January 8, 2026 • 18 mins
It was a flat night on Wednesday for host Matt Perrault but Matt continues to get ready for a monster football weekend. Matt has 3 bets for you on 3 Wild Card NFL games for the Thursday episode of the Daily Juice presented by Hard Rock Bet.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Hey, guys, how are you welcome into a Thursday morning
episode of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Peralti.
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at Sports Talk Matt, and we're back no rant tonight today,
right to the picks for us here for today. I
appreciate you guys letting me do what I did last night,
but we move on. So here's the thing. If you
(00:39):
were looking for the college football National semi final game,
Oh Miss Miami. If you're looking for that, you're gonna
have to go back a couple days. Okay, back a
couple of days, watch a couple of previous episodes. I
believe we did that on Monday. You will get the
pick for tonight. There's actually two bets for tonight for
(01:00):
Ole Miss in Miami. There's also a play for tomorrow
night that we gave out already. I have given out
the games on Saturday, my bets for the Saturday NFL games,
and today we will do the three games. Really there's four,
but I can't make a bet yet for the Eagles
and the forty nine ers until we find out about
(01:21):
Trent Williams. That is a massive injury situation. If he plays,
it's gonna impact my bet. So I gotta wait. So
I cannot give you out. I cannot give you my
bet for the Eagles and the forty nine ers. However,
I can give you my bets for the two other
games on Sunday and the game on Monday here for Thursday.
(01:42):
So we've got the bets already for Thursday, for Friday,
already given out. I'm gonna get give you Saturday, yesterday.
I'm gonna give you Sunday and Monday. Now when we
get to the days, we get to Saturday, there is
going to be a live stream on Saturday. That's going
to be a three three o'clock Eastern time live stream,
and we're gonna take you right up to kickoff at
(02:05):
four fifteen. All right, So we're gonna have an hour
and fifteen minute podcast or live stream with myself and
Pat fitz Morris coming up on Saturday, not Sunday, Saturday
for our live stream. We will do all six games
and give you player props in every game for that
(02:25):
live stream. Okay, so we've got Friday, the podcast tomorrow,
which will be for Thursday night into Friday. I'll have
some extra probably college basketball, NBA basketball, something to give
you coming up for that. But for the big boys,
the big ticket, we are looking ahead, if you will,
we're betting ahead to get bet the best numbers if possible.
(02:46):
For last night, we went one in one. The hard
rock bet of the day did end up cashing. Oop, sorry,
you need to put that up onto the screen. The
hard rock bet of the day did end up cashing
for us. We did end up going one in one.
The hard rock bet now is eleven and six. But
Creighton won the game outright, that should have been a
(03:09):
Creighton Blue Jays bet. Unfortunately we didn't get that right.
But we got it with Bama and Vandy. That game
flew over. The number went crazy. I had won seventy
seven and a half. It closed at one eighty two
and every number cashed it went over all of it.
So no matter what number you laid last night with
Bama and Vandy, you got there eleven and six. Now
(03:30):
for the hard wreck bet of the day, so let's
get into it. For these big games coming up on Sunday.
There are two on Sunday that I want to talk about,
like I mentioned, and one coming up on Monday.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
But before I do that.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Let me tell you about our friends at hard Rock Bet.
They are the title sponsor of this podcast. They are
also the sports book for this state of Florida. Jaguars, Bucks, Heat, Magic,
Panthers Playoff Case Off this weekend. NFL football all over
the place, but same game parlays are available every day
for any sport you want to get into hoops action
(04:07):
all season long with the NBA and college football, and
they've got parlay publicly got a playoff parlays you can
add NBA bets or player props into.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
If you would like to do so.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Don't forget about the live in game betting available at
hard Rock Bet. The five dollars bet to win one
hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets if your bet
wins with your first initial deposit is always still available
and if you're in Florida, hard Rock Bet is the
only legal sportsbook, but it's also live in Arizona, Ohio,
New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado, and Michigan. Hard
(04:39):
Rock Bet with new promos every day. To download the
hard rock Bet app and make your first deposit today,
payble and bonus.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Bets not a cash offer offered by the Seminal Tribe
of Florida and Florida offered by the Seminal Hard Rock
Digital LLC in other states, must be twenty one plus
in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and editions
of apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida call one eight
three to three play wise. In Indiana, if you are
someone you know as a gambling problem, laants help called
(05:06):
one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called
one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
All right, let's get into this. Let's start with the
first game of the day, Man Alive. These are gonna
be fun games. Josh Allen, the numbers are not pretty.
Josh Allen is five and eight against the number in
his playoff career. He is a guy that last year
(05:35):
went two and one ats.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
But on the road.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Josh Allen is oh to four straight up and oh
to four against the spread. The Bills have lost eight
consecutive road playoff games. Their last win in the postseason
on the road came back in nineteen ninety three. If
they lose this game, it would be the second longest
road playoff losing streak in NFL history, only behind the Lions,
(05:59):
who have lost twelve consecutive road games. That streak is
still intact. Look, the Jaguars are a team that at
thirteen and four to their team total over, I would
recommend the Jaguars scoring consistently against the Bills. Here's the
problem for the Buffalo Bills. The Jacksonville Jaguars are the
(06:22):
only team in the NFL to not allow a rusher
to go over seventy five yards on the ground against them.
James Cook must be able to run the football in
order for this Buffalo Bills offense to be effective. They
can't run, they can't win, and you cannot run on Jacksonville.
So if the Jaguars are going to lose this game,
(06:44):
they're going to have to turn the ball over a ton.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
This is going to be on Trevor Lawrence. This is
going to be on the running game.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
This is gonna be on the wide receivers, interceptions in fumbles.
That's how Buffalo wins this game. Unfortunately, I just don't
see the Jaguars coughing the football up Ton. This is
just a play on the Jags defense in what they
have done so far. Since two thousand, only two teams
(07:12):
have entered the playoffs on a six plus game scoring
streak where they've scored twenty three or more points in
every game and allowing twenty or less. The twenty nineteen
Ravens the twenty two thousand and seven Chargers with the
other two team, Chargers won two playoff games, and they
covered in all three of the games they played. The
(07:33):
nineteen seventy three Rams lost in their first playoff game
straight up and against the spread, but that was in
nineteen seventy three. This is a very good Jacksonville Jaguars team.
This team has faced some very good running backs here. Yes,
James Cook was the twenty twenty five rushing champion, but
(07:54):
Jonathan Taylor didn't go for seventy five yards. Christian McCaffrey
didn't go for seventy five yards. Ashton genty didn't go
for seventy five yards up against Chase Brown didn't go
up didn't go for seventy five yards against this defense. Look,
Josh Allen is an unbelievable player, but the Buffalo Bills, Look,
(08:15):
Brad Allen the referee you want to bet referees. Brad
Allen's the exact referee you would want working this game.
If the Buffalo Bills Josh Allen is three and oh
straight up in the playoffs with Brett Allen as the
as a referee, with Trevor Lawrence playing quarterback in Brad Allen,
Brad bred Allen refereeing the Unders five and one road
(08:40):
teams are ten and four against the spread, the best
mark in the NFL with Brad Allen as the referee.
I don't care. This is a huge opportunity for the Jaguars.
This is a huge chance for this defense to flex.
They're at home. I know it's not the greatest home
field advantage, but to me, we're going with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
(09:02):
I'm going straight into the money line. I'm taking money
line and even money. I like the Jaguars to win
this game outright, to send the Bills home home dog
Jacksonville money line even money for one unit bet number two.
As I said, we got to skip over the forty
nine ers and the Eagles. That bet will be on
(09:24):
a different podcast, probably Saturday's podcast. We'll have that game,
maybe even Sunday's podcast, depending upon the injury news for
the forty nine Ers. But let's talk about the Chargers
on the road against the Patriots. Justin Harb Justin Herbert,
excuse me, third career playoff start. In his previous two
playoff starts on the road, he has lost them both
(09:45):
straight up and against the spread. The Chargers defense is bad,
Patriot offense is great. The Chargers offensive line is awful
in the Patriots defense is healthy. They're getting Robert splane back,
and they're getting Milton Williams, Roberts Perlaying, their best linebacker,
their thumper, their run stopper, and Milton Williams was their
(10:06):
biggest high ticket or high priced free agent that the
Patriots brought in. When they had Spilane and Milton Williams
both on the field at the same time, the Patriots
rush defense was a top ten rush defense in the NFL.
If the Chargers can't run the football, they're not going
to be able to keep up because Drake May and
company will be scoring on this Chargers defense. Drake May
(10:30):
is ten and zero straight up in eight and two
against the spread when a favored by three points or
more this season in the NFL, they've won those ten
games by an average of seventeen points per game. Now,
a lot of that's been inflated late with wins against
the Jets and the Dolphins and whatnot. But the Patriots
(10:51):
at fourteen and three twelve and five against the spread.
It's Drake May's first career playoff game. I understand that
I do, But first career playoffs start against a quarterback
with playoff experience. The quarterback who has made their first
playoff start has not fared well twenty and forty straight
(11:12):
up since two thousand and two when that quarterback is
favored by three points or more making his first career
start ten and nine straight up, eight and eleven against
the spread. But with this many offensive line combinations for
the Chargers and no Joe Alt playing, which has been
just a massive deal here for this team, I'm taking
(11:35):
the Patriots and laying the three and a half points.
I saw a very interesting study that came out on
West Coast teams playing night games where it's a five
o'clock start. In your ideal body clock is between twelve
and six to play anything athletic, So this game being
at five o'clock Pacific eight pm Eastern time benefits the Chargers.
(11:56):
If you look at the fact that Ron Tolbert, the
Patriots have lost fourth trade games against the spread with
Ron Tolbert as the referee, So that's not great coming
into this. But you look at where this team is
from a Patriots standpoint, there's a lot of baggage that
Mike Vrabel is carrying around from when he was with
(12:18):
Tennessee and had aj Brown, he had Derrick Henry, Ryan
Tannehill and they lost as the one seed. A lot
of people say this is going to happen again, the
Patriots are gonna lose this game. I actually don't think so.
I think the Patriots are going to put up points
here and I really don't think that this is And
(12:38):
maybe the hook gets me. Okay, maybe it's maybe the
hook and the Pats win by three. And maybe the
pass rush for the Chargers is going to get after
Drake May and make him uncomfortable. But Will Campbell's back
the starting left tackle for the Patriots. It's a night
game in Foxborough. The crowd's going to be absolutely lit
up drunk. It's going to be a hard place to play.
(13:00):
Mother Nature is not going to give the Patriots any help. Unfortunately.
Chargers will see ball meet temperatures for January in Foxborough
in the forties, but it's still at night and it's
still not going to be warm and sunny at Foxborough
for that game. Justin Herbert just I cannot trust him
against quality teams. I can't trust him in the postseason.
(13:23):
He's not healthy. His offensive line's a mess. The Patriot
defense is going to be healthy. I'm gonna go ahead
and take it zero to three. Justin Herbert, in his career,
with Ron Tolbert as the referee, take the Patriots lay
the three and a half points with New England even money,
shop around, find the best price for that. If it
(13:43):
goes to three, I'll be in love with it. But
I don't think that's going to go to three. In fact,
I think this number is going to close at four.
I think Patriot money will come in late Pats mins
three and a half. And finally we go to Monday
Night and the numbers for Mike Tomlin are just absolutely stupid.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won twenty three consecutive games at
(14:07):
home on Monday Night Football since nineteen ninety two. Dating
back to nineteen ninety two, the Steelers are twenty three
and one straight up at home on Monday Night, losing
to the Commanders in twenty twenty. But when Pittsburgh has
their fans in the stands and the atmosphere is real
(14:29):
because that game was during COVID, they are twenty three
to zero. Aaron Rodgers has played at home on Monday
Night Football in his career. He's twelve and two straight up.
The Steelers haven't won or covered a playoff game since
twenty sixteen twenty seventeen. That's a six games straight up
(14:49):
in ATS playoff losing streak, the longest in their franchise.
Mike Tomlin, this is the number one thing that is
used against him that he has not won a playoff
game twenty and since since twenty sixteen twenty seventeen. But
under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is twenty three and five straight
up sixteen and twelve on Monday Night Football, including twelve
(15:12):
and one straight up and seven and six against the spread.
When the Monday Night Football game is at home in Pittsburgh,
that one loss. We're not counting. They're twelve and zero
under Mike Tomlin at home on Monday Night football. They're
seven and six against the spread. The Houston Texans have
(15:33):
been awful on the road. They are oh and six
straight up on the road in the postseason. They are
one four and one against the spread in their franchise history.
C J. Stroud is oh and two against the spread
and oh and two straight up on the road as
the quarterback of the Texans in the post season. This
is renegade. This is the terrible towel, this is Monday Night.
(15:58):
This is drunk, this is Aaron Rodgers, this is DK Metcalf.
Texans defense is tremendous.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
But CJ. Stroud just I can't trust him. I just can't.
Speaker 1 (16:11):
The under is a tremendous bet, and I very well
might double down and come in.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
With the under here for this game.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
But the first play, the first bet, I don't care
who the referee is. This is about Monday Night. This
is about Mike Tomlin. You can get cute if you want,
and you can take the three points, yes I will,
but I'm taking moneyline as well. Pittsburgh to win the
game outright the three points is sort of just a conditional,
(16:39):
maybe I'm wrong situation because it is an aging Pittsburgh team,
But I'll take the plus three for Pittsburgh officially, but
I will be betting money line as well for the
Pittsburgh Steelers will bit under as well. Those maybe official
plays later on, but our first plays here for Sunday's
game in the NFL Jaguars money line Patriots laying three
(17:01):
and a half Pittsburgh on Monday Night catching three points.
We'll have more bets on that coming up as well.
So those are the five bets for the six games
the Eagles and the forty nine Ers that will come
later tomorrow Saturday, depending on when the Trent Williams news
comes out as to whether or not he is playing.
He did not practice on Wednesday, so that is not
(17:22):
a good situation at all. If you want to hear
more about tonight's game between Ole Miss and Miami and
take a look at the numbers from a betting perspective
and where the money is going, you can join me
coming up later on today on The Bostonian Versus the Book.
That is my long form show that airs on YouTube
and on x on the handle at Boston Versus the book.
(17:46):
The podcast comes out immediately following the show, which will
air live at one pm Eastern time. You can also
go and watch the show on demand on YouTube as well,
and the show is replayed on sports Grid Television and
at one am Eastern time internationally. Not just nationally, but
internationally on sports Grid TV at one am Eastern ten
(18:07):
pm Pacific time. Ole Miss in Miami is the game
on Thursday Tomorrow. On Friday, Indiana in Oregon, get after it.
But we'll talk a lot of college football. We'll talk
a lot of NFL football. Coming up at one pm
Eastern time on BVB at Boston Versus the book. The
handle to go follow it my min's Matt Parolt. You
guys can follow me across all my socials at sports
(18:28):
Doc Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
It is the Daily Juice
Hey, guys, how are you welcome into a Thursday morning
episode of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Peralti.
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at Sports Talk Matt, and we're back no rant tonight today,
right to the picks for us here for today. I
appreciate you guys letting me do what I did last night,
but we move on. So here's the thing. If you
(00:39):
were looking for the college football National semi final game,
Oh Miss Miami. If you're looking for that, you're gonna
have to go back a couple days. Okay, back a
couple of days, watch a couple of previous episodes. I
believe we did that on Monday. You will get the
pick for tonight. There's actually two bets for tonight for
(01:00):
Ole Miss in Miami. There's also a play for tomorrow
night that we gave out already. I have given out
the games on Saturday, my bets for the Saturday NFL games,
and today we will do the three games. Really there's four,
but I can't make a bet yet for the Eagles
and the forty nine ers until we find out about
(01:21):
Trent Williams. That is a massive injury situation. If he plays,
it's gonna impact my bet. So I gotta wait. So
I cannot give you out. I cannot give you my
bet for the Eagles and the forty nine ers. However,
I can give you my bets for the two other
games on Sunday and the game on Monday here for Thursday.
(01:42):
So we've got the bets already for Thursday, for Friday,
already given out. I'm gonna get give you Saturday, yesterday.
I'm gonna give you Sunday and Monday. Now when we
get to the days, we get to Saturday, there is
going to be a live stream on Saturday. That's going
to be a three three o'clock Eastern time live stream,
and we're gonna take you right up to kickoff at
(02:05):
four fifteen. All right, So we're gonna have an hour
and fifteen minute podcast or live stream with myself and
Pat fitz Morris coming up on Saturday, not Sunday, Saturday
for our live stream. We will do all six games
and give you player props in every game for that
(02:25):
live stream. Okay, so we've got Friday, the podcast tomorrow,
which will be for Thursday night into Friday. I'll have
some extra probably college basketball, NBA basketball, something to give
you coming up for that. But for the big boys,
the big ticket, we are looking ahead, if you will,
we're betting ahead to get bet the best numbers if possible.
(02:46):
For last night, we went one in one. The hard
rock bet of the day did end up cashing. Oop, sorry,
you need to put that up onto the screen. The
hard rock bet of the day did end up cashing
for us. We did end up going one in one.
The hard rock bet now is eleven and six. But
Creighton won the game outright, that should have been a
(03:09):
Creighton Blue Jays bet. Unfortunately we didn't get that right.
But we got it with Bama and Vandy. That game
flew over. The number went crazy. I had won seventy
seven and a half. It closed at one eighty two
and every number cashed it went over all of it.
So no matter what number you laid last night with
Bama and Vandy, you got there eleven and six. Now
(03:30):
for the hard wreck bet of the day, so let's
get into it. For these big games coming up on Sunday.
There are two on Sunday that I want to talk about,
like I mentioned, and one coming up on Monday.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
But before I do that.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Let me tell you about our friends at hard Rock Bet.
They are the title sponsor of this podcast. They are
also the sports book for this state of Florida. Jaguars, Bucks, Heat, Magic,
Panthers Playoff Case Off this weekend. NFL football all over
the place, but same game parlays are available every day
for any sport you want to get into hoops action
(04:07):
all season long with the NBA and college football, and
they've got parlay publicly got a playoff parlays you can
add NBA bets or player props into.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
If you would like to do so.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Don't forget about the live in game betting available at
hard Rock Bet. The five dollars bet to win one
hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets if your bet
wins with your first initial deposit is always still available
and if you're in Florida, hard Rock Bet is the
only legal sportsbook, but it's also live in Arizona, Ohio,
New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado, and Michigan. Hard
(04:39):
Rock Bet with new promos every day. To download the
hard rock Bet app and make your first deposit today,
payble and bonus.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Bets not a cash offer offered by the Seminal Tribe
of Florida and Florida offered by the Seminal Hard Rock
Digital LLC in other states, must be twenty one plus
in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and editions
of apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida call one eight
three to three play wise. In Indiana, if you are
someone you know as a gambling problem, laants help called
(05:06):
one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called
one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
All right, let's get into this. Let's start with the
first game of the day, Man Alive. These are gonna
be fun games. Josh Allen, the numbers are not pretty.
Josh Allen is five and eight against the number in
his playoff career. He is a guy that last year
(05:35):
went two and one ats.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
But on the road.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Josh Allen is oh to four straight up and oh
to four against the spread. The Bills have lost eight
consecutive road playoff games. Their last win in the postseason
on the road came back in nineteen ninety three. If
they lose this game, it would be the second longest
road playoff losing streak in NFL history, only behind the Lions,
(05:59):
who have lost twelve consecutive road games. That streak is
still intact. Look, the Jaguars are a team that at
thirteen and four to their team total over, I would
recommend the Jaguars scoring consistently against the Bills. Here's the
problem for the Buffalo Bills. The Jacksonville Jaguars are the
(06:22):
only team in the NFL to not allow a rusher
to go over seventy five yards on the ground against them.
James Cook must be able to run the football in
order for this Buffalo Bills offense to be effective. They
can't run, they can't win, and you cannot run on Jacksonville.
So if the Jaguars are going to lose this game,
(06:44):
they're going to have to turn the ball over a ton.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
This is going to be on Trevor Lawrence. This is
going to be on the running game.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
This is gonna be on the wide receivers, interceptions in fumbles.
That's how Buffalo wins this game. Unfortunately, I just don't
see the Jaguars coughing the football up Ton. This is
just a play on the Jags defense in what they
have done so far. Since two thousand, only two teams
(07:12):
have entered the playoffs on a six plus game scoring
streak where they've scored twenty three or more points in
every game and allowing twenty or less. The twenty nineteen
Ravens the twenty two thousand and seven Chargers with the
other two team, Chargers won two playoff games, and they
covered in all three of the games they played. The
(07:33):
nineteen seventy three Rams lost in their first playoff game
straight up and against the spread, but that was in
nineteen seventy three. This is a very good Jacksonville Jaguars team.
This team has faced some very good running backs here. Yes,
James Cook was the twenty twenty five rushing champion, but
(07:54):
Jonathan Taylor didn't go for seventy five yards. Christian McCaffrey
didn't go for seventy five yards. Ashton genty didn't go
for seventy five yards up against Chase Brown didn't go
up didn't go for seventy five yards against this defense. Look,
Josh Allen is an unbelievable player, but the Buffalo Bills, Look,
(08:15):
Brad Allen the referee you want to bet referees. Brad
Allen's the exact referee you would want working this game.
If the Buffalo Bills Josh Allen is three and oh
straight up in the playoffs with Brett Allen as the
as a referee, with Trevor Lawrence playing quarterback in Brad Allen,
Brad bred Allen refereeing the Unders five and one road
(08:40):
teams are ten and four against the spread, the best
mark in the NFL with Brad Allen as the referee.
I don't care. This is a huge opportunity for the Jaguars.
This is a huge chance for this defense to flex.
They're at home. I know it's not the greatest home
field advantage, but to me, we're going with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
(09:02):
I'm going straight into the money line. I'm taking money
line and even money. I like the Jaguars to win
this game outright, to send the Bills home home dog
Jacksonville money line even money for one unit bet number two.
As I said, we got to skip over the forty
nine ers and the Eagles. That bet will be on
(09:24):
a different podcast, probably Saturday's podcast. We'll have that game,
maybe even Sunday's podcast, depending upon the injury news for
the forty nine Ers. But let's talk about the Chargers
on the road against the Patriots. Justin Harb Justin Herbert,
excuse me, third career playoff start. In his previous two
playoff starts on the road, he has lost them both
(09:45):
straight up and against the spread. The Chargers defense is bad,
Patriot offense is great. The Chargers offensive line is awful
in the Patriots defense is healthy. They're getting Robert splane back,
and they're getting Milton Williams, Roberts Perlaying, their best linebacker,
their thumper, their run stopper, and Milton Williams was their
(10:06):
biggest high ticket or high priced free agent that the
Patriots brought in. When they had Spilane and Milton Williams
both on the field at the same time, the Patriots
rush defense was a top ten rush defense in the NFL.
If the Chargers can't run the football, they're not going
to be able to keep up because Drake May and
company will be scoring on this Chargers defense. Drake May
(10:30):
is ten and zero straight up in eight and two
against the spread when a favored by three points or
more this season in the NFL, they've won those ten
games by an average of seventeen points per game. Now,
a lot of that's been inflated late with wins against
the Jets and the Dolphins and whatnot. But the Patriots
(10:51):
at fourteen and three twelve and five against the spread.
It's Drake May's first career playoff game. I understand that
I do, But first career playoffs start against a quarterback
with playoff experience. The quarterback who has made their first
playoff start has not fared well twenty and forty straight
(11:12):
up since two thousand and two when that quarterback is
favored by three points or more making his first career
start ten and nine straight up, eight and eleven against
the spread. But with this many offensive line combinations for
the Chargers and no Joe Alt playing, which has been
just a massive deal here for this team, I'm taking
(11:35):
the Patriots and laying the three and a half points.
I saw a very interesting study that came out on
West Coast teams playing night games where it's a five
o'clock start. In your ideal body clock is between twelve
and six to play anything athletic, So this game being
at five o'clock Pacific eight pm Eastern time benefits the Chargers.
(11:56):
If you look at the fact that Ron Tolbert, the
Patriots have lost fourth trade games against the spread with
Ron Tolbert as the referee, So that's not great coming
into this. But you look at where this team is
from a Patriots standpoint, there's a lot of baggage that
Mike Vrabel is carrying around from when he was with
(12:18):
Tennessee and had aj Brown, he had Derrick Henry, Ryan
Tannehill and they lost as the one seed. A lot
of people say this is going to happen again, the
Patriots are gonna lose this game. I actually don't think so.
I think the Patriots are going to put up points
here and I really don't think that this is And
(12:38):
maybe the hook gets me. Okay, maybe it's maybe the
hook and the Pats win by three. And maybe the
pass rush for the Chargers is going to get after
Drake May and make him uncomfortable. But Will Campbell's back
the starting left tackle for the Patriots. It's a night
game in Foxborough. The crowd's going to be absolutely lit
up drunk. It's going to be a hard place to play.
(13:00):
Mother Nature is not going to give the Patriots any help. Unfortunately.
Chargers will see ball meet temperatures for January in Foxborough
in the forties, but it's still at night and it's
still not going to be warm and sunny at Foxborough
for that game. Justin Herbert just I cannot trust him
against quality teams. I can't trust him in the postseason.
(13:23):
He's not healthy. His offensive line's a mess. The Patriot
defense is going to be healthy. I'm gonna go ahead
and take it zero to three. Justin Herbert, in his career,
with Ron Tolbert as the referee, take the Patriots lay
the three and a half points with New England even money,
shop around, find the best price for that. If it
(13:43):
goes to three, I'll be in love with it. But
I don't think that's going to go to three. In fact,
I think this number is going to close at four.
I think Patriot money will come in late Pats mins
three and a half. And finally we go to Monday
Night and the numbers for Mike Tomlin are just absolutely stupid.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won twenty three consecutive games at
(14:07):
home on Monday Night Football since nineteen ninety two. Dating
back to nineteen ninety two, the Steelers are twenty three
and one straight up at home on Monday Night, losing
to the Commanders in twenty twenty. But when Pittsburgh has
their fans in the stands and the atmosphere is real
(14:29):
because that game was during COVID, they are twenty three
to zero. Aaron Rodgers has played at home on Monday
Night Football in his career. He's twelve and two straight up.
The Steelers haven't won or covered a playoff game since
twenty sixteen twenty seventeen. That's a six games straight up
(14:49):
in ATS playoff losing streak, the longest in their franchise.
Mike Tomlin, this is the number one thing that is
used against him that he has not won a playoff
game twenty and since since twenty sixteen twenty seventeen. But
under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is twenty three and five straight
up sixteen and twelve on Monday Night Football, including twelve
(15:12):
and one straight up and seven and six against the spread.
When the Monday Night Football game is at home in Pittsburgh,
that one loss. We're not counting. They're twelve and zero
under Mike Tomlin at home on Monday Night football. They're
seven and six against the spread. The Houston Texans have
(15:33):
been awful on the road. They are oh and six
straight up on the road in the postseason. They are
one four and one against the spread in their franchise history.
C J. Stroud is oh and two against the spread
and oh and two straight up on the road as
the quarterback of the Texans in the post season. This
is renegade. This is the terrible towel, this is Monday Night.
(15:58):
This is drunk, this is Aaron Rodgers, this is DK Metcalf.
Texans defense is tremendous.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
But CJ. Stroud just I can't trust him. I just can't.
Speaker 1 (16:11):
The under is a tremendous bet, and I very well
might double down and come in.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
With the under here for this game.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
But the first play, the first bet, I don't care
who the referee is. This is about Monday Night. This
is about Mike Tomlin. You can get cute if you want,
and you can take the three points, yes I will,
but I'm taking moneyline as well. Pittsburgh to win the
game outright the three points is sort of just a conditional,
(16:39):
maybe I'm wrong situation because it is an aging Pittsburgh team,
But I'll take the plus three for Pittsburgh officially, but
I will be betting money line as well for the
Pittsburgh Steelers will bit under as well. Those maybe official
plays later on, but our first plays here for Sunday's
game in the NFL Jaguars money line Patriots laying three
(17:01):
and a half Pittsburgh on Monday Night catching three points.
We'll have more bets on that coming up as well.
So those are the five bets for the six games
the Eagles and the forty nine Ers that will come
later tomorrow Saturday, depending on when the Trent Williams news
comes out as to whether or not he is playing.
He did not practice on Wednesday, so that is not
(17:22):
a good situation at all. If you want to hear
more about tonight's game between Ole Miss and Miami and
take a look at the numbers from a betting perspective
and where the money is going, you can join me
coming up later on today on The Bostonian Versus the Book.
That is my long form show that airs on YouTube
and on x on the handle at Boston Versus the book.
(17:46):
The podcast comes out immediately following the show, which will
air live at one pm Eastern time. You can also
go and watch the show on demand on YouTube as well,
and the show is replayed on sports Grid Television and
at one am Eastern time internationally. Not just nationally, but
internationally on sports Grid TV at one am Eastern ten
(18:07):
pm Pacific time. Ole Miss in Miami is the game
on Thursday Tomorrow. On Friday, Indiana in Oregon, get after it.
But we'll talk a lot of college football. We'll talk
a lot of NFL football. Coming up at one pm
Eastern time on BVB at Boston Versus the book. The
handle to go follow it my min's Matt Parolt. You
guys can follow me across all my socials at sports
(18:28):
Doc Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
It is the Daily Juice
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