percent. No
joke against the spread. So yes, the wise guys, they're
going to be on the steers.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
I'm not getting the best number at Pickham. I thought
it was one of the bets of the year. I'll
take Dallas plus one and a half of the Dolphins.
I have a theory very good teams who are physically
humiliated on big TV games come back the following week.
It's not just losing, it's being humiliated, physically pushed around.
And Dallas is a physical team. Miami's not.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
Now.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
I do think they generate since Week five of very
nice pass for us. That's a Fangio defense. But I
think Dallas has something to prove. I think they were embarrassed.
I think they're a good football team. I'm going to
take Dallas to win by about a touchdown plus one
and a half here Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (16:53):
Yeah, the wise guys are on the Cowboys. This opened
it too. It's been bet down. There's places where it's
one you mentioned pick him as well, like it would
not surprise me and some of the rumblings I've heard
in the market from professional betters. If Dallas ended up
as the favorite in this game. So I will say
it's very important you get Dallas as an underdog if
(17:14):
you like them, because the trends start to work against
you if they become the favorite in terms of covering.
So you want to get them at the plus number.
But for all the reasons you said like, there are
a lot of trends that will back up the idea
that when you are a team that has been blown
out and then you are going on the road again
as an underdog, you are the team that people should
(17:34):
be backing. So in agreement so far, two for two
Kyle Cowhert.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
The number has been bumped up. All of our odds
provided by Draft Kings. I'm talking to Chad Milman CCO
Action Network Patriots plus seven at the Broncos. Whether could
be crappy? Seven's a lot of points, Denver, can Nicholan
dime you? Bailey Zappi is okay, He's not great. But
my takeaway is this is a low scoring, ugly, crappy
weather game. At six, I would probably stay away. At seven,
(18:02):
I would take New England. That's a lot of points
in lousy weather. We've had huge rain through southern California.
It's all moving into the mountains Denver, Colorado over the
next two to three days. Patriots plus seven sharper square.
Speaker 3 (18:16):
Sharp ish, Like, there's a lot better games on the board.
There's not a huge edge with the Patriots at plus seven.
The challenge for this game is that the Broncos prior
to last week had been living off of turnover. Yes,
that's how they were winning these games. Right, stuff always
(18:38):
evens out, It always evens out, except they're playing Bailey Zape.
So what is the formula for winning for the Broncos.
They're playing bad quarterbacks and getting turnovers. So what are
they getting they're getting I would argue Bailey Zapi is
not a good quarterback in bad weather, in altitude, in
(18:58):
a hostile situation. This is Taylor made to be a
turnover masterpiece for the Denver Broncos. Look at what happened
last week with the Chiefs, Right, the Patriots were in
position to keep that game close. They come out of
the locker room. Bailey Zappy second throw he's rolling out,
(19:18):
throws it directly to a Chiefs defensive back, like doesn't
even There's not even a Patriots receiver there. And that
is going to happen two or three times in a game,
and a couple of those times, at least one of
those times, the Broncos are going to catch the ball,
and that's going to be the way the game changes.
I would not be comfortable betting the Patriots in the spot.
I would bet the under though.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
All Right, one more dog Ravens plus five and a
half at the Niners. They're a bit beat up, but
Harbaugh's an underdog. NFC teams facing for the first time
Lamar Jackson. Now, the Niners have excellent linebackers, Twitchy Fred Warner.
They should be able to be more than competent against Lamar.
But if you've never faced and you don't have anybody
(20:01):
in practice to duplicate it, it can be an avalanche.
Five and a half is a silly number. This is
a very close, physical game, hard to run on the Ravens.
I'm taking the points all day here. I think it's
a good game. I like the Niners. Five and a
half seems almost disrespectful. Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (20:16):
Yeah, so the wise guys are on the Ravens here.
I will say I'm conflicted. I'm conflicted because a I've
got a decent sized bed on Christian McCaffrey at twenty
five to one to win the MVP. And let's face it,
this is the mv people, right, you got Brock Purdy
at about minus two hundred, you got Lamar Jackson at
about three to one, and depending on the book, you've
(20:39):
got Christian McCaffrey is the third shortest odds or Dak
Prescott or Dak Prescott's third shortest, and McCaffrey is four shortest.
So in my heart of hearts, what I'm hoping for
is Christian McCaffrey is dominant and that the Niners win
the game, and that the next two weeks it's just
a coronation for Christian McCaffrey, and I win my Christian
(21:00):
McCaffrey twenty five to one MVP bet. The problem is
that everything you just said, Lamar Jackson against the NFC,
that's not a sort of quirky to take sixteen and
one anomaly. It's because there's nobody like Lamar Jackson that
these NFC teams can prepare when they are playing him
number two. There are like some concerns. I haven't seen
(21:22):
the injury reports from today, but look, i'msted and Hargrave
on the defensive line for the Niners when they were
missing last week, the Cardinals gained nearly four hundred yards, right,
and they kept it close. So, and we also don't
know about Leonore is he going to be playing in
the defensive backfield. When he started to play that defensive
backfield was much better. So I do think there are
some concerns. But I generally think the wise guys are
(21:45):
looking at this and saying, the public is so high
in the Niners. And there are reasons to be high
in the Niners. Right. They are undefeated when Deebo Samuel
and Trent Williams are playing, and they are beating teams
by double digits, they are a legit team. I do
believe the Niners will win the Super Bowl, and I
do believe we will look back on this team and
think it is historically great for the past generation. With
(22:06):
the combination of Kyle Shanahan. Who you think this? I
think this. A lot of people who cover football think this.
He's a brilliant coach who has had bad injury luck
and not exactly the perfect people for what is an
incredible system. And I think he has that. He's had
luck on his side for health. But I think this
week the Ravens are probably going to be the sharp side.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
All right, Tampa Bay, let's go to some favorites minus
one and a half. C J. Bethard probably plays Jacksonville's
in a funk. Trevor Lawrence is banged up. I don't
think he's been healthy in three weeks. We have to
be honest about this. Baker Mayfield, with weapons and reasonable protections,
the best quarterback in his division. He plays with a
(22:47):
great deal of confidence and emotion. I think he feels
really good right now. Todd Bowles is letting him kind
of control the offense. I know they're a favorite. I
tend to like dogs, but CJ. Bethard is an average,
average backup. I'm gonna take the Buck Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (23:03):
No real consensus on what side is the right side here.
The Bucks were two and a half point underdogs when
this game opened. Before we have the insight on Trevor Lawrence,
I will say what's interesting here. Baker Mayfield no joke.
He was elite against the Green Bay Packers, like I think.
(23:25):
He was twenty one of twenty eight north of three
hundred yards, four touchdowns and all season long, the wise
guys have been backing the Bucks, and the Bucks have
been one of those teams where for three quarters they're amazing,
but there'll be four or five drives in the game
where Mike Evans drops a ball or Baker throws a pick,
(23:47):
and like it just puts the game a little bit
out of reach for them. But they've generally played really,
really well. So I can't fault you for liking Baker
in this spot. It's a scary spot because you're also
backing Baker after he was just as good as he's
ever been. I know, but we see j Bether. Yeah,
you're taking a short home favorite.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
All right, let's go to games. I want you to
talk me into so. I have two rules in life.
Number one, don't do meth no winners. Number two, always
take a team favored by four because the odds makers
are telling you, we'd rather do three. That's what we
(24:29):
want to do. We can't. This team's better Rams tonight.
They're just better than the Saints. It'll be a coaching mismatch.
Now it's down at three and a half, but at four,
I thought it was a great bet. Bears minus four
to four and a half. I have been betting best
quarterback in games. But I think ibra Flus is coaching
for his job. I don't think Arizona's guy's coaching for
a job. I think Justin Field is playing for his job. Oh,
(24:53):
this is a this is a big game, a Dome
team going to crappy weather. It'll be it won't be
a blizzard. The weather is kind of unseasonably mild in
the Midwest. But I think the urgency and intensity here.
Also remember last year how teams after they played the Niners,
like all lost. We're not tracking it this year as much,
(25:16):
and the numbers aren't the same, but when you play,
when you play San Francisco, there are repercussions. They're a
really physical team. I think Arizona played spirited football. It's
a really bad roster. The Bears aren't a bad roster.
I want to take Chicago Sharper square a square.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
The wise guys are on the Cardinals. The game was
at four and a half, it got that down to four.
I'd actually take it one step further. I don't think
ebra Fluis is playing for his job. I think he's
auditioning for his next coordinator job. I think Justin Fields
is auditioning for the next team he's going to play on.
I think that as a Bears fan, we saw what
(25:55):
we saw last week against the Browns in that second
half where just Fields was like seven of nineteen for
sixty yards, and that offense was not able to execute,
And at some point that's on the quarterback and his
inability to find the right receivers and so, and on
the coach for coaching a defense that gave up the
(26:17):
game to Joe Flacco and had a ten point lead.
There's a stat that we had that we were talking
about on the Favorites podcast. The Bears, I think this season,
or of only the last two seasons, have had ten
point leads in the fourth quarter six times. They're three
and three. Everybody else in the league the past two
seasons something like ninety three and one. Literally, it's like
(26:39):
a ninety three percent win rate. So there's a lot
of issues with that Bears team. I think that what
we got in the Cardinals is a team that is
just always going to be undervalued. And I don't think
if you look at the market, there's going to be
any professional better who says, oh yeah, I'm comfortable betting
the Bears is more than a field goal favorite, which
is why the line moved down. Also, don't get Kyler
(27:01):
Murray against the spread on the road fifteen and five.
So you're talking about a guy who was very good
at covering the spread, and by the way, he also
covered it last weekend that number was bouncing around. So
I like what. I like what Kyler Murray can do here?
All right?
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Finally, dumpster dive, what's something that I would probably be
appalled with, but you think is pretty tasty? Mean you
all say this. I thought about Eagles minus twelve, they're
bound to win.
Speaker 3 (27:32):
Yeah, I think look in any other scenario, you're looking
at Raiders plus ten against the Chiefs, You're looking at
Giants plus twelve against the Eagles. I'm not going to
ask you to do those things. I'm not going to
do those things this week. I think there's a lot
of wonkingition in those games, and I think professional betters
(27:52):
are sort of divided on really betting those numbers. They're
not really looking to do it. And I interest you
in the Atlanta Falcons minus one.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
Yeah, but by the way MacIntyre's on this, he's like,
that's the sharp side this week it is.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
I mean, look that number. I bet Atlanta at plus
two and a half, and I know what I said.
I said, you got to be wary of those games
that bounce from the one side as the underdog is
now the favorite. But the Colts are really kind of frauds.
And I don't like Shane Steichen. He should be getting
votes for Coach of the Year what he has done
with that team, what he has done with Gardner Minshew,
(28:32):
who I think had won two games as a starter
before this season, Like he has put them in a position.
But also you've got to think about the teams they've
beaten during the streak that they've been on have not
been very good. And now, if you want to talk
about a coach who is coaching for his job, you're
talking about Arthur Smith, and he's putting Taylor Heineke back
(28:53):
in there. Also, because the Colts defense is just trash,
like they can't really stop the run. They were good
before Grover Stewart on his ped suspension, they haven't been
good since they're in the middle of transitioning that defense.
It's just not a very good defense, so I think.
And also the Falcons offensive line, which was really injured.
They had many players who were out or questionable heading
(29:14):
into the game against the Panthers back at home on turf,
Arthur Smith is gonna have to be as creative as
he possibly can to keep this team in the hunt.
I like the Falcons here. There's one more that I like,
probably not worth your time. It's a corner TV game.
Are you ready? Tennessee Titans plus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Yeah, Well, the way Seattle won, people fall in love
with their They really have some really fun young athletes.
But vayble at home, they're getting what three? What is
it now?
Speaker 3 (29:48):
Two and a half? Did it move to three? I
haven't even noticed did it?
Speaker 2 (29:52):
It may have moved to three.
Speaker 3 (29:53):
I'm checking right now. If it did, all the better
then go get go get that, really, because that's that's
the game that the wise guys love. And I know
it sounds they like.
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Tennessee plus two and a half. That's the that's they
love it, love it?
Speaker 3 (30:12):
Why explain love so on the team that just had
the dramatic win in prime time by the team that
just had the devastating loss. Mike Vrabel as an underdog.
He's twenty six and twenty eight straight up as an underdog,
(30:32):
right like, this is a guy who just wins when
he is counted out and his team is not supposed
to win, let alone in the amount of time that
he covers as an underdog. Him and Tomlin are the
two guys that wise guys love to cover. They love
to cover in these exact spots, like to bet on
in these exact spots. So yeah, the wise guys are
(30:54):
digging themselves. Some Tennessee Titans.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
Chad Millman, Happy Holiday, CCO Action Network All lads provided
by Draft King. Great talking to you, buddy.
Speaker 3 (31:03):
Great seeing you too, brother. Happy Holidays to you and
the entire crew.
Speaker 1 (31:08):
The volume
Host
Colin Cowherd
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
Ridiculous History
History is beautiful, brutal and, often, ridiculous. Join Ben Bowlin and Noel Brown as they dive into some of the weirdest stories from across the span of human civilization in Ridiculous History, a podcast by iHeartRadio.