December 18, 2025 • 52 mins
The Favorites is back for another look at NFL Week 16! Action Network experts Kendra Middleton, Stuckey and Brandon Kravitz look at player props, totals and sides while discussing where they see value in the betting market. How long can Denver's luck continue and what will happen against our Jags this week? How many teams could tie at the top of the AFC? Who might steal that 1-Seed and who have the crew stolen from in their past? Plus, some Action or Distraction, an enticing MNF matchup early and another 2 Kings and a Queen Parlay. All that and more right here on The Favorites!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The Crown
is yours. Happy Thursday. NFL Week sixteen has arrived. I'm
Brandon Kravitz, joined by an insightful and delightful duo, the
(00:22):
Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky is back on the podcast,
and the Queen herself, Miss Kendrim Middleton. On today's episode,
we will submit our official plays of the week. We've
got our stat of the day courtesy of Evan Abrams.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
We'll kick that to you in just a moment.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Two Kings and a Queen parlay courtesy of Draft Kings,
and we have planted our flags already the Browns plus ten,
the Seahawks tonight, and Matt Moore, who slid in for
Stucky on Tuesday's episode, was on the Broncos minus three,
went apo on our Jacksonville Jaguars. But before we to
(01:00):
anything of football substance, Stucky, how is the little burrito
doing at home?
Speaker 3 (01:07):
He's doing well, He's cute. Uh, it's hanging in there.
They I they said to like, I don't do much.
It's like, I mean, he sleeps in the needs and
my wife has to do all the work, right, now,
and I don't really sleep during football season, so that's
not a big adjustment. So yeah, they say that this morning.
(01:27):
He watched some bowl games with me last night, had
him on the couch locked up. They say to read
to them just like they're not going to register anything,
but like for your voice. And so I was reading
the book. I a recent book I got on the
history of the Venezuela. So he was learning about the
(01:49):
history of Venezuela this morning. So, uh, yeah, he was.
I was reading to him about Boulevar and uh, you.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Didn't want to roll with it's a good spider all
of the classics.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
No, I mean we have we have all those, but
I'll read them to him when like he can actually, ah,
like registering, it's more about like your voice, and so
I might as well read something that I want to read.
So maybe he'll end up getting into history. But yeah,
it's it's uh, it's not much different for me right now,
(02:25):
but it will be right now. They're they're pretty easy.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
Was it like a holy ship moment when you held them?
Speaker 3 (02:35):
Yeah, it was funny. He was born at one one
oh one Eastern on Sunday, And I guess you wanted
to catch the NFL slate and then they brought me
up to the.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Nurse right when the octobox gets shown on Red Zone too.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
Yeah, it was an emergency c section, so they brought
me up to the nursery after and then they had
to like still operate on my wife for a while. Well,
but they because it was a C section, they have
to like help them to breathe and clean them off.
So like I was just standing there while a bunch
of uh nurses and doctors were tending to them for
like an hour. So I was just sitting in the
(03:14):
nursery just but I wore like a winter I had
to scrolls. It had a winter hat on and and
then I had like headphones underneath and I just had
Red Zone playing in my pocket. So while I was
in the so yeah, I and then I was able
(03:40):
to go back. We went back to recovery room, and
then I was able to watch the Bills make a
crazy comeback, which was nice. So yeah, it was it
was a pretty crazy when we were in the hospital yesterday,
so that was kind of So that was from we
got went there at Saturday night and then he wasn't
(04:03):
born until Sunday at one, and then we got home
Wednesday afternoon, so we were there for it kind of
felt like a camp, like we were at camp. But
I was sleeping on like a cot whenever I did sleep.
That wasn't great. But yeah, it's big lu change, but
I'm excited. It'll get harder once he's able to move
(04:24):
around and stuff.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
But around and recavoc.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Yeah, that's that's gonna be the where everything changes. But
for now, status quo. We're on to week sixteen. A
lot of this this week. I'm actually really excited for
this week because you look at this week's hard, it's
you know, you have a lot of bad there's a
lot of bad quarterbacks the NFL regardless. But there's like
(04:48):
I think seven or eight rookies starting, like you have
Quinn yours now Brady Cook, So there's there's some I
think there's like seven ary rookies that are siding to do.
But this is like when the games matter for playoffs,
and we have ram Seahawks tonight, Packers, Bears Saturday Night,
(05:10):
Ravens Pats Monday Night. We get forty four year old
Philip Rivers on Monday Night against the forty nine ers.
But yeah, there's a lot of good games. Jags, Broncos
are Jags. There's some good games on the slate that
I'm looking forward to, but there's also some just like, Wow,
this is the state of our quarterback play right now. But
(05:32):
I'm excited for it, and I'm excited for the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Either a great thing or a scary thing. There are
a lot of games I like, and from a betting
perspective on this week's card, let's talk about one of
the ones you just mentioned. The Jags and the Broncos,
a matchup of ten and a twelve win team that
will not be seen by anybody but local markets. By
the way, no national broadcast keep doubting our Jaguars. Bnick's
(05:57):
coming off the best performance of the season him four touchdowns,
no interceptions, through for three to Zho two, took zero sacks.
The Jags, meanwhile, twenty five plus and seven straight games.
They're the only team in the NFL to be able
to be able to say that, and this trend screams Jacksonville.
This is our Evan Abrams stat of the day. Since
(06:17):
nineteen ninety, teams on an eleven plus game win streak
have been inflated and have struggled to cover fourteen and
thirty six and two against the spread. That's twenty eight percent.
To me, it's Jags or pass. I have not bet
the game yet. Broncos favored by three. I have Jacksonville
rated slightly higher, and I think part of that is
(06:39):
their strength of schedule denverse twenty eighth.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
The Jags are twelfth.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
And on top of that, Nick Giffin has the Broncos
number one in the luck rankings, Jags top ten. They're
number nine, but a percentage diff of nineteen percent. To me,
it's Jacksonville or nothing stuck yet? Do you read this one?
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Yeah, I'll be on the Jags. Wait and see if
I can get a three and a half, even if
I have to play like one, fifteen, one twenty for it.
I don't think that I have this under a field goal.
And you might say Nicks played his best game of
the season last week. I mean it was another lucky
Broncos when he had four turnover worthy plays. The Packers
dropped hens Uh dropped like three picks in that game. Additionally,
(07:20):
they lost Evan Williams, Michael Parsons, Christian Watson their right tack.
I mean they lost six starters during the game to injury.
So yeah, this Broncos team is just keeps getting away
with it every week. Not a believer. I think their
defense is good, but it's not like the Texans. I
think their defense is even a bit overrated. So yeah,
(07:43):
I'll be on the Jags. I mean the Jags defense
since Week eight, fourth and EPA per play, they've been
a top five run defense all season. That's important against Denver.
They're gonna play a lot of zone. Nicks is gonna
put the ball in Harm's way. Jags have been very
opportunistic on defense. And then I think the story of
the Jags this season, and one of the reasons why
I was in buying into them before the season was
(08:05):
Liam Cohen. Wherever he goes, the offense improves. Was expecting
the offense to improve as the season went on. It's
been even better than I thought. I mean since they
acquired Jacoby Myers, third in dropback success rate, sixth in
dropback EPA. Jacoby Myers has been amazing for them. They've
also gotten Brenton Strange back. The run game's been cooking
(08:27):
all season. So yeah, I uh, I'll be on. It'll
probably be another close Broncos game. I would love to
get a three and a half with the Jags.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Josh Heinz Allen popped up on the injury report. He's
dealing with an illness. He didn't practice on Wednesday. Wednesday's
a pretty standard day for stars not to practice. Old
and freak out about that. We'll just keep an eye
on that. Kendra, you are a resident Jags fan. We
have just simply hopped on the bandwagon. Do you have
confidence in your team going up against a Broncos team
that is undefeated at home this year?
Speaker 4 (08:59):
I'm on the Jags. We are a Jags podcast. I've
already put it in the app. I'm a little concerned
that Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland are both on the
injury report on that left side. That doesn't make me
feel great against a Broncos defense this. I would like
to add that I think the Jags are averageating in
the last six games like thirty three or thirty four
points a game, which is also just insane of as
(09:21):
a Jags fan who grew up hating this team but
also loving this team. That's an insane stat to say
out loud. The thing for me here isn't so much
that I'm super high on this Jags team, which you
guys know, I've had my ups and downs. I've been
in and out. Basil Tuton being on the injury report
as doubtful also doesn't really scare me that much, just because,
like wwent, Allen has been incredible on special teams and
I think that he can make up for the position
(09:42):
on that in the run game that Basil Tuton has
for the Jags, it's more so a fad of the
Broncos here for me, it is impossible to go on
such a wind streak like they have and not stumble
at some point, especially because like Stucky said, they will
absolutely Bonick will put the ball in Harm's way and
this Jags team will will, will will take advantage of
(10:05):
those opportunities. MAYA Spider Lloyd named after Devin Lloyd just
decided to molt on Sunday. So I'm thinking even Devin
Lloyd pick in this game. I think that that's what
that means.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
The Jags catching fifty eight percent of the bets right
now and.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
Dag one seed. Still they win this game.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Still alive, that's true.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
Still very much alive. That have the time breaker.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
Do you have the odds.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
Are there odds on that that are available, I would
think they're pretty good.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
They have to win this week. I mean, if they
lose this week, it's done. But if they have to
win this week and then they have what the the
Colts and the Titans.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
Left, Broncos are a game and a half up, and then.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
They need the the Broncos to lose two the Chargers,
Pats to lose this week to the.
Speaker 4 (10:57):
Ravens and have Chiefs on Christmas.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
Yeah, but I mean, what is the Chiefs. The most
likely loss for the Broncos is going to be the
Chargers at home in the finale.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
I don't know. I kind of I get that the
Chiefs suck. They have nothing to play for and we're
getting Gardner Minshew, but still divisional something to get up
for for some of those guys.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
I don't know it is, but I don't even know
who's gonna play Like the Chiefs are they just gonna
sit guys because there's nothing to play. They have so
many injuries that that's that's my main concern. Then obviously
the drop off from Mahomes to Minshew. But yeah, if
the Jags win, So if the Jags win this week
(11:44):
against Denver. We'll say the Ravens beat the Pats, and
then next week the Pats are probably gonna win out.
After that they play the Jets and the Dolphins. But
if the Broncos, let's see, the Jags have the tiebreaker,
(12:10):
So if the Jags went out, this would be one
more second. This is riveting, riveting podcasting.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
We did get a number I'll buy I'll buy you
some time here stock the Jags seven to one to
be the number one seed in the AFC. I don't
know how that math's out with all of these different
machinations that we need, but I don't like that.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Yeah, that's all that would have to happen. So that's
what would have to happen. Jags, we get the one seed,
be a three way tie for at thirteen and four
with the Jags, Broncos, and Pats all at thirteen and four,
and if that were to happen, so what we needs
to happen. They got to win out, including win over Denver.
Denver loses to the Chargers in the finale, Pats lose
(12:59):
to the Ravens, and even if the Pats went out
after that, the Jags would have the tiebreaker all at
thirteen and four and get the number one overall seed.
The Bills could also finish thirteen and four, so there
(13:21):
could be a a four way tie at the top,
but the Pats would win the division and the Jags
would get the one seed.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Anything to avoid going to Houston for the playoffs. In on,
I will chase it. I want the Chargers at home.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Every wants those Texans. Nobody wants them.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
By the way, if you want to a much more
simple version where you don't have to wait until things
play out in week seventeen and beyond. Jags money line
Ravens money line for week sixteen is plus two eighty one,
so not exactly the seven to one, but if you
just thought that maybe things were going to tilt in
that direction, that could be a way to look.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
Now another could we could also have five teams that
finish thirteen and four in the AFC. So if the
Chargers went out and in that case and then said
Denver loses to the Jags and they lose to the Chargers,
the Chargers would have the two seed and win the division.
The Pats would have the three seed and win the division.
(14:23):
The thirteen or four Broncos would have the six seed,
the thirteen and four Bills would have the five seed,
and the thirteen or four Jags would have the one seed.
Pretty wild.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
Do you have any You just had a child, so
perhaps you know you're not ready for this, But do
you have anything random, weird, bizarre for us this week?
Speaker 2 (14:42):
Hey, this is a dumb question.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
Let me ask you a personal question kind.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Of question is that is questions.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
What if anything, is the weirdest thing that you have
stolen in your life that you regret? So I think
I can't remember the only thing I can remember that
I've ever stolen. I mean, I'm sure I stole something
when I was like a kid, right like you grabbed
(15:11):
like a candy bar. I don't know, But like, the
only thing I remember stealing is and I actually still
I actually felt bad about it. The next day was
I was It was I was in Hoboken, New Jersey,
visiting a friend and we were out all night and
it was like three in the morning and we were
(15:31):
walking back to his place after the bars, and then
there was this huge bread It was like four in
the morning. There was this huge bread truck that was
delivering bread to like a store and I hopped in
and I just grabbed this big crate of rolls. Why
(15:54):
would I steal roll So my friend had like rolls
for like a year frozen in his freezer. But I
felt bad for the bread guy the next day because
I don't know who would have to to cover that,
But I did. I have stolen rolls in my life
and then didn't use any of them. I left the
next day. So that's the only thing I think of it.
And it's a poot two part question. When you were
(16:16):
a kid, what was your if there was like an
ice cream truck or if you didn't have an ice
cream truck. Did you guys have an ice cream truck
that will come around?
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Oh? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (16:27):
What was your order? Mine for mine for that was
I saw an ice cream truck other day and for
some reason, I didn't seen one in forever. I would
always you. I would always get the uh that Mickey
Mouse bar, that's so hot. I love that, And then
(16:48):
I'd always get candy cigs and try to act cool
like with the fake cigarettes.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
I can that.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
So no ice cream trucks, I don't know. Maybe some
people didn't didn't have an ice cream truck that comes around.
We don't have an ice creamruf that comes in my
neighbor so uh yeah. So Kendra, have you ever stolen anything?
Speaker 4 (17:09):
And one of them I can't talk about on the air,
but I will tell you guys off the air because
it is so illegal. It's actually an issue, and I
was so young and I did not realize anything at
the time. The only other thing that I've stolen is
I accidentally walked out of the grocery store with a
thing at toilet paper under my cart once and that
still haunts me to this day that I feel bad about.
(17:30):
My ice cream truck order was I think it's called
a screwball. It's like the like slush and then it
had the gumball at the bottom. Oh yeah, yeah, I
like that one.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
My ice cream order was always the WWF ice cream bar,
so you know, and then you would open it and
he could have like the hul Cogan or the Big
boss Man. You know, you never knew who his image
was going to be drawn on the ice cream bar.
But the ice cream itself was really good too. It
was like a gram cracker crust with vanilla on the inside.
(18:01):
And then the second you said the thing that you stole.
I had this instant memory. Thirteen years old, I'm at
Dillard's with my friend Steven. I'm at yeah and uh,
and for some reason, he wanted to start stealing Tommy
Hill figure tags off of the Tommy Hill And they're
(18:22):
just like little cardboard.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
Things that hang on the shirts.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
And so we took a bunch of those, and then
we decided that we were doing so well with this,
we're gonna up our game.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
Do you remember those flotation devices.
Speaker 1 (18:34):
On the Nautica jackets back in the day, So these
I'm putting this picture up, these little things.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
Yeah, so we started taking those.
Speaker 1 (18:43):
At that point, Dillard's had enough and we got sent
to the security office at Dillard's and they told me
that they had my parents come and pick me up.
And I wasn't allowed back at Dillard's until I was
sixteen years old and so and I don't there's no
way they still I was thirteen, fourteen, fifteen years old
(19:05):
that my picture was hanging up at Dillard's in South Florida,
and I will do with them. I just just kept
them just it just became like a game, like we
could get more of them.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
I don't know, it was really stupid. I was thirteen
years old, but.
Speaker 3 (19:23):
Yeah, actually, like a Dillard's, I actually got arrested for
stealing something.
Speaker 4 (19:30):
It was arrested.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
Yeah. So I was sixteen and I was down at
my friend's senior week house.
Speaker 2 (19:36):
And he's smoking candy cigarettes.
Speaker 3 (19:39):
And they were at their senior week house. They were
out of toilet paper, and I went to the to
the boardwalk that this is down to the Jersey Shore.
I went to the boardwalk with my friend and we
(20:02):
took toilet paper out of a bathroom. One of the workers,
I guess, saw us walking out with it and they
waved down a cop, and a cop chased this down
and I got arrested for underage drinking because I was
(20:22):
drunk when he stopped me. And I was sixteen, so
technically that's taking toilet paper. I was just trying to
be nice because they were out of toilet paper at
their house. I was there for a night. I was
like a freshman. They were at their senior week house.
My dad had to come get drive at three in
the morning and come get me two hours away and
(20:43):
drive me back. He was not happy. So, yeah, you.
Speaker 4 (20:47):
Were You were the leader of degenerate nation from a
young age my friend.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
So, yeah, that's a toilet paper rolls. I guess I
have a thing for stealing rolls. I guess that's the
common theme, and I did use any of them.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
These are everyday household items.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
You know, at least you were stealing things of value
and not flotation devices.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Uh, let's get to action or distraction.
Speaker 3 (21:09):
This is a distracted stactic. I'm not stacky.
Speaker 4 (21:12):
I want it on. The action.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
Too was benched by Mike McDaniel insides Quinn yours, and
we saw the line shift a few points in the process.
I'll give my take on this later because it is
one of my nominations. But Kendra, action or distraction on
the line movement, given how bad Tua has.
Speaker 4 (21:34):
Been, I want nothing to do with the Dolphins right
now at all.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Nothing.
Speaker 4 (21:41):
Don't even know. I don't Here's the thing. If Quinn
you weres is starting before Zach Wilson and Tua is
now behind those two, that points to no go nothing.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
I know.
Speaker 4 (21:54):
I will say, I do think that this is gonna
weirdly teach us a lot about the Tua scenario, just
because I don't think we've seen with the Dolphins. Mike
McDaniel run an offense that's not based around to his ability,
and I think that that's going to be like a
huge thing of whether we might see I don't think
that the Dolphins are going to be able to get
rid of his contract at all, just because of how
(22:15):
much money they owe him, his injury history and his capabilities.
I think they're going to be stuck, you know, with
the Kirk Cousins situation. But we're going to learn a
lot about how tailored this offense was to him, and
I think that that's probably going to affect the to
a market in a way.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
If you are a quarterback needy team, would you take
a shot on Tua.
Speaker 4 (22:36):
No, absolutely not, because his injury history is enough for
me to stay away at that price. Absolutely not.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
I would. I mean it depends on yeah, I mean
his price in the market. But I think the two
it can be like a really solid Mariota, like just
the the best backup.
Speaker 4 (23:00):
In the league right for that price.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
Well, obviously that's when you wouldn't pay The Dolphins have
to eat that price.
Speaker 4 (23:07):
The Dolphins have to eat that So whn't at that
point they just cut him because then they can spread
that money out over two seasons. If that's how it's
gonna go.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
Yeah, but I'm saying for a new team, like it's
gonna be like Russell Wilson.
Speaker 1 (23:19):
Like Wilson was let go by Denver. Denver had to
eat the money and then everyone signed a million dollar
contract with Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
Yeah, if they caught him before June first, it's gonna
cost them ninety nine million in dead money, which is insane.
The record is that the Broncos with eighty five million
for Russell Wilson, which is pretty amazing what the Broncos
are doing right now considering how far back that would
have set a lot of teams. I mean, look at
the Browns with Watson. But yeah, I mean I think
too it is probably and that with his injury history,
(23:49):
that's gonna work best for him, would probably work best.
Is just like a backup to a good team.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
That so.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
But as far as the blind movement, yeah, I mean
I agree with that. It it was two, it was
one and a half two two and a half. I
think it was one and a half. It leaked out
to two and a half when there was when when
McDaniel said all options are on the table, and then
it jumped out to four and a half after the announcement,
I think it's settled. He's that up four now or
last I saw. I think that makes sense. You gotta
(24:20):
remember that also, not all line moves are created equal.
This is going through three, so you know, something going
from like a pick to minus two is not as
impactful as something going from you know, one and a
half two out to four through the through three, which
is the biggest key number in football. So yeah, I
think that it's it's warranted. You just don't know, Like
(24:40):
two hasn't been great. The Dolphins have been relying on
their run game. They just haven't been asking to it
to do much, and their run defense has been incredible.
Uh and but their their secondary is still vulnerable, which
is what I would worry about against Burrow. And but
as far as the drop off, you just don't know
what yours is going to look like. This isn't a
high draft pick. He's a rookie, it's his first start,
(25:00):
and I know the Bengals aren't a great defense, but
you have to expect that it's going to be a
couple of points worse than two, even though he hasn't
been great. So yeah, I agree, with the move at
this price, Like Kendra, I have no interest in betting
this game. We think after the Bengals were eliminated, like
(25:22):
where are they at? Mentally, Dolphins were eliminated like just
a game that's I don't want to see any fun.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
We have a squad ride tonight.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
If you look on the Action Network app, I'm on
the Seahawks, Kendra's on the Seahawks. Stuck, He's on the Seahawks.
And we didn't even discuss it as a unit. We'd
all just sort of wound up there. Action or distraction
for this is a great or bed sign for us
and the Birds.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Stucky a great son. We've been good this year, so
we're about to hit our two kings and Queen parlay later.
But yeah, the energy I played. The Seahawks are early
cheap money line, like, I think that they've taken some
money since and I think the line is getting close
to right. But the biggest thing for me is the
(26:11):
loss of Devanta Adams makes the Rams so much easier
to defend. They've been relying on a lot of heavy personnel,
and no team in the NFL is better equipped to
defend heavy personnel than the Seahawks. So what a lot
of teams do by mistake is they match heavy personnel,
so multiple tight ends with either their base defense or
(26:33):
heavy defense, which means a lot more linebackers on the field.
That's a mistake because what do the Rams do out
of that? They throw out of heavy personnel and they
do it extremely well and if you have more linebackers
on the field. The Lions did this last week. They
matched the Rams heavy personnel with base and heavy. Every
single snap they got destroyed, absolutely destroyed the Seahawks they met.
(26:59):
They match heavy personnel with you know, they're with not
not based, not heavy, They're gonna you know, nickel dime you.
They match based on the down and distance, which is
what you should do. And part of that is they
have Nick emn Warre who can play you know, linebacker
if you run, or defensive back, and they have a
lot of versatile guys and McDonald's a very smart defensive coordinator.
(27:23):
They match you know, heavy personnel with bass or heavy
at the lowest rate in elitue. They are tail They
have a tailor made defense to defend the Rams, especially
without DeVonta Adams. And it's one of the reasons in
the first meeting, Stafford had his worst game of the
season by far. Think about this. Donald threw four picks
on the road. The Seahawks had a field goal attempt
(27:45):
to win the game, and I mean at Stafford, I
think at twenty eight pass attempt for one hundred and
thirty yards if I recall correctly, he was not good.
And now there's no Adams Seahawks at home. And I
know that Donald has struggled against this defense in the past,
but I feel like they figured some things down in
the second half against Atlanta similarly structured defense scheme, and
(28:06):
he's at home this time around. So yeah, and the
loss of Adams is big in the red zone, just
as that man beater so too.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
He's essentially their goal line back.
Speaker 1 (28:19):
If you look at how often they've thrown him the
ball in the one yard line, it's it's beyond him.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
I mean, they go, they'll go. They're thirteen personnel inside
the ten is like a cheat code, and they'll they
have Stafford will just look at what the linebacker safety
is doing over the tight end, and they'll have Adams
split out and if based on what he does, he's
throwing it. If there's a one on one if this
safety or linebacker comes up, or files a tight ender
(28:46):
comes up to play the run. I mean it's just
one on one to Adams. No one's covering him, So
without that you can focus more attention on Nicoole. But
I just like this matchup for the Seattle defense. So yeah,
I think the Seahawks get it done.
Speaker 5 (28:57):
To home.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Should be a good game, should be ugly, and there's
gonna be wins, rain totals come down. But I think
the Seahawks get it done. But these are these are
the two best teams against the spread in the NFL.
I think it'll be a good one looking.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
Forward to Should we be concerned that we have a
turnover prone Sam Darnold in the rain.
Speaker 2 (29:14):
That's that's my only real ye here with this game.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
I was going to say, three fields a little bit
like a crowd in this instance for me personally, I
got in on this game on Sunday for the same
reason that's Dock you mentioned. I was trying to get
ahead of the number before Adams and potentially Nakua, who
was having a bad week in the press. I might
add additionally, it's for like what I think when I
(29:38):
think about this game. I sit here and I think, one,
it's hard to beat a divisional opponent twice in one season.
I like the idea that that's probably leaning towards the split.
I liked it they're at home. And what really pushed
me to get to the window on this is that
they look. Yes, they won, and it's hard to sit
here and say it's a bounce back game after a win,
but they looked like shit against a Philip Rivers led
(30:00):
Colts team. They almost lost to a forty four year
old grandfather. If they don't come out guns of blazon
in this game, I'm going to fade the Seahawks for
the rest of the season. If they don't come out
genuinely looking like a Super Bowl contender against a Super
Bowl contender, it's done. They're dead. To me. I'm fading
Sam Darnold the rest of the freaking season.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
It was almost like a college look ahead spot with
the way that they played so sleepy against the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
Still to come.
Speaker 1 (30:27):
Two Kings and a Queen get nominated in our weekly Parlay.
But first, a word about DraftKings from the First Lady.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
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where new customers can bet five dollars and get two
hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins.
Love the thrill of live betting, DraftKings has got you covered.
Bet live on star player props and in progress games
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(30:55):
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two hundred back in bonus bet. If your bet wins,
the crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (31:03):
Alrighty time to talk Monday Night Football and our friends
over at Sling TV. With Sling TV, you can take control.
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(31:24):
and playoff games all for as low as four ninety nine.
You just simply can't beat that time for a Monday
night football preview.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
Let's look at forty nine Ers Colts.
Speaker 1 (31:33):
The Colts catching six and a half at home San
Francisco ten and four record might be a little bit overblown.
I think the team is good, but their strength of
victory thirty six percent. Among the good teams in the NFC,
only the Bears have a lower strength of victory than
the San Francisco forty nine ers.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
But here's the thing.
Speaker 1 (31:55):
Their opponent this coming Monday night, I think gets filed
under easy competition when you're taking on in a mobile
old quarterback in Philip Rivers, who just in some aspects,
had the game of his life that he was able
to get off the couch or get off of the
high school coaching ring and play at least some level
(32:19):
of respectable football.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
So I can only look at the forty nine ers.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
But more than anything else, I'm just gonna go back
to the well with what I bet last week in
the return of Philip Rivers. I'm gonna go with Rivers
under half a rushing yard minus one eighty five. The
guy can't move. This is It's like a free bet.
So I'm gonna I'm gonna look in that direction. Kendro,
what about you?
Speaker 4 (32:44):
I feel like I have to ask Stucky the Philip
Rivers or Featherweight question from Tuesday show. I'm all over
the forty nine ers here. I think it's time to
absolutely fade the Colts and anything up to a touchdown
works for me.
Speaker 3 (32:58):
We had a lot of agreement on this. I actually
disagree with Kendra on that, but I played, I played
the Colts. I think the line's too high. I mean,
the forty nine ers were the LAS three weeks. Wh
would they beat like the Browns in the dead even game?
Statistically the Titans. Both teams were able to run on
the forty nine ers, but the fort Niners defense is
so bad like they Jonathan Taylor, I think he's gonna
(33:19):
run wild here, and I mean I think since week seven,
the forty Niners are thirty first in rushed success rate allowed.
And I think, look, Rivers, I think you can expect
better from him this week. You're playing a defense that
is poverty levels when it comes to getting pressure. They
can't defend the run. Last week, he's on the road.
His first game in five he was playing the Seattle defense,
(33:40):
which is one of the three best in the NFL
that can get pressure without blitzing. Now he's playing defense.
I can't get any pressure whatsoever. Me Dnk he can
dink and dunk, feed Taylor and I think the fort
nineers at the peak of the market value. They're playing
a bunch of bad teams in a row with a
ton of injuries as well. But I'm gonna go with
I think Taylor gets gets fed and he has a
big so I'm gonna go tailor longest rush over seventeen
(34:05):
and a half yards. I think he breaks a couple here.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
Did you get your wife pregnant nine months before bowl
season and the end of the regular season and you
need some instant access to live TV, perhaps from the
hospital room.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
Sling TV is your solution.
Speaker 1 (34:19):
To that instant access for live TV, starting at four
ninety nine, and this works for Monday night football. This
also works great for the upcoming college football playoff. There
is not a better time to acquaint yourself with the one, three,
and seven day passes from Sling TV. Offer applies to
Orange one day pass restrictions apply. It's time for the
(34:40):
reason you all came here today, the two Kings and
a Queen parlay nominations. We each nominate two and then
we will see what we land on.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
Kendra Us started well since stuck. He hates my forty
nine ers pick. I have a feeling that We're gonna
go with my Baltimore option, because those are the two
that I laid out. I just don't know if the
Patriots defense, with all of their injuries, especially because I
don't know if Spallaine is now going to play on Sunday,
(35:19):
they're gonna be able to stop the run. I know
Lamar Jackson's out with an illness. He has the immune
system of a Victorian child. It feels like every December
he has some sort of illness or the poop game,
or you know, the wheelchair game, whatever we want to
call it from him. He has Paul Pierce moment against
the Packers a couple of seasons ago. I don't really
care that Lamar Jackson's sick, especially since he missed Wednesday practice.
(35:41):
He's been missing Wednesday practices pretty much the entirety of
the year. Baltimore is just a step up in class
for the Patriots, like Buffalo was last weekend. I get
that the Patriots were leading Buffalo at the half, Buffalo
came back. It's just the ability that the Ravens have
to run the ball, and I don't think the Patriots
(36:01):
are going to have an answer for it, especially with
all the linebacker. You know, injuries that popped up for
them this week. Robert Spoltan was in a boot yesterday.
It just feels like the Patriots kind of are facing
that bit of a reality check that we all knew
what was coming because of the strength of their schedule.
So I'm going to fade them again this week.
Speaker 3 (36:20):
I love this. I played the Ravens two Lamar by
the Way eighteen and eight against the spread of December
has never lost the game weeks fifteen through eighteen per
Evan Abrams is primer, and since we ate after the bye,
Ravens second in rush EPA. Charlie Kohler has been amazing
run blocking. They were twenty second over the first seven weeks.
(36:41):
Patriots defense since week eight thirtieth in rushed success rate allowed,
thirtieth in RUSHYPA. Milton Williams is hurt. Robert Splane, whos
their leading tackler, calls the defense is hurt. They got
banged up in the secondary last week. This team which
played nobody and was getting lucky. I mean on the
year there they played the luckiest. They played the easiest
schedule in the league. They've gone fourteen of nineteen on
(37:02):
fourth downs. Their opponents have gone eight of twenty three,
They've had seventeen fumbles, only lost seven, recovered sixty seven
percent of their opponent fumbles, have had games against teams
that just completely imploded on special teams, and they've played
some of the worst quarterbacks that are no longer starters
in the league. I think this line should be over
a field goal. Now you have injuries, I mean Will
(37:23):
Campbell being out of left tackle, Verderon Lowe is unplayable
there and this is just a classic hardball Jackson primetime
spot against an eleven win team. I like the Ravens
get it done, and I think they'll be able to
abuse the Patriots linebackers and safeties with their tight ends
and throwing over the middle of the field. And Lamar
(37:43):
started to look better progressively each and every week. And
the Ravens defense is playing really well. I mean since
we week six fifth and EPA play fifth and success
rate first against the run. The one thing that Ravens
still are struggling with is their red zone offense. Their
second to worst in the red zone forty four percent
red zone touchdown percentage, way down from last year. Well,
guess whos the worst red zone defense in the NFL.
(38:05):
It's the Patriots, so they might actually see some positive
results inside the twenty. I like the Ravens. I'm sorry, Kenrim,
what we're going to say?
Speaker 4 (38:12):
No, no, You're fine. I was going to see Two more
points that I forgot to add here before we get
to Kravitz is one, Drake May does not have the
fourth quarter game winning drive of any sort in his career,
and that's kind of the situation I expect them to
be in this week. And the other thing is I
am going to get these numbers backwards, but I think
eighty one percent of the bets are on at the
Patriots with eighty nine percent of the money, I might
(38:34):
have gotten that back We thought if.
Speaker 1 (38:35):
I was staring at that, that was going to be
my follow up. If you are OK, I fade the
public camp, and Evan has been detailing how decimated the
public betters have been getting this year. If you're if
you see a team catching over sixty percent of the tickets, Evan,
before I continue babbling about this, I don't have the
(38:57):
number right in front of me. How bad has it
been for the those the teams that are catching sixty
percent or more of the bets.
Speaker 5 (39:03):
Yeah, to be clear, this is sixty percent on close,
so you know have probably tune in like close to
kickoff to kind of look at some of those numbers.
But sixty percent or more fifty four and ninety thirty
eight percent through fifteen weeks pretty ridiculous minus twenty eight
percent return on investment. And maybe the crazier part is
the consistency fourteen of fifteen weeks below five hundred against
(39:25):
the spread in that spot.
Speaker 2 (39:26):
So pretty crazy. And there is that a look.
Speaker 1 (39:29):
At US consensus this week, this is crazy and I'm
with you one hundred percent. I have no issue whatsoever
with the Ravens this week. The Patriots are the most
heavily bet side in terms of ticket percentage, So not
only eighty one percent, but there's no team in the
NFL this week that's catching a higher percentage than the
(39:49):
Patriots are right now. So even though, like Evan said,
these numbers really only hold any sort of trend value
right before kickoff, I doubt you're gonna go from eighty.
Speaker 2 (40:00):
One percent to south of sixty percent. So the Patriots will.
Speaker 1 (40:03):
Qualify if you like to fade that public trend. So Ravens, Yes,
they're in there at minus three. I'm going to nominate
the Dolphins at plus four or the Cowboys money line.
Speaker 2 (40:17):
These are both kind of gross.
Speaker 4 (40:19):
You guys are both on some gross ash shit this week.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
I kind of like Dolphins, so this line springs. It
was the injury overreaction and the way the market has
settled down after the fact. The line was Bengals minus
two right when you started getting whispers that there might
be a change. Then the line springs to Bengals minus
four and a half. Across every book that I looked at,
(40:44):
it's your typical overreaction to a benching or injury news.
I just disagree with the movement. Tua hasn't been able
to complete throws ten yards down the field. He hasn't
been on time, he hasn't been on schedule with this offense.
He had trouble managing the two minute drill on Monday
Night football. And as much as quin Ewers might be bad,
I think anything fresh for Miami right now is a positive,
(41:06):
especially when you consider how bad the defense is they're
going up against. We're not asking quin Yours to be
e lite here, and it's not like he's going up
against the LA Rams. I rarely rarely suggest betting the
Miami Dolphins, but I do feel like this is the
right read in the right side to be on. And
the Chargers are just this is let down city for them.
They just beat the Chiefs on the road, and you've
(41:29):
got Dak on a home stand. Evan points this out
in the Primer second home game in a row for
the Cowboys with Dak Prescott as the quarterback last fifteen,
He's thirteen and two.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
Straight up.
Speaker 1 (41:41):
You have the Chargers off of an overtime Monday night
football game and then go on the road to Kansas City,
and now they're on the road in Dallas, and Dallas
always plays better at home, So tough schedule spot for
the Chargers. Those are my two nominations. Kendra vote, Can
you just not piss me.
Speaker 4 (42:00):
Off for one week and give me something that I
don't have to rip my hair out over.
Speaker 2 (42:04):
It's become my mission, really.
Speaker 4 (42:06):
I'm kind of just I get the talking point of
something fresh for Miami, but getting behind a rookie quarterback
at this point in the season feels disgusting.
Speaker 3 (42:15):
But I can't seventh round draft pick too like it
could go like Brasma, you just don't know. It could
be like just a complete It's not like this guy
is the first or second. He's a seventh round draft pick.
Speaker 2 (42:26):
He was a seventh round draft pick.
Speaker 1 (42:28):
He is also somebody that, prior to last season starting
at Texas, was projected to be a first round pick.
I mean he had a bad season that it was his.
Speaker 4 (42:36):
Draft stock season, double ass booty cheeks season.
Speaker 1 (42:40):
I don't think he's your typical seventh round pick. I
think he has first round ability, it just didn't have
He just had a he had a rough season. He's
not a great processor. I've talked to some people down
in the Miami area. It's not like there's buzz around him.
I'm not trying to overhype when you weres here. I
just I think it's an overreaction. I think two has
been so bad that any adjustment to Mike McDaniel just
(43:04):
being able to mold his own version of what he
wants a quarterback to be in his offense is going
to be so valuable, even if it's just for a
one week blip and the fact that they get to
do it against a bad defense at home.
Speaker 3 (43:17):
I was just gonna say, Dolphins want to lose I
mean the Dolphins are, yeah, kind of indirectly tanking.
Speaker 2 (43:25):
They can lose, just lose by less than four.
Speaker 3 (43:28):
We gotta get that. I'm not betting the Dolphins. We said,
we said, we didn't know part of that. I would
I so it has to be Dallas.
Speaker 4 (43:37):
I disagree. I was gonna say the Dolphins just because
of the thing that I mentioned earlier, with us not
really knowing what type of McDaniels wants to run when
it's not designed around to I give it. I think
that that gives him a little bit more creative freedom here.
Speaker 3 (43:51):
I mean, he's just gonna run. They're just gonna run
it like that's all they've been doing. So like I did,
they're just pa give your hand to the eight chene
fifty thirty times again, which might work against the Bengals.
Speaker 4 (44:02):
But no Ollie Gordon rushing prop on DK right now.
Speaker 3 (44:06):
I'll say Cowboys and make evan But the only thing
is with the Cowboys. The Cowboys might be eliminated from
the playoffs on Saturday night officially, and while I don't
think that impacts them playing at home against the Chargers,
I think they're gonna show up. The market might back
you might get buy back on that. You might get
some money coming in on the Chargers. But I've seen
(44:28):
this before late in the season team gets eliminated. There
was like a Green Bayal Detroit game in the final
week of the season the Lions got bet against because
they got eliminated earlier in the day. They ended up
beating the Packers. I think it was a Sunday night game,
so you might get a better price there. But I'll
go Dallas. Money line is going to Miami, so Ivan,
you gotta I mean, I just hate both these games.
Speaker 5 (44:52):
This is ridiculous if you're gonna make me go ahead
and pick though, Like, I just don't understand why Cincinnati
and Miami would be like a consideration because I the
question marks on both sides. You have no idea what
you're gonna get from Burrow, from viewers. There's just so
many question marks.
Speaker 3 (45:10):
So that goes off lost to historically.
Speaker 2 (45:14):
Yeah, but okay, can I pause you right there?
Speaker 1 (45:17):
Evan, Yes, there's a lot of question marks, But isn't
that sort of.
Speaker 3 (45:22):
Well, then you should go money line. You should just
play the variants.
Speaker 1 (45:24):
I mean that there's so much known in the NFL.
This is the most known widely known when.
Speaker 3 (45:33):
But you should then you should take the money line,
like if the viewers is disaster, they're gonna get bown out.
Like they're not gonna lose by I mean watching that now,
they said to lose by three.
Speaker 1 (45:39):
But I need I need some insurance here, stucky, So
I will take the I will take the four.
Speaker 2 (45:45):
But let's just go.
Speaker 3 (45:46):
You should go.
Speaker 5 (45:47):
You should go Raven's money line, Cowboys money line, and
move on to our next pick. In my opinion, let's
just take the money lines, go to win, and move
on to what we're doing.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
Oh my god, I'm so excited for the Dolphins to
cover and watch all they might make.
Speaker 3 (46:01):
I'm not saying they couldn't. I just don't want to
have any money on that game.
Speaker 5 (46:04):
But Burrow could throw for five hundred yards as well.
Speaker 2 (46:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (46:06):
My point is is that in an information game, no
sport is known better by any of us that bet
recreationally or beyond than the NFL. Sometimes the only leg
up we have is betting into the unknown, and that
is what we're doing here.
Speaker 5 (46:24):
A seventh round pick from Texas. Let's roll sure, all right,
so we got.
Speaker 3 (46:31):
We have a Cowboys moneyline. If you didn't. If you
didn't like Brent, you're not gonna like mine. My first
nomination Titans money line. Did the Chiefs show up? They
have offensive line injuries, they have injuries, a wide receiver,
it's Gardner Minshew. This team has never they haven't played
(46:52):
being eliminated from the playoffs in like eight years. How
do they talk about an emotional letdown? Also, Andy Reid
like wide waist any of your primo playbook here. The
Chiefs can finally get a decent draft pick. I don't
even know if they show up.
Speaker 2 (47:10):
Titans.
Speaker 3 (47:10):
Also they have safety injuries, offensive line injuries, but they'll
be excited for this game with cam Ward. I think
there's a lot of aarants and the Chiefs could just
lay down, like they could just be completely flat. And
they can't even run the ball. Their offense has been
struggling anyway, and then after more offensive line injuries to
start that game last week, they couldn't do a thing
with homes So and the Titans have been running the
ball better late. So the high variance game where the
(47:33):
Chiefs might just know show so Titan's money line or
if that didn't let your appetite raiders plus fourteen and
a half. It's my favorite out of the weekend. Sadly
so Texans injuries have They have some injuries and secondary
marks and running back. They've lost some guys in the Interier.
Their defensive line, raiders, they're horrendous. They're bad. But they
(47:59):
might get Holton Miller back at left tackle. That would
be massive. He's like an Andrew Thomas one of the Giants.
Whenever they didn't have Andrew Thomas, their offensive line and
completely crumbled. So'll not gonna be a good offensive line.
But if you have a top five left tackle, you
can actually like function a little bit more. So he's practicing,
came off. I think he's gonna play, but we'll see.
(48:20):
But this is mainly just bilow cell high spot. I
think we're at the peak of the market on the Texans.
Everyone is like, you don't want to play the Texans.
The Texans are going to win the AFC. That's your
number one signal that we're at the top of the market.
They've won six straight.
Speaker 1 (48:31):
I did just bet them to win the Super Bowl,
so stuck. He's probably right about that.
Speaker 3 (48:34):
Yeah, then they've benefited from a bunch of like a
lot of the teams they've played over the past their
six game winning you've been all been hurt. The Bills
didn't have an offensive line. Daniel Jones got hurt with
the Colts. The Chiefs had no offensive line. The Cardinals
whole team was hurt. So and four of their six
wins have come by one possession. Only one of the
six has been a playoff team. They still can't finish drives,
(48:55):
which is not ideal for a team you want to
win by three possessions. In the NFL, thirtieth in red
zone touchdown percentage. And this is also a bottom on
the Raiders. They were shut out with eighty yards last week.
The Eagles went on a seventeen play, ninety yards scoreless
drive to finish the game that took eleven minutes. That
(49:15):
was more yards than the Raiders had in the entire game.
Teams off a shutout seventy four to fifty five and
five against the spread, fifty seven and a half percent
on the road, sixty five percent, covering by over a
field goal per game. Road dogs off a shutout loss
sixty five percent historically. But this is one of my
and look, the Raiders are so bad, like it's it's bad,
(49:37):
but they've been blown out a bunch this year. Here's
what they've done after seventeen plus point losses. They lost
by one to the Bears, they should have won. They
beat the Titans by ten. They lost to the Jags
by one. They lost to the Broncos by seven and
covered shut out. Pete Carroll and Pete Carroll if you're
down seventeen this week, kicked that field goal and then
they got They lost by fourteen to the Browns. They're
(49:58):
four and one against the spread after law is this
year and one of my favorite trends. I mean, the
main reason I like this is Bilo cell High Miller
might be back, Texans have some injuries. I make it
under two touchdowns. I think we're getting over two touchdowns
because of the perception of these two teams. And one
of my favorite trends rarely comes up, but when there's
(50:19):
a double digit dog in the NFL for a second
straight week that didn't cover in the first week, past
twenty five years, fifty to twenty five against the spread,
covering by about four points per game. Why do I
like that trend? Well, usually you're you're getting a point
or two of value because no one, no one in
(50:39):
the right mind wants to bet a team, right. They
were a double digitalg the week prior they didn't cover,
which means bad team, blown out, looked awful. The next
week they're double digit dog again, which means bad team
playing another good team. So who wants to bet this
bad team at that? They saw them lose thirty one
to nothing with seventy yards. I think that's why we're
getting over two touchdowns. So yeah, I like the Raiders
(51:01):
catching their two touchdowns. Think they think this line should
be like thirteen thirteen.
Speaker 2 (51:03):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (51:04):
Okay, that was a fantastic case, but no, I will
I love the Titans this week.
Speaker 2 (51:10):
I voted the Titans easy, no case.
Speaker 4 (51:14):
I was going to see the Raiders just because I'm
cheering so hard against the Texans.
Speaker 5 (51:18):
So evan Titans, no question about it.
Speaker 3 (51:23):
Money line, money line point.
Speaker 1 (51:25):
We're going money line. Yeah, money, We're going money line favorites.
With the other two, I think I think we should
go money on.
Speaker 2 (51:30):
They've covered.
Speaker 5 (51:31):
They've covered six games this year after the worst Ats
year in NFL history. They've covered their last two against
teams under five hundred, which you know, just left to
let you know that is the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (51:41):
I touchdowns a lot. Can we do the points?
Speaker 3 (51:44):
Touchdown Titans, Ravens, Cowboys six to one at Draftings gorgeous.
Speaker 1 (51:51):
Let's ride that right there, Your two Kings and a
Queen parlay presented by Draft Kings. The Crown is yours.
That'll do it for today's episode special. Thanks to our
producers Gifford Gold, David Paynes, Statsound, Evan Abrams for breaking
some ties around here. Shout out to Stucky, his wife and.
Speaker 2 (52:09):
His new Little Burrito. Glad to have you back.
Speaker 1 (52:11):
The Favorites will return on Sunday Night, Week sixteen. A
recap catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page.
Thanks for hanging out. We'll see you next time here
on the Favorites presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 3 (52:21):
Don't see that She's ticket. Action Network reminds you please
gamble responsibly.
Speaker 4 (52:36):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The Crown
is yours. Happy Thursday. NFL Week sixteen has arrived. I'm
Brandon Kravitz, joined by an insightful and delightful duo, the
(00:22):
Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky is back on the podcast,
and the Queen herself, Miss Kendrim Middleton. On today's episode,
we will submit our official plays of the week. We've
got our stat of the day courtesy of Evan Abrams.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
We'll kick that to you in just a moment.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Two Kings and a Queen parlay courtesy of Draft Kings,
and we have planted our flags already the Browns plus ten,
the Seahawks tonight, and Matt Moore, who slid in for
Stucky on Tuesday's episode, was on the Broncos minus three,
went apo on our Jacksonville Jaguars. But before we to
(01:00):
anything of football substance, Stucky, how is the little burrito
doing at home?
Speaker 3 (01:07):
He's doing well, He's cute. Uh, it's hanging in there.
They I they said to like, I don't do much.
It's like, I mean, he sleeps in the needs and
my wife has to do all the work, right, now,
and I don't really sleep during football season, so that's
not a big adjustment. So yeah, they say that this morning.
(01:27):
He watched some bowl games with me last night, had
him on the couch locked up. They say to read
to them just like they're not going to register anything,
but like for your voice. And so I was reading
the book. I a recent book I got on the
history of the Venezuela. So he was learning about the
(01:49):
history of Venezuela this morning. So, uh, yeah, he was.
I was reading to him about Boulevar and uh, you.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Didn't want to roll with it's a good spider all
of the classics.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
No, I mean we have we have all those, but
I'll read them to him when like he can actually, ah,
like registering, it's more about like your voice, and so
I might as well read something that I want to read.
So maybe he'll end up getting into history. But yeah,
it's it's uh, it's not much different for me right now,
(02:25):
but it will be right now. They're they're pretty easy.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
Was it like a holy ship moment when you held them?
Speaker 3 (02:35):
Yeah, it was funny. He was born at one one
oh one Eastern on Sunday, And I guess you wanted
to catch the NFL slate and then they brought me
up to the.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Nurse right when the octobox gets shown on Red Zone too.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
Yeah, it was an emergency c section, so they brought
me up to the nursery after and then they had
to like still operate on my wife for a while. Well,
but they because it was a C section, they have
to like help them to breathe and clean them off.
So like I was just standing there while a bunch
of uh nurses and doctors were tending to them for
like an hour. So I was just sitting in the
(03:14):
nursery just but I wore like a winter I had
to scrolls. It had a winter hat on and and
then I had like headphones underneath and I just had
Red Zone playing in my pocket. So while I was
in the so yeah, I and then I was able
(03:40):
to go back. We went back to recovery room, and
then I was able to watch the Bills make a
crazy comeback, which was nice. So yeah, it was it
was a pretty crazy when we were in the hospital yesterday,
so that was kind of So that was from we
got went there at Saturday night and then he wasn't
(04:03):
born until Sunday at one, and then we got home
Wednesday afternoon, so we were there for it kind of
felt like a camp, like we were at camp. But
I was sleeping on like a cot whenever I did sleep.
That wasn't great. But yeah, it's big lu change, but
I'm excited. It'll get harder once he's able to move
(04:24):
around and stuff.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
But around and recavoc.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Yeah, that's that's gonna be the where everything changes. But
for now, status quo. We're on to week sixteen. A
lot of this this week. I'm actually really excited for
this week because you look at this week's hard, it's
you know, you have a lot of bad there's a
lot of bad quarterbacks the NFL regardless. But there's like
(04:48):
I think seven or eight rookies starting, like you have
Quinn yours now Brady Cook, So there's there's some I
think there's like seven ary rookies that are siding to do.
But this is like when the games matter for playoffs,
and we have ram Seahawks tonight, Packers, Bears Saturday Night,
(05:10):
Ravens Pats Monday Night. We get forty four year old
Philip Rivers on Monday Night against the forty nine ers.
But yeah, there's a lot of good games. Jags, Broncos
are Jags. There's some good games on the slate that
I'm looking forward to, but there's also some just like, Wow,
this is the state of our quarterback play right now. But
(05:32):
I'm excited for it, and I'm excited for the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Either a great thing or a scary thing. There are
a lot of games I like, and from a betting
perspective on this week's card, let's talk about one of
the ones you just mentioned. The Jags and the Broncos,
a matchup of ten and a twelve win team that
will not be seen by anybody but local markets. By
the way, no national broadcast keep doubting our Jaguars. Bnick's
(05:57):
coming off the best performance of the season him four touchdowns,
no interceptions, through for three to Zho two, took zero sacks.
The Jags, meanwhile, twenty five plus and seven straight games.
They're the only team in the NFL to be able
to be able to say that, and this trend screams Jacksonville.
This is our Evan Abrams stat of the day. Since
(06:17):
nineteen ninety, teams on an eleven plus game win streak
have been inflated and have struggled to cover fourteen and
thirty six and two against the spread. That's twenty eight percent.
To me, it's Jags or pass. I have not bet
the game yet. Broncos favored by three. I have Jacksonville
rated slightly higher, and I think part of that is
(06:39):
their strength of schedule denverse twenty eighth.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
The Jags are twelfth.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
And on top of that, Nick Giffin has the Broncos
number one in the luck rankings, Jags top ten. They're
number nine, but a percentage diff of nineteen percent. To me,
it's Jacksonville or nothing stuck yet? Do you read this one?
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Yeah, I'll be on the Jags. Wait and see if
I can get a three and a half, even if
I have to play like one, fifteen, one twenty for it.
I don't think that I have this under a field goal.
And you might say Nicks played his best game of
the season last week. I mean it was another lucky
Broncos when he had four turnover worthy plays. The Packers
dropped hens Uh dropped like three picks in that game. Additionally,
(07:20):
they lost Evan Williams, Michael Parsons, Christian Watson their right tack.
I mean they lost six starters during the game to injury.
So yeah, this Broncos team is just keeps getting away
with it every week. Not a believer. I think their
defense is good, but it's not like the Texans. I
think their defense is even a bit overrated. So yeah,
(07:43):
I'll be on the Jags. I mean the Jags defense
since Week eight, fourth and EPA per play, they've been
a top five run defense all season. That's important against Denver.
They're gonna play a lot of zone. Nicks is gonna
put the ball in Harm's way. Jags have been very
opportunistic on defense. And then I think the story of
the Jags this season, and one of the reasons why
I was in buying into them before the season was
(08:05):
Liam Cohen. Wherever he goes, the offense improves. Was expecting
the offense to improve as the season went on. It's
been even better than I thought. I mean since they
acquired Jacoby Myers, third in dropback success rate, sixth in
dropback EPA. Jacoby Myers has been amazing for them. They've
also gotten Brenton Strange back. The run game's been cooking
(08:27):
all season. So yeah, I uh, I'll be on. It'll
probably be another close Broncos game. I would love to
get a three and a half with the Jags.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Josh Heinz Allen popped up on the injury report. He's
dealing with an illness. He didn't practice on Wednesday. Wednesday's
a pretty standard day for stars not to practice. Old
and freak out about that. We'll just keep an eye
on that. Kendra, you are a resident Jags fan. We
have just simply hopped on the bandwagon. Do you have
confidence in your team going up against a Broncos team
that is undefeated at home this year?
Speaker 4 (08:59):
I'm on the Jags. We are a Jags podcast. I've
already put it in the app. I'm a little concerned
that Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland are both on the
injury report on that left side. That doesn't make me
feel great against a Broncos defense this. I would like
to add that I think the Jags are averageating in
the last six games like thirty three or thirty four
points a game, which is also just insane of as
(09:21):
a Jags fan who grew up hating this team but
also loving this team. That's an insane stat to say
out loud. The thing for me here isn't so much
that I'm super high on this Jags team, which you
guys know, I've had my ups and downs. I've been
in and out. Basil Tuton being on the injury report
as doubtful also doesn't really scare me that much, just because,
like wwent, Allen has been incredible on special teams and
I think that he can make up for the position
(09:42):
on that in the run game that Basil Tuton has
for the Jags, it's more so a fad of the
Broncos here for me, it is impossible to go on
such a wind streak like they have and not stumble
at some point, especially because like Stucky said, they will
absolutely Bonick will put the ball in Harm's way and
this Jags team will will, will will take advantage of
(10:05):
those opportunities. MAYA Spider Lloyd named after Devin Lloyd just
decided to molt on Sunday. So I'm thinking even Devin
Lloyd pick in this game. I think that that's what
that means.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
The Jags catching fifty eight percent of the bets right
now and.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
Dag one seed. Still they win this game.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Still alive, that's true.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
Still very much alive. That have the time breaker.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
Do you have the odds.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
Are there odds on that that are available, I would
think they're pretty good.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
They have to win this week. I mean, if they
lose this week, it's done. But if they have to
win this week and then they have what the the
Colts and the Titans.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
Left, Broncos are a game and a half up, and then.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
They need the the Broncos to lose two the Chargers,
Pats to lose this week to the.
Speaker 4 (10:57):
Ravens and have Chiefs on Christmas.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
Yeah, but I mean, what is the Chiefs. The most
likely loss for the Broncos is going to be the
Chargers at home in the finale.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
I don't know. I kind of I get that the
Chiefs suck. They have nothing to play for and we're
getting Gardner Minshew, but still divisional something to get up
for for some of those guys.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
I don't know it is, but I don't even know
who's gonna play Like the Chiefs are they just gonna
sit guys because there's nothing to play. They have so
many injuries that that's that's my main concern. Then obviously
the drop off from Mahomes to Minshew. But yeah, if
the Jags win, So if the Jags win this week
(11:44):
against Denver. We'll say the Ravens beat the Pats, and
then next week the Pats are probably gonna win out.
After that they play the Jets and the Dolphins. But
if the Broncos, let's see, the Jags have the tiebreaker,
(12:10):
So if the Jags went out, this would be one
more second. This is riveting, riveting podcasting.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
We did get a number I'll buy I'll buy you
some time here stock the Jags seven to one to
be the number one seed in the AFC. I don't
know how that math's out with all of these different
machinations that we need, but I don't like that.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Yeah, that's all that would have to happen. So that's
what would have to happen. Jags, we get the one seed,
be a three way tie for at thirteen and four
with the Jags, Broncos, and Pats all at thirteen and four,
and if that were to happen, so what we needs
to happen. They got to win out, including win over Denver.
Denver loses to the Chargers in the finale, Pats lose
(12:59):
to the Ravens, and even if the Pats went out
after that, the Jags would have the tiebreaker all at
thirteen and four and get the number one overall seed.
The Bills could also finish thirteen and four, so there
(13:21):
could be a a four way tie at the top,
but the Pats would win the division and the Jags
would get the one seed.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Anything to avoid going to Houston for the playoffs. In on,
I will chase it. I want the Chargers at home.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Every wants those Texans. Nobody wants them.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
By the way, if you want to a much more
simple version where you don't have to wait until things
play out in week seventeen and beyond. Jags money line
Ravens money line for week sixteen is plus two eighty one,
so not exactly the seven to one, but if you
just thought that maybe things were going to tilt in
that direction, that could be a way to look.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
Now another could we could also have five teams that
finish thirteen and four in the AFC. So if the
Chargers went out and in that case and then said
Denver loses to the Jags and they lose to the Chargers,
the Chargers would have the two seed and win the division.
The Pats would have the three seed and win the division.
(14:23):
The thirteen or four Broncos would have the six seed,
the thirteen and four Bills would have the five seed,
and the thirteen or four Jags would have the one seed.
Pretty wild.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
Do you have any You just had a child, so
perhaps you know you're not ready for this, But do
you have anything random, weird, bizarre for us this week?
Speaker 2 (14:42):
Hey, this is a dumb question.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
Let me ask you a personal question kind.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Of question is that is questions.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
What if anything, is the weirdest thing that you have
stolen in your life that you regret? So I think
I can't remember the only thing I can remember that
I've ever stolen. I mean, I'm sure I stole something
when I was like a kid, right like you grabbed
(15:11):
like a candy bar. I don't know, But like, the
only thing I remember stealing is and I actually still
I actually felt bad about it. The next day was
I was It was I was in Hoboken, New Jersey,
visiting a friend and we were out all night and
it was like three in the morning and we were
(15:31):
walking back to his place after the bars, and then
there was this huge bread It was like four in
the morning. There was this huge bread truck that was
delivering bread to like a store and I hopped in
and I just grabbed this big crate of rolls. Why
(15:54):
would I steal roll So my friend had like rolls
for like a year frozen in his freezer. But I
felt bad for the bread guy the next day because
I don't know who would have to to cover that,
But I did. I have stolen rolls in my life
and then didn't use any of them. I left the
next day. So that's the only thing I think of it.
And it's a poot two part question. When you were
(16:16):
a kid, what was your if there was like an
ice cream truck or if you didn't have an ice
cream truck. Did you guys have an ice cream truck
that will come around?
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Oh? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (16:27):
What was your order? Mine for mine for that was
I saw an ice cream truck other day and for
some reason, I didn't seen one in forever. I would
always you. I would always get the uh that Mickey
Mouse bar, that's so hot. I love that, And then
(16:48):
I'd always get candy cigs and try to act cool
like with the fake cigarettes.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
I can that.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
So no ice cream trucks, I don't know. Maybe some
people didn't didn't have an ice cream truck that comes around.
We don't have an ice creamruf that comes in my
neighbor so uh yeah. So Kendra, have you ever stolen anything?
Speaker 4 (17:09):
And one of them I can't talk about on the air,
but I will tell you guys off the air because
it is so illegal. It's actually an issue, and I
was so young and I did not realize anything at
the time. The only other thing that I've stolen is
I accidentally walked out of the grocery store with a
thing at toilet paper under my cart once and that
still haunts me to this day that I feel bad about.
(17:30):
My ice cream truck order was I think it's called
a screwball. It's like the like slush and then it
had the gumball at the bottom. Oh yeah, yeah, I
like that one.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
My ice cream order was always the WWF ice cream bar,
so you know, and then you would open it and
he could have like the hul Cogan or the Big
boss Man. You know, you never knew who his image
was going to be drawn on the ice cream bar.
But the ice cream itself was really good too. It
was like a gram cracker crust with vanilla on the inside.
(18:01):
And then the second you said the thing that you stole.
I had this instant memory. Thirteen years old, I'm at
Dillard's with my friend Steven. I'm at yeah and uh,
and for some reason, he wanted to start stealing Tommy
Hill figure tags off of the Tommy Hill And they're
(18:22):
just like little cardboard.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
Things that hang on the shirts.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
And so we took a bunch of those, and then
we decided that we were doing so well with this,
we're gonna up our game.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
Do you remember those flotation devices.
Speaker 1 (18:34):
On the Nautica jackets back in the day, So these
I'm putting this picture up, these little things.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
Yeah, so we started taking those.
Speaker 1 (18:43):
At that point, Dillard's had enough and we got sent
to the security office at Dillard's and they told me
that they had my parents come and pick me up.
And I wasn't allowed back at Dillard's until I was
sixteen years old and so and I don't there's no
way they still I was thirteen, fourteen, fifteen years old
(19:05):
that my picture was hanging up at Dillard's in South Florida,
and I will do with them. I just just kept
them just it just became like a game, like we
could get more of them.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
I don't know, it was really stupid. I was thirteen
years old, but.
Speaker 3 (19:23):
Yeah, actually, like a Dillard's, I actually got arrested for
stealing something.
Speaker 4 (19:30):
It was arrested.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
Yeah. So I was sixteen and I was down at
my friend's senior week house.
Speaker 2 (19:36):
And he's smoking candy cigarettes.
Speaker 3 (19:39):
And they were at their senior week house. They were
out of toilet paper, and I went to the to
the boardwalk that this is down to the Jersey Shore.
I went to the boardwalk with my friend and we
(20:02):
took toilet paper out of a bathroom. One of the workers,
I guess, saw us walking out with it and they
waved down a cop, and a cop chased this down
and I got arrested for underage drinking because I was
(20:22):
drunk when he stopped me. And I was sixteen, so
technically that's taking toilet paper. I was just trying to
be nice because they were out of toilet paper at
their house. I was there for a night. I was
like a freshman. They were at their senior week house.
My dad had to come get drive at three in
the morning and come get me two hours away and
(20:43):
drive me back. He was not happy. So, yeah, you.
Speaker 4 (20:47):
Were You were the leader of degenerate nation from a
young age my friend.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
So, yeah, that's a toilet paper rolls. I guess I
have a thing for stealing rolls. I guess that's the
common theme, and I did use any of them.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
These are everyday household items.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
You know, at least you were stealing things of value
and not flotation devices.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Uh, let's get to action or distraction.
Speaker 3 (21:09):
This is a distracted stactic. I'm not stacky.
Speaker 4 (21:12):
I want it on. The action.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
Too was benched by Mike McDaniel insides Quinn yours, and
we saw the line shift a few points in the process.
I'll give my take on this later because it is
one of my nominations. But Kendra, action or distraction on
the line movement, given how bad Tua has.
Speaker 4 (21:34):
Been, I want nothing to do with the Dolphins right
now at all.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Nothing.
Speaker 4 (21:41):
Don't even know. I don't Here's the thing. If Quinn
you weres is starting before Zach Wilson and Tua is
now behind those two, that points to no go nothing.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
I know.
Speaker 4 (21:54):
I will say, I do think that this is gonna
weirdly teach us a lot about the Tua scenario, just
because I don't think we've seen with the Dolphins. Mike
McDaniel run an offense that's not based around to his ability,
and I think that that's going to be like a
huge thing of whether we might see I don't think
that the Dolphins are going to be able to get
rid of his contract at all, just because of how
(22:15):
much money they owe him, his injury history and his capabilities.
I think they're going to be stuck, you know, with
the Kirk Cousins situation. But we're going to learn a
lot about how tailored this offense was to him, and
I think that that's probably going to affect the to
a market in a way.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
If you are a quarterback needy team, would you take
a shot on Tua.
Speaker 4 (22:36):
No, absolutely not, because his injury history is enough for
me to stay away at that price. Absolutely not.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
I would. I mean it depends on yeah, I mean
his price in the market. But I think the two
it can be like a really solid Mariota, like just
the the best backup.
Speaker 4 (23:00):
In the league right for that price.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
Well, obviously that's when you wouldn't pay The Dolphins have
to eat that price.
Speaker 4 (23:07):
The Dolphins have to eat that So whn't at that
point they just cut him because then they can spread
that money out over two seasons. If that's how it's
gonna go.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
Yeah, but I'm saying for a new team, like it's
gonna be like Russell Wilson.
Speaker 1 (23:19):
Like Wilson was let go by Denver. Denver had to
eat the money and then everyone signed a million dollar
contract with Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
Yeah, if they caught him before June first, it's gonna
cost them ninety nine million in dead money, which is insane.
The record is that the Broncos with eighty five million
for Russell Wilson, which is pretty amazing what the Broncos
are doing right now considering how far back that would
have set a lot of teams. I mean, look at
the Browns with Watson. But yeah, I mean I think
too it is probably and that with his injury history,
(23:49):
that's gonna work best for him, would probably work best.
Is just like a backup to a good team.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
That so.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
But as far as the blind movement, yeah, I mean
I agree with that. It it was two, it was
one and a half two two and a half. I
think it was one and a half. It leaked out
to two and a half when there was when when
McDaniel said all options are on the table, and then
it jumped out to four and a half after the announcement,
I think it's settled. He's that up four now or
last I saw. I think that makes sense. You gotta
(24:20):
remember that also, not all line moves are created equal.
This is going through three, so you know, something going
from like a pick to minus two is not as
impactful as something going from you know, one and a
half two out to four through the through three, which
is the biggest key number in football. So yeah, I
think that it's it's warranted. You just don't know, Like
(24:40):
two hasn't been great. The Dolphins have been relying on
their run game. They just haven't been asking to it
to do much, and their run defense has been incredible.
Uh and but their their secondary is still vulnerable, which
is what I would worry about against Burrow. And but
as far as the drop off, you just don't know
what yours is going to look like. This isn't a
high draft pick. He's a rookie, it's his first start,
(25:00):
and I know the Bengals aren't a great defense, but
you have to expect that it's going to be a
couple of points worse than two, even though he hasn't
been great. So yeah, I agree, with the move at
this price, Like Kendra, I have no interest in betting
this game. We think after the Bengals were eliminated, like
(25:22):
where are they at? Mentally, Dolphins were eliminated like just
a game that's I don't want to see any fun.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
We have a squad ride tonight.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
If you look on the Action Network app, I'm on
the Seahawks, Kendra's on the Seahawks. Stuck, He's on the Seahawks.
And we didn't even discuss it as a unit. We'd
all just sort of wound up there. Action or distraction
for this is a great or bed sign for us
and the Birds.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Stucky a great son. We've been good this year, so
we're about to hit our two kings and Queen parlay later.
But yeah, the energy I played. The Seahawks are early
cheap money line, like, I think that they've taken some
money since and I think the line is getting close
to right. But the biggest thing for me is the
(26:11):
loss of Devanta Adams makes the Rams so much easier
to defend. They've been relying on a lot of heavy personnel,
and no team in the NFL is better equipped to
defend heavy personnel than the Seahawks. So what a lot
of teams do by mistake is they match heavy personnel,
so multiple tight ends with either their base defense or
(26:33):
heavy defense, which means a lot more linebackers on the field.
That's a mistake because what do the Rams do out
of that? They throw out of heavy personnel and they
do it extremely well and if you have more linebackers
on the field. The Lions did this last week. They
matched the Rams heavy personnel with base and heavy. Every
single snap they got destroyed, absolutely destroyed the Seahawks they met.
(26:59):
They match heavy personnel with you know, they're with not
not based, not heavy, They're gonna you know, nickel dime you.
They match based on the down and distance, which is
what you should do. And part of that is they
have Nick emn Warre who can play you know, linebacker
if you run, or defensive back, and they have a
lot of versatile guys and McDonald's a very smart defensive coordinator.
(27:23):
They match you know, heavy personnel with bass or heavy
at the lowest rate in elitue. They are tail They
have a tailor made defense to defend the Rams, especially
without DeVonta Adams. And it's one of the reasons in
the first meeting, Stafford had his worst game of the
season by far. Think about this. Donald threw four picks
on the road. The Seahawks had a field goal attempt
(27:45):
to win the game, and I mean at Stafford, I
think at twenty eight pass attempt for one hundred and
thirty yards if I recall correctly, he was not good.
And now there's no Adams Seahawks at home. And I
know that Donald has struggled against this defense in the past,
but I feel like they figured some things down in
the second half against Atlanta similarly structured defense scheme, and
(28:06):
he's at home this time around. So yeah, and the
loss of Adams is big in the red zone, just
as that man beater so too.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
He's essentially their goal line back.
Speaker 1 (28:19):
If you look at how often they've thrown him the
ball in the one yard line, it's it's beyond him.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
I mean, they go, they'll go. They're thirteen personnel inside
the ten is like a cheat code, and they'll they
have Stafford will just look at what the linebacker safety
is doing over the tight end, and they'll have Adams
split out and if based on what he does, he's
throwing it. If there's a one on one if this
safety or linebacker comes up, or files a tight ender
(28:46):
comes up to play the run. I mean it's just
one on one to Adams. No one's covering him, So
without that you can focus more attention on Nicoole. But
I just like this matchup for the Seattle defense. So yeah,
I think the Seahawks get it done.
Speaker 5 (28:57):
To home.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
Should be a good game, should be ugly, and there's
gonna be wins, rain totals come down. But I think
the Seahawks get it done. But these are these are
the two best teams against the spread in the NFL.
I think it'll be a good one looking.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
Forward to Should we be concerned that we have a
turnover prone Sam Darnold in the rain.
Speaker 2 (29:14):
That's that's my only real ye here with this game.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
I was going to say, three fields a little bit
like a crowd in this instance for me personally, I
got in on this game on Sunday for the same
reason that's Dock you mentioned. I was trying to get
ahead of the number before Adams and potentially Nakua, who
was having a bad week in the press. I might
add additionally, it's for like what I think when I
(29:38):
think about this game. I sit here and I think, one,
it's hard to beat a divisional opponent twice in one season.
I like the idea that that's probably leaning towards the split.
I liked it they're at home. And what really pushed
me to get to the window on this is that
they look. Yes, they won, and it's hard to sit
here and say it's a bounce back game after a win,
but they looked like shit against a Philip Rivers led
(30:00):
Colts team. They almost lost to a forty four year
old grandfather. If they don't come out guns of blazon
in this game, I'm going to fade the Seahawks for
the rest of the season. If they don't come out
genuinely looking like a Super Bowl contender against a Super
Bowl contender, it's done. They're dead. To me. I'm fading
Sam Darnold the rest of the freaking season.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
It was almost like a college look ahead spot with
the way that they played so sleepy against the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
Still to come.
Speaker 1 (30:27):
Two Kings and a Queen get nominated in our weekly Parlay.
But first, a word about DraftKings from the First Lady.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
The Favorites podcast has teamed up a Draft Kings sportsbook
where new customers can bet five dollars and get two
hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins.
Love the thrill of live betting, DraftKings has got you covered.
Bet live on star player props and in progress games
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(30:55):
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two hundred back in bonus bet. If your bet wins,
the crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (31:03):
Alrighty time to talk Monday Night Football and our friends
over at Sling TV. With Sling TV, you can take control.
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(31:24):
and playoff games all for as low as four ninety nine.
You just simply can't beat that time for a Monday
night football preview.
Speaker 2 (31:32):
Let's look at forty nine Ers Colts.
Speaker 1 (31:33):
The Colts catching six and a half at home San
Francisco ten and four record might be a little bit overblown.
I think the team is good, but their strength of
victory thirty six percent. Among the good teams in the NFC,
only the Bears have a lower strength of victory than
the San Francisco forty nine ers.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
But here's the thing.
Speaker 1 (31:55):
Their opponent this coming Monday night, I think gets filed
under easy competition when you're taking on in a mobile
old quarterback in Philip Rivers, who just in some aspects,
had the game of his life that he was able
to get off the couch or get off of the
high school coaching ring and play at least some level
(32:19):
of respectable football.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
So I can only look at the forty nine ers.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
But more than anything else, I'm just gonna go back
to the well with what I bet last week in
the return of Philip Rivers. I'm gonna go with Rivers
under half a rushing yard minus one eighty five. The
guy can't move. This is It's like a free bet.
So I'm gonna I'm gonna look in that direction. Kendro,
what about you?
Speaker 4 (32:44):
I feel like I have to ask Stucky the Philip
Rivers or Featherweight question from Tuesday show. I'm all over
the forty nine ers here. I think it's time to
absolutely fade the Colts and anything up to a touchdown
works for me.
Speaker 3 (32:58):
We had a lot of agreement on this. I actually
disagree with Kendra on that, but I played, I played
the Colts. I think the line's too high. I mean,
the forty nine ers were the LAS three weeks. Wh
would they beat like the Browns in the dead even game?
Statistically the Titans. Both teams were able to run on
the forty nine ers, but the fort Niners defense is
so bad like they Jonathan Taylor, I think he's gonna
(33:19):
run wild here, and I mean I think since week seven,
the forty Niners are thirty first in rushed success rate allowed.
And I think, look, Rivers, I think you can expect
better from him this week. You're playing a defense that
is poverty levels when it comes to getting pressure. They
can't defend the run. Last week, he's on the road.
His first game in five he was playing the Seattle defense,
(33:40):
which is one of the three best in the NFL
that can get pressure without blitzing. Now he's playing defense.
I can't get any pressure whatsoever. Me Dnk he can
dink and dunk, feed Taylor and I think the fort
nineers at the peak of the market value. They're playing
a bunch of bad teams in a row with a
ton of injuries as well. But I'm gonna go with
I think Taylor gets gets fed and he has a
big so I'm gonna go tailor longest rush over seventeen
(34:05):
and a half yards. I think he breaks a couple here.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
Did you get your wife pregnant nine months before bowl
season and the end of the regular season and you
need some instant access to live TV, perhaps from the
hospital room.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
Sling TV is your solution.
Speaker 1 (34:19):
To that instant access for live TV, starting at four
ninety nine, and this works for Monday night football. This
also works great for the upcoming college football playoff. There
is not a better time to acquaint yourself with the one, three,
and seven day passes from Sling TV. Offer applies to
Orange one day pass restrictions apply. It's time for the
(34:40):
reason you all came here today, the two Kings and
a Queen parlay nominations. We each nominate two and then
we will see what we land on.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
Kendra Us started well since stuck. He hates my forty
nine ers pick. I have a feeling that We're gonna
go with my Baltimore option, because those are the two
that I laid out. I just don't know if the
Patriots defense, with all of their injuries, especially because I
don't know if Spallaine is now going to play on Sunday,
(35:19):
they're gonna be able to stop the run. I know
Lamar Jackson's out with an illness. He has the immune
system of a Victorian child. It feels like every December
he has some sort of illness or the poop game,
or you know, the wheelchair game, whatever we want to
call it from him. He has Paul Pierce moment against
the Packers a couple of seasons ago. I don't really
care that Lamar Jackson's sick, especially since he missed Wednesday practice.
(35:41):
He's been missing Wednesday practices pretty much the entirety of
the year. Baltimore is just a step up in class
for the Patriots, like Buffalo was last weekend. I get
that the Patriots were leading Buffalo at the half, Buffalo
came back. It's just the ability that the Ravens have
to run the ball, and I don't think the Patriots
(36:01):
are going to have an answer for it, especially with
all the linebacker. You know, injuries that popped up for
them this week. Robert Spoltan was in a boot yesterday.
It just feels like the Patriots kind of are facing
that bit of a reality check that we all knew
what was coming because of the strength of their schedule.
So I'm going to fade them again this week.
Speaker 3 (36:20):
I love this. I played the Ravens two Lamar by
the Way eighteen and eight against the spread of December
has never lost the game weeks fifteen through eighteen per
Evan Abrams is primer, and since we ate after the bye,
Ravens second in rush EPA. Charlie Kohler has been amazing
run blocking. They were twenty second over the first seven weeks.
(36:41):
Patriots defense since week eight thirtieth in rushed success rate allowed,
thirtieth in RUSHYPA. Milton Williams is hurt. Robert Splane, whos
their leading tackler, calls the defense is hurt. They got
banged up in the secondary last week. This team which
played nobody and was getting lucky. I mean on the
year there they played the luckiest. They played the easiest
schedule in the league. They've gone fourteen of nineteen on
(37:02):
fourth downs. Their opponents have gone eight of twenty three,
They've had seventeen fumbles, only lost seven, recovered sixty seven
percent of their opponent fumbles, have had games against teams
that just completely imploded on special teams, and they've played
some of the worst quarterbacks that are no longer starters
in the league. I think this line should be over
a field goal. Now you have injuries, I mean Will
(37:23):
Campbell being out of left tackle, Verderon Lowe is unplayable
there and this is just a classic hardball Jackson primetime
spot against an eleven win team. I like the Ravens
get it done, and I think they'll be able to
abuse the Patriots linebackers and safeties with their tight ends
and throwing over the middle of the field. And Lamar
(37:43):
started to look better progressively each and every week. And
the Ravens defense is playing really well. I mean since
we week six fifth and EPA play fifth and success
rate first against the run. The one thing that Ravens
still are struggling with is their red zone offense. Their
second to worst in the red zone forty four percent
red zone touchdown percentage, way down from last year. Well,
guess whos the worst red zone defense in the NFL.
(38:05):
It's the Patriots, so they might actually see some positive
results inside the twenty. I like the Ravens. I'm sorry, Kenrim,
what we're going to say?
Speaker 4 (38:12):
No, no, You're fine. I was going to see Two more
points that I forgot to add here before we get
to Kravitz is one, Drake May does not have the
fourth quarter game winning drive of any sort in his career,
and that's kind of the situation I expect them to
be in this week. And the other thing is I
am going to get these numbers backwards, but I think
eighty one percent of the bets are on at the
Patriots with eighty nine percent of the money, I might
(38:34):
have gotten that back We thought if.
Speaker 1 (38:35):
I was staring at that, that was going to be
my follow up. If you are OK, I fade the
public camp, and Evan has been detailing how decimated the
public betters have been getting this year. If you're if
you see a team catching over sixty percent of the tickets, Evan,
before I continue babbling about this, I don't have the
(38:57):
number right in front of me. How bad has it
been for the those the teams that are catching sixty
percent or more of the bets.
Speaker 5 (39:03):
Yeah, to be clear, this is sixty percent on close,
so you know have probably tune in like close to
kickoff to kind of look at some of those numbers.
But sixty percent or more fifty four and ninety thirty
eight percent through fifteen weeks pretty ridiculous minus twenty eight
percent return on investment. And maybe the crazier part is
the consistency fourteen of fifteen weeks below five hundred against
(39:25):
the spread in that spot.
Speaker 2 (39:26):
So pretty crazy. And there is that a look.
Speaker 1 (39:29):
At US consensus this week, this is crazy and I'm
with you one hundred percent. I have no issue whatsoever
with the Ravens this week. The Patriots are the most
heavily bet side in terms of ticket percentage, So not
only eighty one percent, but there's no team in the
NFL this week that's catching a higher percentage than the
(39:49):
Patriots are right now. So even though, like Evan said,
these numbers really only hold any sort of trend value
right before kickoff, I doubt you're gonna go from eighty.
Speaker 2 (40:00):
One percent to south of sixty percent. So the Patriots will.
Speaker 1 (40:03):
Qualify if you like to fade that public trend. So Ravens, Yes,
they're in there at minus three. I'm going to nominate
the Dolphins at plus four or the Cowboys money line.
Speaker 2 (40:17):
These are both kind of gross.
Speaker 4 (40:19):
You guys are both on some gross ash shit this week.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
I kind of like Dolphins, so this line springs. It
was the injury overreaction and the way the market has
settled down after the fact. The line was Bengals minus
two right when you started getting whispers that there might
be a change. Then the line springs to Bengals minus
four and a half. Across every book that I looked at,
(40:44):
it's your typical overreaction to a benching or injury news.
I just disagree with the movement. Tua hasn't been able
to complete throws ten yards down the field. He hasn't
been on time, he hasn't been on schedule with this offense.
He had trouble managing the two minute drill on Monday
Night football. And as much as quin Ewers might be bad,
I think anything fresh for Miami right now is a positive,
(41:06):
especially when you consider how bad the defense is they're
going up against. We're not asking quin Yours to be
e lite here, and it's not like he's going up
against the LA Rams. I rarely rarely suggest betting the
Miami Dolphins, but I do feel like this is the
right read in the right side to be on. And
the Chargers are just this is let down city for them.
They just beat the Chiefs on the road, and you've
(41:29):
got Dak on a home stand. Evan points this out
in the Primer second home game in a row for
the Cowboys with Dak Prescott as the quarterback last fifteen,
He's thirteen and two.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
Straight up.
Speaker 1 (41:41):
You have the Chargers off of an overtime Monday night
football game and then go on the road to Kansas City,
and now they're on the road in Dallas, and Dallas
always plays better at home, So tough schedule spot for
the Chargers. Those are my two nominations. Kendra vote, Can
you just not piss me.
Speaker 4 (42:00):
Off for one week and give me something that I
don't have to rip my hair out over.
Speaker 2 (42:04):
It's become my mission, really.
Speaker 4 (42:06):
I'm kind of just I get the talking point of
something fresh for Miami, but getting behind a rookie quarterback
at this point in the season feels disgusting.
Speaker 3 (42:15):
But I can't seventh round draft pick too like it
could go like Brasma, you just don't know. It could
be like just a complete It's not like this guy
is the first or second. He's a seventh round draft pick.
Speaker 2 (42:26):
He was a seventh round draft pick.
Speaker 1 (42:28):
He is also somebody that, prior to last season starting
at Texas, was projected to be a first round pick.
I mean he had a bad season that it was his.
Speaker 4 (42:36):
Draft stock season, double ass booty cheeks season.
Speaker 1 (42:40):
I don't think he's your typical seventh round pick. I
think he has first round ability, it just didn't have
He just had a he had a rough season. He's
not a great processor. I've talked to some people down
in the Miami area. It's not like there's buzz around him.
I'm not trying to overhype when you weres here. I
just I think it's an overreaction. I think two has
been so bad that any adjustment to Mike McDaniel just
(43:04):
being able to mold his own version of what he
wants a quarterback to be in his offense is going
to be so valuable, even if it's just for a
one week blip and the fact that they get to
do it against a bad defense at home.
Speaker 3 (43:17):
I was just gonna say, Dolphins want to lose I
mean the Dolphins are, yeah, kind of indirectly tanking.
Speaker 2 (43:25):
They can lose, just lose by less than four.
Speaker 3 (43:28):
We gotta get that. I'm not betting the Dolphins. We said,
we said, we didn't know part of that. I would
I so it has to be Dallas.
Speaker 4 (43:37):
I disagree. I was gonna say the Dolphins just because
of the thing that I mentioned earlier, with us not
really knowing what type of McDaniels wants to run when
it's not designed around to I give it. I think
that that gives him a little bit more creative freedom here.
Speaker 3 (43:51):
I mean, he's just gonna run. They're just gonna run
it like that's all they've been doing. So like I did,
they're just pa give your hand to the eight chene
fifty thirty times again, which might work against the Bengals.
Speaker 4 (44:02):
But no Ollie Gordon rushing prop on DK right now.
Speaker 3 (44:06):
I'll say Cowboys and make evan But the only thing
is with the Cowboys. The Cowboys might be eliminated from
the playoffs on Saturday night officially, and while I don't
think that impacts them playing at home against the Chargers,
I think they're gonna show up. The market might back
you might get buy back on that. You might get
some money coming in on the Chargers. But I've seen
(44:28):
this before late in the season team gets eliminated. There
was like a Green Bayal Detroit game in the final
week of the season the Lions got bet against because
they got eliminated earlier in the day. They ended up
beating the Packers. I think it was a Sunday night game,
so you might get a better price there. But I'll
go Dallas. Money line is going to Miami, so Ivan,
you gotta I mean, I just hate both these games.
Speaker 5 (44:52):
This is ridiculous if you're gonna make me go ahead
and pick though, Like, I just don't understand why Cincinnati
and Miami would be like a consideration because I the
question marks on both sides. You have no idea what
you're gonna get from Burrow, from viewers. There's just so
many question marks.
Speaker 3 (45:10):
So that goes off lost to historically.
Speaker 2 (45:14):
Yeah, but okay, can I pause you right there?
Speaker 1 (45:17):
Evan, Yes, there's a lot of question marks, But isn't
that sort of.
Speaker 3 (45:22):
Well, then you should go money line. You should just
play the variants.
Speaker 1 (45:24):
I mean that there's so much known in the NFL.
This is the most known widely known when.
Speaker 3 (45:33):
But you should then you should take the money line,
like if the viewers is disaster, they're gonna get bown out.
Like they're not gonna lose by I mean watching that now,
they said to lose by three.
Speaker 1 (45:39):
But I need I need some insurance here, stucky, So
I will take the I will take the four.
Speaker 2 (45:45):
But let's just go.
Speaker 3 (45:46):
You should go.
Speaker 5 (45:47):
You should go Raven's money line, Cowboys money line, and
move on to our next pick. In my opinion, let's
just take the money lines, go to win, and move
on to what we're doing.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
Oh my god, I'm so excited for the Dolphins to
cover and watch all they might make.
Speaker 3 (46:01):
I'm not saying they couldn't. I just don't want to
have any money on that game.
Speaker 5 (46:04):
But Burrow could throw for five hundred yards as well.
Speaker 2 (46:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (46:06):
My point is is that in an information game, no
sport is known better by any of us that bet
recreationally or beyond than the NFL. Sometimes the only leg
up we have is betting into the unknown, and that
is what we're doing here.
Speaker 5 (46:24):
A seventh round pick from Texas. Let's roll sure, all right,
so we got.
Speaker 3 (46:31):
We have a Cowboys moneyline. If you didn't. If you
didn't like Brent, you're not gonna like mine. My first
nomination Titans money line. Did the Chiefs show up? They
have offensive line injuries, they have injuries, a wide receiver,
it's Gardner Minshew. This team has never they haven't played
(46:52):
being eliminated from the playoffs in like eight years. How
do they talk about an emotional letdown? Also, Andy Reid
like wide waist any of your primo playbook here. The
Chiefs can finally get a decent draft pick. I don't
even know if they show up.
Speaker 2 (47:10):
Titans.
Speaker 3 (47:10):
Also they have safety injuries, offensive line injuries, but they'll
be excited for this game with cam Ward. I think
there's a lot of aarants and the Chiefs could just
lay down, like they could just be completely flat. And
they can't even run the ball. Their offense has been
struggling anyway, and then after more offensive line injuries to
start that game last week, they couldn't do a thing
with homes So and the Titans have been running the
ball better late. So the high variance game where the
(47:33):
Chiefs might just know show so Titan's money line or
if that didn't let your appetite raiders plus fourteen and
a half. It's my favorite out of the weekend. Sadly
so Texans injuries have They have some injuries and secondary
marks and running back. They've lost some guys in the Interier.
Their defensive line, raiders, they're horrendous. They're bad. But they
(47:59):
might get Holton Miller back at left tackle. That would
be massive. He's like an Andrew Thomas one of the Giants.
Whenever they didn't have Andrew Thomas, their offensive line and
completely crumbled. So'll not gonna be a good offensive line.
But if you have a top five left tackle, you
can actually like function a little bit more. So he's practicing,
came off. I think he's gonna play, but we'll see.
(48:20):
But this is mainly just bilow cell high spot. I
think we're at the peak of the market on the Texans.
Everyone is like, you don't want to play the Texans.
The Texans are going to win the AFC. That's your
number one signal that we're at the top of the market.
They've won six straight.
Speaker 1 (48:31):
I did just bet them to win the Super Bowl,
so stuck. He's probably right about that.
Speaker 3 (48:34):
Yeah, then they've benefited from a bunch of like a
lot of the teams they've played over the past their
six game winning you've been all been hurt. The Bills
didn't have an offensive line. Daniel Jones got hurt with
the Colts. The Chiefs had no offensive line. The Cardinals
whole team was hurt. So and four of their six
wins have come by one possession. Only one of the
six has been a playoff team. They still can't finish drives,
(48:55):
which is not ideal for a team you want to
win by three possessions. In the NFL, thirtieth in red
zone touchdown percentage. And this is also a bottom on
the Raiders. They were shut out with eighty yards last week.
The Eagles went on a seventeen play, ninety yards scoreless
drive to finish the game that took eleven minutes. That
(49:15):
was more yards than the Raiders had in the entire game.
Teams off a shutout seventy four to fifty five and
five against the spread, fifty seven and a half percent
on the road, sixty five percent, covering by over a
field goal per game. Road dogs off a shutout loss
sixty five percent historically. But this is one of my
and look, the Raiders are so bad, like it's it's bad,
(49:37):
but they've been blown out a bunch this year. Here's
what they've done after seventeen plus point losses. They lost
by one to the Bears, they should have won. They
beat the Titans by ten. They lost to the Jags
by one. They lost to the Broncos by seven and
covered shut out. Pete Carroll and Pete Carroll if you're
down seventeen this week, kicked that field goal and then
they got They lost by fourteen to the Browns. They're
(49:58):
four and one against the spread after law is this
year and one of my favorite trends. I mean, the
main reason I like this is Bilo cell High Miller
might be back, Texans have some injuries. I make it
under two touchdowns. I think we're getting over two touchdowns
because of the perception of these two teams. And one
of my favorite trends rarely comes up, but when there's
(50:19):
a double digit dog in the NFL for a second
straight week that didn't cover in the first week, past
twenty five years, fifty to twenty five against the spread,
covering by about four points per game. Why do I
like that trend? Well, usually you're you're getting a point
or two of value because no one, no one in
(50:39):
the right mind wants to bet a team, right. They
were a double digitalg the week prior they didn't cover,
which means bad team, blown out, looked awful. The next
week they're double digit dog again, which means bad team
playing another good team. So who wants to bet this
bad team at that? They saw them lose thirty one
to nothing with seventy yards. I think that's why we're
getting over two touchdowns. So yeah, I like the Raiders
(51:01):
catching their two touchdowns. Think they think this line should
be like thirteen thirteen.
Speaker 2 (51:03):
And a half.
Speaker 1 (51:04):
Okay, that was a fantastic case, but no, I will
I love the Titans this week.
Speaker 2 (51:10):
I voted the Titans easy, no case.
Speaker 4 (51:14):
I was going to see the Raiders just because I'm
cheering so hard against the Texans.
Speaker 5 (51:18):
So evan Titans, no question about it.
Speaker 3 (51:23):
Money line, money line point.
Speaker 1 (51:25):
We're going money line. Yeah, money, We're going money line favorites.
With the other two, I think I think we should
go money on.
Speaker 2 (51:30):
They've covered.
Speaker 5 (51:31):
They've covered six games this year after the worst Ats
year in NFL history. They've covered their last two against
teams under five hundred, which you know, just left to
let you know that is the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (51:41):
I touchdowns a lot. Can we do the points?
Speaker 3 (51:44):
Touchdown Titans, Ravens, Cowboys six to one at Draftings gorgeous.
Speaker 1 (51:51):
Let's ride that right there, Your two Kings and a
Queen parlay presented by Draft Kings. The Crown is yours.
That'll do it for today's episode special. Thanks to our
producers Gifford Gold, David Paynes, Statsound, Evan Abrams for breaking
some ties around here. Shout out to Stucky, his wife and.
Speaker 2 (52:09):
His new Little Burrito. Glad to have you back.
Speaker 1 (52:11):
The Favorites will return on Sunday Night, Week sixteen. A
recap catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page.
Thanks for hanging out. We'll see you next time here
on the Favorites presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 3 (52:21):
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