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January 21, 2026 17 mins

A 1-3 night cause host Matt Perrault to get out his house and clear his mind. Matt is back with 3 bets for Sunday but then the Hard Rock Bet of the Day on the latest episode of the Daily Juice. 

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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Hey, guys, how are you welcome into a Wednesday morning
episode of the Daily Juice podcast from the Matt Pereltz.
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at Sports Talk Matt, and well, let me just explain
how last night went. So I was not going to
go out last night. I don't go out all that often.
But a friend of mine is in town and he
is he was hosting an event at a whiskey and

(00:39):
cigar place and he runs a whiskey and a cigar
company called Mala Labe. If you guys know BBB, you
know the company. So he's in town and he sends
me note and says, hey, I'm doing this event if
you want to come on out. I'm like, eh to
Tuesday night, probably going to stay in. And then I
watched the Spurs and the Rocket ending and how that

(01:02):
game went, and I immediately got in the shower, got
dressed and went to the event because I needed a drink.
And I had to get the heck away from myself
and a heck away from my house because I could
not sit there after what happened. I was so angry
at that game. It's a one in three night somehow

(01:22):
we get the prop bet that gets under forty one
and a half. It lands forty one. So we got
that right. It was the only bet we got right.
Central Florida got smoked by Iowa State. That's on me.
That game and the Arkansas game both factored into a
system play that I'm gonna bring back for today. I've

(01:43):
been I bet it a lot. I watched it for tonight.
The Iowa State game factored into it. I went against it.
It lost. The Arkansas game, I went with it. It won.
So we're gonna jump in and we're gonna go with
it here for today. What is that system? The hockey
bet four to three was the final spur, like I mentioned,
was so frustrating, so one in three day down two

(02:03):
point three to five units on the day. The system
play is, find a team that lost on the road
is then coming back home to play a conference opponent
with a line that is somewhere between two and a
half and four and a half. Like you want like
you don't want a full five points. You want to

(02:24):
be under five this game. It's under three. It's even better.
So it's a conference game with a small line coming
off of a loss. You come back home to play.
The coach is mad, the team's mad. You get some
home cooking and things should go well for you. So
there is one game that I'm looking at here for
tonight that does factor into that. Arkansas game factor into that.

(02:45):
I always say game factor into that. So it's a
road game, road loss, conference loss, coming home to play
at home in a conference game with a short line.
That's the system play that I made a lot of
bets with last year. I'm going to come back with
that here today for the hard rock bet of the day,
so stay tuned for that. There will be two NBA

(03:07):
player props on the Betting pros app today from me,
so stay tuned for that. I'll tell you which two
bets I'm making at some point later on today Betting
pros app search at Sports Talk Matt. It's the only
bet I got right yesterday, so hopefully we'll keep the
positive streak going there with NBA player props. But that's

(03:28):
going to happen. Two of them will be on the
app later on today, So the hard rock bet still
to come. College basketball. Two NBA player props happening tonight
on there for fortunight happening on the app. So what
are we doing. I'm going to give you what is
the beginning of what the card will look like on Sunday.

(03:51):
Why well, why not? I think it's good to jump
in with us. Now, let's get this out of the way.
Let's go ahead and jump on this before we see
any big line movement. I do think that the Patriots
game against the Broncos is going to close around three
and a half. I think we're going to see a
point or a point and a half of movement here

(04:11):
once on Thursday the limits open up. I do think
the books. I think the five and five and a
half is a complete and total headfake. I don't think
that that's a real number. I don't think the pros
are betting the Patriots. I think they're going to come
and unload on the Broncos when the limits get lifted,
and I think we're going to see a closing number
of around three and a half, maybe even three, depending

(04:33):
on how much money comes in. So we have the
eleven to one ticket on the Patriots to win the
Super Bowl. We've already bet one unit or one and
a half one point one units with Houston last week
against it, so just for the accounting people that want
to keep track of what we're doing here. The bets
made in twenty six, hedge or no hedge counts for

(04:54):
twenty six. The future will count for last year. So
depending on what we do the Patriots against the Seahawks,
we do nothing, that is what we want. So just
because we want that, I got to make sure that
we protect ourselves from both of those tickets. So I'm

(05:14):
gonna bet money line on the Broncos. It's two to one,
So if the Broncos win outright, we get our money back. Basically,
we get the one unit back from the Patriots bet
and we get the one unit bat from the Texans loss.
The Texan bet that we made yet it made last week, Okay,
so it'll be a two unit win, one unit to win.
Two numbers five and a half or five plus two,

(05:36):
ten plus two fifteen somewhere in that range. Find the
best price, bet it money line if you have the
Patriots future. Okay, the numbers aren't great. I'm not gonna
sit here and tell you that the trends are where
you want them to be. If you are a Denver
Bronco fan, Okay, we're talking about numbers. That we haven't
really seen before. We talked about it last week with

(05:58):
the Bears. So we bet the Bears at plus four
because teams at home in the playoffs catching four or
more points are nine to oh ats over the last
fifty years in the postseason. So Bears did it last week.
We were on the Bears. They covered so ten and oh. Really,
so that's a big trend. A lot of things to
look at for this. But the Patriots are undefeated on

(06:20):
the road. They're eight and oh straight up. They're seven
and one against the spread. The Patriots are the second
best team against the spread in the NFL, only one
behind the Seahawks, who went eight and one on the
road against the spread this season. But the Patriots are
the only undefeated team straight up on the road this year.
They are eight and oh. I've been talking about it

(06:41):
all week. When the Patriots have their defensive starters healthy
in Milton Williams, Roberts, Perlane, and Christian Gonzales, they are
sixteen and oh. They're going to have all three of
those guys here up against Jared Stidham, who's trying to
make history. Let's just say the Patriots lose, though, Let's
protect ourselves because I have been betting against I've been

(07:02):
telling you guys at the Broncos we're going to beat
the Patriots, so let's protect ourselves. We're going to go
money line Patriots, Sorry, Broncos money line at plus two
ten for one unit. Now the other game, we have
the fourteen to one on Seattle, and I think we
have no choice but to hedge off that. We have
a bit more wiggle room than we do for the

(07:23):
AFC number. But it would be stupid for us not
to at least break even here with this. And we
break a little more, we can make a little money
if the Seahawks win. We get zero point three to
five units on this because we have the Seahawks one
unit to win fourteen. The Rams are going to be
up against it. But the Rams, this is It's tough, okay.

(07:47):
The Rams are the only zero to two team in
post season history to go oh and two against the
spread and yet not lose in the playoffs, didn't cover
against the Panthers, didn't cover against the Bears, and now
they are two and a half point dogs on the
road in the conference championship game. The Broncos and the
Rams are both coming off of overtime wins in the

(08:10):
divisional round. Since twenty fifteen, teams coming off of an
overtime appearance against a team that was not in overtime
the week before are winning games just a forty four
percent clip. They're just covering at a forty six percent clip.
This year, those teams are eleven and seventeen against the spread.

(08:31):
But if you look at the playoffs, it gets even worse.
For a team that played in an overtime game the
following game, if they win that overtime, they're oho to
five straight up. That's Broncos in rams oh and five
straight up, one in four against the spread. That's not good. Okay,
that's that's just not good. So if you look at

(08:54):
the trend as to where they are not great, Mike
Vrabel has been tremendous, but so is Mike McDonald. Sean
Payton has been I mean, there's all these trends. Rabel
road favorite as a head coach is sixteen and six
straight up with the Patriots and the Titans. The Patriots

(09:15):
in the first half in the sixteen games under Mike
Vrabel are fifteen to zho to one on the first
half money line winning the game by an average in
nine point win the first half by an average of
nine point five points. Mike Vrabel in December or later
is eight and oh straight up as a road favorite
as a head coach. He's a road favorite as a
head coach. Sean Payton is twelve and ten straight up

(09:38):
what he's listed as a home underdog in any game.
That's pretty good. But the Rams are playing their third
consecutive road game this week since division realignment in two
thousand and two. Teams playing on a third consecutive road
game in the playoffs not good. Twelve and thirty straight
up nine and twenty eight against the that's twenty eight

(10:01):
point six percent and twenty four point three percent no good.
Not good. Historically, teams with an indoor outdoor dome stadium
also struggling on the road in a conference championship game.
In the last fifty years, a dome type team like
the Rams zero to fourteen straight up two to twelve

(10:22):
ats in outdoor conference championship games Rams or outdoors against
the Seahawks. So you can twist this around into a
million different ways, but for me, I'm going with the
money line for the Broncos with a hedge and the
Rams on a money line with a hedge at plus
one thirty five. We want to be wrong on both

(10:43):
of those accounts. If we are wrong on both those accounts,
the Patriots are playing the Seahawks in the Super Bowl
and we don't have to do anything. We are guaranteed
to cash a double digit a double digitkick ticket Patriots
or the Seahawks eleven to one or fourteen to one,

(11:04):
and that will make up for the losses that we
have had here with the Jaguars and with uh who
was the other one, Jags and the NFC team where
I'm blanking on who we had a future, Oh, the Niners.
So Jags Niners. We've lost there. We hedged with the Texans.
That's three units right there. So either or we're gonna

(11:26):
drop one unit. Obviously if it's Patriots and the Seahawks,
so there would be four units there. But you're talking,
you know, we're gonna win three or four units coming
off of this. Okay, we're not going to lose any
money on this. Heck, can we win one unit? It's
worth it just to have profitability off of it. So
this is this is a good thing. And remember that number.

(11:46):
Whatever we win for the future, we'll go into twenty
twenty five, will wrap up the year with that. If
whatever we're hedging, we're going to take it and encounter
for the record for this year in twenty twenty six.
Just again, so for some accounting now, teaser wise, I
don't believe the Patriots are gonna give up any points
against Jared Stidham. I also don't think the Patriot's gonna

(12:08):
score many points against Jared Stidham. The totals forty one
and a half, we're gonna pull that up to forty
seven and a half. On the flip side, we're gonna
wind up taking the total for the Rams and the Seahawks.
I was going to bet the under. Talked to to
Pat Fitzmorris on Tuesday Show, and Pat liked the over,

(12:31):
and I was sort of a little bit wishy washy.
I liked the under, But the more I thought about it,
the more I looked at the numbers, I think Pat's right.
I think I'm wrong. So the numbers are quite stark.
The Rams are eight and three on the road this
year to the over. The Seahawks are six and three
at home this year to the over. In the game

(12:52):
that was played in Seattle against the Ram by the
Rams against the Seahawks went over by thirty three points
thirty eight to thirty seven win for Seattle. The total
was forty two in that game. So this total being
forty seven and a half, we're gonna pull it down
to forty one and a half and we're gonna bet
the over that gets us through forty four through forty three.

(13:14):
Those are both key numbers and it gets us a chance.
If it does turn into a bit of a higher
scoring game, we're good there. So I'm gonna tease the
totals Patriots under forty seven and a half and the
Seahawks over forty one and a half for one point
twenty five units for a teaser. So Broncos money line,
Rams money line Patriots under forty seven and a half

(13:36):
and the Seahawks over forty one and a half for
the conference championship games on Sunday. Now two player props
on the betting pros app The hard Bet of the
Day being brought to you by our friends at hard
Rock Bet. This is a big week. There's a lot
of things going on here. Obviously, with two teams try

(13:57):
to punch their ticket to the big game coming up
in Santa Clara. There are so many things going on
here for this standalone matchup. You have same game parlays,
you have in game opportunities, you have prop betting, all
happening at hard Rock Bet. Don't forget about in game wagering.
If you forget to make a bet before kickoff, you
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(14:19):
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Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. So,

(14:40):
like I mentioned, we are doing a little bit of
a system play. Okay, team who loses a conference game
on the road, who then goes and plays at home
in a conference game with a number that's low like
two and a half three Richmond. You might go, wait
what Richmond. No, not the mythical Richmond, the actual Richmond,

(15:03):
the college laying two and a half tonight in a
game where Rhode Island is four and five on the
road this season. However, Rhode Island is one eight and
one against the number over their last ten games. They're
one in four ats in conference, while Richmond is three

(15:27):
and three. We've gone twelve and eight so far on
the hard rock bet of the day, and We're gonna
go ahead and take a team that I've never seen
play basketball. I miss going on numbers. Okay, this is
just a straight numbers play. Haven't watched Richmond, haven't watched
Rhode Island, just looking at the numbers. Though, Richmond six
and five ats at home, Richmond's three and three in

(15:47):
the A ten for them ats wise, Rhode Island was
decent early, but they have been atrocious, with one cover
since the Since the twenty sixth of No November, they've
covered one time over that stretch. Richmond is coming off
of a twenty five point loss to Saint Louis. They

(16:09):
were catching fifteen, they lost by twenty five, but in
the last home game against the sal they were laying
eight and they won by twenty one points. On the
road loss, come home with a short number, let's play
it out again. Last night it was Iowa State in
Arkansas that cash on this. Let's play this here for
Rhode Island on the road against Richmond, and let's lay

(16:31):
the two and a half points here for Richmond for
the hard rock bet of the day. So Richmond laying
two and a half, We're gonna go with two NBA
player props on the BP app. Later on today, Bronco's
money line hedge on the Patriots future rams money line
hedge on the future for the Seahawks Patriots under forty

(16:53):
seven and a half teas with the Seahawks of over
forty one and a half for Sunday Minus Matt Paroltz.
You guys can follow me across my socials at Sports
Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.
It is the Daily Juice
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