Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Good Saturday morning, guys. How are you welcome into another
episode of the Daily Juice podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
My name is Matt Perrault.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at Sports Talk Matt, and we are here for NFL
Divisional Round weekend. Two games on Saturday, two games on Sunday.
The live stream will hit you leading you up to
kickoff of the first game. It's going to be a
three o'clock Eastern times start, a noon Pacific time start
(00:46):
for myself and Andrew Erickson. Get ready for the Patriot
talk between the two of us on our live stream.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
But I won't be the.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
Last time we did this, I was in New Hampshire.
This time I'm in Vegas. He's still in Massachuset. So
we'll do that coming up for an hour and fifteen minutes,
taking you up to kickoff between the.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Bills and the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
So today I'm going to add to the card that
I gave you on Wednesday for Saturday.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
I got a couple of player props and I've got a.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Teaser to tell you guys about and a strategy as
to how I'm going to play these games. So stay
tuned for that We have got a lot of cool
stuff coming because I'll give you more player props on
the live stream. Also the player props of the games
on Sunday, we'll give it to you as well, so
we'll dive deep. We'll give you sides and totals and
(01:42):
picks and parlays and all sorts of fun stuff coming
up at three o'clock Eastern time with myself and Andrew Ericsson.
Before I give you the plays for today, let's tell
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Speaker 2 (01:54):
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Speaker 1 (01:57):
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Speaker 2 (02:01):
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Speaker 2 (02:47):
Okay, more on the championship game on Monday. We'll get
to that later. Let's talk.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
So I have already given you out Broncos money line
Seattle minus seven.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Okay, so now what are we going to do? What
we're going to add? First?
Speaker 1 (03:03):
I think this is obvious as to what to do
with the very interesting marketplace that we have here for
rushing in terms.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Of where we are.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
For this Broncos offense and what this Broncos offense is
going to do against the Buffalo Bills defense because they
cannot stop the run. I am taking the Broncos to
win this game because I believe that they're going to
run the football. I believe that they're going to protect Bonnicks.
I believe they're not going to ask Bonicks to do
very much.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
A lot of screen.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Passes, a lot of draws, a lot of just conservative
play calling and then riding the defense and making Josh
Allen have to be superman to go into Denver at
altitude on a short week and beat the Denver Broncos.
Last year, Denver whipped the Broncos in the playoffs, but
(03:59):
that was with the rookie corps and a better offense
for Buffalo. Frankly, so now you have the Bills on
the road against this Broncos defense that's better than they
were last year, and frankly, Sean Payton not very happy
about what happened last year.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Sean Payton.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
I gave you the stat last week, or give it
to you again, Sean Payton with extra rest, Sean Payton
is four to zero in the playoffs straight out, two
and two against the spread. But this number is one,
so it's you know, money line minus one.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
I think RJ.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
Harvey is going to get the football a lot today.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
I think RJ.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Harvey is going to be asked to carry a lot
on this on his head. Frankly, fifty four and a
half is the market low shop around. Most books are
at fifty five and a half, some are at fifty
six and a half. But you can find fifty four
and a half in the marketplace. You have to go
back to the game against Green Bay in which Denver
(04:58):
was a one point dog for this number of yard
age to be picked up back in week fifteen by RJ. Harvey,
sixty five yards he ran in that game. He ran
for seventy five on the road against Vegas. He's had fifty,
forty three and twenty eight yards the last three games.
But what in the world, I mean, think about this
(05:20):
for a second. If you're the Broncos and you and
you're practicing right, you're getting ready for this Bills defense,
Like what are you doing. You're going to work on
the running game. You're going to want the running game
to be as effective as possible. You're gonna want to
run him as much as you can. The Bills are
allowing the fifth most rushing yards on the ground per
(05:43):
game this season. Like they just get gashed in the
on the ground. I just this is just one of
those things, Like I think bo Nicks could pick up
a bunch of yards running as well. But I look
at this game, I look at the game plan and
it's kind of like too easy. But I'm gonna bet
it anyway, Like it just it has to be RJ.
(06:05):
Harvey over fifty four and a half rushing yards. Because
of the Bills being thirty first in DVOA versus the
run during the regular season, they give up the six
most rushing yards to running backs five yards per carry
to running backs.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
They don't have a great run stopper.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
And even with Ed Oliver coming back and that's been
like everyone's like, you know, and but at Oliver okay
off of a bicep injury, who knows how healthy he's
gonna be, how many snaps he's gonna have. I mean,
I think from a pass rushing perspective, having Ed Oliver
might be a bigger deal than having him stop the run.
(06:44):
But even when they had ed Oliver in there, they
were still giving up big plays here. So I just
expect the Bills to give up big yardage on the
ground because they're trying to confuse bo Nicks in the
secondary and hide their coverage.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
I like RJ.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Harvey over fifty four and a half rushing yards for RJ.
Harvey for one point one units, and then I'm gonna
take a little bit of a chance here. So Josh
Allen rushing attempts are set at FanDuel and other books.
At eight and a half, it's plus money. So Josh
(07:23):
Allen's averaging eight point eight carries, attempts rushing attempts in
his playoff career. Last year he played three games, he
ran the ball twenty nine times. The year before he
played two games and he ran the ball twenty times.
So last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, he ran the
(07:43):
ball eleven times eleven attempts, so he's averaging basically like
ten attempts in the postseason. In the playoff game last
year against the Broncos, he had eight, but that was
a blowout, so he didn't need to do very much
and he's still had eight carries at plus money. To
(08:06):
have Josh Allen carry the ball with nine attempts, I
think yardage might be good as well. I mean, but
they may have a spy on him and they may
try to bottle him up and not let him go
off for big yardage. And like I think it's set
like thirty five thirty six yards, so that's a little
bit scary. I mean, he's averaging about thirty three thirty four,
thirty five yards per game on the ground, so I
(08:27):
don't really want to get involved with that. But attempts
is just scrambling him, getting pressured him getting across the
line of scrimmage to run the football as a rushing attempt.
If we get nine of those, we get plus money.
I think that's a good look. I think that's a
decent way of getting involved in the prop bet market.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
And at plus money, I can't turn that down.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
I think that that's you know, that's just one of
those things where I looked at it because we have
a new tool that's coming out that I'm gonna tell
you about later, but it's market based EV and the
market based EV tool really likes this bet for Josh Allen,
just simply on the value side of it. It is
a value play at plus one twelve on FanDuel, and
(09:12):
other books have it as plus as well at over
eight and a half. Seven and a half is heavily juiced,
so the numbers eight. Books assume the numbers eight. But
let's get one extra one and let's take a shot
here on Josh Allen putting the cape on and trying
to run the football a ton here today and Josh
Allen to go over eight and a half rushing attempts
at plus one twelve for one unit. Now there is
(09:37):
one teaser that I want to play and I want
to explain. So here's the thing. The forty nine ers
are the most heavily bet side of the day. Everyone's
taking the points and I'm laying the points. So let's
just say I'm wrong. I've been wrong quite a bit.
What if I build a middle for myself here, because
(10:01):
I don't believe that if I put fifty two points
up for the Bills in the Broncos, I don't think
we're going over. In fact, I know a lot of
people like the under in the game. Overall it's at
forty six six point teaser, you put up to fifty two?
Are we getting fifty? Were getting fifty three points out
of the Broncos who really can't score? I mean, are
the Bills going to score thirty points? Like if they
(10:23):
score thirty points, how many points of the Broncos go
score forty seven? I mean, sorry, sorry, seventeen to make
it go forty seven or twenty? No, thirty to twenty.
So I have a hard time seeing the Bills scoring
thirty points in this game, even though they did last
year against these Broncos. So let's just say the Bills
score twenty four points. I like the Broncos to win
the game, so that would be twenty seven to twenty four, right,
(10:47):
fifty one points. You go to fifty two and we're under.
That game goes over, but it goes under our teaser.
So I'm going to tease the game up to fifty two.
But then I'm gonna the forty nine ers and go
up to thirteen and give the Niners thirteen. So there's
a middle there. We need Seattle because remember we have
(11:12):
a fourteen to one ticket on both sides. Okay on
both sides, so fourteen to one Seattle, fourteen to one
San Francisco. So either team that wins, I'm good.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
I mean, we have a team in the NFC Championship Game.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
We will be able to hedge off of that coming
up here on in the next round. But if Seattle
wins by seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve, or thirteen
in there, as long as the first game goes under
fifty two, which I think it will, we.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
Cash that we hit that.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
It also gives us some protection in case the Niners
win the game. If the Niners somehow shocked the world,
then Kyle Shanahan somehow pulls a miracle and Sam Darnold
turned back into a pumpkin and he has the worst
game of his life. And the forty nine Ers somehow
with Robert Sala and it's banged up defense, they go
to Seattle and they snap this ten game winning streak
(12:07):
for Seattle at home. We have some protection there with that.
You don't have to trail this. This is just me, Okay,
this is what I'm betting. This is my own gamification here,
making a middle between seven and thirteen for the Seahawks
to win. And it'd be fine. If they blow out
the forty nine Ers, we have the minus seven. If
(12:29):
the Niners keep it close and they cover that seven
point line, we have the thirteen. The only thing that
burns us is if Buffalo and the Bills gets into
a really high scoring shootout type of game. But I
just don't think that's gonna happen. I don't think the
Broncos are capable of getting into a shootout, nor do
I think that they want to get into a shootout.
So I think the game may go under forty six,
(12:50):
so we may not even need to tease it. But
I want that thirteen points for the forty nine ers,
So I like that side to go ahead and do that,
so I'm taking a shot.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
It's the last.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
We don't have any more games on Saturday for football
after today. Let's have some fun, all right. Plays for
today Broncos on the money line, the Seahawks minus seven
r J Harvey Harvey over fifty four and a half
rushing yards, Josh Allen over eight and a half rushing
(13:21):
attempts at plus money and the Broncos under fifty two
teased to fifty two take the under and the forty
nine ers catching thirteen points for our six point teaser
for the day. I will talk to you at three
pm Eastern Time with myself and Andrew Ericson for our
live stream on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Minus Matt
(13:44):
Perrault follow me across all my socials at Sports Talk
Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts. It
is the Daily
Speaker 2 (13:50):
Juice Sunday Sundry funded to be f