Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Rams Making A Comeback? Lamar Jackson “Best Football Player On The Planet”, Russ Outplays Aaron, Betting NFL Week 8 - The Colin Cowherd Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
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Time today. What time is it? Game Time? First of all,
this week, they rumors came out that Cooper Cup and
Matt Stafford were on the trade block. Cooper Cup, I

(01:04):
believe you see how often they targeted Puka Nakua. He's
their future. Cooper Cup's good, but he's brittle. He struggles.
He's like an old NBA player. He struggles on like
back to back games on turf. You know, he's a guy.
Ideally for him and his body, you'd play him about
ten weeks a year. But for a good team, like

(01:25):
a Pittsburgh team that's playing well, Now you get a
third fourth round pick for Cooper Cup. With Pickens on
the sideline routes, you'd have a real team. You know
he would be a boost. But for the Rams, you
know they're going to extract everything they can the rest
of the year. I don't know if they'll move him.
I think the Rams. I said this today on FS one.

(01:47):
There's no question in that division. San Francisco is not
as good as they were. Nobody's gonna trust Gino Smith
in Seattle. Arizona can be great and awful in the
same game. The Rams are now three and four. Remember
last year slow start, they won seven of their last eight,
got into the playoffs, and they they were a play
away from beating Detroit. So this idea of trading Cooper Cup,

(02:09):
I get it because of Poka Nakua, and I did
not expect Poka Naku would have played tonight. That's why
I had the vikings and the under on the Rams.
I didn't think Pooka n Aku was gonna play. And
you know, he's just total game changer. It's it's he's
not justin Jefferson great, but he's a He's a ten target,
eight catch guy weekly basis for ninety five to one
hundred and fifteen yards. He's just a special player. Fifth

(02:31):
round or two. But the Matt Stafford trade rumors are
just don't make any sense to me. He's got this
year and next year under contract, then they can walk away.
But there's just not There's nobody in the next two
college drafts that is close to this. And Sean McVay
almost walked away from the NFL a couple of years
ago to take an Amazon job as a broadcaster. He

(02:53):
didn't want to start over with some you know, half
of these first round quarterbacks don't make it this coming
up draft, you know, I mean, I can see the
Rams in the third or fourth round taking Riley Leonard
out of Notre Dame, sitting them behind Stafford for a
year or two. But if you're not getting Shader Sanders.
I don't see anybody in this quarterback draft that's going
to play immediately and excel at the NFL level.

Speaker 2 (03:14):
I just don't.

Speaker 1 (03:15):
And that's what my couple sources who I've talked about
in the executive suites in the NFL tell me. It's
just this last draft was great quarterback draft. Next two
are just okay. So I mean Stafford four touchdowns, twenty
three to thirty two, nine different receivers, twenty seven first downs.
They're not getting rid of him. And I said this
last year and I'll say it again. They need a

(03:36):
number one corner. The Rams doing the draft, they need
a draft a sideline receiver, a speed receiver, and they
need another offensive tackle and probably another safety for depth.
But they're not that far away. If they hit, they
have a first and two thirds. If they hit on
those picks, team could win the Super Bowl. I don't
think they were a super Bowl team this year at

(03:57):
three and four, but Minnesota is a good team and
the Rams controlled that second half. So I just I
just don't. I don't buy in the I don't buy
into Matt Stafford's moving and I've said this before. Just
think about Aaron Rodgers. So Matt Stafford was a much
better high school player than Aaron Rodgers, and a much
better college player than Aaron Rodgers, and was better than

(04:18):
Aaron Rodgers their first four years in the league. And
then you know, Aaron's with the Packers, Stafford's with the
you know, bankrupt Lions, and you know Stafford struggles to
win in the same division. Rogers is, you know, out
of this world. For green Band deserves all the credit.
But what happens if Stafford the next two years makes

(04:39):
the makes the Rams a viable super Bowl team. It's
not unheard of San Francisco's peak. We don't trust Philadelphia's coach.
The Lions are the best team. But in a big spot,
Dan Campbell, Jared goff or mcvaghan, Stafford with no Aiden Hutchison,
that that game gets a lot closer. So I just
look at it and I think, to my elf, Stafford's here,

(05:01):
load up on draft picks the next two years, try
to have some hits. You know, the Rams defense is
so young that they can spend some money in free agency.
This year, they're not spending anything on defense. I mean,
those guys are all free they're cheap. They got a
lot of second, third, fourth, fifth rounders all over that defense.
They're not paying anybody right now now that Aaron Donald's gone.

(05:23):
As far as the Vikings go, you know, Sam Donald
was fine outplayed in the second half. But it really
is interesting. So you know, we all kind of picked,
you know, Detroit green Bay to be the best in
the division, and then the Bears and the Vikings to
round it out. And I had said if the Vikings
finished fourth, it's the most talented offensive fourth place team
in the history of the NFL. They're not going to

(05:44):
finish fourth, I think, But I do think, and they've
got winnable games coming up. You know, they've got Titans, Jags, Colts, Arizona,
Bears twice, Seattle. You know, Vikings are a good team.
But I do think Detroit's kind of better roster and
is a better team. And you saw it last week
when they played. And I think Green Bay is so young,
we're not seeing the best version of green Bay. I
think over the next eight weeks, Packers are just going

(06:05):
to get better and better and better better, And I
wouldn't be shocked if they got to a Super Bowl.
I don't see him as a super Bowl winning team
this year, but it wouldn't shock me. They're so young.
Every time you watch green Bay they look better. And
that's the advantage of having a bunch of twenty four
year olds and twenty five year olds who are just
into their prime. Detroit's a little older, more seasoned, and
that's why I like Detroit if they met in like

(06:27):
like a playoff game. But you know, what do you
do with Stafford? So my guess is if the Vikings
end up being a good team winning ten games, but
they finish third because the Vikings, you know, I don't
think they're Detroit or green Bay at their best. And
remember the Vikings may have just lost their left tackle
for some time. Cross your fingers on that. But Donald

(06:49):
will have a market. I mean the last several years.
Think about the quarterbacks who have had a market, Old Brady,
Matt Stafford, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins. Donald will
have a market. Now, somebody may overpay for him. You're
not going to get this Donald, He's not going to
have this left tackle justin Jefferson, this coach you know,
probably Jordan Addison, TJ. Hawkins, And you're not getting that Donald,

(07:13):
But I think he'll be somewhere between the mess in
New York and the Vikings. And he's a really coachable,
likable kid. But you see it to night when you
put him on the field with Stafford, Stafford is the
better quarterback. I mean, Stafford's got nine different receivers, his
pre snap stuff. I mean, the guy is just Matt
is just insanely gifted. But he has you know, he
didn't have a brand. He doesn't give a rip. He

(07:34):
just loves football as family and that's you know, he's
not controversial. He doesn't talk about conspiracy theories. He's just
not who he is.

Speaker 2 (07:41):
Man.

Speaker 1 (07:41):
He's just a good old Texas Southern guy loves football
and family and keeps it quiet. But Donald will have
a market, and I think JJ McCarthy, who had a
great preseason, is kind of their future. And I think,
you know, if Donald gets the ten wins, ten to
eleven wins, that's a second third round, PA, I don't
think you're going to get a first for him. But

(08:02):
Donald will have a market. But they didn't draft JJ
McCarthy to move off him, so but I did think
tonight when you see Donald and he's not reckless. He's
gotten the reckless out of him. But when you see
him on the same field with like a golf last
week or a Matt Stafford this week, he just doesn't
feel quite that. And I think Kevin O'Connell, who's a

(08:23):
quarterback coach, I think a lot of people like Sam Darnold.
But to give a guy a bag, you have to
love your quarterback, and so he'll have a market. I
think the Vikings will pull back a little, but again
they're both the Rams schedule and the Viking schedule. There's
a lot of wins. The other thing on the Rams
tonight they got Pooka Cooper cut back, but the interior
of their offensive line they're still missing two starters. So

(08:45):
this Rams team, which has a young, young, aggressive, talented
defense and a really good offensive line top five or
six in the league when healthy. So the Rams now
are starting to get healthy. Pookah a surprise starter tonight, big,
big production. Just to give you a sense of how
valuable Poka Nikua is, and I didn't think he'd played tonight.

(09:07):
The Rams have won eight of the last nine games.
Puka Nicua has played the only loss overtime loss on
the road to Baltimore, and with that win, the San
Francisco forty nine Ers are now in last place in
the NFC West. The Chargers lose to Arizona seventeen fifteen.

(09:27):
What you were watching are the two best quarterbacks in
the league who have never had any support.

Speaker 2 (09:32):
Now.

Speaker 1 (09:33):
James Connor is really a substantial running back for the
Arizona Cardinals, who won on a walk off field goal.
So he's got something. But Arizona's got the worst owner
in the league. They flushed out the front office. They
have another young coach. Cross your fingers on that. This
offensive line's a better version of the awful ones they've

(09:53):
mostly had. Kyler Murray has just this is why I
support him. He's had complete utter dysfunction as entire career
nerves on it. But it could be worse for Justin Herbert,
who tonight had no run game, patchwork offensive line. Will
Disley at tight end was his go to receiver. What
a disaster. I mean, Herbert was just manufacturing offense. At

(10:15):
one point he had a fifteen play drive, you know,
accounted for almost four hundred yards, and I mean it
is just four yards here, six yards there. No run game,
nine yard completion Justin Herbert with a minute fifty four left,
gave them a fifteen to fourteen lead five field goals.
They've got no playmakers. I mean, when Brock Purty isn't

(10:36):
good in the red zone and you still have playmakers,
it's one thing. They don't have. Any of the Chargers
they got nothing. So Keenan Allen and Mike Williams they got.
They shed those contracts and they drafted Lad McConkey from Georgia,
who's a nice rookie. Slot had a couple decent catches,
but they just don't have any players. And JK. Dobbins

(10:57):
behind that offensive line, no run game. But this isn't the thing.
You have to contextualize it. If you put Kyder Murray
with San Francisco's talent the last four years or Herbert
with San Francisco's talent, I think they have a trophy
and Herbert I think is more popular because he's been
less controversial. But they just I mean, you saw Kyder's
forty four yard touchdown run. Herbert just methodically marching his

(11:20):
team down behind a battle line with no run game.
He has to throw Everybody in Arizona knows it. These
guys are those are really good NFL quarterbacks. They haven't
had the best owners, the best front offices, the best
support staffs, the best offensive lines. And that's why I
support Herbert and Kyler Murray. I mean, I love Jared Goff,
but Detroit has two legit backs, the best offensive line,

(11:43):
a deep threat, a clever offensive coordinator. Sam Laporta. I mean,
it's an embarrassment of riches. And Jared's very good. I'm
a Jared Goff stand but he's got I mean, he's
got a convertible. I have it in Malibu on an
eighty two degree summer day. It is good living if

(12:04):
you're the quarterback of the Detroit Lions. So as Arizona
wins that game, there are really weird franchise. I've said
they're kind of a lesser Buffalo Bills. I'm never quite
sure what I get half to half with Arizona or
game to game with them. But I will say people
can be critical of Kyler Murray. Take him out of

(12:25):
this operation, and what do you have, Carolina.

Speaker 2 (12:29):
That's what you have.

Speaker 1 (12:30):
A kooky, impulsive ownership situation, and I think I think
the Chargers have a chance to make the playoffs. I
think the wildcard situation in the AFC is incredibly weak.
The Jets we kind of like, and they're two and five,
so like Pittsburgh looks like to me, Pittsburgh's not as
good as Baltimore. I don't care what records are, and

(12:50):
we'll get to Baltimore in a second. But I think
the Chargers will eventually find their way once the offensive
line gets healthier. I think they'll kind of figure out
their way to get to nine wins and that'll get you,
I mean, two US coming back. We'll see what Miami is.
But I was actually impressed with both Herbert and Kyler
Murray tonight so much. You know, I've said this before.

(13:13):
It's one thing if you're a trust fund kid, but
if you have had to fight through obstacles and turbulence
your entire life and you never end up making any money,
but you raise a great family, you're a great dad,
that's incredibly impressive to me. Some guys, it's not fair.
They are just pulling franchises uphill from the minute they

(13:35):
step into this league. And that is justin Herbert and
that is Kyler Murray pulling their franchises uphill. So Baltimore
really hammers Tampa forty one thirty one, not indicative of
what it really was. Lamar Jackson's gonna win MVP. Lamar
Jackson right now is the best football player on the planet,

(13:56):
not Patrick Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes the best quarterback. Lamar is
the best all player on Monday Night Football. He has
twenty touchdowns and no picks tonight, five touchdowns, no picks.
The thing about Lamar Jackson that I was really noticing tonight,
they finally have given him Zayflowers. They finally have weapons

(14:17):
for him. I don't know if anybody sees the field.
And I thought about this watching Lamar a lot of
times with young quarterbacks that justin fields, or Zach Wilson,
you know, they have gifts, they move well, they have
good arms, but they just don't see the field. Is
it anxiety, is the fear of getting hit where they
get they get tunnel vision, whatever it is. The ability

(14:42):
for Lamar Jackson to sit in the pocket and be
able to see sideline to sideline. It's like he's always
throwing the ball to the right person. You get all
the upside and really very little downside.

Speaker 2 (15:00):
And you know.

Speaker 1 (15:02):
He has I don't know how it ended. At one
point he had eighteen touchdown passes without a pick. You know,
there was this for years. I mean when he came
into the league, I didn't know what he was gonna be.
I mean I had no idea. I mean I watched
him play at Louisville in college and I'm like, I
don't think this is gonna work. I didn't think Dak
Prescott was gonna work. By the way, Dak Prescott fell

(15:23):
to the fourth round, So everybody in the league question
whether it was gonna work. But you know, NFL GM's
miss on quarterbacks all the time. What you have to
be able to do is acknowledge when you make a
mistake and go, yeah, this guy can play. So it
was very obvious. By the middle of a second year,
You're like, this guy's you know, he's two three touchdowns game.
He has developed into such an extraordinary pocket passer, and

(15:46):
I think a lot of it is his He has
no fear in the pocket. I mean he got hammered.
He doesn't get hammered as much as he used to.
He got hammered tonight two or three times. A couple
of helmet on helmets He's a totally fearless player, completely
utterly fearless player. And he's not he doesn't have a

(16:08):
dad bod, he's not thick. He just doesn't care. And
then you add Derrick Henry to it. Did you notice
that Troy Aikman shot tonight at the Dallas Cowboys when
he said, you know, there's a lot of teams could
have used Derrick Henry and Joe Buck said anybody in particular.
That's the difference in the Baltimore front office and the
Dallas Cowboy Jerry Jones led front office, Dereck Henry was

(16:30):
out there for eight million bucks, and Baltimore's like, yeah,
we're gonna, We're gonna do that. I'll continue to say
that Kansas City's the best team in the league, But
who's playing the best football? And I think it's Baltimore.
I just I mean it's they reeled off at one
point twenty seven straight points and Tampa's good team. Now again,

(16:53):
Mike Evans got hurt that that that was tough. Baker
Mayfield to a really bad pick into the end zone
that kind of started the avalanche. And you know, it's
like Brock Purty throwing three picks against Kansas City, or
Baker mayfield a big pick in the end zone against Baltimore,
then the Avalanche starts and then there's no going back
on that. But I there's not a player on the planet,

(17:15):
including Patrick Mahomes, that I enjoy watching play more than
Lamar Jackson. And you watch him on the sidelines. They
should just write a book on how to act as
a star quarterback. He's such an adult, he's such a
grown up, so humble. He's on the sidelines and you
know he's asking players how you doing, And you know

(17:36):
he's not over there gloating or he's just such a
team guy.

Speaker 2 (17:41):
I just love him.

Speaker 1 (17:42):
Cannot get enough of Lamar Jackson and a But the
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Speaker 1 (19:15):
So the Steelers beat the Jets thirty seven to fifteen
it is the most points the Steelers have scored since
twenty twenty one, and the Jets have now surrendered sixty
points since Robert Sala, the best coach on their staff,
was fired. So I was just thinking about this, so
I wrote down how every Jets game has gone blown out,

(19:36):
ugly win, dominating win, New England, first team in the league,
ugly loss, close loss, close loss, ugly loss. There are
two and five football team and the Steelers are five
and two. And if you watch tonight the Steelers offense,
I mean it may have been ugly for Russell Wilson
in that first quarter, it was really ugly, but second

(19:59):
half he was the better quarterback. So two takeaways. The
Jets fired Robert Sala the defense in the last two games.
I said it at the time, you just fired the
best coach in your staff. The defense has not played
up to a Robert Salas standard since he was fired.
That's what change does. So now Aaron is asked to

(20:20):
be better than he was before when Sala was the
coach because the defense isn't as good. So you got
rid of the best coach on your staff. And yeah,
I mean in the second half of that game, so
I went, I was thinking about Russell Wilson because obviously
I was a huge fan in Seattle. Then Denver was
the Hacket year was a disaster, and the Sean Payton

(20:40):
ere it was fine. And then I went and looked
at the numbers for Russell Wilson in Denver, and because
Sean had such disdain for him, you know, there was
this sense that Russell was terrible in Denver. No, the
Broncos defense last year was awful. That's why it's so
surprising that the Broncos defense this year so good. It's

(21:01):
mostly the same players. What happened, I mean, the same guys. Basically,
they didn't have many draft picks, right, they gave him
up to get Russell Wilson, so they went and got
a kid from Utah defensive end. They just didn't have
many picks onn't got a receiver or two. So Russell
last year in Denver with Sean Payton and they didn't

(21:21):
they didn't connect. But he won five games in a
row in the middle of the season. He finished with
a ninety eight passer rating, sixty six percent completion percentage,
twenty six touchdowns, eight picks, and elusive not terrible it's
above average. I mean, ninety eight passer rating is a
B to a B plus quarterback. The very few interceptions inaccurate.

(21:45):
So as you were watching the second half to night,
Russell was in total control. He was more athletic than
Aaron Rodgers. He had two touchdowns, no interceptions. I thought
he played an incredibly clean game through for two hundred
and sixty plus yards. If you had told me before
the night started, Russell Wilson would have outplayed Aaron Rodgers,

(22:08):
I would have said, you're out of your mind. This
guy hasn't played in forever. He's coming off a really bumpy, ugly,
bad pr year in Denver, and he out played him.
And Pittsburgh ran the ball. You know, it's the Steelers.
They're just going to kind of grind it and ugly
it and they're probably going to end up winning nine

(22:31):
to ten games. But Russell Wilson in the second half
was better. And what's becoming increasingly clear, and this is
not to take a shot, but Aaron is a completely
a pocket quarterback. Now he's Jared Golf, but Jared Goff
is much more accurate with a much better offensive line.
But he doesn't move Aaron doesn't move anymore. He has

(22:51):
a lot of shuttle passes, a lot of quick passes.
He didn't want to get hit, and he doesn't move.
And just go look at how valuable Holmes movement was today,
or Jordan Love's movement was today. Go look around the
league in the morning. Trevor Lawrence moving, that's winning football games,
Josh Allen's movement today. Aaron is a pocket only quarterback

(23:14):
with some flips, quick passes, didn't stay in the pocket
very long the receiving course. Okay, now, Mike Williams even
made a catch tonight, but Russell was the better quarterback
and it was ugly early, but you got to get
over first impressions. This is a two and five football team.
Thank god they played the Patriots again. They play the

(23:35):
Jags later, So I mean, New York's got all sorts
of opportunities, but we're gonna have to be totally honest here.
Russell Wilson, with this defense and this culture and this
head coach and this run game is going to end
up having a better year than Aaron Rodgers with that
interim coach and that crappy culture and that bad owner

(23:56):
and a hit and misrun games, couldn't run the ball tonight.
You know, it's funny Aaron and Russell Wilson. I can't
speak for Russell. I don't think Russell spent a lot
of time thinking about Aaron Rodgers. But Aaron has never
been a fan of Russell Wilson. You know, Aaron, I

(24:17):
don't know if he's spiritual. I'm not sure if he's agnostic,
but he's spiritual. Always kind of rolled his eyes at
Russell Wilson. It was pretty understood in the league, So
to lose to Russell Wilson is you know, it's just
I would imagine kind of digs and Aaron Rodgers, but
I don't think anybody could botch that game tonight and
be confused. Russell was much more under control, had a

(24:38):
better run game, had a better coach. But that's part
of it. So, you know, it's funny. When Russell first
went to Pittsburgh, my take was, oh, it's a pretty
good spot. It won't be a heavy lift for him.
He's got pickings on the outside, got a couple of
good backs, it's a good culture. And then you know
he calf injury, loses his job to Justin Fields. You know,

(24:59):
you just you're just tearing things that you know. Is
he a Steeler? I mean the press, the leaks, but
you're watching him tonight, man, and I'm like, yeah, that's
that's better than Justin Field's. He was more under control
his cadence at the line of scrimmage. He was more
under control. So we got to be fair about this stuff.

(25:19):
What do he looked like in the first quarter and
what he looked like in the second half two different things.
And the Jets, I mean, I said going into the
weekend it was one of my picks of the week.
Then the staff here at the volumes like, are you sure?
My blazing five? Two wins, two losses and a push,
But this was my second favorite moment of the week.

(25:40):
I thought, Russell hasn't played, he's coming off a calf injury.
The locker room kind of like Justin Fields, I mean,
Big Ben is like you can't see him. There was
literally nobody around the Steeler organization outside of it that
thought it was a good move. There was nobody, I
mean big Ben talk show hosts, I follow Pittsburgh media,
nobody liked the Russell Wilson move. And by the end

(26:02):
of this game, you're like, of course, it felt like
it was the right move. He was just I kind
of just felt like he's been in so many games
and so many standalone games, it wasn't too big for him.
And you know, what a messy season for a franchise

(26:24):
that cannot get out of its way. I mean, just
think about this, go look at the green Bay Packers. Now.
Green Bay Packers are human. They've got a young quarterback,
They've got incredible chemistry in that locker room with all
those receivers and tight ends for the Packers. What a
fun team to be part of. And it's now when
you look at the Packers, how lucky are they to

(26:49):
have moved on from the toxicity of Aaron. I'm being realistic.
I mean, the Packers now are young. Generationally, everybody's on
this same page. They're fun, They're just a fun team
to watch. They've got a really nice spirit in Green
Bay and cranky, prickly Aaron goes to New York and
it's just this divorce. You know that Brady Belichick divorce

(27:13):
was really ugly, but the Aaron green Bay divorce, it's
not good. It's the opposite of Brady. Brady won his
divorce Aaron's losing his Green Bay young, fun, energetic, winning,
New York mess, impulsive, grumpy god. I just cannot believe

(27:38):
that I watched the night John Middlecoff, former NFL Scout
three and out podcast at the volume. Let's start, and
we're gonna spend some time on Kansas City and San Francisco,
both teams, you know, hemorrhaging wide receivers. And I thought,
this is the real separator between Mahomes and a good quarterback.
Mahomes had an ugly pick. Uh Brock had multiple picks.

(28:02):
Brock had three, but there were three or four moments
in this game, you know, the shotgun, fourth and one,
Mahomes running it in the thirty three yard run. And
I felt in this game it'd be easy to pick
on Brock Purty because they didn't play well. But Mahomes
didn't play particularly well. But there is something to be
said about being resourceful, which I think Andy Reid and

(28:24):
the Chiefs have made a living on. They're still ham
and egging this wide receiver Cort. Nobody's ever healthy.

Speaker 2 (28:31):
Today.

Speaker 1 (28:31):
PERTY had to deal with that. Deebo was sixth and
I you had a big drop and you gets hurt.
I Listen, they're going to pay brock Purty. We know
they're gonna pay him, but in this moment, and again
it's Mahomes, But I thought there was a separation kind
of these three or four two or three magical moments,
and it felt like Mahomes had all of them.

Speaker 2 (28:54):
Yeah, I mean, you can't really box course scout Mahomes
this year. It's been pretty terrible. But half way through
that game when they were you know, they didn't have
a large lead, but it felt like they were in
control of the game. If you just watch Mahomes always
made big plays. Yes, And one thing they've done and
this is where Veitch gets a ton of credit in

(29:15):
Andy being boys with Spags and bringing him on board.
They're a defensive team. Yeah, I mean that defense creates
havoc the pass rush. All the ads can cover that
they can lose dB after dB and they get random
guys making place so everyone's on the same page because
the guy's blitzing NonStop. You've got to be able to cover.
But yeah, I mean Mahomes just comes through that. They

(29:36):
have a little magic with him and Andy in the
biggest spots. Yes, and they did benefit today from Purdy
and Kyle just kind of they were a bad I mean,
it was just it was the The Niners are awful
in the red zone, Perdy, you cannot afford I think
the question. I think there's a couple of different angles
to this one. Why are we always in such a

(29:57):
rush to pay guys that you don't know for sure?

Speaker 1 (29:59):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (29:59):
Right, Like I got no problem paying Josh Allen after
year three, paying Patrick Mahomes, even the Ravens, but it
had with Lamar Jackson. I mean, yeah, Lamar Jackson's gonna
go down. Besides, like ray Lewis like the second greatest
player in the history of the franchise, He's not a
free agent act. He's going into his fourth year. Let's
take anat breath. If he keeps playing this shitty against
good defenses, Minnesota, turn the ball over, tonight, turn the

(30:22):
ball over? Now there was one might not have been
his fault, but the other, like, you just need some
more plays. You can't go well all these injuries. Who
are the Chiefs playing with? Just make a coup of plays.
No one's saying you're Patrick Mahomes. But this was a
pretty winnable game for the forty nine ers, was it?

Speaker 1 (30:35):
Not Yeah, and Bray Tom Brady said this. He said
this twice with Purty two of the bigger pretty completions downfield.
Both balls were under thrown.

Speaker 2 (30:45):
Well, one's a touchdown at the end of the game,
there's eleven minutes to go and they're down what two points?
Instead he ends up throwing the pick and the ends
the game.

Speaker 1 (30:53):
Yeah, and so I again it's I like Brock, but
you know, people struggle to contextualize things like I like
Sam Donald, But this is a perfect situation, justin Jefferson,
Jordan Addison, good run game, excellent protection, brilliant coach, top
defensive coordinator. Donald is now playing better and he was

(31:14):
really good today. We'll get to that in fifteen minutes.
But it's a perfect situation for Sam Donald. Like he
went from Adam Gase a terrible situation to a perfect
one and he's somewhere in between. This has always been
between Shanahan Trent Williams.

Speaker 2 (31:32):
Kittle.

Speaker 1 (31:33):
So today, you know, to me, the whole game came
down to the Brandon ik drop and that forces a
punt McCole Hardman, big punt return. That was the game,
Like that was the moment. Now, now who knows what happens.
But once again San Francisco's special teams are a huge

(31:55):
liability in a big game.

Speaker 2 (31:58):
Well, that's on the coach. Yeah, special teams coverage have
been just horrendous since Kyle has been there. He does
not care. I mean that's the only way you can
sum up their special teams units. I'm not talking about
kicking and punting. I mean they're on there, the third
kicker in three weeks, but the actual coverage units, it's
on the coach, Andy Reid, what does he do? Hied
Dave Tobe Wiley considered the best special teams coach going

(32:20):
back to Chicago with Devin Hester. See, I go even
further because it's twenty one to twelve. Cowing the kid
from Arizona who can fly, smokes the corner who just
comes in, and even Brady's like, listen, obviously you got
to hit the pass, but you hit that in stride.
He walks into the end zone. So then you're down
just I mean, your field goal wins the game at

(32:40):
that point, there's eleven minutes to go. Instead, he has
to stop. He gets tackled. A couple of plays later,
he throws a pick and he's not Mahomes or Josh
Allen as a deep ball thrower. But that wasn't the
hardest deep ball to throw, Like you got to hit
that in stride. But think of how the entire game
is gone, no confidence, not playing well, doesn't have much
cohesion with that player. It was just I just get

(33:05):
back to this. If you have question marks about these
quarterbacks and they have years to go on there, what's
the difference between paying a guy fifty three million and
fifty eight million. It's gonna cost you more. Well, I mean,
I'd rather know for sure, Like at the end of
the day, the Cowboys they know exactly who Dak is,
So why didn't you just pay him a year and
a half ago. If you're gonna pay him, it does

(33:25):
save you twenty thirty forever. Yeah, he's their guy. He
wasn't gonna go anywhere. Not that you're kicking party to
the curb, but I'd never understand this rush. If we
got questions, Let's just see this season play out, because
when they play good defenses now Minnesota and Kansas City, like,
you can't afford turnovers. You cannot afford turnovers, and this
year Party the fumbles. Obviously the picks and big spots.

(33:48):
It just cannot happen if you can't overcome them with
just incredible brilliance like Mahomes somehow is doing this year
because he's turned the ball over a lot, Colm, but
it hasn't seemed to matter.

Speaker 1 (33:57):
Well as as Brady pointed out during the game, there
was a stat that first and second down, Mahomes is
getting rid of the ball quickly. On third down he's
holding it for three and a half seconds because he's
trying to make big plays. But he realizes he can't
do that all the time. And you know the other
thing with Mahomes when he missed Worthy on that over

(34:18):
the top throw, he overshot him. That's okay, Like he's
not going to give you a chance to intercept the ball.
But there were I have like six different plays here.
There's a flip by him, he throws against his body
Travis Kelcey forhurst down. I have six. Maybe I've got
sheet after sheet out or sheet of notes for this game.
All six are Mahomes plays. Now that's not to say

(34:43):
I mean, right now, Seattle's in first place in that division.
But I said coming into the season, John, you can
only be so old so long and Debo comes in sick,
you gets banged up. This this Niner team Detroit is
like a younger version of the Niners, and younger players
when they do get hurt, recover more quickly. And I

(35:06):
kind of feel like the red zone issues are mostly
Christian McCaffrey. But I kind of feel like watching Shanahan
today today was a moment you're at home. Kansas City's vulnerable.
No Rashi Rice players go to and they use Mkole
Hardman like he's a number one, And it's just I

(35:27):
think that you have to look at the game as
a Niner fan and go, We're not beating these guys
unless we got to get more special at certain places.
That's how I feel about it.

Speaker 2 (35:38):
Yeah, and for a large portion of the game, And
this gets back to when they struggle is they couldn't
run the ball. And when Kyle can't run the ball,
his passing game is built off that he can't just
drop back and throw consistently. He's not comfortable calling plays
like that. In my one knock on him, as he
is a really good coach and he's proven to be
a brilliant play caller over the years. But I wouldn't

(35:58):
call him the most adapt to the play caller. His
offense is his offense. It's very specific. You know, it's
completely different. But like Mike Leech ran what Mike Leech tran, right,
Kyle runs what he runs, and if he's gashing you
in the run game, the passing game runs off that.
He can't just go like he has to keep running
the ball even when it's not working, because his passing

(36:19):
plays are all bootlegs and everything off play action instead
of just spreading it out and let pretty in college
and listen, I'm not acting. And one thing I've always
pushed back against when people criticize he's not Josh Allen
or Patrick Mahomes, but relative to the majority of guys,
over the course of his career, he's been better than
or equal to the Dacks, the Cousins, the gofs. But

(36:39):
you have to rely on him sometimes, just spread it
out if the run game's not working. And then you
notice when they started getting back Mason started hitting some runs,
and that's when Kyle's feels the most comfortable. Andy Reid
is a good example. Now he's much older and much
more experienced. It doesn't matter if something's working, he can
write it. If it's not working, they can adapt it. Kyle.
It's very, very specific, and I just think that so

(37:02):
dependent on the run game. Like I know, Pears all
came back from getting shot. So it's hard to put.
But he is a first rounder. Cowing is a talented player.
You got Kittle out there, Mason gets the ball, you
can still throw the ball if the run games off.
The Chiefs were lined up, I dare you to run
the ball. We're gonna stop it, and through my majority
of the game, they neutralized it.

Speaker 1 (37:22):
Green Bay beats Houston twenty four to twenty two. And
here's why this game is important. I feel like they
played each other. Green Bay is the Houston of the
of the NFC. Houston is the Green Bay of the AFC.
I think both through a year away. I love their rosters,
I love their young coaches, and I love their cornerbacks.

(37:44):
Jordan loves better than C. J. Stroud, in my opinion,
moves better. Jordan's got some real farv He's gonna have
bad picks, but god, he can really let it rip.
I really like wathing him play, But I feel like
I watched the same team. Is that they're close right coach,
right quarterback, right o line, nice weapons, not quite mature enough.

(38:10):
There's somebody in the way, Detroit. There's somebody in the way,
Kansas City. But there was an interesting moment in this
game where late Houston Demico Ryans settled for a field
goal and they didn't force Green Bay to burn timeouts.
And I thought, well, Demiko's a defensive coach. You just
you got to bake that in. These guys aren't going

(38:32):
to go for it. But as I watched this game,
I thought, these guys are not good enough to hoist
a trophy. But if you told me over the next
four years, because the quarterbacks I think potentially with the
right weapons are in that Jared Golfer slightly above that class.
Green Bays now five and two, Houston five and two.

(38:52):
I felt like I'm watching two great franchises. After this year,
they'll both be in the Super Ball bubble for about
six straight years.

Speaker 2 (39:02):
I think Green Bay, if they get their shit together,
could be a Super Bowl contender this year. And when
I say that, I just mean their quarterback not throw
awful interceptions. I mean he threw, he moves. He's like
a mirror image of Aaron the mannerisms, the way he moves,
the way his arm kind of hangs. But when the
ball leaves his hands, it's like two thousand and two
Brett Forth. It could be the most incredible touchdown you've

(39:25):
see of the day, or it could be a pick
hitting the guy in stride. Where you go? Is this
guy gonna go seventy yards the other way? I mean
today he threw two picks, one got returned I think
to the eleven yard line. They had a muffed punt
that led to a fumble like that, I thought Green Bay.
I mean the CJ's trout even throw for one hundred yards. No,
they were not very good on offense, and two of

(39:45):
their touchdowns, definitely one of them came on the muff punt,
obviously mixing having him back Nico Collins, it turns out
as like they're Terrell Owens. You take him out of
their offense, they kind of fall apart. But Demko's so
good on offense or as a defensive coordinator, creates pressure
and just creates some habit. They got to settle this
guy down. That being Jordan Love in terms of even
Laflora made a comment after the game about like you

(40:07):
guys keep pushing this far of narrative. Well, yeah, he
keeps throwing the ball to the other team, but he's
remarkable and he's throwing three or four touchdowns every game.
And in your offense. Their offense, it doesn't have the
name recognition of like Saint Brown, Montgomery, Gibbs, Laporta, but
you watch them, you're like, that receiver's good. That receiver's good. Yeah,
new tight end's good. You're like, I've known Josh Jacobs

(40:28):
is good for a while. That their offensive weaponry. And
think about this, Colin, They're not going to be intimidated
by Detroit. They're going to know each other really well.
It's kind of like a Niners rams from a couple
of years ago. So I I and honestly, I've always
said this, They're actually better off not winning the division
because the way they want to play on offense. Go
into the dome. Okay, let's play a thirty five to
thirty game, because you can't play that at Green Bay

(40:48):
in the middle of January. Was always the downfall of
Rogers teams. They have these great offenses and then they
play some of these home games it's like no one
can feel their hands That's why the Chiefs are like, yeah,
we can play a negative twenty. Now we only need
eighteen points away the game. Yeah. And now I think
their defense, this Halfley guy that they got from Boston College,
it feels like he's kind of settling down. They look
a lot better much, the team speeds better. He's blitzing

(41:10):
at the right times. I mean, their defense has been
pretty atrocious over the going back to McCarthy and then
early on with you know, the Joe Barry run with Lafour.
I'm not saying it's gonna like completely turn the corner,
but I feel a little more comfortable with it. I mean,
today you hold CJ. Stroud, he still has take Dell
out there, Diggs is out there mixing's back Shultz. I mean,

(41:30):
they got enough firepower that he should be able to
score for, you know, for over one hundred and fifty yards.
And it was a beautiful day. It wasn't like twenty
degrees at Green Bay. It looked like it was eighty
degrees outside. Even the announcers like, this doesn't get any better.

Speaker 1 (41:42):
Than this, No, it's so a Jordan Love twenty four
to thirty three, three tds, two picks, here's what I
like about it. So, first of all, Dobbs had eight catches, wicks,
three craft the tight ends excellent, eleven yards of catch.
Jacob's out of the backfield had fives. Terrific player Christian Watson,

(42:03):
I mean, I mean they And what's funny is none
of these guys make a nickel. I mean they're not
paying any of these guys for like four years.

Speaker 2 (42:13):
Yeah, to me, his interceptions, there was there was a
play late in the game when they ended up kicking
the game winning field goal. I think it was like
less than thirty seconds left. He let it rip like
forty yards down the field. Now, he overthrew the dB
and the wide receiver, but it was like, what is
going like, why are you making this throw?

Speaker 4 (42:33):
Right?

Speaker 2 (42:33):
Which he's I'm not a Packer fan, but he keeps
you on the edge of your seat when you're watching
them play. Remember that was he throw a late pick
in the Niner game, Yes, you know, to end that game.
That's the thing that makes me nervous. It's not like
golf can't do that. But right now he's not really
throwing the ball in harms way. Well, where Jordan Love
is throwing the ball in harms way a lot. Well.

Speaker 1 (42:53):
I mean, to your point, the Texans on the road
averaged three point four yards of play terrible on third
down we're.

Speaker 2 (43:02):
Allowed they got they got a muff punt at the
ten yard line. That was a need he was a
free touchdown.

Speaker 1 (43:07):
I mean, the Texans threw for fifty five yards today
and have a chance to win that game. So to
your point is Love is going to keep I mean
the text if you look at the box score, Texans
should have been beat by three touchdowns and they lose
twenty four to twenty two, and that I think that's
a little bit of what Jordan Love gives you. It

(43:27):
also Lafleur, to his credit, and I think an offensive
coach is more willing to do this than Demko Ryans.
He he lets him work his way through his mistakes,
Like Lafleur is like I got an artist here. I
can't box him in. I gotta let him do some
of his stuff.

Speaker 4 (43:45):
You know.

Speaker 1 (43:45):
One of the throws that Love likes to do and
he it feels like they're almost all picked or all caught,
is when he throws the rainbow ball when he's backing
up and he holds it too long and he just
throws a rainbow and I'm like, he's going to work
himself out of that. That won't last. And because that,
like he does that like four times a game.

Speaker 2 (44:04):
I give Lafour so much credit because a big reason
they're five and two is they won the games with
Malik Willis when he was gone. And now you feel
like if they can just rain this guy in a
little bit, and they did last year. Well sometimes and listen,
I'm guilty of this. This guy has not played much football, right.
I mean, you look at c. J. Stroud has been
playing for two years. Ohio State comes right to the NFL,
like he's been starting every year for five straight years

(44:25):
going back to high school. You look at some of
these quarterbacks, the amount of snaps they've taken. Jordan Love
just sat there for three years, and there gets to
a point like obviously he needed to work on his
fundamentals and everything as a project, but they gets a
point where you're just not playing at all, and then
he gets thrust into it. We saw last year it
took him a little while. Then he gets injured this year,
so maybe by the second half of the season they

(44:46):
can rain him in. I think their offense is like
an unnamed I mean, the Packers fans know him, but
just you know people that play fantasy, but they don't
have like superstar name recognition. Yet some of these guys
might turn into that by the end of the year.
They might just be the same as the line just
in terms of their firepower. And it's actually kind of
different because of his deep ball ability. I mean, that
guy at any moment can fling at fifty sixty yards.

Speaker 1 (45:07):
Absolutely listen, you think they're ready to win a Super Bowl?
I think they're a year away.

Speaker 2 (45:11):
I really do. If I'm saying they're ready, I just
think if they come in they do have the pieces
that their defense is good, he plays well. If he's
playing well, they could beat any team. Do you agree
to that?

Speaker 1 (45:28):
Time for another edition of Sharp or Square? Chad Millman,
CEO Action Network, I pushed at two to two and one.
All of our odds provided by DraftKings. So I have
been last couple of weeks I've been moving toward best quarterback.
I do think defensive players statistically get hurt more than

(45:48):
offensive players. Defenses can weaken and the quarterbacks separate. Coaching
quarterbacks separate. This time every year. If you go look
at the AFC, the best quarterbacks lead each division. Kirk
Cousins leads his. By the way, if you look at
the quarterbacks playing best, I think eventually Jordan Love will

(46:08):
lead his division. That's the time of the year we're in.
So let me throw out a game that is fascinating,
and this really highlights how important numbers are. So Historically,
quarterbacks off concussions don't play their best the first week back.
But Arizona Miami at three and a half, I'm out.

(46:31):
But Arizona is the most inconsistent team in the league.
They often have the best quarters followed by the worst halves.
If it's minus two and a half or minus three Miami.
I like them because Arizona High Low Hilow just beat
a team that I think is better than them, the
Chargers and Hardball. So what I feel is like, oh,

(46:55):
here they go short week Monday night, Here they go
cross country, you lose it and prep. Here is Tua
McDaniel played terribly with absolutely something to prove. They are
going to flex at They're gonna keep starters into the
last play. That game interests me like Miami not only

(47:16):
needs to win, they've been so bad for a month.
They want to sell to that locker room. We are
a great team. This is a new page and a
new team. Forget the last month. Game fascinates me. I
would take Miami minus three, but the hook because of
concussions and the numbers behind those scare me. What are

(47:36):
the sharps think on this.

Speaker 4 (47:39):
Now? It's like you are inside a professional better war room,
because that is the exact conversation earlier this week, this
line opened at three and a half. Arizona was the underdog.
The professional betters at Arizona yep at three and a half.
When it got to three and it even touch two

(48:00):
and a half, professional betters started coming in on Miami
and I apologize for people listening to my voice. It
sounds worse than it is. Don't worry. I'm gonna be fine.
The point is Miami is the team professional betters are
backing for every reason you just said. They believe Tua

(48:22):
will make this team better. More importantly, they aren't believing
in Kyler Murray as a consistent winning quarterback going cross
country to play the Dolphins in a desperate, desperate situation. Wise,
guys are on Miami. Yeah, desperate spot, you gotta.

Speaker 1 (48:38):
Win, and I really do believe Miami Mike McDaniels has
to rebrand this team fast because they've been the worst
team in the league for about a month and they
have and also they're watching the Patriots fall apart and
the Jets fall apart. So it's like, guys, let's see
second place, first assignment Sunday, let me get Colin.

Speaker 4 (48:58):
Last week, I was saying in an airport and I was
going over my notes for the favorites to the show,
and I couldn't remember who was playing quarterback for the
Miami Dolphins. And that's how off the radar there. I
had to look up literally Miami Dolphins starting quarterback and
you know what came up, Tua. Google didn't even know
who the starting quarterback for Miami was. That's how sort

(49:21):
of forgotten they've been. So you're one hundred percent right.
They need to reframe who they are right now.

Speaker 1 (49:27):
Okay, Colts in a desperate spot plus five rival game
at the Texans the Green Bay game, there was a
little bit of a red flag on Houston. So CJ.
Strouds in year two clearly needs Joe Mixon and Nico
Collins to be completed, he's getting worse protection. If you

(49:48):
watch the past attempts and you watch the coaching, they're
getting a little conservative with him. It tells you that
if they're not completely healthy, the staff doesn't necessarily trust him.

Speaker 4 (50:01):
Yet.

Speaker 1 (50:02):
Conversely, Jordan Love throws ugly picks, early, bat lefloor, doubles down,
throw it more. They know they've got farv on their hands.
Jordan Love is an aggressive thrower, and Lafleur totally backs in.
But the way they're coaching, see Jay Stroud is telling
me they're a little concerned with the elements around him

(50:23):
and sometimes as a second year player, he needs though,
he needs those the nicos, the Joe mixons to fortify
his game. So I'm gonna take the Colts plus five.
It was six on DraftKings all or odds provided by DraftKings.
Sharper Square.

Speaker 4 (50:38):
Yeah, it's totally sharp. In fact, it went from six
and a half to six to five and a half
to five. It's now at four and a half in
some places. Wise, guys have been pounding the Colts. I'm
gonna take your theory about better quarterback and expand it
because that obviously isn't the case in this scenario. But

(50:59):
I do think one of the reasons why the public
has been winning so much in the past two weeks.
The public meaning if there are more than fifty one
percent of the bets on one side, that is a
public side. For the first five weeks of the year,
the public was having its worst season in the twenty

(51:20):
years we've been tracking this at Action Network. The past
two weeks, the public is twenty two zero seven and
one complete and total reversal. Obviously, Houston is going to
be the public side here, but what normally happens is
bad quarterbacks and bad teams with big numbers find a
way to cover, and they haven't been. This is a

(51:41):
situation where I'm extrapolating. I think it's more about good
coaching and dominant unit. So you have in the Colts
the number one run blocking unit in the NFL. You
may get Jonathan Taylor back, you practiced yesterday for the
first time off of that high ankle spring. You've got it,
a great play caller in Shane Steichen who last year

(52:04):
almost got the coat of the Playoff with Gardner Minshew.
And by the way, has this team at four and
three and one game out of the first place in
the AFC South behind the Texans, who they only lost
to by two points eReader this year. So that is
why the Wise guys are coming in. One trend for
you division favorites the past eight years forty six percent

(52:25):
against the spread, So it's also a good spot.

Speaker 1 (52:28):
One more underdog Seattle plush three against the Bills. So, uh, Seattle.
We haven't seen a lot of Seattle when they're healthy
upfront defensively, but boy did Kirk Cousins see that last week.
This is a really good defensive coach with some really

(52:49):
tasty defensive personnel. They're also getting their top cornerback. When
I look at Gino Smith, I look at two ways
with time and a run game. He's highly effective when
rushed sometimes on the road. He's not Buffalo is not

(53:10):
a team. Although I like them, I don't trust them.
They're a much better version of Arizona and Seattle at
home healthy a field goal. I this is hard for
me to turn down at three and a half. It's
one of the best bets of the week. At three,

(53:30):
I'd roll with it. The Seahawks sharper square.

Speaker 4 (53:34):
So it's square. The Wise guys are on Buffalo, but
I will tell you. I'm with you. I don't understand
why they're on Buffalo. You know, we've talked about this before.
We do a segment and our show called Sharp Calls
on Tuesday, we talk about other games. By Thursday, when
we do the next episode of the week. We've got

(53:55):
feedback from a lot of professional betters with their opinions
on what we talked about on Tuesday, and we will
review those on the show. Seattle Buffalo was one of
the games that we loved on Tuesday, and on Thursday
we were getting a lot of calls from professional betters,
so that they weren't buying Seattle's defense. They weren't buying
Gino Smith, and they liked Josh Allen and the year

(54:16):
that he's having no interceptions hasn't thrown an interception in
nine games, which is coming close to record breaking status, right.
But I am with you. Like the Bills beat up
on bad teams, yes, and they may use or struggle
against good teams. So if you're betting Seattle, then you

(54:36):
are basically taking a stand that you think Seattle is
a good team. And there is some evidence of that
they have gotten healthier, but there's evidence that they're a
bad team too, right, So I think that's what the
wise guys are playing here at They just don't believe
Seattle is a very good team yet.

Speaker 1 (54:50):
All right, all right, let's go to some favorites. Bears
minus two and a half at the Commanders. Even if
Jaden Daniels plays, he's not at one hundred percent, And
you could you could clearly see with the Giants next week,
if Jaden Daniels plays, gets dinged pass rush pretty good
for Chicago, you could see them saying we're going to Mariota.

(55:10):
We're going to go into divisional play. We got no interest.
I think the Bears defense, because we're so fixated on
Caleb and he's by the way, he is building real
rapport here with his offensive set. I think the Bears
defense is pretty well coached. Again, it's a numbers game.
I think if Jaden Daniels plays, it will be mass protection.

(55:35):
It will be a game in which they coach him
more safely, they call a game differently. He's the difference
in the franchise, and I think it's one of these
games you look at and you think, listen, if we
had to not play him, I mean, he hasn't practiced
this week. Even if he practices Friday, you kind of

(55:56):
wonder what you get. I like Chicago minus two and
a half here a pretty strong play Sharper square.

Speaker 4 (56:04):
Yeah, that's the sharp side. And look, the betters are
are almost literally banking on the idea that Jaden Daniels
isn't going to play in this game because he hasn't practiced,
and there is a there is a massive difference between
Jaden Daniels and Marcus Marrioll. Yes, the Commanders have only
punted twelve times this season. That's tied with the Chiefs

(56:27):
for the fewest since nineteen fifty. They're perfect on fourth downs,
They're fifty percent on third down conversions. That is because
of Jaden Daniels. That is because of the threat that
he poses. That is because of what he can do
as both a very accurate passer and a good runner.
Without that, this is a different team. It stresses the defense,

(56:51):
which isn't very good even from a statistical point of view,
but they don't look as bad When Jayden Daniels is
converting fourth downs and converting third towns. There's fewer up
ortunities for the opposing offense to get on the field
and score points. Kayley Williams has been a brilliant quarterback
the past four weeks, and by the way, in the
second half, he's covering the spread at a rate that

(57:13):
is only compared only matched by Patrick Mahomes right now.
So this coming off of by this team in this spot,
it is a really good time to bet the Bears
at minus two and a half. The wise guys are
with you.

Speaker 1 (57:31):
The Eagles are the only team in the league that
hasn't scored in the first quarter, and that matters when
they go on the road to face Joe Burrow. Joe
Burrow when he doesn't have to throw but chooses to throw,
is as good as any quarterback in this league. All
quarterbacks when they're in a hole, face a different defensive.

Speaker 2 (57:52):
Test.

Speaker 1 (57:53):
Philadelphia, if they score, doesn't take big leagues. They're probably
the most underachieved offense in the league based on personnel
and productivity. So here's a team in Cincinnati which has
shown an ability to start quickly. I think Philadelphia has
got much better players, but at minus two and a half,

(58:16):
basically season on the line, with Baltimore winning Pittsburgh winning,
this is the season for Cincinnati at home. I only
give up two and a half against what I think
is one of the more poorly coached teams in the league,
yet one of the best rosters. I'll take the Bengals
minus two and a half. Sharper square, totally sharp.

Speaker 4 (58:35):
The public is on the Eagles, and this line has
moved up. That's called the reverse line move. When the
line moves in the opposite direction of where the majority
of the bets are. That tells you the professional betters
are coming in on the side of the team that
the line moved in the direction of. That is the
Bengals open to two. It's now at two and a half.

(58:55):
This is a bet on Joe Burrow. Yep, that's all like.
He's twenty two two, six and one against the spread
when facing a team that just covered. Overall in his career,
he's sixty three percent. He's seventy percent against teams that
are over five hundred. The challenge here is everyone should
be and has been, concerned about the Bengals defense. But

(59:18):
two things. The Bengals defense has been really good defending
against the long pass and explosive plays. That's the best
way for the Eagles to win. We've seen it time
and again. When they get the explosive plays, that's when
they can break it out. The rest of the time,
their offense isn't very good. We even sought against the
Giants last week. So the pros are with you. They

(59:39):
are backing Joe Burrow.

Speaker 1 (59:49):
So you know. I love the number five. When a
team is favored by four and a half to five,
I feel like it's a graveyard for books that they
don't want to go to the that number. But they're
kind of trapped. So San Francisco's at home. Dallas has
not matched up well against better teams. Now Deebo had
pneumonia as a pro athlete, I think he's available Sunday.

(01:00:11):
I think Jennings is available. Jordan Mason's the second leading
rusher in the league. He's a more than capable backup.
Teams that are well coached with talent that deliver a
stinker in the biggest TV game of the week always play.
It's an easy team to coach hard. They will play
a much better football game. They're limited. No Brandon Ayuk,

(01:00:33):
no Christian They're limited. But I think they feel they
not only lost to the Chiefs, they were kind of embarrassed.
It was really a bad performance. I'm going to swallow
the four and a half and take the Niners at home.

Speaker 4 (01:00:45):
Sharper Square, Well, you said something there that is a
little bit too flip and dismissive. No Brandon Ayuk, no
Christian McCaffrey. They might not have Deebo sam Will because
the guy has pneumonia, like he was in the freaking hospital.
If you look at Brock Perdy's production, a third of

(01:01:09):
his production during the time he's been starting has been
going to Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk. If you include
Deebo Samuel, fifty percent going to those three guys. You
take away those three guys, and you know what you
get Brock Purdy and what he did against the Kansas
City Chiefs. Like Ricky Pearsall is not Brandon I jo.

Speaker 1 (01:01:32):
I don't know if Rickey Pearsall can play right.

Speaker 4 (01:01:35):
Ronnie Bell is not Deebo Samuel. It doesn't matter how
hard Kyle Shanahan coaches these guys this week. If they
can't play, they can't play. So that's the real issue.
It's why the wise guys took the Cowboys at six
and a half, took them at five and a half
took them at five down to four and a half.

(01:01:55):
This thing's going to four. I would not be surprised
if it's at three and a half by because the
wise guy money is coming in on the Cowboys, and
that's Ethan. With all the chaos of Jerry Jones calling
out Mike McCarthy, who he could have fired after the
Packers blew out the Cowboys, and now he's upset with

(01:02:17):
McCarthy's play calling. The Cowboys are still inside. By the way,
McCarthy thirteen three and one off of the buy against
the spread.

Speaker 2 (01:02:26):
Okay, so a game.

Speaker 1 (01:02:27):
I want your opinion on this. It seems easy. So
when Malik Neighbors was out or Cavon Thibadeaux for the Giants,
it sounds alarming. But the player that really decides the
fate of this team is Andrew Thomas. When bad quarterbacks

(01:02:48):
don't have a left tackle, they get hideous fast. The
Giants are now last year's Giants, right. They competed without
Malik with Dexter Lauren, they compete without Thibadeau. I don't
think they're a competitive football team. So I get the
Steelers for the record. The second half against the Jets

(01:03:10):
twenty four to nothing New York scott players. It was
a little old Russell Wilson. He's now got a deep threat,
a run game, Arthur Smith, he had protection moving well.
We know the defense and motivations there. I know it
doesn't feel sharp, but Pittsburgh minus six hosting a Giants team.

(01:03:30):
Shane and Dable have been given assurance by the owner.
You're not going anywhere. It's not a frenetic behind the
scenes thing. Neither wants Daniel Jones. I cannot bet Daniel
Jones stand alone on the road without his left tackle.
It feels like the minus six is sharp. Steelers Sharper square.

Speaker 4 (01:03:52):
It's eh, Like, no one's really interested in this game.
If it wasn't a primetime game, it'd be the Core
TV game because the Giants are that bad. And you're
right about Andrew Thomas, like we've talked about this. When
I'm handicapping and doing analysis, the first thing I'm looking
at is the offensive line. One of the reasons I

(01:04:13):
like the Bengals against the Eagles is because Jordan Malata
is out and he's being replaced with a guy named
Fred Johnson. He gives up his pressure rate as a
left tackle is twenty two percent against opposing defensive ends.
The average is six percent. Offensive lines dictate your ability
to run the ball, protect the quarterback. Score. It's why

(01:04:34):
I love the Lions so much. It's why we love
them so much. Last weekends the Vikings, it's why we
hate them. We hate the Giants against the Eagles. I
hate the Giants against the Steelers too. It's not a
great spot like a team that's been blown out against
a team that did the blowing out. That's a bad
formula if you want to be a better it's very

(01:04:56):
public to take the Steelers right now. I'm not saying
it's the wrong side, but it's not the sharp side.

Speaker 1 (01:05:01):
Okay, there's always a game. I'm interested in your opinion.
Jets minus seven at New England. They humiliated New England
the first time. Drake may look pretty good last week.
The Jets are a circus. I mean it's they look
like they're significantly worse on defense without their best coach,
Robert Sola. He was their best coach. They're not as

(01:05:22):
good in the two games defensively without him. Offensively, the
first game they used motion. Aaron Rodgers doesn't like it.
By the second game with the new coordinator, their motion
was cut in half. That is so Aaron. He doesn't
like motion. He wants to go to the line, keep
it clean, all make the call. It's begging me to

(01:05:42):
take New England. Tell me where I should go.

Speaker 4 (01:05:47):
Well, if you want to bet this game, which you
shouldn't want to, and you definitely should not want to
make it one of your blazing five because you're on
a streak right now, you take New England. Right, You've
got Drake May, he's proving he can throw the ball.
You've got a depleted Jets secondary, which we saw last week.
Like every single play I felt like another Jets player

(01:06:10):
was going out. Even Sauce Gardner got banged up a
little bit in last week's game. But you don't want
to play this game. There are four big ish underdogs
this week, the Jets, the Titans, the Browns, the Raiders.
There are two games wise, guys want to play the underdogs,

(01:06:30):
one game they completely want to ignore, and one game
in which they want to play the favorites, The Patriots
Jets is the game they want to ignore.

Speaker 1 (01:06:38):
All right, you always give me a game that I
missed completely? What say you?

Speaker 4 (01:06:44):
Well, look, we talked about some good ones since the
Indie I love those games. We talked about Chicago. We
haven't talked about Cleveland and Las Vegas and their matchups
against the Ravens and the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (01:07:00):
I can't stomach both. Just give me one, pick one.

Speaker 4 (01:07:03):
It's so hard, Like the wise guys love them both.
At this point, you're better off just betting the number,
and like it's a little bit more of a number,
higher number with the Raiders and the Chiefs than it
is with the Browns and the Ravens. I lean If

(01:07:23):
I have to choose only one of them, I lean Browns.
I think they're closer to getting better. And again subscribing
to the theory that if I'm going to bet on
a really bad team that is a big underdog, I
want that team to at least have one dominant unit.
And the Browns do have a dominant defensive end in

(01:07:45):
Miles Garrett, who wasn't even on the injury report this week.
They have a dominant cornerback and Denzel Ward, who's been
playing great all season long. The Ravens do give up
a lot of points this most points in the second
half this season. Along with the Titans, So there is
an opportunity for Jamis if he decides to go crazy

(01:08:06):
in the second half, for them to pull off a
backdoor cover. I worry about the Raiders. Mahomes has a
bad record as a favorite of more than three, but
that record has been getting better the past two seasons.
He's nine six and one against the spread as a
favorite of more than three the past two seasons. So
you got to look at it not just holistically, but

(01:08:27):
in some recency. And this team, they're turning the ball over,
they can't get off, they can't stay on the field
on third down. I just worry they're not going to
have that many opportunities to score against the Chiefs defense
that is pretty good. So the one thing they have
going for them is brock Bauers has the most receptions

(01:08:49):
for a rookie tight end since two thousand and the
one thing the Chiefs haven't been able to do this year.
They couldn't guard Kittle, they couldn't guard Isaiah Likely, they
couldn't guard Mike. For the Bengals, all of them had
either close to one hundred or just under one hundred
yards receiving, but none of them won the game. So

(01:09:10):
I lean Browns. If I have to choose one of them,
I don't want to, but that's what I would do.

Speaker 1 (01:09:17):
By the way, Packers minus three and a half at
the Jaguars screams Jags, doesn't it?

Speaker 4 (01:09:22):
Yes on it Screamshags so much it's moved from four
and a half to four to three and a half.
I think at three and a half you're sort of
at the bleeding edge of what the wise guys would do.
They're really not that interested in it, but they would
still do it because they're getting the hook. But you
missed the best of the number on that one.

Speaker 1 (01:09:41):
Yeah, all right, Chad Miller. You want to talk about
the Lions, Well, they played a brilliant football game, and
so I don't think teams play perfect back to back.
So let's discuss the number. So my rule, the biggest
number on the board I throw out. I don't want
to be a sucker. Detroit minus eleven and a half

(01:10:05):
hosting Tennessee, so you're off a huge, intense divisional game.
Tennessee is a seller now near the trade deadline, they're
moving off people. That worries me in the locker room.
You know, Detroit's a better team what say you on
the line eleven and a half. That's a college line.

Speaker 4 (01:10:23):
Yeah, it's massive, and I'd almost always ignore it. But
I have bet the Lions, full disclosure, I bet him
at ten and a half. I don't hate at eleven.
This game is power rated by professional betters closer to
thirteen or fourteen. But the bookmakers know they can't post
a thirteen, they can't post a fourteen. They'll immediately get

(01:10:46):
money on Tennessee at that big of a number, and
it's totally realistic for the game to land around, you know,
thirteen or fourteen. But again it goes back to the
offensive line. This is a dominant team. Is the best
team in the NFC, bar Nutt. They are on a
collision course with the Chiefs to play in the Super Bowl.

(01:11:11):
Jared Goff is the best quarterback against the spread in
the NFL the past several seasons. The Lions the past
four seasons seventy against the spread. That is an unmatched
trend for them other than the New England Patriots of
their middle aughts dynasty, Middle teams dynasty. So I don't

(01:11:33):
hate the Lions here. If I'm betting any of the
big favorites it's going to be on the Lions fair.

Speaker 1 (01:11:40):
Enough, Chad Millman, Sharper Square, get better, Get well, my friend.

Speaker 4 (01:11:45):
Thank you sir.

Speaker 1 (01:11:49):
The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed
the podcast, take a moment rate and review

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Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Rams Making A Comeback? Lamar Jackson “Best Football Player On The Planet”, Russ Outplays Aaron, Betting NFL Week 8

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