Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Thursday
morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is
Matt Perrelt. You guys can follow me across all of
my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we're back after
a winning day, a two in one day for us.
Last night we should have swept, but that was kind
of annoying. Texas Tech was fouling up big late in
that game that ended up with free throws pushing it over.
(00:38):
It fell one sixty two. We played under one sixty
and a half, so the hard rock bet of the
day drops to eleven and eight, but both of our
NBA player props came in. We took down two units there,
so it's up point nine units on the day for us.
On Wednesday, it is still not a good week. We
still need to get out of the hole, but it's
(00:59):
a winning day or first winning day of the week.
Monday loser, Tuesday loser Wednesday winter So three and oh
would have gotten us right back on track, but unfortunately
we go two and one there, so that was kind
of a bummer break, but up almost a unit, so
that cuts into the deficit a little bit. Now Thursday,
as I told you, I'm going to give you the
plays for Sunday, like we gave you the plays for
Saturday yesterday. So if you're curious about the bets for Saturday,
(01:23):
go back to Wednesday's podcast Thursday. Here today, I'm going
to give you the bets for Sunday. Then I have
two NBA player props which will be on the app
coming up later on today. When two and oh yesterday,
Let's see if we can do it again here today
for us, So just two bets going. I don't love
anything with college basketball or the NHL today, so we're
(01:44):
going to avoid both of those bets and just take
some NBA player props and keep us rolling because obviously
over the last two years that has been an extremely
profitable thing for us to do with the prop, bet
chie sheet and other things factoring the bets. So that's good.
Let's keep it rolling. Two plays going for today. I've
got three bets for us coming up on Sunday, and
(02:06):
then two player props tonight, and then we'll go to
tomorrow for a Friday and we'll figure out what we're
going to do for Friday. Tomorrow. Live stream will happen
on Saturday Saturday for the live stream will take you
up to kickoff of the first game for the Cup
for the NFL playoffs on Saturday, and so make definitely
(02:26):
make that note. I think that's a three point fifteen
kickoff right from a time perspective for four time that
game will be starting. Let me see that first game
kicksoff at four thirty Eastern, so it'll be a three
fifteen or three o'clock to four fifteen, so like last week,
same time as last week. So three o'clock eastern noon
(02:48):
Pacific time. Live stream coming up on our Betting Pros
YouTube channel on Saturday, not Sunday. The following week for
the Super Bowl or start for the championship games. Two
games on Sunday. A pregame show or the live stream
will be on Sunday for that off on the bye
week and then to the super Bowl. More on the
(03:08):
Super Bowl here in just one second, but let's start
talking about the first game on Sunday, and that is
the Patriots taking on the Houston Texans. The numbers three,
the total is forty one. Okay, let's talk about this
for a little bit. We have an eleven to one
future on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. We
(03:31):
have to bet the Texans, like we just have to
take Houston at plus three. Why because there's a decent
shot the Patriots lose this game. Okay, you have Drake May,
you have a young offensive line and the defense. For
the Texans, it took them three quarters, but finally they
got to the fourth quarter and they eviscerated the Steelers. Now,
(03:53):
Drake May, I like Drake May a lot more than
Aaron Rodgers, and I like the Patriots overall. I like
their offense better than the Steelers offense. But you can't
underestimate Will Anderson. You can't underestimate to what this offensive
line is going to face from a defensive front that
arguably is the best in football. Now, the secondary can
be had at times, but I don't think the Patriots
(04:16):
will score more than about seventeen to twenty points in
this game. It's hard to see the Patriots offense after
what they did last week, even with them being at home.
They had a rough start. Drake May had a rough
start to his playoff career. Now, the defense was good enough,
and the Chargers defense with their pass rush is very good.
So it's not like the Patriots are playing a cream
puff defense, but it wasn't again, I bet the Patriots
(04:38):
because I didn't like the Chargers defense all that much.
And the Patriots only scored sixteen points in that game,
but they won sixteen to three. So there's a couple
different ways. We're going to play this. Knowing that we
have that plus, that we have the plus eleven to
one or or eleven hundred bet on the Patriots to
win the Super Bowl, We're going to start to work
off of that. Okay, so we have eleven units to
(04:58):
play with. We're going to bet one or one point
one here on the Texans at plus three. There are
some decent reasons why to take the Patriots, just because
it's tough for the Patriots, I think to beat a
really good defense. The numbers are pretty good though, if
you want to talk about how the Pats are going
to see with the Texans, the Texans are zero to
(05:20):
six straight up in their franchise in this round. CJ.
Stroud is oh to two. He's been blown out both
games he's played in the divisional round. Mike Vrabel has
coached three home playoff games, one with the Patriots and
two with the Titans. His defense has given up a
grand total of forty five points. Okay, forty five points.
(05:44):
It's pretty good. So that's been all about their defense.
The Patriots allowed three points last week, which is pretty impressive.
The Patriots are a team at home in January. In
the postseason, they've been very difficult. Drake May as a
three point favorite or more this season is eleven to
zero straight up and nine and two against the spread.
(06:06):
As a favorite overall, Drake May is eleven. The Patriots
are eleven and one and nine in three. In those games,
they are fifteen and three straight up and thirteen and
five against the spread. And they're entering the season where
they were tremendous this season and their win total has
jumped from four wins all the way up here to fifteen.
(06:28):
Drake May, does he keep rolling like this? Maybe? Drake
May became the twenty six quarterback to win their first
playoff starts since two thousand and two. Of the previous
twenty three qbs who started the next playoff game after that,
they went ten and thirteen against the spread and seven
and sixteen ats. So when the next playoff game was
(06:51):
at home, they're two and four straight up and two
and four against the spread. Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purty,
both with the forty nine ers, were the teams to win.
The other four quarterbacks lost. So Drake May played the
Texans last year and they got destroyed forty one to
twenty one in that game. So I think we have
to go ahead and jump in on this. When it
(07:14):
comes to thee the Texans plus three as a hedge
off of the Patriot future, so I think we have
to do that. And the Texans have won ten games
in a row. When a team is on a ten
plus game straight up winning streak entering a playoff game
and they're the dog in that situation, they're zero to
four straight up since two thousand, So another thing, it's
(07:37):
good for the Patriots. But I mean Tabiko Ryans in company,
they've been very good in the first half. Since twenty
twenty three, the Tabiko Ryan led Texans are thirty seven
and nineteen against the spread in the first half, So
expect a pretty fast start for the Texans here on this.
But I mean, I don't know, it's dangerous. Favorites in
(08:00):
the divisional round who have covered seventy or more percent
of their games are just nine to fifteen ats since
two thousand and three. It gets even worse when you
go back to a team that covered in their previous
playoff game and then in the divisional round or later
they're just three to eight against the spread. So there's
(08:21):
just some numbers there that don't factor in well when
they talk about the Texans defense. But equally, I think
it comes down to and under under forty one. I
think it's the best bet in this game. I feel
most confident about the under with the Texans and the
Patriots because I don't think the Patriots are going to score.
But CJ. Stroud fumbled four times and a half. That's
(08:42):
a record in the NFL playoff game. He fumbled five
times overall through a pick in the red zone. And
the Texans ran the ball highly effectively against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
They will not run the ball on the Patriots. Mitt
Williams was unbelievable. Roberts Perlane the Patriots were a top
ten defense when they're healthy. Christian Gonzales practiced this week.
Nico Collins is out for this game. He's not going
(09:05):
to play for the Texans, as Adam Schefter reported yesterday,
So no Nico Collins a suspect CJ. Stroud an zero
to six straight up team for the Texans in this round.
They're not scoring much. Now they'll score more than three points,
but they're not scoring much. Equally, the Patriots aren't scoring
much either. It could be a seventeen fourteen, seventeen, thirteen,
(09:27):
thirteen ten type football game. The weather's not going to
be a problem. But I'm playing the under in this game.
I think that's the best play. We're going to hedge
with the Texans at plus three. Take the Patriots under
forty one here for two bets. In the first game
on Sunday, Game number two Stafford versus Williams Bears versus
(09:49):
the Rams. I have a really hard time with LA.
On paper, the Rams are the better team period. The
Bears got off to such a slow start against the
Packers three points in the first half, they were down eighteen,
they rallied, they won the game. I don't believe they
(10:10):
can do that again against the Rams. They better start fast,
they better get their offense going against the Rams. But
here's the problem. I just can't get past what happened
last year to Matthew Stafford in Philadelphia, where the weather
was a huge problem. This has the potential to be
a historically cold game for the La Rams at Soldier
(10:33):
Field in Chicago. Dome team in la where today in
LA it was eighty degrees, it might be eight or
five or zero degrees with a negative wind chill coming
up on Sunday night. This is not good for the
(10:54):
La Rams. Chicago is built for this. Chicago practices in it,
they live in it, they know it. I don't know
why the Bears would ever build a dome. It's the
dumbest thing ever. Giving up home field advantage in January
is such a big damn deal to me. Why in
the world would you give that up. This Bears team
(11:14):
is the Cardiac Bears. They're a second half team. For
whatever reason, they just play better in the second half.
The Bears have covered eight straight second half games ats
Wyse in the division going into the divisional round. Whatever
happens with the second half, bet the Bears in the
second half. Okay, they just it's what they do. I mean.
(11:37):
Stafford in his career has started five games under thirty
three weather. He's two and three straight up in two
and three against the spread. His coldest game came in
December of last year against the Jets at twenty three degrees.
They scored nineteen points in that game. Again, this is
being projected as the coldest game in the career of
(12:01):
Matthew Stafford, and I am I'm just afraid of it,
to be quite honest, I don't. I mean to me,
I just don't know this RAMS team can go and
play in the weather enough that I feel comfortable betting it.
I just don't play comfortable, you know. So. I mean
our guy Kevin Roth, who is a meteorologist on Twitter
(12:23):
who does a great job at Kevin Roth Wx. He's
saying that the temperatures are going to feel like single digits.
While the cold doesn't impact scoring as much as high
wind does, it is correlated to lower scoring games because
there is wind sustain winds of ten to fifteen miles
per hour with gusts around twenty to twenty five miles
(12:44):
per hour as the game goes on. The projection is
this is going to be a later game, with game
winds picking up. The later the game goes, the more
wind there's going to be. There's a chance for snow,
maybe not a lot of snow, but a flurry or
so it's going to be cold. It's gonna be windy,
it's gonna be nasty. It's gonna suck for Matthew Stafford,
(13:06):
who has never played in temperatures this cold before. If
the Rams win, I don't think the Rams cover. They
didn't cover last week. They're on the road again, and
I just don't think home dogs of four points or
more in the playoffs over the last fifty years are
(13:27):
nine and oh, straight up, okay, this number is four
four points or more fifty years of playoff history in
the NFL. Nine and oh, that is a pretty good
bet to make in my opinion, when you come down
to this, I just think the Rams defense is good.
(13:51):
But I think this is going to be a cold
weather game and maybe the Bears win, Maybe the Rams win,
but the Rams win, I think they want end up
getting themselves into a situation where they're winning by three
and the four points comes in Bears cover, Rams win.
I don't have a future on either team, on the
(14:11):
Rams or the Bears. I don't mind a bet on
the under on this. You could say that the Bears
played their super Bowl last week against the Packers, They're
gonna have a big emotional letdown this week up against
the Rams. Maybe that's possible, but I don't know. I
just think the weather to me, really is going to
be problematic for the Rams. I'll take the points. Give
(14:33):
me the Bears plus four for one point one units.
I think you're gonna see a lot of public support
for the Rams, a lot of public money coming in
on LA. I'll take the plus four. So plays for today,
we are going Houston plus three the Patriots and the
Texans under forty one for the first game. On Sunday,
second game, Bears plus four. Don't hate to play on
(14:55):
the under. I'll probably do a same game teaser on
that and tease the Bears up to ten and take
the total up and go under. But that will be
later on, probably for Sunday's podcasts or the live stream
on Saturday. We'll save it for that, But for today,
two NBA player props will be found on the Betting
Pros app Go and search at Sports Talk Matt. I
will put those props up at some point during the
(15:16):
day before the games tip off at Sports doc Mac.
Download the Betting Pros app to go ahead and do
that before we wind up going. Let me remind you
of a couple of things. First and foremost, this podcast
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(15:37):
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Speaker 1 (16:37):
And speaking of the super Bowl, I told you guys this, uh,
I don't know a couple days ago. I'm excited. I'm
headed back to Radio Row for the Super Bowl. My
other show, The Bostonian Versus the Book. We will be
live on Thursday and Friday from one pm to three
pm Eastern on the YouTube channel at Boston Versus the
(16:59):
Book from Radio Row. I'll head up there on Wednesday.
I will be doing the Daily Juice from San Francisco
on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of the week of the
Super Bowl coming up in February. I cannot wait to
get up there and have that. I've got guest hosts
with me on Thursday and Friday. We are loading up
and lining up all big guests on Radio Row coming
(17:22):
up for us on Thursday. So if you have not
subscribed to the betting to the BVB YouTube channel yet,
please go and do that. Go and search at Boston
Versus the Book BVB on X and on YouTube, but
on YouTube, hit subscribe on the YouTube channel and then
hit the little bell and you'll be notified when I
go live from Radio Row Thursday and Friday. Give me
(17:45):
super fun. I'll do something on Wednesday, but I don't
know yet what I'm doing on Wednesday from Radio Row.
But I will be live from one to three Eastern
on Thursday and on Friday from San Francisco. It's the
fourth time I've broadcasted from the Super Bowl for Radio Row.
Looking forward to coming up in for the week of
the Super Bowl. For that for the Bostonian Versus the Book,
(18:05):
mineus Matt Parol, You guys and follow me across all
my socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you
guys get your podcasts. It is the Daily Juice