Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Happy Sunday, guys, what's up? Welcome into a new episode
of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perrault. You
guys can follow me across all of my socials at
Sports Talk Matt, and we come to you following what
should have been a three to oh day. I don't
know we're taping here late. It's like ten thirty on
(00:35):
the West Coast. But I'm not going to be stunned
if we wake up to the news that Matt Lafleur
has been let go by the Green Bay Packers after
one of the biggest chokes in the history of the
NFL playoffs, being up by eighteen points in the second half,
and the play calling was unreal. You can talk about
(00:58):
the kicking game all year, want missed field goal, missed
extra point, But that team in the second half was
that was coaching malpractice. That was coaching with both hands
around your throat and squeezing. I don't understand it. I
don't get what was going on. I don't know why
(01:20):
they were running. They were throwing the ball as much
as they were throwing the ball. Run the ball. I
don't care if it's two three yards you're up by
three make the Bears use clock and use their timeouts,
giving them the football back without having them burn all
their timeouts. It's just coaching malpractice. I don't understand. I
know you weren't running the ball effectively, but I don't
(01:42):
care if you're running a bunch of QB sneaks. Made
no sense. We had a we had a good day.
The Carolina game flew over. That was easy, easy w
byu Utah, easyw flew over Packers up by eighteen. That
was the day I needed. I needed a three and
(02:04):
oh day because then we'd be going here into Sunday
with If we go three and two, we would probably
have a winning week. So up point nine it puts
us in range if we have a good day to
day we can have a winning week. We had just
kind of a paper cut type of week, and so
point nine is better than losing obviously, and makes up
(02:26):
for the days where we went one in one right,
we had two of those, so we make up for that,
and then it cuts into the depsit. We had a
couple of one in two days, so it cuts into that.
But a three in all mark would have wiped all
that out and we would head to Sunday with we
had a winning day, we had a winning week, so
it's still a possibility to have a winning week. But
that was that was a frustrating day, a frustrating loss.
(02:47):
Green Bay Packers. Oh my gosh, long off season in
Green Bay, Wisconsin, cold winter after that loss. But on
the flip side, congrats to the Bears, Congrats to Caleb Williams.
I still think Ben Johnson is not a very good coach,
and I still think he makes ridiculous play calls and
I but I mean, if they play the Eagles next
week at home, I mean, we'll see who winds up
(03:09):
getting there, right, because the four nine ers win today,
if they beat the Eagles, they're going to San Francisco
and the Rams will go to the Bill to the Bears.
So we're going to see how it plays out. Lowest
remaining seed winds up going to Seattle. So the Rams win,
they're the five seed. The Bears win, they're the two seed.
So if the Niners win as the sixth seed, they're
(03:30):
going to sand for the to Seattle. If the Eagles
win today, the Eagles are the three seed. They're going
to the They're going to Chicago, where I think the
Bears could beat the Eagles. I do. I think the
Bears could wind up in the NFC Championship game. So
this is big when you when you're the two seed.
I think having home field, I think could be pretty
significant for the Bears. So we'll see how that all
(03:53):
plays out coming up here for today. So what we've
got for you, I've already given you two bets for today. Okay,
We've already given you the Payots minus three and a
half and the Jaguars on the money line. Those bets
aren't moving. Those bets are there now. Yesterday I gave
you two plays on the live stream that we're going
to make official here for the Daily Juice. Now, unfortunately
(04:14):
this number right now is unavailable, but I'm going to
take the forty nine Ers at plus six and a half. Okay,
here's my thought behind this. The forty nine Ers are
seven and two ats on the road this season. They're
going to have Trent Williams back, which I think is
huge for Christian McCaffrey running the football and for Brock
(04:37):
Party to have time to throw to George Kittlin company.
This Niners offense was red hot before last week, and
yes I know what the Seahawks did to them, but
I think this is Kyle Shanahan. This is a six
and a half point line that I got. It went
to six and a half, it's been be back down
to six. I still don't mind it. I still don't
(04:58):
mind it now. I have also teased this down to
the Eagles on a money line, and I've created kind
of a middle for myself with this. But officially, you know,
I do a lot of teasing, and I do a
lot of kind of playing around with stuff that I
wouldn't really recommend, so I don't make it part of
the official card all that often. I know I've sort
of made my mark and I've sort of made my
(05:19):
name by betting teasers. But if you've noticed this season,
we haven't been nearly as aggressive with Wong teasers and
nearly as aggressive teasing games because simply the books have
priced it out and made it too expensive to really
make it a smart decision to tease. But also we
just you know, sometimes you just don't need it, like
it's unnecessary, So just bet the game straight and if
(05:41):
it covers, it covers. If it doesn't, it doesn't, it
wouldn't have mattered if you tease it or not. It's
the old adage about the ever you know, disappearing point
spread in the NFL, like you don't really need to
worry about it, you just bet money line, right. So
there's a lot of that going on here in the playoffs.
But both dogs covered yesterday, Anther's covered easily. Bears covered
(06:02):
the one, one and a half. Whatever number you bet
for Chicago, either you laid one one and a half
or took one or one and a half didn't matter.
Bears covered every one of those numbers. So we move
on here today where the Jaguars are laying one and
a half. I like the favorite there. I got it
at a pick even money, so money line even money
picked Jaguars Patriots. That number hasn't budged. It's amazing, it
(06:24):
just hasn't moved. I think it may close at four.
I think there's going to be late money coming in
on the Patriots, but we'll see how it plays out.
The weather is not going to be a problem. It's
going to be balling in forty five degrees in Foxborough.
So for mid January, that's a huge break, massive break
for a West Coast Dome team. To play in prime time,
not in frigid temperatures in Foxborough, So mother Nature not
(06:47):
doing the Patriots any favors with the weather. But the
Patriots as three point favorites are more this year with
Drake May playing quarterback or ten and zero straight up,
they're eight and two against the spread, taking the Patriots.
So for the forty nine ers, we don't know about
Lane Johnson, Okay, he is a legit game time decision,
(07:07):
so is Ricky pearsall he is a straight game time decision.
But Trent Williams is in. He's playing, and once they
cleared Trent Williams, I had the six and a half
and I'm good to give it you guys. Officially, I'm
taking the forty nine ers here at plus six and
a half. So for straight plays here today Jaguars money line,
Patriots laying three and a half and the forty nine
(07:29):
ers at plus six and a half. One prop bet
to give you guys, and there is a hard rock
bet of the day as well. But I'm gonna look
at Parker Washington for the Jaguars and his receptions. He
has gone over four and a half receptions in three
consecutive games at Denver at Indy and home against the Titans.
He said five eight and six receptions. While the Bills
(07:54):
pass defense is very good, their run defense is not
very good, but their pass defense is very good. I
do think the receptions angle is one to look at,
and if he goes for five, we get plus money
on this. And Parker Washington has become such a big
weapon for this offense, and they're at home. He was
targeted nine times last week he had eighty seven yards
(08:17):
and a touchdown. He continues to wrack up a lot
of yards. He had six hundred and forty yards receiving
in four touchdowns over the final nine games. Jacoby Myers,
Brian Thomas Junior. These guys are big weapons, and the
defenses tend to focus upon Myers and Brian Thomas Junior,
and they've sort of left Parker Washington alone. I like
(08:39):
Parker Washington over four and a half receptions and you
get plus money. This number has come down. People are
fading this and taking the under three and a half
is over minus one eighty. So I'm not interested in
doing that for a prop bet, but I'll take a
flyer on Parker Washington to have five receptions. Here today
for the Jaguars offense and to have him go over
(09:00):
this four and a half five receptions and we get
we get over coming up on this. So Parker Washington
over four and a half receptions at plus one twenty time.
Now for the hard Rock Bet of the day. It's
being brought to you by our friends at hard Rock Bet.
It is the NFL Playoffs. These guys are the presenting
sponsor of the Daily Juice podcast and we really appreciate
(09:24):
their support and what they have meant to us here
throughout the entire football season. If you guys have options,
and we know that you do. One way of taking
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(09:45):
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it out and download the new hard Rock Bet app
and make your first deposit to day. Okay, let's talk
about the hard rock bet of the day. Bills Jags
(10:30):
over fifty one and a half. Why well, the Jaguars
and the Bills down the stretch both went four and
one to the over. The Bills on the road against
the Patriots went over by sixteen and a half points.
Against Cleveland on the road went over by two points.
(10:50):
Their last game against the Jets at home went over
by them scoring thirty five points. The Philly game at
home went under by twenty. But this is a team
that on the road. Even though they went five and
three to the under on the road, their last two
road games both went over. On the flip side, Jacksonville
also went four and one over their last five games
(11:10):
to the over, and at home they went four and
four against Tennessee. Their last game, they went over against Indy.
It went under on the road. Denver, though went over.
The Jets went over, Indianapolis went over. And it's because
of the offense and the points they have put up
this Jacksonville Jaguars team in terms of where they are
(11:31):
to their own individual point team total, they've been dominant
with their point individual team total they have scored. They've
gone way over this year consistently, and it's been a
decent play. If you want to bet the team total
over for Jacksonville, it's not a horrible angle to look
at this. The Jags have scored twenty three or more
(11:53):
points in ten straight games entering the playoffs, with their
defense allowing twenty points or less for six straight. That
is dominant here, absolutely dominant. For where the Jacksonville Jaguars
have been over the second half of the year, they've
been to a tremendous team. I said twelve and four.
Jaguars are thirteen and four to their team total over
(12:14):
this year. That's the best mark in the NFL. They're
entering the playoffs with a twelve and five ATS record.
That's the best ATS mark in franchise history. The Patriots, Rams,
Jags all enter the playoffs with a seventy plus ATS
win percentage. Since twenty seventeen, teams with a seventy plus
ATS win percentage or just three and eleven ATS, make
(12:38):
that three and twelve with the Rams not covering. But
I'm on the Jags and I'm on the Patriots, so
you know I'm going to go against that trend because
of just how red hot the Jags and the Patriots
have been. Yes, I know playoff football is different, but
for this game, hard Rock bet of the Day, we're
going with the over fifty one and a half at
(12:58):
minus one ten for the Bills and the Jags. So
full play today here for Sunday Jaguars money line, even money,
Patriots laying three and a half even money forty nine
ers plus six and a half for one point one units.
I don't mind teasing that and taking the Eagles Parker
Washington over four and a half receptions at plus one
(13:19):
twenty and the hard Rock bet of the Day Bills
and the Jags over fifty one and a half at
minus one ten. I don't mind it if you take
that number and you go Eagles money line. Pull it
down Eagles and then take the total at fifty one
and a half and pull that down and go over
at forty five and a half six point teaser. I
don't mind that. Different ways you can play it. Jaguars
(13:39):
team total, don't mind playing that either. So you have
a lot of options here with three bets, with three games.
I'm giving you all this. Because there is no live
stream today, you can go back and watch it. We
did it yesterday Betting Pros YouTube channel. Go check it out.
You guys can see what Pat fitz Morris and I
talked about and how we broke it all down. Sorry
for Pat, I was on the Packers. He was very
nervous about that game, but he was dead set on
(14:01):
the over and he was completely right. I trailed him
on that. That game flew over, so that was good.
I also punted it out of that game for the Packers'
money line or minus one. I was on the Discord
channel and after that missed field goal, I said, bet
the Bears. I had minus one ten on the Bear's
money line when I had and grabbed it on that
for the Bears to win. That cashed and got us
(14:21):
out of that bet. For the Packers, laying one, So
not a bad day for me yesterday with basketball coming
in and the over coming in for the Bears, over
coming in for the for the Panthers and the Rams
as well, so good Saturday. Hopefully we can kind of
continue that and stack up two back to back good
days today here on Sunday minus Matt Parol. You guys
(14:42):
can follow me across all my socials at Sports Talk
Matt every morning wherever your guys get your podcasts. It
is the Daily Juice until pas death desp.