How Many Active Hall of Famers are There?? (with Foolish Baseball)

Talkin' Jake is joined by Foolish Bailey to figure out how many Hall of Famers are playing RIGHT NOW

Wake n Jake is available on YouTube! Check out everything from this show there: https://www.youtube.com/@WakeNJake

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Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
4:00 The Hall is Smaller 
5:30 Shoo-In Hitters
10:45 Shohei Ohtani
12:35 30 Year Olds Who Can Lose It
20:05 Young Studs
25:00 Inconsistent Careers
28:40 LOCK Pitchers
35:35 deGrom & Chris Sale
43:40 Funny Pitcher Names Who Have a Chance
48:50 Giancarlo Stanton & Kyle Schwarber
52:40 Catchers??
59:10 Fun Hitter Names

#dpshow

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, and welcome to Awaken Jake, a special Foolish Bailey episode.
And we're talking about I guess we're thinking active Hall
of Famers today. And you had texted me this idea,
and it was right after I gave out as an
award on Talking Baseball that I was like, Christian Yelich

(00:21):
is oddly close to the Hall, more closer than I
thought to the Hall of Fame, especially with how he's
playing this year. I think MVP's in the bag. Speak
But and you, I mean you built on a lot
more than that. You've kind of got them by percentage points.
We've got hitters, we've got pictures, and we've kind of
got the oddball. So before we get there, Bailey a

(00:42):
final one and then I'm done. I'm sorry, I came
twenty five minutes late. We're recording watching Guts ad, so
genuine apology has been served. And Bailey as my daddy
for this episode. How are you?

Speaker 2 (00:57):
I'm doing well, son, How are you?

Speaker 1 (00:59):
It's good to be home. It's good to be home. Hey,
I we joked half joked about it beforehand, but carry
the rock, give me, give me some of your your
thoughts to even get into this exercise, and then I
think we'll work our way down with with the locks
and go from there.

Speaker 2 (01:17):
Yeah. My first thoughts are, you know, when you're discussing
the concept of active player Hall of Famers, that's something
you can do a check on in almost every year, right,
because some guys fall off pace, some guys were off pace,
and they get back on pace. You know, some guys
emerge and have monster seasons. You know, maybe like here's
a good example. A couple of years ago, Paul Golchmid
won MVP and then all of a sudden he became

(01:38):
like a pretty like easy Hall of Famer to project,
Whereas before that, you you know, his case would have
been ignored and uh, you know, he probably could have
still made it on the writer's ballot. But now it's
just because of one big season that Paul Golchman had
that was like wrapping the nice little bow on a
Hall of Fame career, and then everything else he's done
since then is gravy. But the big thing I want

(01:59):
to say before we get into this exercise is there's
elements of this that are reading the tea leads. Right.
You have to not just think who do I foolish
Bailey or who do you speaking, Jacob, prefer to see
in the Hall of Fame. You're trying to find, you know,
who are the guys that the BBWAA are going to
vote in at a seventy five percent threshold. And there's
disagreements there sometimes, right Like, there are players that I

(02:22):
would personally go to bat for that I wouldn't think
would have a chance on a BBWA ballot. So that's
kind of what I'm trying to project. And then also,
you know, keep this in the back of your mind
as well, there are more there are multiple ways into
the Hall of Fame. So even if you don't get
Envya that writer's ballot, there are certain guys I think
who have more of a veterans committee type vibe to
them that are even active players right now, And there's
one that's definitely coming to mind for me, and we'll

(02:44):
get to them a little bit later, but that's sort
of the preface the intro here. We're discussing, you know,
active players who could definitely be Hall of Famers, active
players who are maybe more fifty to fifty active players
who have an outside shot. We're talking about the concept
of Hall of Fame pace. But I think the big
thing is we're trying to sort of read the tea
leaves and figure out what the Baseball Riders would do
or the Veterans Committee would do, not necessarily what we think.

Speaker 1 (03:07):
Bailey, as everyone just heard, you're a little more calculated
than I am. Usually the math I just did in
my head which shouldn't be respected, but I'll tell you
and let me know what's right. If this exercise was like, like,
let's get hardcore about it in lock in answers how
many Hall of Famers are normally playing at a time,

(03:28):
the math I just did in my head was that
like two and a half guys get let in every year,
and if I just did like a ten year time frame,
there'd be like twenty five active players who are Hall
of Famers. Is that number crazy or dumb?

Speaker 2 (03:43):
Well, what's funny is the it's harder and harder to
get into the Hall of Famer, which is funny because
people seem to think it's easier. If you look at
baseball history as a whole, there were times in like
the twenties and thirties where fifteen to twenty percent of
played appearances were taken by eventual future Hall of famers,
which is crazy think about, right, And that number is
actually declined. And one reason that number has declined is

(04:05):
because of expansion, right. So you know, back in those days,
you know they're you know, eight teams or sixteen teams,
you know, eight teams in each league. Nowadays we have
thirty teams, and so there's way more players, and there's
more players on each roster, and so as a result,
you know, the percentage of played appearances that are taken
by Hall of Fame hitters decreases over the course of

(04:26):
baseball history for the most part, and the percentage hittings
pitched by Hall of Fame pitchers same thing. So it's
interesting too because I think we'll get into this later.
But like, obviously the standards of Hall of Fame pitchers
are going to have to change because or else nobody,
no pitcher under the age of like thirty five is
ever going to get in. But so's that's a big thing.

(04:46):
But I would almost project it being as like right now,
if I just had to guess just looking at I
would say there's probably about any twenty to twenty five
active Hall of Fame hitters, and maybe assume the standards changed.
I think they'll have to ten to fifteen Hall of
Fame pitchers something like that.

Speaker 1 (05:05):
Okay, so a little more than I did with my
turkey math there. Uh, let's let's start chewing off. And
this is always one of those funny exercises that it's
like the weird ones that are probably the fun silly
conversations of Wake and Jake. We need to save just
because I you know, we gotta check some boxes along
the way, because it feels more rude to be fifty

(05:27):
five minutes in and go. Mike Trout's a lot. So
let's let's let's check some of the big boys. You
labeled these one hundred, Well you have one hundred percent,
ninety five and ninety. I'll let you cook for the
people we'll do. We'll do some hitters first.

Speaker 2 (05:43):
Yeah, these are so. I think there's four hitters right
now who if they just retire today, get into the
Hall of Fame. It's Mike Trout, it's Mookie Betts, It's
Joey Vauto, and for me, it's Paul gold Schmid, who
I just discussed. I really think that that MVP put
them over the top. I think those are the four
guys that they don't have to play another game of
baseball if they don't want to, Like to me, they're in.
I think with regards to Trout and Betts, I don't

(06:05):
think anyone has any doubts about that. I think with
Vadua and Goldschmidt they might not necessarily be first ballot
because you're looking at, you know, a more sabermetric case
probably for both of those guys, but they're they're both great,
they both had excellent careers. I think those are for me,
the four that if they retire today, they're in.

Speaker 1 (06:21):
Yeah. I mean if you're a war person. Joey Vado
lands early close to Miguel Cabrera, which surprising a little bit.
And yeah, I think everyone surrounding these guys except Rafael
Palmerow and Mark Maguire are Hall of famers. So yeah,
I thought about even trying to find some devil's advocate

(06:44):
for those two because I think, if you maybe this
is horribly rude when I think, ah, I guess when
you start thinking Scott Roland and some of the newer guys,
like I do think these guys are that tier and
I'm not really a Hall of Fame snob. I just
think it's a I guess it's a little surprising you've
got first basement each have one MVP. Maybe I'm being

(07:05):
big market snobby a little bit here, but these guys
are in.

Speaker 2 (07:11):
Yeah, I think they're in. I think the question is, uh,
you know, moving on to that ninety five percent tier
if there's another first basement that's already one hundred percent tier.
So I'm I'm we're gonna move into these guys that
I'm gonna say they're just putting on the finishing touches
for their careers. They've they've basically got it, but they're
putting on the finishing touches of their Hall of Fame careers.
And I have three players in that tier, three hitters

(07:32):
to be specific. Uh, And I have Bryce Harper, Freddy Freeman,
and Nolan Arenado in this tier. They have basically done it,
they have basically made it, but they're putting on the
finishing touches in ways that Trout, Betts, Vodo, and gold
Schmidt don't necessarily have to. Do You agree with the opinion,
for example, that Vado and Goldschmid are like locks, and
Freddy Freeman is still putting on the the finishing touches.

Speaker 1 (07:54):
Yeah, I guess this part of the mental exercise for
me is like, you know, how anal are we being
about it? Like if Bryce Harper stopped playing baseball as
of today, which again becomes a dramatic statement, I mean probably,
but it's like, okay, what happened, Like Bryce Harper moved
Argentina start a new life and we just never saw

(08:16):
him again, and it's like an all time thirty for thirty.
I don't know, like you probably still do get that
guy in the Hall of Fame, Like I do think
the numbers are if we're if we were being like that,
I think the numbers would be a year or two short.
But we think, you know, worst case for Bryce Harper,
if injuries were to kick in, he got old and

(08:36):
he lost it, Like he's probably still gonna stumble into
like twenty homers at how many five years over the
next eight Again, I'm just making them numbers, but yeah,
I like, I don't think where their final numbers are
right now, but I think like it's happening, like.

Speaker 2 (08:54):
Yeah, it's happen, like they're basically in but I'm just
not quite like, you know, Harper has sixteen hundred hits
and three hundred and twenty six career home runs like that.
You know, that's that's below those standards, right, And but
he's gonna he has the contract to put up the
counting stats to get him to where he needs to be,
you know, And he has two MVPs.

Speaker 1 (09:13):
So yeah, and maybe that's maybe that's the better way
to look at this, and why you put the percentages
on him, Like unless the five percent chance that Bryce
Harper has a Chris Davis moment tough at for Phillies
fans right now, then yeah, things become a little trickier.
But two time MVP like it's happening. And I think
Aeronauto too, He's gonna go down as a historic third baseman.

(09:36):
Like I think I think people overlook some of his
hitting numbers because they just think of a like Aeronaut
of the defensive guy. Now that we are a little
less rude to Corsfield offensive numbers sometimes, like Aeronato's amazing
one of like when you start doing third baseman defense
in peak seasons, he can go toe to toe with anyone.

Speaker 2 (09:58):
Yeah, absolutely, I mean, and he's you know, when you
park adjust it and and I mean there's only one
Brooks Robinson, but I mean Ironod has probably been a
better hitter than Brooks Robinson, you know, for example, and
he would stack up nicely against some of the other
you know, defensive third base rates with his bat as well,
like just total all round career.

Speaker 3 (10:17):
And like the think when you think about what ninety
five and we're about to get to ninety percent really
means like they stop right now. It's like, yeah, there's
a chance they wouldn't get enough votes right now. Yeah,
I mean right, put in a few more years of
getting some counting numbers or one more postseason moment.

Speaker 1 (10:34):
The next guy you could argue is one hundred percent,
because he'll be a part of the Hall of Fame
no matter what happens. You labeled it the show Aotani category.

Speaker 2 (10:44):
Yeah, I have show Heyotani at ninety percent right now.
I mean it's it's hard to envision a scenario where
Otani doesn't make the Hall of Fame. It's probably something
like he doesn't ever pitch again and he is like
a pretty mid DH for like the next ten years.
But even then, I mean he probably would get in.

(11:05):
But yeah, I mean one reason to not just crown
Otani just yet. He's only played seven seasons in the
big leagues. Usually the requirement is ten. That's been waived
a couple of times. But I think Addie Joss was
an example because he died, but for the most part,
you got to play ten seasons and then so Atan
he's not there yet. So I've got him right at
the ninety percent mark. Like it, He's like ninety percent

(11:27):
of his way to the Hall of Fame. And the
only thing that could probably stop him now is some
combination of never pitches again, underperforms as a DH and
the Dodgers don't win a World Series. That's that would
be sort of the path for him to somehow not
be a Hall of Famer. The Curse of Epey, The
Curse of Epey.

Speaker 1 (11:48):
I you know, it's something. I think there's some pages
that you just have to absolutely throw it out. There's
some pages where it's interesting the similar batters through in
their age on the Baseball Reference page. When you scroll down,
it's usually right above their salaries, and it's it's funny
to see because for I guess for regular players, I

(12:11):
think you get a grab bag. You'll get like, wait,
they're the same as x y Z who was a stud,
and then they're the same as x y Z, who
is not as much of a stud. And I want
to save that for a couple of the examples that
are coming up, because you have thirty or older excellent
pace but still time to lose it, and then young studs,
and I think I want to combine those two.

Speaker 2 (12:34):
Okay, yeah, I like that. So yeah. The next sor
of tier of guys I had were are guys who
are they're thirty or older. They've they've probably played the
majority of their careers at this point, and they're on
excellent pace, but there is still time to lose that pace,
because some guys they just they lose it, you know,
at at age thirty one, thirty two, thirty three. There

(12:55):
are a lot of guys who are Hall of famers
through age thirty and then the tailoff happens. I would
actually argue that for most part a lot of guys,
what happens in their thirties basically makes or breaks whether
they're Hall of famers, because there's a lot of guys
who are great players in their twenties and then forever
whatever reasons, aren't in their thirties. That so the next
that next tier of player I have, it's it's Manny Machado,
it's Jose Ramirez, it's Aaron Judge, it's Francisco Lindor and uh.

(13:19):
I will point out something here specifically with regards to
the separation of Machado and Ronado, like this is definitely
a reading the tea leaf situation. I would rate Machado
an Arnatto in terms of their just career value very similarly.
I would also point out that Machado is younger than Ronado.
I would also point out that Machado is probably right

(13:40):
now looking slightly less washed than Arnauto and probably has
more future value to put out on the field than Arnaudo.
But like just arnaut has more accolades, and I just
Machado has a reputation from early in his career that's
maybe not the greatest. And I just feel like, looking
at the tea leaves that the writers would would you know,

(14:00):
rather vote for Nolan Arnatto today than Manny Machado. So
man michaud was kind of in that lower tier. Jay
Ram's a funny one for me. I love Jose Ramirez.
He's my favorite player in Major League Baseball straight up
has been for years. The guy's just been playing in
an absolute insane level for like the last seven or
eight seasons. He had one slight misstep in the first
half of like twenty nineteen, and everyone thought he was

(14:22):
just a flash in the pan, and then no, he
just kept doing He just kept doing it, and now
you look at his career and it's like, yeah, this
guy's clearly on pace to be a Hall of Famer,
you know, Judge, I mean I feel like that's that
would be an intriguing one if he, like if his
career like were to like end earlier here, to have
a steep decline, that would be an interesting discussion, right,
Like he would almost be uh de gram esque is

(14:43):
as a hitter instead, you know, just like someone who's
had like just some of the highest highs we've seen.
And then but maybe not the just the longest career.
And then Francisco Lindor I would say Lindor is kind
of similar to Jay Ram the way their careers are
taking shape. I mean just just so consistent. Just it's
just five six war every year, like just rack it up,

(15:05):
you know, uh yeah, those those from you are the
four in that thirty year older excellent Hall of Fame pace,
but there is still time to lose out on that
pace because it happens.

Speaker 1 (15:14):
Yeah, that's the that's the rub. Uh. And this is
I want this to come off as a fence to you,
I guess I one my favorite thing about podcasting is
discovering things along the way. Aeronato and Machado, Like in
my head, those are layups. Like even even Jay Ram

(15:35):
at this point, I've seen him be so good for
so long, it's like, well, what's what's a Hall of Famer? Uh?
When you get sucked into war, which isn't everything, but
I feel like Hall of Fame wise especially, I like
looking at the positions and kind of by leaderboard and
seeing where there's a clear drop off at third base.
Scott Roland was like an argument. Like Scott Roland was

(15:59):
a discussion. He's at seventy point one career war. These
guys were talking about Aeronado and Machado are at fifty five.
Evan Longora is at fifty eight to six. So if
father time actually kicks in, it's one of those. And

(16:19):
I think it was our first episode that did really well,
and we were looking for guys at tier two, tiers
below this, but it's always becomes the Hall of very
good discussion that man if Aernato or Machado or Jay
Ram slow it down or even if these guys don't
keep it up for a couple more years, they're gonna

(16:40):
fall into a much bigger limbo area that I wonder,
like because I'm seeing Greg Nettles here with sixty eight
war that I don't know, if let's say Aeronado slows
down and lands at sixty one, he's got a couple
more things on his trophy case. But I don't know
that becomes an ugly old man baseball rider discussion.

Speaker 2 (17:04):
Yeah, I hear you on that one. There's there's a
tier of like well like like a well rounded second
basement and third baseman like post like expansion era type
guys Greg Nettles, Can Boy or Buddy Bell at third base.
I throught like Bobby Gritch there, Lew Whittaker at second base,
Guys who aren't in the Hall of Fame, but you know,

(17:25):
put up a lot of war. And I would say
the difference now is I just feel like probably just
speaking like in terms of their their eras, like Arnatto
especially but also machadoh and Jay Ram like just got
more love, got more love for what they they did
in their time than probably Greg Nettles or Ken Boy
or Buddy Bell did in their time, or Bobby Gritch

(17:47):
or or Lo Whitaker for that matter. And that's because
some of the ways we viewed baseball have changed, and
it's you know, defensive metrics. Taking those into account, that's
obviously gonna boost those guys value. So yeah, I mean
it's a great point, but there is certainly scenarios where
Arnado and Machado finished with less war than some of

(18:08):
those guys and yet having much easier path to the
Hall of Fame.

Speaker 1 (18:13):
And I think, again, this becomes weird because I like
Manny Machado. He could be one of the best players
in the second half this season, and it wouldn't you know,
if it pops up that after the All Star break
he has a nine to seventy one oh ps and
he played some of the best defense. It's like, oh, yeah,
that's right. He was hurt to start the year. Like,
you know, you can do the world of baseball so easily.

(18:35):
I mean, we one of the names we just said,
like isn't getting in, right, Like, I don't know how
it happens, but at this point of the exercise, something
happens to someone.

Speaker 2 (18:49):
Let me, let's do the math. If I say, each
of those guys have an eighty percent chance to get in, Like,
what's the chance that you know, one of them doesn't
get in? Basically doing it right now?

Speaker 1 (19:00):
Never been a math guy.

Speaker 2 (19:01):
Yeah, so it's like, yeah, so it's about fifty to fifty.
It's really about sixty forty. But yeah, I mean, the
chances are one of those guys doesn't get in, you know,
And if I had to guess, oh, I would say
it would be it's probably either jay Ram or Lindor.
For me, I'm gonna go Lindor just because even now

(19:22):
he's so good and I just don't feel like he
gets the love.

Speaker 1 (19:25):
Yeah, it's kind of weird, right, It's almost like the
contract got too big or just Mets effect. But you know, like,
why isn't he an All star right now? I might
be by the time this comes out, But yeah, I
wonder you know, if Manny fell off a cliff, you know,
like you said he had the young guy, Like the

(19:46):
media wasn't the best to him because he was like
an aggressive young player that I don't know, it feels
even dirty saying something like that, so I don't want
to even say it anymore, so I might just keep
it moving.

Speaker 2 (20:02):
Yeah, let's keep it moving. Let's let's talk about the
next tier. I've got some young studs here. They do
not obviously have the counting numbers yet to have a
Hall of Fame career, but it just seems like they're
pacing well. I've got Soto on there. I think that's
probably the the closest thing to a slam dunk Hall
of Famer we have for anyone who I'm gonna say
is under the age of thirty. Now that Otani's thirty,

(20:22):
I'm gonna say, of any eighty player baseball right now
who's under the age of thirty, who's definitely gonna be
a Hall of Famer, I'm gonna say, want Soto gap
there for me. But then I'm gonna follow up with
Acunya endeavors Akunya with the second ACL tear on the
different knee, like that's scary, Like that's interesting, that like
that long term that could be difficult, But obviously he
was pacing well. Obviously he has, he has an MVP,

(20:44):
which Soto doesn't have yet, and then I have Deffer.
I have Rafael Devers in that category as well. I
just think it's more of like like, maybe I don't
think he's gonna blow anyone's mind with like and he's
not gonna put up like eighty war in his career
or anything like that that makes them like a slam dunk,
but just like the way he's gonna do it, Like
he's gonna have the counting stats because he started so early,

(21:05):
he's gonna be, you know, a Boston Red Sox guy.
He's got the big contract extension. Like it just seems
like he just the way his career is taking shape,
he's in a pretty good spot.

Speaker 1 (21:17):
Yeah. I always get nervous about saying scouting type things,
but whatever it is about how Devers hits, it feels
like that will work. Maybe it's just because we saw
Poppy with like a lefty swing do it for so
long and bought like it literally could be that, but
I don't think it is. I think there's something about
how raffy Devers hits that you're just like that will

(21:38):
work for a while.

Speaker 2 (21:40):
Well, And it's what's funny too, is he's such like
a bat he's such a bad ball hitter too, And
I think sometimes people think that doesn't age. Well. I
think part of it too, is like look at his
like physique. You know, it's like he has the physique
already of a guy who's like a little bit older probably,
so it's like he can already play in that body.

(22:01):
You know, he's just gonna keep doing this. He'll probably
have to move to first base, but otherwise, like that's
his defense isn't gonna be what get him in the
first place. He's just gonna keep hitting everything.

Speaker 1 (22:10):
He hits everything. We just saw that recently. Yeah, if
I if I had to rank those three, it's Soto.
I mean, this is the the similar batters through age
twenty four. The names that pop out, I'm gonna leave
a couple out we'll see soon. H Bryce Harper, Frank Robinson,
Andrew Jones, Okay, Mike Trout, Ken, Griffy Junior, Wan Gonzalez,

(22:32):
Orlando Sepeida, Miguel Cabrera, Eddie Matthews. So it's like, this
one's for me, one of those how few guys are
this good at that age? And yeah, and the Ronnie
stuff honestly scares me.

Speaker 2 (22:45):
Yeah, long term, it's definitely scary.

Speaker 1 (22:48):
You know, I hope, I hope the pivot point on that.
It's something I bring up a lot, Trevor Tease, the
idea of a thick old Mike Trout still hitting forty
homers one day, and I really like that him that,
you know, Ronald Cunya, like if the speed leaves, maybe
he just you know, maybe Ronald Cunya looks like Marcelo
Zuna in eight years and he's just a thick daddy

(23:11):
that ropes balls like that happens.

Speaker 2 (23:14):
Yeah. And the other thing too is if he isn't,
if that doesn't happen, then he's basically Eric Davis, you know.
Like that that is an example of someone who had
an Akunya esque, you know, a mirror career through let's
say age twenty seven, and then you know, the injuries
got to him. So there are guys like that. Andrew
Jones was a great name that you pulled out there.

(23:35):
That's a guy who through age twenty nine would have
been such a slam dunk on this list. And then
he's I mean, he's it's a like it's a struggle
right now, like he's on the writer's ballot. It's gonna
probably come down to the wire there a go. I mean,
there was a time where probably would have seemed like
Ryan Howard was gonna be, you know, like an easy
Hall of Famer. So it's it's it's tough to say
that these guys' careers, they can certainly take a turn.

Speaker 1 (23:58):
They kept him in the miners for two long Let's
get to the next part. I'm gonna let you dictate
that whether we want to round off hitters or move
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Do you want to do the meaty pitchers first and
then we finish with like the most fun fringe players,
or do you want to do some of these funky
fringe hitters and we'll just go hitting and then pitching.

Speaker 2 (24:58):
Here's what I would do, the next tier of hitters,
and then I want to move on to the pitchers. Sure,
so the next tier of hitters, and we'll try to
speed things up a little bit now because we're getting
into sort of like the less likely cases. This is
what I've called. These guys have had inconsistent careers and
though recently they have come into like a pretty high
level of play, and they need to keep doing that, basically,

(25:21):
keep doing that for let's say, three, four or five
more years and see where they're at. Those players are
Marcus Simey and Corey Seeger, Christian Yelich, and Carlos Korea.
Those guys have had their ups and downs Seeger. It's
been more so injury, Simi and it's been you know,
being an MVP runner up and then they're not being good,
and then being an MVP finalist and not good. Yeah,

(25:41):
it's Korea. It's been documented. But those guys, at least
within the last calendar year have played very good baseball.
And it's just a question of how long can they
keep it up, Because if they can keep it up
for three, four or five years, then hey we've got
something here. But otherwise there's too much inconsistency early on

(26:02):
in their careers to make it happen.

Speaker 1 (26:04):
Who would be your uh, who would be your horse
if you got twenty bucks to put down on either
of those four?

Speaker 2 (26:10):
Seeger? I just love Seger. I know this probably of
these four, he's had maybe the worst year, maybe the
worst twenty twenty four so far. But I just yeah, yeah,
that's true. I would Yeah, I would go Seeger. I
just think just just something about his approach man like
he's special. I would love to see it be him.

Speaker 1 (26:32):
Yeah, I mean they Well, God, I was gonna say
Correa is maybe the safest bet, just because with he
bounce back with age. This was also a guy that
I think real medical doctors, advised teams do not give
this man money because I was just going to play
the injury card for Seeger and that was Correa's whole

(26:54):
free agency.

Speaker 2 (26:56):
Yeah, it's it's pretty unbelievable Corea is having the first
half that he's having right now. I mean, it's it's
been so fun to watch. I'm so happy for him.
But yeah, I mean he literally signed two contracts and
then they backed out. Uh because uh, and the quote
was the worst ankle I've ever seen. I think that's
still gonna pick that.

Speaker 1 (27:13):
The doctor said that wherest he's ever seen.

Speaker 2 (27:18):
Yeah, but also like he has forty four career war
and this is his age twenty nine season, right, That's
like that is that's why he's the safest.

Speaker 1 (27:26):
Yeah, And that's where and I dude, I love Corey Sieger.
I when whenever the best hitter argument gets brought up,
I usually start with Freddy because it just feels so natural,
And then someone brings up Seger and I'm like, he
has an interesting argument, But then it's also bizarre because like,
you know, no MVP in the bag second last year,
but I don't know. Uh, And I think he's picking

(27:49):
up speed right now that as long as this cat
stays on the field, but he's got like a little
bit of a real injury history there, so and that,
like let's say he's he's good but semi banged up
the next couple years, he's to where Korea is right now. Yeah,
so that's one of those like I don't know, Corey

(28:11):
Seeker's awesome and doing stuff at shorts up we've like
literally never seen and like you said, if you don't
keep it going in the thirties, it just changes the
whole outlook, which is bizarre because I'll tell you what
body changes not in a puberty, like whoa, look at
this Body's like, oh easy, Cory, easy, Jacob, Who am

(28:33):
I even talking to at that point? Let's go, let's
do the big pictures, the lock you have a big
four here, and then I think it'll be fun to
bounce around to some more Bailey Bailey Jake type categories.
But go go off king on your pictures.

Speaker 2 (28:53):
Yeah, there's four active pictures. I'm gonna include Zach Ranki
in this because he's not officially retired. Maybe he's still
biding his time, Maybe he'll maybe, maybe he'll pitch in
the big leagues this year. We just don't know. But
justin Verlinder, Clayton, Kershaw, Max Schers, or in Zach Greenkier
Hall of Famers, they represent sort of the last of
a generation of workhorse pictures that we may never see again.

(29:15):
And those are the one hundred percent locks. You know.
After that we have Otani, but that's a different case.
He's at a ninety percent same same as before. And
then slightly following you know, that generation of pictures, the Verlander,
Kershaw'schers or Granky. I have Garrett Cole with an eighty
percent chance. And that's cause that's gonna be you know,

(29:35):
once those four get in that those who being Verlander,
Kershawschers or Granky, it's gonna be like you just look
at the pictures that are around, and it's gonna be
like Wow, either it's Garrett Cole or just nobody gets
in forever, you know, And I would choose to I
would choose Garrett Cole. I would bet on Garrett Cole
in this scenario. Getting that cy Young last year really helped.
I think that's something that people would definitely look at.

Speaker 1 (29:57):
The cy Young's huge. It's it's still crazy. He didn't
get the what was it twenty nineteen JV sneaks it
from him. Uh yeah, I mean Garrett, like you're saying,
he's he's on the path and the whole like half
the appeal of Garrett Cole is that this is this
should continue, like his throwing motion, his body type, like

(30:20):
that's that's the cell. That's why the Yankees have been
obsessed with him, that they gained that contract. So yeah,
I mean, it's if he can ever stumble into the
second side. I mean he is. He's thirty three now,
turns thirty four this year. But a lot of the
Big four you just named, I mean, Verlander's still twirling
the pill. I think. Sure. I actually haven't watched herzer,

(30:41):
but the stat line hasn't been too too bad, I
don't think. But yeah, that's a historic four. And yeah
it's funny Garrett acts like he's in that company and
he is, but also he's like right outside the front door.

Speaker 2 (30:59):
Yeah, I mean, Garrett, Garrett had a really good year
with the Pirates. It was like twenty fifteen, I think.
But like I mean, if you look at where like, uh,
those four were in twenty fifteen, Like, yeah, they're not
quite of the same generation to me, even though I
guess he's probably only like, what two years younger than Kershaw,
one year younger than Kershaw or something like that.

Speaker 1 (31:19):
Oh my god, what's up with that guy? Is he
coming back? What's the Kershaw up? Dave Biebes, you're on
it looking for it? Hurt nothing on the beat. Love
this because this has been the one. And hey, maybe
we do start judging pitching differently. And I don't know
if that helps or hurts this this group of guys,

(31:41):
but I every time I end up on these three
guys Baseball Reference page, I end up rolling my eyes
and I'm like, they are Hall of famers, Like it's over.

Speaker 2 (31:51):
Yeah, well who are those again?

Speaker 1 (31:55):
Dirty Craig Kimberl, ken Lee Janssen, and Eraaldus Chapman.

Speaker 2 (32:00):
Because if you just look at the all time Saves
leader board, like there they are sandwiched among all the
other reliever Hall of famers, right.

Speaker 1 (32:06):
It's them. It's them in the Hall of Fame. So
unless they drastically decide to devalue relief pitching saves and
value starting pitching differently, which feels horribly rude to a
generation of relievers, but yeah, those guys have to be
in and they're still. I mean, Chappie is obviously, I

(32:30):
don't know, he was on the Rangers last year in
the biggest innings of the World Series. Like if he
ends up having some weird closer seasons in bizarre places,
I could see that happening. Craig Kimberl is closing for
the best team in the American League right now and
closing well, and ken Lee Jansen is closing very well
for the hottest team in the ALE.

Speaker 2 (32:50):
Yeah, it's pretty unbelievable. And what's so funny too, is
like like just think about like the reputation some of
the other like Hall of Fame reliever, even the recent
inductees we've seen. Rivera obviously is on a tier of
his own, but uh, Hoffman or Lee Smith got in
right at the bitter end, and you know, Billy Wagner
is a guy you know who just missed last voting cycle.

(33:14):
And it's like, yeah, but like people were just so
much more scared to watch Kimberl, Jansen and Chapman close
for the majority of their careers, Like like fans of
those teams were like biting their nails more in a
way that like when Trevor Hoffman came in like it
felt like it was over. You know what?

Speaker 1 (33:30):
What is that? By the way, is that just like
us not having access to enough TV that it was like,
you see Trevor Hoffman's stats and odds are the one
time your team plays them and he pitches, he's gonna
be good. So we're just like Trevor that change up
or I mean, is his because his whip can't be
in like that much different of an area code than Kimbrel.

Speaker 2 (33:50):
Right, Well, I would bet I would guess his whip
is probably higher than all three of those guys. That's
gonna be my guest right now. But yeah, no, I
that may be a good point, Jake, that you know,
you just checked the box score in the newspaper the
next day and he gets the save and you're like, well,
that's the save, right, but you don't Maybe you don't
see that he walked the leadoff guy and then someone

(34:10):
got a scrappy infield single and then he had to
work his way out of it.

Speaker 1 (34:13):
God, I haven't been on Trevor Hoffman's page a lot.
Look at this beauty. Oh God, second in the cy
Young and O six second in the cy Young in
ninety eight bugs, bunny change up, real strikeouts per inning.
Good for you. Where's the whip. Let's see he's.

Speaker 2 (34:30):
Got he's got Chapman beat on whip. He does not
have Kenley beat and let's yeah, so he's between ranking
those in whip. The best is ken Lee, then it's Kimberle,
then it's Hoffman, then it's Chapman.

Speaker 1 (34:45):
It's funny, funny position, funny going cross airs. Those guys
have to be in. They're they're historic, and I guess
in a way like they're part of a revolutionized game.
I know there were closers, but for these guys to
do it for that long, not a lot of guys
have done it. That's the whole point of the Hall
of Fame.

Speaker 2 (35:03):
Yeah, and can I can I point out something too,
like because I think the way that the closer position
has actually been used in like the last five or
ten years, where it's like more fluid, and you know,
you see guys take on the closer role for a
year or two and then maybe they're a setup man
the next year, maybe they're like a multi inning, high
leverage guy. It's gonna be really hard for any picture,
I think to rack up four hundred saves. Ever again,

(35:26):
and you look at some of even that the great
active relievers right now, it's it would be very hard
for me to project anyone to get to four hundred saves.

Speaker 1 (35:32):
Yeah, and then after that part of the list, you
part of the list, what is that you have everyone
forty percent or lower? So maybe let's hop around the pictures, okay,
because you know, I think there's a lot of great
conversations from top to bottom of this current list, and

(35:53):
then we can hop back to some of the silly
hitter ones.

Speaker 2 (35:58):
Yeah. So the next sort of tier of pictures I've
got is, uh, guys where we're probably going to have
to reassess the position to some degree because once it's
verlanders kershawschers are granky, and then probably a little afterwards
coal like assume those guys get in. My light just fell.
That freaked me out a little bit. Sorry. Once that

(36:18):
gets in, then it's just like a wasteland because like,
no one who's going to get to two hundred wins,
who's going to get to three thousand strikeouts? You know
those those general marks we see who's going to get
to sixty war It's hard to see anyone doing that
at the starting picture position that there have been, you know,
a lot of discussions. It seems like the position itself
is in crisis, and so the standards will have to change.
So de Gram is in that tier, and uh, Chris

(36:41):
Saale is in that tier as well, and then I
have kind of a fun one to to round out
that tier. Sandiel Contra. De Gram is kind of self explanatory, right, Like,
here's a guy who had who's had insane Hall of
Fame peak, who probably on like a start for start basis,
is up there with any picture when he's at his best.
But you know, I mean, look, I mean, how many

(37:02):
innings has Jacob de Grom thrown in his major league
career because he got started late to Jacob Graham has
thrown thirteen hundred innings, right Like, he's closer to you know,
the relievers we just talked about than the workhorse starting
pitcher tier in terms of innings pitch. So I almost
think looking at the Gram as a reliever to some
degree makes sense because you might say, hey, oh, this

(37:23):
is like, you know, Billy Wagner times one point five
or something like that, So that would be one way
to look at it. Sale's a fun one because I
think like, if you look at Sale, it's like like,
like we just accepted that, like Lindsa Cum wasn't a
Hall of Famer, and we are like, I think probably

(37:44):
somewhat okay with the idea that like Felix Fernandez might
not be a Hall of Famer, but like Sale's gonna
sandwich in somewhere in that tier, right, like of just
guys who had like Hall of Fame peaks but maybe
didn't have the year surrounding it to make it happen.
We'll see what happens with Sale, because he may just
have like a lot more in the tank. I mean,
he's an All Star this year. He's he's having a

(38:04):
monster bounce back. But I think people would have definitely
counted him out even you know, six months ago in
those discussions. But I think he's got a good chance
to get in there, just because I mean, the strikeout
to walk rate is going to be something that like
he's gonna, you know, be the all time leader in
basically after a certain innings pitched threshold, a one thirty
eight career era plus is pretty insane. If he could

(38:27):
round it out with a Cy Young this year, I
mean that would be pretty amazing. So he's in that
discussion for me, and then Sandiel Contra. He's the fun
one for me because you know, like let's say a
year ago, right, you know, if you to ask me,
you know who, if any starting pitcher under the age
of like thirty, who has at least just a small chance, right,

(38:47):
I would say Sandy. And what's funny about Sandy is
just right now, like, assume he comes back, Assume he's great.
He has forty one career wins, you know, because he's
pitched for the Marlins his whole career, right, So it's like,
there's no chance he'll ever get to two hundred wins.
He'll probably never get to one hundred and fifty wins,
and yet he could still have a really good career.
So I'm putting him some sort of in that if

(39:08):
we reassess the position with regards to some of these
traditional counting metrics.

Speaker 1 (39:12):
Yeah, and I view numbers through a very basic lens
of Sandy al Kintara doubled his career. That's eighty two wins. Yeah,
and I don't you know, between pitcher injuries and stuff,
I don't know, Chris Sale is the one that really
tilted my head seeing him seeing a how well he's

(39:35):
pitch this year? B I think it popped up. It's
his eighth All Star game. That the dominance And again
maybe this is where I'm a loser and getting caught
up in the condor and just the image of Chris Sale.
But if we're if we're tweaking how we look at

(39:55):
pictures from this era, which we're going we have to
because the game is played completely differently. Chris Saylee is
a Hall of Famer, and I think Degram it's probably
gonna be, you know, baseball fodder. But I think because
it was so dominant, so Chris and hey, like, let's

(40:15):
not pretend he's dead dead, Like there's a chance it
can end quick for some guys. But you know de
Gram's de Gram's arm isn't as oppressive anymore, would be
him throwing ninety six ninety seven, which pundits have been
asking for anyway, So like de Gram could have more coming,
although I think we're all skeptical if we said that
right now that I think de Gram is the perfect

(40:39):
baseball sports radio fodder that it will be enough to
get him his first year on the ballot. Twenty five
percent that all the old heads will go, you know,
de Gram was probably the best I've ever seen, and
then it goes from twenty five to thirty three, and
then it goes to thirty three to forty one, and
then it's like, you know, if guys hit it to here,
they make the Hall of Fame. And then the de

(40:59):
gram tre just leaving the station. So again, not sure
what that exercise was, but everyone at home's welcome subscribe.

Speaker 2 (41:07):
Well, I I I'm completely following what you're saying, because
I mean, think about, uh, let's say, you know, ten
years from now, uh, Jacob de grams on the ballot,
it's his third year on the ballot or something like that,
what is the starting pitcher position gonna look like. Then
he's gonna look like a workhorse. Eventually by the time
he gets to your ten, you know, and they're like, oh,
he threw like fifteen hundred innings, wow, put them in.

Speaker 1 (41:30):
Yeah almost few two years in there. Yeah. Yeah, that
whole that exercise I tried to do about how many
active players are playing in the Hall of Fame. I
wonder if there'd be like a system that would work
like that, because where baseball is that you you'll never
be able to compare Walter Johnson to any player, and hey,

(41:50):
maybe they're right, maybe we shouldn't be comparing Walter Johnson
to any goddamn player nowadays. Okay, but you need to
look in twenty year windows because none of this is
gonna make sense.

Speaker 2 (42:03):
Yes, yes, absolutely, none of this will make sense because
we're gonna have all these guys retiring with like two
hundred and fifty two hundred wins and like three thousand strikeouts,
and then the next generation of pitchers are gonna be
guys who pitched like two thirds as much as they
did at best.

Speaker 1 (42:18):
You know, like when you and Jolly adopt a child together,
they're gonna do a video that's like the best pitcher
whoever pitched, and it'll be about Zach Rinky because they'll
just be like, if you line up the eras and
how little guys started pitching after that, why didn't we
talk about him more? And it'll be like, yeah, no, wait,
they adopted the kid and now he's doing baseball videos.

(42:40):
It would be very I don't know, netflick, you.

Speaker 2 (42:43):
Know, you know, in like ancient Roman times, that's how
they would do it, Like they would the emperor would
adopt his successor he would become the sun. And then
that's how they kept it going in a good way.
And then usually when they messed up is when they
would let the biological son be the emperor instead, and
then that's how you get you know, someone has no
idea what they're doing.

Speaker 1 (43:02):
Wow, little history lesson today, everyone. I guess a lot
of history. We were doing mostly baseball, mostly past stuff.

Speaker 3 (43:10):
Yeah, was starting a reeb assignment shortly.

Speaker 1 (43:13):
I love that. Let's go four if he just dupes
us and he goes Jamie Moyer and pitches till he's
forty eight and just keeps getting out on eighty one
mile per hour sinkers. He won yar deals.

Speaker 2 (43:27):
He could do it, he could all one yar deals. Yes,
still with the Dodgers, all one year deals with the Dodgers.

Speaker 1 (43:34):
They just never no one. They can't commit to each other.
I'll read off some of the head turning names on here,
and I'll let you cook, and then I am excited
because your hitter categories are silly, my elbow herds, Strider
and McClanahan like, yeah, let me know. Let's check in
in six years and we'll say they're either obvious Hall

(43:55):
of famers or they're gonna be one of your guys
adopted kids videos. Yamamoto is funny because like, okay, he
basically the same category there and man the one that
frustrated me and I uh and then you have a
bunch of kids below that, which if you want to
talk about you can, uh, dude, you Darvish man, I

(44:15):
feel like he got a raw deal without getting the
cy young that. As far as baseball pitching careers go,
I think you Darvish has had a Hall of Fame
pitching career, but it's like one note short. But I
think that note would have happened if he didn't spend
another career overseas.

Speaker 2 (44:37):
Yeah, I mean he has he has the mark you're
looking for. He has two hundred wins between MPB and
Japan or sign MPP in Japan, MPB and MLB now,
and he has you know, three thousand strikeouts, So I
mean those would be the marks you look for, like
you know, you can you know it's not as simple
as combining the two. But understand that's a high level

(44:58):
league and he has had very much a Hall of
Fame Baseball career, you know, in.

Speaker 1 (45:04):
That regard and something about his feel to me always
was and I mean again, as we're talking about these
potential funny number, funny money numbers, I think he's he's
at nineteen hundred, one hundred or no, twenty nine hundred
career innings. Pitch that at him at a professional level. Yeah,

(45:26):
that you know, if if we start looking at accumulates
more the fact he'll have thrown three thousand pro innings
but no awards. Saw some time on that deal too,
Hey why not san Diego was handling a sidler man?

Speaker 2 (45:42):
He was.

Speaker 1 (45:42):
He was a dishing and swishing I guess. And any
other of the pitchers that you think there's a conversation
you'd like to have about.

Speaker 2 (45:52):
Yeah, I'll just I'll just name him them off real quick.
I had a tier that's just called Roki Sasaki because
who know, right, maybe it just comes over and does
the thing. The next reliever wave is what I refer
to as like so after the KEMBERL. Jansen Chapman, then
it's just like Edwin Diaz and Josh Hater and then
it's like nobody. So that's what I said with regards

(46:14):
to like who's getting a four hundred saves haters definitely not.
He's been used in not traditional closer roles, so that's
one of those ways that they might have to reassess
relievers as well. If he goes if he's almost like
a stopper, like an old school stopper. And yeah, and
then I've got some like good young guys, yamamotives in there,
and I was like, yeah, Logan Webb and George Kirby,

(46:35):
they're off to a decent start. But still, I mean,
it's still so early to say anything. And then we'll
stop the picture discussion there.

Speaker 1 (46:42):
Yeah, I mean pictures just injury conversations that we've had
on here and anything. Edwin Diaz Man, that guy's been
racking up saves for a long time. Huh to fourteen
he's at age thirty that it feels like he's in
line to finish with those other guys. His career has
kind of felt equalish to those other guys that I

(47:04):
I would I would be in on him, and man,
we're we're a little too close to the situation here.
But Max Freed is one of those guys. Every time
I open up his page, it's like, wait, he's been
Hall of Fame level good for a young pitcher.

Speaker 2 (47:20):
He will you know, he had he doesn't necessarily have
the volume in I guess the whole discussion has been
about the volume, right, but like purely from an inning
by inning like run prevention basis, no one's really been
better than him in the twenty twenties, like straight up,
like you know, like you look at his era plus
or whatever, like it's pretty crazy. Just guy doesn't allow runs.

Speaker 1 (47:38):
You know, that's kind of a that's kind of a deal.
You know, there's some other fun ones on there. People
might be mad if Nola Wheeler Burns don't get mentioned.
You some percentage points on them. Yeah, but yeah, it
just kind of becomes that age thirty thing. Like if
you guys keep this up absolutely, if if Father Time wins,

(47:59):
you lose.

Speaker 2 (48:00):
I do want to shout out I mean Wheeler Burns,
that's kinds of I do want to shout Nola because
he is the guy who has the chance to reach
closer to those traditional counting stats, and he is really
the only guy after Cole who would have at least
a snowballs chance at three thousand strikeouts or two hundred
wins or you know, some of those more typical metrics
we see that. You know that there was like when

(48:22):
like when Sabathia reached a certain threshold, right, that's when
people knew, you know, I guess for him it was
like two fifty and three thousand strikeouts. But even then
the times have changed. But that that is the guy,
Aaron Nola, That is the guy who has a chance
to really have that true workhorse career.

Speaker 1 (48:38):
Let's jump back over to the hitters. And you know
you've got some low percentage points on here, and I
love it. Oh had something going, but lost team. I
don't even there's it's just a sad grouping right now.
I'll tell you what I'll do. I think this is
really fun and I have a name to add to

(48:59):
your list, Bailey, because under the category of it would
be funny if he hit five hundred homers, you have
put Kyle Schwarber.

Speaker 2 (49:12):
Indeed, and it would be funny.

Speaker 1 (49:14):
If he hits five hundred homers, because that's a convo.
And excuse me if I miss this on your list,
but I'll put him in the same category. Juncarlo Stanton,
who was resurgent this year, is in the fours homer wise,
he's gonna have an interesting case because he's got a
lot of boxes he can check. He's got the MVP

(49:36):
that if he gets to five HUNDI, uh, I think
it's gonna be tough to keep them out. So I'll
put both of those on your tray.

Speaker 2 (49:44):
Yeah, no, that's true. I left off Stanton. I didn't
intentionally do it, but yeah, I don't know exactly where
I would put him on that. But you're right, like
it's it's foreseeable that he would. I mean, first of all,
like Stan's not even quite doing like a like an
Adam Dunn funny, Like I mean, I'm done finish, I
think with four sixty two, but like he's not even
quite doing the Adam Douneward's, Like, yeah, this guy has

(50:05):
other value, Like he played like decent defense. He won
an MVP. So like, yeah, he's at forty four war
right now, you know, which isn't terrible, Like there are
there are Hall of famers with forty four war, not
particularly good ones, but they're there. And then so and
then yeah, he could reach five hundred home runs. What's
what's he got left on the contract, Because that's what

(50:25):
I want to know. How many more years. Does he
have three and a half.

Speaker 3 (50:29):
I want to say at least at least three full
after this, I'm pulling it up.

Speaker 2 (50:35):
Man, he's got Yep, you're right, three full and then
a club option in twenty twenty eight prediction they're not
going to take it. Uh and then and then he
would be a free agent after that. Uh yeah, gosh.
I mean I will say, like, I think the steroid
era kind of unintentionally shattered the if you get five

(50:56):
hundred home runs, you're definitely in thing, you know, like like, yeah,
they would have still put like Maguire or Paul Marrow
or Bonds in if they had no pdconnection, but they,
you know, they did have it. But I think unintentionally
that sort of devalued the idea of a five hundred
home run hitter.

Speaker 1 (51:15):
It's either that or they'll use it as like a
final redemption shot at the like, you know, at the
guys who did did cheat. If they're like, hey, this
guy hit five hundred clean, that means you're in the hall,
and that's almost their like their last wag of the
finger at those other guys.

Speaker 2 (51:33):
But I actually that's a great theory.

Speaker 1 (51:36):
I don't know, I could see it going either way,
but I don't know my way sounds very baseball ritery.

Speaker 2 (51:42):
No, but that's exactly what we need in this exercise.
We need to, like you need to get into the
mind of the average BBWA member like you, you, Jake,
you must now become fifty nine years old and the
fan of Bruce Springsteen.

Speaker 1 (51:53):
I've been beat up a little bit. I've seen too
much on the road. I thought Miguel Andrew harr was
a future number retired. I've seen it all and it
hurt me that that's the mindset I can get in there.
And that's where Kyle Schwerber thirteen point seven career war I.

Speaker 2 (52:11):
Don't right, I don't know how I'm done. Yeah, I
don't know.

Speaker 1 (52:15):
Uh, and he's still I mean, he's two hundred and
sixty three career home runs, which is great, but he's
he's thirty one. Hey, I hope he has an Abanya's
late thirties run that that he makes it a conversation.
But that's uh, can't do that. Can't do that. Let's see. Oh,

(52:36):
I think this is a great baseball conversation, Bailey, because uh,
something that this office gets hot to trot about every
I'd say, I'd say once a month, is that Jure
Pisada should have been considered or at least got some
real ballot run at the catcher position.

Speaker 2 (52:54):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (52:55):
And you have a group of catchers that you listed
at ten percent, and it's if we reassess position. So
I'll let you tell tell me about them.

Speaker 2 (53:04):
Uh. Those catches are J. T. Real Mudo who have
probably been more on a traditional, like decent Hall of
Fame pace, But he seems to have slowed down just
in recent recent like last year and a half. Salve's
a fun one. There are absolutely five percent at least
of Hall of Fame voters who will like pound their
fists on the table like he's gonna he's gonna make
a run on that ballot all ten years. I have

(53:25):
no doubt about that.

Speaker 1 (53:26):
He's sal there, like there's yeah, there's a weird Salvi
like just borderline because the Royals won one and he's larger.

Speaker 2 (53:34):
Than yes, I And I know, like I know, like
analytical baseball people who are like I throw it all
out the door. I want Salve in as well. You
know those are people, yes, there, I I know people
and they have will Smith and William Contrerez. They're younger,
They've got a ways to go, but they are They're
in a position that real Mudo was at, you know,

(53:56):
five or six years ago anyways, So so why not
include them on that as well? But yeah, Salve is
probably the closest. I don't think I could ring myself
to do it if I were a baseball writer, just
because I care too much about framing. But if you
only cared about the catcher arm and you only cared
about the counting stats, like, yeah, he's got those for sure.

Speaker 1 (54:17):
Yeah, who's who's like the most recent catcher that's gotten in.
Let's see, I mean Pudge. I guess, yeah, I guess borderline.

Speaker 2 (54:27):
Simmons Veterans Committee. But I guess that's not really what
you're looking for, don't Uh was Maur a discussion Oh yeah,
Maurd would be? I guess, yeah?

Speaker 1 (54:38):
Was Maard, Like I'm trying to remember, was Maur borderline
or he was like he's gonna get in, but he's
not a first ballot guy. In my head, that's yea.

Speaker 2 (54:49):
In my mind, he transformed from a discussion guy to
a first ballot guy somewhere in the five years where
he was retired. But before he hit the ballot, you know, everyone.

Speaker 1 (54:58):
An awesome gush and yeah, and then it was him.

Speaker 2 (55:04):
I thought it was well. And he's also different from
these guys because like Maer only played like half his
career at Ketcher, whereas like with Salve, it's gonna be
like like if YACHTI Molina, well, Yady Millina is definitely
gonna get in. But like, you know, what's the difference
between Salvi and YACHTI Molina? And I would say about, like,
you know, two hundred runs of framing. Uh, but uh,
you know, but otherwise that, yeah, I.

Speaker 1 (55:26):
Get it, two hundred runs of framing. That's what I
thought about. Andrew harr Yeah, Yachti's in at forty two
point two career war buster, Posey's going to be a
great thought exercise for the voters in a couple of years.

Speaker 2 (55:41):
Oh, I don't think so. I think they're just gonna
put him in.

Speaker 1 (55:43):
You think it's just done.

Speaker 2 (55:44):
No, I think he's in. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (55:46):
Well that's again. I guess it just gets tricky for
me because I've got here's Yankee, here comes Yankee Jake again.

Speaker 2 (55:53):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (55:53):
Thurman Munson forty six point one war right died in
a plane accident like that. Yeah, I don't I don't know.
Oh feels like the pace was there. Well he should
be in. I mean, I mention, I Meagina Pisados at
forty two point seven, which is above YACHTI And again
you can go pitch framing on me. But I also

(56:13):
saw a switch hitting catcher be like one of the
engines to one of the best teams we've ever played.
That it becomes more of a Hall of Fame conversation,
like what are we highlighting? And Yankee fans just I
don't know. If you're a real baseball nerd, you're like,
he was only on the ballot one year, So I
don't know. The catcher position gets interesting because I mean,

(56:34):
right now, sales sales war is behind Victor Martinez, who's
listed as a catcher Lance Parrish. I don't know.

Speaker 2 (56:45):
Yeah, that's a tough one. Let me ask you this.
Just just give me the answer right now. You're a
Yankees fan. You can put either months in or Pisada in,
but you can't put both. Who you putting in?

Speaker 1 (56:57):
Man, I my brain jumps to months.

Speaker 2 (57:02):
I think that's the right answer.

Speaker 1 (57:03):
You know, I've only seen a couple of highlights and
he was sick as an MVP had an MVP like
you know, like I said, Pisada is an awesome cog
in the engine. I don't know. I get tripped up
on him and Bernie Man, like Bernie's my favorite player ever.
And I what I can do with the offensive stats

(57:24):
with Bernie and center fielders during his peak like eight years,
not a lot of dudes can match. He gets hurt
on defensive war, which like my heart can't analyze defensive
war from past years, like I almost just needed on
a scale of one to ten. And I always thought
Bernie was like a six or a seven, like his
arm was nothing, but he could run well and get

(57:46):
balls that I don't know like where he's getting hurt
in defensive war. And I know gold gloves used to
be just given out by like which players you knew,
but I don't know. Obviously struck a chord there, Bay, Yeah,
I did strike a chord there.

Speaker 2 (58:03):
Well. Bernie and Pasad are basically the same player, like
they're on the same teams. They're two of the best
in terms of like the counting stats and the raid
stats that their respective positions, and they're seemingly deemed for
their defense. I would rather personally put Bernie in of
the two just because I I'm with you more, just
like just a from memories of when they played, like

(58:24):
Bernie was probably a more competent center field defender than
Pasada was as a catcher. I mean for me personally,
I get okay, my beat rider brain is kicking in
again when when we're doing this in twenty five years,
like Bernie hit third, Yeah, like like Bernie broke up
he and that was back in the day. It was
still clean up hitters, your slugger, your third hitters, actually

(58:46):
your best hitter, the switch hitting center fielder on the
Dynasty team that one batting titles like racked up offensive
numbers between Jeter and whatever left handed power hitters they had.

Speaker 1 (59:00):
Like I don't know, I early Twitter, Jake used to
get into some deep wormholes on that. Speaking of wormholes, Bailey,
why don't hop around on your your final hitters list,
because boy from young I believe in them's to like
Austin Riley and Vlattie. You could sell me on those
really easily. Two I don't know, is Pete Alonzo gonna

(59:25):
be a dumb five hundred homer guy in a couple
of years. I don't know. Uh so who the rest
of your list? Where? What do you what do you see?

Speaker 2 (59:33):
Yeah? I I well, I have a few guys that
are just young but so far, so good, Like it
was that rookie class we had a couple years ago,
like Wit Henderson, Julio Adley, Like it's it's early, but
they're on pace. It's just that a lot of people
are on pace at their ages that you know it.
Like we said before, it depends what are they going
to do in their thirties. We know they're good in
their twenties, what are they gonna do in their thirties? McCutcheon,

(59:55):
I think is worth having a little bit of a
discussion on. You know, he counting stats wise, he hits
some of the marks that you'd want to see. I
think he's probably a Veterans Committee guy. That's the way
I see it. I think he would probably if he's
going to get in, it would probably be via the
Veterans Committee. And I wouldn't have a problem with it personally.
I think he's had a great career. Yeah, and then

(01:00:18):
we'll move on to like sort of the lower tiers
of players. I have a few guys on here. These
guys have been on decent pace in their careers, but
I'm not so confident it ages well. And that's sort
of the Trey Turner, that's Alex Bregman, that Sander Bogart's
like those guys. I think if you put up their
numbers through age thirty, like, yeah, they'll probably match up
with some Hall of famers, some Hall of fame infielders

(01:00:39):
with regards to some of the numbers they put up.
I'm just not sure how well it ages. Turner's been
great this year, Bregman and Bogarts maybe a little below
their usual career standards, which makes you think maybe they
don't have that much more on field value to offer
for the rest of their careers. We'll see. Yeah, people
would probably have a discussion there about Turner. It'd be interesting,

(01:00:59):
like what if you just keeps stealing bases this sort
of the thing, Like if he could just rack up
some numbers there, that would be you know, key if
he keeps doing that in his thirties and then yeah,
I've got the young but I believe in them. Tier
and these are the guys. This is Austin Riley who
to be honest with you, like has gone tit for
tat with Devers at least over the last like four
or so seasons. It's just that Dever's got a slightly

(01:01:20):
earlier start, and that early start matters a lot in
terms of getting to the Hall of Fame. Like if
you can get in the season there at like age
twenty or age twenty one, like that makes a big difference.
And that's that's why Vladimir Gerra Junior is also in
this young but I believe in them tier and then
we'll round out that tier with jord On Alpharez because man,
like I just think he's so good. I really do.

(01:01:41):
Like he's he has the knees of a forty year old,
but like he could just hit and like you can,
you can absolutely hit your way into the Hall of Fame.
You're on Alpharez style.

Speaker 1 (01:01:56):
Vladimir Guerrera Junior has been an interesting one for me
lately because with this with is turned around, stretch his
stats for his age and if you believe there's trajectory
on it, like yeah, he's he'll be there. Similar batters
through age twenty four starts with Eddie Murray, Sure Hall
of Famer, Hall of Famer, Book Powell, Tony Canigliero, Freddie Freeman,

(01:02:20):
Jose Conseco, Justin Upton, Wan Gonzalez, Ruben Sierra, Gencarlo Stanton.
So I don't know it. It's obviously it's so much
about accumulating good years that that's what dictates him. And
it's just so hilarious that Austin Riley. Austin Riley is

(01:02:43):
probably my one one if this was a draft of
guys who are a Hall of Famer, but we kind
of don't care right now.

Speaker 2 (01:02:51):
That is a great pick, absolutely, yeah, because let me
look at what he's doing.

Speaker 1 (01:02:55):
Yeah, it's not shots fired, Like I like Austin Rylee.
I got to watch some Brave Snake the other day
and he had that clean pick and he might've Goten
Yard in that game. And you're just every time you
look at the stats, it's like, wait, this is this
is a Hall of Famer and it's I don't know.
You could talk third basement all day and it feels
like Austin Riley's just an afterthought, although he was number

(01:03:18):
one on our tier list by the end, I believe.

Speaker 2 (01:03:21):
Yeah, you know who I don't have in this tier
but probably should be here as Kyle Tucker, you know,
and and he's got he's hopefully got a lot to play.
But he's that guy's great too.

Speaker 1 (01:03:32):
Racking up numbers. Yeah, always my favorite game. What what
contract is he gonna get? Because if he hits free agency, right,
it's over two hundred million, it might be over three
hundred million when it happens. Well, caught your eye over
there beabs, I see, I see a lurkin.

Speaker 3 (01:03:48):
I mean, different tone than than these guys. Have we
said the name jose al Tuve. Oh yeah, oh we
missed him.

Speaker 2 (01:03:57):
He's he's for me. He's a Hall of Famer. If
they retire today.

Speaker 1 (01:04:01):
Yeah, I think he's.

Speaker 2 (01:04:02):
Well, he's either he's either they retire to date or
just putting on the finishing touches tier for me.

Speaker 1 (01:04:08):
Oh god, all the riders going through those allegations again.

Speaker 2 (01:04:13):
Well but here's the thing though, Like they're well sorted
out with Beltron, so it won't even matter when al
Twovey gets there.

Speaker 1 (01:04:19):
Will they sort it out with Beltron?

Speaker 2 (01:04:21):
Yeah, they'll they'll they'll let Beltron and eventually they'll let
him suffer. But like he'll get in eventually.

Speaker 1 (01:04:27):
You know, there's it was a yes, Network exclusive. But
there was an inning of Baseball where me, Jimmy and
Carlos Beltron sat on a couch together on the Yes app.
And people don't talk about that enough.

Speaker 2 (01:04:40):
Yeah, you're what did you give him the idea?

Speaker 1 (01:04:43):
I don't. There was a lot of moving parts. I
get distracted by his mole. It's no offense to Carlos Beltron,
but it's it's a real one. It's like, you know,
Austin Powers made a movie scene over it.

Speaker 2 (01:04:55):
Did you get to meet his niece?

Speaker 1 (01:04:57):
I did not. That's uh, you know, that's just our
numb one source at the company. That's the company source Bailey.
I feel I feel half rude because there's so many
names that we could talk about that. I felt like
I was doing a lot of half rushing while trying
not to rush. Man Jordan and Kyle Tucker is some
mental work because if you've ever played the Astros over

(01:05:19):
the last five years, you're like, WHOA, You're done, and
you're like, oh, Kyle Tucker's he's great, but Jor done right,
And that's just I mean, that's kind of intimidation. Slash
World Series Game winner, I want okay, I've decided I'm
gonna read this sad list real quick, and just a reminder,
as we mentioned, all these guys that had Hall of

(01:05:40):
Fame looks to them and a lot of them are
going to have thirties that the body might give out
or whatever happens. Had something going but lost Steve, Steve,
Anthony Rendon, George Springer, Byron Buckston, Matt Chapman. I'm gonna
put a little asterisk there because he's he's turned it
around little bit. Although I guess if you go back

(01:06:02):
to his first two years, like those were closer to
you know, like Bobby witt Range, and now we don't
think of them as the same class of player.

Speaker 2 (01:06:12):
Yeah, like he was about to have like the career
that Aronado's had, you know. Yeah, though those first like
two and a half years.

Speaker 1 (01:06:19):
Yeah, Ozzie Albi's on this list. Yeah, Bailey, thank you
so much. I said it was gonna be my last apology.
It's this is a little info to any of the
Waken Jake listeners. If you're a half pathetic person like me,
which some of you are, you gotta control the stuff

(01:06:42):
you can control, and you gotta be punctual. So I'm
sorry for being late. I screwed that up. It's funny
Peter Moylan. I think when we first met, like me
and Peter Moylan just let it all hang out. And
I mean we you know, we ended up some some
dark corners and he was just like, like, I said

(01:07:03):
something about make sure you're on time, and he gave
me like a death look. He's like, I'm a lot
of fucking things, but if I tell you I'm gonna
be there, I'm gonna be there. And I was like, whoa, Like,
are you about to beat me up? And that just
shows you know, if you're if you're silly, if you're
whatever you are in life, just show up on time
and the rest kind of figures itself out. So Wow,

(01:07:24):
easy way to keep people happy with you, Babe d
Big on Time Guy, Big on Time, Big on Time
Guy Bailey. New video tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (01:07:35):
Oh oh, I wish I could say that at some
point this at some point this month, there will be
a video and uh, I think we'll all learn something new,
that's all I'm gonna say. I'll learn something new. I'm
in the process of learning something new while working on
this video.

Speaker 1 (01:07:49):
Wow. If it's new to him, it's new to you.
Go subscribe foolish baseball. Foolish Bailey. Uh, and we'll be
catching up with you soon. We wanna do some deadline stuff,
maybe even a before and after, and you've got a
couple other things in the pipeline, So thank you, Bailey. Lincoln.

Speaker 3 (01:08:09):
Jick is the production of Dan Patrick Productions, John Blue Media,
and Workhouse Media.