Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:16):
How are you welcome into a Friday morning episode of
the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Parralt. You guys
can follow me on all of my socials at Sports
Talk Matts, and at least for a day, the hate tweets,
slash comments, slash dms go away. This is what's been
happening for me. I don't know why. Monday Tuesday have
(00:39):
been awful. Wednesday's a flip of the coin. Thursday, Friday,
Saturday have been pretty good. We bounced back with a
three and oh night. We swept the board last night.
Vermont and UNBC both come in Detroit and Minnesota goes over.
That was the play of the day. Orlando Charlotte way under.
I mean my gosh, Orlando coming back after the international trip.
They had no legs as so we go three and oh,
(01:02):
up three units and we are right back into the week.
So this is what we're still down for the week.
But you that's a pretty big dent in what we
were down. So we can have a winning week. We
need to keep rolling here on a Friday into a
Saturday into a Sunday. I will be honest. I don't
like the card today. Okay, I'm not in love. I've
(01:24):
got a two leg money line parlay that includes UFC
three twenty four. I am going to UFC three twenty four.
So the card tomorrow is going to be pretty heavy
with combat sports. It's going to be on Paramount Plus,
so I think a lot of you are going to watch.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
And it's easier.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
It's ninety dollars a year now to watch all the
numbered pay per view events versus it was seventy dollars
per month just to watch those UFC events. So three
twenty four is the first one. We've got two big
fights at the top with Song Dong in the in
the comain with Sean O'Malley, and then you've got the
(02:02):
main event with Patty Pemlet and Justin Gatchee. So for
the interim lightweight belt, there's a lot of interesting fights
and cool things to get into. But I've got a
prelib fight that I want to give you guys here
on a Friday, combined with a basketball game here for tonight,
there's an NBA play and then there will be an
NBA player prop on the Betting pros app by. You
(02:24):
can find it by downloading the Betting Pros app. First,
download the app. Every time I do this, you guys
are asking me how to do this or listen. Okay,
down on the app, go and search at sports Talk Matt. Okay,
it will come up. Click on my bio and you
will see active bets. You will see then hit the
little bell so you guys can be learned. Whenever those
(02:46):
bets get placed, but NBA player prop one of them
will be on the app coming up here for tonight.
Before we get into the picks for Friday, let's remind
you that it is still open. The autographed Jackson Smith
and JIGBA helmet the mini helmet signed by JSN thanks
(03:07):
to our friends at Pristine Auction dot com. We will
give this away coming up in a couple of weeks
once we hit February.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
To win this, it's very easy.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
All you have to do is be a subscriber to
this YouTube channel for Betting Pros and leave a comment
on this video and you will be entered in to
win the autographed mini helmet signed by j s N
thanks to our friends at Pristine Auction. Subscribe comment and
you are in. We will pull a name later on
(03:34):
in the month of February for who's going to win
this for the month of January. Okay, let's talk MBA
Milwaukee and the Detroit Sorry in the Denver Nuggets.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
There's a couple of good games tonight.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
I mean there's a couple of games that I really
took a long heart and look look at, and I
thought about getting involved in a couple of different NBA games,
and maybe I will personally because there are some numbers
that I do that are iman Houston in Detroit's a
phenomenal basketball game. I'm gonna be watching that game. The
numbers four and a half for Detroit, I do lean
towards the Pistons, but the Pistons just played the Celtics
(04:09):
and the number was very similar. It was two and
a half, three and a half four. Boston lost by one.
So I don't know how much I want to lay
the points with Detroit against Houston, because well, I'm gun
shy because the Rockets spurned me earlier this week with
the game against the Spurs. We got Okay, see at
home against Indiana laying a really big number. The Celtics
(04:31):
are on the road against the Brooklyn Nets, the same
Brooklyn Nets team that got annihilated by the Knicks earlier
this week. So do I want to lay eight and
a half points with Boston? No, I don't. So I
want to look at Denver and Milwaukee. Now, Denver is
still without Jokic. He will not play for a while.
We don't know exactly how long he'll be out for
with the knee injury. But since he's been out, Denver
(04:54):
is seven and five to the under in the twelve
games that he has been out. Now Milwaukee is favored
in this game, which is somewhat surprising. They're laying six
and a half points. Opened up at five, it's now
six and a half. But the total is where I
want to go here. So with Jokich, I mean over machine,
(05:15):
just absolute over machine. But since Yokich has been out,
this is not the same Denver Nuggets offense. So you know,
if you look at the games on the road they
have played without Yokich, they against Cleveland, the game went
under by nineteen and a half points, Brooklyn and Philadelphia
both went over. Boston on the road went under by
(05:36):
six and a half points. The game against excuse me,
and game against New orleand Dallas both went over, and
their last game against Washington at two twenty seven and
a half went under by twenty three and a half points.
On the flip side, Milwaukee is now just a dead
under team. Milwaukee over their last ten games is seven
and three to the under. They're four and one to
(05:57):
the under over their last five games. They're ten and
ten at home. But this Milwaukee team just isn't scoring
all that much, and frankly they're playing defense. I mean,
most of their games are really low. Milwaukee played on
the road at Denver on the eleventh of January and
the final score was one oh eight to one oh four.
(06:19):
Under came in by six and a half points. That game,
the total was two eighteen and a half. This total
is two twenty one and a half opened at two
twenty three and a half already has been bet down.
I just think we keep riding the train here and
riding this trend of, you know, Denver being an under
team and Milwaukee being an under team. This season, Milwaukee
(06:43):
is twenty six and seventeen to the under now Denver
is twenty seven and eighteen to the over. But a
lot of that obviously earlier in the year when they
had Jokic on the floor. So without Jokich, they're an
under team. Three games in a row have gone under
for both these teams, Milwaukee and Denver. Let's bet the
streak here and come in with the under two twenty
(07:05):
one and a half for Milwaukee and Denver at minus
one ten. Now let's talk about this parlay. We'll start
with the UFC. That's tomorrow night. Okay, tomorrow night, not tonight.
But Josh Hokitt is an interesting fighter that I had
Brendan Fitzgerald, who will be on the desk for the
UFC coverage here in Vegas next week, not this week,
(07:28):
but next week. He'll be here for the fight over
in Australia or New Zealand. I forget where UFC two
thirty five is going to be held. It's going to
be held in uh let's see. Sorry, two thirty five
is being held in Sydney. Okay, yeah, so in South Wales.
(07:48):
Volganovski against Lobus So that's gonna be our Lopes. He
mispronounced his name, but that's gonna be a hell of
a fight. So he's on a desk for that. But
he was on my he was on BVB, my other show,
and he said that one fighter to pay attention to
is this Josh Hokit Kid. Why well, he has fought
two times, both times in the Apex.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
He hasn't fought in front of a big crowd yet.
This will be the first time he will do that.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
He won his first fight back in August of twenty
twenty five. He was able to on the Dana White
Contender Series. He won in the second round with a
ko for elbows, and then he was on the Fight
Night card for back in November and he had a
first round knockout in fifty six seconds. Huge amazing performance
(08:35):
for him on a Fight Night card which I believe
was at the Apex.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
But I believe that fight was at the Apex.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
So now he's at Tiamobile Arena fighting and getting Las Vegas.
But he's fighting in front of thousands of people and
a lot of people millions potentially on paramount plus. He
is fighting a guy named Denzel Freeman who is seven
and one professionally. But he has this one fight in
the UFC that was back in November as well. That
fight went the distance. He won the fight, but it
(09:04):
went the distance all three rounds. Any won by decision.
This hok It kid. When he wins, he raps like legit,
like he writes out an individual rap and he gets
on the microphone. One of the things that Brendan talked
about was the fact that the UFC and Paramount they're
(09:25):
going to push personality. They want big personality. They want big, big,
big personality. And so I always look at narrative, right,
I always look at and say, okay, what do what
benefits the company? Okay, it sounds very wwees, but according
(09:45):
to Brendan, that's really what. Look at the promos. You know,
they're pushing personality, they're pushing storyline, they're pushing guys who
are going to talk on a microphone and entertainment, you know,
to entertain the crowd. That is Josh Hokitt, who is
really relatively you know, a mild manner type of kid,
but until he gets in the he's a heavyweight. But
when he gets in the octagon, something just flips. Now,
(10:09):
the tail of the tape is pretty interesting here. He
has a four inch reach advantage. However, hok It, with
strikes landed per minute five point one freeman absorbs way
too much damage in my mind. Two point zero seven
strikes absorbed per minute. In the heavyweight division. You go
to sleep if you get hit that often. That is
(10:31):
not a good stat for him. Takedown defense average twelve
takeout takedowns per fifteen minutes. So Hoke can do it
on the feet or he can do it on the mat.
He may go for either or Takedown accuracy isn't great,
it's about forty six percent. But Freeman really hasn't been attempted.
No one is attempted to take him down. His last
fight just stood up on the feet. So we don't
(10:53):
really know how good Freeman will be if he gets
taken down. We know hok It will try. He may
not get the submission, but he did it with elbows
on his first fight, was able to stop the fight
by getting on top and ground in pounds. That might
be his path to victory here against Freeman. I'd rather
not lose a fight by going into like some little
like you know, nuance to take a prop market or other.
(11:14):
Just take money line, but it's too expensive. It's minus
two hundred, so it's two dollars for Hok. He's a
big favorite, so I'm gonna pair it up. What am
I gonna pay it? Up with Well tonight, Marquette's on
the road against Butler. We have faded Marquette before, we're
gonna fade Marquette again. Marquette is four fifteen and one
against the spread this year. Marquette is one six and
(11:34):
one ats on the road this year, and while Butler's
only five and six against the number, if you take
a look at money line, they're eight and three at home.
On the money line, Marquette has not won a game
on the road yet, they're oh and eight this number.
If you want to lay the six and a half
(11:55):
or seven points, which is primarily the number right now.
According to kempom, this is a ten point win for Butler,
so I would expect some money to come in here
on Butler to drive this number a bit higher. But
if you want to lay the points, lay the seven points.
A hokit money line combined with Butler minus seven or
(12:15):
six and a half is a plus one seventy five bet.
So it just depends upon how much you want to
get involved. I've been ice cold for a couple of
weeks now, so I'm not going to push my luck
here and have Butler just win the game and not
cover I'll just take money line, but there is a
way if you want to make it into a plus
money bet, there's a way of doing that. Lay the
seven points here with Butler at home against Marquette. I mean,
(12:39):
the numbers are bad. Marquette offensively is awful. They're three
hundred and eighth and three point shooting. They are two
hundred and fifty fifth and two point shooting. They are
three hundred and twelve in three throw shooting. They are
two hundred and eighty fifth in effective field goal percentage. Offensively,
they're one hundred and thirty first in an offensive adjusted efficiency.
(13:00):
It's it's just a whole lot of bad on offense
for Marquette. Butler, on the other hand, defensively they're pretty
much middle of the pack, but they're good enough to
stop Marquette. And then at on offense, Butler is a
top sixty offense for efficiency. There are top one hundred
offense for effective field goal percentage. They're not great shooting threes.
(13:20):
There are one hundred and fifty seventh. But when they're
at home at Hinkle, Hinkle's a gigantic home and on
our Friday night on Fox Sports One, it's gonna be
an awesome atmosphere and Marquette's walking into a really difficult environment.
I'm gonna lay money line here, but again, you can
lay the seven points if you want to make this
into a plus one seventy five bet, but I'm just
gonna officially, I'm gonna take Hoke in Butler money line
(13:42):
at minus one sixteen for one point one six units.
As I mentioned one NBA player probably found on the
app later on today. Denver and Milwaukee under two twenty
one and a half is the other play. If you
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Speaker 1 (14:04):
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(14:27):
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Speaker 1 (14:31):
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Your first deposit today with the hard Rock Bet app.
Min's Matt Parolti you guys and following me across all
of my socials at Sportstoc Matt every morning wherever you
guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
It is the Daily Juice as