January 18, 2026 • 20 mins
A 3-2 mark on Saturday for host Matt Perrault has him eyeing a winning week if he can have a big Sunday. Matt is loading up for one of the last Sunday's of NFL football for the latest episode of the Daily Juice presented by Hard Rock Bet.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Sunday morning
episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Perrault.
We are here every single morning and you guys can
follow me across my socials at Sports Talk Matt if
you'd like to hear my ramblings during these games, which
could be of an epic variety with the Patriots playing
(00:35):
in the divisional round. We yesterday had a three and
two day, so a slight winning day. We'll take it
up point seven to three units. The Broncos get there.
More on that came in a second. The Seahawks annihilated
the forty nine ers. We had already lost the under
in the Broncos games, so the teaser didn't matter. That
(00:56):
wasn't possible. R J. Harvey did not run for over
fifty four and a half yards, but Josh Allen did
go over eight and a half rushing attempts, so we
got the plus money play on that. So it's a
three and two day up point seventy three units, which
has kind of been the story of the week. When
we're winning, we're winning small. When we lost big, we
lost we lost big. When we were down zero to
(01:18):
three on Tuesday. So we're still trying to climb out
of that hole, but we are slowly doing that. If
we have a big day today, we can have a
winning week here on a Sunday. Now, a couple things.
Bonick's breaking his ankle on the second to last play
of the game is a horrible, horrible thing for the Broncos.
(01:38):
And if you are a Bronco fan, I feel for
you because Jared Stidham. Look, Jared Stidham was given two
contracts by Sean Payton. Okay, he was one of the
first guys brought to Denver by Sean Payton. He clearly
sees something in the former Auburn quarterback and the former
Patriot quarterback. I've just him. And in the NFL he's
(02:03):
a backup quarterback. Okay, You're playing with a backup quarterback
in the AFC Championship game. That has never happened. Okay,
it's never happened. So without Bo Nicks, I don't know
what the number is going to be. But if it's
the Texans, if they beat the Patriots today, you gotta
think that the Texans are going to be favored against
the Broncos. The total is gonna be like thirty or
(02:26):
thirty one. It's gonna be ridiculous. If it's the Texans
against the against the Broncos for a right to go
to the super Bowl. I can tell you the NFL
does not want the Texans in the super Bowl and
they do not want the Broncos in there now without
bon Nicks. So this is going to be a very
interesting day in game. On the AFC side, the NFC
(02:46):
is going to be a heavy favorite. If it's Seattle
and they beat up on the forty nine ers tonight,
and if they play either the say they to the
Bears win today and Seattle gets Chicago next weekend for
a chance to go to the super Bowl, you gotta
like the Seahawks. Chances a lot there Seahawks would go.
It would be Seahawks against the Texans or the Broncos.
(03:10):
Which if it's Broncos Seahawks, what's the number eight and
a half nine? I mean this is this has the
potential to be an epic game. If it's Patriots Rams,
Patriots Seahawks, or Patriots Bears. There are storylines in all
(03:30):
three of those games, Okay, And I'm not saying that
the Patriots being there is great for the NFL, but
it is better than the Texans, and it's better than
the Broncos, I can tell you right now. Okay, there's
more people who are going to be hate watching that
to see how the Patriots are doing and cheering against
the Patriots than it would be for a Texans team
that is really boring. Defensively talented, but very boring. And
(03:54):
then you got a Broncos team that without bon Nicks
rather their star quarterback. Yikes, there's just not a lot
of heat there on the AFC side. It's weak anyway.
There's three teams left, and all three are pretty weak.
Let's be frank. All three are going to be dogs
against the Seahawks. They would be most likely dogged against
the Rams as well, but the Patriots have recently beaten
(04:17):
the Rams in the Super Bowl. They have recently beaten
the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, and everybody in New
England has nineteen eighty five on their minds if they
are my age. If you're asking me who I want
to play, I want the Bears. A Bears Patriots super
Bowl is unbelievable from a storyline perspective. The Super Bowl Shuffle,
(04:40):
the first ever prop bet was made in that game
with the fridge Perry would he or would he not
score a touchdown? Our guys, Jimmy Viccaro here in the
desert put that up and it did incredible handle and
the bet market was born. Okay, the storylines for the
Bears with Jim McMahon and the Peyton family and the
(05:02):
Walter Payton family would be just unbelievable. You pull out
Steve Grogan and Tony Easen and Moises to Tupu and
Craig James in Irving Fryar and Andre Tippett like I'm
nine again. Okay, I'm nine years old watching this. I
would love Bears Patriots in the Super Bowl. So would
the country. Okay, the country would be epically excited about
(05:25):
that game. Rams Patriots would be interesting. Patriots are two
and oh against the Rams that started the whole thing.
You know. They beat McVeigh thirteen to three, and one
of the biggest lop set it upsets in sports betting
history in terms of the first win and then the
second win. Everybody bet over, every single under and every
prop bet went under the books cleaned up in that
(05:45):
thirteen to three Super Bowl win for the Patriots over
Sean McVay, so they're two and oh against them. And
then obviously you've got, you know, arguably the most famous
ending other than the twenty eight to three comeback. You ask, like,
what was the most memorable Patriots Super Bowl Championship was?
You know, the Malcolm Butler interception where they didn't give
the ball to Beast Mode and Pete Carroll thought he
(06:08):
was smarter than everybody else and wanted to give Russell
Wilson the game winning touchdown and instead it was picked
off and the Patriots won the game. And that moment,
I mean in terms of like insane endings, in terms
of crazy finals. It would be amazing to have that
game get replayed again with Mike McDonald and now with
(06:29):
Mike Vrabel for the Patriots and the Seahawks. So there's
a lot there. But the Pats have to win today
and I'm not so sure they're going to win today. Okay,
But one more thing, and I know everyone's talking about
the catch or interception? What was it with Brandon Cooks?
Look the ball was moving, Okay, And it really comes
down to what side of this are you on? I
(06:52):
am a Jets and Bills hater. Okay, I hate the Jets,
I hate the Bills. Okay, I watch it, and maybe
my bias is involved here, and it probably is. But
the ball was moving, okay, so it would have been
an incomplete pass except it was intercepted. And when the
ball is moving and then the two players are fighting
(07:14):
over it and the ball goes into the defender's hands,
that's an interception. And you can freeze frame it all
you want, okay, but you can't freeze frame it because
the freeze frame doesn't matter. It matters as to whether
or not the ball was moving, and in my estimation,
in my opinion, it was. Now if you want to
talk about the way it went down from a mechanical standpoint,
(07:36):
as to whether or not it was reviewed enough, whether
or not the eye in the sky took its time
back in New York to make the right call, if
you want to say that that was a problem, sure,
But the call in the field was interception, So to
overturn that I think would have been really difficult. So
to me, I think they got the call right. The
(07:58):
other issue are the passing interference calls on the last drive,
the drive that ultimately Bonux broke his ankle on on
the second to last play where the flags came out.
In my opinion, there should have been three flags, not two.
It's like the referees gave the Bills one like, Okay,
if you're going to tackle the wide receiver, we're gonna
(08:21):
give you one option. Okay, we'll give you one freebie.
The second time you do it, we're flagging you. The
third time we're doing it, we're flagging you. I don't
care if Javius White it's throwing his helmet and yelling
at referees. The dude tackle the wide receiver. Okay, you
got there early. You can tell me that the calls
should have been made earlier in the game. And the
(08:43):
inconsistencies of the calls are the problems, which I would
agree with. That has been my problem with refereeing forever.
Now it's two inconsistent. But if you're asking me whether
or not those calls were passing interference on the Bills,
I would have thrown flags on three of them, not two.
Three of them. So I think they got away with one.
(09:04):
And so all the crying about the fifty six yards
of penalty yards, that's embarrassing.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
How do you do that? Blah blah blah blah blah.
It's easy.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
They committed fowls and a fowl on the last drive
or the fowl in the first quarter, it's still a foul.
So my problem with the whole thing of saying like
it shouldn't have been called because it wasn't called earlier.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
It's like, what are you going to do? That's putting the.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
Broncos at a massive disadvantage. It's not fair for the
Broncos like that. That is not that's not legal. You
can't tackle the wide receivers.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
I'm sorry. So I didn't have a problem with it. Okay.
It sucks for Josh Allen.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
He now has eight wins with eight playoff wins without
an appearance in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
That's the most of all time.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
I feel for the guy. He was crying at the podium.
He's a good guy, you know, starting his young family
in the you know, I feel for him. He just
happens to play for a cursed franchise. That's just life, Okay,
it's what happens. There's plenty of you know, great players
that played for the Cavaliers during the Jordan years. Like
sometimes you're just on the wrong side. I mean, ask
(10:07):
the Utah Jazz, right, it stinks when you're on that
team that just can't win because other teams have better
superstars and they winning.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
You don't.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
And you're a Hall of Famer, you're an unbelievable quarterback,
but you're not going to Unfortunately in this current cycle,
You're just not going to win a super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
There's just too much in the way. It's too difficult
for you.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
Maybe he'll get it later, maybe he'll get it with
a different team, but he wants to do it in Buffalo.
I just don't think he's going to the rest of
the conference is getting better and the Bills are getting worse.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
So and the same thing with the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
It's the same story, right, both those teams, their windows
aren't closed, but they're close.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
Zing.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
Okay, on to today. Let's talk about the two massive
games left here Sunday, two games Division round. I've already
given you the Texans plus three as a hedge on
the Patriots future. Okay, so we lost the forty nine
ers yesterday, we lost the Jaguars. As I told you,
(11:08):
we're going to count that for last year's mark and
we're going to have these all go into twenty twenty
five because that's when those futures were placed.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
So we will take the futures. We're not going to
report it on twenty six.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
We're gonna report on a twenty five, but we'll do
that after this season is over to put a closing
touch on twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (11:26):
So we're down two units.
Speaker 1 (11:27):
Jaguars in the forty nine, Ers, Patriots and the Seahawks
are left. If that's your super Bowl, we're golden, Like
we are straight up golden, and I hope, I pray
that that is our super Bowl. But I am going
to put Houston Texans plus three play and the under
forty one in play for today for these teams. Now,
(11:48):
I do have a hard rock bet of the game,
bet of the day that I'll give you guys in
a second, But these prop bets I gave out earlier
yesterday on the live stream with Andrew Erickson, so it's
going to be a little bit of a repeat. So
I'll go kind of quickly on this because a lot
of you guys have already seen this stuff. Okay, Texans
plus three, Patriots under forty one, the Bears plus four.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Here, Poka Nakua.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
Over one hundred and four and a half rushing in
receiving yards. Yes, I know the weather's going to be cold. Yes,
I know there's gonna be a little wind, but they're
going to get the ball to Pooka as much as possible.
And I really do think that Pooka is going to
have a big game receiving here. And I think they
could run some screen, some sweeps with him getting in
the football as many ways as possible. But I just
(12:34):
don't think the Bears are going to be able to
defend Pokin Nakua. He's the best wide receiver in the game.
I expected to have a big game for the Rams.
Pooka over one oh four and a half rushing and
receiving yards. And then the Woody Marks, Andrew Erics and
I are on opposite side. Andrew's on under sixty yards.
I'm on over fifty one and a half yards. It's
a pretty big discrepancy. Okay, he got a better number,
(12:56):
but by the time this number was been all the
way down to fifty one and a half. The Patriots
defense is very good.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
I've been talking about it all week about how good
the Patriots defense is when they're fully healthy. But let
me ask you something. If you are, and we saw
it with RJ. Harvey, I thought they gave up. I
thought the Bills gave up, you know, some runs to RJ. Harvey,
but they really I couldn't believe how much they were
passing the Broncos. I was stunned. I don't think the
(13:22):
Texans will do that without Nico Collins. You're asking CJ. Stroud,
a guy who should have lost last week. Okay, the
way he played, with the offense played, they should have lost.
They were down seven, they were up seven to six
at the break. Because the Steelers' offense is inept in awful.
The Patriot offense is not inept, It's not awful. So
(13:43):
you are you gonna have to keep up with what
the Patriots are going to do. But I don't think
Patriots score a ton. Maybe seventeen twenty points here, but
that's a lot for this Texans offense without Nico Collins.
I don't know what else you do besides running what
he marks. You have to run the football. And the
Patriots won't give up seventy five yards, But do I
think they give up like fifty five fifty six yards?
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Rushing.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Yeah, I don't think that's an incredibly crazy number. So
I can win my bet by going over fifty one
and a half, and Ericson can win his bet by
going under sixty and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
So that's a very big possibility.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
So I just think the number got to got so
darn low it dropped all the way down to fifty
one and a half that I was like, you know what,
I don't know what else they're going to do here.
The Texans have got to run the ball like they
have got to play and try to move the football
as much as possible. So to me, I'm gonna go
ahead and jump on it and take Woody Marksen go
kind of against our own guy Eran Andrew Erickson.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
I get the theory.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
I had the same theory until the number just kept
dropping and dropping and dropping, and I'm like, wait a minute,
there's way too much money here coming in on the
under for this guy. Fifty one and a half is
on a very big number from a rushing perspective. So
I just, you know, almost like on a principle play here,
I had to come in and I had to jump
in on him over fifty one and a half yards
(14:58):
rushing so plays Texans plus three under forty one Patriots
Texans Bears plus four.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
If you want the full breakdown.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
Of those games, go ahead and look back on Thursday's
Daily Juice. Pooka over one oh four and a half
rushing and receiving and marks over fifty one and a
half rushing yards against the Patriots defense. Now, before I
give you the hard Rock Bet play of the day,
let's talk about hard Rock Bet. They are they're presenting
sponsor of the Daily Juice podcast, and we've got a
(15:27):
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Speaker 2 (15:31):
Miami is in it.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Hard Rock Bet is the location, sorry, hard Rock Stadium
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(15:53):
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Speaker 2 (16:13):
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Speaker 1 (16:15):
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Speaker 2 (16:25):
This is a theft. I'm stealing this.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
So the Rams don't do well against against slot receivers
and Luther Burden has become this weapon for the Bears offense.
He's been really, really effective, and I think with the
number of receptions being at two and a half, I
mean against the forty nine ers he had eight. Against
the Lions, he had three, against Green Bay he had three. Okay,
(16:53):
we need three catches for him here. The books don't
want to go to three and a half because if
they do, you're going to this go into the under.
People are gonna bet the under. But he's got the
prop bet cheat sheet is projecting four receptions, it's a
seventy eight percent cover probability, a plus twenty nine inspected
value in a five star play on the prop bet
(17:14):
cheat sheet. He's gone over this number eight of twelve
games for Luthor Burden, and I think against this Rams defense,
you're gonna see Kayleb Williams really look to Luthor Burden,
trying to get him the football as much as possible.
Here the number you can shop around, but mostly it's
about one miss one fifty five miss one fifty seven.
It's a little juicy, but because I've missed back to
(17:36):
back bets here for the hard rock bet of the day,
let's go ahead and do it. This is a great
read by Andrew Erickson. I'm gonna tail it. We're gonna
put it on the hard rock bet of the Day.
Luthor Burden over two and a half receptions at minus
one fifty seven for one point five to seven units.
That record is eleven and eight for the prop bet
(17:57):
cheat Sorry for the hard rock bet of the day,
so hopefully we can get back on the winning track
here after losing a couple of the bets. Luthor Burden
over two and a half receptions at minus one fifty
seven here for the hard rock bet of the day. Okay,
so hard rock bet of the Day Luthor Burden over
two and a half receptions and Texans plus three under
(18:18):
forty one, Bears plus four, Pooka over one oh four
and a half and the Marks over fifty one and
a half rushing. If you want to tell me about
the Rams, and the Rams are going to do what
the Seahawks did to the forty nine Ers tonight, look
at it could be.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
I said it on the live stream.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
I thought, either the Niners win or the Seahawks blow
out the forty nine Ers. I kind of feel the
same way. Either the Bears win or the Rams win
this game by ten to fourteen points, and it's very possible.
But it's why I'm not teasing it because I thought
about doing the same game teaser. I thought about pulling
the number down from forty eight and a half, pulling
(18:56):
it down to forty two and a half and betting
the over and giving the Bears ten points. But the
reason why I'm not is because I think if the
Rams do end up covering the four, I don't think
this game's close. I think this is an absolute run
out here by LA and they dominate the Bears, or
the Bears will have a kick at the end of
the game to win it. Now they might miss it,
(19:17):
but they got a kick to win the game and
maybe be down by two, a kick to win it
and they lose the game by two.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
Rams don't cover the four.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
That's how I think the point spread comes into play here.
But the Bears, I think if we're covering the four,
the Bears will have a chance to be in the
game to win the game outright. Obviously, live betting is
your friend. I was heavily, in fact heavily active on
the Discord channel. I'll be so again today with live
bets talking about when to jump in. I took the
Bills plus one and a half. I took the Broncos
(19:47):
plus three and a half. Bills didn't hit Broncos did
so kind of watch it till they're out. So I'm
pretty heavily active on the Discord channel. Bettingpros dot Com
slash chat to join for that should be a lot
of fun. I'm going to be a mess if the
Patriots win this game and beat the Houston Texans, which
I think if you look at where the pro money is.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
It's going to be a very interesting day.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
It's going to be a very very interesting day on
the Patriots because if they win, they play at Denver
against Jared Sidham, their former quarterback, with a chance to
go to the Super Bowl, which is crazy to stop
and think about. My name's Matt Paroltz. You guys can
follow me because all my socials at Sports Talk Matt
every morning. Wherever you guys get your podcasts, it is
(20:32):
the Daily Juice.
Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Sunday morning
episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Perrault.
We are here every single morning and you guys can
follow me across my socials at Sports Talk Matt if
you'd like to hear my ramblings during these games, which
could be of an epic variety with the Patriots playing
(00:35):
in the divisional round. We yesterday had a three and
two day, so a slight winning day. We'll take it
up point seven to three units. The Broncos get there.
More on that came in a second. The Seahawks annihilated
the forty nine ers. We had already lost the under
in the Broncos games, so the teaser didn't matter. That
(00:56):
wasn't possible. R J. Harvey did not run for over
fifty four and a half yards, but Josh Allen did
go over eight and a half rushing attempts, so we
got the plus money play on that. So it's a
three and two day up point seventy three units, which
has kind of been the story of the week. When
we're winning, we're winning small. When we lost big, we
lost we lost big. When we were down zero to
(01:18):
three on Tuesday. So we're still trying to climb out
of that hole, but we are slowly doing that. If
we have a big day today, we can have a
winning week here on a Sunday. Now, a couple things.
Bonick's breaking his ankle on the second to last play
of the game is a horrible, horrible thing for the Broncos.
(01:38):
And if you are a Bronco fan, I feel for
you because Jared Stidham. Look, Jared Stidham was given two
contracts by Sean Payton. Okay, he was one of the
first guys brought to Denver by Sean Payton. He clearly
sees something in the former Auburn quarterback and the former
Patriot quarterback. I've just him. And in the NFL he's
(02:03):
a backup quarterback. Okay, You're playing with a backup quarterback
in the AFC Championship game. That has never happened. Okay,
it's never happened. So without Bo Nicks, I don't know
what the number is going to be. But if it's
the Texans, if they beat the Patriots today, you gotta
think that the Texans are going to be favored against
the Broncos. The total is gonna be like thirty or
(02:26):
thirty one. It's gonna be ridiculous. If it's the Texans
against the against the Broncos for a right to go
to the super Bowl. I can tell you the NFL
does not want the Texans in the super Bowl and
they do not want the Broncos in there now without
bon Nicks. So this is going to be a very
interesting day in game. On the AFC side, the NFC
(02:46):
is going to be a heavy favorite. If it's Seattle
and they beat up on the forty nine ers tonight,
and if they play either the say they to the
Bears win today and Seattle gets Chicago next weekend for
a chance to go to the super Bowl, you gotta
like the Seahawks. Chances a lot there Seahawks would go.
It would be Seahawks against the Texans or the Broncos.
(03:10):
Which if it's Broncos Seahawks, what's the number eight and
a half nine? I mean this is this has the
potential to be an epic game. If it's Patriots Rams,
Patriots Seahawks, or Patriots Bears. There are storylines in all
(03:30):
three of those games, Okay, And I'm not saying that
the Patriots being there is great for the NFL, but
it is better than the Texans, and it's better than
the Broncos, I can tell you right now. Okay, there's
more people who are going to be hate watching that
to see how the Patriots are doing and cheering against
the Patriots than it would be for a Texans team
that is really boring. Defensively talented, but very boring. And
(03:54):
then you got a Broncos team that without bon Nicks
rather their star quarterback. Yikes, there's just not a lot
of heat there on the AFC side. It's weak anyway.
There's three teams left, and all three are pretty weak.
Let's be frank. All three are going to be dogs
against the Seahawks. They would be most likely dogged against
the Rams as well, but the Patriots have recently beaten
(04:17):
the Rams in the Super Bowl. They have recently beaten
the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, and everybody in New
England has nineteen eighty five on their minds if they
are my age. If you're asking me who I want
to play, I want the Bears. A Bears Patriots super
Bowl is unbelievable from a storyline perspective. The Super Bowl Shuffle,
(04:40):
the first ever prop bet was made in that game
with the fridge Perry would he or would he not
score a touchdown? Our guys, Jimmy Viccaro here in the
desert put that up and it did incredible handle and
the bet market was born. Okay, the storylines for the
Bears with Jim McMahon and the Peyton family and the
(05:02):
Walter Payton family would be just unbelievable. You pull out
Steve Grogan and Tony Easen and Moises to Tupu and
Craig James in Irving Fryar and Andre Tippett like I'm
nine again. Okay, I'm nine years old watching this. I
would love Bears Patriots in the Super Bowl. So would
the country. Okay, the country would be epically excited about
(05:25):
that game. Rams Patriots would be interesting. Patriots are two
and oh against the Rams that started the whole thing.
You know. They beat McVeigh thirteen to three, and one
of the biggest lop set it upsets in sports betting
history in terms of the first win and then the
second win. Everybody bet over, every single under and every
prop bet went under the books cleaned up in that
(05:45):
thirteen to three Super Bowl win for the Patriots over
Sean McVay, so they're two and oh against them. And
then obviously you've got, you know, arguably the most famous
ending other than the twenty eight to three comeback. You ask, like,
what was the most memorable Patriots Super Bowl Championship was?
You know, the Malcolm Butler interception where they didn't give
the ball to Beast Mode and Pete Carroll thought he
(06:08):
was smarter than everybody else and wanted to give Russell
Wilson the game winning touchdown and instead it was picked
off and the Patriots won the game. And that moment,
I mean in terms of like insane endings, in terms
of crazy finals. It would be amazing to have that
game get replayed again with Mike McDonald and now with
(06:29):
Mike Vrabel for the Patriots and the Seahawks. So there's
a lot there. But the Pats have to win today
and I'm not so sure they're going to win today. Okay,
But one more thing, and I know everyone's talking about
the catch or interception? What was it with Brandon Cooks?
Look the ball was moving, Okay, And it really comes
down to what side of this are you on? I
(06:52):
am a Jets and Bills hater. Okay, I hate the Jets,
I hate the Bills. Okay, I watch it, and maybe
my bias is involved here, and it probably is. But
the ball was moving, okay, so it would have been
an incomplete pass except it was intercepted. And when the
ball is moving and then the two players are fighting
(07:14):
over it and the ball goes into the defender's hands,
that's an interception. And you can freeze frame it all
you want, okay, but you can't freeze frame it because
the freeze frame doesn't matter. It matters as to whether
or not the ball was moving, and in my estimation,
in my opinion, it was. Now if you want to
talk about the way it went down from a mechanical standpoint,
(07:36):
as to whether or not it was reviewed enough, whether
or not the eye in the sky took its time
back in New York to make the right call, if
you want to say that that was a problem, sure,
But the call in the field was interception, So to
overturn that I think would have been really difficult. So
to me, I think they got the call right. The
(07:58):
other issue are the passing interference calls on the last drive,
the drive that ultimately Bonux broke his ankle on on
the second to last play where the flags came out.
In my opinion, there should have been three flags, not two.
It's like the referees gave the Bills one like, Okay,
if you're going to tackle the wide receiver, we're gonna
(08:21):
give you one option. Okay, we'll give you one freebie.
The second time you do it, we're flagging you. The
third time we're doing it, we're flagging you. I don't
care if Javius White it's throwing his helmet and yelling
at referees. The dude tackle the wide receiver. Okay, you
got there early. You can tell me that the calls
should have been made earlier in the game. And the
(08:43):
inconsistencies of the calls are the problems, which I would
agree with. That has been my problem with refereeing forever.
Now it's two inconsistent. But if you're asking me whether
or not those calls were passing interference on the Bills,
I would have thrown flags on three of them, not two.
Three of them. So I think they got away with one.
(09:04):
And so all the crying about the fifty six yards
of penalty yards, that's embarrassing.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
How do you do that? Blah blah blah blah blah.
It's easy.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
They committed fowls and a fowl on the last drive
or the fowl in the first quarter, it's still a foul.
So my problem with the whole thing of saying like
it shouldn't have been called because it wasn't called earlier.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
It's like, what are you going to do? That's putting the.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
Broncos at a massive disadvantage. It's not fair for the
Broncos like that. That is not that's not legal. You
can't tackle the wide receivers.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
I'm sorry. So I didn't have a problem with it. Okay.
It sucks for Josh Allen.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
He now has eight wins with eight playoff wins without
an appearance in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
That's the most of all time.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
I feel for the guy. He was crying at the podium.
He's a good guy, you know, starting his young family
in the you know, I feel for him. He just
happens to play for a cursed franchise. That's just life, Okay,
it's what happens. There's plenty of you know, great players
that played for the Cavaliers during the Jordan years. Like
sometimes you're just on the wrong side. I mean, ask
(10:07):
the Utah Jazz, right, it stinks when you're on that
team that just can't win because other teams have better
superstars and they winning.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
You don't.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
And you're a Hall of Famer, you're an unbelievable quarterback,
but you're not going to Unfortunately in this current cycle,
You're just not going to win a super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
There's just too much in the way. It's too difficult
for you.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
Maybe he'll get it later, maybe he'll get it with
a different team, but he wants to do it in Buffalo.
I just don't think he's going to the rest of
the conference is getting better and the Bills are getting worse.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
So and the same thing with the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
It's the same story, right, both those teams, their windows
aren't closed, but they're close.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
Zing.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
Okay, on to today. Let's talk about the two massive
games left here Sunday, two games Division round. I've already
given you the Texans plus three as a hedge on
the Patriots future. Okay, so we lost the forty nine
ers yesterday, we lost the Jaguars. As I told you,
(11:08):
we're going to count that for last year's mark and
we're going to have these all go into twenty twenty
five because that's when those futures were placed.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
So we will take the futures. We're not going to
report it on twenty six.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
We're gonna report on a twenty five, but we'll do
that after this season is over to put a closing
touch on twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (11:26):
So we're down two units.
Speaker 1 (11:27):
Jaguars in the forty nine, Ers, Patriots and the Seahawks
are left. If that's your super Bowl, we're golden, Like
we are straight up golden, and I hope, I pray
that that is our super Bowl. But I am going
to put Houston Texans plus three play and the under
forty one in play for today for these teams. Now,
(11:48):
I do have a hard rock bet of the game,
bet of the day that I'll give you guys in
a second, But these prop bets I gave out earlier
yesterday on the live stream with Andrew Erickson, so it's
going to be a little bit of a repeat. So
I'll go kind of quickly on this because a lot
of you guys have already seen this stuff. Okay, Texans
plus three, Patriots under forty one, the Bears plus four.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
Here, Poka Nakua.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
Over one hundred and four and a half rushing in
receiving yards. Yes, I know the weather's going to be cold. Yes,
I know there's gonna be a little wind, but they're
going to get the ball to Pooka as much as possible.
And I really do think that Pooka is going to
have a big game receiving here. And I think they
could run some screen, some sweeps with him getting in
the football as many ways as possible. But I just
(12:34):
don't think the Bears are going to be able to
defend Pokin Nakua. He's the best wide receiver in the game.
I expected to have a big game for the Rams.
Pooka over one oh four and a half rushing and
receiving yards. And then the Woody Marks, Andrew Erics and
I are on opposite side. Andrew's on under sixty yards.
I'm on over fifty one and a half yards. It's
a pretty big discrepancy. Okay, he got a better number,
(12:56):
but by the time this number was been all the
way down to fifty one and a half. The Patriots
defense is very good.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
I've been talking about it all week about how good
the Patriots defense is when they're fully healthy. But let
me ask you something. If you are, and we saw
it with RJ. Harvey, I thought they gave up. I
thought the Bills gave up, you know, some runs to RJ. Harvey,
but they really I couldn't believe how much they were
passing the Broncos. I was stunned. I don't think the
(13:22):
Texans will do that without Nico Collins. You're asking CJ. Stroud,
a guy who should have lost last week. Okay, the
way he played, with the offense played, they should have lost.
They were down seven, they were up seven to six
at the break. Because the Steelers' offense is inept in awful.
The Patriot offense is not inept, It's not awful. So
(13:43):
you are you gonna have to keep up with what
the Patriots are going to do. But I don't think
Patriots score a ton. Maybe seventeen twenty points here, but
that's a lot for this Texans offense without Nico Collins.
I don't know what else you do besides running what
he marks. You have to run the football. And the
Patriots won't give up seventy five yards, But do I
think they give up like fifty five fifty six yards?
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Rushing.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Yeah, I don't think that's an incredibly crazy number. So
I can win my bet by going over fifty one
and a half, and Ericson can win his bet by
going under sixty and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
So that's a very big possibility.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
So I just think the number got to got so
darn low it dropped all the way down to fifty
one and a half that I was like, you know what,
I don't know what else they're going to do here.
The Texans have got to run the ball like they
have got to play and try to move the football
as much as possible. So to me, I'm gonna go
ahead and jump on it and take Woody Marksen go
kind of against our own guy Eran Andrew Erickson.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
I get the theory.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
I had the same theory until the number just kept
dropping and dropping and dropping, and I'm like, wait a minute,
there's way too much money here coming in on the
under for this guy. Fifty one and a half is
on a very big number from a rushing perspective. So
I just, you know, almost like on a principle play here,
I had to come in and I had to jump
in on him over fifty one and a half yards
(14:58):
rushing so plays Texans plus three under forty one Patriots
Texans Bears plus four.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
If you want the full breakdown.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
Of those games, go ahead and look back on Thursday's
Daily Juice. Pooka over one oh four and a half
rushing and receiving and marks over fifty one and a
half rushing yards against the Patriots defense. Now, before I
give you the hard Rock Bet play of the day,
let's talk about hard Rock Bet. They are they're presenting
sponsor of the Daily Juice podcast, and we've got a
(15:27):
huge game tomorrow in Miami with the National Championship.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
Miami is in it.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Hard Rock Bet is the location, sorry, hard Rock Stadium
is the location for this, and hard Rock Bet is
jumping all in this. They're giving ten dollars bonus bets
to so many people. If you're going to the game,
they're gonna give you a ten dollars bonus bet. If
you're going to be around the game, they're gonna give
you a ten dollars bonus bet. If you're out and
about in Miami today or tomorrow, they're gonna give you
(15:53):
a ten dollars bonus bet. Check the app as to
how you can claim that ten dollars bet, but my gosh,
are they getting heavy in Remember if you miss any
game after it tips off or kicks off. Live in
game betting is available at hard Rock Bet and the
first bet option is there five dollars. If it wins,
you get the winnings plus they'll give you one hundred
and fifty bucks in bonus.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Bets, parlays, live betting.
Speaker 1 (16:15):
So much going on this weekend at hard Rock Bet
and tomorrow with the National Championship game. Download the hard
Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
This is a theft. I'm stealing this.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
So the Rams don't do well against against slot receivers
and Luther Burden has become this weapon for the Bears offense.
He's been really, really effective, and I think with the
number of receptions being at two and a half, I
mean against the forty nine ers he had eight. Against
the Lions, he had three, against Green Bay he had three. Okay,
(16:53):
we need three catches for him here. The books don't
want to go to three and a half because if
they do, you're going to this go into the under.
People are gonna bet the under. But he's got the
prop bet cheat sheet is projecting four receptions, it's a
seventy eight percent cover probability, a plus twenty nine inspected
value in a five star play on the prop bet
(17:14):
cheat sheet. He's gone over this number eight of twelve
games for Luthor Burden, and I think against this Rams defense,
you're gonna see Kayleb Williams really look to Luthor Burden,
trying to get him the football as much as possible.
Here the number you can shop around, but mostly it's
about one miss one fifty five miss one fifty seven.
It's a little juicy, but because I've missed back to
(17:36):
back bets here for the hard rock bet of the day,
let's go ahead and do it. This is a great
read by Andrew Erickson. I'm gonna tail it. We're gonna
put it on the hard rock bet of the Day.
Luthor Burden over two and a half receptions at minus
one fifty seven for one point five to seven units.
That record is eleven and eight for the prop bet
(17:57):
cheat Sorry for the hard rock bet of the day,
so hopefully we can get back on the winning track
here after losing a couple of the bets. Luthor Burden
over two and a half receptions at minus one fifty
seven here for the hard rock bet of the day. Okay,
so hard rock bet of the Day Luthor Burden over
two and a half receptions and Texans plus three under
(18:18):
forty one, Bears plus four, Pooka over one oh four
and a half and the Marks over fifty one and
a half rushing. If you want to tell me about
the Rams, and the Rams are going to do what
the Seahawks did to the forty nine Ers tonight, look
at it could be.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
I said it on the live stream.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
I thought, either the Niners win or the Seahawks blow
out the forty nine Ers. I kind of feel the
same way. Either the Bears win or the Rams win
this game by ten to fourteen points, and it's very possible.
But it's why I'm not teasing it because I thought
about doing the same game teaser. I thought about pulling
the number down from forty eight and a half, pulling
(18:56):
it down to forty two and a half and betting
the over and giving the Bears ten points. But the
reason why I'm not is because I think if the
Rams do end up covering the four, I don't think
this game's close. I think this is an absolute run
out here by LA and they dominate the Bears, or
the Bears will have a kick at the end of
the game to win it. Now they might miss it,
(19:17):
but they got a kick to win the game and
maybe be down by two, a kick to win it
and they lose the game by two.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
Rams don't cover the four.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
That's how I think the point spread comes into play here.
But the Bears, I think if we're covering the four,
the Bears will have a chance to be in the
game to win the game outright. Obviously, live betting is
your friend. I was heavily, in fact heavily active on
the Discord channel. I'll be so again today with live
bets talking about when to jump in. I took the
Bills plus one and a half. I took the Broncos
(19:47):
plus three and a half. Bills didn't hit Broncos did
so kind of watch it till they're out. So I'm
pretty heavily active on the Discord channel. Bettingpros dot Com
slash chat to join for that should be a lot
of fun. I'm going to be a mess if the
Patriots win this game and beat the Houston Texans, which
I think if you look at where the pro money is.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
It's going to be a very interesting day.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
It's going to be a very very interesting day on
the Patriots because if they win, they play at Denver
against Jared Sidham, their former quarterback, with a chance to
go to the Super Bowl, which is crazy to stop
and think about. My name's Matt Paroltz. You guys can
follow me because all my socials at Sports Talk Matt
every morning. Wherever you guys get your podcasts, it is
(20:32):
the Daily Juice.
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